October 27, 2025 • 42 mins
Looking for the best World Series picks, predictions and betting tips for Monday, October 27, 2025? Tune in to Total Bases with expert handicappers Adam Trigger, Bryan Leonard and Tokyo Brandon as they break down today’s MLB matchups with sharp insights and actionable advice.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
All right, welcome in.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
It is Monday morning and his time for Total Bases,
the final week of Total basis for the season. We
have hit the home stretch, Brian Leonard. It's Game three
of the World Series, and this will be the last
week of shows. Of course, because we've only got a
couple We've only have at most five more MLB games
(00:24):
to talk about this year, hopefully that many. We'll see
what happens over the next couple of days. But I
want to go to you because we didn't have you.
It was me and Tokyo. It was myself in Tokyo
Brandon on Friday, so we didn't get your thoughts about
Game one. None of us gave our thoughts about Game two.
Before we get into game three, I'm interested in your
(00:45):
takeaways from the first two games of the World Series.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
Is this where you expected us to be at this point?
Speaker 3 (00:52):
Yeah? Probably one to one. I don't know if I
would have had to come out the same way. I
was very surprised that Toronto hit so well in Game one.
I've been playing a lot of these games over and
that one. I really thought that the pitching of the Dodgers,
(01:19):
we're really going to slow down that Toronto team. I
think I had a smaller play on team total under
in Toronto in that first game, and I was wrong. Basically,
they had a guy come in and if there was
anybody on this Dodgers team that I thought would have success,
(01:41):
would be the starter for Game one. Because he does
not throw completely into the into the strike zone. A
lot of what he does is if he gets behind
or if he doesn't want to face anybody, he walks
him and he did in that game. But the problem
is that's Toronto offense was so good. There wasn't a
(02:02):
weak spot in the in the in the lineup, and
so that was that was a major concern there in Toronto.
Hit him well and and uh I it was interesting.
I know you do this uh live betting show for
NFL and college football once in a while. I'm sitting
(02:22):
in the sports book at the M watching Game one
and there's a guy looking at the the scoreboard, actually
the lineboard, and has they have line betting. It's a
William Hill book and he starts screaming. He goes, oh
my god, you know, all around and everybody's looking around,
(02:44):
and sure enough, ten seconds later you see the Grand Slam.
If a Las Vegas sportsbook. Can't even get it on
time with with the live, live, live play. It's it's
pretty bad. And that's the problem you have anymore with
all with all the streaming and everything. But he was
(03:05):
going crazy and we couldn't figure out what it was.
And that was right before the Grand Slam. And it
was fun. Like we said before, we get a lot
of friends in Canada, so it was nice to see that,
but didn't help me. By that time, I'd already lost
my bet. Uh it gave two. We saw just an
outstanding performance by the daughter's starter motto and that's more
(03:27):
like what I was expecting a little bit, so I
wouldn't say anything as a surprise as of yet. We're
going to see what's going to happen here, because you go,
you are going to see a little bit of a
drop down. As much as I like, uh, the Dodger
starter glass, now he's not quite on the same level
as the previous two starters A sureser and I was
(03:49):
wrong the other day. He proved me wrong, but he's
still a forty one year old guy out there. We'll
see how it goes. But yeah, it's it's worked out.
What I thought, I probably thought they were gonna split,
but the way they got there is a little bit
of a surprise to me.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Yeah, I think a split is probably where I was
at as well.
Speaker 1 (04:13):
So I'll go back to Friday's show.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
I did give out Blue Jays plus one and a
half in game one, that one easily. However, I didn't
bet either of the first two games, Brian, and I'm
glad I didn't because had I bet Blue Jays plus
one and a half in game one, I certainly would
have come back and done it in game two. And
the reason for that is because the setup, like the
(04:38):
kind of the preferred setup for me, like going into
the first weekend, was if I could get Gossman followed
by like Farland and the top relievers, and that's exactly
what you know. The fact that the surprising thing to
me is not that they split, it's that the Blue
Jays blew out the Dodgers in Game one to the
point where they didn't need to use any of their
(05:00):
high leverage relief arms. Now, because I again and this
sometimes this works against me, this worked in my favor
because I didn't get to the window with the would
ultimately get to the window with the Blue Jays in
Game one, and I sort of missed that win. I
was reluctant to then betit in game two, having not
sort of gotten the win in game one, also because
(05:24):
of the blowout win. I do think the line the
line was just out of range for me.
Speaker 1 (05:29):
It was. It was slightly worse than it was in
game one.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
So game one you could have got Blue Jays plus
the one and a half. I think all that went
all the way down to like minus one twenty minus
won twenty three by first pitch. Game two never gotten
that range. It was mostly minus one thirty minus one
thirty five. But had I won that first game, the
one that we talked about on the show, I certainly
think I would have come back and just fired in
(05:54):
game two at a little bit of a worse number
and I would have split, but I would have lost
the big on those to bets, so kind of the
way I thought it would play out. I personally, I'm
happy that the Dodgers ended up getting the job done
in game two and covered the one and a half
because that might have sent me on a little bit
of tilt having missed both of those wins. So we
(06:15):
come here today, we're now in game three. This series
is split, and Brian, I'm going into this with the
same mindset that I went into the first weekend. Can
I find a spot to bet the Blue Jays, because
I do feel like the shade is to the Dodgers,
especially now that we're back at Dodgers Stadium. However, in
game three, at least in game three, it means you're
(06:38):
going to have the stomach Max Scherzer, so I'll go
to you. He proved us wrong in the last round,
but that was his only start of the playoffs so far,
and his first start since late September. Does he turn
around and do it again on the road here?
Speaker 3 (06:50):
Yeah? We got Schrewzer in Glass now Glass now basically
about a one ninety five favorite here a total of
either eight to the over or eight and a half
to the under. I do see if it's correct. I've
got the Caesars out there at eight to the under
minus one thirty. Most others have eight to the over.
So if you're out there right now, you got to
(07:11):
Caesar's accountant. You like the over these lines on our
website Odds Logic or correct, you're getting decent money on
that over. Eight.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
I see a few eight and a halfs in like
the minus one ten, minus one fifteen range.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
I feel like that's what's probably going to be. But yeah,
go ahead.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
So if you like the over gravity Cazars right now,
if that is correct, Number one of the advantage of
Washington is live. But yeah, it's We've got two teams,
neither one of who I'm overly impressive on the road during
the regular season, but both very strong at home during
the regular season. Toronto was only forty to forty one
on the road during during the regular season, but they
(07:49):
have played better on the road in some pretty tough
places which the playoffs have started here. As you mentioned
and as we both matched, Sureser really look good in
that first game. Uh, he had a lot of rest.
In fact, we talked about Game one, the loss for Dodgers.
(08:10):
I believe teams are now zero to five in that
situation where they have they've taken the first the other
series before that, and the other team had to go
like seven innings or something, and the team with the
rest is lost all five times, I believe, So maybe
(08:30):
that was the situation in that first game. It was
just the rest versus the rest. Thing. But Sureser, you
take a look at what he's done on the season.
His barrel rate second percentile, ground ball rate second percent
tile Dodger Stadium is a good home run part. That
is a concern when you've got that ground ball rate
as fastball velocity. We always think of sures are as
(08:52):
just a guy throwing p's up there, but only thirty
seven is in a thirty seven percent on the season.
His four semur is one point four miles an hour,
or less than an average right hander. He was very good.
He was pumped up in that first game. He'll be
pumped up again here. That's just sures it. But will
we still get that same velocity. If we don't, it
(09:14):
could be a tough day for him on the mound here.
When you take a look at his opposition here, he
and I always say that when it comes to Tyler
Glass now when he's pitching, when he's healthy, he's the
guy that I want. But you can go back and
look at his last three seasons. He's this year in
the regular season ninety innings, the year before one hundred
(09:36):
and thirty four, and then in twenty twenty three only
one hundred and twenty he's a guy who when he's
on the mound, he's good, but he's very injury prone.
This year, is chase rate is only in the first percentile.
He's facing a team in Toronto that doesn't chase a lot.
His walk rate is in the seventh percentile, which is
not very good, and he's going against a team that
(09:58):
it's pretty aggressive. So when I look at this game
and we see last now his his grobball ra sixty
second percent, so he's more a little bit more of
a grab ball pitcher, and his numbers look really good.
But my first look at this is the line may
(10:19):
be a little bit too high. Right now, it's gone up.
It's gone up a little bit since the opener. It's
hard to lay close to two dollars in a game
in which we already seen that Toronto's offense is probably better.
In fact, I'm pretty confident that it's better. And so
(10:40):
if I'm lucky to play this, I'm probably going to
play the play the over you can get other than
the Caesars deal. You can get the over minus one
twenty in that range eight minus one twenty if you
shop a hour late and half. As you mentioned some
other places, but I trust the offenses here more than
I do of the pitching. And if the Dodger looked
(11:03):
the less the last game they went nine innings, didn't
bring in the bullpen, if if the Dodgers happened to
win this whole thing, being in that bullpen and getting
a World Series ring is kind of like stealing one.
