NFL Opening Line Report | NFL Week 13 Sharp Plays: Beat the Market Before Everyone Else!

The NFL season is in full swing as Week 13 kicks off this Thursday! How should you approach betting this week? Join Kelly Stewart and Teddy Covers for The Opening Line Report as we dissect the NFL Week 13 betting markets opening betting lines!

Intro 00:00
Purpose of Emergency Betting Alerts 00:45
What Did We Learn In Week 12? 2:56
Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions 4:24
Emergency Betting Alert: Kansas City Chiefs vs Dallas Cowboys 8:06
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens 12:30
Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles 16:15
Emergency Betting Alert: Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts 20:37
Arizona Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24:20
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans 27:09
Los Angeles Rams vs Carolina Panthers 31:20
New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins 35:30
Atlanta Falcons vs New York Jets 37:25
San Francisco 49ers vs Cleveland Browns 39:22
Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks 41:50
Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers 44:54
Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers 48:14
Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders 52:50
New York Giants vs New England Patriots 54:08

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome in to the opening line report.

Speaker 2 (00:03):
Kelly Stewart here with Teddy covers as we are every
single Monday, going over that NFL slate with you guys. Teddy,
We're going to get into it right away. We've got
lots to cover today. I've got my flashing light ready
in case we have any of those emergency betting alerts.
Shout out to you, by the way, if you guys
were paying attention last week, Teddy said, do you like
the Colts?

Speaker 1 (00:24):
Now is the time to get them three and the hook.

Speaker 2 (00:27):
That was a difference maker there yesterday for Colts backers
versus Kansas City backers. That's what we want to do here,
right Teddy, is get you that early information, tell you
where we think the line is going to go, and
if you like a side or a total, you should
be getting on it now or possibly even waiting.

Speaker 3 (00:45):
Yeah, the whole point of the emergency betting alert is
not saying, oh, you have to bet this game. It's
not saying I've got a big opinion about this game.
It's saying this line is moving. If you want to
get the best of the number, grab it right now.
If you like that side, and I think it's now
twice in the last three week where that half point
that we were talking about has made the difference between
either a win or a push, or a push or

(01:06):
a loss. And when you talk about the difference, the
little edges that make all the difference over time. You
turn two losses out of one hundred plays into pushes,
you turn two pushes out of one hundred plays in
the wins, you be shocked at what that does for
your bank roll long term. That's all. It takes little

(01:26):
edges over time. As the point of the show, and
obviously plenty to talk about today, I'm busy Monday Thanksgiving week.
Happy Turkey Day for all of you out there.

Speaker 2 (01:34):
Yeah, Happy Thanksgiving everybody. I've got my notes up from
the weekend. So Teddy really quickly let everybody know what
you got going on for Monday Night football. Every single Monday,
you put out a free play video on your page
wt Dot Buzz, Backslash, tc, So guys, you can go
over and watch his free opinion video. But you also
have a big ticket for Monday Night Football tonight, A

(01:57):
rare big ticket.

Speaker 3 (01:58):
We haven't had a lot of them this foot all season.
We got one tonight, number two all time in NFL
five percent pic tickets to wager talk. I started number one,
but someone's gotten hotter than me. Unfortunately I'm number two now.
That'll fine. I'll take it long term success. I've got
a good track record with all plays four percent and above,
a good a track record on the five percent pig

(02:18):
ticket place, and I'm in play on the total tonight
for the forty nine Ers Panthers. Get it right now
on my page wt dot buzz backslash see.

Speaker 2 (02:29):
I'm working on a promo code for you guys if
you are new here to wager talk, so let me
work on that. In the back end, I'm gonna let
Teddy talk about what we learned last week.

Speaker 1 (02:39):
Teddy, I'm just gonna let you go rapid fire. What
did we learn.

Speaker 2 (02:42):
Thursday night football through Sunday night football?

Speaker 3 (02:46):
Well, I wrote this phrase down specifically for you, Kelly,
chalk eating weasels. The chalk eating weasels did not enjoy
yesterday's gape Baltimore, Detroit, New England, Seattle, Kansas City. They
all came from behind to win and straight up fashion.
If you had the underdogs in the money line, you
were not amused with those comebacks, but none of them.

(03:08):
The Ravens, Lions, Patriots, Seahawks, Chiefs none cover the spread.
The only chalk to cover early Chicago minus two and
a half, Green Bay minus six, and then the only
chalk to cover late was Jacksonville in overtime and one
of the ugliest covers we'll ever talk about, and the
La Rams in the late game. So we saw Dallas, Atlanta,

(03:29):
Cleveland all winning outright as short underdogs nine and four
to the under this week heading in the Monday Night
football game Monday Night Football, the Rams and Bucks thirty
eight first half points, the second half only a field
goal even if you had a teaser. That game stayed
under even despite the thirty eight first half points. So
there's a little recap of what just happened yesterday. Again,

(03:52):
emergency betting alerts if we have them, I'll give them. Oh,
by the way, market the movement as we speak. Let's
start getting an of these games.

Speaker 1 (04:00):
Yeah, we love that.

Speaker 2 (04:00):
Get your odds logic screen open, guys, or head over
to the wager Talk Free odds page so you can
follow along. It is on a slight delay, so you
may not see it glowing like a Christmas tree. But
Teddy's right, there are plenty of lines on the move
right now as we speak. Let's get into those Thanksgiving games.
We have a trio of Thanksgiving games and Black Friday

(04:20):
for your viewing pleasure. Teddy starting off with the Green
Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions.

Speaker 3 (04:26):
Yeah. Sure, And like we do every week, this show
will start out we give four sets of lines for
every game. I give the look aheadlines. These are the
beedible lines on this game from last week, so we
can see how much just one game this past Sunday
affected the point spread. I'll give you my powering number
for this game, and again it's just team a TEMB

(04:47):
home field that do not factor situations in a my
powering number. So you get the look headline, you get
my powering number, you get the opener from last night,
and then we'll talk about where the money has come
for today. Since the openers with the Packers and the Lions.
Lookhead line Detroit, there were threes, there were three and
a half, so I'll call it a split line. Three
s last three and a half total forty eight and

(05:09):
a half. As a look ahead, my powering number has
the Lions minus three and a half. The markets opened
three and forty nine last night. They're sitting three and
forty nine right now. There are forty eight and a
half forty nine and a halfs out there, but we're
really number three and forty nine. So look ahead, line
my powering number opener, current number all in a very

(05:30):
similar points spread range. We look at Green Bay right now.
You know, their offense has been mediocre. The rushings okay,
the passing game has been good with Jordan Love number
six in the NFL seve point at yards per pass attempt,
where the Packers have been statistically impressive this season. On
the defensive side of the football, the defense number three
in yards per pasttempt allowed, number three in yards per

(05:51):
rush allowed, number three in yards per play allowed. Jeff
Athlete's name, the defensive coordinator, is getting bandied about for
lots of jobs, although he quit a job to take
this job is at DC. He was the Boston College
a head coach. And again Green Bay yesterday, the defense
controlling the flow against Minnesota. They forced three turnovers, They
had five sacks. You know, the Vikings had four net

