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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
One.

Speaker 2 (00:01):
You're a lot loaded show, loaded show for this Friday, September,
the twenty sixth Wager Talk Today, we are live at
noon Eastern Archive twenty four to seven afterwards for your
view and pleasure. I am Steve Merrill, filled in for
Andy Lang. Don't you worry. He'll be back on Monday,
but it'll also be here Sunday, I believe for end
zone line, unless he's going to the fourth round of
the golf tournament. So maybe I spoke a little prematurely,

(00:21):
but nonetheless, I will be running the ship today and
we've got a great show on Friday, NFL heavy as
Friday should be as we head into this great weekend
of college and pro football. Going to start off with
Yannie the Greek with the Steam Report, Teddy Covers, Marco DiAngelo,
Kelly Stewart. What a great show, let's get right to
it and Yannie two days in a row. What a treat,
What a pleasure. We broke the news yesterday that your

(00:42):
steam room will be free on Sunday. Just a reminder.
We'll talk a little bit more about the details for
that in a moment, but I want to get to
what's the steam report for Friday.

Speaker 3 (00:50):
Indeed, yeah, real slow so far.

Speaker 1 (00:53):
Major League Baseball just two dogs got bat at Detroit
plus one ten and Minnesota plus one forty even been
slow so far as looking.

Speaker 3 (01:03):
Into the weekend college football and NFL.

Speaker 1 (01:06):
Yesterday we saw a lot of the college football totals
get hit that usually happens on Thursday. Later tonight, with
all of the NFL injury reports being looked over with
a fine tooth comb, you'll start seeing some NFL movement
over the next twenty four hours. But it isn't until Sunday,

(01:26):
when we get a lot of the public money weighing
in and forcing the books to adjust to limit some
of the risks, that will see some of the bigger movements. Now,
we do have some primetime action tonight. I already fire
two premium plays two subscribers, both four percent best bets
on Tonight's college football currently number one in college football

(01:48):
in twenty twenty five, coming off a loser last night,
with Arizona Man still number one over the last thirty
days in profit.

Speaker 3 (01:55):
That one burned got to push on the total.

Speaker 1 (02:00):
Stung a little bit because I thought we were gonna
catch that one, all right. So here's what we got
looking at tonight's college football one sided actually on Florida
State and Virginia. A lot of Florida State money, a
lot of over money as well. Florida State teased with
the over Florida State parlayed with the over Florida State
money line, Florida State teased into other games, so there's

(02:23):
a lot of risk on Florida State.

Speaker 3 (02:25):
I'm surprised it's not painted seven all across the board.

Speaker 1 (02:30):
In fact, earlier this morning it did get painted across
at sevens. So obviously someone bet Florida State that got
some respect, but then immediately came back down the six
and a half. So obviously you're seeing some sharp money
grabbing the sevens at even money.

Speaker 3 (02:47):
It looks like on Virginia.

Speaker 1 (02:49):
So the books, I think, no, if they go to seven,
put it at even money, juice to big to the
minus seven, they'll probably get some love.

Speaker 3 (02:58):
On the Virginia side.

Speaker 1 (02:59):
Arizona to State TCU, this is one of those dogs
that are getting love by the betting public.

Speaker 3 (03:05):
TCU being teased up.

Speaker 1 (03:07):
I don't know why they're using them in teasers, but
they are taking them up to like plus nine. I
see them in seven point teasers up the plus ten.
I guess it sounds safe, but they're taking TCU, they're
taking TCU moneyline. They're also betting that game over. But
as you can see, Steam came in on the under.
As soon as that over came out at fifty six

(03:28):
and a half, you saw some under money come in.
And then finally the last game Houston, Oregon State all
one sided. Surprise, that's not at fourteen yet, and it'll
be interesting watch that odds logic screening here at least
the way you're talking odd screen to see if it
gets to fourteen doesn't get bit because I haven't seen
it yet at my sharp bounds, I've seen thirteen and

(03:50):
a half, I've seen thirteen and a half minus one fifteen,
but I haven't seen fourteen's yet. It'll be interesting to
see what happens there. And no surprise that game's also
getting bet over by the recreational betters. But you did
see some sharp money coming under of the opener at
forty eight and a half, but there hasn't been any
follow through on that one.

Speaker 3 (04:11):
So again, just to.

Speaker 1 (04:12):
Reiterate one signed public money on Florida State, TCU and Arizona.
I mean in Houston and all three overs by the
betting public. Whyse guys seem to like the under in
Arizona State under in Houston as well, And it looks
like they're picking off any sevens on Virginia at even

(04:36):
money or better.

Speaker 2 (04:38):
Yeah. I mean, all three games tonight are standing on
key numbers. And we touched on this a little yesterday
six and a half seven on the Florida State game.
Like you said, Arizona State's gone from two and a
half to three, and then as you said, Houston thirteen
and a half hasn't moved all week. Hard to like
Oregon State. They've been about as ugly as any team
in college football, yet that mine has not hit that
key number of fourteen. Yeah, I gotta ask you two

(04:58):
about last night. I mean, once again, an NFL game
comes right down to the number Lands forty three. Had
it gone to overtime, maybe at Lands forty six.

Speaker 4 (05:06):
Uh.

Speaker 2 (05:07):
The look aheadline the week earlier was actually forty six
and a half, and then they opened it forty two
and a half, forty three and a half. All around
that range. These NFL lines we talked about teasers yesterday.
Obviously the stronger the lines are they more accurate the
better teasers are, But these NFL numbers are incredible. College
football numbers, in my opinion, have been incredible. I've lost
several games now by half a point this season in
college football with four or five touchdown favorites. Have you

(05:29):
noticed this as well. I mean, I know they get
sharper every year, but they seem to be point on
so far this year.

Speaker 1 (05:35):
And I mean it just goes back to the simple
rule of don't take bad numbers and have multiple outs
to shop and if the number passes you by, let
it go. Like if you don't have the power to
move the market and bring the number back with ninety
nine point nine nine percent of us, don't then let
it go that. I mean, that's that's the bottom line.

(05:57):
I've just tried to make it a rule not to
take bad numbers because I got burned so many times
because you think you're on the sharp side, but you're
not if you're on it at a bad number. And
that was the case. You know in the NFL, where
the margins are so slim. I talk about it all
the time. You see a one point line movement and

(06:18):
sharp money ends up on both sides of the game,
like the lines are that tight in the NFL, where
it's not surprising when you know lines move one on
one and a half point to see a difference of
opinion from respected winning betters, because again the lines are
that tight in the NFL, which also helps the teaser,
which you touched on me and yesterday was a great example.

(06:39):
I talked about that, and fortunately I have an Arizona
teaser that's still live, and that's exactly a perfect situation
to use it in. When you got the NFL and
you got lines that are a market that's efficient, that's
exactly what you want for the teaser.

Speaker 3 (06:55):
You want the game to land near the number. That's
what you when.

Speaker 1 (06:58):
You cast your teaser. Otherwise you don't need the extra points.
So for me, you know that that ended up being
a good result. But again it goes to show you
so many of those games come down to that slim
meest of margin. And not only is every half point matter,
but we talk about it's the difference between being a
winning better and a losing better. You go ten and ten,

(07:18):
the juice is going to eat you up. You go
eleven and nine. You can continue to make money over
and over and over again. That's one game every twenty
so that half a point could be the difference between
being a winning better and a losing better every so often.
It really does matter that much, and I can't stress
it enough, especially in an age where people don't you
know that the argument there's still arguing twenty twenty five

(07:40):
whether SELB matters and you still have you know better's
betting big numbers that are out there talking about you
know it doesn't matter. CELB doesn't matter. Then the number
doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is cashing a ticket.
If the bet wins, it's a good bet. Like that
kind of nonsense, And nothing could be further from the truth.
So again, don't take bed numbers. Every half point matters,

(08:02):
and if the number passes, you're buying it, didn't get down,
let it go, wait for a better bet.

Speaker 2 (08:08):
Yeah, and it depends on what type of better you are.
If you're in Las Vegas for two days and you're
making five total bets on the weekend, then it probably
doesn't matter as much if you get a good bed number,
because once again, just about cashing tickets. But if you're
doing this daily, as all of us are, and all
of our clients hopefully are it adds up. I love
the analogy. One out of twenty bets. You know, that's
all you need to cash. With that half point, you're
gonna cover the big for several bets. And right now,

(08:31):
Florida State just dropped a six and a half flat
at Caesars, it's still seven five minus one fifteen the
other way at like Westgate. I mean, these are major books.
You could shop around by just having multiple counts right
now and get either six and a half or seven
depending on which side you like for Florida State Virginia.
Very reasonable juice either way, and there's probably a four
to five percent chance the seminoles went by exactly seven
points tonight. Yeah, and free, free, It costs nothing to do.

Speaker 3 (08:54):
That tonight right now.

Speaker 1 (08:56):
If you like Florida State, if you bet Florida State
and you have a minor seven ticket, you're doing it wrong,
right And if you have Virginia and you have plus
six and a half bet, you're doing it wrong.

Speaker 3 (09:07):
I hope you win.

Speaker 1 (09:08):
I hope you catch those bets, but I promise you
that's a recipe for not long term success. Like that,
you're not gonna win long term doing it that way,
you don't want to be like when there's a better
number of available out there, you want to have it.
If you're not betting it, then you know again you're
doing it the wrong way.

Speaker 2 (09:28):
And one final thing I'll say about the late game
that out of ten thirty Eastern Houston, Oregon State, it's
hard for our novice better, for recreational better maybe to
know which way the market's gonna move. But in this situation,
don't try to guess. If you like Houston, you play
the minus thirteen and a half. Now, if you like
Oregon State, you wait and hope to maybe get a
plus fourteen by kickoff in ten hours or so. And
the reason I say that is because the risk reward

(09:50):
going from thirteen to thirteen and a half is not
as bad as going from thirteen and a half to fourteen,
and vice versa with the dog. So that's the way
I look at it. Do you agree, disagreement? It's another
way to play if you're recreational player trying to get
to get the better the numbers.

Speaker 1 (10:02):
One hundred percent, that's great advice and something like you
said that anybody can do. You know, you don't have
to be a pro to do that and get a
better number. I absolutely think that's something they people should
use real quickly.

Speaker 3 (10:14):
Because of Roger.

Speaker 1 (10:15):
I got to address this because my man says Seahawks
and under teaser was as good as goal. Please just
because the bet wins doesn't make it a great bet.
I'm just telling you this. I'm not talking from a
level of authority. I'm talking as experience, from experience Mathematically,
this isn't an opinion. This is just the math of it.