He's put of like the guy at the end of
the NBA bench that's the twelfth man or eleventh man,
never gets to play because that bullpen has not done
(11:23):
anything to put them in a position to win this
to win this championship this year, Yeah, I think the
over is probably the way to go. I think both
teams should have a little bit of success, especially if
you're looking to play some home run props with the Dodgers,
that might not be a bad idea. I'm not a
home run prop guy, not a prop guy at all.
(11:44):
But the way surezers fastball is down a little bit,
and the way he he just doesn't he just didn't
have the whole thing anymore. Granted, he beat me last time.
Sometimes you lose, you lose when you're a and if
you beat me again, I wouldn't have a problem with it.
It's it's just that you got to go with the numbers.
(12:06):
I go what you've seen all season long as opposed
to one start.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
Yeah, I'll work backward here a little bit because you
bring up the bullpens, and you know, we really haven't
seen much of the bullpen from either team so far
in this series, right, because the Blue Jays had a
number of relievers.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
Come in Game.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
One, but the game was pretty much out of reach
when most of those relievers were in the game, I
would say like that, you know, the flu Hardy might
have had, like the one somewhat of a leverage is
spot getting out of the coming into the fifth inning,
But after that, I mean the you know, once that
game was blown open, which would have been the six, like,
(12:49):
you know, there really wasn't so so really flu Hardy
and Sir Anthony de Mingez, I guess you would have
said was in somewhat of a spot. But again, that's
still so early in a game, in the time game,
I don't really count that as like a quote unquote
leverage spot. Like, yes, it's a tie game, it's the
World Series, but it's the fourth and fifth inning, Like
that's that's not game on the line late in the game.
(13:10):
We never had that because, of course, the Blue Jays
put up a ninth spot in the sixth inning and
suddenly the game was over.
Speaker 1 (13:17):
Really the same thing in the second game.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
There was there was some spots that were the game
was still close, but by the end of the game.
But by the end of the game it was pretty
much out of out of reach. And then to your point,
the Dodgers never had to bring their bullpen in. Now,
the Dodgers brought their bullpen in Game one to to
sort of exacerbate the issue, if you will, that nine
(13:40):
run inning. Shehan played his part in that, and they
kind of imploded there a little bit. Uh. I still
I still think I have a slight bullpen edge to
the Blue Jays. I know that this was a bullpen
that I criticized in the second half of the season
pretty much.
Speaker 1 (13:56):
I was anti Blue Jay's bullpen.
Speaker 2 (13:59):
Uh. Since Jimmy Garcia went down that was July second,
So Yimmy, Jimmy Garcia goes down on July second, their
their their bullpen e RA from that point was about
five and it wasn't very good. However, I do think
that they've sort of come together in the postseason a
little bit. Jeff Hoffman's pitched much better. You know, Louis
(14:20):
Varland has really sort of come into his own, as
I think is a is a very good option. And
again with the day off and the fact that Varland
barely pitched in Game two and you never saw him
in Game one, I do think he could be a
potential multi inning option if they wanted him to be here,
which which gives me it's a little check mark on
(14:40):
the side of the Blue Jays for me.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
Now, interesting about Scherzer.
Speaker 2 (14:44):
I think when you look at his body of work
for this year, it would be like if you look
at his stat cast page, his body of work for
this year, I think you just say, okay, easy fade,
like that's something I want to play against. But I
heard him talk after the start he credited, you know,
he talked about the fact that he's forty one, he
has he was dealing with injuries and having like three
(15:08):
weeks off was a blessing to him. Not having to
pitch in that Alds allowed him to get healthy.
Speaker 1 (15:14):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
And then of course he came in and got the
you know, got the win for them. But let's go
back to that game that he won. I mean, you know,
there are so there were some spots in that game.
Someone in the chat said, yeah, he walked four guys.
There were some spots in that game where I'm just
not sure he gets away with it against the Dodgers, right, Like,
I don't know that he's talking Schneider into leaving him
(15:37):
in and then he doesn't give up a three run
Bob or something like that against this lineup. Because that's
that's the one sort of criticism I had against the
Mariners all year. It's like at times that offense sort
of waited around for the big the big home run.
Like they didn't they they were not a great like,
(15:57):
they weren't great at just sort of stringing hits together.
If you watch Mariners baseball all season, it was oftentimes
they squandered opportunities and really they're the bulk of their
runs came on the big extra base hit or the
big home run to put two three runs on the board.
This Dodgers' lineup is just more complete than that. And
that's what concerns me with Cherser is that he's earned
(16:20):
the right to be in a big spot, and then
the big spot turns into four runs for the Dodgers.
And that's some sort of what's got me a little
bit hesitant to just take this Blue Jays plus one
and a half because Brian, from a price standpoint, plus
one and a half minus one fifteen with the road
team getting the quote unquote extra at that.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
Those are all things I love, those are all things
I look for.
Speaker 2 (16:42):
But I can't get over the fact that like Schneider's
gonna be in the dugout and he's gonna be like,
I can't go out and get Max. He's gonna yell
in my face and he's earned the right to do it,
and now what you know, and if he does that,
if he does, like you know what I'm saying though,
like he almost earned the right to do it after
the Alcs and the backs back, and I just feel
like if he does, if he's in that spot against
(17:04):
the Dodgers, it could turn into a crooked number and
then I don't know if they can recover from the
crooked number. That's what's hanging me up on getting to
the window with the Blue Jays here.
Speaker 3 (17:14):
I can understand that, but you're the manager and you're
paid to do that. I don't I don't care who's
who's on the mound, but sure has done that entire life.
When you signed Sureser, you know what you're going to get. Uh,
he's a bulldog, he's a leader, and uh, it's it's
something that you've got to deal with. They they've dealt
(17:34):
with them all season long, and they know a little
bit about him. But I'm not as concerned about that.
You've got your you know, I got a lot of
the line there. I don't. I don't know if that's
gonna make a difference. But you mentioned you like the uh,
the Toronto bullpen a little bit more. I think as
long as as long as Roberts doesn't go with Blake
(17:55):
trying and in a key situation, I don't mind the
Dodgers' bullpen. Uh. She and I really like Shean. He
just didn't have it that that game is going to happen.
They still got Kershaw. They haven't used Kershaw at all.
Climbing Rebres Robleski for two guys that they use in
Game one for a little bit. They're both pitching much
(18:16):
better than they had earlier that you know, they don't
have a lot of innings behind them, but they've been
very good since Robleski's gone to the bullpen. He started
something for the Dodgers this year, but he's pitched a
lot better, and so they can stay away from trying.
(18:37):
I don't, like I said, I don't even know why
he's there, But as long as Roberts doesn't screw it up,
I'm not so concerned about the bullpen right now. I
think it's in a little bit better shape than it's
been earlier. And you know, they they're still missing out
on Scott Vessia. Obviously he's some personal problem so he
didn't make the make the roster here. But and they
(18:58):
dropped Kaspirius, who I really like overall, but they dropped him.
He's not on the playoff roster in this round. So yeah,
well let's see how it goes. I I just trust
the Dodger star more in this game. And uh, but
I also like the Toronto Bats, so I'll stick with
the over Yeah.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
I mean you make a good point about, like, you know,
the Dodgers definitely have some options. You know, I talked
about Rokie Sasaki ahead of Game one being someone that
I would not I wouldn't have minded having the blue
if if if it came down to it, and I
had the Blue Jays against Sasaki late in a game
in Toronto, I think I would be fine with that.
(19:40):
I'm less inclined to want to face Sasaki at Dodger
Stadium where the whole crowd is with him.
Speaker 1 (19:48):
Like for me, still like Hit. I love him in
the relief role.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
And actually, if Roberts is smart here, what he what
he could do if he wanted to, is just do
something simil to what he did in Game four against
the Phillies, where maybe Glass now goes six, maybe you've
got Sasaki out there for the seventh and.
Speaker 1 (20:06):
You just let him finish the game right like that.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
I think that was the If you go back to
Game four, it was a two to one lead in
the series against the Phillies, I think that was the
idea was I can't remember when he came in, but
I want to say Sasaki pitched three innings in that game.
Point I'm trying to make here is I like him
as a long reliever. If you want to bring him
in earlier in the game, I think he could cruise
(20:30):
my issue. And this is going back to the Brewers
series and it would still be my issue here is
like putting him in in a save situation on the road.
I don't know that he's got the mental makeup for
that at this point, especially with the fact that he
like outwardly struggled with with confidence at points this year,
Like he's not the guy that I want in a
one run game in Toronto with that crowd ride in
(20:54):
him in the ninth inning, similar to you know, you
go back to Game one against the Brewers and he,
for all intentsive purposes, he he blew that save. I
know he got I know he got out of or
well tried and came in and got out of it.
But there was a couple of loud outs and that
that really was like it won't go down as a
blow and safe for him, but it was basically a
blow and safe in the in the game one against
(21:16):
the Brewers.
Speaker 1 (21:16):
So all all those are issues, I.
Speaker 2 (21:19):
Guess, if you want to call them issues, are less
of an issue here in my opinion. So yeah, it's again,
like I said, I still think we're getting to the
point in the year, but we are at the point
in the year where there's like this isn't like the
regular season where you can kind of pick off value
here and there, We've got one game. The books are
(21:39):
not are likely not going to make a mistake in
a World Series game. So to me, you have to decide, Okay,
can I play against how the line is shaded? You
even said Dodgers took some money. We're getting to the
point where, in my opinion, the clear value is with Toronto.