(06:12):
yards and three turnovers in the second half of that ballgame.
I talk a lot about the concept of running backs
don't matter, Josh Jacobs doesn't hurt well. Emmanuel Wilson from
Fort Valley State, Nope. I never heard of it either.
I had to look it up. It's in Georgia. One
hundred and seven rushing yards, two touchdowns yesterday. That's, yes,
the highest single game total by any Packers running back
this season. Matt Lafleur after the game quote, I've never

(06:33):
called the same run so many times consecutively. It was
like three yards in a cloud of dust. But it
was effective. Bottom line. I just thought the way our
defense was playing, he took the air out of the
ball and said, go win it for us. As for Detroit, No,
Detroit number six yards for play on defense, number five
yards per pass that on offense, top ten yards per

(06:53):
rush on offense, seven point six yards for play on offense. Yesterday.
Jamier Gibbs with multiple touchdown runs long touchdown runs, including
won on the first play of overtime in that win
for the Lions. Justay, and it was their worst defensive
game of the season. I mean it really was. But
the game ended with an Agent Hutchinson sack on fourth down.
Detroit just three and three straight up two and four

(07:15):
against Spread their last six games they entered yesterday out
of the playoffs, you know, they sailed by double digits
multiple times. I was a cutty win for Detroit, you know,
Gibbs quote, it was a must win, Jake Bates hitting
that fifty nine yard field goal by the slimmest of
margins at the end of regulation, and then of course
the Lion's finding a way to win. Not so much

(07:36):
cover laying three here. I don't expect this number to
move a whole lot. That being said, yeah, it's not
going off a three. I mean, I don't see a
book moving a two and a half. I don't see
a book moving a three and a half. I expect
this line to be painted three unless we get some
injury news that I'm not expecting.

Speaker 2 (07:53):
All right, moving along to the next game, and this
one is kind of a battle of two different styles.
We have a a lower scoring Chiefs team, which is
kind of unheard of, but they've been a dead on
under team all season long and a debt on overteam.
The Dallas Cowboys is their opponent. Teddy, talk to me
about this Cowboys team once you break down the line here,

(08:14):
because you mentioned last week that the market was falling on.

Speaker 1 (08:17):
The Chiefs right. Three ended up being the right number.

Speaker 2 (08:21):
That's how much they beat the Indianapolis colts by with
a push. Kind of feels like the same thing here,
like maybe that hook is going all right? Kelly, you
know you like the Cowboys.

Speaker 3 (08:33):
Hooks matter, you know they can't matter. Look atline here,
Kansas City minus three and a half. There were some
fours out there. Total of fifty one my powering number,
Kansas City minus three and a half. The markets opened
last night Kansas City minus three and a half. Total
fifty one and a half. What do we see today,
Kansas City minus three and a half. We're seeing some
upward movement on the total. Fifty two starting to pop

(08:55):
up right now at what I would call leading indicator books,
but they're still juiced fifty one and a half to
the under at some other spots I wouldn't argue. I'm
almost tempted by saying, bet let's do it. We got
emergency betting alert, let's do it. There's fifty one and
a halfs out there, Douliut, it's one of those days

(09:17):
where I really know what we're gonna end up using
the emergency betting alerts on I Want to make.

Speaker 1 (09:21):
You be the the Duli from.

Speaker 3 (09:26):
Yeah Yeah Wayne's World reference for those of you who
like nineties movies but the bottom Line or eighty Saturday
Night Live skits. This total is getting bet up right now,
fifty one and a half last night, I'm seeing fifty
two's right now. If you like the over Detroit Dallas
Casey on Thanksgiving Day, Thanksgiving Day, you expect to see

(09:47):
over money, expect to see public money. Fifty one and
a half the best you're likely to see, like the over.
I bet it's sooner rather than later. So Kansas City
had there's sixth try and they finally on a one
score game, now one in five this year in one
score games after winning them all last year. Prior to
the win yesterday, their biggest comeback all season had been

(10:09):
rallying from seven points down against the Ravens in Week four.
Patrick Mahomes after that was a tough, greedy win. They
were minus two and turnovers. They were one of six
in the red zone. They had forty two minutes of possession.
They had ninety one offensive plays. It was just dink
and dunk all day. First downs Kansas City thirty three
Indy ten total yards Kansas City four to ninety four

(10:31):
Indy two fifty five. The box score much more dominant
in favor of the Chiefs than the game felt on
the field, and Mahomes quote, that's exactly what we needed
to win against a really good team, and the game's
not going your way. You could have folded in that
situation and kind of the rest of the season, but
guys responded. It was a do or die type thing.

(10:53):
Guys made plays happen. All five of our losses felt
like this game where there were plays we could make
and we didn't. You can talk about it all day,
but until you prove it, it doesn't matter. We proved
today that we could make the plays still. Kansas City
all in three ats, the last three all his short
favorites like they are here. Dallas just got their first

(11:14):
setup back to back wins for the season. They're five
to five and one. All of a sudden, the playoffs
are realistic option. They outgained Philly by more than a
yard per play yesterday. The defense is clearly getting better
for Dallas, and we thought that might be the case
when they were buyers at the trade deadline. You know,
first win for the Cowboys were trailing by three touchdowns
or more since twenty fourteen. Schottenheimer coach shot himber after

(11:38):
the game, you heard me say it a thousand times.
You can't win the game in the first quarter, second third,
but you can win the game in the fourth quarter.
I told them, believe, believe in each other, believe in
the fact that we'll find a way to do it.
They did. Both teams in this instance may be a
little bit fat and happy for the short week.

Speaker 2 (11:55):
All right, If you guys are just joining us a
little over one thousand of you, feel free to jump
in the comments.

Speaker 1 (12:00):
We're going through the rest of these thingsgiving games.

Speaker 2 (12:03):
Cincinnati Bengals taking on the Baltimore Ravens and Teddy I
went ahead and burn the Ravens. I brought them against
the Jensen Survivor yesterday. I had to do it. It looked
ugly for a quarter, and I really never in doubt
after that. But that's because I think this Bengals team
is starting to play better. I took the seven and
a half yesterday. If you guys were paying attention on
last call, John Murray said, hey, we need the seven

(12:24):
in the hook with the Bengals.

Speaker 1 (12:26):
Patriots made it interesting. I thought maybe maybe they were
gonna end up blowing them out. They didn't.

Speaker 2 (12:32):
This Bengals team still has some fight, and I think
in this divisional game they might as well.

Speaker 3 (12:36):
Tim I sure, I mean Thanksgiving short week, and it
looks like Joe Burrow's going to be back for Cincinnati.
The line says that Joe Burrow is going to be
back for Cincinnati. Cincinnati was Burrows in practice this past week,
and I spent a lot of time. You know, every
week I talk about the one team that I spent
a bunch of time thinking about, and Cincy this week
was a team I spent a lot of time thinking
about where I want their powering number, what my number
should be for the Bengals in Joe Burrow's first game back,

(12:58):
And of course, you know their receiving corps got banged
up yesterday. T Higgins left the game chasing as well.
There are issues, but look aheadline Baltimore minus seven total
fifty three, and of course the market's expected for to
be back this week. My powering number has the Ravens
minus seven and a half. The markets open split last

(13:20):
night seven s last seven and a half fifty one
and a half, and we've seen the seven and a
halfs get taken out this morning. There's still a couple
of them out there. Not enough for me to emergency
betting alerted because you know one guy will get it
and no one else will. But if you'll like Sincy,
you can find seven and a half's right now. I'm
not convinced they're going to be available. They're not many

(13:42):
of them, and I don't think they're going to be
available much longer. That being said, you know, Flack Goo
through a pick six yesterday and the Bengals still cover,
which is I guess a positive sign, but they're still
dead last in the NFL and defensive yards per play allowed,
they're number thirty against the rush, they're number thirty one
and yards per passive attempt allowed. And when you're thirty
against the yards per rush and thirty one against yards

(14:04):
per pass attempt, that's a problem. You know. You know,
another one and eight. Since Burrow got hurt, you know,
he practiced last week. He expected to return for this
ball game. Chase obviously had the one game suspension. Higgins
suffered the concussion. We'll have to see if either of
both of the I'm assuming Chase is gonna play. I
don't know if we're gonna see Higgins in this ball game.

