Get ready for the 150th Run for the Roses with top handicappers Marco D'Angelo, Kelly Stewart, and Sean Alvarez! Direct from Las Vegas, this powerhouse trio breaks down the 2025 Preakness sharing expert predictions, longshot picks, and betting strategies to help you cash in on the biggest race of the year.
Introduction 00:00
Why Does Marco Like the Preakness 00:25
Why Would a Horse NOT Chase a Triple Crown? 02:45
Promo Code MD10 05:15
No. 1 Goal Oriented (Marco) 05:55
No. 2 Journalism (Sean) 07:45
No. 3 American Promise (Marco) 09:49
No. 4 Heart of Honor (Sean) 13:14
No. 5 Pay Billy (Marco) 14:45
No. 6 River Thames (Sean) 16:27
Sean's Full Premium Preakness Card 18:32
No. 7 Sandman (Marco) 18:55
No. 8 Clever Again (Sean) 20:50
No. 9 Gosger (Marco) 22:45
Sean’s Top Selections for The Preakness 24:40
Marco’s Top Selections for The Preakness 28:18
Who are your top horses? 33:00
Introduction 00:00
Why Does Marco Like the Preakness 00:25
Why Would a Horse NOT Chase a Triple Crown? 02:45
Promo Code MD10 05:15
No. 1 Goal Oriented (Marco) 05:55
No. 2 Journalism (Sean) 07:45
No. 3 American Promise (Marco) 09:49
No. 4 Heart of Honor (Sean) 13:14
No. 5 Pay Billy (Marco) 14:45
No. 6 River Thames (Sean) 16:27
Sean's Full Premium Preakness Card 18:32
No. 7 Sandman (Marco) 18:55
No. 8 Clever Again (Sean) 20:50
No. 9 Gosger (Marco) 22:45
Sean’s Top Selections for The Preakness 24:40
Marco’s Top Selections for The Preakness 28:18
Who are your top horses? 33:00
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome into pony Pundits. My name is Kelly Stewart, joined
by Sean Alvarez and Marco DiAngelo of wager talk dot com.
Today we're breaking down the one hundred and fiftieth Preakness. Guys,
this's kind of my favorite race for a magnitude of reasons.
One because I hit a trifecta in about twenty fourteen.
I'm still living off those winnings. That was a fun one,
(00:23):
and so it has kind of a different feel than
the Derby. Marco, why do you like the pregnous? We
know that the Derby's the grande of it all, it
gets all the attention, but the Preniffen's kind of like
my like secondary. This is a really fun race to watch.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
Well, if you've ever gone to a Preakness, which I
haven't because and I probably never will now because I
am way too old to partake in the festivities of
the infield of piblico. But that is an experience from
people that I've talked to firsthand that you must try sometime.
But Kelly, this is uh the second leg of the
(01:01):
Triple Crown, and usually there's a lot of excitement with
this race, just as much excitement as the Kentucky Derby
because we still have the possibility of a triple Crown,
except this year because the Kentucky Derby winner has decided
to bypass the Preakness and point towards the Belmont. So
(01:21):
we have no possibility of a triple crown winner this
year and that takes a little bit of the luster off.
And I can guarantee you you talk to any bookmaker
here in town is we both do on a lot
of shows that we do. None of them are happy
because that really hurts the handle for them. On a
Saturday in May for the Preakness, we know that if
(01:44):
there's no Triple Crown, the Belmont, the final leg of
the Triple Crown was just another Saturday race in the sportsbook.
Nobody really cares. But hopefully this year we get some action.
We've got some popularity with some horses. Obviously Journalism was
the beaten favorite in the Derby. That'll get us he's
(02:05):
got a chance for redemption. And then of course and
Sandman with the social media following that he got that
horse got totally over bet in the Kentucky Derby, simply
because of the power of social media. Is social influencer
that has you know, a million followers. Well they were following,
and they were betting, and he finished up the track.
(02:27):
So a lot of subplots in this year's Preakness.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
I do love fading in almost every single sport, the
favorite on social media right, whether it's a square dog
or a square horse.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
Sean.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
One thing I wanted to ask you before we get
into it is kind of touched on what Marco said.
I saw a lot of chatter on social media about, hey,
there's a great reason why some horses should not be running,
mainly because of a stud fee. But then Marco just
mentioned he will be running in the Belmont. Can you
tell me why these horse owners aren't trying to chase
a triple crown? To is it does not matter anymore?
Speaker 4 (03:02):
Yeah, I mean I'm not sure that, you know, not
necessarily it doesn't matter. But you know, before American Pharaoh,
the last triple crown winner was you know, back in
the seventies with I believe it was citation. So it's
not necessarily the easiest thing to do. And you're looking
at these horses that are just going into their you know,
three year old campaign with starting in you know, February
(03:22):
March April just to try and qualify for the Kentucky Derby.
So it is a very taxing kind of you know,
three to four months leading up into the Kentucky Derby
and then two weeks they turn right around and you know,
ship up to Maryland into Baltimore and try to race
for the Preakness. So it's definitely not the easiest thing
to do. And you know, I tip my cap to
(03:44):
the trainers and the owners that don't necessarily force their
horses into these big races just for you know, the
fame or like you said, you know, stud fees later
when you're a Preakness winner or black type placed. But
they're taking care of their horses, and you know, in
previous years, we've seen a lot of you know, three
year old champions, Triple Crown winners, whether it was American
(04:05):
Pharaoh would justify, but we've seen a lot of you know,
higher in three year old colts immediately go to studying
after their three year old career. So while I completely
agree with what everybody's saying, I wish we had the
Kentucky Derby winner in this race so that at least
we had a little bit of a freakness or triple
Crown possibility. But you know, with that being said, I
(04:29):
hope that a lot of these you know, three year
olds that we see running in these triple Crown races,
you know, we start to see them race into their
four and five year old careers, maybe even get more
stakes placed and more stakes you know, wins in their career,
which would eventually bump up their stud fee. But with
that being said, you know, it's still you know, these
horses cost a lot of money, you know, and owners
(04:50):
and trainers don't necessarily want to gamble if you will
on you know, those horses not getting hurt and affecting
their stud fees later on. So it's really you know,
a double edge sword on you know, giving yourself a
possibility win the Triple Crown, but also taking you know,
the best best care you can of dot ors.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
Very good point as the gambling trio here, I understand
why I think it seems like a good idea to gamble,
But those guys are businessmen, and who would know better
than Marco D'Angelo who actually breeds and racist horses, been
doing so since before I was born. Marco, congratulation, you
nailed the Kentucky Derby for your clients, and I'm hoping
you could do the same for the Preakness m D ten.
(05:33):
That is, your coupon code gets you all of Marco's
selections for the Preakness, MLB, NBA, and NHL playoffs, of course,
thirty nine bucks, and you're gonna save ten dollars with
coupon code m D ten Marco. Let's get into this
nine horse field significantly smaller, of course than the Kentucky Derby.
Let's just go right down the post position line. Start
(05:55):
off here with goal Oriented.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
Yeah, goal orient.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
It is Bob Bafford's replacement for Rodriguez. If Rodriguez wouldn't
have got scratched out of the Kentucky Derby, odds are
he probably would not have raced Goal Oriented in this race.
It would have been Rodriguez's race. But he's in here.
This is a late blooming three year old colt. This
is only gonna be his third career start. What makes
(06:19):
it even tougher than that is his first start wasn't
until April sixth, so you're asking his horse to make
up a lot of ground against these horses that are
much more seasoned than he is to pull off an
upset here, but he does have a big shot and
the reason why the first two starts he had he
put up ninety one buyer speed figures. Those are pretty
(06:43):
impressive numbers out of the shoot. Also his racing style.
