November 20, 2025 • 44 mins
On Thursday's edition of WagerTalk Today, Joe Raineri shares his favorite betting angles for tonight's Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Thursday Night Football game in NFL and gives a best bet in the Sixers vs Bucks in NBA action & Wake Forest vs Texas Tech in CBB action. Andy Lang provides props and shares free picks & Gianni the Greeks gives out Las Vegas steam moves and sports betting tips – don't miss out!
intro 00:00
Gianni the Greek 1:00
Thursday Steam Report 3:00
UFC Picks 12:32
Andy Lang's All Around the World Free Picks (TNF Props) 18:00
Joe Raineri 19:00
LSU Update 29:45
Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans 21:30
Sixers vs Bucks 24:36
Andy's TNF SGP 29:30
Dan on Lacrosse Leagues 41:00
intro 00:00
Gianni the Greek 1:00
Thursday Steam Report 3:00
UFC Picks 12:32
Andy Lang's All Around the World Free Picks (TNF Props) 18:00
Joe Raineri 19:00
LSU Update 29:45
Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans 21:30
Sixers vs Bucks 24:36
Andy's TNF SGP 29:30
Dan on Lacrosse Leagues 41:00
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to wager Talk Today, the gold standard of sports
betting shows where we talk, to talk and walk the walk.
Absolutely loaded lineup today. Yanni's gonna kick things off with
the Steam Report. Joy are He's gonna come in. We're
gonna talk Thursday night football. Of course, I'm gonna dive
into the seventy six ers and the Bucks game, and
we're gonna do our We're gonna do our weekly update
(00:22):
on the LSU head coaching search. There was an under
the radar hilarious story from earlier this week, so Joe
and I'll talk about that. But yeah, we got a
great show guys, NFL, NBA, we'll do the Steamerport. Hopefully
be some college basketball and college football in there. So
let's get started. Thanks very much for joining us live.
Hit the like button, guys. Let's bring in Yannie. Let's
(00:43):
bring in Yanni and we'll get going with Steam Report. Yanni,
Happy Thursday. How's everything going with you.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Sir, beautiful morning. Everything's crashing, everything's crashing. I'm looking at
my screen right now. We have Bitcoin down, the eighty
seven thousand, Microsoft you down the one hundred and seventy
seven dollars. Everything's dropping see nothing but opportunities on the screen.
But we're here to talk about sports betting, and yeah,
I got a lot to get to real quickly. I
(01:11):
need to share this. I finally came to a solution.
And the volume has been my biggest problem because I
have access to so much information in so many markets,
and I always feel like I'm leaving stuff on the
table some nights and other nights it like costs me,
you know what I mean. So we really have to
figure this out. And it's taken a while to really
sit down and try to iron this out. I'm talking
(01:31):
as being years, me and Johnny trying to figure this out. Finally,
here's what I'm doing. Yesterday was the perfect example. I
tied up the seven strongest college basketball bets. I had
the seven strongest in one package, all four percent. They
went five and two, and then I had you know,
all other stuff too. We're going to continue doing that
where I just released the strongest in daily package. But
(01:53):
then there's a bunch of handicappers out there, really strong, sharp,
winning handicappers that do their own work. And what I
want to do is be able to provide all that
information to help then confirm, like I do. So every
day they're putting together a package that goes up that's
going to have a premium play in it, like it
already does today, and then I get to add all
(02:14):
the scheme that comes in throughout the day, Like so
five six plays that come in, even though I might
release one subscribers, I'll be able to add those other
four onto that package. So those handicappers, guys that want
that volume get to see everything. So today's the first
day it's up there, and I think it's it's really
(02:34):
going to be very beneficial, especially for those guys. Like
I said that that multiple markets that want volume, and
more importantly that do their own work that come in
prepare this is what I like. Now let me get
some confirmation for me. So really excited about that. Today
was the first day. Now get into tonight. Let's talk
NFL real quickly. I have a four percent up for
(02:56):
you guys primetime games. We're running really hot on those.
Here's what I can tell you.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
So far.
Speaker 2 (03:03):
Obviously, the adjustment's been made based on the quarterback situation
for Houston. They played last year. Houston beat them by three,
but that was with CJ. Stroud in the game. Now
obviously it's Davis Mills. Here's what you got to come
to the conclusion of, is the drop off from Stroud
to Mills as great as the adjustment, is it warranted?
(03:24):
And here's what I've seen. I know that with Stroud
at quarterback, three of the seven games he had over
one hundred QBR, over ninety plus QBR, but three of
those games was a seventy, a sixty six, and a
fifty nine.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
So far.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
With Davis Mills, the last two games he was in
a ninety one and an eighty five. So he's played
well at least in those two games that we've seen
where he's played pretty much the full game. Is that
sustainable or did he outperform his potential? That's the key
because if he overplayed, then Buffalo's easily the side tonight.
(03:59):
But if you think that's what he's capable of, then
obviously the adjustment wasn't warranted on the Houston side because
he's coming in off back to back wins.
Speaker 3 (04:09):
That's what makes this tough.
Speaker 4 (04:10):
I look at the total.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
Here's what I can tell you, nothing but over money
from the recreational betters.
Speaker 4 (04:16):
Why isn't this total higher?
Speaker 2 (04:17):
That's what I'm questioning because you have a Buffalo team
that's the number one offense. You have a quarterback in
Josh Allen that's coming off a six touchdown pass game,
and an offense that put up forty four. Oh wait,
and a defense that allowed thirty two, and all of
a sudden, we're looking at a total of forty three
and a half and no movement. Anytime it went to
(04:38):
forty four, it got bought back down.
Speaker 4 (04:40):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
Market Reid tells me that Sharp's really like the under
in this game, and that's going to help limit the
risk that the books have on the over, because, like
I said, whether they're taking Buffalo, whether they're taking Houston,
they're doing it with the over, and most of the
Buffalo action is coming in on the money line or
on teasers, so they don't want to lay the five
(05:04):
and a half or six. Instead, they're taking Buffalo because
remember the look at was two and a half three,
So they made it easy for us. We only have
to answer one question. Is the drop off from stround
two mills worth three points? Because that's what you're paying
for it. If it is, you bet the favorite. If
(05:25):
it isn't, you bet the dog total. Want to be
on the side of the Sharks. Probably want to go under.
You think the public is going to hit another prime
time game, Agree and go over. College football really nothing,
same situation, favorite money and over comes pretty much every
primetime game. But because this is a coin flip orchanessal
(05:47):
State about two and a half point favorite, you get
in two way action on the side, which is expected.
But like the NFL game, regardless of whether they're taking
Arkansas State or UL Lafayette, they're tying it into the
over and once again the fifty four is still sitting there,
no adjustment. In fact, some of the Sharper shops had
(06:08):
the undershaded at minus one p fifteen, so they're booking
all that over money comfortably. That tells you anything in
the college football game.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
So it's an interesting point about the drop off from
from CJ. Stroud to Davis Mills. I don't think so.
I don't think there's a three point drop off. I
could be completely wrong, but it's a Houston team that
has a really good defense and a Buffalo team that's
got the second worst rush defense. I just I don't
say I kind of like Davis Mills. But when you're
(06:41):
talking about backup quarterbacks. He's got to be up up
at the top. Liken't it like he's got to be
up up. I don't know that. That's my I'm not
betting this game, so I can't tell you. I can't
tell you I'm like that much confident that I'm going
to put my money on it. But just feels like
it's a little bit of an overreaction. So Stroud hasn't
been that good. Look at anything with basketball here.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
Yeah, let's look at NBA real quick, because this is
that Thursday where you get, you know, the TV standalone
more or less prime time games. They get mostly parlay action.
So far, here's what we got. All four favorites are
getting bet that's the Magic, the Spurs, the Grizzlies, and
the Bucks. The two heaviest are Grizzlies minus two and
(07:26):
a half and then the Magic at minus five and
a half. Like they're betting those two, parlaying those two,
teasing those two like they already have the final score.
And if you notice not much line movement, you look
at Memphis that actually opened three went down the one
then moved back up. Like I talked about an NBA
(07:46):
you see nothing but two way steam because they're able
to manipulate these lines so easily. And then you look
at the case of Orlando Square shops have six. You know,
Sharper Shops got five and a half. So that just
reflects what I'm saying. Public money on the favorites. You
don't get a lot of sharp money on NBA. Most
(08:07):
of the sharp money that comes in on NBA is
on totals, where they're able to push the totals so
significant that then they could come back and work a
nice middle or on player props, team totals second half
live in game. That's where most of the ev comes from.
They don't do a lot of sides or totals before
the game, except, like I said, totals to middle and
(08:28):
signe based on injuries or player sitting. It's all information
based and you gotta be real quick to the trigger,
Like you don't even need a source. You just gotta
have odds logic and you'll see the line move like
once that light screen lights up across the board. If
you have any slow books, you can make a lot
of money in the NBA. Like I have two books
(08:50):
that are really slow to adjust because as they book
is square money. I could bet really small with them.
But that's what I do. I just pick off those lines.
I mix up others things, obviously. But once that odd
screen lights the odds logic screen lights up on a side,
it's almost always always a player sitting out injury related.
(09:10):
In the NBA, it's almost never like a move based on,
you know, inefficient line because of power ratings like you
see in NFL or college football.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
Could I just do the Can I just beg people
not to tease the NBA. You can't.
Speaker 4 (09:28):
You're talking about the points to help you.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
Guys, guys, please don't tease the NBA.
Speaker 4 (09:35):
Please don't do it.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
Like you'll save a lot of money.
Speaker 2 (09:38):
If you just you're doing it wrong, Like if you're
de'sing NBA regardless of your results, I promise you you're doing
this wrong. Like you got to revisit your thesis. There's
nothing wrong with that. There's nothing harder for a man
to look in the mirror and come to the conclusion
that their thesis is wrong. But you have to do
that on occasion if you want to, you know, flip
(09:58):
the results and teasing NBA at college basketball. College football
isn't going to go well for you long term.
Speaker 1 (10:06):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, a couple of injuries, I think you
honest is out tonight. So I'm actually kind of surprised
that Philadelphia Lion hasn't moved more than that. I wonder
if I'm actually really and it got.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
Two and a half two times I've seen it at
the two and a half this morning and it got
picked off boom boom to two and a half on Milwaukee.
Speaker 1 (10:25):
Well, I mean last listen, actually, maybe maybe I do
know why last time this happening, Yan set out they
won outright better right, the line flipped and then they
just won one outright completely. So, uh, let's anything else?
Do you got anything with hockey?
Speaker 3 (10:40):
Anything?
Speaker 2 (10:42):
We got some uh a good, it's a huge slate, Yeah,
a good NHL board tonight. Let me tell you what
sticks out because I know we got the hockey betters
out there all right?
