How to Beat the Books This Weekend! | College Football Week 5 Predictions & Best Bets | THE BLITZ

🏈 💰 Welcome to THE BLITZ, your go-to college football betting show for the entire season! Each week, Bryan Power, Ross "The Boss" Benjamin & Ralph "The Pen" Michaels break down the biggest college football matchups, providing picks, predictions, and best bets to help you stay ahead of the lines.

Oregon vs Penn State 1:45
USC vs Illinois 7:40
Ohio St vs Washington 14:37
Notre Dame vs Arkansas 18:43
Houston vs Oregon St 28:30
LSU vs Ole Miss 29:50
Duke vs Syracuse 41:35
Indiana vs Iowa 44:40
Auburn vs Texas A&M 46:40
Alabama vs Georgia 49:30
Best Bets 53:30

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
You are la. Welcome to the Blitz Free plays for
Week five in college football, coming right up to absolutely
massive games set to take place on Saturday, number six
Oregon at number three Penn State and number seventeen Alabama
at number five Georgia. We will of course be talking
about both here today, and if you are watching us
live here on the wage talk YouTube channel, start firing

(00:23):
off those questions right now, because any other game you
want us to talk about, we will be happy to do.
So all you have to do is comment down below
here to help me break down all these matchups. As always,
Ralph Michaels and Ross Benjamin, two of the very best
at wage talk dot Com. Ralph, I'm gonna go to
you first here for number six Oregon at number three

(00:43):
Penn State, Nitney Lyons head coach James Franklin. If we
all know that he comes big game, James comes up
small in these situations one and eighteen straight up against
ap top five opponents. So my question to you, somewhat sarcastically,
is how how happy is James Franklin, Ralph that Oregon's
ranked number six in the country coming into this gameas yam.

Speaker 2 (01:04):
Yeah, well, you know semantics you know to me, To me,
Oregon is clearly a top five team, and that's what's
important on the field here. You know, you look James
Franklin as a favorite, he's a bully. He's sixty four
percent in lifetime as a favorite of seven and a
half or more. But when he's between the fours in
a closely match game, he's only six and ten straight

(01:25):
up and five and eleven against the spread. But I
do want to mention this whole teams between the Nines,
when both teams are ap top ten, This goes all
the way back to twenty fifteen. Home teams are actually
seventy one percent against the spread. So that is AP
top ten teams lined between the Nines and a total

(01:46):
over forty six. That is, you know, every team, every
top ranked team moving on since that time. But I
look at this and I say, you know, Dan Lanning's
stats for Oregon have been done. To me, they are
the number one best statistical profile team on offense. Their

(02:07):
offense is averaging one hundred and ninety nine yards more
versus their opponents than their opponents that have lowed to
their other foes. Their defense is holding opponents to one
hundred and fifty five yards less than they've averaged against
other foes. Those are number eight and number ten in
the country. Oh yeah, and then the rich get richer.

(02:28):
They're getting back three players this week, which they haven't
had the last few weeks, including running back Noah Whittington.
Remember Whittington was the guy last year in the Big
twelve Big Ten championship game that ran for eighty some
yards on fourteen or fifteen carries. So he's a big
get back for them. I'm not going to be on

(02:49):
this game. I will be very excited to watch this game.
I'm not really wild about the Oregon. Oregon did a
big press release on their uniforms to match the white
out of Penn State, but to me, it is just
that until James Franklin proves to me he can coach
a team that can win a big game, I cannot
be on him. I like Oregon.

Speaker 1 (03:11):
Okay, we had an interesting comment there, ross from Jacob
Hefner in the chat Penn State wins by three hooks,
the Penn State backers and Oregon money line public loses
as well. I don't know that really threading the needle there.
Jacob is just his thought, what do you think about
this game? You know, so much focus is gonna be
on Franklin, rightly so about his lousy record of these

(03:32):
big games. But do we trust on Tay Moore, the
Oregon quarterback going on the road, because he's yet to
prove it, you know, an any of his previous stops.

Speaker 3 (03:42):
Yeah, I mean, neither one of these teams has played anybody.
I mean, I guess you could say, uh, you know,
at least Oregon played a power for a conference team
in who deep Oklahoma State. They played two actually Oklahoma
State in Northwestern, but two bottom of a barrel Power
four teams.

Speaker 4 (04:02):
And you know, I like Penn State.

Speaker 3 (04:06):
Here somewhere, I'm hearing whispered in my ear, Teddy Covers
is telling me Ross don't take Penn State the big
game against a ranked team, especially the top ten. And
he's been right up until this point. But if we
know about it, everybody else knows about it, right, And
I see the money coming in on Oregon in this matchup.

(04:28):
I like Penn State's quarterback a hell of a lot
more than I like Dante more So, I don't think
a lot of people are paying attention to that. And
also this Penn State defense has been awfully good in
their first three games, and Penn State, by the way,
three and zero and a plus six turnover differentially, so

(04:49):
both of these teams are eerily similar. I mean, you
look at Oregon there plus four in the turnover department.
They've also played outstanding defense in their first four. But
the common theme is neither team has played anybody worth
a who but Penn State at home. Everybody's gonna say,

(05:11):
we'll be hearing this James Franklin thing Brian for the
next couple of days, and I'm sure we'll hear it
on Saturday morning with all the talking heads.

Speaker 4 (05:20):
I'm going with Penn State. The hell would everybody Penn
State minus three?

Speaker 1 (05:25):
All right, little conflict here to start the program? Maybe
I would have to break the tie. I guess here
because we have one Oregon one. I don't think this
game is gonna make my card in full canner. But
I'll tell you this, guys, I'm kinda look, this is
a It's interesting because we would before the season. It
wasn't significantly different, but Penn State was favored by more.

(05:48):
This is kind of a good number relative to the
look Ahead and look Aler I agree. Ross alluded to
it that I like Alor even though he has shown
up very big and big games of the quarterback for
Penn State. But I do like him more than Dante more.
I would give a slight lean to Penn State here
in the white out. Don't think it's gonna make my card? Yes,
go ahead, Ross, That a boy, Brian, That's all I

(06:09):
was saying.

Speaker 3 (06:10):
Oh, when I say that with everybody else, I don't
mean you.

Speaker 4 (06:14):
Well, I love you.

Speaker 2 (06:16):
You know, Vegas on our side. You know, last week
we talked about LSU night games at Death Valley, I get.
I give a six point home edge Penn State white outs. Again,
I I give a five and a half point home
edge to Penn State on white out. So for those
Penn State fans, it truly is special when they have
a whiteout game.

Speaker 1 (06:36):
Yeah, we shall seek in Franklin finally win one of
these games and get the proverbial monkey off his back.
Adam one of our top commenters each and every week
here on the program. Let's stick in the big ten here, Ross,
what do you say Illinois against USC now? Last week
on the show? Correct me if I'm wrong, sir, I

(06:58):
may have misremembered here. You and I talked about when
we were talking about the the three of us were
talking about Illinois and Indiana, and I think the gen
the consensus among the three of us is like, eh,
not a great spot for Illinois, But this line is
kind of getting a little heavy on Indiana. All the
money was coming in in Indiana. Well, it turns out
if that line would have been steamed up to minus
fifty two, you still would have been okay with INDI

(07:19):
head on Saturday, because boy did they beat the doors
off Illinois.

