Total Bases | Beat the Books! Your Daily MLB Betting Fix - Predictions and Best Bets for August 1

Looking for the best MLB picks, predictions, and betting tips for Friday, August 1, 2025? Tune in to Total Bases with expert handicappers Adam Trigger, Bryan Leonard and Tokyo Brandon as they break down today’s MLB matchups with sharp insights and actionable advice.

00:00:00 Introduction
00:01:14 Trade deadline thoughts
00:06:50 Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays
00:15:59 New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants
00:26:14 Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers
00:36:01 Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds
00:45:45 Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks
00:54:20 Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees
01:03:51 Parlay of the day

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:03):
All right, welcome in. It's Friday morning. It's time for
total bases. The trade deadline has passed, so it's back
to normal fifteen games slate. We've got a couple of
day games, a bunch of trades occurred in the last
two days, and it's time to move on.

Speaker 2 (00:19):
Time to start betting games.

Speaker 1 (00:21):
We're gonna talk Astros, Red Sox, and we're gonna talk
whatever you guys want to talk about in the chat.

Speaker 2 (00:25):
So start dropping your games, dropping your questions.

Speaker 1 (00:28):
But the first thing I'm gonna throw out to the
panel before we get into it is how does the
trade deadline impact your handicapping day to day?

Speaker 2 (00:37):
Do you do anything different?

Speaker 1 (00:38):
We just had a slew of roster moves over the
past seventy two hours, So I'll start with Brian Leonard.
What are you doing to sort of combat that, like
or do you do anything at all?

Speaker 3 (00:49):
Well, yeah, you have to take into account. I look
at it from a player standpoint, which teams tried to improve,
which teams are throwing in the time out, and if
you're a player on those teams and you expected to
be Like, if you're one of those teams on the
border and you're expecting to be a buyer and you

(01:09):
ended up selling. Those are teams that I look to
fade for the most part coming out of the trade deadline.
There's actually you know, a lot of people do a
very good job on setting up setting up the rosters.
But even as well as they do, like on Fangraphs,
mister Martinez does a great job. I'm looking at that.

(01:32):
But you know, I was looking over a few teams
and there's a lot of blanks because they don't know
who is going to be called up now. For example,
Minnesota's traded away basically every decent arm they had in
the bullpen yesterday. Who will they be bringing up to
pick those spots? So as the day goes on, we'll
get more information, but it's something to take into account.

Speaker 4 (01:56):
Yeah, I like to the teams that are just fire
sailing all their plays away, like the Diamondbacks. Teams like
that are you know, I mean, capping is game by game.
It's not, you know, unless you're doing futures. Like we
talked yesterday's show about Mariners to make the playoffs. Great bet.
Now look at their lineup, you know, I mean they

(02:19):
got the best hitting catcher in all of Major League
Baseball paired with him and Suarez together, it's probably the
biggest home run duo in all of Major League Baseball
right now if you count home runs. So teams that
are all in and teams that are all out game
by game, you can cap a little bit of motivation
on their sides. That's pretty much all I look I

(02:41):
look at.

Speaker 1 (02:44):
I do nothing. I do nothing other than look at
it as if I look at a team for what
they have that day, and I'll treat it as like
a team that maybe just had some injuries. So I
have updated absolutely nothing. I'm cognizant of motivation, but I'm.

Speaker 2 (03:03):
Putting that in the same way I would any other day.

Speaker 1 (03:06):
So from a day to day based standpoint, from yesterday
to today or the day before today, I'm not changing
any of my ratings UNTI like.

Speaker 2 (03:16):
But I am looking at player availability. So what does
that mean.

Speaker 1 (03:19):
It's like, okay, like, let's see who's in the lineup
right because all these trades just happen doesn't mean they're
gonna doesn't mean certain players are gonna be in the
lineup today. Doesn't mean the pitcher that they just got
is ready to pitch. And the other thing I think that,
like it is worth pointing out, you know, put put
this into the context of like the real world for
a second. Right, Like, let's say, let's say this happened
in the real world. Let's say Walmart traded and employee

(03:41):
to Target or something, right, like, these are still human beings,
you still like you still like essentially got asked, Hey,
go grab all your stuff and you're gonna go work
for the other company. Now, like, there's there's some that
just doesn't happen overnight. A lot of these guys have
to walk in I mean, I'm sure a lot of
them know each other, but they don't know you know,

(04:02):
you might be meeting new guys in a new clubhouse.
Maybe you had a good relationship with the guys that
you were playing with. So for me, it's like entirely
just I don't think the team changes drastically overnight. I
do think, you know, you have to be cognizant of
like what's happening week to week. But again, okay, Twins
traded a bunch of guys, Does that mean they're Does

(04:23):
that mean the guys that are going to step on
the field tonight are not going to be ready to play? No,
but could it mean three weeks four weeks in that
maybe their results are more like a match more a
team that has the roster that they have now. Yes,
So for me, not a huge change on a day
to day basis, aside from player availability. Obviously, if I'm

(04:46):
taking this guy and this guy out of the lineup,
same way if they were to rest guys, I've got
to tweak that a little bit. But I try not.

Speaker 2 (04:55):
To make wholesale changes. And the reason I try not to.

Speaker 1 (04:57):
Do that is because the books do that, right Like
the books are going to do that, They're gonna all
the overreaction is going to be baked into the number
of what happened in the last two days. I think
as a handicapper, you got to slow your role a
little bit and say, this team's probably not that different
like yesterday to today, but like in two weeks, they
could be very different. That That's kind of how I
look at it personally. I'm curious do you either of

(05:20):
you agree or disagree with that, because I feel like
it's it could go either way.

Speaker 3 (05:24):
Well, if the lines makers make an adjustment, it's got
to be important, So I want to be be aware
of it and I will say, you know, we talked
last week about the the Yankees not making the playoffs.
I think they did an incredible job yesterday and now
I'm not nearly as confident about about that because they
really shored up that bullpen. They did an excellent job.

(05:47):
I thought they the Mets, Padres, and the A's were
the big winners, and those are teams that I'm looking
forward to watching the second half.

Speaker 1 (05:57):
Yeah, yeah, go ahead.

Speaker 4 (06:00):
Yeah, it's all game by game. Availability is quite important,
but I look at the motivation factor a little more here.
You know, no one on the on the Diamondbacks is
going out there going, yeah, let's win this one now anymore,
they're all shot.

Speaker 2 (06:13):
So that's a good point TV.

Speaker 1 (06:15):
Like I think, you know, we had this conversation last
week after the Nailor trade, and we didn't know yet,
but if you watched, if you watch that Diamondbacks team
play against the Pirates, like, it was pretty apparent that
the mindset, what like it just the collective team mindset
was not there, and it actually carried right in to

(06:37):
the Tiger series. So yeah, that's a that's a really
good point. Probably just you know, more more of what
you're gonna get from watching the games, watching body language,
so on and so forth, Like it was very apparent
with that Diamondbacks team over the weekend. All right, let's
get into it feature game today. Let's go Astros Red
Sox because again Brian and I were joking here in
the States, we don't really have National TV Baseball anymore.

(06:59):
Every once in a while while they'll throw it on
Fox Sports one ESPN I think has a Sunday night
game till the end of this season and then they're
done with it. So National TV is Apple TV now
it's like the one game the whole country gets. And tonight,
if you if you fire up your Apple TV app, uh,
you're gonna get Astros Red Sox, You're gonna get Hunter
Brown against Cooper Chriswell, Ryan Leonard. Red Sox got a

(07:23):
little criticism for, you know, maybe not getting what people
thought that they might get yesterday. Where are you at
on these two teams? And and and how are you
seeing this matchup?

