Last Call LIVE: NFL Week 13 Predictions, Picks & Best Bets | Sunday Morning Line Moves | November 30
November 30, 2025 • 39 mins
Looking for NFL picks and predictions for Week 13 action? We have you covered! We've waited since the Super Bowl to have another NFL betting slate and today we have a loaded one! We discuss what the market moves have been, are ongoing and where can we take advantage to win our NFL bets!
Join Ariel Epstein, Gianni the Greek, John Murray and David Delano as they give their best picks and critical steam moves! Drop your questions in the chat to have them answered during the live stream!
Join Ariel Epstein, Gianni the Greek, John Murray and David Delano as they give their best picks and critical steam moves! Drop your questions in the chat to have them answered during the live stream!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
We love.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Hey everyone, Happy last call Sunday. It's the Bret Queen
aera Epstein. We are taking you through the neft about
forty five minutes. We've got some really great guests as always,
joining the show today to give you guys the.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Sharp sides of the day and some best bets.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
So Yanni the Great is gonna be first as always,
John Murray coming on from the super Book at the
Westgate in Las Vegas to tell you all the needs,
and then David Delano going to give us his best
bets and answer your questions in the chat.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Get the chat going because you guys know that if
there are questions, we'll ask Yanni those questions, We'll ask
John Murray those questions.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
We will ask David Delano those questions. I love getting
the look at both sides.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
You guys know.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
Yanni comes on the show, tells us where all the
sharp groups are. John Murray gives us the sportsbook perspective,
and David Delano is going to help us out with
all of the sides that he feels are the best
for today. So make sure to stay tuned, get involved
in the chat. Good morning to everybody, Kelly and Vegas
is In the chat, she said she needs winners after yesterday.
(01:01):
I have a little bit of a cold, so bear
with me. The Baltimore Ravens did me no favors. They
made me get sick to my stomach. They made me
get sick with a cold because I decided to sit
out in the stupid cold weather on Thanksgiving. Instead of
being warm in Grandma's house, I decided to go to
the Ravens game fifteen mile an hour winds and twenty
(01:22):
five degree weather. So now I'm sick, but it's fine.
We're gonna cash make some money today. Joe Madden also
in the chat from here at wager Talk, saying let's
make some freaking money today. Have an amazing show. Kelly
said that was an awful game. Yeah, thanks, Cal, appreciate that.
How do I deal with a pissed off wife? Kelly
(01:43):
answering the chat for a pissed off wife, she'll know
how to get her more pissed off. Actually, that's what
Kelly does, is get she knows how to make you
more pissed or her more pissed.
Speaker 1 (01:54):
So you should definitely do that.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Chelsea versus Arsenal kicks off in thirty so John Murray
comes on in twenty minutes, so we'll make sure to
ask John what his thoughts are, because he loves that
form of football, actually way more than the American football.
But you know who loves American football, Yanni Degree, who's
going to join us right now from Las Vegas, Yanni
on the Phillies that is back in action, Happy.
Speaker 3 (02:17):
Sunday on Fire. I said, Thanksgiving weekend is one of
the best for football. It's just like the Bowl games,
a much different market you're dealing with. And so far
we've delivered fifteen and seven on NFL in college football
sixty eight percent. And if you go over to wagertalk
dot com right now, I gave out some free premiums
for you guys. I don't know if they started yet,
(02:39):
but I gave out a handball lock like yesterday, and
handball in Germany that cash. I have basketball in Argentina
and I have hockey in France, so there's French hockey,
Argentinian basketball, and handball in Germany. I put out some
of them for free. I don't know if they started
or if they're still valuable, but head on over to
(03:00):
wager talk for those.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
Oh my gosh, we're here to cash today.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
That is no funny, I mean no surprise at all,
because we know that that's the kind of stuff that
Yanni loves to make some money on. But the people
in the chat, they're definitely here to make some money
off the NFL. And now that we did have a
little bit of Thanksgiving action, we had the action yesterday
on Friday. We've got ten games between the one and
the four o'clock slate today. So just starting with the
(03:27):
one o'clock slate, what have you seen early?
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Come in?
Speaker 3 (03:30):
All right, I'll just start off. What's sticking out at
the top. Get your odds logic screens up. Arizona Houston,
I mean Arizona Tampa. That game sticks down a lot
because of all the one sided money on Tampa Bay
coupled with sharp money on Tampa Bay. Here's what happened.
The look ahead was six and a half six, okay,
(03:51):
they dropped it down to two and a half. Immediately
steam came in on Tampa Bay minus two and a
half minus three. That didn't last long at all. Since then,
it's been the public blasting Tampa Bay that has this
up to three and a half. So that's all public
money now laying the three and a half with Tampa
(04:13):
Bay Jacksonville, Tennessee. Actually, I'm pretty sure the books are
probably gonna need the Jacksonville sign because the wise guy
money on Tennessee coupled with some public money on Tennessee. Again,
Jacksonville's not a road favorite. You're really confident in Rams
Carolina Ram steam came in, but I'm not seeing it
(04:34):
reflected in the betting line. I'm always cautious of those.
I saw some Rams minus ten bets in some Sharp accounts,
but again not reflected in the betting line. Miami and
New Orleans one sided, one sided Miami action like they
have tomorrow's newspaper. Sharp's picking off sixes. So if books
want to limit any of the risk, all they have
(04:57):
to do is go to six. And they know guys
like myself are going to snatch that up because that's
what we want. We want New Orleans plus six today
against Miami, Atlanta and the Jets steam on Atlanta. But
that was a minus one. You're now laying three, much
different number. Cleveland got steam against San Francisco, but more
than enough public money to offset that. A lot of
(05:17):
public money on San Francisco. I got my subscribers on
Plus seven on Cleveland. We did our job. Hopefully they
go out there and do theirs. Buffalo Pittsburgh, no surprise,
they're taking the Buffalo Bills. That'll be one of the
heavier later games, and then tonight. Still a little early
to decide looking at six across the board, so it
(05:39):
looks like not all that much risk so far, but
with all the teasers and moneyline parlays, I'm sure they'll
be tied into Denver most likely. So that's some of
the stuff sticking out off the top of my head.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
I think you I'm frozen. Okay, Oh yeah, big oh No,
I don't know why I'm so frozen today.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
Okay, So the Schador Sanders hype, the Shador Sanders hype
has been real the last couple of weeks.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Of course, come again Baltimore. He looks terrible and.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
Then everyone ends up betting Shador last week and somehow
he ends up looking great.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
So that was against a bad team.
Speaker 4 (06:19):
Though.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Now this week, right now, this week, how do we
as a gambler.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
Obviously we have to block out the noise and we
have to think about this completely, like, okay, do we.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
Feed the public. Here we feeding shortly. Where is your
mindset on Shador Sanders.
Speaker 3 (06:36):
Here's the Here's what happened. He comes in for limited
time and he looked awful. Remember he threw like sixteen
attempts only four completions. The narrative was, this dude's awful,
He's terrible. So what happened. The Raiders got steamed. The
Las Vegas Raiders, the worst power rated team, actually got
(06:57):
steamed against Cleveland last week. I was one of the
idiots that was betting the Raiders that helped that line
move up. In fact, so we all have the sharp guys,
we all have the Raiders tickets in our pocket. The public,
they were on Cleveland, I mean they were on the
other side. They were smart. Anyway, Usually we're supposed to
go opposite the narrative that he looked so bad there's
(07:19):
going to be value on him. But he looked so
bad that there's no confidence at all. So the Sharps
even fell for that recency bias and faded. Shador, what
does he do? He gets the job done this week,
You're supposed to think the opposite. Now there's going to
be an overreaction. Here's the problem. Look across the field.
They're playing the San Francisco forty nine ers. That's where
(07:39):
you're getting the benefit. If it was another team, if
it was an average team, a below average team, we
would be looking to fade Cleveland in this spot. But
because it's the San Francisco forty nine ers and there
isn't all that much confidence in Shador. It's not like
he went out there and threw for four hundred yards
and five touchdowns or anything like that. He simply didn't
(07:59):
lose the game for them. I don't see that confidence
in betting him that I usually would see, like you
would get that recency bias. But he didn't look that great. Again,
it was against the Raiders, like you said, and he
didn't light up the you know, the box score or
anything like that. He simply didn't make mistakes that cost
(08:22):
his team the game. But again, they're playing a tough,
tough Niner team that's played better on the road than
at home. This year. They've won five of seven games
seventy one percent on the road compared to being sixty
percent three and two at home, which usually you know
doesn't isn't sustainable. And they're coming off back to back
(08:42):
covers where they blew opposition away. So that's why you're
not getting the public love on Cleveland, but you are
getting the sharps on Cleveland. They took out the sevens,
even the sixes. That's why you're looking at fives right now.
Speaker 1 (08:56):
You mentioned earlier the Bills in the Steelers game.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
So that line is Bill's minus four and a half
last Sunday, then throughout the week it dropped to minus
three and a half.
Speaker 1 (09:05):
We're down to minus three. How much of that is
money and how much of that is because of a
number of adjustment to Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
Yeah, for short's the adjustment to Aaron Rodgers more than
anything else. Because you remember Buffalo's coming off a loss.
Buffalo hasn't looked all that good. In fact, you know
they've lost two of their last three. When in doubt,
you zoom ount, and when I zoom out, I see
a three and three football team over their last six.
Not the kind of team I'm confident laying points on
(09:35):
the road, especially where they're below five hundred. So I
think that's why you started seeing some of that sharp
money coming on Pittsburgh, especially above that key number of three,
because Pittsburgh, even though you know they're barely a six
and five team, one game over five hundred, they haven't
really been getting blown out by margin, like they're not
(09:57):
getting destroyed. Obviously, this is only a three point line,
but you look at a Buffalo awesome offense, but a
week week week strength of schedule and a terrible defense,
and now they're going up against Pittsburgh, which had a
tougher strength of schedule, a little more balanced on offense
and defense. Obviously, Buffalo's the offense is you know, number
(10:19):
one in the NFL, but again that's against a very
easy strength of schedule and without that consistency, I kind
of understand why they took the three and a half.