He's got the rail. Flavian Pratts got one choice with him,
and that is to bust out of the gate and
go to the lead, get to the first turn with
the lead, and try to control this race. That's going
to be what I see happening him with another horse
(07:04):
on the front end if it gets soft fractions. This
is a horse that could hang around for a long time.
We've seen Bob Baffort do this in the past. The
problem is these are going to be seasoned horses that
are gonna be sitting off his back. I think he
can hang on in this race for the exact or
the try effecta but I just don't see this horse
(07:24):
having enough seasoning to be able to beat some of
the better horses in this race. But don't just totally
pitch the horse. He definitely is on the exotics, exactives
and tries.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
All right, let's go into the Kentucky Derby favorite that
is journalism. I know a lot of us had him
in our exact as and our trifectors and our super effects.
Let's hear about him here as well. Pretty close to
the odds on favorite. Umberto is my dad's new favorite jockey,
even though he did not win the Kentucky Derby. It's
(07:58):
funny to see how some of these and or owners,
there's allegiances here in sports betting, and my dad has
a ton of allegiance towards a couple of those guys,
but a few of them have retired at this point
in time. So he has a new fan favorite here
at Umberto.
Speaker 4 (08:11):
I love that, you know, jump onto one of the
hottest jockeys in the country, and yeah, the number two
journalism coming out of that Kentucky Derby race as the
post time favorite. You know, it's still a short price
to swallow at eight to five, but this is the
best three year old in this three year old cult crop,
so and that's well warranted. With his buyer speed figures.
(08:34):
He ran a really good race, jumping up to a
big one oh eight buyer speed figure in the Sam Felipe,
but he just hasn't really taken that step forward again
since then you look back in the Kentucky Derby, he
had a little bit of a rough trip early on,
but you know, as we've spoken about before in the
Kentucky Derby, it's not about getting the perfect trip, it's
(08:54):
about working out the trip that you get. And he
ran a big race, but you know, Sovereignty ran a
bigger race, and you know there's not a lot as
far as the buyer speed figures go, that can't compete
with journalism. And he's also going to sit that you know,
really tactical middle trip, So there's not a lot to
knock about this post tart or this morning line favorite. However,
(09:16):
he is wheeling back in two weeks. Michael McCarthy not
necessarily the trainer in mind when you know wheeling his
horse's back. He does have a decent clip rate at
twenty two percent, but he only has twenty three starts
wheeling back in those fourteen days, So you know, a
big step up for this for this horse, kind of
doing something that he's never done before. So if you
(09:38):
want to knock a hole in the favorite, that would
probably be what I would lean on. But you know,
he's a well deserving morning line favorite as easily the
best horse in this field.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
All right, let's get into American promise here, Marco, this
was another horse that I think got quite a bit
of love last go around. Talk to me about Nick
Warez and why maybe you think they have a shot
to win this whole thing.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
Well, Kelly, when I look at this horse and you
hit the nail on ahead about this being the wi
Sky horse in the Kentucky Derby, a lot of people
were loving this horse. I personally did not like this
horse going into the Derby, but I actually like this
horse going into the Preakness.
Speaker 3 (10:17):
And I'll explain why.
Speaker 2 (10:19):
Most people are gonna look at the racing form and
look at that performance into Kentucky Derby, see that the
horse finished way back and was a big disappointment. And
to quote our partner in a horse that you and
I own, Kelly, our buddy Johnny Detroit, They're gonna look
and say this horse should be heading to the glue
factory after that Kentucky Derby race. But now I got
(10:43):
to explain why, just like I have to do to
Johnny after every race when we don't win the horse.
If you watch the replay and looked at what happened
to the horse in the race. You can understand why
the horse back.
Speaker 3 (10:55):
Through the field.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
First of all, when the gate sprung, this horse isn'ts
was to go towards the lead. Unfortunately, he got hit
coming out of the gate, which had Nick Morez to
have to go to plan B. Plan B was an
immediate left hand turned to the rail to try to
save ground. Well, when he was down at the rail,
he had he pushed the panic button because he didn't
(11:19):
want to get caught way back at the rail and
tried to rush the horse up into contention. He was
too close to a very hot, contested pace into Kentucky Derby.
The fractions were too fast. That's what set it up
for the horses that came from behind. Not only was
he too close to the pace, but then he made
(11:39):
a move trying to split the two horses in front
of him that were on the lead. When he tried
to split those two horses, he went right in between
the two horses and it closed up and he had
to check the horse. You can't check a horse and
lose his momentum. So he got hit at the start,
went to the rail, was used to hard to get
(12:00):
into contention, then tried to make a move, then was
checked and then back through the field. Well, once he
was back and through the field, people are gonna overreact
to that.
Speaker 3 (12:09):
The only smart.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
Move were as made in that was once he knew
he wasn't gonna get any money into derby, quit riding
on the horse. Save the horse for his next race.
Now people will look at that race line and say,
is there something wrong with him? Well, you got your
answer that there's nothing wrong with him because he's right
back in in two weeks. D Wayne Lucas is a
(12:32):
Hall of Fame trainer. He's not gonna run a horse
back in two weeks. If the horse is not healthy
and fit and ready to go, I think you're gonna
get a big price on American promise. Don't pitch the horse.
I think he can make amends in this race. There's
not a lot of speed in here, and if he
breaks from the gate cleanly, he's gonna be sitting right
behind the two pacesetters on what I think they're gonna
(12:55):
be moderate fractions, not suicide fractions in this race. He
can hang on be a big part of the ticket
at a price all right.
Speaker 1 (13:05):
Fifteen to one is kind of speaking more of my language.
And of course people love, you know, horse names, right,
there's a couple here back to back.
Speaker 3 (13:14):
Part of Honor just kind.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
Of speaks to me, and I'm like, I love that name.
But neither one of you guys put that horse in
your selections for this video, Sean, can you tell me why?
Speaker 4 (13:26):
Yes, So this is the horse coming over from Dubai.
We kind of more talk about that, you know, that
trip over from Dubai or even over from Japan leading
up into the Kentucky Derby. But we've got another one
here that ran second to Admire Daytona, and that was
one of the top Japanese horses that ran in the
Kentucky Derby. However, the Admyer d'Antona ran dead last in
(13:49):
the Kentucky Derby. So his form isn't necessarily being backed
up with that second place finish in the UAE Derby
back in April. So I don't necessarily like it form
coming into this. His trainer isn't necessarily known for bringing
his horses over into North America, and now the horse
is kind of stepping up into not necessarily the toughest company.
(14:10):
It's not you know, a Kentucky Derby type field. But
you know, we still have the likes of Journalism River Thames,
you know, and the likes of others that are just
a little bit better than those type of crops. So
I don't necessarily like his form. I hate the trip
of coming over. If anything, I like the trip coming
over and getting a race, you know, under his belt
before jumping up into a race like the Preakness. So
(14:32):
I don't like what he did in Dubai. I don't
like the shipping angle, and you know, I think the
trainer maybe not necessarily over his head, but you know
he's stepping up into class as well.
Speaker 1 (14:45):
One of the longest odds horse here twenty to one.
But my favorite name on the list Marco pay Billy
another horse neither one of you have on your list
or you know exact as or tries Marcot. What's going
on with the horse in position number five?
Speaker 2 (15:02):
Well, Kelly, if you like this name, paid Billy, is
that one of your bookies or you have to pay
Billy all the time or what you shouldn't like that name?
You should want to, you know, be paid by Billy.
But this one, pure and simple, This is a local horse.
