Last Call LIVE: NFL Week 4 Predictions, Picks & Best Bets | Sunday Morning Line Moves | September 28

Looking for NFL picks and predictions for Week 4 action? We have you covered! We've waited since the Super Bowl to have another NFL betting slate and today we have a loaded one! We discuss what the market moves have been, are on going and where can we take advantage to win our NFL bets! 👀 
Join Ariel Epstein, Gianni the Greek, John Murray and Carmine Bianco as they give their best picks and critical steam moves! Drop your questions in the chat to have them answered during the live stream! 😎

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Love another Sunday that I regret going out last night.

Speaker 2 (00:06):
Happy Sunday, it's a football Sunday.

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Very excited to take you guys through the next hour
giving you the edge here at wayger Talk's last call.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
I'm the prop Queen Ary Epstein. Happy New Year to
you guys as well as I guess what I wasn't
here last week. I don't remember.

Speaker 1 (00:22):
Anyway, I hope that we are going to give you
guys a great edge going into this slate of games.
I know we've already got the game going on in
Dublin with the Steelers taking a lead going at half,
but we're going to go through the one o'clock, the
four o'clock, eight o'clock, some primetime slots, and we've got
the best guys to do it. We've got Yanni the
Greek to kick things off, John Murray joining us from

(00:43):
over at the West Gate to take you behind the counter,
and then Carmel Bianco going to give us some NFL action.
Thanks for everyone tuning in, by the way, especially on
our various social channels, Kick Rumble, Wager Talk YouTube channel,
So if you are new here, hit the subscribe button
so you never missed a show at the wager Talk
YouTube If you have any questions too, We love to

(01:04):
interact with you guys. That's what this show is all about.
So make sure to write in the chat and you
can ask any of our wager Talk handicappers any of
the questions you have going into today's slate of games,
also have your odds Logic screen open and ready to go.
You can use Oddslogic dot com slash prop queen. It's
created by Don Bess, the sports option guys. Odds Logic

(01:25):
creates all of your real time odds screen. It's the
ultimate one to really use because you could see all
the lines, how they've moved throughout the week. You could
see how they open, how they close, which books have
the best numbers. It's designed with cutting edge technology, delivers
unparalleled customization, lightning fast updates to give you a winning edge.
Send your game rotation numbers along with all of your

(01:47):
questions too. So let's start with the guy who joins
us all the time every week here on a Sunday.
You see him all the time on wager Talk platforms.
He's not in his normal location, but is wearing a
Phillies at again, how are you Yanni degree.

Speaker 3 (02:03):
Good morning, good morning, great Saturday of college football. So
we're rolling in the Sunday excited for the NFL.

Speaker 2 (02:09):
Is the Phillies really good luck charm or something.

Speaker 3 (02:12):
It's been good? Yeah, it's really good.

Speaker 2 (02:14):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (02:14):
Every week of college football we've won every week zero,
week one, week two, week three, week four. Every week
has been profitable. And so far regular season of NFL
has been good too. So I like today's games.

Speaker 1 (02:26):
Okay, so you like today's games. We've got this game
going on in Dublin. I don't know if live action
is something you think about, but it is halftime.

Speaker 2 (02:34):
Anything live coming in?

Speaker 1 (02:36):
Not?

Speaker 3 (02:37):
Actually, that's what I was just looking for to see
if anything was coming in. I'm seeing the under getting
bet a little bit, the under twenty. It was a
low scoring first half, not really sticking out on the side.
Before the game started, it was all Minnesota. So this
would be a really good result for the books. It
would wipe out a lot of the early parlays that

(02:57):
are tied into you know that one pm kickoffs, because's
a lot of betters. That's what they'll do. They'll tie
in that early game over in Europe with a little
later games and see if they could have some action already.
But so far it doesn't look good for Minnesota. They're
minus three and a half in the second half and
I'm not seeing them getting any respect at all, So
it doesn't look good for Minnesota in the second half.

Speaker 2 (03:19):
I'm going to ask you some of my questions.

Speaker 1 (03:22):
Then I'm going to see what you like today, and
then we'll get to some of the questions in the chat.

Speaker 2 (03:28):
I was watching bet on it.

Speaker 1 (03:29):
Here at Ways to talk with you are always on.
You gave out a scary play and I'm curious if
you're still backing it those Giants, You still liking them.

Speaker 3 (03:38):
Yeah, I'm not afraid of the Here's the thing that
that spreads the great equalizer, and I think with that
game right there, it's you're paying such a premium right
now for the Chargers. And I'm high on the Chargers.
I have season win totals over I have them to
win the Super Bowl future, so I want to see
the Chargers continue to do well. But this line is

(03:59):
just way too because it's a reflection of the drop
off in quarterback from Russell Wilson to now the number
one guy, a rookie, number one draft pick, but if
you look at what Russell Wilson's done this season, where's
the dropoff? Look at his quarterback rating he's got like
a in two or three games he threw for below

(04:19):
fifty percent completion rad he threw the ball thirty seven times,
had fifteen catches. Like, It's not like he's going out
there and winning games single handedly. So the drop off
between the number one and number two is negligent at best.
If anything, I think it may be an upgrade at
the quarterback position, where you know that the kid's probably
not going to be as gutsy as Russell Wilson thrown
into quadruple coverage and getting picked off every third pass. So,

(04:43):
if anything, I think it's an upgrade coupled with the
rest of the team knows they got to step up,
like we now have a rookie at quarterback. So if anything,
I think it's the perfect storm to get a motivated
Giants team at home against a team traveling cross country,
playing at a conference who's already undefeated, and there's a
lot of recency bias. That's just how well the Chargers

(05:03):
have been playing arguably the best team in football. I
don't think so, and I want them to be, but
just power rating wise, that just isn't the case. They're
just not the best team in the NFL. In fact,
Chargers are barely top ten. And again this is coming
from someone who's biased on the Chargers, but power rating wise,
there's ten twelve teams that would be favored over the

(05:24):
Chargers on a neutral field. Now, again the books, they're
going to manage their risk. It's kind of like I
talked about Alabama. They got to manage their risk. I
thought Alabama was better team than Georgia based on my
power ratings. Again, the game could have turned out Georgia winning,
and I still would have trusted my power ratings. What
I'm trying to say is like, at the end of
the day, that's all I can look at. And when

(05:45):
I look at the Chargers, like I said, they're they're
a lot stocks, a lot higher than it should be
this early in the season, and I think the Giants
is a lot lower than it should be. So win
or lose, I think getting six and a half it's
a gift.