Speaker 3 (07:23):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (07:24):
Now, Illinois is a big home dog against USC. I
can't play USC at this price. I thought for sure
this would be a smash spot on USC. Not anymore,
not a minus seven on the road. They don't win
on the road often.

Speaker 3 (07:36):
Yeah, if if you predicted that Indiana was gonna blow
out Illinois by that margin, raise your hand and now
put it down because you're a damn liar. And the
bottom line is is that Look, I think this is
a classic overreaction. This This Illinois program right now under

(07:58):
Brett Bielima has been a pre program. I think that
USC has feasted on some weaker competition. I think USC
is very good, but not to the point where they're.

Speaker 4 (08:10):
Laying this kind of number on the road.

Speaker 3 (08:11):
I look for Illinois to have a big bounce back
here at the very least, Brian, I see them keeping
this very competitive and being a one score game. So
I'm not going to have a pick on this game,
but my lean would be on take the home underdog
in this spot.

Speaker 1 (08:30):
Ralph Michael certainly knows the trends better than anyone. Ralph,
a trend that maybe you have available or something similar.
USC I believe, going back to eat where they joined
the Big Ten is oero for their last six against
the spread when favored by more than five against the
conference opponent.

Speaker 5 (08:46):
On the road.

Speaker 1 (08:47):
This is also a noon Eastern time kickoff. With this
conference expansion, we've seen that, right these West Coast teams
do better in the late night kickoffs, and then the
East Coast teams do better in the early kickoffs. What
do you think here, Ralph, USC? Obviously there's not much
value on the Trojans after what happened to Illinois last week.

Speaker 2 (09:08):
Well, you look at last year. USC went to Michigan
lost twenty seven to twenty four. They went to Minnesota
lost twenty four to seventeen, and then they played other
two road games at Washington and UCLA. I did read
in the newsletter, Brian, I don't have this stat but
it had USC as one in thirteen ats in the

(09:32):
Eastern and Central time zones. You emphasized with the new start.
That is an issue for me. If this were a
night game, I'd have no problems playing USC anywhere, but
having a nine am clock for these kind of USC kids,
that USC is still a Prima Donna school, you still
have stars, and that was always the problem. They didn't
have enough discipline. This is the kind of situation that

(09:54):
would scare me under the older jeans. We'll see how
Lincoln Riley does handle it. But I cannot get to
the Illinois side. Illinois, we think they're a defensive team
that wants to run the ball, but they allowed four
hundred and thirty eight yards Woo Duke. They allowed five
hundred and seventy nine yards last week to Indiana. When

(10:18):
you allow one thousand yards to two teams like that,
and now you have one of the top five offenses
in the country traveling to visit you, I don't think
Illinois can keep up with USC scoring. So now can
USC stop Illinois. Well, remember last week they were on
the road only one hundred and sixty one yards, the

(10:39):
week before only three hundred and fifty eight yards. So
I am not excited at all about that. I do
lean with USC team total, but the early start time
does have me not leaning with USC for the game.
I'm not going to get to the window with the
USC team total because again, if they get off to
a slow start, it's something I will look to low.

(11:00):
I bet it does come out ready to play for
a noon kickoff, goes down the field, gets some momentum
and is playing well early on their first drive, I'll
look to live bet that team total.

Speaker 1 (11:11):
I like that look a lot Ralph live betting the
team total. This is a USC offense, guys. Granted, of
course this time of year, you always have to consider
the level of competition they face. USC is number one
in yards per play on offense, averaging nine point three,
So that's a hefty number against an Illinois defense that
obviously was shredded by Indianna last week. We've got some
questions rolling in. Keep them coming, guys in the chat. Again,

(11:33):
doesn't have to be just the big games. Any game
you want to know about. If you just want us
to hopefully agree with you on your bet, send those
questions our way, and we got one all. My boy
Jay Buff is in the house here. He really likes
South Alabama and app State. Any opinions on either game.

(11:53):
I like app State against Boise State, I'll tell you
that much. Ralphi, You're raising the pen.

Speaker 2 (12:00):
My best bet today.

Speaker 1 (12:01):
Okay, there you go.

Speaker 4 (12:02):
That's right.

Speaker 2 (12:03):
Best bets coming up.

Speaker 1 (12:04):
At the end of the show, we were a half
point away from a three and oh sweep and I
was the guilty party.

Speaker 2 (12:10):
I'll be talking about that later on Ross.

Speaker 1 (12:12):
I know you know what, though, Ross got a little lucky,
so I guess we can't up with that Oklahoma safety
on his so.

Speaker 3 (12:18):
I had it all the way Brian Kelly's ass.

Speaker 2 (12:22):
That's all that matters.

Speaker 3 (12:26):
Yeah, I love Kelly, man, it's she's just been on
the other side of some of the stuff that I've
liked in recent weeks.

Speaker 4 (12:32):
But doesn't she doesn't know what she's doing, that's.

Speaker 1 (12:34):
Right, absolutely does What do you think Ross? Any thoughts
on those two games? As we go to the group
of five.

Speaker 3 (12:41):
Grass Grown then Candy capped these two games. Honestly, nothing
like they were in years past Boise. You know, I
guess they were ranked early on because of their reputation,
but that quickly got dissipated after their performance again in
South Florida and the openers.

Speaker 4 (13:01):
So in the South Ala the Sun Belt to.

Speaker 3 (13:04):
Me, I just I find that for me historically, and
I don't know be interested to hear you and Ralph's
thoughts here. Brian, you get a conference once in a
while you just are not on top of it. Just
seems that you just can't press the right buttons and
the Sun Belts that for me, so I usually stay

(13:27):
away from Sun Belt games.

Speaker 2 (13:30):
Well, I'll tell you what.

Speaker 1 (13:31):
I've had some success in the old Fun Belt before
ross myself. Of course South Alabama for those who don't know. Again,
Ralph pardon me, is gonna have his free play that
game is they visit North Texas, a North Texas team
that I think it might be a decent bet to
make get that G five spot in the College Football Playoff.
We'll see what Ralph has to say.

Speaker 4 (13:49):
A lot of what Brian, I take that back.

Speaker 3 (13:51):
During Conference USA, So yeah, between Conference USA and South
the Sun Belt, it's difficult for me. So I don't
want people chime in and correct me.

Speaker 1 (14:02):
And then with the G five. With the G five,
we talked about the G five Boise State. As you
alluded to Ross, Boise was initially the favorite to get.

Speaker 2 (14:10):
That G five spot.

Speaker 1 (14:11):
Obviously they have a tough game against South Florida. But
JE have to answer your question. I like appstot.

Speaker 2 (14:16):
I would take the points of app State against Boise
in that one.

Speaker 1 (14:19):
All right, questions continue to roll in. Star Child is
in here waiting to hear someone talk about Ohio State
and Washington because I might be on Washington in the
over He says, I have seen a lot of love
ross for Washington in the market early in the week.
I think the line might be getting a little short, though.

Speaker 4 (14:42):
I don't think so.

Speaker 3 (14:44):
It would be short, certainly if the game was being
played in Columbus, but it's not, and I think that
takes on.

Speaker 4 (14:49):
A whole new meaning.

Speaker 3 (14:51):
I don't think Ohio State is again. This is what
for me to bash a team that's been so dominant
and put together a great effort in the opener against Texas, who,
by the way, I think has been overvalued from the start.
I think this is a good spot for Washington. I
don't know they pull the outright upset, but I certainly

(15:11):
think this could be a one score game and one
that goes right down to the wire. And I would
not be shocked here if we saw an outright upset.
So my early lean here would.