Speaker 1 (21:58):
And then you have to ask yourself.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
Is you know is it because like, you know, is
it worth a bet to have the value if it's
gonna Because if it's gonna lose, it's still a loser,
right like, So that's in my opinion for me personally,
that's the tough part with Game three.
Speaker 1 (22:14):
I think the values on the JAS.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
I could sit here and twist a scenario where I think,
like it makes sense, But at the same time, I
have enough concerns with you know, Churser, and I'll go
back to the thing with Schneider. I think what I'm
talking about is maybe an earlier spot with Scherzer.
Speaker 1 (22:34):
I don't think Schneider's.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
Gonna have a hard time going to Varlin and let's
say the fifth or sixth inning, which is I believe
where he came out of the game against the Mariners,
I'm talking about Scherzer gets himself into his spot in
like the third inning. Okay, he hasn't given up a
run yet, but the Dodgers of a couple guys on.
I feel like Schneider's gonna stay in the dugout because
I still think Schuurzer's got I think Schurzer's higher in
(22:58):
the pecking order than at this point, and I think
he's going to stay in the dugout, and I think
it ends up being three nothing Dodgers before Surezer comes out,
other than like him going to get sures or in
like the third or fourth inning of a zero zero game.
That's that's what I was kind of trying to say earlier.
Speaker 3 (23:17):
Yeah, I can see that, and I do agree the value.
If you're looking to play aside, I think he's got
to be on Toronto here. Both these teams have proven
that could win on the road, and so to lay
two dollars or in this general range, it's a little
bit too high. Yeah, when you take a look at
that Toronto lineup they do have. You know, they've got
guys in there that Miles Straw gets to start once
(23:40):
in a while. Kind of f Leff is not a
bad player, but he's beginning more of these starts because
they've got Bashett coming back and trying to play him
at a different position. That's kind of risky. I thought
that was risky before they talked about it, putting in
a second base that he's really never played in the before.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (24:03):
Yeah, it's tough. It's tough. I like I said, I haven't.
I haven't had a lot of success so far in
this series, so I'm not you know, I didn't put
out any big plays, but it's still it's a situation
where my confidence wouldn't be as high right now as
it would be during the regular season because it's a
different ballgame. We've seen the teams play. We know what
(24:26):
the managers are going to do. Hey, when it comes
to the World Series in the playoffs, every day is
if it's in a situation where it comes down to
it both guys, both managers are going to make decisions
now to win this game as opposed to a little
bit in the future. I will it hats off to
measure League Baseball. I'm so used to the NBA. When
(24:49):
you get to the playoffs, they have so many days
off between the games. I believe there's only two days off.
They had yesterday in the travel day, and they'll have
another travel day, So hats off to Meajor League Baseball
in that regard. I always like it when you've got
a situation where you've got to worry about the guys
having enough enough gas in the tank, pitching two days
(25:12):
and three days in a row. That kind of thing.
That's what baseball is, and I hate it when they
have too many days off. So yeah, I hate to
be a guy that doesn't give a major opinion on it.
But it's I'm not going to best something just because
it's on TV. People expect it. So it'll be the
Dodgers or nothing for me if I put out anything
(25:34):
for the Dodgers or excuse me not the Dodgers Toronto
and the over to me. But if I put out
on anything, it's probably gonna be the Over.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
So I want to go to a question in the
chat quick. But I also want to just like go
back to because I think we kind of are in
agreement in that in that respect that it would probably
be Blue Jays or passing the side as far as
your total is concerned.
Speaker 1 (25:56):
You know the scenario.
Speaker 2 (25:57):
I just sort of hashed out has me leaning toward
the first five over because that right now I'm seeing
books that have first five over four at like minus
twenty five minus one thirty.
Speaker 1 (26:10):
Now you're gonna have to shop around. I do think
you'll end up seeing some over four and a half,
so I would like that far less.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
But if you think about it, first five over four,
if if that scenario does happen where Schurezer gets himself
in trouble, and and there's there's reason to think that
may happen because again last start only starting the playoffs
so far, four Walks pitched out of trouble. The last
(26:36):
time we saw him prior to that, I believe was
the end of the regular season against the Red Sox
where he gave up ten hits. So let's just say
that that scenario happens in the first second or third
inning and you get that crooked number. I mean, let's
if you get a three run shot all all of
a sudden, you only need to scrape across one other
run to get to four, and you're free rolling right
(26:59):
there like that.
Speaker 1 (27:00):
I don't hate that.
Speaker 2 (27:01):
I think if I was going to look at the total,
I prefer the first five total and I know it's
like maybe a little bit counterintuitive because you take out
the bullpens, which we you know, we both kind of
agree are not elite bullpens. But having that four flat
in the first five, to me makes some sense. Do
you have any opinion on first five as opposed to game.
Speaker 3 (27:22):
Yeah, I could see that. I'm looking right now at
the first five team totals. I see Toronto at one
and a half. I see the Dodgers at two and
a half bet slightly to the under. Yeah, I'd be
interested in either of the Dodgers over at pretty much
even money. If they score three in the first five,
you get that, you get the win. But the four
(27:45):
is better because you get to push on the four.
And that's something that is very important in the small
sample size is getting that push. And as you mentioned
right now, the first half a cent, it sitting at
four over basically thirty. Most of the other places are
(28:06):
at four and a half to the under minus one,
twenty one, twenty five. So if you can get the four,
I wouldn't. I wouldn't lay over more than one thirty.
That would be a decent choice, or play the Dodgers
over two and a half. In the first five and
get them it basically even money.
Speaker 2 (28:23):
Mark Rock says, what's your opinion on both pitcher strikeouts. Well,
I'll go back to a point that you made with Glass. Now,
he he doesn't get much swing and miss outside of
the zone. It's it's weird because because it's but it's
it's weird because he gets a lot of swing and
miss on balls that are in the zone. And that,
(28:44):
to me is interesting because this Blue Jays lineup is very,
very good. Like there, I mean that that's like almost
like it's you know, it goes without saying. I feel
like at this point, it's it's well known that the
Blue Jays have a great lineup.
Speaker 1 (29:00):
They're in the World Series. They've been one of the
better lineups all year.
Speaker 2 (29:03):
But I've kind of complimented them all season and on
one through nine, it's it's really good at bad after
really good at that. Look at just look at it,
even when guys like Ernie Clement, Andre Jim Andezkuz, guys
like that at the bottom of the order having great
at bats. Schneider, I mean, you could literally just throw
any name out there on this roster for the most part,
(29:24):
and they're having a like they go up and give
you a professional at that. So you look at someone
like Blastow who's got all of these accolades. He's priced
as the the the what do you call it. He's
priced as the elite option. Yet he doesn't get a
ton of swing and miss on pitches outside the zone,
and because of that, he will walk batters. So to me,
(29:47):
the I would almost look at a Glassdow strikeout under
for that because of that, because you know that the
Dodgers being minus two hundred at home and Glasgow being
the pitching favorite is gonna is going to forced you
to pay a premium on him in most markets. So
for me, I look at glass now strikeouts under because
he doesn't get a ton of swinging miss outside the zone.
(30:09):
And if you put the ball on his own, Brian Leonard,
these Blue Jays can hit that ball.
Speaker 3 (30:13):
Yeah. Yeah. Going back to Game one, Blake Snell, you
know whatever it was his last day starts, he'd given
up a total like two or four earned runs. I
don't know if it was that situation, like I said,
was on five for those teams. But Blake Snell came
out and he he's the guy who gets a lot
of swinging mess. He didn't get any swinging mess against
Toronto and that first game, and that was very impressive
(30:37):
to me that Toronto could go through that lineup or
with Blake Snell and he couldn't put anybody away. He
was getting to two strikes all the time and he
couldn't put them away, and he had a look on
his face like, geez, what's what's going on here? Yamamoto
didn't have that. Yamamoto was able to get the swinging mess.
(30:58):
Just one of the best starts I've ever seen in
the World Series. And hats off to him. But now
now we've got a guy that's somewhat in the middle
in Glass now and uh yeah, this is a very
good Toronto lineup. We'll see what happens if you can't
get the swinging mess. Maybe maybe we see something similar
to to Game one for Toronto for their their batting
(31:20):
in that regard. And yeah, this is this is a
tough both both. Obviously, when you get to the World Series,
you've got two very good offenses for the most part,
no matter who you put out there. But the Dodgers,
Dodgers are great and you take a look at somebody
mentioned the other day, you've probably you may have three
(31:40):
to four Hall of famers leading off that leading off
that their batting going to a townty Bets Freeman and
Smith and to Oscar's really good too so and Max
Muntsey since he got the glasses, he's been better, although
he hasn't done a whole lot lately. Did hit the
home run the other day. So yeah, two very good off,
two very good lineups, all the way through a somewhat
(32:01):
questionable pitching. Yep, that's the way I would look be over.
Speaker 2 (32:06):
Brian Ate says, you know Snell couldn't get the first
pitch over for a strike.