(10:37):
Just because of a small sample size of twenty thirty
bets looks profitable. If the math shows that it's a
negative ev bet long term, after more and more bets, like,
the end results already predetermined. What I'm trying to explain
is if you're teasing NFL totals, you're already placing negative
V bets, so regardless of your short term results, the

(11:01):
end result is predetermined. Kind of like the casino with
a slot machine, they know what they're going to take
in before they pay out. The end result for the
house is predetermined. They know their profit before they pay out.
Even if the teaser is cashing over twenty thirty bets,
I promise you over statistically significant sample size. You get

(11:22):
into a couple hundred bets, it will no longer be profitable.
That's why you just don't want to tease NFL teasers. Again,
our job here is to try to educate, and most
of the education comes from experiences and mistakes that I
made myself and was taught by better sharper than me,
And it's our job to pass that information along. So

(11:44):
please don't ever take it as an insult, because it's
not stuff that anybody should know unless somebody shares that
with you. And I'm just telling you mathematically, teasing NFL
totals is negative eb That means the house expects you
to lose money, not getting the best of it if
it's working for you cash tickets. But it's just not

(12:05):
a good long term blueprint.

Speaker 2 (12:09):
It's funny when you jumped on that. I was thinking
the whole time. You don't want to tease the Seahawks,
But you're right about the totals. You don't tease enough
NFL totals. There's not enough key numbers. You're cross. You
can maybe make an argument thirty six and a half
up to forty two and a half or vice versa
with thirty seven and forty one. But that was the
old days. We don't see that any yes, and even
then it technically probably wasn't good enough. And now we're

(12:29):
not getting even money or minus one team and you're
laying one twenty five. Yeah, but yeah, you also don't
want to tease over zero with the Seahawks. Although last
nights came out a chance of going to overtime and
any of the tie, it's just there's too many dead numbers.
What's a better bet is playing the under and playing
the Seahawks separately, not having to win two plays to
bake the ticket cash. By the way, if you missed
yesterday's episode, Roger probably saw it. But if you missed it,

(12:50):
we went a deep dive in the NFL teasers, Yanni
and myself Steve Merrill so rewatched the Thursday, September twenty
fifth episode after this for some great teaser info. And yeah,
I gonna let you run. But we do have a
question real quick about the UFC. When I wanted to
get to a big fight this weekend, Jake was asking
your thoughts on the USC for this Saturday.

Speaker 3 (13:09):
Real quick main event.

Speaker 1 (13:10):
I like Oldbert, He's got too much power for Reyes
has three straight wins, but if you look at the
level of competition, the only good one was that first
one against Jacoby, where you know, he just landed a
big punch and took got him out of there. So
I like the favorite in the main event. And here's
a reverse line movement that I see everybody betting this
and I don't agree with it. Everybody's taking hold of

(13:32):
that Kolbe thickness. He's uh Bokanovsky's training partner. He lost
his debut to Tapuria's little brother. If you remember, he's
going up against Musasa.

Speaker 5 (13:41):
Dude.

Speaker 1 (13:42):
Musasa lost his debut as a minus eight hundred favorite. Okay,
he's very good. He's a very very good. He just
got he got caught in the submission in the very
first round. He opened in this fight as a minus
three hundred favorite. That's where he should be around a
minus three favor He's now down to minus one fifty

(14:02):
because of the Alexander Bolkonowski connections with the thick knee
side and people seeing Musasa getting subbed like that in the.

Speaker 3 (14:08):
Very first round.

Speaker 1 (14:09):
Trust me, this kid's a lot better than that. I
remember him from the Contender series. Doing research on him.
He wins this fight at minus one fifty is a gift.
So there take Josias Musasa on Saturday, and like I said,
in the main event, Oldberg knocks out Rays.

Speaker 2 (14:25):
Love it little UFC from Yonny the Greek as well.
And don't forget his steam room is free this Sunday.
You will see him again tomorrow. By the way to
the eleven am Eastern on Last Call Saturday. You'll see
him again Sunday, I believe at eleven am Eastern on
NFL Last Call. But then you got the steam room
at noon Eastern Sunday. Tell us more about that. It's
free for everybody this weeknd.

Speaker 1 (14:43):
Now join us at noon Eastern. We're going to go
through every NFL game. I'll share all the information I
have signed totals props. We'll have live bets coming in
as we go over money management, your date, results, the
goal as we close out the end of the year,
and hopefully we're coming off a huge college football Saturday.

(15:03):
I love tomorrow's board. In fact, we're kicking it off
the night. This week's to college football. There's two four
percents in there for you subscribers already get down and
let's have a big weekend.

Speaker 5 (15:13):
You have see tomorrow.

Speaker 1 (15:14):
I love that card. There's four to four percents already
in there. It's a really really good card in Perth.
Let's do some damage this weekend and just keep grinding.
Thanks for having me, Steve.

Speaker 2 (15:24):
Good luck to you, Johnny, good luck to you. It
was great to see him, my man, and once again
you can catch him tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday at eleven
am Eastern. Here a Last Call. You can talk more
UFC tomorrow because we do take the live questions in
the chat on the Last Call shows during the weekend,
so be sure to watch, and of course if you
do miss a live episode, you can watch all these
shows archive twenty four to seven. I referenced yesterday's Thursday
wager Talk today September twenty fifth, check that out for

(15:46):
a deep dot between Yanny and myself Steve Merrill on
NFL teasers. It's must see TV. Lots of promos going
on at wager Talk this weekend, but I also want
to point out one of the sister sites which is
near to the family, Picks and Parlays dot net. Grab
it seven dollar best bets from all participating in handicappers
this Friday right now Picks and Parlays dot net seven

(16:06):
dollars best bets. I don't have a seven dollar bill,
but you can imagine five dollars Tuesday. A blinkin plus
a couple George Washington's gets you a strong best bet
this Friday at picksandparlays dot net and then of course
at wager talk dot com. Tons of special offers on many,
too many to mention here on the show, So go
to the website. Check out any cappers page you will
see them. We have a one year all access, which
is the best offer in my opinion, for just three

(16:29):
dollars a day, all sports, all access, and you can
mix and match cappers, get multiple cappers, no promo code,
need it, and get best bets for three dollars a dance,
about a dollar a play for the next full three
hundred and sixty five days and nights. Check out all
the special offers and all the daily free plays at
wager talk dot com. All right, let's keep it rolling.
We've got Kelly Stewart coming up, Marco D'Angel, but we
got Teddy covers and Teddy I got to do a

(16:51):
better job of watching these Friday episodes because I'm told
there's a sauce pick of the week or something coming
up from Marco. I've told you and I have to
make two sides for NFL games, So you gotta walk
me through this. You were the co host for years
of this show. What's going on here on Fridays? Help
me out?

Speaker 6 (17:05):
So we're going to talk a little NFL, a little
college football, and then we have this sell me segment where.

Speaker 2 (17:09):
Okay, so I got time to prepare.

Speaker 6 (17:11):
Still then well, the whole the whole concept is neither
one of us prepares for it.

Speaker 2 (17:15):
Dan picks the game and perfect.

Speaker 6 (17:18):
You get to sign the side, and I get to
sign the side, and we try to sell the other
person on that side.

Speaker 2 (17:22):
So how I like to roll, I don't prepare, So
I'm good to go. What do you want to talk about? First?

Speaker 6 (17:28):
Let's see wish one' know? What do I have up top?
I have Eagles bucks first and mine's good.

Speaker 2 (17:34):
Yeah. You know, Tampa's interesting to meet Teddy because they
lost the coordinators. You know, Mayfield had a huge season
last year. The Eagles coming off the Super Bowl. Really
your take on both these teams and of course this
game as well, sure, I.

Speaker 6 (17:46):
Mean it's the only matchup of three and oh teams
this weekend, or both teams are three and oh. Of course,
looking at the odds logic live on screen right now,
I'm seeing Philadelphia minus three and a half total. There's
forty three and a halfs out there, there's forty four
out there. There's a couple of forty four and a
half's out there. So let's call it forty four three
and a half and forty four for Philadelphia in Tampa.

(18:07):
And of course, you know Philadelphia is nineteen and one
straight up in their last twenty games. Of course, their
twenty first game last year Week four, they went to
Tampa and they lost. The previous season, they went to
Tampa in the playoffs and lost, and neither one of
them particularly close thirty three to sixteen, thirty two to nineteen.

(18:28):
Jalen Hurts just one in three against the Bucks, including
that playoff loss. Now, it is worth noting that in
both of those losses, relatively recent losses for Philadelphia against
Tampa did not have AJ Brown available for either of
those games, and AJ Brown was certainly a difference maker
Last week when Philly rallied from behind to beat the
Rams six catches, one hundred and nine yards and a

(18:50):
touchdown in that ball game. But you know, you read
the quotes out of Philadelphia talking about what Tampa does,
why Tampa's given them credit. White team has given them problems,
and you see some credit going towards Tampa, you know
it hurts.

Speaker 4 (19:05):
Quote.

Speaker 6 (19:06):
Bowl's got a lot of tools and a lot of
things in his system. What he does that is very challenging.
That's what makes him such a great team and a
great defense. Of course, to defending Champs three and Ozho,
but they've won those games by a grand total of
fourteen points. You know, they managed just thirty three yards
of offense in the first half last week before going
nuts in the second half. And Saquon Barkley. We have

(19:28):
to talk about Barkley because this is the guy that
had what four hundred and thirty plus rushing attempts last
year County regular season in playoffs, and he's not, you know,
a young guy to begin with, He's what an eight
year vet. So when you have a guy who was
an eight year vet and that kind of mileage on
his legs and that kind of mileage last year, you
expect to drop off. That's just what we've seen three
games as long as just sixteen three point three yards

(19:51):
per carry. Right now, Saquon Barkley is a bet against
when you're talking about any type of prop you can
find for him, and that, in my mind, it makes
Philadelphia weaker, makes it more difficult for the Eagles to
win games by margin. Of course, he's facing a Tampa
defense and has allowed a single one hundred yard rusher
in the last eleven games. That's best in the NFL

(20:12):
during that span. And of course it's a Bucks team.
He asked me, would you rather have three blowouts or
three come from behind wins to open the season, And
I'll take the ladder as opposed to former.

Speaker 2 (20:23):
Any of the week.

