May 9, 2025 • 36 mins
We have a pair of Games on the NHL betting slate! What types of NHL picks are there to take advantage for today? Join The Prez and Carmine for PuckTime as we look at NHL picks and predictions today for May 9th surrounding the Maple Leafs vs Panthers and Stars vs Jets!
Tuesday's games for discussion:
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Florida Panthers Game 3
Dallas Stars @ Winnipeg Jets Game 2
Tuesday's games for discussion:
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Florida Panthers Game 3
Dallas Stars @ Winnipeg Jets Game 2
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Happy Friday, guys.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
We are live on Puck Time talking Maple Leafs, Panthers,
Jets and the Stars.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Here.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
It's Friday, it's May ninth, and we are ready to
rock and roll. Do a lot of these two man
shows lately, but not today. Myself Andrew Carmine and Press
ready to break things down and go over some game sides, totals, props,
team totals, you name it. Shout out to all of
you guys right here in the live chat and all
of you guys that tune in afterwards.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
We appreciate every single one of you. Carm Good morning
to you, my friend. How are you? How is your
night last night?
Speaker 2 (00:34):
And any thoughts on this Panthers Leafs game being called
the biggest game for the Leafs and years.
Speaker 3 (00:44):
Well, my nights. It started great my day, a couple
four percent winners in Europa, plus four percent winners in
the semifinals, and then I thought, well, okay, I'm gonna
steamroll right into a win by the Canes that did
not happen the Washington with one apologies on that play.
Then I wake up to news that there's like a
(01:05):
frost warning up north in Toronto and it's got to
because the Leaves are up to nothing in their series.
Andrew that we're getting possible snow in May. Unbelievable, but
we got the press dialed in today. He's psyched to
talk about this Leafs of Florida one Edmonton Oiders and
(01:25):
the Toronto may Beliefs, both up to nothing in their
series and both in a series in which they were
decided underdog. So it's going to be an interesting playoffs.
It's definitely an interesting second round of the playoffs. Now
we're going to touch on, of course, the other Canadian team,
the Winnipeg Jets, taking on the Dallas Stars, looking to
see if they can use that white out in Winnipeg
(01:49):
to even that series up at one. Pres Welcome to
the show, my friend. You must be hyped about tonight's game.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
I am, I am. I'm just typing to Kelly. Oh
my god, Okay, I'm done. How can I not be
hyped about tonight's game, karm. It's the biggest game in
the history of the world. I mean, there's nobody, no,
come on, dude, we're up to nothing. Of course, every
game now is important that we win the third game.
(02:21):
The fourth game is gonna be the biggest game ever.
The Leaves are in uncharted territory. What can I tell you?
But yeah, I'm excited about it. Listen, I'm I'm a
I'm a jaded leaf fan. The way I think tonight's
gonna go. The Leafs go up five nothing, seventy two
(02:42):
seconds to go, they lose seven to five.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
You know, the last time they're up to Andrew, the
last time the Leafs were up nineteen eight, nineteen to seven,
I had hair Andrew back. Then. If the lead they
lost the series, they lost.
Speaker 4 (03:00):
That's the series.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
But if the Leaves go on and play in the
Standy Cup, I'm gonna grow my hair back, all three
of them. I'm gonna and I'll just curl them like
Homer Simpson does with his but prayers. I'm just gonna
throw it right back to you. Let's talk about this
Leafs game and give us your take on it.
Speaker 4 (03:18):
Yeah, before we do that, car, I just want to
say to everybody, look the blue Line, we're having a
little bit of issues right now. There's a six week
corridor where Matthew donates his time to a bunch of
charity hockey events, most of them are for Alzheimer's what
was I saying? Kidding? Come on, you didn't get that
(03:43):
joke anyway. Anyway, anyway, we're the show's not going anywhere.
We're gonna be back. There's no one pm today, Matthew.
The game time for his charity event is one, I
mean an eight fifteen at eleven and one fifteen. We
couldn't get it through. We'll be back on Monday. Our
(04:06):
sincere apologies Andrew, Dan and Carb shout out to the
three of you. What a quick adjustment. We found this
out fifteen minutes before puck time begun and we put
puck time together that quickly. That's how professional.
Speaker 1 (04:19):
Duet me is.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
I just found out. My afternoon opened up. What do
you mean, I'm thankful for you. My afternoon just open.
I might go I'm not going to play nine holes now.
I mean, I'm laughing.
Speaker 4 (04:30):
I'm doing I'm doing eighteen bench.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
I feel the oldest of this group. I think I
actually am you are you are on my way? I
was on my way out the door because I have
a doc's appointment. I was on my way out the
door because there was supposed to be no puck time
today at eleven. Yeah, but I did in a boat
Face came back in and wanted to do this show.
I didn't want any anybody to think I actually turtled
(04:55):
because I lost play last night in the NHL. We're
gonna lose them atself point. It's still been a good,
very solid forty five days past forty five days of NHL,
so we'll keep on plugging away. But pres this is
one of those ones where the price is so high
on Florida. The initial price that came out was minus
two twenty. The minute the game two was over, the
(05:19):
price came out of two twenty on Florida. If you
like Florida, would you recommend I'm just saying it to
you as a capper, If you like Florida, would you
recommend taking regulation or does that come with its own
land minds that the game could very easily go to overtime,
Florida win and you lose a bet.
Speaker 4 (05:38):
You know, Caren, this is a very interesting game. So
I'm not going to answer your question specifically. Well, the
answer is, if I like Florida, there have no choice
but to take them in regulation. There is absolutely no
way I'm going to would bet them at minus two
thirty five. But let me tell you why Toronto is
the better bet here, and then I will give you
(06:00):
an even better bet. Toronto's the bet here because you're
getting plus one ninety plus two hundred. That means Toronto
needs to win one out of three times they're in
the spot. There's no reason to think Toronto can't come
into this game and win it. Outright. I understand Florida
is a really good hockey team. I get it. But
(06:20):
I'll tell you a couple of things. Number One, Toronto
won the first two against Ottawa and played in a
game where they were supposed to take a breath, calm down,
and have you know, Ottawa win and go and go
up to one. Instead, they played the best game of
their entire series, Game three, and they beat Ottawa. It
(06:43):
was not there. Actually the next game was. But the
point I'm making is they already have gone up three nothing.
They understand the importance of this game. They know that
if Florida wins this game, it puts an incredible amount
of pressure on them in the next game. Do I
think Florida is gonna come out playing their best game
of the season tonight? Yes? Do I think Florida should
(07:04):
be favored? Absolutely? Do I think Florida has a more
than fifty percent chance of winning. Hell's to the YEAHT
do I think Florida has a sixty eight percent chance
of winning this game. Hell's to the No, How cool?
Am I I've lit right now? The value is on
the Leafs here. If I'm looking to play Florida, I'm
taking them. In the first period, the Leafs are showing moxie.
(07:27):
They are jumping back every time Florida scored, the Leafs ansored.
Same thing happened in the Ottawa series. This is a
different leaf team. The line is way way way too high,
way too high, tons of values.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
I think this line is what it is, and it's
indicative of just what the price was like for them
when they were on the road the Panthers. Like, I
agree with you. I think it's a whack line. Like
you know, I had a bet on the Panthers in
the last game, but I think that they felt no choice.
They had no choice because of the price. I mean,
if you're going to be laying giving us that number
on the Panthers on the road, what's the number going
(08:07):
to be at home? And I think that the oddsmakers
did a poor job in the first two games of
pricing it, but now there's no choice heading back at
home for what they're going to list this number. I mean,
how much of an adjustment are they going to make
from games one, two to three? And obviously this is
just simply home ice advantage.
Speaker 4 (08:23):
Being a cat, I'm not Andrew. We're talking about minus one.