Speaker 3 (07:34):
I'm saying on our line service, ideologic dot com. They
haven't decided on the starter here. And boss, what you're
saying is Chriswell.

Speaker 1 (07:41):
It's either gonna be it'll be Chris Well maybe there's
like two guys at Triple A that I think it
could be, unless they go like a different route. I
have a feeling they're calling someone up to make this
start that that's what would make the most sense.

Speaker 2 (07:54):
So I just I had Chris Well jotted down.

Speaker 1 (07:57):
If they haven't announced that yet, then then they probably
haven't announced it.

Speaker 3 (08:01):
Yeah, I can't make a big judgment on it because
because of that, the lines some places, a guy lines up,
but I don't know if they were up from yesterday
and they're just waiting. But they've got Brown basically at
one thirty five favorite here on the road to Boston.
Total of eight here, which is which is low for

(08:23):
for Fenway Park, especially not knowing who the for sure
who the starter is for Boston. I'm I'm assuming from
the players standpoint that Houston is probably more excited. Although
I've never been a Korea fan, and they brought him
in made it like I watched everything on the Major

(08:44):
League Baseball Network yesterday and they made it look like
that was the biggest deal. Well, I just I think
he's washed. I don't think he's very good anymore. He's
hurt all the time, So it may be nice that
he's going back to the team, but I don't know
how much of a help that's going to be. But
I do like Brown. Brown's an excellent starter, and he's

(09:04):
going up against a Boston team here that he has
hit pretty well as of late. In fact, I saw
stat went since the trade from San Francisco for Devers.
The Boston team's a much better hitting team than San
Francisco is. We talked yesterday about somebody said that they'd
looked to trade Devers and that didn't become abound around

(09:25):
and we kind of expected that. But yeah, the Boston
fans are a little bit upset. They did get May
coming in from the Dodgers, but I don't think this
is a very good fit for him. He'd he struggled
in La which is a little bit better of a
pitcher's park. He's going to struggle here in Boston. So
I like the future of Houston a little bit better

(09:47):
now than I did last week. And this is what
it is in baseball. I mean, everything changes a week
to week. This was a team that you've been fading,
and you've had a lot of success doing that. Right now,
I think they've got a little bit of a jolt here,
but without knowing who's going to start for Boston here,
I'm just gonna sit back and see if you guys
have more information than I do.

Speaker 4 (10:10):
Guys, go to our pages at wager talk dot com
and see what we have available. We put up free
plays almost every day. I have a couple of four
percent plays out today in Major League Baseball. So go
check out what I and these other two guys have
up today. Take the five seconds and catch our free
plays as well. I think the Red Sox talk about washed.
I think the Red Sox did the Dodgers a favor

(10:32):
by taking a ay Man. The guy's washed. He's terrible,
but anyway, I think Dodgers are pretty happy to get
rid of him. Regarding this game, I still have Hunter Brown,
although he did have a rough patch, I still have
him ranked number fifteen out of two hundred plus starting pitchers,
some of them on IL, of course, but still on

(10:53):
a huge lump of starting pitchers, he's still number fifteen.
So obviously the Astros have an advantage here in starting pitcher,
but in a very tiny sample size, some of these
Dodgers are I'm sorry some of these Red Sox have
gotten to him. Including let's see four for two, looking

(11:15):
at the wrong looking at the wrong one, Hang on
a second, Red Sox. Right, Sorry, I was looking at
the wrong team, Boston Red Sox. Let's see how they
do against Hunter Brown. So yeah, I was looking at
the right team. It is a small sample size, but
let's see some guys I've never heard of. Let's see

(11:35):
toro' connor Wong. Yeah, people who probably won't even be
playing today, so that's not really a factor. I have
both bullpens mediocre doing okay, both lineups fairly even here mediocre.
Don't really know what to make of Boston's starting pitcher situation,

(11:56):
so I'm probably gonna leave this game alone. If anything,
take a Hunter Brown innings prop or some kind of
strikeout prop, but I don't. I don't think I'll be
playing aside here.

Speaker 1 (12:08):
So there's actually quite a bit the Red Sox could
do with the starting pitcher tonight, and I don't I
don't know. I don't think anything they do with the
starter would make me want to fade Hunter Brown in
the Astros in this spot, and that's coming from someone
that doesn't particularly care for this Astros team long term.

Speaker 2 (12:26):
But like you're talking about Hunter Brown. We've talked about.

Speaker 1 (12:29):
Him all year. I still think he's an elite starting
pitching option. Maajor League Baseball. You've got Jeremy Paniel likely
back in the lineup for the Astros tonight. I don't
know if you'll see Correa. I suppose they could do it.
So here's the deal with the Red Sox. Dustin May
is in line to pitch today. Today would be his spot.

Speaker 3 (12:47):
Now.

Speaker 1 (12:48):
I don't think that they may ask him. They may
be like, hey, do you want to pitch tonight? Like
are you ready to do that? I don't think they will,
but it's certainly, you know, if it pitchers, as TV
has pointed out many times, our creatures of habit right,
he may last pitched on Sunday, so he might be like, yeah,
I want to throw tonight. It's my day to throw,
and then he would make the start. If he doesn't throw,

(13:10):
what they're gonna have to do is bring someone up
from Worcester, So it could be Kyle Harrison. Kyle Harrison
is supposed to start at Worcester tonight, but that was
the guy that came out that was the piece from
the Devs trade. I don't know if the Red Sox
are truly ready to put him out there yet. I
know he's you know, he's shown some progress at Worcester
and doing what they want to do, but I don't

(13:30):
know if they're ready to start him yet. So that's
why I sort of had Chris Well jotted down because
Chris Well, I think he lasts threw on Sunday and
he's kind of the guy that's like he's actually having
a great season at Triple A, but he's also the
guy he's been up. I don't think it's like a
huge deal for the Red Sox to maybe ask him
to come up, make a start, and go back down, Whereas,
like with Harrison, I feel like it you call him up,

(13:52):
you kind of have to keep him up just because
that's that's who you got for Devors, Like, you can't
call him up and then send him back down. So
that That's what I'd be looking at for today for
the Red Sox. One of those three guys. Does it
matter though?

Speaker 2 (14:05):
Would you would you?

Speaker 1 (14:06):
Wouldn't you take Hunor Brown and Jeremy Pania back in
the lineup for the Astros against any of them. That's
kind of where I'm at, so I lean toward the Astros. Here,
go ahead, Brian, were you gonna say something?

Speaker 3 (14:16):
No, but I just wanted to Correa said he's gonna
play third base. Is anybody familiar with his playing third
base before? I mean, is this a situation where he's
never played it. If it is, I don't know if
they could throw him out there to do that so soon.

Speaker 1 (14:37):
Yeah, I don't I don't know. I don't even know Iflake. Yeah,
it's a good question. This is This is why this
goes back to my original point, where it's like got
to see a lineup, have to see what they're doing
day to day, right like, just because this trade happened,
you know, the Astros might be like, hey, take a day,
get back. Maybe maybe he'll be available to pinch hit

(14:58):
or something, and then we'll start you tomorrow. The Red Sox, like,
you know, they could use may but they might be like,
hey take a day, meet the team, and then you'll
start tomorrow. So that's what I would keep an eye on.
I'll tell you what though, if if it is Harrison
that gets called up, I think the Astros probably take
some money in that regard. So if you kind of
like the Astros, I maybe just would bet at action

(15:18):
now while you can still get what like a dollar
forty on on a Brown, Brian, What's what does that
look like right now?

Speaker 3 (15:25):
It's about one across the border right now.

