Last Call LIVE | MLB Picks & Predictions | NFL Preseason Picks | Saturday, August 9

We have an absolutely loaded betting slate with NFL Preseason & MLB on tap for today. We discuss what the market moves have been and where can we take advantage to win.

Join Steve Merril, Gianni the Greek, Teddy Covers & Ross Benjamin as they give their best picks and critical steam moves! Drop your questions in the chat to have them answered during the live stream!

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
One.

Speaker 2 (00:03):
Hey, it's last call, Saturday, August the ninth, and this
is a very special episode. No aerial Epstein's not here.
That's not why it's special. I am Steve Merril filling in.
But we have three guests today. The four of us
combined have been handicapping each for four decades since the nineties.
At a minimum, this might be the first show in
wager Talk history where everybody on board, the entire show

(00:23):
has been here for four plus decades each. Johnny the Greek,
Teddy covers Ross, the Boss, Benjamin, and once again, I'm
Steve Merril. This is an action packed episode for Saturday,
August ninth. Are going to talk baseball, NFL preseasons here
and we're also going to get the Steam Report right
off the top. Let's start with the Steam Report as
and I know you might throw some other sports in there.
You've got WNBA, you've got UFC at times.

Speaker 3 (00:44):
What are you looking at here on Saturday? Yeah?

Speaker 4 (00:46):
I have so much information for you today, Steve. I've
been banging since five am. Man, it's not three hours
and we've just betten, betten everywhere. I knew it was
going to be a busy day, my man, block. Welcome
to the party, brother, hope you crush it today real quickly.
Let me pass along a couple PFELL fights that go
off this morning. I sent out five PFL bets to
my subscribers. One of them's a four percent bet. It's

(01:07):
at wagertalk dot com for free. So if you go
to wage of Talk there's a free picks page, or
on my page, there's a four percent PFL fight that's
there for free bet through multiple counts, multiple groups on
the same side also gave out three to two percent
plays in this PFL card that goes off in about

(01:27):
five minutes, in an hour. Forgive me, it's at noon Eastern.
It's only the what's it called eleven am on the
East coast, it's eight am here. Here's the other three
that I gave out two percent plays premium plays, but
two percent with Sambi Adashina Adashena minus one sixty, Osulano

(01:49):
Benedido Benedido at even money, and then British Bolo Yarny.
It's in Africa, so that little name is a little difficult.
I'm crushing these names forgive me at minus one twenty,
so those are two percent plays. And then there is
a four percent play over at wager talk dot com.
I also like Dwight Joseph that got steamed that minus

(02:12):
two hundred, but by the time I was going to
give it out it got up to minus two fifty.

Speaker 5 (02:16):
It's probably minus three hundred by now.

Speaker 4 (02:18):
So I passed on that, but just wanted to pass
that or wrong, So sorry Steve to jump out ahead
of you. Just wanted to get those PFLs because I
thought it was noon Eastern, but they got an hour,
So no rush to say.

Speaker 2 (02:30):
I named all those sports trying to figure out what
you might cover, and then you throw PFL out there.
I had to remember what that stood for. Professional Fighters League.
If I'm not mistaken, because I know's year, I probably
don't know what it stands for. I didn't know until
a couple of months ago. What else are you looking
at here on Saturday?

Speaker 3 (02:45):
What else?

Speaker 4 (02:45):
Okay, obviously it's NFL, NFL. All all the focuses on
NFL today. The early game is about to go off
at what one pm Eastern? I can tell you New
York Giants at plus three is the sharp side. New
York Giants up the plus three laying a little juice
to get that plus three. I was able to get

(03:07):
it at minus one twenty two and a half per
much at even money at most places. If you agree
with it the Giants, that line's probably still available.

Speaker 5 (03:16):
A couple other.

Speaker 4 (03:17):
NFL steam moves. We've been seeing some big line moves,
so once it gets through some key numbers, you want
to be careful piggyback and steam. We saw that in
the first day with the Eagles covering that number after
Cincinnati moved, but yesterday the opposite New England did get.

Speaker 5 (03:34):
The job done.

Speaker 4 (03:35):
So closing line value does matter. And here's a couple
of those signs that are sharp in preseason one twenty
three Tennessee minus one and a half. That's why you're
looking at a key number of three one twenty seven
Kansas City minus one and a half.

Speaker 5 (03:49):
Same reason you're looking at minus.

Speaker 4 (03:51):
Three one thirty one over thirty three Miami Chicago, which
is why it's thirty five and a half have been
under thirty seven Saints rngers. The reason that's only moved
about a half a point is because the early steam
went over. I'm with the group of guys that came
in on the under after that adjustment, so those are
some of the NFL moves that we were able to

(04:15):
get ahead up. Some other steam moves that I was
not able to get ahead up one to eighteen Minnesota.
They laid minus one and a half and two on Minnesota.
Game one twenty they laid up the two on Jacksonville.

Speaker 5 (04:28):
And what else was it?

Speaker 4 (04:30):
Oh, Tennessee one twenty three Tennessee also minus one and
a half and two on Tennessee. You notice they bet
those minus ones that moved through that key number or
up to that key number of three.

Speaker 5 (04:42):
That's where they backed off.

Speaker 4 (04:43):
So you got to be cautious there because three is
just such a key number. We're talking about preseason right now.
If you don't get out ahead of the market, you
may be better off just waiting to get your money
down a little bit better cause again, like you don't
want to be taking the worst of it. I talked
about it and yesterday's wager to talk today where with
even the New England game, there was only one question.
When the game goes from minus one to minus six,

(05:04):
you can't lay the favorite anymore. The only question is
is there now value on the underdog? You never want
to be the one laying that's six because even if
they do cover and win by ten, you didn't place
a good bet. And if you get into that habit
because you think it's going to be a blowout and
not really paying attention that the line has already moved significantly,
you're not getting your money in good and that's the

(05:24):
goal if you're trying to make money doing this again,
the ultimate goal is to cash tickets. But sometimes you
could place a bad bet and cash a ticket, and
that gets you into the habit of being okay with
placing bad bets, and you just don't want to do that.

Speaker 2 (05:41):
Yeah, you know, you and Andy Lang had a great
discussion a couple of weeks ago on that on wager
Talk today, and I was on afterwards.

Speaker 3 (05:48):
I saw it afterwards, and I.

Speaker 2 (05:50):
Agree with what both you were saying, but I was
on your side more and that I hadn't talked to
Andy said, you know about closing line value, You're never
gonna You're never gonna win less games in the long run,
beating closing line values.

Speaker 3 (06:01):
That's the best quote.

Speaker 4 (06:02):
I need to write that down because you said that before, Yeah,
and I tried to remember it and because it would.

Speaker 2 (06:07):
Kill me when I was waivery to hopefully say it
in that segment, because I think that's the best thing
to say, is that you're always going to win more
bets by having a better number. It's mathematically impossible. But
where I think where Andy was saying, he just didn't
say it the way I would have said it, is
that it could still.

Speaker 3 (06:21):
Be a good bet.

Speaker 2 (06:21):
For example, say a team should be at minus ten
point favorite. You get him at minus three, it's a
great bet. You still get him at minus six, it's
still a solid bet, right, And even if that's the
closing line, if you really think the true line is ten,
so you can have the best of both worlds, but
it's always better to have the better number. I think
that's where I kind of got lost a little bit.

Speaker 4 (06:38):
Yeah, I agree, like and it's hard to argue that
the closing line is not more efficient than the opening line, correct,
you know what I mean, just because you have more
information by the time the line closes, so it should
be more accurate of the true implied win probability. Again,
if you don't know a player's injured early in the week,

(06:59):
but he's hurt later in the week, that's going to
adjust the line. So like that closing line is going
to be more efficient if you don't know it's going
to be raining, snowing, or windy on Saturday five days prior,
that will affect the betting line, the total. Like so again,
it's it's hard to argue that. It's kind of hard
to you know, in twenty twenty five, it's strange that

(07:19):
we're still arguing whether closing line value is going to
give you a mathematical edge.

Speaker 5 (07:25):
It's hard.

Speaker 4 (07:25):
I can't understand why we're still arguing, like just little
things like that. You would think that by now, you know,
everybody realizes that, yeah, it kind of matters.

Speaker 5 (07:35):
To get a good line.

Speaker 4 (07:36):
But you know, again, people are they still argue that
parlays is the way to go, you know.

Speaker 6 (07:40):
What I mean.

Speaker 3 (07:41):
I think the one you could say.