With the Pittsburgh side. I think at worst it's a
you know, a field goal if that, and that's if
everything goes right for Buffalo.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
We've also got questions in the chat asking about any
totals today.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
Let me see, let me look at the totals that
the San Francisco and Cleveland over. Now that it's at
thirty five, obviously that got steamed down, but now they're
looking to bet that one over where to go Tampa
Bay under? But that line obviously moved a little bit
(11:01):
too much from that look ahead and then where's that Denver? Oh,
and then the Sunday night over they're actually betting this
Sunday night game under again it's a little bit early,
but over in Denver, Washington. So yeah, the thing with
the totals is a lot they moved so significantly, a
lot of the values extracted. Look at Jacksonville getting hit
(11:25):
right now. It looks like where's it dropping? Wow, Jacksonville
dropping Yeah, more Tennessee love.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Yeah, I was seeing that throughout the week too. I
saw jacks ninus seven on Sunday drop to five and
a half. You tell this stuff on the hots logic
screen as well. The totals fluctuated, but it's very low
of a total. You still don't like Tennessee though, or
you just think that we missed the number.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
Now. I like Tennessee. I took I got to Tennessee.
I got my subscribers down at seven on Tennessee. So
I kind of like where we're sitting. You know, Jacksonville's
looked good the last two weeks, you know, beaten the
Chargers as dogs, beaten Arizona on the road in a
coin flip game. They've won three of their last four,
but two of those three wins are by one score.
(12:16):
There's a lot of randomness there. And what I like
about Tennessee is even though they're not winning football games,
they're still giving us a lot of effort. That's why
they've covered three straight games. So again, I like that
they're not really getting blown away by margin and they
still have something to play for. As a one to
ten team, you haven't won a single home game yet
you're zero and six at home. Give your fans a
(12:38):
wu they have a little bit of incentive. And also
you're playing a divisional opponent in Jacksonville that you could
ruin some seasons. This is this is where you could
play spoiler in some of these teams that are jockeying
for the playoffs. So again, are they going to be motivated.
They've shown us eff for the last couple of weeks.
If they could do that, they could keep it within
a touchdown against Jacksonville.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Mister Reid and then said, should we fade the public
with Houston and bet Indy today?
Speaker 3 (13:05):
Oh, fade the public with Houston and bet Indy. He said, right,
that would be fade in the public because it is
heavier for sure on the Houston side. And anytime you
see public money on a dog, always red flags go
(13:25):
up for me because you know, we know the bias
is usually favorites and over It's like if they like
an under heavily, you got to pay attention to it. Obviously,
the sharp money took out the three and a half,
but that could be just the numbers. Play those threes
sevens anytime around key number not surprising, but the look
(13:45):
ahead was higher was four to four and a half,
and since then it's dropped, So you're kind of getting
a discounted Indianapolis team that I do think still has
plenty to play for, especially coming off last week. If
I haven't bet this game, but if I had two,
I would look to Indianapolis to bounce back again. Another
team that's now lost two of their last three, but
(14:06):
both those games by a single score. And Houston's red hot,
you know, winning three straight. But ats they're barely five
hundred this year. Market's done a good job pricing them.
I think if you bet took the four to four
and a half on Houston, I get it right now.
I think it's Indianapolis are past.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
We've also got this game tonight Denver Washington, and then
we've got Giants and Patriots tomorrow, the two primetime games.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
What did you see there, Yeah, Denver Washington. I thought
it would be one to one side of Denver because
of just how you know good Denver's playing. Not only
are they winning games, they've covered three of their last four.
And then what's to be attracted with Washington. You know,
it's a team that hasn't won since the first week
of October. In fact, they haven't covered a single game
since the first week of October. And yet we're not
(14:54):
at seven. In fact, we were at six and a
half this morning and it's dropped. So there is sharp
money on Washington. And I actually have this one power
rated a lot closer. Also, I actually made Denver about
a four and a half point favorite. And the reason simple,
Denver's had about the thirtiest toughest strength of schedule. Only
(15:17):
two teams had an easier go of it. And they
still only have a top twenty five offense, Like, they're
barely in the top twenty five offensively, and they've had
the easiest strength of schedule. I don't want to be
laying a lot of points with a team that struggles
like that offensively. Now, granted they're a top five team
on the defensive side of the ball, but once again,
(15:38):
they've had an easy strength of schedule. When I look
at Washington, their offense and defense, again nothing the right
home account, but they've had a top fifteen strength of schedule.
Like so, you expect the team like that to be
mid tier, which is exactly what they are. Their defense
is struggling. That's what worries me a little bit. I
would have liked their defense to be better than their offense,
(16:01):
but it's the other way around. I'd be more confident.
But I do think it's a little too many points
for the Denver Broncos. And I kind of think this
totals dropped a little bit too low, too down around
that forty three. So for me, I like the dog
haven't touched the total, but I do lean over and
Monday night, Ah, what a good Monday night game. You're
(16:23):
gonna get a lot of a two way action, I think,
because it's up over a touchdown in a lot of places.
But more importantly, you're gonna have a lot of risk
on New England Patriots teasers and moneyline parlays, especially if
Denver covers tonight, there's gonna be a lot tied into
New England, which should force the books to move that
(16:44):
line and give you a discount. The problem with New
England is they're winning games but not covering, and the
reason is they can't win by margin, and why because
they've had an easy strength of schedule and their stats
are average at best, nothing to be excited about. Giants
covered three straight now and they've covered five of the
last seven, so when they're losing, they're not getting blown out.
(17:07):
So even though they've lost six straight, they're not getting
blown out. And now you're looking at up over a touchdown.
I still think this ain't high enough. I think there's
a little recency bias because of how well the Giants
have been playing ATS. I live in the world where
you lay eleven to win ten. I don't care about
straight up records. I care about ATS, and I think
(17:27):
because of that, you're kind of getting a little bit
of discount. Because the look ahead was seven and a
half of New England, and I thought it would climb
up to eight, maybe eight and a half for teaser protection.
That isn't happening. So it looks to me like they
are getting some two way action and not one sided.
New England. I like New England, I don't love it
having gotten to the window. I don't want to pay
myself in a corner because I may be on Giants tomorrow.
(17:50):
But just looking at it from now, that sticks out
to me a little bit. I think there's a little
short on the on the line.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
Yeah, and even before I let you go, we know
that everybody in the world and loves it at the NFL,
but we know other people are smart enough to know
the other sports that are happening today are the sports
that you can make some money on, because the sports
books are very heavy on the NFL today, college basketball,
the other sports you listed, anything else that you're seeing
that people should be taking a look at, and I
(18:18):
know you have some things to promote as well.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
Absolutely, I'll just read off some of the plays that
are in this steam sheet because that has saved me
from the heavy volume. But my subscribers still get all
the steam and information. Here's some of the moves that
they hit. College basketball seven forty one Tennessee State plus
nine plus nine and a half, seven forty six Texas
(18:40):
Tech minus nineteen nineteen and a half and twenty College
at Charleston plus three and a half and three and
then added board. Let's go with Maine plus twelve plus
eleven and a half and eleven NBA they took five,
twenty six, Portland from plus thirteen down the plus twelve,
(19:00):
San Antonio plus four, then under two thirty four and
a half, New Orleans and Lakers. So you're covered in
NBA and college basketball.
Speaker 5 (19:09):
Do some damage today today, Yannie, At nine am Eastern,
we'll be going through all the NFL game side total
player props plus EBU mean nine at Pacific damage damage
nine East, Oh, twelve Eastern yes nine Pacific, Yes, yes, yes.
Speaker 2 (19:27):
Okay, so twelve Eastern time. Guys check out right after this,
go over to the steamer room.
Speaker 1 (19:32):
Get every game that you everything.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
We're covering it all. We're covering it all. My NFL
package I'm doing like last week, only four percents are
in there. Like I said, fifteen and seven coming into
this since Thanksgiving and the Sunday night football games in
there also not separate. So looking for a big day
in NFL. Best of luck to all you guys, whether
you follow our faith hope you do some damage.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
Thanks so much, Johnny, good luck today, Thank you coming
on the show now. Is my very good friend from
over in LUs Vegas. Even though Kelly in Vegas tries
to make him move to Florida. I think he's actually
really being nice today though, joining the show because I
think his mom is in town.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
It's obviously Thanksgiving, John Murray, you left? Is mom gone?
Or did you like really just leave her for us?
Speaker 4 (20:19):
Me and mom went to Delmar on Friday.
Speaker 6 (20:22):
We went to the race truck and then she it
was great, it was awesome, and then she flew back
to Virginia.
Speaker 4 (20:29):
I flew back to Las Vegas.
Speaker 6 (20:30):
I have to come in here on Sundays pretend that
the NFL is entertaining.
Speaker 4 (20:36):
Isn't that what we all do on Sundays?
Speaker 2 (20:37):
You hate so John Murray instead of John Murray, Westgate's
Super Bowl against John Murray hates refs.
Speaker 4 (20:43):
I I find it silly. I think it's very silly.
But people love people love the NFL, and you love
the NFL. You went to an NFL game on Thursday?
Speaker 1 (20:52):
Did you know you hear what happened to me? Because
I decided to go to that game.
Speaker 2 (20:56):
I am now sick because I decided to be sick
in the head and watch the Red Bowl on Thursday night.
Speaker 4 (21:03):
I don't know what? Why?
Speaker 1 (21:05):
Why is that still? Why is when you fumble them
on the end zone?
