WagerTalk Today | Free Best Bets and Expert Sports Picks | NFL and College Football Picks | 10/10/24
October 10, 2024 • 46 mins
On Thursday's edition of WagerTalk Today, Marco D'Angelo and Steve Merril join Prez and Teddy to give NFL predictions for Week 6 and college football picks for Week7!
Introduction 00:00
Marco: CFB Week 7 - Iowa St at WVU 2:40
Marco: NFL Week 6 - Jacksonville vs Chicago 9:05
What Bettors Learned 19:02
Merril: MLB - Yankees at Royals 26:33
Merril: CFB - Penn State at USC 30:26
Teddy's BGB: Cardinals vs Packers 36:37
Prez + Teddy on NFL Week 6 42:45
Lions vs Cowboys 43:00
Introduction 00:00
Marco: CFB Week 7 - Iowa St at WVU 2:40
Marco: NFL Week 6 - Jacksonville vs Chicago 9:05
What Bettors Learned 19:02
Merril: MLB - Yankees at Royals 26:33
Merril: CFB - Penn State at USC 30:26
Teddy's BGB: Cardinals vs Packers 36:37
Prez + Teddy on NFL Week 6 42:45
Lions vs Cowboys 43:00
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome the wage you talk today everyone, and what a
freaking show we got lined up for you. Marco DiAngelo.
Right off the bat, he's gonna talk Iowa State versus
West Virginia, and he'll take a look at the London
England NFL game, Jacksonville playing the Bears Steve Merrill. After that,
he's gonna look at the Yankees at Royal's great game
(00:23):
last night, and he's gonna take apart Penn State at USC.
There will be no third guest today. Instead, Teddy and
I will be talking some NFL. If you guys want
to want a game, I want a game that. If
you guys want to pick the games, go ahead, Eddy
(00:44):
and I will take your advice. Teddy covers, what's your
big game breakdown?
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Big game breakdown?
Speaker 3 (00:50):
This is one you don't have to pick if you're
trying to suggest games for us to talk about today
on the show.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
I'm gonna break.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Down the Packers and the Cardinals Arizona at Green Bay
NFL game breakdown, And.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Of course we'll also talk the Robert Salah firing for
the New York Jets and what letters learned.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
Yeah, and you know what, guys, super surprised I'm gonna
have a follow up question on Teddy's big game breakdown. Oh, yes,
I already know what it is. I don't even know
what you're gonna say, but I already have my follow
up question prepared. Puck time is up everyone, eleven am Eastern.
We taped, don't you worry? Teddy? We taped eleven am Eastern.
(01:28):
I'm on with Andrew McGinnis. Make sure to check that out.
What do you want to say? What do you want
to say? Gollum?
Speaker 3 (01:35):
It's not possible for you to have a follow up
question yet because you haven't listened to any of my analysis.
So if you have a follow up question before even start,
then you're not doing your job.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
Oh hot wheels trademark the term challenge accepted. Challenge accepted.
Marco D'Angelo joining us. Marco, God, you're so good man.
How are you so damn good?
Speaker 4 (02:01):
Just clean living, press clean living.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
Do edibles every night? Marco?
Speaker 2 (02:07):
No, I don't I know.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
I just I wanted to make or I do I do.
I'm an edible art anyway, my brother, let's go. Iowa
State is playing West Virginia minus three for state. Where
are we going here?
Speaker 4 (02:26):
Yeah, we're looking at this one, guys in you know,
West Virginia rolled big last week. I mean, they just
absolutely trounced Oklahoma State. But let's be honest. That Oklahoma
State defense has been getting shredded by everybody. Oklahoma State
can't stop the run, and West Virginia ran the football.
You ready for this sixty five times? This isn't you
(02:49):
know air Force or Navy or Army. They ran it
sixty five times for three hundred and eighty nine yards.
That's not gonna happen this week against this Iowa State defense.
This is a defense that has played well all season long,
and I look for them to dominate this game. Shut
(03:09):
down that West Virginia offense. And I got a note
as well. Last week, West Virginia had the luxury of
a bye week before they played Oklahoma State in two
weeks to prepare for a team, especially a team that
is in disarray like Oklahoma State is. That was a
benefit that they don't have this week. I'm looking at
(03:31):
this Iowa State offense and I know that in the
past people look at Iowa State and say, you know,
they struggle to score points. This offense is much better
than it has been. They have run for two hundred
and thirty five yards or more in three straight games.
And when you can run the football, it opens everything
else up. And if I look at this West Virginia defense,
(03:54):
the running game wasn't tested last week because Oklahoma State
was so far behind. They didn't I couldn't run the football.
But you go two weeks prior to that, before they
went into Dubai, Kansas ran for two hundred and forty
eight yards against them. I think that sets up Iowa
State here. When they can run the football, it'll set
up a lot of stuff on play action. I'll ride
(04:17):
that defense. I've got a number here at three that
basically we just need to win the ball game. I'll
go ahead and go with that and that Iowa State defense.
I always like taking the better defense. Four point four
yards per play they're allowing, while West Virginia is allowing
six point one yards per play.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
So I gotta ask you about full season stats right now,
because when we look at these two teams, I see
two very different strength to schedules. You know, West Virginia
has already played Oklahoma State, Kansas, Pitt Penn State, Iowa State, well,
they had Baylor at Arkansas State, North Dakota.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
You know they've been.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
Able to fatten up their statistical profile based on some
lesser foes.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Does that concern you?
Speaker 3 (05:03):
Do you look at strength to schedule when it comes
to betting October college football?
Speaker 2 (05:07):
And if so, how do you factor that in?
Speaker 4 (05:10):
Obviously, Teddy, you got to look at the December stats.
They're the most deceiving because generally some teams, like you said,
will have a cupcake on their schedule in September. Where
West Virginia their strength to schedule really is dominated by
the fact that they played Penn State that first game
out of the season. In Penn State coming into the
season was ranked as high as they were. That's going
(05:33):
to sway their strength to schedule. But I got to
look at what they did against those teams. They gave
up a lot of points when they faced better quality foes.
Penn State scored a lot of points against them, Pitts
scored a lot of points against them, and Kansas scored
points against them as well. I think Iowa State will
(05:53):
score against them, and I think Iowa State, next to
the Penn State game, this is the best defense they face, Teddy,
So they got to go with the schedule that's in
front of them. We'll see now where those stats even
out is they get into the meat of conference schedule.
But you are right, don't rely solely on early season
(06:15):
stats when they got those September skewed numbers in there.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Margoty Angelo, everybody, guys, Marco absolutely rolling. I mean, this
is like ad nauseum. Every bloody week. All we talk
about is our great Marco is twenty six and eleven
in the WNBA this season, made his one hundred dollars
better is three two and fifteen dollars. Kudos to you,
(06:41):
my friend also on a ten and four run in
his four and five percent place. And guys, we got
a really interesting promo going today. It's the fill your
Cart promotion. Basically, anything you put in your cart today,
if you use the promo code cart ten c A
RT ten, you get ten percent off of anything in
(07:01):
that chart. Marco D'Angelo, what do you have going with
the clients tonight?
Speaker 4 (07:08):
Well, I had you mention that WNBA record because I
do have a big play tonight in Game one of
the WNBA Finals. I have a four percent plate going tonight,
and pres, I know a lot of people you say WNBA.
They don't want to they don't like it. They don't
want to watch it. You know what, you don't have
to watch it. You don't have to like it. You
just gotta want to make money. Marco, even doing.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
Marco, it's so strange, Like, you know, I would say
that ninety percent of the betters that we have have
stock some stock. How do they watch that all day?
Like what do they do? Do they go to the
company where they bought the stock, sit in the lobby
(07:53):
and check out who walks up and down? Like why
do you have to watch or like sports to make money?
Surely you do not watch or like stocks. They don't
do anything.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
I'm tell our audience, I don't stop.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
Yeah, we got some young we got some young I'd
like to give our audience a lot of credit. Teddy,
I know, I know, I'll tell you flat out. I mean,
we've got some very very wise shrewd audience members. And
speaking of those wide shrewd audience members, hit that like
button plays. Let's go Teddy, Marco. Let's move on to
(08:35):
the next game to talk about. And this is the
Jacksonville Chicago game. Super interesting game year because Chicago has
gotten on a little bit of a role. But they
came into the season expecting not much, and Jacksonville really
came into the season expecting a playoff birth now they
are one and three. They finally won a game one
and four. I like Jacksonville here, Marco. My gut feel is,
(09:00):
this is a team that has traveled to London a
million times. I think they won last week. They get
their act together. I like Jacksonville. Where are you going?