If it was minus one seventy, I agree with everything
you're saying. Yeah, it's minus two forty at some books.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
No, but it was minus one seventy in Toronto, That's
what I'm saying. So they had to adjust it for
home ice. That's what I'm saying they made. The mistake
was made in the early part of the series, not
now they the mistake was made on the road.
Speaker 4 (08:53):
No, No, Andrew, because what you're not factoring in is
that this line was minus one ninety. It's the people
that bet us to two minus two forty. The bookmakers
did not add an extra fifty cents to this line
because they're stupid. The public and the wise and the
smart action bet this line to two forty, and frankly,
(09:17):
they are nuts. And again, I think Florida has a
more than fifty percent chance of winning this game.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
Flat out, I might I might need Dan the Odds
Logic page for me Oddslogic dot com and Dan, if
you got it, let's pull it up. Opening numbers for
Game three according to Odds Logic minus two twenty five.
Speaker 4 (09:40):
Okay, well, then everybody is wrong.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
That's what I'm saying anyway, So.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
I'll chime in, Uh, well, we're talking about this, you know.
I think some of it has to do with as
far as the line in the public betting on Florida.
Now they're at home. You take the line, well, they
can't go down three nothing in the series, and they
can you know, take care of business on home ice,
win their two games, send it back to Toronto, turning
(10:09):
into a three game series, or even use the use
the the train of thought that historically this is where
the Leafs get knocked out in the second round of
a series. But again, as we mentioned at the top
of the show, press, it hasn't since nineteen eighty seven.
And yes, that series didn't go well for them, but
(10:30):
they got up to nothing. You and I had this discussion,
and and Andreia, I'm gonna bring you in for this
one because I want your thoughts on this. President. I
talked on the phone about this this leaf series, and
we have differing views. He doesn't like what happened to
stole arts, and I get it. Wait he wants he
(10:51):
wants some retribute.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
True.
Speaker 3 (10:54):
Wait wait, yes, some of it is true. I take
the I look at this way. Florida is throwing everything
at the Leafs, trying to go the Leafs into playing
a game in which you're not playing. The Leafs are
playing the perfect style of NHL hockey, playoff hockey. Go
out there, score some goals, respond when you need to respond,
(11:18):
and stay out of the penalty box. Don't get into
these skirmishes. Don't wake up the sleeping bear. Don't wake
it up. And this is what the Leafs have to do.
Do not wake up Florida by trying to take out
one of their players by getting into fights. You can't
do that. Just do what you're doing. Win games and
(11:38):
you and you will win this series. Thoughts on this
Andrew before pres jumps.
Speaker 4 (11:43):
In, yeah, go ahead and make me before Press jumps in, Well.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
I think ultimately, guys, you got to stick to yourself.
You got to stick to who you are. Did the
did the Leafs? You know it's toughen up a little
and make some plays and be physical and and kind
of say hey, we're going to stick together. Absolutely, But
at the end of the Maple Leaps have looked like
who they are in the regular season in the playoffs,
and that's a good thing because a lot of times
they look like a different team. They have managed to
(12:09):
not well, they've managed to not look different under the lights,
like William Nielander has separated himself from the pack the
past few years of being the guy that doesn't care
what time of year it is, he's the same player.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
But I think we've seen a lot of that from
a lot of the different players on the team.
Speaker 2 (12:24):
And the biggest compliment we can give to the Leaps
because everybody keeps on saying this team has changed, they're different,
they're different, which I agree with. But obviously the core
four is playing well. But in years past, and I
think during the regular season this year, the Leafs had
one of the lowest number of points from defenseman. Every
game they seem to be getting something from a defenseman
(12:45):
and assist and a goal whatever it may be. In
years past, they didn't really have a guy like Max Paciretti,
that old veteran that's like on a cheap contract, scoring
big goals, a depth bottom six guy. That's kind of
what they need is some different players, different characters stepping up.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (13:03):
One thing I'm gonna say, and Carl, I'll go back
to you. Then we can get final thoughts from Pres
and some picks on this game. But look, I lost
that game. I'm not bitching because that's how hockey works.
But expected goals all situations three point seven to eight
to two point one, as far as the five on
five numbers two point seven to seven to one point
one five. The Maple Leafs of years past would dominate
(13:28):
XG and lose those games. Now, even in games that
they probably got outplayed analytically, they're.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
Finding ways to win.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
So to PRES's point, they could go out there and
play their best game tonight and then win tonight. I
mean against Ottawa. There were some games that I was like,
this game's pretty tight, maybe the Leafs aren't gonna win,
and they find a way. And I was just doing
a show a few minutes ago talking about the first
period of that last game, Game two, where the Maple
Leafs were down one nothing until three minutes to go
(13:56):
in the first period, and then they tie it up,
and the difference I in going to the locker room
down one nothing versus tied one to one in the
postseason is huge. So carm I'll just say this my
quick thoughts on the series and then are the game.
If you like Florida tonight, you take the series price
And we just saw it on Odds Logic on the Paige.
Speaker 4 (14:16):
Damn, that's a nice that's a good thought.
Speaker 2 (14:22):
Yeah, it if you like them, you take the series
because the number is so heavily juiced. And I also
think if you like Florida tonight, you take that first
period play because the number is minus two thirty five.
The first period three way line is plus one fourteen.
So that's how you're going to find the best value.
And at this point, I don't think the Panthers are
(14:43):
going to win a game unless they win the first period.
They need to go into the dressing room after the
first period feeling good about themselves. So carm any thoughts
on that stuff. I think plus one eighty five is
the number now on this Panthers team for the series.
We know how much it'll change if they win tonight.
How do you attack Game three?
Speaker 3 (15:03):
You know, Andrew I might just go back to my
regular season twenty minutes and done the type of formula
and take that first period over with these ones, because
I didn't expect the first two games of this series
to be as high scoring as they are, and I
don't think that the venue switch the Florida is going
to change much of it. We always talked about the
(15:27):
fact that if you need to get back to winning,
you need to play defense. But that's but the Leaves
are finding ways to score against Florida, and that's an
Ombrabrovski and Brosky's been absolutely solid and the Leaves are
Leaves are solved in him and they're getting goals. Florida's
is trying to match the Leaf's goal for goal, and
(15:49):
it is something that is not working for them right now.
You know, I don't think the Leaves are coming to Florida.
I don't think Craig Baruba is going to say, all right,
what we did in games one and two, let's throw
out the door and try and reinvent a new game
plan for games three and four where we just play
defense and bunker down. No, he's not gonna do that.
(16:09):
He's the right coach for them. This season. He's got
them playing a different style of hockey in the playoffs
and thus smart it's been very successful for them. The
fact that it's Joseph Walling goal and not stole arts
may help with that first period over. Even though Wall
did play well in the last game. I'm taking that
(16:30):
first period over in this one, Prez.
Speaker 4 (16:33):
I don't have a problem with that, carm. I think
we're gonna see a Florida come out firing. I think
we're gonna get Florida's best period, and I think you
have three opportunities to go over. You got the Leafs
can score too, Florida can score two, and the Leafs
in Florida can eat score one. So sounds like a
decent bet to me, brother, that's for sure, guys, real quick,
(16:55):
if I can just jump in for a second year,
you know, mind, I have a five percent play up
tonight in NHL, guys, car Mines, NHL has been so
sick by the way, Karm, congratulations on the run of
the year, literally the run of the year. I'm also
doing really great in the NHL, guys. To give you
perspective of where I'm at, I am thirteen and six
(17:19):
in the playoffs. I'm on a three and oh run,
twenty eight and a three and oh run, a fifteen
and six run, a twenty eight and fourteen run. I'm
the number one most profitable expert in hockey since the
start of the season two right now, and I have
a five percent play up tonight, seven and one in
(17:41):
five percent plays seven and one all season in these
NHL five percent plays, and I have a promo three
of them, I want to give out real quick seven
day all access my baseball and my basketball. My baseball
is up double digit profits. My basketball is insane winning.