(14:27):
This quote from Zach Taylor really stood out to me
because I always look for teams, the coaches talking in
the past tense, you know, and it's been a rough
year for Cincy obviously, Zach Taylor quote. Just been one
of those years where we haven't found a way at
the end of the game, and that's been frustrating. It's
important for everyone to keep at this thing and find

(14:48):
a way to get some momentum. I do not view
that as a bet on quote. Baltimore's gone from one
to five to six and five, you know, first place
now our first place tie with Steelers in the AFC
North coach Harbaugh quote, it feels great, but it's halfway done.
It's not over. SE's not over. Harmo's really worried about

(15:08):
the letdown. And of course, I mean, it hasn't been pretty.
They struggled to beat the Browns, they struggled to beat
the Jets the last two weeks. You know, Lamar Jackson
thirteen to twenty three for a buck fifty three. He's
dealing with kneest issues, he's dealing with ankle injuries issues.
Dereck Henry hasn't been all that effective sixty four yards
on twenty one carries yesterday. You know Jackson, by the way,
Lamar Jackson under two hundred ards, passing three straight games

(15:31):
for the first time in five years, back to back
games without a touchdown, pass for the first time in
six years. And again he's missing practice time. The knee sore,
the ankle sore. You know that. Being said, they've held
their last six opponents under twenty points. Remember there was
like fire oft fire ot an Devens coreator. Well, that's
their longest streak in fifteen years holding up his opponents.

(15:54):
Six opponents under twenty point in a row. This is
the exact same defense that allowed an NFL worst thirty
three points a game, thirty two points games of the
first six games of this season, the last six under twenty.
Every time, Baltimore's defense a good NOTCHI two better that
Cincinnati defense. And that's putting it mildly.

Speaker 2 (16:12):
All right, let's go to black Friday, and this is
the Chicago Bears team. I probably are Social media manager
John Hoblin an apology about I'm gonna lose my under
eight and a half wins.

Speaker 1 (16:23):
Is this Bear's team the real deal?

Speaker 3 (16:26):
So define real deal?

Speaker 1 (16:28):
I don't know, Teddy. I keep saying they're overrated. They
haven't really beat anybody.

Speaker 2 (16:32):
They keep finding ways to win football games, so I
guess that's what I mean.

Speaker 3 (16:38):
The confidence level for Chicago is through the roof. They
believe every time they're in a close game and they're
gonna win it, because that's all they've done all year.
They bought into what Ben Johnson's selling, and the markets
are convinced, Oh, it's all turnovers, it's all turnovers. It's nonsense.
I'm convinced. And you find a team or two like
Chicago every year in the NFL with a statistical profile

(17:00):
isn't pretty, and people find an excuse for why they're
winning games that isn't the You know, I would rather
be betting on Chicago than against them right now, playing
in simple fair point art.

Speaker 1 (17:11):
Are you betting on them in this game? Do you
in this game?

Speaker 3 (17:14):
Well? Exactly, let's talk about where my number is. Look
aheadline here Philly seven forty four and a half my
powering number, and I've got the Eagles ranked amongst the
the top. I think they have a matter a half
point lower than the best team in the league. But
I got Philly right at the top. My powering number
is six for this game. The market seven, you know,
off the key number. So it tells me. It tells

(17:36):
you that I'm a little bit off market on Chicago,
and I'm fine with that. I'm going to stay off
market on Chicago until proven otherwise. Open seven and forty
four and a half last night and we're seeing seven
forty four and a half the prevailing number today. There
is some variants on that total. The Bears defense has
ugly numbers. They're number thirty and yards per play all out,

(17:58):
they're number thirty and per past temp allowed. Their number
twenty nine in yards per rush of love. Those are
not bet on numbers. They were even in the turn
round then even when the turner battle against Pittsburgh, plus
the both teams lost two turnovers. But this defense is
creating turnovers every single week. It's a confident unit. The offense,
the avoiding key mistakes at key times. They're a confident unit.

(18:20):
I talked about it. The betty markets are fixated on
the turnover margin. Number one in the NFL. They're fixated
on the bad defensive numbers, but I call it missing
the forest for the trees. This team's eight and one
straight up, seven and two against the spread their last nine,
and the markets are going to continue to call them lucky.
You know, we're not going to see the betty markets
fall in love with Chicago right now. So as long

(18:41):
as they keep winning, they might be being money to
be made on this team. Caleb Williams, who didn't play
well yesterday and they still won and scored thirty one
points quote today, in the beginning, I don't feel I
got into a good rhythm. I was missing passes. It
was kind of weird. I wasn't too frustrated, like a
couple of weeks ago when I was missing past and
got extremely frustrated. I understand. I wrote my notes to
stay positive for myself, but also for the guys. I

(19:03):
think I did a solid job with that this week.
So again, Chicago wise, guys don't like them. Philly. They're
up twenty one nothing after the first three drives, and
they go three and out end of half three and out.
One first down in punt three and out missed fifty
six yard field goal. They got two first downs on

(19:23):
that drive, Saquon Barkley fumble on the edge of field
goal range, and then they got two first downs maybe
three on that drive, muff punt, no possession, one first
down in punt. Basically after twenty one and nothing, the
offense didn't work. You know, three and outs, three and outs,
miss field goals, pumbles, punts, you know, muff punts, fourteen penalties.
They did go three to three in the red zone

(19:44):
and lost the game. This offense has been running hot
and cold all year and it didn't change yesterday. But
they had lost a game with a twenty one point
lead since nineteen ninety nine. All Right, it's been a while.
Nick Sirianni quote, I'm not gonna make any sweeping joke
said this particular time where there's a lot of mistakes
that we had, some of the self inflicted wounds that

(20:06):
we have today. I'm always gonna put that on me
as a head coach. This offensive scored twenty one or
less in five of their last seven games. There's still
four and three against the spread during that span. But
it's not like the offense is clicking right now. Last
year they didn't have back to back losses all season
this year. They lost that first game, they lost again
the next week as favorites to the g Men. They're

(20:26):
in a comparable spot here on a short week against
a Bears team that continues to find a way.

Speaker 2 (20:33):
And the team that has the opposite of the short
week would be the Houston Texans. Off that nice home
Thursday night football win over the Buffalo Bills, they are
taking on the Indianapolis Colts that hey hand up Teddy.
For a better part of three and a half quarters
of that Chiefs game, I thought, I'm on the wrong side.

