October 15, 2025 • 31 mins
Looking for the best MLB Playoffs picks, predictions, and betting tips for Wednesday, October 15, 2025? Tune in to Total Bases with expert handicappers Adam Trigger, Bryan Leonard and Tokyo Brandon as they break down today’s MLB matchups with sharp insights and actionable advice.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
All right, welcome in. It's Wednesday. It is time for
Total Bases Tokyo. Brandon will be back tomorrow, but today
you've got myself, Brian Leonard, and we're gonna be talking
Game three of the ALCS Jays Mariners. Brian, just I
want to throw this to you because this is very
interesting to me, and I didn't think we would be
in this predicament right now going into the respective game threes.
(00:25):
We did not have a home team win a game
in the first two the first two. So the home
teams right now in the LCS round are zero to four.
You don't see that very often? Is that making it
as challenging for you as it is for me to
come up with? Like where these series are going to
go from here?
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Yeah, it's strange. Ralph Michaels was nice enough to send
something over in the slack. He's got some numbers. It's
smallest ample sizes. But the home teams in game three
after sweeping on the road have been pretty good, so
we could see more of you know, the teams that
are head winning. And if a team gets up three
to nothing, I usually expect the team with the team
(01:11):
that loses, especially in the NBA I use a lot
of it where they don't have the heart and they
don't want to have to go and play another game again.
It kind of knocks them out. So this is a
key game for both of these team both these series.
Is yeah, I thought, you know this Milwaukee team. I
like the way they're set up, But the Dodgers just
show you how starting pitching is so important that you
(01:35):
can have guys. I mean the bullpen. The Dodgers have
struggled with their bullpen all year long, and in these
series lately, the Dodgers don't even need the bullpen. They
got these starters going all game and it's uh, I
hate to say it, but the coach has done some
good jobs keeping them starters in there for the Dodgers,
(01:55):
and I'm not a big fan of his. And you
know in the other series too, Seattle's If you ask
anybody who the best pitching staff is when they're healthy
in the America League, that's Seattle. So if you're a
big starting pitcher fan, these are the two teams you
probably expected to be up to nothing at this point.
I do want to point out for the park factors,
(02:15):
the home runs today are supposed to be down ten
from a normal T Mobile Park game, doubles and cripples
down eight, singles down one, and runs down seven. So
it's going to be tough to score some runs in
this game. If if you're looking for the over, we've
got Bieber going against Kirby here, and I'll just get
(02:38):
into my analysis on the game and we'll let you
pick it up from there. But Kirby's about a maybe
about a one twenty five favorite here with a total
of seven. Slightly to the over, at least from what
I remember. Seattle's hit much better on the road than
they head at home. Toronto hits pretty well and it
done pretty well on the road. But the key in
(03:00):
this game to me is the starting pitching. Shane Bieber.
Loved the guy. He was great for Cleveland. Just terrific guy.
He's only thirty thirty years old and he's had a
terrific career already in eight seasons. But you know, if
you take a look at just his numbers, the three
point five to seventy ARRA one point zero two whip,
you would think all of this is the same old Bieber,
(03:22):
But he is expected Ray four point five to seven.
And although He's only thrown forty in a third pit
innings on the season, so not enough for a lot
of the stackcast numbers to you know, verify it a
little bit. Basketball velocity twenty thirty percentile ARAA. Jackson velosity
has been bad. Verrel rate's been bad, heart hit rates
(03:43):
been bad. Throws five pitches the most is this four
seamer thirty six percent, but the normal already throws at
ninety five miles an hour. His is ninety two point six.
So I hope for Toronto's sake, and I hope for
Bieber said that he will be better with the offseason
and be back stronger next year, but right now he's
(04:04):
not a guy I feel confident on throwing out there
and putting my money on in the game that they
need to win. I talked about that they can't go
down on three. Not too many teams come back from
that unless the Red Socks against the Yankees, I believe
a few years ago. But George Kirby, another guy that's
had some injuries this year, only threw one hundred and
twenty six innings after one hundred and ninety one basically
(04:25):
each of the last two years. His he ARA is
a little high at four point two to one, expected
three point eighty five, whip one point one point nine.
All those numbers are more higher than they've been in
the last few years. But he was came back from
injury and they brought him back early, struggled early, but
he's pitching pretty well right now. Still his average hecxi
velossiti in the fourteenth percent, title harder rate, hard hit
(04:48):
rate twenty first, and barrel forty seventh mean that he
can be hit. But I think he's pitching a lot
better now than he has in the past. He's excellent,
walks eighty nine percent, title fast, blah blah through six pitches.
If I take a look at this game, I don't
want to play the under because I'm a little worried
(05:11):
about Baber and you're getting a seven, and there's not
too many games that Toronto has played this year with
a seven total. I think Toronto's offense is better than
what they have shown. Seattle's been really good offensively for
a while now. If I play this game, and I
did set out yesterday, I didn't have anything. I said that.
(05:32):
I just didn't get enough on Milwaukee. I thought it
was we talked about or La being the best team
in baseball. I just think you're quite good enough.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
Now.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
I was kind of worried about the starting pitcher for Milwaukee,
and that's the way I feel about Toronto today. So
if I play this one, I'm gonna play the over.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
I agree with that. I think that's the same way
I would look here. I wish I sat out yesterday.
I talked myself into the Brewers that I Just before
I get into my breakdown of this game, I want
to comment on a couple of things. So one, going
back to your point yesterday's game, part of my part
of my angle, part of my handicap was you know,
if the Brewers can get to the late innings sort
(06:14):
of tied or in the lead, that that that I
think their edges against the Dodgers bullpen. We never saw
the Dodgers bullpen, which was surprising to me. Listen, it
was a dream start for the Brewers. You had a
clean top of the first you come out, the first
batter goes Yard. I'm sitting here thinking, oh, this is
this is great. This is exactly how I wanted this
game to start. And Yamamoto Cruiz is the rest of
(06:36):
the game. Complete game, so really just the only the
only takeaway there for me is is kind of where
you were at. Dodgers look really good, and I think
if there was a team that's going to get back
into the series, it's it's more likely this one if
there was a way to you know, Brewers might be
up against it going on the road to LA, but
we'll see. I want to the other comment I want
(06:58):
to make before I get into breaking down this game
much different than NHL and NBA is baseball series, like
every day is still a is still, in my opinion,
a new day. There's new pitching, there's new there's new
nuance when it comes to pitchers that are available, or
how how a team wants to go from starter to relievers.
It is far more likely in my opinion, that a
(07:21):
baseball series can flip very quickly, as opposed to like
if I'm watching NBA and I'm not an NBA guy
and I'm not an NHL guy, so I don't. I
don't really. I watched them as a casual fan and
like Lebron and whoever are just beating someone's face and
for three straight games, to me, it's like that fourth games,
you know, even if they like, take one off, it's okay.