(18:02):
I'm winning almost every night all sixty nine a l
L sixty nine the rest of my NHL season for
only ninety nine dollars, Pres ninety nine. My five percent
is thirty five bucks. Tonight, guys, thirty five dollars. You
get my entire NHL season, the whole playoffs, everything, all
(18:24):
the way to the end, for ninety nine bucks. Pres
ninety nine. Let's go head over to Wage to talk
join us. Come on, let's go Pres ninety nine. Okay,
I'm done. Thank you for allowing me that time, boys, Pres.
Speaker 1 (18:38):
Best of luck, man, good luck tonight. I'll be cheering
for you for sure.
Speaker 3 (18:42):
Did we get did we get a pick on a
press for this game before the game before?
Speaker 1 (18:47):
Yes?
Speaker 4 (18:48):
Least I think the value is on the leafs, brother.
Speaker 3 (18:50):
Look all right, value just making sure. Yeah, you know,
those older guys forget things a little quicker. Winnipeg Jay
and the Dallas Stars. And I spoke to you about
this one, and Andrew offline that game one three to
two third period, no goals in that one. But the
(19:14):
analytics were right down the middle, absolutely even for that game,
and they pretty much matched what happened on the ice
two point seven five to two point seven to seven
where they expected goals in that game, finishes three to two,
high danger chances, scoring chances, everything pretty much matched what
(19:35):
happened on the ice, but the Dallas Stars got the
better of them. Andrew, can they even it up the
Winnipeg Jets? Can they? Can they keep with this Canadian
theme of Canadian teams winning second round games alive?
Speaker 1 (19:54):
Well, Karm.
Speaker 2 (19:55):
The problem I have with what we saw in the
last game and the winnipe Jets losing is that that's
the kind of game that they probably need to win.
Speaker 1 (20:05):
You know, they didn't look great by any means.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
They didn't really play their best hockey by any means,
and they still kept at a close game. But I
think there's a clear, clear, clear cut correlated parlay with
under and Winnipeg over with Dallas here, and so the
fact that Dallas won one of the under games that
really hurts Winnipeg. And when I say that, I give
credit to Jake Ottinger. I mean I think personally he
(20:29):
should probably be the starter for Team USA at the
Olympics next year because he's proven to be a better
big game player than Hellibuck. And maybe it's no overreaction,
who knows, but I think that it's a clear cut
correlation between the under on the Jets and the over
with the Stars moving forward as far as this series
is concerned.
Speaker 1 (20:49):
So you know what I always do, Karen.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
If I like the under in a game, if I
like the under for a team, I like to look
at the team total under. And that's what I'm gonna
do with the Dallas plus one oh five under two
and a half goals. You take a look at this number,
you take a look at the price here minus one
thirty five on the Winnipeg Jets. So I'm getting plus
one oh five on the Jets to keep the Stars
(21:13):
at less than three goals, and I think that if
they get to three or more, they beat Winnipeg. So
I'll take that plus money, we'll manage the bank roll properly,
and plus one oh five. Dallas team total under two
and a half goals. A lot of firepower on that team.
But Winnipeg needs to park the bus, play defense and
protect their own end of the ice. So that's my
play in this game. And I'm hoping for defense here
(21:36):
in this one, Prez, would you agree with me that
it's kind of correlated here Winnipeg keeps it under.
Speaker 4 (21:42):
Well, it's not like Dallas isn't an under team. Yeah,
anytime you're picking Winnipeg gets collated to the under, but
anytime you're picking Dallas, it's collated to the under as well.
And to give you perspective on the season, Winnipeg thirty
nine forty eight and three including the playoffs to the under,
Dallas thirty eight forty five and seven to the under.
(22:06):
But let me tell you the real reason we must
play the under, because for some reason, when these two
teams play against each other, all it is is unders.
It's nine in a row. Nine unders in a row,
that's correct. And every one of those nine unders went
(22:30):
under five and a half. Even though there were six
is in a few of them, they all went under
five and a half. This last game was the first
game in seven games where one of the two teams
scored more than one goal. Prior to that, it was
(22:51):
four nothing, four to one, three to one, four one,
three nothing, four to one and two nothing. We don't
stare trends like this directly into the face and blank.
We stare trends like this directly in the face and say,
thank you, sir, I'll have another. The under is the
only play here, guys. And that's where we're going. OK,
(23:19):
A little bit dramatic there. I felt like I was
a bit dramatic.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
I had to lead it.
Speaker 3 (23:24):
I was like, WHOA, let me ask you this, guys.
You know, I'm hoping Winnipeg wins tonight. I want to
see more games in a longer series. And I think
the big thing and the big miss for the Winnipeg
Jets Jets is Josh Morrisey. We saw their power play.
(23:45):
It just couldn't click against the Dallas Stars, and Morrissey
is their QB on the power play. When that guy's out,
it hurts. It's we would be similar to Cale mccarr
missing for the for the Colorado Avalanche. You need that
guy who fuels that power play from the point. So
(24:08):
hopefully there's no news. I haven't seen any news on
Morcy as if yet. If you guys have, please drop
it in the comment section below. And I will say
this before I pose the question to both of you
guys on the show is, Guys, if you're watching this
on YouTube, do us a favor. Hit that like button.
Let us know that you enjoy the show, whether you're
(24:28):
watching it live or whether you're watching it later on.
And if you're watching on one of the social channels
like Instagram or on the X, hit that heart button.
Drop a comment in the comment section. We try and
answer as many as we can, whether it's during the
live show or afterwards. We really appreciate you, guys and
it helps our analytics. Now I'm going to say this
(24:49):
pres Andrew. You guys can go in any order that
you want. Maybe we've missed the boat on this price,
but if you like the Dallas Stars the way they're
playing right now, and you think they're going to win
this series, and then make a run to the Stanley Cup.
Do you take Nico Ranton in to win the cons
my trophy? Back to back hat tricks for this guy.
He is co favorite right now with Connor McDavid at
(25:12):
plus five fifty, you're asking me or Andrew either one
of you guys.
Speaker 4 (25:19):
Okay, well Andrew, let's answer at the same time, right
three Carmine.
Speaker 1 (25:27):
Well, President, you don't usually I know the President, Betty.
Speaker 2 (25:32):
I'm interested in your thoughts press because I know you're
not really someone that takes look at these.
Speaker 1 (25:36):
So here's the thing.
Speaker 4 (25:37):
You've been what I Here's what I can assure you.
Connor Hellibuck will not win the con That's true.
Speaker 3 (25:46):
Present pres is logging into Bett will Willie Knelander at
fifteen to one plus fifteen hundred.
Speaker 2 (25:52):
That's what I was going to say that that's where
the value is. One hundred and ten percent is on
William Leelander. But again, and I think that, Look, the
Leafs are looking really good to win the series right now,
but I think we all know it's not gonna be
a sweep. If it's a sweep, it's gonna be insane.
So if you see the Panthers win tonight I would.
(26:14):
I'm literally gonna do whatever I'm stop whatever I'm doing,
and I'm gonna bet on William Lelondard to win the
cons my Trophy, because everybody that's on the Leafs right
now to win the Stanley Cup could just get an
exponentially better price on William Elander. And you think last
year the player on a losing team won it. Connor
(26:34):
McDavid won the cons myth and you know Miko Ranton
And the only thing is KRM is that the only
guy that could take it from him would be Attinger.
But the thing is they can score goals too, so
I don't think he'd win it the end of the day. Guys,
when it comes down to it, it's kind of like betting,
uh the Super super Bowl MVP. You need to be
looking at better odds. Can you get this guy to
win the MVP in the Big Game? Or what are
(26:56):
the odds on this team to win win the whole thing?
