October 25, 2025 • 45 mins
Looking for college football picks and predictions for today? We have you covered! We have an absolutely loaded betting slate with College Football & UFC on tap for today. We discuss what the market moves have been and where can we take advantage to win.
Join Kelly Stewart, Gianni the Greek, Ross Benjamin and Bryan Power as they give their best picks and critical steam moves! Drop your questions in the chat to have them answered during the live stream!
Join Kelly Stewart, Gianni the Greek, Ross Benjamin and Bryan Power as they give their best picks and critical steam moves! Drop your questions in the chat to have them answered during the live stream!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Of that.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
Welcome to Wager Talks Last Call.
Speaker 3 (00:03):
We're gonna have a shorter show today, as you can
tell because Ka plays Ku right off the top of noon,
and I got places to be and people to see.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
You know who else has got places to be and
people to see. Yanni the Greek.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
We're gonna bring him right and and then after he
gets done, we're gonna go over some of the needs
from Art to Cason from the Westgates Super Book. Both
guys are on a time constraint this morning because the
UFC is basically underway right now. Vre kind of get
into that first. Let anybody know what you've got going
on as far as UFC. I know this is a
college football show, but with these fights starting here, I
(00:36):
think right now, actually, yep, we need to kind of
get things underway for everyone.
Speaker 4 (00:39):
Oh yeah, I'll share some winners with you, guys.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
We just coming off of a hit two out of
three in college football last night plus a plus one
fifty on the Toronto Blue Jays. So coming into this
weekend on fire and first UFC bet we had was
a three percent on a plus three fifty.
Speaker 4 (00:56):
That just cash.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
So we're starting off the UFC Up ten units. Really
good start for Saturday. Here's what I got left for you. Okay,
what else do I have? Rebeccy Klein under two and
a half, that's a plus money total for you, Park
Alex CroV under two and a half, got to lay
one twenty. There, there's a two totals for you. I'll
(01:18):
give you one more total over four and a half.
In the comin event Dern and Janderoba. And here's a
couple signs for you, Alexander Rakick. I laid minus one
ten on Rankick Mizuki. I took plus three fifty, but
that's already started. Almeida. I like Almeida. Anything less than
minus two hundred. I think that's the sign I gave
(01:38):
out McKenzie. Dern it about minus one forty. She's up
to minus one sixty sixty five. I think, so some
of the value has been extracted. And finally in the
main event, don't do it. I know Aspinall's gonna win
this fight, but it's a terrible bet. He should not
be this big of a favorite over Seio Gone. Anything
at plus three hundred or better is a great bet
on Gone, one of those great bets that it's probably
(02:00):
not going to cash, but you know, going in you're
getting the best of it.
Speaker 4 (02:04):
He should not be as big of a dog.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
The fact that he opened as the favorite against John
Jones tells you everything you need to know.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
The value side is the under dog.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
But again, Aspinall's probably gonna win this fight, but our
job is to place good bets.
Speaker 4 (02:18):
What's gonna happen is gonna happen. Mazooki wasn't supposed.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
To win her fight either at plus three fifty, but
she got it done for us. So that's MMA for today.
I gave you pretty much the card top to bottom,
and we got a lot of college football cal I
have a what's good is I have my card already
in there, and I've been very selected today. I think
I only got like five four percent plays in there,
so we were really able to narrow down the strongest
(02:42):
positions and my five percent. I like it even more
today than I did three days ago. So hopefully it's
a big, big weekend for us because the NFL is
good tomorrow too. But let's call college football. What do
you want to get into?
Speaker 3 (02:53):
Yeah, let's get into it. Actually I said I was
gonna wait and release Art but let's go because I
like talking about it together, either one after the other
or whichever order.
Speaker 5 (03:03):
So let me give you.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
He sent me a ton he said, cal, I'm really sorry.
He was like, we are shorthanded with the UFC, but
here's what we need. Biggest needs North Carolina, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Minnesota.
The number one need I was floored is Alabama. And
I said, Art, Art, Art, Art, I need you to
(03:23):
back it up here. I was like, I know you're busy,
but when you get a second answer this question, because
everyone is gonna go what Alabama. You look on John
Ewing's page, you look on Ben Fox's page, all these
guys that report from these other sports books, and they're
all saying, you know that it's completely lopsided. Eighty plus
percent of the tickets are on Bama. And here's what
Art said. We booked him to need Bama, so we
(03:44):
took money at thirteen and a half. Thirteen and twelve.
I thought that was really interesting. Now we're at the
market price of eleven, so very interesting that they are
taking a position there on Alabama side.
Speaker 4 (03:56):
YEP.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
And Bama's been one of those teams that we've been
talking about being on the value because they lost that
game early in the season, and you know, once you
get a loss in college football, you're out of the
top five, out of the top ten even And because
that you were able to make some money betting an
undervalued Alabama team. So it looks like Westgate is high
on Alabama like I am. In fact, power rating wise,
(04:17):
I think I have them second or third in my
power ratings. So I agree with that. Here's what you
got to remember with when you talk the percentages and
ticket account and money bet it's going to differ from
book to book. I'm seeing that a lot, even on
some of the most more key games, like you just
said the Alabama game, where you have a difference of opinion,
where I have another book that tells me I'm all
(04:39):
one sided on Alabama. So it's good when you see
books doing what Westgate's doing, where they're taking a position,
because it kind of tells you, you know, like we
used to use the pinnacle shade, what pinnacles shading, you
could kind of confirm it's the sharp side. So I
like when bookmakers do that. But I'm always cautious about
(05:00):
that the needs because it's going to differ from book
the book.
Speaker 4 (05:04):
I see that all the time.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
Yeah, I think absolutely.
Speaker 3 (05:06):
Here, let me give you a couple of these sharp
totals because he said, hey, Kel, I should have been
sharing these with you. But we have a new Sharp
Totals guy who has been killing at the last five
five weeks or so. He gives us anywhere between six
and eight plays, and we have to move more aggressively
off his bets. Boston College under fifty five and a half,
NC State under fifty five and a half, Wake Forest
(05:28):
under fifty four and a half, Troy under forty eight
and a half, FAU over sixty three, Arkansas State under
sixteen and a half, Nebraska under forty four and a half.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
So found that very interesting.
Speaker 3 (05:42):
And then just to follow up before we get into
all your stuff, VR is very public sides Baylor, Syracuse, SMU,
and Nebraska. That makes me very happy. I'm on Northwestern
here early on. I like them to win that game outright.
So let's kind of get into some of the stuff
that you've seen on your side of the computer screen,
and then we'll get to Brian Power next ross Benjamin
(06:04):
to get to all of your college football questions. So
if you have one, put it in the chat. Then
we're gonna get VR out of here because I know
he's got a busy morning with the UFC kicking off.
Speaker 4 (06:12):
Yeah, no, no problem at all, Kelly.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
The information I'm receiving confirms with what you're getting for
more meaning one sided money on Syracuse. That one sticks
out a lot because it's sharp as well. Earlier in
the week they took seventeen and a half on Syracuse.
And then you have the public coming in on Syracuse
as well, some of the most one side And I'm
(06:37):
gonna give you the public sides first and then I'll
give you some sharp sides. The most public sides that
I'm seeing Iowa State because you had sharp Better's line
up on Iowa State and now you have the public
lining up on Iowa State. You have Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt getting
bet that's on that key number of three. We had
it two and a half earlier in the week. The
(06:58):
only reason isn't juice or they're not at three and
a half is because on the Sharp money opposite the
Sharp money on Missouri at plus three. But there's more
than enough Vandy money to offset that. That's one of
the most one sided bets I've seen Vanderbilt, Iowa State, Syracuse,
and Stanford Stanford as well, catching all those points. And
(07:22):
we talked about Baylor because Baylor's sharp and square. So
you got the wise guys on Baylor at about four
to four and a half, and you have the public
coming in on.
Speaker 4 (07:31):
Baylor as well. That always worries me when they're all
on the same side.
Speaker 1 (07:36):
A couple of the sharp sides I'll give you now
because the totals move too aggressively, so the value is
pretty much extracted on all the totals. We got down
on UH one twenty five U Mass plus seventeen sixteen
and a half and sixteen UH one twenty nine, Syracuse
plus seventeen and a half, one NC State plus seven
(07:56):
and a half, all the way down the plus six
and a half, seven Michigan minus the fourteen one forty
four Perdue plus the three public's on Purdue as well,
one forty six Wake plus the three also seeing public
on Wake. UH one eighty six Iowa State. I gave you,
like I said, sharp and public heavy on Iowa State
(08:17):
two O seven, Colorado State plus six plus five and
a half and plus five and one seventy five Texas
at seven. They're picking off sevens on Texas. That's some
of the sharper signs that we haven't seen by back
on that are legit positions and case state Kansas kill.
Speaker 5 (08:37):
Oh boy, I like the under.
Speaker 4 (08:38):
I like the under.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Okay, you know that way too.
Speaker 1 (08:43):
I would have went under fifty two to fifty three,
but fifty five is way too high.
Speaker 3 (08:46):
Yeah, they were seeing the weather it was going to
be moving through. I have some friends boots on the
ground there said right now, no rain, so no wind.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
No rain. Obviously wind is one of the.
Speaker 4 (08:56):
Gun the head. I like Kansas to kill.
Speaker 1 (08:58):
I know I'm not I'm not betting it, but gun ahead,
I'd be on Kansas.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
Listen, I get it. Everybody is expecting. Here. Here's the
real reality.
Speaker 3 (09:09):
Kansas has showed more promise this year than Kansas State has. Right,
they showed more grit.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
Uh. Jalen Daniels, Jayden Daniels, whichever one it is. I
always get those two confused because I just don't care.
Speaker 3 (09:20):
The real reality is is he could throw for five
hundred yards today and it would not shock me. Against
the secondary case, State's going to have to have some
things go their way. They're going to have to get
some turnovers, and no, Dylan Edwards is not good for
the k State running game. Joe Jackson should be able
to fill in. Gus is not one hundred percent. Avery
Johnson is going to have to move those legs. It's
going to be a really interesting game. That's why I
(09:42):
want to cut the show early because I want to
be button seats. I want to be at the bar
Margarita before this one kicks off VR because it is
going to stress me out. I know I said I
quit this team, but I can't quit these sons of bitches.
All right, let's get VR out of here real quickly.
Let everybody know what you've got over at wager talk
dot com before we let you go.
Speaker 1 (09:59):
Yeah, I've got a real good college football card for
you today with a five percent. I haven't fired a
five percent in weeks and number one in profit in
college football. We've had nine weeks college football, we turned
the profit in eight of those, and we're all ready
up for this week, coming off from nice two to
one and hit our best bet last night to four percent.
I have tomorrow's NFL as well with a handful of
(10:20):
four percent and the steam room goes an hour heading
in the kickoff. I'll be back for last cole as
well tomorrow and yeahally so.
Speaker 4 (10:29):
Best the luck.
Speaker 3 (10:30):
VR is going to be here with Aeron Epstein tomorrow
morning eleven am Eastern, and then if you are at
least a wager Talk insider or a premium subscriber to
VR's packages, you can join him in the steam room
tomorrow for free right here at noon Eastern leading up
until kickoff. WT Dot, Buzz Backslash insiders just two dollars
and ninety nine cents to join VR. Thank you for
(10:51):
being here on a busy Saturday morning. We will see
you next week for bet on It. Let's bring in
Brian Power. You guys know him. He is on the
host of the new college football show The Blitz with
Ralph Michaels and Ross Benjamin. If you guys have not
checked that out yet, you are absolutely missing out. It
is such a great college football show. They go over
all the top twenty five games and then they kind
(11:13):
of get into some of the meat and potatoes of
some of the other things they like.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
Did I forget anything VP?