Speaker 4 (09:09):
Well, I'm going to agree with you present. I like
Jacksonville here as well. And Jacksonville showed me something last
week gutting out a win thirty seven thirty four. And
the reason I say that they showed me something there
obviously we all saw that Monday night football game against
Buffalo and they just absolutely got demolished and looked like
(09:29):
a team that quit in the second half. They lost
that game by thirty seven points. They come back the
next week. Give them credit. And I was on Jacksonville
when they played Houston because it was a division game.
They could have got themselves back in the race with
a win against Houston that day, and they led that
game the entire way until Houston rallied in the final
drive and got the win. A team that was winless
(09:53):
and gave such an effort like that and came up
short against the division rival that pretty much put them
at zero to four and behind the eight ball for
the season, could have very easily quit on the season,
and they didn't. They come back and got a win
last week. And it doesn't matter if it was an
ugly win or not. A win is a win, and
that's what can propel a team onto a streak. Now,
(10:14):
they go to London, Like you said, you know, we
never know how teams are going to react going to London.
When they do it, you know that they're not accustomed
to it. If there's any team that's accustomed to it,
it's Jacksonville because they play at least one game over
there every year, and some years they've played too like
they're going to be doing again this year. They'll be
playing back to back weeks there, so they know the routine.
(10:36):
Now let's look at Chicago and you said, hell, they
put together, you know, a little win streak. They won
two games in a row. Let's pump the brakes. Two
weeks ago they beat the Rams. I had Chicago in
that game because the Rams were coming off an upset
of the forty nine ers the week before, and the
Rams were decimated with injuries. Chicago got to win. Okay, great,
(10:59):
but you know there's an asterisk to that win because
of the condition in a situation with the Rams. Then
last week they beat up on a Carolina team. We
know that this Carolina team has its faults, and so
I'm not as impressed with that. Plus the fact those
two wins, Chicago was plus five in a turnover margin,
five and nothing in those two games on turnovers. You're
(11:21):
supposed to win games when you have those kind of turnovers.
I think the wrong team is favored here. You've got
a Chicago team favorite on the road. I think you know.
I just I can't buy that. And then here's a
stat for you on Caro on Chicago since twenty twenty two.
Following a game where Chicago has scored thirty points or more,
(11:44):
they row and six against the spread. Now, I know
Teddy's gonna come back and say, yeah, but that's not
with Caleb Williams. Well it's not. But until he shows
me he can do it, I'm still gonna look at
that stat. Until he does it, I just don't trust
him on the road, and I said about that clean
two games at home five and zero with the turnovers.
(12:05):
His last two road games, the Bears did have five turnovers.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
So I'm not going to ask you about that.
Speaker 3 (12:13):
I'm actually going to ask you about the matchup of
the Jaguars offense, sorry, the Jaguars defensive line versus the
Bears offensive line and vice versa. Last week, Chicago pressured
Andy Dalton on twenty of his forty one dropbacks. That's
their highest pressure rate in the game since ESPN began
tracking the metric in two thousand and nine. Their defensive
(12:35):
line blew up the line of scrimmage again and again
in that ball game. Last week, the Jags faced Indy
and in that game, Trevor Lawrence had a two point
nine percent pressure rate that was the lowest of his career.
Of course, the Colts were playing without three of their
four starters on the defensive line, and they had no
pass rush whatsoever, and Trevor Lawrence had all day to
(12:57):
throw the football and lo and behold his first three
hundred yard game of the season and Jacksonville's first win
of the season and Jacksonville's first offensive good performance of
the season. Now We're looking at a Jags team that,
in theory is going to face a real pass rush.
Does that worry you?
Speaker 1 (13:17):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (13:17):
Obviously having the pass rush there, But you know, again,
the team that they faced last week, Carolina, you know
their offensive line is not that good. In two, you
have Andy Dalton back there. Okay, Andy Dalton is not
a mobile quarterback, especially at this stage of his career.
Trevor Lawd's although he's not, you know, a runner, you know,
(13:39):
like Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, he is definitely more
mobile than Andy Dalton. So I think that will be negated.
It's still You're just you're asking a team with a
rookie quarterback in my opinion, to do something across the
pond that I just they have to show me they
can do that. This is a young team laying points
(14:01):
on the road, and I know technically this is a
home game for Chicago, but they're not. It's sold your field.
I just I can't buy it, Teddy. I will tell
you this much, and it will probably be a client
play as well. Not only do I like Jacksonville, but
because of this total and because we have seen a
tendency of lower scoring games over in London. This is
(14:23):
another game that you know will give you a secondary play.
Screams for you to take the six points added to
this and get it over a touchdown with the Jacksonville
Jaguars as well.
Speaker 1 (14:33):
In a teaser Mark Godiangelo, Teddy, great question, albeit it
went on forever and I fell asleep.
Speaker 2 (14:41):
The reason the reason that I went longer.
Speaker 3 (14:44):
We only have two guests today, so when we have time,
I would rather use the time with our guests than
have you yeah yeah, yeah, yeah yeah and waste the time.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
So yes, Teddy, I got I got a show recommendation coming,
so you might want to go of the washroom or
you vomote all over yourself. Marco, your answer was excellent,
by the way. The Tenny's follow up question, guys, I gotta,
I gotta quickly make an amendment to the cart ten promo.
(15:15):
Johnny Detroit got on and said, pres it's ten percent
off of a daily package, a one day, a three day,
a seven day, a thirty day, or a ninety day package,
or even a full month package. But it is not
available for our power pass or EB season. I don't
(15:37):
know what EB season early bird specials early bird special
and he said. If anyone emails in saying that I
said they could have ten percent off of the eb
season or the Power Pass, the commission will be taken
off of my check.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
Do it now?
Speaker 1 (15:59):
So yeah, email good? I dare you? Okay, guys, Marco,
You're so good. Bro love Avenue on the show. We've
promoted anything else.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
No, that's it.
Speaker 4 (16:17):
Guys, have a good win cash, a lot of tickets
and one last shameless plug. Look tomorrow, I will have
you know my feature that you guys like on bet
on It, the sandwich Games. I've started doing this year
an extra video where I give you some of the
sandwich spots that almost made the bet on It show.
So check that out. The deli is open, guys, you'll
(16:40):
see it on Friday.
Speaker 1 (16:42):
Excellent stuff. I'm going for deli today. Jesse Schule always
in the chat room making noise. Guys, hit that like
button please real quick again. Puck time up now. I'm
on it with Andrew McGinnis. Guys. I did the penalty
box segment yesterday. This is the thing I'm going to
be doing every day moving forward, Teddy. Instead of doing
(17:03):
it on our show, I'm taping it at eleven forty
five am Eastern. It's five NHL bets in five minutes.
Yesterday we went three and two. We had over fourteen
hundred of you guys watch that show. Thank you, Let's
do it again. I have to get over a thousand
every day in order to keep that show going. Teddy,
(17:26):
please be one of those thousand. Bet my NHL plays
make some money for you and your amazing wife. Just
trying to help, bro, Just trying to help, just trying
to help you.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
Dude.
Speaker 1 (17:38):
What did betters learn?
Speaker 3 (17:40):
So I'll talk about what better'sleon in just a minute.
But we're giving promos. I got to give my promo
because this is the deal. You know, if you want
to buy a Teddy Covers package, the ten percent off
does not apply to this deal because you get a
lot more than ten percent off. Use coupon code coupon
code Teddy three six five, and get a one year pass,
which normally I said nineteen hundred ninety nine dollars for
(18:02):
just ninety nine bucks a month, So you'll save more
than eight hundred dollars and you'll get every play every
day at every sport that I release over the next
three hundred and sixty five days.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
If you want to get on board with me. Some
of you don't. I understand.
Speaker 3 (18:16):
If you're interested in Teddy covers package, this is the
package to get.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
I know it's pricey.
Speaker 3 (18:22):
I expect to make you money and you'll be in
play every day for the next three under sixty five.
