THE BLITZ | CASH IN BIG This Weekend! | College Football Week 13 Predictions & Best Bets

Welcome to THE BLITZ, your go-to college football betting show for the entire season! Each week, Bryan Power, Steve Merril & Ralph "The Pen" Michaels break down the biggest college football matchups, providing picks, predictions, and best bets to help you stay ahead of the lines.

Introduction 00:00
USC vs Oregon 3:06
Tennessee vs Florida 11:08
Missouri vs Oklahoma 17:56
BYU vs Cincinnati 23:00
Promo Time 30:12
Questions from Chat 35:00
Best Bets 48:11
Bryan Power's Best Bet: UTSA vs East Carolina 48:57
Steve Merril's Best Bet: South Carolina vs Costal Carolina 50:57
Ralph Michaels Best Bet: Mizzou vs Oklahoma 54:20
Recap 56:50

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
All, we are live here on the Blitz Way to
Talk TV, talking all of this weekend's biggest college football
matchups that includes USC Oregon, Oklahoma, Missouri BYU Cincinnati, Tennessee, Florida,
and anything else you want to hear. Rolt All you

(00:21):
have to do if you're catching us live here on
the Waygechuck TV channel is comment right there. If you're
in the chat, we will get to your questions after
we finish our rundown the afforementioned games. Joining me as always,
Ralph Michaels. I understand Ralph recently celebrated a birthday. Happy
birthday to you, Ralph. Us normally Ross Benjamin is with us.

(00:46):
Ross is off this week. He will be back next
week for our special Thanksgiving edition. All but Steve May,
we don't we don't rebuild, We reload here on the
But Steve Merrill I assure you will be joining this
program in just a little bit. But as as part
of the deal to get him to come on, we
agree to let them come out a few minutes late.
And have you know, a hero's welcome. So Ralph, you know,

(01:07):
my birthday again to you, and what's going on?

Speaker 2 (01:11):
You're a pre Madonna, Like Steve Merrill, you just make
your own schedule and we just have to live around it.
So that's all we will do. You know, I want
to mention since we're waiting for Steve here, I will
say this my special last year Brian for my birthday
a cheaper deal. So unfortunately, now that I turn sixty two,

(01:33):
I have a seven day all access special available for
sixty two dollars. I am loading a five percent college
football play right after the show. And my college football
five percents haven't done too bad? How about ten and
one the last eleven ninety one percent? So as we
wait for Steve, if you're thinking about it, the Weekend Warrior,
you know, is always available. We have some other specials

(01:56):
and again my birthday special just sixty two dollars, seven
days all sports, including that thirty five college football play.

Speaker 1 (02:06):
So there you guys, go go get that right now. Now.
I was gonna go to you first, raf I was
gonna get I was gonna allow Steve a little bit
of time to reacclimate himself to the blitz here. Uh
so you're gonna go up first, and there he is.
Steve Merrill, Ralph joined us.

Speaker 3 (02:22):
Stand up Ralph. Stand up, Ralph Michaels. Happy belated birthday
to the pen A young thirty five years old as
of this week, never looking any better.

Speaker 1 (02:30):
We said it was part of the agreement to get
you to come on, Steve. We gave you, you know,
a two minute buffer there, So anything for you, Steve.
We're very glad you joined us.

Speaker 3 (02:38):
Steve.

Speaker 1 (02:38):
Of course we'll bring all the excellent information you're customed
him sing. All three of us are all over the
wager Talk YouTube channel, by the way, constantly with tons
of great videos. So check us out. How about spashing
that like button and clicking subscribe easiest way to show
your support. All right, keep those questions coming to the chat.
We are going to start with Oregon and USC, clearly

(02:59):
the most marque map up on this weekend's slate. Ralph,
I will kick it to you. Before we went live,
you were reading off some great trends that you had
for this matchup. Obviously Oregon and odds on favorite here
in autsin USC having to travel but not traveled any
time zones. That's always been their problem under Lincoln Riley,

(03:22):
but here they get to stay out West. But odds
makers don't like their chances. What do the trend say
for USC and Oregon Saturday, three thirty eastern on CBS.

Speaker 2 (03:33):
Well, you look at their year to date stats, and
the teams have played almost equal schedules. Oregon thirty, USC
number thirty two. When you're looking at points per game
and yards per play diff Oregon number one in both categories,
USC not far behind their number twelve and yards per
game differential and their number twelve in yards per play

(03:56):
the difference, of course, the defense is Oregon number three,
and defensive yards per play USC is number seventy three,
allowing five point five nine yards per play. I break
down this game and the statue we're referring to Brian
are I wanted to take a look at how elite

(04:16):
teams do late in the season. So when we have
two teams that have win percentages of eighty percent or higher,
a conference home favorite of minus three or more is
now sixty seven percent since twenty sixteen, and when we
look at games ten and later, so games ten, eleven,
and twelve, both teams eighty percent are higher. Conference home

(04:38):
favorites of three or more seventy two percent against the spread.
With that said, when I break down this game. It's
basically a playoff elimination game. Well, we'll see Oregon at
number seven would likely fail if they lose this game.

Speaker 1 (04:54):
Head to head to USC.

Speaker 2 (04:56):
So I think both teams are going to have pressure.
Both teams are not very fast paced at all in
Big ten action. USC is number seventy three in plays
per game, Oregon number one oh four. It's not a
fast Ducks offense. They're just very efficient on offense. I
look at first half the first games and in the

(05:19):
first half two and five over under their last seven games.
First half, I expect both teams to run, try to
feel each other out. I do like first half under
here as my free play for the show.

Speaker 1 (05:34):
Nice little interesting angle there for you with the first
half under Steve. I remember way back when in August
I did my preseason Power five for colleg football. We've
already cashed the three win totals we gave out on
that show. We reminded you about that on Instagram, two
of them cashing before Halloween. As a matter of fact,
with over Houston and over Virginia their win totals.

Speaker 3 (05:55):
That was nice.

Speaker 1 (05:56):
The other two bets, of course, we give you five bets.
That's why it's called the power. My other two bets
on that particular preseason show were Oregon to miss the
playoff as a long shot and USC to make the
playoff as a long shot. So one if they remember
that video would naturally think that I would be all
over USC here. Fortunately, I'm kind of upright on market here.

(06:19):
I don't know about you as far as the points
spread is concerned. That's why I thought it was very interesting, Ralph,
what with not just the total, but the first half total.
But I don't like the setup here for USC. They
obviously had to lay it all on the line last
week coming back from against Iowa, while Oregon not only
an extra day to prepare, but they were not tested
at all Friday night against Minnesota just absolutely just destroyed

(06:43):
the Golden Gophers there. So what do you think here?
Oregon does not have a quality win, I would say
on their rest, despite their great their gaudy stats number
one in yards per play margin, yards per game margin,
they don't have a quality win. USC beat Iowa last week.