Speaker 2 (21:09):
Why is that still a freaking call that the ball
goes to the other team as a touchback?
Speaker 1 (21:13):
And why was the Zate Flowers calling? OPI?
Speaker 4 (21:17):
What what's going on with your quarterback? In all serious?
Is he is he injured? I don't He missed some
throws in that.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
Game on social media after the game, I'm I don't know.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
It's so annoying. But anyway, my team's clearly not making
people money. So let's make people money. John Murray, what
are the needs of the day?
Speaker 4 (21:40):
The needs?
Speaker 6 (21:41):
But you know what I need you to do this show.
Last week, Kelly surprised me and was my co host.
I didn't even know she's gonna be on the show.
I thought you I thought she was one of those
perma vacationers. I didn't know she still did anything.
Speaker 1 (21:56):
Saturday Saturday.
Speaker 4 (21:58):
Let's see, we'll need guys these games.
Speaker 6 (22:00):
We'll need Houston this morning they play Indianapolis.
Speaker 4 (22:05):
I guess that's a game we need. We need Cleveland.
Speaker 6 (22:08):
I mean, how many times have I said that over
the last twenty years, Cleveland at home against the forty
nine Ers, will definitely want them. We'll want Minnesota to
at least cover. If they could win, that'd be super,
but we definitely want them to cover. Let's see, this
is the worst slate of games I think I've ever seen,
(22:28):
and we'll we'll need Pittsburgh.
Speaker 4 (22:30):
Well, so we'll need Pittsburgh.
Speaker 6 (22:32):
We'll need the Raiders, and then you've got two games.
Both the primetime games are like a round a touchdown
a touchdown ish, so we'll need both the Dogs. We'll
need the Commandos aka the Commanders, and I think tomorrow
night we'll need the New York Football Giants.
Speaker 4 (22:49):
So we got a lot.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
Of dogs too, So that's pretty good.
Speaker 4 (22:53):
I didn't see a lot of money on that game.
Speaker 6 (22:55):
I mean, yeah, yeah, we'd rather Okay, we'd rather the
Titans win, no doubt, but it's not like it doesn't
look to be as big.
Speaker 4 (23:04):
You know what, we need to call me. We need Arizona.
We need Arizona.
Speaker 6 (23:10):
We need Arizona against Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1 (23:13):
That makes sense.
Speaker 2 (23:13):
A lot of money is coming in on Tampa and
I feel like now it's become very public.
Speaker 6 (23:18):
It's a rough slate of games, like what what are
you what are you going to watch.
Speaker 4 (23:22):
At your at your red zone? Red Zone? Is that
what people do?
Speaker 2 (23:27):
Yeah, I'll probably watch I mean, I have three things
that I watch on, so I'll watch Red Zone and
then I'll see which game is kind of close, and
I'll turn that game on. I don't know, I just
kind of play around with it.
Speaker 4 (23:39):
It don't seem like you're that excited about it.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
Caired.
Speaker 2 (23:42):
I haven't been able to sleep much because of this cold,
and I was at Grandma's house, and my dog doesn't
really like to be out of environments that she's not
used to, so she woke up at like six in
the morning every morning for a week.
Speaker 1 (23:53):
I'm exhausted.
Speaker 6 (23:54):
But I got my dog. I got my pug here.
I'm trying to get him to come over to me.
He's he's actually chewing on a box of Super Book
Polo shirts that's in my office.
Speaker 4 (24:07):
Not on the shirts. The shirts are being left.
Speaker 7 (24:09):
Alone with the dogs. Touch people love dogs. But he's
chewing on the actual Mario. It's not that money. He's
chewing on the actual box. So it's okay.
Speaker 1 (24:20):
It's okay, He'll be fine.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
I actually I'm going to continue with the NFL in
a second, but I know in five minutes there is
a big football match in Europe.
Speaker 4 (24:30):
Yeah. Yeah, thoughts who asked that question? One of your listeners,
someone in.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
The chat, like at the beginning of the show. One
of your thoughts, I think it was Arsenal. Is that
who plays Yeah, Arsenal.
Speaker 6 (24:40):
Arsenal plays Chelsea. Unfortunately, it looks like Arsenal. You know,
they're owned by the Walmart people. That's how they have
all this money. So yeah, oh yeah, most of the
big soccer clubs are owned by Americans. I don't think
people realize that, but yeah, they're owned by the Walmart people.
And it looks like they've spent enough money to finally
(25:01):
win a trophy. Arsenal never wins anything, but it looks
like they are finally gonna win something this year. We
took a little bit of money on the over over
two and a half.
Speaker 4 (25:10):
Okay, don't.
Speaker 6 (25:12):
We don't have a big need on the game, but
there's a little bit of money on the game. Big game,
Chelsea versus Arsenal.
Speaker 1 (25:16):
Is that what you're gonna be watching?
Speaker 6 (25:18):
I'll watch that, and then I'll watch This is what
I do on Sundays, just so that the people your
fans know.
Speaker 4 (25:23):
I watch the soccer games, and then I watch horse racing.
Speaker 6 (25:28):
And then I do watch the NFL the last ten
minutes or so of the game because I need to
know who won. So I can do these shows. But
I'm not gonna sit there for four hours and act
like it's not terrible, because it's awful. But I always
watch the ends of the games so I can see
who wins.
Speaker 2 (25:45):
That's okay, I mean, honestly, all you really need is
the fourth quarter and seeing what more do you need?
Speaker 1 (25:50):
More?
Speaker 2 (25:50):
One hundred totally, And let's get to totals because we've
got some people in the chat asking what totals you
guys need.
Speaker 6 (25:57):
Yeah, it's a good question. We need the under in
Arizona Tampa Bay. That total right now is at forty
four and a half. We would want to see that
thing stay under that number. It looks like we'll we'll
end up needing the under in all likelihood in the
in the Night game in how are the Commanders on
Sunday Night Football?
Speaker 1 (26:17):
By the way, Well, they have their quarterback, that's your team.
Speaker 4 (26:21):
Well, they don't.
Speaker 6 (26:22):
They don't flex those games out anymore.
Speaker 4 (26:25):
Too early for the flex. I'd say that one we'll
need under.
Speaker 6 (26:30):
And there's a little bit of money on over in
the San Francisco game, which is actually a little unusual
because usually with those really really low totals, they like
to bet them under. But they've bet that one over.
Right now, we're at thirty five. That should be a
good game.
Speaker 2 (26:47):
Oh, that's gonna be fun. John Fizzell wants to know
best dog of the day.
Speaker 4 (26:52):
Best dog of the day in who's your opinion the day?
My dog of the day?
Speaker 8 (26:57):
Uh?
Speaker 4 (27:00):
Oh boy, good question, man. Let's see here.
Speaker 6 (27:05):
You know, I could see Pittsburgh beating Buffalo. You know,
I don't think buff that. I don't think Buffalo is
a good team.
Speaker 4 (27:12):
I really don't.
Speaker 6 (27:12):
I've watched I've watched an unfortunate amount of them play
this season.
Speaker 4 (27:16):
I don't like the coaching staff. I don't think that
they have a good roster.
Speaker 6 (27:20):
I think that they have a great I know they
have a great player at quarterback, but I don't think
that they're a very.
Speaker 4 (27:24):
Good team overall.
Speaker 6 (27:25):
And they're really banged up on the offensive line today,
so that could be a real problem for them against
that pass rush in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
Well, that my question.
Speaker 2 (27:33):
I asked Yanni this, and I'll ask you, since you
actually do set the lines, how much of that adjustment
from Buffalo minus four and a half to minus three
was because Aaron Rodgers is playing?
Speaker 1 (27:45):
Or was it sharp money coming in?
Speaker 6 (27:47):
I don't think it's Aaron Rodgers, I'll tell you that
right now. I don't know if there's a big difference
between Rogers and Rudolph. I think it's got more to
do with the injuries along Buffalo's offensive line. Buffalo just
not looking very good. I mean, I know that's not
the most scientific way of putting it. Buffalo does not
look good right now. Should they be laying a lot
of points on the road against Pittsburgh? I don't think so.
Speaker 4 (28:10):
I mean when was When was the last time Buffalo
won a big game on the road.
Speaker 1 (28:15):
Well, I just don't have much faith in Aaron Rodgers. Up.
Do we have a puppy?
Speaker 4 (28:21):
I'm getting it. He like he's a real ham. He
likes to be on TV.
Speaker 1 (28:27):
Oh, Mario high cuty. I wish I could lift my
dog up like that.
Speaker 4 (28:37):
How big? What does your dog weigh?
Speaker 1 (28:40):
Forts?
Speaker 4 (28:41):
Oh? Geez.
Speaker 6 (28:42):
Yeah, so he him and his sister are both like
eighteen pounds. So if I need to, I can just
pick them both up when they're being.
Speaker 1 (28:49):
Bad, which is always you like that control?
Speaker 6 (28:52):
I guess I mean it's it makes it easier because
he doesn't exactly listen to anything.
Speaker 4 (28:57):
He just does whatever he wants. I guess when you
have a face like this, you just do whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
I guess, right, that's true. They live the best life.
I want to come back in my next life as
a dog. It's nice to see John have a barking dog.
Speaker 4 (29:09):
Now, well, it's funny.
Speaker 6 (29:13):
But his sister, who you've met, who actually you wants
kidnapped from my home.
Speaker 4 (29:18):
El Ellie is a is a real barker. She's a howler.
Speaker 1 (29:21):
She's a beagle, which is why she can't go into work.
Speaker 6 (29:24):
Yeah, because if I leave my office, she howls until
I get back, so I can't bring her. I can't
bring her in him. I'll just give him to one
of my coworkers and he'll be fine.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
See.
Speaker 1 (29:34):
Marley is a beagle hound mix and she actually doesn't
bark much except when she wants to play.
