Last Call LIVE | Saturday MLB Picks | NHL Playoff Predictions | Preakness Stakes Best Bets | May 17th

There is an absolutely loaded betting late for Saturday with MLB, NHL Playoffs & the 150th Preakness Stakes We have what the market moves have been and where can we take advantage to win!

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
You last call. Hey, it might be eleven am Saturday
Eastern time, but it's last call because some games are
about to start. Full Baseball card the Prickness, got some UFC,
also some NHL. We'll even take an advance look at
some NBA coming up tomorrow on Sunday and later this week.
This is last call every Saturday, eleven am Eastern Live
here and wait to Talk TV. I am Steve Merrill,

(00:21):
filling in for Aerials. She'll be back next week, don't
you worry. And we start off the show as we
always do with Johnny the Greek, the Steam Report. Johnny,
let's get right to it. What are you looking at here?
On Saturday?

Speaker 2 (00:32):
Busy, Busy, Busy already dropped premium play for subscribers.

Speaker 3 (00:35):
I'll give that out right now.

Speaker 2 (00:37):
In w NBA Las Vegas Aces plus four and a
half and four. That's Las Vegas Aces plus four and
a half and four. We are starting to bet. WNBA
fired a couple bets yesterday as well. Good night, coming
off a nice night yesterday overall, obviously, tomorrow is the

(00:57):
NBA game. Nothing to report on that game yet. But
what I have been seeing is the public accounts that
are betting it. They're already taking the points with the Nuggets.
They like the dog getting all the end points against
Oklahoma City. Personally, I disagree. I think the Thunder end
up blowing that team out. I'm hoping the money line drops,
it could get below three hundred, three hundred or better.

(01:19):
I'm betting Oklahoma City. I think they're a great home
team to get that W tomorrow. But that's tomorrow today.
It's not much going on in the NHL either. What
I can share there is all one sided Dallas money,
all from the betting public. Wise, guys haven't gotten involved
on a side or the total yet, so all the

(01:40):
risk is coming from the betting public, which is betting Dallas.
They're parlaying Dallas with a lot of the baseball today.
They're parlaying Dallas with tomorrow's NBA. I'm seeing Dallas and
Denver plus the point parlays already, so they don't really
want to lay the minus one fifty one fifty five
whatever it is on Dallas right now. Instead, they're trying

(02:02):
to get it cheaper by parlay in it. Everything else
is pretty much just Major League Baseball. I gave out
two free UFL totals yesterday or the day before they
go today and tomorrow. I think we went under forty
and a half Birmingham Saint Louis, under forty and a
half Birmingham Saint Louis, and then over forty two and

(02:24):
a half Michigan Houston over forty two and a half
Michigan Houston. So that's under in the Birmingham game, over
in the Michigan game. Also Las Vegas Aces that went
out as a three percent Play two subscribers. Otherwise, it's
been all baseball, baseball, baseball, and it's going to be
a busy day of MMA two. UFC starts one pm

(02:44):
Pacific over here at the Apex.

Speaker 3 (02:48):
So yeah, good, good day to fire.

Speaker 1 (02:51):
Yeah, Johnny, I love it. I mentioned all those sports
and you let off with WNBA. Didn't Eve realize it started?
And then you're throw in UFL. My goodness, what are
you doing to us? Hey, UFCO, we're not talking about
it too much in the show today. Anything jump out
to you there?

Speaker 2 (03:04):
Yeah, here's what I'm looking at it in the UFC.
It's one of those cards that looks to be like
a favorite heavy at least that's what the initial line
moves look like. It seems like that's what the public's
on vent most of these favorites timea. I'm in the
parlace because it's kind of like the calm after the storm,
after the week after the pay per views. It's usually
like almost not a letdown car. But it's kind of

(03:28):
like now the UFC is more or less aiming towards
the Expo coming up in June. That's the next big
event where it's the week here in Las Vegas, the
International Fight Week. It's a really big event. So between
now and then, the cards aren't the greatest, but there's
always betting opportunities. The problem with tonight's card is the

(03:48):
main event and co main event are chalk chalk chalk heavy.
I mean, in the main event, Morales is like a
minus seven hundred or so against Burns, and it's warranted.
I mean, this is Morales's coming out party. He's been
perfect in the UFC. This is a big step up
based on strength of schedule. But he's catching Burns at
the right time of his career. I don't think Burn's
gonna be able to take him down. Morales's takedown defense

(04:10):
is just too good, and more importantly, he's gonna have
a huge reach advantage here, gonna have an age advantage.
Just too much speed, too much strength. I think he
takes care of Burns. I kind of lean over the
three and a half there as well. Burns is durable,
he's rugged. I think he should be able to take
what Morales gives them at least four couple rounds, and.

Speaker 3 (04:32):
It's at three and a half.

Speaker 2 (04:33):
I think it gets there in the comin event.

Speaker 1 (04:35):
The same thing.

Speaker 2 (04:35):
Belotto is like minus seven or eight hundred. I don't
think Blato should be that big of a favorite against Craig,
even though Craig's lost three straight fights. The bottom line
is the strength of schedule is not even close. I mean,
Craig's full elite guys in that weight class. Belotto, it's
more on potential, and with Craig, you know, with his
submission game, he's always live. The problem is he's at

(04:56):
the tail end of his career. So it's one of
those not gatekeepers. But it's a name you could get
on your resume. And it's the same thing for the
Morales fight, where it's a younger guy able to get
somebody with a big name on their resume. But I
do think Craig's tough enough to withstand the one and
a half round total.

Speaker 1 (05:16):
I know it's being bet on there. I like the over.

Speaker 2 (05:18):
I think he could survive seven and a half rounds
with Blato, so I kind of lean over in both
the main and the comine event. And I do think
both favorites do get the w but I don't think
there's too much value a premium that I'll give out
for free. I did bet Jared Gordon over Moist Cis.
I think Gordon just a much better fighter here, just

(05:40):
a lot more well rounded. If he wasn't coming off
that loss, which was a split decision in his last
fight against Hasperant, he would be a two to one
favorite in this spot, but now it looks like he's
only had one win in his last three fights. Because
that won no contest against King Green, and because of
that you were able to get him at a slight discount.
I don't like that Tiago's a lot younger than them,

(06:03):
but I think Gordon's got more than enough to get
it done. I also have a five percent going. Can't
give that out obviously, but it's a decent car live
dog for you. I'll give you a live dog real quickly,
Dustin Stulfus over Roosebill ed Roosebis probably should win this fight, obviously,
but I just don't think the price is warranted. He's

(06:25):
just way too big of a favorite against Stulfus with
his back against the wall. I think it's one of
those live dogs. Again. When you're taking that kind of
plus money, you're gonna throw that ticket out a lot
more than you're gonna cash it. But at almost a
two to one dog, we just don't break even. He's
got to win this fight one out of three times,
and I think it's more like sixty forty in favor

(06:47):
of Rusbiev. I don't think he should be more than
a minus one fifty favorite one sixty favorite.

Speaker 1 (06:51):
So I do think there's a little bit.