Every year, you'll see one horse that'll get into the
Preakness with local connections and high aspirations and just literally
(15:24):
no shot. And that's what paid Billy is. The horse
has had eight career starts. He has improved every single
race with his buyer speed figure over the last six
that's a good sign. The problem is his highest speed
figure is eighty five. He's gonna need about fifteen more
points to be in contention to win the Preakness. And
(15:47):
what it's going to take to win this race, and
the fact that he has eight career starts.
Speaker 3 (15:51):
We talked about that in the Derby.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
I don't like horses that, you know, enter the Derby
when they've got eight, nine or ten starts already because
they basically are what they are. They're not going to
make that big jump that you'll see with horses that
only have two or three starts in of nowhere near
peaked yet. This horse is what he is. I don't
see him. He's pure and simple, just not fast enough.
(16:15):
It's a nice story, local owners, local connections, the horses
racing well, but he's been doing it against very mediocre competition.
Pass for me, all right, Sean.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
The horse currently as the odds on favorite you and
Marco both have on your list River Thames. Is this
the horse that's gonna win the whole thing or are
they just getting a little too much love in the
marketplace and you should just be putting them in your
exact as and tries.
Speaker 4 (16:40):
Yeah, this is another horse that I definitely like, like
you alluded to, and I'm glad Marco does too, because
I didn't like Sovereignty, so he's one up on me
in the Triple Crown races so far. But this is
another horse that has that tactical speed very similar to journalism.
He's not necessarily a need the lead type of horse.
He breaks well from the gate and he gets into
(17:01):
stride well. So I really like the fact that he
doesn't need a quick pace to run into and if
they slow down then he's you know, in touch with
those type of leaders to be able to make that
first run and try to run down you know, whoever's
on the lead, and the likes of journalism. So I
do really like the tactical speed of this horse. You
have a really good human connection in Todd Pletcher and
(17:22):
Irad Ortiz, and we spoke about sovereignty the Kentucky Derby
winner kipping the Preakness. This is a horse that had
enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby, and the
ownership and trainer figure thought to themselves that this is
what they said. They said, the Kentucky Derby isn't for
this horse. We're gonna skip it. The Preakness is a
(17:42):
little bit of a better spot for him. But if
he watch his Bluegrass race, he just didn't look like
he was getting into stride very well. He technically looked exhausted,
his ears were pinned back, but he never gave up
and he ran a really good third place finish behind
Burnham Square in that race and East Avenue, you know,
horses that we liked kind of going into that Kentucky Derby.
(18:04):
So I do like that that third place effort last
time out, and he's got three you know, uh listed
works on his worktab, you know, working well leading up
into this. I like the fact that it wasn't necessarily
a scratch in the Kentucky Derby. They wanted to give
this horse a little bit of time off. Let's target
the Preakness. Maybe we go to the Belmont after that,
but we think our best shot is in the Preakness.
(18:26):
And you know who am I to argue with the
likes of Todd Pletcher.
Speaker 1 (18:30):
All right, if you are looking for Sean's full card selections,
that's right, that's Black Eyed Susan Day there on Friday
and of course Saturday for the Preakness. Sean has all
of his wagers up on a wager talk dot com
right now, wt dot buzz backslash saw. No coupon code
is going to be needed here, guys, just thirty bucks
(18:51):
for his Friday and Saturday selections.
Speaker 3 (18:54):
Marco Let's talk.
Speaker 1 (18:55):
About Sandman, we kind of laughed, kind of alluded to
at the beginning of the show. Show a lot of
people love this horse and the Derby and it became
a square horse if you will. Right now, currently sitting
out four to one in the seventh post position, and
you left him off your list once again.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
I did, And Kelly, this is a horse that you
should absolutely love because Sandman tweets well, he does tiktoks well,
and it's all thanks to Griffin Johnson, part owner in here,
a social influencer. And you know, as far as it
going for the sport of horse racing, I love it,
you know, it's bringing new eyeballs to the track, and
(19:35):
it's bringing younger eyeballs. But as far as value, Sandman
was over bet in the derby, he'll be over Bet here.
Speaker 3 (19:45):
Never fired in the Derby.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
The only excuse that he can make is well, that
was his first time on a sloppy track and.
Speaker 3 (19:52):
He didn't like it. Well, there were.
Speaker 2 (19:54):
Other horses in that race that it was the first
time over a sloppy track too, and they did pretty well.
I can't make an excuse for him. This is one
of those horses that also has a lot of starts,
so he is basically what he is at this point
in his career. He got the perfect setup in the
derby because they went fast fractions. That's what you want
(20:17):
to see for the closers, and it worked out well
for Journalism and Sovereignty. And when Sovereignty started his move,
guess who was right next to him, Sandman, and he
left Sandman.
Speaker 3 (20:29):
In the dust.
Speaker 2 (20:30):
So this is a horse that you know, Yeah, can
he run on the very bottom of the ticket if
you're using tri effectives in the third spot superfectives in
the fourth spot. Yeah, But I don't see him as
a contender to win this particular race, so he's not
on my top four, as you'll find out in a
few minutes.
Speaker 1 (20:50):
All right, clever again in the eighth spot here with
my favorite jockey Jose Ortez Sean Alvas. Breakdown this horse
and if you think have a shot to win it all?
Currently five to one.
Speaker 4 (21:04):
Yeah, So this is the horse that you know, Marco
kind of alluded to when speaking about the number one
Clever again or I'm sorry, go oriented the number eight
clever again at five to one. This is another one
of those speed horses that could either clear the field
or you know, give a little bit of fits to
that Bob Baffert trained horse on the rail. He's very
quick out of the gate and like I said, you know,
(21:25):
said about other horses, he gets into stride well and
he's got a very high cruising speed. My only real
knock about the horse is he's coming over from the
eighth spot. If the Baffert horse breaks well from the gate,
he's also quick. Journalism's quick out of the gate. The
number six River Thames is quick out of the gate,
so you know it's really going to be you know,
let the horse break. Let's see what he does and
(21:48):
what other horses do can or does he have enough
speed to make it over and clear that field or
does he have to sit off? Because if the number
one breaks quick and you know sets, you know set's
you know point for that lead, and the number eight
and Jose tried to do the same thing, I think
they're gonna be cooking quick early and I think that
that's gonna really hinder both of their chances. So definitely
(22:11):
a player, And like I said, especially if the number
one doesn't break well. The number one's kind of been
not necessarily known to not break well. He only has
two starts in his career, but has been kind of
left at the gate before and then got into that
cruising speed. So it's really gonna really depend on how
they break out of the gate because I don't necessarily
(22:31):
like Clever again's chances. If he has to set off
the pace, they haven't necessarily tried to do it, but
he hasn't shown to do it. And now he's gonna
jump up from a listed stakes race into the Preakness.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
All right, Marco, the name of the horse that is
gonna screw me up?
Speaker 3 (22:47):
Gozger?
Speaker 1 (22:48):
What is the Gosger? And who came up with his name.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
I think it's actually named after a baseball player. Sean
would know more, being the uh baseball guy with memorabilia.
But this is a lightly raced three year old only
three career starts. The problem is in those three career starts,
he does have two wins in a second But his
two wins, the first one was came in a second start,
(23:15):
a maiden race. Okay, so again those can be good,
those could be soft fields. But then his second win
did come in a state race. However, it was the Lexington,
and I don't know how Sean feels about this year's Lexington.
I thought it was an absolute weak field in the
Lexington Stakes this season. So that win, although you know
(23:39):
it was a jump up in class form, I don't
think he really beat.
Speaker 3 (23:43):
Top caliber horses.
Speaker 2 (23:45):
The other problem for him here in the Preakness's post
position nine. His running style is he likes to be
in a stocking position. From post nine, He's not going
to be able to get into a good position in
my opinion, before where they hit the first turn.