Speaker 4 (29:40):
Huh wow. Oh geez. Well that's true.
Speaker 2 (29:44):
That's very well trained that I'm a dog expert's dog. Pittsburgh, Pittsburg,
Pittsburgh Steelers. I'm in baseball mode already, clearly, Uh, can
you give sharp plays with the spread? We did that, guys,
we did.
Speaker 4 (30:00):
We gave needs. I don't know.
Speaker 6 (30:02):
I mean I would say sharp plays Atlanta Atlanta as
a team.
Speaker 4 (30:10):
Atlanta got a lot of sharp money Indianapolis or not Indianapolis.
Speaker 6 (30:14):
Scratch that, Houston got some sharp money against Indianapolis. Let's
see when when Pittsburgh was plus three and a half
they played Pittsburgh, when the Commanders were plus six and
a half, they played the Commanders.
Speaker 4 (30:28):
And I think that there's I think you're gonna see.
Speaker 6 (30:31):
Some real pros Joe's action tomorrow night in the Monday
night game. I think the public is the public loves
New England, and can you blame them?
Speaker 4 (30:42):
They win every week? I don't you know.
Speaker 6 (30:44):
At some point you have to just say that the
public is right to be backing this team that always
wins and always covers. They like New England, and I've
seen some sharp guys say they like the Giants.
Speaker 2 (30:55):
Yeah, I mean, I just am not buying the New
England hype, but I wasn't in the Indianapolis hype. And
look at what's gone on with the Colts, the New
England hype. They've just had the easiest schedule, so it's
so hard to feel like they're actually legit.
Speaker 6 (31:10):
Well, I think that I will say this all kidding aside.
I think the AFC future book this season is one
of the most interesting future books I've ever seen since
I've been in the industry, because you have five teams
that all basically have the same odds. Denver and New
England because of their records because they're gonna have home field,
(31:30):
and then Kansas City, Buffalo and Baltimore because those are
the three teams in some order that we think are
the actual best teams in the AFC. So what's gonna
happen in the playoffs? I have no idea. I have
no idea what's gonna happen in the AFC playoffs. I
think over in the NFC, the Rams are pretty clearly
the best team, But in the AFC, I don't know
(31:51):
what's gonna happen. You're gonna have the better teams with
more playoff experience going on the road to play these
young teams with young quarterbacks, and I don't know what's
gonna happen. It should be pretty pretty interesting AFC playoffs.
Speaker 1 (32:03):
Who do you like the most out of the AFC?
Speaker 6 (32:06):
I think if I mean, it's hard to say this
after what we just watched on Thursday, but I do
believe if everybody was healthy that Baltimore would be the
best team. But clearly they're not healthy. There has to
be something wrong with Lamar Jackson.
Speaker 1 (32:21):
Yo or he's going blind.
Speaker 2 (32:23):
I mean, some of the throws that he missed, he
wasn't moving badly, but the problem. Remember his injury was
the ankle, but the movement wasn't the problem.
Speaker 1 (32:32):
It was his arm.
Speaker 6 (32:34):
Yeah, he missed some, he missed some easy throws. I
think I would still say probably Baltimore. But the team
that could be dangerous if they get there is Kansas City.
They know how to win, they're they're they're they're coaching staff, astrology. Well,
Kelly loves a lot of things, but including dogs. She's
(32:55):
got a new dog.
Speaker 1 (32:56):
Writer she did.
Speaker 4 (32:58):
He's cute.
Speaker 6 (32:59):
But I think Kansas City's coaching staff is not going
to make the mistakes at the end of the game
that Buffalo's coaching staff always seems to make so I
have to trust them more than I trust Buffalo.
Speaker 4 (33:11):
Denver and New England. We'll see.
Speaker 6 (33:13):
I don't I don't really like bo Nicks, to be
honest with you, I don't really Kelly. Yeah, I don't
really think well, Kelly. Kelly is very negative. You know,
Kelly's very ends. I'm more.
Speaker 8 (33:24):
You're not more you know, easy going, optimistic, just hatess.
I don't think the NFL product is very good that,
but I rem I recognize that it's very good for business,
very very good for business.
Speaker 1 (33:43):
And that's about where it ends. Your dog is great
for business too. Hello, Mario, I'll let you go be
with your dog.
Speaker 2 (33:49):
Go say hi to Elie for as Marley is curled
up in a ball underneath the desk right now.
Speaker 1 (33:55):
She is not pick up a ball. She is too
big for me.
Speaker 6 (33:58):
But this guy's Let me tell this guy's favorite thing
in the world, and I'll let you guys go. He
likes to get just truck sticked by a bigger dog,
I mean trucked, and then he'll get off his back,
run towards that dog, bite him or her on their leg,
and then run away, squealing in delight and what he
just got away with. That is his favorite thing to do.
Speaker 4 (34:19):
He loves to be chased. He loves to wrestle with
dogs that are twice three four times a center mix.
Speaker 1 (34:24):
So come to New York, bring Mario and him and
Marlee could play. He'd love it, Marley and Mario, he
would love it. John Mary, thank you for the needs.
Thank you for the totals. We appreciate you. Have a
great Sunday.
Speaker 4 (34:37):
You could.
Speaker 1 (34:39):
Covin on.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
Now we're gonna be joined by Wager talks on David Delano.
Speaker 1 (34:44):
He's gonna answer all of you. Oh, Dave is not
in here. Well that's not good. Well then it's just me.
So if Dave's not here, then I'll just go through
my props of the day. Let's get to some props and.
Speaker 2 (34:59):
You can find all these at the prop queen dot com,
where I post all of my lung lists of props
every day in the NFL. So starting with over on
receiving yards. I actually told this to Kelly earlier this week.
She texted me she said, what's some early props that
you would look at? So the Bucks have allowed the
most receiving yards per game to running backs Michael Carter,
(35:19):
and again this is just figuring out the running back
room because there's some injuries there in Arizona. But Michael Carter,
he's got over his receiving yard prop in five of
seven games this year, facing team's bottom ten against pass
catching backs, He's racked up at least fifteen receiving yards
in three of those five games. Danning backs last year,
sixty seven percent of running backs have gone over their
receiving yard prop against Tampa. If you do believe that
(35:42):
this Titans Jaguars game is going to be close, cam
Ward over his pass attempts. It's thirty three and a
half he's got over in four of six home games,
facing team's bottom ten and pass attempts allowed.
Speaker 1 (35:53):
This season, Wards had at least thirty three.
Speaker 2 (35:55):
Pass attempts in all four games, thirty eight plus pass
attempts in three of those four games.
Speaker 1 (36:00):
The Jaguars have allowed the third most past attempts per game.
Speaker 2 (36:03):
Sixty four percent of quarterbacks have gone over their past
atteenp prop against the Jags.
Speaker 1 (36:08):
Some longest reception props, you guys know, I like those.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
Tennessee's tight end Chicken Kung Wu over his longest reception
Brian Thomas over his longest reception. He leads the Jags
wide receivers and longest receptions.
Speaker 1 (36:22):
Do what else did I like today?
Speaker 2 (36:26):
Chiuwan Johnson over seventeen and a half yards for his
longest reception. The Saints tight end is getting a terrible
Dolphins d against tight ends. Johnson's gone over this in
two of three road games with Tyler Show at quarterback.
Dating back to last year, Johnson's averaging twenty three yards
per longest catch when facing a team bottom ten against
(36:46):
tight ends. The Dolphins have allowed the fifth most receiving
yards per game to tight ends this year. Sixty five
percent of tight ends have gone over their longest reception
prop when going up against this defense. Let's see if
you feel like you want some actually. In the bill
Steelers game, Josh Allen over is passing yards. I know
(37:08):
on the road the Bills haven't been great, but that's
why he's gonna have to throw the football. He's thrown
at least three hundred passing yards in both games that
he's faced this year that are bottom ten in passing
yards allowed Pittsburgh, even though their pass rush is good,
Allen's mobile enough and you get out of some gems
and Pittsburgh their secondary.
Speaker 1 (37:25):
Has been bad.
Speaker 2 (37:25):
They've allowed the most passing yards per game this year
two hundred and seventy plus passing yards in two or
three games against Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1 (37:32):
For Josh Allen in his career, eighty two.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
Percent of quarterbacks have gotten over their passing yard prop
against the Steelers. Okay, I'm still going I guess no date.
I guess s Delano's not gonna come out to that.
Gino Smith's under his completions. So it's so unconventional that
Gino Smith went over against the Chargers on his completions
in the first matchup.
Speaker 1 (37:55):
And I'll tell you why.
Speaker 2 (37:57):
This year, the Chargers have allowed the third least completions
per game to quarterbacks. There have been three quarterbacks to
go over their completion prop this year against the Chargers,
Patrick Mahomes, Daniel Jones, and Genosmith. Now that we are
getting a second game of Gino up against the Chargers,
it ain't happening again.
Speaker 1 (38:18):
He had ten and sixteen completions Gino this year on
the road and divisional games.
Speaker 2 (38:22):
Getting them a second time, Chargers d will be good
enough to limit Genosmith. So we're going under completions on Genosmith.
So some of those are some of the props that
I like the most today. Again, you can check it
out at the prop queen dot com. We definitely have
all the different props posted that are great. And make
sure to go and look at your odds Logic board.
(38:42):
You could do oddslogic dot com slash prop Queen subscribe
today and yet all of the line movements and best
odds in the marketplace for us here on Waiger Talks
Last Call, I'm the prop Queen Ariel Epstein.
Speaker 1 (38:55):
Thank you to John Murray. Thank you to Yanny the
Greek for coming on the show.