And I think that's the thing you're trying to set
yourself up for success. Look across the board right now,
look at some of these teams overall and try and
figure it out. Like if you're looking at Carolina, you're
looking at Sebastian Ajo, if you're looking at the Washington Capitals. Hey,
I mean it's a little bit of a mixed bag.
(27:17):
You could honestly argue Dylan Strom right now, Carl. My
answer is I would say yes, just based on the
fact that it's a better number on both those players
than their teams. But at the end of the day,
I think we're gonna get an even better number if
that both those teams lose tonight. So yeah, maybe we're
betting the stock at the highest point. If we bet Ranton,
then right, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (27:38):
I agree with you if you look at the odds,
If you look at the odds and they're going to change,
I think we're at the low point of taking them
at like a plus five fifty. Because you look at
it's Connor McDavid, Miko Ranton and one is up one
nothing in the series and now has a home iice advantage.
One is up to nothing in the series. You look
at the Leaf players, same thing. Uh, they're up to
(28:01):
nothing in the series. You get a better indication of
what the true odds probably should be around Game four
if these series are tied at two two, because it's
it's open to whether they even make it that far.
At two two plus five fifty is way too low
in this spot for even Connor McDavid and Miko Ranton
(28:24):
in Pretz, I'm throwing in a few arms. A guy
commented yesterday later on after the videos posted, that I
say too many times. I responded with, I'm sorry that
doing six months of neuro rehab when I had a
brain injury, that I disappointed you with too many ums.
(28:45):
So he said we should use a disclaimer. So Dan,
if you can run on the bottom there, please excuse
Carmine for too many ums. He suffered a brain injury.
That would be great. It's a great disclaim to have
on the show. I want it. I want to pres
this is the perfect question for you because I know
(29:07):
what the answer you're gonna have. There's a guy in
our life chat, and I you know, I feel for
guys like this. Sergeant Pepper's Lonely Hearts is the name,
and he's like, I wish I'd just stayed a fan. No, listen,
I wish I'd just stayed a fan of my hockey teams.
Because he liked both hockey games yesterday, and he liked
both Dad's the best with the disclaimer. He liked both
(29:32):
hockey games yesterday, but the need for money caused them
to make a fourteen parlay with a couple of baseball bets,
and the baseball bets are the ones that ended up
mushing him. It's not a fourteen parlays aren't the way
to build your bankroll. But Lawrence, you can understand, not
from your point of view, but you can understand being
in this industry for so long, people do try and
(29:54):
build their bankrolls through these big ass parlays and it
doesn't work.
Speaker 4 (29:59):
Of course it doesn't work. Oh yeah, So just for
the record, who is that person? What's his name?
Speaker 3 (30:06):
Sergeon Pepper's.
Speaker 4 (30:07):
Yeah, mister Pepper, it was not the baseball that lost
you the parlay. It was the parlay that lost you
the parlay. We were playing poker on Sunday. A guy
at the table at a fourteen teen parlay missed it
(30:29):
by one. He was so mad at that one miss.
He was like, I can't remember the team whatever, the Cobs,
damn Cobbs, stupid cobs, idiot cobs fourteen teams. You're blaming
the cops anyway, mister Pepper, work cheering for you. Stick
(30:50):
to betting my NHL plays and all will be good
and there's no need to do a parlay with them.
And I even have a promo for you, mister Pepper,
NHL ninety nine. Thank you for allowing me to do
this again. NHL ninety nine. Rest of my NHL playout
ninety nine bucks. Guys, this was a blast.
Speaker 3 (31:15):
I do want to say, venturing away, it's still betting
related Andrew, but congratulations we have a new pope. Robert. Oh, yes,
we voast the fourteenth. Do you know that Lawrence his
odds were forty nine to one to win to win
(31:39):
the election.
Speaker 4 (31:40):
As what happened, I want to go into the room
the conclave.
Speaker 1 (31:46):
I saw like one hundred to one at some spots
the Conclave.
Speaker 3 (31:51):
Action Network had forty nine to one. What happened was
because the vote and because it ended so quickly five
votes I believe it was, and only two days everyone assumed.
Everyone assumed that one of the top guys like Paolo
I think it's Paulo or Piero Paoueline was to win
(32:14):
the secretary. So those odds everyone was betting, I mean
the polymarkets at plus two fifty plus one eighty. They
all assume it was him, So the odds on everyone
else rose so Andrew. Maybe he was in the polymarkets
plus one hundred plus one hundred thousand, but one hundred
to one, it does make sense, but forty nine to
(32:36):
one in the Action Network.
Speaker 4 (32:37):
I just realized why he won. And I'm so stupid
for not making the bet. If anybody won other than
an American, and they would have to pay extra money
when they go to America under the religious tariffs that
mister Trump is setting up.
Speaker 3 (32:54):
Oh god, that's the reason.
Speaker 4 (32:57):
There you go. Just for the record, and I did
not state whether those tariffs are good or bad. That
statement does not reflect any thoughts by the owners of
wager Talk, nor the Puck Time talent or Dan Alexander.
This has been a fun show, boys. I'm I'm on
(33:17):
wager Talk today today, I am on that. I'm a guess.
Speaker 2 (33:22):
I'm no way, yeah, no way. All right, we gotta
put a bow on this show. We got to wrap
it up.
Speaker 1 (33:28):
Uh disclaimer, who knows left press cook?
Speaker 2 (33:32):
All right, guys, it's NHL season, but playoff season at
least right now. But baseball's going well for me five
and one of my last six baseball plays and we're
doing the same process, same thing we did with the NHL.
The team totals are the way to go. My average
price in MLB so far minus one oh five. We
(33:52):
are betting good prices, betting good numbers. We already smacked
a five percent play this season in baseball, looking forward
to a really good one this year.
Speaker 1 (34:00):
At wager Talk.
Speaker 2 (34:01):
Out of thirty seven handicappers, I'm number five at the website.
We've earned over forty five units across all sports twenty
twenty five.
Speaker 1 (34:10):
Really really looking forward to the future.
Speaker 2 (34:12):
So guys, good time to be grabbing a seven day,
thirty day or even an all access pass for the summer.
So I got a baseball four percent best bet for tonight,
and we will of course be involved in NHL action.
So hey, not really that many big streaks for me lately,
but really been managing the Baker bankroll properly. Out of
that many handicappers, all these guys I respect so much.
(34:33):
At wager Talk thirty seven cappers, we're top five, so
I'm feeling pretty good about it. You guys can get
all my plays wt dapplas slash am back to you,
carme to close it out.
Speaker 3 (34:45):
So callably nothing. A couple of couple of small plays
maybe in the NHL tonight are the ones they discussed
on the show, and maybe an afternoon soccer play, but
a big weekend coming up for me as far as
European soccer. I'm going to give you guys a little
heads up on a play on Sunday that I do like.
(35:08):
This is in the Premier League. West Ham is plus
to eighty eight at Old Trafford against Manchester United. So
I know this is the Hockey Show, but I'm giving
you a plus to eighty eight and I don't think
that line tomorrow will be around. Because Man United played
on Thursday. They qualified for the Europa League Final, whe
(35:29):
they'll play Tottenham in Spain at the Athletic Bilbao Stadium.
They are likely going to rest all of their starters
or a majority of their starters. They could very well
start a youth team because this game has zero importance
to them. Being healthy and having all of their players
available on the twenty first of May in that final
(35:52):
is what's important to them because the winner of the
Europa League gets into the next year's Champions League, and
it's a team that's sitting fifteenth or sixteenth in the
right now. They're not getting relegated, they're not getting a
European spot. Their route to the Champions League is winning.
On the twenty first. Amarin the manager of a Man United,
(36:13):
He's likely going to come out with a lineup tomorrow
or there's gonna be some discussion. And if you see
that line dropping, and use the odds logic, if you
see that line dropping the plus two eighty eight goes down,
it means that there is some news coming out that
a lot of the starters will sit. I've already released
that one to clients, so I'm just giving you a
heads up that that could be a very good play
(36:34):
at plus two eighty eight. So that's it, guys, for myself,
the pres Andrew mckinnis, and our award winning producer Dan Alexander.