Speaker 6 (20:24):
When a team comes from behind to win games, to
win battles, boy, the confidence you know they're battle tested.
The confidence rises when they're faced with adversity. You know
they can handle it. And that's exactly what Baker Mayfield
and company have done so far this season. You know,
Mayfield quote resilient group. We stick together, the whole team.
One part or phase of it's a little down, others

(20:46):
have to step up and be there for you. That's
what this team is all about we support each other
no matter what. Worth noting. Philadelphia does have some significant
injury concerns for this boggame, so it's Tampa. But Tampa
could get Chris Godwin back. They could get Tristan wursback
this week to impact players in the offensive side. We
know Mike Evans is out for Tampa, but you know

(21:07):
Nolan Smith, Jacoreyan Bennett, Daris Cooper all just wanted into
reserve lane. Johnson's been limited in practice all week. He
left last Sunday's game with this stinger. Zach Bond is
a concern this week. Jackson hasn't practice, so Philly's a
little banged up. They're laying a price against the team
that's mashed up well against them. I think it's a
little too high. If I'm playing, I want the home

(21:29):
dog in this one. Bucks or pass for this better.

Speaker 2 (21:33):
The Bucks are barking, says Teddy Covers in the NFL
this Sunday. Two teams off to a good start, and
Teddy want to look at some college football while we've
got you. I did a standalone video for this game
earlier in the weeks. I want to get your thoughts
as well, and it's number twenty six Alburn against number
nine Texas A and M. And that's because Auburn fell
out of the rankings this past week. They are getting
the most votes in the additional votes there in the

(21:54):
eight peop pole, so they are the twenty six team
technically in the country. So it just missed out on
my top twenty five here on wager Talk TV. Obviously,
if they pull the upset, they will be ranked again.
But Texas A and M is the home favorite off
to a good start this season. What's your thoughts on
this one in the SEC? Sure, let's talk about it.

Speaker 6 (22:10):
Three thirty Eastern, twelve thirty here on the left coast,
Texas A and M. Looking at the os Logic Live
odd screen minus six and a half total in the
fifty three range against Auburn, and it's pretty much painted
six and a half. I don't see sevens out there
at all. And there's a reason we're not seeing sevens.
That's because A and M's has a very disystisco profile

(22:30):
on defense, a roer and two against the s Brettit's
favorites this year. They didn't get the stops against Utah State,
the didn't get the stops against Texas. Stan Antonio and
Frankly didn't get stops against Notre Name either. Three and
OHO to the over Texas A and M this season.
So my handicap begins with thinking about Texas A and
M's defense. Is this defense capable? Are these stats misleading?

(22:53):
Are they vulnerable? That's the question. So let's break it down.
You know, obviously, you beat no you get a bye week.
That's a good thing, all right, You come back home,
you're feeling good about yourself. But then you have time
to come back to earth and start focusing on the
next opponent. Obviously there's an overtime lost element. There's a
revenge element for Texas anam we lost byt to this

(23:17):
team last year, so that's certainly a good focus maker.
So I like a team off of buy with focus,
and that appears to be the situation here. But you know,
there are one hundred and third in the country and
scoring defense, seventy second in rushing defense, sixty six in
total defense, right, which is a far cry from what
Auburn saw last weekn is Oklahoma, who's top ten, you know,

(23:38):
in almost all of those categories. But I'm not as
concerned as the betting markets are about the Aggies defense,
all right. The talent is there. Elco is a good
defensive mind, and just because they've had some early season struggles,
we project forward. I think this defense might be pretty good.
I know already the offense is pretty good, and I

(23:58):
know already that Auburn's offensive line has issues. When Jackson
Arnold gets sacked what nine ten times last week, it's
clearly a problem. As soon as past rush gave Auburn
all kinds of issues in that ball game. And I
think Texas A and M's stronger offensively than Oklahoma. I
know they're stronger offensively than Oklahoma is. So if I
believe in the Aggies defense and I trust their offense, well,

(24:20):
that doesn't make me excited about Auburn. And look, Auburn
has four straight losing seasons, first under Brian Harson, now
under Hugh Freeze. You know the big Week one win
over Baylor's devalued A bit Baylor just lost at home
in the Arizona State two. You know, it's a scenario
in which, yeah, Auburn's receivers could be able to take

(24:40):
advantage of one on one cover. They couldn't do it.
Against Oklahoma. But I think the Aggies are the undervalued
commodity in this matchup because of that defensive profile that
isn't pretty. Yet I think the defense from my eye
test and then the defense is better than what we've seen.
So it's Aggie's are over for this better. So I'm
waking look here, Texas A and M minus the points

(25:02):
and or over the total. That's the way I lean
for Saturday in college station.

Speaker 2 (25:10):
And if you like Aggie's and the over, maybe you'll
be interested in the Naggi's team total over. And of
course the college whole team totals pop up more on
game day, but right now I'm seeing it at twenty
nine and a half, So you're getting that key number
of thirty and thirty one working for you. I guess
you would not be opposed to that as well.

Speaker 6 (25:26):
Yeah, so part of my thought process here is that
I think Texas A and M's defense is a little
better than this tiscal profile would indicate. I wouldn't necessarily
parlay the two, but I think the over kind of
hedges you a little bit. Here, got you with the
A and M side if their defense, if this diiscal
profile is real, with their defense, then the you can
catch your overticket. I think the Aggies will get theirs,

(25:47):
but I don't know if I'm looking to go Daggie's
team total over. I rather have to get full game
over between the two teams that protects your Texas A
and m.

Speaker 2 (25:54):
BET like it. Yeah, No, I do that quite often
when I'm doing these videos. I'll mention that as well,
in case we're a little bit wrong the hedge on
the other of worse you go one in one. Let
me ask you your thoughts on these early bye weeks.
You mentioned Texas aam you know, three to zero start
big win by maybe came in a good time for
that reason. I think teams would probably prefer to have
them usually later in the season, just to get rested
and healthy. We see this with a lot of teams

(26:15):
this week though, Alabama Georgia both coming off the bye
week for that huge game I believe, and then Penn
State's coming off of bye week Organs not I believe.
If I'm not mistaken in those games, how do you
factor in these early September bye weeks for college football?
I'm sure it's like the NFL, right, it's situational, but
in general, how do you approach that?

Speaker 6 (26:33):
So it's absolutely a team by team basis. It's absolutely
a case by case basis. In the instance of Texas,
A and M. All right, when you're coming off a
huge win, all right, you know, when you go to
Notre Dame and knock off the Irish, and the Irish
obviously played for the national title last year. The Irish
beat them in college station last year. I was a
huge win for the team. And the way they did it,

(26:53):
you know, basically, you know, come from behind on the
final series of the game to get the wild victory.
You'll like a bye week in that spot, all right.
It makes the team much better prepared to deal with
their next opponent. That said, a lot of them are.
You know, late season bye weeks are probably more meaningful

(27:15):
banged up perspective in early season bye weeks. But and
most teams, many teams in college football have two bye weeks. Now,
I can bet when I first moved to Vegas, you know,
Ohio State and Michigan was played on Thanksgiving weekend and
that was the last week into college football, and then
we added one more and it goes into December. So
teams have more buys than they used to a lot

(27:35):
of teams for two buys, so it's not like and
sometimes you have coach specific track record that are worth
paying attention to. But there's lots of factors to consider
in college football coming off of buys just one of them.

Speaker 2 (27:46):
I agree. I think in this case it is a
good thing as well, after the emotional road dog win
to reset and get healthy again. That's a physical game also,
And don't forget these SEC teams a lot to play
like nothing teams in November. They play some of those
FCS opponents later in the season than they used to
and that's almost like a bye week as well. Later
in the season. Right before we let you go the
sell me segment. First time I've ever done this. So

(28:07):
does Dan pop on the screen?

Speaker 5 (28:09):
Oh yes, yes, indeed screen.

Speaker 2 (28:12):
I get to see Dan earlier than normal.

Speaker 5 (28:14):
That's the yeah, you know, you don't get to get
away from it.

Speaker 7 (28:17):
And Steve, I'm hoping, uh you can step in here
because no, Shade d Andy, he's kind of been Teddy's
punching bag here. I'm pretty sure the side that Teddy
has had to break down and we randomly do this.

Speaker 5 (28:28):
I mean, this is the first time you've ever heard it.

Speaker 7 (28:30):
I give you both the side here, and Teddy has
gone three and oh thus far. So maybe you should
say that I'm the best at picking which side Teddy
has to break down.

Speaker 2 (28:40):
No matter how good or bad, I make this argument.
If I have the losey's side, there's nothing I could
do correct.

Speaker 7 (28:45):
That's exactly it. But it's a hell of the game
that we got this week, guys, that you're going to
be selling me on the Ravens or the Chiefs, and Steve,
we will have Teddy go first here since this is
the first time that you've ever seen this, and Teddy,
you've had to break down games on the Chiefs against
the Chiefs. This time they're sitting here as a home dog.
And both of you, guys, when do we see these

(29:06):
two teams facing off under five hundred. It feels very
rare that you're talking a Ravens and Chiefs game that
both teams are under five hundred. But Teddy, Kansas City Chiefs,
you bet on him, you bet against him, you bet
right both ways.

Speaker 5 (29:20):
That you've done it.

Speaker 7 (29:21):
Now you've got to let me know why the home
dog is the side. Sell me this NFL side, Teddy.

Speaker 6 (29:27):
Sure, this is simple, all right, And in my mind,
Baltimore has this power rating.

Speaker 2 (29:32):
All right.

Speaker 6 (29:33):
I talk to guys after they lost them Monday Night Football.
I'm like, the Ravens are one and two, Like, oh no,
Baltimore is the best team in the NFL by far,
the Ravens the best team in the NFL. And this
points bread tells us that Baltimore is being priced like
the best team in the NFL, despite the fact they're
one and two to fight, to fact their defense has
been gashed, despite the fact that Kansas City has owned

(29:53):
them in the postseason. Baltimore is still priced in a
range where they shouldn't be priced at I don't think
Baltimore is a field goal better than Kansas City on
any field, and in arrowhead with the chief season on
the line. Nah, the points prints wrong and Casey is
a clear choice as home dogs plus three count.

Speaker 2 (30:14):
Me, Steve.

Speaker 7 (30:16):
Sometimes I just want to have Teddy debate himself and
break down both sides of the game. They won't play
it like like one of those like Steven a clips
where he's flip flopped and breaks down a different side.
But no, Teddy is not bringing down the side of
the Baltimore Ravens road chalk here, Steve, what are you
thinking as they're coming off that loss against Detroit at home?

Speaker 5 (30:38):
Mind? You sell me this NFL side, Steve.

