Last Call LIVE: NFL Week 16 Predictions, Picks & Best Bets | Sunday Morning Line Moves 12/21/25

Looking for NFL picks and predictions for Week 16 action? We have you covered! We only have a handful of NFL Sunday betting slates left and today we have a loaded one! We discuss what the market moves have been, are ongoing and where can we take advantage to win our NFL bets!

Join Ariel Epstein, Gianni the Greek, John Murray and Marco D'Angelo as they give their best picks and critical steam moves! Drop your questions in the chat to have them answered during the live stream!

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:03):
It's last called Sunday.

Speaker 2 (00:04):
What's up everyone on the prop Queen area, Epstein. It's
week sixteen in the NFL. You guys know that week
sixteen now means that we've got some teams that literally
could care lex. We've also gotten teams that are going
to be in playoff contention and need or potentially have
the chance to win in clinch today. A lot of
great handicappers coming on the show. Y'all need the Greek
going to join us. Marco has been on an absolute

(00:26):
tear and we've got, of course John Murray joining us
from over at the West Gate in Las Vegas. Sorry,
we had some technical difficulties before, but now I'm not
making my mimosa.

Speaker 1 (00:38):
Even though I do. I didn't over sleep. I was here.
I actually have a screenshot of it. But streamyard, I guess,
was frozen. I don't know.

Speaker 2 (00:45):
I'll give you props at the end of the show.
We've got contract incentives, some that could hit today. There
are props that we need. I've got three that I
absolutely love, and Shawn Michael enough.

Speaker 1 (00:58):
I had the screen chot to prove that I was
here at ten fifty eight am and.

Speaker 2 (01:04):
My streamyard was just not worth it. Thank you, Tyrone,
thank you. I hope you all also got the chance
to see what I did yesterday because my siblings and
I did a hilarious JC Penny photo shoot. If you
guys ever did it, it's really funny from when you
were kids, and we kind of just recreated all those
go to my ex page a real epscene you'll see,
but no one cares. Let's get to some props, let's

(01:25):
get to some sides, totals, et cetera.

Speaker 1 (01:27):
And you know the man to do it.

Speaker 2 (01:28):
He just came on the prop Queen pod last week
and it was super profitable to have him on the show.

Speaker 1 (01:33):
Yanni the Greek joining us as always.

Speaker 2 (01:35):
Sorry you had to wait a little bit, but good
things come to those who wait.

Speaker 1 (01:39):
The Phillies hat is on. We are lockedloaded, ready to go, Yanni,
how was yesterday for you?

Speaker 3 (01:45):
Just like the whole week's been going four and zero
in NFL and college football nine and two this entire week.
It's that time of year with college football and NFL,
like the market's going to be changed between now and
the Super Bowls. It's totally different than it was over
the last seven, eight, nine, ten weeks and there's a
lot of opportunity on the board. Today's a perfect example.

Speaker 2 (02:06):
So yeah, yesterday and today is at least yesterday. College
football playoff teams all care today. There are certain teams
that we have to handicap.

Speaker 1 (02:15):
Do they care? Do they not care?

Speaker 2 (02:16):
What's the motivational level? How do you change your handicap
in week sixteen?

Speaker 3 (02:20):
It's noise. It's noise. You can't quantify it. Like, there's
fifty plus players that are going to affect each game
on both sides of the field, Like, how do I
know how each and every one of them feels about
playing today? You've got to be able to push that
noise out of the way and just stick to the
data and try to obviously factor in if they're going
to be motivated. But these are professional athletes, make it.

Speaker 2 (02:44):
How much are you focusing more on playing the games
that matter, the teams that matter, versus the ones that don't.

Speaker 3 (02:49):
No, I don't really look at that honestly, only because
you know those must win games. Everybody knows must win,
must win. You must not be all that good if
you're in that situation. Like we know the line shape
towards the must wins, We know about the games that
don't matter. Like all that is, We've had all week
to talk about that, like sports radio, social media content,

(03:10):
like we all the narrative has been said about which
teams care, which teams don't care. But if you look
at the betting line, that's all that matters. Like at
the end of the day, it's all noise except for
that number. Based on that number is their value on
TEAMMA or Team B. I try to keep it simple.
I'm not that smart, so I try not to go later.

Speaker 2 (03:30):
You because aside for one game in the one o'clock
Eastern timeslate, the other games all feature teams that are eliminated.
It's about the Panthers, a divisional rivalry. They're trying to
each fight for the division they play. They face each
other twice in the next three weeks. This week, not
next week's week after, they'll finish the season. How do
you see that game where we did see the Panthers

(03:51):
at home as a dog and a key number of three.

Speaker 3 (03:53):
Yeah, and Carolina got some short money and no surprise
home dog divisional play. I haven't touched that game personally.
I think the line's set right about where it should be.
I mean, on paper, Tampa Bay is much better. I
have them about twentieth power rating. I have Carolina under twenty,
like they're in the bottom five teams. But on a

(04:16):
neutral field, I would make Tampa Bay about four four
and a half points better than Carolina. But I add
in about one point eight two points for Carolina, like
I say, just edged off to two, So that brings
Tampa Bay below three, where they should be about a
two to two and a half point favor the NFL,
like the signs are so tight. If you're getting a

(04:39):
half a point a point of value on a key number,
that's as good as it's going to get in ev
So for me, it's a Carolina or pass in this spot,
I haven't bet it because I would have liked to
have three and a half. Like if I could get
three and a half, I bet it blindly. That's not
going to be available. I don't think. If anything, it'll
probably go to two and a half in some shops,
which may force me then to tease Tampa up, which

(05:01):
I don't want to. I mean, then tease Carolina, which
i'd like to do. So that's while I'm sitting back.
If I may take Carolina plus three, I haven't decided yet,
but I'm waiting to see if it gets to two
and a half because I'm three seeing the plus three
juice the minus one fifteen minus one twenty, So next
move means two and a half. That means I could
get them. It falls into my plus ev teasers and

(05:21):
I could tease them up to eight and a half.
That to me, would make the ideal bet. If I
could get Carolina at plus eight and a half on
a teaser in a meaningful game like this, That's the
bet I'm trying to make. Otherwise I just may let
it go if gun ahead. If I had to bet it,
I'd take Carolina plus three only because I don't think
it should be three. Should be about a two point
line move about. I'm a two point road favorite, and

(05:44):
you know, getting a home team at plus money, i'd
look the dogar pass.

Speaker 2 (05:49):
Speaking of line move, Bengals at the Dolphins, the line
did flip from Miami minus one and a half on
Sunday to now catching four and a half at home
the Dolphins.

Speaker 1 (05:58):
The chat asking is since an toast.