This is puck Time. Best of luck, you guys, have
a safe and profitable weekend, and we will see you
on Monday.
Happy Friday, guys.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
We are live on Puck Time talking Maple Leafs, Panthers,
Jets and the Stars.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Here.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
It's Friday, it's May ninth, and we are ready to
rock and roll. Do a lot of these two man
shows lately, but not today. Myself Andrew Carmine and Press
ready to break things down and go over some game sides, totals, props,
team totals, you name it. Shout out to all of
you guys right here in the live chat and all
of you guys that tune in afterwards.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
We appreciate every single one of you. Carm Good morning
to you, my friend. How are you? How is your
night last night?
Speaker 2 (00:34):
And any thoughts on this Panthers Leafs game being called
the biggest game for the Leafs and years.
Speaker 3 (00:44):
Well, my nights. It started great my day, a couple
four percent winners in Europa, plus four percent winners in
the semifinals, and then I thought, well, okay, I'm gonna
steamroll right into a win by the Canes that did
not happen the Washington with one apologies on that play.
Then I wake up to news that there's like a
(01:05):
frost warning up north in Toronto and it's got to
because the Leaves are up to nothing in their series.
Andrew that we're getting possible snow in May. Unbelievable, but
we got the press dialed in today. He's psyched to
talk about this Leafs of Florida one Edmonton Oiders and
(01:25):
the Toronto may Beliefs, both up to nothing in their
series and both in a series in which they were
decided underdog. So it's going to be an interesting playoffs.
It's definitely an interesting second round of the playoffs. Now
we're going to touch on, of course, the other Canadian team,
the Winnipeg Jets, taking on the Dallas Stars, looking to
see if they can use that white out in Winnipeg
(01:49):
to even that series up at one. Pres Welcome to
the show, my friend. You must be hyped about tonight's game.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
I am, I am. I'm just typing to Kelly. Oh
my god, Okay, I'm done. How can I not be
hyped about tonight's game, karm. It's the biggest game in
the history of the world. I mean, there's nobody, no,
come on, dude, we're up to nothing. Of course, every
game now is important that we win the third game.
(02:21):
The fourth game is gonna be the biggest game ever.
The Leaves are in uncharted territory. What can I tell you?
But yeah, I'm excited about it. Listen, I'm I'm a
I'm a jaded leaf fan. The way I think tonight's
gonna go. The Leafs go up five nothing, seventy two
(02:42):
seconds to go, they lose seven to five.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
You know, the last time they're up to Andrew, the
last time the Leafs were up nineteen eight, nineteen to seven,
I had hair Andrew back. Then. If the lead they
lost the series, they lost.
Speaker 4 (03:00):
That's the series.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
But if the Leaves go on and play in the
Standy Cup, I'm gonna grow my hair back, all three
of them. I'm gonna and I'll just curl them like
Homer Simpson does with his but prayers. I'm just gonna
throw it right back to you. Let's talk about this
Leafs game and give us your take on it.
Speaker 4 (03:18):
Yeah, before we do that, car, I just want to
say to everybody, look the blue Line, we're having a
little bit of issues right now. There's a six week
corridor where Matthew donates his time to a bunch of
charity hockey events, most of them are for Alzheimer's what
was I saying? Kidding? Come on, you didn't get that
(03:43):
joke anyway. Anyway, anyway, we're the show's not going anywhere.
We're gonna be back. There's no one pm today, Matthew.
The game time for his charity event is one, I
mean an eight fifteen at eleven and one fifteen. We
couldn't get it through. We'll be back on Monday. Our
(04:06):
sincere apologies Andrew, Dan and Carb shout out to the
three of you. What a quick adjustment. We found this
out fifteen minutes before puck time begun and we put
puck time together that quickly. That's how professional.
Speaker 1 (04:19):
Duet me is.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
I just found out. My afternoon opened up. What do
you mean, I'm thankful for you. My afternoon just open.
I might go I'm not going to play nine holes now.
I mean, I'm laughing.
Speaker 4 (04:30):
I'm doing I'm doing eighteen bench.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
I feel the oldest of this group. I think I
actually am you are you are on my way? I
was on my way out the door because I have
a doc's appointment. I was on my way out the
door because there was supposed to be no puck time
today at eleven. Yeah, but I did in a boat
Face came back in and wanted to do this show.
I didn't want any anybody to think I actually turtled
(04:55):
because I lost play last night in the NHL. We're
gonna lose them atself point. It's still been a good,
very solid forty five days past forty five days of NHL,
so we'll keep on plugging away. But pres this is
one of those ones where the price is so high
on Florida. The initial price that came out was minus
two twenty. The minute the game two was over, the
(05:19):
price came out of two twenty on Florida. If you
like Florida, would you recommend I'm just saying it to
you as a capper, If you like Florida, would you
recommend taking regulation or does that come with its own
land minds that the game could very easily go to overtime,
Florida win and you lose a bet.
Speaker 4 (05:38):
You know, Caren, this is a very interesting game. So
I'm not going to answer your question specifically. Well, the
answer is, if I like Florida, there have no choice
but to take them in regulation. There is absolutely no
way I'm going to would bet them at minus two
thirty five. But let me tell you why Toronto is
the better bet here, and then I will give you
(06:00):
an even better bet. Toronto's the bet here because you're
getting plus one ninety plus two hundred. That means Toronto
needs to win one out of three times they're in
the spot. There's no reason to think Toronto can't come
into this game and win it. Outright. I understand Florida
is a really good hockey team. I get it. But
(06:20):
I'll tell you a couple of things. Number One, Toronto
won the first two against Ottawa and played in a
game where they were supposed to take a breath, calm down,
and have you know, Ottawa win and go and go
up to one. Instead, they played the best game of
their entire series, Game three, and they beat Ottawa. It
(06:43):
was not there. Actually the next game was. But the
point I'm making is they already have gone up three nothing.
They understand the importance of this game. They know that
if Florida wins this game, it puts an incredible amount
of pressure on them in the next game. Do I
think Florida is gonna come out playing their best game
of the season tonight? Yes? Do I think Florida should
(07:04):
be favored? Absolutely? Do I think Florida has a more
than fifty percent chance of winning. Hell's to the YEAHT
do I think Florida has a sixty eight percent chance
of winning this game. Hell's to the No, How cool?
Am I I've lit right now? The value is on
the Leafs here. If I'm looking to play Florida, I'm
taking them. In the first period, the Leafs are showing moxie.
(07:27):
They are jumping back every time Florida scored, the Leafs ansored.
Same thing happened in the Ottawa series. This is a
different leaf team. The line is way way way too high,
way too high, tons of values.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
I think this line is what it is, and it's
indicative of just what the price was like for them
when they were on the road the Panthers. Like, I
agree with you. I think it's a whack line. Like
you know, I had a bet on the Panthers in
the last game, but I think that they felt no choice.
They had no choice because of the price. I mean,
if you're going to be laying giving us that number
on the Panthers on the road, what's the number going
(08:07):
to be at home? And I think that the oddsmakers
did a poor job in the first two games of
pricing it, but now there's no choice heading back at
home for what they're going to list this number. I mean,
how much of an adjustment are they going to make
from games one, two to three? And obviously this is
just simply home ice advantage.
Speaker 4 (08:23):
Being a cat, I'm not Andrew. We're talking about minus one.
If it was minus one seventy, I agree with everything
you're saying. Yeah, it's minus two forty at some books.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
No, but it was minus one seventy in Toronto, That's
what I'm saying. So they had to adjust it for
home ice. That's what I'm saying they made. The mistake
was made in the early part of the series, not
now they the mistake was made on the road.