Speaker 4 (15:21):
Be on the Washington Huskies at home.

Speaker 3 (15:23):
I remember this line opened at I believe it opened
at nine and a half, and it's down to eight
right now, Brian, And you're looking at that sharp money
because people aren't lining up to better against Ohio State
general public anyway.

Speaker 4 (15:37):
So I like Washington here with the points at home.

Speaker 1 (15:41):
Okay, that's what Starchild wanted to hear. Rossly you made
him happy at least, Ralph. I think I read earlier
in the week that this was just the second time
in the last twenty years. First is twenty twelve that
a top ranked team in the country was favored by
less than ten against an unranked opponent. What do you say,

(16:03):
you know Ohio State quite well. Are the buck guys
being disrespected with this line or is there something up
Julian's saying this is a tough start going across country Washington.
We talked about USC struggles on the road. Well, what Conversely,
a lot of these past the old Act twelve teams
have been quite good when welcoming in the Eastern and
Central time Zone teams at home.

Speaker 2 (16:24):
Well, it's simple for me. I like the Ohio State
side because of the defense. But there's no way I'm
gonna take a freshman quarterback playing in this type of
venue for his first road game of the season, with
a crazed crowd. It's gonna be loud there. It's going
to be exciting. You know, with Saylan on the road,

(16:47):
you know they're gonna hand the ball off. I mean
they had Donaldson, then they had Peoples, and we've seen
Bo Jackson really come up the last few weeks and
he keeps popping up that depth chart. And yes, you
have the wide receivers in Smith and Tate. I think
Smith and Tate are going to be complete decoys. Early
stretch the field, run the ball, run the ball that
Julian's saying, get comfortable in the middle, short passes, first

(17:10):
half under For me, you're getting twenty four. That's a
very fair number for me. Yes, Desween Williams has been
dynamic seven hundred and sixty yards, seventy three percent completions,
the team is averaging almost six yards per carry rushing.
But again, let's talk Colorado State, UC Davis and Washington State.
At least the young quarterback for Ohio State got to

(17:32):
face the Texas defense, so that prepares him much better
for this than it does for Desmond Williams facing the
Ohio State defense. First half under for me.

Speaker 1 (17:41):
First half under, there we go.

Speaker 5 (17:42):
I like roll.

Speaker 1 (17:43):
That's second time in a row here. You've got a
little exotic here with that lean to the USC team
total and then a first half under.

Speaker 2 (17:49):
So I like that. Guys.

Speaker 1 (17:50):
Let Washington a trendy underdog that's got some sharp money
early in the week. Let's stick with that theme here
because there's another game, a noon eastern kickoff that a
lot of our commenters want us to know about that
is Notrdre Dame and Arkansas. Boy, does this Notre Dame
defense stick? And there's gonna be a lot of points

(18:12):
on the board.

Speaker 4 (18:13):
I think.

Speaker 1 (18:13):
I mean, the total is what as of now, it
is up to sixty four and a half. Arkansas can
score ross. I see you making faces? Is there? I
assume there's something you would like to enlighten us on.
As the fighting Irish travel to Fayetteville.

Speaker 3 (18:29):
Well, I'm glad you asked, Brian, and your assumption is correct.
I think this is a great spot for Arkansas. I mean,
they're coming off two heartbreaking losses. Notre Dame was supposed
to be very experienced and very good defensively, and they've
been anything. But they got torched by Texas A and
m And again this is their first true road game

(18:54):
in a seat. Yes, first true road game in the season,
I believe, right, So Arkansas. Oh, they played at Miami,
that's right, and he took him down to the wire,
my pahone. Anyway, Having said all that, I just think
Arkansas had Look, they got caught looking ahead last week.
Memphis was a dangerous team. They had just come off

(19:16):
a heartbreaking loss against Ole Miss. Then they go to
a group of five conference team in Memphis and they
know that next they got Notre Dame coming to Arkansas. Okay,
in the game they've had circled before the season started.
So and I just think Arkansas is the player. I

(19:36):
think they're gonna do enough offensively to put Notre Dame
behind eight. Paull you know, CJ. Carr, Ralph, I'm just
not sold on him.

Speaker 4 (19:49):
I think Notre Dame made a big.

Speaker 3 (19:51):
Mistake when they let Steve Angeli transfer to Syracuse because
he wasn't going to get the job. And I think
that if you get Notre Dame behind the eight ball
where there are in obvious past situations and have to
play from behind, and I think that will be the
case in this game.

Speaker 4 (20:06):
At some point.

Speaker 3 (20:08):
They they're not as good in that situation as when
they can control the clock, run the ball, and control
the tempo of the game. Arkansas, to me, is to
play here. They opened at what six and are down
to four and a half? Give me the razorbacks at home?

Speaker 1 (20:24):
Whoa big suy. I agree with you there, Ross on
the Hogs. What do you say, Ralph? Make it three
for three? Sean, who asked the initial question, says it
seems too easy to.

Speaker 2 (20:34):
Take Notre Dame at minus four and a half. Well,
it's not that easy if you two both like the
Arkansas side. Yeah, you know, let's remember this two things
on both sides. Arkansas fumbled going in for the winning
score against the Old Myths fumbled going in for the
winning score for Memphis. They would be four and oh

(20:55):
and this line would be closer to pick you know
what I mean, it's really it's really that close. And
look at Notre Dame again. The first game against Miami,
they go down to the wire, then they lose by
one point to Texas AM. Both teams could be undefeated,
but what scares the bejeebis out of me is they
allowed Texas A and M to throw for three hundred
and sixty yards. They allowed Perdue to throw for three

(21:18):
hundred and three yards. And remember at halftime last week
against Perdue, Notre Dame was trailing on the yard age
two eighty six to two thirty one. We had that
long weather delay and all of a sudden, Purdue just
went flat and Notre Dame did continue to run the ball.
A lot easier to run the ball after weather break

(21:38):
than it is to throw the ball, and we saw
the difference there as Notre Name ended up with forty
three carries for two hundred and fifty four yards. The
problem is this, you know, Tyler Green is not that
throwing quarterback. Yes, his numbers are fined sixty four percent
of the twelve to four ratio, but again a lot
of those were pat statters against Alabama A and M
in Arkansas State. I look at this and I say

(22:02):
I don't trust Arkansas at home, I don't trust Notre
Dame on the road. And if I have to give
an opinion, I'm gonna lean over in this game. One
of my weakest opinions because I've gone back and forth,
but those are my thoughts on the game without a
strong opinion on either side or total.

Speaker 1 (22:22):
I got a strong comment there in the chef that
somebody really likes think this one could hit the eighties
and I could cur again a high total, very similar
to last week in Arkansas and Memphis. That was a
game again where the home dog was getting a lot
of interest in a game with the high total as well.
Keep those questions coming, guys. We will be getting to

(22:45):
lsu Ole Miss, one of several interesting games in the
SEC this week, but not the headliner. We'll be talking
about that just a little bit. But let's take a
brief moment here to talk about what we've got going
on this weekend here at wager talk dot com. Obviously
all three of us. It will be a busy weekend,
a lot going on, not just college football, but the NFL,

(23:07):
Major League. The final weekend on the regular season of
Major League baseball as well. Ross, why don't you talk
about what you've got cooking over at your page? Of course, guys,
that weekend Warrior Pass available in this week you can
get any of our.