Speaker 3 (06:01):
Listen, that line's gonna keep climbing. We did see some
take back at four and a half because it's all
one side, and Cincinnati is one of the most one
sided bet teams today. In fact, not only are you
gonna hear it from anyone that comes on and says,
like when John Murray comes on later and gives his needs,
I'm pretty sure Miami will be one of them in

(06:22):
the early games because it's just so much Cincinnati action.
I don't I don't see it. I don't see the
reason why I feel comfortable laying three and a half
four with a team like Cincinnati on the road. Again,
this is a team that's won two of seven games. Like,
what confidence do I have laying chalk with them when

(06:44):
I see Miami the splits. At least I know they
play much better at home, so there is some slight
home field advantage. And I get it. Cincinnati's coming off
getting blown out, getting shut out, so they should be
motivated to you know, after an embarrassing game. But yeah,
not not a sexy game at all. Another one I
haven't bet. If I had to bet it, I would
look again to the home dog, to Miami or pass.

(07:07):
But better games on the board than that.

Speaker 1 (07:10):
Let's talk about those better games. Which games did stand
out to you?

Speaker 4 (07:12):
Yannie?

Speaker 3 (07:13):
Kansas City stood out. I talked about that all week.
That was just so ridiculous. I love placing bets where
I know I placed the good bet, and I don't
care about the outcome. Obviously I want to win, but
as long as I do my job, I know long
term what's going to happen. The numbers don't lie, And
with Kansas City, I didn't think that three was going
to be available on Sunday. It's now three and a
half at the sharpest shops. So my reasoning was on point.

(07:35):
And the reasoning is simple. Who cares that Mahomes not in?
The drop off isn't that significant based on Mahomes twenty
twenty five. Forget Mahomes Hall of Fame Mahomes twenty twenty five.
Mahomes is a different story, and the drop off isn't
that significant. But then you're gonna tell me, Okay, but
they're not motivated, they're not playing for anything. What are
you talking about? They're playing Tennessee Titans. Who wants to
lose the Tennessee. They haven't won a single home game

(07:57):
all of the year. You want to be the team
that loses the Tennessee because you're starting quarterbacks, not in like,
what are the rest of you guys worthless? I don't
get it. Like to me, that's just nonsense. This is
power rating wise, it should be double digits. We already
know because fortunately the guy's over at the Westgate have
the guts to put out an opinion on a number.
And what did they tell us? They told us that
Kansas City was a ten and a half point favorite

(08:19):
in the look aheadline. So now you're gonna shade it
seven and a half eight points because of what the
drop off the mahomes or the motivation, because I don't
know has Tennessee been playing for anything since September? I
don't think so. So for me, I like Kansas City.
That one jumps out at me. What else jumped out
at me? The Ravens. The Ravens, I mean the Jacksonville Jaguars.

(08:40):
We'll talk about your Ravens later. The Jackeville Jaguar. I know.
The Jaguars are the sexy pig. I get it, And
I worry about that, especially that Denver's going through that
key number of three. I didn't want to see that.
That scares me a little bit. But I've been saying again,
it's not a disrespect of Denver. I could only tell
you what the numbers. The number show, and when I

(09:01):
look at Denver Broncos, they've had a very easy stlengch
of schedule. Only one team has had an easier strength
of schedule than the Denver Broncos. And yet offensively there's
only ten teams that are worse efficiency wise. So it's
the defense that gets it done for the Denver Broncos.
And this week with Jacksonville, I think they're gonna have
a little bit of a problem with that total up

(09:22):
as high as forty seven. It also shows me they
expect some points because the look ahead was forty five.
So if Jacksonville's gonna be able to score, they're gonna
be able to stay in this game. I think they'll
be able to do that three and a hook. I
like it. It sounds square like getting Jacksonville three and
a half. To me, sounds square, But I guess the
books must be getting Denver money or it must be
really sharp. I haven't seen any of the accounts I

(09:43):
work with, but I was surprised to see it up
to three and a half.

Speaker 1 (09:47):
Just so everyone knows.

Speaker 2 (09:48):
For playoff contention, Jags they clinch a playoff berth with
a win and either a Houston or Indie loss. The
Broncos can clinch the division with a win and a
Chargers loss. They can also clinch one seed with a
lot of things happening. The Broncos can clinch a number
one seed and home field with a win, Chargers at
Pats and Bill's lost. So there are a lot of

(10:09):
things that have to happen, but the Broncos can potentially
clinch a number one seed at home field advantage. But
they certainly can clinch the division today.

Speaker 3 (10:16):
Albert just asked favorite play listen. I got a five
percent going today. We're going for another one, a third
in a row, so I can't give that that's obviously
the best play, but I'm going to give you a
premium prop. I just sent out the subscribers that I bet.
Don't really use premiums and the props because the lines
move too quickly. But I love this one, and it's
Keon Coleman Buffalo under one and a half receptions. I

(10:38):
betted at minus one ten, I bet at minus one
twenty and bett at minus one twenty five out five
minutes ago. There's still one twenties out there. I don't
think it got into the BOT yet, so you may
be able to get it. But under one and a
half receptions.

Speaker 1 (10:50):
Can Cleveland third least receiving yards per game allowed to
wide receivers.

Speaker 3 (10:54):
So that makes all the problem today.

Speaker 1 (10:56):
That makes a ton of sense.

Speaker 2 (10:57):
You said you were going to bring up my Ravens
in the pass is asking about it as well. The
Ravens have not looked great, but they looked great last
week against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Speaker 1 (11:06):
How do you trust them?

Speaker 3 (11:08):
I have to look at the numbers and this is
what it tells me. That Baltimore has a top ten
offense and a top ten defense and a tougher strength
of schedule than the New England Patriots. So if they're
only negative for Baltimore as the record, and you have
to give them a slight pass there because of the
quarterback situation, I mean, that's the bottom line for a

(11:30):
New England. Again, they're legit. It's just that statistically they're
not impressive. Other than may be in top five and
passing success rate offensively and defensively, this team isn't barely
in top fifteen, but they're winning football games. Why Because
they're winning the close games. That's unsustainable. I've watched football

(11:50):
long enough to know those teams tend to get knocked
out of the playoffs if they don't get you know,
if they make it there, and they usually do, because
you can't keep winning like that. There's just so much
randomness to one score games. And on paper Baltimore is
the better team. Are they going to go out there
and win the football game? You know they could play

(12:11):
four hours later it would be a different result. So
I don't know that, but I do know on paper
Baltimore's better offensively, better defensively, has home field advantage, had
the better strength of schedule. Everything points that Baltimore should
be higher than a three point favorite. I make them
about four and a half in this spot, believe it
or not, so I think there's value on Baltimore. It

(12:33):
worries me a little bit that I'm starting to see
risk pile up on Baltimore public like in the side
I do as well, but the market's reflecting it. It's
up to three and a half at the shops I
respect most, and that's what I want to see when
I get down at early number. I want to see
me getting closing line value, and if you got down
early on Baltimore, you're getting that. So I like what

(12:55):
I'm seeing there if you like the Baltimore sign. But
I can't fold anyone for taking New England. New England's
been getting the job done, winning football games, but they're
not raking you much money ats because they're not winning
by margin. And like I said, the stats just aren't
that impressive. They're at eleven and three football team that's
one game over five hundred ats. They haven't surprised the market,

(13:17):
they haven't surprised the odds makers meeting. They're just winning
with the record. You see it in college football all
the time, these ten to one teams that are ranking
top twenty five that would be forty point dogs to
Ohio State and they get exposed when the playoffs come around.