So again, Teddy three sixty five at checkout will get
you ninety nine dollars a month for a one year
all access pass. You can get that right now at
wagertalk dot com or on my PAGWT dot buzz backslash TC.
That offers expires after Monday Night Football next Monday, So
(18:43):
you're going.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
To do it, do it soon. Let's talk about Robert
Sala and the Jets move to fire him, and look
the timing.
Speaker 3 (18:50):
Yes, everyone gets fired when they come back from London,
but Sala is essentially getting fired because this kicker missed
a field goal two weeks ago, you know, a bad
game in London. It's bizarre. The Jets will be in
first place if they win the game on Monday Night
against Buffalo, and no coach in the NFL within one
(19:13):
game of first place has been fired this early in
the season since nineteen sixty one.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
In my mind.
Speaker 3 (19:18):
This is an ownership issue, this is a management to
GM issue, This is not a team issue.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
But what do we do with the Jets moving forward?
Number one? Pretty big distraction.
Speaker 3 (19:31):
Number two, pretty big game this week, And of course,
you know Aaron Rodgers is going on Pat McAfee show
and talker.
Speaker 2 (19:37):
Quote.
Speaker 3 (19:37):
As far as any of the ridiculous allegations out there,
I'm not going to spend more than one sentence and
respond to it, and that is I resent any of
those accusations because they're patently false. It's interesting the amount
of power that people think I have, which I don't.
I love Robert Robert Sala who is now gone. Of course,
Jeff Ulbrich has taken over. And guess what happened today.
(19:58):
Nathaniel Hackett, who everyone says Aaron Rodgers' best friend, he
got demoted with the shakeup on the offensive coordinator position
and now he will not be the play caller anymore.
It's gonna be Todd Downing, guy who did it for
Tennessee a few years back. The bottom line, Jets have
(20:19):
lost two in a row. They're playing in the media
capital of the world, all right, certainly of the country.
They'll still be playing for a share of first place
against the Bills on Monday, and in my mind, that
game is gonna tell us everything we need to know,
because this could be a team is fractured scenario. They're
not gonna get better, this could be a team bond scenario.
(20:42):
This week's game against the Bills, in my mind, is
gonna tell us that, which is why I'm probably not
gonna bet the game, but I expect to learn a
whole lot from it. That's what I learned last night, Lawrence.
What about you?
Speaker 1 (20:55):
Yeah, I mean, listen, I agree with everything you said.
It's insane. No wonder the Jets suck and have sucked
for decades and decades. Their owner is a moron. He's
not really a moron. I mean, Jesus Christy. He got
to a position where he could own an NFL team.
He's actually probably a genius, but he's a moron in
the NFL. Okay, let's move on from that. And by
(21:21):
the way, Teddy, I didn't promote. I only discussed my
great show. But I will promote. I do want to
give out a quick show recommendation to all of you
guys out there. I know a lot of you guys
like when I do this, Teddy hates it and I
could care less week under bite me. The over and
under is then ninety nine percent, So yes, take the under.
(21:42):
So look, for all you Canadians out there, we all
grew up watching one of the greatest bands of all time,
a band that didn't really break massively in America but
is huge in Europe and Canada. And I think a
band that is in the pantheon of the greatest bands ever,
a band that sits there with the Beatles, with the Stones,
(22:03):
with the Doors, with All the Queen, with all the
U two, Coldplay, all the biggest bands in history of
the world. And that band is The tragically Hip. There
is a documentary four part documentary on Amazon Prime called
The tragically Hip No Dress Rehearsal required. It is the
(22:23):
best music documentary you will ever see in your life.
In your life, Gord Downy Rip Gord. He ended up
getting brain cancer and with about ten months to live
eight months to live. Instead of doing treatments and trying
to figure out a way out of the brain cancer,
(22:44):
he decided to do a Canadian wide arena tour where
he stood on stage couldn't remember the lyrics sung like
a god and played this unbelievable tour across Canada while
he thanked everybody and they thanked him. I bowled my
eyes out last night watching this documentary, Rip Gord, watch
(23:09):
the Tragically Hip. If you don't know their music, it
is as good as it gets. Bob Cagun is a
spectacular song. I can go on, Wheat Kings, Fiddler's Green,
on and on and on. New Orleans is sinking. Watch
this documentary What a band? Okay?
Speaker 2 (23:30):
What the network is on?
Speaker 1 (23:33):
What Amazon?
Speaker 2 (23:34):
Crime?
Speaker 4 (23:35):
And it is?
Speaker 2 (23:36):
It's you said Netflix a minute ago, So which one
is it? For real?
Speaker 1 (23:40):
You stop doing that yesterday you did it as well,
and you were wrong. Screw off its prime and it
is spectacular. Teddy. We do have an NFL game going tonight.
I have a bet for my clients on that NFL game,
so I can't give it out on air. I also
have two NHL playing tonight, so I got a three
(24:03):
back up. There were my clients for twenty nine dollars,
But guys, I we're gonna run out of time on
my forty nine dollars package seven days of NHL, so
make sure to grab that. It's up in my page
forty nine dollars seven days of NHL. Okay, let's bring Steve,
Marilyn Steve. Have you heard of this band, the tragically Hip.
Speaker 5 (24:26):
No. I thought you were gonna say Rush, and then
when you said they weren't big in the US, I
was like, well, I hope.
Speaker 2 (24:30):
He doesn't say Rush because they were pretty big.
Speaker 1 (24:31):
Joe Us Johnny is sitting here going with the Beatles
and the Stones, WTF and Coldplay. Firstly, Johnny, Coldplay is
one of the top ten to fifteen bands of all time.
Whether you like their music or not. The tragically Hip,
shut up, Teddy. Tragically Hip do not have the fame
that the Beatles, the Stones, the Doors and all those
(24:54):
bands have, but they have the catalog. Go listen to
their music and you tell.
Speaker 3 (25:01):
I was pretty sure he was gonna say Anne, Murray,
Steve and Murray Ed.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
Murray was pretty big in Canada. But come on, Coldplay
is not a top fifteen band. Okay, we gotta move on,
We gotta move on anyway.
Speaker 5 (25:18):
I'm being dead sore is Coldplay? Canadian?
Speaker 1 (25:20):
No.
Speaker 5 (25:22):
I didn't understand. I didn't understand the point of cocaine.
I was getting very confused. I'm gonna stop going down
this rabbit hole before I get.
Speaker 1 (25:28):
So Teddy minus eight hundred Steve as a promo to
give out what do you which way would you go over?
Speaker 5 (25:34):
Well, it's kind of yes, yes, yeah, and Teddy, as
I told Press the other day, no offense. But I
don't come on these shows just to talk with you
guys and give out analysis without promoting my business as well,
because I do have a lot of other things to do.
So yeah, that's a pretty safe bet. Press minus a thousand.
I'm gonna breathe and drink some water today as well.
That's a good thing.
Speaker 1 (25:51):
I just want to end one second. Johnny Detroit, I
can pick fifty bands better than Coldplay, so can I.
But Johnny, you and I don't get to decide who
the biggest bands of all TI Mark the general public, dude,
Steve Baseball, Yankees at Royals? How do we bet this game?
Speaker 5 (26:11):
Teddy? Just so you know, it's gonna be safe tomorrow,
It's gonna be safe Monday. You and I are co
hosting Presby, and actually you get Tuesday off, So Teddy,
it'll be till next Wednesday that you and Presron six
days from now, So cherish the moments while you have them,
My friend, let's look at a free play tonight in
this MLB Game four Divisional Round Yankees Royals. Boy, the
TV networks are cringing, to say the least, because the
(26:33):
Yankees need to win one of these next two games.
Otherwise we're gonna have either Cleveland, Detroit or Kansas City
in the World Series. Of course, they'd love to see
the Dodgers finish off the Padres, we'd have Mets Dodgers.
They would love either one of them. But I do
think the Yankees more likely than not finish off this
series tonight on Thursday, and with veteran Garrett Cole on
the mound, they've got a pretty good chance to do so.
(26:54):
This is a Game one rematch from just five days
ago when Garrett Cole took on Michael WakaWaka, and it
was a high scoring game because both pitchers struggled. Cole
gave up three earned four runs and five innings. Waka,
even worse, went just four innings and gave up three
runs and that earned as well. I do look for
both pitchers to pitch better tonight. I think the under
could be worth a look here. Under seven and a half.