Speaker 1 (15:28):
Yeah, Like if that ends up being Chris Weller or Harrison,
which my gut says it's either of those two, I
think the Astros go off like minus one fifty minus
one fifty five because because Brown's gonna get that type
of respect. So that is a that's just how I
see that one. I don't know if I'll play it,
but Astros is enticing. Especially Jeremy Payne is a big

(15:50):
boost to that lineup right now, and he was knocking
to cover off the ball in his in his rehab
appearances the last few days. So it's an interesting game.
All right, let's uh, let's continue on. I'm gonna grab
one at Oh, Colin Gregory likes Astros.

Speaker 2 (16:06):
I think that.

Speaker 1 (16:06):
Yeah, he's saying Astro's money line. All right, good luck
if you play that. Let's grab here we go. Let's
go to mister Nance in the chat Mets Giants please,
Mets going for it.

Speaker 2 (16:19):
Finally got a center field. The Mets were active.

Speaker 1 (16:22):
They made some moves that think they're staking claim to
being a really serious contender in the National League. At
one point earlier this year, Brian Leonard I had the
Mets rated number one of all of all of the
National League teams, and that was for a good point
in the first half, really, until they went on that
swoon where they lost like ten of eleven in the

(16:43):
middle of June.

Speaker 2 (16:44):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (16:45):
I think I might have them back at the top.
I like what they did at the deadline. I think
this team is really really good, and I'm gonna have
to come on and admit when I'm wrong. I think
I was a little bit wrong about the Giants. They
really haven't capitalized on that trade. So, Mets Giants, were
you out in these two teams? How you seeing this game?

Speaker 3 (17:05):
Mets Giants? The Giants for sending out Robbie Ray, who
a lot of people thought would be traded, and he wasn't.
They she didn't get the offers. I guess against Peterson.
Peterson right now about a one thirty nine favorite total
of seven to the over heavy or seven and a
half to the under heavy. A couple of lefties going

(17:25):
in this one. Yeah, the Mets, I thought, did a
really nice job over the trade deadline, so I'm excited
to see that. It makes you wonder right now, who
is really the major contenders coming out of the National League.
I mean, the Dodgers really didn't do much, didn't have to.

(17:45):
They've got so many guys that are hurt. But the
Mets are all in and that that bullpen is awesome
now that in the pitching they've gett they've had this
year and the way they've been able to work that
this is a team be hard to score runs against.
You're going to be able to hit in San Francisco
is a team that just has not been hitting lately.

(18:07):
So obviously, if you're looking at this game, that number
may be a little bit cheap here on the on
the Mets about the you know the one thirty eight
one forty range with a total of seven and a
half to the under. I do like Riby Ray. He's
he's a nice strakeout guy, and he's come back from
his injuries and he's really pitched well this year two

(18:28):
point nine three e RA three point three to two expected,
so he's been really solid one point one four whip.
But when you take a look at his stackcast page.
There is a lot of blue average exa velocity eleventh percentile,
hard hit rate nineteenth walk grade twenty fourth. That's always
been a problem a little bit with the walks for
Riby Ray, the Mets, with Peterson, the guys, you know,

(18:50):
the last two years, he's really coming to his own
this year two point eight three RA two point nine zero.
The last two years, you know, we talk about win.
His losses don't really mean anything. But he's seventeen to seven.
He's doing his job for the Mets. Four point twenty
four expected era though, which is, you know, one and
a half runs basically this far into the season. Last

(19:12):
year it was the same way he was at two
point nine oh eira four point five to six. So
maybe just one of those guys that is able to
beat his expected numbers. Ground ball percentage ninety five fifth
percentile extension ninety fifth percentile. He's six foot six, but
he has a tendency to get hits hard hit rates
in the twelfth percentile. Average eggson velocity thirteenth. His fastball

(19:34):
velosity is only in the fourteenth. His fast pour seimers
at ninety two point three, which is about one mile
an hour low for a lefty does throw five pitches
and they're all twelve percent or more. So he's a
guy that mixes it up really well. I prefer the
Mets here. I think the line is actually a little
bit cheap here going against San Francisco the way the

(19:56):
Giants are playing right now, So that's a I'm interested in.
With Peterson against Ray today, I think it's a little
bit cheap for that home favorite. Yeah.

Speaker 4 (20:06):
The way I break this one down is I first
look at the starting pitching and bullpen, and like Brian said,
Peterson's having a great season. On a curve of thirty,
I have him ranked number nine, so he's in the
top one third of all starting pitchers, and Robbie Ray's
not much behind him. Robbie Ray started out really hot.
I think at one point he was like nine wins

(20:27):
and no loss something like that. He started out really hot,
cooled off a little bit, but I got him ranked
thirteen on a curve of thirty. Not bad. Both bullpen's
top ten, but neither team is producing runs right now.
I have him both ranked twenty two, so that's current form.
Though obviously the Mets have a lot more talent than
the Giants do, the Mets have a lot more run

(20:49):
producing potential. One interesting thing, though, is if you look
at how each pitcher faces the batters they're facing today,
they both have been hit pretty hard, actually, especially Peterson.
So if you look at how Peterson's performed against these batteries,
you have three point thirty nine average against in an
eight ninety one. Ops. It's not terrible, it's not horrible,

(21:10):
it's not really good. I was looking at his outs
over maybe because the Giants are just flaccid at the plate,
but given those numbers, that's gonna shine me off of
that play. So then I thought, well, since both pitchers
get hit pretty hard, maybe an over. But with two
really good bullpens and one lineup not producing, I don't

(21:32):
think I like the over either. So the last thing
I looked at was how who's who's hitting David Peterson
this well, Well, it happens to be Raphael Devers, he's
five for thirteen. And then I looked at who's hitting
Robbie Ray really well, tends to be Starling Marte, who's
nine for twenty five in his career. So maybe I
would look at a prop for one of those two

(21:53):
guys but I wouldn't argue if you wanted to take
the Mets.

Speaker 1 (21:58):
So someone in the chat asked about Soto, he'll be
he'll play tonight. I think he got a day off
just to give him an extra day off. That's that's
I had a sore foot. I believe they just gave
him Wednesday off because they knew they had the off
day Thursday. So I fully expect him to play tonight.
Steve Duke says Peterson is really good. Peterson is a

(22:18):
fascinating sort of case to me. So every once in
a while up here in Syracuse, New York, your boy
gets a little bit of access here, you know, very
it's rare, but every once in a while, you know,
I get in to a Syracuse Mets game, we know
some people and and you know, get down to the
field and stuff like that. So two years ago or

(22:41):
last year, I'm sorry, last year, Peterson was up here
for an extended period of time doing some rehab, and
so I made my way into a postgame thing where
they were talking to him, and he made a comment
to the extent of like he basically so this is
this is a guy that had hip surgery two years
ago in the off season. So he started his season

(23:02):
last year here in Syracuse, and he pretty much came
out and said, he's like, I'm pitching pain free for
the first time in my major league career. He's a
he said, it's been three years. So if you look
at his career he started in twenty twenty, he had
he was pretty good in that COVID twenty twenty years
shortened season. His numbers are pretty good precipitus drop off

(23:23):
twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three, and
he basically said, I have been in severe pain for
most of that stretch last year extended rehab here in Syracuse.
What has he done since at the big league level.
His ERA is under three and he's got a whip
in like the one point twos.

Speaker 2 (23:41):
Right.