Speaker 4 (08:53):
No, No, Andrew, because what you're not factoring in is
that this line was minus one ninety. It's the people
that bet us to two minus two forty. The bookmakers
did not add an extra fifty cents to this line
because they're stupid. The public and the wise and the
smart action bet this line to two forty, and frankly,
(09:17):
they are nuts. And again, I think Florida has a
more than fifty percent chance of winning this game.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
Flat out, I might I might need Dan the Odds
Logic page for me Oddslogic dot com and Dan, if
you got it, let's pull it up. Opening numbers for
Game three according to Odds Logic minus two twenty five.
Speaker 4 (09:40):
Okay, well, then everybody is wrong.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
That's what I'm saying anyway, So.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
I'll chime in, Uh, well, we're talking about this, you know.
I think some of it has to do with as
far as the line in the public betting on Florida.
Now they're at home. You take the line, well, they
can't go down three nothing in the series, and they
can you know, take care of business on home ice,
win their two games, send it back to Toronto, turning
(10:09):
into a three game series, or even use the use
the the train of thought that historically this is where
the Leafs get knocked out in the second round of
a series. But again, as we mentioned at the top
of the show, press, it hasn't since nineteen eighty seven.
And yes, that series didn't go well for them, but
(10:30):
they got up to nothing. You and I had this discussion,
and and Andreia, I'm gonna bring you in for this
one because I want your thoughts on this. President. I
talked on the phone about this this leaf series, and
we have differing views. He doesn't like what happened to
stole arts, and I get it. Wait he wants he
(10:51):
wants some retribute.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
True.
Speaker 3 (10:54):
Wait wait, yes, some of it is true. I take
the I look at this way. Florida is throwing everything
at the Leafs, trying to go the Leafs into playing
a game in which you're not playing. The Leafs are
playing the perfect style of NHL hockey, playoff hockey. Go
out there, score some goals, respond when you need to respond,
(11:18):
and stay out of the penalty box. Don't get into
these skirmishes. Don't wake up the sleeping bear. Don't wake
it up. And this is what the Leafs have to do.
Do not wake up Florida by trying to take out
one of their players by getting into fights. You can't
do that. Just do what you're doing. Win games and
(11:38):
you and you will win this series. Thoughts on this
Andrew before pres jumps.
Speaker 4 (11:43):
In, yeah, go ahead and make me before Press jumps in, Well.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
I think ultimately, guys, you got to stick to yourself.
You got to stick to who you are. Did the
did the Leafs? You know it's toughen up a little
and make some plays and be physical and and kind
of say hey, we're going to stick together. Absolutely, But
at the end of the Maple Leaps have looked like
who they are in the regular season in the playoffs,
and that's a good thing because a lot of times
they look like a different team. They have managed to
(12:09):
not well, they've managed to not look different under the lights,
like William Nielander has separated himself from the pack the
past few years of being the guy that doesn't care
what time of year it is, he's the same player.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
But I think we've seen a lot of that from
a lot of the different players on the team.
Speaker 2 (12:24):
And the biggest compliment we can give to the Leaps
because everybody keeps on saying this team has changed, they're different,
they're different, which I agree with. But obviously the core
four is playing well. But in years past, and I
think during the regular season this year, the Leafs had
one of the lowest number of points from defenseman. Every
game they seem to be getting something from a defenseman
(12:45):
and assist and a goal whatever it may be. In
years past, they didn't really have a guy like Max Paciretti,
that old veteran that's like on a cheap contract, scoring
big goals, a depth bottom six guy. That's kind of
what they need is some different players, different characters stepping up.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (13:03):
One thing I'm gonna say, and Carl, I'll go back
to you. Then we can get final thoughts from Pres
and some picks on this game. But look, I lost
that game. I'm not bitching because that's how hockey works.
But expected goals all situations three point seven to eight
to two point one, as far as the five on
five numbers two point seven to seven to one point
one five. The Maple Leafs of years past would dominate
(13:28):
XG and lose those games. Now, even in games that
they probably got outplayed analytically, they're.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
Finding ways to win.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
So to PRES's point, they could go out there and
play their best game tonight and then win tonight. I
mean against Ottawa. There were some games that I was like,
this game's pretty tight, maybe the Leafs aren't gonna win,
and they find a way. And I was just doing
a show a few minutes ago talking about the first
period of that last game, Game two, where the Maple
Leafs were down one nothing until three minutes to go
(13:56):
in the first period, and then they tie it up,
and the difference I in going to the locker room
down one nothing versus tied one to one in the
postseason is huge. So carm I'll just say this my
quick thoughts on the series and then are the game.
If you like Florida tonight, you take the series price
And we just saw it on Odds Logic on the Paige.
Speaker 4 (14:16):
Damn, that's a nice that's a good thought.
Speaker 2 (14:22):
Yeah, it if you like them, you take the series
because the number is so heavily juiced. And I also
think if you like Florida tonight, you take that first
period play because the number is minus two thirty five.
The first period three way line is plus one fourteen.
So that's how you're going to find the best value.
And at this point, I don't think the Panthers are
(14:43):
going to win a game unless they win the first period.
They need to go into the dressing room after the
first period feeling good about themselves. So carm any thoughts
on that stuff. I think plus one eighty five is
the number now on this Panthers team for the series.
We know how much it'll change if they win tonight.
How do you attack Game three?
Speaker 3 (15:03):
You know, Andrew I might just go back to my
regular season twenty minutes and done the type of formula
and take that first period over with these ones, because
I didn't expect the first two games of this series
to be as high scoring as they are, and I
don't think that the venue switch the Florida is going
to change much of it. We always talked about the
(15:27):
fact that if you need to get back to winning,
you need to play defense. But that's but the Leaves
are finding ways to score against Florida, and that's an
Ombrabrovski and Brosky's been absolutely solid and the Leaves are
Leaves are solved in him and they're getting goals. Florida's
is trying to match the Leaf's goal for goal, and
(15:49):
it is something that is not working for them right now.
You know, I don't think the Leaves are coming to Florida.
I don't think Craig Baruba is going to say, all right,
what we did in games one and two, let's throw
out the door and try and reinvent a new game
plan for games three and four where we just play
defense and bunker down. No, he's not gonna do that.
(16:09):
He's the right coach for them. This season. He's got
them playing a different style of hockey in the playoffs
and thus smart it's been very successful for them. The
fact that it's Joseph Walling goal and not stole arts
may help with that first period over. Even though Wall
did play well in the last game. I'm taking that
(16:30):
first period over in this one, Prez.
Speaker 4 (16:33):
I don't have a problem with that, carm. I think
we're gonna see a Florida come out firing. I think
we're gonna get Florida's best period, and I think you
have three opportunities to go over. You got the Leafs
can score too, Florida can score two, and the Leafs
in Florida can eat score one. So sounds like a
decent bet to me, brother, that's for sure, guys, real quick,
(16:55):
if I can just jump in for a second year,
you know, mind, I have a five percent play up
tonight in NHL, guys, car Mines, NHL has been so
sick by the way, Karm, congratulations on the run of
the year, literally the run of the year. I'm also
doing really great in the NHL, guys. To give you
perspective of where I'm at, I am thirteen and six
(17:19):
in the playoffs. I'm on a three and oh run,
twenty eight and a three and oh run, a fifteen
and six run, a twenty eight and fourteen run. I'm
the number one most profitable expert in hockey since the
start of the season two right now, and I have
a five percent play up tonight, seven and one in
(17:41):
five percent plays seven and one all season in these
NHL five percent plays, and I have a promo three
of them, I want to give out real quick seven
day all access my baseball and my basketball. My baseball
is up double digit profits. My basketball is insane winning.