(27:16):
There are some eights floating around. And the reason I
say that is because the Yankees offense, despite winning last
night three to two, has been fairly cold. They put
up only four runs in that game last night, and
I'm sorry, four hits and scored three runs, but they
did leave eleven guys on base. In fact, they've left
eleven runners on base at two of the first two
of the last three games in this series so far,
(27:36):
and I do think they could maybe break out a
little bit more so, I'd like the Yankees here minus
a dollar forty five dollars fifty to finish off the series,
but I would also hedge it a little bit with
the under seven and a half under eight, just in
case that offense doesn't heat up. Aaron Judge, I don't
believe has a hit in this series yet. Two ways
to look at that. He's cold or he's due to
breakout as well. Yes, Kansas City's up against it, back
against the wall. Not sure though, that's a good thing
(27:59):
for experienced young team here is really just happy to
be in the postseason. Look for the Yankees to close
this series out tonight on Thursday. And also I would
lean under seven and a half as well.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
I want to ask you this. I mean, my basic
question for the Yankees is is.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
The price right? You know, it's not all you're getting
a bargain back in Cole and the Bronx Bombers in
case today, you're laying a buck fifty in that contest.
We're seeing a little bit of money come for KC
as we speak right now. If you're looking at the
wager Talk free live odd screen down to one forty
five at some of the leading indicator books. So we
are seeing a little bit of Kansas City money. But
my question is not with the Yankees the better of
(28:38):
the two teams. They are, but in a matchup where
Cole got hit the first time, Casey's bullpens every bit
as good as the Yankees is, and Aaron Judge isn't hitting,
I just wonder if this price is right in this
a bit of a premium that you're laying with the
Yankees tonight, or do you think the value is still there?
Speaker 5 (28:56):
It's a little bit of a price, but you know
the other ways you could play this, Teddy, of course,
is the line you're getting plus money minus one and
a half. My concerned there though, as I mentioned is
that the offense hasn't been explosive. Another option you could
do is to make a minus one run line. A
lot of books have that now, but it's the late
great Dave Cocin used to point out. You can make
your own minus one run line by putting half your
play on the money line, half your play on the
(29:17):
minus one and a half, and at minus one fifty
plus one ten, that would make it minus one minus
one twenty. So that's all another option here to get
that price down a little bit and also make sure
that that half run doesn't beat you with the minus
one and a half. So minus one minus one twenty
run line is also a way to approach this. And
the thing about baseball, which is different than football, is
that you know if they win, the price doesn't matter now.
(29:39):
Long term, it obviously does, and I'm very conscious of it,
and that's one of the reasons I've done so well
in baseball over the years is that I don't lay
inflated prices. But I do think the Yankees win this
game tonight, you might be paying a premium, but when
they get that w it's not gonna end up mattering.
Speaker 1 (29:53):
Steve Merrill joining us everyone, Steve, let's turn our engine
to some college football. Penn State at usc.
Speaker 5 (30:06):
Oh.
Speaker 1 (30:06):
You heard from the Penn State coach yesterday, blah blah blah.
The travel schedule sucks, anyway, who cares? How do we
bet this game?
Speaker 5 (30:15):
Very interesting travel matchup here. And one thing I've been
fascinated by with the new college football landscape is these
new conference realignments just lead to some crazy travel situations.
We see a lot of these ACC teams like Cal
going to the East coast this season, but now some
of these Big Ten teams are gonna have to travel
coast to coast, and Penn State is doing that here
in this situation.
Speaker 2 (30:35):
Now.
Speaker 5 (30:36):
It always catches my eye when a team is playing
their first road game of the season late, like five
six games in in October. Technically that doesn't apply here
because of course Penn State already had one road game
this season against West Virginia. But this is the first
real true road trip, obviously, and it is a cross
country trip. And after being at home now for over
a month straight. That West Virginia game, by the way,
it was August thirty first, a short little trip form
(31:00):
home for four straight games the entire month of September
into October having traveled at all in over a month
and a half. So I do think the travel situation
is real here, and the fact that the coach is
complaining about it kind of tells you that as well.
I run ten thousand simulations for every FBS game every week,
and I get an average victory margin, and it's really
a good starting point for games I want to kind
of make my short list, and this one does qualify here.
(31:22):
In fact, my ten thousand game simulation on average it
as a pick them has Penn State winning by point two,
so it's a toss up. It's a tie game. There
is line value with USC at plus five. I like
the scheduling situation as well, So the question becomes is
USC a team we could trust? I think it is.
I know they're coming off a disappointing loss against Minnesota.
It's their second loss in three games, devastating loss probably
(31:45):
for their national title hopes, to say the least. That
is normally a letdown concern. But the fact that they're
bringing in the number four team in the nation Penn
State here, I think they come focused. We saw the
Washington Huskies in a very focused spot last week. I
use that as a best bet for my clients as
part of a three and zero sweep last Saturday. By
the way, college football has been just crushing it this year,
(32:05):
right number one this season in college football. It has
just been a fantastic run. And the simulation works well.
When we get line value and we get the situational
analysis to back it up, it's a game that's worth considering.
I think that all works here. Always a concern with
the USC defense. This is a defense that was atrocious
last year, but then they look pretty good obviously in
that opener against LSU. I still think there may be
(32:26):
average at best this year, but the offense is explosive.
They're averaging number five yards of carry almost seven yards
of pass. Now, their passive attack has not been as
good as in year's pass, but the running game is
pretty solid and I do think they can somewhat control
the clock. And the other thing I want to point
out about Penn State and Franklin the Company is that
they have a tendency to be bullies. They beat up
on the weaker teams, cover big as favorites, but sometimes
(32:49):
not as good when stepping up in class. And I
do think this is a step up in class. I
know they're technically a favorite here, but I make the
game a pick them and the scheduleing spot. On top
of that, take a look at USC plus five. Think
there's some value with them, and they're a live dog
on this Saturday afternoon.
Speaker 2 (33:04):
So I'm going to ask you this.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
I'm interesting the total in this game, and so far
we've seen pretty much every sharp dollar come on the over.
We saw forty eight, forty eight and a half at
the open, there were a couple forty nine's. Now I'm
seeing fifty and a half and fifty ones and those
are the leading indicator books who tells us that the
sharp money has clearly come for.
Speaker 2 (33:22):
The over in this game. You agree with that assessment
or disagree?
Speaker 5 (33:27):
Yeah, tell you it's no question the sharp money's on
the over. I'm glad you pointed that out. It's moved
up and it's crossing that key number of fifty one
almost So for people out there don't know key number
in totals we talk, thirty seven, forty one and fifty
one would be the three.
Speaker 2 (33:39):
That come to mind.
Speaker 5 (33:40):
I do agree with the move. As I mentioned earlier,
I'm not sold on that USC defense still, but I
think the offense is pretty good. And keep in mind
last year USC was just a pure overplay for most
of the season for that reason, and also this is
a step up in class for the Penn State defense.
Overall this season, they've given up just four yards per play,
just eleven points a game, but they haven't faced an
offense like USC, and I think that's another reason we've
(34:02):
seen some money coming on the over I mean so
far faced Bowling Green, Kent State, Illinois, and then Ucla
last week. I mean, Ucla is really struggling offensively as well.
So I do like to step up in class. That's
one of the reasons I like USC, and I definitely
would not disagree with the over steve.
Speaker 1 (34:18):
It's time for the rarest of things you promoting.
Speaker 5 (34:25):
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(34:46):
two seasons. Entering this year, I was number one in
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(35:51):
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Speaker 1 (36:02):
Steve Merril, Everyone Teddy Covers. Wow, Hey, I wasted a
lot of time with the coldplay tragically hip conversation. So
we're gonna do your big game breakdown and then a
lot of the people in the chat room want to
hear are thoughts on Dallas and Detroit. So let's do
your big game breakdown first. I already have my follow
up question planned.
Speaker 3 (36:24):
Go big Game breakdown. Let's talk about the Packers and
the Cardinals. Right now, looking at the free wait you
Talk live odd screen Green Bay minus five. At most books,
there is some vary ANSWER's a four and a half
and a five and a half out there, but we'll
call five the prevailing number as we speak, total sitting
(36:45):
forty seven slash forty seven and a half. There's two
reasons why I can't play the Packers right now, really
three reasons why I can't play the pack in this game.