Speaker 1 (13:31):
You've been crushing these primetime games, Yanni.

Speaker 2 (13:33):
It's all over bet on it at wager talk that
you have had a great season betting.

Speaker 1 (13:37):
The primetime games.

Speaker 2 (13:38):
Last week you said it was too many points Philip
Rivers coming back facing Seattle, and you were right by
a lot.

Speaker 1 (13:45):
I mean, that was an easy cover for Indianapolis.

Speaker 2 (13:48):
Now the book says, okay, we see you, Philip Rivers
Monday Night football. The Niners are only laying six and
a half on the road at those colts. Now is
it too much or is it now?

Speaker 3 (14:00):
You know?

Speaker 1 (14:00):
What are your thoughts on the claps?

Speaker 4 (14:01):
Now?

Speaker 3 (14:01):
You missed the boat like you had a really good
spot to make money. I see it in MMA all
the time in the UFC, where a fighter's undervalued and
we bet him for three or four spots, and then
he gets a name recognition, hype fight of the night,
and all of a sudden everyone wants to bet them.
But unfortunately the market's already caught up and corrected itself.

(14:22):
Perfect example, Morob. You had two years to make money
with Morob. The last year and a half you've overpaid.
You may have made some money, but you've overpaid. You
haven't gotten any kind of discount. That's the problem I
have with Indianapolis on Monday Night that you already had
your opportunity where they were misspriced based on the drop
off with the quarterback situation. That's no longer the case.

(14:45):
But you have a San Francisco team that's coming off
four straight wins, four st right covers where they were
heavily favored in most of those games. I think because
of that, you're getting a few more higher number than
you would otherwise, You're still getting some line value. On Indianapolis,
the problem is they played so hard last week and

(15:08):
came up short with a team that this is where
the motivation matters. Like you came up a big game,
you showed up, you were at home. You didn't get
the w though, that's the problem. Now you got to
get up again and there's really nothing to play. I mean,
you know, obviously something to play for, but like you
got Rivers back there. Then in the head, I take

(15:30):
the Colts because I do think the line's a little
bit high. I haven't bet this game. Uh yeah, we'll
see what happens ween now on tomorrow. Better games today
than that. But if I had to bet it right now,
I probably take the points with the Colts, just hoping
the back door stays open.

Speaker 1 (15:46):
Johanni the Greek, I'm sorry I came out a little
late today. I had some technical difficulties apparently, but you
at least give people another opportunity to see you at
new in Eastern time when you're going on on the
steam room. You also said you have a five percent yep.

Speaker 3 (16:01):
Yeah, and forty minutes will be in there. In fact,
I've been holding off ordering my coffee because to do this. Yeah,
I've been so.

Speaker 1 (16:08):
Can you do the energy drink first, then the coffee.

Speaker 3 (16:11):
No, I don't on the energy. I go I down
thirty uh grams of protein roller fast and then I
start my coffee every day, and today I just had
so much going on I haven't even been able to
do that, so I'm not gonna make it. I like
making my own, so I'm going to order it actually,
and uh yeah, I have like twenty minutes in between.
Then the steam room starts at nine. We're gonna go

(16:33):
into the kickoff, go through these NFL games. I love
this board. Today we're staying selective, but I like what's
already in there. I'm gonna keep firing chriss.

Speaker 1 (16:42):
He loves the board today. It's an ugly one, like
a lot of teams that we think don't care.

Speaker 3 (16:45):
But Yanny, I'm gonna stick around. Hopefully John Murray comes
on next and share some information. That's gold. That's gold.

Speaker 1 (16:51):
It is the step over at the super books called Yanni,
thank you so much. We'll see at the steam room
at noon.

Speaker 3 (16:56):
Thanks for having me Ariel.

Speaker 2 (16:58):
As Yanni said, coming on the show now is our
very good friend who joins the show every Saturday. And
it's so nice to have waited for four minutes of
a little bit of delay. John Murray joining us from
the super Book at the Westgate.

Speaker 4 (17:11):
Hi, jam every Sunday. I joined the show Saturday, you said, Saturday.
I did, Oh my god, a lot of sorts this week.
What's wrong with you?

Speaker 1 (17:21):
I'm at my parents' house. The days don't exist. I was.
I felt like yesterday was a Thursday for some reason.
Today's Sunday. He's on every Sunday. I'm on every Sunday.
I am certainly not on on Saturdays. Kelly's tried and
I said, no, ma'am. I take at least one day
off a week.

Speaker 4 (17:37):
Good for you. Who does the show Saturday? Is that Kelly?
Your friend's Kelly Kelly. She's a hard worker. I don't
think she has any days off.

Speaker 1 (17:44):
No days off for Kelly in Vegas, the world. No,
she's at your dad's and she never stopped she took
Christmas offish.

Speaker 4 (17:52):
She never stopped sweating these She never stopped sweating these
games either. If you notice that.

Speaker 1 (17:58):
She went to bed last night, though she went early
to bed. She said, she said, well.

Speaker 4 (18:02):
That college game last night was pretty good. That was
pretty good stuff. You know, you wouldn't want to miss
a good competitor keeper. It's real competitive. I didn't even
know that JMU had covered until this morning. When I
got into work, I was like, oh, great.

Speaker 2 (18:16):
Watching the NFL game. I had a pretty good game
that the NFL scriptwriters did really good job. I'm sure
he saw.

Speaker 4 (18:22):
That I saw. I did see the final score. I
did see the.

Speaker 1 (18:26):
Fun Chris Thurston, our good friend CT bet Chris theory
that the Ravens are going to win today because the
the NFL wants to make sure it's Ravens Steelers to
close out the last game of the season for the division.
And then of course loser goes home. So I always
need one.

Speaker 4 (18:47):
They need one Sunday Night game for like Week eighteen.
You know, all the games basically suck, but they have
to have one good game for Sunday Night football. There's
always one game that they put into that slot that
decides a division.

Speaker 2 (19:00):
And yeah, it's not even as if the team makes
the wild card. If they lose, the loser goes home.

Speaker 3 (19:06):
I think.

Speaker 4 (19:07):
I think the Chargers play the Broncos Week eighteen as well,
and that could be.

Speaker 2 (19:12):
That could also result in the team making the playoffs,
you know, like the loser could still make the playoffs,
not the loser.

Speaker 4 (19:18):
Would still be a wild card. That's a good.

Speaker 1 (19:20):
Point, right, So it could be riven Steelers to end
the year.

Speaker 2 (19:23):
But yesterday I felt very similar to that with the
Bears and the Packers. By the way, after that game,
now that the Bears are in the lead for that division,
how did the Westgate super Book look at that division
between the Packers and the Bears.

