October 27, 2025 • 30 mins
Are you looking for Monday Night Football player props? You’ve come to the right place as The Prop Master Andy Lang is joined by Andrew McInnis to give props around tonight's Monday Night Football clash between the Commanders and Chiefs! Which players will go over and under their listed prop number? Watch Props and Parlays Today as Andy and Andrew give Monday Night Football player props!
Intro 00:00
Passing Props 2:15
Receiving Props 8:20
Rushing Props 17:28
ATTS Scorers 22:44
Commanders vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay 27:00
Intro 00:00
Passing Props 2:15
Receiving Props 8:20
Rushing Props 17:28
ATTS Scorers 22:44
Commanders vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay 27:00
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
What commanders at Chiefs. Welcome everyone to Props with Parlays.
I'm your host, Andy Lane, being joined as always by
my fellow prop's betting expert Adrian mcguinnis. We're gonna be
breaking down the Jaydon Danielis Washington Commanders. Nothing screams prime
time like when Jane Daniels out and Marcus Mariotte is in.
(00:22):
They're gonna be taking on the Chiefs and you're happy Monday?
Speaker 2 (00:25):
How are you at Monday? Andy?
Speaker 3 (00:27):
I looking forward to this game, and you know, we've
had a lot of Mondays together where we've talked about
some tight point spreads where it's a game we expect
to be wire to wire. Well, based on this number
we're seeing, they're not exactly seeing that, So from prop perspective,
it's a little bit different for how we approach it.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
But looking forward to it, Man, how's your weekend?
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Got eliminated and survivor? Livid at that at the Bengals.
I actually went back because I'm a lunatic, and I
went back and watched the highlights trying to figure out
how we lost that game. When you put up thirty
eight points against New York Jets and there were two
point conversions, there were running backs throwing to tight end.
I mean, it was just it was a miracle, but
we lost that. But good for clients. Had another winning
(01:09):
week six and four so far. I got one strong
best bet up for tonight, so looking for that seven
and four weekend. So I can't really complain too much.
When the when the when the bets go, well, when
the clients are happy. So all right, let's jets.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
We're going to get a win.
Speaker 3 (01:23):
Andy, It's the only way the Jets We're going to
get a win is just in the craziest fashion.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
Feel bad for you, but yeah.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
Like finish one and sixteen, I know it.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
They were never going to get a wire to wire win,
Like they weren't going to be leading all game.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
It was gonna be a weird win like that. So
it's tough. It's tough to see.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
Thirty nine points. Yeah, they had had a first half
touchdowns since week one, so but whatever, you go down
in flames. So here's how we do it, guys. We're
gonna break down passing props, receiving props, rushing props will
go over anytime touchdowns, and then we will build a
same game parlay we'll tell you if this is sub
and that we bet with our own money, or if
(02:01):
these are just leans that we have. Let's get started
with the passing props, Andrew coming to you first. What
do you expect passing wise in this one?
Speaker 2 (02:10):
So this might kind of catch you off guard.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
It's a little bit contrarian, but I'm going to look
towards the over on passing attempts over twenty nine and
a half for Marcus Mariota. This is a situation here
where you know, you have this Kansas City Chiefs team
being top five against in passing completions allowed and in
passing attempts allowed. They don't they do so well against
(02:33):
the pass, and they've clamped down defensively on teams.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
But when you look at a point.
Speaker 3 (02:37):
Spread this big, this leads me to believe this number
should have been adjusted a bit more than it was
as far as the passing attempt number for the Chief's opponent,
and of course the quarterback being Marcus Mariota. So whether
it ends up being short dump offs, whether they're going
to have to throw deep towards the end of the game,
and the best part about this is that maybe he
(02:57):
ends up battling. Maybe Mariota actually show people and keeps
this somewhat in reach. But I think, no matter what,
if he's able to do that, it's going to be
because he's able to have some what success and a
little bit of success through the air. So I'll tell
you what, though, Anie, there's more than there's more than
a reason why I'm taking the attempts and then the completions.
(03:20):
I don't exact exactly trust the guy by any means,
but I think the volume is going to be there
for the attempts. I mean, when you look at this
Kansas City defense and you look at the passing attempts
and completions, we've got top ten in passing attempts, top
ten in passing completions. Last couple of games, they were
(03:41):
top five in passing completions allowed. But this, to me
just sets up for a really good contrarian spot here
because I can't see this commander's team being able to
run the ball and establish the run.
Speaker 2 (03:52):
They're going to have to throw it.
Speaker 3 (03:53):
So I'm going to kind of go with the team
that's expected to lose by double digits and take the quarterback.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
Mariotta over twenty nine and a half passing attempts.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
What do you think I have under completions? Actually, so
this would be an interesting demonitoruh Mariota under eighteen and
a half completions fifteen and sixteen in his last two starts,
and the Chiefs only allow nineteen completions per game. They
and they've done very good against subpar quarterbacks. That's the
other thing is like when they have a bad quarterback,
(04:24):
they tend to beat up on him pretty good. He
could easily get over this attempts and under his completions.
What a great same game parlay that would be completely contrit.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
It really could happen.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
It absolutely can happen. So I I don't know what's
the state of this wide receiving corps. Who's healthy, Like,
who's going to be one hundred percent? Who's he throwing to?
Speaker 2 (04:47):
Does it?
Speaker 1 (04:47):
Do the Chiefs run out the clock at the end?
Or is this a close game? Does this turn into
some weird Monday night shootout. There's a lot that goes on,
But I just think if Washington is going to compete,
they're going to have to figure out how to slow
that game down and kind of grind out some clock.
And I just don't think it's with Mariota throwing it
all over the field, So I don't think he's that accurate.
(05:07):
I looked at at his stats and yeah, this guy's
thirty one years old. This is not the young Mariota
running all over the place. We'll get to that in
rushing props. But eye test, he has not looked very good.
So I will take Mariota under and shop around. There's
some minus one forties out there. Minus won forty five's
Mahomes not to throw an interception. He's gone two games
(05:29):
in a row without throwing an interception. The last one
was that terrible one against Jacksonville and it was like
he made that one throw and it was like, yeah,
he's not gonna make a throw that bad for the
next like seven games. So it's I see minus won
sixty on bet MGM, minus won forty fanatics, minus won
forty five on DraftKings, minus went fifty four Caesars, And
then there's other you know, there's other books that have
(05:51):
minus two hundred. So if you want to play it,
shop around if it's too juicy to use it as
a parlay piece. But I just don't see Mahomes taking
many chances Intonight's game.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
I like that, Andy.
Speaker 3 (06:01):
I'll tell you one other one I like here is
mahomes longest pass completion. It's playing simple. This Commander's team
dead last in the league as far as longest completion
given up per game. They're dead last or bottom five
in a lot of statistics that include their their passing defense.
So yeah, from where I'm standing, I think that this
(06:24):
is a day that we see Mahomes kind of being
able to air it out a little bit. The question
is how spread out does the offense become. We can
talk about that in a second with the receiving. But
you know, you and I were talking pre show here
about you know, sometimes like I like to look at
a player and it's mostly about matchup base and not
(06:44):
as much about what they've done lately. There's certain positions
and certain times where I want to look towards. Okay,
this guy's hot right now. This guy has gone over
this number in X amount of games. But like Mahomes
hasn't hit this longest completion in four of his last
five games. But specifically in this matchup against the Commanders,
the number is thirty eight and a half. I feel
(07:06):
like we see a couple deep shots and a couple
of long shots. And if you look at the chart
and some of the you know, kind of the heat
maps or wherever, certain spots where they give up the
most compared to other teams in the league, it's.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
Just that go route.