Speaker 1 (20:49):
I don't deserve to win this game in the slightest.

Speaker 3 (20:53):
Which side you have?

Speaker 2 (20:55):
Well, I had Chiefs minus three, so I'll gladly take
the push.

Speaker 1 (20:58):
But good grief.

Speaker 2 (21:00):
I don't know if that was more of a testament
to how poorly the Chiefs played, But I thought the
Colts looked good for three and a half quarters.

Speaker 1 (21:08):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (21:08):
I think that the Colts have been a good Another
team has been good all year, and the markets haven't
wanted to accept what they've seen with Indy. Look aheadline here,
Colts minus three and a half, forty six and a half.
My powering number came three. The markets opened three and
a half forty four and a half last night, and

(21:30):
we're seeing three and a half slash four slash four
and a half right now, forty four and a half
right now, And let's do one more emergency betting alert. Yeah,
and I know my market, my number is low on
it open three and a half, I'm seeing four and

(21:51):
a half now, But there are still plenty of three
and a half slash fours out there. If you'll like
the Colts. There's love for the Colts in the markets
this week. I bet Indy sooner rather than later for Sunday.
The Texans had that only three straight up slash ats start.
There's six and two cents the only losses coming to
Denver and Seattle. No shame there three and oh straight

(22:14):
up two and one against spread the last three weeks.
With a backup QB CJ. Stroud could be back in
the mix this week. The defense had eight sacks at
Josh Allen a game showing the interception the number two
in the NFL, and yards were play allowed. They're leading
the league in fewest points and yards allowed per game.
Will Anderson off that incredible defensive showing quote tonight was
just a perfect example of everyone just hunting, relentlessly, doing

(22:36):
whatever it takes. Obviously the divisional showdown here. That being said,
Andy they had a bad second half. You know, they
had five first downs in the second half. In overtime,
they went two of eight on third downs. They were
constantly in third and long. You know, the last first
down of the game came with three minutes left in
the third quarter. Jonathan Taylor a non factor in the

(22:56):
ball game. You know, there are again. Kansas City had
thirty three first downs. Indy had ten total yards, four
ninety four to two fifty five. The d was great.
They held the Chiefs to one to six in the
red zone. You know, I do worry about that defense
being on the field for more than forty two minutes
ninety one defensive snaps. That's a lot, and that tells

(23:17):
me that Indy's not going to be my side on
Sunday in this ball game. I'm not going to be
one of those who are gonna say, all right, let
me find the three and a half met of colts
right now. I worry about a defense that's on the
field for ninety one snaps and what they are going
to do the next week Shane Stike and quote, obviously
very frustrating on Updauris standers today. There's a lot of
stuff I wanted to call that I felt good about

(23:39):
in the past game. We just weren't efficient doing it.
It starts with me worth noting the Colts are still
three and one against US Bread as is underdogs they
covered yesterday for many betters. Their only loss was the
bad beat in La against the Rams, the one that
two to two at Well had the eighty eight yard
touchdown in the final seconds when they were trying to
get a game winning field goal and up getting game

(24:00):
winning touchdown. So Indy has been excellent on the highway here.
Obviously they're playing at home and the early money has
come for the Colts.

Speaker 2 (24:09):
All right, let's see what the early money is doing
in the Arizona Tampa Bay game. And Teddy, we're talking
about markets crashing. Are the markets crashing on the bucks.

Speaker 3 (24:20):
Well Baker Mayfield? You know this is all about the
Baker Mayfield injury. Mayfield had his arm and a sling.
Last night. We saw Teddy Bridgewater come in and Teddy
Bridgewaters you know he's a nice guy. Everyone loves him.
I don't think he's an NFL quarterback at the stage
of his career. Didn't look like one. Last night. It
looked like one or any of his last three stops
in the league. Look aheadline here was Tampa six slash

(24:43):
six and a half total forty nine and a half.
My powering number was with Mayfield seven without him three.
The markets opened two and a half forty four, forty
four and a half forty five, and that's kind of
where they're sitting. Many books do not yet have a
line posted for this ballgame. Given the QB status that

(25:07):
we don't know right now when it comes to Mayfield,
expect we'll hear something throughout the course of the day.
Arizona's loss yesterday was as demoralizing as it gets. All Right,
I'm not sure I've seen a team all year make
more mistakes than Jacksonville yesterday and win a game. You know,

(25:29):
Arizona's defense forced four turnovers, the offense had none. They
still lost the game and failed to cover the points.
Bread Jacoby Brissett said an all time NFL record for
completions forty seven completions last week in San Frand he
was brilliant again here thirty three or forty nine, three seventeen,
you know, one touchdown, no picks, but he took six sacks.
And this team's won and eight straight up their last nine.

(25:50):
Their only win came in Dallas on National TV. They're
owing three ats their last three, all us dogs. It's
looking increasingly likely that Jonathan Gann it won't be bad
or Kyler Murray or ja Kobeber said, this feels like
a house cleaning an Indian. Oh, by the way, Marvin
Harrison hasn't come back from injury either, so or appendix
is appendix burst and he hasn't played since. I have

(26:11):
to see what he does, you know. Obviously, Baker Mayfield,
the injury is a significan concern for Tampa. They're now
tied with Carolina first in the NFC South at six
and five. They could be behind the Panthers depending on
how things break tonight. If Carolina upsets San Francisco, the
Bucks will be out of first place. You know, and

(26:32):
Mayfield was what nine to nineteen for forty four yards,
two picks, Teddy Bridgewater eight or fifteen for sixty two yards,
both quarterbacks under constant pressure. The offense for Tampa Bay
one point eight yards per past at him. That's about
as bad as it gets. I would expect to see
something better than that against an Arizona team that's struggling

(26:56):
in every way.

Speaker 2 (26:57):
Right now, all right, you mentioned that that law was
demoralizing for the Cardinals. Does that mean that that win
for Jacksonville is going to help kind of catapult their season?

Speaker 1 (27:09):
Four?

Speaker 2 (27:09):
They do get a take on probably the worst team
in the NFL, the Tennessee Titans.

Speaker 3 (27:15):
Yeah, I mean so, look headline here at seven and
forty two, my powering number seven. The market's open seven
and forty two last night. I'm looking right now, I'm
seeing a mix. There are six and a halfs and
sevens out there, forty two the prevailing total. I think
we're talking about a key number. There were some positive

(27:36):
things yesterday. You know, the key number of seven. You
want to jump in on Tennessee now and grab the
plus seven. Certainly the markets are showing that they want
plus seven, but leading indicator folks aren't there. I'm not
convincing Mark's gonna move in that baggame. And so Tennessee
was down thirty to ten, and the offense got a
bit of a spark and they played hard down stocks.

(27:58):
The effort was there. If you compare the you know,
the Tennessee versus the Raiders last drive of the game,
neither team's gonna win. They're both down by two scorers,
and the Raiders letting the clock tick and dinkin and
Tennessee's like, we'rest scoring this drive. You know, the Titans
wanted it more. The back door opened with Tennessee in

(28:19):
that regard. That's how they got their only win against Arizona.
And certainly they played like a hungry team and a
team that was desperate for success when they got some
momentum in the second half of that bogging. They're still
number twenty six in yards per rush, number thirty one
in yards per past them, number thirty one in yards
per play. They're right there with the Browns, Raiders, Saints Jets.

