September 30, 2025 • 61 mins
Looking for the best MLB Playoffs picks, predictions, and betting tips for Tuesday, September 30, 2025? Tune in to Total Bases with expert handicappers Adam Trigger, Bryan Leonard and Tokyo Brandon as they break down today’s MLB matchups with sharp insights and actionable advice.
00:00 Introduction
01:14 Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians
20:43 San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs
34:53 Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
46:42 Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers
58:13 Parlay of the Day
00:00 Introduction
01:14 Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians
20:43 San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs
34:53 Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
46:42 Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers
58:13 Parlay of the Day
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Starting the game. Starting the broadcast, guys.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
All right, guys, welcome in. It is time for Total
Basis Playoff Edition. The Major League Baseball Playoffs start today.
Missed you guys yesterday. Didn't really know what to do
with myself at nine am without a show. But we're
back for the rest of the week. So we've got
playoff games the next three days, and then on Friday
for Friday show, we'll talk about Saturday's games because by
(00:27):
Thursday night we'll know all of the matchups for Saturday's games.
So we're with you the rest of the week. Before
we get in. We got four games. We're gonna cover
all four of them before we get into the four
games as we sort of let people file in. I
just want to talk about the playoffs in general because
I used to I used to be the guy that
was like, well, you're never gonna make any money betting
(00:47):
the Major League Baseball playoffs. It's there's not a ton
of value and it's a lot tougher to do. However,
I went back and looked all three of us made
money in the playoffs last year, so we all had
plus units. I believe the three of us combined for
forty sixty six units. And I actually went back and
(01:08):
looked at my results the last couple of years in
the playoffs, and I actually so, I've made a couple
of I've updated my take on this, and I want
to see if you guys agree, disagree, or have anything
to throw in there. I think the new format has
so two things. One, I think the new format has
created more betting opportunities for an obvious reason, there's more
(01:29):
more teams, more games, and if you give us more
days where there's four games, there's it's likely we're going
to be able to find one winner. The other thing
is baseball popularity has dipped so much during the regular season,
but the playoffs are as popular as ever, and I
think that that kind of speaks to the new format
where suddenly you get this influx a very uninformed money
(01:53):
that was not there all year. And so I almost
think I'll go to you, Brian Leonard, it is the
play I've almost think the playoffs are more betible than
they've ever been, and I'm excited for the next month.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
Yeah, I feel that way. In the professional professional playoffs.
One of the reasons I like it is you don't
have to worry about motivation, because all teams are motivated
once they get to the playoffs. We talked about this
all year long with certain teams, you know, Detroit obviously,
the Dodgers, the Padres, so we know what we're going
(02:25):
to get. And the playoffs, if you've noticed, the lines
are the totals are lower, and that's because every game
is treated obviously like a playoff game, and so you're
going to get your best relievers out there on a
regular basis as opposed to your garbage guys, and you're
using your top three starters. So I love the playoffs.
(02:48):
I love the hockey playoffs, NBA playoffs. It's the easiest
time to win in the NBA is in the NBA
playoffs because you know who's coming up and how good
the teams are, and you know that's that's why they
made us so much harder to win first quarter, in
first half in the NBA playoffs. So I got to
do is take the team and who lost the first game
and that come back and just continue to roll that over.
(03:10):
So yeah, I'm excited about the playoffs. And as you mentioned,
Ralph Michaels was nice enough to send that to us
in the back end today and I had just place
down here in Florida, and I see how the back
end gets to work a little bit while I'm down here.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
Five dollars Tuesday. Today, guys, I have a five dollars
play up. And also we mentioned this on the last show,
but since football started wayger Talk is allowing us to
sell our MLB plays for nine dollars anything except for
a five percent play. So stay tuned. We're all going
to have probably a free play up today, and we
(03:46):
all should have a play up for five dollars, whether
it's baseball or another sport. My baseball MLB five dollars
play has been up since yesterday, so go grab it
and grab these guys plays as well. Regarding the playoffs, yes,
one thing that's good about the playoffs is, like Webbs
was mentioned, the teams are not really resting people. There's
(04:12):
no tomorrow now. During the regular season, you have months
and months ahead, you worry about guys' schedule schedules, you
worry about guys fatiguing. But in the playoffs it's it's
it's balls to the wall. There's no fatigue, there's no nothing.
The pitchers do tend to come out earlier in the
playoff games because coaches managers want to perhaps use them
(04:36):
two times in a series, so they're they're generally not
going to stress their starters out through seven innings in
a playoff game. So that's one thing to keep in
mind if you're betting strikeouts or outs props. Most outs
props I lost two years ago. I learned the hard way.
A lot of my outs props lost because pitchers were
(04:57):
coming out before the fifth inning, and it was because
managers wanted to use them in Game four. Now, in
the wild Card we only have three games, so that's
really not relevant. But when it goes to five to
seven game series, things like that, a manager might want
to use his picture three times in the seven game series,
so he will maybe take a picture out early. So
(05:20):
something to keep in mind.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
I disagree with that somewhat, but I do think you're
right about guys coming out early. I think managers just
don't want want the other team seeing a guy for
a third time through. And of course you have the
famous example of Kevin Cash taking Blake Stell out and
he's just like, what, like, excuse me. But I do
think that there's you're gonna and this is where it.
(05:43):
We'll talk about this a lot over the next week
and two. You really have to handicap the manager in
the playoffs more than you than you ever do the
rest of the season, very much. I think getting inside
the manager's head and knowing how they might manage something.
We'll tell you kind of what you you know, you
if you want to be on that team if if not,
But you're right TV some of them and listen, some
(06:06):
of them do it to their detriment all of a sudden.
It's like I gotta I gotta outthink the room because
it's the playoffs and sometimes that's just not necessary. That's
the type of stuff we're going to talk this show. Yeah,
I mean, yeah, you'll.
Speaker 3 (06:19):
Have really decisions in the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
David, You'll have your chance on this show to talk
about him. Uh. Listen, guys in the comments, keep the
comments coming. We're gonna go right down the row. So
the the OCD folks in the crowd are going to
be through because we're going right in order morning tonight,
starting with Tiger's Guardians, going right to the night. So
all the for the for the guys in the chat
that every day are like wish you didn't bounce around
(06:43):
so much. Guess what, We're not doing it in the
playoffs right in order, so don't worry about that. But
I still want to hear what you guys have to say,
so keep firing off in the comments. And I think
wager Talk management might have messed up with the nine
dollars thing, because, as I said, the baseball playoffs are
the most popular game games of the year. But hey,
I guess we're selling them for nine bucks, so that
(07:04):
benefits everyone. So we'll keep that going. And today five dollars,
because of course it's five dollars Tuesday. All right, We've
got enough people in here. Now let's get right into it.
We are starting the day. Can't believe I'm staying this,
Brian Leonard. We are starting the day in Cleveland, Ohio,
because the Guardians are not only in the playoffs, but
they're hosting a playoff game, something that I just didn't
(07:27):
think was even remotely possible this season, even at the
beginning of the season when they weren't fifteen games behind
the leader in the division. So Tiger's Guardians, they absolutely owned.
The Guardians actually owned the Tigers in September, but it's
a clean slate. We talked about this the last couple
of weeks. The Tigers get in, are they dangerous? And
do you like them here?
Speaker 1 (07:49):
I did want to point out that it's a little
bit different this year because the home team is going
to get all three games because they got to get
these three games in in three days, so there's not
going to be any traveling, So that Cleveland being able
to outlast Detroit and get that home advantage is really
(08:11):
even more important than what we what, at least I
thought at the time. And also, as I mentioned, these
are lower scoring games, so every run counts. And you
mentioned Cleveland being the first game on the board, Well,
Cleveland and Detroit, whoever wins this series is going to
be the first game on the board just about every
(08:32):
time because we've got games being played in Chicago, New York,
and Los Angeles, the three big media centers, so all
the people want to be able to watch those games,
all the local fans. So yeah, unfortunately the Detroit Cleveland
series gets first crack every day, but hey, no, who
cares as long as you get to play the games.
(08:53):
Both these teams are very happy to be here. Schooball
the left to going against Williams. But by the way,
there's eight teams going today. Five of those teams are
starting lefties, including the Bosston New York game, in which
they've got two lefties going in that one school Ball
the lefty against Williams. Already, this is starting to be
a very familiar thing. Is these two seems to be
(09:16):
going against each other a lot lately. We're looking at
Detroit roughly about a one sixty favorite here, total of six,
and that is the lowest total on the board. Let
me check the real quick the park factors. Progressive Field,
the wind is blowing in, it should be nothing different
than normal Dodger Stadium blowing out slightly. There's going to
(09:40):
be point, excuse me, three percent runs less than a
normal game. The Yankees blowing left right there will be
minus eight percent, and Wrigley Field blowing dead dead end
from center field eleven percent less runs in Wrigley Field
as you would normally get based on the wind direction
for today. Scoobl on Williams. I took a look at
(10:04):
this series. Scooble is, as I mentioned about a one
sixty favorite here, Detroit is actually favored in the series
in about the one twenty range, even though they're only
going to be favored in one of the three games,
and Cleveland has seen Schooble, they've performed well against School.
School has pitched well against them, but Cleveland has fared well.
(10:26):
If you take a look at I went back, the
team total for Detroit in this game is three and
a half, and in a game.
Speaker 4 (10:34):
Where you only expect to score six runs, I think
that's a pretty nice bet on the under in that.
If I went back and looked at the last thirteen
Cleveland games they've held Cleveland games at home, they've held
the opposition to under three and a half runs in
nine of those thirteen games, and all of them so
(10:56):
far into September, they've been terrific. Right now, that Detroit
team total is under three and a half at minus
one twenty five. And also Cleveland has held Detroit under
four of the six games in Cleveland in this month,
also under the total, So they've done well. And you know,
we usually talk about Cleveland against Detroit and especially the
(11:19):
left handers. Cleveland's not really built to be good against
left handers. But my roommate for this week, Rob Michaels,
has pointed out that Cleveland is fifteen and five versus
lefties since July seventh, and including a seven and oh run,
so Cleveland against lefties is looking pretty good. Cleveland's at
(11:39):
two and a half of one team total, Detroit three
and a half on their team total, so I think
you're either better off playing Detroit team total under or
Cleveland over two and a half. I'm going to go
with the Detroit team total under here under three and
a half, and that's probably my one of my best
bets on this show here, So we'll go with Detroit
(12:02):
to team total under three and a half minus one
twenty five.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
I would totally agree with that reason being Cleveland has
every advantage here except starting pitching. Cleveland's bats are are
hotter than Detroit's bats right now. Cleveland's bullpen much better
than Detroit's in my opinion, Sorry, my necklace is coming off,
but starting pitching. Actually, Scooble is a top two pitcher
(12:29):
in Major League Baseball. Everybody knows that. So taking a
look at Gavin Williams, now, this is one of the
pitching starters that surprised me. I thought they were going
to start Tanner Biby, but then it came out Williams,
and I'm like, why would they do that?
Speaker 2 (12:43):
I dug a little deeper.
Speaker 3 (12:44):
And I found out why they did it. Gavin Williams
against the Detroit Tigers one hundred and twenty five at
bats against one hundred one sixty eight average against in
a five h two OPS. Amazing numbers and a huge
sample size, So that's exactly the reason they did it.
I would say game total under maybe first five, under
(13:05):
three and a half because Scooble has pretty good numbers
against these guys too. But I don't think you can
take Detroit at this number because the only advantage they
have in this game is Scooble. But given the stats
that I just gave you right now, that kind of
negates that advantage there. In my opinion, I think Cleveland
is a live dog here, and coming towards the end
(13:28):
of the season, they were much more on fire than Detroit.
Detroit just kind of fizzled out and backed into the playoffs.
So momentum is a tricky thing in the playoffs though,
because they've had some time off, they're regrouping, so momentum
doesn't really mean all that much. But man, the Tigers
are the real Tigers, the first half Tigers or the
(13:48):
second half Tigers. I tend to believe it's the second
half Tigers, So Guardians would be the only way I
would go here. A Detroit team total under perhaps or
a Guardian's plus one and a half some like that
would be how I would go.
Speaker 2 (14:04):
Yeah, I think the reason that they want to match
Gavin Williams up with Schooble is because Gavin Williams is
the more likely guy if he's on where he can
throw zeros up like, so that's where it's like, by
the I think is capable of giving you a nice effort,
a good start, But if you're looking at someone that
essentially needs to Outdueltreek Schooble, and Gavin Williams has this
(14:27):
good stuff his like his good stuff can can wipe
out a lineup and can match Schooble, which I guess
the thought process here is while he's you know, he's
going to go out and shut down the Guardians. At
least that's what the books are saying. The total in
this game is six, so they don't think there's gonna
be much offense. And the other thing with Gavin Williams,
(14:48):
which I think makes it a little bit easier to
use him as your game one starter is if he
doesn't have it, you can bail on him quicker because
like he has been somewhat of an like all or
nothing type guy. When he's on, you know, he's given
you six or seven good innings when he's off, and
when he's off attends to be location related, putting guys
on walking guys. I think the Guardians might be able
(15:10):
to say, you know what, we got to go in
a different direction. We're going to go to the bullpen.
And then it's really like a inning by inning type
thing where it's like, where are we at in the game.
