Looking for the best MLB picks, predictions, and betting tips for Wednesday, August 6, 2025? Tune in to Total Bases with expert handicappers Adam Trigger, Bryan Leonard and Tokyo Brandon as they break down today’s MLB matchups with sharp insights and actionable advice.
00:00 Introduction
00:14 New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers
09:42 Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers
16:45 Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins
25:31 Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
35:55 San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks
43:40 Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners
50:25 Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins
1:00:13 Parlay of the Day
00:00 Introduction
00:14 New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers
09:42 Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers
16:45 Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins
25:31 Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
35:55 San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks
43:40 Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners
50:25 Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins
1:00:13 Parlay of the Day
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
All right, welcome when it's Wednesday to day time for
total basis, it also means we've got day games all day,
which is great. Spread the games out different look from
the first couple of days of the week. I didn't
have a single Major League Baseball play yesterday, but I
have a feeling I'm gonna have a couple today, which
we'll talk about on the show. So we'll welcome to
my cowork co workers, co hosts Brian Leonard, Tokyo Brandon,
(00:25):
and let's get right into it. One of the games
that we did talk about yesterday I feel like we
got right was the Yankees struggled again, found a way
to lose Natiyavaldi was great. That being said Brian Leonard,
this feels like a much better spot for the Yankees.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Is this where they finally get back in the wind calmn?
Speaker 3 (00:44):
It sure looks like it when they've got run Don
on the mound. Let's see what we've got for the
line on this one. The lefty Rodona is the lefty
and Jack Letter to the rookie going for Texas. Right now,
the Yankees are about a maybe a one thirty two favorite,
(01:04):
and with a total of eight to the over eight
and a half to the under. My initial look at
this is about his price right a little bit. We
got to start worrying about laters pitches. They may pull
him a little bit early here, but Rodd's a veteran,
he's been around. He's going to pitch as long as
he can. Overall, he's been pretty good this season. Three
(01:27):
point three four ERA, a very good three point twenty
four shows that it's accurate, and a one point zero
six whip. His stat gas page shows him a little
bit unfavorably if you ask me, Uh, he's got you know,
some solid reds out there, which is very good expected
adding average ninety first percentile with rate ninety first strikeouts
(01:54):
eighty sixth but his walk rate, his barrel rate, his
hard hit rate, his ground ball rate, and his extension
are all below fifty percent. So it's it's just some
of his numbers are good, some are bad. I think
he's a pretty good pitcher, and he's got a three
point eight oh career ERA, so that shows that he's
(02:17):
very good. Basically, he's still a four seam four seemer
throws the four singer forty one percent of the time,
slider thirty percent. But I like him. He's usually a
guy that I count on if the Yankees are not
playing well or if they run a few losses here.
I like him in that regard. Jack Leder four point
(02:39):
one zero ERA, four point sixty nine expected one point
three to two whip a little high, great extension despite
only being six foot one, eighty eighth percentile basketball velocity
of the eighty eighth percentile. But some of his hard
hitting numbers bother me. His walk rates as ten percentile
average eason velocity fifteenth barrel ray four. He can be hit,
(03:02):
but as I've said throughout this entire series, this is
basically one of the better pitching parks in the league
this year, and it also helps the Texas' starting staff
is excellent. So I don't see enough to make a
bet on this one. So I like the Yankees, but
I don't want to lay that number.
Speaker 4 (03:22):
Yeah, is Boone brain dead? Why does he keep putting
Williams out there? He's got a six plus DRA as
a closer. That's ridiculous. I mean, does he just think
eventually he'll come around? I mean we're almost halfway through
August and he's still trotting out a six plus ERA
guys his closer. This is the second worst manager in
MLB and very little talent on this team aside from
(03:46):
Judge and Freed. So Man, Yankees are in trouble, but
I don't think they'll get swept. I think they have
a shot of winning the game today. At least. Rodin's
pretty good pitcher. I got him in the top one
third of all MLB pictures, and I've got a lighter
ranked twenty out of thirty on a curve of thirty.
(04:08):
He walks, He's got a little bit of a walking problem.
He had a really bad walking problem at the beginning
of the season. He's he's corrected that a little bit.
Not a terrible picture, not a great picture. I have
the bullpens pretty equal as far as current form is concerned,
and I have the hitting pretty equal. So too close
(04:30):
for me, But I just have a feeling the Yankees
are gonna win one game eventually, and you know, when
they have a really good starting pitcher, advantage is probably
gonna be today.
Speaker 1 (04:41):
Tokyo, Brandon, I'm curious you said Boone is the second
worst manager. Who is the worst manager in the league.
Speaker 4 (04:46):
Oh, Dave Roberts, Dave Roberts is the Angel Hernandez of managers.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
Eh, that's t I don't know if I can agree
with that, because Dave Roberts just won a World Series
and he's got the best team. But I do I
do agree with you. They they do win sometimes in
spite of him. I'll make the point again. I only
ask you because I think Aaron Boone is the worst
manager in the league.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
And that's why I wanted to see.
Speaker 1 (05:11):
I want to see who you thought was worse than that,
because the Yankees won in spite of Boone last year.
And it's something I brought up yesterday and I'll continue
to hammer this point home. The Yankees were a better
team last year. They had a better team, and they
were able to sort of overcome some of the mistakes.
Now this team's not as good, and they're just not
(05:34):
as good as they were last year.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
I don't care what anyone says.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
You take Juan Soto off the team, That team last
year that went to the World Series is better than
this Yankees team.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
And now suddenly the mistakes start to matter.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
They're starting to turn wins in the losses and it's
like they can't seem to get.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Out of their own way.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
Now, I do think they get a little bit of
a reprieve here having Radona on the mound opposing Jack Lighter,
because Jack Lighter is a guy that you know, I mean,
I've talked about him a few times. He's he hasn't
really put it together at the big league level just yet.
I think some of that has to do with how
the Rangers have sort of managed him to this point.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
You know.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
They they've they kind of threw him to the fire
too early, killed his confidence, and now he's kind of
had to start to work his way back in at
the big league level. So no doubt Radon gives them
an edge in the first you know, few innings of
this game. At the end, I mean, the Yankees that
their bullpen should be much better than this. Helped me out,
(06:31):
Brian Leonard. They remade this bullpen at the trade downline.
It should be great, so they should have a bullpen edge,
but they just simply haven't. I'm kind of with you, TV.
My gut tells me this is where the Yankees get
it done. But I just I don't know if I
want to like come to the dark side. I've been
I've been playing against them on a daily basis, you know,
at least either for a client player or on the show.
(06:55):
But my gut tells me the Yankees are the side today.
I just don't know if I can do it now.
Brought Updavid Williams. He's been bad. But what are you
supposed to do with your boon? They paid him, they
have to.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
Put him out there?
Speaker 3 (07:07):
Is he in the last year of his contracted? Is
he a free agent that?
Speaker 4 (07:14):
I don't think you have to play play a guy
just because you're paying him money.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (07:18):
I think you try to win the game no matter
what who's making what.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
Yeah, if he was, if he if he's going to
be on the team next year, you can't do this.
But if he's going to be a free agent, and
at this point there's no way he's going to sign
with the Yikes again because you just can't handle it. There.
You signed him to the.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
Miners, yeah, or you or you or you just use
him in mop up, use him in the sixth inning,
you use him when you're down.
Speaker 4 (07:41):
Do you know they picked up a bunch of pirates,
rockies and horrible, horrible?
Speaker 1 (07:54):
I don't know, I don't I don't know what this
comment is in space. It says Adam loves being a contrarian.
I really don't. I don't know why, Like I've never
once come on here, and I'm like, well, everyone likes this,
so I'm gonna go the other way. I'm just saying, like, uh,
everything to me is relative to market value. Okay, And
(08:16):
two nights ago the Yankees brought Brian on Monday.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
Was It's Wednesday.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
So Monday night the Yankees were a pretty big favorite
without Aaron Judge and it was Corbin against Why can't
I remember the Yankee star? Oh Free right, So it's like,
now you have now a clear edge at starting pitcher
with Rodon Like that's not up for debate. Radon over
Lighter is not even remotely close in terms of like
(08:42):
caliber or starting pitcher. Theoretically the bullpen should be very good.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
It just hasn't been.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
So I think the market has swung too far the
Yankees that they're gonna give you Redon at a dollar
thirty here, Like it's just so much different than what
the market was because remember how many senses Judge is
always going to be ten to fifteen to twenty cents
to the number, and he was out on Monday, So
it has nothing to do with being a contrarian, and
(09:09):
I don't consider myself a contrarian better when it comes
to baseball. I'm just saying, like where the Yankees were
priced four days ago to where they are now, it
is a considerable change, and I think you have to
at least consider backing them with the edge that you
get out of for don't against lighters. So I want
to like to comment on that because has nothing to
(09:29):
do with being a contrarian. I still think the Yankees
are not a very good baseball team, and I very
much hope they missed the playoffs for all of our stake,
because I think we've all betted in some capacity. But
this is a pretty good spot for them, all things considered. Okay,
fired up on a Wednesday, let's keep it going. What
else do we got? Here's one? Duffel says Braves manager
is awful. Yeah, this was an interesting one to me
(09:53):
because the Braves are favored today. Brian Leonard, I kind
of think they should be based on this matchup. But oh,
I mean, man, this is another one. Do you want
the Braves laying some money against the red hot Brewers
at this point?
Speaker 3 (10:08):
You thought the same thing as I did, And I
am sort of a good Twarian handicaper. I'm an underdog handicapper,
and I think you're a value handicapper. So when I'm
looking at the car, I look for spots for underdogs,
just because I know that I've had a lot of
a lot of success over the years playing the dogs. Well,
(10:32):
I looked at this and I said, why is it
Atlanta favorite? Here? Atlanta's a team that's got nothing to
play for. Milwaukee's sitting there battling it out with Chicago,
and it's not like Maggie's not playing well. They're playing great.
I know they've got Quatana on the mound, but Batina's
a veteran. I think he can have success. Strider going
for Atlanta. Strider's hasn't been back to where he was
(10:55):
a couple of years ago. Is fastballs down. It's gonna
take him a while. He's not there yet. And yet
Atlanta is about a one thirty favorite right now with
a total of eight. That's the first thing that popped
out at me, and normally when that happens, that's a
good thing. Quinana, as I mentioned, comes in with a
three point five last year, last year three point seventy five,
(11:18):
the year before three point five seven. Uh, he's he
knows how to pitch. His stat past page is all blue,
no doubt about it. But he's a guy who finds
a way to win. And you're always going to find
guys like this every year that just perform their peripherals.
You look at his era against is expected this year
(11:41):
one point three lower, last year point seven to five lower,
the year before one lower the year before point nine
and lower. He's the guy that knows how to pitch,
so he's going to perform as peripherals, which means that
he's a guy we wanted beat home. Those are the
type of guys you make money off. Spencer Strider three
point seven, a three point nine Jerah expected one point
(12:03):
two two whip his average eggs of velocity Folks in
the fourth percentile, he's only He's a ninety five point
five on his fourth Steamer League averages ninety four point nine.
He's been ninety eight in the past. He's really dropped off.
He's only basically a two pitch pitcher as throw as
a slider thirty six percent, four saving fifty four percent.
(12:26):
I like Milwaukee here I think it's a terrific number,
and I don't expect it to be there when the
game goes.
Speaker 4 (12:32):
Off, Guys, go to our pages and check out what
we got. We usually put up free plays almost every day.
Takes you ten seconds to go check our pages. See
that little scroller down there you can see the the
the the addresses to go to our pages. Or just
go to waygertalk dot com click experts and you'll find
our pages right there. I have my MLB play out
(12:54):
already today. I'm sure these guys will put something out
as well onto this game. I've been riding the Brewers
and I've been making a lot of money on them,
but I'm not going to bet them today, not because
I think they're going to lose or I think Atlanta's better.
But Quintana. I agree with Brian that he's a veteran
and he knows how to he knows how to stand
(13:15):
in there and keep his team in the game. But
I don't like his stats against the Braves. In his career,
He's been tagged for a three twenty seven average against
in a nine to eighty three ops against. And that's
a pretty good sample size as well. That kind of
scares me off. The Brewers today. Streider hasn't been great.
(13:37):
Let's see where do I have him ranked. I got
Strider ranked fourteen. I got Kintana ranked eighteen on a
curve of thirty. So neither bullpen is playing well either,
So I in this instead of taking a side, I
think either the Brewers team total over or the game
over might be a better bet than a side. Because
(13:59):
I just got a feeling. Then I don't that I
shouldn't bet the Brewers today. That's all not a strong feeling,
just a feeling.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
Trevor says, the Milwaukee Bee squad can smoke Atlanta with
their injuries. So I'm glad we did these two games
back to back because it's a very similar handicap for
me and both essentially very very similar handicap. You have
the Braves, who I like their starting pitcher far more.
And I agree with a lot of what TV said
(14:29):
about Quintana about the sample side. A lot of these
Braves guys that have large samples against him, and they've
had some success. But I also think that the ceiling
for Strider is much higher. If he comes out and
throws the game, he's capable of he should put Atlanta
in position to win. The other thing I'll point out
with the Braves, for as as poor as they've been
(14:50):
in a lot of a lot of ways this year,
they've got decent bullpen depth and the pen hasn't been
that bad for them. So it's not a scenario where
I think they're going to get to the end of
the game and necessarily lose. They've choked games away in
the leverage spot, so that's certainly a concern, But don't
I wouldn't. It's not something that would totally keep me
off the Braves here, similar to the Yankees. What's keeping
(15:12):
me off at this point is the feeling that I
shouldn't have to lay minus one thirty or minus one
thirty five. So going back to what Brian says, I'm
kind of hoping he's right.
Speaker 1 (15:22):
I'm kind of hoping the Brewers take money throughout the
day that people, even the sharp maybe the sharp crowd,
sees that plus money with the Brewers and says, how
can you pass the Brewers up at this price? Because
if this comes, you know, ten to fifteen cents in
the other direction, it's going to make me like the
Braves even more. But again very similar handicapped in both games.
