Expert Golf Handicappers Andy Lang and Nick Borrman take a closer look at betting the FedEx St. Jude Championship from TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN!
Intro 00:00
One & Done 00:45
Total Strokes Gained 2:29
Course Overview 7:40
Favorite Favorite 9:50
Players That Can Trip You Up 12:41
Worthy Longshot 16:12
Draftkings Darlings 19:22
Predictions 21:00
Intro 00:00
One & Done 00:45
Total Strokes Gained 2:29
Course Overview 7:40
Favorite Favorite 9:50
Players That Can Trip You Up 12:41
Worthy Longshot 16:12
Draftkings Darlings 19:22
Predictions 21:00
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The golf playoffs are here. It is the twenty twenty
five FedEx Saint Jude Championship. I am your host, Andy Lang.
Welcome to tea time being joined as always by my
fellow golf betting expert, Nick Borman. We're gonna break down
the field, gonna break down the course. We're gonna break
down some long shots, some favorites. But Nick, we always
start with our one and done. You are running away
(00:23):
with this. I cannot stop picking guys who missed the cut.
So I don't know why I'm so good at DraftKings darlings,
but terrible at my one and done. So the man
I am gonna curse this week is gonna be Chris
got her Up. So I apologize to you. Chris, something
terrible is about to happen to you. But you're listen.
(00:45):
He's I mean, you could argue top five best golfer
right now, like you gotta put Scheffler in there. I
think you have to put Fitzpatrick in there, and you know,
got Her Up is probably in there. So you look
at his recent finishes here, I mean, this guy's just
he's just incredible. Tenth third, first in his last three
(01:08):
starts twenty first, twenty six, twenty third before that. So
Chris god her up is going to be my one
and done. Who are you going with.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
The other hot guy?
Speaker 3 (01:17):
You'd expect to hear the name from everybody's paying attention
to Harris English. Yeah, I think he's as unsexy as
they come, as far as like the guys you're paying
attention to. He just kind of nonchalantly wrote, you know,
rolls through his thing, doesn't say much, doesn't make any noise,
but consistent eight top twenty five and his last eleven starts,
two runner ups in the last three majors, at the Open,
(01:38):
at the PGA. I mean, his t degreen game is
just it's very solid. He doesn't hit it far necessarily,
but he doesn't miss a lot, doesn't get in a
lot of trouble. That's why he's doing about the majors
this week tends to kind of be like that. It's
not as tough as a major, but you do have
to keep it in play. It's not you can't just
spray it everywhere. So I like Harris Inglis should roll
the rock right. It's confidence is high. I'll get into
(02:00):
it more in a little bit, but this event is
all about who's hot lately, At least the last several
winners have gone that way. So I like Harris English too,
like good news, any we're both gonna make the cut.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
We got back on for us, Yeah, you hope. So
all right, well let's go to the total strokes gained
a chart. One notable name that we're missing his room
Rory McElroy. But again, like you said, what's there's no
point with the way they're doing the points. It's kind
of silly here, so littered with the biggest of the
(02:31):
big names. So walk us through this one, and I
guess the one that really sticks out is the Matthew
Fitzpatrick isn't isn't quite in there in the last in
the last league, like like six months. But man, you
could argue he's right behind Scotti Shuffler right now. So
walk us through this chart. What's your takeaways this week?
Speaker 2 (02:50):
Yeah, so this is the top ten of the last
twelve months.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
I'm going to always use this graphic because history tells
us it's a pretty good predictor of these big events.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
You can see up at the.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
Top thirty one to forty seven winners of the Signatures
majors and the playoffs going back to the start of
twenty three now have been in the top ten. So
the best in the fields, the best courses of the world,
the best time, the rise at the top. Now, the
history of this event you mentioned the guys in the bottom,
Fitzpatrick and Sutch. The history of this event has been
more so who's hot lately, Like who's coming in with
(03:21):
the best best form, right, and that's where the guys
at the bottom are gonna are going to fill this graphic.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
So if you just go back a little bit.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
Last year, Matsiama, he had ranked twelfth in the in
the strokes games over the last twelve months heading in,
but he was fourth place over the previous six months,
so his best golf was just in front of him.
Before that tournament twenty twenty three, Glover, he was second
to last in the field and strokes gained over the
last twelve months, but he had just won the week
(03:51):
prior and he had four top six finishes excuse me,
three top six finishes in his previous four starts.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
Prior to the window.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
So again, yeah, his long term wasn't there, but he was,
you know, roaring into great form, right, before that, And
it can be said for Zalatorus back in twenty two
he ranked twelve also in the twelve months, so it's
not like they're horrible in the twelve months, but he
was much closer. He was tenth in the last three months,
and he had six top six finishes in twelve starts.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Leading up to the window.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
So again it's this tournament proves or has proved in
the last several years to be who's the hottest right now,
and that this graphic I think shows that in the
top ten, this is the twelve months, you can see
guys like Justin Thomas trending downward. Colin morri Howell, we've
been talking about him weekend and week out anytime he's playing,
is just in avoid altogether. You can see his numbers
(04:43):
over the last three months. But the guys that are
surging are at the bottom. Harris English Fitzpatrick.
Speaker 2 (04:48):
Got it right. We already talked about all three.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
Those are the guys that are in the best form
and sit in the top five in strokes game three months,
along with Scottie of course. And then you can see
Tommy Fleetwood up there as well. And and for that
meltdown a few weeks ago he would at least be
like like Cam Young in this past week can finally
have gotten that first two wins. So still not gonna
bet him quite yet, but he is playing playing very well.
(05:11):
Other than that, you got Maziama, same trend, right, So
those are the guys pat Patrick Cantley. I don't even
know how he's on this top twelve either the last
two years being anything, doing anything, but again.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
You know the exact time you see shots of him,
they don't even show shots of him. It was just
like not he's disappeared thirtieth and it's even gonna.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
Be on the Ryder Cup, Like you know, there's a
lot of questions going on with him, but you can
see the trends there. Like the other guys I mentioned,
they're going the wrong way. It's a reason you're not
hearing their names.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
And then you got a guy like Russell.