Speaker 3 (06:56):
What do you think? Yeah, A few things. First of all,
I've cast my one season total win, not my Washington
Commanders under So I'm with you, Love cash in those
mid season That's the way to do it. Brian Power
and Ralph's point about the first half under is interesting
because if you recall that Penn State Oregon game was
like three to nothing in the first half a few
months ago, and then it ended up with like fifty
four total points because you know, it went the distance

(07:18):
and then some I'll look at the side in this one.
Let's start off with my ten thousand game simulation, and
by the way, I'll be doing a lot of free
play videos on these high profile games as well, including
my college football Top twenty five report for Saturday. And
I always give you my projections. It's a ten thousand
game simulation. It's a projection win. It's not a power rating.
What I'm gonna start doing this week, and I'll do
it for the first time ever right here on the

(07:38):
Blitz live on wager Talk TV is also give you
my rankings for these teams, and right now I do
have Oregon as the fifth best team in the country.
I've got usc as the fourteenth best team in my
power ratings in the country. I also give you my
offense and the defensive ratings each week, and these are
both top ten offenses not a surprise. But what is
interesting to me is that USC is coming in sixth

(07:59):
now my rankings. Just a couple of weeks ago. Basically
all season they were number one, so it shows that
that offense has been tailing off a bit, and that
would also favor Ralph's first half underplay, as USC has
been a little weaker offensively here in recent weeks in
conference play. In fact, over the last four games, they
have scored twenty six points or less than three of
those four games, so they've not been nearly as explosive

(08:19):
as they were early in the season. They struggled to
run the ball against both Notre Dame and Iowa. They're
now facing an Oregon defense that's been excellent against both
the run and the pass. And I really think that's
going to be the difference in this game, and that's
why Oregon will win this game and probably by double digits,
is the defensive edge. I've got the Ducks as the
third best defense in the country right now, which is
really surprising. You think of Oregon as a fast paced,

(08:41):
flashy offensive team, their defense is stronger than their offense,
and that is not the case with USC. They're barely
in my top forty right now, and getting back to
that ten thousand game simulation. On average, I've got Oregon
winning this game by just over thirteen points, so at
the current line of ten, little bit of value, more
value at nine and a half, though, there's about a
three to four chance the Ducks win this game by

(09:02):
exactly ten points. It's a very key number. There are
mostly tens out there, but hey, DraftKings pretty big boy
book there. Minus nine and a half mineus a dollar twelve,
So I like Oregon here, especially at nine and a
half or less. On Saturday afternoon, Jacob Hefner in the chat,
join us.

Speaker 1 (09:19):
I'll go to you real quick, breeth, he says, BP
all over Oregon. Everyone knows BP is hedging, is what
he had to say. No, Jacob even worse, I'm chickening out.
I'm not gonna bet this game at all. I'll be
honest with you. I know it's our marketing matchup, but
that's why I'm joined by Steven Ralph, who gave you
those great breakdowns. Obviously we had a case for the
first half under from Ralph, and then Steve says, the

(09:41):
numbers point to an Oregon double digit victory, Ralph, you
want to add something.

Speaker 2 (09:44):
I was just gonna say, Guys, just because you have
some futures, do not change the way you are betting
your weekly college football plays. You can't worry about that.
Those bets are made now. Granted, if you have two
season futures and they're playing against each other and you
want to hedge for that, yeah, I'm sure Brian, you
don't have enough invested where you want to. If you hedge,
it's because it might cost you two bets what you're

(10:06):
gonna lose here, Because there's even if you hedge this
week in USC one, they could still lose the UCLA.
It's not a guarantee if you hedge one game unless
since the final game of the season, that that dictates
that you hedge in that. So be careful. Do not
throw good money after bad situations if you're putting that role.

Speaker 1 (10:24):
Yeah, and they were small bets. Like I said, they
were the long shot bets that I made preseason. Again,
there's also a situation I can't just lay ten with
Oregon because Oregon could win but not cover, and then
I'm really just banging my head against the wall Saturday night,
which I often do sometimes, but that's a different story
for a different day. Guys, keep those questions common. I
see a lot, I see some question of mach We'll

(10:46):
get to that again after we get through the rundown.
But Tennessee, Florida is up next on our docket, and
this is a game I talked about in the midweek
edition of the Power Five. I do not agree with
a lot Tennessee's taking money. I don't agree with it.
Now I know that we're you know, there's a lot
of concern about the level of motivation from the Florida

(11:08):
side Steve coming into this game. Now, I cashed a ticket.
It was that was a BP special. We took Florida
last week against Ole miss Absolutely nobody wanted to bet
the Gators in that situation. I got to admit, last
minute of the game, I was very, very concerned that
Lane Kiffin was going to run up the score and
you know, screw me right through the back door there,

(11:29):
so to speak. But I was remembering in the back
of my mind Lane Kiffin rumored to be the next
coach of Florida. He's not gonna screw over his potential
future employer there. So we got out of there. Florida
wired to wire cover. I got a great number last
week at fourteen and a half. They closed ten and
a half. I see people in the chat, they think
Florida's quit. Steve, I don't know, Tennessee. Here's the stat

(11:52):
you need to know, guys. Tennessee has not won in
Gainesville since two thousand and three, zero to five against
the number of their last five trips to this all
and ten straight up to and eight ats their last ten.
This is usually this game is played way earlier in
the season. I don't know. I guess it's just conference
expansion that we're dealing with here. Why this game is
now being played in November? Usually it was played in September.

(12:13):
But what do you think, Steve, Florida? Is there any
fight left, any byte left, if you will in these
Gators to keep this closer, possibly shock the world with
an out right upset.

Speaker 3 (12:25):
So many things there, Brian, firstchwell, never on live TV
s hit screwed through the back door. You can't say
that it's allowed. And also, second of all, there we go, well,
we'll back it up, we'll edit it afterwards for the
non live viewers. And also, is there any bitte left?
With the Gators. That is the big question for me
because I lean Florida in this game based on value
better defensive team as a home dog. But it's hard
to handicap the intangibles right and my ten thousand game

(12:48):
simulation does not try to predict if a team is
going to show up or not. It's basically looking at
numbers and matchup scenarios. With that set. On average, I've
got this game as a pick. Well, technically I've got
Tennessee winning by half a point on so there is
value with Florida plus four. That's covering the key number
three and four, and there is some value there. And
as I mentioned, also, we're getting the better defensive team

(13:09):
here as a home dog, which is something that always
makes my short list as well in college football, And
while Tennessee has been pretty good this year against the run,
they've been very mediocre against the pass. And the Gators
have actually been an average offensive team when you factor
in their difficult schedule played. Yeah, twenty one points a
game is pretty weak. Their opponents allow twenty one a game,
five point three yards per play. Their opponents give up

(13:31):
just five point one, So Florida is technically a decent
offensive team. They're definitely a strong defensive team, especially when
you factor in a tough schedule played. It all comes
down to if you think they show up or not.
And now I do think that was a tough loss,
a high profile game last week against Ole Miss. They
got blown out the week before against Kentucky. But keep
in mind that came off a narrow loss to Georgia.

(13:51):
They beat Mississippi State, they narrowly lost to Georgia. I'll
kind of chalk the Kentucky blowout loss just a flat spot.
So the question comes, do they still have some they
left in the tank? I think they probably do. One
concern is that the run defense, though, has really been
exploited the last two weeks. They've given up over four
hundred and so actually four hundred and seventy exactly the
last two games over two hundred and thirty rushing yards

(14:12):
at both Old Miss and Kentucky. But keep in mind
those are road games. They are back home. Yes, they
have Florida State on deck, you know, so you are concerned.
Maybe that's the get up game next week. All things equal, though,
if they come to play, I think there is some
value with the Gators at plus four for the reasons
I mentioned.

Speaker 1 (14:28):
Yeah, I would concurr. And you know another thing Steve
is that, oh there you go.