Speaker 3 (07:19):
It's that like straight line pretty much. They get beat.
Their corners are horrible. I can see it happening at
least once or twice today where they go for kind
of an exciting play. So thirty eight and a half,
Andy's only hit this one in his last five games,
but I think against this matchup, it's worth looking at.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
Shout out. If everyone's noticed the sun is creeping through
the window and about ready to be directly in my eyes.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
You're an angel, Andy, You're an angel.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
This is new. If you guys could hit the like
button while we're going over this, and please put your
favorite bet for tonight in the comments section below. Love
seeing the same game parlays, Love seeing your favorite props
for tonight's game, leave us comment, hit that like button.
If you haven't subscribed to the channel, go ahead and
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(08:08):
of fun and tons of breakdown videos, tons of every
game breakdown videos Andrews on puck time. I'll be breaking
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of great content. Make sure you're subscribed and hit that
bell you notified when these shows go live. Let's take
a look at receiving props. I'll go first, little obscure
Jeremy McNichols over eleven and a half receiving yards. He's
(08:31):
gone over in three straight games. He's got twelve, he's
got thirty and twenty three. I just love, love, love
love these running back numbers where you can get in
one play and this is just a screen pass or
broken play where he goes for thirteen and then you're
good to go. So I really like McNichols to get going,
especially if there's a hurry up drill, if they're down,
(08:52):
he could get out there. And his usage rate has
gone up. And this is a Chiefs team that gives
up thirty one yards per game to running and he
seems to be a guy that's gonna garner a lot
of interest from Mariota. He went over in the last
game that Mario started, so I like McNichols to go
over what do you like receiving wise?
Speaker 2 (09:11):
Andy, I actually liked that one as well.
Speaker 3 (09:13):
That one caught my eye and for my attempts, Like
when I was going over the attempts, that was kind
of one like that could kind of help if you're
looking towards like completions under and my attempts over, because
let's be honest, it's not going to look for that
a million times a game. But for you, you only need,
like you said, one completion potentially to hit that player
prop there with a guy that's going to be real
(09:33):
close to him, and it's a very very short number.
So I like that one as well. You know, I
think I gotta go with the obvious one here. I
think where she rice receptions? You know, sometimes you look
at the board and you think, okay, this guy here,
this guy down the lineup, and I was looking at
several of the players for the Chiefs. But when it
comes down to it, ten targets last week against Vegas,
(09:53):
and this was a game, Andy, where the starters were
pulled off the field like this is this is the
team coming off a game that was just very very
easy and obviously the odds makers are heavily favoring the
Chiefs in this one. But this is a commander's team
that if you go down the list at the wide
receiver one, for a lot of teams.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
That they've faced, they've just absolutely cooked them.
Speaker 3 (10:14):
It's not like a team where you have to look for, okay,
who's the second option, who's the third option. This is
a team that really just seems to get dominated by
the number one option on their opponent every single week,
So it's worth looking at. I would look towards the
receptions for Vershee Rice over six and a half. He
had seven last week, but he did have ten targets.
(10:34):
And I'll tell you what, Like I've seen some posts
and some fantasy blogs and such talking andy about how
Marquise Hollywood Brown his numbers might go down because of
Rashie Rice being back. But I still think that, like,
for example, his numbers could go down, But I don't
think the odds makers have really adjusted much based on
(10:56):
the success he's been able to have.
Speaker 2 (10:59):
Like if you look at the number here, it's twenty two.
Speaker 3 (11:01):
And a half or twenty four and a half now,
Like he's still getting the targets over the last couple
of weeks that I don't think it's going to just
drastically fall off a cliff, you know. And that's kind
of one of those things like I don't think that
the way he's used in the depth chart, even though
there's multiple other options out there, I think he's still
going to be able to get the job done. And
this is a guy that you were just talking about
(11:23):
a running back with this, but with Marky's Hollywood Brown,
this is a guy that could get this for you
in two catches. He doesn't necessarily need six targets to
get over twenty four and a half receiving yards.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
Obviously he can get this.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
And I would say, you know, three targets if that
so over twenty four and a half for Hollywood Brown.
Seemed a bit interesting for me, and I wanted you
your thoughts, Andy, because I was going back and forth
in this. Whenever I go back and forth, I always
want to run and buy you. How would you play
DBot today? Because we're talking about McNichols, Like, I mean,
(11:56):
I like the attempts for Mariota. Someone's going to have
to get at the ball here.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
What what are we approach? What are we thinking? Kind
of the passing game plan is going to even be
for the commanders.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
Here, it's so up in the air. It's just a
pass I there's I looked and I tried. I was like,
it's like, don't be the guy that only talks about
the chiefs. But I don't know what you talk about
receiving game Like, I don't know what you're getting from Debo?
What is what's what's what's McLaurin gonna do? Is he
gonna play? Is this gonna be last second thing where
(12:28):
he doesn't play? Or I don't I have no idea.
What's like nothing would surprise me. And that's the thing, like,
if you're gonna lose a bet, you should be surprised
by it. But if but like, would it surprise you
if Debo went for one hundred and a touchdown? No,
what it's surprises you went for two catches eleven yards?
Speaker 2 (12:46):
No?
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Like, So that's a problem. I really struggle with what
to do with these Washington props tonight.
Speaker 3 (12:52):
So you think they use him right or they wouldn't
play them?
Speaker 1 (12:59):
Yeah, and you know they're they're really they're kind of
like the Ravens. They're like teetering on the edge of
their seasons over like Washington is they can't fall, they
can't keep falling, you know, behind it with these you
know in the in the win lost cups. Same with
the Ravens. So like it's kind of like, yeah, they
probably should start Terry McLaurin if he's good to go,
(13:22):
but I don't know what he's gonna look like. You know,
it's interesting he brought up Hollywood Brown. I went to
Juju smith Shuster over one and a half receptions. He
continues to go over that. Hollywood Brown kind of worried
me last game where he went under his props and
I was like, eh, see the last one out. But
Juju Smith Shooster, it's only one and a half, so
I only need two catches. And you know, actually his
(13:43):
his his catches have gone up. So he went four,
four to two and then three in his last two games.
But you know, we're talking about all these Chiefs receiver,
they're not all gonna go over unless Mahomes throws for
you know, a bazillion yards. So it's kind of already
kind of have to you know, you have to tread
lately and almost say like which one do I like
(14:04):
the most but I do like McNichols, I think he
gets gets a catch. Yeah, you get two catches from him,
you're going over. But even one he can go over
in this one.
Speaker 3 (14:14):
A lot of time we look forwards tight ends when
we're talking about a new quarterback being put in the picture.
Obviously this isn't a young guy by any means. But
maybe Zach Ertz, maybe he's someone that we could target.
Is he someone that they'd feel comfortable, you know, getting
a couple of target His number is mid thirties, I believe.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
I don't know, Andy, Like we said, we're kind.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
Of grasping at straws here trying to find options for
the commanders. But I know you like the under on completion,
So I guess I should be the one telling you
who's gonna.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Get thrown too.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
But but I just I'm trying to figure out exactly
who's going to be the favorite of targets here.
Speaker 2 (14:46):
But we'll find it.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
Yeah, you know, Ertz is a safety blanket. He had
a big game where you know, he caught six catches,
but I watched them that it was like garbage time,
you know, Like that's the thing with Ertz, Like is
he going to be involved in the game plan as
Mario can be good enough, you know, to get him there.