(07:44):
Maybe it doesn't happen in game four. Game fives usually
go in that way. It's it's probably not gonna be
a series. I would not like baseball. I wouldn't look
at it like that, because again, you have it's a
new day, you have new starting pitchers. If one of
these games goes a certain way, then the next day
is a new day as well, and you have new
starting pitchers. And it's like, so I don't think that
(08:06):
either of these teams are done per se. But when
I look at the matchup and now we'll go back
into this game, I'm kind of with you. I don't
really want Bieber. That's not like, that's not where I
necessarily want to go here. I played against him in
the last round. I didn't think he looked good. So again,
both of these guys have had to work around injuries
(08:30):
in this season. But Bieber was was far more. It
was a far bigger injury. It was a far I
think he he had to essentially, he missed all of
last year, rehabbed the beginning of this year. I know
he was up here in Buffalo for over a month.
It was a very extended rehab and so you know,
(08:51):
like we're he had that like sort of good run. See,
this is where you have to like, really everything's a
case by case basis. Shane Bieber pitched forty and a
third innings in Major League Baseball this season. That's in
the MLB, So you obviously pitched probably more than that
when you count all of his rehab starts together. He
probably had another forty plus in the minors. But he
(09:12):
came into major League Baseball essentially in August when it
was his April right, it was his it was his
April one, it was his opening day. Everyone else is
out here dragon because it's it's the dog days. And
he's literally starting his season in August. So I look
at the regular season Bieber one point zero two whip,
A three, five seven ERA. That stretch that he had
(09:35):
was really and that was really good. And I asked myself,
if he had four more months of the season, would
his numbers look like that? And I can pretty confidently
say they probably would not. Like, there's no way if
he had another four months of the regular season this
year that he's got a whip that's that's essentially one
that's so Basically you're saying that his whip's the same
(09:57):
as Yamamoto's whip, right, Like, that's because that's right. Yamamoto
came in a regular season with zero point nine nine.
Biaber's one point zero two very deceiving. I think if
you give Bieber so I'm just going to use the
two pitchers that threw yesterday as a as a baseline,
both through about one hundred and seventy innings this year.
I think if you gave him another one hundred and
thirty innings in the big leagues this year, uh, that's
(10:19):
probably more like one three, one two five, one three
something like that, you're gonna see that era is probably
a little bit over four. That's what I think. That's
where I think he's kind of at right now in
terms of like the pitcher he's probably is the rest
of you. Like you said, he's thirty years old. I mean,
he's been around for a while, comes off of a
huge injury. I'm not saying he can't have a big
(10:40):
year at some point, but everything I've seen in terms
of like I watched every one of his starts of
Buffalo watching him really like the closest in the playoffs
so far that that just doesn't inspire a ton of
confidence going on the road. Now, you could say a
lot of those things about George Kirby as well, having
to work around, you know, a mid season injury coming back,
(11:03):
his command hasn't been there. To your point, Brian Exit
v low hard hit, I think it's because his command's
not fully there. So it's like when he's missing because
he doesn't. He just doesn't. He just hasn't had the
feel that he had, let's say last year when he
threw one hundred last two years twenty twenty three, twenty
twenty four, one hundred and ninety one innings both years
(11:25):
essentially whip in the low one like like one point
oh four to one point seven, elite command, top of
his game. When you have to come back from an
injury mid season, like sometimes it's sometimes you need an offseason, right,
And so that's kind of how I've looked at Kirby
this year. Now to your point, go back to September fourteenth,
fourteen strikeout game against the Angels. Since then, a six innings,
(11:49):
six scoreless, seven strikeouts against the against the Astros, five innings,
ten k's against the Dodgers and then he was pretty
respectable in his two appearances against the Tigers, you had.
Both both were only five innings, so he you know,
he didn't work super deep into either. Three ear and runs,
fourteen strikeouts. If I'm gonna pick a side, I think
(12:11):
it's probably gonna have to be Kirby and the Mariners.
But I think with you, I think over seven is light.
I know we saw some fly balls in that Tiger
series that didn't leave the yard. I wonder if that's
creeping into people's minds where it's like, yeah, Team Mobile
is a tough park to hit the ball out of.
I don't think that necessarily means there's gonna be a
shortage of offense here. So Brian, I think I'm with you.
(12:33):
I think we have a little consensus play here for
Game three. I like over seven as well.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
Yeah, a couple things. Number One, when I go back
to talking about teams three and oh or whatever, it
makes more sense that in hockey and in the NBA,
it would be it would be tougher to do because
they're physical sports, especially hockey. I mean, these guys, if
you follow hockey, they're a tough as hell, and uh,
(12:59):
in baseball, it's you know, it's more of a finness sport.
And they obviously played twice as many games, So it's
the teams players in the NBA could not play one
hundred and sixty two games in hockey. Obviously not either,
so that's something to keep in mind. Also, when we
were talking about the Brewers game, and I hate to
keep going back on this, I didn't even give my
(13:20):
clients a yes or no if I was having to
play till late because I wanted to see if Smith
was going for the Dodgers, And as soon as I
saw that he was going, I said I was passing.
That's the thing with the Dodgers is not only do
they have a guy that throws out the base runners,
which is what Milwaukee does. That's a big part of
Milwaukee's game. They also have starters that are elite starters
(13:41):
going deep. So if you're getting one three hits I
mean Milwaukee, it takes Milwaukee completely out of their game.
That's the way to beat Milwaukee is a great pitching
and the situation where you've got a catcher and there's
a few of them out there that you just don't
run on, and that that's really why Milwaukee was such
(14:02):
a bad matchup going against the Dodgers. If Milwaukee was
playing another team, I think Milwaukee have a very good
chance to beat them. But the Dodgers were a two
to one favorite going into the series for a reason. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
Absolutely, I again, there wasn't and that's probably why I'm
you know, I'm still kicking myself for yesterday.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
There was.
Speaker 1 (14:22):
There wasn't any question to me that the Dodgers were
the best of these four teams. We talked about that
really last series and then prior to Game one, like,
I don't think you would. I think you and I
kind of agreed that that was from a from a
talent standpoint, they were far far superior. I mean, I
literally am willing to say far superior than the three
teams remaining. I thought, I have to say, I thought
(14:42):
the Brewers, even with that talent discrepancy, just the way
that they're built, would have would have made this a
more competitive series. Now, again, don't don't write the Brewers
off just because they've lost two games. I mean, that's
that's kind of the beauty of baseball. And we'll we'll
talk about that when Tokyo. Brandon is back tomorrow. And
we've got starters and we've got a number on the game.
(15:04):
But like these these series could could totally turn around.
All it takes is one game. However it is it is.
It's interesting that we had four home teams or four games,
and the home team did not win a single game,
especially in the case of the of the Blue Jays.
That you know, the Brewers were underdogs of both their games,
(15:26):
but the brew the Blue Jay's not winning one of those.
It's gonna really be interesting to see how that plays
out tonight. I think I'm with you, though, Brian, I don't.
If I get there with a side, it's probably Seattle.
If let's say the series would split one one, I
think I I think I'd be more inclined maybe to
go with Seattle, even though that might be a flawed
(15:46):
that might be flawed thinking.