Speaker 2 (38:59):
And again, if you need the needs, John Murray said,
the super book needs Houston, Cleveland, Minnesota, Pittsburgh Raiders, both
primetime dogs for Sunday Night and Monday Night football, Arizona,
the under in Arizona, Tampa, and the under in Denver
and Washington. Those are the needs of the day. Thank
you everyone for dealing with Mike cold. I'm sorry I
(39:22):
don't normally sound like this. I'm super congested. Thank you
to the Ravens for ruining my thanksgiving. Thank you to
all of you for tuning in We will see you
guys next week. Here on wager Talk's last call,
We love.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Hey everyone, Happy last call Sunday. It's the Bret Queen
aera Epstein. We are taking you through the neft about
forty five minutes. We've got some really great guests as always,
joining the show today to give you guys the.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Sharp sides of the day and some best bets.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
So Yanni the Great is gonna be first as always,
John Murray coming on from the super Book at the
Westgate in Las Vegas to tell you all the needs,
and then David Delano going to give us his best
bets and answer your questions in the chat.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Get the chat going because you guys know that if
there are questions, we'll ask Yanni those questions, We'll ask
John Murray those questions.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
We will ask David Delano those questions. I love getting
the look at both sides.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
You guys know.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
Yanni comes on the show, tells us where all the
sharp groups are. John Murray gives us the sportsbook perspective,
and David Delano is going to help us out with
all of the sides that he feels are the best
for today. So make sure to stay tuned, get involved
in the chat. Good morning to everybody, Kelly and Vegas
is In the chat, she said she needs winners after yesterday.
(01:01):
I have a little bit of a cold, so bear
with me. The Baltimore Ravens did me no favors. They
made me get sick to my stomach. They made me
get sick with a cold because I decided to sit
out in the stupid cold weather on Thanksgiving. Instead of
being warm in Grandma's house, I decided to go to
the Ravens game fifteen mile an hour winds and twenty
(01:22):
five degree weather. So now I'm sick, but it's fine.
We're gonna cash make some money today. Joe Madden also
in the chat from here at wager Talk, saying let's
make some freaking money today. Have an amazing show. Kelly
said that was an awful game. Yeah, thanks, Cal, appreciate that.
How do I deal with a pissed off wife? Kelly
(01:43):
answering the chat for a pissed off wife, she'll know
how to get her more pissed off. Actually, that's what
Kelly does, is get she knows how to make you
more pissed or her more pissed.
Speaker 1 (01:54):
So you should definitely do that.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Chelsea versus Arsenal kicks off in thirty so John Murray
comes on in twenty minutes, so we'll make sure to
ask John what his thoughts are, because he loves that
form of football, actually way more than the American football.
But you know who loves American football, Yanni Degree, who's
going to join us right now from Las Vegas, Yanni
on the Phillies that is back in action, Happy.
Speaker 3 (02:17):
Sunday on Fire. I said, Thanksgiving weekend is one of
the best for football. It's just like the Bowl games,
a much different market you're dealing with. And so far
we've delivered fifteen and seven on NFL in college football
sixty eight percent. And if you go over to wagertalk
dot com right now, I gave out some free premiums
for you guys. I don't know if they started yet,
(02:39):
but I gave out a handball lock like yesterday, and
handball in Germany that cash. I have basketball in Argentina
and I have hockey in France, so there's French hockey,
Argentinian basketball, and handball in Germany. I put out some
of them for free. I don't know if they started
or if they're still valuable, but head on over to
(03:00):
wager talk for those.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
Oh my gosh, we're here to cash today.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
That is no funny, I mean no surprise at all,
because we know that that's the kind of stuff that
Yanni loves to make some money on. But the people
in the chat, they're definitely here to make some money
off the NFL. And now that we did have a
little bit of Thanksgiving action, we had the action yesterday
on Friday. We've got ten games between the one and
the four o'clock slate today. So just starting with the
(03:27):
one o'clock slate, what have you seen early?
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Come in?
Speaker 3 (03:30):
All right, I'll just start off. What's sticking out at
the top. Get your odds logic screens up. Arizona Houston,
I mean Arizona Tampa. That game sticks down a lot
because of all the one sided money on Tampa Bay
coupled with sharp money on Tampa Bay. Here's what happened.
The look ahead was six and a half six, okay,
(03:51):
they dropped it down to two and a half. Immediately
steam came in on Tampa Bay minus two and a
half minus three. That didn't last long at all. Since then,
it's been the public blasting Tampa Bay that has this
up to three and a half. So that's all public
money now laying the three and a half with Tampa
(04:13):
Bay Jacksonville, Tennessee. Actually, I'm pretty sure the books are
probably gonna need the Jacksonville sign because the wise guy
money on Tennessee coupled with some public money on Tennessee. Again,
Jacksonville's not a road favorite. You're really confident in Rams
Carolina Ram steam came in, but I'm not seeing it
(04:34):
reflected in the betting line. I'm always cautious of those.
I saw some Rams minus ten bets in some Sharp accounts,
but again not reflected in the betting line. Miami and
New Orleans one sided, one sided Miami action like they
have tomorrow's newspaper. Sharp's picking off sixes. So if books
want to limit any of the risk, all they have
(04:57):
to do is go to six. And they know guys
like myself are going to snatch that up because that's
what we want. We want New Orleans plus six today
against Miami, Atlanta and the Jets steam on Atlanta. But
that was a minus one. You're now laying three, much
different number. Cleveland got steam against San Francisco, but more
than enough public money to offset that. A lot of
(05:17):
public money on San Francisco. I got my subscribers on
Plus seven on Cleveland. We did our job. Hopefully they
go out there and do theirs. Buffalo Pittsburgh, no surprise,
they're taking the Buffalo Bills. That'll be one of the
heavier later games, and then tonight. Still a little early
to decide looking at six across the board, so it
(05:39):
looks like not all that much risk so far, but
with all the teasers and moneyline parlays, I'm sure they'll
be tied into Denver most likely. So that's some of
the stuff sticking out off the top of my head.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
I think you I'm frozen. Okay, Oh yeah, big oh No,
I don't know why I'm so frozen today.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
Okay, So the Schador Sanders hype, the Shador Sanders hype
has been real the last couple of weeks.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Of course, come again Baltimore. He looks terrible and.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
Then everyone ends up betting Shador last week and somehow
he ends up looking great.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
So that was against a bad team.
Speaker 4 (06:19):
Though.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Now this week, right now, this week, how do we
as a gambler.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
Obviously we have to block out the noise and we
have to think about this completely, like, okay, do we.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
Feed the public. Here we feeding shortly. Where is your
mindset on Shador Sanders.
Speaker 3 (06:36):
Here's the Here's what happened. He comes in for limited
time and he looked awful. Remember he threw like sixteen
attempts only four completions. The narrative was, this dude's awful,
He's terrible. So what happened. The Raiders got steamed. The
Las Vegas Raiders, the worst power rated team, actually got
(06:57):
steamed against Cleveland last week. I was one of the
idiots that was betting the Raiders that helped that line
move up. In fact, so we all have the sharp guys,
we all have the Raiders tickets in our pocket. The public,
they were on Cleveland, I mean they were on the
other side. They were smart. Anyway, Usually we're supposed to
go opposite the narrative that he looked so bad there's
(07:19):
going to be value on him. But he looked so
bad that there's no confidence at all. So the Sharps
even fell for that recency bias and faded. Shador, what
does he do? He gets the job done this week,
You're supposed to think the opposite. Now there's going to
be an overreaction. Here's the problem. Look across the field.
They're playing the San Francisco forty nine ers. That's where
(07:39):
you're getting the benefit. If it was another team, if
it was an average team, a below average team, we
would be looking to fade Cleveland in this spot. But
because it's the San Francisco forty nine ers and there
isn't all that much confidence in Shador. It's not like
he went out there and threw for four hundred yards
and five touchdowns or anything like that. He simply didn't
(07:59):
lose the game for them. I don't see that confidence
in betting him that I usually would see, like you
would get that recency bias. But he didn't look that great. Again,
it was against the Raiders, like you said, and he
didn't light up the you know, the box score or
anything like that. He simply didn't make mistakes that cost
(08:22):
his team the game. But again, they're playing a tough,
tough Niner team that's played better on the road than
at home. This year. They've won five of seven games
seventy one percent on the road compared to being sixty
percent three and two at home, which usually you know
doesn't isn't sustainable. And they're coming off back to back
(08:42):
covers where they blew opposition away. So that's why you're
not getting the public love on Cleveland, but you are
getting the sharps on Cleveland. They took out the sevens,
even the sixes. That's why you're looking at fives right now.
Speaker 1 (08:56):
You mentioned earlier the Bills in the Steelers game.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
So that line is Bill's minus four and a half
last Sunday, then throughout the week it dropped to minus
three and a half.
Speaker 1 (09:05):
We're down to minus three. How much of that is
money and how much of that is because of a
number of adjustment to Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
Yeah, for short's the adjustment to Aaron Rodgers more than
anything else. Because you remember Buffalo's coming off a loss.
Buffalo hasn't looked all that good. In fact, you know
they've lost two of their last three. When in doubt,
you zoom ount, and when I zoom out, I see
a three and three football team over their last six.
Not the kind of team I'm confident laying points on
(09:35):
the road, especially where they're below five hundred. So I
think that's why you started seeing some of that sharp
money coming on Pittsburgh, especially above that key number of three,
because Pittsburgh, even though you know they're barely a six
and five team, one game over five hundred, they haven't
really been getting blown out by margin, like they're not
(09:57):
getting destroyed. Obviously, this is only a three point line,
but you look at a Buffalo awesome offense, but a
week week week strength of schedule and a terrible defense,
and now they're going up against Pittsburgh, which had a
tougher strength of schedule, a little more balanced on offense
and defense. Obviously, Buffalo's the offense is you know, number
(10:19):
one in the NFL, but again that's against a very
easy strength of schedule and without that consistency, I kind
of understand why they took the three and a half.