Speaker 6 (11:18):
No, That sounds like a fairly strong synopsis of the program.
Live Thursday, every one pm. Immediately following Andy Laning on
Wager Talk today, Man, is there a lot going on
right now?
Speaker 5 (11:29):
Kelly?
Speaker 6 (11:30):
Yeah, when VR were talking, there's a lot of moving
pieces here that we're trying to wait.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Let's start off with this game.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
I am fading arch Manning on the road today and
VR just said, every time there's a seven that pops up, boom,
they scoop it up. I have a seven and a
half in pocket on Mississippi State.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
There was a flash of an eight yesterday. I did
miss it.
Speaker 3 (11:50):
We'll see kind of what your thoughts are here on
this Texas team.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
I think they have a great defense.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
I like this Mississippi State team, but last week I
was so frustrated they had the win. Well, they had
the opportunity, excuse me, to kick the game winning field
goal in Gainesville.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
Turned the ball over. Just run the dang football.
Speaker 3 (12:09):
I need that hat. There's a hat in the round
that says that, and I need that because that's what
the Bulldog should have done last week. What are your thoughts?
I was kicking myself not taking Kentucky plus the points.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
Last week.
Speaker 3 (12:20):
Texas got taken to overtime once again by a subpar team.
I think this might be the next well, the next
team that takes him to overtime.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
How about that?
Speaker 6 (12:30):
Well, look, it'd be dogger pass for me obviously, or
I don't want to lay this number on the road
with Texas what should be a low score game. You're
talking about a Texas team, Kelly, that was outgained by
over two hundred yards last week at Kentucky. As you
mentioned that game went to overtime Kentucky, I think we
would all consider to be the weakest team in the SEC,
and Texas was never never a threat to cover the
(12:51):
spread in that game. Obviously, everyone is ripping an arch Manning.
He was over hype coming into the year. A lot
of us thought that you can go back. You mentioned
the Blitz when I announced that show over the summer.
When I announced that we would have that show, Ross
Ralph and I Andy Lang asked me, who are some
overrated teams you think? And I said, well, if arch
(13:12):
Manning's so good, why didn't he play last year?
Speaker 5 (13:13):
And I think we're out? Yeah, yeah, I mean it
wasn't like the craziest taken world.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
I know there were a lot of people with Strakesy
and thinks that he's a better quarterback. He should have
played over.
Speaker 6 (13:24):
It's not like they loved Quinn. You ers in Austin.
Here's the Here's why Mississippi State, though, did not make
my card.
Speaker 5 (13:30):
Here's why I personally am not betting Mississippi.
Speaker 6 (13:33):
State several What was it about a month ago, maybe
even a little more than a month ago. I did
bet Mississippi State and a very similar number in Starkville
against Arizona State, Texas would not be a pick. I'm
against Arizona State on a new field, they just would
not be. And so I'm wondering. There's a lot of
games today where the spots screams BP take the points.
(13:54):
But I'm looking at the number. I'm like, I don't
love this number. And I don't love this number, Kelly.
So look, I I'll tell you right now, under no
uncertain terms, that I lay it with Texas in this spot,
but I don't love the number with the cow bells.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
All right, let's get into some more of these questions.
I just saw ross the boss. He's waiting in the wings,
so we'll have him ask some more questions as well.
We're getting out of here by like eleven forty three.
That is our goal. It is a twelve minute drive
to where I want to be sitting at kickoff.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
Got it, guys, We're going to.
Speaker 6 (14:26):
Do raphic the very specific time. Ross eleven forty three Eastern.
She wants to be off.
Speaker 3 (14:31):
When Art said he wasn't coming on this morning, I
was like, perfect, you know why because I want to
get out of here early. All right, Memphis QB question?
Sorry about that? Is a Memphis quarterback playing? Why did
the line drop too?
Speaker 2 (14:41):
Flourida? What are you seen this morning?
Speaker 3 (14:43):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (14:43):
So I was.
Speaker 6 (14:44):
I saw those questions come in and I was frantically googling.
As you said, we're bringing Brian Power on. It looks
like Lewis is going to try to give it a
go here against South Florida. And on the Blitz Thursday
we talked about if Lewis plays.
Speaker 5 (14:56):
This is a great number on Memphis.
Speaker 7 (14:58):
Memphis.
Speaker 5 (14:58):
This is a team.
Speaker 6 (14:59):
Don't the coach Silverfield, but they've always been great at
the Liberty Bowl cal I think it's thirty nine and six.
They are their last forty five home games ten and
three against the number is Memphis. The last thirteen times
they've been a home doog. This is a good.
Speaker 5 (15:14):
Number that you could get. It would only again.
Speaker 6 (15:17):
This is going to be the running theme of the day, guys,
probably every question you asked me, it would be home
doog or pass for me in this situation.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
All right, home doog or pass.
Speaker 3 (15:26):
Let's get into some of these other questions. Andrew wants
to know. Are these SEC games have the wrong side?
Favorite LSU? A and M missoo Vandy. I will say this,
I have been betting against LSU all year long BP,
especially at home. I think they've been getting way too
much love. Five interceptions with Florida, thank you, guys, and
(15:46):
a wonky turnover there late with South Carolina lost that
one by the hook.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
I want to like LSU. Here are you on LSU?
Speaker 5 (15:56):
Look, here's the deal. A and M is like I
gave you.
Speaker 6 (15:59):
Go back to the preseason A and M over eight
and a half wins, was a wind till like that
was plus one fifty and that's looking good.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
They need what it had been so good at betting
unders hand up.
Speaker 3 (16:08):
I did not touch it this year, but like probably
the last five or six seasons, I've been betting consistently. Yeah,
certain games win totals unders and A and M was
one of them. I thought, all right, let's see what
Colin Kline and Mikelko can do this year. And so far,
so far I have to eat crow.
Speaker 6 (16:22):
Yeah, but they've been very luck They've been pretty lucky.
Now the final score shows that only won by three
last week against Arkansas.
Speaker 5 (16:28):
I was on Arkansas last week.
Speaker 6 (16:30):
And anyone who joined me and watched the game knows
Arkansas snuck in through the back door. But A and M, guys,
this defense has now given up forty plus twice on
the road Arkansas, and don't forget against Notre Dame. They
won against Notre Dame, Kelly, if you recall that game
because of a missed extra point or a bot, I
don't think they got the if memory got it. You
(16:52):
watch so many games they they blend together. I think
I don't think they got the extra point up. I
think they just the holder screwed it up. So you know, well,
the defense hasn't been great on the road. This is
the first time A and M is going it has
to play back to back road games, and they're laying points.
I don't think a lot of people thought they would
have been laying in Death Valley, where of course, Brian
(17:12):
Kelly nineteen and one straight up Kelly the whole night
games in that rouge. As much as I don't really
like Brian Kelly, that casey accent he tried playing off
when he got hired was that was embarrassing, But there's
a lot of he typically does well in the spot
and that thing where he danced.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
Questions right now VP, and this was from four am,
because you know we pre scheduled the show.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
I feel so seen. This was from four sixteen am.
Kelly needs going to schedule one margaering.
Speaker 3 (17:40):
To do like wow, wow, wow. I just saw that.
Because that is all the way back. We're gonna get
into some of these other questions here before we get
to Ross. I don't know, we're gonna see powers. Do
you like the over fifty two in the old Miss
Oklahoma game? Here's another SEC game that I find very
in intriguing. I think it's Oklahoma or Pass for me here.
(18:03):
I think John Mattier looked a lot better well. Also,
he didn't throw in three interceptions last week versus South Carolina.
I knew South Carolina was dead in the water in
my parlay as soon as I knew they were the
dog with Flees. I was like, well, this one's over,
and I kind of feel like Ole Miss might be
a dog with Fleees this week.
Speaker 5 (18:18):
Yeah, so something I've talked.
Speaker 6 (18:19):
I have part of the Oklahoma tied to a number
of moneyline parlays this week.
Speaker 5 (18:24):
Rather than lay the points, let's just do that.
Speaker 6 (18:25):
People can read about this game if you go to
my page right now, WT dot Buzz slash PP. But look,
here's the deal. This is an interesting situation, Kelly. You
have a top twenty five matchup where the lower ranked
team is both home and favored. There have been six
previous instances of this this season, top twenty five game
(18:46):
lower ranked team home and favored. All six of the
previous instances have seen the home favorite win and cover.
So that points well to Oklahoma, who, of course has
the number one defense in the country both yards per
play yards per game allowed. They have held all seven
opponents to season lows in total yardage, a tough spot
(19:06):
for Lane Kiffen's rebels. Kelly, I think we would all
agree on that. Back to back road games, they wilted
late against Georgia. I was very happy to see that.
So yeah, I believe Oklahoma wins this game. Now, the
question was not about the side. Lewis asked about the total.
Very interesting. Every single team in America has gone under
at least in one game. But there's one team in
America that has not gone over in a game yet
(19:28):
the season. That would be Oklahoma, Kelly. They are the
only team perfect to the under. It's probably gonna take
points to beat Ole Miss, is what I think. So
I think my tier plays well today, third game back
from injury. I think Oklahoma's gonna put up some points
in this game, and I don't love over fifty two.
Speaker 5 (19:42):
But if I had to play the total, Lewis, it's
how I play it.
Speaker 3 (19:45):
Oooh yeah, all of the games have gone under the
total this year, so kind of buyer beware. Eventually the
bookmakers are going to adjust because the public has caught up.
Let's get in a couple more of these questions. We've
got about four more minutes. Brian Power, David Thing wants
to know if you're in to pick ten this week.
I'm assuming he's in my Splash Sports pick ten. By
(20:06):
the way, there's still about a fifteen hundred dollars overlay
with less than forty minutes to go before kick, so
go get some of that dead money. Splash sports dot
Com backslash Kelly in Vegas. How would you pick a
best bet? How does Honey, that's a good question. How
does Brian Power narrow down? I know how I do it,
but I want to hear how you do it.
Speaker 6 (20:25):
Well, it's very simple. I go through every game and
the one I like the most would be my best bet.
Speaker 3 (20:29):
No, look, okay, So in David's and David's fairness, so
we started doing these weekly pick ten, which is a lot.
It's a lot of games. I don't bet ten games
on a college football Saturday. But I don't also get
to choose the game. So how it works at Splash
even though I'm a commissioner because I want to play
and I want people to play against me or with me,
or however you would like to say that, I do
(20:50):
a hands off approach. I let the guys behind the
scenes pick the games. If I got to pick the
games like case A, KU would be on that list.
If I got to pick the games like you know, Houston,
Arizona State, I think the games that I like would
be on their front and center. But they pick primarily
top twenty five games. They throw in some Thursday and
Friday games and there you have it.
Speaker 5 (21:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (21:11):
So, I mean, look, they're just I mean, you want
to like my entire how do I approach a Saturday
college football card? There's certain things I look for, obviously,
and the people know that. I talk about enough shows.
People know the kind of things I look for, and
we go from there. I mean, how do you pick
your favorite one? I mean, that's this is such a
cop on answer cup. But it's up to you. It's
(21:32):
what you're most comfortable with. I know what I'm most
comfortable with today. I have a five percent play at
wagertalk dot com, wt dot buzz SLASHVP. That's what I'm
most comfortable with. But I don't know, it's what's your
most It's a hard question for me to answer. I'm
not in the man's brain. I always tell people, you know,
you've got to come up with your own way.