Speaker 2 (15:48):
I think I agree with you on that. You know,
Mark always uses the fat and happy thing. Well, Seattle's
coming back, you know. I like the way they looked
after the game, and especially when the Big Dumper got
his interview. He goes, hey, he's got the shirt on,
says we haven't done anything yet, that kind of thing.
I like that. But if a team comes back one
(16:08):
in one and they go are at home. I would
give the home advantage a little bit better in that
regard with two and zero. I understand that.
Speaker 1 (16:16):
Yeah, I still want to get you guys involved in
the chat. I know it's right now we're getting to
the point in the season where it's one game, the
show is shorter, and I forget that that you get
you know, I still want to sort of chiy. I
want to get the chat involved. David Edgington says Brewers
have no offense. I feel like I'm going to push
back on that a little bit. Do they have no offense?
(16:37):
Or did they just face two of the best starting
pitchers in the Major league in the majors that through
seventeen innings and essentially of like one run ball, Brian Leonard,
what do you? How do you?
Speaker 2 (16:46):
What do you? Well? The part of the Brewers, the
Brewers aren't going to knock you around with the home
runs like the Seattle will or the Yankees or the Dodgers.
But they run the bases very well. And you can't
run the bases if you don't get on base. And
that's all there is to it. And that's a big
part of Their game is their defense and running and
running the bases, and when do you take that away?
(17:09):
You know, the Dodgers have done it well, and like
I said, that's this is probably the worst matchup for
them if they played a team that didn't have such
dominant starting pitching. The Brewers are a great team, There's
no doubt about it. You don't finish the season with
the best record baseball without having some success.
Speaker 1 (17:27):
Queen Rocks thirteen forty one says Toronto doesn't strike out much.
That is true. That being said, George Kirby's been racking
up the strikeouts. I think that's a very interesting matchup
here because he's been getting a lot of swinging miss lately.
And what he's getting swing and miss, that's like when
I see George Kirby have a ten strikeout game and
(17:48):
eight strikeout game, seven strikeouts, I think what we pointed
out the numbers across the two games in the Tigers series,
that tells me he's starting to get back toward the
guy that for two straight full years twenty twenty three
twenty twenty four had a had a one whip as
a starter. So like, I guess what I'm looking at
(18:11):
you know, in terms of like upside here, I think
it's far more likely that Kirby throws a gem than
it is Bieber. Like if I'm just again just trying
to add some you know, well like And that's why
I think I lean Mariners, because I just think the
upside of Kirby here is far greater, and the and
their bullpen is better. I don't care. Like the Blue
(18:32):
Jays had a five bullpenny alra since Jimmy Garcia went
down on July second, the Yankees couldn't make them pay,
But Brian the the Mariners look like they're capable of
doing that.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
Well, Since since you like the the over and you
think kriv is going to have a little bit more success,
and you're worried about Bieber, how about maybe Seattle team
total over something else to take a look at. Yeah,
that makes a lot of sense here, because when you
get the total that low, that's something that can be
easily covered.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
Yeah, and that's a a lot of sites are It
looks like a lot of sites are gonna give you
three and a half juice is somewhat reasonable. Minus one
twenty I see a minus one twenty five. Obviously, shop
around for that I can't really argue with that that
that I feel like that that's probably like for me, Brian,
I think that might be the I'd probably rather play
(19:21):
the team total over with the Mariners then lay minus
one thirty with the Mariners on the side. So again,
these are just a couple of different ways to look
at it, but I think I would try to find
something that with the over. I think I think over
is probably where the value is in this game based
on where it's priced. I think there's there's way too
(19:44):
much stock being put into Tea Mobile Park here. Like,
just because this game is in Seattle and it is
a pitcher friendly park does not mean there's gonna be
no offense in this game. That's kind of how I'm
looking at Game three.
Speaker 2 (19:58):
I can see it.
Speaker 1 (20:00):
Brian. Do you have a Do you have anything to
promote for today? Do you have anything up yet?
Speaker 2 (20:06):
Yeah, I I did lose my football game yesterday. I
won my hockey game, and I won my hockey pre
play in my passed in baseball, I'm number two over
the last month in Major League Baseball, number two overall
in that profit in UH sports, nder camping overall and
(20:28):
working on I just saw today that they did confirm
that they do are doing that weekend promo that they
had last last week. So I'm excited for that because
we did very well one and two on Sundays. Tiny
plays in the NFL, but I believe we're five on
one on Saturday and we've won the Thursday game or
something to that effect. So I'm getting ready to put
up my my college football place for today, and I'm
(20:51):
really excited about the weekend. I'm doing the puck time
today over with Andrew and Carmine. They'll be at a
clock here Pacific eleven eastern, so looking forward to that.
But yeah, it's uh, it's been a good run. Unfortunately,
I did lose the you know, the college football player yesterday,
(21:12):
but it was a no show for Western Kentucky and
it was ugly, and that's gonna happen once in a while.
You bet enough, you're gonna get one of those out there.
So unfortunately happened yesterday. But hey, overall did pretty well.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
I have no plays up for today. I don't know
that I will so i'll uh. I have to Jake,
this is a great comment, Jake. You have he goes trigger.
You have to remember in two thousand when the Dusan
Bears are down three and fourth to Game seven, only
to have the Hondai Unicorns pull off the wind to
stop a comeback. Just just two year two thousand, KBO,
I couldn't have told you who was in the league
(21:46):
at that point. However, I'm still very invested in the
kb OH. We now have the semi final series is set,
so no KBO for a couple of days. They will
resume play. I believe on Friday, what's Friday morning for
us uh Sam Sung Hanua, probably see Cody Ponce out
there against most likely maybe Ariel Gerrado, a couple of
(22:09):
that former MLB guys going at it in that one.
That should be a great series, and I'll have KBO
plays up. The one thing I will promote since I
don't have any picks to sell right now, is the
fact that we're gonna be doing this show through this show,
meaning this format for college basketball, except it's gonna be
called Full Court Press, another name that I made up
(22:31):
and I think is good, and it's gonna be myself,
Rob Vino and Brian Power. So time slot is going
to be similar. I think we're gonna start I think
we're starting one hour later, so I believe it'll be
ten am live as opposed to nine am live. Just
trying to fit in the programming schedule that Wager Talk has,
so I think they want me to put it in
(22:52):
the ten am time slot, and we'll go five days
a week. And I see, I'm over here looking at
my savat pages, Brian, I see George Kirby from Elon University.
I see Shane Bieber from UC Santa Barbara, and I'm
instantly fired up for college basketball. And so we will Basically,
we should have a nice seamless transition here. For the
(23:12):
most part. We're going to do the Baseball Show right
through the World Series, and then I believe it's November three.
Whenever that first Monday in November is November three, We're
hitting the ground running five days a week. College basketball.
It'll be myself, Brian Leonard or Brian Power, Rob Bino,
and who knows, maybe Brian Leonard will jump in if
one of those guys needs a day off at some point.
Speaker 2 (23:33):
Yeah, I've had a lot of success in college basketball,
but I can't talk college basketball like you guys do.
