Total Bases | Beat the Books! Your Daily MLB Betting Fix - Predictions and Best Bets for August 4

Looking for the best MLB picks, predictions, and betting tips for Monday August 4, 2025? Tune in to Total Bases with expert handicappers Adam Trigger, Bryan Leonard and Tokyo Brandon as they break down today’s MLB matchups with sharp insights and actionable advice.

00:00 Introduction 
00:14 Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies
10:18 San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
19:55 Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins
30:15 Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
37:58 New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers
48:38 Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Mets
58:01 Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
01:01:35 Parlay of the Day

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
All right, welcome in everybody. It is Monday time for
total bases. The trade deadline has passed, the teams have
settled in, We've seen their new guys start to play
over the weekend, and now we're here to to just
forge ahead the dog days as they call it. It's
August August fourth, and got about two months ago the

(00:22):
rest of the regular season. So I'm here with Brian
Leonard and Tokyo Brandon and we are going to start.
I didn't even know this was a thing until earlier today.
Apparently we have a super chat which I've now somehow
managed to lose, and the super chat comment how I
lost it? That's just Monday morning, right there, Brian Leonard,

(00:42):
I've lost the comment somehow, even though it was starred
there it is hot.

Speaker 2 (00:47):
Where are the comments? Tokyo click start that's right there. Yeah, anyway,
TV's on it.

Speaker 1 (00:56):
We want to know about the Orioles, and the Orioles
are going to take on the Phillies who late, well
not really late. Felt like it was late for me
because I got some sun yesterday, so I was very tired.
But last night closed out a two nothing win over
the Tigers to take two of three from Detroit this weekend.

Speaker 2 (01:14):
Now they take on the Orioles Brian Leonard.

Speaker 1 (01:16):
Let's let's hit this one for dal G DLG in
the comics, Phillies Orioles Philly is a pretty big favorite.

Speaker 2 (01:23):
How are you seeing this one?

Speaker 3 (01:24):
Yeah, we appreciate the the request and and obviously the money.
Appreciate it. Thank you, Baltimore, Philadelphia. Povich coming back a
couple of lefties publishing Lozardo Jesus or Jesus if you're
Tokyo Brandon uh one ninety three is looking Yeah, something

(01:45):
like that, maybe one ninety five for Philadelphia. Total of
eight and a half to the over of twenty five,
eight and a half to the over twenty five. Polvich
two of five on the season five point one five,
six point three three expected one point five to zero whip.
It's been a while since he's pitched. Let's take a
look at the game logs. He has not gone since

(02:07):
June fifteenth. He faced the Angels, actually pitched pretty well,
but they sent him down to the minors and he's back,
and he's a guy that we were excited about going
into twenty twenty four. He's not a guy who's gonna
blow you away with his stuff. But he is a
guy that's supposed to be had very good, pretty good control,

(02:28):
and was going to be at least one of the
future starters for the Orioles. Hasn't worked out that way
in two seasons. Five point one eighty RA one point
four to six whip. You take a look at his
stack cast page, just basically all blue, terrible numbers when
it comes to expected dra first percentile expected batting, the average, fifth,

(02:51):
average eggs, velosity third, chase raight eighth, bearrel right second,
hard hit rate first. So if this is the same
cade Povi, it's coming back here for Baltimore, I don't
want a part of him. But he did get a
lot of height before he started up here in the pros.
He looked pretty good in in the minors. He does
throw five pitches mostly is four seamer at thirty seven percent,

(03:15):
but it's about one mile an hour less than the
average left hander. Also, his rus Lozardo a guy who's
really struggled a little bit at times this year. Other
times he's been great. He's got nine wins on the season,
but he had a four point three to one ERA
one point three seven whip expected. The are much better, well,
I guess not much better, but three point sixty three

(03:37):
something more you would expect out of this Philadelphia starting staff.
No extension, he's only six foot seventh percentality and the extension.
But he's got a lot of red on his his
stat cast chart. He's got five pitches. He does throw
the four seamer more often, but it's a pretty good
four seamer ninety six point four, which is three point

(03:58):
three percent three miles an hour better than a normal
left handed pitcher. The line here looks to be a
little high if you ask me. Baltimore's hitting very well
lately over the last fourteen days. Baltimore's second right behind
the Browers and WRC plus. So you got a good

(04:19):
hitting Baltimore team. I think we've seen the worst of
kde Polovich. He would probably be somebody I'd like to
see him come out and pitch a decent game here
so we can get like a by signal on him.
But the way Baltimore's hitting Philadelphia had that LA game
last night, I see a little bit of value here
on Baltimore.

Speaker 4 (04:41):
So Philadelphia is just a really good team and they
have such a good rotation here. I like to look
at how pitchers have fared against the batters they're facing today,
but not no real sample size to look at here
for these two teams, So the only thing to do
is is kind of compare everything else. Don't bet against Jesus,

(05:06):
but today you might bet against Jesus because he's only
ranked sixteen out of thirty on a curve of thirty.
I don't have kid Povic ranked because he doesn't have
enough innings logged in the last thirty days. Neither bullpen's
performing well. I have them both ranked twenty one twenty
two ish out of thirty. But Baltimore has been cranking

(05:27):
the ball a little better than Philadelphia has. I thought
Lozarto would be really good coming over from a bad
team to a good team. He started out pretty good,
kind of tailed off a little bit, but I would
agree with Brian if I were to play this, maybe
the Orioles would be a decent chance here, even though
they're not playing for anything and Philly's playing for everything.

(05:50):
But man, Baltimore sure is hitting better than Philadelphia right now,
so I might want to take a flyer on them.
I might not, though, Yeah.

Speaker 1 (06:02):
I like how the Orioles have played the last week
or two. You know, you talk about not playing for anything,
and you're probably right. I think they're eight and a
half games out of a wild card spot. Crazier things
have happened, but they would take a pretty big surge
to get them back in the mix. That being said,
they've played arguably their best ball of the season the
last sort of week or two. You know, something I

(06:24):
talked about last week and it totally burned me was
Orioles against left handed pitching. I went against them twice
in a double header where they were opposing left handed starters,
and they played great. And they've actually done well a
couple of times now, so they're sort of putting that
to bed. You know, if you look at their full
season numbers on the road and against left handed pitching

(06:46):
hasn't been great, but recently they've been better, and it's
just you know, maybe it's getting healthier, maybe it's you know,
sort of switching the roster up a little bit. They
called up a guy named Jeremiah Jackson that's been awesome
at Triple in the miners, Double A, Triple A this year.
He got the call. He was in the lineup yesterday.
So I'm I like the way the Orioles have played.

(07:07):
And I'll talk about Povich for a minute, because he's actually,
you know, he's been hurt, but he's had quite a
law an extended rehab, so he's been They've really.

Speaker 2 (07:17):
Given him like the full sort of. I think it
has something.