With the Pittsburgh side. I think at worst it's a
you know, a field goal if that, and that's if
everything goes right for Buffalo.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
We've also got questions in the chat asking about any
totals today.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
Let me see, let me look at the totals that
the San Francisco and Cleveland over. Now that it's at
thirty five, obviously that got steamed down, but now they're
looking to bet that one over where to go Tampa
Bay under? But that line obviously moved a little bit
(11:01):
too much from that look ahead and then where's that Denver? Oh,
and then the Sunday night over they're actually betting this
Sunday night game under again it's a little bit early,
but over in Denver, Washington. So yeah, the thing with
the totals is a lot they moved so significantly, a
lot of the values extracted. Look at Jacksonville getting hit
(11:25):
right now. It looks like where's it dropping? Wow, Jacksonville
dropping Yeah, more Tennessee love.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Yeah, I was seeing that throughout the week too. I
saw jacks ninus seven on Sunday drop to five and
a half. You tell this stuff on the hots logic
screen as well. The totals fluctuated, but it's very low
of a total. You still don't like Tennessee though, or
you just think that we missed the number.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
Now. I like Tennessee. I took I got to Tennessee.
I got my subscribers down at seven on Tennessee. So
I kind of like where we're sitting. You know, Jacksonville's
looked good the last two weeks, you know, beaten the
Chargers as dogs, beaten Arizona on the road in a
coin flip game. They've won three of their last four,
but two of those three wins are by one score.
(12:16):
There's a lot of randomness there. And what I like
about Tennessee is even though they're not winning football games,
they're still giving us a lot of effort. That's why
they've covered three straight games. So again, I like that
they're not really getting blown away by margin and they
still have something to play for. As a one to
ten team, you haven't won a single home game yet
you're zero and six at home. Give your fans a
(12:38):
wu they have a little bit of incentive. And also
you're playing a divisional opponent in Jacksonville that you could
ruin some seasons. This is this is where you could
play spoiler in some of these teams that are jockeying
for the playoffs. So again, are they going to be motivated.
They've shown us eff for the last couple of weeks.
If they could do that, they could keep it within
a touchdown against Jacksonville.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Mister Reid and then said, should we fade the public
with Houston and bet Indy today?
Speaker 3 (13:05):
Oh, fade the public with Houston and bet Indy. He said, right,
that would be fade in the public because it is
heavier for sure on the Houston side. And anytime you
see public money on a dog, always red flags go
(13:25):
up for me because you know, we know the bias
is usually favorites and over It's like if they like
an under heavily, you got to pay attention to it. Obviously,
the sharp money took out the three and a half,
but that could be just the numbers. Play those threes
sevens anytime around key number not surprising, but the look
(13:45):
ahead was higher was four to four and a half,
and since then it's dropped, So you're kind of getting
a discounted Indianapolis team that I do think still has
plenty to play for, especially coming off last week. If
I haven't bet this game, but if I had two,
I would look to Indianapolis to bounce back again. Another
team that's now lost two of their last three, but
(14:06):
both those games by a single score. And Houston's red hot,
you know, winning three straight. But ats they're barely five
hundred this year. Market's done a good job pricing them.
I think if you bet took the four to four
and a half on Houston, I get it right now.
I think it's Indianapolis are past.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
We've also got this game tonight Denver Washington, and then
we've got Giants and Patriots tomorrow, the two primetime games.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
What did you see there, Yeah, Denver Washington. I thought
it would be one to one side of Denver because
of just how you know good Denver's playing. Not only
are they winning games, they've covered three of their last four.
And then what's to be attracted with Washington. You know,
it's a team that hasn't won since the first week
of October. In fact, they haven't covered a single game
since the first week of October. And yet we're not
(14:54):
at seven. In fact, we were at six and a
half this morning and it's dropped. So there is sharp
money on Washington. And I actually have this one power
rated a lot closer. Also, I actually made Denver about
a four and a half point favorite. And the reason simple,
Denver's had about the thirtiest toughest strength of schedule. Only
(15:17):
two teams had an easier go of it. And they
still only have a top twenty five offense, Like, they're
barely in the top twenty five offensively, and they've had
the easiest strength of schedule. I don't want to be
laying a lot of points with a team that struggles
like that offensively. Now, granted they're a top five team
on the defensive side of the ball, but once again,
(15:38):
they've had an easy strength of schedule. When I look
at Washington, their offense and defense, again nothing the right
home account, but they've had a top fifteen strength of schedule.
Like so, you expect the team like that to be
mid tier, which is exactly what they are. Their defense
is struggling. That's what worries me a little bit. I
would have liked their defense to be better than their offense,
(16:01):
but it's the other way around. I'd be more confident.
But I do think it's a little too many points
for the Denver Broncos. And I kind of think this
totals dropped a little bit too low, too down around
that forty three. So for me, I like the dog
haven't touched the total, but I do lean over and
Monday night, Ah, what a good Monday night game. You're
(16:23):
gonna get a lot of a two way action, I think,
because it's up over a touchdown in a lot of places.
But more importantly, you're gonna have a lot of risk
on New England Patriots teasers and moneyline parlays, especially if
Denver covers tonight, there's gonna be a lot tied into
New England, which should force the books to move that
(16:44):
line and give you a discount. The problem with New
England is they're winning games but not covering, and the
reason is they can't win by margin, and why because
they've had an easy strength of schedule and their stats
are average at best, nothing to be excited about. Giants
covered three straight now and they've covered five of the
last seven, so when they're losing, they're not getting blown out.
(17:07):
So even though they've lost six straight, they're not getting
blown out. And now you're looking at up over a touchdown.
I still think this ain't high enough. I think there's
a little recency bias because of how well the Giants
have been playing ATS. I live in the world where
you lay eleven to win ten. I don't care about
straight up records. I care about ATS, and I think
(17:27):
because of that, you're kind of getting a little bit
of discount. Because the look ahead was seven and a
half of New England, and I thought it would climb
up to eight, maybe eight and a half for teaser protection.
That isn't happening. So it looks to me like they
are getting some two way action and not one sided.
New England. I like New England, I don't love it
having gotten to the window. I don't want to pay
myself in a corner because I may be on Giants tomorrow.
(17:50):
But just looking at it from now, that sticks out
to me a little bit. I think there's a little
short on the on the line.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
Yeah, and even before I let you go, we know
that everybody in the world and loves it at the NFL,
but we know other people are smart enough to know
the other sports that are happening today are the sports
that you can make some money on, because the sports
books are very heavy on the NFL today, college basketball,
the other sports you listed, anything else that you're seeing
that people should be taking a look at, and I
(18:18):
know you have some things to promote as well.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
Absolutely, I'll just read off some of the plays that
are in this steam sheet because that has saved me
from the heavy volume. But my subscribers still get all
the steam and information. Here's some of the moves that
they hit. College basketball seven forty one Tennessee State plus
nine plus nine and a half, seven forty six Texas
(18:40):
Tech minus nineteen nineteen and a half and twenty College
at Charleston plus three and a half and three and
then added board. Let's go with Maine plus twelve plus
eleven and a half and eleven NBA they took five,
twenty six, Portland from plus thirteen down the plus twelve,
(19:00):
San Antonio plus four, then under two thirty four and
a half, New Orleans and Lakers. So you're covered in
NBA and college basketball.
Speaker 5 (19:09):
Do some damage today today, Yannie, At nine am Eastern,
we'll be going through all the NFL game side total
player props plus EBU mean nine at Pacific damage damage
nine East, Oh, twelve Eastern yes nine Pacific, Yes, yes, yes.
Speaker 2 (19:27):
Okay, so twelve Eastern time. Guys check out right after this,
go over to the steamer room.
Speaker 1 (19:32):
Get every game that you everything.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
We're covering it all. We're covering it all. My NFL
package I'm doing like last week, only four percents are
in there. Like I said, fifteen and seven coming into
this since Thanksgiving and the Sunday night football games in
there also not separate. So looking for a big day
in NFL. Best of luck to all you guys, whether
you follow our faith hope you do some damage.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
Thanks so much, Johnny, good luck today, Thank you coming
on the show now. Is my very good friend from
over in LUs Vegas. Even though Kelly in Vegas tries
to make him move to Florida. I think he's actually
really being nice today though, joining the show because I
think his mom is in town.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
It's obviously Thanksgiving, John Murray, you left? Is mom gone?
Or did you like really just leave her for us?
Speaker 4 (20:19):
Me and mom went to Delmar on Friday.
Speaker 6 (20:22):
We went to the race truck and then she it
was great, it was awesome, and then she flew back
to Virginia.
Speaker 4 (20:29):
I flew back to Las Vegas.
Speaker 6 (20:30):
I have to come in here on Sundays pretend that
the NFL is entertaining.
Speaker 4 (20:36):
Isn't that what we all do on Sundays?
Speaker 2 (20:37):
You hate so John Murray instead of John Murray, Westgate's
Super Bowl against John Murray hates refs.
Speaker 4 (20:43):
I I find it silly. I think it's very silly.
But people love people love the NFL, and you love
the NFL. You went to an NFL game on Thursday?
Speaker 1 (20:52):
Did you know you hear what happened to me? Because
I decided to go to that game.
Speaker 2 (20:56):
I am now sick because I decided to be sick
in the head and watch the Red Bowl on Thursday night.
Speaker 4 (21:03):
I don't know what? Why?
Speaker 1 (21:05):
Why is that still? Why is when you fumble them
on the end zone?
Speaker 2 (21:09):
Why is that still a freaking call that the ball
goes to the other team as a touchback?
Speaker 1 (21:13):
And why was the Zate Flowers calling? OPI?
Speaker 4 (21:17):
What what's going on with your quarterback? In all serious?
Is he is he injured? I don't He missed some
throws in that.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
Game on social media after the game, I'm I don't know.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
It's so annoying. But anyway, my team's clearly not making
people money. So let's make people money. John Murray, what
are the needs of the day?