Speaker 3 (05:42):
Henley, who I like a lot this week quietly like
four straight top tens. Only Scotti Scheffler has more top
tens than in this season. So it's all about the
trends for me this week as far as current Formanny
and I think this graphic shows that pretty well.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
Who's in the best form in the short term. And
of course you know you can go.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
Sort if you have back to strokes, Gaydad, even go sort,
but I would do it in this particular week.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
By the six month or three month look for the
guys turning up right.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
Now, it's all three months for me. I don't care
how you played in January, yeah, February, I care about
how you're playing now. All right, Well, let's talk about
TPC south wind. It is gonna be really hot, Nick,
but no wind, it's just gonna be ninety degrees no breeze.
So this is gonna be a par seventy. It's about
(06:29):
seventy two forty four on the yardage, and yeah, you
mentioned you can't spray the ball off the team the
rough it's going to be three to four inches, and
you know there's obstacles, and the fairways are somewhat narrow,
greens are pretty pretty good. You get the par three eleventh,
par three fourteenth where you've gotta be like ridiculously accurate.
(06:52):
I think there's nine or ten holes with water hazards,
a lot of bunkers, and there's some dog legs too
as well. So to me, I don't think you're gonna
have too much opposition here the hot. I don't know
if the hot's gonna bother any of these guys. I'm
guessing with no wind, I think this course is gonna
be wide open to somebody that gets loose, like like
(07:13):
Cam Young did, like you just need one guy to
go crazy with the putter. I'm gonna go with minus
nineteen as as the winner this week. So I think
the greens might firm up a little bit. But again
we go back to Justin Thomas. You give us receptive greens,
we're gonna go low. So what's your take on TPC
south Wind.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
Well, I'll lead right into what you just said, the greens.
I'll lead right into the greens. The greens are completely
redone since last year's tournament. They resurfaced them all. They
actually expanded them a little bit. They were like an
average of forty three hundred square feet. Now that up
to forty five hundred square feet, which is small. It's
under the average, and the PGA tourists these are smaller greens,
and they added some undulation on some of the wholes.
(07:55):
So my strategy typically is like I kind of weigh
like on you know, course, course history and in current
form are always factors, right, and I weigh current form
certainly more than course history. But maybe it's two thirds
to a third or three quarters to a quarter. I'm
probably dropping my weight on course history even in half
(08:15):
this week, just because you know, when.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
It comes to course history.
Speaker 3 (08:18):
Yeah, there's something to be said for knowing the shape
of the hole and what fits your eye. But a
lot of the course history has to do with your
comfortability on around the greens, and if these are a
little bit different than what the last you know, five
six whatever years these guys have gotten used to, and
I do think that kind of levels the playing field
on course history, So I'm not weighing.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
That that much.
Speaker 3 (08:35):
I wanted to bring that up, so it's a big change.
They did redo all the tea's too, though from my
understanding is that they don't really move any They sent
They lengthened a few three holes, I think, so nothing
crazy there. But the greens certainly are something to pay
attention to. But aside from that, not much here. It
is a little tighter. You can't get away with spring
off the tee like you can, like the last couple
(08:57):
of weeks so maybe a little bit more emphasis on
your TV Green game, or or just guys hitting fairways
because it is longer. There's only two par five here, Andy,
and it's a parr seventy. That's seventy three hundred ish yards, right,
so you're gonna have some long par fours and two
more than you know you see on a typical week.
So I do think, you know, hitting the fairaway and
being dialed in with mid to long irons is.
Speaker 2 (09:18):
Going to be important this week. Ball strikers, right, what else?
It's always going to come down to ball strikers.
Speaker 3 (09:23):
But I just wanted to mention that the course is
a little different this year. So if you weigh in
your own handicapping course history pretty heavily, maybe just tried
a little cautiously this week.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
Let's go to your favorite favorite. Let's take a look
at one of the bigger name guys at a shorter price.
Who do you have dialed in for this week?
Speaker 2 (09:41):
Yeah, Russell Henley. I mentioned him in the Strokes game.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
He's it's always Russell Hendley.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
Always.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
It's just always Russell Henley.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
He's always there, don't hear about him? And you don't
even see a shot until Sunday and all of a
sudden he's like, why.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Is he tight for six?
Speaker 3 (09:54):
What did I And there he is, and all of
a sudden he's kind of close to the to the lead.
So I mentioned before only Scott he has more top.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
Tens than Handling. This year. He's got nine and fifteen starts.
Speaker 3 (10:07):
He's got recent results of top ten at the Open,
top ten at the US Open, time for ten, excuse me,
time for fifth of the Memorial, runner up at.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
The Travelers, of course he won earlier this year too.
Speaker 3 (10:17):
I mentioned how important I think the short term for
him is, and he's, you know, right there at the
top of this list of guys in the best form
going into this tournament. Yeah, he lacks distance off the tee,
but clearly that hasn't really hurt him on some of
the major courses. And if you look at again the
US Open and the Memorial, what do those have in common?
Speaker 2 (10:37):
They're hard, They're hard.
Speaker 3 (10:37):
Golf courses is long, rough, there's your penalties for missing,
and I do think while this course is not going
to play as tough as those, I do think there's
a penalty for missing this week. So I love the
fact that he is elite with you know, his driver
and as irons.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
As far as hitting throws at hitting greens. I know
I said course history has waited less, but.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
I will mention that, you know, he he's got seven
starts on this track, he's got three miss cuts, so
again I don't weigh that as such a negative. But
he does have two top seven finish this year as well,
so he had some comfortability around.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
The course and again a little bit lower on the
weight for me.
Speaker 3 (11:11):
For a guy that ranks fifth andy in total strokes
game this season, including eighth t to Green and again
with only Scotty Scheffler bettering his nine top ten finish
this season, he's thirty to one. He's the sixth about
betting favorite depending on the book you look at fifth, sixth,
seventh in that range. So I kind of have him
(11:32):
as like the second or third guy this week as
far as who should be put in order.