Speaker 1 (07:21):
To do with not really having a spot for him slash,
not wanting to run up his innings because going back
to Tokyo Brandon's point, they are a little bit, you know,
out of it, sort of on the fringes right now.
So he's been rehabbing for a month in the minors,
one start an a ball for Aberdeen, three starts for Norfolk.
His numbers in July in his rehab stints and the

(07:42):
Miners are three point three eight e er. But more
importantly a two oh seven batting average against and a
zero point nine to four whipth Those are very good
numbers for a starting pitcher. The Phillies, I've said this
a million times, great hitting team, great team all around,
but where you can maybe expose them a tiny bit
is against the left handed pitcher and maybe one that

(08:02):
throws some junk that keeps the ball off speed.

Speaker 2 (08:05):
That's really what Povich does.

Speaker 1 (08:06):
That's that's where he's gonna make his money in this
league if he does, which I think we're you know,
I think we're in agreement that he's probably gonna be
in the league for a while. He's not like he
should be a starter in Major League Baseball for a
few years. Like that is his kind of upside. He
was very highly rated if you go back to last year.
He's gonna keep hitters off balance. He's a south paw,

(08:28):
he's gonna get lefties out, and he's gonna kind of
throw that you know, that off speed stuff in there.
And we've seen left handed pitchers make careers out of
this ten fifteen years of doing that in this league.
So I'm higher on Povich than the market. I'm starting
to come around on the Orioles. The only thing that
even keeps me off of this a little bit is
the fact that they're going against a lefty, because they

(08:48):
have struggled against lefties this year a little bit. But
I'd rather take my I think I'm willing to take
my chances that they can trum up some offense.

Speaker 2 (08:55):
I like the plus one and a half, so I'm
gonna put this in the parlay.

Speaker 1 (08:58):
Orioles plus one and a half, Brian Leonard, what do
we have there for a you surprise me there?

Speaker 3 (09:05):
Then early here with the parlay, let's take a look
the spread football and were okay, we're looking at plus
one and a half minus one twenty basically across the board.

Speaker 2 (09:16):
That's great, I'll take that.

Speaker 1 (09:17):
You got the you know, you do have the you
do have a team coming off Sunday night baseball, which
is not a huge deal. But I'm less concerned with
the fact that they played Sunday night baseball and more
concerned with, like the way that game played out. It
was just a tight game and then it went down
to the wire and they sort of get the big win,
use Duran for the save. Now they have to turn

(09:38):
around and play again. I think that's you know, it's
just not the easiest setup, regardless of what night of
the week it is.

Speaker 2 (09:44):
So again, a.

Speaker 1 (09:45):
Lot of reasons to like the Orioles here, and you're
getting the run with the road team. I think that's
really good. That might even be a client play for me,
but for now it will go in the parlay. So great,
great question right there. It led to a good discussion,
and that might even be a client play for me,
so we will. We will see Jose Perez. Good morning.
We appreciate you guys tuning in. It's Monday morning. You're

(10:07):
with us, so we really appreciate that. Like subscribe, jump
in the comments, and let's let's have a great week
this week. Ethan Ethan Bainbridge, He's always here. We appreciate him.
He wants to back the Giants in this spot, but
doesn't want to back lander. I think that's the handicap
Brian Leonard I've had. That's exactly how I looked at
the game. I think it's a good spot for the Giants,

(10:28):
but I don't necessarily want to back lander. Tell you what,
I don't really want to back Jove on video either.
Didn't know he was still in the league. So what
do you see in there? Giants Pirates.

Speaker 3 (10:39):
Yeah, we're looking at Lander Oviedo Verlanders. Money's come in
a little bit on the dog in this one. We're
looking at some sersis go about one twenty two, maybe
eight and a half to the over last. It was

(11:01):
the last time out that he pitched. Better hold on
this second here, let me look at the game blogs
last two starts for Verlander had been better. He played
the Pirates last time out, and normally if you play
a team back to back, I am looking to go opposite.
Whatever happened the first time. First time out was the

(11:23):
twenty ninth of June. Last time five innings, one in
a run, six hits seven to one, struck out minus
walk ratio. Before that he played the Braves. He did
go five shutout innings and gave up one hit, but
he did walk five and only struck out three. He
had two starts in a row in which he won
before that against Toronto, which he walked more than he

(11:45):
actually struck out. Verlander on the season, he got his
first win and last time out four point five three
ERA four point eight zero expected a one point four
to nine whip. His whip is really what's gotten to
him in the last couple of years, one point three
eight and one point four to nine despite having a
one point one to three whip in his career of
twenty seasons. He had a tremendous career, future Hall of Famer,

(12:10):
but he doesn't really have any red on his stat
cast page. It's all either middling or blue. Is ground
ball rate in the fourteenth percent teleo means he gives
up a lot of fly balls. He has got five
pitches he throws for seamer mostly. He still got decent
for seamer, but it's below league average at ninety four

(12:32):
point one and he throws at forty seven percent of
the time. That's the thing. He's got to get away
from throwing that and be more of a pitcher and
less of a thrower. And he's done that a little bit,
but still he's his numbers are not that impressive. Oviedo.
He hasn't pitched in two years. He was a mainstay

(12:52):
in twenty twenty three through thirty two starts and this
year he hasn't done anything. The last two years, hasn't
been in the majors. His extension is great. He's six
foot six, ninety third percentile. That's small velocity eightieth percentile.
So his fastball is ninety five point eight percent or

(13:13):
ninety five point eight mosbor hour, which is about more
than a half better than the league average. But that's
his two pitches he works on mostly as the slider
and the forrest seimer. He also is a curve, sacred
and change. I think he's got a chance to have
a pretty successful day here against San Francisco, a team

(13:36):
that is still struggling to find their offense. And the
granted they their home games are in really good pitcher's park.
This is also a pitcher's park, so I'm not sure
they're going to find it in Pittsburgh here, but we're
looking at Pittsburgh as the home dog. Pittsburgh's plains is
pretty good baseball, but they're seven and three their last
ten out. San Francisco is still not playing well. I

(13:59):
kind of look at Pittsburgh is in this game a
little bit. I guess I would trust a guy his
first day back in three years. Obviously, he could do
a lot of things differently than what he has done
three years ago, so he may surprise what San Francisco
expects out of him here. We'll see how that goes
slightly in Pittsburgh. But I agree I I San Francisco

(14:21):
I think is the better team. In fact, I'm pretty
sure they're the better Tam. But till Ferlander puts it
all together, I'm not going to be betting into them.

Speaker 4 (14:30):
Everyone do us a huge favor and go to our
pages and see what we have to offer. I have
a five percent play today in MLB. You can grab
that at my page. Brian will put something out, Adam
will put something out if they haven't already, and we
always almost always put free plays up as well. Take
the ten seconds and go to our pages and see
what we have up today. Regarding this one, the Pirates,

(14:54):
this is another one where you got to cover the
logo and just go with the data here. You know,
the Pirates, they're not a very good team, but they're
thirty one and twenty five at home and ranking wise,
I have them hitting better than the Giants, and I
have their bullpen better than the Giants a lot better.