Speaker 4 (19:37):
Well, I'll have to look at that because I don't know.
I didn't watch one second of the Packers Bears game,
but I can look at up numbers. We have the
divisions closed right now, but I know the Bears a
huge win for them. Terrible for us obviously, of course
it's NFL not what we wanted at all. But I
understand that they scored it. They kicked the field goal

(19:59):
and they got an on side's kick. Is that correct?
Because the kid, the kid with a stupid helmet fumbled it. Great,
and then they won. They got a fourth down touchdown?
Is that what happened.

Speaker 2 (20:09):
It was two insane catches and I'll get killed William
some credit, excellent, and.

Speaker 4 (20:14):
Then they won in overtime. I guess Chicago. Now, how
long is Jordan Love out for?

Speaker 1 (20:19):
Well, he's got a concussion, so those.

Speaker 4 (20:22):
Guys are those guys play the whole season with a concussion.
That doesn't matter.

Speaker 2 (20:26):
It really just depends on how bad the concussion is
and how badly they want to win next week, I guess.
And the Ravens aren't going to care if they win
tonight because that game doesn't matter next week.

Speaker 4 (20:36):
Yeah, I've heard that. I've heard that about Uh, I've
heard that about the Steelers too, where basically the games
that they're playing now don't really matter.

Speaker 1 (20:43):
Well, I think they would like to have one more
game up on the Ravens because if the Ravens did
lose today, which the Steelers won't know that going in,
but the Ravens lost tonight and the Steelers won, they'll
be two games up on the Ravens.

Speaker 4 (20:57):
Gotcha? Okay that makes sense? Yeah? Well, I mean the
way people are betting that game here at the Westgate.
At least I'm talking about Steelers and Lions. Nobody thinks
that the Steelers care, apparently because all the money's on
Detroit were I think, I think Pittsburgh will be our
biggest need of the whole week in the NFL. Well,
actually green Bay was a big need, but uh anymore Steelers. Uh, yes, Steelers,

(21:22):
really big need. We Uh everyone's betting Detroit. Oh wait,
I'm sorry I missed the big need of every week
that never wins. The Raiders. Excuse me. The Raiders are
our biggest need. They are plus fourteen at Houston. Should
be a good game. Uh the but the Steelers, it
looks like the second biggest need is going to be
Pittsburgh in Detroit. And then in the morning, we really

(21:46):
need uh for whatever reason, we could really use the
New York Giants. So a lot of people bet on.

Speaker 1 (21:53):
Playing out in the Giants favor a little bit.

Speaker 4 (21:56):
We got you know that court. I like that quarterback
in Minnesota nine JJ McCarthy. Yeah, they're bet in Minnesota.
We need the Giants in that one. You're you're hometown.

Speaker 1 (22:07):
Giants, Yes, the hometown Giants.

Speaker 4 (22:10):
And then I really think, I think tomorrow night, it's
not really it's not like that yet, but I know
the way that these things are bet. I know how
that it goes throughout the weekend. If I see a
five and a half point road favored on Monday Night Football,
which is what we have tomorrow, I know that by
the time that game kicks off, we're going to be
big Indianapolis fans. I'd be very surprised if we're not

(22:34):
big Indianapolis fans.

Speaker 2 (22:35):
Tomorrow was a big line adjustment too, because the folks
were catching double digits last week.

Speaker 1 (22:40):
You guys cut that in half this week.

Speaker 4 (22:42):
Yeah, well, yeah, I mean I think last week. You know,
it's so easy to say it now, but in retrospect,
what a great bet Indianapolis was last week. And I
didn't say that on the show last Sunday, but looking
back on it, they're at home, they're playing the Colts
with a quarterback that's older than me, it hasn't played
in five years, and they've got the Rams looming four

(23:03):
days later Thursday Night Football and the biggest game of
the season. What a great spot for the Colts. So
great job by anybody that took the fourteen with Indianapolis
last week. That's the kind of spot that I think
savvier people are looking for and finding.

Speaker 1 (23:18):
I was talking to doctor David Chow, who's very good
friends with Philip Rivers. He came on the Prep Queen
pod this week and doctor Chow said that Philip Rivers
said he wasn't even sore after the game.

Speaker 4 (23:28):
That's pretty impressive. I mean, I know everybody made their jokes,
but I mean Philip Rivers is kind of cool. I mean, basically,
he's like he's retired to this farm and he's raising
like a stable future quarterbacks and he is still capable
of being an NFL quarterback. And that's pretty amazing, honestly. Yeah, yeah,
I don't know what you can say about Philip Rivers

(23:49):
other than full marks. Very very impressive.

Speaker 1 (23:53):
John Oh, I guess we'll ask the soccer question and
we'll go back to football. What do you like in
soccer today?

Speaker 4 (23:58):
It's a great question, Thank you sir. There's only one
game today in the EPL, Aston Villa and man United.
Villa is having a really good season, so technically I
should root against them because Liverpool could be going, you know,
battling with them for a position. But they're playing Manchester United.
I can't root for Manchester United. I just cannot do that.
I cannot do that, So I'm rooting for aston Villa,

(24:19):
even though it's probably not in my best interest. That's
being that's being a sports fan, you know how That
is area. Although they're they're like, could you ever root
for the Red Sox. No, yeah, I'm not going to.

Speaker 1 (24:32):
There are actually some like I saw some fans yesterday,
Lions fans that were rooting for the Bears.

Speaker 4 (24:40):
So that was individuum.

Speaker 2 (24:42):
Yeah, And I think when you know, obviously it would
be hard for me to root for the Red Socks.
But if they're having a bad year and the Yankees
have a chance to win the division and the Red
Sox have to be the Toronto Blue Jays for the
Yankees to win the division, I might have to do it.

Speaker 4 (24:55):
Well. If like if man United winning a game in
May would give Liverpool the Premiere League, obviously I would
root from Manchester United.

Speaker 2 (25:03):
So you got the selfish thing which is today is
actually pretty interesting in the NFL. Selfish is Week sixteen,
seventeen eighteen, when contract incentives come to a head. How
much do you consider the contract incentives when booking these numbers.

Speaker 4 (25:19):
I think that I think that Week eighteen there are
a lot of discussions about that from a that's a
good question by that person. So are our we got
we got a team of guys that handle the props
and they're they're really diving into those props. They do
a really good job too. We've done a good job
on NFL player props this season, So good job by
the guys, and definitely the last week of the year,

(25:39):
they're looking at that stuff. Like I feel like there
was a game a couple of years ago where Derek
Henry needed one more touchdown? Do you remember that he needed? Yeah?
And he and I remember because I don't ever really
give compliments to their faces, I just yell at them
and uh they is everybody, So everybody knew like this

(26:05):
guy just needed to score a touchdown to get some
pretty big bonus things like a million dollars or something,
And no matter what we made the price, they just
kept betting the yes, And of course he got it
and we lost, and I was mad at the guys,
but they do a good job and they definitely look
at that stuff. You know that stuff this week? Yeah?
It is it? Really okay? I thought that was more

(26:26):
of a Week eight team.

Speaker 2 (26:27):
You already bet mine. I'm gonna give him at the
end of the show. I already bet mine though, so
I'm okay. But telling you what they are?

Speaker 4 (26:34):
Did you text him to me? What are you doing?

