Total Bases | Beat the Books! Your Daily MLB Betting Fix - Predictions and Best Bets for August 8

Looking for the best MLB picks, predictions, and betting tips for Friday, August 8, 2025? Tune in to Total Bases with expert handicappers Adam Trigger, Bryan Leonard and Tokyo Brandon as they break down today’s MLB matchups with sharp insights and actionable advice.

00:00 Introduction
01:14 Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves
11:02 New York Yankees vs Houston Astros
20:35 Oakland Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles
29:30 Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox
39:59 Adam's camera
40:25 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies
51:35 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays
59:55 Parlay of the Day

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:03):
All right, welcome in everyone, tot It's Friday, Total Bases.
We should have filmed the last six minutes backstage. We
started the show without you, guys, but we'll make sure
we rehash what we were talking about here over the
next hour. Your go to show for Major League Baseball
Free Picks on the wager Talk YouTube channel. And it's

(00:23):
a Friday, fifteen games, so no time to waste here.
Brian Leonard backstage said we got to hit this game.
I said, let's hit it off the top, and of
course we have to touch on it because the Miami
Marlins ruined the parlay yesterday TV's TV's leg.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
Early in the day was a no doubter.

Speaker 1 (00:41):
Brian got the push in a seven nothing went with
the Pirates, and for the second time this year, guys,
we were sitting there ready to cash a parlay with
the Marlins having a very large lead. If you remember
the other time it was when they were up six
to nothing against the Padres and couldn't cover plus one.

Speaker 2 (00:56):
And a half.

Speaker 1 (00:57):
But last night a six to two lead and they
let that one slip away at the end. And what
we were talking about backstage a little bit was, you know,
the Marlins are starting to play big games now. There
are only six games, six and a half games out
of the wild Card, even with the loss yesterday, So
at what point does that start to creep in? And

(01:17):
you know, two months ago they're just able to go
out and do what they want to do. Now it's
like there's a little bit of expectations here and it's
a young team. So, Brian Leonard, you wanted to look
at Marlin's braves. What are you looking at in this matchup?

Speaker 3 (01:30):
Yeah? The first thing I want to look at was
because of what happened last night, the way they lost,
I wanted to find a way to come back on
Miami here. And they do have Edward Cabrera going who
has held the opposition to two runs or less than
nine of his last ten starts. He's been terrific as

(01:50):
of late. And as I'm sitting there waiting for the
show to start, I'm seeing the line get hit and
I'll say and then I told you, I said, we're
gonna have to start off with this, so make sure
we get some piece of Miami here. So this is
going to be my first part of the parlay. And
I never started a show off this way, But a
lot of people look like they're thinking the same way

(02:12):
I am on this one, So we want to make
it to our advantage of getting the best line possible.
I want the first half in this one. It was
one thirty one night leave the show, but before the
show started. Now it's one thirty five. But there's a
big pitching Mitch mismatch here for Miami. Miami overall is

(02:32):
basically about a one one twenty nine favorite here with
Cabrera against Elder, a guy that we've had a lot
of success fading all season long. The total in this
one is eight, but I have the first half. I'm
gonna lay in an extra nickel and get it up
to one thirty five and play Miami.

Speaker 1 (02:51):
Here.

Speaker 3 (02:51):
I talked about Cabrera what he's done lately. If you
look at what he's done on the season, three point
two four era, three point eight two expected, one point
one nine whip and really, if you followed his career,
he has had this is now in his fifth season.
He has had double digit walk rates every year. In fact,

(03:12):
his best walk rate was eleven point two percent. Now
he's down to eight point two. He's getting some control
and that makes him so much better, and his for
semer is he only throws at thirteen percent of the time.
So he's got the curve, the change, the sinker, and
the slider. He's got solid five pitches here, and the

(03:37):
he throws them faster than everybody else. In fact, his
change is at ninety three point nine as opposed to
right handed pitcher's average of eighty six point six. So
he's got solid pitches all around, and he throws the
ball faster. The only negative would be a hard hit
rate of twenty three percent, but you know, the barrel
rates league average right ever, at forty nine percent, his

(04:00):
walk grade finally below league average. I like Edward Cabrera,
and I like this Miami team, And as we talked about,
he's going up against Bryce Elder, who is not a
guy I'm looking to back. Last year, he had a
six point five to two ERA when ten starts. This
year he's got a six point zero three ERA in
eighteen starts. His whip has been horrendous. Last year one

(04:22):
point sixty three, this year one point five six. The
only thing he's good at is his ground ball percentage
in the seventy eighth percentile. Everything else is in the
blue expected batty average, second percentele expected era fifth part
hit rate thirteenth extension eighteenth and we've got Atlanta team.
As I mentioned going into yesterday that the only guys

(04:45):
that were hitting well were the guys that really don't
hit for power. All the power guys are slumping.

Speaker 4 (04:51):
Now.

Speaker 3 (04:51):
They did have they did have some success. I believe
they hit a couple home runs yesterday, so maybe they're
coming out of the slump. But it's gonna be tough
to beat this Miami team. This is a team now
that is being talked about. And I had lunch with
a friend a couple of days ago and he said,
what's with this Miami Dade? And I said, hey, you
can need to watch the show Man. We've been on
Miami all year long. We made a lot of money

(05:13):
on Miami. I like this team. This was the game
that I had circled, and unfortunately I didn give it
out last night with the better number, but I'm going
to use it here as my parlay Miami first half
minus one thirty five.

Speaker 4 (05:27):
Yeah, guys, go to our page at wager talk dot
com and see what we have offered. We usually put
free plays out too, so just a five minute check.
You can pick up some free plays from all three
of us. I'm on a pretty good run right now.
I'm number one in the last three days, seven days,
and in twenty twenty five, so I'm kind of feeling
it right now, and i have an MLB play out today.

(05:49):
I'm sure my brethren here will have something out as
well today because there's lots of juicy matchups today, including
this one. My cap for this one is pretty much
the same as yesterday. Miami has almost every advantage here,
but they even have a bigger starting pitcher advantage today
than they did yesterday. In my opinion, Bryce Elder has

(06:12):
horrible numbers against these guys in his career. He's got
in his career three ninety one batting average against in
a nine thirty eight OPS. That's terrible. It's two hundred
points over my Mendoza Ligne for OPS. And you know,
let's see, Miami's got the better bullpen in my opinion,

(06:35):
even though they pretty much choked it away yesterday. Cabrera's
got a couple red flags as far as I'm concerned,
but his red flags are not nearly as big as
Elder's red flags, and Miami's hitting the ball better in
current form, So I don't think there's any other way
you could go. But Miami today. I'm actually happy they
lost yesterday because it's it's it's you'll probably get even

(06:56):
a better number and they'll have a little more motivation
to win the game today. So yeah, I agree with
Brian that would be the way to go.

Speaker 1 (07:05):
A couple of weeks ago, about a month ago, when
we were talking about the All Star Game and the
flawed process of selecting All Stars.

Speaker 2 (07:12):
The other thing that's a flaw with that is the
fact that it's.

Speaker 1 (07:16):
Essentially only based on the first half of the season, right,
Like how you know what I mean? We pick an
All Star team and we call a guy an All Star,
but it's only based on the first.

Speaker 2 (07:25):
Half of the season.