(15:15):
I have them ranked eight in hitting right now, and
I have the Giants ranked twenty bullpen. I have Giant
the Giants ranked nineteen, while I have the Pirates ranked ten.
So Pirates have every advantage here that I can see.
You know, it's hard to looking at a Pirate logo,
it's hard to put money on it. But if you

(15:35):
cover the logo and just look at the numbers, Pirates
are playing a lot better than the Giants are right now.
And Verry Lander is one in eight. So yeah, he
did get his last win. I think it was his
last start where he finally picked up a win, So
maybe he's turning things around. He's a grizzled vet and
his wife is hot, but besides that, he doesn't have

(15:58):
much going for him. I would say the Pirates have
a really good shot of winning this one. I haven't
bet it, but man, number of numbers wise, the Pirates
look a lot better to me.

Speaker 2 (16:11):
So here's a tough, tough part about this one.

Speaker 1 (16:14):
Is like, yeah, the well tough to tough to say
much about the Pirates bullpen because they did trade some
of those guys away last week.

Speaker 2 (16:20):
So you know, I don't know if I so.

Speaker 3 (16:23):
Did so of the other playing today.

Speaker 2 (16:24):
Yeah they did, yeh they did. I still I guess.
So here's what I'll.

Speaker 1 (16:29):
Be looking for from the from the Pirates, because I
actually don't hate what they did. I know some Pirates
fans felt like they should have gotten like a Hall
for David Bednar, but like, remember David Bednar was was
sent back down to Triple A a few months ago, Like,
so we need to slow our role and think that
that they we should get a Mason Miller like return
for David Bednar. That's what I saw the Pirates fans
sort of like complaining about I actually thought the Pirates

(16:51):
quietly had a very productive trade deadline. The problem is
they put these guys at Triple A, which doesn't make
a whole lot of sense, Like why is Cam Devane
at Triple A? Why, you know, maybe the guy that
they got back from the Yankees, the catcher, I could
see him being at Triple A for a little while,
but like you would think, like, these are guys that
I think would help them at the big league level
right now.

Speaker 2 (17:10):
So what I'll be looking forward with this game since
it's Monday.

Speaker 1 (17:14):
Monday tends to be the day where the Triple A
doesn't play at all, so the miners are not. It's
like a league wide off day for minor league baseball,
and you see a lot of like the roster moves
happen on Monday. It's almost like become universal. Guys are
gonna they're the front offices, like come in and then
they'll make like three four roster moves on a Monday morning.

(17:34):
So that's what I'll be looking forward the Pirates just
to see if, like are we gonna bring Devaney up.
They've got Nick Solak down there that I think can
help them at the big league level. And then the
catcher I think was at Flores from the Yankees organization.
He might I could see him down at Triple A
for a little while longer. So, but any of those
moves would make me like the Pirates more. Now, Oh,

(17:55):
video the interesting thing with him, he's another guy that's
had a long, long rehab Tommy John surgery in twenty
twenty four I think twenty four, maybe didn't pitch at
all twenty three into twenty four, so he missed over
a year with Tommy John. And he's been working his
way back from it this year. In July, so two
starts at a ball, two at Double A, and then

(18:15):
he had one start at Triple A last week on
one to eighty three batting average against zero point nine
zero FIP and a two point one six ERA. So
he's looked very good. And this isn't like one or
two starts. This is over a month because they had
him in the complex in June. So he's thrown at
the complex in June, and then he threw five live

(18:36):
games in July and he's looked very good. So I
may have to admit being a little bit wrong on
the Giants. They seem to be going in the wrong direction.
I know they kind of got to win yesterday, but
it's a tough one. I don't know if I can
get to the window with this one, but I see
why you guys like the Pirates a little bit. I
guess I'll just I'm just gonna like really stay neutral
there and not give much out after the move though

(18:58):
maybe a little value toward the Pirates. I'm seeing like
plus one fifteen plus one twenty, Is that right, Brian?
Is that move that far at this point?

Speaker 3 (19:06):
Yeah, we're looking right now. Bed Online's got plus one
oh four. That's the lowe. Well, actually bet the MGM's
down to even money. Still money coming out in Pittsburgh.
I mean, it's the best number out there staying, but uh,
anywhere from one fourteen on the dog.

Speaker 1 (19:26):
So I think there was a little fake that just
happened right there, because there was this was like right
when we got on the show, San Francisco got hit.
I saw like plus one fifteen's out for the Pirates
after they were like a slight favorite this morning. So
I wonder if this started to then get bet back
down toward even That's that's interesting.

Speaker 2 (19:43):
Movement right there.

Speaker 3 (19:44):
A lot of times I can get a reference. So
Nikotts trying to battle it out a little bit early
in the morning too as well.

Speaker 1 (19:50):
For sure, it's a good, good discussion. That's a that's
a very interesting game one. I'll certainly have my eye on.
City by the Bay wants to know. I know he's
a Giants fan, so we just talked about his team,
but he wants to know.

Speaker 2 (20:02):
Have you changed your opinion on the Astros.

Speaker 1 (20:05):
I'm gonna let Brian Leonard go first and talk about
If he wants to chime in on that, he can,
but let's talk Astros Marlins because we had some we
had some developments over the weekend with these two teams.
The Astros go to Fenway Park and get swept, and
the Marlins, which you heard about right here about three
months ago that this team might be pretty good, are

(20:27):
now one of the hottest teams in the league and
they sweep the New York Yankee. So, Brian Leonard, what's
your opinion on the Astros and do you have a
play in this game?

Speaker 4 (20:34):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (20:34):
I think he's mostly looking for yours because you were
the one that's been paiding on. But it's been good
to pay on lately, they haven't played well. Science's Jason
Alexander on the on the Mountain today for Houston against
al Kintara Alkatar spitch a lot better lately. Miami is
basically a one twenty five favorite. It was it was lower.

(20:56):
In fact, overnight, Houston was a one to fifteen favorite,
And as soon as we started the show, I was
all set to use Miami here as my part of
this parlay, but they took a lot of money now,
so now I'm getting a lesser number here on Miami.
But we're looking at about a one twenty five favorite

(21:17):
now out of Miami an eight and a half. And
you know, believe it or not, the Miami Marlins are
a five hundred ball club. They've fought their way all
the way back, and this is a team right now
that got a lot of confidence. They swept the Yankees,
which is something you know, I know, we get a
lot of people either love or hate the Yankees. We've

(21:38):
said a lot this year that the Yankees are getting
swept and you don't usually say that this is not
the same team. And obviously they don't have their best
player right now. But one minute the Yankees. They're a
team playing good ball. Next minute they're not. And here
they are, and they're not again. Jason Alexander's two seasons
in the majors, let's just go with that. Twenty six games,

(22:01):
fourteen starts, five point nine to two ERA, and his
expected array is about five point twenty five overall, one
point sixty seven whip nothing really strong on his uh
stat cast page, fastball velocity in the twelve percent el
so he doesn't have much of a fastball. In fact,

(22:22):
he knows that, which is why only throws a ten
percent of the time. Good for him, it's at ninety
two point four. He's got the sinker change, sweeper forcing,
and the cutter. Basically he's a sinker change guy. And
thirty two percent not somebody I'm usually going out there
trying to bet into. And we'll see how long he

(22:44):
goes in this game. Sandy Alcaterra, they take a look
at his game logs as of late, he would go
his last two times out. He played the Cardinals five
innings nowhere runs three hits. He played the Royals, excuse

(23:04):
me off the Royals the Padres seven innings to shut
out Baseball four hits no walks, so he's starting to
turn it around. You could tell a lot by the walks,
and because we talked about that before the season started.
Coming back from major surgery or Timmy Johns that kind
of thing. The control is the last thing you get.