I can talk baseball at the back of my hand.
I'm on the Hockey show. I've had a lot of
scess in hockey. I can't talk hockey like what that
Canaviian's on the show have been watching their entire lives,
you know. So I don't make many appearances on shows
like that. But yeah, I've had success in it. The
(23:55):
one thing that's really struggled with for me is the
NFL the last couple of years. And who knows, maybe
maybe it's just too hard for me. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (24:06):
Listen, I'll and I'll I'll harp on this it is
I don't and again this will probably you know, this
is I don't understand how you're an expert at like
five different things. It just it just doesn't make sense
hard to do to me. I can't possibly like and
I'll just even even say it, like, I can't possibly
do something else if I'm trying to do if I'm
(24:28):
trying to do baseball at the level that I feel
like it should be done, and then college basketball, I
really can't do anything else. That's why like football, I
kind of I'll dip my like right now, I mean,
I'm hot in the NFL, and I I feel like
the NFL though Brian is like, you know, I don't
think anyone is a huge edge on the NFL these days,
(24:51):
but it's like we we we can all kind of
crunch numbers quickly. And so for me, I'm just not
going to ask questions right now. The NFL players are winning,
I'm going to keep putting them out. If they're winning.
My tune will change drastically if one or two loses, Like,
I'm just not going to be like firing huge NFL
volume as far as college football is concerned, Like again,
(25:11):
I don't know how you do all these different things.
Like for me, I've only put a like I can
tell you right here, it's right here on my list.
I've put fourteen college football plays out this year, and
really they're coming from the relationships I've made. When I'm
traveling around through college basketball once in a while, I'll
get a little insight and I'm like, yeah, that's worth
(25:32):
a bet, But yeah it is. So I don't blame
you one bit. Like if you're locked into the NHL,
which I think is where you should be because you're
very good at it, and as we talked yesterday, it's
a beatable market. Yeah, like that's where you should be,
so I don't blame you one bit.
Speaker 2 (25:47):
Yeah, I think in the NFL the way to beat
it anymore is paying special attention to any injuries that
are happening in game and make your judgments on that
and try to get ahead of the injury because there's
many times you know they have Now I know we're
extending the show, but they have doctors who have seen
the way the guy's going off the field and grabbing
(26:08):
a certain place and he goes, you know, that's probably this,
and he's going to miss five weeks or whatever. Those
guys will say it before the teams will come out
and say it, and if you're tuned into that kind
of thing, you can kind of get ahead of the
line a little bit. In the NFL, I've always been
a numbers guy. Yet if I watch the team play
and I think they're the better team in lines two
and a half, I think it's going to three. I've
(26:28):
grabbed the two and a half. One of those kind
of things. It's simple, it's and that hasn't worked as
well for at least for me lately. And now with teasers,
you can't I can't say you can't play a teaser
but when I used to play it, it's a two
point six point or six point two team teasers plus
one hundred, and it went to minus one ten, then
(26:49):
went to minus one twenty. Now they're charging one thirty five.
I'm not going to give my client a one thirty
five teaser. It's just not worth playing anymore. But other
people feel differently, so but yeah, I can't do.
Speaker 1 (27:02):
That before we get off the show, just because we
jokingly uh ragged on Kelly for not liking baseball the
other day, so I gotta give Kelly props before I
get off the show. One of the one of the
best things like it is was I think before I
even started at Wager Talks, you're probably talking like five
six years ago at this point. I think I came in,
(27:23):
I just got on sports Memo and I put a
couple of plays up, and so she's, look, you know,
I think I lost one and it was like Bayern
Munich or something, and she's like, what is this. I
was like, oh, it's a soccer play. I think I
put it was a champions game. She goes, no, She's like,
you don't. You don't bet soccer. She's like, you just
don't you don't like, what do you do? What are
you doing? Why are you you know? She's like you
(27:45):
got karm like all it, like what are you like?
Is that what you want to do? And I was like, no,
I guess you're right, and I I killed. I was like, no,
you know what, You're right? Why am I messing around
with that? And then I kind of like, you know,
I think I had an NHL play in the playoffs,
and I was like, wait a minute, I I what
what am I doing putting like actual units at risk?
(28:06):
Even if I think I have, like I don't, I
don't grind this out twenty four seven, three sixty five.
So like that's made me much better, like in my opinion,
I mean, you know, I I just I think everyone
should do that. I'll say that. I think anyone in
this that's that's doing what we're doing could benefit from
like just being like, you know what, I'm not an
NBA guy, just just accept it. My edge is in. Uh.
(28:29):
Mckinness has done a great job at this. By the way,
shout out to Andrew mckinnis before we get off. I'll
promote his his show. He he's I think he's done
a great job in like like leaning into NHL CFL,
and I know he's having a really good year because
of it, and I know he's got a new show,
and I think he does. You've done his new show, right.
Speaker 2 (28:49):
I have not, but I've watched it, and it's a
little tough. It's it's like yesterday and he was late
because Montreal wants to overtime. And it's it's hard to
talk about the lines because last night, you know, I'm
on the show today, I had to send them over
what came I was going to talk about last night,
And there's only a couple of places the headline, so
I really didn't know where the value was. So that
(29:11):
makes a little tough. But Andrew and Carmine and even Press,
and I get Press a lot of shit, but he's
he knows hockey much better than I do. But I
know how to handic it. And that's what's cut me ahead.
It's you know, I'm not It's not that I'm a
fan of these sports, although I kind of am, but
I don't need to watch every game. I have other
(29:33):
things I can look at to point me towards some value,
and everything I do, I've got power ratings and if
it's in my Power ratings. There's value. I bet it.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
Jersey Tugging says, this is your only job. Yeah, this
is it, I believe it or not. There's a lot
of prep that goes into even coming on for for
thirty minutes or doing it like doing an hour college
basketball show. I got to like, I got a call
coming up with Robbie, you know, Brian Power, who are like,
this is a lot of a lot of work right here,
(30:04):
and I'm just like that is get buckle up three
hundred and sixty four Division one college college teams and
the chat's gonna be asking questions about Sam Houston State.
Someone better have something to say, so, you know. But anyway,
we you know, just hanging out with you for a
little bit. Today we only had one game. Tomorrow we
(30:25):
will have the star of the show will be back
Tokyo Brandon. He's back tomorrow to talk Dodgers Brewers Game three.
Another great example of just like sticking to what he
knows and crushing it. I mean, he might be the
best example of anyone. He's constantly at the top, and
it's because he's hammering away at markets that he just
(30:45):
knows better than the books. So shout out to TV
and we'll be back in the morning. More total basis,
Nannie and Eastern. Good luck. If you decide to get
involved with the game tonight, obviously check out our pages,
check out the free picks page at wager Talk, and
if you have an extra second or two heading over
to the replay, drop us a comment, maybe a like,
and a subscribe. We want to finish strong this year,
(31:08):
so who knows, maybe we'll come back next year and
they'll give us graphics like Brian Powers got those great graphics. Yeah,
or a producer or something like that. But yeah, we
appreciate you guys tuning in right till the end. I
know it's football season, but we had about six hundred
on the live here. We appreciate you guys, and we
will see you guys in the morning.