Speaker 2 (11:36):
So I like the value on him.
Speaker 3 (11:37):
You know, you don't have Rory in the field obviously,
so it's basically Scotty, and can you really separate anybody
else from Scott you know the rest of the field
and Scotty. Is there anybody else in that second tier
that's really going to go rank higher than everybody else.
So xanders at sixteen to one. Other guys are in
the twenty to one, So thirty to one on Henley
for no separation in my mind of talent on anybody
(11:58):
else in the next year.
Speaker 2 (11:59):
I think good value this week for.
Speaker 1 (12:02):
Love it, love it, Yeah, I mean you get again,
just fantastic odds top twenty. What is five top tens
in a row. Yeah, it's crazy. He's a machine. He's
a machine. So all right, well, let's go to some
players that I think can trip you up, the opposite
of Russell Henley, some guys that I think are overvalued
(12:22):
in overpriced. So I'm gonna start with I'm gonna start
with our boy, Tommy Fleetwood. You know, yeah, he's just
being priced like a top tier contender, and I just
I don't believe in the value. Since that final whole loss,
he's played twice, He's finished thirty fourth and sixteenth. Not
really a good back about back surge nick fourteenth and
(12:45):
total strokes gained over the last thirty days in this field,
It's good, but not enough to warrant this price. Finished
twenty second here last year, so steady you know, as
steady as they come. But I just I don't believe
in betting on Tommy Fleetwood and he's ranked as a
top three guy. He just always seems to not deliver
his value. So poor Tommy, Poor Tommy Fleetwood. It's been
(13:10):
that loss is going to haunt him forever. Hope we
see him win, but I don't think this week is it.
We have to mention Colin Mori Kawa Nick. I do
not get why he's priced as a top ten threat
this week. I mean, this is lunacy. Mindset does not
back it up, miss the cut in his last two starts,
he has one top fifteen finish in his last ten.
(13:30):
He's firing caddies. He's an absolute mess. This is a
shocking stat from this guy, Nick. Over the last thirty days,
he's second to last in this field in total strokes gain,
second to last. Wow, there's only one guy wor I'll
look at it, yeah, yeah, look it up it. It's
(13:51):
stunning what has happened to this guy with the talent,
but it's just not there. So I'll be looking for
another juicy head to head matchup. I don't even know
who they would put up against him. In a head
to head matchup that I wouldn't bet. I might be
surprised if they even have head to head matchups with him.
But he's an absolute fade at this point. And then
Keegan Bradley, Boy did he stick it to me last week? Nick.
(14:12):
All he needed for him was to make the cut
and we cash the best bet, and he couldn't even
do that. You know, he did have the recent win,
but boyd momentum has kind of faded after this win.
Forty first, thirtieth and missed cut not exactly trending in
the right direction for the captain course history not very
good either. Fifty ninth, forty third to miss cut the
(14:32):
last three years. Yikes. So Tommy Fleetwood, Colin Morrikawa, Keegan Bradley,
I just think they're over priced this week. I will
not be betting on them. As far as fades, I
don't know if I'm fading Fleetwood or or Keegan not
betting on him, but Colin Morrikawa, that's an absolute fade
if you get a good matchup. So those are the
players that can trip you up. Before we get to
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let's get to some long shots here. Nick was a
guy a little bit off the beaten path that you're
you got your eye on this week.
Speaker 3 (15:56):
By the way, Tommy Hoage was the guy there. It
is smart Kala in the thirty days. So Tom hug
Kalam Maar Kaala graduate wild.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
But my worthy long shot.
Speaker 3 (16:08):
And again when you get to these playoffs and you
get into events that are seventy players, fifty players, thirty players,
your long odds start to dwindle, right, and there's a
there's a realistic line.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
I believe where you're probably not going to get a winner.
Speaker 3 (16:21):
But Bobby Mack, you know, I wouldn't really consider him
a long long shot, but at fifty to one, it's
pretty good odds in this field, and he kind of
falls into that mid range tire.
Speaker 2 (16:30):
But man, he has.
Speaker 3 (16:31):
Some some some great finishes and some and some big
tournaments this year. He obviously has the runner up to
JJ Spond at the US Open. He was close again
at the Open, tie for seventh. You go back into
the Spring, he had a tie for ninth of the players.
So like the biggest events, the strongest fields, he's there.
He fits the profile of guys surging at the moment.
(16:51):
He's got five top twenty finishes in his last eight starts.
Again not putting a lot on this, but he did
finish tie for seventh year last year, some comfortability, you know. Again,
I believe this course demands accuracy, officity and good iron
play especially. The one thing about McIntyre that's worth noting
is like he kind of he played college golf in
(17:12):
the area.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
He went to Louisiana, right, so he's familiar with what
this golf course.
Speaker 3 (17:16):
Presents, which is bermuda, bermuda rough, bermuda grass, hot conditions.
You mentioned the weather going into this tournament. You know,
it reminds me of as long time ago. But they
talked about Tiger Woods winning the PGA at Southern Hills
right in Oklahoma, and maybe it's not gonna be that hot,
but there was so much to be made about how
(17:37):
much physical energy that that week's affter out of players,
and Tiger simply outlasted from an athletic ability from a
stamina standpoint, everybody else.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
In the field more than outplayed them.
Speaker 3 (17:49):
I'm not saying Bobby mac is the epitome of physical conditioning,
of course, but there is something to be said for
being used to these these type of conditions. So I
do like the fact that he played college golf through
this area, He's played on these services.
Speaker 2 (18:01):
He knows Bermuda grass very very well.
Speaker 3 (18:03):
He's done great in the Florida Swing, so I do
think it lines up kind of well with this, with
this golf course and the fact that there are different
greens and still Marina, it's still going to be the
straight of grass that you know he's comfortable with. In contrast,
his putting does tend to be his best skill set,
which I kind of mentioned Russell Henley. I'm going with
a guy that's great t degree and not worrying about
(18:23):
putting so much. So maybe I'm spreading my eggs out
a little bit on the skill profiles because that's his
kind of best attribute. But his t green game is
solid in recent recent months, and I'm just going to
roll with the fact that I think it continues this
week in a place that I think he's a little
bit more comfortable at least with the conditions than most
in this field.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
I liked it You're casual enough with him to refer
to him as Bobby.