Speaker 1 (32:10):
He was pitching from behind the whole game.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
That's I guess that's my concern here for like last now,
and if you're talking about strikeouts, is he he's either
gonna be he's more than like he more likely to
just come in the zone right off the bat because
the stuff is so good. So like, I don't think
Glassau is gonna come out and get behind and counts,
(32:33):
but I do think he's gonna come out and try
to hit you with like ninety six right off the bat.
Speaker 1 (32:38):
It's probably gonna be in the zone now.
Speaker 2 (32:42):
Against most of the league, or he's gonna drop that
curveball and against most of the league, he's gonna get
ahead of hitters doing that. But you're talking about Barger, Guerrero.
I mean, these are these are guys that can come
out and hit a good ninety six mile an hour
four seemer somewhere right or like they can do like that.
Speaker 1 (33:02):
That would be my concern.
Speaker 2 (33:03):
So I think to answer the original question, I would
go under glass now strikeouts because of where it's where
it's priced. And on the other side, I would go
over sures or strikeouts because I think he's gonna have
I think he's gonna get himself into some full counts
where he's gonna have to make like a tough pitch.
And that's actually the one that's the one scenario where
(33:26):
I'll take sureser like he's in account and like just
being able to mentally focus himself to make that pitch
and get the strikeout. I'll take him in that scenario
where I don't really want him, is like when he
eventually makes a mistake and gives up three four runs.
But if you're talking about because sures are strikeouts, it's
only like you get plus money on four and a half.
(33:48):
That means you can probably get three and a half
or four at like minus one ten. That that to me,
I mean unless he just gets absolutely mauled and he's
out of this game by the third inning, you got
it like your chances. Sures are getting four strikeouts, five
strike I mean you got to at least think it's
a it's a worthy like five strikeouts for like plus
(34:08):
one forty or plus one fifty. I mean, that doesn't
seem that crazy to me, So I think I'd go Sures.
Speaker 3 (34:15):
Are over if you had to play it possibly. I'm
just still concerned. We're having the last two days off,
they've got everybody ready, or your last yes, yesterday off,
They've got everybody ready. When he got a stat here,
we got your entire bullpen in what you're expecting to
be The liiesmaker doesn't think it's going to be a
(34:36):
pretty even game. I think it will be.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
Yeah, and again this is you know, we do this
show all year, and it's much easier to, in my opinion,
provide value to the viewer during the regular season, of course,
when we've got fifteen games and we can pick off
little edges. But we want to come out and do
a show for the World series and give you as
many sort of angles as possible. So I'll just kind
(35:01):
of summarize mine before we sign off here.
Speaker 1 (35:04):
I think it blewed. If I had to play.
Speaker 2 (35:07):
Aside, it's Blue Jays plus one and a half. I
agree with you on the over I think I prefer
over four in the first five. And then for the
strikeout props, I think I would go glass now under.
If I absolutely had to pick a strikeout prop, it
would be glass now under because again I I think
he will you know, I think that he's gonna lack
some of the swing and miss on pitches outside of
(35:29):
the zone. Uh that you really really needed, my opinion,
to like totally shut down this Blue Jays lineup. So
that's so that's what I got, Brian, What about you?
Just a quick summary on like any angles that you're
looking at.
Speaker 3 (35:40):
Yeah, I'm not a prop guy TV unfortunately. Uh in Japan,
I got. I guess Trump must be in Japan today,
which is why I.
Speaker 1 (35:51):
Said, like roads are closed?
Speaker 3 (35:52):
He said roads, Uh, yeah, because and they and that
happens a lot. I live here in Las Vegas. Anytime
a politician is in town, it's bad traffic in Vegas
all time anyway, but it really shusts everything down. And
I think he lives slightly out of town, so it's
it's a situation where he just can't it's not sure
(36:13):
he could get back at that time, as opposed.
Speaker 2 (36:14):
To to be said, well, remember it's uh, he's he's
in outside of Tokyo. So it's you know, ten eleven
o'clock at at night when by the time we need
the show. And he was just he hit us up
like an hour, like maybe thirty minutes before the show
or forty five minutes before the show. He's like, yeah,
there's no way I'm getting home here.
Speaker 1 (36:30):
So yeah, he must be Uh. I got to imagine Tokyo.
Speaker 2 (36:34):
He was saying that, like the traffic out there is
pretty crazy, like it's very densely populated, like.
Speaker 3 (36:42):
In well, he's lived in Phoenix for most of his life.
In Phoenix right now is even worse than Vegas when
it comes to traffic. Even when I go to spring
training just to get to try to get across town.
All the ballparks are within forty minutes of each other,
but it seems like a lot of times you get
stuck in traffic all day long in Phoenix, so he's traffic.
Speaker 2 (37:04):
How many people are gonna leave this World Series game early?
It's a shame, but you know there's gonna be quite
a few people that do it right.
Speaker 3 (37:13):
You know what's interesting? And I know enough you've noticed
this all and it's not hasn't do it today's game.
You could tell how many Toronto people showing up for
the baseball games that are not season ticket holders. They're
not really Toronto fans because every time Toronto hit the ball,
no matter how hard, how far, the crowd would go crazy.
(37:36):
It's like a simple pop up in the infield. Oh
and it just tells you there's a lot of people there.
And we've you know, pres was talking about that the
other day. It was like twelve hundred dollars to go
to the game, and Press has got more money than
than the rest of us combined. But h and he
wouldn't even do it. And he's he's a crazy guy
and he wouldn't even pay those prices. It is just
(38:00):
the way it is. When you get into the playoffs,
you don't have people always tell me they think that
you've got that more of a home advantage. You really
don't because they cheer everything. It's sort of it's sort
of like when you go, you know, you see the
games and yeah, I know you do the Korean and
the Japanese baseball and all that stuff. They're cheering the
entire game. So is that the same kind of advantages
(38:24):
you want if you're you're the home team. I don't know,
never been to one of those games.
Speaker 2 (38:29):
Yeah, I mean it's like Brian, Brian Yates has taken easy.
We're going to stay till the end of cheer our victory. Yeah,
but like most most people at Dodger Stadium are out
of there early.
Speaker 1 (38:37):
Like it's it's been a thing for a very long time.
Speaker 2 (38:39):
If you're not if you're staying till the very end
at Dodger Stadium, you are not.
Speaker 1 (38:44):
Getting out for a very long time typically.
Speaker 2 (38:46):
So who knows, I don't know if they improved that
at all, but I'm pretty sure it's still the same deal.
But at any rate, appreciate you guys joining us at
at almost eighteen hundred live viewers and hopefully we gave
you something to think about for this Game three, I
will promoe something real quick since Tokyo Brandon is not here.
(39:07):
He's our promo guy, and I always forget to actually,
you know, promote the website, talk about what we're doing.
I've got a really good NFL run. I had one
play yesterday. It was a five percent play on the Jets.
They came back, they won the game. I just needed
them to cover, but they won the game, so that
was great. And I've got another NFL play that I've made,
(39:27):
a five percenter that goes tonight. Honestly, I didn't even
I wasn't even gonna make it a five percent, Brian,
but I've been on such a role in the NFL,
specifically in these primetime games, I had to just say,
I'm just like, you know, if it's not broke, don't
fix it. So I do have a five percenter in
the NFL tonight, and because of that, I will post
(39:47):
the baseball if I play it. I will post anything
I play in Major League Baseball for free on my
page at wager Talk. So make sure you're checking out
the wager Talk Free picks page. If you go over
to wager talk dot com, click tab that says free picks.
Speaker 1 (40:01):
All of the Candycappers.
Speaker 2 (40:02):
I have a three pick out for the day will
show up in a nice column, and I'm gonna put
whatever thoughts I have in the baseball game are going
to go there today. So check that out if you're interested.
Speaker 3 (40:14):
Yeah, and I'll touch on that. Tomorrow is a five
dollars Tuesday, and as of two weeks ago, I think
anybody could put up as many five dollars plays as
you want, as long as it's not a five percent play.
So I've only been putting up to one. Maybe tomorrow's
card will be a little bit better, stronger card, but
(40:36):
that's a great way to try out all of our
handicappers on Tuesday. Five dollars Tuesday. You won't get the
five percent plays, but you'll get everything else. And for me,
my fours are pretty much as rare as the fives are,
so hopefully we'll have something tomorrow. I know it's a
better day in hockey than today. They've only got a
couple of games in hockey and have a baseball game,
(40:57):
and you know in the football game, so not as
much for me to hand iticap. But if I find
anything on today's card, it will go up today. But
tomorrow's the day to save great savings. One dollar, excuse me,
five dollars Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (41:11):
And we will be back to discuss game four in
the morning, same time, nine am Eastern. We'll talk about
what we saw in game three and we'll break down
Game four. I have if this game plays out a
certain way, I think I think Game four will be
I have yet to bet it. I have yet to
bet anything in the World series, but I have a
feeling if if game three goes a certain way, I
(41:34):
will likely have a play in Game four, and we'll
talk about that tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (41:38):
But like I said, keep an eye on the site
for free picks.
Speaker 2 (41:40):
Today five percent NFL is up and well, I think
we'll have the trio back in the morning.
Speaker 1 (41:47):
Assuming Tokyo Brandon makes it home. We don't know.
Speaker 2 (41:50):
We don't know where he is right now, but it's
assuming he makes it home before tomorrow. I think we'll
have the three of us back to break down Game four.