Speaker 1 (23:42):
If he had done now, this is a former first
round pick twenty seventeen draft, he's a first rounder. If
he had been doing that his whole career, we'd be
pricing David Peterson like he's Zach Wheeler, right, like he
would be he'd be in the mix like we talk
about him, like we talk about Hunter Brown and these
like guys that have really been like aces because form

(24:04):
a first round pick. If he's had a under three
e er and a one to two whip this whole time,
he'd be treated like a legitimate ace. He's not treated
like a legitimate ace because he was sort of looked
at like a bust for a few years when he
was getting knocked around. But how much of that goes
back to him just being in I mean, dude, hip
surgery for a guy his age is uncommon, so he

(24:25):
must have been in some real pain, Like you just
don't see guys in their twenties having hip surgery. So
the fact that since the injury that he's like if
you just look at his numbers the last two years,
like in my opinion, the market is nowhere near where
they should be on this guy. And then you start
to look at some of the underlying metrics for this
season and it's it's pretty good. It's you know, he's

(24:47):
got I guess some of the expected era stuff is
is it doesn't really concern me because what are they
basing that off of, really, like you know what I mean,
like like I don't know, he's got he gets ground balls,
Like all the stuff is pretty good. Maybe it's because
he doesn't get a ton of swing and miss, but
I you know, I don't know. I like Peterson, So

(25:07):
that was my ability to add some context there as
to like why I'm higher on him than I think
most are. And so yeah, I gotta agree with you, Brian,
Mets are a little short here, go ahead.

Speaker 3 (25:18):
Yeah, He's probably have another with a one point nine
to one ERA at home also, so he's been very
good in Robbie Raid like most people, we kind of
talked about this, let's see, I think yesterday or the
day before about the home road economy for the pitchers,
and Robbie Ray's been better at home than he has
been on the road. But both these teams. San Francisco
is a good pitching ballpark and obviously the Mets playing

(25:39):
a good pitching ballpark also, So yeah, I think the Mets.
I'm just looking over some of the line moves in
some of the games right now, and like Seattle's taking
a lot of money and a lot of these teams
that really played well and had been playing well and
really really look good with their what they've done over

(26:01):
the the trade deadline, I've taken it. I've taken a
lot of money, so it wo not surprise me to
see the Mets take more money as the day goes on.

Speaker 1 (26:11):
Here, All right, let's go to this game since it's
always a huge topic of interest on this show. Gee
Hurt says, I hate to say it, but Phillies minus
one fifty today, I think it's a great price against
my Tigers. A bunch of lefties on the road, and
the Tiger's hitting against a lefty Green not good, no Carpenter,

(26:33):
and the lineup most likely against the lefty. I talked
to some Tigers fans. They weren't really thrilled with how
the deadline played out. So do you like now it
doesn't again, I'm I'm not I'm not gonna like bail
on the Tigers for that. I think that's just very
it's very much like kind of what they've been the
last couple of years. But like, do you think the

(26:55):
team was expecting them to make a splash and they
kind of It felt like they kind of just went
out got some guys.

Speaker 2 (27:01):
You know, I don't know that they like really improve
their team.

Speaker 1 (27:05):
It feels like they got more guys that are just
like fit into this sort of Tiger's team where it's like, yeah,
maybe they could be at Triple A. Maybe they could
be a platoon guy. Maybe they can fill a role
paddock to eat.

Speaker 2 (27:17):
Up some innings.

Speaker 1 (27:19):
Where are you at on that, Brian, Because I feel
like if I'm a player on that Tiger's team, a
little bit disappointed that they didn't improve the team more.

Speaker 3 (27:26):
Yeah, they brought in seven pitchers, and I think the
Detroit strength is they're pitching, so that was a little
bit strange. They did bring in some guys that have
some have some time left where they can possibly use
them in the future. I think they treated it sort
of like how Tampa Bay and I mentioned that yesterday,

(27:46):
how Tampa Bay treats it. So maybe they're just looking
for a little bit of depth. If you are looking
for depth, relief, pitching is the way to do it
because starters, you're only going to use three starters basically
when the playoffs start, you rarely go deeper than that.
So yeah, it's they didn't make any big, big changes,

(28:07):
but I think they like their team as what it
is right now, and they're not going to spend a
lot of money. We talked about that earlier. People talking
about schemes, make it, makeing it going to Detroit as
a free agent. That's not going to happen. They really
have to bring out a lot of money doing that
kind of thing. But Flarity's uh up against Suarez here
sar Az the lefty about a one what about a

(28:30):
one forty eight favorite? Uh seven and a half to
the over, eight and a half to the under. That
kind of thing. Uh. Clarity's splits are a concern. On
the season. It's home games three point three eight e
ra A, road games six point two eight e ra
A one point five to one with compared to one

(28:52):
point one three at home. He's obviously a guy on
the road that you look to go against. And his
numbers when you when you take it every look at
everything overall four point five to one ERA three point
nine one expected one point two eight whip a great
strike up a percentage eighty ninth percentile with rate seventy seventh.

(29:12):
He is good in that. But you can get hit
hard barrel rate fourteenth percentile, ground ball rate only in
the fifteenth percentile, hard hit rate twenty second percentile. So
he's a guy that I think we'll be able to
get hit here in Philadelphia. And this is a pretty
good hitters Ballpark Rangers. Suare has been terrific this year

(29:33):
two point five nine ERA, three point one six expected
one point one seven, whip a lot of red, especially
hard hit rate ninety ninth percentile and heard hit rate
ninety nine percentile and average eggs of velocity very good.
Pitcher doesn't have a lot of extension and as fast
ball velocities only in the eighth percentile. But he only

(29:55):
throws his four sent or fourteen percent of the time.
I love that when you don't have a good at
fastball or said it all along, anybody, any major league
hitter can hit a fastball. So when you've got six
pitches like he does, especially you know he was a
slider one percent of the time, but basically five pitches,
I sinker is changing his cutter and his curve. He
throws more than his four steamer. He is a guy

(30:15):
when I'm looking to bet, he's the guy that I
like because he's not a guy who even though he
did have a win twelve games last year with a
three point four six CIRA, when you take a look
at this Philadelphia starting rotation, he's like an afterthought and
he's got good betting value on him. I like the
Phillies as a whole. And yeah, if I had to

(30:37):
play this, I'd play Suarez at home. Like I said,
you're getting him for basically one fifty one fifty range,
which is really sixty percent of the time. They're saying
that Philadelphia is going to win this game, especially the
way that True Detroit has played over the last month
or so. I prefer Philly here. I'd leave the chimp.

Speaker 4 (30:58):
Ain't no way I'm playing Philly in this. There's a
couple of stats here that really worry me to if
I were to take Philadelphia here, and I'm not for sure,
Flarity has absolutely dominated these batters Swarber, Harper, I expect
nothing from them today against Flarity. If you look at

(31:18):
Suarez's era at home, it's four plus and against these batters.
In his career, he has a three seventy five average
against in a nine to twelve ops. Again, he's been tagged.
There is one play I like here, it's the ranger
Suarez hits allowed over four and a half. I think
for sure the Tigers are going to get at least
five hits off Suarez here. Well, nothing's for sure in

(31:40):
sports betting, so I shouldn't say things like for sure
and Locke and things like that. But the Tigers have
had double digit hits in their last two games, and
uh Suarez has allowed seven or more in a few
of his last starts. So I think Tigers to get
five hits here is a lot safer than taking them
on the money line. Although I do think the Tigers

(32:00):
win the game. You think again, okay, oh sure, yeah,
they're the best team in MLV.

Speaker 3 (32:08):
Still well, yeah, record.

Speaker 1 (32:12):
I have some conflicting thoughts here, Like, I don't I
don't see why you would think that. Why would Harper
and Shober have no chance against Flaarity? They maul right
handed pitching like, and it's just I mean, this is
Jack Flarity's good. He's not He's not elite, he's good. Like,
I'm not saying that I really want to fade him
at this price. I don't really want to fade the

(32:32):
Tigers right now, because I think the Tigers got their
got their kind of bad run out of them. So
I think I think they're sort of on the way
back up. They're playing good ball. I asked the rhetorical
question of like, you know, was was maybe the team
a little bit disappointed that they didn't make a bigger splash,
but I do feel like the trade deadline what the
Tigers did was probably a result of a J. Hint saying, well,

(32:54):
I'd like this, I'd like another, I'd like another starter
to eat up innings. They got Paddick. I'll take a
couple of bullpen arms. But as I'm like a literal god,
mixing and matching is as good as no one is
better in Major League Baseball right now would sort of
like mixing and matching. And I do think Hinch maybe
looked at that bullpen and said, you know, I don't
have the confidence that I had last year, maybe like

(33:16):
going two innings here or three innings there with some
of the guys this year.