Speaker 2 (18:47):
Really we text we go back.
Speaker 1 (18:50):
That is that is a power move, Bobby, Bobby Mac
It's going to be your long shot. All right, let's
go to draft Kings Darklings got right back on the
winning track. I don't think I've had two losing weeks
in a row this season. Nick, If it was, it
was a long time ago, lost a couple weeks ago
than forty third out of one hundred and fifty an attorney.
(19:12):
So again, best year I've ever had in DFS. So
let's keep the train rolling here. Yeah, kind of tough
to pick. I was expecting it to be hard to
find some value deep down in the DFS lineups, but
there's some guys I like, let's start with Johnny Vegas. Yeah,
you can call him Bobby, I'll call him Johnny. Johnny
Vegas here sixty four hundred, very reliable cutmaker. He's just
(19:34):
a stable kind of guy. Great price at sixty four hundred,
made six straight cuts, finished fortieth at this event last year,
so he can handle the course. He doesn't offer a
lot of upside here, but just when you're digging deep,
just give me four decent rounds. Don't finish dead last,
so we're just trying to We're just trying to get
some some good points over four rounds. So Miiliano Grillo
(19:57):
sixty six hundred, he's underpriced as well, made the got
in eight out of last nine tournaments. Course history is
rock solid, thirty third, twentieth and thirty first here over
the last three years, so he's got a little bit
of a higher floor than Vegas at sixty six hundred,
so if he gets his top twenty five finish, it's
a steal. And a guy that I struggle with Nick,
(20:18):
I don't. I hate his inconsistency, but Wyndham Clark has
been playing really, really good. This is another guy that's
kind of flying under the radar. Three straight top twelve finishes.
He finished seventh here last year and he's only seventy
six hundred, so over the last thirty days he's ninth
in this field and total strokes gained, so seventy six
hundred pretty pretty big upside mid tier price, so he's
(20:41):
going to be a strong DFS play. And as always,
my full lineup can be found at my page wt
dot bus last al that's the exact same page where
you can get the buy one, get one myself and
Nick Moorman's all of our golf plays for the next
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It's got the right ups on these players and it's
(21:02):
got the full DFS lineup though, so that's over at
WT dot buzz slash a l All right, Nick, any
any predictions here? You know, it's it's you mentioned the
points and it's like, well, you don't have to to
play well, do you? Do you suspect maybe there might
be a little letdown from some of these top tier
guys that know they're going to advance, or do you
(21:23):
expect like guys like Scheffler. I don't expect the letdown
from Scheffler. Whenever he plays, He's going out there to win.
But I'm wondering if we see some of these bigger
name guys kind of ho hum their way through it,
and yeah, any any thoughts on if that's a possibility
this week?
Speaker 3 (21:39):
It is an interesting angle because Rory is proving on.
I'm surprised more ifeop aren't doing what Rory's doing.
Speaker 2 (21:45):
Right.
Speaker 3 (21:45):
We don't have the starting strokes and the Tour Championship
this year, so every all thirty players have an equal
chance of winning that event and technically being the FedEx
Cup Championship. So if you're in the top ten at
this point, you're you're already guaranteed to be in the
top thirty other than just winning a tournament. Winning money, Yes,
that's always an incentive, But if you're really trying to
go for that tour championship playing three straight weeks and
(22:06):
taking a week off here, I wonder, I honestly wonder
if what's going to happen next week? Right Like soot,
he hasn't played since he open, so I get it
he wants, maybe he's trying. Maybe he's gonna play this
week skip next week.
Speaker 2 (22:20):
Oh, I don't know.
Speaker 3 (22:23):
I honestly this is the first time we're dealing with
this because number back in Tiger's day, they change the rules,
so you know there would be somewhat of a penalty
to missing an event. But now it's kind of back
to that situation. So I don't know. It's a little
bit hard to decide on that. The answer in my
head is tread lightly because it doesn't you know, it's
(22:43):
not like they're fighting for every every point here, They're
just trying to win a golf tournament. I would look
at it this way. Maybe if you're if you're in
connection to win the golf.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
Tournament, you're going right. But if you get off to
a slow start on Thursday.
Speaker 3 (22:56):
It might be more going through the motions the rest
of the week and then just trying to work on something,
grinding over every single shot, just trying to figure out
a few things from there. So pay attention to kind
of where the markets moved after round one, after round two.
You know, don't expect if Scotti's wants. I never want
to say, don't expect Scotty to come back and finish
top ten, because he's always seems to do that anyway.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
Yeah, but maybe don't expect him to come back and win.
Speaker 3 (23:16):
If he falls behind or any of those tough guys
and they fall behind, they might just, you know what,
I'm gonna come back next week and get my stuff together.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
You know. The whole thing was silly with the points
and then they change it in the middle of this season,
which is crazy. But I gotta tell you it's it's
gonna be interesting because you could have a guy like
got her up.
Speaker 2 (23:37):
Yeah, all he needs is.
Speaker 1 (23:39):
To catch fire at the last tournament. You're like, wait,
got her ups? The wait Matsuyama came out of nowhere
to win what happened here? So it should be an
interesting three weeks but we catch covered here on Tea Time.
Don't forget to hit the like button, guys, it really
really helps the YouTube algorithm. And again leave a comment
tell us who you like this week. A lot of
(23:59):
great bets on the board here. I've got my eye
on a couple of top twenties. Russell Henley is obviously
one of them. Nick talked about him. I'd love to
see some of your bets in the comment section. It's
been a great year and we got three more weeks
until we crown a champion, so thanks very much for
joining us. Everyone. Don't forget to take advantage of that
buy one, get one special. You can get all of
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(24:21):
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All right, that's going to do it for us this
week on Tea Time. Hope everyone has a great tournament.