Speaker 1 (26:35):
No, I'm not gonna tell you what they are. I'm
just gonna tell you that I cared and I bet
him that way.

Speaker 4 (26:39):
Oh thanks for the heads up. So do me do
me a favor. After they all win, just tell me
about how you won.

Speaker 1 (26:44):
Okay, I will, That's exactly what I'll do. And if
they don't, I'm not going to tell you, and then
I'll bet them again next week.

Speaker 2 (26:50):
What about motivation though, jam Like, not even just individual motivation,
just but how much does that factor into the number
When you guys are looking at these games, especially.

Speaker 1 (26:59):
A team like the Chiefs who've been out of it
for the first time now in like eight years.

Speaker 4 (27:03):
It's a It's a great example. I've talked about it
this week on a few shows. Who knows what they're
gonna do? I mean, when was the last time that
Kansas City was playing an NFL game that didn't matter
unless they were just resting for the playoffs. They've done
that before, but this is an actual meaningless game. Our
look aheadline on this game was more like ten and
a half ten. Now we're at Chiefs minus three minus one.

Speaker 3 (27:27):
Sixteen.

Speaker 4 (27:28):
Saw Sharp players on Tennessee plus four early in the week,
but other groups rejected that play. As we got closer
to the weekend, really sharp account laid Kansas City minus
won fifty. There's money both ways, sharp money both ways.
I don't know. To me. To me, there's gotta be
somewhere else to put your money. You know. I heard
Yanni in the previous segment talking about that. With the

(27:49):
Indianapolis game, It's like, like, who really knows how motivated
Kansas City is gonna be. Tennessee is a team that
has nothing to play for that's probably better off.

Speaker 1 (27:59):
Wa Yes, they really want to get a home win.
They still haven't gotten a.

Speaker 3 (28:03):
Home win yet.

Speaker 4 (28:04):
Okay, I mean that's fair, But I mean they'd be
better off if we live in a world where we
assume that cam Ward is their future quarterback, which I
figure he is. They're better off losing. Getting a higher
draft pick and then trading it down for a bounty
of draft picks. Is some team that needs a QB
SO and I don't know what, I don't know. It

(28:24):
just seems to me like you got two teams you
don't know their motivation level. Isn't there somewhere else you
could look on this board today? Maybe you got Tampa
Bay Carolina, a game that has enormous division implications, and
you know you're getting a full effort out of both teams.
That's probably more of what I would do.

Speaker 2 (28:43):
Speaking of the Bucks have not covered a spread in
like the last six weeks. How do you see that
game with the Panthers actually catching that key number of three.

Speaker 4 (28:54):
It's an interesting game. You know, Carolina really blew it
last week. You know they had to buy the previous week.
They're at home against I'm sorry they were at in
New Orleans, but they were off of bye week and
they had a chance to take a stranglehold on that
division and they blew it. Now they come back home,
they're a small dog against Tampa. Did see some really
sharp accounts play Tampa at minus two and a half,

(29:17):
but a lot of money on Carolina at plus three.
So looks like a game we just don't want to
see Tampa Bay win by three. That's kind of where
we're at in that game.

Speaker 1 (29:27):
That would be QB talking bad about Baker.

Speaker 4 (29:30):
Kelly's QB is Baker Mayfield. Kelly's kind of you thought
your friend Kelly. She's kind of all over the place. No,
like you know, she loves somebody one week and she
hates them the next week.

Speaker 1 (29:40):
That's like an honor for her to love us every week.

Speaker 4 (29:43):
Oh yeah, she's a very emotional, very emotional young lady.
I think. Yes.

Speaker 2 (29:48):
Oh my gosh, the chat saying Sean Michael stops spreading rumors,
I'm not pregnant.

Speaker 1 (29:52):
It's impossible. Actually I'm not pregnant. Sorry, So that was weird.
That was really weird, like a pregnant woman.

Speaker 4 (30:00):
Well, I think you're glowing because you're so excited about
another rivety week of NFL.

Speaker 1 (30:05):
Have a ring light in front of me.

Speaker 4 (30:06):
Well, don't you think I'll tell you what. I'm glowing
a little bit because the the first the charity invitational
part of the College Football Playoff is over. Like the
charity charity invite stuff is over. Now we can actually
play the real games.

Speaker 1 (30:22):
And that's early stand out.

Speaker 4 (30:24):
That's not really I mean, they there was a little
bit of money on Alabama Alabama plays Indiana and the
Rose Bowl, a little bit of money on that. But
I think it's it's just good to get through that
first week. It was just ridiculous nonsense. It was an
embarrassment in that right.

Speaker 1 (30:43):
Like the Miami game really should have been the night
game last night.

Speaker 4 (30:46):
Yeah, well, it's just it's just bad when two of
the games are pretty much over in the first quarter. Yeah,
you know, it's like like you just watch a few
drives and you're like, oh my god, this isn't even
so Yeah, I'm glad that that. I mean, I'm glad
we we did our part where we didn't hurt anybody's
feelings and we got the teams in. No one's feelings
were hurt, and now we can actually move on to

(31:06):
the real games. That makes me happy. That makes me glow.

Speaker 1 (31:10):
And I know that here on Wager Talk they'll have
all that talk. I'm bent on it. John. Any totals
that stood out that you guys need, let me see, because.

Speaker 4 (31:18):
Your friend Kelly told me that usually when I give
you the totals, they do better than the sides.

Speaker 1 (31:23):
Yeah, that's what Kelly said.

Speaker 4 (31:26):
It looks like we'll need the under in your game tonight,
your game Baltimore hosting New England. That line's actually gone
up to three and a half that's one that I
should have run through as a sharper play. Is Baltimore
Baltimore going from two and a half to three and
a half. That's a very significant line moment, that is so,
I'd say Baltimore for sure, and we will need the
under in that game. Although that's pretty common. I think

(31:48):
the people out there should understand that very normal for
us to need the under in a primetime game. I
don't know how waaningful that is. Well, while the under
in the Pittsburgh game as well, Pittsburgh Detroit afternoon game.
Detroit seemingly when they're at home, their offense races up
and down the field. Yeah, see what they look like today,
we'll need under fifty two. Fifty two is a big

(32:10):
number for a Steeler baking number is not. I mean,
that's a lot of points for the Steelers, but they're
not exactly an explosive offense. And no TJ. Watt good point, Yeah, yeah,
good point. So yeah, I think there's an expectation there
that the Lions will be able to run up and
down the field. But can Pittsburgh score back? I don't know.

Speaker 1 (32:28):
Well, I can't. This whole the chat is killing me today.
I really need to shut it off because I don't
like these rumors.

Speaker 4 (32:34):
How what what were they saying about you now? Is
it something about an island?

Speaker 2 (32:38):
No, not yet actually, but instead of Epstein's pregnant, Ravens
will finally beat Tomlin in the regular season when it matters.

Speaker 4 (32:45):
Why are these guys asking if you're pregnant? What's the
matter with your fans?