Speaker 2 (33:19):
So you know, they grabbed.

Speaker 1 (33:21):
I think the reliever from the Braves, like you know,
Sean makes a good point which I pulled up on
the thing like Carpenter out of the lineup against the
lefty is irrelevant. He's always going to be out and
then come into the game later, So go ahead. Brian
would would.

Speaker 3 (33:34):
Totally disagree with that. You've got a guy that's all
gonna get four at bats and you're going to bring
it you're only going to get two at best, why
don't they bring in another lefty reliever while he's in there,
he's going to get one at bat. It's I don't,
I don't. I want want him to play the entire
game is what I want.

Speaker 1 (33:54):
So my question, I guess follow up would be the
the Tigers have been against left handed pitching this year though,
so clearly they like they they're he's pushing some of
the right buttons when it comes to playing guys, not
playing guys, platooning guys, because the Tigers haven't been bad
against lefties, so, like you know what I mean, Like
that's that's where it's like, Man, I see some short

(34:16):
shortcomings on this Tigers team. But aj Hinches is that guy.
And that's the thing, Like I don't like betting against
aj Hinch because he is as good as a manager
and we're getting a crunch time.

Speaker 2 (34:28):
I still think the Tiger's gonna run away with this division.

Speaker 1 (34:31):
Now, I don't love them in this series on the
road in Philly, They're not gonna get swept.

Speaker 2 (34:37):
I don't know. If this is a tough game, I'll.

Speaker 1 (34:39):
Move it along because I really don't have a better
opinion than that.

Speaker 3 (34:42):
Go ahead, Brian, you said the Tiger's been runningway with
the division. I like the job that Kansas City has done.
Kansas City has set themselves up. You know, they were
a little bit behind right now. But uh, they made
some really nice moves during the trade deadline.

Speaker 1 (34:57):
Yeah, they they definitely did. I just think it would
be a massive It would take a lot for them
to get back into the mix there, Yeah for sure,
but yeah, they go ahead.

Speaker 4 (35:10):
TV Flarity has a one sixty one average against in
the six fifty six ops against in a huge sample
size against these batters. So I think good.

Speaker 3 (35:23):
Because he's terrible on the road.

Speaker 4 (35:26):
We'll see.

Speaker 1 (35:26):
That was when he was that when he was a
card That was when he was a cardinal and he
was good. Like he's I mean, like great, he's good.

Speaker 4 (35:31):
Now you want to take those numbers and lay one
fifty with the Phillies against the I.

Speaker 2 (35:37):
Think is like a number three starter in the big
leagues right now.

Speaker 1 (35:41):
He's he's better.

Speaker 4 (35:42):
Than in my opinion.

Speaker 3 (35:44):
But oh no way here, there's no doubt.

Speaker 4 (35:48):
We'll see, Okay, I could be wrong.

Speaker 3 (35:50):
A little a little fun on the show, a little argument.

Speaker 1 (35:55):
Moving on, Robert s says, I wonder if the Braves
push Elder into the fifth inning after blowing up their
pen yesterday, his out is over fifteen or his out
prop over fifteen and a half is only minus one
on nine. So we should talk about this game because
it's a day game. We've got Friday Day baseball. Reason being,
these two teams are going to play on a racetrack tomorrow,
so they're going to play a day game today. If

(36:18):
you don't know what I'm talking about, they're playing tomorrow's
game at Bristol Motor Speedway in front of like ninety
thousand people, so that should be fun. So they're gonna
do a little getaway day so they can get down
to Tennessee and it gives us day baseball today. Brian
Leonard so very excited about that, Braves Reds. And then
I guess we'll leave Tokyo. Brandon's kind of a resident

(36:38):
out prop expert, so we'll leave that one for him.
But are you getting involved this afternoon Brave's Reds.

Speaker 3 (36:44):
Yeah, there's actually two to gay day games today Ballborn
Chicago Cubs are playing. Everything else is at night. You
say they're playing on a racetrack Yesterday, I was at
the Aces game or not the Aces game, the Aviator's
game last night, so I didn't get a chance to watch.

Speaker 1 (36:58):
It tomorrow tomorrow is the racetrack game, Yes.

Speaker 3 (37:01):
Yes, but they looked like they played on a racetrack yesterday.
Scored sixteen runs in one inning. That the way these
teams bullpens were yesterday. Yeah, I could see another higher
scoring game here because that it did open nine to
the over. Now it's a little bit nine and a
half to the under mood slightly, but you've got Elder

(37:22):
against Singer. Singer's about it looks to be about a
one thirty five favorite total of nine and a half
a little bit to the under here, but yeah, both
of these teams yesterday. In fact, there was and we
encourage everybody, as Brandon talks about, to get into the
replay and talk about the games. And there was a

(37:44):
general somebody in there that talked about he thought the
the Braves are going to have a lot of success yesterday.
He projected them to pick hit four home runs. They
scored twelve runs without a home run. And then I
made a comment, I said, how often do you see
that in a baseball game a team will score eleven
twelve runs without any long balls at all. That was

(38:07):
a hitting exhibition yesterday, Singer against Elder here. So yeah,
it's by the way, I've got a five percent play
going today. I've already had, I've already posted it. I
don't put out many five percent, so I do have
that up right now. And I also have a free
play up and we've won six straight free plays, so
hopefully we can get you another winner there. But Rice

(38:31):
Elder obviously has not looked very good. In fact, he's
been really poor this year six point twenty nine ERA
after that six point five to two ERA last year,
and they have decent sample sizes. Last year was forty
nine innings this year eighty seven expected the RA five
point eighty five one point sixty one whip off of

(38:51):
a one point sixty three the last year. Ground Ball
percentage is the only thing he's good at eightieth percentile
in that regard, which is important when he played in Cincinnati,
and it is a great home home run hitting park,
although as I mentioned yesterday, twelve runs no home runs
expected DRA fourth percentile expected betting the average second. He's

(39:13):
a guy I'm looking to fade, and if he does
get more than five and a half innings here, that
means it's a high scoring ball game. Braddy Singer four
point six ERA, four point five to one, expected, one
point three to three in the whip, his extensions in
the ninety first percentile. He's six foot five, but everything
else is blue. So we've got two pitchers here that

(39:34):
I think are very hittable in a ballpark that is
very hittable. And well, we know these teams can score.
They've been able to score in the past. And as
much as the Atlanta pitching staff worries me, he's still
got some really good hitters here. They even got four
hits out of their second basement, which I think is

(39:55):
the first time all season he's probably got you know,
three or more. He's having a terrible season, But you know,
at nine and a half here in Cincinnati, with this
two pictures, I kind of like the over here. These
score ten runs and you get yourself a victory, and
that's a root for the hitting to continue, like I
did yesterday.