We'll see a nine am Eastern. Thanks for tuning in,
and good luck tonight with all your bets.
Speaker 3 (42:07):
Mhm mm hmm.
All right, welcome in.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
It is Monday morning and his time for Total Bases,
the final week of Total basis for the season. We
have hit the home stretch, Brian Leonard. It's Game three
of the World Series, and this will be the last
week of shows. Of course, because we've only got a
couple We've only have at most five more MLB games
(00:24):
to talk about this year, hopefully that many. We'll see
what happens over the next couple of days. But I
want to go to you because we didn't have you.
It was me and Tokyo. It was myself in Tokyo
Brandon on Friday, so we didn't get your thoughts about
Game one. None of us gave our thoughts about Game two.
Before we get into game three, I'm interested in your
(00:45):
takeaways from the first two games of the World Series.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
Is this where you expected us to be at this point?
Speaker 3 (00:52):
Yeah? Probably one to one. I don't know if I
would have had to come out the same way. I
was very surprised that Toronto hit so well in Game one.
I've been playing a lot of these games over and
that one. I really thought that the pitching of the Dodgers,
(01:19):
we're really going to slow down that Toronto team. I
think I had a smaller play on team total under
in Toronto in that first game, and I was wrong. Basically,
they had a guy come in and if there was
anybody on this Dodgers team that I thought would have success,
(01:41):
would be the starter for Game one. Because he does
not throw completely into the into the strike zone. A
lot of what he does is if he gets behind
or if he doesn't want to face anybody, he walks
him and he did in that game. But the problem
is that's Toronto offense was so good. There wasn't a
(02:02):
weak spot in the in the in the lineup, and
so that was that was a major concern there in Toronto.
Hit him well and and uh I it was interesting.
I know you do this uh live betting show for
NFL and college football once in a while. I'm sitting
(02:22):
in the sports book at the M watching Game one
and there's a guy looking at the the scoreboard, actually
the lineboard, and has they have line betting. It's a
William Hill book and he starts screaming. He goes, oh
my god, you know, all around and everybody's looking around,
(02:44):
and sure enough, ten seconds later you see the Grand Slam.
If a Las Vegas sportsbook. Can't even get it on
time with with the live, live, live play. It's it's
pretty bad. And that's the problem you have anymore with
all with all the streaming and everything. But he was
(03:05):
going crazy and we couldn't figure out what it was.
And that was right before the Grand Slam. And it
was fun. Like we said before, we get a lot
of friends in Canada, so it was nice to see that,
but didn't help me. By that time, I'd already lost
my bet. Uh it gave two. We saw just an
outstanding performance by the daughter's starter motto and that's more
(03:27):
like what I was expecting a little bit, so I
wouldn't say anything as a surprise as of yet. We're
going to see what's going to happen here, because you go,
you are going to see a little bit of a
drop down. As much as I like, uh, the Dodger
starter glass, now he's not quite on the same level
as the previous two starters A sureser and I was
(03:49):
wrong the other day. He proved me wrong, but he's
still a forty one year old guy out there. We'll
see how it goes. But yeah, it's it's worked out.
What I thought, I probably thought they were gonna split,
but the way they got there is a little bit
of a surprise to me.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Yeah, I think a split is probably where I was
at as well.
Speaker 1 (04:13):
So I'll go back to Friday's show.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
I did give out Blue Jays plus one and a
half in game one, that one easily. However, I didn't
bet either of the first two games, Brian, and I'm
glad I didn't because had I bet Blue Jays plus
one and a half in game one, I certainly would
have come back and done it in game two. And
the reason for that is because the setup, like the
(04:38):
kind of the preferred setup for me, like going into
the first weekend, was if I could get Gossman followed
by like Farland and the top relievers, and that's exactly
what you know. The fact that the surprising thing to
me is not that they split, it's that the Blue
Jays blew out the Dodgers in Game one to the
point where they didn't need to use any of their
(05:00):
high leverage relief arms. Now, because I again and this
sometimes this works against me, this worked in my favor
because I didn't get to the window with the would
ultimately get to the window with the Blue Jays in
Game one, and I sort of missed that win. I
was reluctant to then betit in game two, having not
sort of gotten the win in game one, also because
(05:24):
of the blowout win. I do think the line the
line was just out of range for me.
Speaker 1 (05:29):
It was. It was slightly worse than it was in
game one.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
So game one you could have got Blue Jays plus
the one and a half. I think all that went
all the way down to like minus one twenty minus
won twenty three by first pitch. Game two never gotten
that range. It was mostly minus one thirty minus one
thirty five. But had I won that first game, the
one that we talked about on the show, I certainly
think I would have come back and just fired in
(05:54):
game two at a little bit of a worse number
and I would have split, but I would have lost
the big on those to bets, so kind of the
way I thought it would play out. I personally, I'm
happy that the Dodgers ended up getting the job done
in game two and covered the one and a half
because that might have sent me on a little bit
of tilt having missed both of those wins. So we
(06:15):
come here today, we're now in game three. This series
is split, and Brian, I'm going into this with the
same mindset that I went into the first weekend. Can
I find a spot to bet the Blue Jays, because
I do feel like the shade is to the Dodgers,
especially now that we're back at Dodgers Stadium. However, in
game three, at least in game three, it means you're
(06:38):
going to have the stomach Max Scherzer, so I'll go
to you. He proved us wrong in the last round,
but that was his only start of the playoffs so far,
and his first start since late September. Does he turn
around and do it again on the road here?
Speaker 3 (06:50):
Yeah? We got Schrewzer in Glass now Glass now basically
about a one ninety five favorite here a total of
either eight to the over or eight and a half
to the under. I do see if it's correct. I've
got the Caesars out there at eight to the under
minus one thirty. Most others have eight to the over.
So if you're out there right now, you got to
(07:11):
Caesar's accountant. You like the over these lines on our
website Odds Logic or correct, you're getting decent money on
that over. Eight.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
I see a few eight and a halfs in like
the minus one ten, minus one fifteen range.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
I feel like that's what's probably going to be. But yeah,
go ahead.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
So if you like the over gravity Cazars right now,
if that is correct, Number one of the advantage of
Washington is live. But yeah, it's We've got two teams,
neither one of who I'm overly impressive on the road during
the regular season, but both very strong at home during
the regular season. Toronto was only forty to forty one
on the road during during the regular season, but they
(07:49):
have played better on the road in some pretty tough
places which the playoffs have started here. As you mentioned
and as we both matched, Sureser really look good in
that first game. Uh, he had a lot of rest.
In fact, we talked about Game one, the loss for Dodgers.
(08:10):
I believe teams are now zero to five in that
situation where they have they've taken the first the other
series before that, and the other team had to go
like seven innings or something, and the team with the
rest is lost all five times, I believe, So maybe
(08:30):
that was the situation in that first game. It was
just the rest versus the rest. Thing. But Sureser, you
take a look at what he's done on the season.
His barrel rate second percentile, ground ball rate second percent
tile Dodger Stadium is a good home run part. That
is a concern when you've got that ground ball rate
as fastball velocity. We always think of sures are as
(08:52):
just a guy throwing p's up there, but only thirty
seven is in a thirty seven percent on the season.
His four semur is one point four miles an hour,
or less than an average right hander. He was very good.
He was pumped up in that first game. He'll be
pumped up again here. That's just sures it. But will
we still get that same velocity. If we don't, it
(09:14):
could be a tough day for him on the mound here.
When you take a look at his opposition here, he
and I always say that when it comes to Tyler
Glass now when he's pitching, when he's healthy, he's the
guy that I want. But you can go back and
look at his last three seasons. He's this year in
the regular season ninety innings, the year before one hundred
(09:36):
and thirty four, and then in twenty twenty three only
one hundred and twenty he's a guy who when he's
on the mound, he's good, but he's very injury prone.
This year, is chase rate is only in the first percentile.
He's facing a team in Toronto that doesn't chase a lot.
His walk rate is in the seventh percentile, which is
not very good, and he's going against a team that
(09:58):
it's pretty aggressive. So when I look at this game
and we see last now his his grobball ra sixty
second percent, so he's more a little bit more of
a grab ball pitcher, and his numbers look really good.
But my first look at this is the line may
(10:19):
be a little bit too high. Right now, it's gone up.
It's gone up a little bit since the opener. It's
hard to lay close to two dollars in a game
in which we already seen that Toronto's offense is probably better.
In fact, I'm pretty confident that it's better. And so
(10:40):
if I'm lucky to play this, I'm probably going to
play the play the over you can get other than
the Caesars deal. You can get the over minus one
twenty in that range eight minus one twenty if you
shop a hour late and half. As you mentioned some
other places, but I trust the offenses here more than
I do of the pitching. And if the Dodger looked
(11:03):
the less the last game they went nine innings, didn't
bring in the bullpen, if if the Dodgers happened to
win this whole thing, being in that bullpen and getting
a World Series ring is kind of like stealing one.
He's put of like the guy at the end of
the NBA bench that's the twelfth man or eleventh man,
never gets to play because that bullpen has not done
(11:23):
anything to put them in a position to win this
to win this championship this year, Yeah, I think the
over is probably the way to go. I think both
teams should have a little bit of success, especially if
you're looking to play some home run props with the Dodgers,
that might not be a bad idea. I'm not a
home run prop guy, not a prop guy at all.