Speaker 2 (30:40):
Yeah, I think most handicappers would make good attorneys because
you can sell both sides, like Teddy and I. But
I think there's no question Teddy Covers and Steve Merril
would have been the best two attorneys that didn't become
attorneys at wager talking. I think both of us at
some point probably thought about becoming attorneys back in the
eighties and nineties. So I know that for a fact
that we're both government majors. I think so a lot
of similarities. First of all, Teddy don't have, so I
disagree with through Kansas City plus three. But I'm looking

(31:02):
at the Odds Logic Live Odds screen. I'm seeing two
and a half's across the board. So I'm laying it
with the Ravens at minus two and a half eighty
nine to ten percent chance the Chiefs lose by exactly three.
That very well might be the difference in this game.
And as we talked about earlier in the episode with
the Onie the Greek, if you like Baltimore, you play
minus two and a half. Now it's just minus one
fifteen and a lot of spots minus one twenty. If

(31:22):
you like Kansas City, you wait and try to get
a plus three by Sunday. And my early initial public
data does look like the Ravens will be the more
public side. So if you like the Chiefs, you find
a plus three, hopefully late kickoff. I like the Ravens,
so I'd much rather have the minus two and a
half if you're playing a side here, because I do
feel they're the better team. And one of these teams
is going to be one in three after Sunday. Well,

(31:42):
they could both be one two and one. Not likely.
One of them is going to be one in three,
and I think it's more likely the Kansas City Chiefs.
And coming into the season, the Chiefs have been a
play against team for me, not just because they lost
the Super Bowl. We know that those teams almost half
the time don't even make the postseason the next year,
but because they look so bad in the Super Bowl.
It wasn't a fluky loss. You know, when the Eagles
and Chiefs played recently, it was a close game. Both

(32:04):
teams bounced back the next year. When the Patriots lost
a few times, it was always a close game. They
bounced back. The Chiefs got blown out. They had serious
problems on the O line, serious for problems at receiver.
They've gotten a little bit better on the O line,
not saying much. Still have a short sighted receiver corep
in my opinion. And you look at what they've done
so far. They were outplayed by the Chargers, and they
were outplayed in Week two, and then they bounced back

(32:27):
against the Giants. The Giants have scored single digits against
both the Chiefs and the Commanders. Their only breakout game
was against the Cowboys, who have stopped nobody except for
a lightning delay. That's the only thing that's helped the
Cowboy defense all season. I like Baltimore in this one,
and as long as it stays at two and a
half or less, it's a straight up win situation. Yes,
the Chiefs are probably a small favorite this summer. Now

(32:47):
it's flipped, but it still hasn't crossed that key number
of three either way. I like the Ravens to go
to two and two, and at two and a half
or less, it's basically a straight up win situation On Sunday.

Speaker 7 (32:56):
Well, Teddy, we did everything to explain the segment to
Steve than tell him it's a three sentence minimum. But
it is a solid breakdown there.

Speaker 2 (33:05):
Steve, anyway more than three. I didn't realize that.

Speaker 7 (33:08):
No, there were a lot of commas, there were a
lot of Colon's.

Speaker 4 (33:11):
It's all good.

Speaker 7 (33:12):
Yeah, you can one thing I will say to that
experts at their craft. Because Steve made sure that he
hung out with Derek Stevens over at Circa and laid
two and a half. Teddy made sure that he was
hanging out with John Murray at the super Book and
took the three. That's the real point here is step
two and a half, and I'll take.

Speaker 2 (33:29):
Three right now. I'll say a Raven's three point win.
Do I get bonus points for predicting?

Speaker 4 (33:34):
Oh?

Speaker 7 (33:34):
The mic drop, Teddy? The true mic drop is Teddy
letting us know. What do you got to promote here, Teddy?
Before we turned things over to Marco.

Speaker 6 (33:42):
Sure, we had a big weekend last weekend four and
o College football six and one. Overall, the only loser
was the freaking la Rams. But we're over it and
looking to do it again this week. I'll take a
six to one, no problem, lockloader already with one in
the NFL, two in college, and we'll be adding places
throughout the day as well. So check out my homepage
wt dot buzz backslash TCE Weekend Warrior Package forty nine

(34:06):
bucks by thirty days. Get thirty days for three dollars.
It's like you know, it's it's a really good deal there,
three dollars a day. And of course the full sea,
the full year at nine to nine bucks a month
is a great deal as well. So short term, medium term,
long term, however you want to get on board, do
it now. Visit my homepage wt dot buzz backslash.

Speaker 2 (34:25):
TC and as I said earlier, there's some great specials
there for everybody. Always great to see Teddy covers and
find out his Opening Line Report. Also is Monday Live
and like I said, archive twenty four to seven, So
if you want to see Teddy's salts on every NFL game,
check out the Opening Line Report every Monday afternoon or
Monday late morning. I guess now, I'll tell you when
you do it live eleven am Eastern I believe, before
wager Talk TV correct and.

Speaker 6 (34:46):
Late afternoon Monday at eight am my time, dude.

Speaker 2 (34:48):
Right, but what he used to make one eastern? It's
eleven am Eastern now right s morning Eastern time as.

Speaker 6 (34:52):
Well before lunchtime. So when the lines are starting to move,
we get you in front of those line moves every
Monday live right here, I'm waiting you talk to TV.

Speaker 2 (35:00):
Eleven am Eastern, eight am Pacific before lunch, during breakfast,
depending on what time zone you're in on Mondays, and
of course archive twenty four to seven here in wager
Talk TV. All right, let's get to Marco D'Angel and
we got Kelly Stewart still and Marco. I didn't really
prepare either way because I was told not to. Plus
I wasn't going to, but I kind of had a
little bit of a cheat here. At the last second.
I realized you and I are talking Raiders Bears. So

(35:22):
Dan had said it was either going to be the
Chiefs Ravens or Raiders Bears game. For that, I was
ninety nine percent sure that was the sure bet that
we were doing Ravens Chiefs. Because you and I are
talking Raiders Bears. What are your thoughts on this one?
Your Las Vegas Raiders against somebody's street. We don't have
any Chicago guys. That's hard to believe. That's a sports
That's where the points spread was a Vinte ninety years
ago was in Chicago. Little known fact. What are your

(35:44):
thoughts on this one? Bears Raiders?

Speaker 4 (35:46):
Well, the Raiders are my adopted team. I'm still the Steelers,
I know, But you know what, these two teams, they
were good to me last week because I read both
of the games right in ball these two teams. I
had the Bears as an actual client play last week,
but it wasn't because of the Bears. It was because

(36:07):
I was going against Dallas. Dallas was in a horrible
spot last week, having to go to Chicago, coming off
that thriller against the Giants, that overtime win where both
teams went up and down the field, and then look
at who Dallas has on deck. You know that they're
playing this week, They've got that game with Green Bay
and Micah Parsons on Sunday Night Football.

Speaker 5 (36:30):
So I thought it was a.

Speaker 4 (36:30):
Horrible spot for the Cowboys last week, and that's why
we were on the Bears. And then same thing with
the Raiders. Obviously being here in Vegas and doing Vegas Radio,
I had to break that game down, and I said
Raiders were in trouble.

Speaker 2 (36:46):
Last week.

Speaker 4 (36:47):
The Vegas team had to travel to the East Coast
for the second time in three weeks. They opened a
season in New England, then played Dept Monday night football game,
and if you remember, that was a header on Monday night,
so that game was even later a seven pm start
here in Vegas. And then they had to travel to

(37:08):
Washington on a short week, horrible spot for them. Washington
ran rough shot over them. But this week, different story.
I think Pete Carroll was going to be able to
get his first home win as Raiders head coach. Caleb Williams, Okay, yeah,
he had a good game last week, but let me
just remind you Russell Wilson two weeks ago against that

(37:30):
Cowboy defense had four hundred and fifty five yards passing.
So just about anybody's going to have a good game
against the Cowboys defense. It'll be a different story against
the Raiders this week. I think the Raiders get the
job done. We've seen this line sitting basically at one
and a half basically all week. No movement there, even
though Chicago looks live based on last week's results, not

(37:55):
the right side. I'm taking the Raiders and Pete Carroll
first home wint Raiders twenty seven to.

Speaker 2 (38:02):
Yeah. I was saying that earlier, Marco. I mean, the
Cowboys defense, except for the lighting delay, haven't stopped anybody
all season, right, The only thing that helped the Cowboys
defense was a one hour delay in that opener against
the Eagles and Giants single digits in their other two games.
That put up almost what thirty seven points against Dallas.
That's pretty high. And then you see with Chicago. So
we'll see if the Bears are improving under the new
coaching staff. You know, it often takes three or four

(38:24):
weeks to adjust, and we'll see if they're heading in
the right direction or not against your Las Vegas Raiders. Hey,
speaking of college football, your Penn State Nitney Lyons, I
would assume have a huge game against the Oregon Ducks,
and this is probably one of the best games of
the season. It's a rematch from last year's Big Ten
championship game on Pearl Harbor Day last December. I did

(38:45):
a standalone video on this. It's of course in my
College Football Top twenty five video as well, So I'm
very interested to hear your thoughts in this huge game Saturday,
Oregon and Penn State.

Speaker 4 (38:53):
Well, let's start with the elephant in the room right away,
and that's James Franklin. Okay, everybody knows how he has
struggled when he's faced top twenty five teams, more importantly,
top five teams. He's won in eighteen straight up against
teams ranked in the top five. If we want to
put an asterisk on it, ore Agast not in the

(39:15):
top five.

Speaker 5 (39:15):
They're six.

Speaker 4 (39:16):
Okay, so but it doesn't get much better because against
top ten he's four and twenty. But coming into this season,
and I said it at the beginning of the season,
on paper, this Penn State team, they've really bolstered the offense.
They got Drew Allard, some other pieces to strengthen the offense.

(39:36):
And that's been the knock on James Franklin. When he's
gotten into these big games. He's always had good defenses.
That's been a standard at Penn State. We know how
Penn State's been linebacker, you you know for the NFL,
no problems on that side of the football. But when
he gains into the big games, that vanilla offense of
his causes problems. Well, they went out and got peoplelast year.