Speaker 3 (14:32):
I was wondering if earlier and he finally does it.
My goodness, Okay, now he's yes, nobody likes the mine,
nobody likes.

Speaker 2 (14:42):
Just so you guys know how long it takes something
in my mind to hit my brain. Steve said that
what ten minutes ago, and he's dawned. Then he said,
stand up, So oh right, it's odd.

Speaker 1 (14:52):
Yeah you're a year older. Yeah, A question I have
for both of you. So everyone's talking about Florida's motivation
or lack there of it. What is Tennessee playing for
right now? They're not making the college football Playoff? I mean,
I guess you could argue, Ralph that that streak I mentioned,
this sort of infamous I guess streak they have going

(15:14):
in the swamp. Maybe they smell blood in the water.
Maybe they're like, hey, let's finally get this proverbial monkey
off our back. Let's get that long awaited win in Gainesville.
I guess that's Tennessee's motivations. But other than that, I
don't know what Tennessee's playing for right now. Either at
this point because they're not getting you.

Speaker 2 (15:30):
Know, you're coming off the playoff performance last year. You
now have three losses. But you look at their three losses,
you know, Georgia, Alabama, and Oklahoma. I mean those are
legitimate three losses. So you know, I'm gonna jump back
and look at Florida for a minute. Florida's been gained
out gained in all but two games against the FCS FBS,

(15:52):
they go to LSU, they have a yardage edge. They
play Texas and having a yardage edge, so two of
the best defenses in the SEC, they outgaineds but they
can't out gain anyone else. You know, you talked about
motivation in Florida. Now that they have seven losses, remember
everyone's goal Florida's goals were much higher than this. But
when a team now has seven losses, they are now

(16:14):
full ineligible unless we're short one and they go by
the AP scores. You know, so I looked and this
is just blindly. This is five hundred games sample size.
If you're off a loss in the FBS and that's
now your seventh loss, you're two five and two forty
eight forty five percent. So no It's not a wild number,
but clearly it's a fifty five percent fad situation that

(16:36):
your goals are diminished. I look at it and I'm concerned.
Steve said he has Tennessee or Florida by half one
of them. I actually have Florida a one point favorite
of my power ratings. But the reason I can't get
to him is the seventh loss. And you look at
that Mississippi game. Remember they played Georgia in Jacksonville, then

(16:58):
they had a good to Kentucky, then they had good
in Mississippi, and against Mississippi last week, their defense was
on the field for eighty three plays and they were
on the field for seventy plays the week before. It's
tough late in this season with a defense that allowed
five hundred and thirty eight yards and a defense that
was on the field for that many plays to now

(17:20):
play another up tempo team that kept me off Florida.
Not enough to get me on to Tennessee off of
Florida as I had him as a one point favorite.

Speaker 1 (17:29):
All Right, There seems to kind of be a general
consensus among US three that their value is on the
dog here, But situational analysis means We're probably not going
to follow the numbers. There By the way, Ralph, we
mentioned Retz Ralph's birthday. Ralph just celebrated birthday. Some kind
words there from David Talk. David is a regular chat
person here on Way do You Talk to YouTube Chattel.

(17:53):
Let's stick in the sec guys, Missouri and Oklahoma. Of course,
at the end of the Blitz every week we give
you guys one free play, one game that we're looking
at that we haven't talked Sometimes it's a game we
have already talked about in the hour. Ralph just a spoiler.
Ralph's best bet for the show is going to be
on Missouri Oklahoma, so he's gonna hold onto his analysis

(18:15):
until the end of the program. Steve, I'm gonna come
to you. Oklahoma off the massive, massive win last week
against Alabama where they were outgained severely. I think the
tendency is to call that a fortune win.

Speaker 3 (18:27):
Certainly.

Speaker 1 (18:27):
I mean Oklahoma played well, but I mean you look
at the total yardage and you could make an argument
that they were lucky to escape Tuscaloosa with a victory.
Now they come home, they're laying just over a touchdown
against the Missouri team that's gonna still be down to
its third string quarterback.

Speaker 3 (18:42):
Guys.

Speaker 1 (18:43):
I know there was some talk earlier in the week
that Bo Bo Forbulah. Easy for me to say, good return,
but he was listed as doubtful on Wednesday's injury report,
so I don't think he's going to return Saturday. In Norman.
Steve your thoughts here. Normally i'd want to fait Oklahoma
coming off a big win like that lay in this

(19:03):
kind of number, but Missouri's quarterback situation gives me a
lot of pasts.

Speaker 3 (19:08):
Yeah, and let's talk about the Oklahoma quarterback situation. You
talked about your future wagers and how you've cast a
few of them already. Probably the worst bet you can
make in all of sports a year in a year
out is to play the early Heisman favorites at like
two to one, five to one, whatever it is. And
John Mattiers, obviously, I don't know if he was the
preseason favor but I know after a few weeks he
was the favorite, and then he had the injury. But
even since coming back, boy has he been mediocre. I mean,

(19:30):
on the season, he's averaging just over seven yards of
pass which is respectable, but nothing crazy eight touchdowns, seven interceptions.
He only has eight touchdown passes in two hundred and
eighty eight attempts so far this year. So you talk
about the Missouri quarterback situation being dicey, This Oklahoma offense
in general just hasn't been as good as expected this year,
whereas the defense has been solid. It's the reverse of

(19:52):
what we fought saw a few years again, when Oklahoma
was a vastly overrated team two three years ago. Remember
when TCU just routed them down there, put up like
over fifty that year. You was really good two three
years ago. It's been the oppostion.

Speaker 2 (20:03):
Now.

Speaker 3 (20:03):
Oklahoma is mostly defense, very little offense. In fact, on
the season, that's seven point one yards of pass is
against teams allow seven point zero, five point four yards
per play against teams allow five point three. Meanwhile, Oklahoma's
defense is given up just four point three yards per
play against teams that allow average five point nine. They're
given up less than fifteen points a game against teams
that score almost thirty a game. This is a shutdown defense.

(20:27):
So if you're worried about the Missouri situation with the quarterback,
it's probably not the best opponent for them to be
facing this week. Here the question becomes, oh, can Oklahoma
do something against a pretty good Missouri defense. The Tiger's
given up less than twenty points a game and just
about four and a half yards per play. I run
a ten thousand simulations, and I do plug in a
lot of scenarios with the different quarterbacks, and on average,

(20:49):
I've got Oklahoma winning this game by just over twelve points.
The current line is about seven and a half, so
I do lean Oklahoma in this one. I would like
it more below seven, that key number. You know, maybe
if we get some clarity in the quarterback situation, we'll
see it move more. It did open as high as
nine and a half, so I feel like it's already
come down a little bit based on information. By the way,

(21:09):
the total, obviously I was talking about two good defenses
open forty two and a half. It's down to forty two.
We're seeing some forty one and a halves out there
as well. Forty two is what we call a dead number.
Forty one is not. Forty one is one of the
most key number, with totals three to four percent chance
the game lands on exactly forty one points. So if
you do like the under, you grab the under forty
two under forty one and a half. Now I lean

(21:30):
Oklahoma based online value, but I would like seven better,
so I would probably wait to see it. Maybe you
get a minus seven by kickoff and it is an
early game New Eastern on Saturday. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (21:39):
Absolutely, So you took the words right out of my mouth, Steve,
in terms of, you know, looking at the total, because
as we were talking about the quarterback issues, obviously, I
think a lot of people are thinking, oh well, how
about an under. Well, the odds makers obviously your hip
to that this is a very low total. You have
to be and one thing you have to be careful
with with these low totals. You guys both know this.

