Total Bases | Beat the Books! Your Daily MLB Betting Fix - Predictions and Best Bets for August 5

Looking for the best MLB picks, predictions, and betting tips for Tuesday, August 5, 2025? Tune in to Total Bases with expert handicappers Adam Trigger, Bryan Leonard and Tokyo Brandon as they break down today’s MLB matchups with sharp insights and actionable advice.

00:00 Introduction
01:14 Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs
11:11 New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers
21:09 Houston Astros vs [Missing opponent]
30:41 Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners
39:55 San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates
52:01 Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins
1:01:53 Parlay of the Day

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:03):
All right, guys, welcome in. It is Tuesday. It's time
for total bases.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
I threw it.

Speaker 1 (00:09):
I need to throw a rally cap on Tokyo Brandon
because things are not going good for me. And then
I got a KBO win, so I'm all ready to
go all jazzed up.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
It's Tuesday.

Speaker 1 (00:17):
We got fifteen games, they're all at night, and we're
gonna get right into it. Brian Leonard, we have a
nationally televised game tonight here in the States. It's a
big matchup in the in the National League Central. Last
night it was a good game back and forth. And
you know, are you getting at all concerned for the

(00:38):
Chicago Cubs right now or is this still a team
that is going to get it right because the last
I think, we're going on a month now, and I
gotta I gotta credit one of our users or one
of our one of our users.

Speaker 2 (00:51):
It's a ridiculous term.

Speaker 1 (00:52):
It's not even what I was trying to say one
of our members in the chat about five weeks ago.

Speaker 2 (00:58):
I forget who it is.

Speaker 1 (00:59):
If you're here now, let us know, because I want
to shout you out, pointed out some reasons, and I
think even gave us some analysis in the comments of
why the Cubs might start to trend downward, and that
is kind of exactly what's happened, probably going back four
or five weeks. Last thing, they come out and lose
to the Reds. So how are you seeing the Cubs

(01:20):
right now and what do you think about this one
Red's Cubs tonight.

Speaker 3 (01:24):
Well, as we have seen, it's a long season. You
have lots of ups and downs as the year goes on.
If you take a look at run differential, they're still
second in baseball and run differential plus one fourteen. Let
me point out that they've been surpassed, not only in
the division by the Milwaukee Brewers with a three run

(01:45):
a three game advantage. The Brewers are now at plus
one twenty one. They're not only the best team from
win percentage, they're the best team from run differential. This
Milwaukee team is built differently than what we see now.
There to remind me a lot of teams that we
grew up on, Kansey, Royal St. Louis Cardinals, teams that run.

(02:08):
You get a guy on base and they can move it.
And the Cubs have some guys who can steal. They
just don't do it as often. Both these teams are
going to be in the playoffs, and I think they're
both going to be dangerous. I'm not giving up on
the Cubs. It's a long season. Getting back to the
Reds game that we're going to talk about today. Yeah,

(02:30):
the Reds are sitting here now, nine and a half
back of the Brewers. They got a five twenty two
winning percentage now, and they have not been hitting very well,
and yet they continue to play pretty well as a
team if you look at their statcast page, and it
does have the hitters as well as the pitchers. And

(02:50):
I seem to stick with the pitchers most of the
time when I'm on the show. But Ellie Dela Cruz
is really the only guy that is having a consistently
good season. Hayes has slumped a little bit. He was
good before Tyler Stevens are coming back this year. Has
not been as good as he's been in the past.
As some of their other guys but they were leaning

(03:11):
on earlier in the season have not hit as well.
Matt mcclean's starting to come out of his slump a
little bit, but he's still His numbers on the season
are not very good. But when you take a look
at the Cubs hitters, Suzuki has been terrific all season long,
Bush Tucker. Even though Tucker is not performing like he
did earlier in the season, he's still a great player.

(03:33):
Dansby Swans is having a nice bounce back season. So
they've got a lot more hitting choices on this team
than the Reds do, and that's something you have to
take into account. Here the two pitchers, Zach Lettel making
his first start coming over from Tampa, and there I
retweeted yesterday there were somebody that put it all together

(03:56):
on the internet. I do a lot of retweeting of
our cools and things that are very good on YouTube
or excuse me, on on the internet. And Zach Lettel
is making his first start here. There was like four
or five pitchers that made their first starts yesterday at
the New ball Clubs.

Speaker 4 (04:15):
They all got behind.

Speaker 3 (04:17):
I'm usually of the feeling that these guys, especially if
you're coming over from a team that's not in contention,
this is like a wake up call. This team wants you.
And usually I like the betting list teams, thank god
it is. And yesterday I had a losing day Anyway,
my five percent was the Cleveland team total under They
get shut out eight of the nine innings and they

(04:38):
still reach scoring five runs in the sixth ugly loss there.

Speaker 4 (04:42):
But yeah, Zetel coming over.

Speaker 3 (04:45):
His best stuff is the walk rate ninety nine percent
toel Chase right eighty four. It's got a three point
five eighty RA four point six to two expected, one
point one two whip. Now coming over and pitching for
the Reds, I would expect his numbers to decline a
little bit if you look at his blue which.

Speaker 4 (05:07):
Is not good.

Speaker 3 (05:07):
His barrel rate ten percentile struck out R eight twelve.
We have fourteenth average X velocity fifteenth. This is not
the best stadium for him. Although for some reason some
of the you know, a couple of these Abbott and
a few others have had success in here being flyball pitchers.
We'll see how it goes. Maybe they've got some magic pills.

(05:29):
They are taken over there in Cincinnati. Imanaga going for
the Cubs. He's headed up and down second half of
the season. Three point twenty five ERA, three point eight
seven expected. So both these pictures are pitching over their
heads right now. His whip is one point oh four
ground bowl rate third percent out in Chicago. When the

(05:49):
wind's blown out, he's in trouble. And when we're looking
at the park factors for today in the Wrigley Field,
the winds blowing in. So that's a good thing for him,
probably good thing also for his counterpart on the mound
here on the line currently in this one with Tampa
Bay playing excuse me, Tampa Bay. I'm still thinking of

(06:11):
his old team for Cincinnati playing the Cubs. We've got
imanago about him now, one seventy five favorite seven and
a half here. Anytime you see a seven and a
half in a Cubs game, that tells you the wind
is blowing in here. I prefer the offense is a
little bit more. I think both these pitchers, as I
pointed out, been a little bit lucky so far this season.

(06:32):
I prefer the over a little bit. Seven and a
half's not that hard to get there, but without the
home runs, and just according to the park factorss, the
home runs for Regally Field tonight will be minus twenty
three percent of what they normally have. So the home
runs may not get there tonight, but the runs are
only minus ten percent, and you're for getting a seven

(06:52):
and a half.

Speaker 4 (06:53):
That's pretty good. So I kind of lead with the
over between these two teams.

Speaker 5 (06:58):
So yesterday I cashed my five percent and my four percent,
so I was pretty happy. It was a kind of
a big day. And I just went two and one
in KBO as well, so rolling pretty well after a
disastrous week last week. So it's good. Today's five dollars Tuesday, everyone.
I already have my play up. I'm sure these two
guys are going to or already have a play up.