Speaker 4 (21:40):
The needs?
Speaker 6 (21:41):
But you know what I need you to do this show.
Last week, Kelly surprised me and was my co host.
I didn't even know she's gonna be on the show.
I thought you I thought she was one of those
perma vacationers. I didn't know she still did anything.
Speaker 1 (21:56):
Saturday Saturday.
Speaker 4 (21:58):
Let's see, we'll need guys these games.
Speaker 6 (22:00):
We'll need Houston this morning they play Indianapolis.
Speaker 4 (22:05):
I guess that's a game we need. We need Cleveland.
Speaker 6 (22:08):
I mean, how many times have I said that over
the last twenty years, Cleveland at home against the forty
nine Ers, will definitely want them. We'll want Minnesota to
at least cover. If they could win, that'd be super,
but we definitely want them to cover. Let's see, this
is the worst slate of games I think I've ever seen,
(22:28):
and we'll we'll need Pittsburgh.
Speaker 4 (22:30):
Well, so we'll need Pittsburgh.
Speaker 6 (22:32):
We'll need the Raiders, and then you've got two games.
Both the primetime games are like a round a touchdown
a touchdown ish, so we'll need both the Dogs. We'll
need the Commandos aka the Commanders, and I think tomorrow
night we'll need the New York Football Giants.
Speaker 4 (22:49):
So we got a lot.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
Of dogs too, So that's pretty good.
Speaker 4 (22:53):
I didn't see a lot of money on that game.
Speaker 6 (22:55):
I mean, yeah, yeah, we'd rather Okay, we'd rather the
Titans win, no doubt, but it's not like it doesn't
look to be as big.
Speaker 4 (23:04):
You know what, we need to call me. We need Arizona.
We need Arizona.
Speaker 6 (23:10):
We need Arizona against Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1 (23:13):
That makes sense.
Speaker 2 (23:13):
A lot of money is coming in on Tampa and
I feel like now it's become very public.
Speaker 6 (23:18):
It's a rough slate of games, like what what are
you what are you going to watch.
Speaker 4 (23:22):
At your at your red zone? Red Zone? Is that
what people do?
Speaker 2 (23:27):
Yeah, I'll probably watch I mean, I have three things
that I watch on, so I'll watch Red Zone and
then I'll see which game is kind of close, and
I'll turn that game on. I don't know, I just
kind of play around with it.
Speaker 4 (23:39):
It don't seem like you're that excited about it.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
Caired.
Speaker 2 (23:42):
I haven't been able to sleep much because of this cold,
and I was at Grandma's house, and my dog doesn't
really like to be out of environments that she's not
used to, so she woke up at like six in
the morning every morning for a week.
Speaker 1 (23:53):
I'm exhausted.
Speaker 6 (23:54):
But I got my dog. I got my pug here.
I'm trying to get him to come over to me.
He's he's actually chewing on a box of Super Book
Polo shirts that's in my office.
Speaker 4 (24:07):
Not on the shirts. The shirts are being left.
Speaker 7 (24:09):
Alone with the dogs. Touch people love dogs. But he's
chewing on the actual Mario. It's not that money. He's
chewing on the actual box. So it's okay.
Speaker 1 (24:20):
It's okay, He'll be fine.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
I actually I'm going to continue with the NFL in
a second, but I know in five minutes there is
a big football match in Europe.
Speaker 4 (24:30):
Yeah. Yeah, thoughts who asked that question? One of your listeners,
someone in.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
The chat, like at the beginning of the show. One
of your thoughts, I think it was Arsenal. Is that
who plays Yeah, Arsenal.
Speaker 6 (24:40):
Arsenal plays Chelsea. Unfortunately, it looks like Arsenal. You know,
they're owned by the Walmart people. That's how they have
all this money. So yeah, oh yeah, most of the
big soccer clubs are owned by Americans. I don't think
people realize that, but yeah, they're owned by the Walmart people.
And it looks like they've spent enough money to finally
(25:01):
win a trophy. Arsenal never wins anything, but it looks
like they are finally gonna win something this year. We
took a little bit of money on the over over
two and a half.
Speaker 4 (25:10):
Okay, don't.
Speaker 6 (25:12):
We don't have a big need on the game, but
there's a little bit of money on the game. Big game,
Chelsea versus Arsenal.
Speaker 1 (25:16):
Is that what you're gonna be watching?
Speaker 6 (25:18):
I'll watch that, and then I'll watch This is what
I do on Sundays, just so that the people your
fans know.
Speaker 4 (25:23):
I watch the soccer games, and then I watch horse racing.
Speaker 6 (25:28):
And then I do watch the NFL the last ten
minutes or so of the game because I need to
know who won. So I can do these shows. But
I'm not gonna sit there for four hours and act
like it's not terrible, because it's awful. But I always
watch the ends of the games so I can see
who wins.
Speaker 2 (25:45):
That's okay, I mean, honestly, all you really need is
the fourth quarter and seeing what more do you need?
Speaker 1 (25:50):
More?
Speaker 2 (25:50):
One hundred totally, And let's get to totals because we've
got some people in the chat asking what totals you
guys need.
Speaker 6 (25:57):
Yeah, it's a good question. We need the under in
Arizona Tampa Bay. That total right now is at forty
four and a half. We would want to see that
thing stay under that number. It looks like we'll we'll
end up needing the under in all likelihood in the
in the Night game in how are the Commanders on
Sunday Night Football?
Speaker 1 (26:17):
By the way, Well, they have their quarterback, that's your team.
Speaker 4 (26:21):
Well, they don't.
Speaker 6 (26:22):
They don't flex those games out anymore.
Speaker 4 (26:25):
Too early for the flex. I'd say that one we'll
need under.
Speaker 6 (26:30):
And there's a little bit of money on over in
the San Francisco game, which is actually a little unusual
because usually with those really really low totals, they like
to bet them under. But they've bet that one over.
Right now, we're at thirty five. That should be a
good game.
Speaker 2 (26:47):
Oh, that's gonna be fun. John Fizzell wants to know
best dog of the day.
Speaker 4 (26:52):
Best dog of the day in who's your opinion the day?
My dog of the day?
Speaker 8 (26:57):
Uh?
Speaker 4 (27:00):
Oh boy, good question, man. Let's see here.
Speaker 6 (27:05):
You know, I could see Pittsburgh beating Buffalo. You know,
I don't think buff that. I don't think Buffalo is
a good team.
Speaker 4 (27:12):
I really don't.
Speaker 6 (27:12):
I've watched I've watched an unfortunate amount of them play
this season.
Speaker 4 (27:16):
I don't like the coaching staff. I don't think that
they have a good roster.
Speaker 6 (27:20):
I think that they have a great I know they
have a great player at quarterback, but I don't think
that they're a very.
Speaker 4 (27:24):
Good team overall.
Speaker 6 (27:25):
And they're really banged up on the offensive line today,
so that could be a real problem for them against
that pass rush in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
Well, that my question.
Speaker 2 (27:33):
I asked Yanni this, and I'll ask you, since you
actually do set the lines, how much of that adjustment
from Buffalo minus four and a half to minus three
was because Aaron Rodgers is playing?
Speaker 1 (27:45):
Or was it sharp money coming in?
Speaker 6 (27:47):
I don't think it's Aaron Rodgers, I'll tell you that
right now. I don't know if there's a big difference
between Rogers and Rudolph. I think it's got more to
do with the injuries along Buffalo's offensive line. Buffalo just
not looking very good. I mean, I know that's not
the most scientific way of putting it. Buffalo does not
look good right now. Should they be laying a lot
of points on the road against Pittsburgh? I don't think so.
Speaker 4 (28:10):
I mean when was When was the last time Buffalo
won a big game on the road.
Speaker 1 (28:15):
Well, I just don't have much faith in Aaron Rodgers. Up.
Do we have a puppy?
Speaker 4 (28:21):
I'm getting it. He like he's a real ham. He
likes to be on TV.
Speaker 1 (28:27):
Oh, Mario high cuty. I wish I could lift my
dog up like that.
Speaker 4 (28:37):
How big? What does your dog weigh?
Speaker 1 (28:40):
Forts?
Speaker 4 (28:41):
Oh? Geez.
Speaker 6 (28:42):
Yeah, so he him and his sister are both like
eighteen pounds. So if I need to, I can just
pick them both up when they're being.
Speaker 1 (28:49):
Bad, which is always you like that control?
Speaker 6 (28:52):
I guess I mean it's it makes it easier because
he doesn't exactly listen to anything.
Speaker 4 (28:57):
He just does whatever he wants. I guess when you
have a face like this, you just do whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
I guess, right, that's true. They live the best life.
I want to come back in my next life as
a dog. It's nice to see John have a barking dog.
Speaker 4 (29:09):
Now, well, it's funny.
Speaker 6 (29:13):
But his sister, who you've met, who actually you wants
kidnapped from my home.
Speaker 4 (29:18):
El Ellie is a is a real barker. She's a howler.
Speaker 1 (29:21):
She's a beagle, which is why she can't go into work.
Speaker 6 (29:24):
Yeah, because if I leave my office, she howls until
I get back, so I can't bring her. I can't
bring her in him. I'll just give him to one
of my coworkers and he'll be fine.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
See.
Speaker 1 (29:34):
Marley is a beagle hound mix and she actually doesn't
bark much except when she wants to play.
Speaker 4 (29:40):
Huh wow. Oh geez. Well that's true.
Speaker 2 (29:44):
That's very well trained that I'm a dog expert's dog. Pittsburgh, Pittsburg,
Pittsburgh Steelers. I'm in baseball mode already, clearly, Uh, can
you give sharp plays with the spread? We did that, guys,
we did.
Speaker 4 (30:00):
We gave needs. I don't know.