(11:44):
But the way surezers fastball is down a little bit,
and the way he he just doesn't he just didn't
have the whole thing anymore. Granted, he beat me last time.
Sometimes you lose, you lose when you're a and if
you beat me again, I wouldn't have a problem with it.
It's it's just that you got to go with the numbers.
(12:06):
I go what you've seen all season long as opposed
to one start.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
Yeah, I'll work backward here a little bit because you
bring up the bullpens, and you know, we really haven't
seen much of the bullpen from either team so far
in this series, right, because the Blue Jays had a
number of relievers.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
Come in Game.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
One, but the game was pretty much out of reach
when most of those relievers were in the game, I
would say like that, you know, the flu Hardy might
have had, like the one somewhat of a leverage is
spot getting out of the coming into the fifth inning,
But after that, I mean the you know, once that
game was blown open, which would have been the six, like,
(12:49):
you know, there really wasn't so so really flu Hardy
and Sir Anthony de Mingez, I guess you would have
said was in somewhat of a spot. But again, that's
still so early in a game, in the time game,
I don't really count that as like a quote unquote
leverage spot. Like, yes, it's a tie game, it's the
World Series, but it's the fourth and fifth inning, Like
that's that's not game on the line late in the game.
(13:10):
We never had that because, of course, the Blue Jays
put up a ninth spot in the sixth inning and
suddenly the game was over.
Speaker 1 (13:17):
Really the same thing in the second game.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
There was there was some spots that were the game
was still close, but by the end of the game.
But by the end of the game it was pretty
much out of out of reach. And then to your point,
the Dodgers never had to bring their bullpen in. Now,
the Dodgers brought their bullpen in Game one to to
sort of exacerbate the issue, if you will, that nine
(13:40):
run inning. Shehan played his part in that, and they
kind of imploded there a little bit. Uh. I still
I still think I have a slight bullpen edge to
the Blue Jays. I know that this was a bullpen
that I criticized in the second half of the season
pretty much.
Speaker 1 (13:56):
I was anti Blue Jay's bullpen.
Speaker 2 (13:59):
Uh. Since Jimmy Garcia went down that was July second,
So Yimmy, Jimmy Garcia goes down on July second, their
their their bullpen e RA from that point was about
five and it wasn't very good. However, I do think
that they've sort of come together in the postseason a
little bit. Jeff Hoffman's pitched much better. You know, Louis
(14:20):
Varland has really sort of come into his own, as
I think is a is a very good option. And
again with the day off and the fact that Varland
barely pitched in Game two and you never saw him
in Game one, I do think he could be a
potential multi inning option if they wanted him to be here,
which which gives me it's a little check mark on
(14:40):
the side of the Blue Jays for me.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
Now, interesting about Scherzer.
Speaker 2 (14:44):
I think when you look at his body of work
for this year, it would be like if you look
at his stat cast page, his body of work for
this year, I think you just say, okay, easy fade,
like that's something I want to play against. But I
heard him talk after the start he credited, you know,
he talked about the fact that he's forty one, he
has he was dealing with injuries and having like three
(15:08):
weeks off was a blessing to him. Not having to
pitch in that Alds allowed him to get healthy.
Speaker 1 (15:14):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
And then of course he came in and got the
you know, got the win for them. But let's go
back to that game that he won. I mean, you know,
there are so there were some spots in that game.
Someone in the chat said, yeah, he walked four guys.
There were some spots in that game where I'm just
not sure he gets away with it against the Dodgers, right, Like,
I don't know that he's talking Schneider into leaving him
(15:37):
in and then he doesn't give up a three run
Bob or something like that against this lineup. Because that's
that's the one sort of criticism I had against the
Mariners all year. It's like at times that offense sort
of waited around for the big the big home run.
Like they didn't they they were not a great like,
(15:57):
they weren't great at just sort of stringing hits together.
If you watch Mariners baseball all season, it was oftentimes
they squandered opportunities and really they're the bulk of their
runs came on the big extra base hit or the
big home run to put two three runs on the board.
This Dodgers' lineup is just more complete than that. And
that's what concerns me with Cherser is that he's earned
(16:20):
the right to be in a big spot, and then
the big spot turns into four runs for the Dodgers.
And that's some sort of what's got me a little
bit hesitant to just take this Blue Jays plus one
and a half because Brian, from a price standpoint, plus
one and a half minus one fifteen with the road
team getting the quote unquote extra at that.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
Those are all things I love, those are all things
I look for.
Speaker 2 (16:42):
But I can't get over the fact that like Schneider's
gonna be in the dugout and he's gonna be like,
I can't go out and get Max. He's gonna yell
in my face and he's earned the right to do it,
and now what you know, and if he does that,
if he does, like you know what I'm saying though,
like he almost earned the right to do it after
the Alcs and the backs back, and I just feel
like if he does, if he's in that spot against
(17:04):
the Dodgers, it could turn into a crooked number and
then I don't know if they can recover from the
crooked number. That's what's hanging me up on getting to
the window with the Blue Jays here.
Speaker 3 (17:14):
I can understand that, but you're the manager and you're
paid to do that. I don't I don't care who's
who's on the mound, but sure has done that entire life.
When you signed Sureser, you know what you're going to get. Uh,
he's a bulldog, he's a leader, and uh, it's it's
something that you've got to deal with. They they've dealt
(17:34):
with them all season long, and they know a little
bit about him. But I'm not as concerned about that.
You've got your you know, I got a lot of
the line there. I don't. I don't know if that's
gonna make a difference. But you mentioned you like the uh,
the Toronto bullpen a little bit more. I think as
long as as long as Roberts doesn't go with Blake
(17:55):
trying and in a key situation, I don't mind the
Dodgers' bullpen. Uh. She and I really like Shean. He
just didn't have it that that game is going to happen.
They still got Kershaw. They haven't used Kershaw at all.
Climbing Rebres Robleski for two guys that they use in
Game one for a little bit. They're both pitching much
(18:16):
better than they had earlier that you know, they don't
have a lot of innings behind them, but they've been
very good since Robleski's gone to the bullpen. He started
something for the Dodgers this year, but he's pitched a
lot better, and so they can stay away from trying.
(18:37):
I don't, like I said, I don't even know why
he's there, But as long as Roberts doesn't screw it up,
I'm not so concerned about the bullpen right now. I
think it's in a little bit better shape than it's
been earlier. And you know, they they're still missing out
on Scott Vessia. Obviously he's some personal problem so he
didn't make the make the roster here. But and they
(18:58):
dropped Kaspirius, who I really like overall, but they dropped him.
He's not on the playoff roster in this round. So yeah,
well let's see how it goes. I I just trust
the Dodger star more in this game. And uh, but
I also like the Toronto Bats, so I'll stick with
the over Yeah.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
I mean you make a good point about, like, you know,
the Dodgers definitely have some options. You know, I talked
about Rokie Sasaki ahead of Game one being someone that
I would not I wouldn't have minded having the blue
if if if it came down to it, and I
had the Blue Jays against Sasaki late in a game
in Toronto, I think I would be fine with that.
(19:40):
I'm less inclined to want to face Sasaki at Dodger
Stadium where the whole crowd is with him.
Speaker 1 (19:48):
Like for me, still like Hit. I love him in
the relief role.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
And actually, if Roberts is smart here, what he what
he could do if he wanted to, is just do
something simil to what he did in Game four against
the Phillies, where maybe Glass now goes six, maybe you've
got Sasaki out there for the seventh and.
Speaker 1 (20:06):
You just let him finish the game right like that.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
I think that was the If you go back to
Game four, it was a two to one lead in
the series against the Phillies, I think that was the
idea was I can't remember when he came in, but
I want to say Sasaki pitched three innings in that game.
Point I'm trying to make here is I like him
as a long reliever. If you want to bring him
in earlier in the game, I think he could cruise
(20:30):
my issue. And this is going back to the Brewers
series and it would still be my issue here is
like putting him in in a save situation on the road.
I don't know that he's got the mental makeup for
that at this point, especially with the fact that he
like outwardly struggled with with confidence at points this year,
Like he's not the guy that I want in a
one run game in Toronto with that crowd ride in
(20:54):
him in the ninth inning, similar to you know, you
go back to Game one against the Brewers and he,
for all intentsive purposes, he he blew that save. I
know he got I know he got out of or
well tried and came in and got out of it.
But there was a couple of loud outs and that
that really was like it won't go down as a
blow and safe for him, but it was basically a
blow and safe in the in the game one against
(21:16):
the Brewers.
Speaker 1 (21:16):
So all all those are issues, I.
Speaker 2 (21:19):
Guess, if you want to call them issues, are less
of an issue here in my opinion. So yeah, it's again,
like I said, I still think we're getting to the
point in the year, but we are at the point
in the year where there's like this isn't like the
regular season where you can kind of pick off value
here and there, We've got one game. The books are
(21:39):
not are likely not going to make a mistake in
a World Series game. So to me, you have to decide, Okay,
can I play against how the line is shaded? You
even said Dodgers took some money. We're getting to the
point where, in my opinion, the clear value is with Toronto.