All right, welcome in. It's Wednesday. It is time for
Total Bases Tokyo. Brandon will be back tomorrow, but today
you've got myself, Brian Leonard, and we're gonna be talking
Game three of the ALCS Jays Mariners. Brian, just I
want to throw this to you because this is very
interesting to me, and I didn't think we would be
in this predicament right now going into the respective game threes.
(00:25):
We did not have a home team win a game
in the first two the first two. So the home
teams right now in the LCS round are zero to four.
You don't see that very often? Is that making it
as challenging for you as it is for me to
come up with? Like where these series are going to
go from here?
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Yeah, it's strange. Ralph Michaels was nice enough to send
something over in the slack. He's got some numbers. It's
smallest ample sizes. But the home teams in game three
after sweeping on the road have been pretty good, so
we could see more of you know, the teams that
are head winning. And if a team gets up three
to nothing, I usually expect the team with the team
(01:11):
that loses, especially in the NBA I use a lot
of it where they don't have the heart and they
don't want to have to go and play another game again.
It kind of knocks them out. So this is a
key game for both of these team both these series.
Is yeah, I thought, you know this Milwaukee team. I
like the way they're set up, But the Dodgers just
show you how starting pitching is so important that you
(01:35):
can have guys. I mean the bullpen. The Dodgers have
struggled with their bullpen all year long, and in these
series lately, the Dodgers don't even need the bullpen. They
got these starters going all game and it's uh, I
hate to say it, but the coach has done some
good jobs keeping them starters in there for the Dodgers,
(01:55):
and I'm not a big fan of his. And you
know in the other series too, Seattle's If you ask
anybody who the best pitching staff is when they're healthy
in the America League, that's Seattle. So if you're a
big starting pitcher fan, these are the two teams you
probably expected to be up to nothing at this point.
I do want to point out for the park factors,
(02:15):
the home runs today are supposed to be down ten
from a normal T Mobile Park game, doubles and cripples
down eight, singles down one, and runs down seven. So
it's going to be tough to score some runs in
this game. If if you're looking for the over, we've
got Bieber going against Kirby here, and I'll just get
(02:38):
into my analysis on the game and we'll let you
pick it up from there. But Kirby's about a maybe
about a one twenty five favorite here with a total
of seven. Slightly to the over, at least from what
I remember. Seattle's hit much better on the road than
they head at home. Toronto hits pretty well and it
done pretty well on the road. But the key in
(03:00):
this game to me is the starting pitching. Shane Bieber.
Loved the guy. He was great for Cleveland. Just terrific guy.
He's only thirty thirty years old and he's had a
terrific career already in eight seasons. But you know, if
you take a look at just his numbers, the three
point five to seventy ARRA one point zero two whip,
you would think all of this is the same old Bieber,
(03:22):
But he is expected Ray four point five to seven.
And although He's only thrown forty in a third pit
innings on the season, so not enough for a lot
of the stackcast numbers to you know, verify it a
little bit. Basketball velocity twenty thirty percentile ARAA. Jackson velosity
has been bad. Verrel rate's been bad, heart hit rates
(03:43):
been bad. Throws five pitches the most is this four
seamer thirty six percent, but the normal already throws at
ninety five miles an hour. His is ninety two point six.
So I hope for Toronto's sake, and I hope for
Bieber said that he will be better with the offseason
and be back stronger next year, but right now he's
(04:04):
not a guy I feel confident on throwing out there
and putting my money on in the game that they
need to win. I talked about that they can't go
down on three. Not too many teams come back from
that unless the Red Socks against the Yankees, I believe
a few years ago. But George Kirby, another guy that's
had some injuries this year, only threw one hundred and
twenty six innings after one hundred and ninety one basically
(04:25):
each of the last two years. His he ARA is
a little high at four point two to one, expected
three point eighty five, whip one point one point nine.
All those numbers are more higher than they've been in
the last few years. But he was came back from
injury and they brought him back early, struggled early, but
he's pitching pretty well right now. Still his average hecxi
velossiti in the fourteenth percent, title harder rate, hard hit
(04:48):
rate twenty first, and barrel forty seventh mean that he
can be hit. But I think he's pitching a lot
better now than he has in the past. He's excellent,
walks eighty nine percent, title fast, blah blah through six pitches.
If I take a look at this game, I don't
want to play the under because I'm a little worried
(05:11):
about Baber and you're getting a seven, and there's not
too many games that Toronto has played this year with
a seven total. I think Toronto's offense is better than
what they have shown. Seattle's been really good offensively for
a while now. If I play this game, and I
did set out yesterday, I didn't have anything. I said that.
(05:32):
I just didn't get enough on Milwaukee. I thought it
was we talked about or La being the best team
in baseball. I just think you're quite good enough.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
Now.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
I was kind of worried about the starting pitcher for Milwaukee,
and that's the way I feel about Toronto today. So
if I play this one, I'm gonna play the over.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
I agree with that. I think that's the same way
I would look here. I wish I sat out yesterday.
I talked myself into the Brewers that I Just before
I get into my breakdown of this game, I want
to comment on a couple of things. So one, going
back to your point yesterday's game, part of my part
of my angle, part of my handicap was you know,
if the Brewers can get to the late innings sort
(06:14):
of tied or in the lead, that that that I
think their edges against the Dodgers bullpen. We never saw
the Dodgers bullpen, which was surprising to me. Listen, it
was a dream start for the Brewers. You had a
clean top of the first you come out, the first
batter goes Yard. I'm sitting here thinking, oh, this is
this is great. This is exactly how I wanted this
game to start. And Yamamoto Cruiz is the rest of
(06:36):
the game. Complete game, so really just the only the
only takeaway there for me is is kind of where
you were at. Dodgers look really good, and I think
if there was a team that's going to get back
into the series, it's it's more likely this one if
there was a way to you know, Brewers might be
up against it going on the road to LA, but
we'll see. I want to the other comment I want
(06:58):
to make before I get into breaking down this game
much different than NHL and NBA is baseball series, like
every day is still a is still, in my opinion,
a new day. There's new pitching, there's new there's new
nuance when it comes to pitchers that are available, or
how how a team wants to go from starter to relievers.
It is far more likely in my opinion, that a
(07:21):
baseball series can flip very quickly, as opposed to like
if I'm watching NBA and I'm not an NBA guy
and I'm not an NHL guy, so I don't. I
don't really. I watched them as a casual fan and
like Lebron and whoever are just beating someone's face and
for three straight games, to me, it's like that fourth games,
you know, even if they like, take one off, it's okay.