(22:00):
You know, one wacky play could screw you. I mean,
look at the Oklahoma I mentioned Oklahoma getting out gained
by Alabama last week. It was four oh six two
twelve to be exact, Sooners though, were plus three internals,
including a pick six. Those are the kind of plays
that can ruin and under Obviously, it would be very
easy for any of us to write up, you know,
give you a tell you why this is going to

(22:20):
be a low scoring game. I think Steve just did
a very excellent job at telling you why it's likely
to be a low scoring game, but one play can
ruin it under with the total of the slow and yes,
forty one obviously a very key number. So if you
like the under here, guys, bet it sooner rather than later.
That was not an intended fund.

Speaker 3 (22:35):
Yes it was that. It was not.

Speaker 1 (22:37):
I swear to god that was not. That was incredible.
How that worked out. The gators biting, that was unbelievable.

Speaker 3 (22:43):
And that's why it's so beautiful. You didn't even mean
to do it. It's just magic.

Speaker 1 (22:47):
If I wouldn't have talked about the back door, this
would have been.

Speaker 3 (22:49):
A perfect It would have been a perfect show, would
friendly and the kids?

Speaker 1 (22:52):
Yea, yeah? Unfortunately, Yeah, Well we know b Yu they
like they've got a lot offulations and they've got a
lot of regulations on provo and they are a favorite
at Cincinnati. Let's move to the big twelve guys, shall
we market hated BYU last week? Ralph hated him, got

(23:13):
beat all the way down to minus three at home
against TCU. B Yu told the market exactly what they
thought of them. They routed the horse Frogs. I mean
they played it to them. That is a good man.
You talk about trends, I don't know if you have
the number handy, I actually don't, but I think we've
all heard heard it about how great they are at
home at night in pro BYU provo night.

Speaker 3 (23:38):
Great.

Speaker 1 (23:38):
This game on the road tonight, but it's you know,
one of the big trips East JA make in the
Big twelve to Cincinnati, who's very good at home. So
I don't know, I kind of I lean Cincinnati here.
I mean, this is dogger pass for me, Ralph. I
think BYU has lived the charmed life this year, and

(23:59):
I do not want to lay it with them on
the road.

Speaker 2 (24:02):
Well, I haven't been a BYU believer, so I've been
wrong on them a few times this year. So you know, uh,
you know the one game they go into Texas Tech
and lose twenty nine to seven, I wasn't on a
more against them. So we'll see what happens. But Cincinnati
is such an anomaly. I've never seen such a productive
offense with such a slow pace. Cincinnati's offense is top

(24:27):
thirty five in every category. They remember one hundred and
thirty one in plays per game, they average under sixty
yards per play, so if someone can slow them down,
I do look for the unders, and by slow them down,
I one hundred percent mean shut down the rush attack.
Cincinnati rushing for six point one and one hundred and

(24:48):
ninety six yards per game. Now BYU's rush defense is
allowing one forty four and three point seven, but down
the stretch the last four games they've allowed one sixty
nine and four point six. And so to me again
later in the year, you have the attrition. You have
to put away those first half stats and look at

(25:10):
conference only stats or at least the last four weeks
to get a true judgment, because you know they started
the season playing Portland State, Stanford, Colorado, West Virginia. You
know those are all stat patters. I went this route again.
I love the gold sheets first quarter, first half logs.
It is so helpful to look at the running logs

(25:31):
and look how teams performed to maybe if you like
a team, perhaps you'll find a little little better situation.
You know, And in this game BYU first half they're
three and four against the spread. The last seven full
game they're seven and three, almost completely opposite Cincinnati first
half eight and one against the spread. Full game, they're

(25:54):
six and four. The Cincinnati Bearcats with the rush attack,
have gotten off the quick starts BYU. They had a
rush attack early. They've passed a lot more the last
couple of weeks thirty six passes, twenty eight runs, thirty
eight passes, twenty seven runs, thirty three passes thirty nine

(26:14):
runs last week, but that was in a blowout that
they just handed off the ball in the second half.
I actually am gonna go Cincinnati first half here. They're
excited to be here. They're off the home lost to Arizona.
You know in that game they were minus two turnovers
and they got out gained, but they still kept the
game within reason. That showed a lot to me. I

(26:34):
like Cincinnati first half here, to get out and jump
out early. We'll see you if by you can catch
them in the second half, hid.

Speaker 1 (26:42):
Steve, We've gotten some support for the Bearcat side, not
just Ralph but myself here clear this is a BYU
team that the market has not liked, betters have not liked.
We all remember a couple of weeks ago, they're undefeated.
The line gets steamed up to thirteen and a half
against Texas Tech, and they don't cover that game. Here

(27:03):
they are on the road again, not provo. What do
we think about this game? Is this where BYU actually
loses a game?

Speaker 3 (27:12):
Yeah, so I'm actually gonna look at the total here.
My simulation, first of all has BYU by two and
a half, so it is spot on with the line here.
But I do think there's some value with the over
in this game. You know, Ralph mentioned looking at conference stats.
I fully agree with them on that. But even when
you look at conference only, these are two really explosive offenses.
They're both averaging over six yards per play within the conference.
And let's backtrack a little bit. When we think a

(27:33):
Big twelve football, it's BYU Cincinnati. I mean, what a
matchup here that I think of. But seriously, they have
been good in conference play still offensively, and BYU is
a decent defensive team. Cincinnati is not. I do not
even have Cincinnati in my top fifty in my defensive
rankings overall for the season, and that's because the Bearcats
and conference play alone, are giving up over six yards
per play as well. They're gaining almost seven, but they're

(27:55):
giving up six. And I think both teams can score
in this one. And we've seen some sharp money on
the over as well in this game. And I do
pay attention a little bit more of the line moves
early in the week on the over unders, because the
public plays totals less, especially early in the week, and
sharpstew have an edge with totals. So whenever I like
a total and I see the initial line move line
up with it, it kind of gives it a little
more reinforcement. And this one has gone up a bit

(28:16):
already this week. I believe it opened as low as
like fifty three and a half and now it's up
to fifty five and a half. We're even seeing fifty
six at Bookmaker, one of the sharpest offshores. I think
the over is the correct play with the total in
this game over fifty five and a half. Since Andy
by you both offenses hold the edge.

Speaker 1 (28:34):
Right there you go, And yeah, that total's been moving, Ralph,
if you wanted to catch you add something. You know me,
you're my boss.

Speaker 2 (28:41):
I had to go to the database while you were talking,
just so you know.

Speaker 1 (28:43):
For next week.

Speaker 2 (28:44):
BYU at home at night nine and four against the
spread their last thirteen games.

Speaker 3 (28:49):
Okay, there we go.

Speaker 1 (28:51):
I will say this, if you like Cincinnati in this game,
if you think you want to bet, wait, oh yeah,
definitely wait because DraftKings is at two and a half
minus fife, there's a chance that this game moves to three.
I think, so wait, if you like Cincinnati, wait for
the three it may may come.

Speaker 3 (29:10):
Yeah, and Brian real quick on that too. Even if
it was two and a half flat or even two
and a half a little bit to the dog I did,
the risk reward is worth waiting because I mean two's
becoming a little more key, and Ralph will tell you
that than it was back in the day. But three
is king. I mean there's about a ten percent, nine
to ten percent chance BYU wins by exactly three in
this game. So the risk reward is always worth waiting
to get that plus three by LUs.