Speaker 4 (10:54):
Oh yeah, pub.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Public on Columbus, sharp account on Toronto that jumps out
right way of the square counts are on Philadelphia of
the square counts or on Chicago that sticks out because
it's only a minus one ten minus one fifteen line.
Speaker 4 (11:14):
And all the dog, the dog that they love.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Is Anaheim against Ottawa. These are all square accounts. They
love Anaheim the Night, They love Anaheim the.
Speaker 4 (11:26):
Night Wow as a dog.
Speaker 2 (11:28):
And like I said, those those the coin flip game,
which sticks out a lot because anytime you see a
minus one fifteen, one twenty with that one sided action, yeah,
usually doesn't.
Speaker 1 (11:40):
End up well for the betters.
Speaker 2 (11:42):
So that's kind of what's sticking out in the NHL.
All Chicago, like I said, All Chicago against Seattle and
then All Philadelphia, and those again are two closely lined games.
Speaker 4 (11:54):
It shouldn't be that one sided.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
I don't I don't urge anyone to try to fade
the pub as a means to get rich. But there
are times you want to read the market and it's
really screaming at you that they're willing to book NonStop
action on Team A at a discount. They usually have
a strong conviction on why they're doing that. To me,
(12:17):
at least I pay attention to that stuff.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
We had a weird UFC card. We'll finish up with UFC.
This one. This one has trip ups written over it
all over it. Is there anything that you're kind of like,
I mean, we got a minus six hundred and the
main event which seems Sully.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
This is the books telling you we don't want any
Army or Eurokian money, don't We don't want to book Armin,
We want to book the hooker side. This is them
taking a position saying we're comfortable booking the hooker side
because anyone bet and Sarukin, they're going to have to
get created, whether he does it inside the distance, does
it by decision or method of victory. They're not laying
sixty dollars to win ten. That's not going to happen.
(12:58):
So that's the problem with the main event Co Maine event.
That line's gotten way out of whack. You know, Gary's
now almost a three to one favorite against the previous
champ in Belah. But x'es and O's Gary should should
be an easy fight for Gary, like he should start
to pick the law apart as the fight progresses. And
let's not forget Belaws closer to forty than he is
(13:20):
thirty right now, so he's getting up there in age.
He already reached the pinnacle as well. This is a
letdown spot for him. So I like Gary, the price
has just gotten away from us. This has been a
difficult card. I released four plays already. I'm coming off
really good back to back weeks in the UFC, so
I've been selective and narrowed down four plays that I like.
But I'll give you one real quickly, a favorite in
(13:41):
the first fight of the night that jumped out at me,
and I laid the chalk immediately. That line's climbing on
Denzel Freeman strictly strength of schedule. Freeman's fought at Belatour PFL.
He against an opponent who has a very weak strength
of schedule undefeated, but only two of those opponents had
a winning record. Now, sometimes you can't knock the guy
for that, you just can't find fights, But you got
(14:03):
to give credit to the guy with the tougher strength
of schedule. I don't necessarily look down at a guy
with a weak strength of schedule because again a lot
of times I've found out from Contender series, they just
can't book a fight for this guy.
Speaker 4 (14:13):
No one wants to fight him.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
But the guy that's been tested definitely goes into that
fight with the advantage. And I respect the steam that
came in on Freeman, and I agree with that side
as well. He's got one loss or will he'd be
an undefeated fighter, also young still you know, developing, But
I think he wins his fight three out of four times.
Anything less than minus three hundred. Again, I think it
(14:37):
is the right side. Probably bet him inside the distance,
get a better price. Probably not telling you anything.
Speaker 4 (14:41):
You don't know.
Speaker 2 (14:41):
Minus two hundreds win more than they don't. But I
just think that's an underpriced minus two hundred.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
Yeah, they're both wrestlers, but Freeman's going to be a
little bit more. Freeman's gone the distance, He's got probably
better cardio, he's preaging.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
He's just more.
Speaker 2 (14:56):
Yeah, it just seems like he's got more prepared to
win that fight.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
I've got an underdog for you. I'll take Ryan Loader again.
Speaker 4 (15:04):
Oh I bet him, Yes, I bet him.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
There you go.
Speaker 4 (15:06):
That's a premium play of mind too. We're on the
same side there, yes.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
Yeah, yeah, Loader a wrestler. Nardia will give up. If
you give you give him any opportunity to give up,
he will absolutely give up.
Speaker 2 (15:16):
So, yeah, he's either gonna make that look easier. We're
gonna be way on the wrong side. He's gonna get
kot like he's if he If he implements his game,
it's our fight.
Speaker 4 (15:24):
To lose plus.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
Absolutely absolutely, So all right, uh Yanni, it's Thursday. We're
buckling up for football Friday tomorrow. But tell him what
you have up for Thursday.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
Yeah, yeah, here's what's already up. I got the UFC package.
Like I said, four plays already in it stands selective.
We've turned it around looking for a big twenty twenty
six in MMA. College football package isn't up yet. That's
by design because I'm firing a five percent only. This
will be only the fifth five percent in college football.
Number one in profit, over one hundred and thirty units.
All was up eighty units in October. Now in November
(15:54):
it's gotten up the one thirty. We still have the
bowls and all that stuff ahead, and like I said,
the five percent coming. The timing is everything already. My
NFL package is up there also for Sunday, handful of.
Speaker 4 (16:06):
Plays in there.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
I have the Thursday night NFL game four percent standalone,
thirteen and five run on those primetime games.
Speaker 4 (16:14):
And last but not least.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
The steam sheet is out today and they're gonna get
a lot of gold throughout the day. I'm gonna have
a lot of fun with it. So that's the luck
to you guys. Football Friday, tomorrow, big weekend, big month ahead,
the holidays, next week. No better days to bet than
those four with people all from work, eating leftovers and
betting college football.
Speaker 4 (16:34):
So yeah, really looking forward to the next few weeks.
Best the luck to everybody this weekend.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
Johanny the Greek, thank you so much. And yes, Joannie
is a big part of football Fridays. We'll be on
tomorrow same time. Get you ready for the weekend. Let's
still right into some free plays. Let's do some let's
do all around the world. We're doing the NFL edition.
Then we're gonna get Juveniari's thoughts here. I do have
a play up for clients up for sale as well
for Thursday football. It's the one best bet that we
(17:02):
have on the board for props. If you want to
get that play, it's up. If you want the full
week and the full weekend, where you get Thursday, you
get Sunday, you get Monday. That's on the special pages.
We also have two, not one, but two UFC best bets.
We've hit seven in a row, going for nine straight
winners this weekend after another sweep last Saturday. So two
best bets in UFC, and our cricket play is still
(17:25):
up that goes off tonight. It's half price. They're letting
us run a half priced cricket play because we know
it's we know everyone's focused on NFL, NBA, NHL, So
we want to get you guys ready for cricket because
the ashes are here, and we got another couple of
tournaments that are coming up. So let's cash with cricket,
get those UFC plays, And of course we have our
Thursday night football play nineteen and eleven in primetime plays
(17:49):
in NFL this season. So a lot of good stuff
going on at wt dot buzz slash al.
Speaker 4 (17:53):
All right, let's take a look.
Speaker 1 (17:54):
At what plays and props we should be looking at here.
I like Tyrel Shavers, Kean Coleman got benched again. What
do we talk about yesterday? Don't in life, don't give
people a reason to bench you because you will be replaced.
And now all of a sudden, they're like Keon Coleman,
you're missing meetings. Tyrel Shavers is gonna go out and
(18:15):
put his life on the line, so I'm gonna take
him over twenty three and a half receiving Coleman gets
benched last week, Shavers comes in four catches, ninety yards,
explosive receiver, and Coleman's out again tonight. So it's all
I need to know about that one. Dalton Schultz under
thirty seven and a half receiving. This Bills team the
number one defense against tight ends. They only give up
twenty seven yards per game. You can get after this
(18:37):
Bill's defense, just tight ends have not been able to
do it. So we're gonna fade Dalton Schultz and then
take a look at Xavier Hutchinson over one and a
half receptions. First real game that he played with Davis Mills,
he had no catches and no targets against Jacksonville. The
next week, though, five targets and three catches with Davis Mills.
So we're gonna take Davis Mills to get Xavier Hutchinson
(18:57):
a couple of receptions in the game tonight. All right,
let's bring in Juvenieri. We gotta talk a couple games tonight.
We're gonna talk Thursday night football. We're gonna talk seventy
six ers in Bucks. But as always, we do our
update on the LSU saga. I don't know if you
saw this where the governor. The governor did an interview
(19:19):
and he was like, I talked to Lane Kiffin for
two hours at this at this like fundraising function. But
he's like, go ask this reporter. He knows more about
the search than I do. So they go and ask
the reporter and he goes, yeah, that never happened.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
I'm pretty sure he saw has a job.
Speaker 5 (19:36):
So I'm not sure that there's gotta be some rules
somewhere along camping negotiating with the current tampering team, who,
by the way, has a college football playoff golden ticket
in his back pocket right now. And I've said it
all week, Andy, I said, you know what, forget about
money fame. Looks what you want in life is leverage,
(20:00):
and nobody has more of it than Lane Kiffin right now.
He he has them all, old miss He's got Florida,
He's got he's got every fan base so you know,
holding on to their bread to decide what he's gonna do.
He's got Jimmy Sex that is an agent, playing everybody
against one another. Uh, just absolutely priceless. And by the way,
(20:23):
he'll end up at Florida. So getting to the predictable
markets and he's going to Florida. That'll be where he lands.
Speaker 1 (20:30):
RJ agrees with you going to doing to Florida.
Speaker 4 (20:32):
That's why wouldn't you just stay there?
Speaker 1 (20:34):
I never understand why why people have to keep jumping around.
Isn't he built something really good there? It feels like
you kind of got it, man, I don't know.
Speaker 4 (20:42):
There's what I'm laughing at.
Speaker 5 (20:43):
ANDAs so, now what is every other school doing? Like
he can only coach at one school? So like what
what are what is? What are what are the rest
of you doing? Like at this are you putting it
all into into the into the lane? No, he's going
to Florida. That's the only place I think he's gonna go.
He will not be hanging out and have to answer
(21:03):
to a governor of LSU.
Speaker 4 (21:05):
It's not gonna happen.
Speaker 1 (21:06):
I don't think that governor realized he just puted a
lot of people away from that job.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
Yep.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
Well, let's take a look at Thursday night football here
Bills and Texans. I think this is a fascinating game.
I'm gonna be excited to watch this one. I kind
of think Davis Bills is not terrible. I think I
think he's one of the better backup quarterbacks and this
line move. Interested in your take? Buffalo is gonna be
five and a half point favorites here over under forty
three and a half? What's your breakdown on Thursday Night football?