Speaker 2 (06:53):
Of value on this Stulfus side. I haven't fired yet,
but I'm hoping that line goes a little bit higher,
so I could get plus two hundred or greater. It's
got that minus plus one ninety five range right now,
but we should be able to get plus two hundred again.
I just think that's a plus TV bet usually not
going to cash too many of those.

Speaker 3 (07:13):
You'll throw it out six.

Speaker 2 (07:14):
Out of ten times even when you're running hot, but
you still have an edge even at that rate, because
again he should be about plus one forty plus, I
mean plus one fifty able to get plus two hundred.
Got to take that bet pretty much early on what
I'm looking at here. Otherwise I'm a little heavy chalk
lean chalk as well. But again I've been mostly trying

(07:38):
to get the baseball knocked out and then going to
dive into MMA in another hour.

Speaker 1 (07:42):
Yeah, and that's a perfect example. I mean, baseball is
the same way. It's a money line sport. You're talking
about a pick you like tonight that has value, has
a long term expected edge, but it probably won't.

Speaker 2 (07:49):
Win, Yeah, exactly, Like I know I'm going to throw
that ticket out six out of ten times, so not
even fifty to fifty.

Speaker 3 (07:57):
But it's still at a price. I swear. I think
I'm getting the best of it.

Speaker 2 (08:02):
And as long as you could keep placing those bets,
you'll do good over time. Like if it was the
only bet I'm ever going to place, and I'm not
betting ever again, I wouldn't bet it, you know, But
the fact that I'm going to bet again tomorrow, next week,
next month, next year. I'm just looking to place good bets,
trusting that as long as I could do that, when
the dust settles, I'll be up money.

Speaker 1 (08:20):
You know, well, that's the long term versus short term approach,
because if.

Speaker 3 (08:23):
It's sixty any one outcome.

Speaker 1 (08:26):
It should be plus one fifty. If you're getting into
plus two hundred, that's a thirty three percent you gotta win.
So once again, that's a seven percent edge long term,
and that's the difference between a short term better who loses,
or a long term investor like Jetta the Greek Johnny
will let you get back to working that baseball card.
What else you got going on at wager talk dot com.

Speaker 2 (08:42):
Yeah, they'll have that baseball be up with a nice
four percent. I haven't fired a five percent. I fired
I think one five percent so far in Major League
Baseball and that ended up pushing. But I do have
a really isolating, a strong play that I like in
baseball that car will probably be up with in the
next thirty minutes.

Speaker 3 (08:58):
I have my MMA call.

Speaker 2 (09:00):
Like I said, I gave out the UFL for free,
but that's already sent out to subscribers. WNBA you got
the free play as well, so it's all about MMA
and Major League Baseball today and we'll approach NBA tomorrow,
so head on over. I should have some free plays
on my page as well, so I'll make sure you
check that out.

Speaker 1 (09:20):
Once again, Johnny the Greek wager Talk dot Com, yet
another reason to get an all Sports all Access subscription
because you're not only the major sports, but WNBA, UFL, MMA, Baseball.
Of course NBA is still going as well NHL. Anything
he finds, he puts up All Sports All Access, and
don't forget this weekend. You can still get on board
that all access specially at wager talk dot com, which

(09:41):
is one year, three hundred and sixty five straight days
and nights at every play release for any caper you want.
For eleven eighty eight. It's not only two thousand dollars,
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(10:01):
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dollars a day. No promo code needed this weekend wager
talk dot com. All right, we'll get to the preakness

(10:23):
in a moment. We touched on that NBA Game seven.
By the way, I did do a solo video for
Game seven Thunder Nuggets. It's up right now, and of
course I did it nice and early on Friday afternoon,
two days in advance, and then last night on Friday
it was announced Aaron Gordon will likely not play with
a hamstring injury. So that line has gone from seven
and a half up to eight even eight and a
half in some spots. I just wanted to point that out.
But if you want a deep dive into Game seven

(10:44):
Thunder and Nuggets, it is on wager Talk TV right here.
Make sure you click subscribe. You click that bell for instance,
alert when these free play videos go up each and
every day. All right, let's talk some Preakness. I know
everyone's excited about the horse racing part of the Triple
Crown continues. I guess hosts. Two weeks ago we did
the Derby, I guest host wager Talk. Today Wednesday we
talked to Preaknance with Sean Alvaress. I got a guest
host again and have Sean on today on Saturday. And Sean,

(11:07):
the Preakness is right around the corner. We touched on
it a few days ago. Let's dive back into what
are you looking at today?

Speaker 4 (11:14):
Yeah, and with that being said, I would in three weeks,
I would keep that Saturday off your schedule. I assume
we're gonna have you back for the Belmon as well.
But yeah, I mean, you know, the talk of this
one hundred and fiftieth running of the Preakness is we
don't necessarily get the Kentucky Derby winner into this race
with you know, not going to have that that Triple
Crown opportunity going into this. But it's still a two

(11:36):
million dollar perse. The winner still takes home one point
two million dollars and it's still the second leg of
the Triple Crown, so you know, it may not be
a Kentucky Derby winner. You know that type of history
and lore going into it. But you still get your
name etched in history and take home a nice little
paycheck and trophy if you win this running of the
Preakness stakes.

Speaker 1 (11:58):
So you mentioned goal Orient in a wager talk today.
I'll let people go back and watch the Wednesday episode.
They can get some insight into the number one horse
on the rail there. But you got another horse you
want to talk about here in the race today, the
number six horse. What are you looking at there? Yeah?

Speaker 4 (12:11):
I really like the way that River Thames is kind
of coming into this race. And you know, we spoke
about the fact that the trainer and the ownership group
on the Kentucky Derby winner, Sovereignty are skipping the Preakness.
As you know they they've spoke about it's really not
his spot. He probably also needed a little bit of rest.
You know, they're doing right by the horse and take
taking care of him rather than you know, shoving him

(12:33):
into a race. And you know that leads us to
Todd Pletcher and the Windstar Farm ownership group of this
number six River Thames, who had enough points to go
into the Kentucky Derby and when you start training, you know,
thoroughbred horses and owning horses that cost you know, upwards
of a million dollars, your number one goal is to
win the Kentucky Derby. And again they did right by

(12:55):
the horse giving him a little bit of time off.
He looked a little bit tired in the Grade one
blue Grass and his start the high r before that,
So Todd Pledger really likes his running style going into
this Preakness race, probably needed a little bit of time off.
So you know, we're gonna look at the number two
Journalism as the morning line and probably the post time
favorite when those when those gates open, and you know,

(13:18):
the really big question on him is what's he going
to look like wheeling back in fourteen days. It's not
necessarily a you know, a winning type trainer angle or
something that Michael McCarthy, the trainer of the number two
Journalism does. So that's kind of the knock or the
question I have about that favorite. I like that they
gave a little bit of time off to this number

(13:38):
six River Tams. We're getting a little bit of a
good price because you know, a lot of public's gonna
be on you know, the number two journalism and also
Sandman who ran in the Derby. So I think we're
going to get a good price on River Tams didn't
necessarily look good in the Bluegrass, but I think he
was tired. Give him a little bit of an excuse
there and hopefully he can fire a big number for
us later on today.