You've got a considerable edge in my opinion, at the
(15:44):
front of the game with the starting pitcher, with both
Radon for the Yankees and Strider for the Braves, And
if both of those moved maybe ten to fifteen cents,
they're going to be their plays that I consider on
my card today right now. It's making it easy to
sort of pass on them because I'm not getting the
price that I want exactly. But again, I think you
have an edge here with Strider and TV. I'm kind
(16:05):
of with you on the fact that I do think
they could get to Cantana today. So a couple interesting
games to start it off, and it'll be interesting to
see how those lines move over the next couple hours,
because I do think you're gonna see some line movement
in those games. Rob McMahon's in the chat. He says,
smash the like button, absolutely what we need, the likes,
(16:26):
we need the subscribes. We're in the dog days of August,
you know, we're trudging through it. This is how it
goes for Major League Baseball. You see some of the
effort on some of these teams. This is not quite
what it was a couple of months ago, but we
were here every day and we need the likes, we
need the subscribes. We really appreciate it. It's helping us
grow this show. We want to be able to come
(16:48):
back and do this show five days a week next
year two. So we're very appreciative of all the interaction
and all the likes and subscribes on a daily basis.
All right, let's grab another one here from the chat,
mar Knsen says, I think O Tommy's still gambling on
his unders, which is a funny copy.
Speaker 4 (17:10):
All right, here's four less innings.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
Right, here's a good one.
Speaker 1 (17:16):
Because someone Nate the Great DM me about this game,
and I didn't really give him the response that that
he probably deserved via DM. And now I see Nance
bringing it up. So let's talk about it here. How
many innings will Errogetty go today? He's a strikeout machine,
but he is coming back off the il.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
They did push him back a day. Not sure that matters.
Speaker 1 (17:38):
He was supposed to pitch yesterday, got pushed back to today.
Speaker 2 (17:42):
The Astros have shown some life in Brian Leonard.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
The Marlins are doing what I kind of thought they
might do once they finally lost the game where it's
just a young team ebbs and flows. When they're hot,
they're going to be hot. When they're losing, they're going
to struggle. How are you seeing Astros Marlins today?
Speaker 3 (17:58):
Yeah, you called that a few days ago. A good
call on that, Astros Marlins. We're looking at Araghady as
you mentioned, he looks to be about a it's basically
a pick him now maybe one o eight, one ten,
one ten favorite for Houston. Arragety at Jason Junk in Miami.
(18:21):
Total on that is eight to the over, eight and
a half to the unders right in the middle of there,
eight point two five. If you were Steve Zick, that's
a that's a little joke between Trigger and I uh Spencer.
Araghaty ons on the season he's only gotten in those
two games. Started nine innings last year, one hundred and
(18:42):
forty five innings and seventy one strikeouts. Very very good.
But his whip was really high one point four to
one in his career. Short career four point six so
era a one point three eight whip, great extension, six
to two continuos had greats type in ninety seven percent. Well,
he's very good with whiffing, the getting of their team
(19:04):
to swing and mets and his expected batting average has
always been very good. But he has he has been
hitting the past, as you can tell by his era
is four point five to three last year five point
five nine and a small, very small sympathize. This year,
Jason Junk was the guy who came out and he
pitched very well early on. He's backed up a little
(19:27):
bit and you could tell that it's three point eight
six c RA three point eight two expected, so he's
about where he should be one point one. Our whip
still pretty good, though I only walks two point three
percent of the batter's faced, which is excellent. Uh so
you have to take a look when that happens. Say, well,
he's in he's in the zone a lot. How does
he do in the zone? Well, he gets people to
(19:49):
chase outside of the zone a little bit. But uh
that's that's a good thing. But his fifth percentage is
in the eighth percentile hard hit rate fifth average eggs
veloci and the percentile when he gets hit he gets
hit hard is for Seamer at ninety three point eight
miles per hour. He uses thirty eight percent of the
time which is too much. Probably he's only got four
(20:13):
other pictures, none of them years as much as the foreseamer.
So I could see him getting hit hair arroganty, I
could see getting hit. So I would look at the
over if I was looking at this one, and like
I said, it's right now between eight and eight and
a half, your choice, And I think the Miami batch
is going to wake up a little bit here. I
(20:33):
like it. I like the over in this game.
Speaker 4 (20:37):
Guys, if you're curious what a Japanese Buddhist temple looks like,
go to my Twitter and check it out. I went
there today and I put a bunch of shots up there.
Really beautiful. And today in Japan, in Tokyo, it was
one hundred and one degrees in eighty one percent humidity.
Talk about dying. Almost dropped head on the street today
it was so bad. But anyways, regarding this game, I
(21:01):
don't have enough innings on Areng Getty in the last
thirty days for him to register in my stats. But
I took a look at how he's been doing such
a weird dichotomy in his stats. I mean, he's given
up thirteen earned runs in his last three starts and
yet his whip is still one point one. How is
(21:22):
he doing this? It's amazing. Maybe you guys can clue
me in, but to me, that guy, that's just I
can't explain it. So I'm gonna stay away from that.
To me, that's an X factor. He's a good picture.
I've watched him and he passes the eye test for sure.
Both of these teams are hitting right about in the
(21:43):
mediocre range in Current Form. One's fifteen one sixteen. I
have Miami's bullpen rank just a little bit higher on
Current Form, and I got Miami. I got John rated
twelve out of thirty pictures on a curve at thirty.
But he's given up thirteen earn runs in his last
three starts. So how is he how? How how do
(22:03):
the numbers like him so much when he's been tagged
his last three starts. So I'm just just I'm gonna
stay away from it. But I wouldn't argue with Brian's
over though, not at all.
Speaker 1 (22:15):
So what I've noticed like Jansen, JOHNK even the last
couple of starts where he's been knocked around, is fantastic
the first time through the order. And it goes back
to what I was talking about with the Marlins sort
of like they're they're they're sort of building this this
stable of pitchers and you can go down to Jacksonville
and find more of them where they're like, you know,
(22:36):
they're all good long relievers and and honestly, that's what
I thought Junk was gonna be when they when they
grabbed him from Milwaukee. This was not a guy that
had any real success in the big league level.
Speaker 2 (22:45):
At the big league level prior to this year.
Speaker 1 (22:47):
He actually had a pretty poor season even down in
Nashville last year, so to see him pitch the way
he did was surprising. That being said, I still think
that he is that very solid three to four arny guy.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
Look at Loo when he's gotten hit.
Speaker 1 (23:01):
The Royals game, he finally got hit in the fourth
inning first time through, was fantastic. Last time out against
the Yankees, he was quite unlucky. I actually so I
won that game. I was on the Marlins. It was
the crazy thirteen to twelve comeback win. And in that
game they really shouldn't have let him pitched. I think
it was either Stanton someone took him deep and it
(23:23):
was like that you could the writing was on the wall.
That that was about to happen, I felt like they
should have went to the bullpen in that spot. But again,
even in that game against the Yankees on Friday, lights out,
first time through the order, no problem. So I think
for Junkets really just I think that's something that Marlins
have to to sort of make the adjustment and say, hey,
second time through, we got to get this guy out
(23:43):
of there. We can't leave him in to give up
the three run homer or the four run inning.
Speaker 2 (23:48):
Other than that, he's been very good.
Speaker 1 (23:50):
Now, I if the Marlins had if this was any
other spot in the schedule where it didn't just go
Marlins winning a bunch of games followed by back to
back losses, I probably roll the dice and take a
shot with Jansen junk here because I did not think
Arraghetty was ready to come up and start, yet didn't
think he looked. So he pitched against Takoma last week,
(24:10):
didn't look good, and it was only his first rehab
outing at Triple A, So you know, this is a
guy that missed considerable time this year, was hurt back
in early April, and he had two sort of shorter
rehab outings at Double A. And then last week pitched
against a decent Tacoma lineup and just got knocked around
for like the length was there. He went four and
(24:32):
two thirds, like it was a pretty normal start, but
he got kind of roughed up, So I thought they
were going to probably give him one more. It looks
like out of necessity, maybe because they traded away Gusto
and a couple of other guys, that maybe they just
want to get him back in the rotation.
Speaker 2 (24:47):
But that was concerning to me, So maybe I'm with Brian.
Did you say like the over in this game?
Speaker 1 (24:53):
Yes, yeah, it makes sense because if the Marlins are
going to try to force length out of junk, he's
probably going to get hit second or third time through
the order. And I just don't trust Arraghetti right now.
He got he two was too all over the place,
and that started against Tacoma, and typically the longer rehab
stints are like like two sometimes.
Speaker 2 (25:14):
Three starts at Triple A.
Speaker 1 (25:15):
So the fact that he's only made one at Triple
A and now he's coming up to face a Marlins
team that we know can get hot in the plate
concerning on both ends. So I think I'm with Brian.
I think I think I see some runs in this one.
All right, let's go to uh station Play says number
one morning show is that of all morning shows? If so,
(25:35):
we'll I mean, we'll take that all day. We we
very much appreciate that. And yeah, that's uh that, that's
that's great. You know, we appreciate it.
Speaker 4 (25:47):
It's all about the personalities.
Speaker 1 (25:51):
And hey, we we have we have him for sure. Okay,
the chat is is talking about the Cubbies. Mister Finn said,
Cubs literally sold by Parlay the last two days. Can't
do it three days in a row. Wolf says, Cubs
way better offense than Reds. Five better is better than
the Reds ever had. Guys, we talked about this game
(26:13):
yesterday and I sort of threw the question out, do
you guys have any concerns about this Cubs team?
Speaker 2 (26:20):
I credited. I still haven't figured out who it was
in the chat.
Speaker 1 (26:24):
If you're in the chat, someone asked, if I'm slamming
a twisted tea, No, this is a minute made zero
sugar Lemonie. I haven't had a twisted tea in like
fifteen years. I actually didn't know that still existed. But anyway,
back to when I was talking about Oh, Cubs Cubs Reds.
We talked about it yesterday. I said I would want
(26:44):
no part of the Cubs at that price point, and
I felt like, I really want to remember who in
the chat pointed out this potential Cubs swoon that has
now fully come to life. Another day yesterday, Brian Leonard,
the Cubs lose five to one. Are you getting more
concerned and are you getting involved?
Speaker 2 (27:03):
Today? It's Kate Horton and Andrew Rabbit. How are you
seeing this one?
Speaker 4 (27:06):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (27:06):
Abbit, the lefty going for Cincinnati. Horton, the rookie with
the Cubs. We're looking at about a one twenty nine
favorite for the Cubs total of seven and a half,
lightly to the under or it's it's right there. Uh yeah.
Andrew Arabbitt, He's the guys perplexed us all season long.
I talked about the Brewers pitcher having more success than
(27:29):
his expected numbers. Andrew Abbot's been that way his entire career.
Two point one five, Yeah, r this year three point
three two expected one point one point one whip ground
ball right eighth percentile. But yet he pitches in Cincinnati.
He doesn't give up home runs. Hell knows you know
what's going on. Fastball velocity only twenty six or twenty
(27:50):
second percentile, Yet in his career he slightly under want
to strike out in any His struck out my walk
right this year is fourteen point two, which would not
show that he deserves these numbers. He's eight and one
other season. If you like to look at win losses,
Kate Horton three point four two ERA four point six
(28:13):
to five expected. I've watched him pitches. He's got some
some negative regression coming up one point two for a whip.
You look at his statcast page more more, a little
more blue than red. He's about an average major league
pitcher at this point. So you're paying for him with
a three point four two ERA one. Really it should
(28:33):
be about a full run higher than that. So I
don't want Kate Horton here. Abbot's a guy who perfects
me all year, So I am going to sit this
one out.
Speaker 4 (28:46):
So a lot of people are saying Cubs are much
better than the Reds. Not so fast. My friend, as
Leak Corso, would say Reds are pretty good and Abbot's
pretty good too. Who would have thought coming in on
in August sixth that Abbot would be eight wins in
one loss. I don't think anyone could have predicted that
at the beginning of the season. But he's been performing well,
(29:09):
and he performs well against these batters throughout his career.
What do I have him at. I got him a
two twenty four average against with the six eighty nine ops.
Not bad numbers against this team, and it's a good
sample size too. Currently I have both of the of
all the matchups that I that I ran the numbers
on today, this is the closest one of the day.
(29:30):
These teams are one point apart, so Cubs have a
slight advantage in bullpen and current form starting pictures dead
equal and Reds. I have them one point better in
batting right now, so I mean dead even if anything,
I think I trust Abbot a little more than Horton.
But my numbers really like Horton, even though I haven't
(29:52):
really checked. I haven't really watched him closely, so I
don't have a good read on him. My numbers love him.
So two really good pictures and uh, two mediocre bullpins
and two hitters that aren't two lineups that aren't producing well.
Might think about an under Might think about the Reds,
haven't haven't, haven't done anything on it yet.
Speaker 1 (30:15):
The body language has been so bad the last couple
of days for the Cubs. They like it's just been
like they look like a team that's like I said
this yesterday before the game. I felt like at times
they looked like a team yesterday that that already like
knew they were going to lose, or like almost counted
the loss, like long before the game what was over.
(30:37):
It's just been if you look in that dugout when
they panned the dugout, the body language is horrible and
they are they are playing like a defeated team right now.
I don't know how you could possibly lay a dollar
thirty under those circumstances against Abbott with Horton on the now,
because I do agree with Brian, there's probably Horton's going
(30:58):
to be a very good pitcher.
Speaker 2 (30:59):
He came up with a ton of hype and a
lot of it was deservedly.
Speaker 1 (31:03):
So, and he's actually got off to a very good
start to his big league career.
Speaker 2 (31:08):
But I do think that there's likely some.