Speaker 1 (32:48):
I don't know. Usually men don't want you to be pregnant,
like then you're still available, which I'm not available to
any of you in the chat. Sorry, because you're telling
me I'm pregnant and it's fake news. Fake news. How
coming in on Chargers Cowboys.

Speaker 4 (33:02):
Yeah, I think that's very actually a pretty interesting game.
And early on in the week there was some real
sharp money on Dallas that moved us up to about
two and a half money line plus one twenty. And
then we saw late in the week, I'm talking like
yesterday Saturday, some really sharp accounts taking the Chargers taking
plus one twenty on the money line, taking two and

(33:23):
a half. We need Dallas right now, so we took
some bigger bets on the Chargers yesterday. So we'll be
we'll be written for the Cowboys. That game will be
on sound here at the Westgates Super Book in the morning.
Good one, pretty good one. I kind of like watching
the Chargers play because I love Jim Harbaugh. I do
love I love coach Jim Harbaugh. I think he's funny.

(33:43):
I think the whole bit with him is funny. I
like it all. I enjoy all of them.

Speaker 2 (33:46):
The Ravens actually this week released a video of their
head coach John Harbaugh. Apparently he's the first person at
the gym five am every morning.

Speaker 4 (33:56):
And how old are the harba is now? Man, they
gotta be like mid sixty.

Speaker 1 (34:00):
Oh maybe I just so older than that because because
my mom has a crush sixty three for John. Okay,
Jim sixty one.

Speaker 4 (34:09):
That's a little younger than I thought, because you're I mean,
you're a little too young for this.

Speaker 1 (34:12):
But I remember the crush on John no offense to
my dad.

Speaker 4 (34:15):
I remember Jim Harbaugh as the Bears quarterback when I
was a kid going to the sideline and Mike Ditka
just eviscerating him on the sideline. And then I can
remember him being the Colts quarterback. He got them to
an AFC Championship game. They lost to Pittsburgh in the
NFC Championship Game. I mean this is like thirty some
years ago.

Speaker 1 (34:36):
Wow, yeah, no, that's true. But thirty something years ago
they were my age. So we are people too in
our thirties.

Speaker 2 (34:43):
John Murray, Oh okay, yeah, thirty are also people established
all the time.

Speaker 1 (34:50):
John Murray overhead the Westgates Superbook, Rep Ball Officionado, thank
you for coming on the show today. Hope love the
NFL get murdered by reps again.

Speaker 4 (35:00):
I can't wait till we'll talk to you about week
seventeen next week. Ariel.

Speaker 2 (35:03):
Oh yeah, at least we're just one week closer to
baseball one weekless.

Speaker 1 (35:07):
Correct, Thanks John coming on now last, certainly not least.

Speaker 2 (35:11):
He's been on an absolute tear over at Wager talks
about on it. That's why we've had him on with
Yanni the Greek week giving Helen to day off.

Speaker 1 (35:19):
It is Marco D'Angelo. Marco in Vegas is where you
could find him. Marco happy Sunday.

Speaker 4 (35:26):
Hey, Ariel, how you doing today?

Speaker 1 (35:28):
I'm good?

Speaker 2 (35:28):
And now it's kind of crazy because I was hoping
your Steelers would lose no offense. John Murray is saying
that they really need Pittsburgh today? How confident are you
in those Steelers?

Speaker 5 (35:38):
Uh? Well, I heard the segment with John and what
John was talking about where the Steelers really don't need
this game. Actually, I planned that seed in his head
on Friday. And what I meant when I said that
was when Pittsburgh won on Monday Night against Miami. That
win on Monday Night guaranteed no matter what Pittsburgh does

(35:58):
this week or next week, the final game still will
be for the division. Now, obviously, if Pittsburgh wins a
game before the final game against Baltimore and Baltimore you know,
stubs their toe along the way, then they have the
two game cushion and that's gonna ruin that final game
on that Sunday. I think this is a horrible spot

(36:20):
for the Steelers today, Ariel, because they're playing off the
short week, and let's be honest, it was a.

Speaker 2 (36:27):
Touch stretch too, and they had if he's Buffalo Baltimore
then the short week.

Speaker 1 (36:31):
It's rough.

Speaker 5 (36:32):
Absolutely and that game last week. Throw the game out
against Miami. Okay, that was a warm weather team that
wanted no part of playing in the frigid cold Tua.
I don't know what he was doing, and he played
so bad that it finally got him benched. You know,
they sat him down for the rest of the season now,
and for Pittsburgh to go into Detroit, that defense is

(36:56):
gonna get exposed. And that's why John seen everybody bet
the over, and you brought up the good point. You know, well,
you need two teams to hit an over. Okay, well
no you don't not if you play a team total
I'm taking I'm taking Detroit team total over twenty eight
and a half because, yeah, this is a Pittsburgh spot. J.

(37:19):
Javid Watson T J. Watts out, there's another injury on
the defense. This is the one for Pittsburgh. If there
is a throwaway game on the short week, you're gonna
do it against Detroit. You're playing them indoors, perfect weather conditions,
that offense for Detroit, and you know Dan Campbell never
takes his foot off the gas. That's not his m

(37:41):
so he'll keep pushing up the field. Pittsburgh is gonna
look for the final two games they get to win
against Cleveland, and if Baltimore loses one of the two
games before then, then it's over. But if they're gonna
need a game. They're gonna go all out next week
against Cleveland before the Baltimore game. This is the throwaway
game for Pittsburgh, and that's why John said what he

(38:04):
said there. That was me that planted a dead season.

Speaker 2 (38:06):
I guess my thought is as someone like a Mike Tomlin,
who is a great head coach. Despite what Steelers fans
are over, I get it. Ravens fans are over John
Harball too, because when it's so mediocre for so long,
it's time for a change. However, when the Steelers know
potentially that they could potentially rest Week eighteen and go
into the playoffs a little more rested if there's a

(38:29):
chance the Ravens lose tonight, then the Steelers are in
better position and going into the playoffs as opposed to
mailing this in which they're not going to know the
results of the Ravens game by the time their game
is over.

Speaker 5 (38:42):
Absolutely correct. So the situation, you know, meaning they could
go all out today and Baltimore wins tonight and it
still you know.

Speaker 4 (38:53):
It doesn't matter.

Speaker 1 (38:54):
I get it.

Speaker 3 (38:54):
I totally.

Speaker 5 (38:55):
Where I think where I think it's at is they're
going to go all out against you know, and who
do you have a better chance of beating pittsil does
not match up well the defense. Go back two weeks ago,
you should have won the Baltimore game. We talked about
that last week. Baltimore had over four hundred yards of offense,
and that was back to back weeks that Buffalo and

(39:16):
Baltimore rushed for over two hundred yards against the Steeler defense.
That's not going to change this week. And now you've
got to worry about not only a good running game
with the Lions with Montgomery and Gibbs, you got to
worry about a passing attack as well. It's a bad matchup.
Short week. I think you look to the final two

(39:37):
games for the Steelers for them to get the job done.
That's where you go all out, not on the short
week going into Detroit.