Speaker 1 (07:26):
And I just every time he comes up, I ask myself, like,
how much mileage is Bryce Eu They're gonna get out
of that twenty twenty three All Star selection because it
was basically like the best couple of months of his career,
And I don't know that he would still like be
in the mix at the big league level the way
he is if it wasn't for that, Like a couple

(07:47):
months stretch, which somehow got him on an All Star team,
because not only is he just not and I have
no I'm sure he's a great guy, and I don't
like to like talk negatively about you know, it's like
in real life he's probably a great guy. So I'm
not like like hate on him as a person, but
like that, like he's just not that.

Speaker 2 (08:04):
Good, Like he's just that he is a I.

Speaker 1 (08:07):
Feel like his ceiling is like striple a innings Zeter
guy that's gonna like. You know, he's probably a pretty
good pro guy you want to keep around in your organization,
but not not someone you should be running out.

Speaker 2 (08:20):
At the big league level at.

Speaker 1 (08:22):
The rate that the Braves have run him out the
last couple of years. I mean, listen, every team gets
in a pinch, you need to start. Yeah, he's probably
a good guy to do that, but you know, Brian
references to stackcast page all the time, Baseball Savant best
website there is. Should always be looking at that literally
the bottom percentile in a lot of categories, and that's

(08:43):
like it's not the end all be all, but it's
it's usually pretty accurate. Like when guys are are in
the bottom one percent of like starting pitchers, and it's
like prominent throughout the their page. Not a very good
starting You can pretty much take that to the bank
in a lot of cases, and I think you could

(09:05):
do that with Elder Tokyo. Brandon talked about Elder's numbers
against the Marlins. Yeah, that doesn't surprise me. Of course,
they have good numbers against him because not only is
he's someone I think you'd be willing to play against,
but the Marlins have probably seen him quite a bit
now because the Braves have been running him out there
for years at this point. So even these young Marlins,
some of which didn't get up to last year or

(09:26):
earlier this year, have a little bit.

Speaker 2 (09:28):
Of a sample size against him.

Speaker 1 (09:29):
So that's a plus in the Marlins category as well. Finally,
Cabrera is a guy. He's on the other end of
the spectrum where he's had some struggles at times. It's
typically command related, but when he puts it together, he's like,
he's awesome, And if he could ever put it together consistently,
we talking about him like we've talked about like Santi

(09:51):
Alcntra for the Marlins the last few years. I'm not
saying he's gonna win a cy young but he's that's
probably where his upside is in that organization.

Speaker 2 (09:58):
So yeah, I.

Speaker 1 (10:00):
Marlins is on my short list today. Love that Brian
put it in the parlay. The final thing I'll say
about this Marlins team, though, is what we talked about
a little bit off camera, where now they're going to
start to play some big games. Now there's some expectations
and instead of getting like plus one ten, you're suddenly
getting minus one. You're gonna have to lay minus one fifteen,
maybe even minus one twenty on a daily basis in

(10:21):
spots like this, So something you have to consider. Mark
Kinson says, those goddamn Marlins. I'm going right back to
them today. Don't disagree with that. I think that's the
play in this game. So good luck if you take
the Marlins tonight, and hopefully for our sake, Brian gets
it done for the parlor, which is we need to
win one of these Jose. He said, yeah, you see

(10:43):
why I said first five or the fish yesterday. Yet
that ended up playing out correctly, and that would be
the one thing I think Brian makes a smart read
on going first five.

Speaker 2 (10:52):
Their bullpen is definitely tired.

Speaker 1 (10:54):
They've logged some innings the last few days, and you
know it's it's notable, So take that in a consideration.
All right, moving on, a couple of people want to
talk about this game. Mark Martin, welcome in. I don't
know if I've seen Mark comment before. So if if
you're if you're new, or if I've missed you, welcome in.
Appreciate the comment, and as always, like and subscribe to

(11:15):
the Way You.

Speaker 2 (11:15):
Talk To YouTube channel.

Speaker 1 (11:16):
But Mark says the Yankee Hitters of a good history
against Brown, was about to play Brown's strikeouts until I
saw that. So let's talk about these two teams. Astros Yankees,
Brian Leonard, this is suddenly a huge series for two
teams that have kind of been on a little bit
of a swoon coming into this weekend. It's at Yankee Stadium.

(11:37):
I still really like Hunter Brown, though. How are you
seeing this one? It's our guy, Cam Schlittler, Hunter Brown,
Yankee Stadium tonight.

Speaker 4 (11:45):
Say that ten times fast.

Speaker 3 (11:46):
Yeah, I'm not going to I'll go on Cam. I
do want to point out we were talking about the
All Star Game. David Fry for the Guardians made the
All Star team last year, three months of great He's
all for him in his entire career and it all
happened in one year. Yeah, Brown against Cam this game,

(12:08):
the opening line made a lot of sense if you
take a look at the two starters. Overall, Houston was
a one thirty favorite. You can get the Yankees at
one ten. A lot of money's coming in on the Yankees,
and I don't I don't blame him. I thought there
was some value on New York playing at home, and
I'm you know, I'm not the guy who plays the

(12:28):
Yankees very often because you just don't find betting value
on them. But for that line to move to where
the Yankees are now either a pick them or a
slate favorite in this game, yeah, I can see that
total on that is seven and a half, so they
expect a low scoring game. Here hundred Brown stats. He's
been terrific. We love him. Two point four to seven

(12:49):
ERA three point oh one expected zero point nine. Ay whip. Normally,
when you find an ace and I noticed this years ago,
when you find an ace and money comes in early
against him, that is a good bet on going against
that pitcher. And so that has me interested in the

(13:10):
Yankees here. Brown, We've talked about him many times. Just
an excellent pitcher, a lot of success all season long.
His last two starts have been much better. He's he
played the rep Sox give up one run in seven,
played the A's give up one run in five. But
before that he's struggled a little bit. Giving up three,
four and six is prior three starts. But he seems

(13:32):
to be back on track here. But I think there's
value here on the Yankees. Ham comes in with a
four point five eight ERA five point zero one expected
one point six eight whip, which is really Worriso fastball
velocity in the ninety fourth percent of ale that those
numbers come around. Doesn't take as many pitches to get

(13:54):
solid numbers on that along with the extension he's only
keep in mind he's only pitched nineteen point two so
a lot of his numbers are still not enough opportunities,
not enough pitches thrown, not enough batter's faced to get
actual usage numbers out of them. So we don't have
a lot of that going. But he's a guy who
does have five pitches. He only throws a sinker and

(14:16):
a sweeper less than ten percent of the time. He's
a major four seam guy. Fifty seven percent of the
time he throws the four seamer, which I normally don't like,
but he throws it at ninety seven point eight miles
an hour, which is about three miles an hour more
than a normal righty. He can get away with that.
So they're going against this Houston team right now that

(14:37):
is fighting it out with the Yankees, and Houston's trying
to hold off the opposition. The Yankees trying to get
back in the wildcard race. They are barely holding on
right now, fighting it out with Texas Seattle. So this
is going to be a nice wildcard run through the
rest of the season. But I like the situation of
going against the A's. The money's come in on that,

(14:59):
and this is all early money. A lot of these
guys are betting it as early as they possibly can,
and you get a piece of it, and I agree
with that. I like the Yankees here, and I would
say if you do like them and continues to get hit,
if you do like the Yankees, get them now as
oppostal later.