Speaker 1 (13:59):
And Jack Falk the live chat says it a forty
to one long shot, just cashing race to today. I
don't know if you saw that or not. That's crazy,
he said, and obviously parimutual betting. How many people had
him if he went off forty to one. Also, we
got a question here, I don't know about the secretary connections.
We joked about this a few weeks ago in the Derby. MATC.
Hudson is asking any secretariat edges. I mean, in the Derby,

(14:20):
every single horse was a lineage of secretariat. I don't
know if that's still the case here. Maybe there's one
or two that's not. Yeah.

Speaker 4 (14:26):
I mean, like, you know, like we alluded to in
the last show, there's quite a lot of secretariat lineage
or folds that have gone down the you know, from
year in and year out. But you know, if I'm
looking towards any kind of Secretariat edge, it would be
you know more in three weeks when we go, you know,
a much further distance, and it actually leans more towards

(14:47):
you know, those speed type horses that can you know,
run quick and run fast often like Secretariat did, or
even like you know, the likes of American Pharaoh and Justify.

Speaker 1 (14:56):
And once again you the preet and it's the shortest race,
the Belmont in three weeks you're talking about as the
longest race, and that's why a lot of horses sit
out this one because they want that strong endurance race
that's coming up around the corner on the way out.
You know, we talk about a pick to win. It's
a small field, but as we always say, you're gonna
get your value with the exacts and the trifecta is
and putting small wagers in for big reward. I've noticed,

(15:19):
if I'm not mistaken, you're kind of avoiding the favorite
here in these round Exact is trying to get that
payout up again. So I'll ask you a couple of things.
What exacts do you like? And also how worried are
you leaving the pre race favorite Journalism the number two
horse off the card.

Speaker 4 (15:34):
I think you're we're talking about a different race, right.

Speaker 1 (15:38):
I'm sorry, Oh, you're looking at race twelve. You've got
an exact afforce there, got you? Well, let me ask
you before we get to race twelve. That's not for
the Preakness. You're right, what's the Freakness? Maybe race thirteen.
I'm not sure what number it is, but yeah, before
we get to a bonus race for you the exact
how worried are you about leaving maybe Journalism off. I'm
obviously there's not a lot of fat value with them
and you know, just over even money.

Speaker 4 (15:57):
Yeah, you know, and we'll kind of talk about it
in the twelve the race when I am you know,
kind of leaning away from at least the first two
betting choices. But you know, Journalism is he's a well
deserving morning line favorite. He's the best three year old
in this crop. Yes, there's question marks that you can,
you know, ask yourself to try and punch holes in
his form, to try and you know, make a little

(16:18):
bit more money on the win end. But you know, again,
you know, he's easily the best horse in the field
if he runs anywhere near his race they ran in
the Kentucky Derby in this Preakness stakes later today. He's
easily the horse to beat, and he probably wins the
race by you know, a pole or a half a pole.
It probably won't be very close. So you know, in that,

(16:39):
in that kind of sense, I am gonna play journalism
on top. I'm not gonna let him beat me. But
I also like to, you know, try and leave off
maybe second or third choices and and and like or
reach for prices that I like as well. So with
that being said, I do not like him on the
win end, but I do like the number nine Gostre
at a big old price twenty to one maybe to

(17:01):
clunk up into that second or third spot to round
up your exact asm trifectas. You know, everybody wants to
win this race, and so you know, whether it's jockey's
making the wrong move, whether it's horses just getting a
little bit tired sometimes, you know, jockeys are a little
bit more focused on well. I got to keep you know,
I got to always know where journalism is or you know,

(17:21):
I got to keep these leaders in touch. I can't
let them go you know, too far, too early. So
you know, maybe that number nine goss, you're at twenty
to one, can kind of clunk up where you know,
it gives us a little bit more value if that,
you know, morning line favorite journalism wins.

Speaker 1 (17:36):
And so once get avoiding pay Billy at twenty to one.
But you're looking at the nine horse. Maybe is the
long shot they could get into some top three exactors
and it's top two exact as top three trifect is there.
So once again risk a little win a lot with
those round robins, and you've got one for us in
race twelve, which I guess is a race Before that,
I was alluding to, what are you looking at in
this one? The undercard?

Speaker 4 (17:56):
Yeah, so you know, kind of like I spoke about
in the previous segment is you know, I'm gonna try
and beat favorites where I feel like I can punch
holes into their form, and that favorites the thirteen Shakari
at five to two. He is or she is the
horse to beat in this race. Sorry, he is the
horse to beat in this race. But you know that

(18:16):
thirteen posts is not necessarily an easy post position to overcome,
especially on this turf course. And while he doesn't necessarily
need the lead he's not gonna come too far back.
There's not a lot of speed in this race. And
when there's not a lot of speed in this race
and they're going a rout of ground on the turf,
they kind of bunch up. And so I really think
this thirteen is gonna be drifted out wide, probably be

(18:39):
wide throughout. So I do like prices underneath. I think
the one with Louis Sias can save all the ground.
I also think he can be a little bit more
forwardly placed at twelve to one, I like the fore
neeat at eight to one. I think he's running into
good form. I think this distance and this race kind
of hits his form between the eyes and the number ten.

(19:00):
Fort Washington is another horse that is one to beat
with Junior Alvarado coming out, you know, winning his last
race at Goldstream. So I'm gonna kind of throw out
the first and second choice up top. I'm gonna use
the one, the four, and the ten up top, and
then I'm gonna use the one, four, six, ten, and
thirteen underneath for a dollar exacta, it's only gonna cost

(19:21):
you twelve dollars to punch. And like, like I alluded
to with you know a twelve to one and eight
to one at ten to one, and if we can
get the favorite off the board, I definitely think this
can pay. And you know we're one for one. We
got the EXACTA two weeks ago. So like I said,
if we get this one today, definitely clear out your
schedule in three weeks.

Speaker 1 (19:41):
I'll pay for that three week package too, because all
it takes is thirty dollars to day to get everything
that Sean has, including the undercard. You just got a
taste of it right there, Sean's full Pimlico card including
the Preakness and all these bonus wagers, exotics and everything.
Just thirty dollars right now, right at wager Talk. Sean
tell us about it.

Speaker 4 (19:58):
Yeah, so you can get all of my full card
selections as far as kind of use it more of
a guide for yourself. It's my you know, one through
four selections of each and every race on the Pimlico card.
But you can also just kind of get my you know,
best bet wagers where I see value in you know,
daily doubles, pick threes and exactness throughout the card. And

(20:18):
we did speak about two races have gone off that
package really starts in race five, so you're not missing anything.
If you feel like you're getting in late now, it's
gonna be available for probably the next hour and a
half before that Race five starts. So get in now
and hopefully we can take down this Pimlico card.

Speaker 1 (20:37):
Awesome. Yeah, live viewers take advantage of that right now.
It's not too late to get in. Get the full
card for thirty dollars. And even you ever watched this
on the replay, you still got a couple hours to
get Sean Alvarez is full Pimlico not just FREAKINGUS, but
Pimlico card today on Saturday at wager talk dot com.
All right, let's keep it rolling. Do we have my man?
The press got to talk some hockey. You got to
have a Canadian on there. He is, It's Saturday Press.