(07:21):
Go to our pages see what we got for five
bucks today. I'm not gonna play this game, so I'll
make it very short. But neither one of these teams
is ripping the cover off the ball here, and I
don't really trust either bullpen. Neither pitcher is either pitching
that great. But what I do like is Lattel's numbers

(07:42):
against these Cubs in his career two eleven average against
six ninety seven OPS against very good numbers. And he's
actually a pretty good road pitcher. Since he just got traded,
every game is going to be on the road for him,
even in Cincinnati, because he's not used to it. Imanaga
has a great numbers against these batters as well, two

(08:02):
thirty five against average and a five seventy two. Oh
ps e. Monaga's numbers are actually a little bit better,
So I guess first five under. I'm gonna go directly
against what Brian said, first first five under, but three
and a half. Look, I'm looking at Pinnacle and there's
no first five under yet, So I am guessing this

(08:24):
is going to be three and a half. Since the
game total seven a half. Three and a half so
hard to bet, so I'm probably not going to bet
it in Major league. You know, one one, a couple
of walks and a bloop and a blast and boom,
You're you're under is done. So I won't play it,
but if I were to, that would be the way
I would go.

Speaker 2 (08:41):
Uh is that Rod Peru? He shouts you out TV.

Speaker 1 (08:45):
He says, great wins on your five and four percent plays,
And I know it's a good name, that's a good
name if that's a playoff.

Speaker 5 (08:53):
One of the best of all time.

Speaker 1 (08:55):
Fantastic, But he shouts you out for the five percent
and the four percent win.

Speaker 5 (09:02):
Yeh.

Speaker 1 (09:02):
I've got some concerns with the Cubs right now. The
just like a like, the body language is horrible if
you watch that get I don't know what Kyle Tucker's
deal is. I feel like he's just like like soft,
like not mentally tough at this point. And then you've
got of course, you know, they go out and trade.
And now Mike sarkis headed to the i L, where

(09:24):
he's spent the majority of his career.

Speaker 2 (09:26):
I actually feel horrible for him.

Speaker 1 (09:29):
That is, that just sucks for him because he's finally
gotten you know, kind of gotten back.

Speaker 2 (09:34):
He's having a good season, and back to the i
L he goes. So they're gonna have to figure out, uh,
what to do about.

Speaker 1 (09:39):
That rotation spot at this price, the way things are
sort of going for the Cubs at the moment, there's
no chance I could play the Cubs here.

Speaker 4 (09:48):
Now.

Speaker 1 (09:49):
Brian makes a good point. I I got caught on
one of those last night. I had the raise with
Adrian Hauser. Awful And he's right like that that that's
a concern. It It's definitely happened so far. These guys,
the pitchers that are getting to their new destination have
not been very good. So again, I do have some

(10:11):
concerns with the Cubs. You pull up the standings, they're
still tied with the Dodgers for the second best record
in the league.

Speaker 2 (10:17):
But I've got to go back five weeks.

Speaker 1 (10:19):
There was a there was a time where I said
the Cubs are going to run away with this division.
Now they're three back of the Brewers, and they're the
clear second team at this point. If you've watched the
Brewers play and you've watched the Cubs play, I mean
it's like not close. The Brewers appear to be the
far better team. So yeah, I have some concerns with
this Cubs team, and there's no chance I can lay

(10:40):
a price like that, So it would be reds or pass.
Bryan said, he retweets some stuff. I don't retweet often.
I tweet a lot. I don't just retweet stuffed often often.
But I did have to retweet Max Freed firing the
ball in the center field last night because why not.

Speaker 2 (10:57):
I mean, it just continues to get bad for the Yankees.

Speaker 1 (11:02):
Uh, they take a lead into the ninth Brian Leonard
and then David Williams comes in, gives the game up
and Josh Jones Josh Younges Josh Younges batflip hasn't landed yet.
Three run homer he threw the bat basically off the
roof of the stadium.

Speaker 2 (11:19):
It was awesome, and.

Speaker 1 (11:22):
It's been it's been a tough weekend for the Yankees.
They get their guy back tonight, supposedly Aaron Judge back
in the lineup today today. Yeah, but who wants any
part of this Yankees team right now?

Speaker 2 (11:34):
Even with Judge? What do you think, Brian.

Speaker 3 (11:38):
Current line in this one Yankees of Texas. We've got
Will Warren, who's up and down more than just about
anybody in baseball, going against Nathan Eovaldi, who has been
the most consistent pitcher in the major leagues.

Speaker 4 (11:51):
You know what you're gonna get out of Texas. You
don't know what you're gonna get out of the Yankees here.

Speaker 3 (11:55):
Eovaldi's about a one twenty three favorite total of eight
to the over or eight and a half to the under.

Speaker 4 (12:02):
Here.

Speaker 3 (12:03):
I've talked about Texas being a really good pitchers ballpark.
I think Ivaldi will continue to have some success there.
But when you take a look at the way these
teams have gone so far, the Yankees are definitely needing
that boost of getting getting him back, and normally it
takes some time when you come back from sitting out,

(12:24):
so I wouldn't expect him to, you know, hit a
homer or anything like that tonight. It's gonna take a
little bit for him to get back in the groove.

Speaker 4 (12:32):
Will Warren, I've.

Speaker 3 (12:33):
Talked about his inconsistencies four point sixty four e r
A four point zero nine expected one point four to
three whip. You take a look at his game logs.
His last two have been pretty good. He placed the face,
the Phillies and the Rays. Before that, he got bombed
by the Braves a couple of good ones before that.
Then he'd gotten bombed by Toronto. He's a walking time bomb.

(12:58):
There's there's some I follow on podcasts of stuff that
are in the fantasy world. They call him a cherry
bomb because he could be really good all the side.
He just blows up, and that's what he's done. His
off speed run value for Will Warren is in the
first percentile, breaking ball run value in the ninth average

(13:19):
ex velocity, fifteenth, chase rate, thirteenth, walks too many people
in the eighteenth hard hit twenty second.

Speaker 4 (13:25):
He's not a guy I'm looking to back.

Speaker 3 (13:27):
It's it's just something that you want more consistency, than
what he has gotten. You know, he's had two seasons now,
he's got a five point six ORA, one point five
to one WHIP.

Speaker 4 (13:38):
I don't care who you.

Speaker 3 (13:38):
Play for, even if you're playing for Colorado, those are
not good numbers. So I want no part of will
Warren Eovaldi, as I said, the most consistent pitcher in baseball.
One point four to nine ERA obviously is expected. The
ra is going to be higher three point twenty six.
He's not going to end the year with a one
point four nine ERA, but you know, the last two

(14:00):
years he was three point eight three point sixty three.
And the way this stadium has been the results this year,
he could keep it around the two to two and
a half range at the end of the season, and
that's excellent. All his numbers are great. Pitching run value
ninety nine percent, tile fastball run value ninety fourth, recky
run value ninety second, off speed ninety eighth. He's good

(14:23):
basically everything he does. He doesn't overthrow the four seamer,
and his fastball is ninety four percent for ninety four
miles an hour, and which is about a mile an
hour worse than measor League Baseball. But it only throws
at twenty eight percent of the time. He's basically a
four pisce pitcher and he's had a lot of success.
I would look for more of that here. The Yankees

(14:43):
are not a team and looking to back. Texas needs
this win just as bad, if not more than the
Yankees do. Texas trying to fight their way past the
Yankees here in that wildcard race. This is a huge,
huge series for Texas after struggling against Seattle. They need
to really come out and win the series against the Yankees.

(15:05):
I like Texas here, and I think there's value here
anything in the one twenty three year under range. I
think you've got some nice value here on Texas.