Speaker 1 (06:00):
The best part about sports betting is that you're gonna
watch some games that you normally wouldn't watch because who
cares You've got the Vegas Raiders. No offense to you
living in Vegas, but you've got the Vegas Raiders and
the Chicago Bears. This was one of the most intriguing
games of the week to me. I know that my
friends in the group chat are all on the Raiders today.
Kelly was saying she thinks this would end up being
a pros versus Joe's kind of game recency biases on

(06:21):
the Bears after what they looked like against Dallas. But
the Bears really aren't that good of a team. Vegas
is at home, short spread and minus one and a half.
I think it flipped too early in the week. What
are you seeing here?

Speaker 4 (06:34):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (06:34):
This is a to me, this has stay away written
all over it. You just touched it. Chicago's coming off
such a big win against the Dallas Cowboys and it
must win almost at home. You know, they had already
gone behind in their Division zero and two. They had
lost the Minnesota, they lost to Detroit. Now here come
the Dallas Cowboys and other confidence at least fall and
they beat them. So are you expect to let down?

Speaker 4 (06:57):
Maybe?

Speaker 3 (06:57):
But are you comfortable laying points with this Vegas team?
I'm not again. They just lost by seventeen to Washington.
They lost by eleven at home to this Chargers team.
I just don't feel comfortable betting the Raiders in the
favorite spot, Like it's not a team. I feel all
warm and fuzzy walk into the window to put my

(07:18):
hard earned cash on the Raiders as favorites. So yeah,
I'm here in Vegas that the city's excited for him.
In fact, the casino across the street had a big
Raiders helmet as their low light logo this morning, bright
and early.

Speaker 2 (07:32):
Yeah, we're dying into those Golden Knights.

Speaker 3 (07:34):
They're excited, they're excited, But yeah, I don't like it.

Speaker 1 (07:37):
I'll you don't like that Vegas game. Another game people
are intrigued by is this Eagles Bucks game. What do
you see there?

Speaker 3 (07:45):
I like the under. I bet the under. I went
under forty four and a half immediately. I like the
Eagles as well. Here's a Super Bowl winner that you know,
you expect the team to have a little Super Bowl
hangover and because of that, like they're performing the betting market.
They're a three and oh team that's covered two of
their three games already, and that shouldn't be the case.
Because again, they're Super Bowl champs. They're supposed to be overvalued,

(08:09):
and what happens, they haven't been more than except for
the opening game against Dallas, they haven't been what a
field goal favorites against the Rams all pick them at
Kansas City. So I think Philly's still being discounted coming
off that Super Bowl win. And I think Tampa Bay
got lucky last week against New York Jets. Real quickly,

(08:33):
this is a team that could very easily be zero
to three instead of three and oh. They've got three
wins by a combined five points. To me, with that
kind of point differential, I'm looking to fade Tampa. I'm
looking for spots to fame them because their points scored
points allow tells me this should not be a three
and oh team. They're phony. They're either getting lucky with
turnovers with the other team committing penalties, but they're not

(08:56):
They're not winning by any kind of margin where the
Eagles are. I like Philly in that spot sound square,
but I like Phillian.

Speaker 1 (09:03):
Under Speaking of square, the chat's asking what are the
heavy sides of the week that I guess forfeed the
public purposes, we should be fading.

Speaker 3 (09:11):
Yeah, and be careful with that in the NFL, because
I promise you, by the time the game kicks off,
there's so many opinions that the books make money. There's
so much. I don't think you could go back the
last ten years, I promise you. And so fifty two weeks, right,
there's five hundred plus weeks over the last ten years.
Over five hundred weeks, I would venture a guess that

(09:32):
the books lost less than two percent of those less
than two percent of those weeks. So they don't need anything.
They just need us to go in there and bet
we're laying eleven to ten, we're already taking the worst
of it. They really don't need anything like the fact
if we're all lining up on one side, that it's
going to lose because we're doing that. I just never
understood that. But I know everybody loves to know what

(09:54):
the books need. And again, when you're getting eleven to ten,
you really don't need much except the book action. But
the one sided games that are sticking out are Baltimore
Baltimore over Kansas City, and usually with a coin flip
kind of game, you don't expect that road favorites. You
don't expect that, But I just think that the stock

(10:14):
on Kansas City is so low right now. Betters are
looking for a reason to fade Casey and Mahomes, and
they're doing it today with Baltimore. They're also already tying
in Denver for Monday Night, so the books are probably
gonna have to go to teaser protection on the Denver Broncos.
Pay attention to that line, because I'm already seeing the
parlays on the point spread, the money line parlays, and

(10:35):
the teasers tied into Monday Night with the Denver Broncos
like they already have Tuesday's newspaper. And Denver won that
game by forty points. The betters are that sure. Minnesota.
That was an early game that got a ton of
one sided action. Like I said, it's going to wipe
out a lot a lot of parlays already. Houston, Houston,
Texans getting money. Dallas and Detroit. So it's the usual suspects.

Speaker 2 (10:58):
You know.

Speaker 3 (10:58):
Detroit, they going out there, they're playing a bad Cleveland team.
They got to win by double digits. No one's afraid
of laying it. They're teasing it. They're money lining it. Detroit.
I'm sure Detroit's Survivor pick of the week. So Detroit's
that sexy pick for sure, But Baltimore, Denver, Houston, Dallas, Detroit,
those are the public signs that are sticking out the most.

(11:20):
But again, unless you see the line move is what
you need to be paying attention to, Like, how are
the books respecting that money? Because youve got to remember,
if ten guys walk up and bet ten dollars on
Team AY, and then I walk up and I bet
a thousand on Team B, they may have ninety percent
of the tickets on Team A, but they want teammate

(11:42):
to win. Just because they have ninety percent of the
tickets on Team A means nothing. Where's the money, what's
the money show? Where's that balance? Because that's what's going
to move the market. The ticket count means absolutely nothing,
and that's what most of the data out there is
like where they're one sided with ticket count because again,
ten people could bet Team A. I bet fifty x

(12:03):
on Team B and the ticket count means nothing. So
always keep that in the back of your mind.