(18:02):
I'm winning almost every night all sixty nine a l
L sixty nine the rest of my NHL season for
only ninety nine dollars, Pres ninety nine. My five percent
is thirty five bucks. Tonight, guys, thirty five dollars. You
get my entire NHL season, the whole playoffs, everything, all
(18:24):
the way to the end, for ninety nine bucks. Pres
ninety nine. Let's go head over to Wage to talk
join us. Come on, let's go Pres ninety nine. Okay,
I'm done. Thank you for allowing me that time, boys, Pres.
Speaker 1 (18:38):
Best of luck, man, good luck tonight. I'll be cheering
for you for sure.
Speaker 3 (18:42):
Did we get did we get a pick on a
press for this game before the game before?
Speaker 1 (18:47):
Yes?
Speaker 4 (18:48):
Least I think the value is on the leafs, brother.
Speaker 3 (18:50):
Look all right, value just making sure. Yeah, you know,
those older guys forget things a little quicker. Winnipeg Jay
and the Dallas Stars. And I spoke to you about
this one, and Andrew offline that game one three to
two third period, no goals in that one. But the
(19:14):
analytics were right down the middle, absolutely even for that game,
and they pretty much matched what happened on the ice
two point seven five to two point seven to seven
where they expected goals in that game, finishes three to two,
high danger chances, scoring chances, everything pretty much matched what
(19:35):
happened on the ice, but the Dallas Stars got the
better of them. Andrew, can they even it up the
Winnipeg Jets? Can they? Can they keep with this Canadian
theme of Canadian teams winning second round games alive?
Speaker 1 (19:54):
Well, Karm.
Speaker 2 (19:55):
The problem I have with what we saw in the
last game and the winnipe Jets losing is that that's
the kind of game that they probably need to win.
Speaker 1 (20:05):
You know, they didn't look great by any means.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
They didn't really play their best hockey by any means,
and they still kept at a close game. But I
think there's a clear, clear, clear cut correlated parlay with
under and Winnipeg over with Dallas here, and so the
fact that Dallas won one of the under games that
really hurts Winnipeg. And when I say that, I give
credit to Jake Ottinger. I mean I think personally he
(20:29):
should probably be the starter for Team USA at the
Olympics next year because he's proven to be a better
big game player than Hellibuck. And maybe it's no overreaction,
who knows, but I think that it's a clear cut
correlation between the under on the Jets and the over
with the Stars moving forward as far as this series
is concerned.
Speaker 1 (20:49):
So you know what I always do, Karen.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
If I like the under in a game, if I
like the under for a team, I like to look
at the team total under. And that's what I'm gonna
do with the Dallas plus one oh five under two
and a half goals. You take a look at this number,
you take a look at the price here minus one
thirty five on the Winnipeg Jets. So I'm getting plus
one oh five on the Jets to keep the Stars
(21:13):
at less than three goals, and I think that if
they get to three or more, they beat Winnipeg. So
I'll take that plus money, we'll manage the bank roll properly,
and plus one oh five. Dallas team total under two
and a half goals. A lot of firepower on that team.
But Winnipeg needs to park the bus, play defense and
protect their own end of the ice. So that's my
play in this game. And I'm hoping for defense here
(21:36):
in this one, Prez, would you agree with me that
it's kind of correlated here Winnipeg keeps it under.
Speaker 4 (21:42):
Well, it's not like Dallas isn't an under team. Yeah,
anytime you're picking Winnipeg gets collated to the under, but
anytime you're picking Dallas, it's collated to the under as well.
And to give you perspective on the season, Winnipeg thirty
nine forty eight and three including the playoffs to the under,
Dallas thirty eight forty five and seven to the under.
(22:06):
But let me tell you the real reason we must
play the under, because for some reason, when these two
teams play against each other, all it is is unders.
It's nine in a row. Nine unders in a row,
that's correct. And every one of those nine unders went
(22:30):
under five and a half. Even though there were six
is in a few of them, they all went under
five and a half. This last game was the first
game in seven games where one of the two teams
scored more than one goal. Prior to that, it was
(22:51):
four nothing, four to one, three to one, four one,
three nothing, four to one and two nothing. We don't
stare trends like this directly into the face and blank.
We stare trends like this directly in the face and say,
thank you, sir, I'll have another. The under is the
only play here, guys. And that's where we're going. OK,
(23:19):
A little bit dramatic there. I felt like I was
a bit dramatic.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
I had to lead it.
Speaker 3 (23:24):
I was like, WHOA, let me ask you this, guys.
You know, I'm hoping Winnipeg wins tonight. I want to
see more games in a longer series. And I think
the big thing and the big miss for the Winnipeg
Jets Jets is Josh Morrisey. We saw their power play.
(23:45):
It just couldn't click against the Dallas Stars, and Morrissey
is their QB on the power play. When that guy's out,
it hurts. It's we would be similar to Cale mccarr
missing for the for the Colorado Avalanche. You need that
guy who fuels that power play from the point. So
(24:08):
hopefully there's no news. I haven't seen any news on
Morcy as if yet. If you guys have, please drop
it in the comment section below. And I will say
this before I pose the question to both of you
guys on the show is, Guys, if you're watching this
on YouTube, do us a favor. Hit that like button.
Let us know that you enjoy the show, whether you're
(24:28):
watching it live or whether you're watching it later on.
And if you're watching on one of the social channels
like Instagram or on the X, hit that heart button.
Drop a comment in the comment section. We try and
answer as many as we can, whether it's during the
live show or afterwards. We really appreciate you, guys and
it helps our analytics. Now I'm going to say this
(24:49):
pres Andrew. You guys can go in any order that
you want. Maybe we've missed the boat on this price,
but if you like the Dallas Stars the way they're
playing right now, and you think they're going to win
this series, and then make a run to the Stanley Cup.
Do you take Nico Ranton in to win the cons
my trophy? Back to back hat tricks for this guy.
He is co favorite right now with Connor McDavid at
(25:12):
plus five fifty, you're asking me or Andrew either one
of you guys.
Speaker 4 (25:19):
Okay, well Andrew, let's answer at the same time, right
three Carmine.
Speaker 1 (25:27):
Well, President, you don't usually I know the President, Betty.
Speaker 2 (25:32):
I'm interested in your thoughts press because I know you're
not really someone that takes look at these.
Speaker 1 (25:36):
So here's the thing.
Speaker 4 (25:37):
You've been what I Here's what I can assure you.
Connor Hellibuck will not win the con That's true.
Speaker 3 (25:46):
Present pres is logging into Bett will Willie Knelander at
fifteen to one plus fifteen hundred.
Speaker 2 (25:52):
That's what I was going to say that that's where
the value is. One hundred and ten percent is on
William Leelander. But again, and I think that, Look, the
Leafs are looking really good to win the series right now,
but I think we all know it's not gonna be
a sweep. If it's a sweep, it's gonna be insane.
So if you see the Panthers win tonight I would.
(26:14):
I'm literally gonna do whatever I'm stop whatever I'm doing,
and I'm gonna bet on William Lelondard to win the
cons my Trophy, because everybody that's on the Leafs right
now to win the Stanley Cup could just get an
exponentially better price on William Elander. And you think last
year the player on a losing team won it. Connor
(26:34):
McDavid won the cons myth and you know Miko Ranton
And the only thing is KRM is that the only
guy that could take it from him would be Attinger.
But the thing is they can score goals too, so
I don't think he'd win it the end of the day. Guys,
when it comes down to it, it's kind of like betting,
uh the Super super Bowl MVP. You need to be
looking at better odds. Can you get this guy to
win the MVP in the Big Game? Or what are
(26:56):
the odds on this team to win win the whole thing?
And I think that's the thing you're trying to set
yourself up for success. Look across the board right now,
look at some of these teams overall and try and
figure it out. Like if you're looking at Carolina, you're
looking at Sebastian Ajo, if you're looking at the Washington Capitals. Hey,
I mean it's a little bit of a mixed bag.