First and foremost, you can't lay points in the NFL
this year, all right, We've seen the favorites of what
five are are higher covered of what a twenty percent clip.
(37:06):
So I am absolutely at this stage heading into Week
six bias towards underdogs a plus five or higher unless
I've got a good reason to lay it with the favorite.
Parody's been the play and we're expecting more of the same.
So that's factor one, as the league wide trend has
been very clearly, don't lay points against decent teams.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
Factor number two. Strength of schedule.
Speaker 3 (37:33):
Wise, the Packers have faced the Rams, they've had Tennessee,
they've had Indy, they've had Philly. You know, I guess
their toughest opponent was Minnesota, Cardial, the face San fran Washington, Detroit, Buffalo.
They've had the tougher schedule. So who's battle tested. It's
Arizona Packers. Five games for them have been decided by
(37:53):
less than a touchdown. The highest point spread covered was
minus three last week against LA and they only covered
that thanks to a two point conversion.
Speaker 2 (38:02):
You know one other factor here worth considering.
Speaker 3 (38:05):
I forget how anything out that three points, two points,
I don't know, I'm going on and on, but you know,
Arizona's number nine the red zone touchdown percentage. They're scoring
touchdowns when they have the opportunity. Green Bay's non number eighteen. Defensively,
they're both in the same place, so there's no advantage
for either squad, but Arizona's been better at executing in
the red zone.
Speaker 2 (38:25):
Bottom line, the green Bay leads the NFL and takeaways.
Speaker 3 (38:28):
They have fourteen takeaways in the first five games. And
we know that defensive creat takeaways can continue to create takeaways,
but we do not expect teams to live and die
by positive turnover deferential week after week after week. I
think green Bay may be a little bit overvalued. As
a result, there's been sharp money for the dog. They
took out the plus sixes. I can understand why Arizona
(38:50):
or pass for this better and again use coupon code
Teddy three six five and get every play every day
for the next three hundred and sixty five days for
ninety nine bucks a month. It is the deal to
get if you're interested in a long term package with
all of my plays again Teddy three to six y
(39:11):
five at check out. This offer expires on Monday after
Monday Night Football. Do not delay if you want to
get on board, Lawrence.
Speaker 1 (39:20):
Teddy, I listen. I'm going to tell you right off
the bat that I'm with you on this bet. I
like Arizona here too, but I'm not getting to the window.
And here is why, and this is my follow up
question and why it was relevant to whatever you said.
Why would you bet on a team or against a team?
Just bet a game that has a team that can
(39:43):
put up forty one points one week thirteen the next fourteen,
one week twenty four to the next. Why would you
be involved in a game where a defense can hold
a team to ten points one week, forty two points
the next. The inc consistency of this Arizona team lends
(40:04):
me to just stay away.
Speaker 3 (40:07):
So I'll answer that question. And in fact, it's a
great question in one sense. As a better the number
one thing I love is an inconsistent team.
Speaker 2 (40:20):
That I've got to read on. Ah, that's what I love,
because the market's like, I don't.
Speaker 3 (40:27):
Know what to do with this team, and you're like, no,
they played good this week, They're gonna play bad next week.
They match up well against this opponent, they don't match
up well against that opponent. As a handicapper, I don't
mind the inconsistent teams when you.
Speaker 2 (40:37):
Can get a read on.
Speaker 3 (40:40):
Can't say I love Arizona off a win, but certainly
the game against the Rams that was as strong an
Arizona spot as you'll see ever, you know, uh, And
then the loss to Washington was about as bad as
they can play. You know, they are an inconsistent team.
That said, they've gone on the highway, and they competed
at Buffet Low and at San Francisco, so we've seen
(41:02):
them go on the road and play well twice, you know,
or play reasonally. I mean, the two middle quarters of
that Buffalo game weren't pretty, but they got the money
in that contest.
Speaker 2 (41:12):
They got it to the hot start. But the bottom
line is.
Speaker 3 (41:16):
The teams that aren't consistent, our job is to figure
out why and what games they are likely or less
likely to step up in and to me, that's the
reason to get involved with any team that's inconsistent.
Speaker 2 (41:29):
I love it.
Speaker 3 (41:30):
You know again, when the markets don't have a read
on a team and you do advantage you.
Speaker 1 (41:36):
I love it. Great answer, Teddy, And if way to
have a read on a team that doesn't even have
a read on itself, that's impressive stuff. Bro Okay, guys,
real quick. I got a play going tonight in the
NFL and two NHL plays. What do you got going, Teddy?
Speaker 3 (41:55):
I have a single best bet in MLB and MLBS.
The players have been real good man. I think I've
won four in a row, mining seventy one percent playoff run.
I'm riding an eighty eight percent all sports run in today.
We're running pretty good so far. This month, we'll see
we can keep it going for the single best bet tonight.
You want to talk about the Cowboys and the Lions, Lawrence,
(42:16):
I do the way you're coming live on screen right now.
Speaker 2 (42:19):
I see Detroit minus three. There are some shops you
have to lay a little.
Speaker 3 (42:22):
Bit of juice minus fifteen, minus twenty total fifty two
pretty much across the board.
Speaker 2 (42:28):
How do you break it down? Dallas and Detroit?
Speaker 1 (42:31):
So for me, Teddy. I'm really looking at the over
here and look we go through this time and time again.
Oh my god, it's so high. Bet the highest totals
over the lowest totals under. I look at this game
as a fifty two and I think, to myself, Okay,
Dallas and Detroit both top five offenses last year. Now
is last year relevant relevant? It is to me because
(42:54):
they're really rolling out a very similar offense. And I
don't think we've seen Dallas get going at all. Right now,
with that said, they put up twenty against Pittsburgh, but
that twenty could have been thirty plus. They went into
the red zone three times. They came away with nothing
on those three trips. Now, obviously one will say, well
they shot themselves in the foot. They're not turning the
(43:15):
ball over three times in the red zone at home
on that fast track against the Detroit Lions. Both defenses
are middle of the pack. Dallas is going to have
no pass rush, leaving golf to throw all day long.
Mic is still out, Lawrence is still out. Their secondary
is mediocre. I think Detroit's defense is medium at best.
(43:37):
And I look at this game and I say, one
of these teams gets into the thirties. This game goes
over the total of fifty two. I think both teams
can get into the thirties. I think we can see
a thirty four to thirty one type game, which is
like twelve over the total of fifty two. I love
that it's on a fast track. I love that Detroit
just came off of a big offensive out pouring against Seattle.
(44:00):
And I like the Dallas moved the ball up and
down the field on Pittsburgh last week. I like the
over here, Teddy, what about you?
Speaker 2 (44:08):
Well, the Choy's coming off of buye.
Speaker 3 (44:09):
They're not coming off Seattle, so we know what's a
It's a huge difference.
Speaker 1 (44:14):
Why you willing my over better? It makes the over
better that they're coming off of a buye from my perspective, Okay,
because I want why Because I want to play to
the definition of the teams. Detroit is a team that
I think will go over more than under. I think
they've defined themselves as a high scoring team. Now they've
(44:35):
had an extra week to work on what they do best,
which is score points.
Speaker 3 (44:41):
Well, I mean, the Lions had scored twenty sixteen and
twenty six in the three weeks prior to Seattle. I'm
doing my an ounce of the game. I got a
minute to do it, and I'm not playing the game.
Let me start with this. I'm just giving press trouble.
I'm not playing the side. I'm not playing the total.
If I had to play the side, I would played
Detroit because I think the Detroit's the better of these
two teams.
Speaker 1 (44:59):
Agreed the.
Speaker 3 (45:02):
It's not really necessarily that close. But I'm a little
reluctant to play Dallas over right now.
Speaker 2 (45:09):
The offense is not clicking on all cylinders. We saw
that in the Saints game. We saw that in the
Steelers game. We saw that in the Giants game.
Speaker 3 (45:17):
The talent level might be there, but the offensive line
play isn't for Dallas, and I think that'll be a
problem against Detroit. So slight lean here towards the Lions,
but nothing I'm likely to get to the windows, certainly
not at minus three. If we see two and a half,
maybe I'll get involved. But we're not going to see
a two and a half on this game, which I'm
with I will be passing.