Speaker 1 (29:32):
We know that Joe public side.

Speaker 2 (29:35):
Yeah. Plus we know Joe Public looks at the playoff rankings, right,
b Yu with one loss Cincinnati with three losses, that's
so much more. You know, we all know that the
AP rankings are bs and it actually gives us value
playing against them. Well, I'll tell you what. The playoff
rankings aren't much better, but all of a sudden, they
get so much low because they have this show and
everyone's carrying on that. If you're looking if you're looking

(29:56):
at a better team, a higher ranking team in the playoffs,
I would better early. If you're looking for a lower
ranked team that you like, I would wait.

Speaker 1 (30:04):
Absolutely all right. So that is our show, Rundown.

Speaker 3 (30:07):
We are three.

Speaker 1 (30:07):
We're gonna get to your questions in just a little bit,
but first, Steve, Ralph and I will be telling you
about what we've got going on this weekend at wager
talk dot com. Good start to the month on a
five dollars Tuesday was unfortunate. We had a bad interception
late from a bad quarterback with Bowling Green. Very upset

(30:29):
that we lost that play. But we're still off to
a thirteen and four start this month in college football,
and I've got a couple totals already up for Saturday.
Believe it or not, I have not done a ton
of totals this football season, but the three that I
have released atfel In College of all one and I
think that's that's one hundred percent last time I checked.

(30:50):
So we're gonna put that on the line early on Saturday.
A couple totals already posted for Saturday. If you're catching
this show live here on Thursday, I do have an
play for tonight. Of course, college basketball in full effect.
I'm doing full court Press each and every day ten
am Monday through Friday with Rob Veno and Adam Trigger,

(31:11):
so check that out as well. Steve, I know you
always have a lot going on. Tell us about it.

Speaker 3 (31:18):
First of all, literally five minutes ago, the Florida Tennessee
total just went from fifty seven to fifty eight, like
a substantial move across the board on the Odds logic screen,
And we just talked about that game about ten minutes prior.
I don't think it's us because we didn't talk a
lot about the total, but it literally went from fifty
seven to fifty eight, not even fifty seven and a
half in a lot of the books. So some sharp
money looks like it's coming in on the over in

(31:39):
the Florida game. And by the way, I will say,
if a team quits like we talked about the conservative Florida,
I think that often shows on the defensive side of
the ball, So maybe that's part of the thought process there.
By the way, if you'd like a free seven day
trial to odds Logic. I do have a promo code
on my page Steve merrillwager talk dot com, along with
some other special offers for this weekend. The best one
right now is the rest November three? What the rest

(32:01):
of November three? Well, yes it's true, but you got
to buy December a little bit of a catch. But
what a great catch because you're gonna want December college
and pro football bowls, playoffs, some of the National title
game at the end. There you know the playoffs. There
are a ton of bowl games obviously, but also college
and pro basketball on a daily basis, four major sports
going right now. We run over a seventy percent all
sports run the past week. It's going to continue through

(32:23):
November into December. So why wait. Every day you get
on board sooner as the day of November, you're getting
for free. By December, the rest of November, all sports
for free, no promo code need. It couldn't be easier.
It's right above the daily free play, and yes I
post a bonus free play on my page every day,
and it is truly the last cut for my best
bet card. You know, best bets on over a seventy percent.
Run free plays my last cut have hit over seventy

(32:45):
percent over the past month. It kind of irritates me
a little bit, but then again, thousands of getting them
for free, so it's a good thing. Go get the
free play. Check out the special offer rest of November
free with December Steve merrillwager Talk dot com, get there, Quicker,
wt dot Buzz, slash sm and also while you're watching
shows here on YouTube, don't forget I've got a ton
of standalone videos for this week. I'm doing every weeknight

(33:07):
college and pro football game for you, including Thursday night
Prime ten and two. This year, we've got bills in
Texas tonight on Thursday. Also have both Friday college football games.
The Thursday night college football game is up now, and
then tons of weekend content as well. So click subscribe
and click that bill for instance. Alerts here on wager
Talk TV.

Speaker 1 (33:26):
Said Steve Merrill. And now we round out the promotional
portion of the program with the birthday Boy, who has
a birthday special. He mentioned it a little bit at
the top of the show. Ralph, why don't you remind
the folks who might have joined us late about the
special You've got going on at your page.

Speaker 2 (33:44):
Last year, If you guys can figure this out. Last
year I charged sixty one dollars for my birthday special.
This year I charged sixty two. Sorry for the increase
in price. Seven day all access. I do have a
college football best bet for tonight on Thursday. My college
run twenty one and eight seventy two percent. And listen

(34:04):
this going back to last year forty eight and twenty
three sixty eight percent on every college place since last December,
my best bets like tonight ten and one ninety one percent,
and oh yeah, by the way, I will have a
college football five percent, my college football five percent ten
and one ninety one percent, and my football five percents

(34:28):
seventeen and four seven days all sports, including the thirty
five dollars college football five percent, just sixty two dollars.
Head to my homepage wt Dot buzz backslash rm UKA.

Speaker 1 (34:45):
That is what we've got going on this weekend. Now,
let's talk about what you guys want to know are
asking about this weekend. Let's go to the chat. What
do you say? Dan Alexander hit us with some questions,
Sean Burley. He wants to know is there a path
to the College foball PLAFF from Missouri if they dominate Oklahoma,
does the committee give a pass for losing? Don't I

(35:08):
know that was spoken about. I think that is a
far fetched scenario. First of all, I'd be sure. I
think we all agree would be shocked if Missouri dominates Oklahoma.
I don't see a path I don't know for Missouri
to get into the College Football PLAFF.

Speaker 3 (35:21):
That's just me, I'll say real quick on this ano.
The NCAA Basketball Committee does consider injuries, but it's a negative.
They consider what the team is like now. So unless
Missouri is fully healthy and they think it makes a
big difference, they're gonna actually penaloze it for being shorthanded
because you're supposed to put in the best possible teams.

Speaker 2 (35:37):
Hell, Steve, look what Florida State happened two years ago.
You're undefeated, you're undefeated, and your quarterback had injured and
you don't to make the playoffs.

Speaker 1 (35:44):
You want to talk about an uproar.

Speaker 2 (35:45):
Yeah, So, I mean they've already made their statement that
without your startup quarterback, you're not going to be there, especially,
you know, especially when this kid is you know, fifty
three percent with a six point one YPA so far,
you know, and then against a good Oklahoma team on
the road, you're not to get more. And then they
play Arkansas.

Speaker 3 (36:01):
So we'll see.

Speaker 1 (36:04):
What else do we have here? Dan in the chat.
Keep in mind, guys, we've got best bets coming up
at the end of the show. Oh little mactionin Adam
wants to know about Mac. This is not the week
of course, there's always one MAC game that they put
on an island on Saturday. I don't know why they
do that. I don't know why they just don't put
all the MAC games of the weekday. Who's watching Toledo
book ball State on Saturday? Even I'm not watching that game.