How many resources do we want to burn here? Because
here's the thing. In a three game series, for the while,
like three game series will they will burn through every
reliever they need to burn through if it means they
(15:32):
can get a win. However, if it's a different situation,
let's say all of a sudden, Guardians are down for nothing,
it's a totally different game plan, totally different approach because
you now have to start to prepare to have your
best guys in game two, in game three. That's why
these three game series, or really any of these playoffs
series are so intriguing because it can change on a
(15:54):
moment's notice. But I think that's why you see Gavin
Williams here, because I think he gives them the best
chance to match Scua Bowl and get to the bullpens,
which actually the Guardians have quite the advantage if you
look at this series, like, not only has their bullpen
been better, but in the head to head games against Detroit,
the Guardian's bullpen has been significantly better so far this year,
(16:20):
Guardians bullpen against the Tigers one point seventy five era,
Tiger's bullpen against the Guardians four point one two. And
then you know, you talk about Tokyo Brandon, you talk
about what Tigers are we going to see? Well, yeah,
like the last month, the Guardians are the best record
in baseball. The Tigers are the worst record in the
American League, right like, so you know, I my personal
(16:42):
thought process is you let the Tigers in, not the Guardians.
The Guardians didn't let him in, but the Astros did,
and now they have new life. That scares me in
terms of wanting to fade them. But I don't think
you can discount the fact that this team has just
not been the same team since the beginning of the year,
and the thing that made the Tigers, if you go
(17:02):
back to last year's playoffs, they were very No one
gave the Tigers a chance really in last year's playoffs,
at least many people did not. The reason that they
were able to win that series against the Astros, and
the reason they were able to get as far as
they were able to get in the playoffs was aj
Hinch's ability to mix and match the relievers and sort
of play this nine in in game where he had
(17:25):
a plan for every inning and he really mixed and matched.
I don't know that he can do it with this
year's roster. I just don't know that this relief unit
or this group of pitchers is as good as last year's.
And so that gives me a little bit of concern
for the Tigers. With a lot of what you guys
are saying in the chat, and I agree with sort
of both of you. I don't know if I can
(17:47):
I certainly can't lay a dollar sixty here, but I
don't know if I have enough to go against the Tigers.
So I'm likely out on this one. Brian, was that
your part, I are we going to do the parlay
for this show. I guess we are for a game
you want.
Speaker 1 (18:01):
Yeah, yeah, we could do it if we're gonna if
we're gonna do the part, I put that down for me.
Detroit under the nine excuse me, three and a half
team total minus one twenty five.
Speaker 3 (18:10):
Who's Detroit gonna start in game two? I mean, we
can talk about it tomorrow, but are they gonna start
Montero or here's.
Speaker 2 (18:18):
The other thing too. I don't think I truly believe this,
and especially like someone like Hinch, I really don't think
these guys are looking at game two. Yeah, I think
this game. I think in a three game series, this
game is so important that I believe they might have
their game two starter in their head and you might
(18:39):
not see them. But I think, based on how Game
one Ghost is what teams a lot of times do
with games.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
Cleveland already listed Vibe as their Game two.
Speaker 1 (18:49):
I'm sure he's gonna I'm assuming it's gonna be Casey.
Speaker 3 (18:53):
Mice Game three. Though Cleveland's in trouble because Cony's gonna
be their starter. It's not good news for them.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
But anyway, I don't know that. I don't know if
he would be their.
Speaker 3 (19:04):
Starter for it's already listed.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
Yeah, but this is what I'm saying, they can change.
Just because the starter is listed by MLB dot Com
means absolutely nothing. These these things are going to change
based on They're just the subject to change. I truly
believe no manager has Game three planned out yet. I
think the emphasis is winning Game one and then they'll
see how how it goes.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
The Tigers this season, though, if they lose a Scooball game,
they're in big trouble. That's that's that's what I think.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
Yeah, I do agree with that. I think if the
Tigers lose this game, I wouldn't be surprised if the
Guardians wrap this up into I think losing today would
be devastating for them.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
I would say in the past, a lot of these
games that we thought were going to go three ended
up being a sweep. So yeah, it's it's something that
if if you've got a chance to play your team
and you want them to win the series, just go
for the sweep on it. Because you get those two
wins and it's over, and that's something that has paid off.
(20:07):
It doesn't mean it's going to pay off again this year.
But still that these first games are very important, and
as was pointed out by Brandon, if Detroit happens to
lose this game, then they're in some tough tough spot
because Cleveland will have the starting pitcher edge probably on them.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
And almost like you're thinking too much, Adam like, well, yeah,
that's the point of the show. We're trying to break
down the games.
Speaker 3 (20:35):
We're going deep, guys, this isn't this is a baseball
nerd show. This is not a picks show.
Speaker 2 (20:40):
So all right, and yeah, we only got four games,
so we gotta you gotta give them the extra extra
rub here or else. We're not going to have an
hour show. So let's get into the next game. I
thought we did a thorough breakdown there. Let's try to
do that with Padres Cubs. Uh. This is a very
very intriguing series. To me. I don't read a ton
(21:01):
of just like I read what I can. I only
have so many hours in the day. But someone sent
me a good article from the Player's Tribune that Pete
crow Armstrong wrote a couple of days ago. It's worth
a read if you can find it out there. He
kind of was. He wrote about his second half struggles
and about like going into the playoffs, October baseball, how
(21:21):
much this means to the city of Chicago got me
fired up. I was ready to go, you know, go
play after reading that. And now, of course we've got
Cubbies at home, and October Baseball could be short lived
for them if they don't win here, because as we know,
you're in the playoffs, but these series go quick, and
you lose today and suddenly it's your life is on
(21:42):
the line tomorrow. Very interesting game one right here, probably
in my opinion, this might be the best game of
the day, Like, this is the most interesting game of
the day for me, because you have the Padres as
an underdog on the road at Wrigley. It should be
in a tremendous atmosphere at Rigging. They're going to end
up having to go with Matt Boyd because of course,
(22:03):
Kate Horton might have been the guy in this game,
but now he's hurt. And Nick Pivetta has been great,
but the Padres Brian Leonard have not been quite the
same team on the road as they have at home.
So how do you look at this one? Padres Cubs,
Pavetta Boyd? All right, do you have a play here.
Speaker 1 (22:19):
Yeah, we're looking at basically the White Sox have been
met up a little bit. They're up to about one
on twenty three or so with a total of seven.
Matthew Boyd did a press conference yesterday and it was
pretty touching. He said he'd gone his first eight years
without making it to the playoffs and he's so excited
to be here. And he said his grandfather was always
(22:43):
a Chicago Cubs fan, and I believe he'd passed away,
and he was tearing up a little bit when he
was talking about it, but he gets the call here
at home. It was somewhat I was somewhat surprised with
the opening number on the series being the Cubs minus
one fifteen, and of course it's up to about one
point thirty now. Chicago getting all three of those at home,
(23:05):
I thought was a big advantage in this. And plus
they're hitters. They're starting to get their hitters back, and
we'll see if they continue to play well. But this
is a team. Both these teams have been basically tread
and water for a while. Now we'll see if somebody
can is able to turn it right on. But Pavetta's
flyball pitcher, but As I mentioned before, the wind is
(23:27):
blowing straight in here, so that's going to make his
start even better because that's usually if Nick Pavetta is
the last few seasons he gets in trouble with home runs.
Other than that, the guy's been a great pitcher, and
as I said, for him to be around a free
agent for as long as he was, San Diego made
(23:48):
a great deal. And if you take a look at
some of the other signings in the offseason, you got
to say Pavetta is probably the best pitching signing for
a starter, and San Diego did a really nice job
on that. But do I trustee of the one of
these teams. They're so hard to predict at this point.
I think the line is somewhat cheap with Boyd, but
(24:09):
we've talked in the past about those because of his
injuries he's had, He's already way past where he's pitched
the last two years, and now, as you mentioned, without Horton,
he has to get even more innings here in the playoffs.
This could be one of those where if it gets
to five innings or in the four innings, they may
(24:31):
pull the plug on them early and let the bullpen
come around. San Diego should feel pretty good about Paveta
going deeper in this game. So I don't know which
way to take It's the line is about where I
made it, so I'm probably not going to get involved
in this one.
Speaker 3 (24:48):
Five dollars Tuesday, guys, we all have plays up for
five bucks free plays as well. Go to wajytalk dot
com to see what we have up. Mine's already up
by the way. Yeah, these two teams. I have these
two teams matched up less than a point apart. This
is the tightest matchup of all the playoff matchups, according
(25:10):
to my numbers the eye tests. Padres have such a
plethora of talent, but they're underperform year after year. I
was surprised to look at the records and see that
Chicago has two more wins than the Padres. That kind
of surprised me because Padres are more talented in my opinion,
But and Padres have one of the best bullpens, but
(25:31):
they underperform always and I don't know why. So Paveta
and Boyd looking at their stats against the batters they're
facing today, they both have been rocked pretty good and
it's a good sample size, so my inclination would be
go to the over because we've got two power lineups here,
but we also have two good bullpens. So hmm, kind
(25:55):
of gridlocked here. Every stat I look at that makes
me lean this way, I find another death that makes
me look this way. So I'm totally good lucked in this.
There's no way I'm going to bet this game. I'm
probably not gonna bet this series at all because I
got these teams just so dead.
Speaker 2 (26:09):
Even Brian, can I get my Wrigley Field weather report
from you? I pretty much ask every time we have
a Cubs game.
Speaker 1 (26:18):
Yeah, the wind's blowing directly and home runs shoot me
down fifteen percent, doubles and triples plus one percent, singles
down seven percent, and total runs down eleven percent.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
Yeah. I guessed as much when I saw the total
that there might be some wind blowing in. It doesn't,
I gotta be honest, though, it doesn't totally put me
off the over. Here at seven flat, I kind of
go back to, you know, so what Tokyo Brandon said, Yeah,
you do have two lineups that are capable. I think
you have two pitchers. I'm not as high as the
(26:53):
market seems to be on Paveta. So that's like, I
don't know if it's gonna put me on the Cubs
per se, but like, I'm not high as high in
the market as Paveta. He's got a the the exit
v LO numbers and the barrel rate numbers and the
hard hit being in the bottom fifteen percent is concerning
to me. Now, he doesn't really get many ground balls,
So if this was a scenario where the wind was
(27:15):
blowing out at Wrigley, I'd probably like the Cubs a
lot more for that reason. I think the wind blowing
in definitely helps him out a little bit. On the
other side, I don't mind Boyd, but Brian's made this
point well over the last couple of months. You know,
He's really hammered the point home on the show, and
I think it's it's worth noting that the innings may
(27:36):
have to start to catch up with him a little bit.
I agree with with Brian in the sense that I
think Counsel could go to the bullpen early. I'm not
exactly sure that's a great thing. That's the one thing
this cut I don't It's not that the Cubs of
a bad bullpen. I just don't know if I trust
the guys that are coming out of that bullpen in
(27:57):
a spot of this magnitude. I actually don't know if
I trust the Padres relievers in the in Wrigley on
the road, Whereas, like you look at some of the
bullpen numbers from the Padres over the last month, month
and a half, Mason Miller has been lights out, Suarez
has been lights out. They clearly have the better bullpen.
But you know what, I've watched Mason Miller a lot,
and when he when he gets a little too juiced up,
(28:19):
he hasn't pitched in many big games in his career.
I think it's worth noting, like he spent most of
his time in Oakland, how many big games are he pitching? Zero?
And then he's pitched in a couple with San Diego.
But there's been a couple of times where he's been
on the road in a big spot, he's a little
too juiced up. Suddenly he doesn't throw a strike, and
then it's like that hundred hundred and one mile an
(28:40):
hour fastball a little less effective. He might groove one.
I go back to ticket that I cashed earlier this year.
He's on the road against the Marlins. They put a
little pressure on him. Kyle Stowers, it's a grand slam.
I'm not saying that that's what's going to happen here,
but I think that just saying, oh, well, the Padres
have this lockdown bullpen, so they're a guarantee to go
get nine tough outs at Wrigley against this Cubs lineup,
(29:03):
I think you maybe need to you know, I don't
know that that's just a guarantee. On the flip side,
I certainly don't think that the Cubs bullpen stringing together
four innings worth of outs as a guarantee either. So
I still kind I kind of like the over here
at seven flat, it doesn't take much to get to seven.
You get to three, three, you're free rolling. The weather
(29:27):
is a little bit. It's just annoying that we don't
have a little bit of a breeze out. But again,
seven flat makes me kind of like the over I
think you're gonna have. So let's get a chat common
in here, because I agree with this. Wrigley's very tough
parked to homer in when the wind blows in. I
don't know that you need home runs to get to seven, like,
(29:50):
just because it's a hard park to hit a home
run in. I don't think it means that these lineups
couldn't get a timely hit or put up a crooked number.
And that's the thing with some of these totals you're
going to see in the playoffs. Seven's not that it's
not that hard to get to sit like three to
three and all of a sudden you can't you can't
lose the over. I think it's a little light. I
(30:11):
still would have made it seven and a half go ahead, Bryan.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
Yeah. I did want to point out I'm not enamored
with the Cup's bullpen, but they've got a lot of
veterans Kittridge, Keller, Phil Barr, Pomerance, Rogers. They've got guys
who've been around for a long time, and so it's
not like Plunchy is one of their co closers right now,
and he's young, he's only twenty five years old. But
(30:34):
the other guys have been around the box, so I
don't think it'll affect them as much as it will
be some young players. And I did get a message
from my new secretary, Ralph Michaels, that you were talking
about a package for all of us for okay, Okay,
there's okay, so I guess it's coming through. But you
(30:57):
could save fifty dollars on our playoff packages ninety nine
dollars to the one forty nine, so it goes by
bases ninety nine, so I guess they're not altogether, but
you can buy them separately bases ninety nine and save
yourselves fifty bucks from each of us and help by
all three of them. So we'll get you some profit
(31:18):
as was mentioned about forty six units of profit last year.