(28:39):
The worst offense is in the NFL. I Oh, by
the way, the defense yesterday eight point nine yards per
play allowed, that large per pass, allowed five point seven
yards per rush. They give them up thirty points. You know,
cam Wards still took four sacks. He's the most sacked
quarterback in the league. You know, there's a one to
ten team and the team had the worst record in
the NFL last year. They're at the bottom. That being said,

(29:00):
they started the season two and six, ats their first eight.
One of the two covers came by a points last
half a point in Denver Week one, and the other
one came in the game where Arizona fumbled the ball
at the one yard line of the game. They were
blowing them out. Now Tennessee three and oh ats their
last three. You know, they got a punt return, touchdown,
making plays on special teams and the offense got something going.

(29:22):
You know, Mike McCoy, the intern K coach, we each
got to be more consistent. These guys fought their tails
off once again until the very end. We got to
be more consistent throughout the ballgame. Good luck with that.
And again I talked a little bit about it in
a minute ago. Jacksonville was awful in terms of mistakes. Yesterday,
Trevor Lawrence threw three interceptions, and the three interceptions one
was at first in goal from the six, the other

(29:45):
one gave the Cardinals a short field and set up
an Arizona touchdown, and then he had a fumble six
as well. So it's like a twenty one point swing
off those three turnovers, you know, chance to close out
the game taking an e no and said they throw
long on fourth and one, give Arizona time for a
game tying field goal try. And I'm not even gonna
mention the muffed punt safety late in the fourth quarter

(30:05):
that got called back. They settled for a field goal
and overtime, a classic way to lose the offense at
four turns even fourth none and they still won the game.
And the quotes coming out of the locker room, you know,
Liam Cohen, guys stepped up. Nobody flinched, nobody's walking around
with their head down and frustrated. You got to keep playing,
That's been the message. These guys close it out when

(30:26):
we needed it. Tight ends Brenton Strange quote. I'm so
proud of this team for saying steady, never giving up,
because it's been different in the past. We just keep
going no matter what. That's the important thing in a
football game. For as bad as Jacksonville played, I came
out of the game and upgraded by Jack's power reading Teddy.

Speaker 2 (30:45):
Yesterday, Baker Mayfield threw that interception that was basically a
pick six. However, you really want to call it, and
that really changed the trajectory of the game versus the
LA Rams. Was that more of a testament to the
Rams offense right now? A lot of people buying on
Matthew Stafford to win MVP. Carolina still plays tonight, but

(31:06):
now we're asking the Rams to go on the road
versus I would call them a really scrappy Carolina team.

Speaker 1 (31:11):
This was my longer shot to win the NFC South.

Speaker 3 (31:16):
Look aheadline here Rams nine and a half, forty five
and a half, My powering numbers eight and a half
for LA, the Markets nine and a half forty five
and a half last night prior to Monday Night football.
I'm seeing tens out there. Forty six is right now.
So we've seen a little bit of over money in
a little bit of Rams money since their impressive performance

(31:37):
last night. And now LA has got you know, the
number ones, currently the number one seed in the NFC
after Philly lost. You know, they'll be favored in every
game down the stretch, it looks like, including games against
the Lions and the Seahawks. You know, Stafford twenty seven
passing touchdown, it's not an interception. That is the longest

(31:57):
streak by any player since play by play data was
first tracked in nineteen seventy eight. The defense knocked Mayfield out.
They held Tampa to one point eight yards per past
them two point nine yards per play, and there were
plus two in turnovers. There's a lot to like about
the La Rams. Problem is the market thirty there rams
now factor's doing. They're not priced as one of the,
if not the Super Bowl favorites. As for Carolina Monday

(32:21):
Night Football against San fran if they win, Mark's going
to show him love tonight despite the deficiencies the forty
nine ers have shown throughout the course of the season.

Speaker 2 (32:32):
All right, let's keep this show rolling. Teddy, I did
get that promo code from our sales team. Just let
everybody know fifty percent off Teddy's big ticket Monday Night
Football promo code. Big ticket fifty gets you fifty percent off.
So Teddy, let everybody know what's going on over at
wager talk dot com. Should they buy the Monday Night

(32:53):
Football play or should they be looking to partner up
more long term?

Speaker 3 (32:57):
So we're off at two and oh NFL sweep yesterday.
We run a sixty seven percent NFL run over the
last three weeks, and I know. I came in here
last money and I was all pissed off. Well, we
want that's going to happen sometimes. But the last three
weeks have been again sixty ten percent run, so it's
been solid. Obviously, the long term trackerk in the NFL
a rock solid as well. I do have a five
percent big ticket tonight, and if you want to get

(33:19):
a play, get it and use that promo code big
Ticket fifty, get fifty percent off at check out. You
get it for half price. That's not what I would recommend.
I would say, don't buy a play, buy a package,
and we have a deal right now. Look, I'm telling
you guys. I told you guys last week. It's a
good deal. All right. This has not been a banner.
It has not been my best football season, not even close.

(33:39):
But I put the work in and I sure as
hell have him quit and I expect to make money
Thanksgiving December, January into February. We've had some real night
late season runs in years past. I expect to make money.
In college and the NFL, you can get every play
every day right through the Super Bowl. There's no bait
and switch all the college through the National Championship, game

(34:01):
all the NFL, including the Super Bowl props and everything,
three seventy five. All right, it's like the equivalent of
one big ticket a week less than one big ticket
a week. So you get my big ticket tonight for
nothing for included in that package. If you'd like to
get on board a partner up through the end of
the season, so use the promo code for tonight if

(34:24):
you just want to single play, if you want to
get on board and make some money throughout the rest
of the football season. Three seventy five, just with my
homepage WTT buzz backslash TC and I do want to
ask you guys, one simple favorite if you'll like and look.
I understand some people that want to buy play some
people have no interest. That's okay, I don't mind, that's fine.
Thank you for considering it. The one thing I will ask.

(34:47):
If you're watching the show and you like it, hit
that like button. Thank you. Problem solved. If you haven't
subscribed to the Way You Talk YouTube channel, we got
a quarter of a million, close to quarter of a
million subscribers now because they're putting out great content every day.
Subscribe right now, and of course comment below tell us
what do you think I can't promise Thanksgiving week, man,
I gotta be out of town. I can't promise I'm
gonna be in the comments answering everyone this week. But

(35:08):
I'll do my best to get in there at least
at some point today to comment, to reply to your comments.
Thank you for the likes, comments, and follows.

Speaker 1 (35:17):
All right, let's keep it moving.

Speaker 2 (35:19):
We've got probably the second worst team in the NFL.
They were favored yesterday. That would be the New Orleans Saints.
I didn't understand that one at all, and I was
sick to my stomach teasing the Falcons, and that.

Speaker 1 (35:30):
Was the easiest one I had all day. They now
face the Miami Dolphins.