Speaker 2 (21:52):
Oh, I'll say this.
Speaker 3 (21:53):
I have so that I have two entries and this
week's pick ten, I use different best bets in both.
I use Houston and one, and then I use Mississippi
State and the other because frankly, I like all three
of my dogs the same. This week, I would say
I went back and forth on how I wanted to
approach it. I used Houston as a barking dog because
I think they actually have the best opportunity to win
(22:14):
out right, right.
Speaker 5 (22:15):
Yeah, I like Houston. Yeah.
Speaker 6 (22:17):
As a matter of fact, that's another team who's winning total. Yeah,
But if they win today, I get to cash before
Halloween with Houston, Virgina and virgin And unlike Houston, Virginia
is a big favorite Bill Belichick, who could be waking
up pennyless any morning.
Speaker 3 (22:30):
Okay, I don't understand that game at all, but there's
no way I'm getting involved in North Carolina.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
But would you be shocked in the slightest to see this?
They won the game?
Speaker 4 (22:39):
Outright?
Speaker 2 (22:40):
No, I was waiting for North Carolina to do something
like that.
Speaker 6 (22:43):
So, all due respect to a good friend of mine,
Aaron Kidd, big Virginia fan, I think Virginia's about as
overrated as any team of the country. The fact that
he have to cash that bet before Halloween is absolutely insane.
But you know the two most overrated teams in the
country right now, Kelly Virginia and Georgia Tech. I saw
a lot of people asking about Iowa State because they
know Iowa State. I know what VR said in the
(23:05):
previous segment that everybody seems to be on them, but look,
they're on for a reason. I like Iowa State in
this game. I'm just gonna come out and tell you
right now. I'll tell you why I like Iowa State today, guys.
Speaker 5 (23:14):
Okay.
Speaker 6 (23:14):
It starts with the fact, yes, this is an unranked
home favorite against the top twenty five team BYU. I
would put as the number three most overrated team in
the country, Kelly, right now, behind Georgia Tech and Virginia
and the aforementioned Georgia Tech and Virginia. And from a
scheduling situation, here's what you need to understand, guys. This
is one of the great scheduling advantages any team has
had this year in college football. Iowa State, desperate off
(23:39):
of by back to back losses BYU, is playing for
a sixth consecutive week, the fourth time on the road.
I have seen this movie before, Kelly Stewart. I did
not believe in BYU last year when they were seven
and zero.
Speaker 5 (23:54):
I do not believe in BYU this year when they
are seven and zero.
Speaker 6 (23:57):
This is a team that was down by double digits
to Arizona on a team that Iowa State trounced, by
the way. And then last week, of course, they win
the Holy War against their rival Utah, a game where
Kyle Whittingham book I'm not I think kicking is for losers,
just like you, Kelly.
Speaker 3 (24:12):
But.
Speaker 5 (24:14):
I thought Utah left some points on the board.
Speaker 6 (24:17):
They were stopped three times on fourth down, and that
was kind of the difference in that game. A game
where Utah I gained BYU by one hundred yards old,
by the way.
Speaker 2 (24:26):
Oh, you know that's a game that I just here's
the thing.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
I think both of the little teams are a little
tiny bit overrated there. I would say, no, no, no,
Apparently you did not see my power ratings of teams
that I hate the most.
Speaker 2 (24:41):
I did on Kelly and Murray Nebraska Texas. What I
would say, it wasn't even in the top fifteen. Settle Down,
settle Down, Cyclone, Drew, settle Down.
Speaker 6 (24:48):
Okay, I would say Iowa State, Cyclone, Drew and all
their respect. I have them once upon a time as
my most overrated team in the country.
Speaker 5 (24:56):
As a matter of fact, I mentioned I have a
five percent today.
Speaker 6 (25:00):
My last five percent play in college football was against
Iowa State when they were undefeated, number eleven in the
country at unranked Cincinnati, and guess what happened there? Cincinnati
handed it to Iowa State. Yes, this is a what
comes around goes around the proverbial shoe on the other
foot situation.
Speaker 3 (25:19):
Fair enough, All right, we're running a little behind schedule
and those margaritas are calling my name, so we're gonna
answer one more question before we bring in. Ross Winning
wants to know Kelly, can you ask MEP what dogs.
Speaker 2 (25:30):
Are on his radar today?
Speaker 5 (25:32):
And if you want, I'll go real quick, Kelly. I promise.
Speaker 6 (25:34):
If you guys want longer breakdowns on these, you could
check the Power five. I like Louisiana against your favorite team, Troy.
I like Houston against Arizona State. I like Kentucky against Tennessee.
I think Michigan's lay into I get it. I know
that there's some sharp my image. But if you get
fourteen and a half with Michigan State in a rivalry game,
(25:54):
I would take that as well. Wake Forest against SMU
that is obviously the sandwich spot of all sandwich spots
for SMU. So those are just a few underdogs that
I like. I saw someone asking about Auburn Arkansas. I
joked on the Blitz. The only way I'll leave you
with this, The only way that game could end is
(26:15):
for it to go to triple overtime. Teams have to
trade two and they both spontaneously combust. Those are the
two unluckiest teams in the history of college football.
Speaker 5 (26:27):
I do stand how they find ways to lose.
Speaker 3 (26:29):
Right now, the Blitz that means Rossel, Oh, Yes, bride power,
Ralph Michaels, You guys have a thirty day all sports
all access for one ninety nine. That makes it under
seven dollars a day. Please let everybody know where they
can get that, please.
Speaker 5 (26:45):
Well, they can get a w T dot buzz slash BP.
Speaker 6 (26:47):
I'm a little preferential that page, but Russell probably tell
you to go to WT Dot Buzz slash rb up next.
And that's okay too, because I think the way they
have it, we're sharing in all the revenue anyway. So yeah,
take advantage of that deal.
Speaker 5 (26:59):
Guys.
Speaker 6 (26:59):
I do have I know I've said it three times,
let's make it four. I do have a five percent play.
The reason I'm saying it so many times they're rare.
I've had three, only three five percent place since September one, Kelly,
And guess.
Speaker 5 (27:11):
What I won all of them?
Speaker 6 (27:13):
Falcons are the Vikings in the NFL, Cincinnati over Iowa
Stateton College, and then we had the Cubs over the
Brewers in my only five percent so far in the
Major League Baseball playoffs.
Speaker 5 (27:23):
So five percent play WT dot bus slash PP.
Speaker 3 (27:25):
Love that I will be going over there, But first
we got to get in Ross, Benjamin, And yes I
did wear this shirt on Wednesday during my best bat
segment because I'm wearing it today.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
I found it amongst everything else.
Speaker 3 (27:38):
I never I'm like, I keep nothing, Ross, like I
am like the anti horder, I'm like, just get rid
of things. But I have had this shirt for probably
like twenty years.
Speaker 7 (27:48):
Yeah. Well, I figured we were going to talk about
that a little bit, you know.
Speaker 3 (27:52):
Well, wasn't I get it because I weren't of the
best bat segment and battle it So people are gonna
say something, eh, But yes, I decided I'm gonna wear
it today because how fitting. Who doesn't want less Jayhawks
in their lives? Ross, I think we've talked about this
game at nauseum so We're just gonna go. Jay Buff
wants one of those wager Talk golf shirts. You know
what I'm thinking about when we do different tiers for
the wager Talk insiders, if you are at the higher tier,
(28:14):
then you're going to get a wager Talk polo.
Speaker 2 (28:16):
But we haven't got that far yet.
Speaker 3 (28:18):
But if you want to be a wager Talk insider,
WT Dot Buzz Backslash Insiders, just two dollars and ninety
nine it's a month gets you all the early access
to all things wager Talk.
Speaker 2 (28:28):
Russ. You guys have been crushing on the Blitz.
Speaker 3 (28:31):
Been loving watching the show on Thursday afternoons, and it's
because I love college football and it is just a
strictly college football show. But we're gonna get some of
these questions because you guys go over a lot of
things on that show, but this show strictly wanted to
ask the audience. Jay Buff wants to know Illinois Washington.
I thought this was kind of an interesting play here.
I didn't end up getting involved on Washington, but it's
(28:53):
Illinois the square dog here.
Speaker 7 (28:55):
Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 8 (28:56):
I talked about this on wager Talk to Day with
Andy on Wednesday, and we do a segment. It's called
this line makes no sense, And this is the game
I talked about. You got a Washington team, it's a
four and a half point favorite, I think, against Illinois,
who's the number twenty three team in the country. To me,
(29:20):
when these types of situations happen, this is a sure
sign to me. They're actually down to three and a
half right now, and Illinois is catching money. Obviously, the
ranked team is an underdog against a team that I
believe has lost three games going in, and I just
think it's a sucker play to take the favorite in
(29:40):
this situation. And there's got to be a reason why
they opened. They opened as a favorite, they moved to
like four and a half, and then they're down to
three and a half, so they opened at five. Actually,
now they're down to three and a half, and a
lot of that to me is public money, So I would.
Speaker 7 (29:57):
I would.
Speaker 8 (29:57):
It's not part of my card, but it just looks
like a trap to me. And at three and a half,
that's an even better number. You could actually get a
three and lay one twenty five at bet online right now,
So I would lean toward Washington in this spot.
Speaker 3 (30:12):
Kelly, all right, let's get into some of these college
football questions that we didn't answer with BP ross. Do
you do a lot of totals? Ucla Indiana over? This
is another game that I just didn't really get involved in.
Ucla has been playing such better football over the last
few weeks since after they fired their head coach. Indiana
(30:33):
still with Kirk Signetti. We know he's going to keep
his foot on the gas. I will say this, taking
it under there seems rather nauseating.
Speaker 8 (30:42):
Yeah, I don't have a strong opinion here. I don't
see UCLA being able to slow down Indiana's offense. And
this line speaks volumes to me because this would look
like a flat spot ordinarily for Indiana, Ucla off three
straight wins. I'm going to stay away from this game.
(31:02):
In terms of the over, I would think that might
be the way to go, or maybe a better option,
maybe going over Indiana's team total.
Speaker 3 (31:11):
Ooh, Indiana team total over is an interesting play. That's
what's so great now with the market Ross and how
things have started to evolve. When I first started betting sports,
you basically got sides and totals.
Speaker 4 (31:22):
Yep, Super Bowl you got all.
Speaker 3 (31:25):
The good stuff, right, And now this market has just
ever changed. So guys, something to really consider it if
you if you like the over because of one team,
maybe look towards their team total. Cody Butler wants to
know your thoughts on Auburn at Arkansas.
Speaker 7 (31:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 8 (31:39):
I think Brian hit it right on and knows we
talked about this game. I want to say at length,
but jokingly so because these are two teams that can't
get out of their own way. Auburn's you know, they
create and invent ways to lose games, So I don't
trust them. Arkansas their defense leeves a lot to be desired.
(32:01):
But could Auburn's offense, which is their weak link, expose that?
Speaker 7 (32:06):
I don't think.
Speaker 8 (32:07):
So this is a game. I just think there's a
lot better value on the board than these two teams
that are, just like Brian alluded to, seemed to self combust.