Speaker 4 (15:19):
I'm not sure I can agree, because man, I think
Brown is a pretty good pitcher, and I think Schlittler
is a pretty bad picture, but actually looking a little closer,
Schlitzler in his last few starts, he's basically giving up
two runs, three runs, two runs. It's not that bad actually,
but his whip is really high, which tells me that
I think he's been getting a little bit lucky. I

(15:43):
have the Astros hitting just a little bit better, not
a lot, just a little, But I have the Yankees
with a bullpen advantage. So it's kind of deadlocked for
me here in this matchup except for starting pitching. I
got Hunter Brown ranked in the top twenty of all
starting pitchers, and the Yankees just seem really dead. Something's

(16:05):
wrong with them. I don't know if they're feeling the pressure.
I think it's pretty hard to play in New York.
Perhaps I think they're feeling some pressure here. They dropped
a third place in the ranking. They're behind Boston and
Toronto now, so yeah, they do have a slight bullpen
advantage as far as a recent form, despite their moronic

(16:29):
manager trotting Williams out there to close games despite his
six plus ERA. So we'll see how it goes. But man,
I think it would be hard to trust the Yankees.
But I'm not going to play this game.

Speaker 1 (16:42):
Yeah, I'm not gonna make this any easier because I
kind of agree with both of you, Like, I think
you both make really good points for this game. So
Tokyo Brainy, you pointed out the Yankees having a bullpen advantage,
Like I actually, even though the numbers might not suggest
it recently, Like, I very much agree with that because
I think when you look at this election of relievers,
you have to look and say, like, all of these

(17:05):
guys when they're on their game can be very very good, right, Like,
and we poke fun at Devin Williams struggles and stuff,
and yeah, like he's having a bad season, but like
Bednar Williams, even Jake Birds who's went back to the
minors for a minute. And then of course the relievers
they have, they're like when if they're all like, there's
gonna be a point in time where they sort of

(17:26):
like are all pitching well at the same time, and
then all of a sudden, that Yankee bullpen's gonna be
very tough to score on late. So I don't really
know if I want to bet against the Yankees right now.
I feel like your opportunity to bet against the Yankees
was like the past week or so, this is gonna
feel like a playoff game in the Bronx tonight. It
really will like this will have a playoff game five

(17:47):
to it Friday night, Yankee Stadium, you know too, like a.

Speaker 2 (17:52):
Two very solid pitchers, two teams in the mix.

Speaker 1 (17:55):
I thought I was gonna want to play Hunter Brown
here because I'm very am a big Hunter Brown guy,
really am high. I've been higher on him relative to
the market since the very beginning of the season. But
like you know, Schlitler is not a bat. I mean,
he throws throwing ninety eight and the league hasn't seen
much of him yet. So even though he's given up
a couple of runs per start, like, he certainly has

(18:17):
the the stuff and the upside to go on a
run where he's throwing six seven scoreless innings.

Speaker 2 (18:22):
So I'm not sure I want to bet against him.

Speaker 1 (18:24):
I don't really want to bet against Brown, and I
my gut tells me we're done with the Yankees choking
games away for a minute, especially on their home field
in the Bronx. I feel like, if anything, they're gonna
steal one that they're you know, this week and you
watch the Yankees will steal a game that they're trailing late.
They'll just they'll they'll they'll feed off that Yankee Stadium
magic and they'll walk a game off that they're trailing late.

Speaker 2 (18:47):
I I love Hunter Brown. I can't.

Speaker 1 (18:49):
I just I wish I had more to offer here.
I think I just think this is a tough one.
It's gonna be a great watch. This is like gonna
be playoff vibes here. But I don't know how you
really go I don't know how you really play either
side here, So tough one for me.

Speaker 3 (19:03):
Go ahead, Brian, Yeah, I will say, other than the
former pirate that had to throw forty two pitches the
other day two days ago for the Yankees, everybody else
looks like they're going to be available for both teams.
The park factors that I look for has this the least.

(19:25):
Like normally Yankee Stadium is a really good hitters park,
but based on everything going on the starters, along with
the wind directions and everything they've got, the runs expected
to be minus eleven percent over normal for Yankee Stadium.
And that is the is the best pitching environment on

(19:45):
today's cart. So maybe if you can't play bring yourself
to play Houston. There's seven and a half out there.
Maybe we played the under because I both bullpens are
very good. I like both both pens. They might not
be pitching great now, but the talent level is there
and I think both these starters can get the job done.
So either play team totals under or play the game under.

(20:08):
But it should be a good, low scoring game here
between Houston and the Yankees. And as you mentioned, it's
very important for both these teams to get on a
nice winning streak.

Speaker 1 (20:19):
Yeah, and also Markins in the chat, listen to him
smashed out like button doesn't cost anything. All we ask
likes and subscribes on the way as you're talking YouTube channel,
and maybe a comment if you feel if you feel
like doing so, because we very much appreciate it. All right,
moving on, I wanted to Jack Frost here in the
chat says orioles A is over nine and a half,

(20:40):
kind of the other thing we were talking about backstage
before the show. I feel like the panel is going
to agree with you, and I've got an opinion on
the side here, So kick us off, Brian Leonard, he
wants to know over in this game.

Speaker 2 (20:51):
Are you seeing runs at Camden Yards tonight.

Speaker 3 (20:55):
Yeah, that's the first thing I looked at was I
thought it would be a higher score in game. We're
looking again in Sigano. Segano's basically about a one one
ten favorite total of nine and a half to the
over maybe one twenty rubbers of one twenty. But you
could probably like right now a pinnacles one twelve, So

(21:17):
jumper hunt on that. But yeah, I agree again against Ghano.
I do like the over here. And let's take a
look at these two pitchers again. I think has A
has a nice future. He hasn't put it all together yet.
He's got he's got a four point two eighty or
a three point five six expectus, so he's due for

(21:38):
some little bit better luck. One point twenty six whip.
The team is off of a shutout yesterday and that
definitely helps. They had a great start and that helps
the bullpen in here. So that's the one concern is
the bullpen is healthy, but the A's bullpen is not
very good. The Orioles bullpen is not very good. So

(21:58):
you're getting healthy guys aren't very good. To take a
look at again, his ground ball rate eighty eight percentile,
which is very good, especially in this ballpark since they
move the fences in about thirteen feet. His excession is
seventy three percentile, but his heart hit rate fourth percentile,
chase rate twenty second, barrel rate twenty seventh. He can
be hit, so he may not give up the home

(22:21):
runs with that ground ball rate, but he can be
hit hard and we'll see it coming. He is basically
a strict sinker slider guy. Eighty four percent of his
pictures are those two and when you take a look
at his miles an hour on both the sinker and slider,
they're basically a league average. So he's not going to
blow you away. I like him in the long run.

(22:44):
I think he's turning himself into a better picture, but
I don't want any part of him today. Sigano has
been up and down four point four to two ERA
five point eighty five expected. He has had the luck
that has not been had by his opposing picture one
point three Whip Brandon talked about him earlier. This season

(23:04):
is obviously his rookie season in Major league baseball, and
he got off to a pretty nice start. People didn't
know him now they're finding finding out about him, and
it's he's showing that he's a fringe major league pitcher.
Walk rate is very good eighty fifth percentile. He only
walks five point nine percent, but he only strikes out
fifteen point five so you're getting less than ten percent

(23:27):
strike out minus walk. But here's some really bad numbers
from him. Expected the ra a fourth percentle expecting batting average,
second with rate, seventh strike out rage, seventh barrel rate sixth. Yes,
he doesn't walk a lot of batters, but he does
give up a lot of hits. He has six pitches
he throws at least eleven percent, which you gotta like.