Good luck on all your bets and take care
The golf playoffs are here. It is the twenty twenty
five FedEx Saint Jude Championship. I am your host, Andy Lang.
Welcome to tea time being joined as always by my
fellow golf betting expert, Nick Borman. We're gonna break down
the field, gonna break down the course. We're gonna break
down some long shots, some favorites. But Nick, we always
start with our one and done. You are running away
(00:23):
with this. I cannot stop picking guys who missed the cut.
So I don't know why I'm so good at DraftKings darlings,
but terrible at my one and done. So the man
I am gonna curse this week is gonna be Chris
got her Up. So I apologize to you. Chris, something
terrible is about to happen to you. But you're listen.
(00:45):
He's I mean, you could argue top five best golfer
right now, like you gotta put Scheffler in there. I
think you have to put Fitzpatrick in there, and you know,
got Her Up is probably in there. So you look
at his recent finishes here, I mean, this guy's just
he's just incredible. Tenth third, first in his last three
(01:08):
starts twenty first, twenty six, twenty third before that. So
Chris god her up is going to be my one
and done. Who are you going with.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
The other hot guy?
Speaker 3 (01:17):
You'd expect to hear the name from everybody's paying attention
to Harris English. Yeah, I think he's as unsexy as
they come, as far as like the guys you're paying
attention to. He just kind of nonchalantly wrote, you know,
rolls through his thing, doesn't say much, doesn't make any noise,
but consistent eight top twenty five and his last eleven starts,
two runner ups in the last three majors, at the Open,
(01:38):
at the PGA. I mean, his t degreen game is
just it's very solid. He doesn't hit it far necessarily,
but he doesn't miss a lot, doesn't get in a
lot of trouble. That's why he's doing about the majors
this week tends to kind of be like that. It's
not as tough as a major, but you do have
to keep it in play. It's not you can't just
spray it everywhere. So I like Harris Inglis should roll
the rock right. It's confidence is high. I'll get into
(02:00):
it more in a little bit, but this event is
all about who's hot lately, At least the last several
winners have gone that way. So I like Harris English too,
like good news, any we're both gonna make the cut.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
We got back on for us, Yeah, you hope. So
all right, well let's go to the total strokes gained
a chart. One notable name that we're missing his room
Rory McElroy. But again, like you said, what's there's no
point with the way they're doing the points. It's kind
of silly here, so littered with the biggest of the
(02:31):
big names. So walk us through this one, and I
guess the one that really sticks out is the Matthew
Fitzpatrick isn't isn't quite in there in the last in
the last league, like like six months. But man, you
could argue he's right behind Scotti Shuffler right now. So
walk us through this chart. What's your takeaways this week?
Speaker 2 (02:50):
Yeah, so this is the top ten of the last
twelve months.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
I'm going to always use this graphic because history tells
us it's a pretty good predictor of these big events.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
You can see up at the.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
Top thirty one to forty seven winners of the Signatures
majors and the playoffs going back to the start of
twenty three now have been in the top ten. So
the best in the fields, the best courses of the world,
the best time, the rise at the top. Now, the
history of this event you mentioned the guys in the bottom,
Fitzpatrick and Sutch. The history of this event has been
more so who's hot lately, Like who's coming in with
(03:21):
the best best form, right, and that's where the guys
at the bottom are gonna are going to fill this graphic.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
So if you just go back a little bit.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
Last year, Matsiama, he had ranked twelfth in the in
the strokes games over the last twelve months heading in,
but he was fourth place over the previous six months,
so his best golf was just in front of him.
Before that tournament twenty twenty three, Glover, he was second
to last in the field and strokes gained over the
last twelve months, but he had just won the week
(03:51):
prior and he had four top six finishes excuse me,
three top six finishes in his previous four starts.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
Prior to the window.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
So again, yeah, his long term wasn't there, but he was,
you know, roaring into great form, right, before that, And
it can be said for Zalatorus back in twenty two
he ranked twelve also in the twelve months, so it's
not like they're horrible in the twelve months, but he
was much closer. He was tenth in the last three months,
and he had six top six finishes in twelve starts.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Leading up to the window.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
So again it's this tournament proves or has proved in
the last several years to be who's the hottest right now,
and that this graphic I think shows that in the
top ten, this is the twelve months, you can see
guys like Justin Thomas trending downward. Colin morri Howell, we've
been talking about him weekend and week out anytime he's playing,
is just in avoid altogether. You can see his numbers
(04:43):
over the last three months. But the guys that are
surging are at the bottom. Harris English Fitzpatrick.
Speaker 2 (04:48):
Got it right. We already talked about all three.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
Those are the guys that are in the best form
and sit in the top five in strokes game three months,
along with Scottie of course. And then you can see
Tommy Fleetwood up there as well. And and for that
meltdown a few weeks ago he would at least be
like like Cam Young in this past week can finally
have gotten that first two wins. So still not gonna
bet him quite yet, but he is playing playing very well.
(05:11):
Other than that, you got Maziama, same trend, right, So
those are the guys pat Patrick Cantley. I don't even
know how he's on this top twelve either the last
two years being anything, doing anything, but again.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
You know the exact time you see shots of him,
they don't even show shots of him. It was just
like not he's disappeared thirtieth and it's even gonna.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
Be on the Ryder Cup, Like you know, there's a
lot of questions going on with him, but you can
see the trends there. Like the other guys I mentioned,
they're going the wrong way. It's a reason you're not
hearing their names.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
And then you got a guy like Russell.
Speaker 3 (05:42):
Henley, who I like a lot this week quietly like
four straight top tens. Only Scotti Scheffler has more top
tens than in this season. So it's all about the
trends for me this week as far as current Formanny
and I think this graphic shows that pretty well.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
Who's in the best form in the short term. And
of course you know you can go.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
Sort if you have back to strokes, Gaydad, even go sort,
but I would do it in this particular week.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
By the six month or three month look for the
guys turning up right.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
Now, it's all three months for me. I don't care
how you played in January, yeah, February, I care about
how you're playing now. All right, Well, let's talk about
TPC south wind. It is gonna be really hot, Nick,
but no wind, it's just gonna be ninety degrees no breeze.