Speaker 6 (30:02):
I mean I would say sharp plays Atlanta Atlanta as
a team.
Speaker 4 (30:10):
Atlanta got a lot of sharp money Indianapolis or not Indianapolis.
Speaker 6 (30:14):
Scratch that, Houston got some sharp money against Indianapolis. Let's
see when when Pittsburgh was plus three and a half
they played Pittsburgh, when the Commanders were plus six and
a half, they played the Commanders.
Speaker 4 (30:28):
And I think that there's I think you're gonna see.
Speaker 6 (30:31):
Some real pros Joe's action tomorrow night in the Monday
night game. I think the public is the public loves
New England, and can you blame them?
Speaker 4 (30:42):
They win every week? I don't you know.
Speaker 6 (30:44):
At some point you have to just say that the
public is right to be backing this team that always
wins and always covers. They like New England, and I've
seen some sharp guys say they like the Giants.
Speaker 2 (30:55):
Yeah, I mean, I just am not buying the New
England hype, but I wasn't in the Indianapolis hype. And
look at what's gone on with the Colts, the New
England hype. They've just had the easiest schedule, so it's
so hard to feel like they're actually legit.
Speaker 6 (31:10):
Well, I think that I will say this all kidding aside.
I think the AFC future book this season is one
of the most interesting future books I've ever seen since
I've been in the industry, because you have five teams
that all basically have the same odds. Denver and New
England because of their records because they're gonna have home field,
(31:30):
and then Kansas City, Buffalo and Baltimore because those are
the three teams in some order that we think are
the actual best teams in the AFC. So what's gonna
happen in the playoffs? I have no idea. I have
no idea what's gonna happen in the AFC playoffs. I
think over in the NFC, the Rams are pretty clearly
the best team, But in the AFC, I don't know
(31:51):
what's gonna happen. You're gonna have the better teams with
more playoff experience going on the road to play these
young teams with young quarterbacks, and I don't know what's
gonna happen. It should be pretty pretty interesting AFC playoffs.
Speaker 1 (32:03):
Who do you like the most out of the AFC?
Speaker 6 (32:06):
I think if I mean, it's hard to say this
after what we just watched on Thursday, but I do
believe if everybody was healthy that Baltimore would be the
best team. But clearly they're not healthy. There has to
be something wrong with Lamar Jackson.
Speaker 1 (32:21):
Yo or he's going blind.
Speaker 2 (32:23):
I mean, some of the throws that he missed, he
wasn't moving badly, but the problem. Remember his injury was
the ankle, but the movement wasn't the problem.
Speaker 1 (32:32):
It was his arm.
Speaker 6 (32:34):
Yeah, he missed some, he missed some easy throws. I
think I would still say probably Baltimore. But the team
that could be dangerous if they get there is Kansas City.
They know how to win, they're they're they're they're coaching staff, astrology. Well,
Kelly loves a lot of things, but including dogs. She's
(32:55):
got a new dog.
Speaker 1 (32:56):
Writer she did.
Speaker 4 (32:58):
He's cute.
Speaker 6 (32:59):
But I think Kansas City's coaching staff is not going
to make the mistakes at the end of the game
that Buffalo's coaching staff always seems to make so I
have to trust them more than I trust Buffalo.
Speaker 4 (33:11):
Denver and New England. We'll see.
Speaker 6 (33:13):
I don't I don't really like bo Nicks, to be
honest with you, I don't really Kelly. Yeah, I don't
really think well, Kelly. Kelly is very negative. You know,
Kelly's very ends. I'm more.
Speaker 8 (33:24):
You're not more you know, easy going, optimistic, just hatess.
I don't think the NFL product is very good that,
but I rem I recognize that it's very good for business,
very very good for business.
Speaker 1 (33:43):
And that's about where it ends. Your dog is great
for business too. Hello, Mario, I'll let you go be
with your dog.
Speaker 2 (33:49):
Go say hi to Elie for as Marley is curled
up in a ball underneath the desk right now.
Speaker 1 (33:55):
She is not pick up a ball. She is too
big for me.
Speaker 6 (33:58):
But this guy's Let me tell this guy's favorite thing
in the world, and I'll let you guys go. He
likes to get just truck sticked by a bigger dog,
I mean trucked, and then he'll get off his back,
run towards that dog, bite him or her on their leg,
and then run away, squealing in delight and what he
just got away with. That is his favorite thing to do.
Speaker 4 (34:19):
He loves to be chased. He loves to wrestle with
dogs that are twice three four times a center mix.
Speaker 1 (34:24):
So come to New York, bring Mario and him and
Marlee could play. He'd love it, Marley and Mario, he
would love it. John Mary, thank you for the needs.
Thank you for the totals. We appreciate you. Have a
great Sunday.
Speaker 4 (34:37):
You could.
Speaker 1 (34:39):
Covin on.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
Now we're gonna be joined by Wager talks on David Delano.
Speaker 1 (34:44):
He's gonna answer all of you. Oh, Dave is not
in here. Well that's not good. Well then it's just me.
So if Dave's not here, then I'll just go through
my props of the day. Let's get to some props and.
Speaker 2 (34:59):
You can find all these at the prop queen dot com,
where I post all of my lung lists of props
every day in the NFL. So starting with over on
receiving yards. I actually told this to Kelly earlier this week.
She texted me she said, what's some early props that
you would look at? So the Bucks have allowed the
most receiving yards per game to running backs Michael Carter,
(35:19):
and again this is just figuring out the running back
room because there's some injuries there in Arizona. But Michael Carter,
he's got over his receiving yard prop in five of
seven games this year, facing team's bottom ten against pass
catching backs, He's racked up at least fifteen receiving yards
in three of those five games. Danning backs last year,
sixty seven percent of running backs have gone over their
receiving yard prop against Tampa. If you do believe that
(35:42):
this Titans Jaguars game is going to be close, cam
Ward over his pass attempts. It's thirty three and a
half he's got over in four of six home games,
facing team's bottom ten and pass attempts allowed.
Speaker 1 (35:53):
This season, Wards had at least thirty three.
Speaker 2 (35:55):
Pass attempts in all four games, thirty eight plus pass
attempts in three of those four games.
Speaker 1 (36:00):
The Jaguars have allowed the third most past attempts per game.
Speaker 2 (36:03):
Sixty four percent of quarterbacks have gone over their past
atteenp prop against the Jags.
Speaker 1 (36:08):
Some longest reception props, you guys know, I like those.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
Tennessee's tight end Chicken Kung Wu over his longest reception
Brian Thomas over his longest reception. He leads the Jags
wide receivers and longest receptions.
Speaker 1 (36:22):
Do what else did I like today?
Speaker 2 (36:26):
Chiuwan Johnson over seventeen and a half yards for his
longest reception. The Saints tight end is getting a terrible
Dolphins d against tight ends. Johnson's gone over this in
two of three road games with Tyler Show at quarterback.
Dating back to last year, Johnson's averaging twenty three yards
per longest catch when facing a team bottom ten against
(36:46):
tight ends. The Dolphins have allowed the fifth most receiving
yards per game to tight ends this year. Sixty five
percent of tight ends have gone over their longest reception
prop when going up against this defense. Let's see if
you feel like you want some actually. In the bill
Steelers game, Josh Allen over is passing yards. I know
(37:08):
on the road the Bills haven't been great, but that's
why he's gonna have to throw the football. He's thrown
at least three hundred passing yards in both games that
he's faced this year that are bottom ten in passing
yards allowed Pittsburgh, even though their pass rush is good,
Allen's mobile enough and you get out of some gems
and Pittsburgh their secondary.
Speaker 1 (37:25):
Has been bad.
Speaker 2 (37:25):
They've allowed the most passing yards per game this year
two hundred and seventy plus passing yards in two or
three games against Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1 (37:32):
For Josh Allen in his career, eighty two.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
Percent of quarterbacks have gotten over their passing yard prop
against the Steelers. Okay, I'm still going I guess no date.
I guess s Delano's not gonna come out to that.
Gino Smith's under his completions. So it's so unconventional that
Gino Smith went over against the Chargers on his completions
in the first matchup.
Speaker 1 (37:55):
And I'll tell you why.
Speaker 2 (37:57):
This year, the Chargers have allowed the third least completions
per game to quarterbacks. There have been three quarterbacks to
go over their completion prop this year against the Chargers,
Patrick Mahomes, Daniel Jones, and Genosmith. Now that we are
getting a second game of Gino up against the Chargers,
it ain't happening again.
Speaker 1 (38:18):
He had ten and sixteen completions Gino this year on
the road and divisional games.
Speaker 2 (38:22):
Getting them a second time, Chargers d will be good
enough to limit Genosmith. So we're going under completions on Genosmith.
So some of those are some of the props that
I like the most today. Again, you can check it
out at the prop queen dot com. We definitely have
all the different props posted that are great. And make
sure to go and look at your odds Logic board.
(38:42):
You could do oddslogic dot com slash prop Queen subscribe
today and yet all of the line movements and best
odds in the marketplace for us here on Waiger Talks
Last Call, I'm the prop Queen Ariel Epstein.
Speaker 1 (38:55):
Thank you to John Murray. Thank you to Yanny the
Greek for coming on the show.
Speaker 2 (38:59):
And again, if you need the needs, John Murray said,
the super book needs Houston, Cleveland, Minnesota, Pittsburgh Raiders, both
primetime dogs for Sunday Night and Monday Night football, Arizona,
the under in Arizona, Tampa, and the under in Denver
and Washington. Those are the needs of the day. Thank
you everyone for dealing with Mike cold. I'm sorry I
(39:22):
don't normally sound like this. I'm super congested. Thank you
to the Ravens for ruining my thanksgiving. Thank you to
all of you for tuning in We will see you
guys next week. Here on wager Talk's last call,
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