Speaker 2 (12:09):
Now, let we know where the public is going, Yanni,
where are you and those sharp groups going?

Speaker 3 (12:14):
All right, we took this is going to scare batters.
We banged New Orleans immediately. I bet New Orleans probably
seven different ways. I bet New Orleans from seven plus
seventeen at minus one fifteen, I gave them ount to
subscribers at plus sixteen or sixteen and a half. I
bet them at plus fifteen and all the way down, though.
I think fifteen and a half was the last bet
I have on New Orleans. You know, I like the Giants.

(12:36):
I already liked Kansas City. I like Kansas City from
before that line even came out. I thought Kansas City
was gonna be undervalued. They are a couple of sharp
sides to sixty Atlanta plus one and a half. Detroit
got steamed again. That's public and Sharps on the Detroit team,
which again shows you Sharps don't care what the public's doing.

(12:56):
They don't pay attention to what the public's doing. What's
the number and it is in an efficient number, that's it.
They're on the Rams, two seventy rams. They like the
Rams a lot, and like I said, they like Philadelphia
and Houston another side that's public also and sharp betters
as well, So Philly, Houston, Atlanta, Detroit sharp giants sharp

(13:16):
New Orleans sharp case sharp. But again they with sharps
lose too. Just cash more than we trash.

Speaker 2 (13:23):
That's all cash more than we trash. I love it.
This chat's asking also any teaser legs that you would bet?

Speaker 3 (13:30):
Oh, right now, the teasers has been so good. Jump
into the steam room. You'll get the teasers for free
about fifteen minutes before kickoff right now, seven and one
this year, if the games were going off right now,
do we even have a teaser? The only leg I
could possibly Yeah, the teaser I would give would be Chicago.
I'd take Chicago up to seven and a half, and
I take Kansas City up to eight and a half,

(13:50):
and I take Washington, Washington.

Speaker 2 (13:52):
Do you think it's a little fishy that.

Speaker 3 (13:54):
The line is going to three?

Speaker 2 (13:55):
Don't you think it's what's going to three?

Speaker 3 (13:58):
I think Washington's gone, Atlanta's going to so I wouldn't
tease Washington.

Speaker 1 (14:02):
I think it's fishy that the book is welcoming those
teasers on the chiefs.

Speaker 3 (14:07):
Yeah, it is, it is.

Speaker 4 (14:09):
It is.

Speaker 2 (14:09):
I thought maybe they would move it today and it's
still two and a half, and I just find it
to be a very fishy line. That the Ravens are
on the road. You would think that's an easy teaser
spot to go take the Chiefs at home in a
close like I just think it's wait it is.

Speaker 3 (14:24):
But here's here's the predicament. The book is in. Okay,
they're getting bet Baltimore by recreational betters. They like Baltimore,
and they should they like Baltimore. Okay, they power rating wise,
it makes sense.

Speaker 2 (14:38):
But so there's a lot on both sides.

Speaker 3 (14:41):
Sharp betters are taking the three when the three pops up.
If you look at the Oddsway logic screen and you
click it, you'll see whenever three is popped up at
the Sharp books, it's been picked off. So throughout the
week they popped up three, they pushed three, and whenever
they got three, someone took k C plus three. So
they know if they want to manage the risk, all
they have to do is move with the three and

(15:02):
they'll balance it. It looks to me like they're almost
welcoming Baltimore at minus two and a half. That's a
little worried some on the Baltimore side, because again just
seeing the action already, not only is the ticket side
on Baltimore, but the money is on Baltimore two, even
with the plus three being bought by Sharps. It's just

(15:23):
more public money than sharp money always in the NFL,
and by the time that game kicks off later, I
think it's just going to grow. It'll be interesting to
see if they go to three. If they go to three,
that tells you they're trying now. They're scared of Baltimore
on that Baltimore money and they want to limit that risk.
But if that game stays two and a half, that's
not a great sign for Baltimore with the money that's

(15:45):
coming in.

Speaker 2 (15:46):
Interesting. Okay, good to know.

Speaker 1 (15:48):
There are two other games we haven't really touched on yet,
the Panthers and the Patriots, and then the Colts and
the Rams.

Speaker 2 (15:54):
What do you think?

Speaker 3 (15:55):
All right? I like the Rams. I do like the Rams.
That game got themed over, Okay, soon is that total?
That's what's interesting. This total got steamed over by multiple groups.
And then this morning this group that destroys team totals,
destroys like all those little derivatives, first half total, like
the crazy stuff. They came in and blasted under Colts

(16:17):
first half team total. So they expect the Colts to
score less than ten and a half points in the
first half, but somehow they do like the game to
go over forty seven and a half. Try to make
that make sense in your head. I don't know. I'm
not smart enough. It'll blow my brain. So I just
bet everything. That's what I do. When the dust settles,
I hope to be ahead. I don't try to figure
out the puzzle like that. But they like the Colts

(16:39):
under team total first half, but they did steam the
game over. I personally like the Rams. I think three
and a half's a gift. I think even minus four
uncomfortable welighing the Rams anything less than a touchdown. I
think they covered this game. That's my opinion. The other
one Carolina, I don't really have an opinion on it.
I think that's a really ugly game against too you know,

(17:01):
one win football teams. The difference is you have Carolina
coming in off of what a thirty to nothing win
against Atlanta, so, you know, maybe a little recency bias there.
Maybe looked at UH, New England because of that. I
don't like the game. Gun the head. I bet New England,
but it's probably a pass.

Speaker 1 (17:19):
There was an interesting spot that Marco brought up when
you guys were on bet on It this week when
he was saying the the forty nine ers are in
a really bad scheduling spot because they have to face
the Rams on a short week on Thursday. So with
them getting Jacksonville at home, super banged up San Francisco,
brock Purdy coming back under center, how would you play

(17:42):
the Jaguars and the Niners?