Speaker 5 (15:16):
Yeah, Will Warren might have the biggest dichotomy and splits
home road away. He's two eight eight. He's got a
two eight eight e RA at home and a seven
two oe er in the road, so he is absolutely
stunk on the road. The problem is against these Texas
batters in his career, He's only got twenty two at
bats against, but he did pretty well, holding him to

(15:37):
two twenty seven and a five thirty four ohps. So
kind of torn on this one, like Brian, said, Evaldi,
He's good no matter what. I actually wasn't a huge
Evaldi fan when he pitched for Boston and in the past.
But this year, I don't know test that guy. Something's
going on. Man, he's just a different guy this year.

(16:01):
But yeah, that being said, I don't know which Will
Warren's gonna show up. Is it gonna be the road
Will Warren or the guy who's good against these batters?
Will Warren sample size against these batters is not real,
real large, so I would think the horrible road Will
Warren will show up here. But I'm not gonna I'm

(16:22):
not gonna test that. I'm gonna go with what I know.
And I know Ivaldi is good. I know Ivaldi has
good stats against these Yankees. Uh and Texas's bullpen is
playing pretty well. So I think the Yankees team total
under I think it's four and a half. If it's
four and a half, I'll jump all over it. If

(16:42):
it's three and a half, I'll think about it. But
that would be the way I would lean in this.

Speaker 4 (16:45):
One three and a half to the over minus one thirty.

Speaker 5 (16:48):
And I'll have to think about it.

Speaker 1 (16:53):
If you told me Will Warren was gonna be starting
games for the Yankees in August. I would have set
up at the beginning of the season, and I always said, wow,
he must he must have had a breakout year that
you know, he must have. He must be just dealing,
and he must have forced his way into that rotation
because last year he got called up and he got
crushed and I had, you know, I felt like he
was a guy that beat Scranton for most of the

(17:14):
year and you would have to pitch his way into
the rotation. Well that didn't happen because the Yankees had
numerous injuries to their rotation. And you know, here we
are in August, and the Yankees are supposedly a playoff team,
even though the three of us don't really think they're
necessarily a playoff team, and Will Warren is still starting
games every fifth day, four six four yr one point

(17:35):
four to three whip. It hasn't been hasn't been terrible,
but it's also like, you know, not like I still
think the Yankees get positioned at this as this elite
team or as like one of the elite teams, and
yet that's what they're throwing out there every fifth day.
So that's Issue number one. Issue number two and I
was I was anti. I was anti like a lot

(17:56):
of Yankee fans and a lot of just people in general.
It really dislike Aaron Boone and I was never on that.
I never liked that sort of narrative because I do
think that, you know, the players like him, and I
think he brings other things to the table there. But
at some point, like the just the lack of like
baseball IQ and just mistake, like someone needs to fall

(18:19):
on the sword for that, and it's probably got to
be the coach. Like here, I'll just make a point
last year to this year, the Yankees did a lot
of this same stuff last year, base running mistakes, errors,
stuff like that, but they made it to the World
Series and it didn't it didn't come back to bite
them as much because they were a better team. Last
year's Yankees team was just better than this year's Yankees team.

(18:41):
Juan Soto, they more timely, hitting, a little bit more
bullpen like in terms of like the numbers were better.
So so they had a better team last year and
they were able to overcome the mistakes. The team isn't
as good this year. They've been without Aaron Judge for
what about two weeks now, and listen, it's major League baseball.

(19:02):
It's very difficult to overcome getting picked off. For Josh
Chisholm getting picked off first base, just sleeping Austin Wells,
forgetting that there's three outs in an inning, Max Freed
firing a ball in the center field in a spot
where he probably didn't even really need to do that
at that point in the game, just bear down and
get the out, Like what are we doing here? So

(19:23):
that's the type of stuff where like they don't have
the roster to overcome that this year. You can't make
two three errs a game, in my opinion, with this
Yankees team and overcome that. So for that reason, I'm
just going to continue to play against the Yankees until
further notice.

Speaker 2 (19:40):
It would have to be Rangers or pass here.

Speaker 1 (19:42):
And with how consistently good Eabaldi's been, and now that
the Rangers have a little momentum, this might be the
leg I throw in the parlay. I'll think about it
as the show goes on. Ethan says, so glad I
passed on my leans of the Giants and Yankees yesterday. Hey,
sometimes leaving one off is as good as a win
in the long run. If you can, if you can
avoid a loss, it is as good as a win.

Speaker 2 (20:05):
So Rangers are passed for me. Uh in that one.
It will circle back. We have a comment here.

Speaker 1 (20:11):
Let drig sporting the Chickens. That's not a chicken. I
guess it could be a type of chicken. Anyone knows
what that is. It's a good guess. It's it's it's
not Louisville, but it's a good guess. Brian Leonard, you
got do you have the team?

Speaker 5 (20:25):
No?

Speaker 4 (20:25):
I don't.

Speaker 2 (20:27):
That is the hen close.

Speaker 1 (20:30):
It's the Rochester red Wings. So I don't know what
a red Wing is. Is that a chicken or is it.

Speaker 4 (20:36):
Just a cardinal? Right?

Speaker 5 (20:38):
It's a Detroit play.

Speaker 1 (20:41):
Yeah, I guess so anyway, Yeah, Rochester red Wings triple
a affiliate of the Washington Nationals. Great little ballpark about
ninety minutes from about hour and forty five minutes from
where I live.

Speaker 5 (20:56):
To be Nationals hats.

Speaker 2 (21:00):
I don't own a Nationals hat.

Speaker 1 (21:01):
I've actually that's a ballpark they've never been to. I'll
get down of DC sometimes, all right, turnbucle Tommy Astros
was free last night. You can't take the Marlins as
a favorite. Astros at one fifteen was nuts. They are
significantly better teams. So I agree, I agree.

Speaker 2 (21:19):
With some of that.

Speaker 1 (21:20):
I disagree with some of that. Significantly better team, I don't.
I disagree that that. I'll disagree.

Speaker 2 (21:26):
I don't. I don't think they are significantly better. Now.
If you want to say, like you know, based on
full body of work this year, that they're better than
the market Marlins, I can live with that.

Speaker 1 (21:35):
However, I do think it was turnbucle Tommy yesterday that
was basically like, you can't bet the Marlins at that price,
And in hindsight, I kind of agree with that a
little bit. Like where the market ended up on that game,
I think they were man. I think the Marlins got
all the way up to a dollar thirty favorite at
one point, Brian Leonard and and lo and behold, like

(21:56):
you kind of just knew what was coming, and especially
and then early in the game very apparent that the
juice had run out a little bit for the Marlins
and the Astro's got a much needed win.

Speaker 2 (22:06):
But today is a new day. This one's interesting.

Speaker 1 (22:09):
Raghetty is back, and Cal Quantrill has looked better than
he's supposed to look recently. Do you see Astros getting
some momentum here or do you like the Marlins in
this one?

Speaker 3 (22:22):
Yeah, yesterday, if you tuned in for the first time
and you saw what I was leaning towards or whatever,
I could have gone over the entire day. I talked
about Baltimore. Baltimore took that three or nothing late. I thought, Oh,
I'm feeling pretty good, and then all of a sudden
they give up what ten eleven straight run?

Speaker 4 (22:39):
Fourteenth straight run? So crazy?

Speaker 3 (22:42):
Yeah, nothing I touched yesterday work, So I apologize for that.
You have those kind of days every once in a while.
But Houston on the road against Miami. I had Miami yesterday.
I used him in my parlay and agave him does
the smaller play for clients and my free play. Houston

(23:04):
is basically about a one ten, one fifteenth favorite according
to our line service oddslogic dot com an excellent line service.
They don't have Houston's starting picture listed going against Quantrell
total on this is eight. Have you heard anything else
as to Houston and who they're starting, Adam your muted.