Speaker 3 (32:20):
Okay, let's talk about value on the board, right. I
know you've got some plays up right now a wager
talk dot com. We just mentioned that with you and
Brian Power. So if you guys are looking to get
on board with one or both of those guys, they
have a blitz only special with Ralph Michael's Thirty Days
all access for one ninety nine under seven because it'll
(32:42):
be under seven dollars per day gets you that coupon
co wt Dot buzzbackslash RB. Well, let's talk about a
couple of those value plays that maybe Major Card or
maybe you gave out as a free play on either
wager Talk Today or the wager Talk Free Picks page.
Speaker 8 (32:56):
Okay, well, let's take a look at Georgia Tech. You know,
this seems everybody's saying Georgiat West. Seems like everybody's saying
Georgia Tech's an overrated team. And you know there's some
credence to that when you look at some of the
close calls they've had. They're not a team that wells
(33:17):
you wo blowout wins. However, this is a really good
situation for Georgia Tech. This Syracuse team is hurting right now.
They played good defensively last week against pitt However, you're
looking at Ricky Collins at quarterback for Syracuse. It's a
huge difference. When they went from Angelly to Ricky Collins
(33:39):
after three games, Angelly was a top passer in the country.
He gets hurt in the second half of the Clemson game.
Ricky Collins has made three starts, He's thrown seven interceptions.
The Orange have turned the ball over nineteen times. And
when you look at the quarterback comparison here, heines King
to me. I said it on the college football preview
(34:02):
show I did with Teddy over at the Westgate. I
think Aines King was going to be the best quarterback
in the ACC. And I stick to my guns on that.
I'm sure there will be some arguments against that, but
that's okay. That's the way I feel right now. This
kid just knows how to get it done. He could
beat you with his arm, he could beat you with
his legs. I just don't think Syracuse could do enough
(34:24):
offensively here, and they'll wear down and said their defense
will wear down in the second half because their inability
is to sustained drives. So it's now down to sixteen
and a half at FanDuel and seventeen at other places.
I wouldn't hesitate to lay as much as eighteen on
(34:44):
Georgia Tech here against Syracuse.
Speaker 3 (34:47):
All right, let's talk about a couple of these other
games from the chat ross. One of the games that
we haven't touched on was SMU Wake Forest. Now, I
thought it was interesting Mark what I do a show
called on it on Wednesdays, and he said, here is
your sandwich spot. But now it opened three and a half,
now all the way up to six and a half.
Speaker 2 (35:07):
What are we missing here?
Speaker 8 (35:09):
I don't know what we're missing because wake Forest has
been extremely competitive. I mentioned Georgia Tech and one of
the scares they had was against the same wake Forest team.
And I think wake Forest is definitely overachieved, but by
the same token, like Marco brought up and Brian brought up,
this is a sandwich game, and I think that this
(35:31):
is also, you know, a perfect example of a team
with the better brand name. Because SMU fresh in everybody's
mind college football playoffs last year. Wake Forest not exactly
the kremdittle Krem of college football the last couple of years.
(35:51):
If you do like SMU, you lost a lot of
value with this move. So I would lean toward a
very small lean toward wake Forest in the spot getting
the points at home. I we got.
Speaker 3 (36:04):
About six minutes before I got to get out of here,
so I can you know.
Speaker 2 (36:09):
Get to getting ross. How about this? Give us some
dogs you like today winning.
Speaker 3 (36:14):
Let's know, everybody watches the show I hope because they
like underdogs winning outright as much as I do.
Speaker 2 (36:19):
What are some upsets you see potentially brewing?
Speaker 8 (36:22):
Yeah, Northwestern at Nebraska. This game goes at noon Eastern time.
I don't know how you could have faith in Nebraska
as a single digit favor. They've failed miserably on each
occasion when they've been in that situation. Northwestern five and two,
three and one in a Big Ten. Talk about a
(36:42):
team that's overachieved and their defense is extremely good. Northwestern.
I just don't trust Nebraska as a favorite in the spot.
I would lean heavily toward the underdog Northwestern. Let me
go through a couple more games here, Kelly, if you
want to give me.
Speaker 7 (37:01):
Here's the other one. BYU.
Speaker 8 (37:04):
I know you guys talked about this. Look Ordinarily, I
have a contrarian mindset where if I see a team
like Iowa State, who's I believe a three loss team
at this point two losses at least as a two
and a half point favored over an undefeated, highly ranked team,
I would jump all over Iowa State.
Speaker 7 (37:26):
I'm not going to do that.
Speaker 8 (37:27):
I think BYU is the way to go here. I
think that this will only motivate them when they look
and see that they're an underdog against an Iowa State
team that's really vastly underachieved or disappointed their preseason projection.
So I would look at BYU in this spot. Memphis.
(37:49):
I did text you guys that this line has come
down to three, three and a half.
Speaker 7 (37:55):
I got on.
Speaker 8 (37:55):
Memphis at five. Look, here's the thing South Florida is.
I'm not going to try to poke holes in their resume.
I mean, their one lone loss came against Miami and
they were blown out in that game. Yeah, they beat Boise,
but that's not a Boise team that is as good
as they've been in years past. They're still pretty good,
but they're not a college football playoff type of team
(38:17):
like they were a year ago. And the second game
they beat Florida as an eighteen and a half point underdog.
Speaker 7 (38:24):
Everybody was shocked by that.
Speaker 8 (38:25):
But now where we see Florida is at this stature,
it doesn't look anywhere near as impressive now as it
did then. And Memphis got caught looking ahead last week
as a huge underdog against a UAB team that went
through a head coaching change during the week leading up
to the game. I just think Memphis is going to
(38:47):
come up big here. Look, one loss and they control
their own destiny as far as the American Conference goes,
because if they can knock off Florida South Florida in
this spot, they they have Navy and Tulane left in
two of their last four games. I just think urgency
and desperation lies with the Memphis Tigers here.
Speaker 7 (39:11):
You can get them at three and a half.
Speaker 8 (39:12):
You can get the hook here, which is key because
I think this is a close game that goes down
to the Warrior. Would not be shocked at all the
c Memphis win this game.
Speaker 2 (39:21):
All right.
Speaker 3 (39:21):
I'm getting a lot of people mad at me because
I did not repeat the art sharp square public total,
so I will do that. I'm gonna wait a couple
minutes after Ross gets done, and I will definitely share those.
Speaker 2 (39:35):
But Ross here a curious question. This is a game that.
Speaker 3 (39:38):
I feel like it's kind of flown under the radar.
We talked about for a second with BP. He kind
of said, hey, look, Brian Kelly, Death Valley at Night
LSU is possibly the play I've been so low on
anm all season long. I have lost money betting against
them twice. Now I don't know if I can lose
money betting against a third time. Do you think LSU
(39:59):
is the right.
Speaker 8 (40:00):
I wouldn't bet against them. I wouldn't bet against Texas
A and M. I mean, here's the thing Brian mentioned.
They're nineteen and one straight up at home at night
with Brian Kelly in charge. The bottom line is is
if you look at those twenty games, I believe seventeen
of them they were a double digit favored or more.
(40:22):
That's not the case here. And look, if you don't
think like an odds maker at times in this business,
you're one step behind the eight ball. There's a reason
why Texas A and M is a favorite on the
road against LSU. Kelly, I was extremely high on LSU
before the season began. As a matter of fact, I
picked them to win the SEC. They still can, but
(40:45):
I just don't try. I mean, their offense to me
has been vastly, vastly disappointed. And Brian mentioned Texas A
and M. They were exposed on a couple occasions this
year against Arkansas and Notre Dame in terms of the offensively,
but LSU does not present the same challenges offensively, and
(41:05):
this Texas A and M team can move the ball
on anybody. I just think this is a game where
the LSU offense will be their biggest enigma and their
defense will wear down late. I like small home, the
small road favored in this spot. As a matter of fact,
if you can get one forty or less on the
money line, that's the route I would go. I'm a
(41:28):
big proponent of that, because, look, there's nothing worse than
having a team that won but they didn't cover because
they only won by one or two points. So I
would take Texas A and M money line at minus one.
Speaker 7 (41:42):
Forty or less.
Speaker 8 (41:43):
Otherwise I wouldn't hesitate to late a two and a
half here.
Speaker 3 (41:46):
All right, great stuff from Ross, Benjamin Ross. What do
you have to promote before we get you out of here?
And yes, guys, I'm going to repeat those art needs
for you. Guys, I'm gonna be late all for you.
Speaker 8 (41:58):
You're welcome, all right, So we got the special for me,
Ralph and Brian that you already alluded to.
Speaker 7 (42:06):
Also, folks, college.
Speaker 8 (42:08):
Football, you know, number one and win percentage last year,
Number one in units earned last year, up one hundred
and twelve units in college football since September ninth of
twenty twenty three. When it lasts that long, you know,
and it's that good, it's not a fluke started. And
(42:29):
this season I'm off to a twenty one and eleven start,
sixty five percent up thirty one units number two because
Gianni is just killing it in college football because he's
a volume player and he's winning and God bless him.
But still pretty good season so far in college football, folks,
And the best of all is all sports. I'm up
(42:52):
one hundred and thirty four units plus since May thirteenth
of this year. Right now, fourteen ninety excuse me, nineteen
ninety nine is a three hundred and sixty five day
all access pass. If you purchase that for me and
you put in the code save five hundred at checkout,
we'll take that down to fourteen ninety nine.
Speaker 7 (43:14):
Not only will it go down to fourteen ninety nine.
Speaker 8 (43:16):
Kelly, but for the entirety of that three hundred and
sixty five days, whoever purchased that package for me, they're
also going to get a twenty five percent bonus coupon
that they could use toward any other purchase on any
other of the great experts over at Wagertalk dot com.
And if that doesn't suit you, you can get the
rest of twenty twenty five all sports right now for
(43:40):
five hundred and ninety dollars one hundred and seventy six
dollars off. It'll take you right through December thirty first,
and my MBA is off to a three and oh start,
and MBA is on a seventeen and five run going
back to the beginning of last year. In college basketball
starts next week, Kelly.
Speaker 3 (43:56):
College basketball starts next week. I'm so excited. You are
absolutely correct.
Speaker 2 (44:01):
Ross All right, we're gonna get Ross the Boss out
of here.
Speaker 3 (44:03):
You guys can catch him every single Thursday, one pm
Eastern right here live on the wager Talking YouTube channel
Brian Power, Ralph Michael's All Things college Football. So thank you, Ross,
WT Dot buzz Backslashy.
Speaker 2 (44:17):
Of course get on board with Ross.
Speaker 3 (44:18):
I promise you guys, I would repeat this needs from
the Westgate Super Book Art and Caesar said, they're gonna
need South Carolina, they're gonna need Cincinnati, they're gonna need Pittsburgh,
they're gonna need Minnesota, and they booked it to need Alabama.
That one was kind of crazy for me, what they
saw that was sharp Utah, Illinois, Colorado State, Texas, and Wisconsin.
(44:41):
He also said they have a very sharp totals guy
who's been killing it the last five weeks. Boston College
under fifty five and a half, n C State under
fifty five and a half, Wake Forest under fifty four
and a half, Troy under forty eight and a half,
FAU over sixty three, Arkansas State under sixty and a half,
Nebraska under forty four and a half. Public sides Baylor, Syracuse, SMU,
(45:05):
and Nebraska. Art says his favorite play today nebrassa or
excuse me, Iowa State minus two and a half. I
hope everybody has a profitable Saturday Back tomorrow, Aeriel Epstein,
Yanni the Greek, of course, John Murray's gonna be popping in,
and David Delano is gonna be joining us for the
first time here on the program to answer all of
(45:26):
your NFL questions. If you guys are a Wager Talk insider,
WT Dot Buzz Backslash Insiders a joint, you guys can
follow up right after last call enjoining the steam room
with Yanni the Greek go over all of those last
minute NFL plays, sides, totals, teasers.