Speaker 3 (17:43):
Yeah? I wouldn't, to be honest with you. Yeah, that's
because because of the party situation. His backup came in
and won two football games. So quantifying the worth is
very difficult because now the backup came in played great.
Did he just outperform, Like would he have regressed towards

(18:03):
his mean had he played five, six, seven, eight games.
That's the question that's hard to figure out. And the
more you have to guess, the better the return has
to be. And in this spot, I just don't see that,
Like I'm taking more risks because I got to figure
more things out and the return just isn't there. So
again I think it's it's just one of those stay

(18:24):
away games. Probably Dogger pass gunned the head just because
again the forty nine ers that have definitely been outperforming
the betting market. But it's not a game I'm really
interested in, and I don't really see much sharp action
or even public action. It's kind of like not much risk.
That's why I'm not seeing much movement. Just not a

(18:47):
big game for the books. The outcome won't matter too much.
That's why it's sitting on three. Not much movement.

Speaker 2 (18:53):
Sunday Night Football Packers Cowboys. What do you say.

Speaker 3 (18:57):
Dallas and the Packers? I haven't touched that game yet.
Pactors have been playing really well. The question we all
have to ask ourselves is simple. Is the look ahead
the right line or is the adjustment the right line?
Because the line was supposed to be about four and
a half. Now you're looking at six and a half
seven Now is that warranted? I think it's too early

(19:20):
for that. Like, I don't think so yet. I really
don't like Again, I'm impressed with how well Green Bay's played.
And anytime a team's, you know, a seven and a
half point favorite and loses outright and then comes back
and is a heavy favorite the next week, they usually
do well in that spot. That's what worries me about
fading green Bay here. But this Dallas as a home

(19:44):
dog seems attractive to me, And that might just be
old school thinking, but it does. Dallas is up for me.
If I had to bet the game, it would be
Dallas or Pass. I just think even if if green
Bay we knows the better team, and on paper, it's primetime,
it's Sunday night, it's green Bay coming to town. If

(20:05):
Dallas has anything, you got to show up for this game,
especially the way they lost to Chicago last week and
their only wins against the Giants by only three points.
In the game they didn't cover. Like Dallas looked as
good as you could look losing to the Eagles in
Week one, and then I looked as bad as you
could possibly look in back to back weeks. So if anything,
I think their stocks low, Dallas are pass. If you

(20:26):
could get seven, I think it's a good bet.

Speaker 1 (20:29):
Johanni the Greek, thank you as always for coming on
here on a Sunday with us, giving us those winners.

Speaker 2 (20:34):
What are you promoting today before I let you go?

Speaker 3 (20:35):
Yeah, we'll be in the steam room in about forty minutes.
We're gonna go final hour going into the NFL. Will
go over as much information as possible share some bets
with you guys, Answer any questions and go over week
to date, year to date, month to date. So far,
so good, and again, just keep grinding away. Football is
being good. I came in and saying it's going to
be the best football season I've had since twenty twenty,

(20:58):
and so far it's living off. So lets just keep going.

Speaker 2 (21:02):
She loves to hear it, and it's an honor to
have you here with us. Yanni the Greek. Good luck today,
see you next week coming up. Now, we've got one
of my great friends who maybe will help my little
hangover that I've got going on today. He knows a
thing or two about me being in bad moods the
day after I go out. John Murray joining the show

(21:23):
from the Super Book in Las Vegas.

Speaker 4 (21:26):
Hi, Jam, you're hungover on the morning you're hosting a
show for your friend Kelly. I can't believe that. What
are you doing?

Speaker 2 (21:33):
She said she hasn't had alcohol in a week.

Speaker 4 (21:36):
Really, I don't believe that. I don't believe that she
could get through a Saturday of college football without drinking.

Speaker 1 (21:42):
I know, right, and she's went her dad and like
the maybe she doesn't consider certain things alcohol that most
would like.

Speaker 4 (21:49):
If it's a light beer, then that's.

Speaker 1 (21:51):
Not right, Like then it doesn't count for maybe like one,
Margarita doesn't count.

Speaker 4 (21:56):
I can see that.

Speaker 1 (21:57):
I can see that Margarita on the Kelly and Murray
pod and she's, you know, fine, Well.

Speaker 4 (22:03):
She's fine at one. But if she goes to two,
then then the wheels come off the show. Yes, I
agree one one is acceptable. What were you celebrating the
Yankees playoff clinch?

Speaker 1 (22:17):
While the Yankees have to win today, Toronto has to
lose today.

Speaker 4 (22:23):
We know, you know, we know, and I think that's
something that people probably wouldn't understand. Some of our biggest
decisions today are we want the Yankees to win the
American League East and we want the Guardians to win
the American League Central. So obviously, you know, we're keeping
an eye on the NFL, and.

Speaker 1 (22:41):
I feel like, I mean, the Guardians, I understand, but
why the Yankees. They seem like they'd be public over
the blue.

Speaker 4 (22:47):
It's not that we really win on the Yankees, it's
that we would get We would lose a good number
on Toronto. Toronto was a long shot pick and there
was a bunch of tickets on them. And if they
win the division, we take a hit, so we'll be watching.
We also want the Reds to make playoffs. The Reds
can make the playoffs with a win today or a
Mets loss, so we've got a number of moving parts

(23:07):
on the diamond as we're also navigating the NFL. Luckily,
Team USA did us a favor. We don't have to
worry about watching the Ryder Cup today. One less thing
to sweat. They didn't do too well, but we have
a lot of baseball needs in addition to the NFL
stuff today.

Speaker 1 (23:24):
Okay, I like it, and I know that someone in
the chat asked what happened to Liverpool, which is probably
not gonna make you who.

Speaker 4 (23:30):
Asked that that person should be banned from the chat
get rid of.

Speaker 2 (23:33):
Let me get the name, Jose, Jose, you're.

Speaker 4 (23:38):
Out of the show. That's I don't like that.

Speaker 2 (23:42):
That know what happened to Liverpool. I don't follow soccer,
but it clearly wasn't good.

Speaker 4 (23:49):
They lost two to one yesterday against Crystal Palace, a
tough game they lost. They didn't look too good actually,
So now it's okay, So Jose, I apologize for my outburst.
You can still be on the show.

Speaker 2 (23:59):
I'm sorry, Well, let's.