Speaker 1 (23:29):
I thought it might be Spencer Raghetty, who's been rehabbing.
I think it's like his turn so that was one.

Speaker 2 (23:35):
I had jotted down.

Speaker 1 (23:36):
But I actually if it's not him, then I'm not
really quite sure who they're going to go with.

Speaker 4 (23:41):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (23:41):
I like Arraghetty, but I don't know if it's going
to be his start or not. I talked about Quatrill
on the road. Yes, on the road.

Speaker 2 (23:51):
Sorry, let me can I jump in real quick?

Speaker 1 (23:53):
Yes, but it's so one of the beat writers tweeted,
Araghetty's been pushed back to Wednesday, So it looks like
a true bullpen game for the Astros today.

Speaker 3 (24:03):
Well, then the first thing we need to check out
is the Astros bullpen availability, and you can do that
over a fang Roster resources. Great, great website here. Okay,
the Astros, when you take a look at their bullpen,
they look at pretty good shape. Yesterday I bray you

(24:25):
seventeen pitches, King twenty six pitches, Petri Nora and Ares,
who has been a nice pick up for them, sixteen pitches,
so they're in pretty good shape here. They've got nobody
that's pitched two games in a row here or pitched
two out of three, so they're in pretty good shape
here from a bullpen standpoint, and they have a pretty
decent bullpen. We'll see how that goes for them. When

(24:49):
I take a look at the sad cast numbers here
I've talked about calla Quantrill four point seventy nine, four
point eight, oh expected one point three to one whip.
He's doesn't walk any better, seventy seventh percentile in that
regard six point four walks. Not a big strikeout guy,

(25:12):
although it is higher than has been since twenty twenty one,
so he's getting a little bit more strikeouts, but he's
not a stracted guy. He's gonna try to keep it
a little bit off balance. Throws six different pitches eight
percent or high on nothing more than twenty two percent,
which is his cutter. So he's a guy I find
value in guys that aren't major strikeout pitchers. I think

(25:33):
a lot of people give up on him, and.

Speaker 4 (25:35):
He's a guy I like. He was very good as
of late.

Speaker 3 (25:39):
But it was pointed out that Houston coming back, and
line's basically a pick him right now.

Speaker 4 (25:48):
With that number, I kind of like Miami a little
bit here.

Speaker 3 (25:51):
I won't get it, probably won't get involved, not enough
for a Quantrill to shout out Houston's offense. So I'll
probably pass here until we actually find out what's going on.
If it's a bullpen game, I would expect the Miami
side to take some money. So if you like Miami
and you think it's going to be a bullpen game
right now, you know a pinnacle you can get plus

(26:11):
one on one for the home home team, So that's
not bad.

Speaker 5 (26:17):
Five dollars Tuesday, guys, get our best bets for five bucks.
All of us will probably have one mind's out already,
and along with our five dollars plays, all three of
us usually put out a free play as well. So
go check our page. It's scrolling down there at the bottom.
Take ten seconds and see what we got at least
at least swoop up our free plays there. So without

(26:42):
a starter listed for the Astros, I'm going to find
it hard to bet this game, but I will share
my rankings. Cal Quantrell gets a really bad rap, but
his numbers are not as bad as his reputation, and

(27:02):
his numbers against the Astros are not horrible. They're not good,
they're not horrible. In his career two eighty nine average
against It's yeah, it's pretty bad. Seven ninety seven oh ps,
So anything over seven fifty is not good and he
ranks in the bottom one third of pitchers, So the
problem is the Astros are not really tearing the cover

(27:23):
off the ball right now. I got him ranked nineteen
in batting. I got Miami ranked better at hitting better
in the bullpen, but they're starting a very questionable picture,
so I would definitely not play a side here. One
interesting thing is cal Quantrell. He doesn't strike people out.

(27:44):
He's a very low strikeout guy. In his career against
this team. He's averaging only two point three strikeouts per
start against the Astros, and I projected him at three
point seven today. So maybe if his strikeout prop if
you're lucky enough to get a four and a half,
bet that the under in strikeouts for Calica Quantrell. If

(28:04):
it's three and a half m that's exactly what I'm
predicting it, so I'd lay off. That would be the
only way I would go here.

Speaker 3 (28:11):
I do want to point out and as last fourteen starts,
he's allowed three earned runs or less in thirteen of
the fourteen, So yeah, I just he got rick pretty
well early in the season, but now he's pitching much better.
So I think you need to you need to take
those year to date numbers a little bit with a

(28:31):
grund salt.

Speaker 5 (28:33):
Yeah, and also, like I said, he's not as bad
as his reputation.

Speaker 1 (28:38):
Well yeah, I mean, so you do know who's starting
for the Astros. You know, you know it's just a
bullpen game. They've already they pretty much announced that. So
it's it's really just do you like the Astros collection
of depth arms in their bullpen's That's how you evaluate
the Astros pitching here.

Speaker 2 (28:56):
I am kind of indifferent on that.

Speaker 1 (28:59):
I think they could pretend piece it together, but like
it's definitely something that I'm not like really scared.

Speaker 2 (29:04):
To play against.

Speaker 1 (29:05):
Now, you talked about Quantrill one of the things I
talked about after his last start. I mean, he was
throwing like ninety seven. That was like really impressive. I again,
I'm willing to trust what the Marlins are doing with
their their pitching at all levels at this point, and
you got cal Quantrell coming out throwing ninety I think
he touched ninety seven ninety eight on the on the

(29:26):
gun in his last start.

Speaker 2 (29:28):
Start before that, he was very solid.

Speaker 1 (29:29):
I believe he beat the Brewers on the road, so
he's looked pretty good.

Speaker 2 (29:34):
I don't. I guess I'm a little bit.

Speaker 1 (29:38):
Concerned that I step in and then he maybe regresses
a little bit, because we know, you know, he's had
stretches where he's not great. But I think the bigger
concern here for me is the Marlins had played so
well last week they lost, and with these younger teams,
sometimes one loss becomes two, becomes three, so on and

(29:58):
so forth.

Speaker 2 (29:58):
So my decision was easy here.

Speaker 1 (30:00):
I thought this might be Arraghetty, and he was someone
that I didn't think threw the ball particularly well down
at sugar Land. Granted he went up against a very
good to COMBA lineup last week, but they were all
over him. I was certain that they would have had
him start one more game down at sugar Land.

Speaker 2 (30:18):
It looks like that's not going to be the case.

Speaker 1 (30:19):
So most likely going to be a spectator here, and
I'll see if I can find a way in tomorrow,
because again I think if the Marlins had a little
bit of momentum tonight, tomorrow might be the day to
play them. Raghetty did not look good in his most
recent rehab start.

Speaker 2 (30:36):
All right, let's move on.

Speaker 1 (30:37):
We have Ethan Bainbridge, says White, Sox plus one and
a half, a day off with short travel for the Socks.
Mariners off three straight divisional series in a very tight
division race, took three or four in the most recent
series for Texas, momentum stopper.

Speaker 2 (30:53):
With the day off.

Speaker 1 (30:53):
Yeah, not only did they take three or four from Texas, Ethan,
but they easily could have lost three of four. That
was a very very competitive series and it was a
one of those ones where the Mariners just got the
breaks they I believe that. On Sunday, I think Brian,
they won two challenges in the ninth inning to hold
off a five for our win, so game of inches.