Speaker 4 (07:42):
Is have to place it at the same time at
the same property, and it's hard to get the best
line that way.

Speaker 2 (07:47):
Yeah, that's the And you know that's my big argument
against parlays too, is you got to be you have
five or you should have five or six sports books
and you have to get the same number at the
same sports book on both plays, which is very unlikely.
That's why long term. That's not a realistic strategy, and
if you're back testing that it's full gold because you're
not really looking at the actual sport. By the way,
something you did mention on the closing line value I
thoroughly agreed with because you and I think alike with

(08:08):
the financial market correlations is on the closing price in
the stock market, commodity, whatever you want to look at
you're doing back testing, I'm usually using the closing price
for my back test because the closing price, once again
takes everything into account more than the opening price or
even the midday price, because you have no news and
information and it's going to be down for several hours.
So once again, the closing price and the financial markets,

(08:29):
the closing price in the sports betting markets is always
the most efficient price. Let me ask you about these
NFL line moves, though, one thing I will say about
closing line values, it probably is not as important as
ten years ago because I think the opening numbers are
sharper now than they weren't ten years ago, and the
midday numbers are sharper and they get corrected sooner. As
you've pointed out all the time with your Steam report,
these NFL lines just continue to move. It's crazy what

(08:52):
we see. The Ravens obviously went from a one point
favorite six point dog. They went outright. We see Cleveland
get heavy bet against they win by twenty. But the
other two big line moves last night they went easy.
You have to make your I guess. The bottom line
is what I said earlier. You have to have your
own true number right, and if there's still value, there's value.
You have to know what the numbers should be and
not worry about all this other stuff.

Speaker 4 (09:12):
Yeah, and you also got to keep in mind that
where we are and right now in the NFL season,
the books are also guessing a bit, you know what
I mean, Like they don't have the information they're going
to have in the regular season. And we see that
with MMA all the time. Like that, the NFL markets
so efficient. We're just not accustomed to seeing it without
injuries or something significant. But we see it in the

(09:33):
MMA market all the time, where the first book that
goes to market, they'll bring out Fighter as the favorite,
and if you look at the line move, would in
two minutes it flips and Fighter B becomes the favorite,
and it keeps climbing towards Fighters be's position. So there's
going to be those inefficiencies. They're going to get it
wrong sometimes, and that's where that comes into play. Like
you said, if you already have your number, what you're

(09:56):
think you should be shopping at, then your gold. It's
kind of like I say, if you're gonna go shopping
for a car, you're not gonna go blindly shopping for
a car. You're gonna have already done a little research
and going in with a price in your head of
what I should be paying for it. You're not gonna
walk in the guy's gonna tell it's fifty four thousand.
You're gonna be like, Okay, I'll take it, whether not
knowing whether I should only be paying forty four, whether
I'm getting a great deal I should be paying sixty four,

(10:17):
You're gonna have done that research a little bit before.
And I think it's the same with sports betting, like
you need to get out ahead of the matchups a
little bit, not wait till game date, have an idea
of what.

Speaker 5 (10:28):
The line you should be.

Speaker 4 (10:29):
And you can't do that for every sport because I
don't know every team and every market, but the ones
you do know, like at least for those, try to
write down your own line before you ever look up,
because you may determine sometimes that they're just way off.
And you know, if you trust your number, you're gonna
find some value that way.

Speaker 2 (10:47):
And I'll get some baseball from you here in a
moment before we leave. But I'll point this out. It's preseasons, tough.
Preseasons totally information based. It's a completely different handicap obviously
than the regular season. But the best advice I could
give new betters for this football season, and before you
look at a point spread on Sunday whenever they come
out Sunday afternoon Sunday night for the next week, make
your own numbers. I've been doing this since the nineties,

(11:08):
and it's harder now not to see the numbers right away.
Back in the day, it was easy not to see them.
You can do your own work and then check them.
Now they're everywhere. They're popping up on your phone probably,
but you start seeing the numbers and thinking that's the
true number. You have to have a number beforehand. And
it's the best advice I can give young handicappers is
make your own number. What do you think it should be?
What you think it might be and what it should be,
and then you'll know where it doesn't look right, and

(11:30):
then when it moves, you'll know if is there's still
value latter in the week or not if you can
play it. I mean, is this something you've done as well?
You make your own numbers.

Speaker 4 (11:36):
Always, And I was taught that from really young, you know,
when I first broke in and it was every guys
were talking about power ratings and I didn't even understand
what they were. And then that was explained to me,
and I was searching for the sharpest power ratings and
trying to learn how to create my own. And it's
just a process that you start to learn from different guys.

(11:58):
And I am totally in the practice of doing that
for every sport that I'm confident in, Like, I have
never looked at the UFC lines without having already written
down my numbers because I realized I used to get
biased before I had the confidence it would bias me.
Or now I look up and I'm like, oh, wait,
I think fighter A should be favored, not fight er B.

(12:19):
And a lot of times what happens is the line
closes with fighter A as the favorite, and I'm like Okay,
I was correct. You start to have confidence when you
see that, and you start being willing to bet your
opinion and your numbers the more you see that the
line's following what you're saying. Even do it paper trading.
You don't have to put up your own money. Just
practice that. Write them down for today's NFL or week

(12:40):
one NFL what you think the lines should be, today's
UFC what you think the line should be, or next
week's pay per view, and then compare yours and see
does the market move in my direction or way from me?
And what are the end results? Like, you can do
that without risking your capital. You can practice that. Again,
you're not gonna emotion only. It's you're not going to

(13:02):
be like when you're betting real money. But you can
still put your theories in the practice. You can still,
like you like to say, back test it and see, like,
am I on the right road to creating good numbers?

Speaker 5 (13:15):
Like does my opinion? Is it on point?

Speaker 4 (13:18):
And I think that's the best way you could do it.
Write down what you think the line should be and
then compare it.

Speaker 2 (13:23):
Yeah, I'm big on paper trading for both financial markets,
and you can do it in the sports betting markets.
One thing I'll add, though, is that it's so important
to have a little skin in the game. I'd recommend
even putting a dollar down on each place. Honestly, a
single dollar or five dollars, it's ever going to make
you somewhat take it serious where you don't just brush
it off that Sunday night, of that Saturday night for
the next week. And you know, I tell yourself, if

(13:43):
I get a two or three point difference, I'm putting
five dollars on that game every week, even if it's
ten games. You'll have some action. You probably have some
fun with it. You have some action bets, and it'll
make you take it serious because you don't have to
go out there and start betting five hundred thousand dollars
a game until you fine tune your skills. And that's
the same thing with the financial markets. Johnny, I'll let
you run here.

Speaker 3 (13:59):
But what else?

Speaker 2 (14:00):
You got one on basebunny things jump out there?

Speaker 5 (14:01):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (14:02):
Before game one yesterday, two series bets got steamed. I
released one of the subscribers because I liked it.

Speaker 3 (14:08):
The New York.

Speaker 4 (14:09):
Yankees at minus one oh five, they actually, you know,
they lost game one, So for us to win that bet,
they got to win today and they gotta win Sunday.
We didn't bet them in Game one, even though they
did get steamed on screen, we didn't touch that sign.

Speaker 5 (14:21):
We just have them for the series.

Speaker 4 (14:23):
So we need the Yankees today, and the Yankees actually
did get steamed to day at plus one oh five
and even money. They also bet Tampa Bay before Game
one Tampa Bay plus one sixty. They also lost Game one,
so now Tampa Bay's got to win the next two
where that series bet is lost. As far as signs
for today, nine to fifty six, Pittsburgh plus one oh five,
even money, nine sixty two, Saint Louis at even money,

(14:45):
nine sixty three, Colorado plus two hundred and plus one
and a half on the run line, New York Yankees,
I gave you, and then nine seventy four Minnesota plus
one oh five.

Speaker 5 (14:54):
So if you notice, it's.

Speaker 4 (14:55):
All those short dogs where it seems like coin flip
kind of games, and the favorite side that's going a
little higher seems to be giving a little value to
these coin flip dogs. Only one total two totals that
stuck out nine to seventy three over eight and a
half even money Kansas City, Minnesota, and nine to sixty
nine under ten up to minus one twenty five Athletics,

(15:19):
and Baltimore.

Speaker 5 (15:20):
I don't have a lot of volume in MLB.

Speaker 4 (15:22):
I only gave you the signs and the totals that
I saw confirmation, like multiple groups on those sides. Because again,
with so much going on today and the sports books,
you know, having to pay attention to everything, there'll be
a lot of manipulation going on, especially in baseball.