Speaker 1 (24:00):
Make some other people happy, because I do like to
see others happy. If we can't be talking about the
sport that you love the most, the NFL, What do
you guys need, because I know Kelly wants me to.
This is all Kelly cares about is make sure to
tell me what John needs.

Speaker 4 (24:16):
She can't watch the show. I don't know.

Speaker 2 (24:18):
I don't with her dad at breakfast, she said. And
she doesn't really have good service.

Speaker 4 (24:23):
Yeah, I noticed she face times me a lot, and
I'm like, why are you facetiming me? Just call me.

Speaker 2 (24:28):
You know that your service in her house doesn't really work.

Speaker 4 (24:31):
That's what it is. I guess. I think we're gonna
need I mean, it's it's it's a long way off,
but I'm sure we'll need Dallas tonight. Dallas about right now,
six and a half point underdog at home. Well unusual,
we'll see the im that big of a dog at home.
Very similar game to Kansas City, New York last week.
Can't say it was about the same big or same
level of a favorite in that game. We'll need the

(24:53):
Cowboys in the morning. Oh, we really need the Steelers,
but it's too late for that one. That doesn't help anybody.
We'd love to see the Steelers. We'll need Cleveland, We'll
need anybody in the afternoon. It looks like we'll need
San fran Yeah, San Francisco, which would have surprised me
a little bit. I wouldn't have expected that. And we'll
need the Giants. Chargers will be in a lot of

(25:15):
parlays for sure. Right now, we need Washington. You know,
there's a lot of money that came in on Atlanta
during the week because of the news about Jade and
Daniels and McLaurin being out for the Commanders area, they
call themselves the Commanders.

Speaker 1 (25:28):
Now do you see any line speaking of Washington, because
that is a team that I feel like the Lions
have been moving a bunch on. That's because obviously injuries.
What lines do you see moving before we get to
kick off?

Speaker 4 (25:41):
Well, there's a lot of sharp money on New Orleans,
New Orleans. The you know they keep betting New Orleans down.
We actually took a bet this morning from an account
that we respect a lot on the Saints at ten
to one to win the game. Outright, thought it was
a pretty interesting bit. Yeah, it's a respected account. I mean,
you can't ignore it obviously, that would that would cause
a lot of upheaval in these survivor contests that I

(26:04):
know you and I love New Orleans. I think that
there's a lot of support for Philadelphia as well. This morning,
there's sharp and public support for Philadelphia. Tampa Bay gets
some key guys back this week. But the Tampa Bay
has been fortunate to be three and oh. You know,
they really could have lost all three of their games
this season, and they're a little bit I like Baker

(26:25):
Mayfield a lot. I like the Buccaneers, but I do
think they're a little bit fraudulent as a three and
oh team. But I think Philadelphia is one that you
maybe I don't. I doubt it would go to four.
But there's a lot of there's a lot of money
from both the public and the sharps on Eagles.

Speaker 1 (26:40):
Okay, San Francisco. They also, I know you said you
need them Rock Purdy back under center. They are on
a short week when like coming up, they'll be on
a short week going to get the Rams on Thursday.
So with the Niners and all the injuries, how do
you see that game playing out with Jacksonville? I know
you need them, but think that they could actually come through.

(27:01):
I kind of liked the Jacks this week.

Speaker 4 (27:04):
I feel like we're always every year talking about all
the injuries San Francisco is dealing with. I mean, yeah,
that just seems to be a common theme. And now
you got Bosa. I believe he's out for the season,
which is devastating for their defense. Yeah, it's a lot
of sharper support on Jacksonville and even public support as well. Jacksonville.

(27:24):
There is I mean San Francisco is included in a
number of money win parlays in the afternoon, but there's
a lot of support for Jacksonville, which is not what
I would have expected. To be honest with you, I
would not have seen that coming. Jacksonville has been They've
looked okay this season, but that's not a team I
would have expected the public to get behind. But right, yeah,
right now, we need the forty nine ers. But we

(27:46):
do have about what four and a half hours so
that game kicks off, so that could change.

Speaker 2 (27:50):
We also have some time.

Speaker 1 (27:51):
But the Chiefs and the Ravens, you know me big
Ravens fan, and I just spoked to Yanni the Greek
about this thought it was very suspicious that that Chiefs
line has stayed at two and a half, welcoming all
the teasers. So to Yanni's point, he said, well, if
the book doesn't move that two and a half because
of all the money they're getting on Baltimore, then it's
probably not great and not a great sign for Baltimore. However,

(28:13):
if they move the line to three, then it's a
good sign for Baltimore because they're trying to welcome in
as much possible action to balance it out on the
chief side.

Speaker 2 (28:22):
What say you about this Ravens Chiefs game.

Speaker 4 (28:25):
We've taken a lot of money on Kansas City in
that game. Right now, I mean right now, I.

Speaker 2 (28:29):
Thought Baltimore with the public side.

Speaker 4 (28:31):
Well, we got the game at plus three, so we're
doing We got a minus one oh five juice on
these big games on Sundays, so we've got Chiefs plus
three minus one fifteen Baltimore minus three plus one oh
five ten cents.

Speaker 2 (28:45):
We did move to three.

Speaker 4 (28:46):
Yeah, we're at three. That's that's why our ticketcount is
going to be a little misleading. I think it's important
too that the audience understands when they get a ticket
account number from one of these smug sportsbook directors like me.
They should know that if you have a number that's
different than the market, your Ticke account information is basically meaningless. Right,
So of course we have more tickets on the Chiefs

(29:07):
will need the Ravens right now. I don't know what
to say about your Ravens. They never should have lost
to Buffalo week one. They never should have lost that game.
But they could not stop the run at all last
Monday night against Detroit. That was not a fraudulent win
by Detroit. That was a very good win by Detroit.
So we'll see what they can do today. The loser
of this game is going to be one in three,

(29:29):
a big one in the afternoon. Right now, we need Baltimore.
We'll see what happens in next four and a half
five hours.

Speaker 1 (29:36):
Okay, so you guys do need Baltimore. Is that a
real need or is that like a somewhat need.

Speaker 4 (29:42):
Small need, not one of the significant ones. The significant
ones are going to be more Like I said, Giants,
we'll need Dallas tonight. I know we will. Right now,
we need the Commanders, the Browns, the Steelers.