(36:26):
Ball State is absolutely atrocious. They are one of the
five worst teams in the country. We had six until Tuesday,
we had incredible. Of course, I'm a problem an American
Conference graduate. Both of you guys know that everyone watching
knows that as well. We had great success with the
weekday Maction plays the first two weeks. I agree this
would be favorite or pass wee. Toledo, in my opinion,

(36:47):
is still the best team in the MAC. I know
Jason Kandall always has a history and He's done it
twice this year. He has a history of inexplicably dropping
games as a double digit favorite. He's not losing this game.
Toledo still has a path to the man to the
MAC Championship game. I think they can name the score
against the ball state team that has absolutely zilch to

(37:07):
play for. I don't know if either of you guys
had anything there. If not, we can just go.

Speaker 3 (37:11):
Yeah, I'll say real quick, Brian, and Toledo's my only
team in my power ratings. It's a top fifty team
in the MAC. And I've been doing all these week
night games, as you know the single video, so I've
been covering the MAC as well. And something also that
jumped out to me. You know, when the maxins started
last week or the week before, I was excited because
we had some crummy conference USA, Sunbelt, American, whatever conference
these other teams are in. I was like, Oh, we

(37:31):
got the MAC, you know that. And I started to
realize the last couple of weeks how bad the MAC
has become. I mean, you messed the worst offensive and
defensive team in the country. I mean you got to
try hard to be the absolute worst one hundred and
thirty six team in both categories, and they're going to
drop the FCS sooner than later. Once again, Kent State
the last couple of years was probably the worst team
in the country. So, yeah, the MAC is really fallen.

(37:52):
And I don't know if you have any thoughts on
why that's happened, but it's not what it used to be.
But yeah, putting them on the weeknights is smart because
these games disappear on the weekends. But I do think
Toledo is a one team and I'd have Western Michigan
maybe in my top seventy as far as other teams
in this conference that are competitive, but otherwise it's a
pretty weak conference. This year in Ball State is definitely
one of those teams. It's pretty ugly. I've got yeah

(38:14):
thirty two by the way.

Speaker 1 (38:16):
Yeah, yeah, real quick to answer, you know, why has
the MAC fall I mean, obviously the MAC was always
several steps below the Power Conference and why is that gap? Why?
And I mean I think you can look at it
at the transfer portal and I obviously if somebody's a
standout one of these teams, they're going to go to
greener past years, then they're gonna leave. But yeah, I
mean it. I don't think that's the full explanation because

(38:36):
I mean there is just a The bottom of the
MAC this year is just absolutely horrific. I mean half
the bottom ten teams in the country are MAC teams.
So I mean even a team like Akron is very
who you know, screwed me on Tuesday, is very lucky
that there's you know, notable teams worse in the conference.

Speaker 2 (38:56):
Hi, Steve, I think it's winner playing winner in I
or Michigan, and you're not getting paid at all. I
mean Akron, Ken State, those schools have no money. Eastern Michigan.
You know, you're not getting anybody. You can't pay even
a kid to stay. So everyone they may not be
going to a power for school, but the MAC loses
so many people to those next level conferences. I remember

(39:17):
my last couple of years managing phil Steel Publications, the
MAC and sun Belt were about even. You know, now
the sun Belt is closer to the American Conference and CUSA,
which basically, you know, the sun Belt took all the
good CSA teams, so CUSA now has all the teams
that were FCS teams, the Kennesaw States, the Jacksonville States,
the Delawares, you know, and even that conference, I have

(39:40):
them ranked a little higher.

Speaker 1 (39:41):
Than the MAC.

Speaker 2 (39:42):
So you're taking you're taking a you're taking a conference
that has four teams that played in the FCS two
years ago and you still have them better at the MAC.
That's a sad situation. And Steve old UMass is just
talking about getting rid of football and figuring what's the
best sports for them to do for their other sport
in the conference.

Speaker 3 (40:01):
So they might not even drop down because yeah, I
heard some rumblings at all won the Marry meeting. Actually,
you know, they're all FCS power that they were leaving,
so maybe they're just leaving for good with football. But
the way they're playing it makes you think that's what's
happening because they're atrocious. Trophy.

Speaker 1 (40:13):
That was That was that was. That was a free win,
although you kind of slept walked in the first half
of that game. There was a lightning delay on Tuesday
night when when the minute Men came to Peden Stadium
at the corner of Rich Lived around six't eighty two.
Of course, for those keeping score at home, have you
remember twenty years ago, guys, the MAC they always would
sneak a team and right in the But you know,

(40:34):
I mean it was when I was, you know, still
going to college. You would get a team at the
end of the year. A MAC team would sneak into
the bottom of the top twenty five. I don't think they're
at the end of the top twenty five. I don't
think there's a hope in hell that a MAC school
will ever represent the G five in the in the
College Football Playoff. The way things are going, I agree
with that. Yeah, yeah, there's just no way. It's the

(40:55):
worst conference in America. All right, nothing about the MAC.
As much as I love the MACI or Virginia Tech.
I said it last week that I wouldn't be afraid
to lay it with Miami. They covered I don't like
road favorites. I think most of the people who follow
my videos bill that I don't like. I would not
take the home dog here Tech. Virginia Tech's a team

(41:16):
that is just thinking about next year. Obviously, James Franklin
will be coming to Blacksburg. That's the big news here.
But the other part of the equation, Steve Miami, they're
on the team on the outside looking in when it
comes to college horble play iff. They are hanging their
hat on the fact they beat the Ordre Dame Order
Dames ahead of them. I know Christo Ball is scared

(41:38):
about on at times, especially as a favorite, but he's
already dropped his two games as a double digit favorite
this year. I think Miami can name the score here.
I actually think this number is too short.

Speaker 3 (41:47):
Yeah, so this is a game I looked at based
on the motivational aspect you just mentioned. With the Virginia
Tech hiring James Franklin, I've got a lot of Tech fans, obviously,
daniel Leewan's a diehard Tech. One of my fellow coaches
is extremely excited. He'd been checking for weeks about Franklin
told me it was gonna happen, and it did happen
Monday night. So my first thought was that maybe they

(42:07):
get a little bit of an emotional bump. But then
the more I've thought about it could go the other
way too, Right, they just check out on the season
and bigger picture. Here's what I'm concerned with. I think
maybe the players will be excited, the fans are obviously excited,
but what about the coaches? Right? They pretty much all
know their lame ducks now, which they probably were anyway,
that's a concern. And then you mentioned the fact Miami
needs to win by margin and they still have something

(42:30):
to play for. I have them winning by nineteen on average,
and that does not factor. And they once again any
of the emotional aspects of this. And Virginia Tech is
a team that is vastly underachieved at times this year,
and they don't have good quarterback play. I barely have
them ranked in my top ninety for offense or defensive ratings.
I've got Miami top twenty for both. So this is
a real mismatch. And initially I was saying, well, maybe

(42:52):
Tech gets a spark with the Franklin higher but now
I'm not even sure it's the opposite. So probably Miami,
if you're gonna play it, I would lay with them.
I have them winning by nineteen. It could be more, though.

Speaker 1 (43:01):
Yeah, I like that point about the lame duck coaching
Staf Steve that' to that point is well taken. What
do you think I'm gonna like Virginia Tech next year
with Franklin I can tell you I think they're gonna
be a play on team in.

Speaker 3 (43:10):
Great Higher Sea Yeah, it's a great hire for them
because they're so far removed from word about top five games.
Right now, let's just get there. So it's a great
hire for Tech.