Speaker 5 (21:35):
What listen, Heat's a very competent backup, right, He's not
a he's not a rookie, he's not a new same
thing with Mason Rudolph.
Speaker 3 (21:42):
Like guys that have been in.
Speaker 5 (21:43):
The system, they've been here, they're not gonna be overwhelmed
by the spot.
Speaker 3 (21:49):
But you know, CJ.
Speaker 5 (21:50):
Stroup would have been the better quarterback. But what I
found interesting with this was the fact that I mean
a look aheadline here was two and a half three Andy,
and I knew the minute Stroud was either in or
out was gonna affect where this line went. The minute
that he was ruled out, I mean, this line doubled,
but the total never went anywhere.
Speaker 3 (22:10):
So what are you telling me here?
Speaker 5 (22:12):
So you're expecting, now, Davis Bell, So now Buffalo is
just gonna win by a greater margin on a short week.
So you're still telling me you don't believe that the
Texans are gonna be able to put.
Speaker 3 (22:23):
Up enough points. And this is a top five defense.
Speaker 5 (22:26):
It's an elite defense, and usually Andy, we like to
look at the home teams on short weeks like this,
especially teams that are getting points. But that works usually
early in the season. Here's a couple of facts for you.
When you from week eleven on Thursday night, favorites of
more than two points one oh one sixty eight to
(22:48):
two against the number. So usually you're gonna get those
home dogs and those outright dog winners on a short week.
It happens earlier in the season, not towards the later ends,
so that means basically, the better teams usually win these
games at this time of year. I wouldn't listen. I
wouldn't want anybody but the Bills in this game. But
(23:11):
I think all the value lies exactly that in the total.
The Bills team total twenty four and a half. Are
they gonna drop more than twenty four points on this defense?
Could very well be. I wouldn't put it past Josh
Allen on having another big night, But to me, I
think fading once again. The Texas team total twenty and
a half, I think is what I saw Andy, maybe
(23:33):
even twenty one now, I just don't see them having
that much success. They still can't run the ball. They
have scored one rushing touchdown inside the five yard line
this year.
Speaker 6 (23:44):
One.
Speaker 5 (23:44):
Okay, what the hell happened to chub I mean, my
goodness here, So I don't know that that gets corrected
with Davis Mills. It feels like the under in some way,
shape or form has got to be played in this game,
whether it be team totals or the full game at
forty three and a half.
Speaker 3 (24:02):
That's the only way I would look at this.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
That's that's that's awful. One rushing touchdown inside the five.
Speaker 4 (24:09):
Yard line, They're awful.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Yeah, well, I mean, come on, what's happened to Chubbs?
His knee is being held together with a coat hanger
and a prayer. I mean, the poor guys.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
But his offensive line is special too.
Speaker 1 (24:20):
Well, that's special is a good word. Special is a
really good word. So let's go to NBA. Let's dive
into the seventy six ers and the Bucks. Looks like
Giannis is going to be sitting tonight. Embiid probably probably
in Paul George. I don't know. Paul George played one
(24:42):
game then they sat him. Now he looks like he's back,
and uh, It's amazing, man. This seventy six ers team,
they literally look like two different teams. They literally look
like two different teams when you put Paul George and
Joel Embiid into the lineup. So what do you make
of this Phillies a minus two and a half point
favorite over under two twenty four and a half.
Speaker 5 (25:01):
Well, they you know, last night the Sixers played Embiid
and George were held out right and then they promptly
turned the ball over I think twenty one times to
Toronto who was having a field day scoring on them.
So they kind of shot themselves in the foot last
night to seventy six ers. But it does look like
they're going to have Paul George back on the court
here tonight and likely Embiid for this game, which certainly
(25:26):
will help because they still have Tyrese Macshi, they still
have Edgecumbe Quinton Grimes are going to do the.
Speaker 3 (25:32):
Bulk of the scoring.
Speaker 5 (25:33):
The problem is, if you're looking at the Milwaukee Bucks,
who else can we try? I mean, Giannis was averaging
almost thirty points a game for this He was literally
carrying this team and that best all they could do
Andy was win one, lose one.
Speaker 3 (25:48):
Win one, lose one.
Speaker 5 (25:49):
The kid Ryan Rollins has been phenomenal, but you know what,
is it a one man show?
Speaker 2 (25:55):
Now?
Speaker 5 (25:55):
What is Gary Trent Junior going to? I just I
think phill it Helia has the edge. The look aheadline
last night was minus one. I think we're seeing two
and a half's now in this game. The total has
cratered in this one. But I think even on the
second of a back to back and opportunity here to
get Paul George and Embiid back on the court, yeah,
(26:17):
I think the edge has to go to Philly here
tonight in this one. I don't trust Milwaukee without Yan
is available.
Speaker 1 (26:24):
Really, I thought they didn't they win last time, they
said Jannis, I don't know. I I thoroughly enjoy this.
I love edge Combe, I love watching the Sixers and
watching Maxican edge. Ye there, yeah, yeah, that'll be it'll
be an interesting game tonight. So all right, so you're
you're rolling with h rolling with Philly tonight eight and six.
(26:45):
I actually bet their season win total under at the
beginning of the year, and I just I'm like, come on,
bring back in beat in Paul George when they start,
when they started.
Speaker 3 (26:57):
They' no mistake about it.
Speaker 5 (26:59):
They'll be rare and oh by March at this rate,
and when they play every eighth game, so until one
of them gets hurt again, and then that'll be the
end of it.
Speaker 1 (27:08):
Absolutely, Joe, don't play recesses over.
Speaker 4 (27:12):
Yeah, is not play that.
Speaker 1 (27:16):
Does not get paid by the hour. All right, So Joe,
tell her what you have up at wage you talk.
Speaker 5 (27:22):
Let's see we are lontaloaded. Five percent college football best bet.
Andy is ready to roll for Saturday. I do have
a big college basketball card up right now, number one
in basketball, NBA and college basketball combined. Here, guys over
the last thirty days, love this slate tonight.
Speaker 3 (27:42):
We have an all access package up.
Speaker 5 (27:45):
I believe we've got five total plays in college hoops,
one in the NBA. And go get that five percent
best bet in college football because as sure as I'm
sitting here, by the time we get the Saturday, that
number will not be available. So take it while you can, Andy,
and let's cash these tickets tonight.
Speaker 1 (28:03):
All right, Juvenr, you got a five percent best bet up,
Like you said, go get that play. Don't let this
line get get it get ahead of you, because we
got to take plays down. If the line if the
like literally, we have to take plays down if the
line moves too much. So you don't want to be
on the sidelines of a while everyone's cashing a ticket.
So Joe Niary, thank you so much. Uh, get some
support here in the chat. Joe's five percent NF I
(28:24):
mean a lot of cash this week?
Speaker 5 (28:26):
All right?
Speaker 1 (28:27):
All right, Joe Verniery, So all right, Uh, we're gonna
do a same game parlay real quick? How can you
not ask Yanni about college basketball? Please don't forget college basketball? Sadly,
it is too early in the day to get any
confirmation on on the steam report for college basketball. I've
asked Yanni about this, so any moves that we have
(28:50):
right now cannot be confirmed, and we do not want
to give out bad information. Some of these line moves,
you don't really know exactly what's going on. For example,
like Pitt in Central Florida, we've had big move on
the under, but we don't know if there's gonna be
buy back and we won't know till later the day.
So rather not give out information rather than give out
bad information. So that's what's going on with college college basketball.
(29:13):
So all right, let's do a same game, parlay.
Speaker 4 (29:17):
Hit our.
Speaker 1 (29:18):
We hit ours last week here, so you gave it
a nice plus one sixty two. Let's get this thing
over two hundred, same game, Parlay. I'm gonna go back
to Shavers and get him two plus receptions. Do worry
about this defense? They're really good. I worry that Houston's
gonna run the ball a lot, But I don't know.
I just I think Shavers. I think they got something
(29:41):
going here with with Tyrol Shavers. I think Josh Allen
really likes him. So let's go Shavers two plus receptions
and I'll take Davis Mills two hundred plus. Passing this
one is probably my most worrisome, But listen, this guy's
stone for two seventy four and two ninety two over
his last two starts. Does he fall apart tonight? It
could absolutely happen. But he's got a lot of attempts,
(30:03):
he's got a lot of he's got a lot of
catches from his receivers. Nico Collins has been really good.
So I'll take Davis Mills two hundred plus. I'll take
an al team total. Joe's talking about taking under twenty one.
I like the Texans to get two touchdowns you can
run on this Bills team. They are second worst. I
think they can move the ball. I think they can
get two touchdowns in them. So I'll take the Texans
over thirteen and a half same game. Parlay all of
(30:26):
those together and it gets you plus two four. All right, Yeah.
RJ brings up a good one, a good point. The
guys do a college basketball show, Deep dive into college
basketball this morning, so they'll break down all the games
a lot more in depth, and they'll give you their
(30:46):
thoughts on spreads in total. So it's a really good
college basketball show on the YouTube channel. So, Dan, are
you gonna be doing anything with the game tonight for
your picks? If anything, for me, it would be Houston,
but it's not gonna be.
Speaker 4 (31:01):
I never play. Yeah, I never played the Thursday night
games because then you have to lock your card in.
Like we always lock our carden on Friday afternoon, even
if we do the show early, just in case, you know,
so the crazy happens. Like I saw what Baker Mayfield
he was he was limited with with the illness on Wednesday,
so like we like to wait until Friday to lock
(31:21):
our carden simply in case there's anything like that far
as the game is concerned tonight, Like, I don't know,
I just look at this Houston team and you know,
Joe with a great breakdown there on you know how
the defenses play, uh you pointing out how Houston's pretty
solid here, you know against the run, and Buffalo's you know,
kind of weak against the run here. But it just
(31:42):
feels like this is is a bit of a square
dog here in Houston. Now you're getting Buffalo under five
and a half. I'm sure if you're on social media,
you saw, you know, the posts about Josh Allen Thursday
Night football eight and oh straight up average margin of
victory around like fourteen points per game. So you know,
(32:02):
if you like that those kind of trends, it means
you know, they'll probably win there. And with Houston, it
just kind of feels like.
Speaker 1 (32:11):
I'm thinking, as soon as I see those Twitter trends,
I would take Houston out right as.
Speaker 4 (32:16):
Soon as But so so, there's also been a Twitter
trend that's gone every single week that's Detroit Lions off
of a loss, and are you fading that it's thirteen
and h you know, So that's what I mean, is
like one of the things is you just ride the
streak until it loses. So sure, you want to call
(32:36):
your shot and say this is the time to fade it,
you know, more prorogative, you know that that's your prerogative
to do so. But I'm more like, hey, let me
ride a trend until it loses, and then I go
back to it, and then if it loses again, okay,
then I'll start pivoting off of it. But that one again,
like when it's like a Thursday night thing, that doesn't
mean as much to me, but it just feels like
(32:58):
for me, how often have we seen these backup quarterbacks
like Davis Mills come in and then they're competent for
a few weeks and then it's kind of like it
catches up with the Buffalo because New England keeps winning,
they're not afforded. Hey, let's let up. It's the only
Thursday night football. This is a you know, non divisional game.