(27:17):
You could honestly argue Dylan Strom right now, Carl. My
answer is I would say yes, just based on the
fact that it's a better number on both those players
than their teams. But at the end of the day,
I think we're gonna get an even better number if
that both those teams lose tonight. So yeah, maybe we're
betting the stock at the highest point. If we bet Ranton,
then right, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (27:38):
I agree with you if you look at the odds,
If you look at the odds and they're going to change,
I think we're at the low point of taking them
at like a plus five fifty. Because you look at
it's Connor McDavid, Miko Ranton and one is up one
nothing in the series and now has a home iice advantage.
One is up to nothing in the series. You look
at the Leaf players, same thing. Uh, they're up to
(28:01):
nothing in the series. You get a better indication of
what the true odds probably should be around Game four
if these series are tied at two two, because it's
it's open to whether they even make it that far.
At two two plus five fifty is way too low
in this spot for even Connor McDavid and Miko Ranton
(28:24):
in Pretz, I'm throwing in a few arms. A guy
commented yesterday later on after the videos posted, that I
say too many times. I responded with, I'm sorry that
doing six months of neuro rehab when I had a
brain injury, that I disappointed you with too many ums.
(28:45):
So he said we should use a disclaimer. So Dan,
if you can run on the bottom there, please excuse
Carmine for too many ums. He suffered a brain injury.
That would be great. It's a great disclaim to have
on the show. I want it. I want to pres
this is the perfect question for you because I know
(29:07):
what the answer you're gonna have. There's a guy in
our life chat, and I you know, I feel for
guys like this. Sergeant Pepper's Lonely Hearts is the name,
and he's like, I wish I'd just stayed a fan. No, listen,
I wish I'd just stayed a fan of my hockey teams.
Because he liked both hockey games yesterday, and he liked
both Dad's the best with the disclaimer. He liked both
(29:32):
hockey games yesterday, but the need for money caused them
to make a fourteen parlay with a couple of baseball bets,
and the baseball bets are the ones that ended up
mushing him. It's not a fourteen parlays aren't the way
to build your bankroll. But Lawrence, you can understand, not
from your point of view, but you can understand being
in this industry for so long, people do try and
(29:54):
build their bankrolls through these big ass parlays and it
doesn't work.
Speaker 4 (29:59):
Of course it doesn't work. Oh yeah, So just for
the record, who is that person? What's his name?
Speaker 3 (30:06):
Sergeon Pepper's.
Speaker 4 (30:07):
Yeah, mister Pepper, it was not the baseball that lost
you the parlay. It was the parlay that lost you
the parlay. We were playing poker on Sunday. A guy
at the table at a fourteen teen parlay missed it
(30:29):
by one. He was so mad at that one miss.
He was like, I can't remember the team whatever, the Cobs,
damn Cobbs, stupid cobs, idiot cobs fourteen teams. You're blaming
the cops anyway, mister Pepper, work cheering for you. Stick
(30:50):
to betting my NHL plays and all will be good
and there's no need to do a parlay with them.
And I even have a promo for you, mister Pepper,
NHL ninety nine. Thank you for allowing me to do
this again. NHL ninety nine. Rest of my NHL playout
ninety nine bucks. Guys, this was a blast.
Speaker 3 (31:15):
I do want to say, venturing away, it's still betting
related Andrew, but congratulations we have a new pope. Robert. Oh, yes,
we voast the fourteenth. Do you know that Lawrence his
odds were forty nine to one to win to win
(31:39):
the election.
Speaker 4 (31:40):
As what happened, I want to go into the room
the conclave.
Speaker 1 (31:46):
I saw like one hundred to one at some spots
the Conclave.
Speaker 3 (31:51):
Action Network had forty nine to one. What happened was
because the vote and because it ended so quickly five
votes I believe it was, and only two days everyone assumed.
Everyone assumed that one of the top guys like Paolo
I think it's Paulo or Piero Paoueline was to win
(32:14):
the secretary. So those odds everyone was betting, I mean
the polymarkets at plus two fifty plus one eighty. They
all assume it was him, So the odds on everyone
else rose so Andrew. Maybe he was in the polymarkets
plus one hundred plus one hundred thousand, but one hundred
to one, it does make sense, but forty nine to
(32:36):
one in the Action Network.
Speaker 4 (32:37):
I just realized why he won. And I'm so stupid
for not making the bet. If anybody won other than
an American, and they would have to pay extra money
when they go to America under the religious tariffs that
mister Trump is setting up.
Speaker 3 (32:54):
Oh god, that's the reason.
Speaker 4 (32:57):
There you go. Just for the record, and I did
not state whether those tariffs are good or bad. That
statement does not reflect any thoughts by the owners of
wager Talk, nor the Puck Time talent or Dan Alexander.
This has been a fun show, boys. I'm I'm on
(33:17):
wager Talk today today, I am on that. I'm a guess.
Speaker 2 (33:22):
I'm no way, yeah, no way. All right, we gotta
put a bow on this show. We got to wrap
it up.
Speaker 1 (33:28):
Uh disclaimer, who knows left press cook?
Speaker 2 (33:32):
All right, guys, it's NHL season, but playoff season at
least right now. But baseball's going well for me five
and one of my last six baseball plays and we're
doing the same process, same thing we did with the NHL.
The team totals are the way to go. My average
price in MLB so far minus one oh five. We
(33:52):
are betting good prices, betting good numbers. We already smacked
a five percent play this season in baseball, looking forward
to a really good one this year.
Speaker 1 (34:00):
At wager Talk.
Speaker 2 (34:01):
Out of thirty seven handicappers, I'm number five at the website.
We've earned over forty five units across all sports twenty
twenty five.
Speaker 1 (34:10):
Really really looking forward to the future.
Speaker 2 (34:12):
So guys, good time to be grabbing a seven day,
thirty day or even an all access pass for the summer.
So I got a baseball four percent best bet for tonight,
and we will of course be involved in NHL action.
So hey, not really that many big streaks for me lately,
but really been managing the Baker bankroll properly. Out of
that many handicappers, all these guys I respect so much.
(34:33):
At wager Talk thirty seven cappers, we're top five, so
I'm feeling pretty good about it. You guys can get
all my plays wt dapplas slash am back to you,
carme to close it out.
Speaker 3 (34:45):
So callably nothing. A couple of couple of small plays
maybe in the NHL tonight are the ones they discussed
on the show, and maybe an afternoon soccer play, but
a big weekend coming up for me as far as
European soccer. I'm going to give you guys a little
heads up on a play on Sunday that I do like.
(35:08):
This is in the Premier League. West Ham is plus
to eighty eight at Old Trafford against Manchester United. So
I know this is the Hockey Show, but I'm giving
you a plus to eighty eight and I don't think
that line tomorrow will be around. Because Man United played
on Thursday. They qualified for the Europa League Final, whe
(35:29):
they'll play Tottenham in Spain at the Athletic Bilbao Stadium.
They are likely going to rest all of their starters
or a majority of their starters. They could very well
start a youth team because this game has zero importance
to them. Being healthy and having all of their players
available on the twenty first of May in that final
(35:52):
is what's important to them because the winner of the
Europa League gets into the next year's Champions League, and
it's a team that's sitting fifteenth or sixteenth in the
right now. They're not getting relegated, they're not getting a
European spot. Their route to the Champions League is winning.
On the twenty first. Amarin the manager of a Man United,
(36:13):
He's likely going to come out with a lineup tomorrow
or there's gonna be some discussion. And if you see
that line dropping, and use the odds logic, if you
see that line dropping the plus two eighty eight goes down,
it means that there is some news coming out that
a lot of the starters will sit. I've already released
that one to clients, so I'm just giving you a
heads up that that could be a very good play
(36:34):
at plus two eighty eight. So that's it, guys, for myself,
the pres Andrew mckinnis, and our award winning producer Dan Alexander.
This is puck Time. Best of luck, you guys, have
a safe and profitable weekend, and we will see you
on Monday.
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