Speaker 1 (31:10):
Regression, especially this year, especially in his rookie season, whereas
Andrew Rabbit's just been lights out. I mean, he's just
been awesome start to finish this year. I have no
real reason to want to bet against him, and so
they're gonna give you plus one twenty with Abbot against
a Cubs team that every time I turn on the
Cubs game the last literally the last three four days,
(31:34):
the body language is terrible, you know, bad, like bad
at that and then sort of like going back to
the dugout almost looks like reminds me of when I
was coaching, you know, fifteen six year old kids. They're
coming back pouting. I'm like, I don't care if we
struck out. Let's let's get you know, let's get in
the game here. I don't need to like see you
pout in the dugout. It's been terrible body language. I noticed,
(31:54):
like Kyle Tucker like looks like his girlfriend broke up
with him. He's just miserable. It's just like it's just bad.
It just doesn't look like a team. They need to
wake up. And until that happens, I don't know how
you can lay prices with them. So it have to
be reds are passed here for me with what's easily
the better pitcher in abbot and they didn't even use
(32:16):
all of their top leverage guys yesterday, so the bullpen's
not a huge difference either. Reds plus money makes a
lot of sense here to me. God, I got to
see the Cubs wake up before I can bet on
them going forward. I want to bring up this comment.
This is going back through the last game, but just
real quick, Nan says, you said last week pitchers had
to get knocked around, and rehab starts coming up are
(32:38):
coming up bait when brought up, it is always a
case by case basis, and I do think I have
a little bit of an edge on the books because
I'm watching a lot of these minor league games, and
you have to understand that every human being is different,
every player is different, every rehab start length is different.
Speaker 2 (32:58):
It's all tailored to the player.
Speaker 1 (33:00):
In relation to Raghetti, I was just saying, like when
a guy gets kind of slapped around, I'm like a
full start like that at Triple A and he's only
had one Triple A start.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
They tend to give him another one.
Speaker 1 (33:11):
So the fact that he's coming back up tells me
they might be jumping the gun a little bit.
Speaker 2 (33:15):
Go ahead.
Speaker 3 (33:15):
Ran just wanted to point out, not that people are
watching this video, but right after we started talking about it,
Juhnk has taken a lot of money across the board.
So somebody out there who bets professionally likes Miami in
this game.
Speaker 1 (33:34):
Yeah, yeah, I don't blame him, Like I said, the
only thing that's probably I'm not even like fully off
of Miami yet. It's just I really wish they like
won yesterday. I don't like the fact that they've lost
two in a row now because we've seen it go
in the other direction for them, but it definitely makes sense.
I can't disagree with that. All right, Gee Hurt, ge
(33:56):
Hurt wants to know. That's our guy, g Hurt. He's
always here, so shout out to ge Hurt. He is
a Tigers fan, and I think he lives in Michigan.
But he's asking about a different game today, which is
one of the last games on the board and a
game that I wanted to talk about because I have
an opinion here. He's saying, well, first of all, what
a pitching matchup we have here of like, you know,
(34:18):
veteran guys that have missed some time.
Speaker 2 (34:20):
Anthony D.
Speaker 1 (34:21):
Scalfini for the Diamondbacks who missed almost a year and
I didn't think we'd ever see him back in the
big leagues. And then, of course the one g Hurt
wants to know about is Nestor Cortez, who's now on
his new team. One of the slew of moves that
the Padres made, and he's going to get the start
here today.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
I got it.
Speaker 1 (34:41):
I didn't know if he was going to be in
their starting rotation. Brian, does this surprise you at all?
And how do you get involved with Diamondbacks Padres here?
Speaker 3 (34:49):
Nestor the molester Cortes. He's going to be running for president,
by the way, once he finishes as major league duties
were looking at. That's my political rant of the day. Yeah,
we're we're looking at two veterans that have not as
you mentioned, have have not played in a while. Nestra
(35:15):
went over to Milwaukee. They let him go and get Testefani,
who you were smart enough to recognize last week that
he was a guy you wanted to fade both the ride's.
By the way, Arizona is an underdog in this game
to San Diego about a one thirty eight forty favorite
(35:37):
nester is against dscafani total nine and a half to
the under. And this is a good hitting ballpark. So
if you think either one of these guys are going
to struggle, that to get even money on a on
an over nine and a half may not be a bad,
bad bet. That's the first thing I look at here. Cortes.
(35:58):
I've liked him better than obviously Major League Baseball teams
have because he's traveled a little bit lately. But his
career record three point eight eighty RA and one point
one seven whip. That's okay, but he's not guys gonna
blow you away. He just throws four Steamer forty two
to cut her thirty seven, and his fastball is like
(36:19):
three miles below average for a lefty, so he's not
gonna strike out a lot of guys. He does get
you just just whip a little bit, but not the
greatest strikeout pitcher out there. And when you're playing in Arizona,
you really would like to have some guys that can
get some strikeouts because that's less balls in play, and
this is a good hitters ballpark. Descapani this year in
(36:41):
twenty five innings four point nine to one ERA three
point eight two expected one point twenty nine. Whip is
era the last two years, four point eight eight two
years ago, he set out last year and in twenty
twenty two is six point six to three. Small sample size, no,
not one grett pictures, but it shows you what Arizona
(37:03):
has right now and they're desperate for it. I like
the over here and it's pretty self explanatory. I think
both offenses have success and I don't see either one
of these pictures going extremely long, especially Destefani, so you
may get a good first half over Let me see
(37:23):
what that is right now, first half over five to
the over twenty. Yeah, I like that also, so a
high scoring game here.
Speaker 4 (37:33):
Guys like and subscribe wager Talk's YouTube channel because not
only do we do total bases every day at the
same time, but US Baseball cappers put up individual game videos.
Adam had one yesterday and you'll get alerted when we
put one out so you can get the line before
it moves. In baseball, these lines move very quickly. So
(37:54):
I don't really have a read on either one of
these pictures because they don't have enough innings logged in
the last days. But I do know that Disclofani has
not pitched past the fourth inning the entire season, and
I don't expect him to today either, And that means
that this powerhouse of a lineup for San Diego will
(38:15):
get to tag this horrible Arizona bullpen for five innings
at least. So I go along Brian's lines there with
an over. I think san Diego's team total over or
even the game over, or even san Diego on the
money line might be a decent day. I go any
of those. I don't feel I don't feel enough conviction
(38:38):
to actually make a bet on those, but if I
were to, that's the way I would go. Cortes is
a veteran, even if he has a bad game. These
these veterans tend to limit the damage. You rarely see
guys like Cortees get lit up for like eight runs
or seven runs. Usually they can limit damage to like
four runs and still keep their team in a game.
(38:59):
So so for that reason, I think San Diego has
an advantage here, even at starting pitcher.
Speaker 2 (39:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (39:08):
I have so many thoughts about this game, and they're
like somewhat contradicting, but I want to just like lay
him out there. So first of all, Nester Cortes, Like
you want to just an example of just the embarrassment
of riches that is the.
Speaker 2 (39:20):
Milwaukee Brewers right now. He was awesome for like a month.
Speaker 1 (39:25):
I thought that they were gonna, like, I don't think
they could find a spot for it. Like he's been
at he's been in Triple A for the last month.
His numbers in July, uh in Triple A, which was
mostly or I'm sorry in the minors, which is mostly
Triple A. In July he has a one era, a
zero point seven to two whip in a one point
five to for batting average against. He's looked fantastic. He's
(39:49):
looked like nasty nester at Triple A. And then suddenly
I look up. He's not even on the team anymore.
He's now in San Diego. So you gotta think San
Diego maybe saw that or saw something where they were like, oh,
like they're gonna either have to let him go because
they don't want to let other guys go. So, you know, good,
good for San Diego for being able to to sort
(40:09):
of grab him. Now, can he come up and is
he gonna do that at the big league level? I
don't know, but like that's certainly encouraging that for a
month he's been just dealing at Triple A. Now on
the other side, De Scalfini, like was pitching very well
out of the bullpen for the Diamondback.
Speaker 2 (40:24):
So what did they do?
Speaker 1 (40:25):
They made him a start, makes no sense and he
comes out and get and gets rocked where he was
getting rocked as a starter in Triple A.
Speaker 2 (40:32):
But for a month prior to that, he was very
good out of the bullpen.
Speaker 1 (40:35):
Now, if I'm Tory Labello, I'm just I'm gonna put
an opener out there and let him come out of
the bullpen. But I'm sure they won't do that, and
so you know they'll probably leave him out there to
get to get rocked again.
Speaker 2 (40:47):
Where this one.
Speaker 1 (40:48):
What I'm gonna be looking for today is to see
what Arizona does with roster moves. I'm gonna see if
they move anyone up. They suddenly have a couple of
good arms at Triple A and arms and I would
love to see get a chance. Dirk is one of
them that that's looked good. And they just actually called
Andrew Hoffman up the other day, who was someone they
(41:10):
acquired from the Royals. He's actually been great since getting
up there, but I think he's now pitched back to back.
Speaker 2 (41:16):
Days, so we might not see him again here.
Speaker 1 (41:18):
The Padres are a team that I think I want
to fade in the short term, reason being I don't
like these teams that go out and try to remake
their team at the trade deadline, and then with a
team like the Padres, it's now where their position in
the market. I can't tell you how many people have
asked me, should I bet the Padres to win the
World Series? Oh, the Padres are winning the World Series.
It's like, yes, they made a bunch of moves, maybe
(41:41):
they improved their team, but I don't know if they're
that much better at this point. So where the numbers are, Like,
the fact that you could almost get Arizona plus one
and a half here is definitely appealing. I'm just going
to be looking to see if the Padres take money
throughout the day because I'm not really buying that they
are so much better than they were a week ago.
Yet the market seems to think that that's the case.
(42:02):
So very interesting game. But to go circle all the
way back to g Hurt's original question talk talking about Nestor,
he looked really good.
Speaker 2 (42:11):
For the past month, and he's going to get a
shot today.
Speaker 1 (42:14):
It'll be it'll be interesting to see how that one
plays out.
Speaker 2 (42:18):
Go ahead.
Speaker 3 (42:19):
One quick comment. When I said Nester to the molester,
I was just talking about the cartoon that was in
a Hustler magazine when I was growing up. It was
a gross cartoon, but nothing. I don't want missus Cortez
to call me up. And uh, that was that was
all a joke about the cartoon.
Speaker 4 (42:36):
And let me make a quick point about the Padres.
Don't bet them to win the World Series. Bet them
to win their division because they're only three games out,
they have a better bullpen than the Dodgers, and they're
plus five hundred to win that division. I think it's
rather than the World Series. Take plus five hundred on
the division.
Speaker 1 (42:54):
And that was like, just to go back to Nance's
original question, like, that's why it's so difficult to sort
of evaluate like a rehab stint, because you're looking at
a guy like Nester Cortez who's just been lights out
at Triple A. It would not surprise me in the
least it becomes up and gets hit today because it's
it's it's just it's really tough, and that's why it
(43:16):
really is a case by case basis, But you know,
it was it was I felt like it was worth
pointing out that he was fantastic for the last month
because someone else in the chat said, where's he been
the last four months? And it's like, well, he was hurt,
but for a month now he's been pitching in the
Brewers organization. So good discussion. There a very interesting game
that'll be one that'll be one that I'm I'm very
(43:38):
interested to watch, even if I don't have action. All Right,
Jay Maine and like a whole bunch of people want
to talk White Sox Mariners, and so Jay Maine says, says, Tokyo, Brandon,
tell me something good on cannon please, But first I'm
gonna go to Brian Leonard and let him open this
one up. We talked about White Sox yesterday maybe not
being the spot to do it, and they got crushed.
(43:59):
So is today better spot for the White Sox? Are
you going to stay out of this one again?
Speaker 4 (44:02):
Today?
Speaker 3 (44:05):
We'll have to see. It's early in the morning getting
my first look at the game, so I didn't see
anything overnight other than the Milwaukee that I thought was
a bargain. Yeah, the White Sox cannon against Kirby. Kirby's
been great lately. He looks like he's fully back, but
he's also about a two to fifty five favorite in
this game. Total seven and a half cannon comes in
(44:30):
and one one of my lesser favorite White Sox pitchers,
and it's unforce is that part of the rotation. He's
four and eight down the season, four point seven seventy
r a five point four expected one point four to
one whip. Everything on his Baseball Savant page is all blue,
which isn't good. The best thing he does is his
(44:53):
walk grate is seven point seven, which is slightly below
the garage, but his strike out to walk ratio is
only ten point three or excuse me, it's not racial.
Ten percentage ten point three not good. And George Kirby
has been fantastic, as I mentioned late lately's down that
era which was really high at one point down to
(45:17):
four point one to three expected three point six y
one more in the area that his career has been
one point one to three whip. A very good pitcher,
like everything about him, but he is getting hit a
little bit Avera Jaxson velocity twentieth percentile, heart hit rate
twenty eighth. I think a lot of that went dated
back to when he was just getting back from injuries,
(45:39):
So I take that with a grain of salt. If
there's every game in which one team looks like they're
going to win, it would be Seattle. And I had
done this long enough to know that any time I
have looked at a team like this thinking there's no
way they're going to lose, they lose, So that it
(46:00):
seemed like a thing the Chicago White Sox have been
able to do all season long. So I'm not gonna
lay it with Seattle, but it's very timpted. I'll pass.
Speaker 4 (46:12):
Yeah, I was. I was a little off on this
one yesterday. I kind of liked, Oh no, I wasn't.
I won this one yesterday. Yeah, I had the first
five under four and a half on this one and
I won it. Barely won it. It was three to
one after five innings, but at least it's a win. Canon.
I agree with Briani. He's not a great picture but
(46:33):
and I've got him rank seventeen on a curve of thirty,
but he has great stats against these batters. It's only
twenty at bats against, but he's held him to a
four hundred oh ps. And I think he I think
he can do similar to what to what they did
yesterday to Seattle. Now Seattle's lineup since they added Suarez,
(46:55):
it's pretty scary. Actually, I really like I liked a
Rosarania before this season, but this season, man, he just
seems like he doesn't care. But they got some hitter.
They got the best hitting catcher in all of MLB.
They got he's the home run leader. Still they got
they added Suarez. Suarez and Rally together probably the biggest
(47:18):
home run duo in all of MLB as far as numbers,
as far as number of home runs. So this lineup's
pretty scary. But I think Canon can hold them at
least two times a round, which is the first five innings.