Speaker 3 (24:01):
The first turn.
Speaker 2 (24:03):
At Pimlico comes up pretty quick and you don't want
to be caught. Why going into that first turn in
this race. So I think he's gonna be back a
little bit further than he wants to be. And as
I alluded to at the beginning, although there are a
couple speed horses in this race, I really don't particularly
see this being a fast paced race for him to
(24:26):
be able to make up ground from sitting a little
bit further back than he's normally accustomed to.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
So for me, I've left him off my top four.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
All right, speaking of top four, we're gonna get into
those top four selections, Sean.
Speaker 3 (24:40):
Alvarez, I'm gonna let you go first.
Speaker 1 (24:42):
I'm gonna go ahead and say fits too. These are
horses that need to be back to win. Play show
be in your exact debox, being your try superfective, tell
us exactly how you would like everyone to bet these selections.
Speaker 4 (24:59):
Yeah, So first selection, like I spoke about, uh the
lucky fortune to us speak about it previously, is that
number six River Tames. I like that they give this
horse a little bit of a break. I think that
he's training well, probably needed that little but a bit
of a refresher. He looked tired in the blue in
the Bluegrass, and uh, I just like I said, you
(25:19):
know who am I to argue with Todd Pletcher and
Irad Ortiz. So that's gonna be my number one or
my top pick. I would like him, like to play
him to win. Uh. I like the price. I'm not
necessarily gonna swallow that. Uh, those short odds and the
number two Journalism, which is my second choice. And obviously
I spoke about this horse as well, so I'm not
gonna hang my hat too high high on this. I
(25:41):
wouldn't necessarily play him to win. I don't like those
short odds. I think there's plenty of value on you know,
the Friday undercard as well as this Saturday undercard. So
if you want to win bet, I would uh look
at other races than you know, uh putting down on Journalism.
And I do like the number one goal oriented. I
think that he's gonna be the the pace for the
(26:04):
speed of this race. He's trained by Bob Baffort. He
hasn't necessarily broken well, but if you watch what he
does after a break, after he breaks, I would say
poorly for a Bob Bafford trained horse. He gets into
strike really quickly and you know, his hands kind of
forced with you know, getting that rail position post draw,
so I think him and Flavian go. And with that
(26:25):
being said, I don't think Jose is going to push
the issue with the number eight, so he may get
kind of left on the lead, and you know, if
he gets soft fractions like we saw, you know, just
two years ago with National Treasure, another Bob Bafford horse,
if they just kind of forget about him on the lead,
I don't think he's coming back to this field. So
this would be another one that if you want a
(26:47):
little bit more of a price, I'd play him on
the win in, but I would definitely use him on
top and underneath in the exacta and then go a
big old bomb that Marco just talked about the number
nine goosture that uh just google it. I believe it
was Jim Goscher. If they're naming it after a baseball player,
I believe he retired in nineteen seventy four, so a
(27:08):
little bit before in my time. But you know, we
talk about how other horses can win the race, and
you know, River Thames is gonna sit off the pace.
Journalism's gonna sit off the pace, and you know, we've
seen it in the past where you know, jockeys get
a little bit too aggressive or you know, they know
their time is now, but their horse isn't necessarily running well,
(27:28):
and we kind of get, you know, a big old
price to kind of sit off of it. They're not
necessarily you know, obviously they're trying for the win. But
I don't think Brendan Walsh has given Louis Size a
leg up saying, hey, you know, at twenty to one,
I think we've got a big shot. I think he's gonna,
you know, tell him to get his horse comfortable. Let's
see what he's made of. And you know, horses like
(27:49):
that can kind of clunk up for you know, second
and third, third place. I definitely would not play him
on the win end. But if we can get something
like twenty or even if he floats up to thirty
to one and second or third, we can get paid.
Even if it's a shorter field than the Kentucky Derby.
Speaker 1 (28:06):
All right, shorter field, he was more money, right, Marco,
better chances to win? Am I doing it right now?
All jokes aside, can you please give me your top
four selections for the one hundred and fiftieth Breakness?
Speaker 3 (28:18):
All right?
Speaker 2 (28:18):
This ray starts and finishes with journalism and eight to
five short odds. But I'm gonna tell you, if this
horse goes off at eight to five, I will be
sending it through the window on him that it was
a fantastic price. That would be an overlay. He should
be shorter odds in this particular field.
Speaker 3 (28:39):
He got beat in.
Speaker 2 (28:39):
The Kentucky Derby, Yes, but he didn't do anything wrong
the situation.
Speaker 3 (28:43):
Of the derby.
Speaker 2 (28:44):
In what happened in the derby, this is another horse
that got hit coming out of the gate. So he
had to alter his game plan, go to plan b
Umberto Rispaloi did what he needed to do. He went
to the rail as quickly as he could to save
ground around the first turn. He didn't panic. He kept
the horse back off of those fast fractions and waited
(29:06):
his time. He waited to find a spot to get
the horse actually from off the rail into the outside
so he could make a move. And when he made
that move, he made it big time coming around the turn. Now,
the only thing I will say that I think Emberto
did wrong is I think he hit the go.
Speaker 3 (29:26):
Button just a couple seconds too soon, because.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
This horse responded to like a rocket and he passed
horses around that turn like they were standing still, and
when they came off the turn into the top of
the lane, he went past the last horse that he
had in front of.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
Him too soon.
Speaker 2 (29:44):
And sometimes with young horses, and trust me, I've been there.
I've seen it with my horses that when they pass
all the horses and there's nobody left in front of them,
they ease up a little bit. They don't have a
target to go after, they think the race is done
they want and what happened is Sovereignty just got the
better trip. Sovereignty got to follow him the whole way
(30:06):
around the turn, followed him off the top of the turn,
and then coupled him in the stretch. They had a
little bit of a stretch battle, and Sovereignty went by him.
I am here to tell you that if you reversed
the two trips, Journalism would have beaten Sovereignty. It was
just one of those races where the two best horses
finished one two. One of them just got a slightly
(30:28):
better trip. So for me, this is all about journalism,
and I'm gonna be keeening him first and second with
all of my exotics. Now, if there's a horse that
can upset him. My number two selection is number eight
Clever Again. This is a horse that Sean previewed for you.
This is a horse only three career starts. He's got
(30:50):
two wins in a second. He raced once as a
two year old to get experience, and then they shut
him down, brought him back, started his first start and
Latebruary this is the then a second start, a wire
to wire fashion, posting an eighty seven buyer. He came
back five weeks later in the hot Springs, went wire
(31:11):
to wire again and jumped up from an eighty seven
buyer to a one to oh one buyer. That's a
huge jump and that's what you see in these young horses.
And I think you got another one coming from him
on Saturday, and that one oh one buyer. He's the
only other horse other than Journalism in this field that's
had a triple digit buyer. And he's got every license
(31:34):
to be even better. And this is the third start
off of the layoff that has been one of my
favorite angles for years. That's the best race in a
horse's form cycle. So for me, I think this horse
has a big shot. He will leave from post eight.
He doesn't have to go to the lead, he's gonna
leave for position. I think he's gonna be sitting second
(31:56):
when they hit that first turn, just off of the
flank of Gold Oriented, and then they'll go from there.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
Third.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
I already talked about him. My third choice in the
race is American Promise. I think he is a price
and then the last horse that I think has a
good shot. Anytime I see an owner and a trainer
that's eligible for the Kentucky Derby to bypass the Kentucky
Derby to point to this race.