So this is gonna be a par seventy. It's about
(06:29):
seventy two forty four on the yardage, and yeah, you
mentioned you can't spray the ball off the team the
rough it's going to be three to four inches, and
you know there's obstacles, and the fairways are somewhat narrow,
greens are pretty pretty good. You get the par three eleventh,
par three fourteenth where you've gotta be like ridiculously accurate.
(06:52):
I think there's nine or ten holes with water hazards,
a lot of bunkers, and there's some dog legs too
as well. So to me, I don't think you're gonna
have too much opposition here the hot. I don't know
if the hot's gonna bother any of these guys. I'm
guessing with no wind, I think this course is gonna
be wide open to somebody that gets loose, like like
(07:13):
Cam Young did, like you just need one guy to
go crazy with the putter. I'm gonna go with minus
nineteen as as the winner this week. So I think
the greens might firm up a little bit. But again
we go back to Justin Thomas. You give us receptive greens,
we're gonna go low. So what's your take on TPC
south Wind.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
Well, I'll lead right into what you just said, the greens.
I'll lead right into the greens. The greens are completely
redone since last year's tournament. They resurfaced them all. They
actually expanded them a little bit. They were like an
average of forty three hundred square feet. Now that up
to forty five hundred square feet, which is small. It's
under the average, and the PGA tourists these are smaller greens,
and they added some undulation on some of the wholes.
(07:55):
So my strategy typically is like I kind of weigh
like on you know, course, course history and in current
form are always factors, right, and I weigh current form
certainly more than course history. But maybe it's two thirds
to a third or three quarters to a quarter. I'm
probably dropping my weight on course history even in half
(08:15):
this week, just because you know, when.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
It comes to course history.
Speaker 3 (08:18):
Yeah, there's something to be said for knowing the shape
of the hole and what fits your eye. But a
lot of the course history has to do with your
comfortability on around the greens, and if these are a
little bit different than what the last you know, five
six whatever years these guys have gotten used to, and
I do think that kind of levels the playing field
on course history, So I'm not weighing.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
That that much.
Speaker 3 (08:35):
I wanted to bring that up, so it's a big change.
They did redo all the tea's too, though from my
understanding is that they don't really move any They sent
They lengthened a few three holes, I think, so nothing
crazy there. But the greens certainly are something to pay
attention to. But aside from that, not much here. It
is a little tighter. You can't get away with spring
off the tee like you can, like the last couple
(08:57):
of weeks so maybe a little bit more emphasis on
your TV Green game, or or just guys hitting fairways
because it is longer. There's only two par five here, Andy,
and it's a parr seventy. That's seventy three hundred ish yards, right,
so you're gonna have some long par fours and two
more than you know you see on a typical week.
So I do think, you know, hitting the fairaway and
being dialed in with mid to long irons is.
Speaker 2 (09:18):
Going to be important this week. Ball strikers, right, what else?
It's always going to come down to ball strikers.
Speaker 3 (09:23):
But I just wanted to mention that the course is
a little different this year. So if you weigh in
your own handicapping course history pretty heavily, maybe just tried
a little cautiously this week.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
Let's go to your favorite favorite. Let's take a look
at one of the bigger name guys at a shorter price.
Who do you have dialed in for this week?
Speaker 2 (09:41):
Yeah, Russell Henley. I mentioned him in the Strokes game.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
He's it's always Russell Hendley.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
Always.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
It's just always Russell Henley.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
He's always there, don't hear about him? And you don't
even see a shot until Sunday and all of a
sudden he's like, why.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Is he tight for six?
Speaker 3 (09:54):
What did I And there he is, and all of
a sudden he's kind of close to the to the lead.
So I mentioned before only Scott he has more top.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
Tens than Handling. This year. He's got nine and fifteen starts.
Speaker 3 (10:07):
He's got recent results of top ten at the Open,
top ten at the US Open, time for ten, excuse me,
time for fifth of the Memorial, runner up at.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
The Travelers, of course he won earlier this year too.
Speaker 3 (10:17):
I mentioned how important I think the short term for
him is, and he's, you know, right there at the
top of this list of guys in the best form
going into this tournament. Yeah, he lacks distance off the tee,
but clearly that hasn't really hurt him on some of
the major courses. And if you look at again the
US Open and the Memorial, what do those have in common?
Speaker 2 (10:37):
They're hard, They're hard.
Speaker 3 (10:37):
Golf courses is long, rough, there's your penalties for missing,
and I do think while this course is not going
to play as tough as those, I do think there's
a penalty for missing this week. So I love the
fact that he is elite with you know, his driver
and as irons.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
As far as hitting throws at hitting greens. I know
I said course history has waited less, but.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
I will mention that, you know, he he's got seven
starts on this track, he's got three miss cuts, so
again I don't weigh that as such a negative. But
he does have two top seven finish this year as well,
so he had some comfortability around.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
The course and again a little bit lower on the
weight for me.
Speaker 3 (11:11):
For a guy that ranks fifth andy in total strokes
game this season, including eighth t to Green and again
with only Scotty Scheffler bettering his nine top ten finish
this season, he's thirty to one. He's the sixth about
betting favorite depending on the book you look at fifth, sixth,
seventh in that range. So I kind of have him
(11:32):
as like the second or third guy this week as
far as who should be put in order.
Speaker 2 (11:36):
So I like the value on him.
Speaker 3 (11:37):
You know, you don't have Rory in the field obviously,
so it's basically Scotty, and can you really separate anybody
else from Scott you know the rest of the field
and Scotty. Is there anybody else in that second tier
that's really going to go rank higher than everybody else.
So xanders at sixteen to one. Other guys are in
the twenty to one, So thirty to one on Henley
for no separation in my mind of talent on anybody
(11:58):
else in the next year.
Speaker 2 (11:59):
I think good value this week for.