Speaker 3 (23:21):
That's an absolute steal for all three of us. But
I can only speak for myself when it comes to records.
Coming off a four and oh sweep two weeks ago,
in a three and one last week, so seven and
one in college football the last two weeks thirteen and
six to start the year up over twenty six units.

(23:41):
That's nothing new with me, is I've been number one
at wager talk dot com when it comes to units
earned since it started the twenty twenty three college football season,
number one last year in both win percentage in units earned.

Speaker 4 (23:56):
Okay, not in aire my corehead.

Speaker 3 (23:59):
I have a Friday night play up right now in
the Virginia and Florida State game. I also have a
three pack up on Saturday right now in college football.
I'll have two more plays at least posted in college football,
including a five percent best bet. And I'm four and
oh with my college football best bets to start the year.

(24:22):
Last week we had Miami Florida as they covered easily
against Florida.

Speaker 5 (24:26):
Little bit Harry for a little bit in the third quarter,
but they pulled away late to get us another win
with our five percent best bets and forty nine dollars Folks,
my five percent best bets the first four weeks and
this week will be a thirty five dollars value.

Speaker 3 (24:44):
So if you think about it, you're going to get
everything that I put out on Saturday, Sunday and Monday
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on Monday. And folks, those of you who participated and
took advantage of this offer with me the last two weeks,
you're a combined fifteen and five in the NFL and

(25:04):
college football, So forty nine dollars, Ralph, even you could
afford that.

Speaker 2 (25:11):
Come on now, Ralph, please clap back at this man.

Speaker 1 (25:14):
Tell why don't you tell? I was gonna say what
I had going, but the man calls you out. So
I'm gonna give you the floor here, Ralph, talk about.

Speaker 2 (25:20):
I VEGMO my cross so you can help me with that, okay,
and you can, like you can share some of that
with me. So brother, when you know, when you're as
rich as you are, Ross and no one else. Can
you can afford anything? You? Yeah, yeah, I wish, I
wish I was riches today. This weekend, it is a

(25:41):
Saturday play eight and one on college football five percent
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again I will say this, it's actually a better value
if you want my plays, to buy the three day

(26:03):
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There's only four games, but I have two of them.
So if you are going to get mine, maybe think
about the three day All Access, which gives you have Friday,
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(26:25):
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Speaker 1 (26:31):
All right, these guys are locked and loaded, and so
am I. It was a disappointing last weekend.

Speaker 2 (26:37):
We never run from that four and four overall.

Speaker 1 (26:41):
We finished last weekend. I'm gonna say it should have
been six and two. Guys, if you caught last week's show,
you know, I gave out Miami of Ohio for free
here on the program. That looked really good for fifty
nine minutes and then they blew it at the end.
And sadly, that was not my worst loss the weekend
because yes, Dan, alexand Or I was on the LA

(27:01):
Rams on Sunday, So that was the Miami Ohio and
the LA Rams was the difference between four and four
versus six and two. Nevertheless, you go back to November
of twenty twenty three, I am number three in college
football during that time, up fifty to two point six
units over all, so we've got the long track record
of success. We will be bouncing back here this weekend

(27:25):
in both college and the NFL with a strong weekend.
So WT dot Buzz SLASHVP, make sure you're there. And yes,
that weekend Warrior Pass is something I would highly recommend.
You both have brought up Friday games, which is interesting.
We're gonna go back here, Adam Adam who I just
saw chined in with a question on Arizona versus Iowa State.

(27:46):
That will be my best bet on the show. And
if you've been watching this program for a couple of weeks,
you probably know where I'm going at that, but you'll
have to stay to the end of the show for that.
But he asked about a Friday night game, because yes,
there's a three game Friday slate here. As I scroll
through the comments, Houston MIGHTUS thirteen and a half sounds

(28:07):
seems like a bunch, But I couldn't ever take Oregon State,
is what he had to say. Yeah, it's not looking
good in Corvallis. I'll say this, Houston is a team
I bet over six and a half wins at the
start of the year. I feel pretty good about that
bet right now. Ross, I thought it was going to
take a good start, But I don't know. Do you
have any comments on this game? It does seem like

(28:27):
a lot of points to lay on the road.

Speaker 3 (28:29):
Yeah, it's there's better value on the board, you know.
Just because again, folks, I've told my clients this for
years and I'll say it again. Just because there's three
games on the board on Friday doesn't mean you have
to bet all three. Really doesn't mean you have to
bet even one, even though I do have a play
on Friday. The same thing goes for Monday night football,

(28:50):
same thing for Thursday night football. You just don't have
to make a play just because it's a limited card.
In any event, Houston better on paper, Brian, I agree,
I like your over six and a half bet. They
look to be much improved from season ago. And Oregon
State they're one of those teams are in limbo.

Speaker 4 (29:09):
You know what conference? Ardy? And why do they have
to look forward to the PAC twelve? Yes?

Speaker 3 (29:16):
But how good is the PAC twelve when you look
at the teams are adding? So again, better value on
the board for me.

Speaker 1 (29:23):
Yeah, it just humiliated in the Civil War as well.
So I mean, I mean what you're right? What does
this team to look for? It looks like a coaching
change might need to be made in their future as
well with the Beavers. All right, let's go back to
our rundown guys. Some of the big games that we've
got on the docket. Lsu Ole Miss. This is a game, Ralph,
that has been a rivalry that has been dominated by

(29:46):
the home team. I believe seven straight covers by the
home team if I remember that correctly. The Old Lane
Train a short home favorite here. We laughed last week
about how the computers they seem to really love this
Old Miss team. I'll be honest, I kind of like
all this here too. Lshues wins have not aged that

(30:07):
well have they. This is a team that they beat Clemson.
Everyone said what a win that was. Well have you
seen Clemson recently? Then they beat Florida. Well they beat
Florida because DJ Lagway kept who's the Florida quarterback obviously
kept throwing the ball to them five interceptions. Florida could
have won that game. And we see how Florida looks now.
So what do you think here, Ralph? It's a tricky

(30:29):
handicap a game that a lot of people want to
know about. Lsu Ole miss home team has had the
engineers past. What about Saturday in Oxford?

Speaker 2 (30:40):
Well, for us old school guys, we know the old
adage you don't lose your starting job to an injury.
Well we'll see that may not be true for all this.
You know, we saw the quarterback had heard after a
couple of games, and boy, you know, have they steffed up?
So between cannibalists and Simmons, I'm not sure who's going
to get to start. I think they stayed with the

(31:00):
hot hand. You know, may not be politically correct, but
it doesn't matter if you're a head coach. He's getting
paid millions of dollars to make that decision, so he'll
make the decision that is best for this team. But
I agree with you. I think old Missus offense has
looked better than LSU's has. You look at LSU against Florida. Now, again,

(31:20):
this is a misleading stat because three hundred and sixteen
yards means that you just didn't get many opportunities to
make long drives because Lagway kept giving you the ball
in short fields. But they still only put up twenty points.
I bet I didn't look in the database. I bet
if you had five interceptions, I bet you find very

(31:41):
few teams that only score twenty points with getting five interceptions.
I'm going to guess most of them are in the
thirties or forties. So to me, that's a negative performance.
You look against Clemson three hundred and fifty four yards,
yes it was on the road, that's a negative performance.
You host Louise the end of TEP three hundred and
sixty five yards three point eight yards per carry, that's
a negative performance. The only negative I see on Mississippi

(32:04):
was the five hundred and twenty six yards they gave
up to Arkansas, and that was with two hundred and
twenty yards rushing in three hundred and five through the pass.
So that was just a game that was ugly. But
they're home for a third straight game, LSU traveling for
the first time since the Clumson game. I'm with you, Brian,
I lean old miss and you think Roth can give

(32:24):
us a sweet Well.