I would if I were to bet this, I would
take the under in the first five because I also think.
I also like Kirby's numbers against the White Sox in
(47:39):
his career, and Kirby is ranked quite quite a lot
higher than Canon is. The White Sox are actually hitting
better than Seattle right now, which is kind of surprising.
But I think I think first five hunder would be
the way to go in this one if I were to,
if I were to bet it.
Speaker 1 (47:59):
Yeah, it's almost the same handicap as it was yesterday
for me. Where obviously I've been coming on, I've been
high in the White Sox. That's been a very profitable
read since we sort of like made that statement. I
remember it was the ninety game mark because they were
thirty and sixty, and my take was that they were
going to play close to five hundred ball the rest
of the way, and they've basically done that, even with
(48:22):
last night's loss. Since then, they're twelve and eleven. So
in every single game they've been like a plus money
sometimes even a two dollars underdog, So you know, that's
been profitable. That being said, like again I go back
to yesterday, everything sort of made sense except Davis Martin.
That's kind of how I look at it here. Everything
(48:43):
sort of makes sense except Jonathan Cannon. And so it'll
likely be the reason that I stay off and maybe
look toward tomorrow as the spot to get involved.
Speaker 2 (48:51):
With the White Sox.
Speaker 1 (48:53):
The Mariners are a team that I think profile is
to be a better bet on the road, not just
because they hit home runs, although that is thing, but
because the books really love to inflate this team at home,
so you almost get like the double it's like the
double positive when they go on the road, because the
books don't give the Mariners, at least they didn't a
(49:13):
couple months ago.
Speaker 2 (49:13):
Now they do a little bit.
Speaker 1 (49:15):
They don't give him nearly as much respect on the road,
and yet they profile better on the road because they
hit more home runs and typically they're in a ballpark
that suits hitting home runs. At home, they tend to
be a big favorite, which I'm not quite sure is,
you know, based on what they've done the last couple
of years at home, I'm not sure that they should
just be like this big inflated favorite at home and
(49:35):
then they're in a ballpark that that's very tough to
hit the ball out of.
Speaker 2 (49:38):
But again, it's just.
Speaker 1 (49:40):
It's Jonathan Cannon. There's a lot of blue on that
stat cast page. He's not someone I really trust. And
could you get the is the are the White Sox
going cold a little bit? I mean, that's been a
really impressive twenty three game stretch where.
Speaker 2 (49:53):
They've gone twelve and eleven.
Speaker 1 (49:56):
That's my gut says maybe that, you know, after yesterday,
they didn't really play well.
Speaker 2 (50:00):
So that's concerning to me.
Speaker 1 (50:02):
So as much as i'd love to, you know, sort
of take that white Sox plus one and a half
as someone's in the chats like that's the trigger special, Yeah,
it definitely is. I just don't know if this is
the spot, and I don't know if Cannon is the
guy that I want to get involved with here, So
likely a pass for me, all right, Sean, Tigers white so.
Speaker 4 (50:21):
White Sox plus one and a half is synonymous with
Adam trigger.
Speaker 1 (50:25):
Yeah, and usually when I give it out, it wins.
I mean you more often than not when I've talked
about it on the show, it's it's been the right
side that like as a play here, I want to
make it clear here, I am not telling you to
play that.
Speaker 2 (50:37):
I don't think this is the spot to do that.
Speaker 1 (50:41):
All right, Sean wants to talk Tiger's Twins. We've got
about nine minutes left, so we're gonna do the title.
We're gonna do this game. We'll break down this game.
Then we'll each just throw out a parlay leg at
the end. Because we really haven't talked about him yet
and we'll and that's how we'll wrap up the show.
But let's do let's give Tigers Twins the full rub first.
So yesterday the Twins I finally did what I hope
they would do a week ago, call Luke Keshell up.
(51:03):
And that's what I want to see from them. I
want to see them get these exciting players in the lineup.
Brian Leonard, you back in April said Luke Keshall might
be the best player in this organization right now, or
one of them.
Speaker 2 (51:15):
And then he got called up.
Speaker 1 (51:16):
He was awesome, and I think he broke his arm
or had like an injury that kept him out for
some time. Yesterday he's up. What do you know, first
big league homer and he's the most exciting player on
the field. Does that give you any sort of you know,
reason to want to back the Twins here or going vote?
Speaker 3 (51:32):
Yeah, as a Twins fan, I'd love to see the
young guys come up. This is actually Nate Barghesi special.
If you follow the media, Nate Barghesy. He always talks
about his accent and he can't say the word oil. Well,
his ideal picture is going today for Minnesota is his
name is all all hl Christian relief in the series
(51:56):
against Cleveland, going up against Flaherty is about maybe a
one seventy favorite right now. It's bouncing all over with
an eight. You can get as low as one fifty
eight and you can get as high as like a
one fifty two on the comeback there. But Pearson all
six foot one, twenty five year old pitch relief. The
(52:18):
other day he started one game as a as an opener. Basically,
he's only got six innings in total, so he's only
going to go probably three here if he goes that
long at all. I don't know that much about him.
He went to Grand Canyon University, that's Marley's University, and uh,
we'll see how it does. I thought he pitched pretty
(52:40):
well the other day against Cleveland. Jack Flaherty four point
three six ERA, three point nine to three expected one
point two five whip. When you look at Flaherty, you
got to look at his splits home games three point
three eight e RA on the road five point sixty nine,
and that comes out. He was awesome on the road
(53:01):
the other day. So he's still got over you know,
two and a half, about two and a half runs
higher on the road than at home. The question you
have to ask here is, first of all, you probably
want to fade Minnesota because of the bullpen. I talked
about that yesterday. He tried to fell behind like six
(53:23):
to one, and then Minnesota or Detroit ended up. I
was scoring them in the second half of the game,
which which was a good bet. But you've got a
team in Minnesota who has traded all the players away.
They're giving the kids a chance. I like that. I
don't want a lot of veterans on this team. If
I'm Minnesota, I want kids to care and want to
(53:43):
prove themselves. But you also have a Detroit team that's
not playing well, haven't played well for the last month,
and you're laying a pretty good number here. So do
I think Detroy is gonna win? Yes? Am I willing
to lay this number? No, I'll pass.
Speaker 4 (54:00):
So. I was one of Flerity's best backers' biggest backers
when they played Philadelphia last week. He was facing Christopher Sanchez.
I made the bold statement Flarity is going to pitch
better than Sanchez, and he did, but they lost the game.
I've been backing Detroit since that Philly series. And I've
been making money with him more than back in Detroit.
(54:23):
I've been fading Minnesota since they traded forty percent of
their roster away at the trade deadline. However, Flarity's road
numbers really scare me here. I don't think. I don't
think Minnesota's going to win the game, but I do
think Minnesota's gonna score a lot today. So just for
(54:44):
that reason, it kind of scares me to lay this
number with Detroit. So I think Detroit's gonna win, but
I'm not gonna bet it.
Speaker 1 (54:53):
I will be a likely be a Twins backer going forward,
and as they make these moves, I'll be I'll be
using them more reason being last night Saint Paul Saints,
that's their Triple A team, fourteen hits. I mean, Peyton
El's is the guy that I wish they would give
a shot. The two guys that just came up from
Double A, Kyler Fedco, Gabriel Gonzalez both going to be
(55:15):
very very good players.
Speaker 2 (55:16):
Just bring them up. They did.
Speaker 1 (55:17):
They They made the right decision to bring Keshel up.
James Outman is now in the Twins organization. They got
him in and I think he was part of the
Brox Stewart trade.
Speaker 2 (55:27):
He's having a great year at Triple A. He should
like he was just chilling in.
Speaker 1 (55:32):
The Dodgers organization because they didn't ever have a room
for him, and then he wasn't great at the big
league level. But still, why what, like what are we doing? Like,
let's just get these guys up and play them all.
The more that they bring these guys up, the more
inclined I'm going to be willing to play on the
Twins because I think the books are going to look
and say, oh, it's all Triple A guys, when in
reality they're better than the guys that are in the
(55:52):
Twins lineup on a daily basis. Pearson Ole is Zebbie
Matthews two point zero? Uh, they this is what the
Twins like to do. He started the year a ball,
but he's a four year He's one of these like
four year mid major college guys, as Brian Leonard said,
Grand Canyon University. I think Zebi went to Western Carolina,
so they're already like twenty five years old. So the
Twins don't want to mess around. They just want to
(56:13):
get them up seeing what they can do. All is
a guy that's kind of bounced around from bullpen to starter.
I think he'll go three or four innings, but I
think he's gonna give you three or four good innings
here and then you know the bullpen. It's irrelevant who
comes in for the twins. Their price is a bottom
bullpen right now. I saw they grab Thomas Hatch, who's
been in the Royals organization. Maybe you see him today.
(56:35):
Twins plus one and a half is the way I
want to go. That's gonna be my parlay leg and
if I can get like ten to fifteen more cents
of value as the day goes on, that might actually
be a client play for me.
Speaker 2 (56:44):
But Brian Leonard, what are we looking at for?
Speaker 4 (56:46):
Let me let me let me correct myself real quick flirt.
He's at home today, not on the road. My mistake,
Sorry about that. So in that case, in that case,
I might consider backing Detroit take a minus one roads.
That's kind of scared me. But but he's at home, so.
Speaker 1 (57:04):
Yeah, And he's been really good, Like, don't get me wrong,
Flarity has been very good.
Speaker 2 (57:09):
But I just he's not.
Speaker 1 (57:10):
Someone that I'm like that, you know, unwilling to oppose
if I'm getting a run in a half, So I
wanted to make sure that I touched on flarity because
he's he has solid but I don't know that he's
going to continue to pitch like.
Speaker 3 (57:24):
This going forward.
Speaker 2 (57:25):
So Brian, what are we looking at for twins plus
one and a half?
Speaker 3 (57:28):
I met Minnesota plus one and a half is one
forty five and I did hear you say that, but
I just greg we're sorry to be but I just
thought it was slipping the tongue, so I didn't say anything.
Speaker 4 (57:40):
No problem, my mistake. I'm sorry about that.
Speaker 2 (57:44):
All right. So that'll be my leg of the parlay again.
Speaker 1 (57:47):
I'm hoping the Tigers take money throughout the day, as
I may add that to the client car, but at
worst it'll just end up being a parlay leg because
I can justify putting minus one forty five juice in
the parlay.
Speaker 2 (58:00):
Either of you know what parlay lead you're gonna use
at this point, I do.
Speaker 3 (58:04):
I have a let Brandon go first, all right?
Speaker 4 (58:09):
Is that all right? Okay? Sorry about that, Brian, didn't
mean to step on you.
Speaker 5 (58:12):
Other I like I like the the Angels team total
under four and a half today, and the reason I
like it is because I really like how Baz is
pitched against them.
Speaker 4 (58:27):
Their bats are cooling off a little bit little cold, uh,
and the Baz has a one to twenty five average
against in a three eighty eight ops against him. He's
the best performing pitcher against the batters today. Although the
sample size is a little small, but I think four
and a half is a little bit high. I like
the Rays bullpen, and I think the Angels have been
(58:50):
in a little bit of a quagmire here, so I
don't think they're gonna get to five today. This looks
like a looks like an undergame to me overall. But
the four and a half really stood out. I you know,
before I open the lines up, I have in my
mind what I think it's gonna be. And I had
three and a half in my mind. Now was like
four and a half. Wow, So that'll be my leg.
Speaker 3 (59:11):
It's minus one forty five.
Speaker 1 (59:13):
Also, yeah, I want it real real quick, Like I Sean,
I Sean says it's Woods Richardson for the Twins.
Speaker 2 (59:23):
I don't think so.
Speaker 1 (59:23):
I'm pretty sure they're gonna use Pierson Old to start
and if it's if they don't. But the other thing is,
like all will pitch today So even if they were
to change that, not a big deal because he's gonna
be He's gonna give you three or four innings regardless
of where he comes into the game. So even if
they decided to switch that around, I still think you
see him for three to four innings.
Speaker 2 (59:42):
Today doesn't change my handicap.
Speaker 3 (59:45):
Yeah, and it makes sense that way the second guy
and can get the victory. A lot of teams do that.
But uh, yeah, So since you both took favorites, I'll
take an underdog, and uh I'll go Cincinnati with Abbott
here going against the Cubs. Cincinnati currently plus let's anywhere
(01:00:07):
from one ten to one twenty three. So let's just
go about one sixteen, one seventeen on Cincinnati.
Speaker 2 (01:00:17):
All right, And what was the juice for TV's play.
Speaker 3 (01:00:20):
Also the one forty five minus one forty five same
as yours.
Speaker 1 (01:00:24):
All right, all right, so we are let me just
punch this in. And yeah, I did see Sean. I
did see Woods richardson the other day get pushed back.
But he was also sick, so like I think it
was an illness type thing. He may just be scratched altogether.
I wouldn't be surprised if you didn't see him today
because I'm pretty sure when he was pushed back for
(01:00:46):
Monday to Wednday Wednesday, it was illness and they might
just say you're not feeling good, you're gonna get skipped
this time around. So I h he's either I don't
know if you're going to see him today, but I
do believe it's pearsonal to start and that's been posted
by a couple of different sites now. So anyway, parlay
it's going to be plus five nineteen on the odds.
(01:01:09):
We've got Brian Leonard Reds plus one seventeen Tokyo, Brandon's
going Angels team total under four and a half, and
I'm gonna use the Twins plus one and a half
in their game against the Tigers. It's plus five nineteen. Hopefully,
hopefully we can get in the win column. Need about
one of these a week to stay afloat, and that's
kind of what we've done so far this year is
(01:01:31):
stay afloat. Now it's time to push this back into
you know, profit territory. Though we're still up five point
four units on these on the season. So that's our
parlay for today. My leg Twins plus one and a half,
Tokyo Brandon Angels team total under four and a half,
Brian Leonard Red's money line for the game plus five nineteen.
(01:01:53):
Appreciate you guys tuning in, give us the light and subscribes,
you know. Head on over to the wager talk YouTube
channel if you want to catch the replay.