Like if you start him in fantasy, you're just praying
for a touchdown because you know he's probably not getting
(15:08):
eight catches for eighty yards. You know you're probably looking
at three maybe four. So yeah, I Ertz is another one.
I don't I don't know what to do with zach Ertz.
So maybe looking under his longest reception, Mariota doesn't throw
I You know, it's funny, like I wanted to take
under Mario the longest reception. They got it like the twenties.
(15:29):
It was like they don't need the books are telling
you like Malmes is thirty eight. Mariota is like twenty eight.
So yeah, yeah, So Andrew, you and I are both
in play for clients. Tell everyone what you have up.
Speaker 3 (15:42):
I'm excited, Andy five percent play for me tonight in
NFL Action Monday Night Football here eighteen and six.
Speaker 2 (15:48):
NFL Prop run.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
We had one play on the afternoon slate yesterday and
one play on the night slate. We had Breeze Hall
with rushing yards he got to that triple digit number,
and we had Jordan Love and you had that one
as well. That's what as easy to get in the
third quarter. So can't promise tonight's play will be as easy,
but we're hoping it can be and looking forward to it.
So you guys can use the promo code save fifteen
(16:12):
take fifteen dollars off my five percent play in the
NFL WTPUS slash am once again, guys, eighteen and six
NFL prop run. Been super low volume with this, but
it's working. We're gonna stick to it. And this is
a big play on a primetime game that really stood
out to me. So fired up and let's keep this
run going. We'd love to get to twenty and six,
(16:32):
but knock on wood here, let's keep it going. And
Andy Man that Jordan Love We wish they could all
be that easy.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
Oh it was beautiful. Yeah, it was Yeah. The Jordan
Love over is passing which was in the you know,
two thirties, and it was one of those where I
looked at it and I was like, am I missing something?
This Pittsburgh Steelers defense is awful, But no, we both
had the correct read on it. Andrew, I've been the opposite.
I've been fairly high volume. We had ten plays yesterday
went six and four. It's two straight weeks with that
(16:59):
winning percent. I could not be happier. My goal was
fifty eight fifty nine percent, and being of the year,
we're almost there and we have one play tonight. I
wanted to put a couple in, but now there's just
one that sticks out above the rest. So we're gonna
rock with that one and hopefully get to this seven
and four mark. So that's up at WT dot Buzz
slash al. Let's talk about some rushing props. I'll go first.
(17:22):
I mentioned Mario. By the way, Mario's longest passes thirty
two and a half tonight. I thought I saw twenty
and a half yesterday. Maybe that changed, But Marcus Mario's
longest passes thirty two and a half. I'd take the
under on that one. But going to rushing props, I
like his under five and a half rush attempts. You know,
he went over against Vegas, but he went under in
(17:42):
his next full games against Atlanta, and I checked the
game log. He does not run as much as you
might think he did recently. I went back to his
earlier parts of the career and he would fly over.
This total used to go over all the time. But
that's not the case anymore. He's thirty one years old.
His last four starts, it's two and two to this number.
(18:02):
And I don't think there's kneel down situations at the end.
I don't think they're gonna win this game. And this
is a you know, Chiefs defense. They control the line
of scrimmage, and I don't think they're gonna be giving
Marcus Mariota a lot of a lot of leeway. And
when you watched him, he's just not that fast, like
you know who is who's faster in their thirties and
they than they were in their twenties. So I got
(18:25):
Mariota under five and a half rush attempts. What about you?
Speaker 2 (18:29):
I'm gonna go under Isaiah Pacheco.
Speaker 3 (18:33):
And I think, you know, people might be shocked by
this because the game script should implicate that we're gonna
see a lead for the Chiefs. We're gonna see them
up big, and this could be the game for Pacheco
to finally get those numbers. Padded number one. Who says
that the Commanders can't hang around in this game. You
know Andy told us earlier in the show, this is
gonna be about as desperate of a commander's team as
(18:54):
we're gonna get. They could do everything they can to
slow this game down, to make it a little bit tighter,
and to me, maybe keep this Chiefs team having to
have their foot on the gas pedal. But when you
look at this Kansaity Chiefs team, they have been top
three all year long in passing percentage, in utilization of
the past.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
They're not running the ball.
Speaker 3 (19:13):
And at start of the season, when Andy and I
were talking about this Chiefs team, we just slowly and
slowly and slowly started seeing them pretty much abandoned the run.
It just started to become inexistent. So even though the
game script says to us that this should be the
ultimate Pacheco game, I'm not buying it. And the good
news is is if he does break off on one
(19:36):
of his attempts for a huge rush and he does
go over his rushing yard's number, I don't lose until
he hits thirteen rushing attempts.
Speaker 2 (19:46):
So I could be wrong. This could be the breakout
game here for Mandy.
Speaker 3 (19:49):
But I'm gonna go on the other side and just
say just because the script says that it's a huge
point spread, and they're gonna win by a bunch, and
so the running game is gonna be there. It's still
a team that's been passing the ball all year long,
refused to run it. And right now Pacheco's number, I
think is kind of reflecting the game and not as
(20:12):
much what he's been doing over the last handful of weeks.
So under twelve and a half rushing attempts, there's two
lines out there. I see thirteen and a half and
twelve and a half. Twelve and a half obviously gonna
get a bunch much better numbers, So juice tolerance, shop around,
get the best price you can. But also you know,
if you can get that thirteen and a half, it'll
get you there. So we'll see Andy in a dream world.
(20:34):
I'd love for this to be one where he goes
off with his yards and somehow goes under on his attempts.
Speaker 1 (20:39):
For me, well, we have controversy brewing here on props
and parlays. I did my write ups last night, and
I like pachecka over eleven and a half and I
only see a couple websites that have eleven and a
half still left. They bumped it up to twelve. I
agree with your premise that the Chiefs are running, you know,
passing the ball a little bit more. To me, the
(21:01):
odd man out is Kaream Hunt. He's the guy that
I'm looking at fading. In fact, I would look at
his under six and a half, look at his carries.
The last four week, he's gone from thirteen to seven
to six to four. So I think if you're looking
at hey, who's not running the ball anymore, it's Cream
Hunt and it makes sense. I mean the eye test,
come on, he did not exactly look like he was
(21:25):
a speed demon out there. And again we gotta remember
Pacheco had a really bad injury last year. I mean
it was a broken leg and he came back looked
like a shell of himself. Did not look great earlier.
But I think he's starting to find his stride and
this is a Chief team that's going to need him
in the playoffs. You know, we get to the playoffs,
it's defense, it's running the ball. The weather's cold that
(21:45):
you can't always air it out. So I think he's
starting to settle in. I think it's over eleven and
a half twelve and a half. I don't know if
I get why you would do that. I mean, he
could land exactly on twelve and you and I both
look like geniuses. But I just you know, I think
Kareem Hunt under six and a half is actually where
I would look to unless something happens with Checko just
(22:07):
not seeing the carries there four.
Speaker 2 (22:09):
That's a good shot.
Speaker 3 (22:10):
And I like that good idea because you know what,
maybe this is the game they feed just one guy
and then even though it's the bigger number for him,
maybe he's the guy that gets all the touches. And
that's a big thing when you're looking at attempts for
running backs, like if you just like, if I get
a couple from the second option, it's huge from under.
Speaker 1 (22:27):
Right, absolutely, yeah, one hundred percent. All right, Let's look
at any time touchdown scores. I mean they're telling you
a story with Travis Kelcey at minus one ten and
I can't, I can't. I can't be mad at it.