Speaker 1 (32:26):
We shall see. By the way, Ross, I don't know
if this is gonna factor you're into your handicap. Probably not,
but I don't know. If you saw early Lane Kiffin's
daughter is dating to.

Speaker 2 (32:36):
That, Yeah, yeah, yeah, I.

Speaker 1 (32:40):
Feel about that. If I was the old Layne train,
can the Lane train make his daughter feel bad?

Speaker 3 (32:45):
Yeah? I could use a couple adages when it comes
to that, but we probably kicked off the air and
I wouldn't be allowed to do any more show, So I'm.

Speaker 4 (32:54):
Gonna leave it alone.

Speaker 2 (32:55):
Oh.

Speaker 3 (32:55):
I hope you can appreciate that, Brian, But in any event,
I think, Look, I'm gonna have to disagree with you guys.
Number one, here's the real reason.

Speaker 4 (33:08):
Why I'm going to disagree with you.

Speaker 3 (33:09):
Because I picked LSU before the season started at plus
fourteen hundred to win the National Championship. I also picked
them at plus seven hundred to win the SEC. Now,
Rolph makes some good points. You do too, Brian, But
the bottom line is if ole Miss is going to
be able to win this game, they're gonna have to

(33:30):
do it in a one dimensional phase because you can't
run the ball against this LSU defense. They've allowed eight
nine yards or less in all four games, less than
three yards per carry, and I know the competition.

Speaker 4 (33:44):
Leaves a lot well.

Speaker 3 (33:45):
Clemson in Florida, Okay, they haven't lived up the snuff,
but I'm sure you guys would agree. They're not terrible teams,
you know, and ole Miss. Look, they beat two Lane
last week and impress style. I actually sat on the
show last week. I thought that was a good spot
for TWU Lane, but boy, they proved me wrong. They

(34:08):
barely get by Arkansas forty one thirty five at home,
a game they could have lost, they think, Ralph, you
mentioned it, Arkansas fumbled the ball going in uh for
the go ahead score. And then they win at Kentucky
thirty to twenty three.

Speaker 4 (34:22):
I'm not you know.

Speaker 3 (34:23):
I'm going to talk about Kentucky later, but I don't
think they're a very good team.

Speaker 4 (34:27):
So I'm gonna go with LSU here.

Speaker 3 (34:29):
I I'm sorry, guys, one of us has to be right.

Speaker 1 (34:34):
Well, hey, you know often we always they always joke
on whether it's this show, any show when everyone's in agreement.
Well that's when sometimes it might you know, some people say, oh,
this is a situation where everyone should be agreed. Ralph,
you brought up a great point though about you know,
the LSU Florida game, LSU getting those five interceptions and
only scoring twenty points. Remember one of those was a
pick six too, so that he speaks even more poorly

(34:57):
about their offense. Let's see if the Lane Train can
win a bit one. Uh, guys, I know everybody wants
to know about Alabama and Georgia. I promise we're gonna
get to that game closer to the end of the show.
But we have some questions coming back in a game
we talked about at the outset was Penn State and Oregon,
and what do I good buddies, Joey Cheese has jumped
in the chat, and I always love how Cheese gets

(35:17):
aggressive here.

Speaker 2 (35:18):
He wants to go alt lining on Penn State.

Speaker 1 (35:21):
He loves the Nitney Lions in this spot minus thirteen
and a half plus two eighty even hitting us with
the eyeball emoji.

Speaker 4 (35:28):
There.

Speaker 1 (35:29):
You guys can go back to the start the show
to see our breakdown here. I don't know if you
guys want to add that. I mean, we talked about
the Penn State ross you you said you and I
were kind of the two that like Penn State here,
what do you think about alt lining here? Can big games?

Speaker 2 (35:42):
Can small game James be that good?

Speaker 1 (35:45):
Or is that Yeah?

Speaker 4 (35:46):
Yeah, I had to him.

Speaker 3 (35:48):
He must have got it already the viewer, so that's
why he loves Penn State so much. But in any event, yeah,
I mean, I have nothing more to add than I
think the home field advantage is going to come into
play here. And Ralph brings up a good point about
the whiteouts, and everybody in the country who's a better
who knows anything about college football knows the lack of

(36:09):
success that James Franklin has had against top five, top
ten teams. So you're not enlightened us with those points.
I think that he puts that behind him in this
game and his team comes up big in a revenge spot. Besides,
so ralf to you buddy.

Speaker 4 (36:30):
On the line.

Speaker 2 (36:31):
You know, just if you like something on the ALLT line,
that's fine, but make sure you're gonna win if they
win and cover, make sure you're still winning money. I
have no problems with you splitting that are taking a
portion of the ALLT line. But if you really like
Penn State that much, don't give away a winner to
try to get cute for a huge winner.

Speaker 4 (36:50):
Yeah, it's called greed.

Speaker 1 (36:53):
Absolutely. All right, guys, let's keep the questions coming in
the chat again. Georgia Alabama still come. We will be
definitely getting that. But there's other games you want to
know on Sean here had threw a couple at us
go to the Big Twelve here? Sincey Kansas or Kelly
Stewart's k State against uc F Ross, I believe you

(37:16):
had a cop I'll tell it. I think the Big
twelve is interesting. I have Texas tech head and shoulders
above the rest of this league right now. I don't
know if you guys want to comment on that, but
after the big win they had in Salt Lake City,
they look like the team to beat in this conference. Ralph,
either of those games or Ross, I'll throw you first. Actually, Ross,
either of those games peak your interest.

Speaker 4 (37:37):
Okay, repeat the games again. I'm sorry, Brian.

Speaker 1 (37:40):
Sincy, Kansas or k State.

Speaker 3 (37:42):
You see, Yeah, I would have loved Kansas in this
spot when I saw the opener and then I think
I'm missing something because it went from six to four
and a half. And when that happens, I do further
evaluation and then I say, you know, I'm just gonna
leave it alone.

Speaker 4 (37:59):
And that's the case there and the other game involving
I'm sorry, Rolf or Brian once again.

Speaker 1 (38:07):
Kansas State UCF.

Speaker 4 (38:08):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (38:10):
I talked about this on wager Talk today yesterday that
I thought this was a fishy line. I mean, it
opened that six with Kansas State being a favor. You
got a one in three team against a four and
oz team, and a one in three team, who, by
the way, is zero and three against FBS opponents, is

(38:30):
the favorite by a touchdown. And then Kelly brought up
a good point that you know, unfortunately UCF lost one
of their assistant coaches earlier this week in tragic fashion.
So it's emotional thing going on there with UCF. But

(38:51):
if that didn't occur, I would really like Kansas State
in a spot because if you guys know anything, about
me when it looks too good to be true, which
UCF getting the points does as an undefeated team against
a team that's zero and three against FBS competition. Not
only that, the one win Kansas State was against North
Dakota and they needed a last.

Speaker 4 (39:11):
Minute touchdown to get.

Speaker 3 (39:12):
A ton So this is a game that originally I
like Kansas State, but I stayed away because.