Speaker 2 (43:18):
Yeah, I mean, you know Franklin's Franklin's value got diminished
by half probably, you know, so now all of the
Virginia Tech never could have afforded Franklin, but now they can.
You know, one thing shocks me is that you know,
this is this is Virginia Tech's final home game, so
it's senior night. You come out, you know, your parents
are there, and and you see all that. I'm surprised

(43:39):
they announced this before Senior's weekend, not wait till Sunday.
But that just shows the business now of college football.
You know, Franklin gets announced, So now all of a sudden,
these kids can start going to the portal, you know,
as soon as these bowl games are, you know, as
soon as those season's over. So it shows you the
business aspect that college football took away senior Day and
made all the news about Franklin. But you half to

(44:00):
nowadays if you want any chance in the portal. I
like the under here. You know, Miami's defense doesn't get
enough credit. They are actually number three in the country,
holding opponents to one hundred and forty three yards per
game under their average. And you look at Virginia Tech.
They're getting a game by forty one yards per game
their last four games. They have an offense that put
up three hundred and sixty seven yards at Georgia Tech

(44:23):
two hundred and sixty three yards against Wake. They try
to run the ball, You're not going to run the
ball on Miami eighty two yards per game, two point
seven yards per carrie. In the last four weeks, they're
only allowing sixty six yards per game and two point
zero yards per carrey rushing. Virginia Tech will not have offense.
Miami's fine, just running the ball. Last couple of weeks
they ran the ball forty four, forty thirty two, and

(44:44):
thirty seven times under for me in.

Speaker 1 (44:46):
This game, Okay, there we go, last little total lean
there for you on Miami Virginia Tech. Once upon a
time that was a big game. Maybe it will be
again under Franklin when he takes over Blacksburg. Guys, what
do you think about Pittsburgh, Georgia. This is a hard
call for me. I actually don't want to bet either
of these teams right now, Georgia Tech. Every year, guys,

(45:07):
there's one, two, three, couple teams, a couple few teams
that just have Lady Luck riding on their shoulders and
you have to accept it. Georgia Tech has Lady Luck
riding on its shoulders this season. This is you know,
obviously they're they're not better than Miami, but Georgia Tech
is gonnaet to play for the ACC Championship in Miami.
Probably will not. Pitt Pitt, I don't know what paton Ardoozy,

(45:31):
you go back a week. I think he wishes he
could have that quote back when he opened his mouth
and said, oh, we don't mind if we get killed
by Notre Dame. Because that didn't go well and you
have to wonder what the pit mindset is, or maybe
he was just it was a case of we have
to look at that, and the man was being very honest.
He cared more about this Georgia Tech game than he
did against the Notre Dame game. What do you think, see,
I don't have a really strong feel on this game

(45:52):
because these are two teams that I would prefer to
fade rather than bet on at this particular moment in time.

Speaker 3 (46:00):
Yeah, and I actually have a two and a half
point Georgia Tech projected win, and that's exactly what the
line is. Here's another situation, though, where no matter which
side do you like, it's inexcusable not to have about
a nine to ten percent better chance of not losing it. And
the reason I say that is right now, it's mostly
Georgia Tech minus two and a half. Some spots have
minus fifteen, but there are some major books out there

(46:21):
that have plus three available. By the way, bet Online
and book Maker, two of the sharpest offshores, have moved
to minus three. Even so it looks like a little
bit of the sharply might be towards Georgia Tech. But
regardless of what side you like, here, you're getting either
Georgia Tech minus two and a half or Pittsburgh plus three.
And there's about an eight to nine percent chances game
lands exactly on that key number, a little bit less
than normal because the total is high at sixty two,

(46:43):
so maybe a seven to eight percent chance regardless of
it lands on three. But you get it for free
by just having multiple sports book accounts, So betting one
oh one something that's very important to comprehend. If you're
new better.

Speaker 1 (46:56):
Guys, we are now going to go to our best.
That's Ralph actually right with something else.

Speaker 2 (47:02):
Let me just jump in one second there because I
was I was high on Georgia Tech this week. But
you know, I'm never going to base a play on
a trend. But this trend clearly kept me off the game.
So if we look at game four and later, you're
a favorite. You allowed over six point five yards per

(47:23):
carry in each of your last two games.

Speaker 1 (47:25):
That's it.

Speaker 2 (47:25):
That's the only situation. You allowed six point five yards
per carry or more each of the last two games,
and you're now a favorite. Those teams have gone eighteen
and sixty one since two thousand and six. That is
twenty three percent against the spread. They allowed seven point
one yards per carry at NC State and they allowed

(47:46):
six point seven yards per carry at Boston College. Taking
a favorite with that type of defense is a recipe
for disaster.

Speaker 1 (47:58):
Good ad there, and I think now we are going
to get to our best bets for the show. Each
of us has one. By the way, it hit, lad
If you parlayed our three best bets last week, Ralph
Ross and I you won. That was a monster, probably
all three of our best bets one. We swept the
best bets on the show last week. We hope to

(48:20):
do it again here with Steve joining the program. Steve,
thank you again for joining us. We cannot thank you
enough again. A programming note, Ralph, correct me if I'm
wrong here. We're gonna do the show live on Wednesday
next week, because of course, next Thursday is Thanksgiving. Yes,
one o'clock on Wednesday. We would like to eat with

(48:40):
our families though on Thursday. Well, you know, it's funny.
I remember Thanksgiving growing up. I used to always curse
the Detroit Lions at Thanksgiving. There. Now it's amazing that
they're one of the best teams in the league, and
it's it's so much different. But I'll kick us off
with the best Bet segment and we're going to talk
in the American East Carolina at guys. This is a

(49:01):
game I discussed on that midweek edition of The Power five.
I reposted it live on my Twitter on Twitter X.
I believe they're calling it now at Brian Power Underscore Wins.
You can catch the full video there. One of the
games I talked about was this one East Carolina UTSA,
UTSA has moved from a three point to a two

(49:24):
and a half point home dog, and I agree with
this line move and I'm gonna tell you why. Number One,
it is a massive, massive letdown spot for the road
favorite East Carolina. I know East Carolina still has a
lot to play for. They've got the conference championship, the
possibility of being in the conference championship in front of them,
but they are coming off a last minute win at

(49:44):
home against Memphis last week. Greenville was rocking after that
last second win. But not only do I think this
is a letdown spot for East Carolina coming off that
massive home win, UTSA at home under trailer has been fantastic.
You're talking about thirty two and four straight up overall,
and now they're a dog. How is UTSA done as

(50:07):
a home dog in recent seasons? Well, the answer is
absolutely incredible. They are five and zero against the spread
as a home dog since twenty twenty one, and they've
won all five games straight up. If you're a client
of mine, you probably remember a few weeks ago I
gave out the road Runners as a three percent play
on a Thursday night getting points here at home against
Tulane that's a two lane team that now occupies the

(50:29):
G five spot in the College Football Playoff. UTSA won
that game outright by a score of forty eight to
twenty six, so I could only play UTSA in this spot.
That is my best bet this week. Meet. Let's go
road Runners, Steve, you are up next.