(20:59):
You and I have done very very few shat Saturday shows.
It's going to break the internet. It's gonna break it.

Speaker 3 (21:03):
Wow, Listen, Saturday is shavas and uh like John Goodman
and the Big Lebowski said, you know, I don't I
don't work on I don't roll.

Speaker 1 (21:15):
No, you don't roll on Saturday. It's exactly right, I don't.

Speaker 3 (21:18):
I don't bowl on shovers. I don't roll. No, he says,
I thought.

Speaker 1 (21:23):
He said Roll all these years. Is it bowl?

Speaker 3 (21:26):
Yes?

Speaker 1 (21:28):
Better? I think Roll is great. God, that's a great
movie I was on. That was on late about a
month ago. As I'm flipping around, and it was right
when they went to Larry Seller's house, not to crack
that Larry Sellers near the in and out Burger on Fifth.
All right, man, let's get.

Speaker 3 (21:44):
I mean, listen, a great movie. I'll tell you know.
Slap Shot is a movie that I actually I want
to see it again.

Speaker 1 (21:51):
And look right behind me. The Hanson brother is right
there under the Vegas Son if you look close enough.
I don't know if you've ever known that. No, look a.

Speaker 3 (21:59):
Look at what I'm doing, dude, Check out what I'm doing.
Like I'm getting rid of the green screen.

Speaker 1 (22:05):
Oh man, Yeah, it's been on my to do list
for like five years, but I doubt I'll get there
this summer.

Speaker 3 (22:10):
I'm getting rid of the green screen. And I got
a hundred. So I'm on the phone with Barnaby yesterday
and and I'm hammering shit into the wall right like
you know, I'm putting this up all my pictures and
Barnaby's like, oh, tho's cool. How many pieces do you have?

(22:30):
And I'm like, oh, I have more than you for sure.
I don't even have close. Dude, I got one hundred
and twenty pieces. Is he a collector, Yeah, he's in
the three hundreds or something.

Speaker 1 (22:43):
So yeah, I've got a hundred and some in a
cabinet right near here that's been there for about a
decade and I haven't touched this for five years. Like
I think I've added a couple of baseball hats since
I did the NASCAR Show five years ago.

Speaker 3 (22:53):
But it works right, Yeah, plain green screen, blocked green screen.

Speaker 1 (22:58):
Yeah, it's funny. I didn't even realize I was a
green screens we started moving that actually looks normal, say,
I know, until your room went sideways like a three
dimensional etching. Hey we got we got a game? What's
six today? In hockey?

Speaker 3 (23:10):
Yeah? Baby? Firstly, firstly, what a performance by the Leafs.
I mean, come on, man, they lose three in a row,
they get dominated in the in the game five, they
lose six to one. They go to Florida and they
played a perfect hockey game start to finish. That was

(23:31):
a statement win. I feel good, guys. I'm loving you
all in the chat room. Thanks for the kind words. Man.
My NHL season, Steve has been one for the ages.
I'm up sixty units, give or take two. I think
I'm up fifty seven or fifty eight on the season.
I'm seventeen and eight in the playoffs for my clients, Dude,

(23:52):
it's been I don't want I don't want hockey to end, Like,
can we just start it up immediately right after the
stand Cup. It's been an amazing run. And tomorrow night,
Game seven, I'm gonna be watching Game seven in my
hot tub outside the game. I have an outdoor TV,

(24:15):
an outdoor cabana. It's gonna be spectacular.

Speaker 1 (24:18):
Thought you might be there. I was gonna ask you
if you're gonna be there, if Carmon or Andrews coming.

Speaker 3 (24:22):
So it's interesting, and I know none of this is
actual betting infobic whatever, but it's interesting. It's interesting because
I have the ability to get my hands on tickets.

Speaker 1 (24:33):
I would assume you do. That's why I'm a little surprised.
But the hot jump sounds pretty good.

Speaker 3 (24:36):
And I and I can get tickets at costs, so
I'm not even paying like on StubHub or something. I
can only go to the first game of each series.
I don't have the emotional ability to sit there like
if it was I need to pace, I need to
throw shit, I need to break shit. I need to

(24:57):
scream and yell. I need to take my shirt off.
Then I need to put it back on. It's a
good emotional head off that I need to put it back.

Speaker 1 (25:05):
It's a good emotional head suppressed because if they win,
you're happy. If they lose, you're a little less sad
because at least you weren't there. So it's not it's
not a terrible emotional hedge. I've done that before over
the years in different sports that I follow. So yeah,
that's that's tomorrow on Sunday. If you want to talk
about it, we can. If you want to save it
for tomorrow, we'll talk.

Speaker 3 (25:25):
About it all dude. How about the Knicks though, for
all the people, Tokyo Brandon Leaves have not won the
Cups since color photography, nor have the Knicks.

Speaker 1 (25:35):
We need a three screen, We gotta get a record.

Speaker 3 (25:38):
Tokyo Brandon, New York has no excuse. There should be
no sport that New York plays that they don't win
in a fifty year period.

Speaker 1 (25:50):
Yeah, before I was born. You might have just been born.
You're a couple of years older than me, but yeah,
it was right before I was born. They won the
NBA Final. I saw that the other week. I was like, man,
that really puts it in for that. It's been over
fifty years. So look, the Leafs are a dog tomorrow?
Is that warranted?

Speaker 3 (26:08):
You know, Steve these questions I get a lot in
my amateur life, like when friends are like, oh my god,
the leafs are a dog. How is that possible? Or
is that the right line? Every line is the right
line at that very moment. Right now, Florida is minus
one thirty. That is the right line. If money gets

(26:29):
bet and Florida becomes plus one ten, well at that
time that would be the right line. For all you
people who don't understand how this works, the right the
line is always right.

Speaker 1 (26:40):
No that I know what you're saying. I would disagree
with that, pres because I've made money. You're no, you
and I have made money for thirty years. Because the
line is not always right. So I know what I'm saying.

Speaker 3 (26:51):
But the way I look at it is the line
is always right as far as the market goes. It's
that doesn't mean we can't advantage of the line being
I wouldn't say incorrect. I would say valuable.

Speaker 1 (27:10):
I would use the word efficient, maybe valuable, And yeah,
I would say it's efficient. It's not right because you
and I wouldn't have a long term edge of it
was always right. Fair Enough, but I know what you're saying.
I get the point fair enough. But yeah, but that
the home team, they're a home dog. I mean, what
do you And also I see the total. You got
fives out there overduice five and a halfs underdue heavy
obviously file the very key number.