(31:16):
As we always talk about the Mariners, you know, you
make your own luck to an extent, But the Mariners
got the breaks this weekend. And yeah, so maybe they
are a little bit inflated here. White Sox a team
we've liked, team that's played better. How are you seeing
this one? Do you agree with Ethan's assessment of White
Sox plus one and a half?

Speaker 3 (31:33):
Well, if you don't take one and a half, you
want to do so in a low total game, and
that's what you're getting here. You're getting seven and a
half under twenty between the White Sox and seat. I've
got Martin going against Wu Woo's two fifty range here,
which is a little bit higher than I want to play.
Because the White Sox offense is playing a lot better

(31:56):
than it was earlier in the season. They finally got
an actual major league lineup, so to catch them, you
can catch upwards of two twenty coming back that way.
That would be the only way I would look here.
Brian wu is a pitcher I really love, but lately
he's he's had some up and down games. Last time out,

(32:19):
he gave up five earned runs and six and a
third against the Athletics. Before that, against the Angels, he
was pretty good. But he got hit pretty well against
the Astros four and runs the sixth innings, So he's
not on his best behavior as of now. But three
point one one ERA coming on the heels of a
two point eight nine last year. This is a guy

(32:41):
that could pitch and and I love him. But Barrel
Ray twenty seventh percentile breaking ball run value twelve. He
can be hit, still throws a f four seamer too much.
If you ask me, forty five percent of the times
it is a little bit stronger than league average. But
when you throw those fast balls, anybody can hit him,

(33:01):
even a team like the Chicago White Sox. Davis Martin
going for the White Sox is the Ray is now
down below four on the season. Three point eighty four
was expected theras five point three three. He's been a
little bit lucky one point twenty six whip. If you
look at his stat cast page. He's a great ground
ball pitcher eighty eighth PERCENTLE. Doesn't walk a lot of
players seventy first PERCENTLE. But everything else is in the blue.

(33:25):
Breaking run value sixth percentl expected the RA eighth betting average,
fourth walk, hardhit raate eleventh, strike out ray twelfth In
fact is strike out minus walk RADE is less than
ten nine point seven. He's not as good as what
he has shown from that era that he has right now,

(33:45):
so I would expect Seattle to have a little bit
of success against him. You would expect WU to bounce
back a little bit, but he's not coming in off
of a good run. One and a half here for
the White Sox would be a value if I thought
Martin co Would keep Seattle to you know, four runs.

(34:09):
If it gets to five, that means the White size
need to score four runs to get the cover. I
don't know if they will here. So I laaned Chicago
with that one and a half, but not enough to
make it a play.

Speaker 5 (34:22):
So I looked at Davis Martin's stats against these Seattle batters,
and he's got twenty eight at bats against, one forty
three average against and a four fifty oh ps. That's
three hundred points less than the Mendoza line for good
or bad. So he has absolutely dominated these Seattle batters. Now,

(34:44):
is the sample size big enough to trust it? Is
the next question? And also is his four point seven
road er going to trump those numbers? Yes or no?
So it's a little bit of a little bit of
a conundrum there, so I'm probably going to stay away
from it. But Seattle's bats have been a little bit cold,
that's something to consider. Chicago has been actually hitting the

(35:08):
ball quite well. Considering they're a very bad team, they
have been hitting the ball well, and WU has really
good numbers against them. But his sample size is really small.
So despite giving up what is it, four two five
earned in his last three starts something like that, his
whip is still zero nine to seven, which is pretty

(35:30):
amazing and his home ERA is two two nine, which
is really good. Although era is not the tell all statistic,
but in a lot of in forty plus innings, if
your ERA is two one one, it certainly says that
you're keeping the ball in the park. So I would
think a first five innings under would be appropriate for

(35:51):
this game. Uh, if you can get a four and
a half under four and a half for the first five,
I think that's good. The first five team total for
Seattle two and a half, and I'm a little tempted
to take that. You have to juggle whether Martin's sample
size against the Mariners is good enough to overcome his
four point seven ROADI or a witch is which Seattle's

(36:13):
bats are pretty cold though, so I might I might
go with that Seattle team total first five under two.

Speaker 4 (36:19):
And a half.

Speaker 1 (36:21):
Yeah, Seattle has cool a little bit at the play,
and we've kind of talked about it this season. They're
definitely a team that is built more for the road
than their home ballpark, just with the way that they are,
you know, the their very home run reliant, at least
they they have been, and I don't really think a
Gino and Naylor changed that. I still think it's a
team that that's very much just you know, waiting for that,

(36:45):
you know, that big blast to generate offense with Brian Davis.
Martin's not the guy that I want to back in
this rotation. So for me, this was a I know,
you got people are like, oh, he's gonna one hundred percent,
come on here, sate White Sox one and a half. Well,
I'm not going to tell you to lay two dollars
with the Mariners, that's for certain. But when I look

(37:05):
at this series a three game set, this would probably
be the least like the worst of the three spots
for me. So if I look at this series Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday,
I see like the White Sox plus one and a
half is likely going to be playable all three days.
It's probably gonna be right in this same range because
you're looking at wu Kirby Gilbert for the Mariners, so

(37:27):
you've got to think they're likely a two dollars favorite
or more in every one of those games. This would
be the least of the three, the my least favorite
spot of the three, So I'm probably not gonna play this.
I will likely hope for a Mariner's convincing win, maybe
actually like a two or three run win where they
use some bullpen because I just think there's gonna be
better spots to play the White Sox.

Speaker 2 (37:48):
Later in the week, Go Ahead Bright.

Speaker 3 (37:52):
Tokyo mentioned the Mendoza line by mistake, I think, but
do you do you guys know you're you know, you're
a little bit younger, trade you know what the Mendoza
line is and why it's it's called the Mendoza.

Speaker 1 (38:08):
Line is two hundred batting average, and it's called that
because it was it like a player named Mendoza was
either a career two hundred hitter. He was like always
at two hundred.

Speaker 3 (38:18):
Veral Mendoza played in I believe it was the seventies
for the Pirates.

Speaker 4 (38:23):
He is now.

Speaker 3 (38:26):
He's now known for his bad hitting and people don't
even know what he what he's known for. But the
reason why I point that out is the catcher for
the Indians or the Guardians he played yesterday, and it's
it's a situation where he was mentioned at the game

(38:47):
on on the game because his poor hitting and he's
been in the league for so long and let me
just get up here and look at the stats here.
But it's Uh, it's Austin Hedges and he's hitting like
one thirty four and his career average is about one
eighty four. But yet he's playing in i think his

(39:09):
eleventh major league season and they said this is the
most games, most season since the player has ever played
in the major leagues with a bad career batting average
of below two hundred. And he's just a great defensive player,
but he's a terrible hitter. And when he gets and
when Hedgehog gets a hit up of you, you need

(39:29):
to be a little bit embarrassed.

Speaker 2 (39:32):
That's a great story. Yeah, that's that's a really interesting Uh.

Speaker 1 (39:35):
It's not something I've never really thought about, but that
is totally makes sense that it would be a good
defensive catcher though, because that is like a you take
the zero for three.

Speaker 2 (39:44):
At the bottom of that order.

Speaker 1 (39:45):
If you can have a guy that's really good defensive
catcher that can handle the pitching staff, control the run
game is far more valuable in my opinion, than a
couple of hits. So that's interesting stuff. Brian, great, great stuff.
Let's go to Gene. He says, giants minus one thirty
five with Webb looks cheap. How did you guys like

(40:06):
that Bristol series. I thought the Bristol Series was a
great idea. They just got screwed by the weather. I
think if it was a nice night, it would have
gone off without a hitch. It would have been it
would have been a very fun sort of thing. I mean,
it just they kind of got screwed by the weather.
But you know, always good to see baseball get a
showcase like that standalone National TV Fox Saturday Night. That

(40:29):
was cool as far as the game is concerned. Brian
Leonard Giants Pirates, This was an interesting This was a
crazy one.