Speaker 5 (15:37):
Where they can move these money lines all over the place.

Speaker 2 (15:39):
Yeah, it's something to keep in mind, you know. With
more sports on the book of the board, more manipulation
occurs in some of these other sports. Johnny the Greek,
you find him obviously today at eleven am Eastern here
on last call, but every Monday through Friday at noon eastern,
not in Pacific your time, since you've been up at
five am. That's Pacific time. I hope, I hope it
wasn't five am Eastern.

Speaker 5 (15:57):
No, No, no, no, what.

Speaker 2 (16:00):
Else you got go on? What you got going on
at wait to talk anything else? And they do the
steam room. I think you had that.

Speaker 4 (16:07):
He was a yes, we had that yesterday. We had
that yesterday. It was a really good time, went over
a lot. So I have my UFC package up. There'll
be more plays in there today. Already have a couple
including four percent best bets. Baseball package will be up
within the next thirty minutes. We don't have WNBA today.
We isolated another bet yesterday that got the w Those
are We're very selective with those. And of course I

(16:29):
have my NFL preseason package for Saturday and for Sunday,
and I have the futures up as well. NFL College
Football combo package with futures and week won College Football's
already up three bets. I think we released already in
that package. So busy time, man. Hope you guys have
a great weekend through some damage today.

Speaker 2 (16:48):
You've also got two free plays for college football on
your page right now as I'm looking at it, in
advance for the mid August and then also an NFL
regular season free play an MMA free play for tonight.
I mean, that's not a reason four free plays right there.
Go to his page, Johnny the Greek wager Talk dot
com and you can catch him again this Monday at
noon Easter with Andy lying here on Wager talk today.

Speaker 3 (17:08):
He's get back to work.

Speaker 5 (17:09):
Love you, brother, Wait hard enough, you're the man, bro.

Speaker 3 (17:11):
Good luck, Thank you.

Speaker 2 (17:13):
So that's one guy that's been in Vegas since the nineties.
Let's bring in another guy that's been in Vegas since
the nineties, Teddy. I think it was nineteen ninety nine,
if I'm not mistaken. I started in ninety six. I
think you started. It was a full time in ninety nine,
not that you and I weren't doing this for years
before that. What's the official start date for you?

Speaker 1 (17:29):
August sixth, nineteen ninety eight?

Speaker 3 (17:32):
Was it day ninety eight? Okay, ninety eight? I short
at you a year in the previous century. Now.

Speaker 1 (17:37):
The next summer, the first year I came out here,
and I lived in an apartment. You know, I was
just trying to figure out what was going on. That
next summer I went back to Michigan, sold the house,
and brought Cara out here.

Speaker 3 (17:48):
Oh wow, I didn't realize that aspect though.

Speaker 1 (17:51):
Summer in ninety nine was when, you know, it was
a I'm like, this is a this is something I'm
going to do for a while.

Speaker 2 (17:56):
It was officially official in ninety nine, sure, but the
approbationary period was over.

Speaker 3 (18:03):
And ninety eight was also.

Speaker 1 (18:04):
You guys were just talking about power ratings the first
year I was out here. That was the first year
where I'm like, I gotta start making power ratings. Let's
figure out how to do it. And my advice for
anyone out there that wants to do power ratings. You know,
you guys Knew and Johnny were just talking about it, right,
this is how you start making power ratings. You just start.
You just start, and then you adjust and you go
through box scores and you read the recaps and you adjust.

(18:27):
But the key to good power ratings is not it's
it takes experience. You got to do it for a
little while. But there are no barriers to entry for
power ratings. All you do is you list to thirty
two teams in the NFL. All right, let's put down
some numbers, you know. And that's literally and that's my
first set of power ratings. I'm like, all right, well,
let's look at the markets. And I copied three other

(18:48):
sets and kind of merged them together into one. I'm like,
all right, this weren't going to start. Then I'll adjust
from here. And the first year they were pretty useless.
By year two, I'm like, all right, there might be
something here. By year three I felt real comfortable by
power rating. So it's not going to be an overnight process.
But this day, you know, obviously my fourth decade in Vegas.

(19:10):
You have a way of doing things. But when you're
first developing a way to do things like I'm sure
many of our viewers are doing now, just got to start.

Speaker 3 (19:20):
You know.

Speaker 1 (19:20):
You start and little iterations, little literations, change it, change it,
and after a period of time they'll be used to it.

Speaker 3 (19:28):
But yeah, they'll be used for it.

Speaker 1 (19:30):
And what you been able to accomplish, I mean, I
don't know how you started making power ratings, Steve.

Speaker 3 (19:33):
Yeah, I'll tell you.

Speaker 2 (19:34):
One thing I wasn't doing in the nineties was using
a spreadsheet. I doubt you were either. I mean I
was using Excel. Were you in the nineties. I don't
recall if I was. I mean, I definitely started pretty
early doing it. I mean Google wasn't around til ninety nine,
so I wasn't using Google sheets like I am now
in the nineties, that's for sure. But yeah, I guess
you know, I definitely was using spreadsheets even the College
of the mid nineties, I might have been, but I

(19:54):
wasn't relying on them like I do now, let's put
it that way, And they're very powerful free tool AI here.
Now this is something we didn't have even just a
couple of years ago. I'm sure you all could probably
start using chat GPT and get some good free advice.
But the biggest thing I tell people, Teddy is that
you know, a power rating is not as mystical as
it sounds, and the point spread isn't as mystical as
it seems. Either it's margin of it's projected margin of victory.

(20:18):
And if you take margin of victory all things equal,
it's going to be close to the points where the
problem is not all Apple's. To do Apple comparison, you've
got to make sure that strength of schedules are equal.
So basically a starting pot for me was was margin
of victory with strength of schedule factored in. And that's
kind of what the Sagregan rating was back in the nineties,
and that was about as good as any rating. And
if you do that now, it's a great starting point.

(20:40):
And yes, it's going to be very close to the
point spreading your power is. By the way, should be
very close.

Speaker 3 (20:44):
To the point spread.

Speaker 2 (20:45):
If you're finding like a seven point difference in every
single NFL game an NBA game, then you're probably doing
something wrong. Because the point spreads are accurate, they're efficient.
But then you got to where I think where the
real special sauce comes in, and the skill is evaluating
situational aspect to a game, injuries, situations, and how many
points that's worth one way or the other. So points spread,

(21:06):
for me, really it's pretty vanilla. It's a starting point.
It's probably pretty close to what the line should be,
but then it's the adjustments you make. And also i'll
throw this out to because I know you've talked a
lot about this in recent years. This home field advantage
is a lot different than when we start in the
nineteen nineties, and i'll your take on that. Do you
think the sports books still accurately reflected that?

Speaker 3 (21:25):
Have they finally caught on?

Speaker 2 (21:26):
Because I feel like about a decade ago, when NFL
home field was going from three to two to one,
you know, diminishing returns on the home field advantage in
a lot of sports that that wasn't That was an
edge I found, at least initially with some power ratings.

Speaker 1 (21:38):
Sure, I actually have a lot of fun betting road teams, right.
It helped me a great period of time where the
home field advantage was absolutely And I don't even know
if brief is the right word, because I've always trended
towards dogs, and I've always trended towards road teams and found,
you know, home field to be able to you know,
and that's not like I'm only playing dog and I'm
only playing road teams, but I've often find that's where

(21:59):
the value is. And again, when it comes to making lines,
I make lines for college football with my set of
power rings. I make lines for NFL with my set
of powerings, I make lines for NBA. I work three
sports with my powerings. I don't make lines every day
for MLB. I have an idea where I expect the
line to be just from my familiarity with the teams

(22:21):
and the pitchers and all of that. But that effort
for baseball, with starting pitchers and bullpen various. I much
more look for teams to ride an MLB than oh,
today's line is a mispriced for this squad, Whereas in
the NFL, you're definitely looking for you know, in the NFL,

(22:41):
when a team plays good for three weeks, guess what,
Now they're an overvided commodity. You know, it doesn't take
long for the NFL marketplace to move. Other sports and
marketplace moves much slower, and that offers real opportunity for
betters who are paying attention and making powering numbers for
every game.

