October 10, 2025 • 44 mins
Looking for the best NFL, CFB & WNBA picks, predictions, and betting tips for Friday, October 10, 2025? We have you covered on the ONLY show talking WNBA, CFB & NFL Action! Tune in to Profit Picks with expert handicappers Hakeem "Skee" Profit and Rob Veno as they preview today’s WNBA Finals matchup with sharp insights and actionable advice.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
What's up? Everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.
If you are new, we always start to show by
being transparent. Yesterday I only ended up getting to the
window with one play, and I'm not even sure that
I talked about it yesterday, but over forty and a
half after thinking about the game more and more and more,
you know, I talked about it with some of my
(00:23):
friends and my thoughts were, you know, we talked. We said,
how the Giant's gonna score right? And the more I
thought about it, you're missing Carter on the D line
in the secondary. And I did say this. My friends
can vouch for me. I said, Ringo is the weakness
he's been getting picked on. He can get picked on
(00:45):
in this game. And from the first drive he threw
it up one on one with Ringo stakes and Jackson
Dirt plays solid. So ended up getting there with over
forty and a half and it wasn't when. So I'm
happy about that. You know, hopefully you had a good
day as well. How you doing today?
Speaker 2 (01:06):
I'm good, Ski, I'll you know, yesterday was a slight,
slight loss because the big play did win. And I think, boy,
I can't remember, but I think it's the one we
used as the best bet here on the show, the
Georgia Southern Southern miss game over. If it wasn't the
one we used here on the show, I can't even remember,
(01:29):
but that was the big play for clients last night.
The losses came with the Eagles team total over twenty
four and a half and I had seventeen with eight
minutes and forty seconds left in the second quarter and
they never scored again. So unhappy with the Eagles, who
looked like it was going to be a coast job.
If you're gambling guys, never feel that way. Never feel
(01:50):
like it's a coast job, because it's never that easy.
And then the other side that I had was the
too late East Carolina game over, and I was praying
for overtime at the end of that game, ECU was
on a drive, but it didn't happen. So one and two.
But like I say, minimal loss because the big play
was Georgia Southern Southern miss over the total they got
(02:10):
there rather easily.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
I'm not gonna lie, you know. I was happy to
see uh you know, I I've come to dislike a
lot of these Eagle fans. The Jalen Hurts faithful. I
just I don't get it. They love him like he's
the best quarterback on the planet. And I was, for
one happy to see uh, yesterday's performance. I'll just say that.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Got me. Yeah. When Mitchell though, well, you know what,
I live right here, for those who don't know, I
live outside of Philadelphia, maybe thirty five minutes from the stadium.
And it was a bad week overall for Philadelphia fans.
I mean, the Dodgers go into Philly Saturday Sunday, win
two games, win the series. Last night Broncos go into Philly,
(02:58):
beat the Eagles. Eagles go to the Giants get waxed,
and they haven't had a good thing happened to them
in about five days. Ski. And the joke here is
always just look out on the Ben Franklin Bridge, because
these Eagles and Philly fans, these Philly fans will be
jumping off the Ben Franklin Bridge when things don't code
their way. So it hasn't been good here at all
for Philadelphia.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
We'll see if they can clean it up in the
near future. All right, let's get this some actionable info
for today, and we have a lot to talk about,
So We'll start how we always do with ladies first,
So let's get back here to the screen that is
the Aces in the Mercury. Game four of the WNBA
Finals opened a minus one for the Aces and they
(03:42):
are pretty much too everywhere. Total open one sixty four
and a half and it's down in one sixty or
is down as low as one sixty three. Injury report
nobody on there for the Aces. Statu Sabi will not
be available for the Mercury with the concussion, and man,
you know, I mean Mercury have been right there at
(04:06):
the end of two of these games at least they've
had a chance. But now down oh three, it's like, uh,
you know, it's pretty much just wrap it up, no satu.
You see the line difference from Game three in Game four,
I mean Mercury minus four and a half I think
was the closer. Now they're a two point dog. Big move.
(04:28):
I know Satu is important, but is it going to
be you know, it's easy saw two's out. They have
no chance to take the Aces. They win, they win
big or is this line maybe shorter for a reason
then they can still be competitive as far as the Mercury.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
Yeah, full game is hard for me here, Ski, because
my feeling is that the Mercury will play effort wise
according to score. If it's if it starts out and
it's closer, they're in the lead and the crowd is
behind them, then I think they'll stay in this thing.
But if Las Vegas gets out to a big start
(05:07):
like they did in the last game, I don't know
that Phoenix has another comeback in them. I'd really look
more towards endgame with this contest. You mentioned saw that's
twenty two points a game in this series that's now missing.
And I think I had mentioned the other day that
we needed to see the role players play. Dwana Bonner
played fantastic in the last game and they still couldn't win.
(05:31):
So it's a young team. We know Alyssa Thomas is
gonna play as hard as she always plays. I just
worry about everything else surrounding her. If Las Vegas gets
out of the gates quickly again. And I think at
this point in time, Becky Hammond and the Aces have
that mentality of let's just finish this thing off. They
(05:53):
look pretty solid so far through three. I know Phoenix
has been close in a couple you know, the Game
one is the one that really hurt Phoenix in my
estimation here, last last game was a valiant comeback effort.
But I don't know the way Las Vegas is playing
offensively right now. It's interesting, Ski, I think more than
(06:13):
anything that sat two and twenty two points per game
in this series are missing and the total only goes
down from one sixty four and a half to win
sixty three and a half. It almost makes you feel
like the osmakers are telling you Las Vegas is gonna
do what they've been doing the whole time, and that's
score a lot of points. I would have thought that
(06:34):
game would have gone down to about one sixty one
and a half by now, but it hasn't.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
I agree with you on that. It was definitely you know,
it catches my attention at the total didn't move start two.
It is worth a lot of points. Yeah, that's tough
as far as the total. I mean, I would think
under like you said, but thought wise, let's just talk
(07:00):
about it like this for a second. I mean, human
nature could kick in for the Aces up three zero
already kind of thinking they won. Maybe the Mercury have
some pride come out here and you know they don't
want to get swept on their home court. That could
be a thing. What else can the Mercury do basketball wise?
(07:21):
I mean, they still have talent Khalid Copper. I would
look towards her points because if they're going to be
in a game, they're going to need a big offensive
performance from her. I think Natasha Mack can bring a
lot of what they were lacking. I mean, I just
think back to when I was watching that game, that
last game three for one to start the game. Aces
(07:44):
weren't missing a lot, right, but a few times they
were missing and it wasn't a foul. They were getting
a rebound and getting a second chance to shoot again.
So Natasha Mac should be able to help clean up
the boards and finish possessions as well as maybe he'll
protect the rim. So I think that can be something
(08:06):
that's positive for Phoenix. And uh, the line, I don't know.
The line just makes me think that Phoenix can can
still take this game. I don't feel very strongly about it.
I haven't played it yet, but I have a small
lane to Phoenix at home. Plus the two points. Yeah,
(08:26):
they didn't put Natasha max rebounds up or else, I'd
be very interested in that do want to. Bonner's probably
another person who could you know who will have to rebound,
But if Max's gonna be playing a lot of minutes,
I don't know that I want to bet Bonner. So
that's why I haven't really gotten there. I was waiting,
wait and wait, and thinking Mac would get put up,
but it still hasn't been put up yet. So lean
(08:48):
Mercury here plus the two lean under anything else you
want to touch on this one before you move on.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
Yeah, it's just hard for me. Ski. Like you said,
I haven't this game, and again I'll just reiterate simply
because I think it's more of an in game type
of play. You want to look and see where Phoenix
is at, where their heads are at, and maybe even
to your point, where Las Vegas heads are at. You know,
a human nature would be, let's just go home and
clinch this thing. We'll do it in front of our
(09:17):
own fans. That does happen periodically. I look at their
team total of eighty two, the Las Vegas aces, and
just every single thing we've seen in this series wants
me to just say bet over eighty two for the
aces and let the chips fall where they may with
everything else but haven't played, might not play a lot
(09:38):
of other stuff we can do tonight other than that.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
So for Jay, really quick, he says, how do you
go from four and a half to two in a
close out game with the star player missing from an
opposing team? It was Phoenix minus four and a half.
Now it's Phoenix plus two. But it is a six
and a half point moves. I don't know if I
maybe said it wrong or something, but it was a
six and a half point move. People in the chat,
this is what I'm thinking here, you know, so look
(10:03):
last game, everybody's saying, you know, myself included, I think,
you know, Phoenix down oh two, gonna get you know,
the kitchen sink game. You know what I'm saying. Everybody
thought that way. Everybody bet that way. You saw how
it was officiated. It looked like we were in Las
Vegas already. So now yeah, now nobody wants anything to
(10:32):
do with Phoenix. Now everybody's better than if Aces or nothing.
It's over already and they're missing side too. There's no
way the Mercury can win. Look at Greg Gibson here,
says Aces, No, they can beat them to the league
probably to lose to make some money by playing another game.