(23:25):
In fact, if you look at what he had done
originally four walks zero four two two five that was
his beginnings. Now he's for walks three zero two two
one zero. So he's been much better control as of late,
and that is really helping him. Sandiel Cara in the

(23:48):
season six point three six. The ra obviously poor, but
his expected era is five point oh three one point
four to two whip, but that was mostly from early
in the season. Fastball velocity, that's he's very good fastball
ninety four percentile. He only throws as four steamer twenty
two percent of the time, so he's got a very

(24:09):
good fasketball when he needs it. His sinker change and
a four steamer and slider and his curve he uses
all of them from sixteen to twenty four percent. I
love that this is a guy I'm looking to play on.
I like Miami here. I'm hoping we can get a
little bit of a buyback here on Houston, but I
still might end up using Miami. That's my leader right

(24:29):
now for the parlay. I like him, but I would
have preferred the one to fifteen or whatever that was
there a little bit earlier.

Speaker 4 (24:38):
Guys, do it's a huge favor. Go to the replay
of this and leave a comment and the like, and
let WAA talk know that you like our show. Because
maybe they think baseball is inferior to football, but we
certainly don't. So let them know you like our show
and the baseball rules. So here we go, Astros versus Miami.

(25:00):
This is one where just straight up numbers are not
going to tell you the exact story. Because the straight
up numbers, I have the Astros ranked higher than Miami
at everything, but just a little bit higher. I actually
have Jason Alexander ranked a little bit higher than Sandy Alcantara,
which I don't actually think he's a better picture. But

(25:22):
his prediction numbers, or his predictors, I guess we should
say his expected numbers, that's the word I was looking for,
are really good actually, even though his actual stats are bad.
He's got a seven plus ERA and really bad. But
al Candera has a six plus RA. Neither one of

(25:42):
these pictures have great numbers, but Jason Alexander does have
the better expected numbers. Both bullpens pretty good and pretty equal,
and Houston's actually hitting a little bit better than Miami
right now. So those are the numbers side now the
eye test. Miami is just on a roll. Not only

(26:04):
did they sweep the Yankees, but they won two in
a row against the Cardinals. Right before that, They've won
five in a row, maybe more than five in a row.
They're just on a roll right now, feeling good about themselves.
I don't know if they're thinking about making the playoffs
or not, but you know, these guys aren't thinking that
deep when they're out there. They're thinking about hitting a
ninety mile an hour fastball. They're not thinking if they're

(26:26):
going to the playoffs or not. They're playing for contracts.
They're playing four next year, some of these guys. And
you know, I think I would agree with Brian Miami.
I think would have the advantage, even though all of
my numbers point the other way. So because of all
these contradicting factors, I'm not going to play the game.

Speaker 1 (26:49):
So I'll go back to the original question and address
that first, Have you changed your opinion on the Astros
trig No, I still think they're I still think they
finished third in this division, and I'll I'll tell you
what like, so, I think the question is being phrased
because they made a lot of moves at the trade deadline.
I tend to not like these teams that go out

(27:09):
and sort of like remake their team at the deadline,
Like I much prefer a team that goes out and
gets like the maybe the one or two guys that
that really fit that that are like the needs, whereas
like the Astros felt like they just went out and
got a new lineup, right, like just who is available? Okay,
Korea bringing back great Sanchez for Miami Great, Like we've

(27:33):
got Jeremy.

Speaker 2 (27:33):
Paynea coming back.

Speaker 1 (27:34):
Suddenly you've got a very you know, it's like a
different lineup than they've had the last couple of months
and like this, But this is still like a team
that I look at and say, they've really overachieved this point,
and I just don't think they're better than some of
the other top options in the American League.

Speaker 2 (27:51):
So no, I don't. My opinion hasn't changed on them.

Speaker 1 (27:53):
Now I played him yesterday, which I'm upset with myself
for doing so. I really just want to go against
Giulito in that spot. But no, my opinion has not
changed about the Astros at all. They are still long
term a fade for me. Now. Stephen Fallon says, who
would have thought the Marlins a five hundred team? Well me,
because I've been talking about them for three months that

(28:15):
they're like way better than their their record, And to
go back to Tokyo Brandon's point, they don't know any better.
These are kids, like they don't know what what like playoffs,
they don't These are our young kids for the most
part that are either in their first or second year.

Speaker 2 (28:30):
It's like their first taste of big league baseball.

Speaker 1 (28:32):
So in my opinion, they're very, very dangerous in terms
of like they're there's zero expectations with them, No one's
expecting anything from them.

Speaker 2 (28:40):
And you know you've got guys like Kyle Stowers.

Speaker 1 (28:44):
I'm just going off the top of my head, like
Pauli's been grand Pauli was recently called up. Edwards was
called up toward the end of last year. Right, These
these are guys in like their first or maybe second
big league season in a lot of cases, Augustin Ramirez
for full season at the big league level.

Speaker 2 (29:02):
They just don't know any better. They're out just playing ball.
They're having fun.

Speaker 1 (29:05):
They clearly are having like a good time. If you
watch Marlins games, like there's there seems to be a
great vibe in that clubhouse. I think it goes a
lot from like what they're doing at the lower levels
in their organization and they Brian Brian Leonard brought this
up in April. They really like overhauled their organizational, like

(29:26):
a lot of the coaching staff, and they're developing pitchers.
And what it seems like they've done is develop a
bunch of guys that can go out and throw three innings.
Like they don't have a great rotation, and alcon Terra
hasn't been great this year either, but from Triple from
from the majors to Triple A, they have a bunch
of guys that can go out and throw two or
three innings. It's why that over the last forty five

(29:47):
to sixty days they've had one of the top five
bullpens in baseball. And and so this is a team
that I have zero interest in betting against I could
only bet the Marlins here, and that'll likely be the
case for me until they go the other way, as
we have seen young teams do. At some point, they're
gonna go the other way, probably lose a few in
a row and maybe play themselves out of this race.
But for right now, you just got to ride the wave.

(30:09):
Marlins are passed for me here, Okay, Tom, Tom Roper,
new member. Appreciate that. Kelly and Vegas told me we
got to get those subscriptions. You know, we have the city.
It's great that the same people are watching the show
every time, but we need those subscriptions. So if you're
not subscribed, do me a favor so Kelly's not breathing

(30:33):
down my neck, and subscribe to the channel if you
haven't done so already, because apparently we need those subscriptions
to keep this thing going. And we appreciate Tom. I
believe it's free. You just have to hit subscribe on
the YouTube channel. Very much appreciated, or wherever you're watching.
I think there's like a new platform.

Speaker 2 (30:51):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (30:52):
I'm not up on like the technology stuff. I just
come in here and talk about baseball for an hour
and then go whow baseball the rest of the day
and then come back and do it again the next day.
So Jose Prez is what platform is that, Jose dropping
the chat what you're watching on? I think that's like
one of the new ones. They don't know what logo
that is. But anyway, we appreciate having Jose here every day.