Speaker 1 (12:02):
Love it, love it, Yeah, I mean you get again,
just fantastic odds top twenty. What is five top tens
in a row. Yeah, it's crazy. He's a machine. He's
a machine. So all right, well, let's go to some
players that I think can trip you up, the opposite
of Russell Henley, some guys that I think are overvalued
(12:22):
in overpriced. So I'm gonna start with I'm gonna start
with our boy, Tommy Fleetwood. You know, yeah, he's just
being priced like a top tier contender, and I just
I don't believe in the value. Since that final whole loss,
he's played twice, He's finished thirty fourth and sixteenth. Not
really a good back about back surge nick fourteenth and
(12:45):
total strokes gained over the last thirty days in this field,
It's good, but not enough to warrant this price. Finished
twenty second here last year, so steady you know, as
steady as they come. But I just I don't believe
in betting on Tommy Fleetwood and he's ranked as a
top three guy. He just always seems to not deliver
his value. So poor Tommy, Poor Tommy Fleetwood. It's been
(13:10):
that loss is going to haunt him forever. Hope we
see him win, but I don't think this week is it.
We have to mention Colin Mori Kawa Nick. I do
not get why he's priced as a top ten threat
this week. I mean, this is lunacy. Mindset does not
back it up, miss the cut in his last two starts,
he has one top fifteen finish in his last ten.
(13:30):
He's firing caddies. He's an absolute mess. This is a
shocking stat from this guy, Nick. Over the last thirty days,
he's second to last in this field in total strokes gain,
second to last. Wow, there's only one guy wor I'll
look at it, yeah, yeah, look it up it. It's
(13:51):
stunning what has happened to this guy with the talent,
but it's just not there. So I'll be looking for
another juicy head to head matchup. I don't even know
who they would put up against him. In a head
to head matchup that I wouldn't bet. I might be
surprised if they even have head to head matchups with him.
But he's an absolute fade at this point. And then
Keegan Bradley, Boy did he stick it to me last week? Nick.
(14:12):
All he needed for him was to make the cut
and we cash the best bet, and he couldn't even
do that. You know, he did have the recent win,
but boyd momentum has kind of faded after this win.
Forty first, thirtieth and missed cut not exactly trending in
the right direction for the captain course history not very
good either. Fifty ninth, forty third to miss cut the
(14:32):
last three years. Yikes. So Tommy Fleetwood, Colin Morrikawa, Keegan Bradley,
I just think they're over priced this week. I will
not be betting on them. As far as fades, I
don't know if I'm fading Fleetwood or or Keegan not
betting on him, but Colin Morrikawa, that's an absolute fade
if you get a good matchup. So those are the
players that can trip you up. Before we get to
Nick's long shot, we are running an incredible special Buy one,
(14:56):
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(15:17):
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Yeah yeah, just in a couple of weeks, live live
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(15:39):
So take advantage of that. No promo code needed, Just
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slash NB or wt dot buzz slash a L. All right,
let's get to some long shots here. Nick was a
guy a little bit off the beaten path that you're
you got your eye on this week.
Speaker 3 (15:56):
By the way, Tommy Hoage was the guy there. It
is smart Kala in the thirty days. So Tom hug
Kalam Maar Kaala graduate wild.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
But my worthy long shot.
Speaker 3 (16:08):
And again when you get to these playoffs and you
get into events that are seventy players, fifty players, thirty players,
your long odds start to dwindle, right, and there's a
there's a realistic line.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
I believe where you're probably not going to get a winner.
Speaker 3 (16:21):
But Bobby Mack, you know, I wouldn't really consider him
a long long shot, but at fifty to one, it's
pretty good odds in this field, and he kind of
falls into that mid range tire.
Speaker 2 (16:30):
But man, he has.
Speaker 3 (16:31):
Some some some great finishes and some and some big
tournaments this year. He obviously has the runner up to
JJ Spond at the US Open. He was close again
at the Open, tie for seventh. You go back into
the Spring, he had a tie for ninth of the players.
So like the biggest events, the strongest fields, he's there.
He fits the profile of guys surging at the moment.
(16:51):
He's got five top twenty finishes in his last eight starts.
Again not putting a lot on this, but he did
finish tie for seventh year last year, some comfortability, you know. Again,
I believe this course demands accuracy, officity and good iron
play especially. The one thing about McIntyre that's worth noting
is like he kind of he played college golf in
(17:12):
the area.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
He went to Louisiana, right, so he's familiar with what
this golf course.
Speaker 3 (17:16):
Presents, which is bermuda, bermuda rough, bermuda grass, hot conditions.
You mentioned the weather going into this tournament. You know,
it reminds me of as long time ago. But they
talked about Tiger Woods winning the PGA at Southern Hills
right in Oklahoma, and maybe it's not gonna be that hot,
but there was so much to be made about how
(17:37):
much physical energy that that week's affter out of players,
and Tiger simply outlasted from an athletic ability from a
stamina standpoint, everybody else.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
In the field more than outplayed them.
Speaker 3 (17:49):
I'm not saying Bobby mac is the epitome of physical conditioning,
of course, but there is something to be said for
being used to these these type of conditions. So I
do like the fact that he played college golf through
this area, He's played on these services.
Speaker 2 (18:01):
He knows Bermuda grass very very well.
Speaker 3 (18:03):
He's done great in the Florida Swing, so I do
think it lines up kind of well with this, with
this golf course and the fact that there are different
greens and still Marina, it's still going to be the
straight of grass that you know he's comfortable with. In contrast,
his putting does tend to be his best skill set,
which I kind of mentioned Russell Henley. I'm going with
a guy that's great t degree and not worrying about
(18:23):
putting so much. So maybe I'm spreading my eggs out
a little bit on the skill profiles because that's his
kind of best attribute. But his t green game is
solid in recent recent months, and I'm just going to
roll with the fact that I think it continues this
week in a place that I think he's a little
bit more comfortable at least with the conditions than most
in this field.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
I liked it You're casual enough with him to refer
to him as Bobby.
Speaker 2 (18:47):
Really we text we go back.