Speaker 4 (40:16):
Definitely cannot argue with that. I like, I don't like
either one of these pictures, and I especially don't like
how Singer has has fared against the batteries he's facing today.
What I really like about the over in this is
both bullpens are playing really bad right now. I got
Atlanta ranked twenty eighth and Cincinnati ranked twenty four out

(40:40):
of thirty in current form. Not good current form, and
that's not even including yesterday's game because my stats are
excluded the day before, so there's no not too much
recency bias. So yeah, I see an over here too.
I did find a play that when I was scouring
through the stats. Fortunately, I'm on Japan time, so right

(41:03):
when the numbers come out, I have plenty of time
because I'm still awake while you guys are all sleeping,
and I can comb through the stats and Atlanta's team
total in the first five over one and a half.
I think it's a great play given the fact that
they just crushed it yesterday. I think I think they
can get the singer for at least two runs at
the midpoint of this game. I'd like to make that

(41:23):
my parlay leg, but I don't know if people can
get that, so might be too complicated. So is that
fair to make that my parlay leg?

Speaker 2 (41:33):
If not, what did you want to make a TV?
Sorry say that again.

Speaker 4 (41:37):
Atlanta team total first five over one and a half.

Speaker 3 (41:41):
The DraftKings is the only one that has the one
and a half right now in its finus one sixty six. Yeah,
the other places are two and a half under one
sixty or so, so whichever you choose, but it's only
available DraftKings at one and a half right now. Okay,
you know.

Speaker 1 (41:58):
That might that'll probably be to for people to get
in because.

Speaker 4 (42:02):
Okay, uh, let's do Let's do Atlanta over four and
a half then.

Speaker 2 (42:07):
Team total full game.

Speaker 4 (42:08):
Yes, yes, I think what are.

Speaker 1 (42:12):
We seeing that at Braves team total over four actuals?

Speaker 3 (42:16):
You're actually getting at money. Yeah, it's I'm looking at
uh under one seven, so it's pretty close to uh
plus one oh five or something plus one oh five plus.

Speaker 4 (42:33):
Yeah, that's what I see.

Speaker 1 (42:34):
All that would be my leg Yeah, I I couldn't help,
but like think when I was when I when I
saw this matchup pop up, and I'm doing my work earlier,
I'm I'm like, man, two months ago, I would have
had a huge play on the reds here three months ago,
like with knowing how knowing that I was high on
Singer coming into the season, and I've been anti Rice

(42:56):
Elder for a very long time. Coming off of a
loss like this would have been and big play for
me a few months ago. But I've just lost so
much faith than Brady Singer at this point that I
just don't know that I can lay a dollar thirty
with him, which is just crazy to think because coming
into the season, I thought he was going to have

(43:16):
you know, he was the guy that came over they
traded him for Jonathan India. I felt like, with the
Reds pitching coaches and tweaking his pitch mix, that he
was going to be really good this year, and he
just hasn't been. So it's even though I kind of
want to make a case for the Reds, it's very
difficult to do that at the price and sort of
with you know, with what Singer's kind of been so

(43:37):
far this year, it's hard to disagree with the over
you talk about like bullpen availability. And then you know,
someone asked me on Twitter just now in a comment,
so I'll bring it up. Can you talk about tomorrow's
game because it's in their neck of the woods at
the Speedway.

Speaker 2 (43:55):
I mean, I would just watch how this game plays out.

Speaker 1 (43:57):
You might be in line for an over tomorrow tomorrow,
and of course Major League Baseball wants that they love
to see fireworks, and you know, it seems like every
time they have these type of games, they're like tilted
to being a little bit more high scoring. Now, I
wouldn't be surprised to see the books hang a ridiculous
number to go over in that game.

Speaker 2 (44:17):
So I don't know if it'll be a good bet.

Speaker 1 (44:18):
But again, it's just it just goes back to what
you two are saying. Kind of feels like there might
be runs throughout this series, right because we just saw
a twelve eleven game yesterday and there's really nothing to
think that there won't be some more offense today. To
go to Roberts' comment, the initial comment, Yeah, like they
may try to push Elder in this game.

Speaker 2 (44:37):
I don't know if that's very smart. Red should be
able to handle him.

Speaker 1 (44:41):
So I think you're only getting that over fifteen and
a half outs if he's somewhat effective, and I have
zero confidence in him being somewhat effective.

Speaker 3 (44:48):
It's such a high game, he'll go longer because you're
just trying to keep your team in the game. So
like we think that, yeah.

Speaker 1 (44:58):
It's a great point and it's it's I don't handicap
that market because I would not have looked at it
that way. So that's a very good point, Brian. Yeah,
if there's back and forth scoring, then they might just say, hey,
like just try not to give up fifteen runs in
an inning and keep us in this game to the
to the later portion of the of the game.

Speaker 2 (45:14):
So interesting stuff.

Speaker 1 (45:17):
But yeah, I have a hard time talking anyone here
off of anything runs related.

Speaker 2 (45:23):
So TV you, I hope your play gets there. Can't
argue with it at all.

Speaker 1 (45:27):
Over four and a half, Braves team total over four
and a half the first leg of Friday's parlay, and
there's plus money there, so might be on our way
to one of those six to one jobs that we
kind of need, you know after although we hit one
the other day, still up eight eight point four units
on the season, so we're doing all right there.

Speaker 2 (45:47):
Titan CT, that's my guy.

Speaker 1 (45:49):
He's been watching my stuff since before I was even
at wager Talk, So anytime I see Titan CT in
the chat, I got to give him a shout out.
He says, kind of like the A's today. I kind
of like the is today too, Brian Leonard, what do
you think a's Diamondbacks?

Speaker 2 (46:06):
Let me, I think we've got Lopez.

Speaker 1 (46:08):
Yeah, oh, I think this is the I think this
is Anthony d Scalfini speaking of the Reds. That's that's
a blast from the past right there. So yeah, d
Bac says.

Speaker 3 (46:19):
Yeah, according to our website, we have nobody decided yet,
so I yeah, I'll pass on it for now until
I know who the starters are.

Speaker 4 (46:32):
Well, you know what I might change? My th is
that allowed?

Speaker 1 (46:39):
Man?

Speaker 4 (46:40):
Looking at this, I can't hear you, Adam, I think
you're muted.

Speaker 1 (46:45):
Yeah. Sorry, my dog's were barking. I said, you had
the win the other day with the Red Sox and
then you chan't. I feel like it's a bad.

Speaker 4 (46:50):
I'm not changing, but man, athletics look good in this one.
Uh not just the the what motivation or lack thereof
of the Diamondbacks knowing that their entire team is being
dismantled and management has no faith in them. But you know,

(47:11):
these guys are still out there playing for contracts. But man,
you know when your whole team just gets you know,
deep pants, and you have nobody in your lineup and
you have no good starters, I mean, it's it's just
very demoralizing. I have the Diamondbacks batting twenty ninth out
of thirty, and I got their bullpen at eighteen out
of thirty. So conversely, I got the Oakland or the

(47:36):
Athletics batting fifth, and I got their bullpen ranked eighth. Lopez, Yeah,
he's just He's just an inning Zeter kind of guy.
I mean, he's not great, he's not bad. He doesn't
stand out, he doesn't really get bombed too bad, but
he doesn't really have any master games or anything. I
got him ranked thirteen out of thirty. Surprisingly, I didn't

(47:57):
think he would be that high, but he is. I
think he'll handle them well enough. He might give up
two or three yearned runs in five innings, but that
should be good enough to take care of the Diamondbacks here,
given their poor bullpen in there and how bad Oakland
is or the A's are clobbering the ball right now.
So yeah, I love the A's here. What are they

(48:19):
minus one twenty or something. I think it's a steal.

Speaker 2 (48:24):
Yeah, So I was just doing some quick All of
the UH.

Speaker 1 (48:29):
DraftKings has the scal Fienie listed at this point, so
I'm gonna like trust that that's probably pretty accurate, you know,
and just knowing what like, so, I believe this would
have been Merrill Kelly's spot in the rotation. So they
obviously can't use him right because he's not on the
team anymore. So my guess is, my guess is it's
probably the Scalpini.

Speaker 2 (48:50):
So I was. I gotta be honest, I couldn't believe.