(40:00):
They got a new offensive coordinator, they got some pieces
for Drew Aller. They've had a couple easy games to
start the season, They've had a bye week to have
two weeks to prepare for Oregon. What's Oregon done well.
They're just putting up a boatload of points in all
of their games, and they look very flashy getting the
points in this game. This is a very important game

(40:22):
for James Franklin. Even though he's had a great record,
even though he was basically maybe one play away from
playing for the National championship last year, there's been heat
on him because of those failures against the top teams.
They're going to take the reins off of Drew Aller
this week. I think this is going to be his
coming out party. And let's not forget this is not

(40:45):
a twelve noon Eastern start. This is a night game.
And I'll tell you should be scheduling all of your
big games at night. Get that crowd extra juiced up.
And if you've ever been to Happy Valley for a
white out, it is something special, especially when they are
at night. It'll be electric at Happy Valley. I think
they get the job done, and I'm just not sold

(41:08):
on Oregon yet. I know they've done everything asked of them,
but they really haven't played anybody, and this will be
their toughest road test since they've entered the Big ten.
Let's see how they handle this crowd at night traveling
all the way across the country to Happy Valley. That's
not an easy travel situation. I'm gonna go ahead and

(41:30):
go with James Franklin. Hopefully he doesn't blow this one
with conservative play calling, but I think they get the
job done. I'm gonna call it Penn State thirty four
twenty three.

Speaker 2 (41:42):
Woo fading the one in eighteen, which is technical, Like
you said, top five four and twenty top two. I've
forgot to mention those numbers, Marco in my videos, So
I love that you brought them up, because, look, I've
got a lot of Penn State fans and Ohio State
fancy on the East coast that I know personally, and
I've said all along, I just don't feel like states
still at that level of O high stay. We're gonna
find out a lot more about that here on Saturday Night.

(42:05):
My ten thousand game simulation favors them by four and
a half, which is a little bit more above the
line than three and a half. By the way, Oregon
was a three point favorite last year in Indianapolis in
that Big Ten title game. I believe they're ten to
zero since joining the conference. Yet Penn State did outgain
them last year five hundred and eighteen yards the nitney
the Lions had in that loss, even though they were
down twenty eighten in the second quarter. So I'm really curious.

(42:28):
I'm gonna learn a lot about both these teams, especially,
as you said, James Franklin on Saturday night, in this
huge matchup Oregon and Penn State. All Right, you always
make me hungry because you got your sandwich game of
the week and whatever else, and now you got a
wing sauce play of the week or a wing sauce
Team of the week. What are we doing with that one?

Speaker 4 (42:44):
Well, if you haven't seen this one yet, we have fun,
Steve with this one. And what we do is I
either picked on a coach, pick on a player, pick
on a team, and I give you a sauce, or
try to make recommendations so you don't make mistakes with
your choices and This one goes out to the one thousand,

(43:05):
eight hundred and seventeen people in last week's circa contest
that took the Green Bay Packers as their survivor pick.
And let's just set the stage for the day. You're
all excited. You know you're taking the Packers. They're playing
Cleveland cloud Oh did I say Clowns? No, I'm sorry,
the Cleveland Browns.

Speaker 5 (43:23):
And what could go wrong? All you gotta do is win.

Speaker 4 (43:27):
They can't get out of.

Speaker 6 (43:28):
Their own way.

Speaker 4 (43:29):
Joe Flacco is the quarterback. He's ancient. And so you
get to your favorite green Bay Packer bart, you order
your appetizer. Well, if you're a true Green Bay Packer fan,
what appetizer would that be?

Speaker 5 (43:43):
Well, you gotta order cheese curds.

Speaker 4 (43:45):
All right, So you're now on those cheese curds and
you decide you're gonna get some wings. What wings are
you gonna get? Trying to decide? Well, we're gonna go
with a twenty piece order. And there's the reason. And
if you go with a twenty piece order, you can
split two different sauces. We can go ten and ten
and that's cool. It's a long game. So our sauce
choices are sweet chili and hot buffalo. We want, you know,

(44:10):
some diversity in our life. We want that sweetness, but
we want some heat. Well, now let's start eating and
let's start enjoying the game. Green Bay's up ten to nothing. Great,
we've got him in a survivor contest. That wasn't enough
action for us. We had to have a few teasers
with green Bay. Hey, six point teaser, you bring them
down minus one and a half. They just got to

(44:32):
win the game ten nothing. Cleveland can't move the football
at all. You're living large, You're enjoying life. You just
keep mowing down those sweet chili wings because just like
Green Bay, it's sweet watching the game. And then it
gets to the fourth quarter, and then it gets to
under four minutes to play and Cleveland gets into scoring territory.

(44:56):
They've got first in goal. They shoot themselves in the
foot and have to settle for a fueld goal with
the penalty. So fine, it's still ten to three. We
got like three forty two left in the game. We're
getting the ball back. They're gonna kick it away because
they got time outs left and try to hold us all.
We need one field goal or first down, you're probably

(45:16):
good two games over. Fast forward to third and three.
Jordan Love throws his first interception of the season, and
was it hey, god awful, ugly one. There wasn't a
Green Bay receiver near it right into the hands of
the defender for Cleveland, who runs it back inside the five,

(45:37):
and they end up punching it in. It's ten to ten.

Speaker 1 (45:40):
Now.

Speaker 4 (45:41):
All of a sudden, you're nervous. You're eating what wings
are left, and most of the wings that are left
are those hot buffalo ones. Keep eating and eating.

Speaker 2 (45:50):
You're nervous.

Speaker 4 (45:51):
You're driving down the field.

Speaker 5 (45:53):
Don't worry.

Speaker 4 (45:53):
It's all gonna work out. You're gonna kick a forty
five yard field goal with twenty seconds left.

Speaker 5 (46:00):
Game.

Speaker 2 (46:00):
I'm gonna be over.

Speaker 1 (46:02):
No.

Speaker 4 (46:03):
It was chaos Sunday as far as kickers go. It's
blocked ed. Cleveland gets the ball at the green Bay
forty eight and gets a couple of yards, tries a
fifty five yard field goal at the gun, and goodbye.
Eighteen and seventeen survivor picks in circa and all of
a sudden, all of those hot wings that you ate

(46:24):
at the end of the game come back with vengeance.
Don't mix wings, and if you do mix them, keep
them in the same sauce level. Don't go sweet and hot,
or if you do alternate your wings, don't leave all
the hot ones for the end.

Speaker 5 (46:38):
It could be nasty.

Speaker 2 (46:41):
George likes his compal spicy. One of my favorite songfel Lines,
So that's kind of what it came down to there. Yeah,
you know it's funny, Marco. I thought of you last week.
I even maybe gave you a shout out in my
fad the public video because I thought that Packers Browns
game was the biggest sandwich spot of the entire NFL
season for a team. I said it in the video.
I said, do not use them in your survivor contest.

(47:03):
I would be careful with teasers. Even though it's seven
and a half, they make attempting teaser. They're coming off
the division win against the Lions, the Thursday night spotlight
game against not my Washington Commanders, and then oh, look
you here this week they're on Sunday Night football at Dallas.
So I've thought of you with the sandwich situation. So
it's ironic that it became a wing sauce play of
the week as well in the follow up Marco D'Angelo,

(47:25):
he gets it done on bet online, bet online, bet
on It. We had bet online on yesterday with Dave
Mason bol Boi is bet on it. Kelly Stewart's coming
up in a moment. You're on it as well, tell
us about that. It's what is it Wednesdays. You can
watch it twenty four to seven afterwards and then also
what you got a wager? Talk?

Speaker 4 (47:42):
Yeah, and if you like what I do with those
sandwich games, Steve where brought it back for the second year.
I do a Marco's Deli. It's out. It comes out
on Thursday night and it's been great. We've had three
episodes so far, and we give you we've had five
free plays in each of those. We're ten and five
on a season, three winning episodes in a row. They've

(48:05):
all been profitable and you can get five more plays
this week.

Speaker 2 (48:08):
Check that out.

Speaker 4 (48:09):
And if you like bet on It, we've got a
special offer with VR and myself. You can get both
of us college and Pro football through the Super Bowl
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(48:31):
That is the best offer going right now. And then,
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(48:51):
back to last year the past two seasons. I'm number
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Speaker 2 (49:03):
Yeah, just some great offers right now at wager talk
dot com. And one's gonna catch Marco in VR Yanni.
We had him on earlier on bet on It every
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speaking of bet on It, Kelly Stewart's also on the
show and she's been waiting patiently in the wings here
as we finish off this Friday wager Talk today. And
there's so many great offers right now wager Talk, I
can't list them all. Just go to the website check

(49:24):
them out. I forgot to mention yesterday nine dollars Baseball
best bets for every day for the rest of the
seat this weekend for the regular season. And I also
believe a nine dollars gold sheet special this week seven
dollars at Picks and Parlays dot net. Kelly, what else
am I missing? I know we got like ten other specials.
We'll mention them this weekend.

Speaker 8 (49:41):
On last call, I didn't come on here to talk
about specials.

Speaker 9 (49:44):
I can't talking about all the stuff that I'm doing,
I said, Steve, ask me, what's going on this weekend
on the Wager Talking YouTube channel.

Speaker 8 (49:51):
No, Wager Talk's got a ton of great stuff.

Speaker 9 (49:53):
You mentioned Picks and Parlays dot net today seven dollars Friday.
Something new they're trying out over there. Obviously, the weekend
Warrior package has been doing great over the last few weekends.
And of course, if you're looking for a longer term promotion,
you can join up with VR and Marco and their
bet on It promotion. Save yourself a few hundred bucks

(50:14):
there by getting both kaffers.

Speaker 2 (50:17):
It's good stuff. And I had Joe Vernaire on yesterday
and I said it was surreal the interviewing Joe because
he'd been the host for hundreds of shows i'd done
with him, and I don't think I've technically ever had
you on as a guest, but it's been the other
way around quite often. So we've completed the circle two
days in a row. Joe Vernari and Kelly Stewart the guest,
Steve Merril the host. I don't know, it's all right.
I'm fine either way, as I'm sure you are. We

(50:37):
Rocket and you've got some NFL games, it's fitting that
we are talking Survivor, a strategy you and I have
talked about before. You don't necessarily have to pick the
right game every week. You just have to stay off
some games and hope that the game theory kicks in
and that you get what was it eighteen hundred and
seventeen people eliminated? As Marco said, we'll talk about some
Survivor in a moment. Also, I think Dan's going to

(50:58):
jump onto the end and give us his ever picked
for the week. Some other NFL games. You've mentioned the
Raiders as a game you liked. Marco liked them as well.
What else are you looking in the NFL this week?

Speaker 9 (51:07):
Yeah, there's a couple of games that I didn't hear
you guys talk about so I apologize if they are redundant,
but I like the Colts this weekend.

Speaker 8 (51:15):
I really like what we've.

Speaker 9 (51:16):
Seen from Daniel Jones here, and more importantly, I think
this is a spot that's kind of one of those
left down spots for the Rams. Right, they were back
to back games, are on the East Coast.

Speaker 8 (51:26):
How do they put.