I mean, we always say that in the NBA, you know,
I think true. If somebody's getting a whistle tonight, it
(10:54):
will finally be the Mercury. So combination of that Natasha
mac Out on the board finishing possessions and them just
playing with some pride and the Aces potentially overlooking them,
I think Mercury plus would be uh decide, I'd have
to land on there if you know, it won't be
(11:16):
a big bet, But.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Can we get Sammy Wickham to finally make a couple
of threes and at least let us know she's involved
in the series. It's I mean that that's such a
key spot for Phoenix to make threes and it just
hasn't been the last couple of games and she's been
non existent. So role player at home, I don't know.
If she starts hitting from the from the outset could
(11:41):
be a different deal. But there's too many ifs for
to get.
Speaker 1 (11:47):
And then one more last if if the refs allowed
them to actually play defense, that's how Phoenix has a chance.
They're calling foul foul, foul. Phoenix has no shot. They
got here by playing defense. Aces out of offense team.
So if you're just calling foul foul, foul, you're giving
advantage to the ass. If they allowed him to play
physical and play defense, Mercury can have a chance.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
Tell them that Tasha Mac just go rough Asia up.
That's what we need. You got five pounds just man?
Speaker 1 (12:18):
All right? Yeah, that that I'm not gonna lie. That
might be a one percenter for me, you know, all right?
Speaker 2 (12:25):
That used to be a club, the one.
Speaker 1 (12:31):
Let's get this out the way really quick, because it
is a big game. Although I don't have a lot
to say about it, but Detroit and Seattle school Ball
and Kirby. Just in short, I trust School, like you
know he's gonna I mean, you know how great of
(12:51):
a picture is regardless what the outcome is today, that's
somebody I would you know, I personally am not running
to the window to go better and over if I
see him on the mount. Kirby I respect as well.
And I think that Seattle has a solid bullpen. I
do worry that they may have taxed the bullpen a
little bit in these past couple of games. So I
(13:13):
think like that probably first five under, even though I
expect School to go long he has to, and when
I think like that, it should include the full game.
I don't know. I'm back and forth here. I can
only try to bet some way of an under anything
from you here on this one, Robo.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
Yeah, I wouldn't argue that the first five inning under
is two and a half. Man's that's as low as
I've ever seen two and a half. But it's probably justified, Ski,
because honestly, you could see something like one to one
or one nothing at the end of five with these
two guys on the hill George Kirby against the Tigers offense,
(13:55):
and I think the only person that got to Scooble
in Game one were the two home runs that were
hit by Polanco. I think he hit two solos off
of him. Otherwise nobody touched him. I'm with you, though,
if it's if I'm gonna play, I'm gonna play Tarik Schoogle,
and if I'm aj Hinch, I'm just letting him go.
(14:17):
H He's definitely capable of getting eight innings and it's
a tough ballpark to score runs, and a total full
game total is six Ski, I guess I would probably
lean that way, maybe under six, or I would just
play Detroit at plus whether or not plus price. I've
played Detroit in some way, shape or form, but I
(14:37):
think I would rather play under simply because the Tigers
offense doesn't score hardly ever, so it should be a
good pitchers matchup.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Yeah, some way, shape or form. I'm trying to get
there with the under in that one. Talk a little
bit of college football and he'll be rob, you know,
talking a little bit more of this than me. But
we'll look at South Florida and Norte Texas. This one
opened up minus one and a half for North Texas.
Not a big move, I see, you know who is
(15:07):
a consensus and total went up a point from sixty
six to sixty seven. So I'll just pass it on
over to you, Ravino. Are you looking at this one
from her side or a total perspective?
Speaker 2 (15:18):
Well, you could look at it from bold ski. I
think the safer way might be to look at it
from a totals perspective, but South Florida could be an
option as well. The only trouble you have with the
USF is you haven't seen them on the road yet,
but you've seen them play tough teams. I mean, we
saw the first two games of the year, they beat
(15:38):
Boise State. They won their second game, they went to
play Miami Florida and got beat No shame there. Miami
Florida is probably a top five team in the country
right now. North Texas has not played that type of schedule,
but man, they score points and at home. You know,
they actually at North Texas today, they canceled all the
afternoon classes so that everybody could show up at this
(16:00):
stadium for tonight's game. Big deal for North Texas to
be on Friday night television. Both quarterbacks really good here,
but there's a difference in age. Obviously. The quarterback for unt,
Drew Mestimaker, is a young quarterback of freshman who's played really,
really well. And on the other side, you've got a
(16:22):
guy that you know, people project maybe to be in
the NFL in Byron Brown. So I think you're going
to get a lot of offense here. Ski The question
just becomes you have to start looking at key numbers.
Sixty seven in the world of totals is pretty dead.
It's sixty six and sixty eight are more key numbers.
So you have to get to sixty eight here. They
(16:44):
probably can. I think USF could be a look simply
because they played the far better schedule, and if you
want to use strength of opposition as a guideline, you'd
probably look that way. But to me, it'll be an
up and down game here. Hopefully when you get in
the scoring areas, you get scores and you don't get turnovers,
(17:05):
which always hurt. But these teams can score from distance
as well, so for me it would be a play
on the over. And I do think there's at least
this morning, there were a couple of places where you
could shop at sixty six and a half. I don't
know that that's necessary, but if you because sixty seven
is a dead number, but if you can find it,
you obviously want to take it.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
All right, good stuff. Mark likes North Texas and that one.
Next we have Fresno and Fresno State and Colorado State.
Total did open forty five and a half in this
one and is up as high as forty seven and
a half. Not much movement on the side. I don't
know why, you know, but I just have a filling
(17:47):
you're in line with that total once again going to
the over.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
And you know, it's more of a proactive kind of
place Ski, the head coach for Colorado State j Norvel
he used to coach at Neval Arena. He turned over
the play calling duties to his offensive coordinator, Matt Mummy.
For those who don't know, Matt Mummy's the son of
Hal Mummy, who was kind of the inventor of the
(18:11):
air raid. He and Mike Leach kind of perfected the
air raid back at Kentucky. But Matt Mummy's cut from
that cloth and he got his first chance to call
plays last week. It was minimal, but Colorado State did
have their season high yards per play average, They had
their season high points scored, and it was done against
(18:32):
San Diego State, which is a really good defense on
the road. Colorado State played so proactively. I'm thinking to myself, well,
if they could do that against San Diego State, then
coming back home against Fresno State, which is playing well
for another first year head coach, Matt Enz from the
FCS ranks, then they could probably get to mid twenties
(18:54):
here against this team. Colorado State also plays zero defense.
They gave up forty five to See Diego State last
week in San Diego hadn't scored forty five in the
last couple of years, so you start putting those pieces together.
It's a little bit of guesswork that Colorado State is
on more of an offensive track with this guy calling
(19:17):
the plays. But I think it's worthy of a slight
play here. And you know what, the money has gone
that way, Ski, I think it's gone up either one
and a half or two points. The total has since
the openers, so I'd be on that. I wouldn't let
it go much higher because you certainly can't count on
Colorado State. It's just me trying to be proactive.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
All right, Let's get to that last one. We have
one more where the total went up. Tonight it opened
fifty nine and a half, and it's up. I'm seeing
sixty one and a half's out there. I mean you
should a line shop. I see it sixty and a half,
sixty one, sixty one and a half, So depending on
what you like, as always line shop. And for the side,
(19:57):
it opened ten and a half. For Washington, I'm seeing
it as high as twelve out there right now. That
might be a Stelle twelve. Usually south Point, oh no,
south Point numbers are usually different than everywhere else for
whatever reason. And I never actually go to South Point
to verify. It's just too out the way from where
I live. But you know, I don't know. It's another
(20:22):
one where they're steaming it up. I know, I got
to pull your arm to bet and over? Is it
Friday night? Over tonight?
Speaker 2 (20:30):
I said it yesterday? Is there really a line for unders?
They have that? Do they have that line at the
sports book? And by the way, South Points a little
far for you, but I've seen you out there. I'm
gonna say this. I'm gonna ask you this, okay, because
I know you'll have answers for this. Tell me what
(20:52):
you think. What immediately when you hear the teams Iowa
and Minnesota defense and slow scoring, right, not a lot
of offense, all defense, right, Rutgers has played both of
those teams.
Speaker 1 (21:06):
I remember Scorers played Iowa. That was a high scoring game.
Speaker 2 (21:09):
Sixty six, Right, they scored twenty eight. And Iowa doesn't
score on anybody. They got thirty eight Rutgers. It's a
different tale with this team. All of a sudden, They're
not the defensive team they used to be, you know,
grinded out. They're a high scoring team that gives up
a lot of points. Minnesota ski just to add a
little context to it. They went and played the very
next week in Minnesota. It was thirty one to twenty eight,
(21:31):
a fifty nine point game against Minnesota where they actually
forced Minnesota to have to throw the ball to you know,
keep up. They've also played two Mid American teams. They
played Ohio U Rutgers did. We saw the very beginning
of the year. The game was very high scoring against OHIOU,
and then they played Miami of Ohio and that game
got into the sixties. So Rutgers has definitely taken on
(21:54):
a new form all offense. The quarterback here very very good,
and the skill position is really good. Fly all the
way out to Washington, and certainly if you can score
on Iowa and Minnesota, you can score on Washington. And
the problem for Rutgers is gonna be Washington's offense is
(22:16):
fifty times better than anything Iowa and Minnesota puts on
the field. So I fear for how much Rutgers could
give up here. This totally sixty I don't know, thirty
four twenty seven wins this game. Washington probably gets a
little more thirty eight twenty seven wins this game. But
I would think that this has to be more of
(22:37):
a mid sixties game than a low sixties game, so
to me, you know, we talk about logic school all
the time here on this show. Logic School tells me
this one should get over and the money has gone
that way. Just today this morning, I've seen the Rays
from fifty nine and a half to sixty one.