Speaker 2 (29:56):
Okay, so the Niners aren't as big of a need.

Speaker 4 (29:59):
Either not as big as those steel steelers out in
your your friend Kelly's favorite city, Doublin.

Speaker 2 (30:06):
I know she did really well there. She really thrived
in Dublin.

Speaker 1 (30:10):
In fact, that phone call I got from her when
she was on the way to the airport, she really
sounded like she was going She was like kind of
hoping her plane would go down.

Speaker 4 (30:19):
Yeah. Well, you know, she really handles the feat with
a lot of grace. You know, she's got a little
bit of grace. Any favors, no, no, well that yeah,
that that would be worth having a plane go down
your your team losing in Dublin, I think would be
after I think, what like eleven day vacation overseas, What
a tough way to go through life.

Speaker 2 (30:37):
And she flew first class?

Speaker 4 (30:39):
What oh, I didn't even know that part.

Speaker 1 (30:41):
I go because we only do vacation one way. It's
either extremely great or it's no go. Why don't you
do like the middle ground of like, oh, you can
have an average vacation, Kelly and I don't do average.

Speaker 4 (30:57):
Why don't you guys just be normal, Just have normal accommodation. Okay,
I want the.

Speaker 2 (31:04):
Super buck, then we'll be normal. With you.

Speaker 4 (31:07):
Oh yeah right. Kelly complains about her accommodations every time
she stays here unless I have her in like one
of the nicest sweets on the property. That well, no,
that's my fault. I've shown her how nice our sweets
can be here because some of the you know, some
of the theme suites are awesome. I've made the mistake.

Speaker 2 (31:25):
The one that wanted like the pink, wasn't it like
a pink one or something.

Speaker 4 (31:29):
I think she was in the bunny suite, I believe, yeah,
I think so.

Speaker 2 (31:33):
There was another one though that you couldn't put us in,
but she wanted it.

Speaker 4 (31:37):
I can't believe she was demanding. I don't remember. I'm
sure I think there is a something like that a
pink suite, or there's a lot of them. The marketing
team does a good job.

Speaker 2 (31:46):
They do. Your suites are awesome. Nick from New York
City wants to know the need in the Patriots Carolina.

Speaker 4 (31:52):
Game right now. It's actually New England because we took
some bigger bets on Carolina plus five and a half.
So now not like a significant game, but we would
be rooting for like our best case scenario right now
looks like if New England could cover the spread, win
by six or more and actually have the game go
under the total, very low total, so not a lot

(32:14):
of margin for error there for us. We wouldn't really
want too many points out of Carolina. We're going to
get both those sides, right.

Speaker 2 (32:22):
Okay, Well, Carolina is a terrible Rundi as well, So
if the Patriots can just get Remondro Stevenson to hold
onto the football or choose another running back to run
the football, then maybe they will have a chance to
cover saw the steam on them as well. For and
a half to five and a half.

Speaker 1 (32:35):
Move John Murray over at the super Book in Las Vegas.
Make sure to go say hello to him at the
West Gate. He loves talking to people, very social.

Speaker 2 (32:43):
You.

Speaker 4 (32:43):
I'm a man of the people. I love it man.

Speaker 1 (32:45):
Yeah, everybody, make sure to go check it out over there.
It's the best sports book in Las Vegas. We have
a great time, except for when our Super Bowl bets lose,
which is a great time. John Murray, thanks for always
coming on with us. We love yall, and we'll see
you next week.

Speaker 4 (33:01):
Next week.

Speaker 2 (33:03):
Last, but certainly not least, our next guest is from
here at Wager talk. You see them all the time
talking soccer, hockey and NFL.

Speaker 1 (33:11):
Carman and Bianco joining the show from Canada, Canada. How
is it over there in Canada, Carmen.

Speaker 5 (33:19):
We are sweating as a nation here Ario, because you
know what, today is three three pm today, even though
football is on. I know you're gonna have the Yankees
game on on one TV. We're gonna have the Jay's
game on on the other. It's a shame one of these.

Speaker 2 (33:37):
Do you guys all love the Blue Jays over there?

Speaker 5 (33:39):
Yeah, it's like the Raptors.

Speaker 4 (33:42):
The nation.

Speaker 5 (33:45):
Takes to adopts the Raptors as their own during the playoffs.
When the Raptors are actually in the playoffs, they set
up Jurassic Parks throughout the arenas in Canada so where
people can watch on big screens. And I think it's
the same thing with the with the Blue Jays, maybe
outside of Montreal, who are still Montreal Expo fans even

(34:06):
though they're not no longer in the league. But yeah,
it's it's gonna be a dicey one today, to say
the least. We'll see if Gosman can get it done
at home. If not, the Yankees just have to keep
rolling the way they are.

Speaker 2 (34:20):
Yeah, it kind of scares me.

Speaker 1 (34:21):
At the Yankees around this wind streak going into the playoffs,
but it's fine. We'll see hopefully that it doesn't die
out before we get to NFL. Adam Schefter just tweeted
actives for today. Baker Mayfield, Tristan Wurfs, Chris Godwin a
big active today. Christian Gonzalez, Derek Stingley, and Shubba Hubbard
are all active today in the NFL. Chris Godwin a

(34:43):
big one for those bucks. But Carmine, what do you
like today on the board.

Speaker 5 (34:47):
So I'm gonna go with some props, because if I'm
wrong with the prop, Queen, you know, I want to
go props, and I'll toss out a couple. I'll toss
out a couple of QB passing ones. I like taking
passing ones and over the passing yards in games in
which I think are going to be competitive. And the
first one is a surprise because it is the Bills

(35:09):
game and it's Josh Allen. He's at two undred nineteen
and a half yards. You know. The caution sign here
is if the Bills get out to a huge lead
in this one, do they go to a running game
in the second half, do they bring in Trbitsky as well?
To Josh the competitor, he wants to be in there,
So you have to think that absince of a huge lead,

(35:31):
he's going to be in there for at least three
quarters of this game. But he could very well have
two hundred nineteen or two undred and twenty at halftime,
because I think the Bills are going to go after
the Saints early in this one and try and step
on their throats. The Saints have hung around in a
couple of games this season, so I think what you
want to do is trying to avoid kind of like
what Gianni said, because he likes the Saints, trying to