Speaker 1 (21:58):
And then you have to ask yourself.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
Is you know is it because like, you know, is
it worth a bet to have the value if it's
gonna Because if it's gonna lose, it's still a loser,
right like, So that's in my opinion for me personally,
that's the tough part with Game three.
Speaker 1 (22:14):
I think the values on the JAS.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
I could sit here and twist a scenario where I think,
like it makes sense, But at the same time, I
have enough concerns with you know, Churser, and I'll go
back to the thing with Schneider. I think what I'm
talking about is maybe an earlier spot with Scherzer.
Speaker 1 (22:34):
I don't think Schneider's.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
Gonna have a hard time going to Varlin and let's
say the fifth or sixth inning, which is I believe
where he came out of the game against the Mariners,
I'm talking about Scherzer gets himself into his spot in
like the third inning. Okay, he hasn't given up a
run yet, but the Dodgers of a couple guys on.
I feel like Schneider's gonna stay in the dugout because
I still think Schuurzer's got I think Schurzer's higher in
(22:58):
the pecking order than at this point, and I think
he's going to stay in the dugout, and I think
it ends up being three nothing Dodgers before Surezer comes out,
other than like him going to get sures or in
like the third or fourth inning of a zero zero game.
That's that's what I was kind of trying to say earlier.
Speaker 3 (23:17):
Yeah, I can see that, and I do agree the value.
If you're looking to play aside, I think he's got
to be on Toronto here. Both these teams have proven
that could win on the road, and so to lay
two dollars or in this general range, it's a little
bit too high. Yeah, when you take a look at
that Toronto lineup they do have. You know, they've got
guys in there that Miles Straw gets to start once
(23:40):
in a while. Kind of f Leff is not a
bad player, but he's beginning more of these starts because
they've got Bashett coming back and trying to play him
at a different position. That's kind of risky. I thought
that was risky before they talked about it, putting in
a second base that he's really never played in the before.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (24:03):
Yeah, it's tough. It's tough. I like I said, I haven't.
I haven't had a lot of success so far in
this series, so I'm not you know, I didn't put
out any big plays, but it's still it's a situation
where my confidence wouldn't be as high right now as
it would be during the regular season because it's a
different ballgame. We've seen the teams play. We know what
(24:26):
the managers are going to do. Hey, when it comes
to the World Series in the playoffs, every day is
if it's in a situation where it comes down to
it both guys, both managers are going to make decisions
now to win this game as opposed to a little
bit in the future. I will it hats off to
measure League Baseball. I'm so used to the NBA. When
(24:49):
you get to the playoffs, they have so many days
off between the games. I believe there's only two days off.
They had yesterday in the travel day, and they'll have
another travel day, So hats off to Meajor League Baseball
in that regard. I always like it when you've got
a situation where you've got to worry about the guys
having enough enough gas in the tank, pitching two days
(25:12):
and three days in a row. That kind of thing.
That's what baseball is, and I hate it when they
have too many days off. So yeah, I hate to
be a guy that doesn't give a major opinion on it.
But it's I'm not going to best something just because
it's on TV. People expect it. So it'll be the
Dodgers or nothing for me if I put out anything
(25:34):
for the Dodgers or excuse me not the Dodgers Toronto
and the over to me. But if I put out
on anything, it's probably gonna be the Over.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
So I want to go to a question in the
chat quick. But I also want to just like go
back to because I think we kind of are in
agreement in that in that respect that it would probably
be Blue Jays or passing the side as far as
your total is concerned.
Speaker 1 (25:56):
You know the scenario.
Speaker 2 (25:57):
I just sort of hashed out has me leaning toward
the first five over because that right now I'm seeing
books that have first five over four at like minus
twenty five minus one thirty.
Speaker 1 (26:10):
Now you're gonna have to shop around. I do think
you'll end up seeing some over four and a half,
so I would like that far less.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
But if you think about it, first five over four,
if if that scenario does happen where Schurezer gets himself
in trouble, and and there's there's reason to think that
may happen because again last start only starting the playoffs
so far, four Walks pitched out of trouble. The last
(26:36):
time we saw him prior to that, I believe was
the end of the regular season against the Red Sox
where he gave up ten hits. So let's just say
that that scenario happens in the first second or third
inning and you get that crooked number. I mean, let's
if you get a three run shot all all of
a sudden, you only need to scrape across one other
run to get to four, and you're free rolling right
(26:59):
there like that.
Speaker 1 (27:00):
I don't hate that.
Speaker 2 (27:01):
I think if I was going to look at the total,
I prefer the first five total and I know it's
like maybe a little bit counterintuitive because you take out
the bullpens, which we you know, we both kind of
agree are not elite bullpens. But having that four flat
in the first five, to me makes some sense. Do
you have any opinion on first five as opposed to game.
Speaker 3 (27:22):
Yeah, I could see that. I'm looking right now at
the first five team totals. I see Toronto at one
and a half. I see the Dodgers at two and
a half bet slightly to the under. Yeah, I'd be
interested in either of the Dodgers over at pretty much
even money. If they score three in the first five,
you get that, you get the win. But the four
(27:45):
is better because you get to push on the four.
And that's something that is very important in the small
sample size is getting that push. And as you mentioned
right now, the first half a cent, it sitting at
four over basically thirty. Most of the other places are
(28:06):
at four and a half to the under minus one,
twenty one, twenty five. So if you can get the four,
I wouldn't. I wouldn't lay over more than one thirty.
That would be a decent choice, or play the Dodgers
over two and a half. In the first five and
get them it basically even money.
Speaker 2 (28:23):
Mark Rock says, what's your opinion on both pitcher strikeouts. Well,
I'll go back to a point that you made with Glass. Now,
he he doesn't get much swing and miss outside of
the zone. It's it's weird because because it's but it's
it's weird because he gets a lot of swing and
miss on balls that are in the zone. And that,
(28:44):
to me is interesting because this Blue Jays lineup is very,
very good. Like there, I mean that that's like almost
like it's you know, it goes without saying. I feel
like at this point, it's it's well known that the
Blue Jays have a great lineup.
Speaker 1 (29:00):
They're in the World Series. They've been one of the
better lineups all year.
Speaker 2 (29:03):
But I've kind of complimented them all season and on
one through nine, it's it's really good at bad after
really good at that. Look at just look at it,
even when guys like Ernie Clement, Andre Jim Andezkuz, guys
like that at the bottom of the order having great
at bats. Schneider, I mean, you could literally just throw
any name out there on this roster for the most part,
(29:24):
and they're having a like they go up and give
you a professional at that. So you look at someone
like Blastow who's got all of these accolades. He's priced
as the the the what do you call it. He's
priced as the elite option. Yet he doesn't get a
ton of swing and miss on pitches outside the zone,
and because of that, he will walk batters. So to me,
(29:47):
the I would almost look at a Glassdow strikeout under
for that because of that, because you know that the
Dodgers being minus two hundred at home and Glasgow being
the pitching favorite is gonna is going to forced you
to pay a premium on him in most markets. So
for me, I look at glass now strikeouts under because
he doesn't get a ton of swinging miss outside the zone.
(30:09):
And if you put the ball on his own, Brian Leonard,
these Blue Jays can hit that ball.
Speaker 3 (30:13):
Yeah. Yeah. Going back to Game one, Blake Snell, you
know whatever it was his last day starts, he'd given
up a total like two or four earned runs. I
don't know if it was that situation, like I said,
was on five for those teams. But Blake Snell came
out and he he's the guy who gets a lot
of swinging mess. He didn't get any swinging mess against
Toronto and that first game, and that was very impressive
(30:37):
to me that Toronto could go through that lineup or
with Blake Snell and he couldn't put anybody away. He
was getting to two strikes all the time and he
couldn't put them away, and he had a look on
his face like, geez, what's what's going on here? Yamamoto
didn't have that. Yamamoto was able to get the swinging mess.
(30:58):
Just one of the best starts I've ever seen in
the World Series. And hats off to him. But now
now we've got a guy that's somewhat in the middle
in Glass now and uh yeah, this is a very
good Toronto lineup. We'll see what happens if you can't
get the swinging mess. Maybe maybe we see something similar
to to Game one for Toronto for their their batting
(31:20):
in that regard. And yeah, this is this is a
tough both both. Obviously, when you get to the World Series,
you've got two very good offenses for the most part,
no matter who you put out there. But the Dodgers,
Dodgers are great and you take a look at somebody
mentioned the other day, you've probably you may have three
(31:40):
to four Hall of famers leading off that leading off
that their batting going to a townty Bets Freeman and
Smith and to Oscar's really good too so and Max
Muntsey since he got the glasses, he's been better, although
he hasn't done a whole lot lately. Did hit the
home run the other day. So yeah, two very good off,
two very good lineups, all the way through a somewhat
(32:01):
questionable pitching. Yep, that's the way I would look be over.
Speaker 2 (32:06):
Brian Ate says, you know Snell couldn't get the first
pitch over for a strike.
Speaker 1 (32:10):
He was pitching from behind the whole game.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
That's I guess that's my concern here for like last now,
and if you're talking about strikeouts, is he he's either
gonna be he's more than like he more likely to
just come in the zone right off the bat because
the stuff is so good. So like, I don't think
Glassau is gonna come out and get behind and counts,
(32:33):
but I do think he's gonna come out and try
to hit you with like ninety six right off the bat.