And you've watched this all season long, and you know
we know what we're doing with baseball, so yeah, join
us with the playoffs. And I do have a excuse me,
a four percent up for five dollars on today's card,
and I'll be putting up a free play later on.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
And it bases ninety nine is what exactly? Can you
just clarify what that is again.
Speaker 1 (31:43):
Versus ninety nine? Basically, instead of getting our playoff package
for one hundred and forty nine, or each of our
playoff packages for one hundred and forty nine, you get
them for ninety nine. So for two ninety seven you
can get all three of our packages.
Speaker 3 (31:58):
Go to whichever cap you like and use bases ninety
nine to get about thirty percent off our MLB playoffs package.
Speaker 2 (32:07):
Basically, right, forty seven point forty seven point five one units.
That's what the three of us combined to make in
the playoffs last year.
Speaker 3 (32:17):
Basically, all of us made a profit last year in
MLB playoffs with the one you trust, and each one
of us were offering a playoff package bases ninety nine
ninety nine bucks for the entire MLB Playoffs until through
the World Series. Yeah, okay, this was just a second
(32:39):
comment on the Cubs Padres. Right, one thing, just a
quick note. Padres are a very poor road team, and
the Cubs are very good at home. So Cubs are
fifty and thirty one at home, Padres thirty eight and
forty three. I think that's the only team. No, the
Padres and the Reds are the two teams that have
losing road records here. So yeah, Padres just underperform. Such
(33:02):
a hard team to trust. But dang, you're so talented.
Speaker 2 (33:06):
Yeah, no, you're right about that. And and here's the
thing with the Padres, I think when they're when they're
pricing the Padres, I'm gonna get a lot of credit
for the bullpen. It's it's it's widely known that they
have the best bullpen in the week. And if you
look at a lot of the stats, like if you
were just to pull up bullpen stats, you're going to
see the Padres at the top of that list. Everyone knows, Yeah,
(33:28):
everyone knows Mason Miller is a beast. Everyone knows Robert
Sorez is great. My whole thing is this, Like I
you put them in this environment, I do think it's
a little bit of an equalizer. And then you look
at what the Padres have done at Pecco as opposed
to what they've done on the road. I think, I think,
(33:49):
even what my numbers make this game, I don't fully
trust because I'm gonna I'm gonna bump the Cubbies a
little bit here. I'm gonna bump the Cubbies a little
bit here to being at home just standard. But I'm
gonna definitely downgrade the pirate of the Padres for being
on the road because I think, a the numbers show
that they've been worse on the road, and b those
(34:09):
big time relievers, like listen, you get Mason Miller on
the Mount at pet Cole Park game on the line,
He's probably gonna throw three pitches by you. The whole
park's gonna be behind him. It's gonna be good morning,
good afternoon, good night on the road. I think the
outs are tougher, and so I do think that might
give a little bit of an edge to the Cubs
if you're looking on a side bet here.
Speaker 3 (34:30):
I was just surprised going through. I didn't realize the
Cubs won that many games. It didn't seem like they did,
but they did. Pretty good team, talented team.
Speaker 2 (34:41):
Very interesting game. I'm not gonna I want to see
how the other two play out in terms of our
discussions on them, but I'll I may circle back to
that one. We'll see. Okay, let's move on, Red Sox Yankees.
What a treat. Some of these matchups are wild Card
round and we're getting Guardians Tigers, We're getting Red Sox
Yankees division rivals. You love to see that another chapter
(35:05):
if you will, in the Red Sox Yankees rivalry. We're
gonna get to We're gonna get to see the crashouts
of one of these fan bases over the next couple
of days. So that should be great for neutral people
that don't care about either team. But it's Garrett Crochet,
It's Max Freed Yankee Stadium, Red Sox Yankees, Brian Leonard,
you get involved in this one.
Speaker 1 (35:27):
Yeah, I may be Crochet going for the Boston Freed
for the Yankees. The Yankees are about a one thirty
favorite or so a total of seven, but I'm more
interested in the series price. We're getting the Yankees right
now in about a one eighty five range. The reason
why I like the Yankees in the series is because
(35:49):
you've got Boston's clearly best pitcher going today, and yet
the Yankees are about a one thirty favorite in the game.
The next two games, if it does get to that point,
will have huge advantages for the Yankees. They've got better
starting pitchers than Boston. Boston's got some young talent, but
(36:10):
these are all young guys that haven't been in this
position before. You take a look at the Yankees, and
they've got Rode down out there. Schlittler has pitched terrific
down the stretch, and the Yankees have that ability where
I know the bullpen struggled early on, but he's pitching
much better now and from a hitting standpoint, Obviously, the
(36:32):
Yankees have the better hitters. They're the better home run hitters.
Boston really doesn't have a lot of home run power.
They had their third baseman who wouldn't leave. Devers was
the guy who they couldn't get to play first base.
He leaves, and if you go back and look, he
was really good in Boston. He was really hot when
he played. And then you also have the Boston rookie
(36:55):
who is no longer there and he's not playing right now.
And those are the two. Really, they're two best hitters
on the season. Bregman started the year great, but he
hasn't hit well in the second half. I've got some
concerns against Boston. Normally, when Boston gets together with the Yankees,
I like to play the underdog in that. I just
think the Yankees right now are so much better than
(37:17):
this current Boston offense. It's you're not going to find
a better discrepancy, a bigger discrepancy other than maybe the
Dodters in the in the Reds from the hitting department.
But the Yankees are much better hitters than Boston is.
They got much better power, and there are playing at home,
and I like the way, the bullpen's coming out, So
(37:37):
I'm not going to get involved in this Game one,
but I do like the Yankees to win this series.
That would be my better bet in this.
Speaker 3 (37:47):
Uh yeah, hard to argue with that, given the fact
that after Crochet, the Red Sox will be putting out
Brian Bao and Lucas Ciliedo's out, So who do they
got after that? Kyle Harrison, I don't know. If this
goes to Game three, they're in trouble. They're in trouble
(38:09):
if this goes to Game three, because the Yankees probably
will not start Will Warren. They'll probably go with Schlitler
over Warren in Game three. But anyways, we're jumping ahead
regarding today's game. This is so great. I love Playoff
Baseball Game ones because you get such good pitching matchup.
We've got Crochet and Free. This is two top ten
(38:30):
MLB pitchers, and if you look how they performed against
the teams they're facing both, you know, as you would expect,
like two twenty averages against the teams they're facing in
like six hundred ops. Is not great, not horrible, but
definitely better than average. Yankees have pretty much every advantage,
(38:52):
but kind of a slight advantage the bullpen, though they
do have quite a big advantage over Boston here, but
the hitting I got the Yankees ranked six where I
got Boston ranked ten, So slight advantage. But overall, Yankees
are the better team. But I like Crochet a little
more than I like Freed, but is a pitching advantage.
(39:13):
This is kind of similar to the Tigers game today.
I like the Tigers starter better, but is just having
a better starter enough to take them No, I don't
think so. I think the books, when they're pricing things
they consider starting pitching. They put a little too much
(39:34):
emphasis on starting pitching sometimes. But given the fact that
I like Crochet better than Freed, I was surprised to
see the Yankees favored here. Something's wacky about this number.
But Boston, if they don't win this game, they're in
deep trouble. I'm not going to bet the game, though,
but I do think the Yankees will probably win.
Speaker 2 (39:57):
I'm going to make a statement that I think people
will disagree with, but listen, hear me out first, because
I'm uh the Yankees are the best team in the
American League. I'm not saying they're going to the World Series, Okay, matchups,
It's hard to string together wins in the playoffs this
right now, and in my opinion is the is the
most talented team in the AL. And listen, the Mariners
(40:21):
have a great team. But I think when you take
everything into account, hitting, pitching, ballpark factors, right like, everything
into account, I think the Yankees are the toughest out
in the AL right now. And the fact that they
get this game at home is massive. I said a
couple of weeks ago, I thought the Red the Red
(40:41):
Sox would be the odd team out in the American League.
The only reason that they weren't is because the Astros
couldn't beat the UH, the Oakland, the West, Sacramento A's
down the stretch right It's the only reason the Red
Sox are still in the playoffs, in my opinion, is
that the Astros couldn't. Now, maybe they would have gotten
in over the time, I'm not sure. But the point is,
(41:01):
the point I'm trying to make with the Red Sox
is they haven't been a playoff team since Roman Anthony
went down. It's Titan CT. I still like the Jas,
but I'm saying that I think the Yankees are the
most talented team. I think when you take this, when
you look at this Yankees team, put them on their
home field. Look at what Max Freed has done over
(41:22):
the past month and a half. Six last seven starts
for Max Freed six and zero, one point five to
five ERA. Like if I don't know, I don't know
that there's another guy right now that I want with
the ball in the playoff game like that I that
I trust more maybe than Max Free. I mean, you
(41:42):
talk about the Blue Jays. I'm not going to go
too far off topic. Who do you want on that
team with the ball right now? That you're like, yeah,
I love this, I love this spot in a playoff game, right,
Who do you want on the Guardians? Gavin Williams? You
know what I'm saying. I'm talking about Look at the
American League. You want Logan Gilbert in there? Like he's
been good, but I also think he's hurt. I'm just saying,
(42:03):
like this Yankees team, Max Freed them at home. Judge,
I know he hasn't been great in the playoffs in
his career, but that that's a small sample that could
obviously change. I think the Yankees are going to be
very tough out. I agree with Brian. I like them
to win this series, and I will make them our
parlay league here. So my parlay league's gonna be Yankees.
(42:23):
Money line. Didn't don't love minus one thirty against Crochet. Listen.
I respect the hell out of Garrett Crochet. He's a
great pitcher. But outside of him here, I just don't
see what the Red Sox have that gives them any
sort of edge in this game. Brian, go ahead.
Speaker 1 (42:36):
Yeah. When I look at the fan Rex Grafts page
for the roster resource they've got over the last fourteen days,
Max Free is the number one pitcher in Major League Baseball,
number one starter, and if you look at the last
seven days from hitting, Aaron Judge is the number one hitter,
and Carlos Stanton Mike Stanton, if you were long ago
(42:58):
like me, he's the ninth best pitcher. So they've got
their three and four hitters are both top ten hitting
right now, and their starting pitcher is the best for
the last fourteen days. It's tough to go against that,
you know, Aaron Judge. As much as we like the
big dumper, Aaron Joaz is probably the most talented hitter
in Major League baseball, at least in the American League,
(43:19):
and he's the hottest hitter in baseball the last week,
anything can happen, and the playoffs are a little bit
different ballgame. But he's coming in here red hot. So
it's hard to go against the Yankees right now. I
think Seattle is the better team. I think they will
win the American League. But you made a great point.
The Yankees are a tough out. They've got the experience,
(43:42):
they've got a lot of depth, and we all know
the changes they made into their bullpen, which are starting
to pay off a little bit right now. So yeah,
one of the reasons why I like the Yankees to
win this series.
Speaker 2 (43:52):
If it does become Seattle Yankees, I'll say this about
that series. The Mariners will have a much tougher time
winning in the Yankee Stadium. The Yankees will have winning
in Seattle. I think that would be the only sort
of you know, thing I would say about that, because
I'm not disagreeing with you the Mariners. I do think
if you were to put rosters bullpen starting pitching, I could,
(44:13):
you know, And obviously I've liked them all year, I've
invested in them, so I hope they win. But like
when I look at like their biggest competition in the
American League, I thought it was going to be the
Blue Jays. But now that you start to see some
of the injuries that they've had and I kind of
look at their rotation, I'm like, I don't know if
that rotation matches up with one of those two point
I'm trying to make here is I think the Yankees
(44:34):
are very talented. I think they're starting to play their
best baseball at the right time. If you go back
to that Marlin series, which was a total disaster for
the Yankees, They're kicking the ball all over the field.
Jash Chishom's thrown it into the fourth row. They're getting beat
I think they got swept in Miami like almost since
that point, it was like it was the low point
(44:54):
of the season for them. The Yankees have really turned
it around. And I don't know that it's they've gotten
the they've deserve for it because they didn't win a division.
There's been other better kind of stories in Major League Baseball.
Is I'll throw this out to both of you, is
it safe to say the Yankees have flown under the
radar A little bit right now, because I just don't
think they're getting the hype they usually get.
Speaker 1 (45:18):
I agree.
Speaker 3 (45:19):
I think that might have to do with the fact
that they didn't win the division number one, and they're
probably the worst fielding team in all of Major League Baseball.
Those two factors probably take them off the radar a little.
But you're right, they are extremely talented. Even after Judge
and Stanton, they still have some decent hitting, which I
(45:41):
didn't expect at the beginning of the season.
Speaker 1 (45:44):
I will point out the Jazz chis and was injured
and I haven't seen if he's playing today or not.
Bad defensive player, but the guy does have a decent bat,
so he's been very good.
Speaker 2 (45:56):
Yeah, listen, the margins are so thin in the playoffs,
especially you get a matchuplake this. We could sit here
and argue all day who's better Crochet or Freed. It's
a very I mean, you can make incredible cases for both,
but I just think if this game got into the bullpens,
I'd rather have the Yankees bullpen on their home field.
That I'm not a huge fan of the group of
Red Sox relievers. And then, of course you're now going
(46:18):
to put them in a tough, high leverage spot in
Yankee Stadium. Priced appropriately probably, but again, we only have
four games to choose from, and for the parlay, I'm
okay with minus one thirty so and I agree with you, Brian.
I think the Yankee series bet is a great bet.
I don't see the Red Sox twenty this series, so yeah,
(46:38):
I will go with the Yankees. And that brings us
to our final game. I think I've tied this out nicely.