(35:53):
avoid keeping any team in a game. I still remember
a few years back the Bills pre Josh Allard. I
think it was Josh Allen's first year, a sixteen or
seventeen point dog going into Minnesota, and they won the
game out right. So to say that a sixteen point
dog can't win, I wouldn't agree with that, but I

(36:15):
hopefully it doesn't happen today. Justin Herbert over two hundred
and fifty one and a half yards, I think the
Giants are going to give him a game today as
well too. I think Herbert's going to put up his thing.
The Giants have allowed the third most passing yards. You
look at the three qbs they face. Dak put up
three hundred and sixty one, Daniel's turner in thirty three

(36:36):
and a half, and Mahomes, who hasn't been really past
happy and didn't have it, doesn't have the wide receivers,
still put up twouner in twenty four. Herbert's got a
lot more tools to him in that one. And you
look at his three games toder and eighteen versus Casey,
two hundred and forty two against Las Vegas and three
hundred against Denver, so two fifty one and a half.

(36:57):
I think is doable for Justin Herbert umm agree or
disagree before I keep before I keep rambling on.

Speaker 1 (37:06):
So I think, based on what I've heard, John Murray
says they need the Giants, Yanny the Greek likes the Giants.
If that's the case, and the Giants do keep this
game close, the Chargers are going to have to throw
the football, and we know that the Chargers love to
throw the football anyway.

Speaker 2 (37:23):
I like it.

Speaker 1 (37:24):
I know the Giants also have a terrible secondary, so
it makes a lot of sense for Justin Herbert to
go over pasting yards.

Speaker 5 (37:30):
I like it, so we should see a good one
they are now the Bears game. Ashton Johnty over sixty
eight and a half rushing yards in this one, Ariol
the Bears second worst through three weeks against the rush,
allowing US most rushing yards allowed, one hundred and twenty
versus Minnesota, one hundred and seventy seven versus the Lions,

(37:53):
and one hundred and twenty one versus Dallas in a
game in which Dac also had three hundred and sixty
one yards. I think in that one, no, that was
a different game, but one hundred and twenty one versus Dallas.
I think he gets over that number. Sixty eight and
a half. It's a little if you look at his
numbers thus far this season, a little more in this

(38:16):
number seems a little inflated, but I think he had
sixty eight in his last game, or sixty five. I
think he gets over this number against the Bears and
that rush defense. The last one is an under, and
it's the Cuba Hubbard one under fifty one and a
half rushing yards. He was limited practice on Thursday and Friday.

(38:38):
He's gonna play today. But the Pats defense have done
a fantastic job with their rush defense. They allowed only
fifty six to the Raiders, only sixty one to Miami,
and only sixty four to the Steelers this season. If
that calf injury is a little more serious than we
think it is and he doesn't get the touches, I

(38:59):
don't think he gets close to that number of fifty
one and a half unless he breaks a couple of
big ones. So I'm going to go under the total
in that one.

Speaker 2 (39:08):
I do like that as well. I was looking at it.

Speaker 1 (39:10):
I just wasn't sure until now if Jebba Hubbard was
going to be active or not, and he is, I
would say Chebba Hubbard under his rushing yards against the
Pat Steve that's allowed the second least rushing yards for
games running backs. You could look to maybe his receptions
because the Pats have been bad the last couple of
years against past catching backs. So that's a very intriguing

(39:30):
number as well. Carmine, when it comes to sides in
totals anything.

Speaker 2 (39:35):
He got there.

Speaker 5 (39:38):
A couple of them. I'm kind of like Jeohnny, I
do like the the Rams today, you know, I mean
we look at like and I'll just like sort of
preface some of my circa plays for for this week.
Last week four and one a good week three. This
week we started off with I had Seattle on a
couple of my entries, so those ones are in the

(40:01):
Pats laying the five and a half.

Speaker 4 (40:02):
That line hasn't.

Speaker 5 (40:03):
Really moved, but I just can't see the Pats going
zero to three at home under new coach Mike Rabel.
But they're in the position to do so today if
they lose the Texans. I have them on one of
my tickets. The Rams I have on both my tickets.
I have the Miami Dolphins on both of my tickets

(40:24):
against New York Jets. I just this is like a
battle of two very bad teams. But I still think,
you know, Miami at home maybe a little more upside.
But if they were to lose to the Jets today,
is that the end of coach McDaniels.

Speaker 1 (40:43):
That's what I've been hearing from a few people, not
that are necessarily close to the team, but I have
a few friends of mine who like the Dolphins, and
a lot of them are calling for his head if
they do lose to the Jets.

Speaker 2 (40:55):
I mean that's kind of rock bottom.

Speaker 5 (40:57):
Yeah, your Ravens, I think, are a better team. I
think Ravens should get to win. I think that's a
game that's going to get teased like crazy, if it
hasn't been already.

Speaker 2 (41:09):
I just.

Speaker 5 (41:11):
With with with Chiefs.

Speaker 1 (41:14):
Then you have a Ravens ticket, though I have a
Ravens minus two and a half and I have the
Chiefs now plus eight and a half in a teaser.

Speaker 2 (41:20):
So yeah, maybe I'll hit up.

Speaker 5 (41:23):
You know, I think when you look at a couple
of teams, and you look at teams and you say, wow,
one of these teams is going to be one in
three after this game, absent of a tie where they're
won two one. But both teams are equipped to easily
come back from one in three seasons and make the playoffs.
We're not talking about a team like who's you know,
a nine year or ten projected team. Yeah, absolutely they could.

Speaker 4 (41:48):
They could do it.

Speaker 2 (41:49):
One ticket on the Ravens to win the Super Bowl
last year.

Speaker 1 (41:52):
Obviously it was still a loser, but I did end
up getting that after their loss of the Raiders.

Speaker 5 (41:57):
Yeah, and if they were to lose here, I would
think if they were to lose here, you're gonna get
a really good price on them.

Speaker 2 (42:05):
Right now.

Speaker 1 (42:05):
So I do think if they lose to the Chiefs,
then you would probably get at least nine plus nine
fifty maybe like around there.

Speaker 2 (42:13):
But I still don't trust the Ravens.