Buffalo has to keep pace with New England. So I
(33:20):
think you're gonna get a fully focused effort, and Buffalo's
gone on the road and laid some stinkers here. I
think this line feels like it should be seven to
seven and a half, so I would lay under the
touchdown with the Bills.
Speaker 1 (33:32):
I mean, the Bill's got the Bills gotta be like,
are you kidding me? So it's like, all right, Bill's
we got a short week, we get like an awesome defense,
and who do the Patriots get another layup? They get
the Bengals and oh, by the way, Jamar Chase is suspended,
so they get to play the Bengals without Jamar Chase.
Speaker 4 (33:52):
Like, but like, Joe Burrow might play in that game.
I don't think it really matters if you don't have
Jamar Chase, you know. But but how crazy is it
that we're what it's week twelve and after it seemed
like Joe Burrow was done done, Joe Flacco kept the
ship afloat. So Burrow might be playing on Sunday. It's
not enough for me to be on or against either side.
(34:14):
I'm looking for my chance to finally fade the Patriots.
I think it's going to come in the first round
of the playoffs. But but yeah, that's that's that's crazy
to me, Patriots. It's so great.
Speaker 1 (34:27):
It got me too, because so I have Justin Herbert.
Now he's been pretty awful, but I needed. I was
looking ahead and I need to back up for this
week because he's off. So I was like, I'll get
Flacco Flaco Patriots. He'll be throwing a lot, so I
go and pick him in. I got him in Burrow,
and now I don't have Jamar Chase.
Speaker 4 (34:45):
Really, Andy, I gave you. I gave you the trend
about how you know Josh Allen he wins ones that
you won't find on Twitter. How about some of these
from from Mark Lawrence and so we have a little
time here if you are pro Houston Texans noted that
actually this is not a good good Davis Mills stat
Davis Mills oh and ten straight up three and seven
(35:08):
against the spread when they're facing foes coming off a
straight up and against the spread wins. So when they
have a team that just won and covered the spread
like they the Bills did, oh and ten straight up
three and seven against the number, oh and five against
the spread in those same games if the's a single
digit underdog, so the sub sect it was already a
(35:29):
bad sub sect, but the against the spread. Five of
those seven losses come when they're a single digit underdog
like they are tonight. However, here's the one for you
Texans backers. Bills struggling in the first of back to
back road games. We saw this earlier this year when
they actually had three straight and then they went on
the road to face the Falcons. That's why I like
(35:49):
the Falcons in that game, first of back to back
road games, O seven and one against the number I haven't
covered one time in the first of their back to
back road games. So a couple is there for you
as as you can say into your buddies and sound smart.
That's that's really what trends are.
Speaker 1 (36:07):
I'll give you a goofy trend.
Speaker 4 (36:09):
Christian, I love them.
Speaker 1 (36:11):
Christian Kirk, his receiving total is twelve and a half
yards night over in every single game that c. J.
Stroud started under In both games that Davis Mills started,
his reception totals one and a half. He's only had
one catch each of the last two weeks, so that's
(36:31):
a bummer for maybe like Christian Kirk and Davis Mills
don't get along very well.
Speaker 4 (36:37):
Oh Andy, all right, one one more for you here
is we're just throwing out random stats. We talked about
that Bengals in Patriots game. Here's one. You know strap
in because this is about a paragraph quantifying a trend
that has never lost. Play on this is from Mark Lawrence.
Play on any zero and three straight up or against
(36:59):
this spread. NFL non division home dog in its last
three games versus a seven to fifty or greater opponent.
That's winning percentage if the home dog.
Speaker 6 (37:14):
Scored ten plus points in its last game, provided it
won sixteen or more in their previous thirty two home games.
Speaker 4 (37:25):
So, Andy, who that applies to if your brain still
works and you haven't gone cross eyed? Is the Cincinnati Bengals.
They are eight and oh one hundred in that of course,
in that it.
Speaker 1 (37:37):
Applies yeah, yeah, with with with quarterbacks coming off of
foot injuries and they're number one wide receiver suspended.
Speaker 7 (37:47):
It makes me think in Austin Powers and when he's
explaining time travel to Austin Powers and he's like, wait,
so if I go back and then, does that mean
that I'm still frozen in the year nineteen foot.
Speaker 4 (37:59):
And he goes, oh my god, I've gone cross eye.
Speaker 1 (38:01):
That's how I found That's how I felt.
Speaker 4 (38:07):
Uh, Okay, what about this?
Speaker 1 (38:09):
Your Eagles? You got you guys won Week one When
you're when Jalen Carter got suspended for spitting for spinning
on a guy in pregame spinning games. Want to know
when losing, when miss opponent.
Speaker 4 (38:24):
When missing a player due to spit. NFL teams in
twenty twenty five are one and oh do they become
to and oh?
Speaker 3 (38:34):
This week.
Speaker 1 (38:37):
Two was a trend Dan.
Speaker 4 (38:42):
Trend trend watch, we got hashtag trend watch. Will there
be a spinning trend?
Speaker 1 (38:52):
Hop, you're so corny, David Mills told Christian Kirk. The
jerk started called in there out of him.
Speaker 4 (39:00):
Nice Seinfeld reference.
Speaker 1 (39:02):
Oh, it's pretty good. It's pretty good, Rob.
Speaker 4 (39:05):
No, the Bengals didn't lose because he was not suspended
during that game. Jalen Carter was suspended at the He's
kicked out of the game, so essentially he served his suspension.
So g Z money trust us. We are the trend whisperers,
and teams missing a player due to spit are one
to Oh that is still true. The Bengals did not
(39:26):
miss Jamar Chase. They will be missing him this upcoming
week due to salivation phrase.
Speaker 1 (39:35):
I never thought we would be going over all right,
all right, well, Dan and I will be covering all
of our Pick five Super contest pick tomorrow on Football
Friday once again Thursday Night Football best bet. That is
our best prop on the board. We've been absolute money
on primetime games nineteen and eleven this year. So if
you want just that prop, it is up. If you
(39:56):
would like the whole week, which we recommend, it's on
the specials pag. It's only four dollars more and you
get tonight's prop, you get all of Sunday, and you
get Monday Night football as well. So all props are included.
Two UFC best bets.
Speaker 4 (40:08):
Thatt Up.
Speaker 1 (40:09):
We've hit our last seven UFC plays is another sweep
last Saturday. So we're running a red hot mat and
we have our half priced cricket play that is up
that goes off tonight in the Ashes tournament that starts
to night. And actually I'm gonna be doing a live
show believe or not, Dan, our cricket department wanted to
do a live watch along. I'm going to I'm going
to be doing a live cricket shot.
Speaker 4 (40:29):
Set the line. Wait, wait are we setting the line
on views for the cricket view along? Andy? What are
we setting the line?
Speaker 1 (40:36):
Some people will watch because it starts at nine to
twenty and there'll be some people are nice to just
have a companion. Yeah, well it's a test match. They're
like three days long. It's eight hours a day for
like three days.
Speaker 4 (40:49):
So we'll just be doing.
Speaker 1 (40:50):
For the first couple of hours.
Speaker 4 (40:53):
It's just like yeah, like bags under your eyes and
you're all like sipping coffee like.
Speaker 1 (40:57):
The our cricket department. Ye on our cricket department. He's
a he's a lunatic. He stays up and watches all
of it. He will watch every this is in Australia. Okay,
it starts at like two am, so he watches all
this off. It's why, that's why he hit sixty percent
of his lifetime plays in cricket. There's a there's a
method to his madness. So yeah, that's seriously, that's the
(41:19):
kind of work you get, the work I think you
get from our cricket department.
Speaker 4 (41:22):
So it's true.
Speaker 1 (41:24):
Oh and what before we go, what, what did you
post in our slack about lacrosse?
Speaker 2 (41:28):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (41:28):
Yeah, so this is this is definitely something to keep
an eye on because the National Lacrosse League is kicking off.
They had a little standoff, but they're going to be
in play in the next few coming weeks here, and
they had partnered with a brand new, uh new in
its infancy to company that will provide live lines for them.
(41:51):
And not only are they going to do live betting lines, Andy,
they're going to be doing live player props on regulated
sports books via this this new this new technology that
they're going to be using. So Andy, you and I know,
whenever we hear new beta testing and whatnot. Typically NLL
is a because you know, I help Andy. I am
(42:13):
the lacrosse department, with the squad, with the Roads to
Million squad, and whenever we have something new, we always
have our ears perk up and a lot of people
are like, oh, I want to learn, Oh I want
to learn. Typically with NL that's the National Lacrosse League,
that's indoor lacrosse. This is something that we don't handicap
as much because there's heavy variants, but this could definitely
be something. You know, you definitely want to check out
(42:35):
the Discord channel because that's where you're able to actually post, Hey,
here's a live play, you know, and you're gonna want
to try and get to it. But there could be
some money to be made in the National Lacrosse League
this year, especially right out of the gate with some
new technology being tested.
Speaker 1 (42:50):
Eric, you're looking at the lacrosse department, Dan is our
lacrosse department. There's just no lacrosse going on. Yeah, there's
there's nothing going on right now to bet on, but yeah,
this starts up. So yes, if you guys follow lacrosse,
Holy Cow.
Speaker 4 (43:05):
And the Championship Series with just announced Andy, that's the
indoor version of what the Premiere Lacrosse League does. It's
a really fun product, really fast. It's sixes, so it's
a different form of lacrosse, a lot more higher scoring.
It's almost like basketball esqu when you have the rushes
up and down and you remember how it used to
be one weekend in February. It now extended it over
(43:27):
two weekends. So we're actually gonna have two weekends of
Championship Series, which is something that's always pretty kind to us.
Excited about that. The WLL, the Women's Lacrosse League, will
also be an action so we have. It's crazy because
lacrosse is right around the corner. Yes, I know it's
football season, but Andy, we cash in on cricket, we
cash in on darts, and especially when all the football
is going on. Early on, college lacrosse is going to
(43:49):
be starting up too, So I like our j I
appreciate the love there, man, and hopefully we continue to cash.
Speaker 1 (43:57):
I don't care about having a particular their play in
a particular game. I care about where's the money at.
This is where, this is where the money's at. So
I learned my lesson a long time ago. You'll lose
a lot of money trying to pick plays in your
favorite games. Focus on where the money is at, where
you make most money.
Speaker 4 (44:16):
That is my focus. On who is spitting and who
has got suspended for spitting?