We've got thirteen minutes left on the show. One more
game to talk about Tokyo. Brandon is gonna get us
a chance to talk about how Dave Roberts is a
terrible manager. But we're gonna let Brian Leonard go first.
So the nightcap tonight out West Reds, Dodgers, Hunter Green,
(47:00):
Blake Snow. Who do you have here?
Speaker 1 (47:02):
Snell the lefty, Green the righty. We're looking at the
Dodgers about yeah, about a two dollars favorite right now,
with the line total of seven slightly to the over.
If you're looking at the series, the Dodgers are upward
to the three dollars range two eighty to three dollars. Obviously,
the Dodgers have the better pitching, although Hunter Green's been terrific,
(47:28):
He's just been awesome. But he's much better at home
than he is on the road on the season. And
you could actually say that this could be like found
money for the Reds because they weren't expected to be there.
They had fallen back, and you know, the Mets put
him in this position. They didn't win the playoff spot.
(47:50):
The Mets just choked it away. And so Cincinnati comes in,
you know, with no pressure at all on him, and
the Dodgers obviously being the defending champs and all the
money they have in the team, there's a lot more
pressure on the Dodgers. So this first game is very important.
If Cincinnati was to win this game, there'd be a
(48:11):
ton of pressure on the Dodgers after that. And that's
something that I don't want to lay. I have them
laying three dollars as a favorite in this so and
when you get to the playoffs, every team that's in
the playoffs has been able to win on other teams fields.
They've been able to beat good pitchers as the season
goes on. It's not like you got the road Rockies
(48:33):
here where they've only won what eighteen games over the
entire season on the road, We've got all every series
has got teams that are very good at the underdog role.
Now that said, I don't know if I'm going to
get there with Cincinnati, but I can't lay this number
with the Dodgers. It's just too much for me against
a team that's even even if you're a five hundred
(48:55):
ball club, which basically the Cincinnati Reds were, and they're
much better at home and they are on the road,
there's still a good team. And a lot of this
will depend on if the Dodgers get Smith back at catcher.
Now they say he's probably going to be back, but
he is so good about shutting down the opposition's running game,
(49:16):
and that's what Cincinnati can do.
Speaker 2 (49:17):
Now.
Speaker 1 (49:18):
Granted they didn't still these many bases this year is
they had in the past. Francona is not a guy
who goes out there and trusts to steal that extra base.
But that shuts down a major part of the Cincinnati
team because from a power perspective, the Dodgers have a
lot more power than Cincinnati does, and Cincinnati's got to
(49:39):
be able against the quality pitching like the Dodgers they've
got to be able to run into some runs, steal
some bases, go for first third, that kind of thing.
So with Smith the catcher, I think that's a big deal.
If he's starting at catcher, I don't want Cincinnati. If
for some reason he's dhing today, then there's more value
on Cincinnati in that regard. If he asked me.
Speaker 3 (50:01):
The Dodgers have talented pitching, they have talented starting pitching.
They have good names in their bullpen, but their bullpen
has been atrocious this season. I mean Blake Trying, and yes,
he was injured for a lot of the season, but
since he's come back from injury, he has not been himself.
Makes me worried because many guys in the clubhouse will
(50:25):
say he has the best stuff in that bullpen. Tanner
Scott awful. Since he came to the Dodgers. I expected
big things from him. He's been terrible this he has
been good. Who else has been good in their bullpen.
They've got two guys who have been consistent.
Speaker 1 (50:42):
In their bullpen.
Speaker 3 (50:43):
Uh, and then they're just thrown out dudes out there.
So the bullpen is hard to trust. But I like
the Dodgers. I'm gonna make the Dodgers my parlay leg.
I'm gonna make them Dodgers first five money line my
parlay leg. And I'll tell you why. Hunter has been
great this season. But he has an eight hundred OPS
(51:05):
against the Dodgers in his career against these batters, and
one of the biggest discrepancies in home road records. He's
one five eighty R at home and a four to
eight ERA on the road. And that's not against the Dodgers,
that's against anyone. So I think the Dodgers have a
good potential to tag Green here early. Several ways you
(51:28):
could go here, Dodgers first five over one and a
half even, I think would be a decent way to go.
But Blake Snell against these Reds unbelievable numbers forty eight
at bats against, one oh four average against and a
three fourteen OPS. That's almost four hundred points below what
(51:49):
I consider the Mendoz aligned for ops unbelievable numbers. I
think Blake Snell is going to shut these batters down.
The Reds are the one team that pretty much doesn't
long in the playoffs. They backed their way in by
losing their last game, and they got lucky that the
Mets lost, so uh, I mean, they don't belong here.
(52:10):
I think the Dodgers will just mop him up, in
my opinion, so that's gonna be the The bullpen does
worry me, but uh yeah, Dave Roberts, Yeah, let me. Well,
we'll go on Dave Robert. We'll wait till Dave Roberts
blows a game and then I'll go off on him.
But I'll give him, I'll give him a long lease
until he makes a dumb mistake. If he pulls Blake
(52:32):
Snell after three innings, I'm gonna throw up.
Speaker 2 (52:36):
Yeah, yeah, listen TV. I can't. I can't disagree with that.
All your all your points are sound points. The one
thing I will, I guess, push back on a little
bit is like I don't think that it matters that
maybe like a team backed their way into the playoffs.
Like I don't think that's like a way to sort
of like make a case against the team, because again,
(52:58):
I think you get in sometimes you get in in
that fashion, like Brian Leonard said, you're playing with house money.
You're very dangerous. That being said, in this matchup, I
definitely think this matchup suits the Dodgers. I kind of
like that Dodgers team total over. I think Dodgers team
total over is a pretty good way to go here.
(53:19):
Reason I think that you could see some runs in
this game, especially maybe the Dodgers scoring some runs. Hunter
Green is really like he's gonna throw almost all fastballs,
probably probably fifty five to sixty fastballs. And like, I mean,
if you look at what he's done this season, it's
one hundred miles an hour here it is do something
(53:40):
with it. And the Dodgers are one of the teams
that can do something with that, probably more so than
some other teams. So you know, if you look at
Hunter greens underl like the statcast page is metrics, it's
it's very good except in exit below and hard hit rate.
And he doesn't get a ton of ground balls. The
reason he doesn't get a ton of ground balls he
likes to pitch up in the zone. Why does he
(54:02):
like to pitch up in the zone. Because most guys
cannot handle one hundred up in the zone. It's a
tough pitch to handle. A lot. He beats a lot
of good major league hitters because he throws one hundred
miles an hour and he put and he puts it
near the top of the zone where it's still a strike,
but you want to swing at it. Elite hitters can
handle that. And when an elite hitter, let's say a
(54:24):
show Hey Otani or even a Mookie Bets or a
Freddie Friedman or Will Smith or or a Max Muntzi
or a taoscar Hernandez cat gets a hold of one
hundred at the top of the zone, where does that
ball end up in the seats, in the in the crowd.
That's where one hundred miles an hour up ends up
with a guy that can square it up. The thing is,
(54:47):
for Hunter Green, a lot of teams don't have six
or seven guys that can square that pitch up. The
Dodgers have six or seven guys that can square up
one hundred miles hour four steamer and put it in
the seats. And that's why when I see his hard
hit percentage and his exit be low, being in the
bottom twenty percent of Major League Baseball, but his numbers
being so good, what does that tell me? Well, he's
(55:09):
gonna blow that by a lot of people, a lot
of players. It's gonna get, you know, and he's not
giving up many base runners. You're not gonna really string
hits together against Hunter Green. What you can do, though,
is catch up to one hundred up and then put
it eight rows deep in the seat and all of
a sudden you have a couple of runs. Team total
is like over three and a half minus one forty
minus one forty five. Kind of I'm kind of gonna
(55:32):
be surprised if the Dodgers don't get to four runs here.
And also, just if you want to talk about the
game total or if you like the Reds at all,
I'm almost gonna be a little bit surprised if the
game totals doesn't go over, because I do think the
Reds are gonna have to score some runs to stay
in this game. So if you like the Reds, I
think you have to like the over a little bit.
Like I'm just not seeing like a two to one
(55:53):
type game, which I guess is a statement because of course,
Blake Snell Hunter Green like they're both really good pitchers.
Snell has been great of late Tokyo Braindon pointed out
that there might be some runs late to be had
off the Dodgers bullpen. I don't disagree with that either,
So I think the best way to play it, TV,
I kind of agree with you first five. If you
don't like the money line, maybe like the over and
(56:14):
the first five being one and a half that seems
very low. That's basically a bluepan of blast, and you're there,
and that's probably gonna happen. I wouldn't be surprised if
if you get two times through the order against Hunter
Green in those first couple of innings, like someone's gonna
hit one pretty far, and if it goes out of
the ballpark, you might have that first five over. So
I'm with you there, TV, go ahead.
Speaker 3 (56:36):
It can one hundred mile an hour. Have you seen
how have you seen Otani's barrel speed? My god, he
swings up best.
Speaker 2 (56:42):
That's what I'm talking about.
Speaker 1 (56:44):
Yeah, versus guys fastballs too, and that's what Green throws.
I do want to point out that for some reason,
Cincinnati's decided Zach Lyttel will be the starter for Game
two kind of surprised me as well. As Abbott and
Lodolo have pitched. Maybe he's just gonna pitch couple innings
as maybe an opener, and then Abbot or Lodello will
come in after that. But that was a little bit
(57:06):
of a surprise this morning, and then Singer has been
pretty solid all year along too, so interesting how they're
setting that up. Keep that in mind tomorrow that Hottel
will be starting, but we don't know how long he'll
be going, and he's a flagball pitcher. I guess pretty good.
Speaker 3 (57:23):
I think the Reds are in big trouble. I mean,
they're five hundred baseball team, they don't belong in the playoffs.
They're in big trouble in my opinion. But I said
the same thing about Max Muntsey, and I said the
same thing about the Brewers, and look what happened to
both of them. Brewers had the best record in MLB
ninety seven wins.
Speaker 2 (57:43):
So chat risen waving the Chat points out, Yeah, that
I think the Dodgers got to Green last time they
saw him, which is probably about a month ago, and
it was a similar type thing where I think they
got him for like five or six runs over five innings.
I'll have to go back and digging to that game
a little bit further. I'm sure that a couple of
those balls left the ballpark. So TV you settled on
(58:07):
Dodgers first five money line for the parlay, Brian, can
we get a price on that.
Speaker 1 (58:11):
Minus one eighty? We're eating a little bit of chalk today.
Speaker 2 (58:15):
Yeah, that's okay, I mean it's that's that's the thing
like the three teamer makes it a little bit easier
to get action on some of these, you know, sides
that you might not necessarily want to lay it on.
What about the Yankees? What do you what do you
see in for a price?
Speaker 1 (58:29):
Yankies were minus one thirty and my Detroit under team
total was minus one twenty five.
Speaker 2 (58:35):
All right, so let's run. So we are at the
end of the show, pretty pretty thorough breakdown on all
all four games. I think we gave out a lot
of info, probably more so for you to make your
own decision if that's through oute you want to go,
if you want our place, Uh, give us give us
that promo code one more time, Brian.
Speaker 1 (58:53):
Yeah, bases ninety nine. You'll get any any one of
us all the way through the World Series for all
ninety nine dollars, which was originally one forty nine. So
that's that's a pretty good savings. And uh, we are
putting out, as was mentioned earlier, all of our baseball
players the rest of the way will be for nine dollars,
(59:14):
I believe, but.
Speaker 3 (59:17):
Aside from.
Speaker 1 (59:19):
Thirty five, so any five percent we have, it's definitely.
If we have one five percent, that's you. You're probably
better off getting all the way through. But I'm sure
we'll have more than that, so we'll see how it goes.
It's good, good time to get our package for the
rest of the time.
Speaker 3 (59:36):
And to mention today's five dollars Tuesdays, well, so we're
all going to have a playout. I'm sure for these
MLB or Brian and Adam do football, so they might
have a football play but five dollars Tuesday today, and
we all put free plays up too, So go to
wagertalk dot com and click the free plays page to see.
Speaker 2 (59:55):
What we got all right, before we sign off the
parlay one more time, Brian Leonard is gonna go with
Tigers under team total under three and a half in
the early game. That's Tiger's team total under three and
a half for the full game. I'm gonna go with
the Yankees on the money line for the full game. Tokyo.
Brandon is gonna go Dodgers first five money line. That
(01:00:17):
parlay plays plus three ninety five, and even with the
not hitting one last week, we are still ahead on
the season. On the parlay, hopefully we can bring that
energy into the playoffs and cash a couple of these.
As long as there's gonna be four games a day,
I think we can probably do a parlay. We may
have to think of something else when we get later,
but this week, you know, at least the next two
(01:00:38):
days we'll get one out. And who said we couldn't
do an hour show with only four games? We still
went over.
Speaker 3 (01:00:46):
When we have Adam, we never have a problem.
Speaker 2 (01:00:51):
Hey, you can do it by an Actually we.
Speaker 3 (01:00:55):
Probably all talked about the same today.
Speaker 2 (01:00:58):
Well, listen, we're making We're making package is on the
coupon codes on the fly here. You know, I wasn't
expected we had plenty. But no, I'm glad the hour
we didn't even need to have, like you know, we
didn't even need to have Tokyo Brandon like go into
like story time or do like like turn it into
a talent show. We did our show. We got it
(01:01:18):
was perfect. Yeah, So no, I'm fired up for tomorrow
hopefully hopefully all these games split and then we've got
four games on Thursday. Who knows, but yeah, it was
a great show. Hopefully this, you know, is hopefully everyone
is ready to go for the first day of the
postseason and we'll be back tomorrow nine am to do
(01:01:39):
it all over again. So have a great day everyone.