Speaker 2 (01:02:01):
It is always up.
Speaker 1 (01:02:03):
We all have stuff up at wager talk dot com
and we'll see you guys in the morning for another
episode of Total Basis nine am tomorrow morning.
Speaker 2 (01:02:10):
Take care,
All right, welcome when it's Wednesday to day time for
total basis, it also means we've got day games all day,
which is great. Spread the games out different look from
the first couple of days of the week. I didn't
have a single Major League Baseball play yesterday, but I
have a feeling I'm gonna have a couple today, which
we'll talk about on the show. So we'll welcome to
my cowork co workers, co hosts Brian Leonard, Tokyo Brandon,
(00:25):
and let's get right into it. One of the games
that we did talk about yesterday I feel like we
got right was the Yankees struggled again, found a way
to lose Natiyavaldi was great. That being said Brian Leonard,
this feels like a much better spot for the Yankees.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Is this where they finally get back in the wind calmn?
Speaker 3 (00:44):
It sure looks like it when they've got run Don
on the mound. Let's see what we've got for the
line on this one. The lefty Rodona is the lefty
and Jack Letter to the rookie going for Texas. Right now,
the Yankees are about a maybe a one thirty two favorite,
(01:04):
and with a total of eight to the over eight
and a half to the under. My initial look at
this is about his price right a little bit. We
got to start worrying about laters pitches. They may pull
him a little bit early here, but Rodd's a veteran,
he's been around. He's going to pitch as long as
he can. Overall, he's been pretty good this season. Three
(01:27):
point three four ERA, a very good three point twenty
four shows that it's accurate, and a one point zero
six whip. His stat gas page shows him a little
bit unfavorably if you ask me, Uh, he's got you know,
some solid reds out there, which is very good expected
adding average ninety first percentile with rate ninety first strikeouts
(01:54):
eighty sixth but his walk rate, his barrel rate, his
hard hit rate, his ground ball rate, and his extension
are all below fifty percent. So it's it's just some
of his numbers are good, some are bad. I think
he's a pretty good pitcher, and he's got a three
point eight oh career ERA, so that shows that he's
(02:17):
very good. Basically, he's still a four seam four seemer
throws the four singer forty one percent of the time,
slider thirty percent. But I like him. He's usually a
guy that I count on if the Yankees are not
playing well or if they run a few losses here.
I like him in that regard. Jack Leder four point
(02:39):
one zero ERA, four point sixty nine expected one point
three to two whip a little high, great extension despite
only being six foot one, eighty eighth percentile basketball velocity
of the eighty eighth percentile. But some of his hard
hitting numbers bother me. His walk rates as ten percentile
average eason velocity fifteenth barrel ray four. He can be hit,
(03:02):
but as I've said throughout this entire series, this is
basically one of the better pitching parks in the league
this year, and it also helps the Texas' starting staff
is excellent. So I don't see enough to make a
bet on this one. So I like the Yankees, but
I don't want to lay that number.
Speaker 4 (03:22):
Yeah, is Boone brain dead? Why does he keep putting
Williams out there? He's got a six plus DRA as
a closer. That's ridiculous. I mean, does he just think
eventually he'll come around? I mean we're almost halfway through
August and he's still trotting out a six plus ERA
guys his closer. This is the second worst manager in
MLB and very little talent on this team aside from
(03:46):
Judge and Freed. So Man, Yankees are in trouble, but
I don't think they'll get swept. I think they have
a shot of winning the game today. At least. Rodin's
pretty good pitcher. I got him in the top one
third of all MLB pictures, and I've got a lighter
ranked twenty out of thirty on a curve of thirty.
(04:08):
He walks, He's got a little bit of a walking problem.
He had a really bad walking problem at the beginning
of the season. He's he's corrected that a little bit.
Not a terrible picture, not a great picture. I have
the bullpens pretty equal as far as current form is concerned,
and I have the hitting pretty equal. So too close
(04:30):
for me, But I just have a feeling the Yankees
are gonna win one game eventually, and you know, when
they have a really good starting pitcher, advantage is probably
gonna be today.
Speaker 1 (04:41):
Tokyo, Brandon, I'm curious you said Boone is the second
worst manager. Who is the worst manager in the league.
Speaker 4 (04:46):
Oh, Dave Roberts, Dave Roberts is the Angel Hernandez of managers.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
Eh, that's t I don't know if I can agree
with that, because Dave Roberts just won a World Series
and he's got the best team. But I do I
do agree with you. They they do win sometimes in
spite of him. I'll make the point again. I only
ask you because I think Aaron Boone is the worst
manager in the league.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
And that's why I wanted to see.
Speaker 1 (05:11):
I want to see who you thought was worse than that,
because the Yankees won in spite of Boone last year.
And it's something I brought up yesterday and I'll continue
to hammer this point home. The Yankees were a better
team last year. They had a better team, and they
were able to sort of overcome some of the mistakes.
Now this team's not as good, and they're just not
(05:34):
as good as they were last year.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
I don't care what anyone says.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
You take Juan Soto off the team, That team last
year that went to the World Series is better than
this Yankees team.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
And now suddenly the mistakes start to matter.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
They're starting to turn wins in the losses and it's
like they can't seem to get.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Out of their own way.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
Now, I do think they get a little bit of
a reprieve here having Radona on the mound opposing Jack Lighter,
because Jack Lighter is a guy that you know, I mean,
I've talked about him a few times. He's he hasn't
really put it together at the big league level just yet.
I think some of that has to do with how
the Rangers have sort of managed him to this point.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
You know.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
They they've they kind of threw him to the fire
too early, killed his confidence, and now he's kind of
had to start to work his way back in at
the big league level. So no doubt Radon gives them
an edge in the first you know, few innings of
this game. At the end, I mean, the Yankees that
their bullpen should be much better than this. Helped me out,
(06:31):
Brian Leonard. They remade this bullpen at the trade downline.
It should be great, so they should have a bullpen edge,
but they just simply haven't. I'm kind of with you, TV.
My gut tells me this is where the Yankees get
it done. But I just I don't know if I
want to like come to the dark side. I've been
I've been playing against them on a daily basis, you know,
at least either for a client player or on the show.
(06:55):
But my gut tells me the Yankees are the side today.
I just don't know if I can do it now.
Brought Updavid Williams. He's been bad. But what are you
supposed to do with your boon? They paid him, they
have to.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
Put him out there?
Speaker 3 (07:07):
Is he in the last year of his contracted? Is
he a free agent that?
Speaker 4 (07:14):
I don't think you have to play play a guy
just because you're paying him money.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (07:18):
I think you try to win the game no matter
what who's making what.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
Yeah, if he was, if he if he's going to
be on the team next year, you can't do this.
But if he's going to be a free agent, and
at this point there's no way he's going to sign
with the Yikes again because you just can't handle it. There.
You signed him to the.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
Miners, yeah, or you or you or you just use
him in mop up, use him in the sixth inning,
you use him when you're down.
Speaker 4 (07:41):
Do you know they picked up a bunch of pirates,
rockies and horrible, horrible?
Speaker 1 (07:54):
I don't know, I don't I don't know what this
comment is in space. It says Adam loves being a contrarian.
I really don't. I don't know why, Like I've never
once come on here, and I'm like, well, everyone likes this,
so I'm gonna go the other way. I'm just saying, like, uh,
everything to me is relative to market value. Okay, And
(08:16):
two nights ago the Yankees brought Brian on Monday.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
Was It's Wednesday.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
So Monday night the Yankees were a pretty big favorite
without Aaron Judge and it was Corbin against Why can't
I remember the Yankee star? Oh Free right, So it's like,
now you have now a clear edge at starting pitcher
with Rodon Like that's not up for debate. Radon over
Lighter is not even remotely close in terms of like
(08:42):
caliber or starting pitcher. Theoretically the bullpen should be very good.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
It just hasn't been.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
So I think the market has swung too far the
Yankees that they're gonna give you Redon at a dollar
thirty here, Like it's just so much different than what
the market was because remember how many senses Judge is
always going to be ten to fifteen to twenty cents
to the number, and he was out on Monday, So
it has nothing to do with being a contrarian, and
(09:09):
I don't consider myself a contrarian better when it comes
to baseball. I'm just saying, like where the Yankees were
priced four days ago to where they are now, it
is a considerable change, and I think you have to
at least consider backing them with the edge that you
get out of for don't against lighters. So I want
to like to comment on that because has nothing to
(09:29):
do with being a contrarian. I still think the Yankees
are not a very good baseball team, and I very
much hope they missed the playoffs for all of our stake,
because I think we've all betted in some capacity. But
this is a pretty good spot for them, all things considered. Okay,
fired up on a Wednesday, let's keep it going. What
else do we got? Here's one? Duffel says Braves manager
is awful. Yeah, this was an interesting one to me
(09:53):
because the Braves are favored today. Brian Leonard, I kind
of think they should be based on this matchup. But oh,
I mean, man, this is another one. Do you want
the Braves laying some money against the red hot Brewers
at this point?
Speaker 3 (10:08):
You thought the same thing as I did, And I
am sort of a good Twarian handicaper. I'm an underdog handicapper,
and I think you're a value handicapper. So when I'm
looking at the car, I look for spots for underdogs,
just because I know that I've had a lot of
a lot of success over the years playing the dogs. Well,
(10:32):
I looked at this and I said, why is it
Atlanta favorite? Here? Atlanta's a team that's got nothing to
play for. Milwaukee's sitting there battling it out with Chicago,
and it's not like Maggie's not playing well. They're playing great.
I know they've got Quatana on the mound, but Batina's
a veteran. I think he can have success. Strider going
for Atlanta. Strider's hasn't been back to where he was
(10:55):
a couple of years ago. Is fastballs down. It's gonna
take him a while. He's not there yet. And yet
Atlanta is about a one thirty favorite right now with
a total of eight. That's the first thing that popped
out at me, and normally when that happens, that's a
good thing. Quinana, as I mentioned, comes in with a
three point five last year, last year three point seventy five,
(11:18):
the year before three point five seven. Uh, he's he
knows how to pitch. His stat past page is all blue,
no doubt about it. But he's a guy who finds
a way to win. And you're always going to find
guys like this every year that just perform their peripherals.
You look at his era against is expected this year
(11:41):
one point three lower, last year point seven to five lower,
the year before one lower the year before point nine
and lower. He's the guy that knows how to pitch,
so he's going to perform as peripherals, which means that
he's a guy we wanted beat home. Those are the
type of guys you make money off. Spencer Strider three
point seven, a three point nine Jerah expected one point
(12:03):
two two whip his average eggs of velocity Folks in
the fourth percentile, he's only He's a ninety five point
five on his fourth Steamer League averages ninety four point nine.
He's been ninety eight in the past. He's really dropped off.
He's only basically a two pitch pitcher as throw as
a slider thirty six percent, four saving fifty four percent.
(12:26):
I like Milwaukee here I think it's a terrific number,
and I don't expect it to be there when the
game goes.
Speaker 4 (12:32):
Off, Guys, go to our pages and check out what
we got. We usually put up free plays almost every day.
Takes you ten seconds to go check our pages. See
that little scroller down there you can see the the
the the addresses to go to our pages. Or just
go to waygertalk dot com click experts and you'll find
our pages right there. I have my MLB play out
(12:54):
already today. I'm sure these guys will put something out
as well onto this game. I've been riding the Brewers
and I've been making a lot of money on them,
but I'm not going to bet them today, not because
I think they're going to lose or I think Atlanta's better.
But Quintana. I agree with Brian that he's a veteran
and he knows how to he knows how to stand
(13:15):
in there and keep his team in the game. But
I don't like his stats against the Braves. In his career,
He's been tagged for a three twenty seven average against
in a nine to eighty three ops against. And that's
a pretty good sample size as well. That kind of
scares me off. The Brewers today. Streider hasn't been great.
(13:37):
Let's see where do I have him ranked. I got
Strider ranked fourteen. I got Kintana ranked eighteen on a
curve of thirty. So neither bullpen is playing well either,
So I in this instead of taking a side, I
think either the Brewers team total over or the game
over might be a better bet than a side. Because
(13:59):
I just got a feeling. Then I don't that I
shouldn't bet the Brewers today. That's all not a strong feeling,
just a feeling.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
Trevor says, the Milwaukee Bee squad can smoke Atlanta with
their injuries. So I'm glad we did these two games
back to back because it's a very similar handicap for
me and both essentially very very similar handicap. You have
the Braves, who I like their starting pitcher far more.
And I agree with a lot of what TV said
(14:29):
about Quintana about the sample side. A lot of these
Braves guys that have large samples against him, and they've
had some success. But I also think that the ceiling
for Strider is much higher. If he comes out and
throws the game, he's capable of he should put Atlanta
in position to win. The other thing I'll point out
with the Braves, for as as poor as they've been
(14:50):
in a lot of a lot of ways this year,
they've got decent bullpen depth and the pen hasn't been
that bad for them. So it's not a scenario where
I think they're going to get to the end of
the game and necessarily lose. They've choked games away in
the leverage spot, so that's certainly a concern, But don't
I wouldn't. It's not something that would totally keep me
off the Braves here, similar to the Yankees. What's keeping
(15:12):
me off at this point is the feeling that I
shouldn't have to lay minus one thirty or minus one
thirty five. So going back to what Brian says, I'm
kind of hoping he's right.
Speaker 1 (15:22):
I'm kind of hoping the Brewers take money throughout the
day that people, even the sharp maybe the sharp crowd,
sees that plus money with the Brewers and says, how
can you pass the Brewers up at this price? Because
if this comes, you know, ten to fifteen cents in
the other direction, it's going to make me like the
Braves even more. But again very similar handicapped in both games.