Like Andrew we Ca we played three tight ends on
National tight End Day to score a touchdown and we
hit two of them, but they were at plus one fifty.
(22:49):
That was the other nice thing. We hit three plays
yesterday at plus one fifty. On our props. Two of
them were tight ends. So it's it's National tight End
Day or weekend, whatever you want to call it. You
gotta believe Travis kelce probably his farewell tour. Don't you
want to get him a touchdown? I think they may
go the extra mile to try and get him a
(23:10):
tight end. Other than that, good luck picking a Washington commander.
Good luck picking a Washington commander for this one. Kelsey
is the only one. And it's the chalkiest squarest bet
I've given out on the show this year. Travis kelcey
to score a touchdown on National tight End Weekend. But
I can't really, I can't really find another one.
Speaker 3 (23:30):
I like, what about you, Isaiah Pichecko. This one's kind
of ten to one first touchdown. I can see them
just absolutely march in the field, slicing and dicing the
commanders and then you know, maybe going down to the
one or two and punching it in getting checko there.
Ten to one not bad, But look, I'm gonna I'm
gonna just continue to say that. I think that when
(23:51):
you have a player, no matter what they're coming back from, uh,
they're gonna just get fed the ball and I think
if I like, if I like Rashid Rice, O'll run
his completions.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
I like him to get a touchdown. So we're not.
Speaker 3 (24:02):
Giving anybody out that's you know, in the huge plus
by any means. But I think Rice is a guy
to look at and national touchdown weekend day, week of
football whatever. It might be hard to talk you off
anything to do with Travis Kelcey. And we didn't touch
on him with the receiving yards, but that number just
was kind of weird to me, Like I could see
Travis kelce having like seventy yards tonight or twenty two.
(24:23):
Like I literally have no clue what to expect from him.
So maybe the easy route is to just look towards
him getting in the end zone. Let's be real here,
the Commanders aren't going to get shut out, you know,
or maybe they will. But we talked about Zach Ertz
being the safety blanket. Plus two forty kind of intriguing
(24:43):
for him to be maybe that touchdown guy from Marcus
Mariota agree one.
Speaker 1 (24:48):
Hundred percent on that one. He's a reliable red zone target.
I would have loved it a lot more if Jane
Daniels would have been playing but about as if Jane Daniels.
It's probably plus one sixty top fourty. Yeah, seriously. So
all right, it's time for same game parlay. Andrew and
I have not hit one of these long shot ones.
(25:09):
Maybe this is the week. All right, here's how it works.
I picked two legs, Andrew picks two legs. We put
them all together for a nice, juicy same game parlay.
I'll let you go first, Andrew. What's your first leg?
Speaker 3 (25:21):
I hope I don't steal anything from you, but I'm throwing.
I'm just gonna throw in Kelsey touchdown. I haven't been
doing a lot of touchdown props or bets on the
same game parlays. Look at the spread here, someone's gonna score.
They're gonna put numbers up on the board. And whether
he has a good day with the yardage, I think
he's still gonna find the end zone. We'll take Travis
Kelcey for the same game parlay.
Speaker 1 (25:43):
I like Pacheko over his rushing attempts. I'm actually gonna
go to a little bit of an inflated line. Give
me sixty plus rushing yards. That's plus one seventy on DraftKings.
If he breaks a long one. We're looking pretty good.
I like him to get the volume. I think Kareem
Hunt is kind of the odd man out right now.
So more volume, more yards, and I love that price
(26:03):
on Pachecko to have over sixty yards. All right, what's
your second leg?
Speaker 2 (26:09):
All right?
Speaker 3 (26:10):
For the second leg, we'll go with Rashi Rice seventy
plus receiving yards.
Speaker 1 (26:19):
Right.
Speaker 3 (26:20):
If I like the volume, if I like him to
get a ton of completions, obviously he's gonna rack up
those yards as well. We saw ten targets last week
for them, and that was a rather easy game where
the starters ended up being pushed off the field. So
if that's something that takes place in a game that
he got pulled off the field, then let's see what
he can do in a full game.
Speaker 1 (26:38):
All right, Well, my next one's gonna push to a
twenty five to one. Oh payout, pay out here, all right.
One unit we haven't really talked about is this Chiefs defense.
I love them. They're playing so good. Give me the
Washington Commanders under fourteen and a half on their team total.
The last two home games, the Chiefs have shut out
(26:59):
the Raiders and they held the Lions to seventeen points,
so we need this Commander's team to either get two
touchdowns and a two point conversion, two touchdowns and a
field goal. I just think scoring is gonna be really,
really tough. The Chiefs have looked good on defense, and
if this offense gets clicking, you can totally see them
(27:20):
running out the clock and dominating time of possession. The
Commanders have been battling injury, so that gets us to
twenty five to one. So we're looking at Travis Kelcey
anytime touchdown score, Pacheco's sixty plus rushing or she Rice
seventy plus receiving in the Commanders under fourteen and.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
A half man total.
Speaker 1 (27:40):
That gets us the twenty.
Speaker 2 (27:41):
Five one, which is the one we hit this week
out seven to one. This is the one we hit.
It's twenty five to one too. Let's go.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
I love it. I love it all right, there's our
same game parlay again. Put in the comments what your
same game parlay is or what your favorite prop is
for tonight. Tell us a degree or disagree with anything
you've seen on the show, and Andrew one more time,
tell everyone about your best bet that's up tonight.
Speaker 3 (28:05):
Five percent play tonight guys cannot wait for it. Eighteen
and six run with the player props in the NFL
promo code right there on the screen, save fifteen will
take fifteen dollars off tonight's five percent play. Look, we
always preach seven days, thirty days full season packages. If
you're someone that wants to jump on board for just
one play, make sure you use that coupon code save fifteen,
(28:28):
take fifteen dollars off. It was a two and oh
day yesterday with the player props, let's make it a
complete three and oh weekend. Looking forward to it, and Andy,
I agree with what you said. And sometimes your high volume,
sometimes you're lower. And if you can hit at that
percentage every single week, you'll be one happy man. So
you're coming off a winning Sunday and one best bet
for you as well.
Speaker 2 (28:46):
That's right, Yeah, just one.
Speaker 1 (28:48):
There was a lot up that I liked and leaned,
but there was one that kind of stood out above
the rest, so I will roll with that one. Tonight
six and four yesterday, three of those plays were plus
one fifty, So very very happy. And that's two straight
winning weeks that we've guaranteed to lock in. So another
winning week and NFL props have been one of the
bright spots for us this year. We've had, you know,
some some really good weeks. We've had some okay weeks.
(29:10):
I got to tell you just just just to be
really honest here, you know what we've avoided so far
through Week eight is just that disaster week, that week
where you just can't like pick one, like now I
got eliminated in Survivor and you know it might pick
five contests got blown to smithereens this weekend. But props wise,
like we've been high volume, we haven't had that week
(29:32):
where you know we just like really really decimated. We've
been up or we've been about even. So I'm happy
with the work that we've done. And you know, with
those plus moneys, we've guaranteed a winning week for us
this week.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
So all right, some teams I just haven't even been
involved in, Like that's what's helped me this year is
like I've seen some teams like, yeah, like when we
were doing the right now before the show and you
were like, what are your thoughts? And I was like, pass,
I really should have been saying that about like a
quarter of the league, And and that's what's giving me
success this season, I think is that I'm not saying, Okay,
(30:03):
I like that game, let's find a prop. It's like, no,
I don't like anything to do with this team whatsoever.
We're gonna stay away from you altogether. And that's helped
me out a lot.