Speaker 1 (44:20):
Want to know absolutely absolutely hot takes, Hot takes all right.
Thanks for joining us, guys, Please hit the like button,
leave us a comment. And I got something I would
have start working on for this show. I'm gonna talk
to Dan after the show and then we'll start implementing
it tomorrow. So I'm excited about that. So thanks very much.
It's Football Friday tomorrow, jam Pack Show Teddy Covers, Marco, Janny,
(44:42):
myself and Dan doing their super contest pick. So make
sure joining us tomorrow. Thanks very much for watching, guys.
Good luck on all your bets take care,
Welcome to wager Talk Today, the gold standard of sports
betting shows where we talk, to talk and walk the walk.
Absolutely loaded lineup today. Yanni's gonna kick things off with
the Steam Report. Joy are He's gonna come in. We're
gonna talk Thursday night football. Of course, I'm gonna dive
into the seventy six ers and the Bucks game, and
we're gonna do our We're gonna do our weekly update
(00:22):
on the LSU head coaching search. There was an under
the radar hilarious story from earlier this week, so Joe
and I'll talk about that. But yeah, we got a
great show guys, NFL, NBA, we'll do the Steamerport. Hopefully
be some college basketball and college football in there. So
let's get started. Thanks very much for joining us live.
Hit the like button, guys. Let's bring in Yannie. Let's
(00:43):
bring in Yanni and we'll get going with Steam Report. Yanni,
Happy Thursday. How's everything going with you.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Sir, beautiful morning. Everything's crashing, everything's crashing. I'm looking at
my screen right now. We have Bitcoin down, the eighty
seven thousand, Microsoft you down the one hundred and seventy
seven dollars. Everything's dropping see nothing but opportunities on the screen.
But we're here to talk about sports betting, and yeah,
I got a lot to get to real quickly. I
(01:11):
need to share this. I finally came to a solution.
And the volume has been my biggest problem because I
have access to so much information in so many markets,
and I always feel like I'm leaving stuff on the
table some nights and other nights it like costs me,
you know what I mean. So we really have to
figure this out. And it's taken a while to really
sit down and try to iron this out. I'm talking
(01:31):
as being years, me and Johnny trying to figure this out. Finally,
here's what I'm doing. Yesterday was the perfect example. I
tied up the seven strongest college basketball bets. I had
the seven strongest in one package, all four percent. They
went five and two, and then I had you know,
all other stuff too. We're going to continue doing that
where I just released the strongest in daily package. But
(01:53):
then there's a bunch of handicappers out there, really strong, sharp,
winning handicappers that do their own work. And what I
want to do is be able to provide all that
information to help then confirm, like I do. So every
day they're putting together a package that goes up that's
going to have a premium play in it, like it
already does today, and then I get to add all
(02:14):
the scheme that comes in throughout the day, Like so
five six plays that come in, even though I might
release one subscribers, I'll be able to add those other
four onto that package. So those handicappers, guys that want
that volume get to see everything. So today's the first
day it's up there, and I think it's it's really
(02:34):
going to be very beneficial, especially for those guys. Like
I said that that multiple markets that want volume, and
more importantly that do their own work that come in
prepare this is what I like. Now let me get
some confirmation for me. So really excited about that. Today
was the first day. Now get into tonight. Let's talk
NFL real quickly. I have a four percent up for
(02:56):
you guys primetime games. We're running really hot on those.
Here's what I can tell you.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
So far.
Speaker 2 (03:03):
Obviously, the adjustment's been made based on the quarterback situation
for Houston. They played last year. Houston beat them by three,
but that was with CJ. Stroud in the game. Now
obviously it's Davis Mills. Here's what you got to come
to the conclusion of, is the drop off from Stroud
to Mills as great as the adjustment, is it warranted?
(03:24):
And here's what I've seen. I know that with Stroud
at quarterback, three of the seven games he had over
one hundred QBR, over ninety plus QBR, but three of
those games was a seventy, a sixty six, and a
fifty nine.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
So far.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
With Davis Mills, the last two games he was in
a ninety one and an eighty five. So he's played
well at least in those two games that we've seen
where he's played pretty much the full game. Is that
sustainable or did he outperform his potential? That's the key
because if he overplayed, then Buffalo's easily the side tonight.
(03:59):
But if you think that's what he's capable of, then
obviously the adjustment wasn't warranted on the Houston side because
he's coming in off back to back wins.
Speaker 3 (04:09):
That's what makes this tough.
Speaker 4 (04:10):
I look at the total.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
Here's what I can tell you, nothing but over money
from the recreational betters.
Speaker 4 (04:16):
Why isn't this total higher?
Speaker 2 (04:17):
That's what I'm questioning because you have a Buffalo team
that's the number one offense. You have a quarterback in
Josh Allen that's coming off a six touchdown pass game,
and an offense that put up forty four. Oh wait,
and a defense that allowed thirty two, and all of
a sudden, we're looking at a total of forty three
and a half and no movement. Anytime it went to
(04:38):
forty four, it got bought back down.
Speaker 4 (04:40):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
Market Reid tells me that Sharp's really like the under
in this game, and that's going to help limit the
risk that the books have on the over, because, like
I said, whether they're taking Buffalo, whether they're taking Houston,
they're doing it with the over, and most of the
Buffalo action is coming in on the money line or
on teasers, so they don't want to lay the five
(05:04):
and a half or six. Instead, they're taking Buffalo because
remember the look at was two and a half three,
So they made it easy for us. We only have
to answer one question. Is the drop off from stround
two mills worth three points? Because that's what you're paying
for it. If it is, you bet the favorite. If
(05:25):
it isn't, you bet the dog total. Want to be
on the side of the Sharks. Probably want to go under.
You think the public is going to hit another prime
time game, Agree and go over. College football really nothing,
same situation, favorite money and over comes pretty much every
primetime game. But because this is a coin flip orchanessal
(05:47):
State about two and a half point favorite, you get
in two way action on the side, which is expected.
But like the NFL game, regardless of whether they're taking
Arkansas State or UL Lafayette, they're tying it into the
over and once again the fifty four is still sitting there,
no adjustment. In fact, some of the Sharper shops had
(06:08):
the undershaded at minus one p fifteen, so they're booking
all that over money comfortably. That tells you anything in
the college football game.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
So it's an interesting point about the drop off from
from CJ. Stroud to Davis Mills. I don't think so.
I don't think there's a three point drop off. I
could be completely wrong, but it's a Houston team that
has a really good defense and a Buffalo team that's
got the second worst rush defense. I just I don't
say I kind of like Davis Mills. But when you're
(06:41):
talking about backup quarterbacks. He's got to be up up
at the top. Liken't it like he's got to be
up up. I don't know that. That's my I'm not
betting this game, so I can't tell you. I can't
tell you I'm like that much confident that I'm going
to put my money on it. But just feels like
it's a little bit of an overreaction. So Stroud hasn't
been that good. Look at anything with basketball here.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
Yeah, let's look at NBA real quick, because this is
that Thursday where you get, you know, the TV standalone
more or less prime time games. They get mostly parlay action.
So far, here's what we got. All four favorites are
getting bet that's the Magic, the Spurs, the Grizzlies, and
the Bucks. The two heaviest are Grizzlies minus two and
(07:26):
a half and then the Magic at minus five and
a half. Like they're betting those two, parlaying those two,
teasing those two like they already have the final score.
And if you notice not much line movement, you look
at Memphis that actually opened three went down the one
then moved back up. Like I talked about an NBA
(07:46):
you see nothing but two way steam because they're able
to manipulate these lines so easily. And then you look
at the case of Orlando Square shops have six. You know,
Sharper Shops got five and a half. So that just
reflects what I'm saying. Public money on the favorites. You
don't get a lot of sharp money on NBA. Most
(08:07):
of the sharp money that comes in on NBA is
on totals, where they're able to push the totals so
significant that then they could come back and work a
nice middle or on player props, team totals second half
live in game. That's where most of the ev comes from.
They don't do a lot of sides or totals before
the game, except, like I said, totals to middle and
(08:28):
signe based on injuries or player sitting. It's all information
based and you gotta be real quick to the trigger,
Like you don't even need a source. You just gotta
have odds logic and you'll see the line move like
once that light screen lights up across the board. If
you have any slow books, you can make a lot
of money in the NBA. Like I have two books
(08:50):
that are really slow to adjust because as they book
is square money. I could bet really small with them.
But that's what I do. I just pick off those lines.
I mix up others things, obviously. But once that odd
screen lights the odds logic screen lights up on a side,
it's almost always always a player sitting out injury related.
(09:10):
In the NBA, it's almost never like a move based on,
you know, inefficient line because of power ratings like you
see in NFL or college football.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
Could I just do the Can I just beg people
not to tease the NBA. You can't.
Speaker 4 (09:28):
You're talking about the points to help you.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
Guys, guys, please don't tease the NBA.
Speaker 4 (09:35):
Please don't do it.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
Like you'll save a lot of money.
Speaker 2 (09:38):
If you just you're doing it wrong, Like if you're
de'sing NBA regardless of your results, I promise you you're doing
this wrong. Like you got to revisit your thesis. There's
nothing wrong with that. There's nothing harder for a man
to look in the mirror and come to the conclusion
that their thesis is wrong. But you have to do
that on occasion if you want to, you know, flip
(09:58):
the results and teasing NBA at college basketball. College football
isn't going to go well for you long term.
Speaker 1 (10:06):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, a couple of injuries, I think you
honest is out tonight. So I'm actually kind of surprised
that Philadelphia Lion hasn't moved more than that. I wonder
if I'm actually really and it got.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
Two and a half two times I've seen it at
the two and a half this morning and it got
picked off boom boom to two and a half on Milwaukee.
Speaker 1 (10:25):
Well, I mean last listen, actually, maybe maybe I do
know why last time this happening, Yan set out they
won outright better right, the line flipped and then they
just won one outright completely. So, uh, let's anything else?
Do you got anything with hockey?
Speaker 3 (10:40):
Anything?
Speaker 2 (10:42):
We got some uh a good, it's a huge slate, Yeah,
a good NHL board tonight. Let me tell you what
sticks out because I know we got the hockey betters
out there all right?
Speaker 4 (10:54):
Oh yeah, pub.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Public on Columbus, sharp account on Toronto that jumps out
right way of the square counts are on Philadelphia of
the square counts or on Chicago that sticks out because
it's only a minus one ten minus one fifteen line.
Speaker 4 (11:14):
And all the dog, the dog that they love.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Is Anaheim against Ottawa. These are all square accounts. They
love Anaheim the Night, They love Anaheim the.
Speaker 4 (11:26):
Night Wow as a dog.
Speaker 2 (11:28):
And like I said, those those the coin flip game,
which sticks out a lot because anytime you see a
minus one fifteen, one twenty with that one sided action, yeah,
usually doesn't.