Speaker 3 (32:22):
I'm gonna take notice.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
Every owner wants to win the Kentucky Derby, but if
they think they're better shot is here they were eligible
to the Derby, I'm gonna stand up and listen to that.
And he has the perfect style. This horse has tactical speed.
He will be sitting just off the pace setters, so
he'll have that first jump when it's time to make
(32:44):
a move. I think this horse is a big factor
in this race. So for me, it's journalism on top,
and then the next three horses I'll be using underneath
and all kinds of combinations exactas and tri effectus.
Speaker 1 (32:57):
All right, guys, you know what I want you to do.
Jump in the comments section here, tell me your top
four horses for this year's Preakness, And of course, thank
you guys for always hanging out with us here on
Pony Pundits. We'll be back for the Belmont, maybe for
the Breeders' Cup this fall as well. Thank you to Marco,
thank you to Sean, and again thank you to all
(33:18):
of you guys. Please do not forget to hit that
like button, give us that thumbs up, and of course
subscribe to the wager Talk YouTube channels.
Speaker 3 (33:25):
You never miss another show
Welcome into pony Pundits. My name is Kelly Stewart, joined
by Sean Alvarez and Marco DiAngelo of wager talk dot com.
Today we're breaking down the one hundred and fiftieth Preakness. Guys,
this's kind of my favorite race for a magnitude of reasons.
One because I hit a trifecta in about twenty fourteen.
I'm still living off those winnings. That was a fun one,
(00:23):
and so it has kind of a different feel than
the Derby. Marco, why do you like the pregnous? We
know that the Derby's the grande of it all, it
gets all the attention, but the Preniffen's kind of like
my like secondary. This is a really fun race to watch.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
Well, if you've ever gone to a Preakness, which I
haven't because and I probably never will now because I
am way too old to partake in the festivities of
the infield of piblico. But that is an experience from
people that I've talked to firsthand that you must try sometime.
But Kelly, this is uh the second leg of the
(01:01):
Triple Crown, and usually there's a lot of excitement with
this race, just as much excitement as the Kentucky Derby
because we still have the possibility of a triple Crown,
except this year because the Kentucky Derby winner has decided
to bypass the Preakness and point towards the Belmont. So
(01:21):
we have no possibility of a triple crown winner this
year and that takes a little bit of the luster off.
And I can guarantee you you talk to any bookmaker
here in town is we both do on a lot
of shows that we do. None of them are happy
because that really hurts the handle for them. On a
Saturday in May for the Preakness, we know that if
(01:44):
there's no Triple Crown, the Belmont, the final leg of
the Triple Crown was just another Saturday race in the sportsbook.
Nobody really cares. But hopefully this year we get some action.
We've got some popularity with some horses. Obviously Journalism was
the beaten favorite in the Derby. That'll get us he's
(02:05):
got a chance for redemption. And then of course and
Sandman with the social media following that he got that
horse got totally over bet in the Kentucky Derby, simply
because of the power of social media. Is social influencer
that has you know, a million followers. Well they were following,
and they were betting, and he finished up the track.
(02:27):
So a lot of subplots in this year's Preakness.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
I do love fading in almost every single sport, the
favorite on social media right, whether it's a square dog
or a square horse.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
Sean.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
One thing I wanted to ask you before we get
into it is kind of touched on what Marco said.
I saw a lot of chatter on social media about, hey,
there's a great reason why some horses should not be running,
mainly because of a stud fee. But then Marco just
mentioned he will be running in the Belmont. Can you
tell me why these horse owners aren't trying to chase
a triple crown? To is it does not matter anymore?
Speaker 4 (03:02):
Yeah, I mean I'm not sure that, you know, not
necessarily it doesn't matter. But you know, before American Pharaoh,
the last triple crown winner was you know, back in
the seventies with I believe it was citation. So it's
not necessarily the easiest thing to do. And you're looking
at these horses that are just going into their you know,
three year old campaign with starting in you know, February
(03:22):
March April just to try and qualify for the Kentucky Derby.
So it is a very taxing kind of you know,
three to four months leading up into the Kentucky Derby
and then two weeks they turn right around and you know,
ship up to Maryland into Baltimore and try to race
for the Preakness. So it's definitely not the easiest thing
to do. And you know, I tip my cap to
(03:44):
the trainers and the owners that don't necessarily force their
horses into these big races just for you know, the
fame or like you said, you know, stud fees later
when you're a Preakness winner or black type placed. But
they're taking care of their horses, and you know, in
previous years, we've seen a lot of you know, three
year old champions, Triple Crown winners, whether it was American
(04:05):
Pharaoh would justify, but we've seen a lot of you know,
higher in three year old colts immediately go to studying
after their three year old career. So while I completely
agree with what everybody's saying, I wish we had the
Kentucky Derby winner in this race so that at least
we had a little bit of a freakness or triple
Crown possibility. But you know, with that being said, I
(04:29):
hope that a lot of these you know, three year
olds that we see running in these triple Crown races,
you know, we start to see them race into their
four and five year old careers, maybe even get more
stakes placed and more stakes you know, wins in their career,
which would eventually bump up their stud fee. But with
that being said, you know, it's still you know, these
horses cost a lot of money, you know, and owners
(04:50):
and trainers don't necessarily want to gamble if you will
on you know, those horses not getting hurt and affecting
their stud fees later on. So it's really you know,
a double edge sword on you know, giving yourself a
possibility win the Triple Crown, but also taking you know,
the best best care you can of dot ors.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
Very good point as the gambling trio here, I understand
why I think it seems like a good idea to gamble,
But those guys are businessmen, and who would know better
than Marco D'Angelo who actually breeds and racist horses, been
doing so since before I was born. Marco, congratulation, you
nailed the Kentucky Derby for your clients, and I'm hoping
you could do the same for the Preakness m D ten.
(05:33):
That is, your coupon code gets you all of Marco's
selections for the Preakness, MLB, NBA, and NHL playoffs, of course,
thirty nine bucks, and you're gonna save ten dollars with
coupon code m D ten Marco. Let's get into this
nine horse field significantly smaller, of course than the Kentucky Derby.
Let's just go right down the post position line. Start
(05:55):
off here with goal Oriented.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
Yeah, goal orient.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
It is Bob Bafford's replacement for Rodriguez. If Rodriguez wouldn't
have got scratched out of the Kentucky Derby, odds are
he probably would not have raced Goal Oriented in this race.
It would have been Rodriguez's race. But he's in here.
This is a late blooming three year old colt. This
is only gonna be his third career start. What makes
(06:19):
it even tougher than that is his first start wasn't
until April sixth, so you're asking his horse to make
up a lot of ground against these horses that are
much more seasoned than he is to pull off an
upset here, but he does have a big shot and
the reason why the first two starts he had he
put up ninety one buyer speed figures. Those are pretty
(06:43):
impressive numbers out of the shoot. Also his racing style.
He's got the rail. Flavian Pratts got one choice with him,
and that is to bust out of the gate and
go to the lead, get to the first turn with
the lead, and try to control this race. That's going
to be what I see happening him with another horse
(07:04):
on the front end if it gets soft fractions. This
is a horse that could hang around for a long time.
We've seen Bob Baffort do this in the past. The
problem is these are going to be seasoned horses that
are gonna be sitting off his back. I think he
can hang on in this race for the exact or
the try effecta but I just don't see this horse
(07:24):
having enough seasoning to be able to beat some of
the better horses in this race. But don't just totally
pitch the horse. He definitely is on the exotics, exactives
and tries.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
All right, let's go into the Kentucky Derby favorite that
is journalism. I know a lot of us had him
in our exact as and our trifectors and our super effects.