Speaker 1 (48:52):
Earlier this year he popped up at scrant and the
Yankees signed him.

Speaker 2 (48:58):
I don't think.

Speaker 1 (48:59):
I don't think I was he out of baseball last year?
Did he pitch at all?

Speaker 4 (49:04):
Like?

Speaker 1 (49:04):
I think he maybe had like a long term injury,
injury that kept him out for a while. I was
shocked when I saw him in a triple A start, Brian,
do you do you know, like what was he out
for like a full year?

Speaker 3 (49:17):
Off the tip of my head, I don't know. So
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (49:24):
I mean, the reason I the reason I asked, I mean,
this is a guy that has been around for a
long time. He made his major league debut back in
twenty fourteen. I remember those those years where the Reds
really thought they had something in him. I remember him
making his debut for the Reds, and they thought he
was going to be a really good pitcher, kind of
had his career derailed by injuries. I remember him coming

(49:46):
back earlier this year with Scranton, and I was just like, man,
this is this is what they're gonna try. This is
what the Yankees are trying to do right now. I
didn't I didn't really understand, you know, that move. And
then all of a sudden he probably you know, gets
d F eight or whatever, and then the Diamondbacks grab
him and suddenly he's like in their bullpen. He actually

(50:06):
threw a pretty good bullpen out in the other day
two point eight one EER, so both from from the
bullpen for Arizona.

Speaker 2 (50:13):
Since being called up on July first, two.

Speaker 1 (50:15):
Point eight one ERA, he's got a one point nine
to six batting average against the zero point nine to
four whip. So it's pretty good stuff right there. But
that's more long relief mop up duty. Two innings here,
three in's here, three inning's here, four innings here. I
don't really trust him as a starter. And then you
got this A's lineup man, who is when they get

(50:37):
a right handed pitcher and they're kind of rolling a
little bit.

Speaker 2 (50:40):
Pretty dangerous, So TV, I'm I'm with you.

Speaker 1 (50:43):
I think the A's are are just a tough team
to go against right now, just with sort of how
they're playing, and this is a type of pitchure that
they could really sort of knock around. So I don't
know if I'm gonna what I'm gonna do with that,
per se, but I kind of lean A's as well.

Speaker 3 (51:00):
Truth quick, Oh sorry, go ahead, I just want I
just want to let you know that he did not
pitch in the majors last year. In twenty twenty three,
he had eighteen starts ninety nine innings, and this year
he's just got the one start, but he has had
eight appearances.

Speaker 4 (51:19):
And I remember, just my two cents real quick, I
thought this line would be minus one sixty, minus one eighty.
So I think it's the election.

Speaker 1 (51:29):
Yeah, I should be mine.

Speaker 3 (51:31):
Both teams are very young. There's not like Arizona came
into the season. I mean, they they've had success lately,
but they've got so many young guys on this team.
You're you're you're writing them off, I believe too soon.
Uh And and the A's are a very young team
as well. And keep in mind the A's just traded
away their terrific closer and their shortstop is injured. So

(51:56):
the so they got I love the trade they got
back for debris, debris or whatever. But he's not He's
in lowe. He's in Single A right now, so it's
gonna be a while to he makes the team a
year or two or whatever. So, yeah, DA's aren't a
whole lot better in Arizona right now. I understand why
the line is where it is.

Speaker 2 (52:16):
Yeah, line line makes sense.

Speaker 1 (52:18):
I I mean, I do think there's a pitching edge
here for the A's for sure. That being said, I
would look for the Tyler Lockley or Diamondbacks debut tonight.

Speaker 2 (52:29):
He that was a great trick.

Speaker 1 (52:30):
They sort of they sort of fleeced the Mariners in
my opinion, for a two month Gino Suarez rental. They
got back a reliever, and they got back Tyler. Tyler
Lockley is having a great season at Triple A. He
he just hasn't the Mariners just haven't had a spot
for him. But he has been pounding the ball at
Triple A. He is more than ready to get his
shot in the big leagues. My guess is he's in

(52:51):
the lineup tonight for the Diamondbacks, batting foth or fifth.
I think they're just gonna put him in the cleanup
spot or what they'll put him wherever Gino Suarez was
hitting in the lineup. They're not gonna like mess up
their lineup construction that much. He's just gonna be like
fourth or fifth, and they're gonna just they're gonna trot
him right out there. He's gonna play every day as
far as as far as I know. So again, I'm

(53:12):
not as I said last week, I think Arizona might
surprise some people, Like now that the dust is settled,
some of these young guys we'll see, Like I think
Jordan Lawler's hurt right now. If they could get him
back and get him playing every day, I think he
could be a boost. So I'm gonna probably pass on
this one. But I do not want to back these
Scaffini as a starter.

Speaker 2 (53:32):
I could.

Speaker 1 (53:32):
I could see him potentially getting roughed up. I just
maybe it's because I watched too much of him at
Triple A, But there was a couple of outings at
the Scranton where he got absolutely bombed. As a starter
earlier this.

Speaker 3 (53:43):
Year, Bryan leerin.

Speaker 2 (53:44):
I'm gonna give it. I'm gonna give you the floor.

Speaker 1 (53:46):
Do you want to suggest a game and maybe you
know that you might want to put as the parlay
leg or has there been one we talked.

Speaker 2 (53:52):
About already that you're kind of looking at.

Speaker 3 (53:54):
Yeah, I gotta go back to that Mets game at
home against Ray San Francisc go offensive struggle in the
Mets have not really knock to cover off the ball
either lately. But I think that I really like what
they've done in the bullpen. Peters has done. The guy
who's going to give you a tremendous about of length,
but he goes he can go five innings, and they've

(54:16):
got so many guys in the bullpen they could really
shut down the San Francisco offense. I'll take the Mets here.
They're roughly let's go at one forty. You can get
better than one forty, but let's go one forty here
on the Mets to win that game over San Francisco.

Speaker 1 (54:34):
All right, So second leg of our parlay, will we
met minus one forty.

Speaker 2 (54:40):
I'll throw a game out.

Speaker 1 (54:41):
I mean, let me go to my list of games
that we haven't talked about yet that I have opinions.
I'll throw one out. This will get the everyone jazzed
up here, certainly the three of us, because we kind
of like, I feel like we're on the same page
regarding this a little bit. I want to talk Mariners,
Yankee or Mariner Sorry, excuse me, Marlins, Marlin, Yanks. Brian Leonard,
you said you liked what the Yanks did at the

(55:03):
trade deadline. I'm going to ask you a kind of
a counter question to that. Do you think this Yankees team,
after what they've done, is an elite team now or
are they still in that sort of cut below trying
to play their way up.

Speaker 3 (55:16):
Well, they're not an elite team because I think the
bottom of the order as some holes. I like the
move bringing in the fast guy from Tampa Bay. It
was actually, if you've watched that that game, he's in
the he's in the dugout and shaking hands with people

(55:37):
are going, what the hell's going on? And then he
ends up having to walk across the field. There's the
second time this has happened this week where a player
got traded to the team they're playing. But Volpi's not
a guy I really like, So they're gonna send him
down to the miners. This guy down to the miners,
and but he wouldn't surprise me. He's the starting shortstop
for them pretty soon. So yeah, the the I don't

(55:59):
know if they're elite. I still think Seattle is a
better team than they are. But I'm feeling a little
bit better for the Yankees than I did a week ago.
And we'll see when Judge comes back. If he comes
back on time, then they're right back where they were.
But we're getting the Yankees against against Junk going forward

(56:21):
is rode On against junk rodin the lefty current line
out there is about one sixty eight one seventy probably
one seventy seven and a half on the over. Junk
has been a guy that he started off really well,
struggled a little bit lately, but he's still pitching a
little bit better than what I thought he would do.