(31:15):
He wants to point out, Yeah, the Red Sox are rolling.
That was impressive this weekend. I got burned.

Speaker 2 (31:20):
I thought I had this.

Speaker 1 (31:21):
Great spot with bramber Valdez yesterday Brian Leonard. I ended
up getting a good number on the Astros and the
Red Sox just pour it up as they have been
all weekend. Now they come in, they're still home, they're
still at Fenway Park. Do the vibes carry on into
this series with the Royals?

Speaker 2 (31:38):
What do you think?

Speaker 3 (31:40):
Well, wet Bailey Fulter coming over his first start in
Kansas City. I do like what Kansas City did with
the trade deadline. They're playing some pretty good ball right now.
He's a lefty going against Bryan Bao. Bao at home
is about a one fifty five favorite just about everywhere
up to one sixty, but one fifty five for the
most part a total of nine to the over or

(32:01):
nine and a half to the under, so we're getting
I For the most part, I like pitchers who are
taken from a team that is not going to the
playoffs to a team that is at least in the
playoff race, and that's Kansas City. Now that they're a
five hundred ball club, and I think it tells the
pitcher that you were wanted and you can get out

(32:24):
of a situation where your team was not playing well. Now,
that's the good thing about Bailey Falter. His extension is
ninety six percentile, which is excellent, but everything else is
in the blue, which is bad. Chase right fifth percentile
with right fourth strike out right fifth, throws five pitches

(32:44):
as fourth semer the most. In fact, he throws a
forty five percent of the time, and it's not very
good ninety two point two. That's a concern. I'm hopefully
hopefully coming over to Kansas City, they will make some
changes in that and he'll throw his fourth seamer a
little bit less and that would help him out here.
But he's got he's got some lousy numbers. Overall, his

(33:06):
ra is three point seventy three, but is expected as
four point five to five one point one eight whip.
That's a pretty good whip for him this season, so
he's doing some things right. Hopefully Ken said he can
get the best out of it. Brian Bao comes in
three point one ninety ray four point four to six expected.
Pretty lucky so far this year one point two eight whip.

(33:27):
Round ball rate eighty fifth percentile, and he's only six
foot one, so that's really good for him. Average exs
velocity seventy third percentile, hard hit rates seventy fifth. He's
not going to blow you away with the strikeouts nineteenth percentile,
with rate fourteenth. Does throw six pitches if he counts
the slider, which is only one percent, So basically five
pitches from ten to thirty six percent is four seemers

(33:51):
league average. He throws a seventeen percent like that. Most
these Boston pitchers are getting away from throwing the fastball,
and I think that's why they had so so much
success in that regard. So the line on this, as
I mentioned about it, one fifty five for Boston here,
I like the way Kansas City's plan. I would prefer

(34:11):
Kansas City, but I don't want to bet on Falter
on the road here until I see that he's changing
up what he throws. If I see this game he
gets away from throwing the fastball a little bit more,
they'll give us some value on the future for him.
But as of right now, I'll probably be passing on this.

Speaker 4 (34:31):
So I've never been fan. But this Seri's playing pretty well.
He's odd because his away stats are a little bit
better than his home stats. But I'd like to vack
him here. But when I dig a little deeper, I
mean I've got him ranked higher than Falter by quite

(34:52):
a bit. Actually, I've got Brian Bayo like a top
a top one third. Hang on a second, I've got
Bao like a top one third pitcher in the league,
where I've got Falter a bottom one third pitcher in
the league. I like Boston's bullpen a little bit better,

(35:14):
just a little bit. Neither neither bullpen is very is
very good right now, but both lineups are hitting quite well,
and neither pitcher really walks too many guys. They're both
in the acceptable range. I don't know. I like Boston's
team total over perhaps here. I like to look at

(35:34):
home and away stats here, But you know, Falter is
a guy who just got traded, so you know, even
his home stadium is technically away because he never pitches there.
So yeah, I would lean towards Boston either that or
Boston's team total. But you know, when I dig deeper,
Beo's stats against these batters not very good. Yeah, everything's

(35:59):
kind of red locked and contradicting. So I'll probably staff
this game.

Speaker 1 (36:05):
Yeah, I can't imagine I end up with a play here.
I think someone asked about the total.

Speaker 2 (36:10):
In the chat.

Speaker 1 (36:10):
I kind of made it right on that number of
nine and a half, so I don't really see much
value there either way. I think my you know, like
I guess human nature for me would be to want
to fade the Red Sox because I played against them
yesterday and I had my reasons to do so, but
a lot of that was based on the fact that
the Red Sox had some bullpen usage going into yesterday

(36:31):
and also Lucas shi Alito, and neither of those things
are affecting this game. Because they were able to win
yesterday without burning their top bullpen arms, obviously, it's a
different starter. So so I can't really go that route either.
I do think this could be a competitive game. So
again that would lead me to think, okay, underdog, maybe
take some plus money, maybe look at the plus one

(36:53):
and a half.

Speaker 2 (36:53):
But I really do think it's priced correctly.

Speaker 1 (36:56):
So this is just one that I don't have a
ton to offer, but we got to go to the chat.
Jabbroni says important question, cats or dogs. I know Adam
is a cat A cat guy, completely wrong. I have
two dogs. My fiance is on the board of a
dog rescue place here in central New York.

Speaker 2 (37:15):
So we've got two.

Speaker 1 (37:17):
We've got two pities like pit bulls, and if it
was up to her, we'd have ten. But I told
her we can't too. We just got this guy back
in November. So there is my you can see him
right there. He's on my couch or he's not supposed
to be, but dog person and that is very much
Mallory's doing. Like I said, if it was up to her,

(37:38):
we'd have we'd.

Speaker 2 (37:39):
Take them all home. So anyway, I want to answer
that question.

Speaker 1 (37:43):
Not much to offer the Royals Royal's Red Sox handicap,
but I wanted to let you know that slick Vic
my guy, if you can still get plus four seventy
on the Yankees to miss the playoffs after this weekend,
you got to take that right now? Is can we
get the chat going here? Can you guys look like,

(38:04):
what is that right now? Because it did get as
high as plus six hundred last week, which I could
not believe. I think I got five to one someone
on the show. Guys in the chat were saying they
got plus five fifty when we talked about Yankees Tom
missed the playoffs last week. If you can still get
plus four seventy on that and you haven't bet it yet.

Speaker 5 (38:23):
Take that right now, take that right now. They just
got swept by the They just got swept by the Marlins.
There should be a much bigger price correction there, in
my opinion, after getting slapped around all weekend by a
five hundred team from the National League. Now the Yankees
have a chance to redeem themselves.

Speaker 1 (38:40):
But Brian Leonard, I'm not quite sure that they're going
to Mark Kinsen wants.

Speaker 2 (38:43):
To know, Yankees Rangers, how are you seeing that?

Speaker 1 (38:46):
And do you think that plus four seventy is still
a crazy price on that?

Speaker 2 (38:50):
Bet?