Speaker 1 (32:38):
It's probably gonna be in the zone now.
Speaker 2 (32:42):
Against most of the league, or he's gonna drop that
curveball and against most of the league, he's gonna get
ahead of hitters doing that. But you're talking about Barger, Guerrero.
I mean, these are these are guys that can come
out and hit a good ninety six mile an hour
four seemer somewhere right or like they can do like that.
Speaker 1 (33:02):
That would be my concern.
Speaker 2 (33:03):
So I think to answer the original question, I would
go under glass now strikeouts because of where it's where
it's priced. And on the other side, I would go
over sures or strikeouts because I think he's gonna have
I think he's gonna get himself into some full counts
where he's gonna have to make like a tough pitch.
And that's actually the one that's the one scenario where
(33:26):
I'll take sureser like he's in account and like just
being able to mentally focus himself to make that pitch
and get the strikeout. I'll take him in that scenario
where I don't really want him, is like when he
eventually makes a mistake and gives up three four runs.
But if you're talking about because sures are strikeouts, it's
only like you get plus money on four and a half.
(33:48):
That means you can probably get three and a half
or four at like minus one ten. That that to me,
I mean unless he just gets absolutely mauled and he's
out of this game by the third inning, you got
it like your chances. Sures are getting four strikeouts, five
strike I mean you got to at least think it's
a it's a worthy like five strikeouts for like plus
(34:08):
one forty or plus one fifty. I mean, that doesn't
seem that crazy to me, So I think I'd go Sures.
Speaker 3 (34:15):
Are over if you had to play it possibly. I'm
just still concerned. We're having the last two days off,
they've got everybody ready, or your last yes, yesterday off,
They've got everybody ready. When he got a stat here,
we got your entire bullpen in what you're expecting to
be The liiesmaker doesn't think it's going to be a
(34:36):
pretty even game. I think it will be.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
Yeah, and again this is you know, we do this
show all year, and it's much easier to, in my opinion,
provide value to the viewer during the regular season, of course,
when we've got fifteen games and we can pick off
little edges. But we want to come out and do
a show for the World series and give you as
many sort of angles as possible. So I'll just kind
(35:01):
of summarize mine before we sign off here.
Speaker 1 (35:04):
I think it blewed. If I had to play.
Speaker 2 (35:07):
Aside, it's Blue Jays plus one and a half. I
agree with you on the over I think I prefer
over four in the first five. And then for the
strikeout props, I think I would go glass now under.
If I absolutely had to pick a strikeout prop, it
would be glass now under because again I I think
he will you know, I think that he's gonna lack
some of the swing and miss on pitches outside of
(35:29):
the zone. Uh that you really really needed, my opinion,
to like totally shut down this Blue Jays lineup. So
that's so that's what I got, Brian, What about you?
Just a quick summary on like any angles that you're
looking at.
Speaker 3 (35:40):
Yeah, I'm not a prop guy TV unfortunately. Uh in Japan,
I got. I guess Trump must be in Japan today,
which is why I.
Speaker 1 (35:51):
Said, like roads are closed?
Speaker 3 (35:52):
He said roads, Uh, yeah, because and they and that
happens a lot. I live here in Las Vegas. Anytime
a politician is in town, it's bad traffic in Vegas
all time anyway, but it really shusts everything down. And
I think he lives slightly out of town, so it's
it's a situation where he just can't it's not sure
(36:13):
he could get back at that time, as opposed.
Speaker 2 (36:14):
To to be said, well, remember it's uh, he's he's
in outside of Tokyo. So it's you know, ten eleven
o'clock at at night when by the time we need
the show. And he was just he hit us up
like an hour, like maybe thirty minutes before the show
or forty five minutes before the show. He's like, yeah,
there's no way I'm getting home here.
Speaker 1 (36:30):
So yeah, he must be Uh. I got to imagine Tokyo.
Speaker 2 (36:34):
He was saying that, like the traffic out there is
pretty crazy, like it's very densely populated, like.
Speaker 3 (36:42):
In well, he's lived in Phoenix for most of his life.
In Phoenix right now is even worse than Vegas when
it comes to traffic. Even when I go to spring
training just to get to try to get across town.
All the ballparks are within forty minutes of each other,
but it seems like a lot of times you get
stuck in traffic all day long in Phoenix, so he's traffic.
Speaker 2 (37:04):
How many people are gonna leave this World Series game early?
It's a shame, but you know there's gonna be quite
a few people that do it right.
Speaker 3 (37:13):
You know what's interesting? And I know enough you've noticed
this all and it's not hasn't do it today's game.
You could tell how many Toronto people showing up for
the baseball games that are not season ticket holders. They're
not really Toronto fans because every time Toronto hit the ball,
no matter how hard, how far, the crowd would go crazy.
(37:36):
It's like a simple pop up in the infield. Oh
and it just tells you there's a lot of people there.
And we've you know, pres was talking about that the
other day. It was like twelve hundred dollars to go
to the game, and Press has got more money than
than the rest of us combined. But h and he
wouldn't even do it. And he's he's a crazy guy
and he wouldn't even pay those prices. It is just
(38:00):
the way it is. When you get into the playoffs,
you don't have people always tell me they think that
you've got that more of a home advantage. You really
don't because they cheer everything. It's sort of it's sort
of like when you go, you know, you see the
games and yeah, I know you do the Korean and
the Japanese baseball and all that stuff. They're cheering the
entire game. So is that the same kind of advantages
(38:24):
you want if you're you're the home team. I don't know,
never been to one of those games.
Speaker 2 (38:29):
Yeah, I mean it's like Brian, Brian Yates has taken easy.
We're going to stay till the end of cheer our victory. Yeah,
but like most most people at Dodger Stadium are out
of there early.
Speaker 1 (38:37):
Like it's it's been a thing for a very long time.
Speaker 2 (38:39):
If you're not if you're staying till the very end
at Dodger Stadium, you are not.
Speaker 1 (38:44):
Getting out for a very long time typically.
Speaker 2 (38:46):
So who knows, I don't know if they improved that
at all, but I'm pretty sure it's still the same deal.
But at any rate, appreciate you guys joining us at
at almost eighteen hundred live viewers and hopefully we gave
you something to think about for this Game three, I
will promoe something real quick since Tokyo Brandon is not here.
(39:07):
He's our promo guy, and I always forget to actually,
you know, promote the website, talk about what we're doing.
I've got a really good NFL run. I had one
play yesterday. It was a five percent play on the Jets.
They came back, they won the game. I just needed
them to cover, but they won the game, so that
was great. And I've got another NFL play that I've made,
(39:27):
a five percenter that goes tonight. Honestly, I didn't even
I wasn't even gonna make it a five percent, Brian,
but I've been on such a role in the NFL,
specifically in these primetime games, I had to just say,
I'm just like, you know, if it's not broke, don't
fix it. So I do have a five percenter in
the NFL tonight, and because of that, I will post
(39:47):
the baseball if I play it. I will post anything
I play in Major League Baseball for free on my
page at wager Talk. So make sure you're checking out
the wager Talk Free picks page. If you go over
to wager talk dot com, click tab that says free picks.
Speaker 1 (40:01):
All of the Candycappers.
Speaker 2 (40:02):
I have a three pick out for the day will
show up in a nice column, and I'm gonna put
whatever thoughts I have in the baseball game are going
to go there today. So check that out if you're interested.
Speaker 3 (40:14):
Yeah, and I'll touch on that. Tomorrow is a five
dollars Tuesday, and as of two weeks ago, I think
anybody could put up as many five dollars plays as
you want, as long as it's not a five percent play.
So I've only been putting up to one. Maybe tomorrow's
card will be a little bit better, stronger card, but
(40:36):
that's a great way to try out all of our
handicappers on Tuesday. Five dollars Tuesday. You won't get the
five percent plays, but you'll get everything else. And for me,
my fours are pretty much as rare as the fives are,
so hopefully we'll have something tomorrow. I know it's a
better day in hockey than today. They've only got a
couple of games in hockey and have a baseball game,
(40:57):
and you know in the football game, so not as
much for me to hand iticap. But if I find
anything on today's card, it will go up today. But
tomorrow's the day to save great savings. One dollar, excuse me,
five dollars Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (41:11):
And we will be back to discuss game four in
the morning, same time, nine am Eastern. We'll talk about
what we saw in game three and we'll break down
Game four. I have if this game plays out a
certain way, I think I think Game four will be
I have yet to bet it. I have yet to
bet anything in the World series, but I have a
feeling if if game three goes a certain way, I
(41:34):
will likely have a play in Game four, and we'll
talk about that tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (41:38):
But like I said, keep an eye on the site
for free picks.
Speaker 2 (41:40):
Today five percent NFL is up and well, I think
we'll have the trio back in the morning.
Speaker 1 (41:47):
Assuming Tokyo Brandon makes it home. We don't know.
Speaker 2 (41:50):
We don't know where he is right now, but it's
assuming he makes it home before tomorrow. I think we'll
have the three of us back to break down Game four.
We'll see a nine am Eastern. Thanks for tuning in,
and good luck tonight with all your bets.
Speaker 3 (42:07):
Mhm mm hmm.
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