You've got a considerable edge in my opinion, at the
(15:44):
front of the game with the starting pitcher, with both
Radon for the Yankees and Strider for the Braves, And
if both of those moved maybe ten to fifteen cents,
they're going to be their plays that I consider on
my card today right now. It's making it easy to
sort of pass on them because I'm not getting the
price that I want exactly. But again, I think you
have an edge here with Strider and TV. I'm kind
(16:05):
of with you on the fact that I do think
they could get to Cantana today. So a couple interesting
games to start it off, and it'll be interesting to
see how those lines move over the next couple hours,
because I do think you're gonna see some line movement
in those games. Rob McMahon's in the chat. He says,
smash the like button, absolutely what we need, the likes,
(16:26):
we need the subscribes. We're in the dog days of August,
you know, we're trudging through it. This is how it
goes for Major League Baseball. You see some of the
effort on some of these teams. This is not quite
what it was a couple of months ago, but we
were here every day and we need the likes, we
need the subscribes. We really appreciate it. It's helping us
grow this show. We want to be able to come
(16:48):
back and do this show five days a week next
year two. So we're very appreciative of all the interaction
and all the likes and subscribes on a daily basis.
All right, let's grab another one here from the chat,
mar Knsen says, I think O Tommy's still gambling on
his unders, which is a funny copy.
Speaker 4 (17:10):
All right, here's four less innings.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
Right, here's a good one.
Speaker 1 (17:16):
Because someone Nate the Great DM me about this game,
and I didn't really give him the response that that
he probably deserved via DM. And now I see Nance
bringing it up. So let's talk about it here. How
many innings will Errogetty go today? He's a strikeout machine,
but he is coming back off the il.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
They did push him back a day. Not sure that matters.
Speaker 1 (17:38):
He was supposed to pitch yesterday, got pushed back to today.
Speaker 2 (17:42):
The Astros have shown some life in Brian Leonard.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
The Marlins are doing what I kind of thought they
might do once they finally lost the game where it's
just a young team ebbs and flows. When they're hot,
they're going to be hot. When they're losing, they're going
to struggle. How are you seeing Astros Marlins today?
Speaker 3 (17:58):
Yeah, you called that a few days ago. A good
call on that, Astros Marlins. We're looking at Araghady as
you mentioned, he looks to be about a it's basically
a pick him now maybe one o eight, one ten,
one ten favorite for Houston. Arragety at Jason Junk in Miami.
(18:21):
Total on that is eight to the over, eight and
a half to the unders right in the middle of there,
eight point two five. If you were Steve Zick, that's
a that's a little joke between Trigger and I uh Spencer.
Araghaty ons on the season he's only gotten in those
two games. Started nine innings last year, one hundred and
(18:42):
forty five innings and seventy one strikeouts. Very very good.
But his whip was really high one point four to
one in his career. Short career four point six so
era a one point three eight whip, great extension, six
to two continuos had greats type in ninety seven percent. Well,
he's very good with whiffing, the getting of their team
(19:04):
to swing and mets and his expected batting average has
always been very good. But he has he has been
hitting the past, as you can tell by his era
is four point five to three last year five point
five nine and a small, very small sympathize. This year,
Jason Junk was the guy who came out and he
pitched very well early on. He's backed up a little
(19:27):
bit and you could tell that it's three point eight
six c RA three point eight two expected, so he's
about where he should be one point one. Our whip
still pretty good, though I only walks two point three
percent of the batter's faced, which is excellent. Uh so
you have to take a look when that happens. Say, well,
he's in he's in the zone a lot. How does
he do in the zone? Well, he gets people to
(19:49):
chase outside of the zone a little bit. But uh
that's that's a good thing. But his fifth percentage is
in the eighth percentile hard hit rate fifth average eggs
veloci and the percentile when he gets hit he gets
hit hard is for Seamer at ninety three point eight
miles per hour. He uses thirty eight percent of the
time which is too much. Probably he's only got four
(20:13):
other pictures, none of them years as much as the foreseamer.
So I could see him getting hit hair arroganty, I
could see getting hit. So I would look at the
over if I was looking at this one, and like
I said, it's right now between eight and eight and
a half, your choice, And I think the Miami batch
is going to wake up a little bit here. I
(20:33):
like it. I like the over in this game.
Speaker 4 (20:37):
Guys, if you're curious what a Japanese Buddhist temple looks like,
go to my Twitter and check it out. I went
there today and I put a bunch of shots up there.
Really beautiful. And today in Japan, in Tokyo, it was
one hundred and one degrees in eighty one percent humidity.
Talk about dying. Almost dropped head on the street today
it was so bad. But anyways, regarding this game, I
(21:01):
don't have enough innings on Areng Getty in the last
thirty days for him to register in my stats. But
I took a look at how he's been doing such
a weird dichotomy in his stats. I mean, he's given
up thirteen earned runs in his last three starts and
yet his whip is still one point one. How is
(21:22):
he doing this? It's amazing. Maybe you guys can clue
me in, but to me, that guy, that's just I
can't explain it. So I'm gonna stay away from that.
To me, that's an X factor. He's a good picture.
I've watched him and he passes the eye test for sure.
Both of these teams are hitting right about in the
(21:43):
mediocre range in Current Form. One's fifteen one sixteen. I
have Miami's bullpen rank just a little bit higher on
Current Form, and I got Miami. I got John rated
twelve out of thirty pictures on a curve at thirty.
But he's given up thirteen earn runs in his last
three starts. So how is he how? How how do
(22:03):
the numbers like him so much when he's been tagged
his last three starts. So I'm just just I'm gonna
stay away from it. But I wouldn't argue with Brian's
over though, not at all.
Speaker 1 (22:15):
So what I've noticed like Jansen, JOHNK even the last
couple of starts where he's been knocked around, is fantastic
the first time through the order. And it goes back
to what I was talking about with the Marlins sort
of like they're they're they're sort of building this this
stable of pitchers and you can go down to Jacksonville
and find more of them where they're like, you know,
(22:36):
they're all good long relievers and and honestly, that's what
I thought Junk was gonna be when they when they
grabbed him from Milwaukee. This was not a guy that
had any real success in the big league level.
Speaker 2 (22:45):
At the big league level prior to this year.
Speaker 1 (22:47):
He actually had a pretty poor season even down in
Nashville last year, so to see him pitch the way
he did was surprising. That being said, I still think
that he is that very solid three to four arny guy.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
Look at Loo when he's gotten hit.
Speaker 1 (23:01):
The Royals game, he finally got hit in the fourth
inning first time through, was fantastic. Last time out against
the Yankees, he was quite unlucky. I actually so I
won that game. I was on the Marlins. It was
the crazy thirteen to twelve comeback win. And in that
game they really shouldn't have let him pitched. I think
it was either Stanton someone took him deep and it
(23:23):
was like that you could the writing was on the wall.
That that was about to happen, I felt like they
should have went to the bullpen in that spot. But again,
even in that game against the Yankees on Friday, lights out,
first time through the order, no problem. So I think
for Junkets really just I think that's something that Marlins
have to to sort of make the adjustment and say, hey,
second time through, we got to get this guy out
(23:43):
of there. We can't leave him in to give up
the three run homer or the four run inning.
Speaker 2 (23:48):
Other than that, he's been very good.
Speaker 1 (23:50):
Now, I if the Marlins had if this was any
other spot in the schedule where it didn't just go
Marlins winning a bunch of games followed by back to
back losses, I probably roll the dice and take a
shot with Jansen junk here because I did not think
Arraghetty was ready to come up and start, yet didn't
think he looked. So he pitched against Takoma last week,
(24:10):
didn't look good, and it was only his first rehab
outing at Triple A, So you know, this is a
guy that missed considerable time this year, was hurt back
in early April, and he had two sort of shorter
rehab outings at Double A. And then last week pitched
against a decent Tacoma lineup and just got knocked around
for like the length was there. He went four and
(24:32):
two thirds, like it was a pretty normal start, but
he got kind of roughed up, So I thought they
were going to probably give him one more. It looks
like out of necessity, maybe because they traded away Gusto
and a couple of other guys, that maybe they just
want to get him back in the rotation.
Speaker 2 (24:47):
But that was concerning to me, So maybe I'm with Brian.
Did you say like the over in this game?
Speaker 1 (24:53):
Yes, yeah, it makes sense because if the Marlins are
going to try to force length out of junk, he's
probably going to get hit second or third time through
the order. And I just don't trust Arraghetti right now.
He got he two was too all over the place,
and that started against Tacoma, and typically the longer rehab
stints are like like two sometimes.
Speaker 2 (25:14):
Three starts at Triple A.
Speaker 1 (25:15):
So the fact that he's only made one at Triple
A and now he's coming up to face a Marlins
team that we know can get hot in the plate
concerning on both ends. So I think I'm with Brian.
I think I think I see some runs in this one.
All right, let's go to uh station Play says number
one morning show is that of all morning shows? If so,
(25:35):
we'll I mean, we'll take that all day. We we
very much appreciate that. And yeah, that's uh that, that's
that's great. You know, we appreciate it.
Speaker 4 (25:47):
It's all about the personalities.
Speaker 1 (25:51):
And hey, we we have we have him for sure. Okay,
the chat is is talking about the Cubbies. Mister Finn said,
Cubs literally sold by Parlay the last two days. Can't
do it three days in a row. Wolf says, Cubs
way better offense than Reds. Five better is better than
the Reds ever had. Guys, we talked about this game
(26:13):
yesterday and I sort of threw the question out, do
you guys have any concerns about this Cubs team?
Speaker 2 (26:20):
I credited. I still haven't figured out who it was
in the chat.
Speaker 1 (26:24):
If you're in the chat, someone asked, if I'm slamming
a twisted tea, No, this is a minute made zero
sugar Lemonie. I haven't had a twisted tea in like
fifteen years. I actually didn't know that still existed. But anyway,
back to when I was talking about Oh, Cubs Cubs Reds.
We talked about it yesterday. I said I would want
(26:44):
no part of the Cubs at that price point, and
I felt like, I really want to remember who in
the chat pointed out this potential Cubs swoon that has
now fully come to life. Another day yesterday, Brian Leonard,
the Cubs lose five to one. Are you getting more
concerned and are you getting involved?
Speaker 2 (27:03):
Today? It's Kate Horton and Andrew Rabbit. How are you
seeing this one?
Speaker 4 (27:06):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (27:06):
Abbit, the lefty going for Cincinnati. Horton, the rookie with
the Cubs. We're looking at about a one twenty nine
favorite for the Cubs total of seven and a half,
lightly to the under or it's it's right there. Uh yeah.
Andrew Arabbitt, He's the guys perplexed us all season long.
I talked about the Brewers pitcher having more success than
(27:29):
his expected numbers. Andrew Abbot's been that way his entire career.
Two point one five, Yeah, r this year three point
three two expected one point one point one whip ground
ball right eighth percentile. But yet he pitches in Cincinnati.
He doesn't give up home runs. Hell knows you know
what's going on. Fastball velocity only twenty six or twenty
(27:50):
second percentile, Yet in his career he slightly under want
to strike out in any His struck out my walk
right this year is fourteen point two, which would not
show that he deserves these numbers. He's eight and one
other season. If you like to look at win losses,
Kate Horton three point four two ERA four point six
(28:13):
to five expected. I've watched him pitches. He's got some
some negative regression coming up one point two for a whip.
You look at his statcast page more more, a little
more blue than red. He's about an average major league
pitcher at this point. So you're paying for him with
a three point four two ERA one. Really it should
(28:33):
be about a full run higher than that. So I
don't want Kate Horton here. Abbot's a guy who perfects
me all year, So I am going to sit this
one out.
Speaker 4 (28:46):
So a lot of people are saying Cubs are much
better than the Reds. Not so fast. My friend, as
Leak Corso, would say Reds are pretty good and Abbot's
pretty good too. Who would have thought coming in on
in August sixth that Abbot would be eight wins in
one loss. I don't think anyone could have predicted that
at the beginning of the season. But he's been performing well,
(29:09):
and he performs well against these batters throughout his career.
What do I have him at. I got him a
two twenty four average against with the six eighty nine ops.
Not bad numbers against this team, and it's a good
sample size too. Currently I have both of the of
all the matchups that I that I ran the numbers
on today, this is the closest one of the day.
(29:30):
These teams are one point apart, so Cubs have a
slight advantage in bullpen and current form starting pictures dead
equal and Reds. I have them one point better in
batting right now, so I mean dead even if anything,
I think I trust Abbot a little more than Horton.
But my numbers really like Horton, even though I haven't
(29:52):
really checked. I haven't really watched him closely, so I
don't have a good read on him. My numbers love him.
So two really good pictures and uh, two mediocre bullpins
and two hitters that aren't two lineups that aren't producing well.
Might think about an under Might think about the Reds,
haven't haven't, haven't done anything on it yet.
Speaker 1 (30:15):
The body language has been so bad the last couple
of days for the Cubs. They like it's just been
like they look like a team that's like I said
this yesterday before the game. I felt like at times
they looked like a team yesterday that that already like
knew they were going to lose, or like almost counted
the loss, like long before the game what was over.
(30:37):
It's just been if you look in that dugout when
they panned the dugout, the body language is horrible and
they are they are playing like a defeated team right now.
I don't know how you could possibly lay a dollar
thirty under those circumstances against Abbott with Horton on the now,
because I do agree with Brian, there's probably Horton's going
(30:58):
to be a very good pitcher.
Speaker 2 (30:59):
He came up with a ton of hype and a
lot of it was deservedly.
Speaker 1 (31:03):
So, and he's actually got off to a very good
start to his big league career.
Speaker 2 (31:08):
But I do think that there's likely some.
Speaker 1 (31:10):
Regression, especially this year, especially in his rookie season, whereas
Andrew Rabbit's just been lights out. I mean, he's just
been awesome start to finish this year. I have no
real reason to want to bet against him, and so
they're gonna give you plus one twenty with Abbot against
a Cubs team that every time I turn on the
Cubs game the last literally the last three four days,
(31:34):
the body language is terrible, you know, bad, like bad
at that and then sort of like going back to
the dugout almost looks like reminds me of when I
was coaching, you know, fifteen six year old kids. They're
coming back pouting. I'm like, I don't care if we
struck out. Let's let's get you know, let's get in
the game here. I don't need to like see you
pout in the dugout. It's been terrible body language. I noticed,
(31:54):
like Kyle Tucker like looks like his girlfriend broke up
with him. He's just miserable. It's just like it's just bad.