Speaker 1 (22:55):
All right, pinostays he's gonna sit back, pop up in
the cold, and expect some fireworks tonight in college football.
Get out of that underline, all right, let's uh, Now
I want to get involved. We'll talk a little bit
of professional football NFL Week six, and we do like
to bounce around, so I just uh, I'm just gonna
(23:18):
put that up there for the NFL portion of the show.
There's a lot of games that catch my attention this week, Robie, know,
I know, I like to just go through the list.
I guess we'll do it that way again. Number one.
I'll say this because I know it's your team and
(23:38):
we've talked about this already, but Denver versus the Less Stands,
they beat up on them, right, So going in there
to face the Jets, you've seen Denver go from five
and a half up to seven total go from forty
one and a half to forty three and a half.
It's just another Denver team total overspot and they do
play this one in London that you know affects. How
(24:02):
do you feel about it?
Speaker 2 (24:05):
Yeah, well, a couple of things were Denver's concerned. You
come off of the high of beating Philadelphia in Philadelphia
down fourteen in the fourth quarter. It's Sean Payton's job
to make sure that the team is back up for
this one. To your point about the Denver offense beating
up on bad defenses, obviously, you know that's my theory
(24:28):
on this team, and I think it's born out by
the statistics. Just go back and look through game logs
and you'll come to the same conclusion. And the Jets.
You know, it's funny Ski when I go back to
the beginning of the year, Aaron Glenn gets named head
coach here right for the New York Jets, and I
just remember so many people, Oh, Detroit's going to be
(24:49):
in trouble, lost their offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson's on the Bears. Oh,
Aaron Glenn defensive coordinator. He's on the Jets now. And
my immediate answer to all those people. Whatever show I
was on was I bet a ton of overs, and
I never bet a lion's over thinking. Wait a minute,
I better think about this, because Aaron Glenn runs that defense.
(25:10):
Detroit's defense was never any good under him. It's not
any good under the Jets at the Jets, So Denver
should be able to score points. I mean, if if
Sean Payton has their heads and if they're in the
right mental state, they should be able to score against
this Jet defense everybody else has. I don't see why
not forty three and a half probably a little bit low.
(25:31):
Check the weather in London, England, guys. I haven't checked
it yet, so that's always important. You could find rain
there that could affect this game. Denver team total Ski.
I'm gonna look it up real fast while we're on
this game. It looks like twenty five and a half,
so you're asking for twenty seven. I don't know that
that's out of the realm of possibility. The way they play,
(25:53):
you know, just a really good offense. Bo Nicks is
a really good quarterback against really bad defenses.
Speaker 1 (26:00):
I kind of, you know, I just have to verify.
But I know you've mentioned you know that way thinking
with Denver to me multiple times, so that did catch
my attention. There Another game that I'm liking is Cleveland
and Pittsburgh. This one opened Steelers minus five and a half,
seen five and a half or six to open thirty
(26:21):
seven and a half looks like thirty eight.
Speaker 2 (26:23):
And a half.
Speaker 1 (26:24):
And I mean, I like the Browns side and this one, Ravino,
I'm looking at this like you have the Steelers. They
played and where in Dublin, and then they had a
bye week. Right now they play this divisional game versus Browns,
(26:48):
who were they could very easily overlook the Browns and
just look to the next divisional game versus the Bengals.
This spot just doesn't seem right for the Steelers. And
then the same logic that I think, I mean, I
say it all the time in basketball, it can apply
really in any sport. But this Pittsburgh defense is not good.
(27:09):
They're bottom five right now, and if you can't get stops,
how can we expect you to win by margin? So
the Browns defense is very good. They're second best defense
in the league right now as it stands. So I
think getting the better defense, you know they're not gonna
look ahead to anything. I think the Browns plus the
six is a side in this one. What do you think?
Speaker 2 (27:32):
And I think if we just look at matchup ski
fundamentally to enhance what you said about Cleveland's defense being
really good, I think, in particular, Miles Garrett getting after
Aaron Rodgers is a pretty good matchup. If you like Cleveland,
I would Aaron Rodgers generally. I know he's got a
(27:53):
quick release and all, but this Browns pass rush led
by Garrett gets to a lot of quarterbacks, and at
this age is pretty much immobile quarterbacks, So that helps Cleveland.
You know, they had that game. They gave up the
game winning drive to Minnesota last week overseas. It was
a tough loss because they played really well. It was
(28:14):
Dylan Gabriel's first start and he didn't look horrible now
that he's got some jitters gone. And let's face it,
Minnesota is a far better defense than Pittsburgh. As you
mentioned that Pittsburgh's not a great defense bottom five this season.
Minnesota's got a solid pass rush and you have Brian
Flores trying to confuse a rookie quarterback. That's as tough
(28:36):
as it gets for Dylan Gabriel to step into. So
I like where you're going with this one. It is
a divisional matchup. Cleveland I think has already lost twice
inside the division. Certainly you don't want to fall to
zero to three. And you have real hope in this
division still because Baltimore has been so bad, Like most
people thought Baltimore would run away with this division. But
(28:57):
you have no Lamar Jackson, you have no Joe Burrow,
and you have the Steelers sitting on top of the
league or on top of the division right now. So
I would think Cleveland plus even if they lose by
a field goal, they lose by four, which are key
numbers you still cover here. The dog is probably the
right side.
Speaker 1 (29:15):
All right, I'm gonna keep going down the list. Somebody
in the chat mark says he likes both LA teams
this week, So let's touch those two games.
Speaker 2 (29:25):
He's not gonna get your seal of approval. SKI.
Speaker 1 (29:30):
Well, first, first up, I see the Rams in Baltimore.
That's the first one up. And they opened Rams minus
six and a half and got pushed past the seven
to seven and a half total, open forty four. It
looks like forty four and a half the Rams refreshment
memory real quick. But the Rams, they just lost a
(29:51):
couple of games in a row.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
Right, well, the Thursday night or the San Francisco remember
how they You know, San Francisco had nobody and they
wound up beating the Rams until they that extra time
to get ready, but they did. You're right, they lost
the divisional game. Kind of embarrassing.
Speaker 1 (30:07):
Yeah, and that last loss was after after overtime correct
or in overtime?
Speaker 2 (30:17):
Was it? Or was it the Eagles game?
Speaker 1 (30:21):
I'm getting Let me just double check because I just
want to make sure I'm talking about the right one.
I'm pretty sure. I just want to double check to
make sure Rams. Yes, they lost an overtime to the Niners.
So things I don't like for the Rams are that
(30:41):
coming off of an overtime game, could be some fatigue there.
Then they have to travel from LA to Baltimore. I
don't really love that situation. And you have to win
by more than a touchdown. I just think that's a
big ask in the situation. The Ravens have been asked, Rob,
(31:03):
you know, a lot of it has been the defense.
But what will change? I guess what we'll ask in
this one and what I think will change is, I mean,
it could be a few things. As far as the defense.
That made a trade for Gilman, they signed Gardner Johnson,
they get Kyle Hamilton back in the secondary, they get
(31:25):
Marlon Humphrey back. That's a big boost, you know, that's
a lot of what you've been needing out there. So
I think that the secondary can play a lot better
than what they've looked like in recent weeks. Baltimore's run
defense not great, but the Rams, I mean, how good
is the run game for them? Kyraen Williams just keeps
(31:47):
fumbling behind him. They don't really have anybody. They got
Quorum right and Hunter. I don't trust to eat any
of them. I don't trust the Rams run game, is
what I'm trying to say here. So I think that
whether they go with Cooper Reschigan or you know, Huntley, right,
Hunley still there, m hm, you could go to Huntley.
(32:09):
Hunley plays more similarly to what they're used to over
there in Baltimore. And Harball has been good, you know,
when Lamar hasn't hasn't been playing, I think when Huntley's
been out there. So I do see some some ways
for the Ravens to be successful at least keep this
one close. I don't think a lot of people are
(32:31):
saying that the Ravens. How do you say they're saying
that the Ravens. They're saying that Harball has lost the
locker room kind of deal, and you know, Ravens season over,
blah blah blah blah blah. I don't think either one
of those are true. I think the Ravens have played
some tough competition to start this season. I think that
they've been banged up, and I don't think their season
(32:51):
is dead. Even at one and four. It's not dead.
Even if they lose this game, it's not dead because
they have a very easy schedule coming up. So I
think you're a really good effort from them, especially with
the home crowd behind them. I think the Ravens are
the right side in this game, Robbi, you know what
do you think?
Speaker 2 (33:08):
First off, let me just correct us, because Tyler Huntley
isn't there as a backup anymore, so it is Cooper Rush.
And then to your point about Baltimore's offense and how
they need to play it, you really have to hand
it off to Derek Henry a the Rams are a
lesser rush defense than they are a pass defense, and
(33:29):
the reason why their pass defense is generally good, even
though mac Jones carved it up. Their pass defense is
generally good because of their pass rush Jared Versu and company.