(23:49):
He's a crafty veteran. He's you know, thirty five years old,
and having a lot of pitches is good. But when
you take a look at it, every pitch he throws
other than his sweep or really and in his split
or below league average. So he's not gonna beat you
with velocity. I think is you know, even with the

(24:11):
young age, I think they'll be able to get to him. Here.
If you take a look at how these teams played
in the last fourteen days, offensively, the Athletics have a
one forty five WRC plus, which is right behind Toronto.
We just came back from Colorado and crushed them. But
Baltimore is fifth. It won twenty four. It's tied with Philadelphia.

(24:33):
So we got two teams hitting very well, and we've
got two pitchers. At least at this point, I want
to fade the line. Yes it is nine and a half.
Is actually a ten under out there right now, and
I think we're going to see more tents pop up.
So if you do like this over, grab it now
and make sure that that number ten is the winner
instead of a push.

Speaker 4 (24:55):
So Wayser Talk, not only do we do this live show,
but many of the baseball cappers put up individual game
video free picks, and if you subscribe to wager Talk,
you can get notified when people put those out. So
subscribe to our channel and also leave a comment on
the replay of this video and show wager Talk that
you support what we're doing here. It means a lot

(25:16):
to us. You might not realize it, but zero money
and very little effort can help us out a lot.
So onto this game. To me again, is kind of
an X factor here because he's only got twenty innings
on the road in twenty innings at home. He's actually
pitching better on the road right now, but the sample
size is so small I don't know if I can

(25:37):
believe it. So I'm gonna leave him out of the
cap here. But the A's are hitting like crazy, man.
They got a lot of young guys, a lot of
young guns in that lineup, and they can smash Sigano.
Not enough sample size to really judge him against these batters,
but he on the overall he ranks twenty one out

(26:00):
of thirty on a curve of thirty of all starting pictures,
not very good. He's in the bottom one third of pictures.
And the Orioles bullpen is below average. They've been below
average almost the whole season. So what do you do
when you have the number four run producing lineup in
great current form against a bottom one third picture and

(26:23):
a below average bullpen. Probably do what I did yesterday
and bet the A's team total over here. That would
be the only way I would go here. I don't
know enough about Gain to know if he's gonna get
smashed by the Orioles. The Orioles bats are a little
bit cold right now in current form, So yeah, if

(26:43):
you're gonna take an over in this, I would take
the A's. I would even take them on the money line,
but again, the starting picture is a little bit of
an X factor for me, so I'd go A's team
total over here.

Speaker 2 (26:55):
Yeah, I can't.

Speaker 1 (26:57):
You know, there's gonna probably be runs in scheme both teams.
So I was pulling up season long WRC plus against
right handed pitchers, and I'll frequent this page probably a
couple of times a week, maybe almost daily, is you
know I'm checking this, but at least a few times
a week, and all season the A's and the Orioles

(27:18):
have essentially been in the top ten of the entire
league in WRC plus versus right handed pitching.

Speaker 2 (27:24):
And then, if you want to take it.

Speaker 1 (27:25):
A step further, the Orioles collectively as a team hit
far better at home, so this should set up for
a decent So this is a decent setup for the
Orioles to score some runs because gin is a right
handed pitcher and they're at their home ballpark where they
they've hit far better than they have on the road
this season, and that that makes complete sense because Camden

(27:46):
Yards is one of those parks where, like for the
most part hitters, like just hitters in the league that
aren't on the Orioles. We'll tend to mention that park
is a very favorable hitters park, great backdrop, it's like
the green wall back there. They always talk about Quarters
Field obviously Chase Field, but Camdon Yards comes up as
a place that people tend to players tend to like

(28:07):
to hit, So that doesn't surprise me at all. So
you have the the dream setup for the Orioles because
you have at home right handed pitching. Now the A's
have a great like this is a great setup for
them as well, because they've absolutely smashed right handed pitching
this year. The A's are currently they come into play
today with a w one oh six w RC plus

(28:27):
against right handed pitching. The only teams better than that Cubs, Diamondbacks,
Blue Jays, Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Mariners, Phillies. It's pretty good
company right there. And then the A's are in that
group with a one o eight with a one oh
six w RC plus. So that's you know that that's solid.
And Sugano's a guy that I've really thought we were

(28:48):
going to see more regression out of so far than
we have. So I wanted to make a case here
for the A's, but I'm a little concerned about gain,
So maybe the over is the way to go, and
the olverady even get there on yesterday's game because the
A's shut down a Nationals team that's just not a
very good team. At this point, I don't know if
I could see the A's winning in a shutout again.

(29:08):
So chances are of Tokyo Brandon's team total gets there
with the A's. This one's probably gotten over the full
game total as well, So that's how I'll lean in
this one full game over A's Orioles. Okay, all right,
Steve Duke says, I like how Biby's fell. Oh I
thought he wanted to talk about Tanner Vibe and he
probably does. And it spelled checks as Bible. That's what

(29:31):
he's saying, and Deep Fry Tie also put bible in.
But we know he means Tanner Viby. We know he
means Brian Leonard's Cleveland Guardians, who made me eat my
words this week. Thankfully I didn't eat any money because
I didn't bet any game of their series. But how
about the Guardians going into City Field and smacking around
the Mets, Brian Leonard, are the Guardians in this thing now?

(29:53):
And how are you seeing this weekend playing out?

Speaker 2 (29:56):
Also? How do you see the matchup tonight?

Speaker 3 (29:58):
I have lost more on my hometown Cleveland Guardias in
the last month then I have lost on any other team.
And then in that series, I kept betting Cleveland's scoring under.
They're playing in a Great Pictures part against the best
Pictures that they have faced since the All Star Break,

(30:19):
and I lost every single one of them. If you
remember back when they played Houston. I've got my ass
kicked there. So i will give you the numbers. I'm
not going to give you my opinion because obviously right
now I'm completely lost on the way these this Cleveland
team is playing Kenn excuse me. Biby's going against Avali.

(30:39):
Bibby's about a one thirty one, thirty eight, forty favorite
totals eight to the under or eight and a half
to the under or eight even money. Biby's been so
up and down. And the problem you have and with
Cleveland Pictures overall, is I don't like the job that

(31:00):
the managers doing. He did a really nice job last year.
He's keeping his starters in too long. He's done it
with a couple of these young guys earlier in the
week when he had the six or the five nothing
lead in the game I had the other day that
I had Cleveland under I understand why he kept one
of the young guys in, but the guy gave up

(31:20):
like three runs the next inning when he got a five,
six run lead. You're gonna let the guy pitch a
little longer. But he keeps letting these starters go through
the third time through the order, and it works. It's
been working out for Williams. Williams is playing great right now,
but Bibby gets to that third trip through the order
and he's getting hit. So if you do like Bibby,

(31:43):
I see people out there that use like the three innings.
Some places let you play the first three innings. I've
never played it. That would be a way that I
would go if I wanted to play Cleveland. But they
are playing Sabali and he's played with Cleveland. Cleveland knows
what he's got, so I think they should be able
to have some success against them. And the White Sox
really aren't hitting well right now. We talked about this

(32:04):
last few days where the White Sox seemed to be
one of those little slumps, and they've been great since
the All Star break, but they're struggling a little bit now.
But I just can't trust this Cleveland team. I just
don't think they're that good. We'll see. I will not
be involved in this game.

Speaker 4 (32:24):
Yeah. In the chat, there's a grammar debate here. I
don't disagree. Somebody says that's a double negative. It is
not a double negative. Disagree is not a negative, although
the sentiment is negative, Grammatically speaking, it is not a
negative word. So I don't disagree is grammatically correct. I
was a Look, I'm a language major, so I know

(32:49):
these things. But anyways, let's get on to baseball. Man,
the first thing I did was compare how these pictures
do against the other batters. And Savallee I've never been
a huge fan of his, but man, he dominates these
Cleveland batters. He dominates them. How bad? Uh? One thirty
eight average against in a four to twenty two OPS against.