It just doesn't look like a team. They need to
wake up. And until that happens, I don't know how
you can lay prices with them. So it have to
be reds are passed here for me with what's easily
the better pitcher in abbot and they didn't even use
(32:16):
all of their top leverage guys yesterday, so the bullpen's
not a huge difference either. Reds plus money makes a
lot of sense here to me. God, I got to
see the Cubs wake up before I can bet on
them going forward. I want to bring up this comment.
This is going back through the last game, but just
real quick, Nan says, you said last week pitchers had
to get knocked around, and rehab starts coming up are
(32:38):
coming up bait when brought up, it is always a
case by case basis, and I do think I have
a little bit of an edge on the books because
I'm watching a lot of these minor league games, and
you have to understand that every human being is different,
every player is different, every rehab start length is different.
Speaker 2 (32:58):
It's all tailored to the player.
Speaker 1 (33:00):
In relation to Raghetti, I was just saying, like when
a guy gets kind of slapped around, I'm like a
full start like that at Triple A and he's only
had one Triple A start.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
They tend to give him another one.
Speaker 1 (33:11):
So the fact that he's coming back up tells me
they might be jumping the gun a little bit.
Speaker 2 (33:15):
Go ahead.
Speaker 3 (33:15):
Ran just wanted to point out, not that people are
watching this video, but right after we started talking about it,
Juhnk has taken a lot of money across the board.
So somebody out there who bets professionally likes Miami in
this game.
Speaker 1 (33:34):
Yeah, yeah, I don't blame him, Like I said, the
only thing that's probably I'm not even like fully off
of Miami yet. It's just I really wish they like
won yesterday. I don't like the fact that they've lost
two in a row now because we've seen it go
in the other direction for them, but it definitely makes sense.
I can't disagree with that. All right, Gee Hurt, ge
(33:56):
Hurt wants to know. That's our guy, g Hurt. He's
always here, so shout out to ge Hurt. He is
a Tigers fan, and I think he lives in Michigan.
But he's asking about a different game today, which is
one of the last games on the board and a
game that I wanted to talk about because I have
an opinion here. He's saying, well, first of all, what
a pitching matchup we have here of like, you know,
(34:18):
veteran guys that have missed some time.
Speaker 2 (34:20):
Anthony D.
Speaker 1 (34:21):
Scalfini for the Diamondbacks who missed almost a year and
I didn't think we'd ever see him back in the
big leagues. And then, of course the one g Hurt
wants to know about is Nestor Cortez, who's now on
his new team. One of the slew of moves that
the Padres made, and he's going to get the start
here today.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
I got it.
Speaker 1 (34:41):
I didn't know if he was going to be in
their starting rotation. Brian, does this surprise you at all?
And how do you get involved with Diamondbacks Padres here?
Speaker 3 (34:49):
Nestor the molester Cortes. He's going to be running for president,
by the way, once he finishes as major league duties
were looking at. That's my political rant of the day. Yeah,
we're we're looking at two veterans that have not as
you mentioned, have have not played in a while. Nestra
(35:15):
went over to Milwaukee. They let him go and get Testefani,
who you were smart enough to recognize last week that
he was a guy you wanted to fade both the ride's.
By the way, Arizona is an underdog in this game
to San Diego about a one thirty eight forty favorite
(35:37):
nester is against dscafani total nine and a half to
the under. And this is a good hitting ballpark. So
if you think either one of these guys are going
to struggle, that to get even money on a on
an over nine and a half may not be a bad,
bad bet. That's the first thing I look at here. Cortes.
(35:58):
I've liked him better than obviously Major League Baseball teams
have because he's traveled a little bit lately. But his
career record three point eight eighty RA and one point
one seven whip. That's okay, but he's not guys gonna
blow you away. He just throws four Steamer forty two
to cut her thirty seven, and his fastball is like
(36:19):
three miles below average for a lefty, so he's not
gonna strike out a lot of guys. He does get
you just just whip a little bit, but not the
greatest strikeout pitcher out there. And when you're playing in Arizona,
you really would like to have some guys that can
get some strikeouts because that's less balls in play, and
this is a good hitters ballpark. Descapani this year in
(36:41):
twenty five innings four point nine to one ERA three
point eight two expected one point twenty nine. Whip is
era the last two years, four point eight eight two
years ago, he set out last year and in twenty
twenty two is six point six to three. Small sample size, no,
not one grett pictures, but it shows you what Arizona
(37:03):
has right now and they're desperate for it. I like
the over here and it's pretty self explanatory. I think
both offenses have success and I don't see either one
of these pictures going extremely long, especially Destefani, so you
may get a good first half over Let me see
(37:23):
what that is right now, first half over five to
the over twenty. Yeah, I like that also, so a
high scoring game here.
Speaker 4 (37:33):
Guys like and subscribe wager Talk's YouTube channel because not
only do we do total bases every day at the
same time, but US Baseball cappers put up individual game videos.
Adam had one yesterday and you'll get alerted when we
put one out so you can get the line before
it moves. In baseball, these lines move very quickly. So
(37:54):
I don't really have a read on either one of
these pictures because they don't have enough innings logged in
the last days. But I do know that Disclofani has
not pitched past the fourth inning the entire season, and
I don't expect him to today either, And that means
that this powerhouse of a lineup for San Diego will
(38:15):
get to tag this horrible Arizona bullpen for five innings
at least. So I go along Brian's lines there with
an over. I think san Diego's team total over or
even the game over, or even san Diego on the
money line might be a decent day. I go any
of those. I don't feel I don't feel enough conviction
(38:38):
to actually make a bet on those, but if I
were to, that's the way I would go. Cortes is
a veteran, even if he has a bad game. These
these veterans tend to limit the damage. You rarely see
guys like Cortees get lit up for like eight runs
or seven runs. Usually they can limit damage to like
four runs and still keep their team in a game.
(38:59):
So so for that reason, I think San Diego has
an advantage here, even at starting pitcher.
Speaker 2 (39:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (39:08):
I have so many thoughts about this game, and they're
like somewhat contradicting, but I want to just like lay
him out there. So first of all, Nester Cortes, Like
you want to just an example of just the embarrassment
of riches that is the.
Speaker 2 (39:20):
Milwaukee Brewers right now. He was awesome for like a month.
Speaker 1 (39:25):
I thought that they were gonna, like, I don't think
they could find a spot for it. Like he's been
at he's been in Triple A for the last month.
His numbers in July, uh in Triple A, which was
mostly or I'm sorry in the minors, which is mostly
Triple A. In July he has a one era, a
zero point seven to two whip in a one point
five to for batting average against. He's looked fantastic. He's
(39:49):
looked like nasty nester at Triple A. And then suddenly
I look up. He's not even on the team anymore.
He's now in San Diego. So you gotta think San
Diego maybe saw that or saw something where they were like, oh,
like they're gonna either have to let him go because
they don't want to let other guys go. So, you know, good,
good for San Diego for being able to to sort
(40:09):
of grab him. Now, can he come up and is
he gonna do that at the big league level? I
don't know, but like that's certainly encouraging that for a
month he's been just dealing at Triple A. Now on
the other side, De Scalfini, like was pitching very well
out of the bullpen for the Diamondback.
Speaker 2 (40:24):
So what did they do?
Speaker 1 (40:25):
They made him a start, makes no sense and he
comes out and get and gets rocked where he was
getting rocked as a starter in Triple A.
Speaker 2 (40:32):
But for a month prior to that, he was very
good out of the bullpen.
Speaker 1 (40:35):
Now, if I'm Tory Labello, I'm just I'm gonna put
an opener out there and let him come out of
the bullpen. But I'm sure they won't do that, and
so you know they'll probably leave him out there to
get to get rocked again.
Speaker 2 (40:47):
Where this one.
Speaker 1 (40:48):
What I'm gonna be looking for today is to see
what Arizona does with roster moves. I'm gonna see if
they move anyone up. They suddenly have a couple of
good arms at Triple A and arms and I would
love to see get a chance. Dirk is one of
them that that's looked good. And they just actually called
Andrew Hoffman up the other day, who was someone they
(41:10):
acquired from the Royals. He's actually been great since getting
up there, but I think he's now pitched back to back.
Speaker 2 (41:16):
Days, so we might not see him again here.
Speaker 1 (41:18):
The Padres are a team that I think I want
to fade in the short term, reason being I don't
like these teams that go out and try to remake
their team at the trade deadline, and then with a
team like the Padres, it's now where their position in
the market. I can't tell you how many people have
asked me, should I bet the Padres to win the
World Series? Oh, the Padres are winning the World Series.
It's like, yes, they made a bunch of moves, maybe
(41:41):
they improved their team, but I don't know if they're
that much better at this point. So where the numbers are, Like,
the fact that you could almost get Arizona plus one
and a half here is definitely appealing. I'm just going
to be looking to see if the Padres take money
throughout the day because I'm not really buying that they
are so much better than they were a week ago.
Yet the market seems to think that that's the case.
(42:02):
So very interesting game. But to go circle all the
way back to g Hurt's original question talk talking about Nestor,
he looked really good.
Speaker 2 (42:11):
For the past month, and he's going to get a
shot today.
Speaker 1 (42:14):
It'll be it'll be interesting to see how that one
plays out.
Speaker 2 (42:18):
Go ahead.
Speaker 3 (42:19):
One quick comment. When I said Nester to the molester,
I was just talking about the cartoon that was in
a Hustler magazine when I was growing up. It was
a gross cartoon, but nothing. I don't want missus Cortez
to call me up. And uh, that was that was
all a joke about the cartoon.
Speaker 4 (42:36):
And let me make a quick point about the Padres.
Don't bet them to win the World Series. Bet them
to win their division because they're only three games out,
they have a better bullpen than the Dodgers, and they're
plus five hundred to win that division. I think it's
rather than the World Series. Take plus five hundred on
the division.
Speaker 1 (42:54):
And that was like, just to go back to Nance's
original question, like, that's why it's so difficult to sort
of evaluate like a rehab stint, because you're looking at
a guy like Nester Cortez who's just been lights out
at Triple A. It would not surprise me in the
least it becomes up and gets hit today because it's
it's it's just it's really tough, and that's why it
(43:16):
really is a case by case basis, But you know,
it was it was I felt like it was worth
pointing out that he was fantastic for the last month
because someone else in the chat said, where's he been
the last four months? And it's like, well, he was hurt,
but for a month now he's been pitching in the
Brewers organization. So good discussion. There a very interesting game
that'll be one that'll be one that I'm I'm very
(43:38):
interested to watch, even if I don't have action. All Right,
Jay Maine and like a whole bunch of people want
to talk White Sox Mariners, and so Jay Maine says, says, Tokyo, Brandon,
tell me something good on cannon please, But first I'm
gonna go to Brian Leonard and let him open this
one up. We talked about White Sox yesterday maybe not
being the spot to do it, and they got crushed.
(43:59):
So is today better spot for the White Sox? Are
you going to stay out of this one again?
Speaker 4 (44:02):
Today?
Speaker 3 (44:05):
We'll have to see. It's early in the morning getting
my first look at the game, so I didn't see
anything overnight other than the Milwaukee that I thought was
a bargain. Yeah, the White Sox cannon against Kirby. Kirby's
been great lately. He looks like he's fully back, but
he's also about a two to fifty five favorite in
this game. Total seven and a half cannon comes in
(44:30):
and one one of my lesser favorite White Sox pitchers,
and it's unforce is that part of the rotation. He's
four and eight down the season, four point seven seventy
r a five point four expected one point four to
one whip. Everything on his Baseball Savant page is all blue,
which isn't good. The best thing he does is his
(44:53):
walk grate is seven point seven, which is slightly below
the garage, but his strike out to walk ratio is
only ten point three or excuse me, it's not racial.
Ten percentage ten point three not good. And George Kirby
has been fantastic, as I mentioned late lately's down that
era which was really high at one point down to
(45:17):
four point one to three expected three point six y
one more in the area that his career has been
one point one to three whip. A very good pitcher,
like everything about him, but he is getting hit a
little bit Avera Jaxson velocity twentieth percentile, heart hit rate
twenty eighth. I think a lot of that went dated
back to when he was just getting back from injuries,
(45:39):
So I take that with a grain of salt. If
there's every game in which one team looks like they're
going to win, it would be Seattle. And I had
done this long enough to know that any time I
have looked at a team like this thinking there's no
way they're going to lose, they lose, So that it
(46:00):
seemed like a thing the Chicago White Sox have been
able to do all season long. So I'm not gonna
lay it with Seattle, but it's very timpted. I'll pass.
Speaker 4 (46:12):
Yeah, I was. I was a little off on this
one yesterday. I kind of liked, Oh no, I wasn't.
I won this one yesterday. Yeah, I had the first
five under four and a half on this one and
I won it. Barely won it. It was three to
one after five innings, but at least it's a win. Canon.
I agree with Briani. He's not a great picture but
(46:33):
and I've got him rank seventeen on a curve of thirty,
but he has great stats against these batters. It's only
twenty at bats against, but he's held him to a
four hundred oh ps. And I think he I think
he can do similar to what to what they did
yesterday to Seattle. Now Seattle's lineup since they added Suarez,
(46:55):
it's pretty scary. Actually, I really like I liked a
Rosarania before this season, but this season, man, he just
seems like he doesn't care. But they got some hitter.
They got the best hitting catcher in all of MLB.
They got he's the home run leader. Still they got
they added Suarez. Suarez and Rally together probably the biggest
(47:18):
home run duo in all of MLB as far as numbers,
as far as number of home runs. So this lineup's
pretty scary. But I think Canon can hold them at
least two times a round, which is the first five innings.
I would if I were to bet this, I would
take the under in the first five because I also think.
I also like Kirby's numbers against the White Sox in
(47:39):
his career, and Kirby is ranked quite quite a lot
higher than Canon is. The White Sox are actually hitting
better than Seattle right now, which is kind of surprising.