Basis ninety nine is the coupon code get you the
full playoffs for any of the three of us and
five dollars Tuesday. As always, we'll see you guys again
in the morning.
Starting the game. Starting the broadcast, guys.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
All right, guys, welcome in. It is time for Total
Basis Playoff Edition. The Major League Baseball Playoffs start today.
Missed you guys yesterday. Didn't really know what to do
with myself at nine am without a show. But we're
back for the rest of the week. So we've got
playoff games the next three days, and then on Friday
for Friday show, we'll talk about Saturday's games because by
(00:27):
Thursday night we'll know all of the matchups for Saturday's games.
So we're with you the rest of the week. Before
we get in. We got four games. We're gonna cover
all four of them before we get into the four
games as we sort of let people file in. I
just want to talk about the playoffs in general because
I used to I used to be the guy that
was like, well, you're never gonna make any money betting
(00:47):
the Major League Baseball playoffs. It's there's not a ton
of value and it's a lot tougher to do. However,
I went back and looked all three of us made
money in the playoffs last year, so we all had
plus units. I believe the three of us combined for
forty sixty six units. And I actually went back and
(01:08):
looked at my results the last couple of years in
the playoffs, and I actually so, I've made a couple
of I've updated my take on this, and I want
to see if you guys agree, disagree, or have anything
to throw in there. I think the new format has
so two things. One, I think the new format has
created more betting opportunities for an obvious reason, there's more
(01:29):
more teams, more games, and if you give us more
days where there's four games, there's it's likely we're going
to be able to find one winner. The other thing
is baseball popularity has dipped so much during the regular season,
but the playoffs are as popular as ever, and I
think that that kind of speaks to the new format
where suddenly you get this influx a very uninformed money
(01:53):
that was not there all year. And so I almost
think I'll go to you, Brian Leonard, it is the
play I've almost think the playoffs are more betible than
they've ever been, and I'm excited for the next month.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
Yeah, I feel that way. In the professional professional playoffs.
One of the reasons I like it is you don't
have to worry about motivation, because all teams are motivated
once they get to the playoffs. We talked about this
all year long with certain teams, you know, Detroit obviously,
the Dodgers, the Padres, so we know what we're going
(02:25):
to get. And the playoffs, if you've noticed, the lines
are the totals are lower, and that's because every game
is treated obviously like a playoff game, and so you're
going to get your best relievers out there on a
regular basis as opposed to your garbage guys, and you're
using your top three starters. So I love the playoffs.
(02:48):
I love the hockey playoffs, NBA playoffs. It's the easiest
time to win in the NBA is in the NBA
playoffs because you know who's coming up and how good
the teams are, and you know that's that's why they
made us so much harder to win first quarter, in
first half in the NBA playoffs. So I got to
do is take the team and who lost the first game
and that come back and just continue to roll that over.
(03:10):
So yeah, I'm excited about the playoffs. And as you mentioned,
Ralph Michaels was nice enough to send that to us
in the back end today and I had just place
down here in Florida, and I see how the back
end gets to work a little bit while I'm down here.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
Five dollars Tuesday. Today, guys, I have a five dollars
play up. And also we mentioned this on the last show,
but since football started wayger Talk is allowing us to
sell our MLB plays for nine dollars anything except for
a five percent play. So stay tuned. We're all going
to have probably a free play up today, and we
(03:46):
all should have a play up for five dollars, whether
it's baseball or another sport. My baseball MLB five dollars
play has been up since yesterday, so go grab it
and grab these guys plays as well. Regarding the playoffs, yes,
one thing that's good about the playoffs is, like Webbs
was mentioned, the teams are not really resting people. There's
(04:12):
no tomorrow now. During the regular season, you have months
and months ahead, you worry about guys' schedule schedules, you
worry about guys fatiguing. But in the playoffs it's it's
it's balls to the wall. There's no fatigue, there's no nothing.
The pitchers do tend to come out earlier in the
playoff games because coaches managers want to perhaps use them
(04:36):
two times in a series, so they're they're generally not
going to stress their starters out through seven innings in
a playoff game. So that's one thing to keep in
mind if you're betting strikeouts or outs props. Most outs
props I lost two years ago. I learned the hard way.
A lot of my outs props lost because pitchers were
(04:57):
coming out before the fifth inning, and it was because
managers wanted to use them in Game four. Now, in
the wild Card we only have three games, so that's
really not relevant. But when it goes to five to
seven game series, things like that, a manager might want
to use his picture three times in the seven game series,
so he will maybe take a picture out early. So
(05:20):
something to keep in mind.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
I disagree with that somewhat, but I do think you're
right about guys coming out early. I think managers just
don't want want the other team seeing a guy for
a third time through. And of course you have the
famous example of Kevin Cash taking Blake Stell out and
he's just like, what, like, excuse me. But I do
think that there's you're gonna and this is where it.
(05:43):
We'll talk about this a lot over the next week
and two. You really have to handicap the manager in
the playoffs more than you than you ever do the
rest of the season, very much. I think getting inside
the manager's head and knowing how they might manage something.
We'll tell you kind of what you you know, you
if you want to be on that team if if not,
But you're right TV some of them and listen, some
(06:06):
of them do it to their detriment all of a sudden.
It's like I gotta I gotta outthink the room because
it's the playoffs and sometimes that's just not necessary. That's
the type of stuff we're going to talk this show. Yeah,
I mean, yeah, you'll.
Speaker 3 (06:19):
Have really decisions in the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
David, You'll have your chance on this show to talk
about him. Uh. Listen, guys in the comments, keep the
comments coming. We're gonna go right down the row. So
the the OCD folks in the crowd are going to
be through because we're going right in order morning tonight,
starting with Tiger's Guardians, going right to the night. So
all the for the for the guys in the chat
that every day are like wish you didn't bounce around
(06:43):
so much. Guess what, We're not doing it in the
playoffs right in order, so don't worry about that. But
I still want to hear what you guys have to say,
so keep firing off in the comments. And I think
wager Talk management might have messed up with the nine
dollars thing, because, as I said, the baseball playoffs are
the most popular game games of the year. But hey,
I guess we're selling them for nine bucks, so that
(07:04):
benefits everyone. So we'll keep that going. And today five dollars,
because of course it's five dollars Tuesday. All right, We've
got enough people in here. Now let's get right into it.
We are starting the day. Can't believe I'm staying this,
Brian Leonard. We are starting the day in Cleveland, Ohio,
because the Guardians are not only in the playoffs, but
they're hosting a playoff game, something that I just didn't
(07:27):
think was even remotely possible this season, even at the
beginning of the season when they weren't fifteen games behind
the leader in the division. So Tiger's Guardians, they absolutely owned.
The Guardians actually owned the Tigers in September, but it's
a clean slate. We talked about this the last couple
of weeks. The Tigers get in, are they dangerous? And
do you like them here?
Speaker 1 (07:49):
I did want to point out that it's a little
bit different this year because the home team is going
to get all three games because they got to get
these three games in in three days, so there's not
going to be any traveling, So that Cleveland being able
to outlast Detroit and get that home advantage is really
(08:11):
even more important than what we what, at least I
thought at the time. And also, as I mentioned, these
are lower scoring games, so every run counts. And you
mentioned Cleveland being the first game on the board, Well,
Cleveland and Detroit, whoever wins this series is going to
be the first game on the board just about every
(08:32):
time because we've got games being played in Chicago, New York,
and Los Angeles, the three big media centers, so all
the people want to be able to watch those games,
all the local fans. So yeah, unfortunately the Detroit Cleveland
series gets first crack every day, but hey, no, who
cares as long as you get to play the games.
(08:53):
Both these teams are very happy to be here. Schooball
the left to going against Williams. But by the way,
there's eight teams going today. Five of those teams are
starting lefties, including the Bosston New York game, in which
they've got two lefties going in that one school Ball
the lefty against Williams. Already, this is starting to be
a very familiar thing. Is these two seems to be
(09:16):
going against each other a lot lately. We're looking at
Detroit roughly about a one sixty favorite here, total of six,
and that is the lowest total on the board. Let
me check the real quick the park factors. Progressive Field,
the wind is blowing in, it should be nothing different
than normal Dodger Stadium blowing out slightly. There's going to
(09:40):
be point, excuse me, three percent runs less than a
normal game. The Yankees blowing left right there will be
minus eight percent, and Wrigley Field blowing dead dead end
from center field eleven percent less runs in Wrigley Field
as you would normally get based on the wind direction
for today. Scoobl on Williams. I took a look at
(10:04):
this series. Scooble is, as I mentioned about a one
sixty favorite here, Detroit is actually favored in the series
in about the one twenty range, even though they're only
going to be favored in one of the three games,
and Cleveland has seen Schooble, they've performed well against School.
School has pitched well against them, but Cleveland has fared well.
(10:26):
If you take a look at I went back, the
team total for Detroit in this game is three and
a half, and in a game.
Speaker 4 (10:34):
Where you only expect to score six runs, I think
that's a pretty nice bet on the under in that.
If I went back and looked at the last thirteen
Cleveland games they've held Cleveland games at home, they've held
the opposition to under three and a half runs in
nine of those thirteen games, and all of them so
(10:56):
far into September, they've been terrific. Right now, that Detroit
team total is under three and a half at minus
one twenty five. And also Cleveland has held Detroit under
four of the six games in Cleveland in this month,
also under the total, So they've done well. And you know,
we usually talk about Cleveland against Detroit and especially the
(11:19):
left handers. Cleveland's not really built to be good against
left handers. But my roommate for this week, Rob Michaels,
has pointed out that Cleveland is fifteen and five versus
lefties since July seventh, and including a seven and oh run,
so Cleveland against lefties is looking pretty good. Cleveland's at
(11:39):
two and a half of one team total, Detroit three
and a half on their team total, so I think
you're either better off playing Detroit team total under or
Cleveland over two and a half. I'm going to go
with the Detroit team total under here under three and
a half, and that's probably my one of my best
bets on this show here, So we'll go with Detroit
(12:02):
to team total under three and a half minus one
twenty five.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
I would totally agree with that reason being Cleveland has
every advantage here except starting pitching. Cleveland's bats are are
hotter than Detroit's bats right now. Cleveland's bullpen much better
than Detroit's in my opinion, Sorry, my necklace is coming off,
but starting pitching. Actually, Scooble is a top two pitcher
(12:29):
in Major League Baseball. Everybody knows that. So taking a
look at Gavin Williams, now, this is one of the
pitching starters that surprised me. I thought they were going
to start Tanner Biby, but then it came out Williams,
and I'm like, why would they do that?
Speaker 2 (12:43):
I dug a little deeper.
Speaker 3 (12:44):
And I found out why they did it. Gavin Williams
against the Detroit Tigers one hundred and twenty five at
bats against one hundred one sixty eight average against in
a five h two OPS. Amazing numbers and a huge
sample size, So that's exactly the reason they did it.
I would say game total under maybe first five, under
(13:05):
three and a half because Scooble has pretty good numbers
against these guys too. But I don't think you can
take Detroit at this number because the only advantage they
have in this game is Scooble. But given the stats
that I just gave you right now, that kind of
negates that advantage there. In my opinion, I think Cleveland
is a live dog here, and coming towards the end
(13:28):
of the season, they were much more on fire than Detroit.
Detroit just kind of fizzled out and backed into the playoffs.
So momentum is a tricky thing in the playoffs though,
because they've had some time off, they're regrouping, so momentum
doesn't really mean all that much. But man, the Tigers
are the real Tigers, the first half Tigers or the
(13:48):
second half Tigers. I tend to believe it's the second
half Tigers, So Guardians would be the only way I
would go here. A Detroit team total under perhaps or
a Guardian's plus one and a half some like that
would be how I would go.
Speaker 2 (14:04):
Yeah, I think the reason that they want to match
Gavin Williams up with Schooble is because Gavin Williams is
the more likely guy if he's on where he can
throw zeros up like, so that's where it's like, by
the I think is capable of giving you a nice effort,
a good start, But if you're looking at someone that
essentially needs to Outdueltreek Schooble, and Gavin Williams has this
(14:27):
good stuff his like his good stuff can can wipe
out a lineup and can match Schooble, which I guess
the thought process here is while he's you know, he's
going to go out and shut down the Guardians. At
least that's what the books are saying. The total in
this game is six, so they don't think there's gonna
be much offense. And the other thing with Gavin Williams,
(14:48):
which I think makes it a little bit easier to
use him as your game one starter is if he
doesn't have it, you can bail on him quicker because
like he has been somewhat of an like all or
nothing type guy. When he's on, you know, he's given
you six or seven good innings when he's off, and
when he's off attends to be location related, putting guys
on walking guys. I think the Guardians might be able
(15:10):
to say, you know what, we got to go in
a different direction. We're going to go to the bullpen.
And then it's really like a inning by inning type
thing where it's like, where are we at in the game.
How many resources do we want to burn here? Because
here's the thing. In a three game series, for the while,
like three game series will they will burn through every
reliever they need to burn through if it means they
(15:32):
can get a win. However, if it's a different situation,
let's say all of a sudden, Guardians are down for nothing,
it's a totally different game plan, totally different approach because
you now have to start to prepare to have your
best guys in game two, in game three. That's why
these three game series, or really any of these playoffs
series are so intriguing because it can change on a
(15:54):
moment's notice. But I think that's why you see Gavin
Williams here, because I think he gives them the best
chance to match Scua Bowl and get to the bullpens,
which actually the Guardians have quite the advantage if you
look at this series, like, not only has their bullpen
been better, but in the head to head games against Detroit,
the Guardian's bullpen has been significantly better so far this year,
(16:20):
Guardians bullpen against the Tigers one point seventy five era,
Tiger's bullpen against the Guardians four point one two. And
then you know, you talk about Tokyo Brandon, you talk
about what Tigers are we going to see? Well, yeah,
like the last month, the Guardians are the best record
in baseball. The Tigers are the worst record in the
American League, right like, so you know, I my personal
(16:42):
thought process is you let the Tigers in, not the Guardians.