(07:44):
Maybe it doesn't happen in game four. Game fives usually
go in that way. It's it's probably not gonna be
a series. I would not like baseball. I wouldn't look
at it like that, because again, you have it's a
new day, you have new starting pitchers. If one of
these games goes a certain way, then the next day
is a new day as well, and you have new
starting pitchers. And it's like, so I don't think that
(08:06):
either of these teams are done per se. But when
I look at the matchup and now we'll go back
into this game, I'm kind of with you. I don't
really want Bieber. That's not like, that's not where I
necessarily want to go here. I played against him in
the last round. I didn't think he looked good. So again,
both of these guys have had to work around injuries
(08:30):
in this season. But Bieber was was far more. It
was a far bigger injury. It was a far I
think he he had to essentially, he missed all of
last year, rehabbed the beginning of this year. I know
he was up here in Buffalo for over a month.
It was a very extended rehab and so you know,
(08:51):
like we're he had that like sort of good run. See,
this is where you have to like, really everything's a
case by case basis. Shane Bieber pitched forty and a
third innings in Major League Baseball this season. That's in
the MLB, So you obviously pitched probably more than that
when you count all of his rehab starts together. He
probably had another forty plus in the minors. But he
(09:12):
came into major League Baseball essentially in August when it
was his April right, it was his it was his
April one, it was his opening day. Everyone else is
out here dragon because it's it's the dog days. And
he's literally starting his season in August. So I look
at the regular season Bieber one point zero two whip,
A three, five seven ERA. That stretch that he had
(09:35):
was really and that was really good. And I asked myself,
if he had four more months of the season, would
his numbers look like that? And I can pretty confidently
say they probably would not. Like, there's no way if
he had another four months of the regular season this
year that he's got a whip that's that's essentially one
that's so Basically you're saying that his whip's the same
(09:57):
as Yamamoto's whip, right, Like, that's because that's right. Yamamoto
came in a regular season with zero point nine nine.
Biaber's one point zero two very deceiving. I think if
you give Bieber so I'm just going to use the
two pitchers that threw yesterday as a as a baseline,
both through about one hundred and seventy innings this year.
I think if you gave him another one hundred and
thirty innings in the big leagues this year, uh, that's
(10:19):
probably more like one three, one two five, one three
something like that, you're gonna see that era is probably
a little bit over four. That's what I think. That's
where I think he's kind of at right now in
terms of like the pitcher he's probably is the rest
of you. Like you said, he's thirty years old. I mean,
he's been around for a while, comes off of a
huge injury. I'm not saying he can't have a big
(10:40):
year at some point, but everything I've seen in terms
of like I watched every one of his starts of
Buffalo watching him really like the closest in the playoffs
so far that that just doesn't inspire a ton of
confidence going on the road. Now, you could say a
lot of those things about George Kirby as well, having
to work around, you know, a mid season injury coming back,
(11:03):
his command hasn't been there. To your point, Brian Exit
v low hard hit, I think it's because his command's
not fully there. So it's like when he's missing because
he doesn't. He just doesn't. He just hasn't had the
feel that he had, let's say last year when he
threw one hundred last two years twenty twenty three, twenty
twenty four, one hundred and ninety one innings both years
(11:25):
essentially whip in the low one like like one point
oh four to one point seven, elite command, top of
his game. When you have to come back from an
injury mid season, like sometimes it's sometimes you need an offseason, right,
And so that's kind of how I've looked at Kirby
this year. Now to your point, go back to September fourteenth,
fourteen strikeout game against the Angels. Since then, a six innings,
(11:49):
six scoreless, seven strikeouts against the against the Astros, five innings,
ten k's against the Dodgers and then he was pretty
respectable in his two appearances against the Tigers, you had.
Both both were only five innings, so he you know,
he didn't work super deep into either. Three ear and runs,
fourteen strikeouts. If I'm gonna pick a side, I think
(12:11):
it's probably gonna have to be Kirby and the Mariners.
But I think with you, I think over seven is light.
I know we saw some fly balls in that Tiger
series that didn't leave the yard. I wonder if that's
creeping into people's minds where it's like, yeah, Team Mobile
is a tough park to hit the ball out of.
I don't think that necessarily means there's gonna be a
shortage of offense here. So Brian, I think I'm with you.
(12:33):
I think we have a little consensus play here for
Game three. I like over seven as well.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
Yeah, a couple things. Number One, when I go back
to talking about teams three and oh or whatever, it
makes more sense that in hockey and in the NBA,
it would be it would be tougher to do because
they're physical sports, especially hockey. I mean, these guys, if
you follow hockey, they're a tough as hell, and uh,
(12:59):
in baseball, it's you know, it's more of a finness sport.
And they obviously played twice as many games, So it's
the teams players in the NBA could not play one
hundred and sixty two games in hockey. Obviously not either,
so that's something to keep in mind. Also, when we
were talking about the Brewers game, and I hate to
keep going back on this, I didn't even give my
(13:20):
clients a yes or no if I was having to
play till late because I wanted to see if Smith
was going for the Dodgers, And as soon as I
saw that he was going, I said I was passing.
That's the thing with the Dodgers is not only do
they have a guy that throws out the base runners,
which is what Milwaukee does. That's a big part of
Milwaukee's game. They also have starters that are elite starters
(13:41):
going deep. So if you're getting one three hits I
mean Milwaukee, it takes Milwaukee completely out of their game.
That's the way to beat Milwaukee is a great pitching
and the situation where you've got a catcher and there's
a few of them out there that you just don't
run on, and that that's really why Milwaukee was such
(14:02):
a bad matchup going against the Dodgers. If Milwaukee was
playing another team, I think Milwaukee have a very good
chance to beat them. But the Dodgers were a two
to one favorite going into the series for a reason. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
Absolutely, I again, there wasn't and that's probably why I'm
you know, I'm still kicking myself for yesterday.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
There was.
Speaker 1 (14:22):
There wasn't any question to me that the Dodgers were
the best of these four teams. We talked about that
really last series and then prior to Game one, like,
I don't think you would. I think you and I
kind of agreed that that was from a from a
talent standpoint, they were far far superior. I mean, I
literally am willing to say far superior than the three
teams remaining. I thought, I have to say, I thought
(14:42):
the Brewers, even with that talent discrepancy, just the way
that they're built, would have would have made this a
more competitive series. Now, again, don't don't write the Brewers
off just because they've lost two games. I mean, that's
that's kind of the beauty of baseball. And we'll we'll
talk about that when Tokyo. Brandon is back tomorrow. And
we've got starters and we've got a number on the game.
(15:04):
But like these these series could could totally turn around.
All it takes is one game. However it is it is.
It's interesting that we had four home teams or four games,
and the home team did not win a single game,
especially in the case of the of the Blue Jays.
That you know, the Brewers were underdogs of both their games,
(15:26):
but the brew the Blue Jay's not winning one of those.
It's gonna really be interesting to see how that plays
out tonight. I think I'm with you, though, Brian, I don't.
If I get there with a side, it's probably Seattle.
If let's say the series would split one one, I
think I I think I'd be more inclined maybe to
go with Seattle, even though that might be a flawed
(15:46):
that might be flawed thinking.
Speaker 2 (15:48):
I think I agree with you on that. You know,
Mark always uses the fat and happy thing. Well, Seattle's
coming back, you know. I like the way they looked
after the game, and especially when the Big Dumper got
his interview. He goes, hey, he's got the shirt on,
says we haven't done anything yet, that kind of thing.