But I think I think first five hunder would be
the way to go in this one if I were to,
if I were to bet it.
Speaker 1 (47:59):
Yeah, it's almost the same handicap as it was yesterday
for me. Where obviously I've been coming on, I've been
high in the White Sox. That's been a very profitable
read since we sort of like made that statement. I
remember it was the ninety game mark because they were
thirty and sixty, and my take was that they were
going to play close to five hundred ball the rest
of the way, and they've basically done that, even with
(48:22):
last night's loss. Since then, they're twelve and eleven. So
in every single game they've been like a plus money
sometimes even a two dollars underdog, So you know, that's
been profitable. That being said, like again I go back
to yesterday, everything sort of made sense except Davis Martin.
That's kind of how I look at it here. Everything
(48:43):
sort of makes sense except Jonathan Cannon. And so it'll
likely be the reason that I stay off and maybe
look toward tomorrow as the spot to get involved.
Speaker 2 (48:51):
With the White Sox.
Speaker 1 (48:53):
The Mariners are a team that I think profile is
to be a better bet on the road, not just
because they hit home runs, although that is thing, but
because the books really love to inflate this team at home,
so you almost get like the double it's like the
double positive when they go on the road, because the
books don't give the Mariners, at least they didn't a
(49:13):
couple months ago.
Speaker 2 (49:13):
Now they do a little bit.
Speaker 1 (49:15):
They don't give him nearly as much respect on the road,
and yet they profile better on the road because they
hit more home runs and typically they're in a ballpark
that suits hitting home runs. At home, they tend to
be a big favorite, which I'm not quite sure is,
you know, based on what they've done the last couple
of years at home, I'm not sure that they should
just be like this big inflated favorite at home and
(49:35):
then they're in a ballpark that that's very tough to
hit the ball out of.
Speaker 2 (49:38):
But again, it's just.
Speaker 1 (49:40):
It's Jonathan Cannon. There's a lot of blue on that
stat cast page. He's not someone I really trust. And
could you get the is the are the White Sox
going cold a little bit? I mean, that's been a
really impressive twenty three game stretch where.
Speaker 2 (49:53):
They've gone twelve and eleven.
Speaker 1 (49:56):
That's my gut says maybe that, you know, after yesterday,
they didn't really play well.
Speaker 2 (50:00):
So that's concerning to me.
Speaker 1 (50:02):
So as much as i'd love to, you know, sort
of take that white Sox plus one and a half
as someone's in the chats like that's the trigger special, Yeah,
it definitely is. I just don't know if this is
the spot, and I don't know if Cannon is the
guy that I want to get involved with here, So
likely a pass for me, all right, Sean, Tigers white so.
Speaker 4 (50:21):
White Sox plus one and a half is synonymous with
Adam trigger.
Speaker 1 (50:25):
Yeah, and usually when I give it out, it wins.
I mean you more often than not when I've talked
about it on the show, it's it's been the right
side that like as a play here, I want to
make it clear here, I am not telling you to
play that.
Speaker 2 (50:37):
I don't think this is the spot to do that.
Speaker 1 (50:41):
All right, Sean wants to talk Tiger's Twins. We've got
about nine minutes left, so we're gonna do the title.
We're gonna do this game. We'll break down this game.
Then we'll each just throw out a parlay leg at
the end. Because we really haven't talked about him yet
and we'll and that's how we'll wrap up the show.
But let's do let's give Tigers Twins the full rub first.
So yesterday the Twins I finally did what I hope
they would do a week ago, call Luke Keshell up.
(51:03):
And that's what I want to see from them. I
want to see them get these exciting players in the lineup.
Brian Leonard, you back in April said Luke Keshall might
be the best player in this organization right now, or
one of them.
Speaker 2 (51:15):
And then he got called up.
Speaker 1 (51:16):
He was awesome, and I think he broke his arm
or had like an injury that kept him out for
some time. Yesterday he's up. What do you know, first
big league homer and he's the most exciting player on
the field. Does that give you any sort of you know,
reason to want to back the Twins here or going vote?
Speaker 3 (51:32):
Yeah, as a Twins fan, I'd love to see the
young guys come up. This is actually Nate Barghesi special.
If you follow the media, Nate Barghesy. He always talks
about his accent and he can't say the word oil. Well,
his ideal picture is going today for Minnesota is his
name is all all hl Christian relief in the series
(51:56):
against Cleveland, going up against Flaherty is about maybe a
one seventy favorite right now. It's bouncing all over with
an eight. You can get as low as one fifty
eight and you can get as high as like a
one fifty two on the comeback there. But Pearson all
six foot one, twenty five year old pitch relief. The
(52:18):
other day he started one game as a as an opener. Basically,
he's only got six innings in total, so he's only
going to go probably three here if he goes that
long at all. I don't know that much about him.
He went to Grand Canyon University, that's Marley's University, and uh,
we'll see how it does. I thought he pitched pretty
(52:40):
well the other day against Cleveland. Jack Flaherty four point
three six ERA, three point nine to three expected one
point two five whip. When you look at Flaherty, you
got to look at his splits home games three point
three eight e RA on the road five point sixty nine,
and that comes out. He was awesome on the road
(53:01):
the other day. So he's still got over you know,
two and a half, about two and a half runs
higher on the road than at home. The question you
have to ask here is, first of all, you probably
want to fade Minnesota because of the bullpen. I talked
about that yesterday. He tried to fell behind like six
(53:23):
to one, and then Minnesota or Detroit ended up. I
was scoring them in the second half of the game,
which which was a good bet. But you've got a
team in Minnesota who has traded all the players away.
They're giving the kids a chance. I like that. I
don't want a lot of veterans on this team. If
I'm Minnesota, I want kids to care and want to
(53:43):
prove themselves. But you also have a Detroit team that's
not playing well, haven't played well for the last month,
and you're laying a pretty good number here. So do
I think Detroy is gonna win? Yes? Am I willing
to lay this number? No, I'll pass.
Speaker 4 (54:00):
So. I was one of Flerity's best backers' biggest backers
when they played Philadelphia last week. He was facing Christopher Sanchez.
I made the bold statement Flarity is going to pitch
better than Sanchez, and he did, but they lost the game.
I've been backing Detroit since that Philly series. And I've
been making money with him more than back in Detroit.
(54:23):
I've been fading Minnesota since they traded forty percent of
their roster away at the trade deadline. However, Flarity's road
numbers really scare me here. I don't think. I don't
think Minnesota's going to win the game, but I do
think Minnesota's gonna score a lot today. So just for
(54:44):
that reason, it kind of scares me to lay this
number with Detroit. So I think Detroit's gonna win, but
I'm not gonna bet it.
Speaker 1 (54:53):
I will be a likely be a Twins backer going forward,
and as they make these moves, I'll be I'll be
using them more reason being last night Saint Paul Saints,
that's their Triple A team, fourteen hits. I mean, Peyton
El's is the guy that I wish they would give
a shot. The two guys that just came up from
Double A, Kyler Fedco, Gabriel Gonzalez both going to be
(55:15):
very very good players.
Speaker 2 (55:16):
Just bring them up. They did.
Speaker 1 (55:17):
They They made the right decision to bring Keshel up.
James Outman is now in the Twins organization. They got
him in and I think he was part of the
Brox Stewart trade.
Speaker 2 (55:27):
He's having a great year at Triple A. He should
like he was just chilling in.
Speaker 1 (55:32):
The Dodgers organization because they didn't ever have a room
for him, and then he wasn't great at the big
league level. But still, why what, like what are we doing? Like,
let's just get these guys up and play them all.
The more that they bring these guys up, the more
inclined I'm going to be willing to play on the
Twins because I think the books are going to look
and say, oh, it's all Triple A guys, when in
reality they're better than the guys that are in the
(55:52):
Twins lineup on a daily basis. Pearson Ole is Zebbie
Matthews two point zero? Uh, they this is what the
Twins like to do. He started the year a ball,
but he's a four year He's one of these like
four year mid major college guys, as Brian Leonard said,
Grand Canyon University. I think Zebi went to Western Carolina,
so they're already like twenty five years old. So the
Twins don't want to mess around. They just want to
(56:13):
get them up seeing what they can do. All is
a guy that's kind of bounced around from bullpen to starter.
I think he'll go three or four innings, but I
think he's gonna give you three or four good innings
here and then you know the bullpen. It's irrelevant who
comes in for the twins. Their price is a bottom
bullpen right now. I saw they grab Thomas Hatch, who's
been in the Royals organization. Maybe you see him today.
(56:35):
Twins plus one and a half is the way I
want to go. That's gonna be my parlay leg and
if I can get like ten to fifteen more cents
of value as the day goes on, that might actually
be a client play for me.
Speaker 2 (56:44):
But Brian Leonard, what are we looking at for?
Speaker 4 (56:46):
Let me let me let me correct myself real quick flirt.
He's at home today, not on the road. My mistake,
Sorry about that. So in that case, in that case,
I might consider backing Detroit take a minus one roads.
That's kind of scared me. But but he's at home, so.
Speaker 1 (57:04):
Yeah, And he's been really good, Like, don't get me wrong,
Flarity has been very good.
Speaker 2 (57:09):
But I just he's not.
Speaker 1 (57:10):
Someone that I'm like that, you know, unwilling to oppose
if I'm getting a run in a half, So I
wanted to make sure that I touched on flarity because
he's he has solid but I don't know that he's
going to continue to pitch like.
Speaker 3 (57:24):
This going forward.
Speaker 2 (57:25):
So Brian, what are we looking at for twins plus
one and a half?
Speaker 3 (57:28):
I met Minnesota plus one and a half is one
forty five and I did hear you say that, but
I just greg we're sorry to be but I just
thought it was slipping the tongue, so I didn't say anything.
Speaker 4 (57:40):
No problem, my mistake. I'm sorry about that.
Speaker 2 (57:44):
All right. So that'll be my leg of the parlay again.
Speaker 1 (57:47):
I'm hoping the Tigers take money throughout the day, as
I may add that to the client car, but at
worst it'll just end up being a parlay leg because
I can justify putting minus one forty five juice in
the parlay.
Speaker 2 (58:00):
Either of you know what parlay lead you're gonna use
at this point, I do.
Speaker 3 (58:04):
I have a let Brandon go first, all right?
Speaker 4 (58:09):
Is that all right? Okay? Sorry about that, Brian, didn't
mean to step on you.
Speaker 5 (58:12):
Other I like I like the the Angels team total
under four and a half today, and the reason I
like it is because I really like how Baz is
pitched against them.
Speaker 4 (58:27):
Their bats are cooling off a little bit little cold, uh,
and the Baz has a one to twenty five average
against in a three eighty eight ops against him. He's
the best performing pitcher against the batters today. Although the
sample size is a little small, but I think four
and a half is a little bit high. I like
the Rays bullpen, and I think the Angels have been
(58:50):
in a little bit of a quagmire here, so I
don't think they're gonna get to five today. This looks
like a looks like an undergame to me overall. But
the four and a half really stood out. I you know,
before I open the lines up, I have in my
mind what I think it's gonna be. And I had
three and a half in my mind. Now was like
four and a half. Wow, So that'll be my leg.
Speaker 3 (59:11):
It's minus one forty five.
Speaker 1 (59:13):
Also, yeah, I want it real real quick, Like I Sean,
I Sean says it's Woods Richardson for the Twins.
Speaker 2 (59:23):
I don't think so.
Speaker 1 (59:23):
I'm pretty sure they're gonna use Pierson Old to start
and if it's if they don't. But the other thing is,
like all will pitch today So even if they were
to change that, not a big deal because he's gonna
be He's gonna give you three or four innings regardless
of where he comes into the game. So even if
they decided to switch that around, I still think you
see him for three to four innings.
Speaker 2 (59:42):
Today doesn't change my handicap.
Speaker 3 (59:45):
Yeah, and it makes sense that way the second guy
and can get the victory. A lot of teams do that.
But uh, yeah, So since you both took favorites, I'll
take an underdog, and uh I'll go Cincinnati with Abbott
here going against the Cubs. Cincinnati currently plus let's anywhere
(01:00:07):
from one ten to one twenty three. So let's just
go about one sixteen, one seventeen on Cincinnati.
Speaker 2 (01:00:17):
All right, And what was the juice for TV's play.
Speaker 3 (01:00:20):
Also the one forty five minus one forty five same
as yours.
Speaker 1 (01:00:24):
All right, all right, so we are let me just
punch this in. And yeah, I did see Sean. I
did see Woods richardson the other day get pushed back.
But he was also sick, so like I think it
was an illness type thing. He may just be scratched altogether.
I wouldn't be surprised if you didn't see him today
because I'm pretty sure when he was pushed back for
(01:00:46):
Monday to Wednday Wednesday, it was illness and they might
just say you're not feeling good, you're gonna get skipped
this time around. So I h he's either I don't
know if you're going to see him today, but I
do believe it's pearsonal to start and that's been posted
by a couple of different sites now. So anyway, parlay
it's going to be plus five nineteen on the odds.
(01:01:09):
We've got Brian Leonard Reds plus one seventeen Tokyo, Brandon's
going Angels team total under four and a half, and
I'm gonna use the Twins plus one and a half
in their game against the Tigers. It's plus five nineteen. Hopefully,
hopefully we can get in the win column. Need about
one of these a week to stay afloat, and that's
kind of what we've done so far this year is
(01:01:31):
stay afloat. Now it's time to push this back into
you know, profit territory. Though we're still up five point
four units on these on the season. So that's our
parlay for today. My leg Twins plus one and a half,
Tokyo Brandon Angels team total under four and a half,
Brian Leonard Red's money line for the game plus five nineteen.
(01:01:53):
Appreciate you guys tuning in, give us the light and subscribes,
you know. Head on over to the wager talk YouTube
channel if you want to catch the replay.
Speaker 2 (01:02:01):
It is always up.
Speaker 1 (01:02:03):
We all have stuff up at wager talk dot com
and we'll see you guys in the morning for another
episode of Total Basis nine am tomorrow morning.
Speaker 2 (01:02:10):
Take care,
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