The Guardians didn't let him in, but the Astros did,
and now they have new life. That scares me in
terms of wanting to fade them. But I don't think
you can discount the fact that this team has just
not been the same team since the beginning of the year,
and the thing that made the Tigers, if you go
(17:02):
back to last year's playoffs, they were very No one
gave the Tigers a chance really in last year's playoffs,
at least many people did not. The reason that they
were able to win that series against the Astros, and
the reason they were able to get as far as
they were able to get in the playoffs was aj
Hinch's ability to mix and match the relievers and sort
of play this nine in in game where he had
(17:25):
a plan for every inning and he really mixed and matched.
I don't know that he can do it with this
year's roster. I just don't know that this relief unit
or this group of pitchers is as good as last year's.
And so that gives me a little bit of concern
for the Tigers. With a lot of what you guys
are saying in the chat, and I agree with sort
of both of you. I don't know if I can
(17:47):
I certainly can't lay a dollar sixty here, but I
don't know if I have enough to go against the Tigers.
So I'm likely out on this one. Brian, was that
your part, I are we going to do the parlay
for this show. I guess we are for a game
you want.
Speaker 1 (18:01):
Yeah, yeah, we could do it if we're gonna if
we're gonna do the part, I put that down for me.
Detroit under the nine excuse me, three and a half
team total minus one twenty five.
Speaker 3 (18:10):
Who's Detroit gonna start in game two? I mean, we
can talk about it tomorrow, but are they gonna start
Montero or here's.
Speaker 2 (18:18):
The other thing too. I don't think I truly believe this,
and especially like someone like Hinch, I really don't think
these guys are looking at game two. Yeah, I think
this game. I think in a three game series, this
game is so important that I believe they might have
their game two starter in their head and you might
(18:39):
not see them. But I think, based on how Game
one Ghost is what teams a lot of times do
with games.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
Cleveland already listed Vibe as their Game two.
Speaker 1 (18:49):
I'm sure he's gonna I'm assuming it's gonna be Casey.
Speaker 3 (18:53):
Mice Game three. Though Cleveland's in trouble because Cony's gonna
be their starter. It's not good news for them.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
But anyway, I don't know that. I don't know if
he would be their.
Speaker 3 (19:04):
Starter for it's already listed.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
Yeah, but this is what I'm saying, they can change.
Just because the starter is listed by MLB dot Com
means absolutely nothing. These these things are going to change
based on They're just the subject to change. I truly
believe no manager has Game three planned out yet. I
think the emphasis is winning Game one and then they'll
see how how it goes.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
The Tigers this season, though, if they lose a Scooball game,
they're in big trouble. That's that's that's what I think.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
Yeah, I do agree with that. I think if the
Tigers lose this game, I wouldn't be surprised if the
Guardians wrap this up into I think losing today would
be devastating for them.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
I would say in the past, a lot of these
games that we thought were going to go three ended
up being a sweep. So yeah, it's it's something that
if if you've got a chance to play your team
and you want them to win the series, just go
for the sweep on it. Because you get those two
wins and it's over, and that's something that has paid off.
(20:07):
It doesn't mean it's going to pay off again this year.
But still that these first games are very important, and
as was pointed out by Brandon, if Detroit happens to
lose this game, then they're in some tough tough spot
because Cleveland will have the starting pitcher edge probably on them.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
And almost like you're thinking too much, Adam like, well, yeah,
that's the point of the show. We're trying to break
down the games.
Speaker 3 (20:35):
We're going deep, guys, this isn't this is a baseball
nerd show. This is not a picks show.
Speaker 2 (20:40):
So all right, and yeah, we only got four games,
so we gotta you gotta give them the extra extra
rub here or else. We're not going to have an
hour show. So let's get into the next game. I
thought we did a thorough breakdown there. Let's try to
do that with Padres Cubs. Uh. This is a very
very intriguing series. To me. I don't read a ton
(21:01):
of just like I read what I can. I only
have so many hours in the day. But someone sent
me a good article from the Player's Tribune that Pete
crow Armstrong wrote a couple of days ago. It's worth
a read if you can find it out there. He
kind of was. He wrote about his second half struggles
and about like going into the playoffs, October baseball, how
(21:21):
much this means to the city of Chicago got me
fired up. I was ready to go, you know, go
play after reading that. And now, of course we've got
Cubbies at home, and October Baseball could be short lived
for them if they don't win here, because as we know,
you're in the playoffs, but these series go quick, and
you lose today and suddenly it's your life is on
(21:42):
the line tomorrow. Very interesting game one right here, probably
in my opinion, this might be the best game of
the day, Like, this is the most interesting game of
the day for me, because you have the Padres as
an underdog on the road at Wrigley. It should be
in a tremendous atmosphere at Rigging. They're going to end
up having to go with Matt Boyd because of course,
(22:03):
Kate Horton might have been the guy in this game,
but now he's hurt. And Nick Pivetta has been great,
but the Padres Brian Leonard have not been quite the
same team on the road as they have at home.
So how do you look at this one? Padres Cubs,
Pavetta Boyd? All right, do you have a play here.
Speaker 1 (22:19):
Yeah, we're looking at basically the White Sox have been
met up a little bit. They're up to about one
on twenty three or so with a total of seven.
Matthew Boyd did a press conference yesterday and it was
pretty touching. He said he'd gone his first eight years
without making it to the playoffs and he's so excited
to be here. And he said his grandfather was always
(22:43):
a Chicago Cubs fan, and I believe he'd passed away,
and he was tearing up a little bit when he
was talking about it, but he gets the call here
at home. It was somewhat I was somewhat surprised with
the opening number on the series being the Cubs minus
one fifteen, and of course it's up to about one
point thirty now. Chicago getting all three of those at home,
(23:05):
I thought was a big advantage in this. And plus
they're hitters. They're starting to get their hitters back, and
we'll see if they continue to play well. But this
is a team. Both these teams have been basically tread
and water for a while. Now we'll see if somebody
can is able to turn it right on. But Pavetta's
flyball pitcher, but As I mentioned before, the wind is
(23:27):
blowing straight in here, so that's going to make his
start even better because that's usually if Nick Pavetta is
the last few seasons he gets in trouble with home runs.
Other than that, the guy's been a great pitcher, and
as I said, for him to be around a free
agent for as long as he was, San Diego made
(23:48):
a great deal. And if you take a look at
some of the other signings in the offseason, you got
to say Pavetta is probably the best pitching signing for
a starter, and San Diego did a really nice job
on that. But do I trustee of the one of
these teams. They're so hard to predict at this point.
I think the line is somewhat cheap with Boyd, but
(24:09):
we've talked in the past about those because of his
injuries he's had, He's already way past where he's pitched
the last two years, and now, as you mentioned, without Horton,
he has to get even more innings here in the playoffs.
This could be one of those where if it gets
to five innings or in the four innings, they may
(24:31):
pull the plug on them early and let the bullpen
come around. San Diego should feel pretty good about Paveta
going deeper in this game. So I don't know which
way to take It's the line is about where I
made it, so I'm probably not going to get involved
in this one.
Speaker 3 (24:48):
Five dollars Tuesday, guys, we all have plays up for
five bucks free plays as well. Go to wajytalk dot
com to see what we have up. Mine's already up
by the way. Yeah, these two teams. I have these
two teams matched up less than a point apart. This
is the tightest matchup of all the playoff matchups, according
(25:10):
to my numbers the eye tests. Padres have such a
plethora of talent, but they're underperform year after year. I
was surprised to look at the records and see that
Chicago has two more wins than the Padres. That kind
of surprised me because Padres are more talented in my opinion,
But and Padres have one of the best bullpens, but
(25:31):
they underperform always and I don't know why. So Paveta
and Boyd looking at their stats against the batters they're
facing today, they both have been rocked pretty good and
it's a good sample size, so my inclination would be
go to the over because we've got two power lineups here,
but we also have two good bullpens. So hmm, kind
(25:55):
of gridlocked here. Every stat I look at that makes
me lean this way, I find another death that makes
me look this way. So I'm totally good lucked in this.
There's no way I'm going to bet this game. I'm
probably not gonna bet this series at all because I
got these teams just so dead.
Speaker 2 (26:09):
Even Brian, can I get my Wrigley Field weather report
from you? I pretty much ask every time we have
a Cubs game.
Speaker 1 (26:18):
Yeah, the wind's blowing directly and home runs shoot me
down fifteen percent, doubles and triples plus one percent, singles
down seven percent, and total runs down eleven percent.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
Yeah. I guessed as much when I saw the total
that there might be some wind blowing in. It doesn't,
I gotta be honest, though, it doesn't totally put me
off the over. Here at seven flat, I kind of
go back to, you know, so what Tokyo Brandon said, Yeah,
you do have two lineups that are capable. I think
you have two pitchers. I'm not as high as the
(26:53):
market seems to be on Paveta. So that's like, I
don't know if it's gonna put me on the Cubs
per se, but like, I'm not high as high in
the market as Paveta. He's got a the the exit
v LO numbers and the barrel rate numbers and the
hard hit being in the bottom fifteen percent is concerning
to me. Now, he doesn't really get many ground balls,
So if this was a scenario where the wind was
(27:15):
blowing out at Wrigley, I'd probably like the Cubs a
lot more for that reason. I think the wind blowing
in definitely helps him out a little bit. On the
other side, I don't mind Boyd, but Brian's made this
point well over the last couple of months. You know,
He's really hammered the point home on the show, and
I think it's it's worth noting that the innings may
(27:36):
have to start to catch up with him a little bit.
I agree with with Brian in the sense that I
think Counsel could go to the bullpen early. I'm not
exactly sure that's a great thing. That's the one thing
this cut I don't It's not that the Cubs of
a bad bullpen. I just don't know if I trust
the guys that are coming out of that bullpen in
(27:57):
a spot of this magnitude. I actually don't know if
I trust the Padres relievers in the in Wrigley on
the road, Whereas, like you look at some of the
bullpen numbers from the Padres over the last month, month
and a half, Mason Miller has been lights out, Suarez
has been lights out. They clearly have the better bullpen.
But you know what, I've watched Mason Miller a lot,
and when he when he gets a little too juiced up,
(28:19):
he hasn't pitched in many big games in his career.
I think it's worth noting, like he spent most of
his time in Oakland, how many big games are he pitching? Zero?
And then he's pitched in a couple with San Diego.
But there's been a couple of times where he's been
on the road in a big spot, he's a little
too juiced up. Suddenly he doesn't throw a strike, and
then it's like that hundred hundred and one mile an
(28:40):
hour fastball a little less effective. He might groove one.
I go back to ticket that I cashed earlier this year.
He's on the road against the Marlins. They put a
little pressure on him. Kyle Stowers, it's a grand slam.
I'm not saying that that's what's going to happen here,
but I think that just saying, oh, well, the Padres
have this lockdown bullpen, so they're a guarantee to go
get nine tough outs at Wrigley against this Cubs lineup,
(29:03):
I think you maybe need to you know, I don't
know that that's just a guarantee. On the flip side,
I certainly don't think that the Cubs bullpen stringing together
four innings worth of outs as a guarantee either. So
I still kind I kind of like the over here
at seven flat, it doesn't take much to get to seven.
You get to three, three, you're free rolling. The weather
(29:27):
is a little bit. It's just annoying that we don't
have a little bit of a breeze out. But again,
seven flat makes me kind of like the over I
think you're gonna have. So let's get a chat common
in here, because I agree with this. Wrigley's very tough
parked to homer in when the wind blows in. I
don't know that you need home runs to get to seven, like,
(29:50):
just because it's a hard park to hit a home
run in. I don't think it means that these lineups
couldn't get a timely hit or put up a crooked number.
And that's the thing with some of these totals you're
going to see in the playoffs. Seven's not that it's
not that hard to get to sit like three to
three and all of a sudden you can't you can't
lose the over. I think it's a little light. I
(30:11):
still would have made it seven and a half go ahead, Bryan.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
Yeah. I did want to point out I'm not enamored
with the Cup's bullpen, but they've got a lot of
veterans Kittridge, Keller, Phil Barr, Pomerance, Rogers. They've got guys
who've been around for a long time, and so it's
not like Plunchy is one of their co closers right now,
and he's young, he's only twenty five years old. But
(30:34):
the other guys have been around the box, so I
don't think it'll affect them as much as it will
be some young players. And I did get a message
from my new secretary, Ralph Michaels, that you were talking
about a package for all of us for okay, Okay,
there's okay, so I guess it's coming through. But you
(30:57):
could save fifty dollars on our playoff packages ninety nine
dollars to the one forty nine, so it goes by
bases ninety nine, so I guess they're not altogether, but
you can buy them separately bases ninety nine and save
yourselves fifty bucks from each of us and help by
all three of them. So we'll get you some profit
(31:18):
as was mentioned about forty six units of profit last year.
And you've watched this all season long, and you know
we know what we're doing with baseball, so yeah, join
us with the playoffs. And I do have a excuse me,
a four percent up for five dollars on today's card,
and I'll be putting up a free play later on.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
And it bases ninety nine is what exactly? Can you
just clarify what that is again.