Speaker 2 (39:46):
The Ravens played a night of course to get the
New England Patriots. We've seen this line moving slightly in
the Ravens favor throughout the week.

Speaker 1 (39:53):
I heard on bet on It. Most of you guys
seem to be liking my Ravens. It is just so
hard for me to not only give them my money
for a ticket. It's my I don't mean betting ticket.
I mean a seat. I don't even want to pay
to watch them play. I don't even want to put
my money on them. Convinced me otherwise.

Speaker 5 (40:12):
I like Baltimore tonight. I think this is a bad
spot for New England if you just look at the
numbers for the season. Obviously, New England has played tremendous
but this is a young ball club and we talk
about so often lose the same game twice. I want
to see New England show me that they can pick

(40:35):
themselves up off the mat after blowing a twenty one
to nothing lead that would have clinched the division, probably
gave them, you know, a home field advantage throughout the
playoffs in the AFC, and they lose that game after
blowing that lead. They got to show me that they
can go on the road and come back.

Speaker 4 (40:55):
Now.

Speaker 5 (40:55):
I know it's been a you know, an off year
for Lamar Jackson, but we've seen glimpses of it. We
saw some of it in the Pittsburgh game. I started
to run the football a little more, made some passes
last week, probably the most complete game by Baltimore last
week against Cincinnati. Granted that was against the Cincinnati defense,

(41:15):
but I loved Baltimore last week. I like them here
again New England if you just look at the numbers,
though they've been obviously the more consistent team all year.
Drake May's had a great year. I mean, going into
last week's game, there was talk of Drake May for
MVP and rightfully show for what he's done. For a

(41:36):
second year quarterback, to do what he's done with this team,
it's impressive. But now that you lost and you had
your statement game, sometimes that creeps in the back of
your mind.

Speaker 2 (41:49):
You were cracking me up because you said, I was
sitting there eating no wing's watching this game. I had
to dust my fingers off because I thought the Patriots
were going to win their statement game against the Bills,
and then they ended up losing a twenty one point lead.

Speaker 1 (42:04):
How when you thought that way in that moment, even when.

Speaker 2 (42:09):
The Patriots didn't necessarily lose yet just blowing the lead,
you were ready to fade them the next week, no
matter who they played.

Speaker 5 (42:17):
Yeah, it was a situation that you know, I started out,
I was, you know, if they win the game, I'm
going against them even bigger. Okay, but when they lost
the game, I'm saying, oh, now I can't do it.
Then I started thinking, no, this is the you know,
the poster child for lose the same game twice. So
I said, yeah, I'll still go against them. And then
when it sets up that it's a Sunday night game

(42:37):
against Baltimore and the season's on the line for Baltimore
because you know, Baltimore can't afford to lose. Now, granted,
if Pittsburgh loses earlier in the afternoon, it creates a
situation for Baltimore where they can still afford to lose
because it's still a one game difference. But league they

(43:00):
want to get that get you know, get that game
up if they can get it. So I think Baltimore,
you're gonna have all, you know, all hands on deck.
It's a Sunday night game. Hopefully that crowd is rocking
and rolling there for Sunday night and they get the
job done. But we need Lamar Jackson to have a
clean game. We can't have one of those you know,

(43:21):
three four turnover type games that we've seen a couple
of times this year that there has just been you know,
I know, frustrating to you and to the rest of
the Raven fans.

Speaker 1 (43:31):
Marc.

Speaker 2 (43:31):
We've talked a lot about games that matter today because
there are a bunch of games with playoff implications.

Speaker 1 (43:36):
Then there are the games that don't matter at all
to either team. Have you seen anything in those games
that is willing to be like that's actionable?

Speaker 4 (43:45):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (43:46):
What I generally do, Ariel, when you've got these if
you've got two teams that they're out of it, it
means nothing. I generally don't get excited too often about
playing those games unless there's uh something else with the situation,
and I'll bring one of them up here later. But
what I do like to look at in these games

(44:06):
is if we don't have weather conditions, generally speaking, the
last couple weeks of the season, when you have two
teams that it doesn't matter where you're going to see.
The lack of effort comes on the defensive side of
the football, because it takes more effort to play defense
than it does to play offense. I'll look to take
an over one of those examples last week, and it
was a client play was I gave the Washington Giant

(44:30):
game over the total. Everybody was betting that game under
the total, and I went over the total. Because these
were two teams had nothing to play for and they
went up and down the field. So that's where I'll
look at. But don't just because the game's on the
schedule doesn't mean you got to play every game on
the schedule. And I always tell people all the time,
you know what, if we take you off of a loser,

(44:52):
I did you a better service than giving you a winner,
Because if I give you a winner, that's one unit.
If I save you a loser, it's one point one unit,
you know, in your pocket differential. And that's what people
you know, fell to. You know, remember, like today, you
want to talk about situational plays, but I can't play
this team because they've been in so many situations this

(45:13):
year where they look live. But I can't play them.
That's the Cleveland Browns. Buffalo is in a major letdown
spot after the New England game last week. They got
to figure in their minds they just got to go
into Cleveland, show up and win, you know, and they're
gonna win the game, and you're laying over ten points.
This line has gone to ten and a half now.

(45:35):
But Buffalo needs to win. We know that every team
that needs to win. Vegas knows they need to win.
They know that, the public knows they need to win.
You're paying a premium for them, so you're getting value
with the Cleveland side. But I just can't bet the Browns.
So what do I do? I don't play the game.

Speaker 4 (45:56):
I move on.

Speaker 5 (45:56):
I just leave that game alone.

Speaker 2 (45:59):
I love your sandwich boughts this entire season. They've been
absolute money. For anyone that hasn't seen Marco'sdelli bet on
it segments with it. I've been cashing a ton, whether
it's that teasing those sides, it's been really great. One
of those this week that you brought up a team
that's very, very scary to bet on, the Arizona Cardinals.

Speaker 5 (46:20):
But the atlant that's the one I was going to
bring up later to you guys. You want to talk
about that. That is the monster of all sandwiches. Okay, Now,
these are two teams that have nothing to play for, obviously,
so a lot of money is going to come in
on the over on this game, and I can't disagree
with that. But when you talk about a sandwich spot,
you look at this Atlanta team. They're out of the playoffs.

(46:44):
Teams like that, the times they're going to show up
is going to be if they're playing a division game
and they can play spoiler, or if it's a TV
game and it's a primetime game, you know, a Thursday night,
a Sunday night, a Monday night game. Want to show
up for that? Well, look what Atlanta did last week.
They played on Thursday night, so not only was it

(47:06):
a primetime TV game, they played Tampa Bay where they
got to play the role of spoiler. They beat Tampa
Bay and come from behind fashion. It was a crazy game.
They got it the game winning field goal on the
last play of the game. Now they've got to go
on the road for a second week in a row.
How do you get excited to go to Arizona? And

(47:27):
then you look at what does Atlanta have on deck?
They get to play the Rams next week on Monday
night football. We got a TV sandwich. Okay, Thursday night,
Monday night, and in between you're going to Arizona. I'm sorry.
If Atlanta shows up today and is able to win
a second week in a row on a road against

(47:49):
a garbage team that they shouldn't even be excited about,
kudos to them. They'll get my money.