I like that. But if a team comes back one
(16:08):
in one and they go are at home. I would
give the home advantage a little bit better in that
regard with two and zero. I understand that.
Speaker 1 (16:16):
Yeah, I still want to get you guys involved in
the chat. I know it's right now we're getting to
the point in the season where it's one game, the
show is shorter, and I forget that that you get
you know, I still want to sort of chiy. I
want to get the chat involved. David Edgington says Brewers
have no offense. I feel like I'm going to push
back on that a little bit. Do they have no offense?
(16:37):
Or did they just face two of the best starting
pitchers in the Major league in the majors that through
seventeen innings and essentially of like one run ball, Brian Leonard,
what do you? How do you?
Speaker 2 (16:46):
What do you? Well? The part of the Brewers, the
Brewers aren't going to knock you around with the home
runs like the Seattle will or the Yankees or the Dodgers.
But they run the bases very well. And you can't
run the bases if you don't get on base. And
that's all there is to it. And that's a big
part of Their game is their defense and running and
running the bases, and when do you take that away?
(17:09):
You know, the Dodgers have done it well, and like
I said, that's this is probably the worst matchup for
them if they played a team that didn't have such
dominant starting pitching. The Brewers are a great team, There's
no doubt about it. You don't finish the season with
the best record baseball without having some success.
Speaker 1 (17:27):
Queen Rocks thirteen forty one says Toronto doesn't strike out much.
That is true. That being said, George Kirby's been racking
up the strikeouts. I think that's a very interesting matchup
here because he's been getting a lot of swinging miss lately.
And what he's getting swing and miss, that's like when
I see George Kirby have a ten strikeout game and
(17:48):
eight strikeout game, seven strikeouts, I think what we pointed
out the numbers across the two games in the Tigers series,
that tells me he's starting to get back toward the
guy that for two straight full years twenty twenty three
twenty twenty four had a had a one whip as
a starter. So like, I guess what I'm looking at
(18:11):
you know, in terms of like upside here, I think
it's far more likely that Kirby throws a gem than
it is Bieber. Like if I'm just again just trying
to add some you know, well like And that's why
I think I lean Mariners, because I just think the
upside of Kirby here is far greater, and the and
their bullpen is better. I don't care. Like the Blue
(18:32):
Jays had a five bullpenny alra since Jimmy Garcia went
down on July second, the Yankees couldn't make them pay,
But Brian the the Mariners look like they're capable of
doing that.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
Well, Since since you like the the over and you
think kriv is going to have a little bit more success,
and you're worried about Bieber, how about maybe Seattle team
total over something else to take a look at. Yeah,
that makes a lot of sense here, because when you
get the total that low, that's something that can be
easily covered.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
Yeah, and that's a a lot of sites are It
looks like a lot of sites are gonna give you
three and a half juice is somewhat reasonable. Minus one
twenty I see a minus one twenty five. Obviously, shop
around for that I can't really argue with that that
that I feel like that that's probably like for me, Brian,
I think that might be the I'd probably rather play
(19:21):
the team total over with the Mariners then lay minus
one thirty with the Mariners on the side. So again,
these are just a couple of different ways to look
at it, but I think I would try to find
something that with the over. I think I think over
is probably where the value is in this game based
on where it's priced. I think there's there's way too
(19:44):
much stock being put into Tea Mobile Park here. Like,
just because this game is in Seattle and it is
a pitcher friendly park does not mean there's gonna be
no offense in this game. That's kind of how I'm
looking at Game three.
Speaker 2 (19:58):
I can see it.
Speaker 1 (20:00):
Brian. Do you have a Do you have anything to
promote for today? Do you have anything up yet?
Speaker 2 (20:06):
Yeah, I I did lose my football game yesterday. I
won my hockey game, and I won my hockey pre
play in my passed in baseball, I'm number two over
the last month in Major League Baseball, number two overall
in that profit in UH sports, nder camping overall and
(20:28):
working on I just saw today that they did confirm
that they do are doing that weekend promo that they
had last last week. So I'm excited for that because
we did very well one and two on Sundays. Tiny
plays in the NFL, but I believe we're five on
one on Saturday and we've won the Thursday game or
something to that effect. So I'm getting ready to put
up my my college football place for today, and I'm
(20:51):
really excited about the weekend. I'm doing the puck time
today over with Andrew and Carmine. They'll be at a
clock here Pacific eleven eastern, so looking forward to that.
But yeah, it's uh, it's been a good run. Unfortunately,
I did lose the you know, the college football player yesterday,
(21:12):
but it was a no show for Western Kentucky and
it was ugly, and that's gonna happen once in a while.
You bet enough, you're gonna get one of those out there.
So unfortunately happened yesterday. But hey, overall did pretty well.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
I have no plays up for today. I don't know
that I will so i'll uh. I have to Jake,
this is a great comment, Jake. You have he goes trigger.
You have to remember in two thousand when the Dusan
Bears are down three and fourth to Game seven, only
to have the Hondai Unicorns pull off the wind to
stop a comeback. Just just two year two thousand, KBO,
I couldn't have told you who was in the league
(21:46):
at that point. However, I'm still very invested in the
kb OH. We now have the semi final series is set,
so no KBO for a couple of days. They will
resume play. I believe on Friday, what's Friday morning for
us uh Sam Sung Hanua, probably see Cody Ponce out
there against most likely maybe Ariel Gerrado, a couple of
(22:09):
that former MLB guys going at it in that one.
That should be a great series, and I'll have KBO
plays up. The one thing I will promote since I
don't have any picks to sell right now, is the
fact that we're gonna be doing this show through this show,
meaning this format for college basketball, except it's gonna be
called Full Court Press, another name that I made up
(22:31):
and I think is good, and it's gonna be myself,
Rob Vino and Brian Power. So time slot is going
to be similar. I think we're gonna start I think
we're starting one hour later, so I believe it'll be
ten am live as opposed to nine am live. Just
trying to fit in the programming schedule that Wager Talk has,
so I think they want me to put it in
(22:52):
the ten am time slot, and we'll go five days
a week. And I see, I'm over here looking at
my savat pages, Brian, I see George Kirby from Elon University.
I see Shane Bieber from UC Santa Barbara, and I'm
instantly fired up for college basketball. And so we will Basically,
we should have a nice seamless transition here. For the
(23:12):
most part. We're going to do the Baseball Show right
through the World Series, and then I believe it's November three.
Whenever that first Monday in November is November three, We're
hitting the ground running five days a week. College basketball.
It'll be myself, Brian Leonard or Brian Power, Rob Bino,
and who knows, maybe Brian Leonard will jump in if
one of those guys needs a day off at some point.
Speaker 2 (23:33):
Yeah, I've had a lot of success in college basketball,
but I can't talk college basketball like you guys do.
I can talk baseball at the back of my hand.