Speaker 9 (51:28):
That Philadelphia loss behind them? I don't really know. That
was just absolutely bananas. If you saw me and Pres
on End Zone Live, he and I had the Eagles
hand up. Did not deserve the cash that ticket In
the slightest I told Pres the entire show, stop watching
the game, it's over.

Speaker 8 (51:45):
No one cares. I even text some of my friends live.

Speaker 9 (51:48):
It was like go birds because the weekend before I
had the Chiefs and they wouldn't shut up about my
Chiefs bet So I was trying to mush it anyway
possible and it worked.

Speaker 8 (51:58):
I'll take that one going my way.

Speaker 9 (51:59):
But that is a gut wrenching loss for the Rams
to lose in that kind of horrific fashion, to blow
that type of lead again, I know that the Colts
haven't really played anybody, or that's going to be the argument, right,
Titans and Dolphins and getting lucky against my Broncos. But
I don't think that they're fraudulent by any means right now,
number two in EPA per play, number two in success rate,

(52:22):
number one and EPA per pass attempt, number one pass
success rate and number five.

Speaker 8 (52:27):
EPA rush attempt. I think this team is still underrated
and not getting enough respect.

Speaker 9 (52:33):
I looked on the odd Logic screen a little earlier.
We saw some threes coming. So hopefully you guys na
that three and a half three and a half's in
the contest will make my card.

Speaker 2 (52:42):
Yeah, it's on that key number three and a half
in a lot of spots. By the way, we're not
necessarly gonna talk about this game, but if you check
the Odds Logic Live odd screen, you'll see as about
ten minutes ago that the Atlanta Washington game is lightening up.
That's gone from two to two and a half. Atlanta
the home favored against not my Washington Commanders, and Pinnix
was announced. It's still the starter earlier this week or yesterday.
That's not why it's rising because Jayden Daniels has been

(53:04):
ruled out again this week. I don't think that was
a huge surprise, but I guess it's enough killing to
move in a half a point.

Speaker 4 (53:09):
Yeah.

Speaker 9 (53:09):
Look, you can find some stale lines, Steve, you should
be taking advantage of those in your contest.

Speaker 8 (53:14):
I certainly did. I also tease the Falcons.

Speaker 9 (53:16):
Early in the week last night with the Cardinals, with
the Steelers there on Sunday morning in Dublin, and then
the line was gone. I know VR says not to
do that, but of course I did that because, well,
you know, sometimes I like to break the rules. I
do think I have a nice advantageous number for a
Falcons team that.

Speaker 8 (53:34):
Just got their doors blown off.

Speaker 9 (53:35):
Speaking of Survivor, I was watching with karm I know,
Andy who regular hosts the show. Thought they were gonna
get a little creative and take Atlanta last week. I
was floored to see how many other people did that
in the circuit contest as well. I understand wanning to
zig when others zag, but when there is such a
massive favorite, double digit favorite, lots of touchdown favorites, I

(53:57):
don't understand taking that smaller favorite this week.

Speaker 8 (54:01):
Kind of feel the same way.

Speaker 2 (54:03):
Yeah, I mean, the biggest one on the board here
is Buffalo, New Orleans. I have a feeling that we do. Yeah,
when Dan jumpson to have a field, we'll be talking
about that as well.

Speaker 9 (54:11):
The argument is, you want to keep these teams for
as long as you can. Right, Why Josh Allen is
not wrapped in bubble wrap. We don't know what's going
to happen. We saw Joe Burrow go down right out
of the gate. Similar years, We've seen the same things
start to happen. So why would I save Cincinnati?

Speaker 4 (54:30):
Right?

Speaker 9 (54:31):
They ended up winning that game in Cleveland, but I
know a lot of people who did advance with them.

Speaker 8 (54:34):
Probably the right move.

Speaker 9 (54:36):
It's kind of tough to say, oh, I got to
save Kansas City for Christmas?

Speaker 8 (54:40):
Okay.

Speaker 9 (54:40):
Patrick Mahomes has been healthy his entire career. What if
he's not? I think having certain games where you save it. No,
I think you take the easy win with Buffalo and
you get the hell out of Dodge Well.

Speaker 2 (54:51):
And the other thing too is you got to look
at like when will you have a better opportunity even
if he stays healthy. And I'm looking at the advanced
schedule here, They're gonna be about a ten point favorite
against New England next week, and then there are eight
and a half and nine and a half point favorites
in December against the Browns and Jets. If that holds up,
we have no clue what the situation will be. There
could be less of a touchdown favorite in every game,
like seven straight games after that.

Speaker 9 (55:12):
I had Johnny Detroit and I cannot remember what year
it was. It hadn't been five or six years ago,
maybe first or second year of CIRCA. We had the
Ravens as thirteen and a half point favorites in week
seventeen and all they had to do was win the
game and guess what they lost Like they lost the
game because it did not matter to them and as

(55:34):
far as their playoff standing goes, So those things happen
as well, Like now we've added an extra week on
what if Buffalo clinches the playoffs really earlier? I mean,
this AFC East Division has not been anything to write
home about in any former fashion.

Speaker 8 (55:49):
They clinch early.

Speaker 9 (55:51):
He started seeing starters get rested, things like that. It
gets a little, it gets a little convoluted. I think
later in the season, I'm looking at teams maybe like
in Atlanta or a Tampa Bay who I think might
be fighting for that wild card spot or a great
spot into the into the playoffs. Those are the types
of teams I'm looking to save late, not these best teams. Yeah, sure,

(56:11):
we could argue, don't use Detroit this week?

Speaker 8 (56:13):
Save it.

Speaker 9 (56:13):
Sorry, I just realized I'm just hijacked Dan's entire segment.
We should just bring him in. We should all three
talk about it.

Speaker 2 (56:19):
I recommended that. I actually had a private chat with him.
I go, do you want to do this? Do you
want to jump guys?

Speaker 5 (56:25):
No, it's funny because Kelly.

Speaker 2 (56:27):
And I suggest jumping in with the three?

Speaker 6 (56:29):
Did it is?

Speaker 5 (56:30):
Steve isn't lying.

Speaker 7 (56:31):
Steve isn't lying, But no, Kelly and I we we
kind of already had this conversation off air before we
were recording bet on It because I was kicking around.
I was like, Kelly, do I just use Buffalo this
week for the exact same reason. It's like, what is
the point of saving these good teams? And I did,
you know, get a little cute. And Andy was one
of the people who did say I'm going with the Falcons,
And I said, dude, I like Carolina a lot last week.

(56:54):
That was one of my my circa picks. And and
you know, I didn't expect him win by thirty.

Speaker 5 (56:59):
But they get it. So when you get.

Speaker 7 (57:01):
Cute, when you get a little uh, you know, hey,
let's let's keep these teams alive, that's when you start
playing a dangerous game. So one that I kicked around
though even before the line move was Atlanta. I mean
it's more I want to play on a team that
got that badly beaten yet outgained the team. It wasn't
like the final score was such a liar in that

(57:23):
Falcons game. So I toyed around that, But I was like,
if Andy and I both get bounced on the Falcons
back to back weeks.

Speaker 5 (57:30):
I can never live with that. If I live with
losing to Spencer Spencer.

Speaker 7 (57:35):
Rattler on the road, Okay, you got me, Buffalo's.

Speaker 8 (57:39):
That's exactly it. And that's what I said last week
with Buffalo.

Speaker 9 (57:42):
If tuattago Ilaw plays his ass off, doesn't throw any interceptions,
which he ultimately.

Speaker 8 (57:47):
Did, and they go in and they beat their divisional.

Speaker 9 (57:49):
Arrival Thursday Night Football a double digit underdogs, I can
live with that. You know what, I could not live
with having the Falcons last week taking the Packers against
the Browns, like we all sat right here and said
those are things I can't live with myself.

Speaker 8 (58:01):
Taking the Bucks last week.

Speaker 9 (58:02):
Yes, they did end up getting the win, but I
played the other side the Jets, and I'm like, I
don't want.

Speaker 8 (58:08):
This this give and take.

Speaker 9 (58:10):
I'm gonna play the Texans in some of mine this week.
I was about to say, I don't like the Titans.
Plus the touchdown exactly. That was the other one that
I was gonna say. The only other one that jumps
off the board at you is Houston, and I can't
trust that team with a ten foot pull. Yes, Tennessee
completely embarrassed themselves last week, and they kind of embarrassed
themselves this entire season. But outside of the Broncos game,

(58:33):
Outside of the Broncos game, they have looked awful. Cam
Ward's receivers cost him that Broncos game, thankfully because I
had Broncos Week one. Outside of that, they have been atrocious.
Brian Callahan's gonna lose his.

Speaker 5 (58:43):
Job, yeah.

Speaker 7 (58:44):
And Houston offensive line issues. I mean they've had offensive
line issues.

Speaker 5 (58:49):
C J.

Speaker 7 (58:49):
Stroud's still getting by that rookie campaign. He's never looked
the same since then. So that one.

Speaker 5 (58:54):
Would be the other one. I would toy with.

Speaker 7 (58:57):
But again, it's week four now, it's just revive in
advance and then take it from that point, take some
risks later on rather than early.

Speaker 8 (59:04):
So do you do you want?

Speaker 9 (59:07):
I know we're up against it time wise, but do
you want to save the Lions for Thanksgiving or Christmas?

Speaker 8 (59:13):
Personally?

Speaker 5 (59:14):
I don't.

Speaker 8 (59:15):
I don't. You don't I don't because I'm gonna tell
you why.

Speaker 9 (59:18):
I don't want to take them on the road versus
the Vikings on Christmas Day.

Speaker 8 (59:23):
I don't. I think.

Speaker 9 (59:25):
I think Kevin O'Connell is an excellent coach. I don't
think it doesn't matter who's the quarterback for that team.
And let's not forget just a few short years ago,
the Packers ruined my Thanksgiving on my birthday because we's
the Lions and the Packers go in and upset the Lions.
I'm like, no, I want no part of that. I'm
gonna go Birds for Thanksgiving.

Speaker 8 (59:45):
I'm saving That's what I was about to say. And
they won't ruin your Thanksgiving because that's the stupid.

Speaker 7 (59:50):
Amazon Prime Friday game, So your Thanksgiving is safe.

Speaker 5 (59:53):
The Birds are the are the pick on.

Speaker 7 (59:58):
Use Friday for your Thanksgiving technically is the Thanksgiving game
slate as well.

Speaker 9 (01:00:03):
Yeah, so that's my point, like now saying that, like
let's hope knock on wood, all of the all of
the Eagles players are fully healthy in there, there's I'm
gonna have a couple other options that are still available
just in case.

Speaker 8 (01:00:16):
But the Lions is not one of the teams that
I want to keep.