Speaker 2 (22:58):
Yeah, and Teddy gets off to historically strong sparts in
the NFL a week one now over the last ten years,
thirty and eleven. That's right, thirty and eleven, seventy three
percent and eight and two eighty percent on week one,
five percent. Big ticket place you might want to pay
attention to how you get started in the NFL. Of course,
his NFL season wins report is locked and loaded right
now on his page at wager talk dot com. And

(23:18):
me are one oh three and fifty two sixty six
percent for the last twenty four years. You know, Teddy,
I talked about all the experience on the show today.
Some of our viewers haven't been alive for twenty four years.
You've gone one hundred and three and fifty two those
last twenty four years. In the futures reports, you might
want to check that out. His NFL Futures Report is
also available, including seventeen and four in those five percent
big ticket plays, I believe was it Saints under last

(23:39):
year was the five percent winner?

Speaker 3 (23:41):
Right? Yeah, you had a big one for this season.

Speaker 1 (23:44):
It was a big sweat after the first two weeks.
You remember one as came out last year and dominated
the first two weeks. Uh, And I was sitting there
going but.

Speaker 3 (23:55):
All twelve?

Speaker 1 (23:55):
It ends well, but speak when you talk about an
under like that, depth is a huge piece of a handicap,
and the Saints had real depth issues last year. I've
got an under again this year is my five percent
big ticket and I think depth issues could rise up
there as well.

Speaker 2 (24:09):
Well, it makes sense, right, the Dept's gonna hurt you
later in the season, so that's why you can't sweat
the fast start. But it also goes what I was
gonna say. It goes back to how random week one
and week two can be. I mean, I've said that
it's always been Week five of the NFL preseason. Well
I can't say that anymore because there's only three weeks.
So now Week one could be Week four the NFL preseason,
which in a regard, I think makes it more random.
So once again, you can't and you do find good

(24:31):
value sometimes fading teams after weeks one or two, or
vice versa jumping on board after some misleading starts. Let's
focus while I've got you on some NFL preseason I
think you want to We're gonna do a big game
breakdown for tomorrow's game. You still want to do that
game here in a little bit. The Bears Dolphins. Yeah,
let's talk Bears Dolphins. But I just saw some stuff
pop up on the said let's talk to night's games
first and then we'll close out with a little look
at tomorrow's game.

Speaker 1 (24:51):
Sure, sure, just some of the stuff that's popped up.
Partying like at nineteen nine. Always appreciated you. Roger Long,
Roger's been around two. Yeah, he's awesome. And there was
a question about the documentary that I was in. Let's
called Life on the Line. You can still find it.
It's on Apple, It's on all your streaming platforms. That

(25:12):
was for the Steelers Packers Super Bowl with that twenty
eleven or something of that nature. But yeah, there was
a documentary that my friend Isaac fieeder Maide and you
can still find it, and there are things about it
that I think are still good, so.

Speaker 3 (25:27):
It's held up over time.

Speaker 1 (25:30):
There were questions about the Giants and the build is
leen g men in this ball game? I do I
have not pulled the trigger, And of course we've seen
just wild line groops on this. You know, there was
at one point the Giants were laying three and Buffalo
was plus three. And at one point Buffalo was laying
three and the Giants were plus three, and now we're
seeing two and a half across the board thirty seven
and a half. The g Men do have a QB

(25:52):
rotation that we like. In August, there's urgency for the
backup job.

Speaker 2 (25:56):
But Dermott's been good. Yeah, that's the that's the quandary
in this game, right. I think that's the only reason
we'd see the bill. I think that, like you said that,
on paper, the quarterback situation probably would normally have money
coming in on a team like the Giants, the more
desperate team in the preseason, but McDermott's got the second

(26:17):
best point spread record behind a guy named Harball who
became a big dog the other night and still won outright.
Although he had been Owen seven ats before.

Speaker 3 (26:25):
That's Eddy as you know.

Speaker 1 (26:26):
Sure, which shows us how good he was prior incredible. Uh,
you know, harbors as money as money could get for August.
The mcdermot's another guy who cares about winning in August.
And from a from a whose third stringers are better standpoint,
my finger's gonna point to the Giants. You know, Giants

(26:46):
have an ultraspeedition on that roster. Giants have the better
undrafted rookie free agents. If you had a choice from
going to Buffalo or going to the New York, you
go to New York because the roster spots are available there.
So the lean here is the g men for me,
I did not pull the trigger. In fact, I haven't
met anything for the clients today in NFL preseason action.

Speaker 3 (27:04):
Despite that it's a deeper card.

Speaker 1 (27:06):
I am in action on one of the two games
tomorrow and four I'll said and done. It might be
an action on both the two games tomorrow.

Speaker 3 (27:11):
We'll see.

Speaker 2 (27:12):
And you know, Johnny mentioned this, and I knew you
were probably chumping at the bit offset when he said
three is the key number. Because I know something you do,
I'll say, you preach this is that one in two's
are maybe more important than threes in the preseason.

Speaker 1 (27:23):
Explain that, sure, So now that we have ties, you know,
back in the day before there were ties in the preseason,
the one and the two were extraordinarily you know, because
every coach is looking to avoid overtime. You know, you
don't need extra snapto and you guys getting hurt when
they're tired, So the whole second half, coach would be

(27:44):
going for two to Instead of trying to tie the game,
they'll be trying to untie the game. So the ones
in the twos were ones one and a half. Twos
two and a half were extraordinarily important. In the modern era,
where they've changed the rules so you can have ties
in preseason, they're not quite as important as they were. Nonetheless,

(28:04):
there is a huge difference between a plus one and
a plus two and a half in August, much bigger
than the difference between a plus one and a plus
two and a half in September. In addition, in August
in the NFL, I only want to take the points.
I don't want money line at plus one, at plus
one and a half, at plus two, at plus two

(28:25):
and a half, I don't want the dog on the
money line. I want those points. Those points often come
into play in the regular season at plus two. You know,
the money line is a very viable option, you know,
plus two and a half, same story for all or
part of your wager. But in the preseason I'm always
taking the points, not looking for the plus price return.

(28:48):
So many of these games get decided by a field
goal or less. There's just not that much difference between
this third string offense and that third string defense. And
that's what we see on the field in the second
half of these games, and we'll see a bunch of
that today, I'm sure.

Speaker 2 (29:00):
Let me ask you about this, Teddy. I was actually
gonna ask Johnny about this. We've covered so many other things.
This reminds me a lot of Game three in the
NBA playoffs, home teams down oh two. We're seeing situations
where the first half line is the same, sometimes higher
than the full game line, and it's all it's interesting.
We have a seven point favorite with Denver tonight first
half line is four and a half juice, it's minus six.

(29:20):
It's almost the same even in that one. But you
look at the other ones, like Minnesota four, it's at four.
You know, Jacksonville four to three and a half, Tennessee
I think is two and a half three. You're talking
about a lot of games, almost all the games in
which you have a sizeable favorite. It's the same as
the first half line. Now, obviously that's because this information
is based usually on quarterback rotation, starters playing longer, which

(29:42):
means all of these second halfs are pick thems, right,
So we have more opportunities different ways to play these
games than we did maybe when we started in the
nineties with first half bets. Obviously in game bets did
not exist back then on preseason games. Your thoughts on
all this, I mean, any advantage is to be found.

Speaker 1 (29:57):
Of course, And let's talk about some of these lines.
I mean, let's talk about some games in particular, talk
about Houston Minnesota, because all the reports out of both
of these camps is defensive dominating the offense.

Speaker 3 (30:08):
Defensive dominating the offense.

Speaker 1 (30:10):
I mean in Minnesota that's you know, oh my god,
this is the Super Bowl winning defense. And the reports
out of a Minnesota's campus is defense, defense unbelievable. We
love the defense, Oh my god, the defense is fantastic.
And it's a similar story with DeMeco Ryans and the
Texans where the defense has been the better of the
two in training camp. Yeah, look at the total open

(30:32):
thirty six with thirty seven thirty Now I've seen thirty
eight and a halfs out there for two teams that
have been where the defenses have played better than their
offenses in throughout training camp. So why is that urgency?

Speaker 3 (30:49):
Is why?

Speaker 1 (30:51):
Well, first of all, we've seen a heavy move to
the over so far here in week one of the
preseasons for we have now we've had seven preseason game.

Speaker 3 (30:59):
Six them have gone over the total, and many of
them by margin.