Speaker 4 (39:19):
Kelly talked me into it. Honestly, she made a great point.

Speaker 3 (39:23):
And you can never discount emotion when it comes to
handicap in college football.

Speaker 1 (39:27):
No, that's why we have these conversations. We hope there's
a lightening for you guys as they are for us,
the handicappers. Ralph an he takes on these two Big
twelve matchups here, is there anything that you wanted to
talk about there?

Speaker 2 (39:39):
My power ratings have the game of pick between Kansas
State and u CF. So there's only one way I
could go. I'm not getting to the window, and you
know ross it really depends on the coaching staff and
the upper leadership of the players to know if that
emotion is going to hurt them or help them, they
may come out and motivate this game. Yeah, the thing

(40:00):
for the coach, so you know, you just really don't
know that to you see them on the field. So
there are times that they can be desponded, or there
are times where they can rally around that and turn
it into a vibe and say, hey, we're an underdog
and we're undefeated. This is embarrassing, so who knows what's
going to happen. I am not getting the window with it.
But again, with a six point difference in my power ratings,

(40:21):
that's the second or third biggest I have this week.
And sometimes you have injuries and like if a quarterback
gets injured in one game, I don't change my power
ratings for that one game because it's going to revert
back the next game. But there's no major injuries for
UCF or Case State that has affected any of the
key players. So it's getting to the point now where
we're four games into the season or three games into

(40:43):
the season, that I start putting much more faith in
my power ratings, where those first two weeks with the
transfer portals, I just write down the numbers and don't
even pay attention to them. Now they start becoming part
of my handicapping repertoire. All right, We've got a question
from jab I need an under on my card? What
game are you attending me?

Speaker 1 (41:02):
I will not be at any deity a Live Jay
buff this weekend if you want it under though, I
think an under that I would look at sticking in
the Big twelve as Utah and West Virginia. Obviously, with
the concern at quarterback for Guita, I think that could
be an undergame. But the market has hit that quite
a bit as well. All right, one more game and
then we're going to finish out with the more sec talk.

(41:25):
Du talk about it. Injury. You mentioned Steve Angelly earlier,
Ross injured Syracuse.

Speaker 4 (41:32):
Yeah, that hurts with no pun intended.

Speaker 1 (41:36):
Yeah, yeah, this is a hard game to handicap obviously
with that injury, Duke Syracuse.

Speaker 3 (41:42):
Yeah, Ricky Collins, highly touted former LSU recruit, went to LSU,
played very limited. There wasn't crazy about when he came
in the game last week, sort of killed all the
offensive momentum Syracuse had established and they win at Clemson.
You know, the coaching staffs high on him. The offensive

(42:03):
quarter quarterbacks coach who coached in the NFL says he's
got as good as arms a lot of guys in
the NFL right now. So again, we know live arms
are you know, that's talent, But how they perform on
the field with the live arm is another story. It's
a game I'm going to steer away from. I think
Duke is better than what they've shown so far in

(42:23):
terms of record wise, and Syracuse can move the ball.
I would love Syracuse in this spot. They would probably
be somewhere around a one to two point favorite. With
Angelly at home, I think again, correct me if I'm wrong, Ralph,
But without Angelly, I'm going to stay away from the game.
And I don't trust Duke laying points on the road

(42:46):
against a team that's riding a little bit of momentum
right now, having won three in a row.

Speaker 1 (42:51):
Yeah, and remember, guys, Duke was on my card last year.
That was a winner, but they were out gained by
NC State. They were down in a whole early. Ralph
Kelly has shim in with her talk about Kansas State
says they're not tough enough to win and cover spoken
like a fan of a team that has been downgraded
in more than just about any team of the country.

Speaker 4 (43:09):
Here.

Speaker 1 (43:10):
But Ralph, you want to talk to Syracuse.

Speaker 2 (43:12):
You look at dude plus four turnovers again last week.
Anytime you have that, you know you're gonna get out
gained and you're gonna win the game. You know, it
seems it seems like a stupid play to bet the under.
But again, you have a new quarterback who, by the way,
was six of thirteen for forty six percent last week
when he came in. Ross said he really struggled a

(43:33):
four point nine YPA. But you know, Duke's defense allowed
four twenty six to Tulane and five thirty five to
NC State. But I wouldn't want to go over with
you know, with Menza being on the road and with
Collins making his first start. So if I had to
give an opinion, I'm gonna flip it out again. The
first half under. For me, I think Syracuse really tries

(43:55):
to establish the run early. They ran the ball thirty
eight times against Clemson for one hundred and fifty five yards,
and against Connecticut, you know that was the game they trailed,
so they only ran fifty twenty nine times and ran
fifty three. But if you look at their first half numbers,
they've gotten behind and they've had the throw to play
ketchup early in the game. First quarter, first halves they

(44:17):
do try to establish the runs. So either first quarter
or first half under would be my lean.

Speaker 1 (44:22):
Okanks another good lean there, I like it. Indiana, Iowa,
we have a question. This is just like USC Illinois
right where I mean India. You know the values on
the home dog. You would think here Indiana absolutely tattoos Illinois.
Now they're laying a big number. You know, Kirk Ferny's
tough to beat at home. It's always ugly with Iowa.
Kelly has responded with Iowa exclamation point. I think it

(44:45):
would be home dog or pass for me in that one.
If either of you guys have anything to share about
that game, real quick, either of you an Iowa hosting
Indiana otherwise moved to the SEC.

Speaker 2 (44:58):
With Iowa last Friday night. They were a four star
release and everyone was bashing Kronkowski. You know what I
mean those first two games he had. But you know,
in my ride up last week, I said, this guy
started fifty five games in South Dakota State. He did
his experienced quarterback, he just got off the horrible start. Well,
they still only had three hundred and forty six yards,
but they did control the ball better and drive the

(45:20):
ball better with twenty two first downs. I'm with you,
Brian to me, coming off that that franchise type win
on national TV at home score winning sixty three to ten,
and now going on the road for your first road game,
let's all wave to the kids in the hospital because
I will be celebrating there.

Speaker 1 (45:42):
We go, Uh, Ralph or Ross? Pardon me?

Speaker 4 (45:46):
Ross?

Speaker 1 (45:46):
Yes, sure, when I came.

Speaker 3 (45:47):
From Yeah, I agree with I agree with Ralph. I
just think it's going to be an overreaction from the
general public this week after what Indiana did uh against Illinois.
I else say, it's similar to what we discussed would
Illinois in USC Like you said, Brian and I you know,
I just think that Iowa is a much better offensive
team that they've been in years past. I mean before

(46:10):
we were used to fourteen to ten, thirteen to ten.
I mean, they beat Rutgers last week thirty eight, twenty
eight on the road, and they put up some decent
offensive numbers with all things considered with their offensive struggles
in past years. So I think this is a good play.
I think the home underdog here is the value in
this spot.

Speaker 1 (46:31):
Okay, let's go to the SEC. Not Alabama Georgia just yet. Guys,
We're gonna do Texas anam Auburn normally Auburn. This is
a team that's competed. They were unlucky not to cover
last week against A and M. It's a penalties go
against them, obviously, the last safety cost them. But AY
and M's off a buy. I believe in this A
and M team, Ralph, So I'm actually tap dancing away

(46:54):
from the underdog in this one, Auburn. As they go
down to College Station. Before the season, people caught the
preseason version of the Power Five. I said A and
M over eight and a half wins plus one point fifty.
It's another win total. I'm feeling pretty good about right now,
especially after that went over to order.