Speaker 9 (01:00:19):
Maybe Baltimore, maybe I keep Baltimore, maybe I keep Philly.
I know what I'm gonna use the Packers, So I'm
gonna keep that in my side pocket. But that being said,
like I don't want one of these really like tough
divisional matchups that we know you're gonna get the best.

Speaker 8 (01:00:33):
From the underdog.

Speaker 2 (01:00:34):
Yeah, right now, the projected to be about a two
and a half point favorite in both the Thanksgiving and
Christmas games against the Packers and Vikings, So you're talking
about fifty five fifty chance the best to win either one.

Speaker 8 (01:00:45):
I think you can use the Lions this week.

Speaker 9 (01:00:47):
We're gonna go Chris and I use the Lions a
couple of weeks ago, because we already knew weren't going
to save them for Thanksgiving. In Circa and the five
km playing a little more conservative. I know a lot
of people think, oh, you just use Texans, it's the
only week you can use them.

Speaker 8 (01:00:58):
I'm using Lions over there.

Speaker 9 (01:01:00):
I'm gonna do probably double Texans in Circa because I
do think Circa, because the pool is so much bigger,
you you really do have to take some more risks
in the five k. We're down to less than ninety people,
So I'm gonna be play a little bit more conservative
and find other spots to take risks.

Speaker 8 (01:01:16):
This week isn't one of them.

Speaker 2 (01:01:17):
Yeah, they're only projected, but Houston's only projected to be
more than a four point favorite. There could be a
four and a half point favorite twice the rest of
the season and a dog or less than that every
other game. So this is your chance to use Houston.
And if you took Buffalo less Thursday night, you might
actually be in a good spot this week because you'll
have to kind of take Houston or Detroit. And if

(01:01:37):
you get that Buffalo upset, it's gonna be like christ, Yeah, that.

Speaker 9 (01:01:40):
Will be absolutely bananas. That will be one of the
bigger upsets we've seen in the last ten years.

Speaker 2 (01:01:46):
Yeah, fifteen point hope. The one thing I'll point out
real quick too, is I mean, I know, technically mathematically
and the money lines are maybe a little skewed less,
but like a seven point road favorite should be the
same as a seven point home favorite. But with Survivor,
since we're talking about straight up wins and not covers, allways,
hesitant to take those road favorites as opposed to a
home team, and we saw that with the Packers last time.

Speaker 9 (01:02:04):
I would much rather take a home divisional favorite than
ever take a team on the road.

Speaker 2 (01:02:11):
Correct.

Speaker 9 (01:02:12):
Every time I've ever lost in Survivor, it's been Minus Detroit,
ruining my birthday. It has been an international game where
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers were up double
digits over the New York Giants lost. It was last
year the team decided, Okay, we're gonna take the Saints
against the Panthers, and I thought, I hate this, I
hate this, I hate this. So not only was a

(01:02:33):
road favorite road favorite in the division, they lose like
those are the types of spots where I feel like
you're setting yourself up for failure. You may advance, but
eventually that stupid divisional home underdog is going to get you.
So yes, there are some spots where you can use
a road favorite. Yes, there's some spots where you can
use a divisional home favorite, but I think using it's

(01:02:53):
like a Falcons last week double whammy. That road divisional
favorite is gonna get you every time.

Speaker 4 (01:02:59):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:02:59):
I just say you get more outline results with road
teams like that Packer Brown's game last week, the home
teams find a way to will out the win by
the way. Next week, Detroit's projected to be over a
touchdown favorite at Cincinnati, and then in late November before
the Thanksgiving A game, they were gonna be about touchdown
home favorite and more against the Giants. Those are your
other only other two spots where you could probably use them.
So if you haven't used Detroit yet, i'd say Detroit,

(01:03:21):
Houston or Buffalo. Kind of all in agreement. Dan and
I are doing NFL videos after this, so I know
we're fine. I don't want to keep Kelly.

Speaker 4 (01:03:27):
You Oh no no.

Speaker 7 (01:03:29):
And partially the reason why I love doing the Survivor
segment is because of this so bad that it's good
graphic that we have of the boys.

Speaker 5 (01:03:37):
Major talk today, I will survive.

Speaker 7 (01:03:39):
This is Andy's Gloria Gainer unfortunately, and yeah, you'll never
unsee this, Steve. But unfortunately Andy did not survive last week.
But he bought us like forty entries or something like
that into the Bed Online Survivor contest, so one of
his entries is still alive. So technically Andy will still survive.

(01:04:00):
And now I got to share that horribly beautiful.

Speaker 2 (01:04:03):
Gratic one thing. I'll leave it on this segment. I
want to ask Kelly about like one other game on
the way out. But you know, Kelly, also, you can
use every team once. I think the one thing that
gets really overlooked in Survivors is that you can play
against the same team multiple times. And that's another thing.
Played against the Saints this week, their projecting will probably
be the worst team in the NAT.

Speaker 9 (01:04:20):
You can play against the Jets, you can play against
the Giants, I mean Titans.

Speaker 8 (01:04:25):
I have a whole list.

Speaker 9 (01:04:26):
Let me pull it up really quick. These are the
teams that I literally have on my list.

Speaker 6 (01:04:30):
Now.

Speaker 2 (01:04:30):
It's easier so than done, because but if you can
project who's gonna be that three or four win team preseason, like,
you can almost really do well in Survivors all long.

Speaker 9 (01:04:39):
I mean, those teams are going to win games. You've
got to find spots within that. But those are the
teams I'm looking about against every single week. Remember in
the five K at Westcate, you only have to play
eighteen teams. In Circle, you only have to play twenty teams.

Speaker 8 (01:04:51):
I'm in some where we.

Speaker 9 (01:04:53):
Have a bunch of double pick weeks, so that's where
those strategies then have to adjust those double pick weeks,
Like this is one of my first double pick week
in one of my other leagues, and they've seen almost
nobody taken out yet I'm a little nervous because I
have Detroit and the Texans right Like, if one of
those teams loses, I'm now out of that. Whereas one
of those teams loses, I'm only out of half of

(01:05:14):
my survivor pools here headed into week five?

Speaker 2 (01:05:17):
How long do those go? I mean, even with seven
and ten point favorites this week, you're probably just barely
above fifty five percent or so. I'm doing the quick
math in my head that they both went straight up.

Speaker 8 (01:05:25):
Yeah, it's tough. It's tough.

Speaker 9 (01:05:27):
Those double pick weeks will get you some of the
spots I'm on in Splash, and that's why John Murray
and I created the mini Losers one because then you
can only play against the Saints one time, you.

Speaker 8 (01:05:37):
Can only play again.

Speaker 9 (01:05:38):
Yeah, so I like that because then there's actual strategy.
Of course, we're gonna use the Saints this week across
the board. Bill's just gonna get us an easy win.
Last week we use the Dolphins against the Bills. So
there are spots where you can just keep playing against
the bad team playing the good team. So that's the
inverse of it. But man, it's uh, it's different because
of course last week he told me, how how do

(01:06:00):
you not take Seattle? You woosted out on Seattle?

Speaker 8 (01:06:02):
I did. I like the Saints.

Speaker 9 (01:06:05):
I thought, hey, Spencer Rattler, maybe, just maybe he's gonna.

Speaker 8 (01:06:08):
Get his receivers to make some of these sketches.

Speaker 9 (01:06:10):
No, it was over before it started, So congratulations to
everybody used Seattle there. After watching them last night, there
maybe some other spots I can use Seattle though, now oh.

Speaker 2 (01:06:18):
Yeah no, no, I said him. I fade the public
video last week. It was one of the outlier games
with the Saints were a little public. But I thought
it was also a decent setup for him, and I said,
do not use the packers, do not use the Seahawks.
One of these tour is going to go down, and
one of them did. But there again, if you use
something else and you cash with Buffalo Thursday night, you've
eliminated a good amount of people with that packer over
eighteen hundred eliminated. With doing nothing, you could just sit

(01:06:39):
back and kind of pray or hope for some good
luck from the betting gods. Hey, one game we haven't
touched on. I want to get on the way ou
because I know you have an opinion on it. Jacksonville,
San Francisco, four h five Eastern Sunday afternoon, sitting on
that key number of three. If you like the Niners,
you laid the three. It's three minus one twenty. South
Point has three Flato were public books. Jacksonville has moved.

(01:07:00):
It has moved to three and a half minus money
on Jacksonvillet Pinnacle maybe the sharpest book in the world.
So I don't know a little bit of a sharp
square divide maybe right now if you're using south Point
and Pinnacle, which I like to look at, you've got
the best number on San fran At south Point, and
you've gotten a three and a half showing now with
Jacksonville Pinnacle. So what are your thoughts on this one?

Speaker 8 (01:07:18):
That's interesting.

Speaker 9 (01:07:18):
I was just looking to see if John Murray gave
me Jacksonville last night on his list.

Speaker 8 (01:07:24):
He did not Atlanta Detroit Flat.

Speaker 2 (01:07:26):
They're threezhwaight because they're doing away juice, I think right now.
So they're yeah, all shore. I guess there's a little
bit of a sharp lean offshore with san Fray. But
I have a feld. I know you're a dog lover.
I have a feel, and you might disagree a little bit.

Speaker 1 (01:07:37):
Yeah.

Speaker 9 (01:07:37):
Look, I can understand why everybody wants to back san
fran right, this is the reality.

Speaker 8 (01:07:43):
You've got rock Party.

Speaker 9 (01:07:45):
Coming back in for Mac Jones, You've got the injured
player theory with Nick Bosa.

Speaker 8 (01:07:48):
A lot of people think this defense is gonna step up.

Speaker 9 (01:07:51):
I think this Jags g This Jag team should absolutely
be undefeated. That Bengals game was painful, and Marco talked
about it on Beat on it this was his barking dog,
and I said, hey, Marco, I agree with you here.
I like it as well. That was just kind of
one of those wonky games that the end result did
not go our way. I think that We're getting a
lot of overvalued here for a hurt rock party coming

(01:08:13):
back into play when the reality is he's still missing
his security blanket in George Kittle.

Speaker 8 (01:08:19):
That's not a good thing.

Speaker 9 (01:08:20):
And you have to think about this sometimes when you
take the guy away who's been wanting been the guy
making the plays, bringing back in your star quarterback, can
we call him a star?

Speaker 8 (01:08:29):
Maybe?

Speaker 9 (01:08:30):
Maybe not it sometimes it kind of screws with the
offense a little bit. I like Trevor Lawrence coming in
here and getting the win at in San Francisco.