Speaker 1 (30:11):
There's a lot of themes that pop up every single week,
just like we're fading this team, we're betting on this guy.
There's a lot of the same names that pop up.
So thanks very much for watching guys. Hit the like
button on your way out. Good looking all your place tonight,
make sure you bet responsibly and we'll see everyone next week.
Take care,
What commanders at Chiefs. Welcome everyone to Props with Parlays.
I'm your host, Andy Lane, being joined as always by
my fellow prop's betting expert Adrian mcguinnis. We're gonna be
breaking down the Jaydon Danielis Washington Commanders. Nothing screams prime
time like when Jane Daniels out and Marcus Mariotte is in.
(00:22):
They're gonna be taking on the Chiefs and you're happy Monday?
Speaker 2 (00:25):
How are you at Monday? Andy?
Speaker 3 (00:27):
I looking forward to this game, and you know, we've
had a lot of Mondays together where we've talked about
some tight point spreads where it's a game we expect
to be wire to wire. Well, based on this number
we're seeing, they're not exactly seeing that, So from prop perspective,
it's a little bit different for how we approach it.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
But looking forward to it, Man, how's your weekend?
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Got eliminated and survivor? Livid at that at the Bengals.
I actually went back because I'm a lunatic, and I
went back and watched the highlights trying to figure out
how we lost that game. When you put up thirty
eight points against New York Jets and there were two
point conversions, there were running backs throwing to tight end.
I mean, it was just it was a miracle, but
we lost that. But good for clients. Had another winning
(01:09):
week six and four so far. I got one strong
best bet up for tonight, so looking for that seven
and four weekend. So I can't really complain too much.
When the when the when the bets go, well, when
the clients are happy. So all right, let's jets.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
We're going to get a win.
Speaker 3 (01:23):
Andy, It's the only way the Jets We're going to
get a win is just in the craziest fashion.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
Feel bad for you, but yeah.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
Like finish one and sixteen, I know it.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
They were never going to get a wire to wire win,
Like they weren't going to be leading all game.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
It was gonna be a weird win like that. So
it's tough. It's tough to see.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
Thirty nine points. Yeah, they had had a first half
touchdowns since week one, so but whatever, you go down
in flames. So here's how we do it, guys. We're
gonna break down passing props, receiving props, rushing props will
go over anytime touchdowns, and then we will build a
same game parlay we'll tell you if this is sub
and that we bet with our own money, or if
(02:01):
these are just leans that we have. Let's get started
with the passing props, Andrew coming to you first. What
do you expect passing wise in this one?
Speaker 2 (02:10):
So this might kind of catch you off guard.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
It's a little bit contrarian, but I'm going to look
towards the over on passing attempts over twenty nine and
a half for Marcus Mariota. This is a situation here
where you know, you have this Kansas City Chiefs team
being top five against in passing completions allowed and in
passing attempts allowed. They don't they do so well against
(02:33):
the pass, and they've clamped down defensively on teams.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
But when you look at a point.
Speaker 3 (02:37):
Spread this big, this leads me to believe this number
should have been adjusted a bit more than it was
as far as the passing attempt number for the Chief's opponent,
and of course the quarterback being Marcus Mariota. So whether
it ends up being short dump offs, whether they're going
to have to throw deep towards the end of the game,
and the best part about this is that maybe he
(02:57):
ends up battling. Maybe Mariota actually show people and keeps
this somewhat in reach. But I think, no matter what,
if he's able to do that, it's going to be
because he's able to have some what success and a
little bit of success through the air. So I'll tell
you what, though, Anie, there's more than there's more than
a reason why I'm taking the attempts and then the completions.
(03:20):
I don't exact exactly trust the guy by any means,
but I think the volume is going to be there
for the attempts. I mean, when you look at this
Kansas City defense and you look at the passing attempts
and completions, we've got top ten in passing attempts, top
ten in passing completions. Last couple of games, they were
(03:41):
top five in passing completions allowed. But this, to me
just sets up for a really good contrarian spot here
because I can't see this commander's team being able to
run the ball and establish the run.
Speaker 2 (03:52):
They're going to have to throw it.
Speaker 3 (03:53):
So I'm going to kind of go with the team
that's expected to lose by double digits and take the quarterback.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
Mariotta over twenty nine and a half passing attempts.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
What do you think I have under completions? Actually, so
this would be an interesting demonitoruh Mariota under eighteen and
a half completions fifteen and sixteen in his last two starts,
and the Chiefs only allow nineteen completions per game. They
and they've done very good against subpar quarterbacks. That's the
other thing is like when they have a bad quarterback,
(04:24):
they tend to beat up on him pretty good. He
could easily get over this attempts and under his completions.
What a great same game parlay that would be completely contrit.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
It really could happen.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
It absolutely can happen. So I I don't know what's
the state of this wide receiving corps. Who's healthy, Like,
who's going to be one hundred percent? Who's he throwing to?
Speaker 2 (04:47):
Does it?
Speaker 1 (04:47):
Do the Chiefs run out the clock at the end?
Or is this a close game? Does this turn into
some weird Monday night shootout. There's a lot that goes on,
But I just think if Washington is going to compete,
they're going to have to figure out how to slow
that game down and kind of grind out some clock.
And I just don't think it's with Mariota throwing it
all over the field, So I don't think he's that accurate.
(05:07):
I looked at at his stats and yeah, this guy's
thirty one years old. This is not the young Mariota
running all over the place. We'll get to that in
rushing props. But eye test, he has not looked very good.
So I will take Mariota under and shop around. There's
some minus one forties out there. Minus won forty five's
Mahomes not to throw an interception. He's gone two games
(05:29):
in a row without throwing an interception. The last one
was that terrible one against Jacksonville and it was like
he made that one throw and it was like, yeah,
he's not gonna make a throw that bad for the
next like seven games. So it's I see minus won
sixty on bet MGM, minus won forty fanatics, minus won
forty five on DraftKings, minus went fifty four Caesars, And
then there's other you know, there's other books that have
(05:51):
minus two hundred. So if you want to play it,
shop around if it's too juicy to use it as
a parlay piece. But I just don't see Mahomes taking
many chances Intonight's game.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
I like that, Andy.
Speaker 3 (06:01):
I'll tell you one other one I like here is
mahomes longest pass completion. It's playing simple. This Commander's team
dead last in the league as far as longest completion
given up per game. They're dead last or bottom five
in a lot of statistics that include their their passing defense.
So yeah, from where I'm standing, I think that this
(06:24):
is a day that we see Mahomes kind of being
able to air it out a little bit. The question
is how spread out does the offense become. We can
talk about that in a second with the receiving. But
you know, you and I were talking pre show here
about you know, sometimes like I like to look at
a player and it's mostly about matchup base and not
(06:44):
as much about what they've done lately. There's certain positions
and certain times where I want to look towards. Okay,
this guy's hot right now. This guy has gone over
this number in X amount of games. But like Mahomes
hasn't hit this longest completion in four of his last
five games. But specifically in this matchup against the Commanders,
the number is thirty eight and a half. I feel
(07:06):
like we see a couple deep shots and a couple
of long shots. And if you look at the chart
and some of the you know, kind of the heat
maps or wherever, certain spots where they give up the
most compared to other teams in the league, it's.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
Just that go route.
Speaker 3 (07:19):
It's that like straight line pretty much. They get beat.