Speaker 2 (45:41):
You have it. Hope you guys have a great day
in Go Cats.
Of that.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
Welcome to Wager Talks Last Call.
Speaker 3 (00:03):
We're gonna have a shorter show today, as you can
tell because Ka plays Ku right off the top of noon,
and I got places to be and people to see.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
You know who else has got places to be and
people to see. Yanni the Greek.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
We're gonna bring him right and and then after he
gets done, we're gonna go over some of the needs
from Art to Cason from the Westgates Super Book. Both
guys are on a time constraint this morning because the
UFC is basically underway right now. Vre kind of get
into that first. Let anybody know what you've got going
on as far as UFC. I know this is a
college football show, but with these fights starting here, I
(00:36):
think right now, actually, yep, we need to kind of
get things underway for everyone.
Speaker 4 (00:39):
Oh yeah, I'll share some winners with you, guys.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
We just coming off of a hit two out of
three in college football last night plus a plus one
fifty on the Toronto Blue Jays. So coming into this
weekend on fire and first UFC bet we had was
a three percent on a plus three fifty.
Speaker 4 (00:56):
That just cash.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
So we're starting off the UFC Up ten units. Really
good start for Saturday. Here's what I got left for you. Okay,
what else do I have? Rebeccy Klein under two and
a half, that's a plus money total for you, Park
Alex CroV under two and a half, got to lay
one twenty. There, there's a two totals for you. I'll
(01:18):
give you one more total over four and a half.
In the comin event Dern and Janderoba. And here's a
couple signs for you, Alexander Rakick. I laid minus one
ten on Rankick Mizuki. I took plus three fifty, but
that's already started. Almeida. I like Almeida. Anything less than
minus two hundred. I think that's the sign I gave
(01:38):
out McKenzie. Dern it about minus one forty. She's up
to minus one sixty sixty five. I think, so some
of the value has been extracted. And finally in the
main event, don't do it. I know Aspinall's gonna win
this fight, but it's a terrible bet. He should not
be this big of a favorite over Seio Gone. Anything
at plus three hundred or better is a great bet
on Gone, one of those great bets that it's probably
(02:00):
not going to cash, but you know, going in you're
getting the best of it.
Speaker 4 (02:04):
He should not be as big of a dog.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
The fact that he opened as the favorite against John
Jones tells you everything you need to know.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
The value side is the under dog.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
But again, Aspinall's probably gonna win this fight, but our
job is to place good bets.
Speaker 4 (02:18):
What's gonna happen is gonna happen. Mazooki wasn't supposed.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
To win her fight either at plus three fifty, but
she got it done for us. So that's MMA for today.
I gave you pretty much the card top to bottom,
and we got a lot of college football cal I
have a what's good is I have my card already
in there, and I've been very selected today. I think
I only got like five four percent plays in there,
so we were really able to narrow down the strongest
(02:42):
positions and my five percent. I like it even more
today than I did three days ago. So hopefully it's
a big, big weekend for us because the NFL is
good tomorrow too. But let's call college football. What do
you want to get into?
Speaker 3 (02:53):
Yeah, let's get into it. Actually I said I was
gonna wait and release Art but let's go because I
like talking about it together, either one after the other
or whichever order.
Speaker 5 (03:03):
So let me give you.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
He sent me a ton he said, cal, I'm really sorry.
He was like, we are shorthanded with the UFC, but
here's what we need. Biggest needs North Carolina, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Minnesota.
The number one need I was floored is Alabama. And
I said, Art, Art, Art, Art, I need you to
(03:23):
back it up here. I was like, I know you're busy,
but when you get a second answer this question, because
everyone is gonna go what Alabama. You look on John
Ewing's page, you look on Ben Fox's page, all these
guys that report from these other sports books, and they're
all saying, you know that it's completely lopsided. Eighty plus
percent of the tickets are on Bama. And here's what
Art said. We booked him to need Bama, so we
(03:44):
took money at thirteen and a half. Thirteen and twelve.
I thought that was really interesting. Now we're at the
market price of eleven, so very interesting that they are
taking a position there on Alabama side.
Speaker 4 (03:56):
YEP.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
And Bama's been one of those teams that we've been
talking about being on the value because they lost that
game early in the season, and you know, once you
get a loss in college football, you're out of the
top five, out of the top ten even And because
that you were able to make some money betting an
undervalued Alabama team. So it looks like Westgate is high
on Alabama like I am. In fact, power rating wise,
(04:17):
I think I have them second or third in my
power ratings. So I agree with that. Here's what you
got to remember with when you talk the percentages and
ticket account and money bet it's going to differ from
book to book. I'm seeing that a lot, even on
some of the most more key games, like you just
said the Alabama game, where you have a difference of opinion,
where I have another book that tells me I'm all
(04:39):
one sided on Alabama. So it's good when you see
books doing what Westgate's doing, where they're taking a position,
because it kind of tells you, you know, like we
used to use the pinnacle shade, what pinnacles shading, you
could kind of confirm it's the sharp side. So I
like when bookmakers do that. But I'm always cautious about
(05:00):
that the needs because it's going to differ from book
the book.
Speaker 4 (05:04):
I see that all the time.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
Yeah, I think absolutely.
Speaker 3 (05:06):
Here, let me give you a couple of these sharp
totals because he said, hey, Kel, I should have been
sharing these with you. But we have a new Sharp
Totals guy who has been killing at the last five
five weeks or so. He gives us anywhere between six
and eight plays, and we have to move more aggressively
off his bets. Boston College under fifty five and a half,
NC State under fifty five and a half, Wake Forest
(05:28):
under fifty four and a half, Troy under forty eight
and a half, FAU over sixty three, Arkansas State under
sixteen and a half, Nebraska under forty four and a half.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
So found that very interesting.
Speaker 3 (05:42):
And then just to follow up before we get into
all your stuff, VR is very public sides Baylor, Syracuse, SMU,
and Nebraska. That makes me very happy. I'm on Northwestern
here early on. I like them to win that game outright.
So let's kind of get into some of the stuff
that you've seen on your side of the computer screen,
and then we'll get to Brian Power next ross Benjamin
(06:04):
to get to all of your college football questions. So
if you have one, put it in the chat. Then
we're gonna get VR out of here because I know
he's got a busy morning with the UFC kicking off.
Speaker 4 (06:12):
Yeah, no, no problem at all, Kelly.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
The information I'm receiving confirms with what you're getting for
more meaning one sided money on Syracuse. That one sticks
out a lot because it's sharp as well. Earlier in
the week they took seventeen and a half on Syracuse.
And then you have the public coming in on Syracuse
as well, some of the most one side And I'm
(06:37):
gonna give you the public sides first and then I'll
give you some sharp sides. The most public sides that
I'm seeing Iowa State because you had sharp Better's line
up on Iowa State and now you have the public
lining up on Iowa State. You have Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt getting
bet that's on that key number of three. We had
it two and a half earlier in the week. The
(06:58):
only reason isn't juice or they're not at three and
a half is because on the Sharp money opposite the
Sharp money on Missouri at plus three. But there's more
than enough Vandy money to offset that. That's one of
the most one sided bets I've seen Vanderbilt, Iowa State, Syracuse,
and Stanford Stanford as well, catching all those points. And
(07:22):
we talked about Baylor because Baylor's sharp and square. So
you got the wise guys on Baylor at about four
to four and a half, and you have the public
coming in on.
Speaker 4 (07:31):
Baylor as well. That always worries me when they're all
on the same side.
Speaker 1 (07:36):
A couple of the sharp sides I'll give you now
because the totals move too aggressively, so the value is
pretty much extracted on all the totals. We got down
on UH one twenty five U Mass plus seventeen sixteen
and a half and sixteen UH one twenty nine, Syracuse
plus seventeen and a half, one NC State plus seven
(07:56):
and a half, all the way down the plus six
and a half, seven Michigan minus the fourteen one forty
four Perdue plus the three public's on Purdue as well,
one forty six Wake plus the three also seeing public
on Wake. UH one eighty six Iowa State. I gave you,
like I said, sharp and public heavy on Iowa State
(08:17):
two O seven, Colorado State plus six plus five and
a half and plus five and one seventy five Texas
at seven. They're picking off sevens on Texas. That's some
of the sharper signs that we haven't seen by back
on that are legit positions and case state Kansas kill.
Speaker 5 (08:37):
Oh boy, I like the under.
Speaker 4 (08:38):
I like the under.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Okay, you know that way too.
Speaker 1 (08:43):
I would have went under fifty two to fifty three,
but fifty five is way too high.
Speaker 3 (08:46):
Yeah, they were seeing the weather it was going to
be moving through. I have some friends boots on the
ground there said right now, no rain, so no wind.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
No rain. Obviously wind is one of the.
Speaker 4 (08:56):
Gun the head. I like Kansas to kill.
Speaker 1 (08:58):
I know I'm not I'm not betting it, but gun ahead,
I'd be on Kansas.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
Listen, I get it. Everybody is expecting. Here. Here's the
real reality.
Speaker 3 (09:09):
Kansas has showed more promise this year than Kansas State has. Right,
they showed more grit.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
Uh. Jalen Daniels, Jayden Daniels, whichever one it is. I
always get those two confused because I just don't care.
Speaker 3 (09:20):
The real reality is is he could throw for five
hundred yards today and it would not shock me. Against
the secondary case, State's going to have to have some
things go their way. They're going to have to get
some turnovers, and no, Dylan Edwards is not good for
the k State running game. Joe Jackson should be able
to fill in. Gus is not one hundred percent. Avery
Johnson is going to have to move those legs. It's
going to be a really interesting game. That's why I
(09:42):
want to cut the show early because I want to
be button seats. I want to be at the bar
Margarita before this one kicks off VR because it is
going to stress me out. I know I said I
quit this team, but I can't quit these sons of bitches.
All right, let's get VR out of here real quickly.
Let everybody know what you've got over at wager talk
dot com before we let you go.
Speaker 1 (09:59):
Yeah, I've got a real good college football card for
you today with a five percent. I haven't fired a
five percent in weeks and number one in profit in
college football. We've had nine weeks college football, we turned
the profit in eight of those, and we're all ready
up for this week, coming off from nice two to
one and hit our best bet last night to four percent.
I have tomorrow's NFL as well with a handful of
(10:20):
four percent and the steam room goes an hour heading
in the kickoff. I'll be back for last cole as
well tomorrow and yeahally so.
Speaker 4 (10:29):
Best the luck.
Speaker 3 (10:30):
VR is going to be here with Aeron Epstein tomorrow
morning eleven am Eastern, and then if you are at
least a wager Talk insider or a premium subscriber to
VR's packages, you can join him in the steam room
tomorrow for free right here at noon Eastern leading up
until kickoff. WT Dot, Buzz Backslash insiders just two dollars
and ninety nine cents to join VR. Thank you for
(10:51):
being here on a busy Saturday morning. We will see
you next week for bet on It. Let's bring in
Brian Power. You guys know him. He is on the
host of the new college football show The Blitz with
Ralph Michaels and Ross Benjamin. If you guys have not
checked that out yet, you are absolutely missing out. It
is such a great college football show. They go over
all the top twenty five games and then they kind
(11:13):
of get into some of the meat and potatoes of
some of the other things they like.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
Did I forget anything VP?