They get after a quarterback and Cooper rush. You just
don't want to be in those types of situations down
in distance where Cooper rush is going to get sacked
in this game. So get it to Henry to the
(33:52):
point of people getting back healthy. Maybe the two d
backs are important. Maybe even more important is getting their
left tackle Ronnie Stanley back for this game. More pass protection,
better run blocking. With Ronnie Stanley in there, it's important.
Offensive linemen are always so overlooked as far as that,
you know, as far as team performance is concerned. So
(34:14):
I could see ways for Baltimore to score points here.
It's still a good offense. Still a lot of home
run hitters on that offense, even if it's rush rather
than Lamar. Obviously that's a significant downgrade, but they still
have other guys. Can they stop the Rams? The Rams
are a really good offense too. I would you know,
like you say, what's across is seven. You have to
(34:36):
start really considering the underdog here, a home underdog at
plus seven and a half in the NFL, where games
are decided by one score, that's a big price that
you could take. I mean, if you're going to tease
it the other way and you want to tease the
Rams down to one and a half or a half whatever,
however big the teaser you want to play is. I
could see that as well. But I do think points
(34:58):
are going to happen here, Ski, as long as the
weather's good, and that's that's a key for this game too.
The weather here on the East Coast on Sunday is
supposed to be rain filled. If so, if the field
gets muddied up and whatnot. Although Baltimore, yeah, I think
Baltimore is now on a grass field if I'm right,
you know, that could be a problem as well, So
(35:19):
check the weather report. If it gets into a ground
game back and forth, Baltimore I think becomes even more
of a live underdog. But my first look here is
toward both of these teams scoring points. The Rams have
had extended time off, and like I say, that lost
to San Francisco was embarrassing. The last thing I'll say
real quick here, Ski is in the pecking order of importance.
(35:41):
This is a non conference game. Generally those are the
first ones I look to to play overs on is
non conference games. So we'll see how it goes. But again,
it checked that weather report because mid Atlantic where I am,
we're supposed to get hit with some pretty good rain
on Sunday.
Speaker 1 (35:58):
I'm gonna say I would be care for with the
over just because I mean that last game Houston scored
on every single drive They're the emphasis has to be defense,
especially getting some guys back on that end for the Ravens.
That's just my thought, my two cents. All right, Uh,
(36:19):
let's see what was he said? The LA games? Right,
So Chargers and Miami I don't know this opening. This
opening line screen says minus five and a half is
plus two o eight, So clearly that's not the true opener.
I'll just say it's minus four right now.
Speaker 2 (36:39):
Total.
Speaker 1 (36:41):
Forty three forty three and a half. Okay, Veno. We've
talked about them in the past two weeks. The Chargers
For anybody who hasn't heard me talk about them, who
doesn't know me, the Chargers are my team, and I'm
pretty would you say I'm biased Raveno area, Like, are
(37:02):
you a homer for your team?
Speaker 2 (37:03):
No? Oh no, No, you'll bet against them as easily
as better on him.
Speaker 1 (37:10):
Lakers maybe not so much, but Chargers, I'll bet against them,
especially his favorites. Yeah. So I saw them versus Giants,
I said, oh, hell no minus six and a half.
I saw them versus Commanders with no Joe, I said,
absolutely not. The defensive line can get after him, et cetera,
(37:31):
et cetera. Now they face the Dolphins, and it might
be surprising, Robno, but I think the charters are the
right side in this game. You still don't have Joe
at The offensive line is still struggling, you know, without
him and Slater. You don't even have Hampton anymore. He's
(37:51):
placed on I R. He's done for the season. But
you're facing the Miami team with the targe what three
and two? Now their season is not lost. Joe Alden
is coming back. He didn't even get put on IR like.
He's coming back soon and they can get put right
back on track. Hampton He's gonna take a little bit longer,
(38:12):
but he can come back. The Chargers can still be,
you know, be on track for what they're trying to
accomplish this season. For the Dolphins, they're done. This is
the team where people are done buying in. They're done
with Tua. Tua's he don't even care, he says, if
I throw five interceptions or five toestdowns, I still go
home to my kids afterwards.
Speaker 2 (38:32):
I don't care.
Speaker 1 (38:33):
Like Tyreek Hill has hurt, They're wonning for what the
season is already done for Miami. Miami's defense is terrible.
They're like bottom five and pressure rate. They're not gonna
be able to take advantage of the weakness for the Chargers,
which is the offensive line. If you can't do that,
Joe Herbert is gonna I mean, Herbert is gonna pick
(38:56):
you apart. You know they still got I think Herbert
and the weapons they have on that offense will be
better than what we see from the Dolphins. The Chargers
defensive line can still get after two of offensive line
has been terrible for five years or however long it's
been he's been over there. So this is the one
(39:19):
game where they cannot take advantage of the Chargers weakness
and the Chargers can still run it up on them.
The Chargers season is not lost. This is where you
get a statement went from them to see their back
on say their back on track. I like the Chargers
minus four?
Speaker 2 (39:33):
What do you think?
Speaker 1 (39:34):
Ven know?
Speaker 2 (39:34):
And I'm glad you said it because I was on
the show prior to coming on here where they asked
me what I like in the NFL this week, and
one of the three I gave him was the Chargers.
I just for a lot of the reasons you just listed, Ski.
Most importantly, they're off of back to back losses and
that doesn't sit well with a head coach like Jim Harbough,
who generally can find ways to overcome injury. And I
(39:58):
think this is the perfect kind of elixir the Miami
Dolphins to get right against what Miami has going for
them recently. Is Darren Waller a reincarnation of Darren Waller
at tight end? But boy, their defense didn't stop Carolina
from going up and down the field, and the Chargers,
(40:19):
to their credit, without their two starting tackles last week,
still gained three hundred and thirty six yards against the Commanders, which,
as you pointed out, was a far better defense and
it was a far more motivated team having Jade and
Daniels back. You know, you're not facing Jade and Daniels
this week his dual threat abilities. So fundamentally this matchup
(40:39):
is so different from what the Chargers have seen last
week and actually what they saw at Jackson Dart as well.
Because he can run the football, his legs are problematic
to us or not sit back pressure to watch them
throw picks. I think that LA will try and run
the football here. Certainly Hampton's a bit of a loss,
(41:02):
but Harball, like I say, Harbo's a guy who finds
waste to overcome things. So for me, I think LA defensively,
I think LA offensively, probably better in both spots. And
you really trust Miami here in this game. I don't
care if it's home or not. I just thought Miami
after what we saw last week against Carolina, And you know,
(41:24):
as I think Backski, I get that Carolina did score
thirty against Atlanta at home two, but it doesn't mean
Miami has to go out there and get absolutely shredded
by the Carolina offense. So for me, it would be
the Chargers here. It's not the greatest number of all
when you have to lay four and a half over
the key numbers of three and four, but they still
(41:44):
can probably win this game by six.
Speaker 1 (41:47):
All Right, we're in agreement on that, and I think
we did a pretty good job. We've been off for
like forty two minutes. So before we move it over
to best bets, we'll remind everybody about the Weekend Warrior
deal that we have over here a wager Talk. It's
pretty much forty nine dollars to get all football Saturday,
Sunday and Monday night football included. And Vino, he's been
(42:11):
killing it in football. My top players have been undefeated,
and I have more than one top play this week,
so it's a good time to get involved with that, Vino.
I'll pass it to you. Ask if there's anything else
you'd like to promote, and if you have a best
bet for the show, we love to hear it.
Speaker 2 (42:30):
Yeah, I'll just reiterate Weekend Warrior. Guys, Football Weekend, Big
Football Weekend, get three days for forty nine bucks every
play released. Certainly, if you're interested in selection packages, go
ahead and visit wager talk dot com. I'm gonna get
right to best bets here. Ski. We talked about it
in college football Rutgers Washington over the sixty and well
you're looking at sixty ones mostly now. But I'm gonna
(42:52):
narrow it down for you and tell you what I
played client release here I'll give out on the show.
Client release was Rutgers Washington first half over thirty and
a half. Just think it'll take both of these defenses
a little bit of time to adjust to the opposing offenses,
which are probably the best units on the field here.
So getting to thirty one seventeen, fourteen, twenty one, ten.
You know, there's a million ways to get to thirty one,
(43:14):
and it's available to cash your tickets. So for me,
it's Rutgers Washington first half over thirty and a half.
Speaker 1 (43:20):
All right, good stuff probably, you know, for myself, I
will go with I'll go with Baltimore over the touchdown.
I think that the defense stands up this week, and
you know they're gonna play hard. The season is not over.
At the house behind the crowd, I think they keep
(43:42):
it respectable. So Baltimore plus seven and a half will
be my best bet for the show. Vino, appreciate you
taking it time to break all these games down with me.
You know, I always enjoy doing the show with you.
Everybody in the chat, we appreciate you as well, good cavers,
good people, and you he make to show what it is.
All of us are just trying to cash. So no
(44:03):
shows on the weekend, we will be back, I believe
on Monday. Ye'll be on Monday Night Football too, So
at the very least, so best of luck over the
weekend you guys, and we will catch you next week.
What's up? Everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.