Speaker 3 (50:49):
First of all, it's pronounced bbep. I love that She'll
do that. Everybody. That's the best best nickname in all
of sports. Let's talk about names, though, because I have
a free play video for tonight on Thursday between stayed
in UL Lafayette the Louisiana Raging Cajuns. So I did
some research on this because don Bescreen, the Odds logic
screen still has UL Lafayette, but all the school goes

(51:09):
by Louisiana Raging Cajuns. The official school name is still
Louisiana at Lafayette UL Lafayette for academic purposes, but the
sports has rebranded Louisiana Raging Cajun. So check how that
free play video. And I bring this up because my
free play is going to come up on Saturday afternoon
between South Carolina and Coastal Carolina. And if you've noticed

(51:30):
a lot of the networks, like when they're showing the
scores this year, it said Coastal, so I researched this.
They have not changed the name for either the academic
institution or the sports team. They are still Coastal Carolina
baseball champs a few years ago. They have a fantastic
baseball program, and they've been pretty good in football in
recent years. You know, they were one of those better
mid major teams. Not the case this year. While they've

(51:52):
been competitive at times, and yes, they put up forty
points in each of their last four games, is extremely misleading.
This is actually not a very good offensive team. They
run the ball well, but they can't throw the ball
at all. In fact, they are averaging only about five
and a half yards a pass against teams allow seven
and a half. And I bring that up because when
they get behind in this game is a twenty four
point dog in South Carolina, they cannot catch up. Whenever

(52:14):
you're laying a big number with a team like South Carolina,
you want a couple of things working for You want
motivation to win big, and you want to make sure
the other team does not have that backdoor cover potential,
which normally comes to being able to throw the ball.
Coasta Carolina's going to have trouble playing for behind in
this game, and South Carolina has been a good defensive
team this year. Overall problem in South Carolina is they're
not a good offensive team. And normally I don't lay
twenty four points with the team that's averaging less than

(52:35):
twenty one points. And normally this could be a flat
spot for South Carolina in the middle of the SEC schedule,
but I don't think it is for a few reasons.
First of all, South Carolina enters off of five straight losses.
They've dropped seven of their last eight games. After beating
Virginia Tech to start the season, there was hopes there,
but they've been just miserable since. Yes, they did not
cover as a big favorite against South Carolina State, but

(52:57):
they did win that by twenty eight. Still think this
has blowout written all over it. Even if South Carolina
has tossed the towel in the season, they're not going
to be able to help but win this game by
more than twenty four because Coastal's not gonna be able
to catch up when they get behind. And I also
think there's a fatigue factor in the second half. After
four straight wins, Coastal lost that high scoring forty five
forty shootout against Georgia Southern last week. Traveling now for

(53:18):
the second week in a row, I project a twenty
eight point win in my projections, and I think the
matchup and the motivation lines up as well. If you're
going to play it, lay it with South Carolina minus
twenty four or less. And I say twenty four or
less because DraftKings has gone to twenty four and a half.
Some of the Sharper books are starting to move, so
I like twenty four. It's a key number. Play it
now South Carolina minus twenty four or less. And that's

(53:39):
a time change four to fifteen Eastern because the SEC
Network just had to have that game on Saturday.

Speaker 1 (53:45):
Yes, the unusual four to fifteen Easter. The SEC Network
always with those odd start times. All right, So we've
got UTSA, we got South Carolina, and now we throw
it to the birthday of Waiting to blow the candles out,
if you will. On this week's issue of The Blitz,
I'm on fire with the metaphors.

Speaker 3 (54:03):
I thought you're gonna say returning it to Ralph to
blow it. I was like that is not nice. He's
gonna have I've.

Speaker 2 (54:08):
Gotten no bb for if you're gonna play at Lea's
So sorry, guys, there's nothing, there's nothing coming from me.
But I am gonna say this. You know, Oklahoma, I
even said this earlier in the year. I watched one
game against Michigan, and you look, and they held four
of their first five opponents to a season low. In
non conference play, they allowed one hundred and seventy yards

(54:30):
per game. That's it. But look at the defensive late, Yes,
they played quality competition. The last three games, they've allowed
four hundred and thirty one yards, four hundred and fifty
six yards, and four hundred six yards. If you look
at the last four weeks. This is with Privula hurt
and having a backup. The last four weeks, Missouri is even.

(54:52):
They're gaining three sixty they were allowing three fifty nine.
They're plus one yard per game. Oklahoma is actually minus
sixty nine yards per game over their last four games,
and they've gotten out gained four of their last five foes,
including the last three by one hundred yards per game.
The only team they've won the yardage battle in the
last five weeks is South Carolina. Now it's not going

(55:15):
to make my card, but it was close. I don't
want to play on the young quarterback on the road
making that road start against the solid defense. But you
know he's got a couple starts under his belt. He
started the bowl game last year and he started another game,
so he's not completely in experience. He just looked shell
shocked in that first game. I do like Missouri hair.

(55:36):
They are going to just run the ball, run the ball,
run the ball. Last four weeks they've averaged forty carries
at one hundred and ninety nine yards and five point
two yards per carry. And to me, I think there's
a value play with a solid defense off a confidence
building win against Mississippi State. And remember they have no pressure.
They have three losses, they're not expecting to make the playoffs.

(55:59):
Oklahoma is playing with pressure. They also have LSU on deck,
so there on that we can't do anything wrong stage,
and that's where people like Matier, who's only completing sixty
four percent with an eight seven ratio, starts forcing the
ball and gets in trouble. I do like the Missouri
Tigers here, but again just fell short because I was

(56:20):
afraid to back the young quarterback in a very difficult
setting in Stillwater.

Speaker 1 (56:26):
I'm right, I'll tell you what, Ralph. Because it's your birthday, Dan,
Alexander Norman. I apologize I should have said Norman. I
said still water again. Yeah, I first say that didn't
sound was like still have fever dog.

Speaker 3 (56:38):
If anyone watched, he's a man. That's a great there.

Speaker 1 (56:44):
But because it's your birthday though, Ralph, Dan did some
line shopping for you. He found some plus eights and
we're gonna throw that. That's how we're going to grade
this blitz squad ride. Steve Merrill is landing with South Carolina. Steve,
thank you would again. Ross will be back next week.
Ross Benjamin will be back next week a Wednesday again

(57:05):
one pm Eastern Live now Thursday Wednesday. We'll be live
next week. Ralph, he's taking it with Missouri at Oklahoma
and Norman I am taking it in the Alamodome Utsa.
They are perfect five and oh straight up as a
home dog since twenty twenty one. I think they pull
the upset against East. You should Carolina.

Speaker 2 (57:26):
You should have Steen Steve's face when you said I'm
taking it in.

Speaker 3 (57:32):
Did you see that that's fantastic. I was like, he
can't help but keep putting his foot in his mouth
because I was like, I was like, Ralph's taken and
then the Alamodome part it just b bep. We just
need to use that more often. We're going to clip
the BBPY using this guy.

Speaker 1 (57:47):
Have your minds in the gutter.

Speaker 3 (57:49):
I'm just I'm just talking about wonder Dog came on
an I had a clean head today. I don't know,
I know you always do, Steve and this show.

Speaker 1 (57:58):
Yes, hopefully all of you have a cleaner mind as well.
Now hopefully we've filled it with a ton of information
for this week's college football slay. Again, one more time,
I will remind you we are live at one pm
Eastern next Wednesday, not Thursday. Unfortunately, you will not be
able to watch us live during your Thanksgiving dinners, although
that would be probably a great treat I think. All right.

(58:21):
For Steve Merrill, thank you again for joining us, Steve, Ralph.
As always, I'll see you again next week. Let's see
if we can sweep the parlay for Second Street week. Guys,
I'll see again soon. Until next time, let's cash some
tickets