Speaker 1 (18:50):
That is that is a power move, Bobby, Bobby Mac
It's going to be your long shot. All right, let's
go to draft Kings Darklings got right back on the
winning track. I don't think I've had two losing weeks
in a row this season. Nick, If it was, it
was a long time ago, lost a couple weeks ago
than forty third out of one hundred and fifty an attorney.
(19:12):
So again, best year I've ever had in DFS. So
let's keep the train rolling here. Yeah, kind of tough
to pick. I was expecting it to be hard to
find some value deep down in the DFS lineups, but
there's some guys I like, let's start with Johnny Vegas. Yeah,
you can call him Bobby, I'll call him Johnny. Johnny
Vegas here sixty four hundred, very reliable cutmaker. He's just
(19:34):
a stable kind of guy. Great price at sixty four hundred,
made six straight cuts, finished fortieth at this event last year,
so he can handle the course. He doesn't offer a
lot of upside here, but just when you're digging deep,
just give me four decent rounds. Don't finish dead last,
so we're just trying to We're just trying to get
some some good points over four rounds. So Miiliano Grillo
(19:57):
sixty six hundred, he's underpriced as well, made the got
in eight out of last nine tournaments. Course history is
rock solid, thirty third, twentieth and thirty first here over
the last three years, so he's got a little bit
of a higher floor than Vegas at sixty six hundred,
so if he gets his top twenty five finish, it's
a steal. And a guy that I struggle with Nick,
(20:18):
I don't. I hate his inconsistency, but Wyndham Clark has
been playing really, really good. This is another guy that's
kind of flying under the radar. Three straight top twelve finishes.
He finished seventh here last year and he's only seventy
six hundred, so over the last thirty days he's ninth
in this field and total strokes gained, so seventy six
hundred pretty pretty big upside mid tier price, so he's
(20:41):
going to be a strong DFS play. And as always,
my full lineup can be found at my page wt
dot bus last al that's the exact same page where
you can get the buy one, get one myself and
Nick Moorman's all of our golf plays for the next
three weeks, all live plays, all PGA Tour plays, and
there's a free digital download that's got the course right up.
It's got the right ups on these players and it's
(21:02):
got the full DFS lineup though, so that's over at
WT dot buzz slash a l All right, Nick, any
any predictions here? You know, it's it's you mentioned the
points and it's like, well, you don't have to to
play well, do you? Do you suspect maybe there might
be a little letdown from some of these top tier
guys that know they're going to advance, or do you
(21:23):
expect like guys like Scheffler. I don't expect the letdown
from Scheffler. Whenever he plays, He's going out there to win.
But I'm wondering if we see some of these bigger
name guys kind of ho hum their way through it,
and yeah, any any thoughts on if that's a possibility
this week?
Speaker 3 (21:39):
It is an interesting angle because Rory is proving on.
I'm surprised more ifeop aren't doing what Rory's doing.
Speaker 2 (21:45):
Right.
Speaker 3 (21:45):
We don't have the starting strokes and the Tour Championship
this year, so every all thirty players have an equal
chance of winning that event and technically being the FedEx
Cup Championship. So if you're in the top ten at
this point, you're you're already guaranteed to be in the
top thirty other than just winning a tournament. Winning money, Yes,
that's always an incentive, But if you're really trying to
go for that tour championship playing three straight weeks and
(22:06):
taking a week off here, I wonder, I honestly wonder
if what's going to happen next week? Right Like soot,
he hasn't played since he open, so I get it
he wants, maybe he's trying. Maybe he's gonna play this
week skip next week.
Speaker 2 (22:20):
Oh, I don't know.
Speaker 3 (22:23):
I honestly this is the first time we're dealing with
this because number back in Tiger's day, they change the rules,
so you know there would be somewhat of a penalty
to missing an event. But now it's kind of back
to that situation. So I don't know. It's a little
bit hard to decide on that. The answer in my
head is tread lightly because it doesn't you know, it's
(22:43):
not like they're fighting for every every point here, They're
just trying to win a golf tournament. I would look
at it this way. Maybe if you're if you're in
connection to win the golf.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
Tournament, you're going right. But if you get off to
a slow start on Thursday.
Speaker 3 (22:56):
It might be more going through the motions the rest
of the week and then just trying to work on something,
grinding over every single shot, just trying to figure out
a few things from there. So pay attention to kind
of where the markets moved after round one, after round two.
You know, don't expect if Scotti's wants. I never want
to say, don't expect Scotty to come back and finish
top ten, because he's always seems to do that anyway.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
Yeah, but maybe don't expect him to come back and win.
Speaker 3 (23:16):
If he falls behind or any of those tough guys
and they fall behind, they might just, you know what,
I'm gonna come back next week and get my stuff together.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
You know. The whole thing was silly with the points
and then they change it in the middle of this season,
which is crazy. But I gotta tell you it's it's
gonna be interesting because you could have a guy like
got her up.
Speaker 2 (23:37):
Yeah, all he needs is.
Speaker 1 (23:39):
To catch fire at the last tournament. You're like, wait,
got her ups? The wait Matsuyama came out of nowhere
to win what happened here? So it should be an
interesting three weeks but we catch covered here on Tea Time.
Don't forget to hit the like button, guys, it really
really helps the YouTube algorithm. And again leave a comment
tell us who you like this week. A lot of
(23:59):
great bets on the board here. I've got my eye
on a couple of top twenties. Russell Henley is obviously
one of them. Nick talked about him. I'd love to
see some of your bets in the comment section. It's
been a great year and we got three more weeks
until we crown a champion, so thanks very much for
joining us. Everyone. Don't forget to take advantage of that
buy one, get one special. You can get all of
our picks for the next three weeks for PGA and
(24:21):
live either of our pages wt up Buzz Slash NB
or w t up Bus Slash al. It's absolute no brainer, knockdown,
only forty nine dollars and insane special that we're running
for three weeks, so make sure you take advantage of that.
All right, that's going to do it for us this
week on Tea Time. Hope everyone has a great tournament.
Good luck on all your bets and take care
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