If you are new, we always start to show by
being transparent. Yesterday I only ended up getting to the
window with one play, and I'm not even sure that
I talked about it yesterday, but over forty and a
half after thinking about the game more and more and more,
you know, I talked about it with some of my
(00:23):
friends and my thoughts were, you know, we talked. We said,
how the Giant's gonna score right? And the more I
thought about it, you're missing Carter on the D line
in the secondary. And I did say this. My friends
can vouch for me. I said, Ringo is the weakness
he's been getting picked on. He can get picked on
(00:45):
in this game. And from the first drive he threw
it up one on one with Ringo stakes and Jackson
Dirt plays solid. So ended up getting there with over
forty and a half and it wasn't when. So I'm
happy about that. You know, hopefully you had a good
day as well. How you doing today?
Speaker 2 (01:06):
I'm good, Ski, I'll you know, yesterday was a slight,
slight loss because the big play did win. And I think, boy,
I can't remember, but I think it's the one we
used as the best bet here on the show, the
Georgia Southern Southern miss game over. If it wasn't the
one we used here on the show, I can't even remember,
(01:29):
but that was the big play for clients last night.
The losses came with the Eagles team total over twenty
four and a half and I had seventeen with eight
minutes and forty seconds left in the second quarter and
they never scored again. So unhappy with the Eagles, who
looked like it was going to be a coast job.
If you're gambling guys, never feel that way. Never feel
(01:50):
like it's a coast job, because it's never that easy.
And then the other side that I had was the
too late East Carolina game over, and I was praying
for overtime at the end of that game, ECU was
on a drive, but it didn't happen. So one and two.
But like I say, minimal loss because the big play
was Georgia Southern Southern miss over the total they got
(02:10):
there rather easily.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
I'm not gonna lie, you know. I was happy to
see uh you know, I I've come to dislike a
lot of these Eagle fans. The Jalen Hurts faithful. I
just I don't get it. They love him like he's
the best quarterback on the planet. And I was, for
one happy to see uh, yesterday's performance. I'll just say that.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Got me. Yeah. When Mitchell though, well, you know what,
I live right here, for those who don't know, I
live outside of Philadelphia, maybe thirty five minutes from the stadium.
And it was a bad week overall for Philadelphia fans.
I mean, the Dodgers go into Philly Saturday Sunday, win
two games, win the series. Last night Broncos go into Philly,
(02:58):
beat the Eagles. Eagles go to the Giants get waxed,
and they haven't had a good thing happened to them
in about five days. Ski. And the joke here is
always just look out on the Ben Franklin Bridge, because
these Eagles and Philly fans, these Philly fans will be
jumping off the Ben Franklin Bridge when things don't code
their way. So it hasn't been good here at all
for Philadelphia.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
We'll see if they can clean it up in the
near future. All right, let's get this some actionable info
for today, and we have a lot to talk about,
So We'll start how we always do with ladies first,
So let's get back here to the screen that is
the Aces in the Mercury. Game four of the WNBA
Finals opened a minus one for the Aces and they
(03:42):
are pretty much too everywhere. Total open one sixty four
and a half and it's down in one sixty or
is down as low as one sixty three. Injury report
nobody on there for the Aces. Statu Sabi will not
be available for the Mercury with the concussion, and man,
you know, I mean Mercury have been right there at
(04:06):
the end of two of these games at least they've
had a chance. But now down oh three, it's like, uh,
you know, it's pretty much just wrap it up, no satu.
You see the line difference from Game three in Game four,
I mean Mercury minus four and a half I think
was the closer. Now they're a two point dog. Big move.
(04:28):
I know Satu is important, but is it going to
be you know, it's easy saw two's out. They have
no chance to take the Aces. They win, they win
big or is this line maybe shorter for a reason
then they can still be competitive as far as the Mercury.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
Yeah, full game is hard for me here, Ski, because
my feeling is that the Mercury will play effort wise
according to score. If it's if it starts out and
it's closer, they're in the lead and the crowd is
behind them, then I think they'll stay in this thing.
But if Las Vegas gets out to a big start
(05:07):
like they did in the last game, I don't know
that Phoenix has another comeback in them. I'd really look
more towards endgame with this contest. You mentioned saw that's
twenty two points a game in this series that's now missing.
And I think I had mentioned the other day that
we needed to see the role players play. Dwana Bonner
played fantastic in the last game and they still couldn't win.
(05:31):
So it's a young team. We know Alyssa Thomas is
gonna play as hard as she always plays. I just
worry about everything else surrounding her. If Las Vegas gets
out of the gates quickly again. And I think at
this point in time, Becky Hammond and the Aces have
that mentality of let's just finish this thing off. They
(05:53):
look pretty solid so far through three. I know Phoenix
has been close in a couple you know, the Game
one is the one that really hurt Phoenix in my
estimation here, last last game was a valiant comeback effort.
But I don't know the way Las Vegas is playing
offensively right now. It's interesting, Ski, I think more than
(06:13):
anything that sat two and twenty two points per game
in this series are missing and the total only goes
down from one sixty four and a half to win
sixty three and a half. It almost makes you feel
like the osmakers are telling you Las Vegas is gonna
do what they've been doing the whole time, and that's
score a lot of points. I would have thought that
(06:34):
game would have gone down to about one sixty one
and a half by now, but it hasn't.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
I agree with you on that. It was definitely you know,
it catches my attention at the total didn't move start two.
It is worth a lot of points. Yeah, that's tough
as far as the total. I mean, I would think
under like you said, but thought wise, let's just talk
(07:00):
about it like this for a second. I mean, human
nature could kick in for the Aces up three zero
already kind of thinking they won. Maybe the Mercury have
some pride come out here and you know they don't
want to get swept on their home court. That could
be a thing. What else can the Mercury do basketball wise?
(07:21):
I mean, they still have talent Khalid Copper. I would
look towards her points because if they're going to be
in a game, they're going to need a big offensive
performance from her. I think Natasha Mack can bring a
lot of what they were lacking. I mean, I just
think back to when I was watching that game, that
last game three for one to start the game. Aces
(07:44):
weren't missing a lot, right, but a few times they
were missing and it wasn't a foul. They were getting
a rebound and getting a second chance to shoot again.
So Natasha Mac should be able to help clean up
the boards and finish possessions as well as maybe he'll
protect the rim. So I think that can be something
(08:06):
that's positive for Phoenix. And uh, the line, I don't know.
The line just makes me think that Phoenix can can
still take this game. I don't feel very strongly about it.
I haven't played it yet, but I have a small
lane to Phoenix at home. Plus the two points. Yeah,
(08:26):
they didn't put Natasha max rebounds up or else, I'd
be very interested in that do want to. Bonner's probably
another person who could you know who will have to rebound,
But if Max's gonna be playing a lot of minutes,
I don't know that I want to bet Bonner. So
that's why I haven't really gotten there. I was waiting,
wait and wait, and thinking Mac would get put up,
but it still hasn't been put up yet. So lean
(08:48):
Mercury here plus the two lean under anything else you
want to touch on this one before you move on.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
Yeah, it's just hard for me. Ski. Like you said,
I haven't this game, and again I'll just reiterate simply
because I think it's more of an in game type
of play. You want to look and see where Phoenix
is at, where their heads are at, and maybe even
to your point, where Las Vegas heads are at. You know,
a human nature would be, let's just go home and
clinch this thing. We'll do it in front of our
(09:17):
own fans. That does happen periodically. I look at their
team total of eighty two, the Las Vegas aces, and
just every single thing we've seen in this series wants
me to just say bet over eighty two for the
aces and let the chips fall where they may with
everything else but haven't played, might not play a lot
(09:38):
of other stuff we can do tonight other than that.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
So for Jay, really quick, he says, how do you
go from four and a half to two in a
close out game with the star player missing from an
opposing team? It was Phoenix minus four and a half.
Now it's Phoenix plus two. But it is a six
and a half point moves. I don't know if I
maybe said it wrong or something, but it was a
six and a half point move. People in the chat,
this is what I'm thinking here, you know, so look
(10:03):
last game, everybody's saying, you know, myself included, I think,
you know, Phoenix down oh two, gonna get you know,
the kitchen sink game. You know what I'm saying. Everybody
thought that way. Everybody bet that way. You saw how
it was officiated. It looked like we were in Las
Vegas already. So now yeah, now nobody wants anything to
(10:32):
do with Phoenix. Now everybody's better than if Aces or nothing.
It's over already and they're missing side too. There's no
way the Mercury can win. Look at Greg Gibson here,
says Aces, No, they can beat them to the league
probably to lose to make some money by playing another game.
I mean, we always say that in the NBA, you know,
I think true. If somebody's getting a whistle tonight, it
(10:54):
will finally be the Mercury. So combination of that Natasha
mac Out on the board finishing possessions and them just
playing with some pride and the Aces potentially overlooking them,
I think Mercury plus would be uh decide, I'd have
to land on there if you know, it won't be
(11:16):
a big bet, But.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Can we get Sammy Wickham to finally make a couple
of threes and at least let us know she's involved
in the series. It's I mean that that's such a
key spot for Phoenix to make threes and it just
hasn't been the last couple of games and she's been
non existent. So role player at home, I don't know.
If she starts hitting from the from the outset could
(11:41):
be a different deal. But there's too many ifs for
to get.