Speaker 3 (38:52):
Well there right now they've fallen to third of the
division and Seattle is coming up there on Houston. They're
only got zero zero five win percentage better than Seattle
right now. So yes, I am a little bit concerned
for the Mets, or excuse me, for the Yankees making

(39:14):
the playoffs, but I like the most they made over
the All Star breaks. So I'm gonna set it out
right now. We're talking the Yankees in Texas. A couple
of lefties, Freed and Corbon. Freed the road favorite. Basically,
I wont forty favorite looks like seven and a half
slightly to the over. This is a really good pitchers

(39:35):
park this season. It helps the Texas has got some
of the best starting pitching in Major League Baseball. Yankees
Max Freed. He's had some blister problems lately, but he
seems to be able to make a start today. Two
point six to two ERA on the season, three point

(39:55):
three eight expected, one point three whip, very good numbers
as you would expect. He's not getting much of a
chase rate thirty third percentile stench is nothing great considering
him being six foot four, but his walk rate has
been very good five point nine percent this year. Last
year was an off year four and from the walks,
but as of right now. He's got a seventeen point

(40:18):
two stricout minus walk ratio, which is not great, but
it's up there where we look for it. Like Max
Freed throws a lot of pitches. He's got seven different
pitches he throws and his and his. He throws a
lot of off speed pitches, which I really like. So

(40:38):
he's a he's a guy I like going up against
this Texas team who's loss of problems offensively this year. Obviously,
as I mentioned, they playing more of a pitcher spark
this season than in the past seasons and that has
an effect on him. But Patrick Corbyn three point seven
eighty IRA four point one seven whip or excuse me,
you are expected one point two to seven whip fastball

(41:00):
velocities only in the twelfth percentile, and he only throws
his four seamer three percent of the time. That's why
he's having a lot more success here. He knows he's
getting older and he doesn't blow people away with that.
He's smart enough to keep it away. Slider, sink or
cutter basically is what you get out of him, and
I think he can have some success doing so. When

(41:23):
it took take a look at the line here. As
I mentioned the way the Yankees are playing, I don't
know if I want him here in this price range.
I would prefer Texas obviously. I Freed's a better pitcher
than Corbin. You got to give him that. The bullpen
for the Yankees eventually, once everybody finds their spot, will

(41:45):
work out very well. And I think they'll be better
come playoff time if they get there. But right now,
slight lean with the home dog, but likely not going
to be involved in this one.

Speaker 4 (41:56):
So, guys, I have a five percent play up today.
I'm sure and Brian are going to put plays out.
I have a free play up too. I'm sure both
of my guys here are going to have free plays up.
Go visit our page and check out what we got.
Takes a couple of seconds, Hit the like and subscribe
as well. Yankees are just a mediocre team. And if

(42:17):
you took the uniforms off of this same roster and
put Kansas City Royal uniforms on this team, would you
be talking about them this much? Absolutely not Max Freed.
Is there one really good player minus Aaron Judge. This
team's just mediocre. I mean they're not good. I mean

(42:38):
they have a bad rotation.

Speaker 2 (42:40):
Max.

Speaker 4 (42:41):
Besides Max Freed, are there any pitchers that you would
that you would have to have on your team. No,
Their bullpen is mediocre, they're hitting his mediocre. They do
have the best pure hitter in all of Major League Baseball.
But he's injured right now. I heard he's coming back
on Tuesday. Not sure if that's true or not. But

(43:02):
this team put a different uniform on him and they suck. Sorry,
but today I have the Rangers and the Yankees basically
even at almost everything. I mean, I have a line
of statistics lined up here, and there's tons of variation,
and these teams are less than one point apart in everything.
That's how close these two teams are. Max Freed is

(43:26):
a really good picture, and he's got great numbers against
these batters that he's facing today in his history. He's
a good home pitcher as well. The thing is, oh,
I'm sorry, he's a decent road pitcher as well. But
the thing is, what does that mean? I mean, even
though he's that good, I still have these teams less

(43:49):
than one point apart, which is crazy. Patrick Corbyn's got
that stigma of being a terrible picture and coming into
the season. Everyone except at him probably thought he was
gonna have a two terrible season. I know I did.
But he's a very solid innings eater. He's on a
curve of thirty. I have him ranked fourteen, so above average.

(44:13):
I got Freed ranked twelve, so he's only two points
lower than Nax Freed. That's crazy. So yeah, I think
the Yankees will win the game. But there's no way
I would put minus one fifty on them after trashing
the Yankees. Now I'm going to say I would take them.
So after I trash them, watch them just win the division.

(44:33):
Now that'd be funny. Anyways, I'm not going to play
the Yankees, but they'll probably win.

Speaker 2 (44:39):
I'm now figuring out.

Speaker 1 (44:40):
I'm now seeing what happened in regards to the Yankees
to make the playoffs pricing. When we talked about them
last week, and I said it was a great bet.
It was pre all the moves they made at the
trade deadline. So the Bucks actually liked the deadline they had.
They thought they improved their team because I think the
market price up to that five fifties almost seven to

(45:03):
one range to miss the playoffs after their trade deadlinean
what did the Yankees do. They turned around and got
slapped by the by the Marlins all weekend, and so
that's why it's starting to trend down. So actually, I
now I see like some people in the comments, like
we have one right here said he grabbed five ninety
yesterday and someone else said they had six fifty, you know,

(45:24):
on Friday over the weekend.

Speaker 2 (45:25):
So that's what happened.

Speaker 1 (45:26):
In regards to that, I will I will double down
right here because I think this is the best bet
I can give regarding these two teams right now. I
would bet that now even at plus five fifty plus
five to one, I think there is a great chance
the Yankees missed the playoffs, a lot of which you
know was talked about by the other two guys here.
And as far as this game's concerned, I think the

(45:48):
numbers about right. I would have loved to have a
scenario where the books miss priced this to the point
where I could have got Rangers plus one and a
half at a good number. Not going to get that
at this point, so I think the price is about right.
But listen, the Rangers were a little bit unlucky this weekend.
I thought they played pretty good ball, and they ended
up dropping two of I'm sorry, dropping three of four

(46:09):
to the Mariners in what really was like a pretty
competitive series. You know, they lose three to four on Friday.
They lose five to four yesterday with a couple of
plays that just went against them. In the ninth inning,
I think Boji lost a challenge on one play and
then the Mariners maybe want to challenge on a different
play end up losing five to four. So you know

(46:31):
that the weekend could have gone very different from them
for them if the ball bounced their way. And yet
here they are still in a huge game at home.
I think they're like two back of the Yankees right now.
Corvin's had a very solid season. He's a veteran, keeps
his team in the game, and he's just one of
those lefties that you know, I think could could potentially
keep the Yankees off balance. The one thing I like

(46:51):
about the Rangers that I think really is going to
start to matter. They have all of these solid depth
arms in their bullpen, so they don't need to push
a guy like Corbyn into the sixth inning if they
don't want to. Because even though they lacked the big
time closer, they didn't go out and get the Johan Duran.

Speaker 2 (47:07):
They don't have that guy on the roster.