Speaker 1 (11:40):
End up well for the betters.
Speaker 2 (11:42):
So that's kind of what's sticking out in the NHL.
All Chicago, like I said, All Chicago against Seattle and
then All Philadelphia, and those again are two closely lined games.
Speaker 4 (11:54):
It shouldn't be that one sided.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
I don't I don't urge anyone to try to fade
the pub as a means to get rich. But there
are times you want to read the market and it's
really screaming at you that they're willing to book NonStop
action on Team A at a discount. They usually have
a strong conviction on why they're doing that. To me,
(12:17):
at least I pay attention to that stuff.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
We had a weird UFC card. We'll finish up with UFC.
This one. This one has trip ups written over it
all over it. Is there anything that you're kind of like,
I mean, we got a minus six hundred and the
main event which seems Sully.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
This is the books telling you we don't want any
Army or Eurokian money, don't We don't want to book Armin,
We want to book the hooker side. This is them
taking a position saying we're comfortable booking the hooker side
because anyone bet and Sarukin, they're going to have to
get created, whether he does it inside the distance, does
it by decision or method of victory. They're not laying
sixty dollars to win ten. That's not going to happen.
(12:58):
So that's the problem with the main event Co Maine event.
That line's gotten way out of whack. You know, Gary's
now almost a three to one favorite against the previous
champ in Belah. But x'es and O's Gary should should
be an easy fight for Gary, like he should start
to pick the law apart as the fight progresses. And
let's not forget Belaws closer to forty than he is
(13:20):
thirty right now, so he's getting up there in age.
He already reached the pinnacle as well. This is a
letdown spot for him. So I like Gary, the price
has just gotten away from us. This has been a
difficult card. I released four plays already. I'm coming off
really good back to back weeks in the UFC, so
I've been selective and narrowed down four plays that I like.
But I'll give you one real quickly, a favorite in
(13:41):
the first fight of the night that jumped out at me,
and I laid the chalk immediately. That line's climbing on
Denzel Freeman strictly strength of schedule. Freeman's fought at Belatour PFL.
He against an opponent who has a very weak strength
of schedule undefeated, but only two of those opponents had
a winning record. Now, sometimes you can't knock the guy
for that, you just can't find fights, But you got
(14:03):
to give credit to the guy with the tougher strength
of schedule. I don't necessarily look down at a guy
with a weak strength of schedule because again a lot
of times I've found out from Contender series, they just
can't book a fight for this guy.
Speaker 4 (14:13):
No one wants to fight him.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
But the guy that's been tested definitely goes into that
fight with the advantage. And I respect the steam that
came in on Freeman, and I agree with that side
as well. He's got one loss or will he'd be
an undefeated fighter, also young still you know, developing, But
I think he wins his fight three out of four times.
Anything less than minus three hundred. Again, I think it
(14:37):
is the right side. Probably bet him inside the distance,
get a better price. Probably not telling you anything.
Speaker 4 (14:41):
You don't know.
Speaker 2 (14:41):
Minus two hundreds win more than they don't. But I
just think that's an underpriced minus two hundred.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
Yeah, they're both wrestlers, but Freeman's going to be a
little bit more. Freeman's gone the distance, He's got probably
better cardio, he's preaging.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
He's just more.
Speaker 2 (14:56):
Yeah, it just seems like he's got more prepared to
win that fight.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
I've got an underdog for you. I'll take Ryan Loader again.
Speaker 4 (15:04):
Oh I bet him, Yes, I bet him.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
There you go.
Speaker 4 (15:06):
That's a premium play of mind too. We're on the
same side there, yes.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
Yeah, yeah, Loader a wrestler. Nardia will give up. If
you give you give him any opportunity to give up,
he will absolutely give up.
Speaker 2 (15:16):
So, yeah, he's either gonna make that look easier. We're
gonna be way on the wrong side. He's gonna get
kot like he's if he If he implements his game,
it's our fight.
Speaker 4 (15:24):
To lose plus.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
Absolutely absolutely, So all right, uh Yanni, it's Thursday. We're
buckling up for football Friday tomorrow. But tell him what
you have up for Thursday.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
Yeah, yeah, here's what's already up. I got the UFC package.
Like I said, four plays already in it stands selective.
We've turned it around looking for a big twenty twenty
six in MMA. College football package isn't up yet. That's
by design because I'm firing a five percent only. This
will be only the fifth five percent in college football.
Number one in profit, over one hundred and thirty units.
All was up eighty units in October. Now in November
(15:54):
it's gotten up the one thirty. We still have the
bowls and all that stuff ahead, and like I said,
the five percent coming. The timing is everything already. My
NFL package is up there also for Sunday, handful of.
Speaker 4 (16:06):
Plays in there.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
I have the Thursday night NFL game four percent standalone,
thirteen and five run on those primetime games.
Speaker 4 (16:14):
And last but not least.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
The steam sheet is out today and they're gonna get
a lot of gold throughout the day. I'm gonna have
a lot of fun with it. So that's the luck
to you guys. Football Friday, tomorrow, big weekend, big month ahead,
the holidays, next week. No better days to bet than
those four with people all from work, eating leftovers and
betting college football.
Speaker 4 (16:34):
So yeah, really looking forward to the next few weeks.
Best the luck to everybody this weekend.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
Johanny the Greek, thank you so much. And yes, Joannie
is a big part of football Fridays. We'll be on
tomorrow same time. Get you ready for the weekend. Let's
still right into some free plays. Let's do some let's
do all around the world. We're doing the NFL edition.
Then we're gonna get Juveniari's thoughts here. I do have
a play up for clients up for sale as well
for Thursday football. It's the one best bet that we
(17:02):
have on the board for props. If you want to
get that play, it's up. If you want the full
week and the full weekend, where you get Thursday, you
get Sunday, you get Monday. That's on the special pages.
We also have two, not one, but two UFC best bets.
We've hit seven in a row, going for nine straight
winners this weekend after another sweep last Saturday. So two
best bets in UFC, and our cricket play is still
(17:25):
up that goes off tonight. It's half price. They're letting
us run a half priced cricket play because we know
it's we know everyone's focused on NFL, NBA, NHL, So
we want to get you guys ready for cricket because
the ashes are here, and we got another couple of
tournaments that are coming up. So let's cash with cricket,
get those UFC plays, And of course we have our
Thursday night football play nineteen and eleven in primetime plays
(17:49):
in NFL this season. So a lot of good stuff
going on at wt dot buzz slash al.
Speaker 4 (17:53):
All right, let's take a look.
Speaker 1 (17:54):
At what plays and props we should be looking at here.
I like Tyrel Shavers, Kean Coleman got benched again. What
do we talk about yesterday? Don't in life, don't give
people a reason to bench you because you will be replaced.
And now all of a sudden, they're like Keon Coleman,
you're missing meetings. Tyrel Shavers is gonna go out and
(18:15):
put his life on the line, so I'm gonna take
him over twenty three and a half receiving Coleman gets
benched last week, Shavers comes in four catches, ninety yards,
explosive receiver, and Coleman's out again tonight. So it's all
I need to know about that one. Dalton Schultz under
thirty seven and a half receiving. This Bills team the
number one defense against tight ends. They only give up
twenty seven yards per game. You can get after this
(18:37):
Bill's defense, just tight ends have not been able to
do it. So we're gonna fade Dalton Schultz and then
take a look at Xavier Hutchinson over one and a
half receptions. First real game that he played with Davis Mills,
he had no catches and no targets against Jacksonville. The
next week, though, five targets and three catches with Davis Mills.
So we're gonna take Davis Mills to get Xavier Hutchinson
(18:57):
a couple of receptions in the game tonight. All right,
let's bring in Juvenieri. We gotta talk a couple games tonight.
We're gonna talk Thursday night football. We're gonna talk seventy
six ers in Bucks. But as always, we do our
update on the LSU saga. I don't know if you
saw this where the governor. The governor did an interview
(19:19):
and he was like, I talked to Lane Kiffin for
two hours at this at this like fundraising function. But
he's like, go ask this reporter. He knows more about
the search than I do. So they go and ask
the reporter and he goes, yeah, that never happened.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
I'm pretty sure he saw has a job.
Speaker 5 (19:36):
So I'm not sure that there's gotta be some rules
somewhere along camping negotiating with the current tampering team, who,
by the way, has a college football playoff golden ticket
in his back pocket right now. And I've said it
all week, Andy, I said, you know what, forget about
money fame. Looks what you want in life is leverage,
(20:00):
and nobody has more of it than Lane Kiffin right now.
He he has them all, old miss He's got Florida,
He's got he's got every fan base so you know,
holding on to their bread to decide what he's gonna do.
He's got Jimmy Sex that is an agent, playing everybody
against one another. Uh, just absolutely priceless. And by the way,
(20:23):
he'll end up at Florida. So getting to the predictable
markets and he's going to Florida. That'll be where he lands.
Speaker 1 (20:30):
RJ agrees with you going to doing to Florida.
Speaker 4 (20:32):
That's why wouldn't you just stay there?
Speaker 1 (20:34):
I never understand why why people have to keep jumping around.
Isn't he built something really good there? It feels like
you kind of got it, man, I don't know.
Speaker 4 (20:42):
There's what I'm laughing at.
Speaker 5 (20:43):
ANDAs so, now what is every other school doing? Like
he can only coach at one school? So like what
what are what is? What are what are the rest
of you doing? Like at this are you putting it
all into into the into the lane? No, he's going
to Florida. That's the only place I think he's gonna go.
He will not be hanging out and have to answer
(21:03):
to a governor of LSU.
Speaker 4 (21:05):
It's not gonna happen.
Speaker 1 (21:06):
I don't think that governor realized he just puted a
lot of people away from that job.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
Yep.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
Well, let's take a look at Thursday night football here
Bills and Texans. I think this is a fascinating game.
I'm gonna be excited to watch this one. I kind
of think Davis Bills is not terrible. I think I
think he's one of the better backup quarterbacks and this
line move. Interested in your take? Buffalo is gonna be
five and a half point favorites here over under forty
three and a half? What's your breakdown on Thursday Night football?
Speaker 5 (21:35):
What listen, Heat's a very competent backup, right, He's not
a he's not a rookie, he's not a new same
thing with Mason Rudolph.
Speaker 3 (21:42):
Like guys that have been in.
Speaker 5 (21:43):
The system, they've been here, they're not gonna be overwhelmed
by the spot.
Speaker 3 (21:49):
But you know, CJ.
Speaker 5 (21:50):
Stroup would have been the better quarterback. But what I
found interesting with this was the fact that I mean
a look aheadline here was two and a half three Andy,
and I knew the minute Stroud was either in or
out was gonna affect where this line went. The minute
that he was ruled out, I mean, this line doubled,
but the total never went anywhere.