Let's hear about him here as well. Pretty close to
the odds on favorite. Umberto is my dad's new favorite jockey,
even though he did not win the Kentucky Derby. It's
(07:58):
funny to see how some of these and or owners,
there's allegiances here in sports betting, and my dad has
a ton of allegiance towards a couple of those guys,
but a few of them have retired at this point
in time. So he has a new fan favorite here
at Umberto.
Speaker 4 (08:11):
I love that, you know, jump onto one of the
hottest jockeys in the country, and yeah, the number two
journalism coming out of that Kentucky Derby race as the
post time favorite. You know, it's still a short price
to swallow at eight to five, but this is the
best three year old in this three year old cult crop,
so and that's well warranted. With his buyer speed figures.
(08:34):
He ran a really good race, jumping up to a
big one oh eight buyer speed figure in the Sam Felipe,
but he just hasn't really taken that step forward again
since then you look back in the Kentucky Derby, he
had a little bit of a rough trip early on,
but you know, as we've spoken about before in the
Kentucky Derby, it's not about getting the perfect trip, it's
(08:54):
about working out the trip that you get. And he
ran a big race, but you know, Sovereignty ran a
bigger race, and you know there's not a lot as
far as the buyer speed figures go, that can't compete
with journalism. And he's also going to sit that you know,
really tactical middle trip, So there's not a lot to
knock about this post tart or this morning line favorite. However,
(09:16):
he is wheeling back in two weeks. Michael McCarthy not
necessarily the trainer in mind when you know wheeling his
horse's back. He does have a decent clip rate at
twenty two percent, but he only has twenty three starts
wheeling back in those fourteen days, So you know, a
big step up for this for this horse, kind of
doing something that he's never done before. So if you
(09:38):
want to knock a hole in the favorite, that would
probably be what I would lean on. But you know,
he's a well deserving morning line favorite as easily the
best horse in this field.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
All right, let's get into American promise here, Marco, this
was another horse that I think got quite a bit
of love last go around. Talk to me about Nick
Warez and why maybe you think they have a shot
to win this whole thing.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
Well, Kelly, when I look at this horse and you
hit the nail on ahead about this being the wi
Sky horse in the Kentucky Derby, a lot of people
were loving this horse. I personally did not like this
horse going into the Derby, but I actually like this
horse going into the Preakness.
Speaker 3 (10:17):
And I'll explain why.
Speaker 2 (10:19):
Most people are gonna look at the racing form and
look at that performance into Kentucky Derby, see that the
horse finished way back and was a big disappointment. And
to quote our partner in a horse that you and
I own, Kelly, our buddy Johnny Detroit, They're gonna look
and say this horse should be heading to the glue
factory after that Kentucky Derby race. But now I got
(10:43):
to explain why, just like I have to do to
Johnny after every race when we don't win the horse.
If you watch the replay and looked at what happened
to the horse in the race. You can understand why
the horse back.
Speaker 3 (10:55):
Through the field.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
First of all, when the gate sprung, this horse isn'ts
was to go towards the lead. Unfortunately, he got hit
coming out of the gate, which had Nick Morez to
have to go to plan B. Plan B was an
immediate left hand turned to the rail to try to
save ground. Well, when he was down at the rail,
he had he pushed the panic button because he didn't
(11:19):
want to get caught way back at the rail and
tried to rush the horse up into contention. He was
too close to a very hot, contested pace into Kentucky Derby.
The fractions were too fast. That's what set it up
for the horses that came from behind. Not only was
he too close to the pace, but then he made
(11:39):
a move trying to split the two horses in front
of him that were on the lead. When he tried
to split those two horses, he went right in between
the two horses and it closed up and he had
to check the horse. You can't check a horse and
lose his momentum. So he got hit at the start,
went to the rail, was used to hard to get
(12:00):
into contention, then tried to make a move, then was
checked and then back through the field. Well, once he
was back and through the field, people are gonna overreact
to that.
Speaker 3 (12:09):
The only smart.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
Move were as made in that was once he knew
he wasn't gonna get any money into derby, quit riding
on the horse. Save the horse for his next race.
Now people will look at that race line and say,
is there something wrong with him? Well, you got your
answer that there's nothing wrong with him because he's right
back in in two weeks. D Wayne Lucas is a
(12:32):
Hall of Fame trainer. He's not gonna run a horse
back in two weeks. If the horse is not healthy
and fit and ready to go, I think you're gonna
get a big price on American promise. Don't pitch the horse.
I think he can make amends in this race. There's
not a lot of speed in here, and if he
breaks from the gate cleanly, he's gonna be sitting right
behind the two pacesetters on what I think they're gonna
(12:55):
be moderate fractions, not suicide fractions in this race. He
can hang on be a big part of the ticket
at a price all right.
Speaker 1 (13:05):
Fifteen to one is kind of speaking more of my language.
And of course people love, you know, horse names, right,
there's a couple here back to back.
Speaker 3 (13:14):
Part of Honor just kind.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
Of speaks to me, and I'm like, I love that name.
But neither one of you guys put that horse in
your selections for this video, Sean, can you tell me why?
Speaker 4 (13:26):
Yes, So this is the horse coming over from Dubai.
We kind of more talk about that, you know, that
trip over from Dubai or even over from Japan leading
up into the Kentucky Derby. But we've got another one
here that ran second to Admire Daytona, and that was
one of the top Japanese horses that ran in the
Kentucky Derby. However, the Admyer d'Antona ran dead last in
(13:49):
the Kentucky Derby. So his form isn't necessarily being backed
up with that second place finish in the UAE Derby
back in April. So I don't necessarily like it form
coming into this. His trainer isn't necessarily known for bringing
his horses over into North America, and now the horse
is kind of stepping up into not necessarily the toughest company.
(14:10):
It's not you know, a Kentucky Derby type field. But
you know, we still have the likes of Journalism River Thames,
you know, and the likes of others that are just
a little bit better than those type of crops. So
I don't necessarily like his form. I hate the trip
of coming over. If anything, I like the trip coming
over and getting a race, you know, under his belt
before jumping up into a race like the Preakness. So
(14:32):
I don't like what he did in Dubai. I don't
like the shipping angle, and you know, I think the
trainer maybe not necessarily over his head, but you know
he's stepping up into class as well.
Speaker 1 (14:45):
One of the longest odds horse here twenty to one.
But my favorite name on the list Marco pay Billy
another horse neither one of you have on your list
or you know exact as or tries Marcot. What's going
on with the horse in position number five?
Speaker 2 (15:02):
Well, Kelly, if you like this name, paid Billy, is
that one of your bookies or you have to pay
Billy all the time or what you shouldn't like that name?
You should want to, you know, be paid by Billy.
But this one, pure and simple, This is a local horse.
Every year, you'll see one horse that'll get into the
Preakness with local connections and high aspirations and just literally
(15:24):
no shot. And that's what paid Billy is. The horse
has had eight career starts. He has improved every single
race with his buyer speed figure over the last six
that's a good sign. The problem is his highest speed
figure is eighty five. He's gonna need about fifteen more
points to be in contention to win the Preakness. And
(15:47):
what it's going to take to win this race, and
the fact that he has eight career starts.
Speaker 3 (15:51):
We talked about that in the Derby.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
I don't like horses that, you know, enter the Derby
when they've got eight, nine or ten starts already because
they basically are what they are. They're not going to
make that big jump that you'll see with horses that
only have two or three starts in of nowhere near
peaked yet. This horse is what he is. I don't
see him. He's pure and simple, just not fast enough.
(16:15):
It's a nice story, local owners, local connections, the horses
racing well, but he's been doing it against very mediocre competition.