Speaker 2 (40:35):
Yesterday.

Speaker 1 (40:35):
Look like the Giants were going to cruise to a win,
and suddenly here come those Pittsburgh Pirates suddenly playing good
ball in spite of what I consider to be leaving
some of their better players down at Triple A. Talked
about it yesterday. So the Pirates get the walk off.
Do the Pirates bring that momentum into today? Do you
like them again?

Speaker 2 (40:54):
Here?

Speaker 3 (40:55):
I'll talk about the Raceway game. First off, I'm a heavy,
said guy. I like to eat, and there was a
lot of people saying that they were serving hot dogs
without the bunds because they didn't order enough bunds and
they were sure they were selling nachos without cheese because
they didn't have enough cheese. From what I could tell,
it was a complete disaster. It was a good idea,

(41:16):
but it was not well prepared for. They said it
was the fire You remember that concert thing, firefat Yeah, yeah,
of Major League Baseball.

Speaker 4 (41:27):
But yeah, Web's going against Burrows here. Yeah. Webbs looks
a little bit.

Speaker 3 (41:32):
Cheap, but he has not been pitching well as yet late,
and he hasn't gotten a lot of runts apart. Burrows
is a guy who's gotten better as the season goes on.
They keep talking about bringing some other guys up from
the miners, but Burrows has been one of the most
consistent pitchers. He's done pretty well. Currentline, Webb's about a
one thirty three favorite and a total of seven and

(41:52):
a half to the under. The under makes a lot
of sense to me based on Webb's history and all
also what's been going on with Burrows. And I don't
think either team is very good offensively. They ever wants
a while these surprising and get ten runs or so,
but neither one really. He has been very good over
the last month or so. Logan Web three point three

(42:16):
one ERA, three point six to three expected, one point
two five WEB. Yet he's only got a nine and
eight record. In fact, the last three years he's won
thirty three games and he's lost thirty one games, and
he's one of the top five pitchers in Major League Baseball,
just not getting any run support when he pitches. He's
got some great numbers out there. I really like him,

(42:38):
but you know what you're gonna get out of him,
and he's usually very consistent. And that's the one thing
we like about Logan Web going up against Mike Burrows here,
and Burrows is starting to show some red on his
datcast page. He's only got one win of the season.
One win yes last year, he's had thirteen games this year,
only well twelve starts, he's got one win. He's very

(42:59):
som Verlander, who, by the ways, pitching his best ball
of the season. Really nice start from me yesterday. But
Burrow's three point eight eighty RA expect at three point
sixty eight, his whip is one point twenty six. He's
a middling pitcher when you take a look at stat
cast page. Very good at offspreed run value ninety second
percentile doesn't get the chases of seventeen. Everything else is

(43:21):
between thirty four and sixty six percentile. So he's basically
your league average pitcher. But I like the way he's
pitching more now. He's doing much better in that regard.
Kind of like the under here. Don't think either team
is going to have much offensive success. Let's take a
look at the ballpark factors here in Pittsburgh, wins blowing
in a little bit. Home runs should be twenty four

(43:43):
percent less than normal runs about even. Yeah, I kind
of like the under in this one.

Speaker 5 (43:51):
Yeah, guys, do us a huge favorite. Go to the
replay here and leave us a comment, something positive or
negative either way. We all check your comment. Yeah, all
three of us check your comments, and we we do
answer them as well. So give us a comment, give
us a like. Tell wager Talk that you're enjoying the show,

(44:13):
because in the live chat you're giving us tons of
positive energy, so give us some of that on the
replay as well. It helps Wager Talk understand that baseball
is a wonderful sport and that our show is a
wonderful show. So I said this in yesterday's show, I said,
cover the logos and bet the Pirates, and I'm gonna

(44:34):
say it again today because honestly, the way these two
teams are playing, if you cover the logos, the Pirates
are leaps and bounds better than the Giants. They're hitting better,
their bullpen's playing better. And if Burrows can, uh, if
Burrows can hold these guys down for a couple of innings,
I think the Pirates are going to win this game.

(44:56):
They might not. I haven't bet it, but Web's numbers
against the Pirates are unbelievable though, I mean they're really good,
so I would not disagree with Brian's under. Uh. He's
got a two six average against in a five thirteen ops,
which is almost two hundred points below the seven two

(45:16):
hundred fifty points below the seven fifty that I call
When I say Mendoza line, I mean above that is
good and below that is bad. So anyways, so that's
how I use the word. But anyways, uh, I think
that this will probably go under, and I also think
that the Pirates have a very good chance of winning this.

(45:38):
The thing about Web, it's so weird, but in my
starting picture rankings, I have Web ranked. I have Web
ranked number eighteen out of two hundred and fifty starting pictures,
but on my current forum rankings, I have him ranked
fifteen out of thirty pictures, so he's right in the middle.

(45:59):
So which is it, right? He's obviously very talented and
he's a great pitcher, but these Pirates are smashing the
ball right now and weeds on the road. I would
be very careful taking the Giants and thinking it's an
easy win.

Speaker 2 (46:15):
Yeah, I can't disagree with that. I'd love to like.

Speaker 1 (46:19):
I wish I had more to share on this one.
I can't fathom how the Pirates have won. The Pirates
have won ten of their last ten of their last
thirteen games. They're ten and three mixed Mixed into that
ten and three is a seventeen sixteen loss at Corsefield
where they blew and they were up nine to nothing
in the first inning and lost the game. And they're

(46:41):
doing it with what I don't truly don't believe is
the optimal lineup in their organization, Like Olivia or Pagero
should not be in the starting lineup. Joey Bart at
this point, like I get it, like the guy that
came over from from the Yankees is still young, but
it's like just you know, it's like they've got Nick

(47:02):
Solac down at Triple A. Cam Devaney who they traded
Adam Brasier for and he's had a great season at
Triple A still down at Triple A. So it's actually
like a total Like it's mind boggling really because the
Pirates in a lot of ways feel like the Twins,
where they they're like doing their the actions of like

(47:23):
the front office are like, hey, we're kind of waving
the white flag here, but they're they're winning games. And
you know, TV you talked about Burrows. Yeah, he's not
a terrible option. If he can get you through four
or five innings, the Pirates are going to be in
a very good position to compete here, like they've been
the past couple of weeks. So, you know, going back
to the original question, Yeah, it looks cheap, but man,

(47:47):
like the I don't really want the Giants on the
road right now laying a dollar thirty five dollars forty
So I'm not going to like go to the other
side and say, oh, like this is a home run
spot for the Pirates, but like I don't really want
to bet against them.

Speaker 2 (48:01):
What is the uh, what's the run line.

Speaker 1 (48:03):
There is it like cheap or no, what's plus one
and a half out of curiosity because they don't have
it in front of him.

Speaker 2 (48:10):
Oh never mind, that's that.

Speaker 1 (48:11):
So, you know what, I think the Pirates may have
taken a little money because I think that plus one
and a half was like minus one thirty minus one
thirty five before we got in the show. It's up
to minus it's up to minus one forty five. Pirates
are down to plus one twenty. I'm not betting the
Giants here, and I don't love the Pirates, but I'm
not I'm not betting the Giants.

Speaker 2 (48:30):
Let's go ahead.