Speaker 1 (47:08):
They've got a lot of guys that can can come
in in the fifth and the sixth and throw an
inning or two shut it down. And I think the
Rangers are gonna be in a lot of games because
of that, So slightly into the Rangers here for me,
probably won't bet it, but uh again, I'll keep I'll
keep saying it. I think Rangers and the Mariners are
finishing one to two in the West. I think the

(47:29):
Astros will be third, So I'm still high on them
and I would still look to play play them here
if anything. All right, we were rolling along, I've already
locked I kicked the show off, locked the parlay leg
in the first game.

Speaker 2 (47:44):
We still have two more to lock in.

Speaker 1 (47:46):
Do either of you guys want to throw out a
game that we haven't talked about yet, or or do
you know, like Brian, are you sitting there, like, do
I do it with the Marlins?

Speaker 2 (47:55):
Where's your head at right there?

Speaker 3 (47:57):
Yeah? I think it's gonna end up being here with
the Marlins. You're getting in at about one twenty five.
We'll go on twenty five here fading Houston. I'll play
that Miami minus one twenty five. And one of the
reasons I still like it, there's a lot of people

(48:20):
in the chat saying we're fools for playing Miami is
the favorite. So usually when everybody disagrees with me, that's
a pretty good bet. So I'll play Miami here minus
the want twenty five. And yes I am the foal
that is playing Miami.

Speaker 1 (48:34):
I very much agree with you, and we'll let TV
close the show with his We still have ten minutes left,
so I want to go to this game first. Because
there's like three people that have asked about this. Colin
Gregory says, Guardians met. Who better to talk about the
Guardians than Brian Leonard. The Guardians are, they're hanging around.
There are only a few games back about last wild
Card Spot. How are you feeling about them going into

(48:57):
this series?

Speaker 3 (48:58):
Before I get to the breakdown of the game, And yes,
I have not put my plays up. I usually don't
put him up ahead of time, but there is a
game I love. It's either going to be a four
or five. I'm still working on that in my head.
But in the next hour I will have a strong,
really strong play in major League Baseball. Yes, Chaconi against Manea,

(49:20):
Cleveland at the Mets. We're looking at right now about
a one to eighty favorite four of the Mets, eight
and a half to the under, eight to the over
between these two clubs. Cleveland Checkoni's he looks. He seems
to look better when I see him when I watch

(49:41):
the games, and I watch just about every Cleveland game.
He looks better on TV than his results are showing.
He does have that three point seven seven the RA,
but his expected the RAY is four point ninety nine.
Not much of a strikeout pitcher, one twenty two whip.
The best thing he does is his walk right, which

(50:02):
is only it's seven percent, which is only one point
four percent worse or better than the league average barrel
rate eighth percentile heart hit rate eighth average Eckson, we
lost the eighth Chase tenth the Mets. If the Mets
play to their talent, they can get to him, and
I think they may do. So. We're looking at minea

(50:27):
going for the Mets two point eighty eight, two point
eighty eight expected zero point eight seven whip. He's been
very good since he has come back from injury. It
has not taken him a lot of time to get
his control. In fact, his control has been better than
it's been the last two years. Extension eighty six percentile
and he's six point five, so that ball gets on

(50:49):
in a hurry. His fastball velocity unfortunately only in the
thirteenth percentle not a big fastball out of him ninety
one point six and he does throw a sixty six
percent of the time. That is my concern. So we've
got two teams here going against each other, and I
think may have some offensive success in this one. And

(51:11):
as I mentioned, the total is anywhere from eight to
eight and a half, kind of like the over a
little bit here, a little bit I picked. Both teams
will five success. And Cleveland has faced as I mentioned
just the other day, they face some really bad pitching staffs.
We'll see if that continues here. The Mets are not

(51:32):
a bad pitching staff. That might put us slow it
down a little bit. But yeah, just take a look
at that and just just an opinion on the over.

Speaker 4 (51:42):
Guys, go to the replay and leave a comment and
a like and let wayja talk know that you'd like
what we're doing. It helps us out a lot more
than you know. Actually, because Weyju Talk reads all your
comments and if they're really good, then we get lots
of praise.

Speaker 2 (51:57):
So help us out.

Speaker 4 (51:58):
I got a five percent. These two guys are going
to put stuff out too, so go to our pages
and check out what we've got. When you sports bet
for a long long time, you get these alibatrosses that
you stay away from that always get you. And Slade
Checny is that one of them.

Speaker 2 (52:16):
For me.

Speaker 4 (52:17):
I fade him. He pitches seven innings, shut out ball,
and I back him and he gives up seven runs
and two innings. So I always stay away from Sladecni
ever since he was a diamondback. I stay away from him, far,
far far away. But I'll give you my thoughts on
the game, even though I'm not going to bet it.
The Guardians are cranking the ball right now. They rank

(52:40):
seven in all of MLB and run production, where the
Mets rank eighteen, So check for Cleveland in that category. Bullpen.
Their bullpen was trash before the All Star break, but
man have they turned it around. I got them top three,
but I got the Mets top ten. So that's current form,

(53:01):
though it doesn't mean that's that's what they are. It
means that's how they've been performing since the All Star break.
But man Sean and I, he's got great numbers against
his team in his career, and there's no way I
would be able to fade him here where it is. Yeah,
two fifty average against in the six sixty three ops

(53:22):
against in his career against these guys, he's got great
numbers recently. And also he's got good numbers. Let's see,
is this a home game for them? He's home, right, Yeah,
and he's a great he's a great home pitcher as well,
So can't I don't want to back the Mets because

(53:43):
they're hitting and bullpen are subpar compared to Cleveland, but
starting pitcher, I give them the advantage. So I'm gridlocked here,
so I'm not going to take it. And I can't
stand betting Sledge Chaconi games, so won't be doing it.

Speaker 1 (53:59):
I mean, and that's the bullpen in baseball if you
ask me, or at least like one. They're like top three.
I mean, they went out like they kind of quietly.
I feel like they were the team that kind of
quietly made the best moves over the deadline. So like,
I'm not saying that they had the most impactful trade
deadline in comparison to some of these other teams. But
you know, obviously the Padres, I mean, they made a

(54:21):
lot of noise. They they mortgaged the future essentially to
get a lot of these guys. The Mets just kind
of quietly went out got another, you know too high
light two or three high leverage relievers that are all
very solid that I think, you know, bolster the bullpen.
They went out and got another outfield or it wasn't
like anything crazy, But I truly beleate listen, that Dodgers

(54:43):
are deserving of being the favorite in the National League.
I don't think anyone's going to argue with that. If
I had to put one team, if you said, treg,
you could put one team up against the Dodgers, get
you can pick one National League team to sort of
like rival the Dodgers, as like who should be the
co favorite?

Speaker 2 (55:00):
Should be the number two? For me, it's the Mets.

Speaker 1 (55:02):
And it's not even like a question like I think
that this team from a like a collection the collection
of pitchers they have is as strong as any and
their starters are not such that like you know that
I don't think management or the managers and what stuff,
the ones making the decision on the bench.

Speaker 2 (55:21):
And sort of putting the game plan together.

Speaker 1 (55:23):
I feel like they have to push any of these
starters super deep into games.