Their corners are horrible. I can see it happening at
least once or twice today where they go for kind
of an exciting play. So thirty eight and a half,
Andy's only hit this one in his last five games,
but I think against this matchup, it's worth looking at.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
Shout out. If everyone's noticed the sun is creeping through
the window and about ready to be directly in my eyes.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
You're an angel, Andy, You're an angel.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
This is new. If you guys could hit the like
button while we're going over this, and please put your
favorite bet for tonight in the comments section below. Love
seeing the same game parlays, Love seeing your favorite props
for tonight's game, leave us comment, hit that like button.
If you haven't subscribed to the channel, go ahead and
do that now. We have about two hundred and twenty
seven thousand turned twenty eight thousand subscribers, so a lot
(08:08):
of fun and tons of breakdown videos, tons of every
game breakdown videos Andrews on puck time. I'll be breaking
down NBA videos every game this week, so a lot
of great content. Make sure you're subscribed and hit that
bell you notified when these shows go live. Let's take
a look at receiving props. I'll go first, little obscure
Jeremy McNichols over eleven and a half receiving yards. He's
(08:31):
gone over in three straight games. He's got twelve, he's
got thirty and twenty three. I just love, love, love
love these running back numbers where you can get in
one play and this is just a screen pass or
broken play where he goes for thirteen and then you're
good to go. So I really like McNichols to get going,
especially if there's a hurry up drill, if they're down,
(08:52):
he could get out there. And his usage rate has
gone up. And this is a Chiefs team that gives
up thirty one yards per game to running and he
seems to be a guy that's gonna garner a lot
of interest from Mariota. He went over in the last
game that Mario started, so I like McNichols to go
over what do you like receiving wise?
Speaker 2 (09:11):
Andy, I actually liked that one as well.
Speaker 3 (09:13):
That one caught my eye and for my attempts, Like
when I was going over the attempts, that was kind
of one like that could kind of help if you're
looking towards like completions under and my attempts over, because
let's be honest, it's not going to look for that
a million times a game. But for you, you only need,
like you said, one completion potentially to hit that player
prop there with a guy that's going to be real
(09:33):
close to him, and it's a very very short number.
So I like that one as well. You know, I
think I gotta go with the obvious one here. I
think where she rice receptions? You know, sometimes you look
at the board and you think, okay, this guy here,
this guy down the lineup, and I was looking at
several of the players for the Chiefs. But when it
comes down to it, ten targets last week against Vegas,
(09:53):
and this was a game, Andy, where the starters were
pulled off the field like this is this is the
team coming off a game that was just very very
easy and obviously the odds makers are heavily favoring the
Chiefs in this one. But this is a commander's team
that if you go down the list at the wide
receiver one, for a lot of teams.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
That they've faced, they've just absolutely cooked them.
Speaker 3 (10:14):
It's not like a team where you have to look for, okay,
who's the second option, who's the third option. This is
a team that really just seems to get dominated by
the number one option on their opponent every single week,
So it's worth looking at. I would look towards the
receptions for Vershee Rice over six and a half. He
had seven last week, but he did have ten targets.
(10:34):
And I'll tell you what, Like I've seen some posts
and some fantasy blogs and such talking andy about how
Marquise Hollywood Brown his numbers might go down because of
Rashie Rice being back. But I still think that, like,
for example, his numbers could go down, But I don't
think the odds makers have really adjusted much based on
(10:56):
the success he's been able to have.
Speaker 2 (10:59):
Like if you look at the number here, it's twenty two.
Speaker 3 (11:01):
And a half or twenty four and a half now,
Like he's still getting the targets over the last couple
of weeks that I don't think it's going to just
drastically fall off a cliff, you know. And that's kind
of one of those things like I don't think that
the way he's used in the depth chart, even though
there's multiple other options out there, I think he's still
going to be able to get the job done. And
this is a guy that you were just talking about
(11:23):
a running back with this, but with Marky's Hollywood Brown,
this is a guy that could get this for you
in two catches. He doesn't necessarily need six targets to
get over twenty four and a half receiving yards.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
Obviously he can get this.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
And I would say, you know, three targets if that
so over twenty four and a half for Hollywood Brown.
Seemed a bit interesting for me, and I wanted you
your thoughts, Andy, because I was going back and forth
in this. Whenever I go back and forth, I always
want to run and buy you. How would you play
DBot today? Because we're talking about McNichols, Like, I mean,
(11:56):
I like the attempts for Mariota. Someone's going to have
to get at the ball here.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
What what are we approach? What are we thinking? Kind
of the passing game plan is going to even be
for the commanders.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
Here, it's so up in the air. It's just a
pass I there's I looked and I tried. I was like,
it's like, don't be the guy that only talks about
the chiefs. But I don't know what you talk about
receiving game Like, I don't know what you're getting from Debo?
What is what's what's what's McLaurin gonna do? Is he
gonna play? Is this gonna be last second thing where
(12:28):
he doesn't play? Or I don't I have no idea.
What's like nothing would surprise me. And that's the thing, like,
if you're gonna lose a bet, you should be surprised
by it. But if but like, would it surprise you
if Debo went for one hundred and a touchdown? No,
what it's surprises you went for two catches eleven yards?
Speaker 2 (12:46):
No?
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Like, So that's a problem. I really struggle with what
to do with these Washington props tonight.
Speaker 3 (12:52):
So you think they use him right or they wouldn't
play them?
Speaker 1 (12:59):
Yeah, and you know they're they're really they're kind of
like the Ravens. They're like teetering on the edge of
their seasons over like Washington is they can't fall, they
can't keep falling, you know, behind it with these you
know in the in the win lost cups. Same with
the Ravens. So like it's kind of like, yeah, they
probably should start Terry McLaurin if he's good to go,
(13:22):
but I don't know what he's gonna look like. You know,
it's interesting he brought up Hollywood Brown. I went to
Juju smith Shuster over one and a half receptions. He
continues to go over that. Hollywood Brown kind of worried
me last game where he went under his props and
I was like, eh, see the last one out. But
Juju Smith Shooster, it's only one and a half, so
I only need two catches. And you know, actually his
(13:43):
his his catches have gone up. So he went four,
four to two and then three in his last two games.
But you know, we're talking about all these Chiefs receiver,
they're not all gonna go over unless Mahomes throws for
you know, a bazillion yards. So it's kind of already
kind of have to you know, you have to tread
lately and almost say like which one do I like
(14:04):
the most but I do like McNichols, I think he
gets gets a catch. Yeah, you get two catches from him,
you're going over. But even one he can go over
in this one.
Speaker 3 (14:14):
A lot of time we look forwards tight ends when
we're talking about a new quarterback being put in the picture.
Obviously this isn't a young guy by any means. But
maybe Zach Ertz, maybe he's someone that we could target.
Is he someone that they'd feel comfortable, you know, getting
a couple of target His number is mid thirties, I believe.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
I don't know, Andy, Like we said, we're kind.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
Of grasping at straws here trying to find options for
the commanders. But I know you like the under on completion,
So I guess I should be the one telling you
who's gonna.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Get thrown too.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
But but I just I'm trying to figure out exactly
who's going to be the favorite of targets here.
Speaker 2 (14:46):
But we'll find it.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
Yeah, you know, Ertz is a safety blanket. He had
a big game where you know, he caught six catches,
but I watched them that it was like garbage time,
you know, Like that's the thing with Ertz, Like is
he going to be involved in the game plan as
Mario can be good enough, you know, to get him there.
Like if you start him in fantasy, you're just praying
for a touchdown because you know he's probably not getting
(15:08):
eight catches for eighty yards. You know you're probably looking
at three maybe four. So yeah, I Ertz is another one.
I don't I don't know what to do with zach Ertz.