Pass for me, all right, Sean.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
The horse currently as the odds on favorite you and
Marco both have on your list River Thames. Is this
the horse that's gonna win the whole thing or are
they just getting a little too much love in the
marketplace and you should just be putting them in your
exact as and tries.
Speaker 4 (16:40):
Yeah, this is another horse that I definitely like, like
you alluded to, and I'm glad Marco does too, because
I didn't like Sovereignty, so he's one up on me
in the Triple Crown races so far. But this is
another horse that has that tactical speed very similar to journalism.
He's not necessarily a need the lead type of horse.
He breaks well from the gate and he gets into
(17:01):
stride well. So I really like the fact that he
doesn't need a quick pace to run into and if
they slow down then he's you know, in touch with
those type of leaders to be able to make that
first run and try to run down you know, whoever's
on the lead, and the likes of journalism. So I
do really like the tactical speed of this horse. You
have a really good human connection in Todd Pletcher and
(17:22):
Irad Ortiz, and we spoke about sovereignty the Kentucky Derby
winner kipping the Preakness. This is a horse that had
enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby, and the
ownership and trainer figure thought to themselves that this is
what they said. They said, the Kentucky Derby isn't for
this horse. We're gonna skip it. The Preakness is a
(17:42):
little bit of a better spot for him. But if
he watch his Bluegrass race, he just didn't look like
he was getting into stride very well. He technically looked exhausted,
his ears were pinned back, but he never gave up
and he ran a really good third place finish behind
Burnham Square in that race and East Avenue, you know,
horses that we liked kind of going into that Kentucky Derby.
(18:04):
So I do like that that third place effort last
time out, and he's got three you know, uh listed
works on his worktab, you know, working well leading up
into this. I like the fact that it wasn't necessarily
a scratch in the Kentucky Derby. They wanted to give
this horse a little bit of time off. Let's target
the Preakness. Maybe we go to the Belmont after that,
but we think our best shot is in the Preakness.
(18:26):
And you know who am I to argue with the
likes of Todd Pletcher.
Speaker 1 (18:30):
All right, if you are looking for Sean's full card selections,
that's right, that's Black Eyed Susan Day there on Friday
and of course Saturday for the Preakness. Sean has all
of his wagers up on a wager talk dot com
right now, wt dot buzz backslash saw. No coupon code
is going to be needed here, guys, just thirty bucks
(18:51):
for his Friday and Saturday selections.
Speaker 3 (18:54):
Marco Let's talk.
Speaker 1 (18:55):
About Sandman, we kind of laughed, kind of alluded to
at the beginning of the show. Show a lot of
people love this horse and the Derby and it became
a square horse if you will. Right now, currently sitting
out four to one in the seventh post position, and
you left him off your list once again.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
I did, And Kelly, this is a horse that you
should absolutely love because Sandman tweets well, he does tiktoks well,
and it's all thanks to Griffin Johnson, part owner in here,
a social influencer. And you know, as far as it
going for the sport of horse racing, I love it,
you know, it's bringing new eyeballs to the track, and
(19:35):
it's bringing younger eyeballs. But as far as value, Sandman
was over bet in the derby, he'll be over Bet here.
Speaker 3 (19:45):
Never fired in the Derby.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
The only excuse that he can make is well, that
was his first time on a sloppy track and.
Speaker 3 (19:52):
He didn't like it. Well, there were.
Speaker 2 (19:54):
Other horses in that race that it was the first
time over a sloppy track too, and they did pretty well.
I can't make an excuse for him. This is one
of those horses that also has a lot of starts,
so he is basically what he is at this point
in his career. He got the perfect setup in the
derby because they went fast fractions. That's what you want
(20:17):
to see for the closers, and it worked out well
for Journalism and Sovereignty. And when Sovereignty started his move,
guess who was right next to him, Sandman, and he
left Sandman.
Speaker 3 (20:29):
In the dust.
Speaker 2 (20:30):
So this is a horse that you know, Yeah, can
he run on the very bottom of the ticket if
you're using tri effectives in the third spot superfectives in
the fourth spot. Yeah, But I don't see him as
a contender to win this particular race, so he's not
on my top four, as you'll find out in a
few minutes.
Speaker 1 (20:50):
All right, clever again in the eighth spot here with
my favorite jockey Jose Ortez Sean Alvas. Breakdown this horse
and if you think have a shot to win it all?
Currently five to one.
Speaker 4 (21:04):
Yeah, So this is the horse that you know, Marco
kind of alluded to when speaking about the number one
Clever again or I'm sorry, go oriented the number eight
clever again at five to one. This is another one
of those speed horses that could either clear the field
or you know, give a little bit of fits to
that Bob Baffert trained horse on the rail. He's very
quick out of the gate and like I said, you know,
(21:25):
said about other horses, he gets into stride well and
he's got a very high cruising speed. My only real
knock about the horse is he's coming over from the
eighth spot. If the Baffert horse breaks well from the gate,
he's also quick. Journalism's quick out of the gate. The
number six River Thames is quick out of the gate,
so you know it's really going to be you know,
let the horse break. Let's see what he does and
(21:48):
what other horses do can or does he have enough
speed to make it over and clear that field or
does he have to sit off? Because if the number
one breaks quick and you know sets, you know set's
you know point for that lead, and the number eight
and Jose tried to do the same thing, I think
they're gonna be cooking quick early and I think that
that's gonna really hinder both of their chances. So definitely
(22:11):
a player, And like I said, especially if the number
one doesn't break well. The number one's kind of been
not necessarily known to not break well. He only has
two starts in his career, but has been kind of
left at the gate before and then got into that
cruising speed. So it's really gonna really depend on how
they break out of the gate because I don't necessarily
(22:31):
like Clever again's chances. If he has to set off
the pace, they haven't necessarily tried to do it, but
he hasn't shown to do it. And now he's gonna
jump up from a listed stakes race into the Preakness.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
All right, Marco, the name of the horse that is
gonna screw me up?
Speaker 3 (22:47):
Gozger?
Speaker 1 (22:48):
What is the Gosger? And who came up with his name.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
I think it's actually named after a baseball player. Sean
would know more, being the uh baseball guy with memorabilia.
But this is a lightly raced three year old only
three career starts. The problem is in those three career starts,
he does have two wins in a second But his
two wins, the first one was came in a second start,
(23:15):
a maiden race. Okay, so again those can be good,
those could be soft fields. But then his second win
did come in a state race. However, it was the Lexington,
and I don't know how Sean feels about this year's Lexington.
I thought it was an absolute weak field in the
Lexington Stakes this season. So that win, although you know
(23:39):
it was a jump up in class form, I don't
think he really beat.
Speaker 3 (23:43):
Top caliber horses.
Speaker 2 (23:45):
The other problem for him here in the Preakness's post
position nine. His running style is he likes to be
in a stocking position. From post nine, He's not going
to be able to get into a good position in
my opinion, before where they hit the first turn.
Speaker 3 (24:01):
The first turn.
Speaker 2 (24:03):
At Pimlico comes up pretty quick and you don't want
to be caught. Why going into that first turn in
this race. So I think he's gonna be back a
little bit further than he wants to be. And as
I alluded to at the beginning, although there are a
couple speed horses in this race, I really don't particularly
see this being a fast paced race for him to
(24:26):
be able to make up ground from sitting a little
bit further back than he's normally accustomed to.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
So for me, I've left him off my top four.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
All right, speaking of top four, we're gonna get into
those top four selections, Sean.
Speaker 3 (24:40):
Alvarez, I'm gonna let you go first.
Speaker 1 (24:42):
I'm gonna go ahead and say fits too. These are
horses that need to be back to win. Play show
be in your exact debox, being your try superfective, tell
us exactly how you would like everyone to bet these selections.