Speaker 1 (11:47):
And then one more last if if the refs allowed
them to actually play defense, that's how Phoenix has a chance.
They're calling foul foul, foul. Phoenix has no shot. They
got here by playing defense. Aces out of offense team.
So if you're just calling foul foul, foul, you're giving
advantage to the ass. If they allowed him to play
physical and play defense, Mercury can have a chance.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
Tell them that Tasha Mac just go rough Asia up.
That's what we need. You got five pounds just man?
Speaker 1 (12:18):
All right? Yeah, that that I'm not gonna lie. That
might be a one percenter for me, you know, all right?
Speaker 2 (12:25):
That used to be a club, the one.
Speaker 1 (12:31):
Let's get this out the way really quick, because it
is a big game. Although I don't have a lot
to say about it, but Detroit and Seattle school Ball
and Kirby. Just in short, I trust School, like you
know he's gonna I mean, you know how great of
(12:51):
a picture is regardless what the outcome is today, that's
somebody I would you know, I personally am not running
to the window to go better and over if I
see him on the mount. Kirby I respect as well.
And I think that Seattle has a solid bullpen. I
do worry that they may have taxed the bullpen a
little bit in these past couple of games. So I
(13:13):
think like that probably first five under, even though I
expect School to go long he has to, and when
I think like that, it should include the full game.
I don't know. I'm back and forth here. I can
only try to bet some way of an under anything
from you here on this one, Robo.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
Yeah, I wouldn't argue that the first five inning under
is two and a half. Man's that's as low as
I've ever seen two and a half. But it's probably justified, Ski,
because honestly, you could see something like one to one
or one nothing at the end of five with these
two guys on the hill George Kirby against the Tigers offense,
(13:55):
and I think the only person that got to Scooble
in Game one were the two home runs that were
hit by Polanco. I think he hit two solos off
of him. Otherwise nobody touched him. I'm with you, though,
if it's if I'm gonna play, I'm gonna play Tarik Schoogle,
and if I'm aj Hinch, I'm just letting him go.
(14:17):
H He's definitely capable of getting eight innings and it's
a tough ballpark to score runs, and a total full
game total is six Ski, I guess I would probably
lean that way, maybe under six, or I would just
play Detroit at plus whether or not plus price. I've
played Detroit in some way, shape or form, but I
(14:37):
think I would rather play under simply because the Tigers
offense doesn't score hardly ever, so it should be a
good pitchers matchup.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Yeah, some way, shape or form. I'm trying to get
there with the under in that one. Talk a little
bit of college football and he'll be rob, you know,
talking a little bit more of this than me. But
we'll look at South Florida and Norte Texas. This one
opened up minus one and a half for North Texas.
Not a big move, I see, you know who is
(15:07):
a consensus and total went up a point from sixty
six to sixty seven. So I'll just pass it on
over to you, Ravino. Are you looking at this one
from her side or a total perspective?
Speaker 2 (15:18):
Well, you could look at it from bold ski. I
think the safer way might be to look at it
from a totals perspective, but South Florida could be an
option as well. The only trouble you have with the
USF is you haven't seen them on the road yet,
but you've seen them play tough teams. I mean, we
saw the first two games of the year, they beat
(15:38):
Boise State. They won their second game, they went to
play Miami Florida and got beat No shame there. Miami
Florida is probably a top five team in the country
right now. North Texas has not played that type of schedule,
but man, they score points and at home. You know,
they actually at North Texas today, they canceled all the
afternoon classes so that everybody could show up at this
(16:00):
stadium for tonight's game. Big deal for North Texas to
be on Friday night television. Both quarterbacks really good here,
but there's a difference in age. Obviously. The quarterback for unt,
Drew Mestimaker, is a young quarterback of freshman who's played really,
really well. And on the other side, you've got a
(16:22):
guy that you know, people project maybe to be in
the NFL in Byron Brown. So I think you're going
to get a lot of offense here. Ski The question
just becomes you have to start looking at key numbers.
Sixty seven in the world of totals is pretty dead.
It's sixty six and sixty eight are more key numbers.
So you have to get to sixty eight here. They
(16:44):
probably can. I think USF could be a look simply
because they played the far better schedule, and if you
want to use strength of opposition as a guideline, you'd
probably look that way. But to me, it'll be an
up and down game here. Hopefully when you get in
the scoring areas, you get scores and you don't get turnovers,
(17:05):
which always hurt. But these teams can score from distance
as well, so for me it would be a play
on the over. And I do think there's at least
this morning, there were a couple of places where you
could shop at sixty six and a half. I don't
know that that's necessary, but if you because sixty seven
is a dead number, but if you can find it,
you obviously want to take it.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
All right, good stuff. Mark likes North Texas and that one.
Next we have Fresno and Fresno State and Colorado State.
Total did open forty five and a half in this
one and is up as high as forty seven and
a half. Not much movement on the side. I don't
know why, you know, but I just have a filling
(17:47):
you're in line with that total once again going to
the over.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
And you know, it's more of a proactive kind of
place Ski, the head coach for Colorado State j Norvel
he used to coach at Neval Arena. He turned over
the play calling duties to his offensive coordinator, Matt Mummy.
For those who don't know, Matt Mummy's the son of
Hal Mummy, who was kind of the inventor of the
(18:11):
air raid. He and Mike Leach kind of perfected the
air raid back at Kentucky. But Matt Mummy's cut from
that cloth and he got his first chance to call
plays last week. It was minimal, but Colorado State did
have their season high yards per play average, They had
their season high points scored, and it was done against
(18:32):
San Diego State, which is a really good defense on
the road. Colorado State played so proactively. I'm thinking to myself, well,
if they could do that against San Diego State, then
coming back home against Fresno State, which is playing well
for another first year head coach, Matt Enz from the
FCS ranks, then they could probably get to mid twenties
(18:54):
here against this team. Colorado State also plays zero defense.
They gave up forty five to See Diego State last
week in San Diego hadn't scored forty five in the
last couple of years, so you start putting those pieces together.
It's a little bit of guesswork that Colorado State is
on more of an offensive track with this guy calling
(19:17):
the plays. But I think it's worthy of a slight
play here. And you know what, the money has gone
that way, Ski, I think it's gone up either one
and a half or two points. The total has since
the openers, so I'd be on that. I wouldn't let
it go much higher because you certainly can't count on
Colorado State. It's just me trying to be proactive.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
All right, Let's get to that last one. We have
one more where the total went up. Tonight it opened
fifty nine and a half, and it's up. I'm seeing
sixty one and a half's out there. I mean you
should a line shop. I see it sixty and a half,
sixty one, sixty one and a half, So depending on
what you like, as always line shop. And for the side,
(19:57):
it opened ten and a half. For Washington, I'm seeing
it as high as twelve out there right now. That
might be a Stelle twelve. Usually south Point, oh no,
south Point numbers are usually different than everywhere else for
whatever reason. And I never actually go to South Point
to verify. It's just too out the way from where
I live. But you know, I don't know. It's another
(20:22):
one where they're steaming it up. I know, I got
to pull your arm to bet and over? Is it
Friday night? Over tonight?
Speaker 2 (20:30):
I said it yesterday? Is there really a line for unders?
They have that? Do they have that line at the
sports book? And by the way, South Points a little
far for you, but I've seen you out there. I'm
gonna say this. I'm gonna ask you this, okay, because
I know you'll have answers for this. Tell me what
(20:52):
you think. What immediately when you hear the teams Iowa
and Minnesota defense and slow scoring, right, not a lot
of offense, all defense, right, Rutgers has played both of
those teams.
Speaker 1 (21:06):
I remember Scorers played Iowa. That was a high scoring game.
Speaker 2 (21:09):
Sixty six, Right, they scored twenty eight. And Iowa doesn't
score on anybody. They got thirty eight Rutgers. It's a
different tale with this team. All of a sudden, They're
not the defensive team they used to be, you know,
grinded out. They're a high scoring team that gives up
a lot of points. Minnesota ski just to add a
little context to it. They went and played the very
next week in Minnesota. It was thirty one to twenty eight,
(21:31):
a fifty nine point game against Minnesota where they actually
forced Minnesota to have to throw the ball to you know,
keep up. They've also played two Mid American teams. They
played Ohio U Rutgers did. We saw the very beginning
of the year. The game was very high scoring against OHIOU,
and then they played Miami of Ohio and that game
got into the sixties. So Rutgers has definitely taken on
(21:54):
a new form all offense. The quarterback here very very good,
and the skill position is really good. Fly all the
way out to Washington, and certainly if you can score
on Iowa and Minnesota, you can score on Washington. And
the problem for Rutgers is gonna be Washington's offense is
(22:16):
fifty times better than anything Iowa and Minnesota puts on
the field. So I fear for how much Rutgers could
give up here. This totally sixty I don't know, thirty
four twenty seven wins this game. Washington probably gets a
little more thirty eight twenty seven wins this game. But
I would think that this has to be more of
(22:37):
a mid sixties game than a low sixties game, so
to me, you know, we talk about logic school all
the time here on this show. Logic School tells me
this one should get over and the money has gone
that way. Just today this morning, I've seen the Rays
from fifty nine and a half to sixty one.