Speaker 2 (47:55):
I am scared to do it, but I'm gonna definitely
use it in a pick them contest and the Cardinals.
I absolutely love the spot that you're mentioning about two
teams that don't care. Marco, what are you promoting today?

Speaker 5 (48:07):
Well, we do have a five percent play over at
wager Talk. I've got three plays loaded right now at
wager Talk, and it has been just an incredible seven
week run that we've been doing. Yesterday we went three
and one. The one oh my, I had green Bay
that was the one loser yesterday. You want to talk about,

(48:28):
you know, just pure torture. And I swear to god,
I felt like I was the only person in the
sports book the casino I was at yesterday that had
a ticket on green Bay. It was just all Chicago
bever face.

Speaker 2 (48:41):
He betting the same team, like the same result to happen,
especially a divisional game that happens twice in the same month.

Speaker 1 (48:50):
I just hate those games.

Speaker 2 (48:52):
I always bet the other and I don't mean size,
I mean props. Like you know me, I only really
bet props. I bet the other side of props throughout
that game, and I was at actually upset. I had
their green Bay quarterback Jordan Love over his rushing yards
and look at what Malik Willis did when he came in.

Speaker 5 (49:06):
Yeah, absolutely, and it was just it was sickening to
watch the way they blew that game. But you know,
three and one yesterday, we've been on a run for
seven weeks. We're up over eighty units for our clients
in the last seven weeks my five percent plays going
back to February of twenty twenty four last year. All right,

(49:28):
so we're almost two years now, we're forty and seventeen
when we release a five percent play. We got one
of those today. You can get it by itself for
thirty five dollars, but that's silly. For four more dollars,
you can get a one day all access pass and
get all of the plays that we have today. So
head over to wager talk dot com right now to
get that play, and let's keep cashing tickets.

Speaker 1 (49:50):
Keep it going.

Speaker 2 (49:51):
And Marco, I'm going to be asking you to come
on the Propertean Pod next week just so you know,
so get ready for my message. I'm asking you to
come on the show.

Speaker 1 (49:57):
You're on an absolute there, Marco. Thanks as always, we'll
see you next week.

Speaker 4 (50:02):
Okay, take care of Dariel.

Speaker 2 (50:04):
Make sure to get it's five percent play and follow
him over at Marco in Vegas. We've got NFL player
props and contract incentives to get to.

Speaker 1 (50:13):
I know John Murray said that they look at it
a lot more in week eighteen. I am the same
I typically do.

Speaker 2 (50:18):
However, for the teams that have nothing to play for today,
I really enjoyed some of these. You can catch all
of my contract incentives over at theprop Queen dot com
at my newsletter, so go check that out. I'll give
you guys a few starting with my favorite one of
the day, which I mentioned for free to all of

(50:39):
my subscribers, which was Rico Doudele over his receiving yards.
So everybody in the headlines today is talking about how
rico'dowdell can make a milli off his contract incentives, which
is true. However, he needs yards from scrimmage. So Rico
Dwdell can make a million dollar bonus for ony three

(50:59):
hundred and fifty scrimmage yards. He's currently at ONYD two
hundred and thirty seven. Dowdell needs one hundred and thirteen
yards from scrimmage to hit his million dollar bonus. He's
on a one year deal worth just under three mil,
which isn't high for a lot of players, so he
really could be making half his salary and bonuses if
he cashes the scrimmage yards bonus.

Speaker 1 (51:21):
Tampa Bay is allowing the.

Speaker 2 (51:24):
Most receiving yards per game to running backs at just
under fifty six receiving yards a games, sixty five percent
of running backs have gone over their receiving yard prop
against the Bucks. When Rico Daddle's been up against teams
that are bottom ten AKA allowing some of the most
receiving yards per games to running backs, He's had fifty
six against Dallas, twenty eight against Miami, twenty one against

(51:45):
the Rams, and thirty six against San fran. This number
at thirteen and a half is way too low for
a player in a meaningful game, in a great matchup
for himself going up against Bucks that can also be
making a million dollars, at least start cutting into that incentive.
We're not going rushing plus receiving. We're just going over
thirteen and a half receiving yards for Rico Dowdele today.

(52:09):
Some other incentives that stood out Keenan Allen his props
three and a half. The book knows he needs three
to go to make two hundred and fifty K. He's
at sixty eight six, so he has to get seventy
one catches. He is at sixty eight. He makes two
hundred fifty K if he does it. Keenan Allen's also
at six hundred and eighty receiving yards. He needs seven

(52:30):
fifty to make another two fifty K. He's currently at
four touchdowns. He needs six to make another two hundred
fifty K. Another one that makes some sense today, Oh,
I love this one. Marquise Hollywood Brown. Hollywood Brown is
at five touchdowns. He needs six to make seven hundred
and fifty thousand dollars. His any time touchdown prop today

(52:53):
is plus four twenty five. And I looked, I know
it's not Patrick Mahomes, It's Gardner Minshew on props dot Cam.
It showed me that when Marquise Hollywood Brown has been
with Gardner Minshew both times Hollywood has scored a touchdown
plus four twenty five. I put one hundred bucks on
it today.

Speaker 1 (53:12):
I loved it.

Speaker 2 (53:13):
So those are just a few of the contract incentive
player props that stood out to me today. I mentioned it,
uh Fixer time, I said ricodoubdel over receiving yards today,
he's gonna start.

Speaker 1 (53:27):
Dipping into making getting closer to the million. He needs
to go over a hundred he needs one hundred and
thirteen yards scrimmage yards. He's uh so, I would say
against the Bucks who struggle against pass catching backs, go
over receiving yards today. Again, it's scrimmage yards. It is not.

Speaker 2 (53:45):
Just strushing yards, so make sure to check those out
again the prop Queen dot Com. I have my full
list of all of the contract incentive props that stood out,
all of the props for today that stood out. Because
not everything is about just the contract incentives. There are
actually still good matchups out there where you can bet
those props. I gave out the one o'clock games already.
I'm gonna go do the four o'clock and night games

(54:07):
right now, but those were some for the early slate.

Speaker 1 (54:09):
Of games that you could check out for contract incentives.

Speaker 2 (54:12):
I hope you all have a great holiday. If I
don't see you, guys, I hope that everyone has a
profitable Sunday.

Speaker 1 (54:18):
Thank you, y Anny.

Speaker 2 (54:19):
The Greek Greek underscore gambler Vegas Murray John Murray from
the Westgate, for giving us the needs of the day
and the absolute on fire Marco D'Angelo, Marco and Vegas
is where you can find him. On X for giving
us some plays of the day. See you guys Thursday,
actually for Christmas Day. President and I are going to
be doing some wager talk stuff while you know, the

(54:42):
Jews are going to be working while everyone celebrates Christmas.
If you need any Christmas action, we'll get you covered
on Thursday, and we will be back here next Sunday,
of course, for Week seventeen.

Speaker 1 (54:51):
Good luck today everyone,