Speaker 2 (47:12):
Yeah, you know, I do a Friday morning show down
in Alabama, and up until last week, I have picked
Auburn wrong seven straight weeks. Now, I did pick Oklahoma
last week, but that I really deserve to win that
game to snap that streak. It's could have been eight
straight Auburn games that I've had. Ross mentioned it about

(47:34):
teams that I just don't read. Right, Auburn is it
for me? I'm going to pass. And I'm not even
kidding I right now am just not even looking at
Auburn games. And the host to my radio show laugh
at me every Friday morning when I give up my
Auburn picked. They're on their phones. They can't wait to
bet enough. As soon as I say one team, they
bet the other side.

Speaker 1 (47:55):
What do you well, all right, he didn't give you
anything to go against there, Ross, What do you think
an M and Auburn?

Speaker 4 (47:59):
That's a great story or elf? Anyway?

Speaker 3 (48:01):
Yeah, I just look, here's a perfect example of you
people who cry and cry fixes when you lose a
game like last week and the manner in which Auburn lost.
Now I'm not lost, but not covered. It's a six
it's a six point game or five point game with

(48:22):
less than a minute ago, and you give up a
safety and you win the game by half a point.

Speaker 4 (48:27):
Remember the ones you win like that, folks?

Speaker 3 (48:30):
Yes, because they tell people all the time, they always
cry me Ross, I'm always on the wrong side of
these fluke finishes or the fixes that goes on.

Speaker 4 (48:39):
There's no fixes, folks. It's the bottom line is this.
You forget the ones you win like that.

Speaker 3 (48:46):
I don't and I'm not gonna apologize for winning a
game like that, Brian, because you.

Speaker 4 (48:52):
Know we lose games like that along the way as well.

Speaker 3 (48:55):
I'm a firm believer those games all even out over
the long haul. You know you'll get most people say, no,
that's not correct, Ross. Trust me, you just don't remember
the ones you win like that. Uh So, And with
all that being said, I'm going to pass on this game.

Speaker 2 (49:12):
Okay, let's get to Alabama and Georgia.

Speaker 1 (49:15):
And by the way, the only thing I'll say about that,
Ross is if you block a field goal at the
end of the game, guys don't return. Right there, we go,
all right, Kelly Vegas with some nice comments there, Yes
about the Iowa tradition waving to the kids at the hospital.
We are now before guys, our best bets on the
show are free plays are coming up. But we have

(49:37):
to break down a big one before that. And it
is number seventeen Alabama against number five Georgia Kirby Smart
and Georgia longest home win streak in the country and
they are only laying three bucks. They are against the
team Ralph that they have not had success about it.

(49:57):
Alabama has I believe won nine of them last ten meetings,
a majority of them coming as underdogs. So you know,
this is a very similar handicap to me as Oregon
and Penn State. I know Alabama has the loss to
Florida State, but that's a loss that may age well
moving forward. Georgia meanwhile, kind of like Penn State, they've

(50:22):
been playing with their food. They haven't covered have they
just been holding everything back. This is a tough handicap
because they don't lose between the hedges. Georgia, but Alabama
to me might be the better team.

Speaker 2 (50:36):
Brian, Alabama is the better team. I haven't power rated
even I'll take Tyger Simpson over Gunner Stockton. I'll take
the Bama defense over the Georgia defense. They're rush attacks
pretty even. But let's remember that Bama gets back Cam
Miller and gets back Keenan on the defensive line. He's
probably their best defensive player. So they're getting two stars

(50:58):
back in this week.

Speaker 1 (50:59):
It's for me, all right, Ross, what about you Alabama
and Georgia. Obviously everyone in the chat wanted to know
our opinions on this one. Yep, Ralph says, Bama, what
do you say?

Speaker 3 (51:11):
Georgia is a sucker pick oh. In my opinion, you
know what, do they win forty eight in a row
at home? Brian, You're only a three point favorite. I
listened to the odds maker folks. They know a hell
of a lot more than the polls do. Georgia also
very lucky to come away with a win against Tennessee.
Tennessee missed a chip shot field goal at the end

(51:33):
of regulation time, they win the game by three in overtime.
I think I agree with Ralph. This kid Simpson seems
like he's getting better every week. And also, I mean,
you look at the game against Florida State, he really
didn't perform that badly, and the last two games he's
really come on. And I'm not crazy about gunderstock Thon either.

(51:53):
So I think Georgia is an overrated team at this
point and it's I think they're gonna be exposed within
the SEC this year. So that's my opinion.

Speaker 4 (52:05):
Guy.

Speaker 1 (52:05):
Those are two strong takes for my colleagues, Ralph and Ross.
There on the Alabama side, just to be exact, to
get the numbers right, it is thirty three good secutive
home wins for Georgia, but Alabama has beaten Georgia nine
of the last ten, the last three as an underdog.

Speaker 2 (52:24):
Look out, guys, I'm gonna make it three for three.

Speaker 1 (52:26):
I like the Crimson Tide to give me the points
in this one. So there's your complete run on all
the big games we have covered. If there is some
game that has somehow slipped through the cracks in your opinion,
I guess what. You have a couple minutes left to answer,
But we are now going to get into our free
plays for the show. We're each gonna give you one

(52:46):
best bet here on the program. Last week, as I
said at the outset, we went two and one doing
this for the first time, and we were very close
to three and zero. Ralph, I'm gonna let you go
first because yours was the best of the lot. You
had Troy against Buffalo. It doesn't look good early, but
then they storm back and win the game outright with

(53:07):
a backup quarterback. So a great call there by you.
What do you have this week?

Speaker 2 (53:15):
Well, I love the sun Belt even more now that
Ross hates it. So hey, let's come back. Let's go
back to the Sun Belt and Ross, let me ask you,
does this line make sense to you?

Speaker 4 (53:25):
No, it doesn't. Norton doesn't.

Speaker 3 (53:26):
I mean, especially your win last week. They overcame a
seventeen point fourth quarter deficit.

Speaker 4 (53:32):
If I'm not mistaken.

Speaker 2 (53:34):
Yeah, well North Texas is four. No, South Alabama is
one and three. So the line being twelve or twelve
and a half. Does that make sense to you?

Speaker 3 (53:41):
Are we talking North Texas or are we talking South Alabama?

Speaker 2 (53:45):
North Texas versus South Alabama this week?

Speaker 3 (53:48):
Okay, all right, so yeah, no, it doesn't make sense
to me. And when that happens again, I go with
the adage rolph that if it looks too good to
be true, more times than not it is.

Speaker 2 (53:59):
Well, this is my biggest power rating difference. I have
this power rated. I think North Texas should only be
a three point favorite. Yes they beat Lamar fifty one nothing.
Yes they beat Western Michigan, but they only won by
three on the road against a pitiful Western Michigan team.
They beat Washington State by fifty nine. Why they were

(54:19):
plus five turnovers and then they beat Army. They got
out gained and it went to overtime. They haven't had
a good win yet. You look at South Alabama. They
beat Morgan State, no big deal, lose the two lane
by three, not a bad loss. They were minus one
turnover lose to Auburn by sixteen, only out gained by
twenty seven yards, and they were minus two turnovers. And

(54:41):
last week it was pitiful. They were one hundred and
twenty six yards to the positive, but they were minus
three turnovers. North Texas. The only reason they are four
to OZHO is their plus eight turnovers. South Alabama. The
only reason they're one in three is that they're minus
six turnovers the last three games. Now you could say, well,
that's because Davenport throws a lot of picks and Messa

(55:04):
maker has a ten ratio. But I think now that
they're going back on the road, they're getting things a
little bit settled. South Alabama covers this game. South Alabama.
Mike Pool the outright upset. So I am gonna they
are likely gonna make my card. I will bet South
Alabama plus the points, and to steal a little line
from VR, I will be sprinkling something on the money

(55:25):
line with the Jaguires this week.