Speaker 1 (31:02):
You know, we're not talking about teams that have snuck
over by a half point or by a point. We're
seeing a little bit better red zone execution. We've also
seen a bunch of special teams touchdowns already. We had
a punt return touchdown and a kick return sends it
down to the twenty yard line. And the turnovers for
the Lions Chargers game are all near the goal line,
so it's set up short fields. I mean, things have
broken right for overs so far, but we've certainly seen

(31:25):
an early trend towards the overs, and with Houston and
Minnesota two teams that have struggled offensively in camp. There's
urgency for those offenses to show something here. Not with
my money on the over in that part game, I'll
put it that way, but the markets have clearly moved
in that direction. Two teams that they expect to be
throwing the football a fair bit up and down the
field when it comes to Denver San Francisco, And again,

(31:48):
Denver was a great bet, you know, at minus seven,
not so much but for the forty and end. By
the way, for the text, and it's worth noting with
the injury to CJ. Gardner Johnson that has affected Houston's
game plan. And now the injury is not quite as
serious as initially thought. It doesn't look like it's gonna
be out for the year. But that was their big
price free agent pickup. When a guy like that gets

(32:11):
hurt in a practice in training camp, it can affect
the mentality of a whole team in Houston is built
to win defensively, so you wonder if the Texans maybe
take a little tap off the gas pedal in this ballgame.
The market seem to think they're going to for Denver
San Frian Look every report out of Denver is don't

(32:32):
underestimate this team. This team's looking dominant. Bo Nicks is
the phenomenal, The offense is clicking, the defense is super
Bowl caliber. I mean the joint practice with San Francisco,
the joint practice was pretty one sided in favor of
Denver and the forty nine ers. When I talk about
preseason rules, per se, one of the rules for preseason

(32:54):
is the teams that are banged up are bet against.
And San Frans banged up all over the place. Here
reports a mile long. There's gonna be a ton of
guys that aren't playing. So you have one team that's
looking dominant in both sides of the football, and the
other team is a veteran squad that's banged up already.
You can understand why the money has moved forward Denver.
But if you like the Broncos, it's too late, you know,

(33:15):
and you're not gonna make money in the NFL betting
a team that was plus one at the open when
they're minus seven now, even if the information shows it,
it's just, you know, maybe the Broncos kill him, But
I would not consider that a positive expectation wager at
the current number. You know, do something maybe bit san
Fran team total under.

Speaker 3 (33:34):
Let me ask you this, Teddy on that game.

Speaker 2 (33:36):
I know you probably aren't playing it, but if you
had to play that game, would you rather lay Denver
minus seven full game or Denver mint is six first
half or minus four and a half minus one thirty
first half?

Speaker 3 (33:47):
It's basically the same. See where I'm going with that.

Speaker 2 (33:50):
It's very interesting to meet these options you have now
in the betting markets, because obviously Denver's first half should
have a huge edge against San Fran. But then if
they're banged up, would you rather just you know, lay
an extra point have the full game working for you
there in the second half.

Speaker 1 (34:01):
No, I've been reading good reports out of every part
of Denver. I'd rather have the longer game to cover
their second string. Their third string defense can make some noise.
I don't mind Jared's did him? Or Sam Ellinger?

Speaker 3 (34:14):
You know? Yeah, that's true. You got the quarterback edge
probably still too. I'll stay full game.

Speaker 1 (34:19):
But once it gets to seven, now you got to
win by eight. You know, if you win by a touchdown,
you don't make any money. It's too high. But if
I had to play it, it would only be this it'd
only be the Denver side, it'd only be the minus seven.

Speaker 3 (34:35):
I don't.

Speaker 1 (34:37):
Yeah, so I had a wrong side. I hate having
wrong side in the preseason because you look stupid and
your clients go, what the hell we betting this stuff for?
I had a wrong side gets so I thought there
was value with Washington uh uh, and they give up
a kick return touchdown to open the game. And it
never got me better than that. It was a complete disaster,

(34:57):
complete wrong side loser. But part of the process is
part of my thought process is New England should be
laying this what's New England?

Speaker 6 (35:07):
There's not.

Speaker 1 (35:08):
I wasn't sensing that urgency from the past, and I
was wrong in that assessment, dead wrong, you know, first
loser of the preseason, and it really, you know, didn't
make me very happy. I'm sure it didn't make the
clients very happy. Uh, because you know, we don't like
wrong again in August. There's a reason you're you're not
betting anything based on your opinion. Everything's information, everything, and

(35:29):
I couldn't find information. I said in New England's all
that interest any more interested? And of course they were.
The markets were right, and I was wrong in this instance.
With den with the San Francisco Uh so, yeah, with
Denver San Fran it's that, you know, Denver's interested, San
Fran isn't, and the marks are showing it. But once

(35:53):
you start getting the land of winning by more than
a touchdown, it can and does happen. But it has
priced me out of the game.

Speaker 2 (35:58):
Yeah, and that's where it really comes down to, is
you know how much value is left when I moved
six seven, eight points. We had a question earlier in
the chat about do you rely on power ratings at
all in the preseason?

Speaker 3 (36:08):
No, yeah, I think would.

Speaker 1 (36:10):
What I'm trying to do in August is take my
opinion out of the equation about the teams completely. Literally,
all I want to bet on is this coach is
quote this defense, cordinators, quote this offense cordinators, quote this
coaching track record, This team's all banged up and isn't
going to be playing anyone or has to. You know,
I like the Texans today where you're worried about that

(36:32):
or San Francisco. You know, and when teams are injured,
that's far bigger than any opinion you want to have
about the teams. But you know, in the regular season,
New England's not laying a touchdown to Washington, all right.
It's not your opinions about how good the teams are.
It's not how good your opinions about the quarterbacks are.
It's the information. The only to find the info is

(36:52):
to dig.

Speaker 3 (36:53):
So you read.

Speaker 1 (36:54):
You read a lot beat writers in August, probably more
than any other time of the year. You know. I
try to read multiple beat writers for every team every day,
and you know that's how I spend my days this
time of the year, clicking around what infoo we find?
Is it worth betting now? So it's not about opinions
at all. It's only information.

Speaker 2 (37:16):
So on the way out, let's give somebody a good
give everybody something for tomorrow on Sunday. We have a
ton of games I think like eight today, but we
do have two tomorrow on Sunday in the NFL, and
the early game on Sunday at one o'clock Eastern is
Dolphins and Bears. Bears have a new head coach, right,
and we always talk about motivation in the preseasons. I'm
curious your thoughts on this game.

Speaker 1 (37:34):
Yeah, let's talk about Miami and Chicago early start NFL
preseason action on Sunday, and of course right now looking
at the Odds Logic live screen, I'm seeing the Bears
minus three total of this game sitting thirty four and
a half thirty five. Now for Miami, we've seen two

(37:54):
look really good in camp, but it doesn't look like
you're gonna play Zach Wilson and Quinn youwers Quin yours
a six round are out of Texas, should get ample
of playing time. Wilson and you know is pretty much
locked into the backup job. Viewers are going to try
for it. Put again a six round rookie not likely
to get there. The quotes was the youers is managing

(38:16):
the playbook, Well, there's a nine day install process that
he's just gone through often quitter Darren Bevel quote every
day talking about you know, yours, who's gonna be on
the field when this point spreads it decided quote every
day comes out and gets a little bit better. He's
putting a lot of good stuff on tape, doesn't make
a lot of mistakes. When he makes a mistake, we're
able to get it corrected. He's willing to work on

(38:38):
the little details we're asking him to and we're happy
with where he's at youers quote, I'm still learning, trying
to play my game at the end of the day
and have fun doing it. I feel like I'm playing
faster every day and have a good grasp of what's
been installed so far.

Speaker 3 (38:53):
The quotes to me.

Speaker 1 (38:55):
Reading between the lines is no, he's not ready.

Speaker 6 (39:00):
You know.

Speaker 1 (39:00):
Another coaches are saying, yes, I'm ready. He's got a
little bit better every day.

Speaker 3 (39:04):
He's seeing things. Clearly.

Speaker 1 (39:06):
I don't think when you was ready, And those quotes
are both telling me, Yeah, the installs getting there.

Speaker 3 (39:12):
You know.

Speaker 1 (39:12):
It's not an easy offense that they're running down in Miami,
and I would expect some mistakes from this young QB.
These two teams just had a joint practice session. It
wasn't pretty.

Speaker 3 (39:23):
For Miami.

Speaker 1 (39:23):
The Bears physically manhandled them both squad both sides of
the football, in particular, the Bear Dennis Allen's defense ate
up Miami's offense. And for Chicago, they too have a
bunch of installs that they've been working on for a
new offense under Ben Johnson. That being said, there were
issues last week at this time with that offense. I

(39:44):
didn't get any sense that that's going on this week.
At this time. And when you talk about a QB
trio that you might want you money, I don't know
how much Kalabills we're going to see. Not much, in
fact none. Tyson Bagent is going to be a Badget's
going to be the start. And then we got case
Keenum and Austin Reed. Keenum's been a starter in the league.