Speaker 3 (22:10):
So what are you telling me here?
Speaker 5 (22:12):
So you're expecting, now, Davis Bell, So now Buffalo is
just gonna win by a greater margin on a short week.
So you're still telling me you don't believe that the
Texans are gonna be able to put.
Speaker 3 (22:23):
Up enough points. And this is a top five defense.
Speaker 5 (22:26):
It's an elite defense, and usually Andy, we like to
look at the home teams on short weeks like this,
especially teams that are getting points. But that works usually
early in the season. Here's a couple of facts for you.
When you from week eleven on Thursday night, favorites of
more than two points one oh one sixty eight to
(22:48):
two against the number. So usually you're gonna get those
home dogs and those outright dog winners on a short week.
It happens earlier in the season, not towards the later ends,
so that means basically, the better teams usually win these
games at this time of year. I wouldn't listen. I
wouldn't want anybody but the Bills in this game. But
(23:11):
I think all the value lies exactly that in the total.
The Bills team total twenty four and a half. Are
they gonna drop more than twenty four points on this defense?
Could very well be. I wouldn't put it past Josh
Allen on having another big night, But to me, I
think fading once again. The Texas team total twenty and
a half, I think is what I saw Andy, maybe
(23:33):
even twenty one now, I just don't see them having
that much success. They still can't run the ball. They
have scored one rushing touchdown inside the five yard line
this year.
Speaker 6 (23:44):
One.
Speaker 5 (23:44):
Okay, what the hell happened to chub I mean, my
goodness here, So I don't know that that gets corrected
with Davis Mills. It feels like the under in some way,
shape or form has got to be played in this game,
whether it be team totals or the full game at
forty three and a half.
Speaker 3 (24:02):
That's the only way I would look at this.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
That's that's that's awful. One rushing touchdown inside the five.
Speaker 4 (24:09):
Yard line, They're awful.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Yeah, well, I mean, come on, what's happened to Chubbs?
His knee is being held together with a coat hanger
and a prayer. I mean, the poor guys.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
But his offensive line is special too.
Speaker 1 (24:20):
Well, that's special is a good word. Special is a
really good word. So let's go to NBA. Let's dive
into the seventy six ers and the Bucks. Looks like
Giannis is going to be sitting tonight. Embiid probably probably
in Paul George. I don't know. Paul George played one
(24:42):
game then they sat him. Now he looks like he's back,
and uh, It's amazing, man. This seventy six ers team,
they literally look like two different teams. They literally look
like two different teams when you put Paul George and
Joel Embiid into the lineup. So what do you make
of this Phillies a minus two and a half point
favorite over under two twenty four and a half.
Speaker 5 (25:01):
Well, they you know, last night the Sixers played Embiid
and George were held out right and then they promptly
turned the ball over I think twenty one times to
Toronto who was having a field day scoring on them.
So they kind of shot themselves in the foot last
night to seventy six ers. But it does look like
they're going to have Paul George back on the court
here tonight and likely Embiid for this game, which certainly
(25:26):
will help because they still have Tyrese Macshi, they still
have Edgecumbe Quinton Grimes are going to do the.
Speaker 3 (25:32):
Bulk of the scoring.
Speaker 5 (25:33):
The problem is, if you're looking at the Milwaukee Bucks,
who else can we try? I mean, Giannis was averaging
almost thirty points a game for this He was literally
carrying this team and that best all they could do
Andy was win one, lose one.
Speaker 3 (25:48):
Win one, lose one.
Speaker 5 (25:49):
The kid Ryan Rollins has been phenomenal, but you know what,
is it a one man show?
Speaker 2 (25:55):
Now?
Speaker 5 (25:55):
What is Gary Trent Junior going to? I just I
think phill it Helia has the edge. The look aheadline
last night was minus one. I think we're seeing two
and a half's now in this game. The total has
cratered in this one. But I think even on the
second of a back to back and opportunity here to
get Paul George and Embiid back on the court, yeah,
(26:17):
I think the edge has to go to Philly here
tonight in this one. I don't trust Milwaukee without Yan
is available.
Speaker 1 (26:24):
Really, I thought they didn't they win last time, they
said Jannis, I don't know. I I thoroughly enjoy this.
I love edge Combe, I love watching the Sixers and
watching Maxican edge. Ye there, yeah, yeah, that'll be it'll
be an interesting game tonight. So all right, so you're
you're rolling with h rolling with Philly tonight eight and six.
(26:45):
I actually bet their season win total under at the
beginning of the year, and I just I'm like, come on,
bring back in beat in Paul George when they start,
when they started.
Speaker 3 (26:57):
They' no mistake about it.
Speaker 5 (26:59):
They'll be rare and oh by March at this rate,
and when they play every eighth game, so until one
of them gets hurt again, and then that'll be the
end of it.
Speaker 1 (27:08):
Absolutely, Joe, don't play recesses over.
Speaker 4 (27:12):
Yeah, is not play that.
Speaker 1 (27:16):
Does not get paid by the hour. All right, So Joe,
tell her what you have up at wage you talk.
Speaker 5 (27:22):
Let's see we are lontaloaded. Five percent college football best bet.
Andy is ready to roll for Saturday. I do have
a big college basketball card up right now, number one
in basketball, NBA and college basketball combined. Here, guys over
the last thirty days, love this slate tonight.
Speaker 3 (27:42):
We have an all access package up.
Speaker 5 (27:45):
I believe we've got five total plays in college hoops,
one in the NBA. And go get that five percent
best bet in college football because as sure as I'm
sitting here, by the time we get the Saturday, that
number will not be available. So take it while you can, Andy,
and let's cash these tickets tonight.
Speaker 1 (28:03):
All right, Juvenr, you got a five percent best bet up,
Like you said, go get that play. Don't let this
line get get it get ahead of you, because we
got to take plays down. If the line if the
like literally, we have to take plays down if the
line moves too much. So you don't want to be
on the sidelines of a while everyone's cashing a ticket.
So Joe Niary, thank you so much. Uh, get some
support here in the chat. Joe's five percent NF I
(28:24):
mean a lot of cash this week?
Speaker 5 (28:26):
All right?
Speaker 1 (28:27):
All right, Joe Verniery, So all right, Uh, we're gonna
do a same game parlay real quick? How can you
not ask Yanni about college basketball? Please don't forget college basketball? Sadly,
it is too early in the day to get any
confirmation on on the steam report for college basketball. I've
asked Yanni about this, so any moves that we have
(28:50):
right now cannot be confirmed, and we do not want
to give out bad information. Some of these line moves,
you don't really know exactly what's going on. For example,
like Pitt in Central Florida, we've had big move on
the under, but we don't know if there's gonna be
buy back and we won't know till later the day.
So rather not give out information rather than give out
bad information. So that's what's going on with college college basketball.
(29:13):
So all right, let's do a same game, parlay.
Speaker 4 (29:17):
Hit our.
Speaker 1 (29:18):
We hit ours last week here, so you gave it
a nice plus one sixty two. Let's get this thing
over two hundred, same game, Parlay. I'm gonna go back
to Shavers and get him two plus receptions. Do worry
about this defense? They're really good. I worry that Houston's
gonna run the ball a lot, But I don't know.
I just I think Shavers. I think they got something
(29:41):
going here with with Tyrol Shavers. I think Josh Allen
really likes him. So let's go Shavers two plus receptions
and I'll take Davis Mills two hundred plus. Passing this
one is probably my most worrisome, But listen, this guy's
stone for two seventy four and two ninety two over
his last two starts. Does he fall apart tonight? It
could absolutely happen. But he's got a lot of attempts,
(30:03):
he's got a lot of he's got a lot of
catches from his receivers. Nico Collins has been really good.
So I'll take Davis Mills two hundred plus. I'll take
an al team total. Joe's talking about taking under twenty one.
I like the Texans to get two touchdowns you can
run on this Bills team. They are second worst. I
think they can move the ball. I think they can
get two touchdowns in them. So I'll take the Texans
over thirteen and a half same game. Parlay all of
(30:26):
those together and it gets you plus two four. All right, Yeah.
RJ brings up a good one, a good point. The
guys do a college basketball show, Deep dive into college
basketball this morning, so they'll break down all the games
a lot more in depth, and they'll give you their
(30:46):
thoughts on spreads in total. So it's a really good
college basketball show on the YouTube channel. So, Dan, are
you gonna be doing anything with the game tonight for
your picks? If anything, for me, it would be Houston,
but it's not gonna be.
Speaker 4 (31:01):
I never play. Yeah, I never played the Thursday night
games because then you have to lock your card in.
Like we always lock our carden on Friday afternoon, even
if we do the show early, just in case, you know,
so the crazy happens. Like I saw what Baker Mayfield
he was he was limited with with the illness on Wednesday,
so like we like to wait until Friday to lock
(31:21):
our carden simply in case there's anything like that far
as the game is concerned tonight, Like, I don't know,
I just look at this Houston team and you know,
Joe with a great breakdown there on you know how
the defenses play, uh you pointing out how Houston's pretty
solid here, you know against the run, and Buffalo's you know,
kind of weak against the run here. But it just
(31:42):
feels like this is is a bit of a square
dog here in Houston. Now you're getting Buffalo under five
and a half. I'm sure if you're on social media,
you saw, you know, the posts about Josh Allen Thursday
Night football eight and oh straight up average margin of
victory around like fourteen points per game. So you know,
(32:02):
if you like that those kind of trends, it means
you know, they'll probably win there. And with Houston, it
just kind of feels like.
Speaker 1 (32:11):
I'm thinking, as soon as I see those Twitter trends,
I would take Houston out right as.
Speaker 4 (32:16):
Soon as But so so, there's also been a Twitter
trend that's gone every single week that's Detroit Lions off
of a loss, and are you fading that it's thirteen
and h you know, So that's what I mean, is
like one of the things is you just ride the
streak until it loses. So sure, you want to call
(32:36):
your shot and say this is the time to fade it,
you know, more prorogative, you know that that's your prerogative
to do so. But I'm more like, hey, let me
ride a trend until it loses, and then I go
back to it, and then if it loses again, okay,
then I'll start pivoting off of it. But that one again,
like when it's like a Thursday night thing, that doesn't
mean as much to me, but it just feels like
(32:58):
for me, how often have we seen these backup quarterbacks
like Davis Mills come in and then they're competent for
a few weeks and then it's kind of like it
catches up with the Buffalo because New England keeps winning,
they're not afforded. Hey, let's let up. It's the only
Thursday night football. This is a you know, non divisional game.
Buffalo has to keep pace with New England. So I
(33:20):
think you're gonna get a fully focused effort, and Buffalo's
gone on the road and laid some stinkers here. I
think this line feels like it should be seven to
seven and a half, so I would lay under the
touchdown with the Bills.