Speaker 1 (45:36):
I'm totally with you. I agree on that side. Jessica
asked if I like the under in the Florida Ottawa
game in NHL. Yes, I do, Jessica And if you
guys want to know my five NHL picks in my
penalty box segment, head over to wager Talk TV check
out the Penalty Box segment. No presidential address today, as
(45:58):
we did some NFL A red Teddy, good luck tonight,
have fun. I will see all of you guys on Tuesday.
Be well, everybody, Teddy take us home.
Speaker 2 (46:08):
Sure.
Speaker 3 (46:09):
Thank you so much, really for taking part out of
your busy day, taking time out of your busy day,
taking part of your busy day to hang out with
us on.
Speaker 2 (46:15):
Way You Talk Today. We appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (46:17):
We appreciate the likes, We appreciate the follows, We appreciate
the comments very much. Best of luck, whatever sport your
betting to night. There's a bunch of them and we'll
see you guys tomorrow with another edition of Where You
Talk Today.
Speaker 2 (46:29):
Cheers,
Welcome the wage you talk today everyone, and what a
freaking show we got lined up for you. Marco DiAngelo.
Right off the bat, he's gonna talk Iowa State versus
West Virginia, and he'll take a look at the London
England NFL game, Jacksonville playing the Bears Steve Merrill. After that,
he's gonna look at the Yankees at Royal's great game
(00:23):
last night, and he's gonna take apart Penn State at USC.
There will be no third guest today. Instead, Teddy and
I will be talking some NFL. If you guys want
to want a game, I want a game that. If
you guys want to pick the games, go ahead, Eddy
(00:44):
and I will take your advice. Teddy covers, what's your
big game breakdown?
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Big game breakdown?
Speaker 3 (00:50):
This is one you don't have to pick if you're
trying to suggest games for us to talk about today
on the show.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
I'm gonna break.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Down the Packers and the Cardinals Arizona at Green Bay
NFL game breakdown, And.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Of course we'll also talk the Robert Salah firing for
the New York Jets and what letters learned.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
Yeah, and you know what, guys, super surprised I'm gonna
have a follow up question on Teddy's big game breakdown. Oh, yes,
I already know what it is. I don't even know
what you're gonna say, but I already have my follow
up question prepared. Puck time is up everyone, eleven am Eastern.
We taped, don't you worry? Teddy? We taped eleven am Eastern.
(01:28):
I'm on with Andrew McGinnis. Make sure to check that out.
What do you want to say? What do you want
to say? Gollum?
Speaker 3 (01:35):
It's not possible for you to have a follow up
question yet because you haven't listened to any of my analysis.
So if you have a follow up question before even start,
then you're not doing your job.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
Oh hot wheels trademark the term challenge accepted. Challenge accepted.
Marco D'Angelo joining us. Marco, God, you're so good man.
How are you so damn good?
Speaker 4 (02:01):
Just clean living, press clean living.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
Do edibles every night? Marco?
Speaker 2 (02:07):
No, I don't I know.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
I just I wanted to make or I do I do.
I'm an edible art anyway, my brother, let's go. Iowa
State is playing West Virginia minus three for state. Where
are we going here?
Speaker 4 (02:26):
Yeah, we're looking at this one, guys in you know,
West Virginia rolled big last week. I mean, they just
absolutely trounced Oklahoma State. But let's be honest. That Oklahoma
State defense has been getting shredded by everybody. Oklahoma State
can't stop the run, and West Virginia ran the football.
You ready for this sixty five times? This isn't you
(02:49):
know air Force or Navy or Army. They ran it
sixty five times for three hundred and eighty nine yards.
That's not gonna happen this week against this Iowa State defense.
This is a defense that has played well all season long,
and I look for them to dominate this game. Shut
(03:09):
down that West Virginia offense. And I got a note
as well. Last week, West Virginia had the luxury of
a bye week before they played Oklahoma State in two
weeks to prepare for a team, especially a team that
is in disarray like Oklahoma State is. That was a
benefit that they don't have this week. I'm looking at
(03:31):
this Iowa State offense and I know that in the
past people look at Iowa State and say, you know,
they struggle to score points. This offense is much better
than it has been. They have run for two hundred
and thirty five yards or more in three straight games.
And when you can run the football, it opens everything
else up. And if I look at this West Virginia defense,
(03:54):
the running game wasn't tested last week because Oklahoma State
was so far behind. They didn't I couldn't run the football.
But you go two weeks prior to that, before they
went into Dubai, Kansas ran for two hundred and forty
eight yards against them. I think that sets up Iowa
State here. When they can run the football, it'll set
up a lot of stuff on play action. I'll ride
(04:17):
that defense. I've got a number here at three that
basically we just need to win the ball game. I'll
go ahead and go with that and that Iowa State defense.
I always like taking the better defense. Four point four
yards per play they're allowing, while West Virginia is allowing
six point one yards per play.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
So I gotta ask you about full season stats right now,
because when we look at these two teams, I see
two very different strength to schedules. You know, West Virginia
has already played Oklahoma State, Kansas, Pitt Penn State, Iowa State, well,
they had Baylor at Arkansas State, North Dakota.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
You know they've been.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
Able to fatten up their statistical profile based on some
lesser foes.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Does that concern you?
Speaker 3 (05:03):
Do you look at strength to schedule when it comes
to betting October college football?
Speaker 2 (05:07):
And if so, how do you factor that in?
Speaker 4 (05:10):
Obviously, Teddy, you got to look at the December stats.
They're the most deceiving because generally some teams, like you said,
will have a cupcake on their schedule in September. Where
West Virginia their strength to schedule really is dominated by
the fact that they played Penn State that first game
out of the season. In Penn State coming into the
season was ranked as high as they were. That's going
(05:33):
to sway their strength to schedule. But I got to
look at what they did against those teams. They gave
up a lot of points when they faced better quality foes.
Penn State scored a lot of points against them, Pitts
scored a lot of points against them, and Kansas scored
points against them as well. I think Iowa State will
(05:53):
score against them, and I think Iowa State, next to
the Penn State game, this is the best defense they face, Teddy,
So they got to go with the schedule that's in
front of them. We'll see now where those stats even
out is they get into the meat of conference schedule.
But you are right, don't rely solely on early season
(06:15):
stats when they got those September skewed numbers in there.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Margoty Angelo, everybody, guys, Marco absolutely rolling. I mean, this
is like ad nauseum. Every bloody week. All we talk
about is our great Marco is twenty six and eleven
in the WNBA this season, made his one hundred dollars
better is three two and fifteen dollars. Kudos to you,
(06:41):
my friend also on a ten and four run in
his four and five percent place. And guys, we got
a really interesting promo going today. It's the fill your
Cart promotion. Basically, anything you put in your cart today,
if you use the promo code cart ten c A
RT ten, you get ten percent off of anything in
(07:01):
that chart. Marco D'Angelo, what do you have going with
the clients tonight?
Speaker 4 (07:08):
Well, I had you mention that WNBA record because I
do have a big play tonight in Game one of
the WNBA Finals. I have a four percent plate going tonight,
and pres, I know a lot of people you say WNBA.
They don't want to they don't like it. They don't
want to watch it. You know what, you don't have
to watch it. You don't have to like it. You
just gotta want to make money. Marco, even doing.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
Marco, it's so strange, Like, you know, I would say
that ninety percent of the betters that we have have
stock some stock. How do they watch that all day?
Like what do they do? Do they go to the
company where they bought the stock, sit in the lobby
(07:53):
and check out who walks up and down? Like why
do you have to watch or like sports to make money?
Surely you do not watch or like stocks. They don't
do anything.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
I'm tell our audience, I don't stop.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
Yeah, we got some young we got some young I'd
like to give our audience a lot of credit. Teddy,
I know, I know, I'll tell you flat out. I mean,
we've got some very very wise shrewd audience members. And
speaking of those wide shrewd audience members, hit that like
button plays. Let's go Teddy, Marco. Let's move on to
(08:35):
the next game to talk about. And this is the
Jacksonville Chicago game. Super interesting game year because Chicago has
gotten on a little bit of a role. But they
came into the season expecting not much, and Jacksonville really
came into the season expecting a playoff birth now they
are one and three. They finally won a game one
and four. I like Jacksonville here, Marco. My gut feel is,
(09:00):
this is a team that has traveled to London a
million times. I think they won last week. They get
their act together. I like Jacksonville. Where are you going?