Speaker 2 (55:27):
It's gonna let.

Speaker 1 (55:27):
Them really really use the full compliment of pitchers in
that bullpen, which is as deep as any other team
in the league right now, especially when you're looking at
leverage arms after what they grabbed at the deadline. And
then you talk about like, I don't even think we've
seen the full impact.

Speaker 2 (55:44):
Of Juan Soto yet.

Speaker 1 (55:45):
I mean, I just think that, like if you if
you look at what he's done throughout his career and
what he did last year as the season went on
for the Yankees, I think he's even hasn't even hit
his ceiling to this point, like he could be that
much better. And then you talk about guys like Lindor
and Pete Alonzo, who we know have been able to
like perform at the highest level. I just I still

(56:07):
think there's so much room for the Mets to as
insane as that sounds, there's actually room.

Speaker 2 (56:12):
For this team to get a lot better. And yet
they're still sitting here.

Speaker 1 (56:16):
You know, basically even with the Phillies and like second
or third best record in the National League. So I'm
very very high in the Mets, the Guardians. I don't
think the bullpen's good. I don't think this team is
good at all. I know that they banged around the
Twins a little bit this weekend. I fully expect them
to play their way out of the race, and I'll
be looking for spots to just ride the Mets this

(56:36):
whole series starting here so strongly into the Mets for
me here, I really think they're just a very very.

Speaker 2 (56:42):
Good, good ball club.

Speaker 1 (56:44):
Okay, seven Tokyo, Brandon, do you know what you're going
to close this parlay out with?

Speaker 4 (56:50):
I do, And unfortunately it's going to be a little
anti climactic, but I'm going to take the Tigers on
the money line today against Minnesota. I'm surprised Min's even out.
I'm seeing one minus one sixty five. Not sure what
Brian has is it around one sixty five?

Speaker 3 (57:07):
Um anywhere from one sixty to one seventy five. Minnesota
hasn't released their pitcher yet, right, yeah.

Speaker 4 (57:14):
Exactly, which is why I say it's a little anti climactic.
But out of all starters versus batters stats today, Casey
miz has the best stats of any starter against the
team he's facing today. He's got a one to eighty
two average against in a five hundred ops against. As
I've said previously, I look at seven fifty ops as

(57:35):
kind of the over under whether you dominate them or not,
and he's one hundred and fifty points under. Great stats.
He's a good home pitcher and Minnesota. Here's an interesting stat.
At the trade deadline, Minnesota traded forty percent of their
roster away, So, man, do they have some holes right now?

(57:56):
And do they have a lack of momentum. I was
actually surprised they took Game three against the Guardians, but
they did so Minnesota doesn't have a starter listed here.
Casey Mice has great stats against these guys. But maybe
it'll be an opener for Minnesota. And if it is,

(58:17):
that's great because their bullpen ranks twenty six out of
thirty according to my numbers. So if it's an opener, great,
that'll give the number six lineup in all of Major
League Baseball plenty of chances to tee off on a
horrible bullpen. Minnesota's hitting twenty fifth out of thirty right now.
So they're the only team, the only team that I
have ranked twenty five or lower in bullpen and batting.

(58:42):
So yeah, I think the Tigers are going to handle business.
The great home team and they just got clobbered, so
they're going to be a little bit angry. Give me
the Tigers here for my parlay.

Speaker 3 (58:53):
Leg got them about one sixty five.

Speaker 2 (58:56):
Yeah, that's what I'm seeing too, Ryan, what do you
think about that game?

Speaker 1 (59:01):
We have a minute or two left, so we might
as well just finish the breakdown of Twins Tigers here.

Speaker 3 (59:06):
Yeah, I watched that entire series from Minnesota. They've got
a weak lineup in the bullpen. The major concern I
have for Minnesota right now is they traded away their
three best arms in the bullpen. That's a major concern.
They played pretty well against Cleveland, but like I said,
Cleveland is playing a lot of bad pitching staffs in

(59:27):
Minnesota is the same way. So yeah, I would definitely
play Detroit here. I'm not a Casey Mais fan, and
the line is not crazy. Although I wish to try
was playing better ball right now.

Speaker 1 (59:41):
Yeah, I was surprised to see Mick Abel starting at
Triple A yesterday. I would have fully expected him to
just join the Twins rotation after, you know, kind.

Speaker 2 (59:50):
Of making that move.

Speaker 1 (59:51):
Maybe they maybe he will this coming weekend when they're home.
But that was surprising to me that he was put
back the trip because I just felt like, you're trading
for him, he's already been to the big leagues. Like
it's it's an odd thing the Twins are doing right
now because even after making those trades, there are only
about six games out, but it certainly feels like they've

(01:00:13):
This is a team that really feels like they've waved
the white flag on this season, like it is it
is that I don't think that this team's going to
come back from that.

Speaker 2 (01:00:22):
Now.

Speaker 1 (01:00:22):
There are some interesting pieces at Triple A. Come give
it three weeks and then like come September, when some
of these guys get up the when Keshel is back,
or they bring up the couple of guys from Double
A that just got to Triple A, Gonzales and Fedco
like some of those guys, they could be an interesting
team in September when like the value is completely.

Speaker 2 (01:00:45):
Swung in the other direction.

Speaker 1 (01:00:46):
But right now, I still feel like they get a
little love from the books for being the Twins, and
this is like a developmental team right now, Like I
think you got to kind of just continue to fade them.
And you're talking about a Tiger's team that's gonna be
a little pissed off. They just dropped two of three
from the Phillies in what was a series that they
could have won all three of those games.

Speaker 2 (01:01:06):
I mean they played.

Speaker 1 (01:01:07):
I thought the Tigers played very good ball this weekend
and probably deserved better than losing two of those three games.
But they were playing against an elite opponent. Now they
get the Twins, I think, yeah again. I'm with you, Brian.
I'm not a huge miz guy, but I also really
don't care for anything the Twins are doing right now,
so I would have to be on with Tokyo Brandon

(01:01:28):
with you, I think it's Tigers or Pass.

Speaker 2 (01:01:31):
We've hit ten o'clock. Let's run it back.

Speaker 1 (01:01:34):
The parlay today plus four thirty. We are plus seven
point four units on the parlay this season. That means
for every one dollar if you were to play them
all equally, every one dollar risk has returned seven dollars
and forty cents.

Speaker 2 (01:01:49):
Listen, we're in August.

Speaker 1 (01:01:51):
That's pretty good that we're still ahead on these and
we're trying to stay that way. So today's parlay plus
four thirty odds. We have three full sides, so make
it nice and easy for you guys. It's Orioles plus
one and a half, Marlin's money line, Tigers money line
plus four thirty. We've got Orioles plus one and a half.

(01:02:11):
Marlin's on the money line, Tiger's on the money line.
That's the three teamer Appreciate you guys tuning in. Almost
a thousand of you in here live today, which we
really appreciate if you did join late. Remember we're always
on demand over on the wager Talk YouTube channel. Head
over there, give us a like, drop us a comment,
it does help, and we'll see you guys in the morning.

Speaker 2 (01:02:32):
More total basis tomorrow, nine am Eastern. See you then,