Speaker 3 (35:35):
Yeah, Atlanta is one of those that in retrospect, you're like, man,
that was too easy and I didn't have them. Look
aheadline here, Miami minus four and a half, forty two
and a half my powering number, Dolphins minus six. The
market's open five and a half forty two and a
half last night, and we're seeing a mix. Five and
a half and six is forty one and a half
prevailing number in this one. As for the Saints, you

(35:58):
know they are out by one point seven yards. Per
play by the Falcons. They would zero for three in
the red zone. They had two turnovers. The offense produced
exactly one field goal for the game. The defense scored
on a Cousin's pick six. They got to the Falcons
one yard line twice and came away with three total points.
You know, Tyler shuck thirty of forty three two hundred
and forty three yards, so he wasn't completing downfield passes.

(36:22):
It was all tinking dunk and he took five sacks
in that ballgame. The Saints kicker Blake Groupe missed two
more field goals. He got eight field goal misses for
the season. If we see this again, worth noting the
Saints are now oh and two ats oh and two
straight up off a win both losso coming by double digits.
So if they win again this year, let's fade them.
And of course they're one in five against the spread,

(36:42):
the last six three and eight against the spread. Full season,
New Orleans has been a point spread disaster. Team Miami
had a point I had been a point for disastered team.
Now all of a sudden, they're three and one straight
up in three and one ats their last four. The
only loss came to the Ravens in a game that
was closer than the twenty two point final margin, would
indicate they're off a win versus Commanders, versus the Commanders
in Spain, and a bye week. That being said, Miami

(37:04):
is a favorite, Well, we haven't seen him in this
role a whole lot. They've been dogs most of this season.

Speaker 2 (37:10):
Yeah, Teddy, I'm not sure I can lay it with
the Dolphins, but the comments section sure is ready to
You mentioned Atlanta now a road favorite at the New
York Jets.

Speaker 3 (37:22):
Yeah, look, headline here Falcons minus two, thirty nine and
a half. My powering number, Falcons minus three. The market's
open two and a half thirty nine and a half
last night for Atlanta as road favorites, and that's exactly
where they're sitting this morning. Line really hasn't moved and
it hasn't gone to three, which tells you that Atlanta's
the markets are not excited about Atlanta, you know. And look,

(37:43):
the Falcons had what thirteen first downs yesterday, three of
twelve on third downs, nine penalties, Cousins threw a pick six.
They still basically dominated wire to wire, allowed only three
point eight yards for play, you know Cousins sixteen to
twenty three. You know Michael Pennix isn't coming back worth
knowing it didn't have Drake London, didn't have Kyle Pitts. Sorry,

(38:04):
they didn't have Drake London. And Kyle Pitts really wasn't
very good at a bunch of drops yesterday. We'll have
to see it. I'm not sure what London status is
for this week. In my mind, he's a type of
player that should impact the points spread by at least
a hook. It landed a lot better with him in
the lineup. The Jets scored the first touchdown and then
were outscored twenty three to three the rest of the
game against Baltimore. The lost Clints, the jets tenth consecutive

(38:28):
losing season. Tyrod Taylor quote, It definitely stings. I hate losing.
This locker room hates losing. Those guys battle their tails off,
just being efficient, consistently, consistently going out there and doing
the right things. I think we took a step in
that direction today. We just didn't finish it. Look there
were minus two and turnovers still covered. They outgained Baltimore
two eighty two to two. Forty one. The outyard per

(38:50):
played Baltimore four point nine to four point two, and
you know they got outscored twenty three to three after
in that first touchdown, So yards don't matter. Matter. The
Jets with Taylor power rated just where they were with
Justin Fields.

Speaker 1 (39:06):
All right.

Speaker 2 (39:07):
The internet went crazy yesterday over Shader Sanders, first rookie
quarterback in his first.

Speaker 1 (39:14):
Road start for the Browns to get a win.

Speaker 2 (39:18):
That was Was that more of a testament of the
Browns or the Raiders? And then again San Francisco plays
the Panthers tonight.

Speaker 3 (39:27):
Yeah, my clients and I cast with Cleveland yesterday. I
thought there was a lot of irrational hatred towards Shudor Sanders,
like he's a political flash point and people are going
crazy about it. And I thought that he affected the
points spread more than he should and the markets overreacted
to his presence. And I knew that. You know, I've
seen this line of this Raiders team, the Raiders can't

(39:48):
be laying. I cashed a ticket with the Raiders his
favorites against Tennessee, and I think it was week five
or week six, and I'm like, this is this is
a team to fade and not a team to beck
in these type of rolls. What game we talked about
Browns forty nine ers, san Fran look ahead six and
a half forty one and a half. My powering number

(40:10):
came only five for this ball game going into Monday
night markets six and a half, forty one and a
half last night, and we're seeing under money thirty nine
and a half, forty and a half this morning. Obviously,
there are still books that don't have a lineup for
this because San Fran plays on Monday night football, you know,
I mean the Worth noting. We don't know we're gonna

(40:32):
see should or standers this week, all right. Kevin Stefanski
asked if he was gonna commit with standards as a
starter or if they were gonna if they were gonna
go back to Dylan Gabriel once he clears concussion protocol.
Stefanski's quote, I'm not gonna get into that. Proud of him,
proud of this offense. There are a ton of things
to learn from, but I'm just gonna worry about today

(40:55):
Worth noting Shauldore standards. No, some of the fundamentals aren't there.
We only got stacked one time yesterday, and there was
a level of explosiveness in the Browns passing game with
Sanders where he's taking shots downfield that we didn't see
from any other QB for Cleveland so far this season.

Speaker 2 (41:13):
JJ McCarthy, what are we gonna do with this kid?
He now is a touchdown whoa even higher according to
Dan Alexander over here than the Odds logic screen. But
I don't know what to make of Minnesota. I didn't
like him yesterday. I said I can't trust him. I
thought Green Bay was really banged up. Now they're going
on the road to play Seattle, and I think Seattle

(41:34):
just kind of went to the motions yesterday against the Titans.
I used them in Survivor. I wasn't really concerned they
were gonna lose that game, but there was no real
pressure to blow out the Titans.

Speaker 3 (41:45):
They were I mean, they dominated the game and they
kind of let Tennessee in the back door. Tennessee fought,
but Seattle was comfortably in controlled. Throughout look headline here,
there were seven and a half to the prevailing number
forty three and a half. There were some sevens out
there for Seattle. My powering number is nine. The markets
opened eight and a half forty two and a half
last night. The markets took out all the eight and

(42:07):
a half. They took out most of the nines. I'm
seeing nine and a half of prevailing numbers and tens. Sorry,
I'm looking at the wrong game, looking at Vegas and
the Chargers. My apologies. Let me restate that markets opened
eight and a half and forty two and a half
last night. What we're seeing today eight and a half
slash forty two. There are no I was right, there

(42:28):
are nine and a half out there. Nine and a
half is the prevailing number for this boggain. That's what happens.
We can do a show live and you don't get
the tape and say, oh, let's redo that segment. Nine
and a half. Forty two the prevailing number right now.
So we have seen the Seattle money like I thought
that we saw, and I wasn't losing my mind up here.
The Vikings looked. They had a three and two start,
They had the week one lucky Monday Night win against

(42:50):
the Bears. Member they had nothing for three quarters and
then JJ got hot in the fourth. Then they beat
the Bengals at They're worst in the Browns that's their
three and two start. They're one in five straight up,
one in five eighteen he has since. The one win
was impressive at Detroit. But in the four losses, the
offense ten nineteen seventeen six. I don't get to twenty
in any of them. And you're not gonna win many

(43:10):
NFL games if you can't score twenty points. JJ McCarthy
yesterday eighty seven passing yards, no touchdowns, two picks, sacked
five times. In the second half of that ballgame, the
Vikings had four net yards and three turnovers. You know,
their only points came on field goals, both of which
fifty two and fifty nine yards long field goals. Kevin
O'Connell quote, we did not, in any way, shape or form.