(40:05):
Reed's been in this system and was good in the
preseason last August. And the reports from Chicago as Bagent
looking really good so far. So even though it's a
new system and a new offense in Chicago, I think
they're a little bit ahead of the curve right now
and they're certainly urgency. We can talk about playing at
home with a new coach in his first again, he's

(40:27):
not gonna freak out if they lose, but it feels
like the Bears are going to play well in that
early start game tomorrow. If I'm playing, I'm laying with Chicago.
And by the way, guys, before I let you go,
we appreciate those likes very very much. Boom hit that
like button, follow wager Talk dot com on Instagram, on

(40:50):
x on YouTube. We have two hundred and ten thousand
followers on our YouTube channel now. It's insane obviously, and
of course leave a comment tell us what you think below.
That's what I think for Chicago and Miami early starting
action on Sunday.

Speaker 2 (41:06):
Teddy covers one of the best in the business. He's
been doing it a while, just like myself, Johnny the Greek.
Our next guess, Ross Benjamin. By the way, Teddy, there's
a rumor that you and Ross are gonna both be
recording some videos at the Westgate over the next week.

Speaker 1 (41:19):
Yeah, Ross is coming to town and he was kind
enough to invite me to join him, and we'll be
doing a big college football preview next week. I prepped
on He asked me to prep some stuff and I
actually spent a couple of hours prepping it the other
day and I'm gonna work on it this weekend as well.
So we should have some good insights for you and
look for that content, free content, more quality, free content

(41:41):
from the wager doc dot com team.

Speaker 2 (41:44):
And we didn't get to any baseball we had so
much football. But do you want to get Teddy's baseball
best bets for Saturday, for this Sunday for the weekend.
Check him out right now at wager talk dot com.
Teddy covers free plays daily there as well at wager
talk dot com. All right, last, but definitely not least,
the boss Man, Ross the Boss another caper that's been
around since the nineties. You know, Ross, I was thinking

(42:05):
about this, this might be a historical show today on
wager Talk.

Speaker 3 (42:08):
Yeah, all four of.

Speaker 2 (42:09):
Us, Steve Merril, Johnny the Great, Teddy Covers, Ross, Benjamin
have all been doing this since the least professionally full
time since the nineties, even before that for some of us,
but some expertise to say the least anything catch your
ear so far? Would you've been waiting on the sidelines
to jump on?

Speaker 3 (42:25):
Yeah?

Speaker 6 (42:26):
I love all the stuff you're talking about with NFL preseason.
You know, you hear a lot of people out there
saying you can't make any money on the NFL preseason.
That's ridiculous, because you can. You just have to have
a method to your madness. And Teddy went over a
lot of information there that he does. I go about
it a different way, but you know, there is I

(42:49):
hate to use the phrase there's more than one way
to skin a cap because that offend some people. But
you get what I'm trying to say, Steve, we all
have our own style. You have yours, and at the
end of the day, that's why we're all on wageertalk
dot com because all of our styles are effective.

Speaker 2 (43:05):
Over to loonow, Yeah, you know it really hates that saying.
As cats, that's what I found out over the years.

Speaker 3 (43:10):
I have two of them.

Speaker 6 (43:11):
My wife would probably kill me if she heard me
say that.

Speaker 2 (43:14):
One of those ones that have no fur, that look
like they're pink like on the Austin Powers Doctor Evilhead.
One of those like skinless. They're not skinless, they're hairless.
I guess they aren't skinless, but they're hairless. We are
going to get to some baseball in a moment. Ross,
He's actually got to pick on the Brewers and Mets,
one of his New York teams. We're gonna get to
that in a moment. But if you have any baseball questions,
any games you want to cover, and the live chat,

(43:34):
we got a few minutes left from the show, drop
them in the chat. We'll get to them as well.
But let's stick with the NFL real quick. Ross, I
want to get your your thoughts on backing sizeable dogs
in the NFL. Preseason. You know, we talked about that
Denver game. It's up to seven now from like basically
as minus one plus seven. We saw that with the
Ravens the other night, right minus one to plus six.
They went out, Right, At what point you're obviously bucking

(43:56):
the information because it's it's never there's always a reason
I team sizeable dog in the preseason. But are there
a little under the radar things you look forward sometimes
maybe you start to back those dogs or how do
you approach it?

Speaker 6 (44:08):
Yeah, I mean I'm a thorough believer and I have
been over the years that no team really deserves to
be a favorite of more than a touchdown in the preseason,
and the numbers will back that. Steve you know, I
know we can go over reports like Teddy just did,
and all of that is viable stuff. I mean, there's

(44:28):
a reason why he's as good as he is. It's
because that stuff is worked for him over the years.
But when you look at the fact that just some
blind numbers, I mean home underdogs of six and a
half or greater during the preseason fifteen and five against
the spread since two thousand and five, not only fifteen

(44:51):
and five against the spread, but those home underdogs of
six and a half are greater have won eight of
those twenty games straight up, with another one ending in
a tie. I mean, but if you compare that to
the regular season, I mean, over that same course of
time during the regular season and playoffs, I should mention

(45:12):
home underdogs of six and a half or greater are
exactly fifty percent against the spread and twenty point six
percent straight up winners. So you could see there's a
drastic difference there between handicapping the preseason when when we
get sizeable home underdogs such as what we're discussing, and

(45:34):
during the regular season. So I mean, I have a
little more. But if you want to comment on that, Steve,
I'll take a deep breath here.

Speaker 3 (45:42):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (45:42):
Essentially, what you said too is that so many and
I see it all the time too. So many people
are like, you're degenerati if you're betting the NFL preseas
you can't make money bet in the NFL preseason. First
of all, whenever someone tells me I can't do something,
it's just my nature to like want to do it.
And second of all, when it involves something involving money,
they're usually wrong. And if you think about what everyone
thinks you can beat. It's the NFL regular season, which
is probably the sharpest betty market of all and the

(46:05):
toughest to beat of any sport, any betty market. So
it's kind of backwards and you can play it. Look,
everything in life has odds. I'm going to walk down
the street later. Hopefully there's not thunderstorm, but there's odds
still that might get struck by lightning. Right, it's risk reward,
I'll take the chance. So yeah, you can put odds
on anything, So it'd always cut cracks me up. But
you say you can't bet the preseason because theoretically, if
it's so random, every game should be a pick them,

(46:27):
which means taking plus six or plus seven, and every
time you can do it makes money. And that's kind
of what you're saying's worked over the last several decades.
So those of you out there that think you can't
bet the preseasons, just bet the big dogs in that
backs your theory, and Ross has the numbers saying that works.
And in Teddy's defenses, you know, he said he wouldn't
have touched that game, right, And the only way to
play it's the information. But I do think the market's
also now granted the opening line in the preseason, like

(46:50):
Johnny said, is different than the regular season because they're
putting it out on the blind and the news comes
in on who's playing and who's not, and the sports
be like, well, we never would have put that number out,
So it's not like it's really moving seven points from
what the number was. But in general, on the regular season,
two sports books aren't off by that much, and now
more than ever, you can make a case that the
opening number is sharper than it's ever been. So I
think there is a viable betting strategy going forward in

(47:13):
any sport, any time of year to take adjusted line
value of five to six seven points when you can
get it. And we see that ross in the NBA
with the injuries, team will move seven points and they
went out right still right if you just blindly bet
the other way on those injuries.

Speaker 7 (47:26):
Anything else you want to add on football, well, yeah,
I mean the first thing, the first thing that I
would look at when I see a line move, as
you just alluded to, is somebody's out, somebody's not playing,
somebody decided they're going to use their starters, and the.

Speaker 6 (47:39):
Other team isn't you know what I mean? But at
the same time, I mean, if we know that, the
books know that, and more so than ever in the
NFL preseason. And this is what you were saying in
a nutshell, Steve is is line movements in the NFL
preseason are mostly not money, generally a result of information

(48:02):
as opposed to the regular season. You know, again, a
little one more thing is just betting underdogs of seven
or greater in the NFL preseason eighty one and fifty
one against the spread, sixty one point three percent on
the blind. That's what out any other condition involved in

(48:23):
there since since two thousand and five, sous, if you
look at the difference in the regular season once again, uh,
dogs of seven or greater since over the same time period,
they're only fifty two point eight percent against the spread
in favor of the dogs seven or greater. So there's

(48:44):
a drastic difference when you're handicapping NFL preseason first regular season,
not only through the numbers, but various other topics too.