(33:10):
That's domination. Tanner Biby has a two ninety four average
against in a seven ninety three OPS against the White Sox.
So how do we make money on this information? Taking
a look at I have. I have the White Sox
hitting number twelve in current form out of thirty teams,

(33:30):
and I got Cleveland hitting fifteen, so slight advantage to
the White Sox. Cleveland's bullpen has a big advantage here,
So how would I approach this? Well, I think the
White Sox first five innings would be the best way
to go here because Cleveland has a bit of a
bullpen advantage. Although the White Sox bullpen is not terrible.

(33:50):
I got them ranked twelve in current form out of
thirty teams, so maybe the full game for White Sox.
But either way, UH find some way to play Savala
today because I don't think he's going to give up
a lot of runs. So whether you play his earned
runs under or you play the Cleveland team total under
one of those, I think we'll get through today because

(34:13):
he's been really good against these batters.

Speaker 3 (34:16):
I just wanted to ask you how far along is that,
Savali because he pitched for Cleveland for a pretty good
amount of time, where those before he pitched for Cleveland.

Speaker 2 (34:27):
Or career entire career well, so.

Speaker 3 (34:32):
You can't break it down to what he has done
in the last two three years.

Speaker 4 (34:36):
Okay, I cannot, right, Yeah, but he's got he's got
fifty eight at bats against So whether those were this year,
last year, or the year before, I have not separated that.

Speaker 1 (34:50):
So, Tokyo Rand, I agree with your grammar thing, and
I don't disagree.

Speaker 2 (34:57):
It's perfectly acceptable grammar.

Speaker 1 (34:59):
I was once upon a time in English major at
Siana College, and it's basically a way to just like
toe the line a little bit.

Speaker 2 (35:06):
You're like, yeah, I see what you're the point you're making.

Speaker 1 (35:09):
But whereas I agree is like I'm I'm strongly it's
it's just a much stronger way to say it. So
perfectly fine, and that's kind of you know, I agree
with your language assessment.

Speaker 2 (35:23):
I don't disagree with you liking the White Sox, but.

Speaker 1 (35:25):
I'm I guess like we manifested that sweep a little
bit for the Mariners. I feel like we talked about
it earlier this week, and you know, I kept looking
for the spot to play the White Sox in that series,
and it just I can't. And I've been the biggest
White Sox supporter all year on this show, White Sox
one and a half, White Sox one and a half,
always looking for spots to play it, and I can't

(35:47):
help but think that this could be a a the
run where the right the White Sox lose six seven,
eight games in a row. Like I don't know, it's
just like these young teams. We've seen it happen to
the A's, We're seeing it with the now Nationals. The
White Sox came out of the break so hot, playing
such good ball, and hey, they battled yesterday, they got

(36:07):
to extra innings, they fall short. Now they got to
come from Seattle to Cleveland. That's never easy to do.
And I'm sorry Seat, I'm sorry Seattle to Chicago, Seattle
to back home.

Speaker 2 (36:20):
It's never easy to do.

Speaker 1 (36:21):
And you know, it's just like one of those things
where I feel like I'm gonna need to see them win.

Speaker 2 (36:27):
Now.

Speaker 1 (36:27):
The market likes this because this When I jotted this
down pre show, I had White Sox plus one and
a half was like minus one ten, minus one fifteen.
This is all the way up to minus one pin forty.
Is that what odds Logic has Brian Leonard, Let's plug
Odds Logic real quick, great. I feel like that's the
best odds software for your money out there. Some of

(36:47):
them are very expensive odds logic is fantastic for the
price point, and it's it's something that we're going to
continue to plug on this show.

Speaker 2 (36:55):
What are we seeing White Sox plus one and a
half at now?

Speaker 1 (36:58):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (36:59):
Actually, Johnny I talked about yesterday. They made some updates,
so it's even better than it was before. H They're
basically I want forty favorite in that range the eight
and a half.

Speaker 1 (37:11):
I yes, so like that's the thing plus one and
a half And it's like so that I'm completely out
on that because there's no way I'm going to play
pay a dollar forty for that. On the flip side,
I don't really I'm with Brian like I haven't. Thankfully,
I've stayed out of a lot of these Guardians games
because if I've been involved, I would if I'd be

(37:32):
burning money left and right because they are a team
I very much want to bet against.

Speaker 2 (37:37):
I don't think that this team is going to hang
around in the playoff mix.

Speaker 1 (37:40):
I'm it's hard to fathom what they just did at
City Field. But again, I just don't know that this
is the spot to play against Cleveland. I'm not so
Vali's not really the guy I want to back in
this rotation either, even though he's had a little bit
of a resurgence since coming over from Milwaukee. So you know,
Roque Energy says White Sox are live.

Speaker 2 (38:03):
Can't. I can't say they're not.

Speaker 1 (38:06):
But I want to see, like, I need to see
him win a game because this my gut tells me
that they could they If they don't win one, this
could end up being a seven or eight game losing streak,
and I don't want to be on them while they're
doing that.

Speaker 3 (38:18):
Go ahead, Brian, Yeah, I just wanted to point out
that Cleveland was probably back in Chicago before Chicago was.
They had the extra ended game coming from Seattle, whereas
Cleveland had the day off, so they had to use
White Sox had to use a lot of their pretty
good relievers yesterday. That is a concern when you're playing that. Yeah,

(38:38):
I'm completely lost on this game. I've lost all my
faith and picking a Cleveland game right now until I
can get it back together. I pack my my announces
with the grain of salt.

Speaker 1 (38:49):
Brian, while you have odds logic up, do me a favor.
What is the total in that A's Orioles game right now?

Speaker 2 (38:57):
Uh?

Speaker 3 (38:57):
You can still get over nine and a half at
minus one twenty five or over ten. It like minus
one ten, So.

Speaker 2 (39:08):
All right for the parlay, I'm gonna go over one.

Speaker 1 (39:12):
I'm gonna go over nine and a half minus one
twenty five for the parlay. If you cannot get that
at your book, over ten is fine, but we'll do
minus nine and a half.

Speaker 2 (39:21):
Almost anyone that's betting.

Speaker 1 (39:22):
On legals should be able to parlay a nine and
a half there somehow, So that's what we're gonna call it.
I'm gonna add my parlay leg now. I did see
it start to move a little bit. I just thought
all of our breakdowns made so much sense, and I
need to switch it up. I can't have like the
Marlins choking leads away and stuff.

Speaker 2 (39:39):
So I'm going with a total today.

Speaker 1 (39:41):
A's orioles over nine and a half will be my
leg in the parlay, and then TV will will lock
one in over the next twenty minutes. We still have
twenty minutes to get some games in and we'll figure
out what his leg is as well. Yeah, Markinson's like Adam,
fix the focus on your camera.

Speaker 2 (39:58):
It is.

Speaker 1 (39:58):
Let me see here. Let gonna try the white paper trick.
Hold on, let's see if this works.

Speaker 2 (40:04):
Are we back? Did it work? So?

Speaker 1 (40:07):
Apparently, if if you hold a white piece of paper
over the lens, it's supposed to refocus it. If I refresh,
it's gonna mess everything up. So I'd rather I'd rather
talk about baseball blurry for the next twenty minutes than
cost us two minutes of valuable time fixing my camera.
All right, well, I've seen this one throw them back

(40:27):
and forth.