(43:33):
We do not play in any way, shape or form
the type of second half that would give us a
chance to compete. Minnesota is a team that's crashing in
the betting markets right now, you know, really crashing. No
one believes in McCarthy, No one believes in the Vikings.
All the money that they spent this offseason improving the
roster around McCarthy hasn't mattered, and it hasn't been enough.

(43:56):
The quarterback play has been dismal, and Minnesota is a
team that it's struggling to attract betting market support right now.
That's not the case for Seattle. Eight point nine yards
for pass attempt, five point seven years per rush, a
seven point five to four point four yards per play attempt.
You know you're out gaining your opponent by more than
three yards per player. Doing something right. No turnovers, you

(44:17):
know they did allow a punt return touchdown, and worth noting.
Bad special teams make your stats look good. Good special
teams make your stats look bad because the longer fields
have to travel. They only went two and four in
the red zone. They had been eight to one against
the spread the last nine before thirty to ten became
thirty to twenty four. First time all year Seattle won,
but didn't cover the point spread, and certainly a team

(44:40):
that you know markets are crashing on Minnesota. The markets
are believing the Sea bags at this stage of the campaign.
Well until they play a good defense.

Speaker 1 (44:48):
There you go.

Speaker 2 (44:50):
I don't know if this is a good defense or not.
Buffalo is taking on Pittsburgh here. I actually don't know
what to make of the Buffalo Bills at all. I
was on the Texans Thursday night, set Ey zero.

Speaker 1 (45:00):
Money line dollars. I didn't think the Bills were gonna lose.

Speaker 2 (45:03):
That game, and they lost it in horrible fashion. I
don't know what to make of this team right now.
You mentioned Pittsburgh earlier when we talked about the Bears
game and no Aaron Rodgers, no problem.

Speaker 3 (45:16):
Yeah, yeah, I mean well, I mean they didn't win.

Speaker 1 (45:19):
No, do you think they would have won with Aaron
that either.

Speaker 3 (45:23):
The market said that there's zero point zero difference between
Aaron Rodgers and Mason Rudolph, and I don't know. That's
what I said on the show last week. I'm like,
at the most, you're gonna see a half point difference
between Aaron Rodgers and Mason Rudoff. Aaron Rodgers is a second,
third tier, fourth tier NFL quarterback at this stage. I
don't know if he's gonna play in this one. Look,
head Lie, there were three and a half's for the
Bills that were also fours out there, total forty seven.

(45:47):
My powering number Buffalo three and a half. The market's
opened three and a half forty seven and a half
last night, and that's exactly what we're seeing today. A
couple of fours popping up, but mostly three and a
half forty seven and a half four the Bills and
the Steelers. Buffalo number three offense in the NFL six
point one yards per play. Where's the problem? The run

(46:07):
defense number thirty one, five point three yards per rush
all out, and you're not gonna win a title when
you're giving up five point three yards per Russia number
thirty one against the run. They started four and oh
that four and oh start. They had the lucky win
against Baltimore, remember then, Jets Dolphin sints Since that time,
three and four straight up, three and four against the

(46:28):
spread their last seven ball games. You know Sean McDermott quote,
when they hit our quarterback twelve times. I don't like that.
I don't like that stat at all. It's not a
healthy way to play. It's not a good way to
keep our quarterback healthy. For this season. We've got to
play better. Worth noting what's wrong with Buffalo compared to
recent years turnover margin. Last year, they had eight turnovers

(46:52):
full season in twenty twenty four. This year, a little
bit more than halfway through the season, they already have
twice that sixteen turnovers last year thirty two takeaways. This
year so far, thirteen takeaways. So run defense, turnover margin,
that is what Ail's buffalo is that playing the Pittsburgh

(47:14):
strainths not necessarily, you know, because weally run the football
are great, you know, and they don't force much turnovers.
So defense number sixteen yards per rush allowed, number seventeen
in yards per pass attempt allowed, perfectly mediocre. Yet I've
been reading I read it twice yesterday. The Steelers have
the worst pass Steelers league worst pass defense. You know, No,

(47:35):
yards per pass attempt is your stat, not total yards
that you're giving up via the air. They're number seventeen
in yards per pass tempt allowed. They do not have
the worst pass defense in the league. They are number
twenty two in yards per play on offense. Mason Rudolph
after the loss quote, there's never been panic here. We've
been Pittsburgh Steelers long enough to know that when we're behind,
down on the division and up, it's a natural ebb

(47:57):
and flow of the season. I'm confident in our guys
to keep fighting and up on top. Yes, they're confident.
Pittsburgh still in the mediocre to good category, not the
good to great all.

Speaker 2 (48:10):
Right, I'm going to use the Chargers for Survivor this week, Teddy,
because it just makes the most sense. They're taking on
the Las Vegas Raiders, and as we mentioned earlier in
the show, none of us want anything to do with
this Raiders team, but they are catching a ton of
points here. Do you think this line is over that
teaser number for a reason? Does it deserve to be

(48:30):
that higher the books? You say, Nah, we don't want
any part of Chargers teasers this week.

Speaker 3 (48:34):
I'm sure the books don't want any Chargers teachers this week,
and I'm sure the books are going to be sided
with Charger money this week. From a situational standpoint, it
really stands out. Look headline here eight and a half
forty two and a half, my priority number ten and
a half. The market's nine and a half forty one
last night, and that's mostly what we're seeing today. There
are some tens that have already popped up. The Raiders
beat the Patriots on opening Day. They're one and nine

(48:57):
since the one game versus the Titans and Iron Remember
that game, all right? The Raiders were not the right side.
They were lucky to hang on for the win and
cover they won twenty to ten. It wasn't pretty all right.
Home field, there's no home field that allegian. The Browns
fans were louder than the Raiders fans yesterday. They have
only one spread cover and defeat again during this one
to nine stretch. That was that ten to seven Thursday

(49:18):
night game in Denver. The offense has been held to
sixteen points in the last four times. In the last
five games, Chip Kelly I wrote this before he got fired.
I'm like Chip Kelly, the worst off of the coordinator
in the league this year. Then ikkanith Ben, I'm like
Tip Kelly fired, which leaves the Raiders with no continuity
on offense and who the hell knows who's gonna call
plays this week? Gino got sacked ten times yesterday. The

(49:39):
Vegas allowed twenty sacks over the last three weeks. They
punted eight times, turned it over on downs twice, and
lost a fumble. That's no way to win a football game,
Max Crosby, Everyone's gonna be searching for answering solutions when
things are not going exactly well. Unfortunately, we're just not
good enough right now. It's been pretty clear that's the
reality of it. You know agree, the Chargers off a

(50:00):
bye and a blowout loss in Jacksonville, and you read
the quotes again before the bye week quote, when you
lose a game like that, you want to go out
there and you want to get that taste out of
your mouth. It's justin Herbert. It's tough because now we
have to wait two weeks to get back and play.
The rest could be good for us, but it wasn't
good for us at all the game. So urgency for

(50:22):
the Chargers off a really bad showing harball quote. Offensive,
we weren't running the ball well, we weren't protecting, we weren't
getting open Defensively, the same weren't stopping the run. We're
losing coverage. I mean, you go through every phase. We
got beat every which way you care to beat. So
the Chargers, who we were supposed to come in here focused,
I mean the Raiders who are supposed to come in
here like one of the if not the worst team
in the league. If I'm playing, I'm laying cash against

(50:45):
the Raiders yesterday, would have no hesitation betting against them
against the Chargers team that should be ready to play
in this one and dominated the first meeting despite their
offensive line issues.