Speaker 3 (27:31):
We have a game tonight. We'll talk about that after.
Let me take apart this game quick, right off the bat,
the under is the play. Five and a half is
the number. Look even at five, I would look to
take the under. And there's no reason why not. Why Like,
don't overthink the stuff when you look at these two
teams and they're matchups against each other. You know, two

(27:53):
years ago they played in the Stanley Cup playoffs. They
went five games, All five games went under the total.
In the last few you had two nothing in the
last game six to one in the game before that,
but that was a total anomaly and two nothing the
game before that. Florida and Toronto liked to play these
hard checking, tight hockey games, and in game seven or

(28:17):
Game six, any type of elimination game, I like to
look at the under now I would The way I
would attack this is to see if you can find
that window to bet the over going into the third period.
So in an ideal situation, you would take under five
and a half and then it's one nothing going into
the third and the total would be, say three and

(28:40):
a half, and then I would maybe look to take
the over there. The only problem I have with unders
in these elimination games is if it's three to one
or four to one, the goalie could be pulled to
five straight minutes. And that's why I like the over
later and the under early. But I really do think

(29:02):
this is gonna be a tight checking game. I like
the Leafs here too. I think it was a huge
statement game against Florida. This team could have rolled over
and died, and instead they played their most perfect hockey
game in the entire Matthews Martner era. Last night. Joseph
Wallers played outstanding as well. You know, if I can
get the Leafs as a dog, I would go there.

(29:23):
But I do prefer under the total of five and
a half, and I think we get at most a
three to two hockey game. It's gonna be a hell
of a hockey game Tomorrow night, that's for sure.

Speaker 1 (29:34):
It's a game seven, seven thirty Eastern Sunday Night. They
put the NBA game on it, three thirty Eastern games
seven to morrow thunder Nuggets. And you know why, you
know you got the spotlight.

Speaker 3 (29:44):
It's because the NBA is scared. You remember when the
NFL would not put games, you know, on Sunday night
because Baseball owns Sunday night.

Speaker 1 (29:56):
Yeah, crazy to think.

Speaker 3 (29:57):
Right now the NFL puts games up again, the World
Series on Sunday Night. I love to see that the
NHL is taking over from the NBA with Sunday Night.

Speaker 1 (30:09):
I saw that the top one hundred live viewed shows
in twenty twenty four, not a single one of the
top one hundred was an NBA game last year, and
I think like ninety were football games, like seventy summer
NFL games like ten of the top twelve. But yeah,
the NBA has got issues. Trust me, I've talked about
that a lot of my daily videos here on wager
Talk TV. And load management has killed that sport like hockey. Man,

(30:31):
old school hockey is still alive.

Speaker 3 (30:33):
Do you attribute that to Kawhi or is that like
pre Kawhi because he really felt like the poster child
of load management well.

Speaker 1 (30:42):
And he had a lot of injuries. He was also
the poster child of injuries, you know. I mean, it's
like he was never healthy. And I think part of
it is, first of all, these guys make way too
much money now, so they don't need to play. They
get paid regardless. And then also they're incredibly athletic and fast.
It's the same problem in the NFL has with the injuries,
the head injuries. These guys are bigger, stronger, and faster
than ever in the history of mankind. Saw an article
yesterday Nick Van Exel is preaching they need to go

(31:05):
back to more high tops because these Achille injuries are
happening because of the low cuts that Kobe Bryant started with.
I thought that was interesting, So you.

Speaker 3 (31:12):
Know, I wonder, I wonder, I mean, that asked to
be a scientific thing, Like I don't know if you can.

Speaker 1 (31:18):
They had numbers in there. They had a science thing
that I coulda or like they do rupture like ten
percent faster like without the ankle support.

Speaker 3 (31:25):
So speaking of science, so you know, I gulf a ton.

Speaker 2 (31:30):
I.

Speaker 3 (31:30):
You know during COVID, you weren't taking the flag out,
so you put the flag in so people wouldn't touch
the flag.

Speaker 1 (31:39):
Good God.

Speaker 3 (31:40):
Since COVID people have left the flag in, it's now
a thing. The flag remains in.

Speaker 1 (31:45):
You talking about when you're on the green putting even Yeah,
they did a study that's messed up on.

Speaker 3 (31:50):
Whether you have a greater chance of sinking like a
four foot pot with the flag in or out. What
do you think the answer.

Speaker 1 (31:58):
Is, I guarantee you what they put it's a better
chance of sinking it because it'll I've seen it bounce
off the stick like you know when guys chip in
and stuff a shorter put My intuition is that it could.
It could knock it out if it's going too slow.
So what are the results?

Speaker 3 (32:13):
It was? It was Sean Alvarez. I'm curious. I hate
when people believe the flagon. The question, Sean, is is
it better to have it in or out on short potts.
I think they were putts withinside of eight feet.

Speaker 1 (32:27):
Yeah, I'd say taking it outs better.

Speaker 3 (32:29):
Okay, I'll answer after we do the Winnipeg Oh tees.

Speaker 1 (32:32):
That's a tease teas for Game six tonight Winnipeg and Dallas.
Winnipeg was up what three to one? Dallas got it
on the road and now they're back at home. They're
actually a dollar thirty favorite here in most spots, so.

Speaker 3 (32:44):
The other way around, my brother, Dallas was up three
to one.

Speaker 1 (32:47):
I'm sorry, yeah, I know it was three one. I've watched
five seconds of hockey this playoffs and it was actually
this game the other night, and it set up in
the corner three to one, and yet it had to
be three one because it's Dallas three to two. As
I'm looking at the Odds Logic Live Odds screen right now.
But you're right, yeah, Dallas three to one. Winnipeg won
at home. Now they got to win on the road
as a dog. Do they force a game seven?

Speaker 3 (33:10):
I don't know, Steve, I mean, like the mine is right,
they don't. Well, let me tell you this. I'm going
to give you my play. I have a client play
for everybody. It's up at wager Dog gift to pay
for it. It's free to your listeners. I like the under, Steve.
I'm just going to stick to the program here. I

(33:31):
want to take unders in these close games. Last night
we had a game six. It was such a stoke
cold under. It was ridiculous. Here. You got Winnipeg forty
and fifty one to the under on the year end playoffs,
Dallas thirty nine forty eight to the under on the
year on the playoffs. Head to head? Are you ready
for the Steve head to head? In their last ten games,

(33:53):
how many went under? Take a guess eight eight nine, nine,
nine under And the only game that went over was
a five to two victory by Dallas with with an
empty nettert At there was yeah, with an empty netter.

(34:15):
So why are we sitting here trying to overthink the stuff?
I mean, these two teams have already defined how they
want to play. They've defined how they want to play
against everybody, and they definitely have defined how they want
to play against each other. The only thing that worries
me here ultimately is that hell Back has just been
absolutely horrible on the road, and it defies logic, Steve.

(34:43):
It makes absolutely no sense. And I know that when
you look at pitchers in baseball and you sit there
and you think, gokay, you know, well Kershaw is incredible
at home and shitty on the road or I just
made that up, But you know whoever is great at
home shitty on the road, discript and see on the
road and at home. For Connor Hellibach is at a

(35:05):
level that we've never seen in any sport. It would
literally be the equivalent of like you know, I can,
I don't have an analogy. Forget analogies, Andrew Wash, I
love you too, brother. The bottom line here is why
are we overthinking this shit? Take the under, Take the
Undertake the under if you have a chance to take

(35:28):
the over in the third period, like I said on
the Leaf game, so for instance, it's zero zero going
into the third total is two and a half. Put
half the under. Bet on that over and protect yourself
from five minutes of an empty net opportunity. But my
client play is the under, and my client plays have

(35:49):
been freaking gold. So that's where we're at. My brother
and the answer mark.