Speaker 1 (31:43):
Versus ninety nine? Basically, instead of getting our playoff package
for one hundred and forty nine, or each of our
playoff packages for one hundred and forty nine, you get
them for ninety nine. So for two ninety seven you
can get all three of our packages.
Speaker 3 (31:58):
Go to whichever cap you like and use bases ninety
nine to get about thirty percent off our MLB playoffs package.
Speaker 2 (32:07):
Basically, right, forty seven point forty seven point five one units.
That's what the three of us combined to make in
the playoffs last year.
Speaker 3 (32:17):
Basically, all of us made a profit last year in
MLB playoffs with the one you trust, and each one
of us were offering a playoff package bases ninety nine
ninety nine bucks for the entire MLB Playoffs until through
the World Series. Yeah, okay, this was just a second
(32:39):
comment on the Cubs Padres. Right, one thing, just a
quick note. Padres are a very poor road team, and
the Cubs are very good at home. So Cubs are
fifty and thirty one at home, Padres thirty eight and
forty three. I think that's the only team. No, the
Padres and the Reds are the two teams that have
losing road records here. So yeah, Padres just underperform. Such
(33:02):
a hard team to trust. But dang, you're so talented.
Speaker 2 (33:06):
Yeah, no, you're right about that. And and here's the
thing with the Padres, I think when they're when they're
pricing the Padres, I'm gonna get a lot of credit
for the bullpen. It's it's it's widely known that they
have the best bullpen in the week. And if you
look at a lot of the stats, like if you
were just to pull up bullpen stats, you're going to
see the Padres at the top of that list. Everyone knows, Yeah,
(33:28):
everyone knows Mason Miller is a beast. Everyone knows Robert
Sorez is great. My whole thing is this, Like I
you put them in this environment, I do think it's
a little bit of an equalizer. And then you look
at what the Padres have done at Pecco as opposed
to what they've done on the road. I think, I think,
(33:49):
even what my numbers make this game, I don't fully
trust because I'm gonna I'm gonna bump the Cubbies a
little bit here. I'm gonna bump the Cubbies a little
bit here to being at home just standard. But I'm
gonna definitely downgrade the pirate of the Padres for being
on the road because I think, a the numbers show
that they've been worse on the road, and b those
(34:09):
big time relievers, like listen, you get Mason Miller on
the Mount at pet Cole Park game on the line,
He's probably gonna throw three pitches by you. The whole
park's gonna be behind him. It's gonna be good morning,
good afternoon, good night on the road. I think the
outs are tougher, and so I do think that might
give a little bit of an edge to the Cubs
if you're looking on a side bet here.
Speaker 3 (34:30):
I was just surprised going through. I didn't realize the
Cubs won that many games. It didn't seem like they did,
but they did. Pretty good team, talented team.
Speaker 2 (34:41):
Very interesting game. I'm not gonna I want to see
how the other two play out in terms of our
discussions on them, but I'll I may circle back to
that one. We'll see. Okay, let's move on, Red Sox Yankees.
What a treat. Some of these matchups are wild Card
round and we're getting Guardians Tigers, We're getting Red Sox
Yankees division rivals. You love to see that another chapter
(35:05):
if you will, in the Red Sox Yankees rivalry. We're
gonna get to We're gonna get to see the crashouts
of one of these fan bases over the next couple
of days. So that should be great for neutral people
that don't care about either team. But it's Garrett Crochet,
It's Max Freed Yankee Stadium, Red Sox Yankees, Brian Leonard,
you get involved in this one.
Speaker 1 (35:27):
Yeah, I may be Crochet going for the Boston Freed
for the Yankees. The Yankees are about a one thirty
favorite or so a total of seven, but I'm more
interested in the series price. We're getting the Yankees right
now in about a one eighty five range. The reason
why I like the Yankees in the series is because
(35:49):
you've got Boston's clearly best pitcher going today, and yet
the Yankees are about a one thirty favorite in the game.
The next two games, if it does get to that point,
will have huge advantages for the Yankees. They've got better
starting pitchers than Boston. Boston's got some young talent, but
(36:10):
these are all young guys that haven't been in this
position before. You take a look at the Yankees, and
they've got Rode down out there. Schlittler has pitched terrific
down the stretch, and the Yankees have that ability where
I know the bullpen struggled early on, but he's pitching
much better now and from a hitting standpoint, Obviously, the
(36:32):
Yankees have the better hitters. They're the better home run hitters.
Boston really doesn't have a lot of home run power.
They had their third baseman who wouldn't leave. Devers was
the guy who they couldn't get to play first base.
He leaves, and if you go back and look, he
was really good in Boston. He was really hot when
he played. And then you also have the Boston rookie
(36:55):
who is no longer there and he's not playing right now.
And those are the two. Really, they're two best hitters
on the season. Bregman started the year great, but he
hasn't hit well in the second half. I've got some
concerns against Boston. Normally, when Boston gets together with the Yankees,
I like to play the underdog in that. I just
think the Yankees right now are so much better than
(37:17):
this current Boston offense. It's you're not going to find
a better discrepancy, a bigger discrepancy other than maybe the
Dodters in the in the Reds from the hitting department.
But the Yankees are much better hitters than Boston is.
They got much better power, and there are playing at home,
and I like the way, the bullpen's coming out, So
(37:37):
I'm not going to get involved in this Game one,
but I do like the Yankees to win this series.
That would be my better bet in this.
Speaker 3 (37:47):
Uh yeah, hard to argue with that, given the fact
that after Crochet, the Red Sox will be putting out
Brian Bao and Lucas Ciliedo's out, So who do they
got after that? Kyle Harrison, I don't know. If this
goes to Game three, they're in trouble. They're in trouble
(38:09):
if this goes to Game three, because the Yankees probably
will not start Will Warren. They'll probably go with Schlitler
over Warren in Game three. But anyways, we're jumping ahead
regarding today's game. This is so great. I love Playoff
Baseball Game ones because you get such good pitching matchup.
We've got Crochet and Free. This is two top ten
(38:30):
MLB pitchers, and if you look how they performed against
the teams they're facing both, you know, as you would expect,
like two twenty averages against the teams they're facing in
like six hundred ops. Is not great, not horrible, but
definitely better than average. Yankees have pretty much every advantage,
(38:52):
but kind of a slight advantage the bullpen, though they
do have quite a big advantage over Boston here, but
the hitting I got the Yankees ranked six where I
got Boston ranked ten, So slight advantage. But overall, Yankees
are the better team. But I like Crochet a little
more than I like Freed, but is a pitching advantage.
(39:13):
This is kind of similar to the Tigers game today.
I like the Tigers starter better, but is just having
a better starter enough to take them No, I don't
think so. I think the books, when they're pricing things
they consider starting pitching. They put a little too much
(39:34):
emphasis on starting pitching sometimes. But given the fact that
I like Crochet better than Freed, I was surprised to
see the Yankees favored here. Something's wacky about this number.
But Boston, if they don't win this game, they're in
deep trouble. I'm not going to bet the game, though,
but I do think the Yankees will probably win.
Speaker 2 (39:57):
I'm going to make a statement that I think people
will disagree with, but listen, hear me out first, because
I'm uh the Yankees are the best team in the
American League. I'm not saying they're going to the World Series, Okay, matchups,
It's hard to string together wins in the playoffs this
right now, and in my opinion is the is the
most talented team in the AL. And listen, the Mariners
(40:21):
have a great team. But I think when you take
everything into account, hitting, pitching, ballpark factors, right like, everything
into account, I think the Yankees are the toughest out
in the AL right now. And the fact that they
get this game at home is massive. I said a
couple of weeks ago, I thought the Red the Red
(40:41):
Sox would be the odd team out in the American League.
The only reason that they weren't is because the Astros
couldn't beat the UH, the Oakland, the West, Sacramento A's
down the stretch right It's the only reason the Red
Sox are still in the playoffs, in my opinion, is
that the Astros couldn't. Now, maybe they would have gotten
in over the time, I'm not sure. But the point is,
(41:01):
the point I'm trying to make with the Red Sox
is they haven't been a playoff team since Roman Anthony
went down. It's Titan CT. I still like the Jas,
but I'm saying that I think the Yankees are the
most talented team. I think when you take this, when
you look at this Yankees team, put them on their
home field. Look at what Max Freed has done over
(41:22):
the past month and a half. Six last seven starts
for Max Freed six and zero, one point five to
five ERA. Like if I don't know, I don't know
that there's another guy right now that I want with
the ball in the playoff game like that I that
I trust more maybe than Max Free. I mean, you
(41:42):
talk about the Blue Jays. I'm not going to go
too far off topic. Who do you want on that
team with the ball right now? That you're like, yeah,
I love this, I love this spot in a playoff game, right,
Who do you want on the Guardians? Gavin Williams? You
know what I'm saying. I'm talking about Look at the
American League. You want Logan Gilbert in there? Like he's
been good, but I also think he's hurt. I'm just saying,
(42:03):
like this Yankees team, Max Freed them at home. Judge,
I know he hasn't been great in the playoffs in
his career, but that that's a small sample that could
obviously change. I think the Yankees are going to be
very tough out. I agree with Brian. I like them
to win this series, and I will make them our
parlay league here. So my parlay league's gonna be Yankees.
(42:23):
Money line. Didn't don't love minus one thirty against Crochet. Listen.
I respect the hell out of Garrett Crochet. He's a
great pitcher. But outside of him here, I just don't
see what the Red Sox have that gives them any
sort of edge in this game. Brian, go ahead.
Speaker 1 (42:36):
Yeah. When I look at the fan Rex Grafts page
for the roster resource they've got over the last fourteen days,
Max Free is the number one pitcher in Major League Baseball,
number one starter, and if you look at the last
seven days from hitting, Aaron Judge is the number one hitter,
and Carlos Stanton Mike Stanton, if you were long ago
(42:58):
like me, he's the ninth best pitcher. So they've got
their three and four hitters are both top ten hitting
right now, and their starting pitcher is the best for
the last fourteen days. It's tough to go against that,
you know, Aaron Judge. As much as we like the
big dumper, Aaron Joaz is probably the most talented hitter
in Major League baseball, at least in the American League,
(43:19):
and he's the hottest hitter in baseball the last week,
anything can happen, and the playoffs are a little bit
different ballgame. But he's coming in here red hot. So
it's hard to go against the Yankees right now. I
think Seattle is the better team. I think they will
win the American League. But you made a great point.
The Yankees are a tough out. They've got the experience,
(43:42):
they've got a lot of depth, and we all know
the changes they made into their bullpen, which are starting
to pay off a little bit right now. So yeah,
one of the reasons why I like the Yankees to
win this series.
Speaker 2 (43:52):
If it does become Seattle Yankees, I'll say this about
that series. The Mariners will have a much tougher time
winning in the Yankee Stadium. The Yankees will have winning
in Seattle. I think that would be the only sort
of you know, thing I would say about that, because
I'm not disagreeing with you the Mariners. I do think
if you were to put rosters bullpen starting pitching, I could,
(44:13):
you know, And obviously I've liked them all year, I've
invested in them, so I hope they win. But like
when I look at like their biggest competition in the
American League, I thought it was going to be the
Blue Jays. But now that you start to see some
of the injuries that they've had and I kind of
look at their rotation, I'm like, I don't know if
that rotation matches up with one of those two point
I'm trying to make here is I think the Yankees
(44:34):
are very talented. I think they're starting to play their
best baseball at the right time. If you go back
to that Marlin series, which was a total disaster for
the Yankees, They're kicking the ball all over the field.
Jash Chishom's thrown it into the fourth row. They're getting beat
I think they got swept in Miami like almost since
that point, it was like it was the low point
(44:54):
of the season for them. The Yankees have really turned
it around. And I don't know that it's they've gotten
the they've deserve for it because they didn't win a division.
There's been other better kind of stories in Major League Baseball.
Is I'll throw this out to both of you, is
it safe to say the Yankees have flown under the
radar A little bit right now, because I just don't
think they're getting the hype they usually get.
Speaker 1 (45:18):
I agree.
Speaker 3 (45:19):
I think that might have to do with the fact
that they didn't win the division number one, and they're
probably the worst fielding team in all of Major League Baseball.
Those two factors probably take them off the radar a little.
But you're right, they are extremely talented. Even after Judge
and Stanton, they still have some decent hitting, which I
(45:41):
didn't expect at the beginning of the season.
Speaker 1 (45:44):
I will point out the Jazz chis and was injured
and I haven't seen if he's playing today or not.
Bad defensive player, but the guy does have a decent bat,
so he's been very good.
Speaker 2 (45:56):
Yeah, listen, the margins are so thin in the playoffs,
especially you get a matchuplake this. We could sit here
and argue all day who's better Crochet or Freed. It's
a very I mean, you can make incredible cases for both,
but I just think if this game got into the bullpens,
I'd rather have the Yankees bullpen on their home field.
That I'm not a huge fan of the group of
Red Sox relievers. And then, of course you're now going
(46:18):
to put them in a tough, high leverage spot in
Yankee Stadium. Priced appropriately probably, but again, we only have
four games to choose from, and for the parlay, I'm
okay with minus one thirty so and I agree with you, Brian.
I think the Yankee series bet is a great bet.
I don't see the Red Sox twenty this series, so yeah,
(46:38):
I will go with the Yankees. And that brings us
to our final game. I think I've tied this out nicely.
We've got thirteen minutes left on the show. One more
game to talk about Tokyo. Brandon is gonna get us
a chance to talk about how Dave Roberts is a
terrible manager. But we're gonna let Brian Leonard go first.
So the nightcap tonight out West Reds, Dodgers, Hunter Green,
(47:00):
Blake Snow. Who do you have here?