Speaker 8 (01:08:38):
I think San Francisco was the team.

Speaker 9 (01:08:40):
I thought twenty to one had a lot of value
to win the Super Bowl. But again I think both
these teams should be three and zero. Jaguars better than advertised.

Speaker 2 (01:08:49):
Yeah, both these teams. I mean the Niners are averaging
three yards to carry, Jags are averaging less than six
yards of pass. I mean we're going to find out
a lot about both these teams on Sunday afternoon on
that list. Also, so you had the Chiefs and I
took opposite sides on that we were forced to, but
I thought we both made decent arguments. You're the tiebreaker.
You like Casey, but here again two and a half
juiced Baltimore. If you like Casey, I would wait. I

(01:09:11):
think some threes might show my kickoff on Sunday.

Speaker 8 (01:09:13):
Of course they are.

Speaker 9 (01:09:15):
Has a good team, right, we have public perceptions Kansas
City good, this team bad. Right, So Kansas City has
done what Travis Kelce cost him the game against Philly.
They lost Week one in Brazil, and well, Russell Wilson
basically gifted them that game last Sunday night. The Chiefs

(01:09:35):
are not any good, right? What is going on with
this Ravens defense? They are beyond exploitable. And I get
accused of being a Chiefs hater all the time, but
Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, is generally going to make
my list. I think Kansas City in a teaser spot
is excellent alrity tease them. As I mentioned with the Steelers,
the Falcons, the Cardinals and the Broncos earlier in the week.

(01:09:58):
I think Kansas City gets this when this Ravens defense
is going to get exposed. Unless Lamar Jackson has the
best game of the season. I just don't see this
Baltimore team having the cohones to go into Kansas City
and get the win. They have not showed me any
grit in whether that second half versus Buffalo, whether in

(01:10:19):
that second half versus Detroit.

Speaker 8 (01:10:21):
There is something missing this team.

Speaker 9 (01:10:23):
Our good friend Aaron Epstein went on an absolute tear
on TikTok about it. Go over there and check it out,
because she explains it so much better. As a Ravens fan,
this team is very frustrating. I don't trust him as
a road favorite.

Speaker 2 (01:10:35):
Yeah, Ariel's dial then with the Ravens. Was her grandfather
was a Ravens fan, or as a Baltimore person. I
think it's someone that's the connection for the New Yorker,
the Syracuse Crab Aaron Epstein Baltimore raven But she yes,
she follows them closely. And yeah, we'll find out a lot.
One of these teams, most likely, I said, could be one,
two and one. But ninety nine percent chance one of
these teams will be one in three after Sunday. By

(01:10:56):
the way, Kohona is five to one odds that would
be said today. I don't know how to spell.

Speaker 8 (01:11:00):
It should have made it way higher than that.

Speaker 2 (01:11:02):
Yeah, it probably is a lot higher. But once again,
they the futures don't let you take the other side.
That's why futures are bad bets, because there was no
minus one thousand on the no and we would have
taken advantage of that bet anyway. But I don't know
how to spell kahonas, but I've got them. I've got
a pair. Hey, look on that list, you got Raiders.
And we talked a couple of Marco mentioned the Raiders
as well, so you agree there. And then Teddy actually

(01:11:24):
liked the Bucks. I see you got the Bucks, so
quick thoughts on those.

Speaker 8 (01:11:27):
Yeah, the Raiders, Uh, the Raiders. Right.

Speaker 9 (01:11:30):
We saw this Bears team last week, right, everybody said
the line was fishy, no one could make sense of it,
and all of a sudden they win thirty one to fourteen.
But if you actually go back and you remember at
the end of the second quarter the game was tied
Ceedee Lamb hurt, Dak Prescott.

Speaker 8 (01:11:48):
Still thirty one to forty.

Speaker 9 (01:11:50):
Gravante Williams still able to get it going on the ground,
but that Dallas defense does what they do and they
fell apart. I think Smith, if he can not turn
over the ball, he did very well not doing that
in his loss last week nineteen to twenty nine. Two
hundred and eighty nine yards, three touchdowns. I think that
that Raiders team can get the win at home Bears

(01:12:13):
four and fourteen in September. Please do not overreact to
one good game by Caleb Williams, and the last one
is the Bucks against the Birds. I mentioned how I
was saving them for Survivor later on. This is an
interesting matchup, right. I've seen three of these games since
I've lived in Florida, and it's always nuts. Birds fans

(01:12:36):
come down here, can't behave themselves act like jerks. At
least the last playoff game they got really stifles and
that was a fun one. I had a considerable amount
of money on the Bucks there because it was one
of those situational spots where you want.

Speaker 8 (01:12:50):
To take this team. Now. I have questions about the
three and zero Bucks. Right.

Speaker 9 (01:12:55):
Every single game they've been in has been down to
the wire, whether it's a last minute field goal last
week versus the Jets, whether it was a missed field
goal by the Falcons, whether it was the Texans just
being Swiss Cheese on defense.

Speaker 8 (01:13:09):
But this is the spot you want.

Speaker 9 (01:13:10):
To take him here at home, Raymond James Stadium is
going to be absolutely hot, on fire, and I don't
mean the audience. It's going to be a hot weekend
in Tampa. The field projections are talking one hundred and.

Speaker 8 (01:13:22):
Three with humidity. So keep in mind.

Speaker 9 (01:13:24):
There we talked about the Colts and how the Rams
come back from that wonky loss. How does Philadelphia respond
after basically being gifted win number three on a silver
platter by the gambling guys. I think this line is
just a touch too high. I liked the Bucks plus
three and a half at.

Speaker 2 (01:13:42):
Home making history here on wager Talk TV. I think
I've officially run the longest wager Talk today ever. We're
like an hour sixteen in this our hour fourteen in
We started like two minutes lake cause I was coming
in hot. But the other thing that's made history is
this new show in Zone Live. Yeah Raise, did we
hit over ten k yet? And then we got like
ninety nine under that?

Speaker 9 (01:14:02):
It was pretty close on Sunday it was pretty fun.
I actually will admit I was wrong. I thought no
one's gonna watch the show. Why would you want to
watch a bunch of people watch?

Speaker 2 (01:14:10):
Do you have to come on? I didn't pencil it
in my schedule, and.

Speaker 9 (01:14:13):
Then then I did last week, and I was supposed
to leave it halftime, and I ended up saying for
the whole Dame. Basically, I just made fun of Pres
the whole time. It was wonderful, had a great time
about his crappy internet and him being on a delay,
and he was coming in giving us some live lines.
Teddy coming in and giving you guys some live bets.
Those are great. Mad Russian ended up pushing his live bet.
He gave Pres Eagles minus seven. I'm sorry, Eagles plus

(01:14:38):
seven live or ram supposed to someone I don't remember.
It was hilarious. The comments Harry was absolutely electric. I'm
excited again for this Sunday. I do have to head
up to my dad, so I probably will not pop
on until the second half. We'll see what's going on.
But yeah, Sunday, as soon as the game skick off.
Right here on the way to talk to YouTube channel,
you guys can also hang out. Ariel is gonna be

(01:14:58):
hosting last call on Sunday, and then followed up with
VR in his steam room.

Speaker 8 (01:15:04):
It's gonna be just an electric Sunday. On the way
you're talking YouTube channel.

Speaker 2 (01:15:08):
Yeah, once again, if you click subscribe, we have over
two hundred and twenty thousand subscribers. Now I think we
picked up like over six k in the last month,
which is insane. Thank you to everybody. Just double check
if you haven't clicked to click it, but consider clicking
that bell as well, because you'll get an instant alert
when these shows go live throughout the weekend. When my
fade the public video goes up this weekend and you'll
never miss out here on wager Talk TV. Kelly great

(01:15:31):
seeing you. Are you doing Last Call tomorrow on Saturday?

Speaker 4 (01:15:34):
Or is so?

Speaker 9 (01:15:35):
I will be doing Last Call tomorrow on Saturday, so
you guys can catch me. It's gonna be me Ralph
Michaels Art to Caesar from the Westgate Superbook, and of
course Yanni the Greek giving us all of that last
minute steam. And then Sunday you gotta look and see
who's on the Sunday schedule. I make this schedule. You'd
think that I would have it memorized by this point
in time. Spreadsheet John, Yeah, I have a spreadpee girl.

(01:15:56):
If we didn't know that, if we've learned anything in
the last year that I'm a gee girl. Sunday it's
going to be Ralph.

Speaker 8 (01:16:03):
No excuse me.

Speaker 9 (01:16:04):
It's going to be VR, It's going to be John
Murray from the Westgate Super Book, Carmin and Bianco gonna
come on and talk some NFL with Ariel as well,
So it should be a fun filled Sunday, and then
of course Monday Night Football, Joe Madden's gonna be hosting
Last Call there before the Monday Night football game.

Speaker 2 (01:16:19):
Well, if you need to fill at the very end tomorrow,
let me know. I'm off Sunday. I won't be able
to jump on End Zone Live again. I thought maybe
I was going to make a segment, but I won't
be able to do it Sunday either. But if you
need someone late tomorrow Saturday to close out or to
put a record show a last Call over noon eastern kickoff,
so let me know.

Speaker 9 (01:16:35):
No, I need that last ten minute buffer with you,
last minute bets that may or may not have have
been given to me by the Westgate Super Book. Steve,
We'll keep you in mind. We'll see how that goes.
I'll send you a text tomorrow morning.

Speaker 2 (01:16:50):
I'm good. I think, I think when it all added up,
I've done about fifteen sixteen free play videos. Dan Alexander
and I are knocking out the NFL videos right after
this Friday afternoon. Thank you to Kelly's Stewart, Marco DiAngelo, Janni,
the Greek Teddy covers. I feel like we had half
a wager Talk on today, Dan Alexander jumping in and
as I mentioned, do the NFL videos this afternoon, including
Fade the Public. He'll be up later tonight and Saturday,

(01:17:11):
so click the bill when you subscribe here for instant alerts.
All the college football content is up for the week,
including my Top twenty five video which went up this morning.
Six games broken down in that Top twenty seven video
to be exact. And then, of course you can get
my personal best bets at wager talk dot com Steve Merril,
including today's free play. Go check out the bonus free
play that I post every day on my page Steve

(01:17:32):
merrillwager talk dot com. Get there quicker with shortcut wt
dot buzz slash sm and while you're there, whether you're
on my page or anybody else is at wager talk,
check out all the special offers too many to name here.
We've got one month, one year specials, even the Weekend
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(01:17:55):
Alexander for producing and running overtime here, and stay tuned
to wager Talk TV because you know there's more free
play videos coming up next

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