Speaker 5 (48:52):
Steve, I don't know about you, but I like looking at.

Speaker 6 (48:54):
Head coaching trends during the preseason. I think those hold water.
You mentioned how Bah he slowed down a little bit,
but again he came through as a six point dog.
The other night you mentioned McDermott. You look at the
opposite end of the spectrum, dan Quinn's preseason record. It's

(49:15):
a head coach in Atlanta and Washington has been horrible.
So there's a lot more importance for some head coaches
than there are others, and you can't ignore that factor
when you're breaking down games.

Speaker 2 (49:29):
Absolutely correct, and I think quarterback rotations are important, just
like starting pitchers are important in baseball. But I think
it's some must overrated now in the lines in both sports.
And you can make an argument of it's very similar
because in baseball you're getting maybe five or six innings
out of that handicap because the starters are pulled, and
then it's randomness with a bullpen. As I pointed out earlier,
most of these first half lines with the big favorites

(49:50):
are the same as the full game because it's all
based on that known quantity of the first second quarter rotations,
and they're all saying the second half as a pick them.
So there again your only handicap in half the game
with this information, whereas the coach's motivation is constant throughout
the game second half when all backups are out there,
which is very important, especially for a home team, and
Bill's and Buffalo have been the two best. They both

(50:11):
at their home this week. We'll see how this Buffalo
game turns out today. But that's where the motivation comes in.
Is when it's a tight game in the third or
fourth quarter, does one team actually kind of want to
win more than the other. So I think once again,
the sample sets are given is much more important than
one day of maybe quarterback information that we're trying to
figure out how that's going to play out. A couple
of minutes left, Ross got a lot of baseball want
to touch. I know you're can look at that Brewers

(50:32):
Mets games, but a lot of people in the chats
are asking about some I'll throw them out to you
see if they have any thoughts of these. In particular,
Crypto's asking about Baltimore in the Athletics. Nobody's Oakland Athletics
against my Baltimorial has just played my Washington Nationals. Also
Red's Pirates, thoughts on Red Sox if any of those
jump out to you.

Speaker 3 (50:52):
In protect I.

Speaker 6 (50:53):
Mean the A's game jumps out at me because you
got young going for Baltimore and he's been prone to
giving up the long ball. And if you look at
the A's, they're one of the best power hitting teams
in baseball. I don't think a lot of people realize
that they're even better on the road, where they average
one point five home runs per game on the road,

(51:14):
ninety one home runs and sixty one on the road.
So Mike Lean there would go toward the A's you
get them between minus one hundred and minus one oh five.
The other two games you mentioned were the Red Socks
and the since Cincinnati.

Speaker 2 (51:33):
Thoughts of the Red Sox Titan CT one of our
loyal viewers. And then also v Smoke he's asking reds Pirates.
And I'll give a shout out to one of my coaches,
my partners in crime. Basketball football coach Daniel Owen's big
Nationals fan left Williamsburg at seven am Thursday morning to
go up to that New Eastern game to watch the
Nets get shut out six nothing by the A's. It's
funny talk about the power numbers for Oakland because they're

(51:56):
in a hitter friendly park in Sacramentos. That is very
interesting to me, they have better power road numbers. I
will say this though, when you're a homeless transient team
like that, you have no home field advantage and you
probably do play better on the road.

Speaker 3 (52:08):
Right. Hobos love to travel the OK.

Speaker 6 (52:11):
I know, I don't know if I'm a hobo, but
I like to travel.

Speaker 1 (52:17):
Uh.

Speaker 3 (52:17):
I never called you a hope. I look at that
putting words in my mouth. My goodness, not everything, not.

Speaker 6 (52:23):
Anything, Benjamin, No, man, you're you're the best bro.

Speaker 3 (52:27):
You back me. But I like to travel. I might
use that a lot at any event.

Speaker 6 (52:34):
Yeah, it's sort of shocking because it's a Triple A
ballpark they play in in Santramento. Yeah, and the visiting
teams have definitely had a lot more success in power
numbers against them in that ballpark.

Speaker 3 (52:46):
Uh.

Speaker 6 (52:46):
Terms of the Reds in Pirates game, I really don't
have a strong opinion Steve because number one Ashcraft is
a I believe he's a former Red if I'm not mistaken.
If not, he's a Leaf pitchers. So it's not like
they're going to ask him to go more than two
or three innings there. And it's hard for me to

(53:07):
fade Pittsburgh get home, right, now you know they won
the first two games of this series. Nick Martinez on
the mound for Cincinnati's uninspiring numbers to me, so that's
a stay away game for me, and the Red Sox
helped me out. Steve looking, here we go, Giolito against King.
I mean King has been out for the majority of

(53:27):
the year, hasn't he, Michael King? If I'm not mistaken.
And when I see a pitcher going in a spot
like that, and Giolito has been a radic this year,
you know that's another game. There's better games on the
board to me than choosing one of those two latter
two that I would out of the three, I would

(53:50):
have the strongest lean toward the A's today.

Speaker 2 (53:55):
And I know you're gonna give us a free player
in this Brewers Mets game in about one minute, but
one last one. Andrew next, another loyal viewer here is
asking about Tiger's angels. If nothing jumps out to say so,
but I didn't know if you saw anything in that game.

Speaker 6 (54:06):
Yeah, Tiger's ing, you know, Charlie Morton all of a sudden,
he's starting to pitch like a he was when he
was younger. But I don't trust him Kokuchi. I don't
trust him either, especially on the road. The Angels bullpen
has pitched a lot better. They definitely have when when
you're looking at recent bullpen performance, the Angels have been

(54:29):
much better over the last week than Detroit has been. Detroit,
you know, came off that that that little span where
they couldn't win. Now they seem like they're getting back
to their normal self. Barely squeaked by six to five
with Scooba on the mount and uh, you know, it's
almost like you're looking at the disparitian records here in

(54:50):
Detroit to only minus one thirty. I would have a
small lean toward the Angels, just because this looks too
good to be true. Uh you know what, the Tigers
at home facing an Angels team that's right around a
five hundred club.

Speaker 2 (55:06):
Yeah, and the sharp money agrees with you Ross, so
they opened his eyes minus one fifty the Tigers down
to that minus one thirty range now, So it does
look like some early sharp money was on the Angels
in that game.

Speaker 3 (55:15):
That's at six' ten eastern.

Speaker 2 (55:17):
Tonight and before we let you go give it, Something Mets,
Brewers i'm checking it. Now i'm seeing. Undecided myers has
been switched From. Milwaukee this is only a single game right,
now a double. Header this is kind of moves you
see sometimes with a double header a lot of times in.
Baseball SO i don't know if you still like this
game or. Not if these are the handicapped pictures you.
Had what are you looking at in this?

Speaker 6 (55:37):
One, YEAH i mean you're Seeing Tobias myers got.

Speaker 2 (55:40):
Scratched, No i'm Seeing myers has been the pitching change
For milwaukee that was overnight right seeing The mets is.
Undecided i'm not sure if you're seeing something different in This, No.

Speaker 3 (55:48):
I'm not seeing.

Speaker 6 (55:49):
IT i misunderstood what you, Said. Steve my, Apology, no, no,
no no.

Speaker 2 (55:54):
WORRIES i was kind of scrambling here, too because this
is the. Game that's the screen's lighting up right. Now
we're actually seeing some money coming on the open by the,
way open nine.

Speaker 3 (56:02):
Under it's now nine.

Speaker 2 (56:03):
Over i'm looking at The odds Logic live odd, screen
BUT i know you're looking at the side, Here SO i.

Speaker 3 (56:07):
Didn't know if something was, changing maybe with the.