Speaker 5 (48:31):
He's looking like a three to two kind of game.

Speaker 3 (48:34):
Yeah, you're looking at your team and tuttles at three
and a half for both. The Pirates, for some reason,
are fixated on young catchers they traded away. There's closer
to the Yankees to bring back another cutcher. They've already
got like three guys that are cutchers that they can't
find a betch for. And they were supposed to be

(48:54):
these great catchers and they're not getting anything out of them.
Maybe this is just a bad a bad team toward
developing cutchers because they bring in these guys from the
other teams, and oh, this is the guy.

Speaker 4 (49:07):
This is the guy.

Speaker 3 (49:09):
The Yankees develop them, and the Pittsburgh is the only
the only team that cannot get success out of these
cutchers they trade for.

Speaker 1 (49:18):
That's very interesting stuff. I've I'm sure we pirates fans.
They don't like how that team is run or managed
and stuff. So it is some mind boggling stuff going
on there. And you're you're doing it all while you
literally landed one of the best players of the last
two decade.

Speaker 2 (49:37):
I mean literally of the last decade.

Speaker 1 (49:39):
He's yeah, and uh, it's it's been sort of a
mind boggling to watch.

Speaker 2 (49:46):
I want to pull up a comment.

Speaker 5 (49:48):
They won his last start for him too, by the way, so.

Speaker 1 (49:51):
I know, nice of them to do that, huh, like
they get a little I'm gonna I'm gonna pull up
This is a great feedback from Aaron, and I just
wanted to pull the common up. And I'm also going
to give my parlay legout right now because it's a
game we've already discussed. And I'll let while I'm talking
for a second, think of a game that you want
to talk about. If you want to propose a game
because they've got about ten minutes in the show left.

Speaker 2 (50:12):
He's talking about a bit of advice.

Speaker 1 (50:14):
I think he's referring to, like, you know, kind of
looking ahead, evaluating the entire series and you know, pick
your spots.

Speaker 2 (50:23):
But they don't explain it.

Speaker 1 (50:24):
So I'll just do it in the context of this
Yankees Rangers series. And here's the thing for me, I
know if I don't sort of look down the line
a little bit, I know that like if I lose,
like like if I lose with the team, Let's say
I played the White Sox tonight. If I lose with them,
I'm going to be very inclined to come back with
them tomorrow.

Speaker 2 (50:44):
And what I think is a better spot.

Speaker 1 (50:46):
So I do try to look out ahead and look
at the series and try to figure out what the
optimal spot is because I have to be I know,
if I'm a day early. I know if I'm a
day early and I play it that I'm pretty much
committing to playing it the next day. In most scenarios,
right like now, something goes totally crazy where you know

(51:08):
I'll pass on it. But it's like my thought processes, well,
if you played it under this set of circumstances, and
now the set of circumstances is better, How are you
not going to make that same play the next day.
So I'm trying to be very cognizant of that. It's
part of the reason that I didn't want to play
the Rangers last night. It's because there was a money move.

(51:30):
The price got a little bit worse, and now suddenly
I was like, do.

Speaker 2 (51:34):
You really want Corbin here?

Speaker 1 (51:36):
Because I was looking ahead to today. The spot to
do it, the spot to jump in would probably be
with the Evaldi if you get the good price. Now,
had yesterday played out differently, and let's say the Yankees
ended up winning that close game, I'm probably I'm probably
on the range here for a client play because it's

(51:56):
ten cents cheaper, maybe it's five cents cheaper. Maybe the
Rangers don't have to use the extra bullpen, and so
on and so forth. So like that's what I'm talking
about with like, you know, I'll kind of look ahead,
look at the series. And I'm glad that you thought
that was helpful, because I just think that you should
be sort of conscious of what you're getting yourself into
early in a series. You might end up, you know,

(52:17):
playing all three games. So I appreciate that comment, and
I just wanted to clarify what I.

Speaker 2 (52:23):
Was talking about there.

Speaker 1 (52:24):
And the reason I brought that up now is because
I'm going to put that Rangers play in our parlay.
So let's go Rangers money line for my parlay league.
What do we have there, Brian? For a money line.

Speaker 3 (52:33):
There Texas currently, let's go H one twenty three.

Speaker 2 (52:41):
Yeah, like and and that's the price.

Speaker 1 (52:42):
So they So the Yankees not not in the least
bit surprised they've taken money. They do all the time,
but that is kind of what you know, I thought
the price would have been would have been had the
Yankees won last night. And I'm not saying I'm ruling
it out, but you know, from a client play perspective,
but at the at the very least, it's definitely my
favorite thing of what we've talked about so far. So

(53:03):
I'm gonna go ahead and make that by parlay leg
because I still think it's a good spot for them
because the Yankees cannot get out of their own way
right now, so Rangers.

Speaker 2 (53:12):
Will be the first leg of the parlay.

Speaker 1 (53:14):
Brian Leonard, do you have a game you want to
talk about or is it something we've already discussed.

Speaker 3 (53:19):
Yeah, we discussed it. I also like the Rangers. I
think that has some value. I'm going to play that
Pittsburgh game under seven and a half. We're looking at
minus one fifteen I think is about yeah, minus one fifteen,
seven and a half, under one fifteen in the Pirates game.

Speaker 5 (53:37):
We're going to win this parlay one from you. But
I think I think we all agree on because I
agree with both of your plays, and I am going
to do a game that we haven't covered yet. Can
I just bring it up and start talking to Yeah.

Speaker 1 (53:53):
Just tell us what the game is. We'll start with you,
we'll go to Brian, and we'll do the whole whole thing.

Speaker 5 (53:58):
Yeah, okay, I'll go first then, and I'll just put
my game out there. It's going to be the Tigers
and the Twins. I'm going to go with the Tigers
on the money line. Tigers have have caught a wind
after getting you know, having a tough series against Philadelphia.
Nothing like bringing your confidence back then playing a team
that just traded away forty percent of its roster. So

(54:21):
Paddock gets a bad rap because he's wildly and consistent
and not that great. But if you actually look close,
look closer, his one two four whip is not terrible.
And actually in his last two starts, he went six
innings in each start and only gave up one earned
run in each start, and that was against two power lineups,
the Diamondbacks, who are fading a little bit, but also

(54:44):
the Dodgers. Before that, he had a three game stretch
where he gave up thirteen earned runs. So that's where
he gets his stigma of being a terrible pitcher. But
he's not that bad. My numbers have him and Zebbie
Matthews pretty much head to head. One thing about Zebi
Matthews is he's got a six plus ERA on the road.

(55:05):
Granted it's only nineteen innings, but if you look at
how if you look at his game log, he's wildly inconsistent.
But he generally doesn't go past five innings. So what
we know is he's probably going to have a short
outing here. He might hold the Tigers to one or
two earned he might even hold him to zero, but

(55:28):
we know that he's not going to go six, seven,
eight innings. We know that this Minnesota bullpen is playing
like garbage So I'll take this Tiger's lineup with four
or five innings against this trash bullpen. And I think
even if Paddock struggles, which I don't think he will
today actually, but even if he struggles, I think the

(55:50):
Tigers can come back in the end. If they can
keep it a one run game after five innings, I
think the Tigers have all every shot in the world
to win this game. I'll take the Tigers on the
money line here.

Speaker 3 (56:03):
Yeah, I'm seeing them about a one forty one right now,
total of eight and a half. I agree the line's
a little bit cheap. Money has come in on Minnesota
for some reason.

Speaker 4 (56:13):
Zebbie.