Speaker 1 (35:58):
Because it's the equivalent to free throws in playoff games
with the NCAA Tournament that'll cost you there. It's had
empty net goal and hockey kind of like free throws
laden basketball games. But yeah, so eight foot putter less,
is it more likely to go? And with the flag
in the pole? Still I want the answer.

Speaker 3 (36:13):
So I was convinced it was in the hole because
it would hit the flag and go in if you
went too fast. It is not it is without the
flag because when you hit those fast putts, like when
you talk long distance and you're thinking it'll slow it down,
it could also ricochet it out good. So they did,

(36:35):
like they set up a machine so that it wasn't
a guy putting, and the ball would roll down the
machine at the hole, so it was always the same base,
always in the same spot, always down the same route,
and they did it a thousand times and it ended
up very very close. I mean, it's minuscule difference, but

(36:58):
it was ultimately better with the flag out, which surprised
the hell out of me.

Speaker 5 (37:04):
Steve.

Speaker 1 (37:06):
Yeah, I mean there's two ways to look at it.
You could think they've been doing that for one hundred
years because even before science they figured it was better,
or they also you know, thought maybe it was blocking
the ball, so they took it out back in the day.
But that is interesting. I wonder if being at an
angle down though, if that negates the study a little bit,
since that's not how a real putt comes in, since
it's coming in level. But there interesting. So you're saying

(37:26):
minuscule results that it's a little bit better to have
the flag out of the hole, correct, right, So.

Speaker 3 (37:32):
I will tell you. I will tell you from a
massive results perspective. I suck at golf. So if you
want to win a golf tournament and you have to
find a partner, I ain't the guy. I'm an eighteen handicap.

Speaker 1 (37:47):
Steve Merrill, Well, I was a thirty back in the day,
and I was actually great for tournaments because I was
getting two strokes on every hole and I would occasionally
have that par, which is impossible to beat when you're
a thirty handicap. So like, there's two ways to look
at that. You gotta get your handicap down a little
bit more. You'll actually be a great tournament partner because
then you're getting a couple of strokes every hole.

Speaker 3 (38:05):
What you're saying is totally incorrect. Steven, Can I tell
you why or we're done? Whatever you want?

Speaker 1 (38:10):
We can tell me why, because I'd love to know why.

Speaker 3 (38:12):
I'll tell you. I'll tell you why. The handicap concept
in golf is a it's a great idea conceptually, but
it doesn't work. And the reason is this. I got
a friend who's a two handicap. I'm an eighteen handicap,
and he always says to me, let's play against each
other for money. We'll play on our handicaps. I'm a two,

(38:34):
you're at eighteen. Hell no, because an eighteen handicap can
so that means you're shooting ninety. So a two handicap
means you're shooting seventy four. A two handicap almost never
shoots eighty four. He's almost never ten worse than his handicap.

(38:57):
We're an eighteen handicap, can shoot a one oh six
on any given day correct. There is too much room
for error on the big handicaps the small handicaps, if
you're a two of three or four a one, you're
always within six of your game. When you're a shit golfer,

(39:18):
it's a twenty stroke difference. There are many days I'll
go out and hit an eighty eight and the next
day I had a one oh eight.

Speaker 1 (39:26):
Correct. That's one hundred percent not what I was talking about.
If you listen to what I said, I said tournament
play and the example I use. I didn't played for
twenty twos, right. My dad was a scratch golfer and
I was like a thirty handicap. I played for a
couple of years. We played in the member guest the
two of us. Everybody thought Steve Junior was the two
handicap until they saw the t shots. They realized I wasn't.

(39:46):
But he was getting no strokes the entire two day
tournament because he was the best golfer in the field.
I was the worst. So every hole I was getting
two strokes and occasionally, like one out of five holes,
I'd have a par, which is like an eagle. It
was impossible to beat. Otherwise he'd clean up the mess
and every hole. So I'm talking about for like a
member guest or like a two group, it shouldn't be
a tournament. Just like a two man, you pair up

(40:07):
a terrible handicap with a great handicap like your friend,
you're unbeatable. Almost it's almost unfair. But like I said,
you're not bad enough for that to work. That you
gotta get to like the thirties, man, you got to
tank more.

Speaker 3 (40:17):
Tokyo Brandon is dying to get on. Dude, Thanks for
having us. This was so fun. I really appreciate you
doing the show. Shout out to Andy Lang as well
the great work him and you are doing on a
wager Talk today. I hope to be announcing my new
show sometime in the next couple of awesome but really, Steve,
thanks man. This was so so fun.

Speaker 1 (40:40):
Bro, that was good stuff. Lawrence Presman the press find
him at wager talk dot com. And one of the
comments up earlier that said Kiss is a greater band
than the Grateful Dead, And right when I was going
to have our producer Dan pop it up, I realized
it came from a guy named Tokyo Brandon, so we
didn't have time to mess with them even more Tokyo
but fun stuff. We should have got to the three box,

(41:00):
but it might have broken the internet for real if
we had done that. So all right, my man, let's
finish off here with a few minutes of baseball. What's
catching your eye today? On Saturday?

Speaker 5 (41:10):
I'm sure he misses me, seeing me once a week.

Speaker 1 (41:14):
It's like it's like the United Nations here, like America
is the neutral country. I'm like Switzerland between Canada and
Japan right now here on Saturday.

Speaker 5 (41:23):
Yeah, I miss him making fun of my my wardrobe
and all that stuff is really good stuff. Let's talk
about Arizona versus Colorado.

Speaker 1 (41:33):
First of all, you're having a hell of a season.

Speaker 5 (41:37):
Huh Yeah, yeah, plus fifty five units. I'm number three
at wager talk right now. Yeah, number one three the
last four years. I'll do a promotion later. You can
get three days of my all access for just thirty
nine bucks using code TB three. But let's get to
the game. I got several games up. Sorry, Dan, I

(41:59):
threw some games out to you earlier. This was not
one of them, so if you had graphics ready, sorry
about that. Zach Allen taking the mount for the Diamondbacks
and Jerma Marquez. Actually, Zach Allen is a guy that
I think the books generally overcompensate for. I think the
books like him a little too much. But I'm going

(42:20):
I'm going to back him here. The only way you
could do this is on the run line, though, because
they're a minus three hundred. But Colorado is just one
of those teams. Colorado is the only team like I
do rankings in several categories hitting, batting, sorry, hitting and batting,
same thing. It's one am here, give me a break, batting, pitching,

(42:41):
and bullpen starting pitcher, and Colorado is the only team
that ranks twenty six or worse in every single category
that I rank across the board. Jerrema Marquez is I
have him ranked twenty eight out of thirty on a
curve of thirty out of two hundred starting pitchers. So yeah,

(43:02):
he's walking about sixty percent of the batters that he
strikes out. Not good numbers. Gallon, Gallon's pretty average, but still,
I think even though Arizona's bullpen is struggling, they're batting
number eight in all of MLB, So Diamondbacks would be
the only way to go, even at home. I think
a run line is pretty safe here.