Speaker 1 (42:15):
I tell everybody all the time that the regular season
bets are better to make than their postseason ones.

Speaker 4 (42:23):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (42:23):
No, the I was on the Ravens against Detroit, it
was that was a total shocker to me in that game.
I just listen.

Speaker 2 (42:31):
I was actually looking at Mahomes passing yards.

Speaker 5 (42:33):
Yeah, Detroit's a great team, but I didn't expect them
to get to Lamar seven times and sack them seven times.
I just did not see that happening. And if we
could just get a little stick them for those gloves
or hands of Henry, he'll be fine. A couple of
key fumbles. But I'm sorry. You were looking at the

(42:55):
Mahomes passing yards? Did you say, looking.

Speaker 1 (42:58):
At Mahomes passing yards? Yeah, already went up. It went
from let me see where it was. The Mahomes number
was two twenty nine and a half a few days
ago and now it's two thirty eight. Now, Yeah, these
are one hundred and ninety plus passing yards in home
games against bottom ten secondaries and all three last year.
And then he also has had two of the three

(43:20):
go over against the Ravens. The only one that didn't
was the last one last year.

Speaker 5 (43:24):
Yeah. Never right off, Casey, I know a lot of
people are they're like, well, one in three, but they're
gonna get They're gonna get Rice back, They're gonna get
healthy at some point, and.

Speaker 1 (43:35):
Just underratedly, Travis Kelsey has had one hundred yard games
against the Ravens and two of three.

Speaker 2 (43:40):
So just saying, okay, you never know, never know.

Speaker 1 (43:45):
I'm going to go through some props with everybody else,
But what are you promoting today, Carmen.

Speaker 5 (43:49):
Five percent play up in the NFL today and a
couple other plays as well to which are four percent plays.
You can get them all in one package for thirty
nine dollars. I've got that they still on the site
or just a five percent.

Speaker 4 (44:02):
On its own.

Speaker 5 (44:03):
And the last three years with my four and five
percent plays, the last three years since the started the
twenty twenty three season, one hundred and eighteen units with
four and five percent plays, which is number one at
wager Talk amongst all kappers. So let's keep the NFL
ball rolling.

Speaker 2 (44:20):
We love it.

Speaker 1 (44:20):
Carmen, thanks for coming on with us as always here
on last call on wager Talk. Good luck to your
bets today and we'll see you against you.

Speaker 4 (44:28):
Take care.

Speaker 1 (44:29):
And I'm not saying good luck to his turn onto
Blue Jays because I hope that my Yankees don't est
this up.

Speaker 2 (44:36):
Whatever. Honestly, I don't care that much about the division.
It is what it is.

Speaker 1 (44:39):
They'll be home anyway in the wild card the Yankees.
I'd rather than lose a game before the playoffs than
lose a wild card game. But whatever, I like hot streaks,
I'll come to an end. You asked about the over
four and a half rush attempts for Patrick mahomes Jack.
I kind of like the over on Lamar more for
his rush attempts. Even though it's up to eight and
a half now you can get around plus one hundred.

(44:59):
It was seven and a half earlier this week. Lamar's
had sixteen rush attempts in two of his last three
against the Chiefs last week, it looked like the game
plan was really to keep Lamar in the pocket. He
looked really hesitant to run. But the Chiefs are allowing
the second most rush attempts per game to quarterbacks this year.
Spencer Ratler, Kyler Murray, they all went over their rush
attempt props. And Lamar's much better runner, obviously, but also

(45:21):
like the Ravens can't go one at three, and Lamar
is going to take matters into his own hands because
he was even mad at like Derrick Henry last week,
and they're like good buddies.

Speaker 2 (45:29):
They were getting into it on the sideline. So if
Lamar just wants to run, I think he's just gonna
run this week. But some other plays that I like
for props. So Jalen Hurts over his longest rush is
fifteen and a half yards. Dating back to last season,
when Hurts faced the team bottom ten against mobile quarterbacks,
he averaged a longest rush of eighteen yards per game.
The problem is that Hurts doesn't run so much on

(45:50):
the road, so like it drops off a decent amount
when he's on the road. But all we need is
won And if you look at Tempa Bay Buccaneers the
first few weeks of the season, the Bucks are allowing
running backs. Sue, where was it?

Speaker 1 (46:07):
The Bucks are bottom ten in rush of temps allowed
to running backs last year and this year. So you
could look to Jalen Hurts over his fifteen and a
half yards on his longest rush in the Houston Jag
the Houston Texans game, I would look to either wide
receiver Xavier Hutchinson or Jaden Higgins to go over their
longest reception. Both receivers or tied with Nico Collins for

(46:30):
the most big catches this year for Texans.

Speaker 2 (46:33):
They also booked didn't catch a deep bult last week.

Speaker 1 (46:35):
Hutchinson's got more targets with eight, Higgins five, but look
at one of them. Because the Titans defense has allowed
the fourth most receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
Looking at all three games against the Titans this year,
multiple receivers have had at least a fifteen yard catch
nonetheleass eight and a half or eleven and a half.
So I would definitely look to Jayden Higgins or Xavier
Hutchinson to go over their longest reception of us do

(46:59):
I think it's pretty much all the big ones. Patrick
mahomes I just said that his passing yards prop went
from two twenty nine and a half to two thirty
eight and a half.

Speaker 2 (47:07):
The book I think is wrong on this.

Speaker 1 (47:09):
Mahomes averages twenty more yards a game at home then
on the road. He's only played one game this season
at home. It's a short spread. So in a closely
contested game, if the Ravens potentially do take leads, Mahomes
averaging two hundred and ninety two passing yards a game
against the Ravens at home. Last season against bottom ten secondaries,
Mahomes had at least two hundred and ninety one passing
yards in all three of those home games. So again,

(47:32):
for a team like Baltimore, who lost the fifth most
passing yards per game, I would look to the over
on the Mahomes passing yards prop.

Speaker 2 (47:40):
So those are some of the props that I like
the most. Go Yankees today. I will be watching at
three o'clock Eastern time, and we've got this game going
on right now in Dublin. For everybody tuning in, thanks
so much. Make sure to subscribe and like on the
YouTube page. It helps a lot. On Wayitter Talk. We
will see you all next week here. I'm last call.
Good luck to those bets