Speaker 2 (40:28):
He says.

Speaker 1 (40:29):
If the Diamondbacks can't be the Rockies, I'm not backing
them ever. Again, that is a strong statement right there,
especially today, Brian Leonard, because this doesn't look like the
worst spot in the world for the Rockies. In my opinion,
they kind of feel like a live dog. And maybe, yep,
that that plus one and a half, you could consider
them rocky since the All Star break, have had more energy,

(40:50):
they've played better ball.

Speaker 2 (40:51):
Now you're gonna have to throw that j series out.
But let's be honest.

Speaker 1 (40:55):
The Blue Jays are are big time contender, one of
the best teams in the league. The Diamondbacks aren't not
that right now, do you see the Rockies having a
chance tonight?

Speaker 3 (41:03):
Well, first of all, I disagree with the thought process.
When team is so ugly you don't want to play them,
it's usually the best time to play them, right because
nobody else wants to bat them, and they're betting on
the other side, and you're getting more value for the
for the buck. That said, yeah, Arizona struggled and they've

(41:24):
got Zach Gallon on the mound, and there's no way,
as much as I hate the Road Rockies the Rocky
Road situation here for Colorado, I am not laying two
thirty five up to two fifty on the Arizona Diamondbacks
for that Gallon. It could end up being what we
talked kind of talked about with Pittsburgh yesterday, laying the

(41:46):
high number with the Pirates and you know they're maybe
they come out and throw a shut out, but I
don't try. I didn't trust the Pirates batch yesterday. They
scored seven runs, so I ended up pushing it. But
I don't want any party. Gall On the way he's
pitching right now about a two forty favorite and total
of nine is here. The nine is actually something I

(42:09):
have a slight interest in. Austin gomer On the on
the mound. He comes in with a six point one
eight ERA five point two to one expected one point
six to zero whip. He does some things pretty well.
His walk grade doesn't not walk a lot of Better's
five point five percent, which is the ninetieth percentile. This

(42:30):
is a second year in a row he's been at
five point five percent. But he only strikes out this
year thirteen point four percent. You've got a seven point
eight strikeout minus walk grade. Show that's not good. You
go over his stackcast page in the ten percent Tyler
or less expected ERA fastball velocity Chase Ray fifth percentage,

(42:50):
strikeout percentage, barrel rate. Granted, he does pitch half of
his games in Colorado, so you have to take that
into account. But he's just not been a good pitcher
and he probably would not make the starting rotation on
any other major league staff. Zach Gallon five point four
eight ERA four point nine to one expected one point

(43:13):
three to six whip. Normally you see a lot of
red on his savant page. None He's got zero red.
Everything is either league average or worse. His exit velocity
ninth percentile, barrel rate fourteenth hard hit fourteenth, expected DRA seventeenth.

(43:33):
I know he did have a couple of decent starts.
But you know, a while back on he started the
month of July seven innings, one and run against the Giants,
a team that has not hit well for a month.
They ain't played the Padres, six shoutout innings. But then
he got bombed three straight starts against the Angels, these

(43:55):
Diamondbacks and the Pirates, three teams that have not been
hitting very well. And then last time out he went
six and he's give up two runs to a good
hitting and hot athletics team. Is he back? No, I
don't believe so. So I think both teams will have
some offensive success here. I like the over in this one.

Speaker 4 (44:15):
Guys, go check out our pages. I have an MLB
play up right now and a free playloaded, and I'm
sure my colleagues here will also today if they haven't already,
take the five minutes to go check our pages out
and leave a comment on the replay of this. It
means a lot to us, and it shows wager Talk
you like and support our show, and it doesn't cost

(44:36):
you anything. So regarding this game, the first thing that
jumps out to me is both of these pitchers absolutely
get mauled by the other team's batters how bad. Gallen
has a three ZHO seven average against and a one
thousand ops against. Granted, some of those numbers might be
from Colorado's home field, but still he struggles against these Backs.

(45:00):
There's no doubt about that. Austin Gomber is just a
terrible picture, period, but against these Diamondbacks he's even really terrible.
He's got a two ninety six average against an eight
ninety nine ops so taking a look at that, add
to the fact that we have two of the worst
bullpens in Major League Baseball here, I don't care who's

(45:21):
in the lineup. I expect this to go over nine
and as a matter of fact, that's going to be
my parlay piece is going to be over nine in
this game. I think this goes over nine easily. I mean,
I don't like the fact that it's being played in
Arizona because it generally is a pitcher's park, But these
bullpens are so bad, and neither one of these pictures

(45:42):
really goes that deep in the game. I think we're
going to get at least eight innings of bullpens in
this combined, so I like I think both lineups can
can score some runs. And surprisingly Colorado in current form
is ranked eight, but that's probably because they were playing
in Colorado, so you got to take that into consideration. Nevertheless,

(46:03):
I think a five to four game will get you
a push. In a six to five game, we'll get
you a win. So I think that's what we're looking
at here.

Speaker 2 (46:12):
Brian, go ahead, tell me Chase Field is not a pitcher's.

Speaker 3 (46:14):
Park, and yeah, yeah, that kind of stook me. Actually
today Chase Field is plus eight percent better than the
league average. Yeah, this is a good headers park. I
don't agree. Your stats might show something. Maybe you can
prove me wrong, but there it's all always known, has
been a good hitters park.

Speaker 4 (46:33):
Maybe it's just even better then.

Speaker 3 (46:35):
Maybe that maybe in Arizona, Pittuers is just so bad
that makes a good hitters part.

Speaker 1 (46:39):
This year they did well, No, I mean they definitely
watered it down. If you remember they didn't they start
doing something to the baseballs in Arizona.

Speaker 3 (46:48):
Two, they're doing it everywhere now they all yeah.

Speaker 2 (46:52):
Yeah, so so.

Speaker 1 (46:54):
But but that's another one, Tokyo Brandon that always comes
up if you listen to big league hitters, just like
like every once in a while, like where's your favorite
what's your favorite ballpark to hit in? Is a question
that it's like a common reporter question to just break
the ice with a with a hitter. Chasefield is always
spoken about as like a hitter's dream because they have

(47:16):
that huge wall in center field. It's green, there's nothing
out there. It's like a perfect backdrop to hit again.

Speaker 4 (47:23):
So yeah, even professional cappers can learn something by watching this.
So I'll stand corrected and thank you for teaching me that.

Speaker 3 (47:31):
Guys, Yeah, we're all here to learn. We're all here
to help each other.

Speaker 4 (47:35):
Part of part of the capper is not having things
fixed in your head and being flexible and being able
to adjust along. So I'll adjust that train of thought
that I had. But for some reason in my head,
I've always thought of Arizona as a picture's park. So
I don't know why. Honestly, when you just asked me
right now and challenge me, I'm like, you know what,

(47:56):
I don't know why. I just have that impression. So
good here.

Speaker 1 (48:01):
Well, I don't think you're wrong to light the over certainly,
you know, I think that there could be runs here.
I will I'm gonna stick up for our guy. Austin
Gomber for a minute, though, because this is a guy
he just he shouldn't be in Colorado. He just doesn't
get any ground balls. He's a he's a flyball pitcher,
and he pitches at corse Field, which is, as we know,

(48:22):
very difficult on flyball pitchers. Gomber on the road, ere's
four nine to one. The batting average against is almost
one hundred points low. I actually think there's some stuff
to like about him. He throws a lot of strikes,
He's able to generate some soft contact. Now, is he like,
you know, someone I'm putting in my starting five on

(48:44):
most other teams. Probably not, But there's there's far worse
getting run out in the big leagues right now. And
one of those guys might actually be Zach Gallen at
current time. Zach Gallen in twenty twenty five. Now, Zach
Gallen we know, over the course of his career, has
some very very good years, but Zachdallen right now not
very good. And again, so I think Gomber gets a

(49:07):
little bit of a bad rap because he has bad numbers,
but a lot of those are our cores field generated
because he's trying to get he's at his best getting
fly balls, and as we know, the ball flies out
of that yard.