Speaker 1 (47:02):
Snell the lefty, Green the righty. We're looking at the
Dodgers about yeah, about a two dollars favorite right now,
with the line total of seven slightly to the over.
If you're looking at the series, the Dodgers are upward
to the three dollars range two eighty to three dollars. Obviously,
the Dodgers have the better pitching, although Hunter Green's been terrific,
(47:28):
He's just been awesome. But he's much better at home
than he is on the road on the season. And
you could actually say that this could be like found
money for the Reds because they weren't expected to be there.
They had fallen back, and you know, the Mets put
him in this position. They didn't win the playoff spot.
(47:50):
The Mets just choked it away. And so Cincinnati comes in,
you know, with no pressure at all on him, and
the Dodgers obviously being the defending champs and all the
money they have in the team, there's a lot more
pressure on the Dodgers. So this first game is very important.
If Cincinnati was to win this game, there'd be a
(48:11):
ton of pressure on the Dodgers after that. And that's
something that I don't want to lay. I have them
laying three dollars as a favorite in this so and
when you get to the playoffs, every team that's in
the playoffs has been able to win on other teams fields.
They've been able to beat good pitchers as the season
goes on. It's not like you got the road Rockies
(48:33):
here where they've only won what eighteen games over the
entire season on the road, We've got all every series
has got teams that are very good at the underdog role.
Now that said, I don't know if I'm going to
get there with Cincinnati, but I can't lay this number
with the Dodgers. It's just too much for me against
a team that's even even if you're a five hundred
(48:55):
ball club, which basically the Cincinnati Reds were, and they're
much better at home and they are on the road,
there's still a good team. And a lot of this
will depend on if the Dodgers get Smith back at catcher.
Now they say he's probably going to be back, but
he is so good about shutting down the opposition's running game,
(49:16):
and that's what Cincinnati can do.
Speaker 2 (49:17):
Now.
Speaker 1 (49:18):
Granted they didn't still these many bases this year is
they had in the past. Francona is not a guy
who goes out there and trusts to steal that extra base.
But that shuts down a major part of the Cincinnati
team because from a power perspective, the Dodgers have a
lot more power than Cincinnati does, and Cincinnati's got to
(49:39):
be able against the quality pitching like the Dodgers they've
got to be able to run into some runs, steal
some bases, go for first third, that kind of thing.
So with Smith the catcher, I think that's a big deal.
If he's starting at catcher, I don't want Cincinnati. If
for some reason he's dhing today, then there's more value
on Cincinnati in that regard. If he asked me.
Speaker 3 (50:01):
The Dodgers have talented pitching, they have talented starting pitching.
They have good names in their bullpen, but their bullpen
has been atrocious this season. I mean Blake Trying, and yes,
he was injured for a lot of the season, but
since he's come back from injury, he has not been himself.
Makes me worried because many guys in the clubhouse will
(50:25):
say he has the best stuff in that bullpen. Tanner
Scott awful. Since he came to the Dodgers. I expected
big things from him. He's been terrible this he has
been good. Who else has been good in their bullpen.
They've got two guys who have been consistent.
Speaker 1 (50:42):
In their bullpen.
Speaker 3 (50:43):
Uh, and then they're just thrown out dudes out there.
So the bullpen is hard to trust. But I like
the Dodgers. I'm gonna make the Dodgers my parlay leg.
I'm gonna make them Dodgers first five money line my
parlay leg. And I'll tell you why. Hunter has been
great this season. But he has an eight hundred OPS
(51:05):
against the Dodgers in his career against these batters, and
one of the biggest discrepancies in home road records. He's
one five eighty R at home and a four to
eight ERA on the road. And that's not against the Dodgers,
that's against anyone. So I think the Dodgers have a
good potential to tag Green here early. Several ways you
(51:28):
could go here, Dodgers first five over one and a
half even, I think would be a decent way to go.
But Blake Snell against these Reds unbelievable numbers forty eight
at bats against, one oh four average against and a
three fourteen OPS. That's almost four hundred points below what
(51:49):
I consider the Mendoz aligned for ops unbelievable numbers. I
think Blake Snell is going to shut these batters down.
The Reds are the one team that pretty much doesn't
long in the playoffs. They backed their way in by
losing their last game, and they got lucky that the
Mets lost, so uh, I mean, they don't belong here.
(52:10):
I think the Dodgers will just mop him up, in
my opinion, so that's gonna be the The bullpen does
worry me, but uh yeah, Dave Roberts, Yeah, let me. Well,
we'll go on Dave Robert. We'll wait till Dave Roberts
blows a game and then I'll go off on him.
But I'll give him, I'll give him a long lease
until he makes a dumb mistake. If he pulls Blake
(52:32):
Snell after three innings, I'm gonna throw up.
Speaker 2 (52:36):
Yeah, yeah, listen TV. I can't. I can't disagree with that.
All your all your points are sound points. The one
thing I will, I guess, push back on a little
bit is like I don't think that it matters that
maybe like a team backed their way into the playoffs.
Like I don't think that's like a way to sort
of like make a case against the team, because again,
(52:58):
I think you get in sometimes you get in in
that fashion, like Brian Leonard said, you're playing with house money.
You're very dangerous. That being said, in this matchup, I
definitely think this matchup suits the Dodgers. I kind of
like that Dodgers team total over. I think Dodgers team
total over is a pretty good way to go here.
(53:19):
Reason I think that you could see some runs in
this game, especially maybe the Dodgers scoring some runs. Hunter
Green is really like he's gonna throw almost all fastballs,
probably probably fifty five to sixty fastballs. And like, I mean,
if you look at what he's done this season, it's
one hundred miles an hour here it is do something
(53:40):
with it. And the Dodgers are one of the teams
that can do something with that, probably more so than
some other teams. So you know, if you look at
Hunter greens underl like the statcast page is metrics, it's
it's very good except in exit below and hard hit rate.
And he doesn't get a ton of ground balls. The
reason he doesn't get a ton of ground balls he
likes to pitch up in the zone. Why does he
(54:02):
like to pitch up in the zone. Because most guys
cannot handle one hundred up in the zone. It's a
tough pitch to handle. A lot. He beats a lot
of good major league hitters because he throws one hundred
miles an hour and he put and he puts it
near the top of the zone where it's still a strike,
but you want to swing at it. Elite hitters can
handle that. And when an elite hitter, let's say a
(54:24):
show Hey Otani or even a Mookie Bets or a
Freddie Friedman or Will Smith or or a Max Muntzi
or a taoscar Hernandez cat gets a hold of one
hundred at the top of the zone, where does that
ball end up in the seats, in the in the crowd.
That's where one hundred miles an hour up ends up
with a guy that can square it up. The thing is,
(54:47):
for Hunter Green, a lot of teams don't have six
or seven guys that can square that pitch up. The
Dodgers have six or seven guys that can square up
one hundred miles hour four steamer and put it in
the seats. And that's why when I see his hard
hit percentage and his exit be low, being in the
bottom twenty percent of Major League Baseball, but his numbers
being so good, what does that tell me? Well, he's
(55:09):
gonna blow that by a lot of people, a lot
of players. It's gonna get, you know, and he's not
giving up many base runners. You're not gonna really string
hits together against Hunter Green. What you can do, though,
is catch up to one hundred up and then put
it eight rows deep in the seat and all of
a sudden you have a couple of runs. Team total
is like over three and a half minus one forty
minus one forty five. Kind of I'm kind of gonna
(55:32):
be surprised if the Dodgers don't get to four runs here.
And also, just if you want to talk about the
game total or if you like the Reds at all,
I'm almost gonna be a little bit surprised if the
game totals doesn't go over, because I do think the
Reds are gonna have to score some runs to stay
in this game. So if you like the Reds, I
think you have to like the over a little bit.
Like I'm just not seeing like a two to one
(55:53):
type game, which I guess is a statement because of course,
Blake Snell Hunter Green like they're both really good pitchers.
Snell has been great of late Tokyo Braindon pointed out
that there might be some runs late to be had
off the Dodgers bullpen. I don't disagree with that either,
So I think the best way to play it, TV,
I kind of agree with you first five. If you
don't like the money line, maybe like the over and
(56:14):
the first five being one and a half that seems
very low. That's basically a bluepan of blast, and you're there,
and that's probably gonna happen. I wouldn't be surprised if
if you get two times through the order against Hunter
Green in those first couple of innings, like someone's gonna
hit one pretty far, and if it goes out of
the ballpark, you might have that first five over. So
I'm with you there, TV, go ahead.
Speaker 3 (56:36):
It can one hundred mile an hour. Have you seen
how have you seen Otani's barrel speed? My god, he
swings up best.
Speaker 2 (56:42):
That's what I'm talking about.
Speaker 1 (56:44):
Yeah, versus guys fastballs too, and that's what Green throws.
I do want to point out that for some reason,
Cincinnati's decided Zach Lyttel will be the starter for Game
two kind of surprised me as well. As Abbott and
Lodolo have pitched. Maybe he's just gonna pitch couple innings
as maybe an opener, and then Abbot or Lodello will
come in after that. But that was a little bit
(57:06):
of a surprise this morning, and then Singer has been
pretty solid all year along too, so interesting how they're
setting that up. Keep that in mind tomorrow that Hottel
will be starting, but we don't know how long he'll
be going, and he's a flagball pitcher. I guess pretty good.
Speaker 3 (57:23):
I think the Reds are in big trouble. I mean,
they're five hundred baseball team, they don't belong in the playoffs.
They're in big trouble in my opinion. But I said
the same thing about Max Muntsey, and I said the
same thing about the Brewers, and look what happened to
both of them. Brewers had the best record in MLB
ninety seven wins.
Speaker 2 (57:43):
So chat risen waving the Chat points out, Yeah, that
I think the Dodgers got to Green last time they
saw him, which is probably about a month ago, and
it was a similar type thing where I think they
got him for like five or six runs over five innings.
I'll have to go back and digging to that game
a little bit further. I'm sure that a couple of
those balls left the ballpark. So TV you settled on
(58:07):
Dodgers first five money line for the parlay, Brian, can
we get a price on that.
Speaker 1 (58:11):
Minus one eighty? We're eating a little bit of chalk today.
Speaker 2 (58:15):
Yeah, that's okay, I mean it's that's that's the thing
like the three teamer makes it a little bit easier
to get action on some of these, you know, sides
that you might not necessarily want to lay it on.
What about the Yankees? What do you what do you
see in for a price?
Speaker 1 (58:29):
Yankies were minus one thirty and my Detroit under team
total was minus one twenty five.
Speaker 2 (58:35):
All right, so let's run. So we are at the
end of the show, pretty pretty thorough breakdown on all
all four games. I think we gave out a lot
of info, probably more so for you to make your
own decision if that's through oute you want to go,
if you want our place, Uh, give us give us
that promo code one more time, Brian.
Speaker 1 (58:53):
Yeah, bases ninety nine. You'll get any any one of
us all the way through the World Series for all
ninety nine dollars, which was originally one forty nine. So
that's that's a pretty good savings. And uh, we are
putting out, as was mentioned earlier, all of our baseball
players the rest of the way will be for nine dollars,
(59:14):
I believe, but.
Speaker 3 (59:17):
Aside from.
Speaker 1 (59:19):
Thirty five, so any five percent we have, it's definitely.
If we have one five percent, that's you. You're probably
better off getting all the way through. But I'm sure
we'll have more than that, so we'll see how it goes.
It's good, good time to get our package for the
rest of the time.
Speaker 3 (59:36):
And to mention today's five dollars Tuesdays, well, so we're
all going to have a playout. I'm sure for these
MLB or Brian and Adam do football, so they might
have a football play but five dollars Tuesday today, and
we all put free plays up too, So go to
wagertalk dot com and click the free plays page to see.
Speaker 2 (59:55):
What we got all right, before we sign off the
parlay one more time, Brian Leonard is gonna go with
Tigers under team total under three and a half in
the early game. That's Tiger's team total under three and
a half for the full game. I'm gonna go with
the Yankees on the money line for the full game. Tokyo.
Brandon is gonna go Dodgers first five money line. That
(01:00:17):
parlay plays plus three ninety five, and even with the
not hitting one last week, we are still ahead on
the season. On the parlay, hopefully we can bring that
energy into the playoffs and cash a couple of these.
As long as there's gonna be four games a day,
I think we can probably do a parlay. We may
have to think of something else when we get later,
but this week, you know, at least the next two
(01:00:38):
days we'll get one out. And who said we couldn't
do an hour show with only four games? We still
went over.
Speaker 3 (01:00:46):
When we have Adam, we never have a problem.
Speaker 2 (01:00:51):
Hey, you can do it by an Actually we.
Speaker 3 (01:00:55):
Probably all talked about the same today.
Speaker 2 (01:00:58):
Well, listen, we're making We're making package is on the
coupon codes on the fly here. You know, I wasn't
expected we had plenty. But no, I'm glad the hour
we didn't even need to have, like you know, we
didn't even need to have Tokyo Brandon like go into
like story time or do like like turn it into
a talent show. We did our show. We got it
(01:01:18):
was perfect. Yeah, So no, I'm fired up for tomorrow
hopefully hopefully all these games split and then we've got
four games on Thursday. Who knows, but yeah, it was
a great show. Hopefully this, you know, is hopefully everyone
is ready to go for the first day of the
postseason and we'll be back tomorrow nine am to do
(01:01:39):
it all over again. So have a great day everyone.
Basis ninety nine is the coupon code get you the
full playoffs for any of the three of us and
five dollars Tuesday. As always, we'll see you guys again
in the morning.
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