(56:43):
If you take a look at his numbers, he's got
a three point two adra three point seven to expected
one oh eight whip, which is very good. But he's
still getting his average of velocities in the second percentile,
with right in the ninth percentile, heart hit percentage in
the seventh percentile. Those are things that the Yankees pretty
pretty much excel at. UH Carlos Rodan three point one

(57:08):
eighty r A three point two zero expected right there
with it, one oh five whip despite being six to two.
His extensions only in the twenty first percentile, but he's
a very good five percent not to use the percentile
strack out right, eighty fourth percentile. He's basically His major
pitch mitches are the forcing and the slider. I think

(57:31):
it was a pretty good day for the Yankees, and
uh Miami traded. Miami traded away the altfielder Sanchez. I
liked him. I would have rather had they keeped him
and the starters that they thought they were gonna end
up trading. They really didn't, so Miami's kept it a

(57:52):
little bit more. I thought they'd be more of a seller.
But they're playing close to five hundred ball. There better teams,
a lot of people think, and we've talked about them
for so long. We've made some good money on them,
but prefer the Yankees in this game. They're playing really well.
In where we were getting ready to write them off,
they played Tampa and they dominated Tampa. So they're on

(58:15):
a pretty good run, right now, and they think they're
going to get judged back soon. So I don't like
to lay this kind of number on the road, but
that would be the way I would look would be
the yankeeser.

Speaker 4 (58:26):
So the Yankees added a base stealer. That's good. They
need to stop making three airs a game and maybe
they can make the playoffs. I have Miami slightly ranked
just a little bit higher than the Yankees. That's mainly
due to their bullpen performing better than the Yankees bullpen Rodon,

(58:50):
Rodon and Junk. I have them pretty much neck and
neck as far as rankings are concerned in current form. Batting. Obviously,
the Yankees are a better hitting team even without judge.
They're probably a little bit better hitting team than Miami.
But Miami has a big bullpen advantage in my opinions,
so I will not be playing this game.

Speaker 3 (59:10):
The Marlins. If those guys that the Yankees got are
in and I'll make the team today, that'll erase that
bullpen disadvantage m.

Speaker 1 (59:20):
So the Marlins plus one and a half will be
my leg of the parlay here. It's just amazing that
no one wants to trade with Peter Bendix anymore because
he's just been He's just been putting people in their
graves for like the past two years since he showed up,
basically basically ruined the Orioles organization with one trade. It's
it's no I'm telling you right now, they probably had

(59:42):
every intention of moving al Contra, and I bet all
these other owners in the league are just like, he
wants these four guys. I'm not gonna do it. I like,
I value my job at this point because he's just
dominated every trade. Go back to last year he got
he got Augustin Ramirez for Jazz Chisholm. I mean, come on,
like just another it's the guy is amazing. He's totally

(01:00:05):
building out this uh, this Marlins team to be like
very very competitive. I don't know if they have enough
juice to to really get in the wild card mix
this year. But it's not their fault. It's because they're
in the National League. If this team was in the
American League, they'd probably be a playoff team this year.
But the NL, I think they're six or seven back,
but they're just chasing so many other quality teams. Not

(01:00:25):
being said, I do think they will still continue to
exceed market expectations. I'm sure, he'll somehow make Ryan Gusto
a good pitcher, like a better pitcher than he is.

Speaker 2 (01:00:35):
He'll go right to Jacksonville. He'll get the full treatment.

Speaker 1 (01:00:37):
He'll probably be up throwing throwing quality starts any day,
because that's who they got back for Sanchez. But like Jansen,
Junk's another one, like he was he was. I mean,
they've totally made him into a really good option. And
just like, look at what Quantrill's doing. I mean, some
of these guys, it's it's all it's all their player
development that's doing this. It's not like luck It's not

(01:00:58):
like they just like you know what I'm saying, Like
they didn't just like luck out, And like all all
of a sudden sudden, Quantrill's throwing the best ball he's
ever thrown.

Speaker 2 (01:01:07):
Junk couldn't do anything last year. Now he's great.

Speaker 1 (01:01:10):
Like that's the Marlins developing talent, that's what they are doing.
So and it goes into the bullpen. They suddenly have
a top five bullpen in the league. And most of
these guys are still there. And now because no one
wants to trade with them, they're gonna have Sandy the
rest of the year. They're gonna have Edward Cabrera, So
I will be playing on the Marlins until further notice,
and I'm gonna put them in the parlay here Marlin's

(01:01:30):
plus one and a half. Brian, go ahead, were you gonna?

Speaker 3 (01:01:32):
Yeah? Thereout to say, this takes us back to the
beginning of the year when we pointed out that Miami
totally all changed the coaching staff, and they have done
a tremendous job in that regard Miami plus one and
a half. The current line is about one point fifteen
mm hm, and.

Speaker 1 (01:01:52):
So that yeah. So the other thing too, you you
talk about Sanchez, you know, being the one that moves on.
I wonder if this frees up a spot for Jacob Marcy,
who's had one of the best seasons of anyone at
Triple A. Most can say, I mean, he's been down there.
They haven't really had a spot for him. They haven't
wanted to call him up. But he has been one

(01:02:13):
of the most consistent hitters at Triple A this year,
so maybe it's his time to get a shot. And
also they because he's been a little bit banged up. Uh,
they're still sitting on Devisondalo Santos down there. Like it's
just you know, maybe he gets a shot they I
thought he would have been up last year at this time,
Son start with him.

Speaker 3 (01:02:32):
I mean, the guys get tremendous power, I will say,
and I saw the song. I want to give credit
to the MLB network. The Yankees continue to trade away
their catchers. They've traded away nine catchers, I believe in
the last four years, and for the most part, they've
all been really good. They developed catchers better than any
team in Major League Baseball. And now they're trying to

(01:02:55):
make Rice he caught yesterday and they're trying to make
him more of more of a catcher. And Wells was
really nothing until they developed him. So the hats off
to the Yankees with the catchers, and they're being able
to trade these these other catchers away to get what
they need. And uh, but they've all these catchers that
they've traded away have all been good. Look at look

(01:03:17):
at Boston, look at look at Miami, look at all
these teams have gotten their catchers and they're really good players.

Speaker 1 (01:03:23):
And there's another catcher I believe at Triple A right now, TJ. Rudfeld,
that's a big league catcher and he'll have his time.
Like in another organization, he's probably already had his chance
at the big league level. But as you said, the
Yankees are just so deep at the position. It's it's yeah,
it's been very impressive. So the parlay today three team
are plus five fifty seven. This should this would be

(01:03:45):
a good one if we can hit it. We will
go Marlin's plus one and a half for the full game,
Mets moneyline for the full game, and then you've got
Braves team total over four and a half if you
can't get the team total and maybe just the full
maybe just the full game total, because I I feel
like you're gonna probably get runs from both teams here.
But Tokyo Brandon's play is the Braves team total full

(01:04:06):
game over four and a half. I'm just saying, if
I know we have some people that can't parlay the
team totals TV, are you okay with a full game
over if they can't get the team total in.

Speaker 4 (01:04:15):
Yeah, yeah, I think both teams go over four and
a half.

Speaker 1 (01:04:19):
Yeah, I would agree with that. So one more time,
Braves team total over four and a half for TV,
Mets moneyline for Brian Leonard, I'll go Marlins plus one
and a half. That's plus five fifty seven. It's ten o'clock,
so we're done for the day, done for the weekend.
Hope everyone has a fantastic weekend. Cash all your bets,
and we'll be back here Monday morning for another week
a total basis.

Speaker 2 (01:04:39):
Thank you guys for tuning in.

Speaker 1 (01:04:40):
We'll see you Monday