Speaker 4 (09:09):
Well, I'm going to agree with you present. I like
Jacksonville here as well. And Jacksonville showed me something last
week gutting out a win thirty seven thirty four. And
the reason I say that they showed me something there
obviously we all saw that Monday night football game against
Buffalo and they just absolutely got demolished and looked like
(09:29):
a team that quit in the second half. They lost
that game by thirty seven points. They come back the
next week. Give them credit. And I was on Jacksonville
when they played Houston because it was a division game.
They could have got themselves back in the race with
a win against Houston that day, and they led that
game the entire way until Houston rallied in the final
drive and got the win. A team that was winless
(09:53):
and gave such an effort like that and came up
short against the division rival that pretty much put them
at zero to four and behind the eight ball for
the season, could have very easily quit on the season,
and they didn't. They come back and got a win
last week. And it doesn't matter if it was an
ugly win or not. A win is a win, and
that's what can propel a team onto a streak. Now,
(10:14):
they go to London, Like you said, you know, we
never know how teams are going to react going to London.
When they do it, you know that they're not accustomed
to it. If there's any team that's accustomed to it,
it's Jacksonville because they play at least one game over
there every year, and some years they've played too like
they're going to be doing again this year. They'll be
playing back to back weeks there, so they know the routine.
(10:36):
Now let's look at Chicago and you said, hell, they
put together, you know, a little win streak. They won
two games in a row. Let's pump the brakes. Two
weeks ago they beat the Rams. I had Chicago in
that game because the Rams were coming off an upset
of the forty nine ers the week before, and the
Rams were decimated with injuries. Chicago got to win. Okay, great,
(10:59):
but you know there's an asterisk to that win because
of the condition in a situation with the Rams. Then
last week they beat up on a Carolina team. We
know that this Carolina team has its faults, and so
I'm not as impressed with that. Plus the fact those
two wins, Chicago was plus five in a turnover margin,
five and nothing in those two games on turnovers. You're
(11:21):
supposed to win games when you have those kind of turnovers.
I think the wrong team is favored here. You've got
a Chicago team favorite on the road. I think you know.
I just I can't buy that. And then here's a
stat for you on Caro on Chicago since twenty twenty two.
Following a game where Chicago has scored thirty points or more,
(11:44):
they row and six against the spread. Now, I know
Teddy's gonna come back and say, yeah, but that's not
with Caleb Williams. Well it's not. But until he shows
me he can do it, I'm still gonna look at
that stat. Until he does it, I just don't trust
him on the road, and I said about that clean
two games at home five and zero with the turnovers.
(12:05):
His last two road games, the Bears did have five turnovers.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
So I'm not going to ask you about that.
Speaker 3 (12:13):
I'm actually going to ask you about the matchup of
the Jaguars offense, sorry, the Jaguars defensive line versus the
Bears offensive line and vice versa. Last week, Chicago pressured
Andy Dalton on twenty of his forty one dropbacks. That's
their highest pressure rate in the game since ESPN began
tracking the metric in two thousand and nine. Their defensive
(12:35):
line blew up the line of scrimmage again and again
in that ball game. Last week, the Jags faced Indy
and in that game, Trevor Lawrence had a two point
nine percent pressure rate that was the lowest of his career.
Of course, the Colts were playing without three of their
four starters on the defensive line, and they had no
pass rush whatsoever, and Trevor Lawrence had all day to
(12:57):
throw the football and lo and behold his first three
hundred yard game of the season and Jacksonville's first win
of the season and Jacksonville's first offensive good performance of
the season. Now We're looking at a Jags team that,
in theory is going to face a real pass rush.
Does that worry you?
Speaker 1 (13:17):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (13:17):
Obviously having the pass rush there, But you know, again,
the team that they faced last week, Carolina, you know
their offensive line is not that good. In two, you
have Andy Dalton back there. Okay, Andy Dalton is not
a mobile quarterback, especially at this stage of his career.
Trevor Lawd's although he's not, you know, a runner, you know,
(13:39):
like Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, he is definitely more
mobile than Andy Dalton. So I think that will be negated.
It's still You're just you're asking a team with a
rookie quarterback in my opinion, to do something across the
pond that I just they have to show me they
can do that. This is a young team laying points
(14:01):
on the road, and I know technically this is a
home game for Chicago, but they're not. It's sold your field.
I just I can't buy it, Teddy. I will tell
you this much, and it will probably be a client
play as well. Not only do I like Jacksonville, but
because of this total and because we have seen a
tendency of lower scoring games over in London. This is
(14:23):
another game that you know will give you a secondary play.
Screams for you to take the six points added to
this and get it over a touchdown with the Jacksonville
Jaguars as well.
Speaker 1 (14:33):
In a teaser Mark Godiangelo, Teddy, great question, albeit it
went on forever and I fell asleep.
Speaker 2 (14:41):
The reason the reason that I went longer.
Speaker 3 (14:44):
We only have two guests today, so when we have time,
I would rather use the time with our guests than
have you yeah yeah, yeah, yeah yeah and waste the time.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
So yes, Teddy, I got I got a show recommendation coming,
so you might want to go of the washroom or
you vomote all over yourself. Marco, your answer was excellent,
by the way. The Tenny's follow up question, guys, I gotta,
I gotta quickly make an amendment to the cart ten promo.
(15:15):
Johnny Detroit got on and said, pres it's ten percent
off of a daily package, a one day, a three day,
a seven day, a thirty day, or a ninety day package,
or even a full month package. But it is not
available for our power pass or EB season. I don't
(15:37):
know what EB season early bird specials early bird special
and he said. If anyone emails in saying that I
said they could have ten percent off of the eb
season or the Power Pass, the commission will be taken
off of my check.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
Do it now?
Speaker 1 (15:59):
So yeah, email good? I dare you? Okay, guys, Marco,
You're so good. Bro love Avenue on the show. We've
promoted anything else.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
No, that's it.
Speaker 4 (16:17):
Guys, have a good win cash, a lot of tickets
and one last shameless plug. Look tomorrow, I will have
you know my feature that you guys like on bet
on It, the sandwich Games. I've started doing this year
an extra video where I give you some of the
sandwich spots that almost made the bet on It show.
So check that out. The deli is open, guys, you'll
(16:40):
see it on Friday.
Speaker 1 (16:42):
Excellent stuff. I'm going for deli today. Jesse Schule always
in the chat room making noise. Guys, hit that like
button please real quick again. Puck time up now. I'm
on it with Andrew McGinnis. Guys. I did the penalty
box segment yesterday. This is the thing I'm going to
be doing every day moving forward, Teddy. Instead of doing
(17:03):
it on our show, I'm taping it at eleven forty
five am Eastern. It's five NHL bets in five minutes.
Yesterday we went three and two. We had over fourteen
hundred of you guys watch that show. Thank you, Let's
do it again. I have to get over a thousand
every day in order to keep that show going. Teddy,
(17:26):
please be one of those thousand. Bet my NHL plays
make some money for you and your amazing wife. Just
trying to help, bro, Just trying to help, just trying
to help you.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
Dude.
Speaker 1 (17:38):
What did betters learn?
Speaker 3 (17:40):
So I'll talk about what better'sleon in just a minute.
But we're giving promos. I got to give my promo
because this is the deal. You know, if you want
to buy a Teddy Covers package, the ten percent off
does not apply to this deal because you get a
lot more than ten percent off. Use coupon code coupon
code Teddy three six five, and get a one year pass,
which normally I said nineteen hundred ninety nine dollars for
(18:02):
just ninety nine bucks a month, So you'll save more
than eight hundred dollars and you'll get every play every
day at every sport that I release over the next
three hundred and sixty five days.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
If you want to get on board with me. Some
of you don't. I understand.
Speaker 3 (18:16):
If you're interested in Teddy covers package, this is the
package to get.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
I know it's pricey.
Speaker 3 (18:22):
I expect to make you money and you'll be in
play every day for the next three under sixty five.
So again, Teddy three sixty five at checkout will get
you ninety nine dollars a month for a one year
all access pass. You can get that right now at
wagertalk dot com or on my PAGWT dot buzz backslash TC.
That offers expires after Monday Night Football next Monday, So
(18:43):
you're going.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
To do it, do it soon. Let's talk about Robert
Sala and the Jets move to fire him, and look
the timing.