Speaker 1 (22:55):
All right, pinostays he's gonna sit back, pop up in
the cold, and expect some fireworks tonight in college football.
Get out of that underline, all right, let's uh, Now
I want to get involved. We'll talk a little bit
of professional football NFL Week six, and we do like
to bounce around, so I just uh, I'm just gonna
(23:18):
put that up there for the NFL portion of the show.
There's a lot of games that catch my attention this week, Robie, know,
I know, I like to just go through the list.
I guess we'll do it that way again. Number one.
I'll say this because I know it's your team and
(23:38):
we've talked about this already, but Denver versus the Less Stands,
they beat up on them, right, So going in there
to face the Jets, you've seen Denver go from five
and a half up to seven total go from forty
one and a half to forty three and a half.
It's just another Denver team total overspot and they do
play this one in London that you know affects. How
(24:02):
do you feel about it?
Speaker 2 (24:05):
Yeah, well, a couple of things were Denver's concerned. You
come off of the high of beating Philadelphia in Philadelphia
down fourteen in the fourth quarter. It's Sean Payton's job
to make sure that the team is back up for
this one. To your point about the Denver offense beating
up on bad defenses, obviously, you know that's my theory
(24:28):
on this team, and I think it's born out by
the statistics. Just go back and look through game logs
and you'll come to the same conclusion. And the Jets.
You know, it's funny Ski when I go back to
the beginning of the year, Aaron Glenn gets named head
coach here right for the New York Jets, and I
just remember so many people, Oh, Detroit's going to be
(24:49):
in trouble, lost their offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson's on the Bears. Oh,
Aaron Glenn defensive coordinator. He's on the Jets now. And
my immediate answer to all those people. Whatever show I
was on was I bet a ton of overs, and
I never bet a lion's over thinking. Wait a minute,
I better think about this, because Aaron Glenn runs that defense.
(25:10):
Detroit's defense was never any good under him. It's not
any good under the Jets at the Jets, So Denver
should be able to score points. I mean, if if
Sean Payton has their heads and if they're in the
right mental state, they should be able to score against
this Jet defense everybody else has. I don't see why
not forty three and a half probably a little bit low.
(25:31):
Check the weather in London, England, guys. I haven't checked
it yet, so that's always important. You could find rain
there that could affect this game. Denver team total Ski.
I'm gonna look it up real fast while we're on
this game. It looks like twenty five and a half,
so you're asking for twenty seven. I don't know that
that's out of the realm of possibility. The way they play,
(25:53):
you know, just a really good offense. Bo Nicks is
a really good quarterback against really bad defenses.
Speaker 1 (26:00):
I kind of, you know, I just have to verify.
But I know you've mentioned you know that way thinking
with Denver to me multiple times, so that did catch
my attention. There Another game that I'm liking is Cleveland
and Pittsburgh. This one opened Steelers minus five and a half,
seen five and a half or six to open thirty
(26:21):
seven and a half looks like thirty eight.
Speaker 2 (26:23):
And a half.
Speaker 1 (26:24):
And I mean, I like the Browns side and this one, Ravino,
I'm looking at this like you have the Steelers. They
played and where in Dublin, and then they had a
bye week. Right now they play this divisional game versus Browns,
(26:48):
who were they could very easily overlook the Browns and
just look to the next divisional game versus the Bengals.
This spot just doesn't seem right for the Steelers. And
then the same logic that I think, I mean, I
say it all the time in basketball, it can apply
really in any sport. But this Pittsburgh defense is not good.
(27:09):
They're bottom five right now, and if you can't get stops,
how can we expect you to win by margin? So
the Browns defense is very good. They're second best defense
in the league right now as it stands. So I
think getting the better defense, you know they're not gonna
look ahead to anything. I think the Browns plus the
six is a side in this one. What do you think?
Speaker 2 (27:32):
And I think if we just look at matchup ski
fundamentally to enhance what you said about Cleveland's defense being
really good, I think, in particular, Miles Garrett getting after
Aaron Rodgers is a pretty good matchup. If you like Cleveland,
I would Aaron Rodgers generally. I know he's got a
(27:53):
quick release and all, but this Browns pass rush led
by Garrett gets to a lot of quarterbacks, and at
this age is pretty much immobile quarterbacks, So that helps Cleveland.
You know, they had that game. They gave up the
game winning drive to Minnesota last week overseas. It was
a tough loss because they played really well. It was
(28:14):
Dylan Gabriel's first start and he didn't look horrible now
that he's got some jitters gone. And let's face it,
Minnesota is a far better defense than Pittsburgh. As you
mentioned that Pittsburgh's not a great defense bottom five this season.
Minnesota's got a solid pass rush and you have Brian
Flores trying to confuse a rookie quarterback. That's as tough
(28:36):
as it gets for Dylan Gabriel to step into. So
I like where you're going with this one. It is
a divisional matchup. Cleveland I think has already lost twice
inside the division. Certainly you don't want to fall to
zero to three. And you have real hope in this
division still because Baltimore has been so bad, Like most
people thought Baltimore would run away with this division. But
(28:57):
you have no Lamar Jackson, you have no Joe Burrow,
and you have the Steelers sitting on top of the
league or on top of the division right now. So
I would think Cleveland plus even if they lose by
a field goal, they lose by four, which are key
numbers you still cover here. The dog is probably the
right side.
Speaker 1 (29:15):
All right, I'm gonna keep going down the list. Somebody
in the chat mark says he likes both LA teams
this week, So let's touch those two games.
Speaker 2 (29:25):
He's not gonna get your seal of approval. SKI.
Speaker 1 (29:30):
Well, first, first up, I see the Rams in Baltimore.
That's the first one up. And they opened Rams minus
six and a half and got pushed past the seven
to seven and a half total, open forty four. It
looks like forty four and a half the Rams refreshment
memory real quick. But the Rams, they just lost a
(29:51):
couple of games in a row.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
Right, well, the Thursday night or the San Francisco remember
how they You know, San Francisco had nobody and they
wound up beating the Rams until they that extra time
to get ready, but they did. You're right, they lost
the divisional game. Kind of embarrassing.
Speaker 1 (30:07):
Yeah, and that last loss was after after overtime correct
or in overtime?
Speaker 2 (30:17):
Was it? Or was it the Eagles game?
Speaker 1 (30:21):
I'm getting Let me just double check because I just
want to make sure I'm talking about the right one.
I'm pretty sure. I just want to double check to
make sure Rams. Yes, they lost an overtime to the Niners.
So things I don't like for the Rams are that
(30:41):
coming off of an overtime game, could be some fatigue there.
Then they have to travel from LA to Baltimore. I
don't really love that situation. And you have to win
by more than a touchdown. I just think that's a
big ask in the situation. The Ravens have been asked, Rob,
(31:03):
you know, a lot of it has been the defense.
But what will change? I guess what we'll ask in
this one and what I think will change is, I mean,
it could be a few things. As far as the defense.
That made a trade for Gilman, they signed Gardner Johnson,
they get Kyle Hamilton back in the secondary, they get
(31:25):
Marlon Humphrey back. That's a big boost, you know, that's
a lot of what you've been needing out there. So
I think that the secondary can play a lot better
than what they've looked like in recent weeks. Baltimore's run
defense not great, but the Rams, I mean, how good
is the run game for them? Kyraen Williams just keeps
(31:47):
fumbling behind him. They don't really have anybody. They got
Quorum right and Hunter. I don't trust to eat any
of them. I don't trust the Rams run game, is
what I'm trying to say here. So I think that
whether they go with Cooper Reschigan or you know, Huntley, right,
Hunley still there, m hm, you could go to Huntley.
(32:09):
Hunley plays more similarly to what they're used to over
there in Baltimore. And Harball has been good, you know,
when Lamar hasn't hasn't been playing, I think when Huntley's
been out there. So I do see some some ways
for the Ravens to be successful at least keep this
one close. I don't think a lot of people are
(32:31):
saying that the Ravens. How do you say they're saying
that the Ravens. They're saying that Harball has lost the
locker room kind of deal, and you know, Ravens season over,
blah blah blah blah blah. I don't think either one
of those are true. I think the Ravens have played
some tough competition to start this season. I think that
they've been banged up, and I don't think their season
(32:51):
is dead. Even at one and four. It's not dead.
Even if they lose this game, it's not dead because
they have a very easy schedule coming up. So I
think you're a really good effort from them, especially with
the home crowd behind them. I think the Ravens are
the right side in this game, Robbi, you know what
do you think?
Speaker 2 (33:08):
First off, let me just correct us, because Tyler Huntley
isn't there as a backup anymore, so it is Cooper Rush.
And then to your point about Baltimore's offense and how
they need to play it, you really have to hand
it off to Derek Henry a the Rams are a
lesser rush defense than they are a pass defense, and
(33:29):
the reason why their pass defense is generally good, even
though mac Jones carved it up. Their pass defense is
generally good because of their pass rush Jared Versu and company.
They get after a quarterback and Cooper rush. You just
don't want to be in those types of situations down
in distance where Cooper rush is going to get sacked
in this game. So get it to Henry to the
(33:52):
point of people getting back healthy. Maybe the two d
backs are important. Maybe even more important is getting their
left tackle Ronnie Stanley back for this game. More pass protection,
better run blocking. With Ronnie Stanley in there, it's important.