Speaker 1 (55:27):
All right, there he goes show. Best bet from Ralph
Michaels is South Alabama plus the points against North Texas. Ross.
You were also correct with your show best bet last week,
as you joked at the outset of the program, you
had it the whole way with Oklahoma against Olivard getting
the late safety to cash the winning ticket. What game

(55:48):
you're looking at today, though.

Speaker 3 (55:50):
Yeah, I'm looking at the South Carolina Kentucky game game
that will be played in Columbia, South Carolina right now,
South Carolina, I believe it's a six point favorite, correct, Brian.

Speaker 4 (56:02):
I don't look at the update, But in.

Speaker 3 (56:03):
Any event, South Carolina, you're looking at a team that
has really vastly underachieved this year. You're looking at a
team that has really struggled offensively this year. They haven't
yet to reach the three hundred totally yard barrier on
offense this season. Boy, oh boy, if they don't wake

(56:24):
up in this spot, South Carolina fans, they're never gonna
wake up because Kentucky could be had defensively, usually a
very good defensive team Kentucky and lacks a lot of offense.
But this year, I mean, you look at Kentucky their
last two games, about four hundred and fifty five yards
Oh Miss. Not a big deal there, because Oh Miss
is going to move the ball on anybody. However, four

(56:46):
hundred and sixty one yards last week Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan.
So South Carolina two and two, coming up back to
back losses against Vandy Missouri. They killed themselves with turnovers
against Vandy, even though I said on the show that
I thought Vandy was a much better team. But Missouri

(57:08):
also undefeated. So you lose a two undefeated teams, two
ranked teams. And I just think that I like what
I saw from last week. They fought hard in the
twenty nine to twenty loss at Missouri. They were right
there until the end. They covered as a ton point dog.
I just think we're finally gonna see South Carolina get

(57:28):
over the three hundred yard barrier. And I think Kentucky
has a hard time moving the ball here on the road.

Speaker 4 (57:34):
I think Kentucky is not a good team.

Speaker 3 (57:36):
I know that they played oh Miss tough at home,
but again, South Carroy oh Miss, you're gonna be as
much as oh Miss can move the ball on anybody, Brian.
They also you can move the ball on oh Miss
if you're even a decent offense. So I am going
to go with South Carolina here, much to Kelly chagrin,
actually minus five and a half over over Kentucky.

Speaker 1 (58:00):
Yeah, I was gonna say, we're starting to see some
five and a half's pop shop around. As always, guys,
get that best available line again. We were very close
to going three and all with the best bets on
the show last week. I blew it because well I
didn't blow it because I wasn't playing for Miami Ohio.
But despite losing their starting quarterback, their starting center, their
top cornerback, they were still winning my two touchdowns in

(58:22):
the fourth quarter. And guess what they didn't cover because
they fumbled the ball in the red zone when they
could have just simply kicked the game winning field goal.
Of course, UNLV, very fortunate UNLV team recovers that fumble,
drives down and they kicked the game winning field goal,
win by three, and my plus two and a half
ticket on Miami went up in flames. But we're gonna

(58:44):
do better this week, guys. And for my free play,
I'm taking a look at Arizona at Iowa State. Two
weeks ago on this very program, I gave you three
teams that I said were overrated and would not finish
the season ranked in the top twenty five. One of
those teams was the a F four Meat mentioned South
Carolina game. Cocks have lost back to back games and
tumbled out of the rankings like Ralph's. Like Ross said,

(59:05):
doesn't mean that South Carolina can't bounce back this week.
It just means that South Carolina wasn't as good as
they're rating two weeks ago. I think the last two
results have bear that out. The second overrated team I
gave you was Illinois. We talked about what happened to
them last week, lost sixty three ten to Indiana a line.
I dropped to number twenty three and or six and
a half point home dogs this week to usc That

(59:26):
brings me to the third team I mentioned two weeks
ago that was overrated, number fourteen Iowa State. Now, I
understand the Cyclones are four and oh guys, but let's
look at those four wins, now, shall we? Kansas State,
they've turned out to be a dumpster fire. Iowa State
only won by three over in Ireland and was actually
outgained in that game. South Dakota was Iowa State second win.

(59:47):
That's an FCS team that's lucky out to be one
and three Iowa. That was another coin flip game for
Iowa State they went on a last second field goal,
and then Arkansas State two weeks ago. Cyclones could have
lost that game outright as three touchdown favorites if not
for some favorable officiating. And remember, Arkansas State just got
beat by Kennisas State last week. So sorry, Matt Campbell,

(01:00:09):
I think your team is a fraud. I'm gonna take Arizona,
who's a perfect three to zero against the spread, plus
the six and a half. Here notes Arizona also faced
Kansas State this year, just like Iowa State did. Unlike
Iowa State, Arizona was not lucky to win that game.
As a matter of fact, they outgained Kansas State for
twelve to one to ninety three, a lot more lopsided
than the final score of twenty three to seventeen. They'll

(01:00:30):
tell you Arizona's defense, guys, much improved, number four in
the nation and yards per play allowed. This is a
program four to zero against the number off of by
the last three seasons. Yes, Iowa State's off of bye
end at home not enough to win by margin. Here,
give me Arizona plus the points, and yes, sprinkle a
little bit on the money line. There you have it.

(01:00:53):
The blitz squad ride on your screen. Ross Benjamin going
South Carolina minus five and a half versus Kentucky. Ralph
Michaels will be taking the thirteen with South Alabama against
North Texas and i Brian power Am taking the six
and a half with Arizona against Iowa State. You want
to roll them all together, get a final price of

(01:01:13):
plus five ninety. So there you have it, show best
bets in the books. Guys, I hope you've enjoyed the program.
Remember this is very important here, very important. If you
like this content, please smash that like button. We appreciate that,
and do not forget to click subscribe down below. That
always is very important as well. One more time, guys,

(01:01:36):
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(01:01:59):
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Speaker 3 (01:02:11):
Yeah, and I will have a five percent best bet
on Saturday as well. Like Brian alluded to, it's not
up yet, but it will be shortly. And three games
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(01:02:32):
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Speaker 4 (01:02:49):
Football in the NFL forty nine dollars. Folks, I went
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Speaker 3 (01:02:56):
And coming off with four and oh sweep in the
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Speaker 1 (01:03:03):
Ralph? I'll give you the final word.

Speaker 2 (01:03:06):
Well, Ross, can I borrow some money so I can
buy my package to give me some extra money. Oh,
I trailed Roth all last year in college football, I'm
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I'm trailing them on the promos. So all I do
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Speaker 1 (01:03:44):
That will do it For another edition of the Blitz,
Join us again next Thursday Live I have one pm
Eastern as we'll be breaking down all of the Week
six college football matchups. But until then, thank you for
tuning in and let's cash sub tickets