Speaker 1 (43:23):
Yeah, and the Rockies just are historically bad right now.
I did a video on them the other day, and
a couple of days ago, they had seven wins, which
was half as many as any other team in baseball.
The White Sox, I think, hat like thirteen. Everybody else
had fourteen or fifteen wins or more, and it's in stint.
Arthur de Caeesar said, you know, we the Dodgers haven't
gone to two and a half run line yet because
they you know, they haven't been cashing as much as

(43:44):
people thought. But he said the Rockies are a team.
They might have to start putting a plus two and
a half. They're just so bad offensively, and it's like
any sport now Tokyo, it's like you've got to have offense,
and you take them out of corps Field, they're really bad.
They're like less than two runs a game. What point
this season do you maybe start trusting Colorado. I mean
you'd have to see the offense maybe heat up.

Speaker 5 (44:06):
I will never trust Colorado this season. That's the easiest.
There's no way you can trust him.

Speaker 1 (44:11):
You know.

Speaker 5 (44:11):
I do a show total basis with Adam Trigger and
Brian Leonard, and I said in the very show number
one in Week one of MLB, I said, the Colorado
Rockies are going to be the worst. They're going to
be worse than the White Sox. And nobody believed me,
but they believe me.

Speaker 1 (44:26):
Now what forty wins last year? They were pretty damn
bad last year, and the Rockies are giving them a run.
And the Age of parody, well, it's amazing to me too,
in the age of parody, especially like in all sports,
that we have some extreme outliers like the White Sox
last year, the Rockies this year, and then the opposite end,
the Dodgers have been as you know, stacked as any
team in recent history. Arthur mentioned they were, you know,

(44:49):
and Johnny mentioned this earlier this week. You're only up
like the unit for the season coming into midweek. What
are you doing with this Dodgers Angels game tonight of
the Angels bullpen has really struggled this season.

Speaker 5 (44:59):
Dodgers Angels. Yeah, so Clayton Kershaw is going to make
his first start here. And you know what I've noticed
in the past, Clayton Kershaw when he makes his first
appearance after some time off, he's usually pretty good. I mean,
he's up there in age and basically it's it's basically

(45:22):
like dating before your marriage. This is as good as
it's ever going to get for him. This is going
to be his best start of the season. Most likely
it's all downhill from here. They'll probably leave him in
for four innings. He'll probably allow one run. Angels batting
I have him ranked twenty out of thirty. Their bullpen
I have him ranked twenty four out of thirty. So

(45:45):
Anderson's the only saving grace for the Angels today because
he's actually a pretty good picture. He's one of the
few pictures that isn't poisoned by the toxic pitching coaching
that they have in LA. Have you noticed pictures like
Canning and Haiti when they leave LA, they all of
a sudden are good, and pitchers like Kikuchi when they
go to LA, suddenly they're bad. It's no a coincidence there.

(46:10):
But I think the Dodgers will handle this one. You know,
they were down, They were due for a letdown after
scoring like two or three touchdowns the night before on
or on the Athletics. So yeah, they had their let
down yesterday May sucked. But today I have a feeling
Dodgers are going to explode for another one of those
double digit run production games.

Speaker 1 (46:31):
Yeah. Once again, I've said for years and now, you
play the Dodgers minus one and a half run line,
you don't lay that extra juice because when they win,
they usually win by margin. And the thing about the
Rockies thirty of their first thirty five losses this year
or by two runs or more. One of them was
on opening Day by one run, so they've lost thirty
of their next thirty four losses came by two runs
or more. So you can literally cut the juice in
half with really bad teams laying the run in a

(46:54):
half against them, are really good teams laying the run
and half of the team like the Dodgers. Roger Long says,
the Pirates might give the Rockies a run for their
money as one of the worst teams in the league.
And it's an interesting game to talk about today because
they play the Phillies, the rival Pennsylvania rival, the two
seventy six rivalry, the Turnpike Here Phillies, I thought maybe

(47:15):
would aggress a little bit this season twenty six and
eighteen just thirteen and fifteen against winning teams, So that
means they are thirteen and three against losing teams like
the Pirates. Do they get it done today?

Speaker 5 (47:28):
I don't think there's any other way to go here.
I mean, you got Zach Wheeler on the mound, not
only on the curve. Do I have him as an
elite pitcher, but out of all the two hundred and
fifty pitchers that I rank. I have him number four,
so he is elite on my curve of thirty. I
have him number one point seven, so yeah, he's definitely elite.

(47:50):
He's only walking twelve percent of the guys that he
strikes out, which is an amazing number. Lodzinski, I have
him ranked twenty out of thirty, so he's in the
bottom one third tier. Pittsburgh their bullpen is not bad.
Have them ranked eighteen, But I got Phillies bullpen ranked thirteen,
So Phillies have every advantage here hitting they rank eight,

(48:12):
Pittsburgh ranks twenty six. They just can't produce any runs whatsoever.
I don't think there's any other way to go. I
think Phillies were like minus two to seventy. But you
can get them on the run line for a good
a good number. Parlay of the Phillies together with the
Diamondbacks for minus one twenty might not be a bad
bet on that one, because I don't see either one

(48:32):
of those teams losing to bottom feeders at home with
good pitchers on the mount.

Speaker 1 (48:39):
Yeah, once again Phillies big on the money line, but
once again that run like can really cut it down
about minus one forty five today cuts it in half
almost as is often the case, that games at six
oh five East of the Night Pittsburgh at Philly, and
it is truly last call on last call. If you
guys won any games covered here with Tokyo brain a
couple of minutes remaining, drop them in the live chat
on the way out here. We'll get to one more

(49:00):
game with the Tokyo and that's Padres Mariners tonight, and
that is a late game at eight forty eastern Hancock
and Pevada. We've got Seattle at San Diego. What are
you looking at this one?

Speaker 5 (49:11):
So this is a good one. San Diego lost yesterday
and that was kind of a surprise, but today they
have a much better pitcher here. I have Emerson Hancock
ranked twenty four out of thirty on the curve of thirty.
He's walking way too many, guys. The only advantage that
Seattle has in this game, as far as my numbers

(49:33):
are concerned, is the bullpen, but it's not really that
much of an advantage. Seattle is actually one of those
teams that's known for their bullpen, but in this game,
you know, I have him ranked fourteen out of thirty,
where I have San Diego ranked nineteen out of thirty.
But those numbers are a little deceiving because San Diego
has much better talent in their bullpen. And you know

(49:54):
you cat baseball too, Steve. You know, the first couple
weeks of the season, san Diego's bullpen was elite. But
now they're dipping a little bit. But I think they'll
come back. San Diego is too talented not to come back,
and they get Emerson Hancock, who is probably not a
major league level pitcher. I think they'll crush them. I

(50:16):
think they'll smash them. However, you can take san Diego here.
I think I got them at minus one. But yeah,
san Diego is a much better team.

Speaker 1 (50:24):
They have.

Speaker 5 (50:26):
The better batting. San Diego currently ranks five, Seattle currently
ranks twenty four in battings. So yeah, san Diego is
the only way to go here.

Speaker 1 (50:35):
So we got one bonus game for you, Brandon on
the way out here, Mike Scott in the chat saying
good morning, fellas. Do you all like the Nationals game
going over today? My Washington Nationals. I think they're a
little bit of a sleeper team, you know, Itoentially I
saw the future odds. I think the bottom three teams
were like bottom four White Sox, Rockies, Pirates, and they
had the Nationals grouped with them. And I think the
Nationals are an up and coming team nineteen to twenty seven.