Speaker 1 (33:32):
I mean, the Bill's got the Bills gotta be like,
are you kidding me? So it's like, all right, Bill's
we got a short week, we get like an awesome defense,
and who do the Patriots get another layup? They get
the Bengals and oh, by the way, Jamar Chase is suspended,
so they get to play the Bengals without Jamar Chase.
Speaker 4 (33:52):
Like, but like, Joe Burrow might play in that game.
I don't think it really matters if you don't have
Jamar Chase, you know. But but how crazy is it
that we're what it's week twelve and after it seemed
like Joe Burrow was done done, Joe Flacco kept the
ship afloat. So Burrow might be playing on Sunday. It's
not enough for me to be on or against either side.
(34:14):
I'm looking for my chance to finally fade the Patriots.
I think it's going to come in the first round
of the playoffs. But but yeah, that's that's that's crazy
to me, Patriots. It's so great.
Speaker 1 (34:27):
It got me too, because so I have Justin Herbert.
Now he's been pretty awful, but I needed. I was
looking ahead and I need to back up for this
week because he's off. So I was like, I'll get
Flacco Flaco Patriots. He'll be throwing a lot, so I
go and pick him in. I got him in Burrow,
and now I don't have Jamar Chase.
Speaker 4 (34:45):
Really, Andy, I gave you. I gave you the trend
about how you know Josh Allen he wins ones that
you won't find on Twitter. How about some of these
from from Mark Lawrence and so we have a little
time here if you are pro Houston Texans noted that
actually this is not a good good Davis Mills stat
Davis Mills oh and ten straight up three and seven
(35:08):
against the spread when they're facing foes coming off a
straight up and against the spread wins. So when they
have a team that just won and covered the spread
like they the Bills did, oh and ten straight up
three and seven against the number, oh and five against
the spread in those same games if the's a single
digit underdog, so the sub sect it was already a
(35:29):
bad sub sect, but the against the spread. Five of
those seven losses come when they're a single digit underdog
like they are tonight. However, here's the one for you
Texans backers. Bills struggling in the first of back to
back road games. We saw this earlier this year when
they actually had three straight and then they went on
the road to face the Falcons. That's why I like
(35:49):
the Falcons in that game, first of back to back
road games, O seven and one against the number I haven't
covered one time in the first of their back to
back road games. So a couple is there for you
as as you can say into your buddies and sound smart.
That's that's really what trends are.
Speaker 1 (36:07):
I'll give you a goofy trend.
Speaker 4 (36:09):
Christian, I love them.
Speaker 1 (36:11):
Christian Kirk, his receiving total is twelve and a half
yards night over in every single game that c. J.
Stroud started under In both games that Davis Mills started,
his reception totals one and a half. He's only had
one catch each of the last two weeks, so that's
(36:31):
a bummer for maybe like Christian Kirk and Davis Mills
don't get along very well.
Speaker 4 (36:37):
Oh Andy, all right, one one more for you here
is we're just throwing out random stats. We talked about
that Bengals in Patriots game. Here's one. You know strap
in because this is about a paragraph quantifying a trend
that has never lost. Play on this is from Mark Lawrence.
Play on any zero and three straight up or against
(36:59):
this spread. NFL non division home dog in its last
three games versus a seven to fifty or greater opponent.
That's winning percentage if the home dog.
Speaker 6 (37:14):
Scored ten plus points in its last game, provided it
won sixteen or more in their previous thirty two home games.
Speaker 4 (37:25):
So, Andy, who that applies to if your brain still
works and you haven't gone cross eyed? Is the Cincinnati Bengals.
They are eight and oh one hundred in that of course,
in that it.
Speaker 1 (37:37):
Applies yeah, yeah, with with with quarterbacks coming off of
foot injuries and they're number one wide receiver suspended.
Speaker 7 (37:47):
It makes me think in Austin Powers and when he's
explaining time travel to Austin Powers and he's like, wait,
so if I go back and then, does that mean
that I'm still frozen in the year nineteen foot.
Speaker 4 (37:59):
And he goes, oh my god, I've gone cross eye.
Speaker 1 (38:01):
That's how I found That's how I felt.
Speaker 4 (38:07):
Uh, Okay, what about this?
Speaker 1 (38:09):
Your Eagles? You got you guys won Week one When
you're when Jalen Carter got suspended for spitting for spinning
on a guy in pregame spinning games. Want to know
when losing, when miss opponent.
Speaker 4 (38:24):
When missing a player due to spit. NFL teams in
twenty twenty five are one and oh do they become
to and oh?
Speaker 3 (38:34):
This week.
Speaker 1 (38:37):
Two was a trend Dan.
Speaker 4 (38:42):
Trend trend watch, we got hashtag trend watch. Will there
be a spinning trend?
Speaker 1 (38:52):
Hop, you're so corny, David Mills told Christian Kirk. The
jerk started called in there out of him.
Speaker 4 (39:00):
Nice Seinfeld reference.
Speaker 1 (39:02):
Oh, it's pretty good. It's pretty good, Rob.
Speaker 4 (39:05):
No, the Bengals didn't lose because he was not suspended
during that game. Jalen Carter was suspended at the He's
kicked out of the game, so essentially he served his suspension.
So g Z money trust us. We are the trend whisperers,
and teams missing a player due to spit are one
to Oh that is still true. The Bengals did not
(39:26):
miss Jamar Chase. They will be missing him this upcoming
week due to salivation phrase.
Speaker 1 (39:35):
I never thought we would be going over all right,
all right, well, Dan and I will be covering all
of our Pick five Super contest pick tomorrow on Football
Friday once again Thursday Night Football best bet. That is
our best prop on the board. We've been absolute money
on primetime games nineteen and eleven this year. So if
you want just that prop, it is up. If you
(39:56):
would like the whole week, which we recommend, it's on
the specials pag. It's only four dollars more and you
get tonight's prop, you get all of Sunday, and you
get Monday Night football as well. So all props are included.
Two UFC best bets.
Speaker 4 (40:08):
Thatt Up.
Speaker 1 (40:09):
We've hit our last seven UFC plays is another sweep
last Saturday. So we're running a red hot mat and
we have our half priced cricket play that is up
that goes off tonight in the Ashes tournament that starts
to night. And actually I'm gonna be doing a live
show believe or not, Dan, our cricket department wanted to
do a live watch along. I'm going to I'm going
to be doing a live cricket shot.
Speaker 4 (40:29):
Set the line. Wait, wait are we setting the line
on views for the cricket view along? Andy? What are
we setting the line?
Speaker 1 (40:36):
Some people will watch because it starts at nine to
twenty and there'll be some people are nice to just
have a companion. Yeah, well it's a test match. They're
like three days long. It's eight hours a day for
like three days.
Speaker 4 (40:49):
So we'll just be doing.
Speaker 1 (40:50):
For the first couple of hours.
Speaker 4 (40:53):
It's just like yeah, like bags under your eyes and
you're all like sipping coffee like.
Speaker 1 (40:57):
The our cricket department. Ye on our cricket department. He's
a he's a lunatic. He stays up and watches all
of it. He will watch every this is in Australia. Okay,
it starts at like two am, so he watches all
this off. It's why, that's why he hit sixty percent
of his lifetime plays in cricket. There's a there's a
method to his madness. So yeah, that's seriously, that's the
(41:19):
kind of work you get, the work I think you
get from our cricket department.
Speaker 4 (41:22):
So it's true.
Speaker 1 (41:24):
Oh and what before we go, what, what did you
post in our slack about lacrosse?
Speaker 2 (41:28):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (41:28):
Yeah, so this is this is definitely something to keep
an eye on because the National Lacrosse League is kicking off.
They had a little standoff, but they're going to be
in play in the next few coming weeks here, and
they had partnered with a brand new, uh new in
its infancy to company that will provide live lines for them.
(41:51):
And not only are they going to do live betting lines, Andy,
they're going to be doing live player props on regulated
sports books via this this new this new technology that
they're going to be using. So Andy, you and I know,
whenever we hear new beta testing and whatnot. Typically NLL
is a because you know, I help Andy. I am
(42:13):
the lacrosse department, with the squad, with the Roads to
Million squad, and whenever we have something new, we always
have our ears perk up and a lot of people
are like, oh, I want to learn, Oh I want
to learn. Typically with NL that's the National Lacrosse League,
that's indoor lacrosse. This is something that we don't handicap
as much because there's heavy variants, but this could definitely
be something. You know, you definitely want to check out
(42:35):
the Discord channel because that's where you're able to actually post, Hey,
here's a live play, you know, and you're gonna want
to try and get to it. But there could be
some money to be made in the National Lacrosse League
this year, especially right out of the gate with some
new technology being tested.
Speaker 1 (42:50):
Eric, you're looking at the lacrosse department, Dan is our
lacrosse department. There's just no lacrosse going on. Yeah, there's
there's nothing going on right now to bet on, but yeah,
this starts up. So yes, if you guys follow lacrosse,
Holy Cow.
Speaker 4 (43:05):
And the Championship Series with just announced Andy, that's the
indoor version of what the Premiere Lacrosse League does. It's
a really fun product, really fast. It's sixes, so it's
a different form of lacrosse, a lot more higher scoring.
It's almost like basketball esqu when you have the rushes
up and down and you remember how it used to
be one weekend in February. It now extended it over
(43:27):
two weekends. So we're actually gonna have two weekends of
Championship Series, which is something that's always pretty kind to us.
Excited about that. The WLL, the Women's Lacrosse League, will
also be an action so we have. It's crazy because
lacrosse is right around the corner. Yes, I know it's
football season, but Andy, we cash in on cricket, we
cash in on darts, and especially when all the football
is going on. Early on, college lacrosse is going to
(43:49):
be starting up too, So I like our j I
appreciate the love there, man, and hopefully we continue to cash.
Speaker 1 (43:57):
I don't care about having a particular their play in
a particular game. I care about where's the money at.
This is where, this is where the money's at. So
I learned my lesson a long time ago. You'll lose
a lot of money trying to pick plays in your
favorite games. Focus on where the money is at, where
you make most money.
Speaker 4 (44:16):
That is my focus. On who is spitting and who
has got suspended for spitting?
Speaker 1 (44:20):
Want to know absolutely absolutely hot takes, Hot takes all right.
Thanks for joining us, guys, Please hit the like button,
leave us a comment. And I got something I would
have start working on for this show. I'm gonna talk
to Dan after the show and then we'll start implementing
it tomorrow. So I'm excited about that. So thanks very much.
It's Football Friday tomorrow, jam Pack Show Teddy Covers, Marco, Janny,
(44:42):
myself and Dan doing their super contest pick. So make
sure joining us tomorrow. Thanks very much for watching, guys.
Good luck on all your bets take care,
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