Speaker 2 (50:56):
Teddy really quickly because I know we're up against it.
But you said something that made me kind of question,
who are your bottom three teams power rating wise in
the NFL as it stands on November twenty fourth. Here,
I just have to know because these are certain teams
as we get later onto the season, maybe you don't
want to as the queen of underdogs, if you will,

(51:19):
and betting on not great teams. Sometimes you just have
to say, all right, these teams have not Caughton up
with the market with actually how bad they truly are?

Speaker 3 (51:28):
Bottom five Arizona, Las Vegas, the Jets, the Saints, the Titans. Okay,
that's my bottom five. But one or two of those
teams will make your money down the stretch, and the
other three, probably four won't, you know, so you gotta
I don't think you can blanketly say fade them all
it's a team by two.

Speaker 1 (51:49):
I don't think it's that.

Speaker 2 (51:49):
But sometimes I think, especially with the NFL, like you
said yesterday, you went to and Oh because you were selective.
You played the two games that you had the strongest
edge on, and sometimes when you're picking five for the
super contest, they can get a little convoluted, just kind
of know to leave some of these bad teams on
the sidelines, if you will.

Speaker 3 (52:06):
So that's again, that's why I used to play contests,
and I found that it ft with my handicapping. You know,
I don't play Survivor. I don't play the pith Thik
pick the pick five every week, and I don't do
those contests anymore because I don't want to be thinking
about one game. I don't want to be thinking about
five games. I want to be going through the card

(52:27):
naturally and that it helps me. It doesn't. Maybe it doesn't,
I don't know, but I love it in my head
it does. And of course this week there's no buys
this week, guy, So we got the show's gonna run
at a little longer two games ago Sunday night and
Monday night.

Speaker 2 (52:42):
So yep, let's talk about the Washington Commanders and the
Denver Broncos. I know I bashed the Bears, and I
know I bashed the Patriots, but I said that the
Broncos were my second most fraudulent team, and I am
a Denver Broncos fan, so I'm allowed to say that.
As the market got the little too heavy, here on
the Broncos coming out of that buy.

Speaker 3 (53:01):
No, I mean, I don't think the Broncs are frauden
at all. I think Denver is absolutely live to make
some noise in the postseason, just like they did in
the regular season. Look aat line here, Denver minus six
and a half, forty three and a half. They're like
the Bears of the AFC in terms of the markets
don't respect them and the level of play deserves some respect.

(53:21):
Six and a half forty three and a half. Look
aad line, my powering numbered Denver seven. The markets opened
six and a half forty three and a half last night,
and that's exactly what we're seeing today. Both teams coming
off buys. You know, the Commanders coming off that awful
loss to Miami. You know, the last four drives in complete,
passed it to Miami, one yard line, stopped on downs,
muff punt, missed field goals, interception of the first play

(53:41):
off overtime, and the defense give up one hundred and
sixty nine rushing yards at five point five yards per carry.
As for Denver, they had one hundred and forty seven
penalty yards and they were one for five in the
red zone. And they still beat Kansas City. Maybe hat
and fat and happy eight game winning streak went into
the buy office signature win versus their big, old, biggest rival.
That's not necessarily a bet on coming out.

Speaker 2 (54:04):
All right, fair enough Monday Night football, Teddy, the New
York Giants and Jamis Winston were sure exciting yesterday, at
least from a survivor's perspective. I was joking that I
was gonna have to change my dog's new name to Jamis, because.

Speaker 1 (54:18):
Holy cow, did he well? He looked like good Jamis.

Speaker 3 (54:22):
How about they he balled out yesterday.

Speaker 2 (54:24):
He was great, and he's one of my favorites for
a magnitude of reasons. But I was really glad that
the Lions pulled out the wind for survivor purposes.

Speaker 1 (54:32):
New England, I said it earlier.

Speaker 2 (54:34):
I thought that they have superseded expectations, they have superseded
the market. I feel like it's the easiest thing to
do here on Monday Night to tease the New England Patriots.

Speaker 3 (54:45):
I'm sure you won't be alone in that regard. Look
aheadlined here seven and a half forty six and a half.
My powering number comes nine and a half for this
ball game, so it's higher than the markets. I'm not
sure if I haven't raise my Giants powering enough. Maybe
that's the issue here, because I know I don't think
I'm off marketing on New England market seven to seven

(55:05):
and a half last night where they opened forty seven
and a half. We have seen under money come in
on this one forty six and a half, prevailing total
markets still sitting at seven and a half. So really
all we had of those first two emergency vetting alerts
and not much else on Thanksgiving week. The Giants are winning,
are covering games like this. They're one and five in
games decided by a touchdown or less. Boy, this team

(55:26):
can find a way to lose. You know, defense at
Lake meltdown and then forgot to show up for overtime.
Sixth straight loss for the Giants. Fifth time this season
they've lost by leading in the after leading in the
fourth quarter. Fifth time this season where they've lost after
leading by double digits. Ouch. Mike Kafa going forward on
fourth goal from the sixth with his team leading by

(55:49):
three points late. It's kind of taking a short field goal.
Don't know that that decision was the right one. His
quote We're trying to win the game, so we want
to score as many points as possible. We thought there
was a place to be aggressive. Don't know yet if
we're gonna see Jackson Dart back in the lineup this week,
that is the possibility. Patriots have nine straight games where
they scored at least twenty three and allowed twenty three

(56:11):
or less every time. The only team in the history
of the league to do that that was the AFL,
the nineteen sixty one Houston Oilers did that. So the
Patriots do was some you know. I mean Even's got
gassed on the ground yesterday. Give him five point two
yards per carry. They suffered multiple injuries on the offsive line.
The left guard Jared Wilson the left tackle Will Campbell
both carted off the field. Those are concerns here. They

(56:34):
started the same offsive line ten times the first eleven games.
Stefan Diggs quote, back to the grind because who didn't
play our best football? Obviously didn't coverysay, did not play great,
But be happy about the ten wins because that shit
is not easy to do. He's right about that. But
the g men who have played better than expected, well,

(56:54):
they have a chance perhaps here against the Patriots team
that has found ways to games in the same way
the Giants have found way to lose them.

Speaker 2 (57:03):
All Right, that has been the week. What is week
thirteen in the NFL? That is crazy to say out loud?
Teddy covers Kelly Stewart. This has been the opening line report.
Hangout up next? Wager Talk today with Andy Lang.

Speaker 3 (57:19):
Yeah, and what's that promo code? Call for the money