(50:57):
I think they started like one and seven, right, so
they're like eighteen and nineteen or whatever since. But he's
asking about the total, But do you have any thoughts
on this Nationals game? It's a four oh five Eastern.
It's the rivalry series, the I ninety five series between
the Nationals, my Washington Nationals and my childhood Baltimore Orioles.
I'm conflicted brand straight in this one.

Speaker 2 (51:18):
I like.

Speaker 5 (51:18):
I like the comments Tokyo. Brandon was still in the
womb when Merrill was making us.

Speaker 1 (51:22):
I think you might actually be a little bit older
than me too. That's why I was laughing with. I
saw that Pres. Brandon and I both looked good for
our age. Pres is a couple of years older than me,
but Brandon and I are holding up pretty well. Over fifty,
I believe, so.

Speaker 5 (51:34):
Not doing it fifty five.

Speaker 1 (51:36):
I am beat you beat President. I think Pres is
fifty three ish. I'm fifty one ish. We're all over
half a century. We all have a lot of baseball experience,
and Tokyo and I combined last year when like over
two hundred units at wager talk. Put that in perspective
in baseball alone, so it's pretty impressive we did.

Speaker 5 (51:55):
You and I are usually at the top there, fighting
for supremacy there. But yeah, let's talk about this one. Actually,
I think the Nationals have a chance to win this
today and I like them as a dog. Not gonna
put a lot of money on it. Irvin's not exactly
a guy I'm happy to back, and Washington's bullpen's not

(52:17):
very good, but Kyle Gibson is just so bad. So
I'm kind of liking the Nationals to have a shot here,
maybe on a plus one and a half or just
straight up on the money line. Another way to go
would be to take their team total. I think it
was four and a half. Four and a half might
be kind of high. Maybe take an all team total

(52:37):
over three and a half and parlay it with something.
But I think the Nationals are alive here because Kyle
Gibson is just so bad. Put it in perspective, As
I said, I ranked two hundred and fifty starting pitchers
and Kyle Gibson ranks two hundred and forty nine.

Speaker 1 (52:52):
Wow. Yeah, I gotta ask you that. Do you know
all fans who number two fifty.

Speaker 5 (52:57):
Is let me find out that's fantastic.

Speaker 1 (53:01):
Two and forty nine. So there's a reason I'll throw
it back. You know, Mike would ask you about the total.
I'll throw it back. There's a reason Mike that total
is ten and a half. It's the biggest total on
the board today. There's a ten out there. Also, as
you know Tokyo, more times than not, the highest totals
go over in any sport, the lowest totals go under.
So you've got the second worst starting pitcher in baseball
going today.

Speaker 5 (53:21):
It's true. Yeah, and I actually have a Bowden Francis
ranked two fifteen. Wowten. Francis was a guy I was
really high on last season. He just fell off a
cliff this season. I don't know what's wrong with him.
But anyway, regarding that ten total, I don't know if
I would do that because both of these offenses ranked
in the bottom one third of all of the MLB.

(53:44):
But if if it's going to go over, this is
the game to go over. But I would feel more
comfortable taking Washington's team total because you get a lineup
that's going against a poor bullpen and a really poor
starting pitcher, and I think the Orioles used some of
their bullpen to preserve a win. So yeah, I think
washington Steam total over is a better way to go

(54:05):
than the full game.

Speaker 1 (54:07):
Yeah, we've even seen there's lots of five and a half,
so the first five. There's even some sixes out there
for a first five in line, which is unheard of
now days. That's about Gibson. Here's what that about this play.
Washington's first five team total is two and a half.

Speaker 5 (54:22):
Interesting, That might be a good way to go because
I mean game game totals four and a half, which
is kind of high, you know, I like to take
over three and a half.

Speaker 1 (54:34):
Yeah, it's actually plus it's even money. Yeah, National's first
five team total over two and a half would be
even money, which does seem Yeah, there we go. We
finished off last call with a nice little first five
team total, which I've never released in my life until just.

Speaker 5 (54:50):
Throw another one out. I just put it. I'm going
to do my Steve Merrill impersonation. I just put I
just made a video on wager talk dot com. Go
check it out. That's what Steve.

Speaker 1 (55:01):
But I was going to ask me what going on,
so it would be a very appropriate promote.

Speaker 5 (55:05):
Yeah, I just mean it. A lot of people were
asking about the Mets and Yankees game, and I think
the Mets are a live dog here because Canning has
only allowed four runs in his last five starts. Uh,
if the Mets are going to win one game in
this series, because they're not going to win tomorrow against
against I'm I'm drawing a blank. But Yankees have their

(55:26):
ace on the mound tomorrow, so I don't think the
Mets are going to win that one. But I think
the Mets are a live dog today. TB three get
three days all access of my plays for thirty nine
dollars is a pretty good deal. I have two four
percent plays out today, so you can get both of
those plus two more days for thirty nine bucks. It's

(55:47):
a great deal.

Speaker 2 (55:47):
Max Freed, who will be going tomorrow?

Speaker 1 (55:50):
Max Free? Yeah, I was gonna say it's the Sunday
night game actually tomorrow a pair of lefties Freed and
Peterson Stree.

Speaker 5 (55:56):
I don't think the Mets are going to win that one,
but I think they could win today because Canning has
been unbelievable. Four earned runs in his last five starts.

Speaker 1 (56:04):
Wow.

Speaker 5 (56:05):
And that's big teams too, He's that's against the Blue
Jays and and and teams that are really smacking it well.

Speaker 1 (56:12):
So that's so important to do too when you're looking
at pitching numbers. Right, because I'll talk a lot about
this in the videos. We've got six or seven starts now,
these eras, these whips, these records can be so skewed
based on one really bad outing, especially if it's like
the first or second start of the year. So that
is a nice little trick that I used for a
baseball handicapped early in the season, now that I think
it's overlooked a lot of times. And then, as Brandon

(56:33):
just said, you got a factor in opponents too. Right,
you've had three starts against the Colorado Rockies in your
home park. You're gonna look pretty good. Brandon and I
would have a good jory against those guys.

Speaker 5 (56:42):
There was a guy starting yesterday and his numbers looked
really great, but when you broke it down, he had
thirteen innings and five of those were against the Rockies,
and six of those were against the Pirates.

Speaker 1 (56:53):
Wow against the Rockies and Cards. And then if there
are Colorado road games even stronger exactly or vice versa.
You know half your endings have come in Colorado, your
numbers might now look as good as they should be.
So lots of different ways to look at it. But
I love baseball. It is a stat sport and Tokyo
Brandon crushes it as well as anybody, So check them out.
Three Days thirty nine, great scene to Tokyo and you

(57:15):
can catch him a wager Talk TV quite often throughout
the week, so make sure you click subscribe. You click
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call almost like full hour, just a couple of minutes
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If you're watching the replay, drop questions in the replay
chap belows we do monitor the chat. Also reply back

(57:36):
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(57:56):
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(58:40):
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