Speaker 2 (49:20):
So I really do like the Rockies here.

Speaker 1 (49:22):
I don't think these two teams at right like as
they stand right now, with the rosters they have right now,
I don't think these two teams are that different. Obviously
there's some better individuals on the Diamondbacks, but when you
take off Naylor swore as you know, the pieces that
they sort of got rid of, and you look at
the teams on the field, this matchup's a lot more

(49:42):
even than I think the books are are suggesting with
this number. So Rockies plus one and a half, with
getting the road team even money plus one and a
half makes a lot of sense.

Speaker 3 (49:52):
Go ahead, Brian, Yeah, I just want to point out
with Colorado, yes, the ball flies there, it's the altitude.
But the the reason why there's so many runs are
scored in Colorado is because it's a massive outfield, and
so there's a lot more singles, a lot more doubles,
and a lot more triples there. Now, they do, they

(50:12):
do give up the home runs, no doubt about it.
But if you're playing in Colorado, you're going to increase
your batty average. You're going to there's usually a lot
of walks because people can't they just don't get they're
not able to throw the breaking pitches because of that,
so that there's a lot more people on base and
that's why there's so many runs scored in Colorado.

Speaker 4 (50:34):
Let me make a point. One thing I liked about
this game that I forgot to mention is marte Is
ten for twenty six against Gomber and who else We
got Corbyn Carrol six of thirteen, So they both have
ops's over twelve hundred. So maybe one of those guys
to get a hit, run RBI over one and a

(50:55):
half might be a good play as well.

Speaker 2 (50:58):
Certainly only good.

Speaker 4 (51:00):
Hitters on the Diamondbacks anymore since they lost Naylor and Suarez.

Speaker 1 (51:04):
Yeah, I mean you're absolutely right there. There definitely could
be some fireworks in this game. I think these I
think these guys played like a fourteen to eleven game
earlier this year. Like there's if you look at back
at past d Backs Rockies matchups this season, I bet
a lot of them got to nine and if not
more than that, Like there should be a high scoring
game when you when you look at the two teams,

(51:26):
two pitchers and what's probably coming out of the bull
bet for both teams. So I like that TV Okay,
Colin Gregory, we got yeah, you're you're probably right about this.
And you know, we didn't lead off the show with
it because we wanted to get that Marlins game out.
I kind of this would have been my sort of
feature game. So let's make sure we touch it in
the final nine minutes of the show. Blue Jays Dodgers

(51:47):
game between old old Vets Game of the Day World
Series preview. I'm not that could get It's definitely possible
because a lot of people, you know, the Dodgers arguably
should be there, and a lot of people, include myself.
I think the Blue Jays are are arguably the best
team in the American League, if not the best. So,
Brian Leonard, is this a World series preview? We got

(52:08):
two big name veterans that actually haven't faced off I
think since like very very early in their career, which
is interesting.

Speaker 2 (52:16):
Here, sure's are Kershaw? So how are you seeing the
game of the day Blue Jays Dodgers.

Speaker 3 (52:22):
Yeah. I looked at the same thing, and we're looking
at Sureser against Kershaw obviously Lefty, we're looking at Kershaw
about one forty favorite nine to the under. Yeah, Toronto's
You've got it been Toronto's live here. They're hitting really well.

(52:43):
Sureser has got a lot of red on his stat
cast page four point three to nine ERA three point
sixty six expected, so he's been a little bit unlucky
one whip. I will say his ground ball ray is
in the first percentile. And unlike Colorado that a lot

(53:04):
of people think it doesn't have a lot of home
run a lot of a lot of home runs, this
stadium does is a good home run park, so he
may give up some long balls. So this Dodgers team
that has a lot of power and now they got
their third basement back and with glasses. He's a much
better hitter as we've spoken about in the past. But
Surezer's barrel rate and the twelfth percentile, and I talked

(53:25):
about the ground ball rate, but he's average Exavelosi eighty
ninth percentile, walk rate ninety fourth, our hit rate eighty six,
so he only walks four point nine percent of the
batter's face that is good. And his strikeout rate twenty
seven point zero, which gives him a twenty two point
one strikeout min's walk ratio awesome. How many times do

(53:48):
you catch a team hitting what Toronto is and a
pitch starting pitcher has got a twenty two point one
strikeout minus walk ratio and you get him as an underdog.
I think Toronto has a lot of value here. Curve
show three point two nine, ERA three point ninety six
expected one point twenty five, whip barrel rate ninety second percentile,
walk rate seventy fifth, ground bowl rate seventy ninth. But

(54:12):
his fastball ve last season the second percentile. His four
seam he throws eighty nine miles an hour. That's four
miles an hour worse than a normal lefty. If deck
to look at his curve seventy two point three seven
miles worse than a normal lefty. And the reason why
I mentioned the curve ball is when you're that far off, uh,

(54:35):
normally we're looking at about a fourteen percent difference between
for Samer fourteen mile per hour difference, excuse me, in
a curve. His is seventeen percent differential. And they know
the curve. He throws a curve eighteen percent of the time.
That's what he's known for. He's gonna make the Hall
of Fame based on his based on his curve, He's
gone to more of a slider this year, which is

(54:58):
very good. But when you I have that much of
a differential, you can easily tell when the curve ball
is coming, and so he can make that adjustment. And
I think that's something we need to worry about, because,
like I said, is fastball velocity second percentile, Chase Ray eighteenth,
strikeout percent five fifth, hard hit seventeenth. He's really surpassed

(55:20):
what anything that I thought he was going to do
this year. Our hats off to him. I've loved the guy,
and especially because he has somehow struggled in the playoffs.
A lot of people call him a choker. Playoffs are
small sample sizes. The guys are one of the best
pictures of the generation. First ballot Hall of Famer. I
love the guy, not the same picture as he was before.

(55:42):
I like the underdog here. I think Toronto has got
a lot of value here and you can get them.
I'm seeing upwards are one thirty except places, but there's
others that are down to one fifteen. But I think
the Toronto is a nice underdog today.

Speaker 4 (55:57):
So this matchup to me, looks like two nineteen seventy
nine fiberglass corvettes racing against each other. Two cars that
used to be really shiny in pristine, But which one's
gonna break down first? Which one's gonna vomit first? They're
both really talented, like Brian said, and much respect for

(56:18):
both of them, but they're neither one is what they
used to be. I agree with him. Of all the
matchups today, this one I have the closest, the closest
matched like the least points apart. But the one advantage
that Toronto really has in this is the batting. I've
got them ranked number one in all of Major League Baseball. Now, granted,
they just scored what thirty eight runs in three games

(56:41):
against Colorado in the Rocky Mountains, so that's obviously skewing
my numbers, but even before that Colorado series, they were
ranked top five lineup. They were mashing the ball even
before they went to Colorado and the Dodgers bullpen is
very shaky, very unreliable, but so is Toronto. So I mean,

(57:01):
in current form, not all season, but I have both
of them ranked seventeen in bullpen. Man Toronto, they're just
mashing the ball. They look like an unstoppable juggernaut. I
think they're gonna crush Kershaw. But I don't really know
what to expect from sures Er either, So this one's
a little bit of an X factor for me. But

(57:22):
I certainly if if I had to bet this game,
i'd bet Toronto.