Speaker 6 (11:18):
No, That sounds like a fairly strong synopsis of the program.
Live Thursday, every one pm. Immediately following Andy Laning on
Wager Talk today, Man, is there a lot going on
right now?
Speaker 5 (11:29):
Kelly?
Speaker 6 (11:30):
Yeah, when VR were talking, there's a lot of moving
pieces here that we're trying to wait.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Let's start off with this game.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
I am fading arch Manning on the road today and
VR just said, every time there's a seven that pops up, boom,
they scoop it up. I have a seven and a
half in pocket on Mississippi State.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
There was a flash of an eight yesterday. I did
miss it.
Speaker 3 (11:50):
We'll see kind of what your thoughts are here on
this Texas team.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
I think they have a great defense.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
I like this Mississippi State team, but last week I
was so frustrated they had the win. Well, they had
the opportunity, excuse me, to kick the game winning field
goal in Gainesville.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
Turned the ball over. Just run the dang football.
Speaker 3 (12:09):
I need that hat. There's a hat in the round
that says that, and I need that because that's what
the Bulldog should have done last week. What are your thoughts?
I was kicking myself not taking Kentucky plus the points.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
Last week.
Speaker 3 (12:20):
Texas got taken to overtime once again by a subpar team.
I think this might be the next well, the next
team that takes him to overtime.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
How about that?
Speaker 6 (12:30):
Well, look, it'd be dogger pass for me obviously, or
I don't want to lay this number on the road
with Texas what should be a low score game. You're
talking about a Texas team, Kelly, that was outgained by
over two hundred yards last week at Kentucky. As you
mentioned that game went to overtime Kentucky, I think we
would all consider to be the weakest team in the SEC,
and Texas was never never a threat to cover the
(12:51):
spread in that game. Obviously, everyone is ripping an arch Manning.
He was over hype coming into the year. A lot
of us thought that you can go back. You mentioned
the Blitz when I announced that show over the summer.
When I announced that we would have that show, Ross
Ralph and I Andy Lang asked me, who are some
overrated teams you think? And I said, well, if arch
(13:12):
Manning's so good, why didn't he play last year?
Speaker 5 (13:13):
And I think we're out? Yeah, yeah, I mean it
wasn't like the craziest taken world.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
I know there were a lot of people with Strakesy
and thinks that he's a better quarterback. He should have
played over.
Speaker 6 (13:24):
It's not like they loved Quinn. You ers in Austin.
Here's the Here's why Mississippi State, though, did not make
my card.
Speaker 5 (13:30):
Here's why I personally am not betting Mississippi.
Speaker 6 (13:33):
State several What was it about a month ago, maybe
even a little more than a month ago. I did
bet Mississippi State and a very similar number in Starkville
against Arizona State, Texas would not be a pick. I'm
against Arizona State on a new field, they just would
not be. And so I'm wondering. There's a lot of
games today where the spots screams BP take the points.
(13:54):
But I'm looking at the number. I'm like, I don't
love this number. And I don't love this number, Kelly.
So look, I I'll tell you right now, under no
uncertain terms, that I lay it with Texas in this spot,
but I don't love the number with the cow bells.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
All right, let's get into some more of these questions.
I just saw ross the boss. He's waiting in the wings,
so we'll have him ask some more questions as well.
We're getting out of here by like eleven forty three.
That is our goal. It is a twelve minute drive
to where I want to be sitting at kickoff.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
Got it, guys, We're going to.
Speaker 6 (14:26):
Do raphic the very specific time. Ross eleven forty three Eastern.
She wants to be off.
Speaker 3 (14:31):
When Art said he wasn't coming on this morning, I
was like, perfect, you know why because I want to
get out of here early. All right, Memphis QB question?
Sorry about that? Is a Memphis quarterback playing? Why did
the line drop too?
Speaker 2 (14:41):
Flourida? What are you seen this morning?
Speaker 3 (14:43):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (14:43):
So I was.
Speaker 6 (14:44):
I saw those questions come in and I was frantically googling.
As you said, we're bringing Brian Power on. It looks
like Lewis is going to try to give it a
go here against South Florida. And on the Blitz Thursday
we talked about if Lewis plays.
Speaker 5 (14:56):
This is a great number on Memphis.
Speaker 7 (14:58):
Memphis.
Speaker 5 (14:58):
This is a team.
Speaker 6 (14:59):
Don't the coach Silverfield, but they've always been great at
the Liberty Bowl cal I think it's thirty nine and six.
They are their last forty five home games ten and
three against the number is Memphis. The last thirteen times
they've been a home doog. This is a good.
Speaker 5 (15:14):
Number that you could get. It would only again.
Speaker 6 (15:17):
This is going to be the running theme of the day, guys,
probably every question you asked me, it would be home
doog or pass for me in this situation.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
All right, home doog or pass.
Speaker 3 (15:26):
Let's get into some of these other questions. Andrew wants
to know. Are these SEC games have the wrong side?
Favorite LSU? A and M missoo Vandy. I will say this,
I have been betting against LSU all year long BP,
especially at home. I think they've been getting way too
much love. Five interceptions with Florida, thank you, guys, and
(15:46):
a wonky turnover there late with South Carolina lost that
one by the hook.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
I want to like LSU. Here are you on LSU?
Speaker 5 (15:56):
Look, here's the deal. A and M is like I
gave you.
Speaker 6 (15:59):
Go back to the preseason A and M over eight
and a half wins, was a wind till like that
was plus one fifty and that's looking good.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
They need what it had been so good at betting
unders hand up.
Speaker 3 (16:08):
I did not touch it this year, but like probably
the last five or six seasons, I've been betting consistently. Yeah,
certain games win totals unders and A and M was
one of them. I thought, all right, let's see what
Colin Kline and Mikelko can do this year. And so far,
so far I have to eat crow.
Speaker 6 (16:22):
Yeah, but they've been very luck They've been pretty lucky.
Now the final score shows that only won by three
last week against Arkansas.
Speaker 5 (16:28):
I was on Arkansas last week.
Speaker 6 (16:30):
And anyone who joined me and watched the game knows
Arkansas snuck in through the back door. But A and M, guys,
this defense has now given up forty plus twice on
the road Arkansas, and don't forget against Notre Dame. They
won against Notre Dame, Kelly, if you recall that game
because of a missed extra point or a bot, I
don't think they got the if memory got it. You
(16:52):
watch so many games they they blend together. I think
I don't think they got the extra point up. I
think they just the holder screwed it up. So you know, well,
the defense hasn't been great on the road. This is
the first time A and M is going it has
to play back to back road games, and they're laying points.
I don't think a lot of people thought they would
have been laying in Death Valley, where of course, Brian
(17:12):
Kelly nineteen and one straight up Kelly the whole night
games in that rouge. As much as I don't really
like Brian Kelly, that casey accent he tried playing off
when he got hired was that was embarrassing, But there's
a lot of he typically does well in the spot
and that thing where he danced.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
Questions right now VP, and this was from four am,
because you know we pre scheduled the show.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
I feel so seen. This was from four sixteen am.
Kelly needs going to schedule one margaering.
Speaker 3 (17:40):
To do like wow, wow, wow. I just saw that.
Because that is all the way back. We're gonna get
into some of these other questions here before we get
to Ross. I don't know, we're gonna see powers. Do
you like the over fifty two in the old Miss
Oklahoma game? Here's another SEC game that I find very
in intriguing. I think it's Oklahoma or Pass for me here.
(18:03):
I think John Mattier looked a lot better well. Also,
he didn't throw in three interceptions last week versus South Carolina.
I knew South Carolina was dead in the water in
my parlay as soon as I knew they were the
dog with Flees. I was like, well, this one's over,
and I kind of feel like Ole Miss might be
a dog with Fleees this week.
Speaker 5 (18:18):
Yeah, so something I've talked.
Speaker 6 (18:19):
I have part of the Oklahoma tied to a number
of moneyline parlays this week.
Speaker 5 (18:24):
Rather than lay the points, let's just do that.
Speaker 6 (18:25):
People can read about this game if you go to
my page right now, WT dot Buzz slash PP. But look,
here's the deal. This is an interesting situation, Kelly. You
have a top twenty five matchup where the lower ranked
team is both home and favored. There have been six
previous instances of this this season, top twenty five game
(18:46):
lower ranked team home and favored. All six of the
previous instances have seen the home favorite win and cover.
So that points well to Oklahoma, who, of course has
the number one defense in the country both yards per
play yards per game allowed. They have held all seven
opponents to season lows in total yardage, a tough spot
(19:06):
for Lane Kiffen's rebels. Kelly, I think we would all
agree on that. Back to back road games, they wilted
late against Georgia. I was very happy to see that.
So yeah, I believe Oklahoma wins this game. Now, the
question was not about the side. Lewis asked about the total.
Very interesting. Every single team in America has gone under
at least in one game. But there's one team in
America that has not gone over in a game yet
(19:28):
the season. That would be Oklahoma, Kelly. They are the
only team perfect to the under. It's probably gonna take
points to beat Ole Miss, is what I think. So
I think my tier plays well today, third game back
from injury. I think Oklahoma's gonna put up some points
in this game, and I don't love over fifty two.
Speaker 5 (19:42):
But if I had to play the total, Lewis, it's
how I play it.
Speaker 3 (19:45):
Oooh yeah, all of the games have gone under the
total this year, so kind of buyer beware. Eventually the
bookmakers are going to adjust because the public has caught up.
Let's get in a couple more of these questions. We've
got about four more minutes. Brian Power, David Thing wants
to know if you're in to pick ten this week.
I'm assuming he's in my Splash Sports pick ten. By
(20:06):
the way, there's still about a fifteen hundred dollars overlay
with less than forty minutes to go before kick, so
go get some of that dead money. Splash sports dot
Com backslash Kelly in Vegas. How would you pick a
best bet? How does Honey, that's a good question. How
does Brian Power narrow down? I know how I do it,
but I want to hear how you do it.
Speaker 6 (20:25):
Well, it's very simple. I go through every game and
the one I like the most would be my best bet.
Speaker 3 (20:29):
No, look, okay, So in David's and David's fairness, so
we started doing these weekly pick ten, which is a lot.
It's a lot of games. I don't bet ten games
on a college football Saturday. But I don't also get
to choose the game. So how it works at Splash
even though I'm a commissioner because I want to play
and I want people to play against me or with me,
or however you would like to say that, I do
(20:50):
a hands off approach. I let the guys behind the
scenes pick the games. If I got to pick the
games like case A, KU would be on that list.
If I got to pick the games like you know, Houston,
Arizona State, I think the games that I like would
be on their front and center. But they pick primarily
top twenty five games. They throw in some Thursday and
Friday games and there you have it.
Speaker 5 (21:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (21:11):
So, I mean, look, they're just I mean, you want
to like my entire how do I approach a Saturday
college football card? There's certain things I look for, obviously,
and the people know that. I talk about enough shows.
People know the kind of things I look for, and
we go from there. I mean, how do you pick
your favorite one? I mean, that's this is such a
cop on answer cup. But it's up to you. It's
(21:32):
what you're most comfortable with. I know what I'm most
comfortable with today. I have a five percent play at
wagertalk dot com, wt dot buzz SLASHVP. That's what I'm
most comfortable with. But I don't know, it's what's your
most It's a hard question for me to answer. I'm
not in the man's brain. I always tell people, you know,
you've got to come up with your own way.
Speaker 2 (21:52):
Oh, I'll say this.
Speaker 3 (21:53):
I have so that I have two entries and this
week's pick ten, I use different best bets in both.