Offensive linemen are always so overlooked as far as that,
you know, as far as team performance is concerned. So
(34:14):
I could see ways for Baltimore to score points here.
It's still a good offense. Still a lot of home
run hitters on that offense, even if it's rush rather
than Lamar. Obviously that's a significant downgrade, but they still
have other guys. Can they stop the Rams? The Rams
are a really good offense too. I would you know,
like you say, what's across is seven. You have to
(34:36):
start really considering the underdog here, a home underdog at
plus seven and a half in the NFL, where games
are decided by one score, that's a big price that
you could take. I mean, if you're going to tease
it the other way and you want to tease the
Rams down to one and a half or a half whatever,
however big the teaser you want to play is. I
could see that as well. But I do think points
(34:58):
are going to happen here, Ski, as long as the
weather's good, and that's that's a key for this game too.
The weather here on the East Coast on Sunday is
supposed to be rain filled. If so, if the field
gets muddied up and whatnot. Although Baltimore, yeah, I think
Baltimore is now on a grass field if I'm right,
you know, that could be a problem as well, So
(35:19):
check the weather report. If it gets into a ground
game back and forth, Baltimore I think becomes even more
of a live underdog. But my first look here is
toward both of these teams scoring points. The Rams have
had extended time off, and like I say, that lost
to San Francisco was embarrassing. The last thing I'll say
real quick here, Ski is in the pecking order of importance.
(35:41):
This is a non conference game. Generally those are the
first ones I look to to play overs on is
non conference games. So we'll see how it goes. But again,
it checked that weather report because mid Atlantic where I am,
we're supposed to get hit with some pretty good rain
on Sunday.
Speaker 1 (35:58):
I'm gonna say I would be care for with the
over just because I mean that last game Houston scored
on every single drive They're the emphasis has to be defense,
especially getting some guys back on that end for the Ravens.
That's just my thought, my two cents. All right, Uh,
(36:19):
let's see what was he said? The LA games? Right,
So Chargers and Miami I don't know this opening. This
opening line screen says minus five and a half is
plus two o eight, So clearly that's not the true opener.
I'll just say it's minus four right now.
Speaker 2 (36:39):
Total.
Speaker 1 (36:41):
Forty three forty three and a half. Okay, Veno. We've
talked about them in the past two weeks. The Chargers
For anybody who hasn't heard me talk about them, who
doesn't know me, the Chargers are my team, and I'm
pretty would you say I'm biased Raveno area, Like, are
(37:02):
you a homer for your team?
Speaker 2 (37:03):
No? Oh no, No, you'll bet against them as easily
as better on him.
Speaker 1 (37:10):
Lakers maybe not so much, but Chargers, I'll bet against them,
especially his favorites. Yeah. So I saw them versus Giants,
I said, oh, hell no minus six and a half.
I saw them versus Commanders with no Joe, I said,
absolutely not. The defensive line can get after him, et cetera,
(37:31):
et cetera. Now they face the Dolphins, and it might
be surprising, Robno, but I think the charters are the
right side in this game. You still don't have Joe
at The offensive line is still struggling, you know, without
him and Slater. You don't even have Hampton anymore. He's
(37:51):
placed on I R. He's done for the season. But
you're facing the Miami team with the targe what three
and two? Now their season is not lost. Joe Alden
is coming back. He didn't even get put on IR like.
He's coming back soon and they can get put right
back on track. Hampton He's gonna take a little bit longer,
(38:12):
but he can come back. The Chargers can still be,
you know, be on track for what they're trying to
accomplish this season. For the Dolphins, they're done. This is
the team where people are done buying in. They're done
with Tua. Tua's he don't even care, he says, if
I throw five interceptions or five toestdowns, I still go
home to my kids afterwards.
Speaker 2 (38:32):
I don't care.
Speaker 1 (38:33):
Like Tyreek Hill has hurt, They're wonning for what the
season is already done for Miami. Miami's defense is terrible.
They're like bottom five and pressure rate. They're not gonna
be able to take advantage of the weakness for the Chargers,
which is the offensive line. If you can't do that,
Joe Herbert is gonna I mean, Herbert is gonna pick
(38:56):
you apart. You know they still got I think Herbert
and the weapons they have on that offense will be
better than what we see from the Dolphins. The Chargers
defensive line can still get after two of offensive line
has been terrible for five years or however long it's
been he's been over there. So this is the one
(39:19):
game where they cannot take advantage of the Chargers weakness
and the Chargers can still run it up on them.
The Chargers season is not lost. This is where you
get a statement went from them to see their back
on say their back on track. I like the Chargers
minus four?
Speaker 2 (39:33):
What do you think?
Speaker 1 (39:34):
Ven know?
Speaker 2 (39:34):
And I'm glad you said it because I was on
the show prior to coming on here where they asked
me what I like in the NFL this week, and
one of the three I gave him was the Chargers.
I just for a lot of the reasons you just listed, Ski.
Most importantly, they're off of back to back losses and
that doesn't sit well with a head coach like Jim Harbough,
who generally can find ways to overcome injury. And I
(39:58):
think this is the perfect kind of elixir the Miami
Dolphins to get right against what Miami has going for
them recently. Is Darren Waller a reincarnation of Darren Waller
at tight end? But boy, their defense didn't stop Carolina
from going up and down the field, and the Chargers,
(40:19):
to their credit, without their two starting tackles last week,
still gained three hundred and thirty six yards against the Commanders, which,
as you pointed out, was a far better defense and
it was a far more motivated team having Jade and
Daniels back. You know, you're not facing Jade and Daniels
this week his dual threat abilities. So fundamentally this matchup
(40:39):
is so different from what the Chargers have seen last
week and actually what they saw at Jackson Dart as well.
Because he can run the football, his legs are problematic
to us or not sit back pressure to watch them
throw picks. I think that LA will try and run
the football here. Certainly Hampton's a bit of a loss,
(41:02):
but Harball, like I say, Harbo's a guy who finds
waste to overcome things. So for me, I think LA defensively,
I think LA offensively, probably better in both spots. And
you really trust Miami here in this game. I don't
care if it's home or not. I just thought Miami
after what we saw last week against Carolina, And you know,
(41:24):
as I think Backski, I get that Carolina did score
thirty against Atlanta at home two, but it doesn't mean
Miami has to go out there and get absolutely shredded
by the Carolina offense. So for me, it would be
the Chargers here. It's not the greatest number of all
when you have to lay four and a half over
the key numbers of three and four, but they still
(41:44):
can probably win this game by six.
Speaker 1 (41:47):
All Right, we're in agreement on that, and I think
we did a pretty good job. We've been off for
like forty two minutes. So before we move it over
to best bets, we'll remind everybody about the Weekend Warrior
deal that we have over here a wager Talk. It's
pretty much forty nine dollars to get all football Saturday,
Sunday and Monday night football included. And Vino, he's been
(42:11):
killing it in football. My top players have been undefeated,
and I have more than one top play this week,
so it's a good time to get involved with that, Vino.
I'll pass it to you. Ask if there's anything else
you'd like to promote, and if you have a best
bet for the show, we love to hear it.
Speaker 2 (42:30):
Yeah, I'll just reiterate Weekend Warrior. Guys, Football Weekend, Big
Football Weekend, get three days for forty nine bucks every
play released. Certainly, if you're interested in selection packages, go
ahead and visit wager talk dot com. I'm gonna get
right to best bets here. Ski. We talked about it
in college football Rutgers Washington over the sixty and well
you're looking at sixty ones mostly now. But I'm gonna
(42:52):
narrow it down for you and tell you what I
played client release here I'll give out on the show.
Client release was Rutgers Washington first half over thirty and
a half. Just think it'll take both of these defenses
a little bit of time to adjust to the opposing offenses,
which are probably the best units on the field here.
So getting to thirty one seventeen, fourteen, twenty one, ten.
You know, there's a million ways to get to thirty one,
(43:14):
and it's available to cash your tickets. So for me,
it's Rutgers Washington first half over thirty and a half.
Speaker 1 (43:20):
All right, good stuff probably, you know, for myself, I
will go with I'll go with Baltimore over the touchdown.
I think that the defense stands up this week, and
you know they're gonna play hard. The season is not over.
At the house behind the crowd, I think they keep
(43:42):
it respectable. So Baltimore plus seven and a half will
be my best bet for the show. Vino, appreciate you
taking it time to break all these games down with me.
You know, I always enjoy doing the show with you.
Everybody in the chat, we appreciate you as well, good cavers,
good people, and you he make to show what it is.
All of us are just trying to cash. So no
(44:03):
shows on the weekend, we will be back, I believe
on Monday. Ye'll be on Monday Night Football too, So
at the very least, so best of luck over the
weekend you guys, and we will catch you next week.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
CrimeLess: Hillbilly Heist
It’s 1996 in rural North Carolina, and an oddball crew makes history when they pull off America’s third largest cash heist. But it’s all downhill from there. Join host Johnny Knoxville as he unspools a wild and woolly tale about a group of regular ‘ol folks who risked it all for a chance at a better life. CrimeLess: Hillbilly Heist answers the question: what would you do with 17.3 million dollars? The answer includes diamond rings, mansions, velvet Elvis paintings, plus a run for the border, murder-for-hire-plots, and FBI busts.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com