Speaker 6 (56:09):
Pitchers, YEAH i mean the pitching is the starting pitching.
Is you don't know who's going with for The mets
And Tobias myers has been a relief pitcher for the
most part this. Season he has made three, starts but
he's only gone four innings in those three. Starts so
this is a. Game both pitching staffs are going to
patch together to get through this. Game and with that being,

(56:32):
said both bullpens have been very. Good So i'm not
really sure why the money is coming in on the.
OVER i will say, this sometimes you just need to
keep it. Simple and you, know this seems like a lazy,
handicap which you GET i get accused of on, occasion
but you, know sometimes the public. Wins there's eighty percent

(56:54):
of the money On milwaukee. Here and, look these are
two teams THAT i had in opposite directions right. Now
The mets have lost five in a. Row they've lost
nine in their last. Ten they're home and away Splits
Ore jekyl And hide thirty eight and twenty one at,
home twenty five and thirty two on the. Road and
also they're one and nine in their last. Ten is
an away dog of plus one hundred or. Greater The

(57:17):
mets offense over their last six. Games they're hitting just
two to eleven as a team less than three hundred
for a team on base. Percentage this is A brewers
team thirty two and nine or last forty one and
also seven and oh their last seven and ten and
one their last. Eleven talk about a team playing really
good baseball right, now and since the bullpens are going

(57:39):
to play a major role in deciding to winner, today
The milwaukee's bullpen has been good for quite a while right,
now and over their last six games of one ninety three,
ERA i think the bullpens are pretty much even if
you look at The mets bullpen performance lines over their
last six. Games BUT i just think the d tangibles
here favor To brewers too. Much And i'm seeing The

(58:02):
brewers at minus one twenty nine at bet online the
LAST i. Look let me check that real. Quickly we
actually you're down to one eighteen at bet. Online So
i'm gonna have a small lean here as a free
play and The brewers minus one. Eighteen don't go overboard
on this, one, folks BECAUSE i don't like to bet
big money on games where there's not a definitive starting

(58:26):
pitcher on either.

Speaker 2 (58:27):
SIDE i can't believe you said a lazy handicap. It
there's one Thing ross The Boss benjamin does not do
is lazy. Handicaps he does free via is the least
laziest man on Wager TALK. Tv he does free play
videos every, day as almost every you watching probably know
because he had an incredible and still has an INCREDIBLE
mlb free pick video run going this. Summer but when

(58:47):
that jumps out to, me those your best bets twenty
two and, Four actually that's money twenty third ON mlb
money line wagers twenty two and four last month. Plus
and it's not just it's not just. Ball one hundred
and twenty five and eighty three in college football the
last two, years overall all sports the past three, months
almost ninety two and fifty five since Mid, may ninety

(59:09):
two and fifty five all, sports seventy six and forty
Six baseball over the last three months since Early. May
ross a great time of year to be on The All,
Sports All access and they got some special offers in your.
Page college football still just five ninety nine for the full.
Season he's number one in baseball this. Year he's number
one in units earned college football the last two seasons.
Combined tell people how they get this wager talk dot.

(59:31):
Com Ross, Benjamin, yeah wagertalk dot.

Speaker 6 (59:33):
Com you can go right to my personal link wt
dot buzz SLASH. Rb thank you for all those, Promos,
steve by the, way appreciate. That and number one in
college football and both units earned and win percentage last
year and Like steve touched upon over the last two
college football, seasons number one in combined units earned over

(59:54):
the last two seasons in college football five to ninety
nine for my entire college football season right through The
National championship. Game you can get that right now at my.
Site to ninety nine for a thirty day. Pass in all.
Sports Major League, baseball, folks has just been on. Fire
for myself is seventy three units earned for a season so,

(01:00:17):
far and that doesn't include Since may, thirteenth Where i've
won well over eighty. Units so a lot of good
stuff to take advantage of right. NOW nfl college football
combined eight hundred and forty nine, dollars which will take
you through The Super Bowl National Championship. Game and it's
all about making, money, folks you, know it's about beating

(01:00:39):
the number and over the long haul is the best
way to do. That and the best way to invest
in that case is how about a three hundred and
sixty five day all access pass for nineteen ninety. Nine,
again it seems like a steep, price but when you
hear the numbers That steve just rattled out for, myself
you can see you can make a lot of money

(01:01:00):
over to long haul and save yourself a lot of money.

Speaker 2 (01:01:02):
Investment, yeah single play is twenty five dollars per. Day
multiple plays fifty dollars for maybe one. Day you get
that one year all access even at nineteen ninety, nine
you're talking about just a few dollars a play for every,
sport every day for three hundred and sixty five days and.

Speaker 3 (01:01:16):
Nights and that's how you take.

Speaker 2 (01:01:17):
A true investment approach with any capper at wager talk
Dot comedy might want to consider multiple cappers with those
one of your. Packages and by the, way contact Wager
Talks award winning customer support if you'd like multiple. Cappers
tell them you What Ross benjamin And Steve. Merrill they'll
put a combo offer together for. You i'll work With. Ross,
Yeah i'll work.

Speaker 3 (01:01:37):
At any time for. People it will be an.

Speaker 6 (01:01:39):
Honor, yeah IF i can just mention one more.

Speaker 3 (01:01:42):
Thing, yeah, man, again you mentioned it.

Speaker 6 (01:01:43):
Earlier me And teddy will be doing a college football
betting preview show live from The Westgates Sports book On.
Wednesday that will air live at eleven Am eastern time
Or pacific, time which is two Pm eastern AND i
get screwed up with the time zone AND i look
forward to doing that With teddy and folks tune.

Speaker 3 (01:02:05):
IN i, mean you hear my.

Speaker 6 (01:02:06):
College football record and got a huge futures played. IT
i discussed With steve and if you didn't hear, that
you'll hear it again On.

Speaker 3 (01:02:15):
WEDNESDAY i did realize you had a time set for.

Speaker 2 (01:02:18):
THAT i was going to promo that then. Again, okay
so that's This. Wednesday that would Be august thirteenth at
eleven Am vegas time at The, Westgates so people can
come out and hang out at the Super, book maybe
say hi To ross And teddy before after as.

Speaker 3 (01:02:31):
Well.

Speaker 6 (01:02:31):
Correct that is, correct and that also be on archive as.
Well so if you can't make it and you're, working it's.
Understandable you can get it on archive at Wager TALK.
Tv you can get all my videos actually at my personal.
Link And steve loves, this which is Buzz Slash ROSS Tv.

Speaker 3 (01:02:53):
ROSS tv.

Speaker 2 (01:02:57):
The other week two weeks, ago AND i guessed. US i,
SAID i want, One Johnny goes contact. ME i JUST
i forgot to do. IT i want to.

Speaker 3 (01:03:03):
LINK i want to all so, Long i've been THINKING
i want a nickname in. Quotes that's WHAT i. Want
look at, men DO.

Speaker 2 (01:03:10):
I dare ask the commenters to give me a nickname
suggestion during the football videos?

Speaker 3 (01:03:14):
Here or is? That is that going to be playing with? Fire?
Yeah that might be pretty. Fun, actually, yeah, Nickname. Steve
let's have a contest this.

Speaker 6 (01:03:21):
Fing you, know they started calling He ross the boss
all the time in the, time you know WHAT i.

Speaker 2 (01:03:27):
Mean but that's WHAT i love is he didn't give
himself that. Nickname it was given to him by the loyal.
Viewers when somebody nicknames you the, boss not, yourself that's a.

Speaker 6 (01:03:35):
Sign, well you know, What Bruce springsteen has nothing on, me,
Folk so that's.

Speaker 2 (01:03:41):
TRY i forgot there was another. BOSS i like you
better Than Bruce. Springsteen you're a Great he thinks he
does songs About, American but you're a Great, american even
though you're close to That canadian border, said.

Speaker 3 (01:03:50):
YEAH i love the.

Speaker 6 (01:03:51):
Quote that you on my, birthday you wish me a happy,
birthday and you Said america's became a great, place and
ate one.

Speaker 3 (01:03:58):
FIFTY i said it was a great day In american.

Speaker 2 (01:04:00):
History AND i won't say how many years ago unless
you would have publicly, revealed BUT i, said this was
a great day In american history so many years. Ago
and it Was ross's birthday a couple of weeks. Ago
he is a year wiser and you can find him
every day free, videos no, joke basically every single, day
And i'm doing them almost every day now with baseball
and then of course. Football you AND i will be
in full throttle here on Wager TALK. Tv That's ross The, Boss.
Benjamin we Had Teddy, Covers johnny The, greek and of

(01:04:23):
COURSE i Am Steve. Merril hope you enjoyed this episode
over an hour. Long we maybe broke a record, here
BUT i thought it was a pretty good Info and
if you want, More Tokyo brandon is on LIVE i
think right now with his baseball show With saturdays at,
noon which is who knows what time over In, tokyo
it's in the wee, hours and he tries to stay
awake and. Sober that's a great watch as. Well you
can go over every baseball game on the board with

(01:04:44):
a FORMER mlb Scout Tokyo brandon and thank you all
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(01:05:06):
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(01:05:26):
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