So maybe looking under his longest reception, Mariota doesn't throw
I You know, it's funny, like I wanted to take
under Mario the longest reception. They got it like the twenties.
(15:29):
It was like they don't need the books are telling
you like Malmes is thirty eight. Mariota is like twenty eight.
So yeah, yeah, So Andrew, you and I are both
in play for clients. Tell everyone what you have up.
Speaker 3 (15:42):
I'm excited, Andy five percent play for me tonight in
NFL Action Monday Night Football here eighteen and six.
Speaker 2 (15:48):
NFL Prop run.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
We had one play on the afternoon slate yesterday and
one play on the night slate. We had Breeze Hall
with rushing yards he got to that triple digit number,
and we had Jordan Love and you had that one
as well. That's what as easy to get in the
third quarter. So can't promise tonight's play will be as easy,
but we're hoping it can be and looking forward to it.
So you guys can use the promo code save fifteen
(16:12):
take fifteen dollars off my five percent play in the
NFL WTPUS slash am once again, guys, eighteen and six
NFL prop run. Been super low volume with this, but
it's working. We're gonna stick to it. And this is
a big play on a primetime game that really stood
out to me. So fired up and let's keep this
run going. We'd love to get to twenty and six,
(16:32):
but knock on wood here, let's keep it going. And
Andy Man that Jordan Love We wish they could all
be that easy.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
Oh it was beautiful. Yeah, it was Yeah. The Jordan
Love over is passing which was in the you know,
two thirties, and it was one of those where I
looked at it and I was like, am I missing something?
This Pittsburgh Steelers defense is awful, But no, we both
had the correct read on it. Andrew, I've been the opposite.
I've been fairly high volume. We had ten plays yesterday
went six and four. It's two straight weeks with that
(16:59):
winning percent. I could not be happier. My goal was
fifty eight fifty nine percent, and being of the year,
we're almost there and we have one play tonight. I
wanted to put a couple in, but now there's just
one that sticks out above the rest. So we're gonna
rock with that one and hopefully get to this seven
and four mark. So that's up at WT dot Buzz
slash al. Let's talk about some rushing props. I'll go first.
(17:22):
I mentioned Mario. By the way, Mario's longest passes thirty
two and a half tonight. I thought I saw twenty
and a half yesterday. Maybe that changed, But Marcus Mario's
longest passes thirty two and a half. I'd take the
under on that one. But going to rushing props, I
like his under five and a half rush attempts. You know,
he went over against Vegas, but he went under in
(17:42):
his next full games against Atlanta, and I checked the
game log. He does not run as much as you
might think he did recently. I went back to his
earlier parts of the career and he would fly over.
This total used to go over all the time. But
that's not the case anymore. He's thirty one years old.
His last four starts, it's two and two to this number.
(18:02):
And I don't think there's kneel down situations at the end.
I don't think they're gonna win this game. And this
is a you know, Chiefs defense. They control the line
of scrimmage, and I don't think they're gonna be giving
Marcus Mariota a lot of a lot of leeway. And
when you watched him, he's just not that fast, like
you know who is who's faster in their thirties and
they than they were in their twenties. So I got
(18:25):
Mariota under five and a half rush attempts. What about you?
Speaker 2 (18:29):
I'm gonna go under Isaiah Pacheco.
Speaker 3 (18:33):
And I think, you know, people might be shocked by
this because the game script should implicate that we're gonna
see a lead for the Chiefs. We're gonna see them
up big, and this could be the game for Pacheco
to finally get those numbers. Padded number one. Who says
that the Commanders can't hang around in this game. You
know Andy told us earlier in the show, this is
gonna be about as desperate of a commander's team as
(18:54):
we're gonna get. They could do everything they can to
slow this game down, to make it a little bit tighter,
and to me, maybe keep this Chiefs team having to
have their foot on the gas pedal. But when you
look at this Kansaity Chiefs team, they have been top
three all year long in passing percentage, in utilization of
the past.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
They're not running the ball.
Speaker 3 (19:13):
And at start of the season, when Andy and I
were talking about this Chiefs team, we just slowly and
slowly and slowly started seeing them pretty much abandoned the run.
It just started to become inexistent. So even though the
game script says to us that this should be the
ultimate Pacheco game, I'm not buying it. And the good
news is is if he does break off on one
(19:36):
of his attempts for a huge rush and he does
go over his rushing yard's number, I don't lose until
he hits thirteen rushing attempts.
Speaker 2 (19:46):
So I could be wrong. This could be the breakout
game here for Mandy.
Speaker 3 (19:49):
But I'm gonna go on the other side and just
say just because the script says that it's a huge
point spread, and they're gonna win by a bunch, and
so the running game is gonna be there. It's still
a team that's been passing the ball all year long,
refused to run it. And right now Pacheco's number, I
think is kind of reflecting the game and not as
(20:12):
much what he's been doing over the last handful of weeks.
So under twelve and a half rushing attempts, there's two
lines out there. I see thirteen and a half and
twelve and a half. Twelve and a half obviously gonna
get a bunch much better numbers, So juice tolerance, shop around,
get the best price you can. But also you know,
if you can get that thirteen and a half, it'll
get you there. So we'll see Andy in a dream world.
(20:34):
I'd love for this to be one where he goes
off with his yards and somehow goes under on his attempts.
Speaker 1 (20:39):
For me, well, we have controversy brewing here on props
and parlays. I did my write ups last night, and
I like pachecka over eleven and a half and I
only see a couple websites that have eleven and a
half still left. They bumped it up to twelve. I
agree with your premise that the Chiefs are running, you know,
passing the ball a little bit more. To me, the
(21:01):
odd man out is Kaream Hunt. He's the guy that
I'm looking at fading. In fact, I would look at
his under six and a half, look at his carries.
The last four week, he's gone from thirteen to seven
to six to four. So I think if you're looking
at hey, who's not running the ball anymore, it's Cream
Hunt and it makes sense. I mean the eye test,
come on, he did not exactly look like he was
(21:25):
a speed demon out there. And again we gotta remember
Pacheco had a really bad injury last year. I mean
it was a broken leg and he came back looked
like a shell of himself. Did not look great earlier.
But I think he's starting to find his stride and
this is a Chief team that's going to need him
in the playoffs. You know, we get to the playoffs,
it's defense, it's running the ball. The weather's cold that
(21:45):
you can't always air it out. So I think he's
starting to settle in. I think it's over eleven and
a half twelve and a half. I don't know if
I get why you would do that. I mean, he
could land exactly on twelve and you and I both
look like geniuses. But I just you know, I think
Kareem Hunt under six and a half is actually where
I would look to unless something happens with Checko just
(22:07):
not seeing the carries there four.
Speaker 2 (22:09):
That's a good shot.
Speaker 3 (22:10):
And I like that good idea because you know what,
maybe this is the game they feed just one guy
and then even though it's the bigger number for him,
maybe he's the guy that gets all the touches. And
that's a big thing when you're looking at attempts for
running backs, like if you just like, if I get
a couple from the second option, it's huge from under.
Speaker 1 (22:27):
Right, absolutely, yeah, one hundred percent. All right, Let's look
at any time touchdown scores. I mean they're telling you
a story with Travis Kelcey at minus one ten and
I can't, I can't. I can't be mad at it.
Like Andrew we Ca we played three tight ends on
National tight End Day to score a touchdown and we
hit two of them, but they were at plus one fifty.
(22:49):
That was the other nice thing. We hit three plays
yesterday at plus one fifty. On our props. Two of
them were tight ends. So it's it's National tight End
Day or weekend, whatever you want to call it. You
gotta believe Travis kelce probably his farewell tour. Don't you
want to get him a touchdown? I think they may
go the extra mile to try and get him a
(23:10):
tight end. Other than that, good luck picking a Washington commander.