Speaker 4 (24:59):
Yeah, So first selection, like I spoke about, uh the
lucky fortune to us speak about it previously, is that
number six River Tames. I like that they give this
horse a little bit of a break. I think that
he's training well, probably needed that little but a bit
of a refresher. He looked tired in the blue in
the Bluegrass, and uh, I just like I said, you
(25:19):
know who am I to argue with Todd Pletcher and
Irad Ortiz. So that's gonna be my number one or
my top pick. I would like him, like to play
him to win. Uh. I like the price. I'm not
necessarily gonna swallow that. Uh, those short odds and the
number two Journalism, which is my second choice. And obviously
I spoke about this horse as well, so I'm not
gonna hang my hat too high high on this. I
(25:41):
wouldn't necessarily play him to win. I don't like those
short odds. I think there's plenty of value on you know,
the Friday undercard as well as this Saturday undercard. So
if you want to win bet, I would uh look
at other races than you know, uh putting down on Journalism.
And I do like the number one goal oriented. I
think that he's gonna be the the pace for the
(26:04):
speed of this race. He's trained by Bob Baffort. He
hasn't necessarily broken well, but if you watch what he
does after a break, after he breaks, I would say
poorly for a Bob Bafford trained horse. He gets into
strike really quickly and you know, his hands kind of
forced with you know, getting that rail position post draw,
so I think him and Flavian go. And with that
(26:25):
being said, I don't think Jose is going to push
the issue with the number eight, so he may get
kind of left on the lead, and you know, if
he gets soft fractions like we saw, you know, just
two years ago with National Treasure, another Bob Bafford horse,
if they just kind of forget about him on the lead,
I don't think he's coming back to this field. So
this would be another one that if you want a
(26:47):
little bit more of a price, I'd play him on
the win in, but I would definitely use him on
top and underneath in the exacta and then go a
big old bomb that Marco just talked about the number
nine goosture that uh just google it. I believe it
was Jim Goscher. If they're naming it after a baseball player,
I believe he retired in nineteen seventy four, so a
(27:08):
little bit before in my time. But you know, we
talk about how other horses can win the race, and
you know, River Thames is gonna sit off the pace.
Journalism's gonna sit off the pace, and you know, we've
seen it in the past where you know, jockeys get
a little bit too aggressive or you know, they know
their time is now, but their horse isn't necessarily running well,
(27:28):
and we kind of get, you know, a big old
price to kind of sit off of it. They're not
necessarily you know, obviously they're trying for the win. But
I don't think Brendan Walsh has given Louis Size a
leg up saying, hey, you know, at twenty to one,
I think we've got a big shot. I think he's gonna,
you know, tell him to get his horse comfortable. Let's
see what he's made of. And you know, horses like
(27:49):
that can kind of clunk up for you know, second
and third, third place. I definitely would not play him
on the win end. But if we can get something
like twenty or even if he floats up to thirty
to one and second or third, we can get paid.
Even if it's a shorter field than the Kentucky Derby.
Speaker 1 (28:06):
All right, shorter field, he was more money, right, Marco,
better chances to win? Am I doing it right now?
All jokes aside, can you please give me your top
four selections for the one hundred and fiftieth Breakness?
Speaker 3 (28:18):
All right?
Speaker 2 (28:18):
This ray starts and finishes with journalism and eight to
five short odds. But I'm gonna tell you, if this
horse goes off at eight to five, I will be
sending it through the window on him that it was
a fantastic price. That would be an overlay. He should
be shorter odds in this particular field.
Speaker 3 (28:39):
He got beat in.
Speaker 2 (28:39):
The Kentucky Derby, Yes, but he didn't do anything wrong
the situation.
Speaker 3 (28:43):
Of the derby.
Speaker 2 (28:44):
In what happened in the derby, this is another horse
that got hit coming out of the gate. So he
had to alter his game plan, go to plan b
Umberto Rispaloi did what he needed to do. He went
to the rail as quickly as he could to save
ground around the first turn. He didn't panic. He kept
the horse back off of those fast fractions and waited
(29:06):
his time. He waited to find a spot to get
the horse actually from off the rail into the outside
so he could make a move. And when he made
that move, he made it big time coming around the turn. Now,
the only thing I will say that I think Emberto
did wrong is I think he hit the go.
Speaker 3 (29:26):
Button just a couple seconds too soon, because.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
This horse responded to like a rocket and he passed
horses around that turn like they were standing still, and
when they came off the turn into the top of
the lane, he went past the last horse that he
had in front of.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
Him too soon.
Speaker 2 (29:44):
And sometimes with young horses, and trust me, I've been there.
I've seen it with my horses that when they pass
all the horses and there's nobody left in front of them,
they ease up a little bit. They don't have a
target to go after, they think the race is done
they want and what happened is Sovereignty just got the
better trip. Sovereignty got to follow him the whole way
(30:06):
around the turn, followed him off the top of the turn,
and then coupled him in the stretch. They had a
little bit of a stretch battle, and Sovereignty went by him.
I am here to tell you that if you reversed
the two trips, Journalism would have beaten Sovereignty. It was
just one of those races where the two best horses
finished one two. One of them just got a slightly
(30:28):
better trip. So for me, this is all about journalism,
and I'm gonna be keeening him first and second with
all of my exotics. Now, if there's a horse that
can upset him. My number two selection is number eight
Clever Again. This is a horse that Sean previewed for you.
This is a horse only three career starts. He's got
(30:50):
two wins in a second. He raced once as a
two year old to get experience, and then they shut
him down, brought him back, started his first start and
Latebruary this is the then a second start, a wire
to wire fashion, posting an eighty seven buyer. He came
back five weeks later in the hot Springs, went wire
(31:11):
to wire again and jumped up from an eighty seven
buyer to a one to oh one buyer. That's a
huge jump and that's what you see in these young horses.
And I think you got another one coming from him
on Saturday, and that one oh one buyer. He's the
only other horse other than Journalism in this field that's
had a triple digit buyer. And he's got every license
(31:34):
to be even better. And this is the third start
off of the layoff that has been one of my
favorite angles for years. That's the best race in a
horse's form cycle. So for me, I think this horse
has a big shot. He will leave from post eight.
He doesn't have to go to the lead, he's gonna
leave for position. I think he's gonna be sitting second
(31:56):
when they hit that first turn, just off of the
flank of Gold Oriented, and then they'll go from there.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
Third.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
I already talked about him. My third choice in the
race is American Promise. I think he is a price
and then the last horse that I think has a
good shot. Anytime I see an owner and a trainer
that's eligible for the Kentucky Derby to bypass the Kentucky
Derby to point to this race.
Speaker 3 (32:22):
I'm gonna take notice.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
Every owner wants to win the Kentucky Derby, but if
they think they're better shot is here they were eligible
to the Derby, I'm gonna stand up and listen to that.
And he has the perfect style. This horse has tactical speed.
He will be sitting just off the pace setters, so
he'll have that first jump when it's time to make
(32:44):
a move. I think this horse is a big factor
in this race. So for me, it's journalism on top,
and then the next three horses I'll be using underneath
and all kinds of combinations exactas and tri effectus.
Speaker 1 (32:57):
All right, guys, you know what I want you to do.
Jump in the comments section here, tell me your top
four horses for this year's Preakness, And of course, thank
you guys for always hanging out with us here on
Pony Pundits. We'll be back for the Belmont, maybe for
the Breeders' Cup this fall as well. Thank you to Marco,
thank you to Sean, and again thank you to all
(33:18):
of you guys. Please do not forget to hit that
like button, give us that thumbs up, and of course
subscribe to the wager Talk YouTube channels.
Speaker 3 (33:25):
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