I use Houston and one, and then I use Mississippi
State and the other because frankly, I like all three
of my dogs the same. This week, I would say
I went back and forth on how I wanted to
approach it. I used Houston as a barking dog because
I think they actually have the best opportunity to win
(22:14):
out right, right.
Speaker 5 (22:15):
Yeah, I like Houston. Yeah.
Speaker 6 (22:17):
As a matter of fact, that's another team who's winning total. Yeah,
But if they win today, I get to cash before
Halloween with Houston, Virgina and virgin And unlike Houston, Virginia
is a big favorite Bill Belichick, who could be waking
up pennyless any morning.
Speaker 3 (22:30):
Okay, I don't understand that game at all, but there's
no way I'm getting involved in North Carolina.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
But would you be shocked in the slightest to see this?
They won the game?
Speaker 4 (22:39):
Outright?
Speaker 2 (22:40):
No, I was waiting for North Carolina to do something
like that.
Speaker 6 (22:43):
So, all due respect to a good friend of mine,
Aaron Kidd, big Virginia fan, I think Virginia's about as
overrated as any team of the country. The fact that
he have to cash that bet before Halloween is absolutely insane.
But you know the two most overrated teams in the
country right now, Kelly Virginia and Georgia Tech. I saw
a lot of people asking about Iowa State because they
know Iowa State. I know what VR said in the
(23:05):
previous segment that everybody seems to be on them, but look,
they're on for a reason. I like Iowa State in
this game. I'm just gonna come out and tell you
right now. I'll tell you why I like Iowa State today, guys.
Speaker 5 (23:14):
Okay.
Speaker 6 (23:14):
It starts with the fact, yes, this is an unranked
home favorite against the top twenty five team BYU. I
would put as the number three most overrated team in
the country, Kelly, right now, behind Georgia Tech and Virginia
and the aforementioned Georgia Tech and Virginia. And from a
scheduling situation, here's what you need to understand, guys. This
is one of the great scheduling advantages any team has
had this year in college football. Iowa State, desperate off
(23:39):
of by back to back losses BYU, is playing for
a sixth consecutive week, the fourth time on the road.
I have seen this movie before, Kelly Stewart. I did
not believe in BYU last year when they were seven
and zero.
Speaker 5 (23:54):
I do not believe in BYU this year when they
are seven and zero.
Speaker 6 (23:57):
This is a team that was down by double digits
to Arizona on a team that Iowa State trounced, by
the way. And then last week, of course, they win
the Holy War against their rival Utah, a game where
Kyle Whittingham book I'm not I think kicking is for losers,
just like you, Kelly.
Speaker 3 (24:12):
But.
Speaker 5 (24:14):
I thought Utah left some points on the board.
Speaker 6 (24:17):
They were stopped three times on fourth down, and that
was kind of the difference in that game. A game
where Utah I gained BYU by one hundred yards old,
by the way.
Speaker 2 (24:26):
Oh, you know that's a game that I just here's
the thing.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
I think both of the little teams are a little
tiny bit overrated there. I would say, no, no, no,
Apparently you did not see my power ratings of teams
that I hate the most.
Speaker 2 (24:41):
I did on Kelly and Murray Nebraska Texas. What I
would say, it wasn't even in the top fifteen. Settle Down,
settle Down, Cyclone, Drew, settle Down.
Speaker 6 (24:48):
Okay, I would say Iowa State, Cyclone, Drew and all
their respect. I have them once upon a time as
my most overrated team in the country.
Speaker 5 (24:56):
As a matter of fact, I mentioned I have a
five percent today.
Speaker 6 (25:00):
My last five percent play in college football was against
Iowa State when they were undefeated, number eleven in the
country at unranked Cincinnati, and guess what happened there? Cincinnati
handed it to Iowa State. Yes, this is a what
comes around goes around the proverbial shoe on the other
foot situation.
Speaker 3 (25:19):
Fair enough, All right, we're running a little behind schedule
and those margaritas are calling my name, so we're gonna
answer one more question before we bring in. Ross Winning
wants to know Kelly, can you ask MEP what dogs.
Speaker 2 (25:30):
Are on his radar today?
Speaker 5 (25:32):
And if you want, I'll go real quick, Kelly. I promise.
Speaker 6 (25:34):
If you guys want longer breakdowns on these, you could
check the Power five. I like Louisiana against your favorite team, Troy.
I like Houston against Arizona State. I like Kentucky against Tennessee.
I think Michigan's lay into I get it. I know
that there's some sharp my image. But if you get
fourteen and a half with Michigan State in a rivalry game,
(25:54):
I would take that as well. Wake Forest against SMU
that is obviously the sandwich spot of all sandwich spots
for SMU. So those are just a few underdogs that
I like. I saw someone asking about Auburn Arkansas. I
joked on the Blitz. The only way I'll leave you
with this, The only way that game could end is
(26:15):
for it to go to triple overtime. Teams have to
trade two and they both spontaneously combust. Those are the
two unluckiest teams in the history of college football.
Speaker 5 (26:27):
I do stand how they find ways to lose.
Speaker 3 (26:29):
Right now, the Blitz that means Rossel, Oh, Yes, bride power,
Ralph Michaels, You guys have a thirty day all sports
all access for one ninety nine. That makes it under
seven dollars a day. Please let everybody know where they
can get that, please.
Speaker 5 (26:45):
Well, they can get a w T dot buzz slash BP.
Speaker 6 (26:47):
I'm a little preferential that page, but Russell probably tell
you to go to WT Dot Buzz slash rb up next.
And that's okay too, because I think the way they
have it, we're sharing in all the revenue anyway. So yeah,
take advantage of that deal.
Speaker 5 (26:59):
Guys.
Speaker 6 (26:59):
I do have I know I've said it three times,
let's make it four. I do have a five percent play.
The reason I'm saying it so many times they're rare.
I've had three, only three five percent place since September one, Kelly,
And guess.
Speaker 5 (27:11):
What I won all of them?
Speaker 6 (27:13):
Falcons are the Vikings in the NFL, Cincinnati over Iowa
Stateton College, and then we had the Cubs over the
Brewers in my only five percent so far in the
Major League Baseball playoffs.
Speaker 5 (27:23):
So five percent play WT dot bus slash PP.
Speaker 3 (27:25):
Love that I will be going over there, But first
we got to get in Ross, Benjamin, And yes I
did wear this shirt on Wednesday during my best bat
segment because I'm wearing it today.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
I found it amongst everything else.
Speaker 3 (27:38):
I never I'm like, I keep nothing, Ross, like I
am like the anti horder, I'm like, just get rid
of things. But I have had this shirt for probably
like twenty years.
Speaker 7 (27:48):
Yeah. Well, I figured we were going to talk about
that a little bit, you know.
Speaker 3 (27:52):
Well, wasn't I get it because I weren't of the
best bat segment and battle it So people are gonna
say something, eh, But yes, I decided I'm gonna wear
it today because how fitting. Who doesn't want less Jayhawks
in their lives? Ross, I think we've talked about this
game at nauseum so We're just gonna go. Jay Buff
wants one of those wager Talk golf shirts. You know
what I'm thinking about when we do different tiers for
the wager Talk insiders, if you are at the higher tier,
(28:14):
then you're going to get a wager Talk polo.
Speaker 2 (28:16):
But we haven't got that far yet.
Speaker 3 (28:18):
But if you want to be a wager Talk insider,
WT Dot Buzz Backslash Insiders, just two dollars and ninety
nine it's a month gets you all the early access
to all things wager Talk.
Speaker 2 (28:28):
Russ. You guys have been crushing on the Blitz.
Speaker 3 (28:31):
Been loving watching the show on Thursday afternoons, and it's
because I love college football and it is just a
strictly college football show. But we're gonna get some of
these questions because you guys go over a lot of
things on that show, but this show strictly wanted to
ask the audience. Jay Buff wants to know Illinois Washington.
I thought this was kind of an interesting play here.
I didn't end up getting involved on Washington, but it's
(28:53):
Illinois the square dog here.
Speaker 7 (28:55):
Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 8 (28:56):
I talked about this on wager Talk to Day with
Andy on Wednesday, and we do a segment. It's called
this line makes no sense, And this is the game
I talked about. You got a Washington team, it's a
four and a half point favorite, I think, against Illinois,
who's the number twenty three team in the country. To me,
(29:20):
when these types of situations happen, this is a sure
sign to me. They're actually down to three and a
half right now, and Illinois is catching money. Obviously, the
ranked team is an underdog against a team that I
believe has lost three games going in, and I just
think it's a sucker play to take the favorite in
(29:40):
this situation. And there's got to be a reason why
they opened. They opened as a favorite, they moved to
like four and a half, and then they're down to
three and a half, so they opened at five. Actually,
now they're down to three and a half, and a
lot of that to me is public money, So I would.
Speaker 7 (29:57):
I would.
Speaker 8 (29:57):
It's not part of my card, but it just looks
like a trap to me. And at three and a half,
that's an even better number. You could actually get a
three and lay one twenty five at bet online right now,
So I would lean toward Washington in this spot.
Speaker 3 (30:12):
Kelly, all right, let's get into some of these college
football questions that we didn't answer with BP ross. Do
you do a lot of totals? Ucla Indiana over? This
is another game that I just didn't really get involved in.
Ucla has been playing such better football over the last
few weeks since after they fired their head coach. Indiana
(30:33):
still with Kirk Signetti. We know he's going to keep
his foot on the gas. I will say this, taking
it under there seems rather nauseating.
Speaker 8 (30:42):
Yeah, I don't have a strong opinion here. I don't
see UCLA being able to slow down Indiana's offense. And
this line speaks volumes to me because this would look
like a flat spot ordinarily for Indiana, Ucla off three
straight wins. I'm going to stay away from this game.
(31:02):
In terms of the over, I would think that might
be the way to go, or maybe a better option,
maybe going over Indiana's team total.
Speaker 3 (31:11):
Ooh, Indiana team total over is an interesting play. That's
what's so great now with the market Ross and how
things have started to evolve. When I first started betting sports,
you basically got sides and totals.
Speaker 4 (31:22):
Yep, Super Bowl you got all.
Speaker 3 (31:25):
The good stuff, right, And now this market has just
ever changed. So guys, something to really consider it if
you if you like the over because of one team,
maybe look towards their team total. Cody Butler wants to
know your thoughts on Auburn at Arkansas.
Speaker 7 (31:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 8 (31:39):
I think Brian hit it right on and knows we
talked about this game. I want to say at length,
but jokingly so because these are two teams that can't
get out of their own way. Auburn's you know, they
create and invent ways to lose games, So I don't
trust them. Arkansas their defense leeves a lot to be desired.
(32:01):
But could Auburn's offense, which is their weak link, expose that?
Speaker 7 (32:06):
I don't think.
Speaker 8 (32:07):
So this is a game. I just think there's a
lot better value on the board than these two teams
that are, just like Brian alluded to, seemed to self combust.
Speaker 3 (32:20):
Okay, let's talk about value on the board, right. I
know you've got some plays up right now a wager
talk dot com. We just mentioned that with you and
Brian Power. So if you guys are looking to get
on board with one or both of those guys, they
have a blitz only special with Ralph Michael's Thirty Days
all access for one ninety nine under seven because it'll
(32:42):
be under seven dollars per day gets you that coupon
co wt Dot buzzbackslash RB. Well, let's talk about a
couple of those value plays that maybe Major Card or
maybe you gave out as a free play on either
wager Talk Today or the wager Talk Free Picks page.