I'm on the Hockey show. I've had a lot of
scess in hockey. I can't talk hockey like what that
Canaviian's on the show have been watching their entire lives,
you know. So I don't make many appearances on shows
like that. But yeah, I've had success in it. The
(23:55):
one thing that's really struggled with for me is the
NFL the last couple of years. And who knows, maybe
maybe it's just too hard for me. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (24:06):
Listen, I'll and I'll I'll harp on this it is
I don't and again this will probably you know, this
is I don't understand how you're an expert at like
five different things. It just it just doesn't make sense
hard to do to me. I can't possibly like and
I'll just even even say it, like, I can't possibly
do something else if I'm trying to do if I'm
(24:28):
trying to do baseball at the level that I feel
like it should be done, and then college basketball, I
really can't do anything else. That's why like football, I
kind of I'll dip my like right now, I mean,
I'm hot in the NFL, and I I feel like
the NFL though Brian is like, you know, I don't
think anyone is a huge edge on the NFL these days,
(24:51):
but it's like we we we can all kind of
crunch numbers quickly. And so for me, I'm just not
going to ask questions right now. The NFL players are winning,
I'm going to keep putting them out. If they're winning.
My tune will change drastically if one or two loses, Like,
I'm just not going to be like firing huge NFL
volume as far as college football is concerned, Like again,
(25:11):
I don't know how you do all these different things.
Like for me, I've only put a like I can
tell you right here, it's right here on my list.
I've put fourteen college football plays out this year, and
really they're coming from the relationships I've made. When I'm
traveling around through college basketball once in a while, I'll
get a little insight and I'm like, yeah, that's worth
(25:32):
a bet, But yeah it is. So I don't blame
you one bit. Like if you're locked into the NHL,
which I think is where you should be because you're
very good at it, and as we talked yesterday, it's
a beatable market. Yeah, like that's where you should be,
so I don't blame you one bit.
Speaker 2 (25:47):
Yeah, I think in the NFL the way to beat
it anymore is paying special attention to any injuries that
are happening in game and make your judgments on that
and try to get ahead of the injury because there's
many times you know they have Now I know we're
extending the show, but they have doctors who have seen
the way the guy's going off the field and grabbing
(26:08):
a certain place and he goes, you know, that's probably this,
and he's going to miss five weeks or whatever. Those
guys will say it before the teams will come out
and say it, and if you're tuned into that kind
of thing, you can kind of get ahead of the
line a little bit. In the NFL, I've always been
a numbers guy. Yet if I watch the team play
and I think they're the better team in lines two
and a half, I think it's going to three. I've
(26:28):
grabbed the two and a half. One of those kind
of things. It's simple, it's and that hasn't worked as
well for at least for me lately. And now with teasers,
you can't I can't say you can't play a teaser
but when I used to play it, it's a two
point six point or six point two team teasers plus
one hundred, and it went to minus one ten, then
(26:49):
went to minus one twenty. Now they're charging one thirty five.
I'm not going to give my client a one thirty
five teaser. It's just not worth playing anymore. But other
people feel differently, so but yeah, I can't do.
Speaker 1 (27:02):
That before we get off the show, just because we
jokingly uh ragged on Kelly for not liking baseball the
other day, so I gotta give Kelly props before I
get off the show. One of the one of the
best things like it is was I think before I
even started at Wager Talks, you're probably talking like five
six years ago at this point. I think I came in,
(27:23):
I just got on sports Memo and I put a
couple of plays up, and so she's, look, you know,
I think I lost one and it was like Bayern
Munich or something, and she's like, what is this. I
was like, oh, it's a soccer play. I think I
put it was a champions game. She goes, no, She's like,
you don't. You don't bet soccer. She's like, you just
don't you don't like, what do you do? What are
you doing? Why are you you know? She's like you
(27:45):
got karm like all it, like what are you like?
Is that what you want to do? And I was like, no,
I guess you're right, and I I killed. I was like, no,
you know what, You're right? Why am I messing around
with that? And then I kind of like, you know,
I think I had an NHL play in the playoffs,
and I was like, wait a minute, I I what
what am I doing putting like actual units at risk?
(28:06):
Even if I think I have, like I don't, I
don't grind this out twenty four seven, three sixty five.
So like that's made me much better, like in my opinion,
I mean, you know, I I just I think everyone
should do that. I'll say that. I think anyone in
this that's that's doing what we're doing could benefit from
like just being like, you know what, I'm not an
NBA guy, just just accept it. My edge is in. Uh.
(28:29):
Mckinness has done a great job at this. By the way,
shout out to Andrew mckinnis before we get off. I'll
promote his his show. He he's I think he's done
a great job in like like leaning into NHL CFL,
and I know he's having a really good year because
of it, and I know he's got a new show,
and I think he does. You've done his new show, right.
Speaker 2 (28:49):
I have not, but I've watched it, and it's a
little tough. It's it's like yesterday and he was late
because Montreal wants to overtime. And it's it's hard to
talk about the lines because last night, you know, I'm
on the show today, I had to send them over
what came I was going to talk about last night,
And there's only a couple of places the headline, so
I really didn't know where the value was. So that
(29:11):
makes a little tough. But Andrew and Carmine and even Press,
and I get Press a lot of shit, but he's
he knows hockey much better than I do. But I
know how to handic it. And that's what's cut me ahead.
It's you know, I'm not It's not that I'm a
fan of these sports, although I kind of am, but
I don't need to watch every game. I have other
(29:33):
things I can look at to point me towards some value,
and everything I do, I've got power ratings and if
it's in my Power ratings. There's value. I bet it.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
Jersey Tugging says, this is your only job. Yeah, this
is it, I believe it or not. There's a lot
of prep that goes into even coming on for for
thirty minutes or doing it like doing an hour college
basketball show. I got to like, I got a call
coming up with Robbie, you know, Brian Power, who are like,
this is a lot of a lot of work right here,
(30:04):
and I'm just like that is get buckle up three
hundred and sixty four Division one college college teams and
the chat's gonna be asking questions about Sam Houston State.
Someone better have something to say, so, you know. But anyway,
we you know, just hanging out with you for a
little bit. Today we only had one game. Tomorrow we
(30:25):
will have the star of the show will be back
Tokyo Brandon. He's back tomorrow to talk Dodgers Brewers Game three.
Another great example of just like sticking to what he
knows and crushing it. I mean, he might be the
best example of anyone. He's constantly at the top, and
it's because he's hammering away at markets that he just
(30:45):
knows better than the books. So shout out to TV
and we'll be back in the morning. More total basis,
Nannie and Eastern. Good luck. If you decide to get
involved with the game tonight, obviously check out our pages,
check out the free picks page at wager Talk, and
if you have an extra second or two heading over
to the replay, drop us a comment, maybe a like,
and a subscribe. We want to finish strong this year,
(31:08):
so who knows, maybe we'll come back next year and
they'll give us graphics like Brian Powers got those great graphics. Yeah,
or a producer or something like that. But yeah, we
appreciate you guys tuning in right till the end. I
know it's football season, but we had about six hundred
on the live here. We appreciate you guys, and we
will see you guys in the morning.
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