Speaker 3 (56:14):
Matthew is very inconsistent. He is still yet to impress
in the major leagues.

Speaker 4 (56:19):
He's been a very.

Speaker 3 (56:20):
Good minor league pitcher, but as much as I like him,
you know, his numbers in the majors are terrible. He's
got a six point two to one ERA one point
five to four WHIP in two years. He is just
not put it together at this level. And Paddock is
going against the team he just played for. Minnesota just
traded him away. I think that Detroit brought in seven

(56:44):
pitchers during the trade deadline Minnesota trades away. There are seventh, eighth,
and ninth inning relievers. If Paddock doesn't have a lead
after five, I really like Detroit in live betting in
the second half of this game. In Minnesota, Wow, as
a lead through five innings, I think we're going to
get a great bet on Detroit because I really trust

(57:06):
their bullpen and I do not trust this Minnesota bullpen
at all because they've got guys that were pitching long
relief guys from the miners coming up taking over those
cannings of seven, eight, and nine. And that's to me,
If that happens, Detroit in the second half of this game,
live betting could be the best bet on the board today.

Speaker 2 (57:30):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (57:30):
So I did a one of my solo videos, which
is just we will put free free pick videos up
on the Wager talk to YouTube channel throughout the day,
and I did Twins Tigers yesterday. I actually shouted you
out TV because I pointed out that you had about
forty to fifty cents of CLV from the show compared
to what that play went off. Big reason for that

(57:52):
was Simeon Woods Richardson being scratched with the illness and
moved to Wednesday or.

Speaker 2 (57:57):
Whenever they're going to have him throw. But I did
my video.

Speaker 1 (58:01):
I did my video and kind of talked about, Okay,
this has now moved forty cents. We didn't have a
lineup yet, we didn't know who the starting pitcher was
gonna be yet.

Speaker 2 (58:09):
But I pointed out.

Speaker 1 (58:11):
Reasons to potentially at the new price, like Twins plus
one and a half, and none of those things ever
came to fruition because it goes back to it's.

Speaker 2 (58:20):
Very similar to the Pirates.

Speaker 1 (58:22):
It's like the Twins are have very much waved the
white flag because not only have they traded away eleven
of their guys, half a lot of the guys that
are are what I consider to be the better players
or the more exciting players, the more upside players are
all at Triple A. And so I was thinking, oh, okay,
they're gonna move Woods Richardson, maybe they're gonna you know,
maybe maybe they're gonna put like Pearson ole And as

(58:44):
a starter or like one of the guys that I'm
excited about at Triple A. Now they ran Travis Adams
out there, who was actually not bad, and then the
bullpen came in and right now the Bullpen's just it's
a bunch of like B level depth arms because they
Griffin Jack no longer there ya on Duran brock Stewart,
They're all gone, and so it's basically it's a it's

(59:07):
all arms that would cons you would normally consider depth
arms in the bullpen. The Twins are going to listen,
they're gonna go out the twenty six or whoever.

Speaker 2 (59:16):
However many guys are in that dugout are trying to.

Speaker 1 (59:19):
Win games, but for whatever reason, management is not for
that team. If they were, they'd have Mick Abel in
the starting rotation. They'd have Luke keshel back up playing short.
They'd probably have Miranda up. They probably have Peyton ELL's
up like. They would even maybe roll the dice and
bring a couple of those guys from Double A that
had been knocking the cover off the ball and just
got to Triple A and had a great week. They

(59:40):
would put them on the big league roster. But for
whatever reason, they're content would just ride in it out.

Speaker 2 (59:46):
And I think it's going to mean a lot of
losses for this team.

Speaker 1 (59:49):
So TV, I can't argue with you here, that's a
cheap price for the Twins.

Speaker 2 (59:52):
Go ahead, Bryan.

Speaker 5 (59:53):
We all agree, Yeah, Varlin.

Speaker 4 (59:55):
They also pread it away, so even a really good year.

Speaker 3 (59:58):
The reason the Twins doing this is because they're looking
to sell and they're looking to dump salary.

Speaker 4 (01:00:06):
They still have Ryan.

Speaker 3 (01:00:08):
He was supposed to be a Red Sox all the
way through, and then Minnesota got so busy trading everybody
else the way they ran out of time, or he'd
have been gone.

Speaker 4 (01:00:16):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:00:17):
The Minnesota team right now is if you're a player,
veteran player on that team, you're wondering what the hell
is going on right now. But that's the reason they're
doing it. They're trying to sell, which is good for
Minnesota because their owner has been one of the cheapest
owners of Major League Baseball. I hope they do. I've
always liked the Twins because they i'll perform their metrics
and they had a lot of success. I hope they

(01:00:39):
get an owner there. They'll spend some money.

Speaker 5 (01:00:42):
Very quick point before Adam summarizes the parlay, don't forget
that these guys are human beings. And if I don't
know the historical statistics, but if you look at pitchers
who got cut or traded from a team, and the
first game they face that team, I guarantee you they
have a really good stats because these guys, these guys

(01:01:02):
are human and they don't like they don't like being disrespected,
and anytime they have a chance to stick it to someone,
they're gonna do it. And so I know Paddick's not
Tom Seaver, okay, but he's gonna bring his A game today.
His A game is is a normal Pictures B minus
game maybe, but still he's gonna have as he's gonna bring.

(01:01:25):
He's gonna bring his stuff today.

Speaker 1 (01:01:29):
Yeah, and even if it, even if he doesn't, it
might not matter because like that, that's just where we're
at with these two teams. And that I still think
the Tigers, it might be making up for a little
lost time.

Speaker 2 (01:01:39):
They had a really bad week out of the break.

Speaker 1 (01:01:41):
So I think you're starting to get a focused Tigers
team that is like, hey, we got to make up
for that stretch losing like ten of eleven or whatever
we did.

Speaker 2 (01:01:50):
So the parlay is locked in. We've reached the end
of the show.

Speaker 1 (01:01:54):
Still even with the loss yesterday, still six up six
point four units on these If you've been playing along
the whole season, that's a dollar for every dollar. It's
returned six dollars and forty cents and we're still trying
to run that up, but we're happy to keep our
heads afloat here. We do need to hit one, so
hopefully it's today. We have three full game bets. We
have Rangers money Line, Tiger's money Line, and then Pirates

(01:02:16):
Giants Under seven and a half. And I did one
of the viewers said, can you can you say whose
pick is?

Speaker 2 (01:02:22):
What? So let me read that again.

Speaker 1 (01:02:23):
It is I'm on Rangers, So Rangers is my pick
on the money line. Brian Leonard has Tiger. I'm sorry, Tokyo.
Brandon has Tiger's money Line. Brian Leonard Pirates Giants Under
seven and a half plus four eighty one odds, so
plus four eighty one on today's parlay. Hopefully it's a winner.
Don't forget it is five dollars Tuesday at wager Talk.

(01:02:46):
We will all have a play up at some point
today for five bucks. Great special. You can get all
three of our plays for less than the cost of
one full priced one if you so. If you choose
to do that, I you know I made my maybe
kbo I haven't decided yet because I'm running better there
than in Major League Baseball right now, but we'll have
that up at some point today. TV killed it yesterday

(01:03:10):
with his big plays, so grab his five percenter and
Brian's got one as well. Uh, you see you guys
in the morning, fidout. Sorry we didn't discuss today, so
all right, we'll give you something fresh, cool, awesome yep,
five dollars Tuesday at wager Talk. We'll see you guys
in the morning for more total basis tomorrow nine am.

(01:03:30):
Appreciate you for tuning in as always, and have a
great day.