Speaker 1 (57:29):
Yeah, so I just pulled out WRC plus against left
handed pitching. The Yankees lead the league in that I
wouldn't have maybe got that off the top of my head.

Speaker 2 (57:37):
You know who's tied for second.

Speaker 1 (57:38):
It's these two teams, the Blue Jays and the Dodgers,
And only one is facing a lefty tonight, and that's
the Blue Jays. And when I look at these two pitchers,
I echo the sentiments that you guys have brought up.

Speaker 2 (57:51):
We don't need to rehash that, So I'm just gonna
go to the eye test.

Speaker 1 (57:55):
And when I watched these two throw, and you know both,
Kershaw's been really good, like better than I could have imagined.
But when I watch these two guys pitch right now,
I still think Surezers got the nastier stuff, Like his
stuff is still just I think it's still is just
nastier than what Kershaw's got.

Speaker 2 (58:14):
At this point.

Speaker 1 (58:15):
And so if you've got to line up in the
Blue Jays that we've sung their praises left and right,
great at bats one through nine, I mean right down
from you know you're getting Vlad, you can throw like
you know, whoever's at the top of the other where
it's Luke's Bashett and then you'll you can have Ernie
Clement down in the eight hole and it's like everyone's

(58:36):
given a professional at bat. Every out is a tough out,
does not matter who they put in that lineup. At
this point one through nine, they're having tough at bats.
I think tough at bats against kersh are gonna produce
something here, whereas now the Dodgers, and I wanted to
pull up on Nabil's comment he says, these are the
games they wake up for.

Speaker 2 (58:54):
Yeah, that's a good point. I mean it is a
big game.

Speaker 1 (58:57):
It's at home, and I do think you're gonna see
the Dodgers, like, especially in these spots as that as
August and September go on, I do think you're gonna
see that, like big effort from the Dodgers start to
really show up, maybe the effort we haven't fully seen
from them this year, and so there is some merit
to that point.

Speaker 2 (59:15):
But I just think like, when you handicap this game, you.

Speaker 1 (59:17):
Look at where the market has this with the Blue
Jays as an underdog, and a lot of the chat
is saying, like, what's there to even think about the
Blue Jays is an underdog here? I think at the
price you have to like the Blue Jays. You look
at their numbers against left handed pitching, and if you
just watch these two guys pitch, who looks more hittable
at this point?

Speaker 2 (59:36):
Forget the numbers.

Speaker 1 (59:37):
When you watch these guys pitch, who has the more
hittable stuff at this point?

Speaker 2 (59:41):
I really feel like it's kershaw.

Speaker 1 (59:42):
And when you're splitting hairs with how good these teams
are and how good these lineups are, I think the
plus one twenty five is all you need to know there.
I feel like you have to play that value with
the Blue Jays or stay out of it. That's how
I see this one. All right, it's ten am, which
means tokyo brain. Oh no, he locked it in already.
Forgot about that? Wow we were that was like the

(01:00:04):
best pace we had today. Brian kicked the show off
middle of the show.

Speaker 2 (01:00:07):
I gave mine out.

Speaker 1 (01:00:08):
I forgot TV fired as parlagout in that Rockies Diamondbacks game.
So while I add this up, I'm gonna let TV
promote whatever's going on on the site right now.

Speaker 4 (01:00:19):
So we have a lot of promotions going on on
the site. The best thing to do is go to
each of our individual pages. Go to wager talk dot com.
If you go to experts or even on the front page,
we're gonna be there if we have a playoff. I
already have an MLB play up right now. I'm running
pretty hot, number one in profit last three days and

(01:00:40):
last seven days, and number one in twenty twenty five,
so things are going well. I do have an MLB
play out, Adam and I do Asian Baseball, and wager
Talk allows us to sell those for half price. So
any day of the week, if we have a KBO
or a Japanese Baseball out, it's gonna be half price
as well. So, Brian, you don't don't have anything out yet,

(01:01:01):
but I'm sure you will today, right there's lots of
juicy matchups.

Speaker 3 (01:01:04):
Yeah, everything today is on the evening cards, so we
got plenty of time to take a look at it.
So who was playing Who's not playing? And I would
like to thank you pointing the ancient time of nineteen
seventy nine, because that was the year I graduated high school.

Speaker 4 (01:01:20):
My mom had a yellow Corvette and when I was
growing up, when I was sixteen, in nineteen eighty six,
she let me drive it to prom I did not
wreck it.

Speaker 3 (01:01:30):
I had a vet in nineteen seventy nine, two a
Shiven and it was yellow.

Speaker 4 (01:01:39):
In the seventies, Adam wasn't even alive.

Speaker 1 (01:01:43):
I know, and you know what it's like. I wasn't
alive yet I was born. So someone in the comments
the other day was like, he doesn't even look thirty.

Speaker 2 (01:01:49):
I'm actually going to be forty in July. A lot
of people don't realize. I mean, I was born in nine.
I missed the seventies.

Speaker 1 (01:01:56):
But I just I just finished watching that five five
hour Billy Joel documentary on HBO, which was fantastically Even
if you weren't a fan of Billy Joe's music, it's
a great watch. It's it's on HBO. It's like brand new,
two parts. It's about five hours long.

Speaker 4 (01:02:12):
And I don't think I don't think there's anyone who
doesn't like Billy Joel.

Speaker 2 (01:02:17):
I know, right, Like that's like how could you not?

Speaker 1 (01:02:20):
And but there's so much good footage from that time period,
like the seventies, and like the whole time I'm watching,
I'm just thinking, like how cool it would have been
to be alive like during that time. And obviously you
know I missed missed that, But I think if I mean,
I'm a big nineties guy, I always say, like, put
me back in the nineties, like that would be like spend,

(01:02:41):
spend my whole life.

Speaker 4 (01:02:42):
But seventies you have to love Seinfeld, right, Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:02:47):
I mean I I caught on a Seinfeld later in
life TV. I didn't.

Speaker 1 (01:02:50):
I was like too young to like where it was
like ending when I was like a kid, like a
younger kid. So I really didn't watch Seinfeld until I
was an adult, and I feel like I had a
better appreciation for it because I just there's so much
stuff that even I remember, like watching the last season.

Speaker 2 (01:03:06):
As like it's master and I just there was so
much stuff.

Speaker 1 (01:03:09):
That went over my head that I now understand rewatching
it as an adult. So even though I wasn't like
obsessed with the show, I've watched my way through it.
And I understand why people were such big fans of
the show. All right, one more time for the parlay
this lance five to one? How about that? Just to
just right on the money five to one. Obviously, shopping

(01:03:30):
around it's going to vary book to book, but we
have Brian Leonard Marlin's first five money line and then
we have two totals. I'm on A's Orioles over nine
and a half and Tokyo Brandon's going Rockies d Backs
over nine. So we need Brian to get it done
with the Marlins first five, and then we need a
boatload of runs and Rockies Diamondbacks for TV and A's

(01:03:52):
Orioles for myself. Thank you guys all for tuning in.
We very much appreciate it. If you have them in it,
give us a like and subscribe on the Wager two
YouTube channel. Drop a comment. We read them all, we
try to respond to them all. I hope everyone has
a great weekend. We'll see you guys back here nine
am Monday morning for more total Bases