Good luck picking a Washington commander for this one. Kelsey
is the only one. And it's the chalkiest squarest bet
I've given out on the show this year. Travis kelcey
to score a touchdown on National tight End Weekend. But
I can't really, I can't really find another one.
Speaker 3 (23:30):
I like, what about you, Isaiah Pichecko. This one's kind
of ten to one first touchdown. I can see them
just absolutely march in the field, slicing and dicing the
commanders and then you know, maybe going down to the
one or two and punching it in getting checko there.
Ten to one not bad, But look, I'm gonna I'm
gonna just continue to say that. I think that when
(23:51):
you have a player, no matter what they're coming back from, uh,
they're gonna just get fed the ball and I think
if I like, if I like Rashid Rice, O'll run
his completions.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
I like him to get a touchdown. So we're not.
Speaker 3 (24:02):
Giving anybody out that's you know, in the huge plus
by any means. But I think Rice is a guy
to look at and national touchdown weekend day, week of
football whatever. It might be hard to talk you off
anything to do with Travis Kelcey. And we didn't touch
on him with the receiving yards, but that number just
was kind of weird to me, Like I could see
Travis kelce having like seventy yards tonight or twenty two.
(24:23):
Like I literally have no clue what to expect from him.
So maybe the easy route is to just look towards
him getting in the end zone. Let's be real here,
the Commanders aren't going to get shut out, you know,
or maybe they will. But we talked about Zach Ertz
being the safety blanket. Plus two forty kind of intriguing
(24:43):
for him to be maybe that touchdown guy from Marcus
Mariota agree one.
Speaker 1 (24:48):
Hundred percent on that one. He's a reliable red zone target.
I would have loved it a lot more if Jane
Daniels would have been playing but about as if Jane Daniels.
It's probably plus one sixty top fourty. Yeah, seriously. So
all right, it's time for same game parlay. Andrew and
I have not hit one of these long shot ones.
(25:09):
Maybe this is the week. All right, here's how it works.
I picked two legs, Andrew picks two legs. We put
them all together for a nice, juicy same game parlay.
I'll let you go first, Andrew. What's your first leg?
Speaker 3 (25:21):
I hope I don't steal anything from you, but I'm throwing.
I'm just gonna throw in Kelsey touchdown. I haven't been
doing a lot of touchdown props or bets on the
same game parlays. Look at the spread here, someone's gonna score.
They're gonna put numbers up on the board. And whether
he has a good day with the yardage, I think
he's still gonna find the end zone. We'll take Travis
Kelcey for the same game parlay.
Speaker 1 (25:43):
I like Pacheko over his rushing attempts. I'm actually gonna
go to a little bit of an inflated line. Give
me sixty plus rushing yards. That's plus one seventy on DraftKings.
If he breaks a long one. We're looking pretty good.
I like him to get the volume. I think Kareem
Hunt is kind of the odd man out right now.
So more volume, more yards, and I love that price
(26:03):
on Pachecko to have over sixty yards. All right, what's
your second leg?
Speaker 2 (26:09):
All right?
Speaker 3 (26:10):
For the second leg, we'll go with Rashi Rice seventy
plus receiving yards.
Speaker 1 (26:19):
Right.
Speaker 3 (26:20):
If I like the volume, if I like him to
get a ton of completions, obviously he's gonna rack up
those yards as well. We saw ten targets last week
for them, and that was a rather easy game where
the starters ended up being pushed off the field. So
if that's something that takes place in a game that
he got pulled off the field, then let's see what
he can do in a full game.
Speaker 1 (26:38):
All right, Well, my next one's gonna push to a
twenty five to one. Oh payout, pay out here, all right.
One unit we haven't really talked about is this Chiefs defense.
I love them. They're playing so good. Give me the
Washington Commanders under fourteen and a half on their team total.
The last two home games, the Chiefs have shut out
(26:59):
the Raiders and they held the Lions to seventeen points,
so we need this Commander's team to either get two
touchdowns and a two point conversion, two touchdowns and a
field goal. I just think scoring is gonna be really,
really tough. The Chiefs have looked good on defense, and
if this offense gets clicking, you can totally see them
(27:20):
running out the clock and dominating time of possession. The
Commanders have been battling injury, so that gets us to
twenty five to one. So we're looking at Travis Kelcey
anytime touchdown score, Pacheco's sixty plus rushing or she Rice
seventy plus receiving in the Commanders under fourteen and.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
A half man total.
Speaker 1 (27:40):
That gets us the twenty.
Speaker 2 (27:41):
Five one, which is the one we hit this week
out seven to one. This is the one we hit.
It's twenty five to one too. Let's go.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
I love it. I love it all right, there's our
same game parlay again. Put in the comments what your
same game parlay is or what your favorite prop is
for tonight. Tell us a degree or disagree with anything
you've seen on the show, and Andrew one more time,
tell everyone about your best bet that's up tonight.
Speaker 3 (28:05):
Five percent play tonight guys cannot wait for it. Eighteen
and six run with the player props in the NFL
promo code right there on the screen, save fifteen will
take fifteen dollars off tonight's five percent play. Look, we
always preach seven days, thirty days full season packages. If
you're someone that wants to jump on board for just
one play, make sure you use that coupon code save fifteen,
(28:28):
take fifteen dollars off. It was a two and oh
day yesterday with the player props, let's make it a
complete three and oh weekend. Looking forward to it, and Andy,
I agree with what you said. And sometimes your high volume,
sometimes you're lower. And if you can hit at that
percentage every single week, you'll be one happy man. So
you're coming off a winning Sunday and one best bet
for you as well.
Speaker 2 (28:46):
That's right, Yeah, just one.
Speaker 1 (28:48):
There was a lot up that I liked and leaned,
but there was one that kind of stood out above
the rest, so I will roll with that one. Tonight
six and four yesterday, three of those plays were plus
one fifty, So very very happy. And that's two straight
winning weeks that we've guaranteed to lock in. So another
winning week and NFL props have been one of the
bright spots for us this year. We've had, you know,
some some really good weeks. We've had some okay weeks.
(29:10):
I got to tell you just just just to be
really honest here, you know what we've avoided so far
through Week eight is just that disaster week, that week
where you just can't like pick one, like now I
got eliminated in Survivor and you know it might pick
five contests got blown to smithereens this weekend. But props wise,
like we've been high volume, we haven't had that week
(29:32):
where you know we just like really really decimated. We've
been up or we've been about even. So I'm happy
with the work that we've done. And you know, with
those plus moneys, we've guaranteed a winning week for us
this week.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
So all right, some teams I just haven't even been
involved in, Like that's what's helped me this year is
like I've seen some teams like, yeah, like when we
were doing the right now before the show and you
were like, what are your thoughts? And I was like, pass,
I really should have been saying that about like a
quarter of the league, And and that's what's giving me
success this season, I think is that I'm not saying, Okay,
(30:03):
I like that game, let's find a prop. It's like, no,
I don't like anything to do with this team whatsoever.
We're gonna stay away from you altogether. And that's helped
me out a lot.
Speaker 1 (30:11):
There's a lot of themes that pop up every single week,
just like we're fading this team, we're betting on this guy.
There's a lot of the same names that pop up.
So thanks very much for watching guys. Hit the like
button on your way out. Good looking all your place tonight,
make sure you bet responsibly and we'll see everyone next week.
Take care,
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