Speaker 8 (32:56):
Okay, well, let's take a look at Georgia Tech. You know,
this seems everybody's saying Georgiat West. Seems like everybody's saying
Georgia Tech's an overrated team. And you know there's some
credence to that when you look at some of the
close calls they've had. They're not a team that wells
(33:17):
you wo blowout wins. However, this is a really good
situation for Georgia Tech. This Syracuse team is hurting right now.
They played good defensively last week against pitt However, you're
looking at Ricky Collins at quarterback for Syracuse. It's a
huge difference. When they went from Angelly to Ricky Collins
(33:39):
after three games, Angelly was a top passer in the country.
He gets hurt in the second half of the Clemson game.
Ricky Collins has made three starts, He's thrown seven interceptions.
The Orange have turned the ball over nineteen times. And
when you look at the quarterback comparison here, heines King
to me. I said it on the college football preview
(34:02):
show I did with Teddy over at the Westgate. I
think Aines King was going to be the best quarterback
in the ACC. And I stick to my guns on that.
I'm sure there will be some arguments against that, but
that's okay. That's the way I feel right now. This
kid just knows how to get it done. He could
beat you with his arm, he could beat you with
his legs. I just don't think Syracuse could do enough
(34:24):
offensively here, and they'll wear down and said their defense
will wear down in the second half because their inability
is to sustained drives. So it's now down to sixteen
and a half at FanDuel and seventeen at other places.
I wouldn't hesitate to lay as much as eighteen on
(34:44):
Georgia Tech here against Syracuse.
Speaker 3 (34:47):
All right, let's talk about a couple of these other
games from the chat ross. One of the games that
we haven't touched on was SMU Wake Forest. Now, I
thought it was interesting Mark what I do a show
called on it on Wednesdays, and he said, here is
your sandwich spot. But now it opened three and a half,
now all the way up to six and a half.
Speaker 2 (35:07):
What are we missing here?
Speaker 8 (35:09):
I don't know what we're missing because wake Forest has
been extremely competitive. I mentioned Georgia Tech and one of
the scares they had was against the same wake Forest team.
And I think wake Forest is definitely overachieved, but by
the same token, like Marco brought up and Brian brought up,
this is a sandwich game, and I think that this
(35:31):
is also, you know, a perfect example of a team
with the better brand name. Because SMU fresh in everybody's
mind college football playoffs last year. Wake Forest not exactly
the kremdittle Krem of college football the last couple of years.
(35:51):
If you do like SMU, you lost a lot of
value with this move. So I would lean toward a
very small lean toward wake Forest in the spot getting
the points at home. I we got.
Speaker 3 (36:04):
About six minutes before I got to get out of here,
so I can you know.
Speaker 2 (36:09):
Get to getting ross. How about this? Give us some
dogs you like today winning.
Speaker 3 (36:14):
Let's know, everybody watches the show I hope because they
like underdogs winning outright as much as I do.
Speaker 2 (36:19):
What are some upsets you see potentially brewing?
Speaker 8 (36:22):
Yeah, Northwestern at Nebraska. This game goes at noon Eastern time.
I don't know how you could have faith in Nebraska
as a single digit favor. They've failed miserably on each
occasion when they've been in that situation. Northwestern five and two,
three and one in a Big Ten. Talk about a
(36:42):
team that's overachieved and their defense is extremely good. Northwestern.
I just don't trust Nebraska as a favorite in the spot.
I would lean heavily toward the underdog Northwestern. Let me
go through a couple more games here, Kelly, if you
want to give me.
Speaker 7 (37:01):
Here's the other one. BYU.
Speaker 8 (37:04):
I know you guys talked about this. Look Ordinarily, I
have a contrarian mindset where if I see a team
like Iowa State, who's I believe a three loss team
at this point two losses at least as a two
and a half point favored over an undefeated, highly ranked team,
I would jump all over Iowa State.
Speaker 7 (37:26):
I'm not going to do that.
Speaker 8 (37:27):
I think BYU is the way to go here. I
think that this will only motivate them when they look
and see that they're an underdog against an Iowa State
team that's really vastly underachieved or disappointed their preseason projection.
So I would look at BYU in this spot. Memphis.
(37:49):
I did text you guys that this line has come
down to three, three and a half.
Speaker 7 (37:55):
I got on.
Speaker 8 (37:55):
Memphis at five. Look, here's the thing South Florida is.
I'm not going to try to poke holes in their resume.
I mean, their one lone loss came against Miami and
they were blown out in that game. Yeah, they beat Boise,
but that's not a Boise team that is as good
as they've been in years past. They're still pretty good,
but they're not a college football playoff type of team
(38:17):
like they were a year ago. And the second game
they beat Florida as an eighteen and a half point underdog.
Speaker 7 (38:24):
Everybody was shocked by that.
Speaker 8 (38:25):
But now where we see Florida is at this stature,
it doesn't look anywhere near as impressive now as it
did then. And Memphis got caught looking ahead last week
as a huge underdog against a UAB team that went
through a head coaching change during the week leading up
to the game. I just think Memphis is going to
(38:47):
come up big here. Look, one loss and they control
their own destiny as far as the American Conference goes,
because if they can knock off Florida South Florida in
this spot, they they have Navy and Tulane left in
two of their last four games. I just think urgency
and desperation lies with the Memphis Tigers here.
Speaker 7 (39:11):
You can get them at three and a half.
Speaker 8 (39:12):
You can get the hook here, which is key because
I think this is a close game that goes down
to the Warrior. Would not be shocked at all the
c Memphis win this game.
Speaker 2 (39:21):
All right.
Speaker 3 (39:21):
I'm getting a lot of people mad at me because
I did not repeat the art sharp square public total,
so I will do that. I'm gonna wait a couple
minutes after Ross gets done, and I will definitely share those.
Speaker 2 (39:35):
But Ross here a curious question. This is a game that.
Speaker 3 (39:38):
I feel like it's kind of flown under the radar.
We talked about for a second with BP. He kind
of said, hey, look, Brian Kelly, Death Valley at Night
LSU is possibly the play I've been so low on
anm all season long. I have lost money betting against
them twice. Now I don't know if I can lose
money betting against a third time. Do you think LSU
(39:59):
is the right.
Speaker 8 (40:00):
I wouldn't bet against them. I wouldn't bet against Texas
A and M. I mean, here's the thing Brian mentioned.
They're nineteen and one straight up at home at night
with Brian Kelly in charge. The bottom line is is
if you look at those twenty games, I believe seventeen
of them they were a double digit favored or more.
(40:22):
That's not the case here. And look, if you don't
think like an odds maker at times in this business,
you're one step behind the eight ball. There's a reason
why Texas A and M is a favorite on the
road against LSU. Kelly, I was extremely high on LSU
before the season began. As a matter of fact, I
picked them to win the SEC. They still can, but
(40:45):
I just don't try. I mean, their offense to me
has been vastly, vastly disappointed. And Brian mentioned Texas A
and M. They were exposed on a couple occasions this
year against Arkansas and Notre Dame in terms of the offensively,
but LSU does not present the same challenges offensively, and
(41:05):
this Texas A and M team can move the ball
on anybody. I just think this is a game where
the LSU offense will be their biggest enigma and their
defense will wear down late. I like small home, the
small road favored in this spot. As a matter of fact,
if you can get one forty or less on the
money line, that's the route I would go. I'm a
(41:28):
big proponent of that, because, look, there's nothing worse than
having a team that won but they didn't cover because
they only won by one or two points. So I
would take Texas A and M money line at minus one.
Speaker 7 (41:42):
Forty or less.
Speaker 8 (41:43):
Otherwise I wouldn't hesitate to late a two and a
half here.
Speaker 3 (41:46):
All right, great stuff from Ross, Benjamin Ross. What do
you have to promote before we get you out of here?
And yes, guys, I'm going to repeat those art needs
for you. Guys, I'm gonna be late all for you.
Speaker 8 (41:58):
You're welcome, all right, So we got the special for me,
Ralph and Brian that you already alluded to.
Speaker 7 (42:06):
Also, folks, college.
Speaker 8 (42:08):
Football, you know, number one and win percentage last year,
Number one in units earned last year, up one hundred
and twelve units in college football since September ninth of
twenty twenty three. When it lasts that long, you know,
and it's that good, it's not a fluke started. And
(42:29):
this season I'm off to a twenty one and eleven start,
sixty five percent up thirty one units number two because
Gianni is just killing it in college football because he's
a volume player and he's winning and God bless him.
But still pretty good season so far in college football, folks,
And the best of all is all sports. I'm up
(42:52):
one hundred and thirty four units plus since May thirteenth
of this year. Right now, fourteen ninety excuse me, nineteen
ninety nine is a three hundred and sixty five day
all access pass. If you purchase that for me and
you put in the code save five hundred at checkout,
we'll take that down to fourteen ninety nine.
Speaker 7 (43:14):
Not only will it go down to fourteen ninety nine.
Speaker 8 (43:16):
Kelly, but for the entirety of that three hundred and
sixty five days, whoever purchased that package for me, they're
also going to get a twenty five percent bonus coupon
that they could use toward any other purchase on any
other of the great experts over at Wagertalk dot com.
And if that doesn't suit you, you can get the
rest of twenty twenty five all sports right now for
(43:40):
five hundred and ninety dollars one hundred and seventy six
dollars off. It'll take you right through December thirty first,
and my MBA is off to a three and oh start,
and MBA is on a seventeen and five run going
back to the beginning of last year. In college basketball
starts next week, Kelly.
Speaker 3 (43:56):
College basketball starts next week. I'm so excited. You are
absolutely correct.
Speaker 2 (44:01):
Ross All right, we're gonna get Ross the Boss out
of here.
Speaker 3 (44:03):
You guys can catch him every single Thursday, one pm
Eastern right here live on the wager Talking YouTube channel
Brian Power, Ralph Michael's All Things college Football. So thank you, Ross,
WT Dot buzz Backslashy.
Speaker 2 (44:17):
Of course get on board with Ross.
Speaker 3 (44:18):
I promise you guys, I would repeat this needs from
the Westgate Super Book Art and Caesar said, they're gonna
need South Carolina, they're gonna need Cincinnati, they're gonna need Pittsburgh,
they're gonna need Minnesota, and they booked it to need Alabama.
That one was kind of crazy for me, what they
saw that was sharp Utah, Illinois, Colorado State, Texas, and Wisconsin.
(44:41):
He also said they have a very sharp totals guy
who's been killing it the last five weeks. Boston College
under fifty five and a half, n C State under
fifty five and a half, Wake Forest under fifty four
and a half, Troy under forty eight and a half,
FAU over sixty three, Arkansas State under sixty and a half,
Nebraska under forty four and a half. Public sides Baylor, Syracuse, SMU,
(45:05):
and Nebraska. Art says his favorite play today nebrassa or
excuse me, Iowa State minus two and a half. I
hope everybody has a profitable Saturday Back tomorrow, Aeriel Epstein,
Yanni the Greek, of course, John Murray's gonna be popping in,
and David Delano is gonna be joining us for the
first time here on the program to answer all of
(45:26):
your NFL questions. If you guys are a Wager Talk insider,
WT Dot Buzz Backslash Insiders a joint, you guys can
follow up right after last call enjoining the steam room
with Yanni the Greek go over all of those last
minute NFL plays, sides, totals, teasers.
Speaker 2 (45:41):
You have it. Hope you guys have a great day
in Go Cats.
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