Speaker 3 (18:50):
Yes, everyone gets fired when they come back from London,
but Sala is essentially getting fired because this kicker missed
a field goal two weeks ago, you know, a bad
game in London. It's bizarre. The Jets will be in
first place if they win the game on Monday Night
against Buffalo, and no coach in the NFL within one
(19:13):
game of first place has been fired this early in
the season since nineteen sixty one.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
In my mind.
Speaker 3 (19:18):
This is an ownership issue, this is a management to
GM issue, This is not a team issue.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
But what do we do with the Jets moving forward?
Number one? Pretty big distraction.
Speaker 3 (19:31):
Number two, pretty big game this week, And of course,
you know Aaron Rodgers is going on Pat McAfee show
and talker.
Speaker 2 (19:37):
Quote.
Speaker 3 (19:37):
As far as any of the ridiculous allegations out there,
I'm not going to spend more than one sentence and
respond to it, and that is I resent any of
those accusations because they're patently false. It's interesting the amount
of power that people think I have, which I don't.
I love Robert Robert Sala who is now gone. Of course,
Jeff Ulbrich has taken over. And guess what happened today.
(19:58):
Nathaniel Hackett, who everyone says Aaron Rodgers' best friend, he
got demoted with the shakeup on the offensive coordinator position
and now he will not be the play caller anymore.
It's gonna be Todd Downing, guy who did it for
Tennessee a few years back. The bottom line, Jets have
(20:19):
lost two in a row. They're playing in the media
capital of the world, all right, certainly of the country.
They'll still be playing for a share of first place
against the Bills on Monday, and in my mind, that
game is gonna tell us everything we need to know,
because this could be a team is fractured scenario. They're
not gonna get better, this could be a team bond scenario.
(20:42):
This week's game against the Bills, in my mind, is
gonna tell us that, which is why I'm probably not
gonna bet the game, but I expect to learn a
whole lot from it. That's what I learned last night, Lawrence.
What about you?
Speaker 1 (20:55):
Yeah, I mean, listen, I agree with everything you said.
It's insane. No wonder the Jets suck and have sucked
for decades and decades. Their owner is a moron. He's
not really a moron. I mean, Jesus Christy. He got
to a position where he could own an NFL team.
He's actually probably a genius, but he's a moron in
the NFL. Okay, let's move on from that. And by
(21:21):
the way, Teddy, I didn't promote. I only discussed my
great show. But I will promote. I do want to
give out a quick show recommendation to all of you
guys out there. I know a lot of you guys
like when I do this, Teddy hates it and I
could care less week under bite me. The over and
under is then ninety nine percent, So yes, take the under.
(21:42):
So look, for all you Canadians out there, we all
grew up watching one of the greatest bands of all time,
a band that didn't really break massively in America but
is huge in Europe and Canada. And I think a
band that is in the pantheon of the greatest bands ever,
a band that sits there with the Beatles, with the Stones,
(22:03):
with the Doors, with All the Queen, with all the
U two, Coldplay, all the biggest bands in history of
the world. And that band is The tragically Hip. There
is a documentary four part documentary on Amazon Prime called
The tragically Hip No Dress Rehearsal required. It is the
(22:23):
best music documentary you will ever see in your life.
In your life, Gord Downy Rip Gord. He ended up
getting brain cancer and with about ten months to live
eight months to live. Instead of doing treatments and trying
to figure out a way out of the brain cancer,
(22:44):
he decided to do a Canadian wide arena tour where
he stood on stage couldn't remember the lyrics sung like
a god and played this unbelievable tour across Canada while
he thanked everybody and they thanked him. I bowled my
eyes out last night watching this documentary, Rip Gord, watch
(23:09):
the Tragically Hip. If you don't know their music, it
is as good as it gets. Bob Cagun is a
spectacular song. I can go on, Wheat Kings, Fiddler's Green,
on and on and on. New Orleans is sinking. Watch
this documentary What a band? Okay?
Speaker 2 (23:30):
What the network is on?
Speaker 1 (23:33):
What Amazon?
Speaker 2 (23:34):
Crime?
Speaker 4 (23:35):
And it is?
Speaker 2 (23:36):
It's you said Netflix a minute ago, So which one
is it? For real?
Speaker 1 (23:40):
You stop doing that yesterday you did it as well,
and you were wrong. Screw off its prime and it
is spectacular. Teddy. We do have an NFL game going tonight.
I have a bet for my clients on that NFL game,
so I can't give it out on air. I also
have two NHL playing tonight, so I got a three
(24:03):
back up. There were my clients for twenty nine dollars,
But guys, I we're gonna run out of time on
my forty nine dollars package seven days of NHL, so
make sure to grab that. It's up in my page
forty nine dollars seven days of NHL. Okay, let's bring Steve,
Marilyn Steve. Have you heard of this band, the tragically Hip.
Speaker 5 (24:26):
No. I thought you were gonna say Rush, and then
when you said they weren't big in the US, I
was like, well, I hope.
Speaker 2 (24:30):
He doesn't say Rush because they were pretty big.
Speaker 1 (24:31):
Joe Us Johnny is sitting here going with the Beatles
and the Stones, WTF and Coldplay. Firstly, Johnny, Coldplay is
one of the top ten to fifteen bands of all time.
Whether you like their music or not. The tragically Hip,
shut up, Teddy. Tragically Hip do not have the fame
that the Beatles, the Stones, the Doors and all those
(24:54):
bands have, but they have the catalog. Go listen to
their music and you tell.
Speaker 3 (25:01):
I was pretty sure he was gonna say Anne, Murray,
Steve and Murray Ed.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
Murray was pretty big in Canada. But come on, Coldplay
is not a top fifteen band. Okay, we gotta move on,
We gotta move on anyway.
Speaker 5 (25:18):
I'm being dead sore is Coldplay? Canadian?
Speaker 1 (25:20):
No.
Speaker 5 (25:22):
I didn't understand. I didn't understand the point of cocaine.
I was getting very confused. I'm gonna stop going down
this rabbit hole before I get.
Speaker 1 (25:28):
So Teddy minus eight hundred Steve as a promo to
give out what do you which way would you go over?
Speaker 5 (25:34):
Well, it's kind of yes, yes, yeah, and Teddy, as
I told Press the other day, no offense. But I
don't come on these shows just to talk with you
guys and give out analysis without promoting my business as well,
because I do have a lot of other things to do.
So yeah, that's a pretty safe bet. Press minus a thousand.
I'm gonna breathe and drink some water today as well.
That's a good thing.
Speaker 1 (25:51):
I just want to end one second. Johnny Detroit, I
can pick fifty bands better than Coldplay, so can I.
But Johnny, you and I don't get to decide who
the biggest bands of all TI Mark the general public, dude,
Steve Baseball, Yankees at Royals? How do we bet this game?
Speaker 5 (26:11):
Teddy? Just so you know, it's gonna be safe tomorrow,
It's gonna be safe Monday. You and I are co
hosting Presby, and actually you get Tuesday off, So Teddy,
it'll be till next Wednesday that you and Presron six
days from now, So cherish the moments while you have them,
My friend, let's look at a free play tonight in
this MLB Game four Divisional Round Yankees Royals. Boy, the
TV networks are cringing, to say the least, because the
(26:33):
Yankees need to win one of these next two games.
Otherwise we're gonna have either Cleveland, Detroit or Kansas City
in the World Series. Of course, they'd love to see
the Dodgers finish off the Padres, we'd have Mets Dodgers.
They would love either one of them. But I do
think the Yankees more likely than not finish off this
series tonight on Thursday, and with veteran Garrett Cole on
the mound, they've got a pretty good chance to do so.
(26:54):
This is a Game one rematch from just five days
ago when Garrett Cole took on Michael WakaWaka, and it
was a high scoring game because both pitchers struggled. Cole
gave up three earned four runs and five innings. Waka,
even worse, went just four innings and gave up three
runs and that earned as well. I do look for
both pitchers to pitch better tonight. I think the under
could be worth a look here. Under seven and a half.
(27:16):
There are some eights floating around. And the reason I
say that is because the Yankees offense, despite winning last
night three to two, has been fairly cold. They put
up only four runs in that game last night, and
I'm sorry, four hits and scored three runs, but they
did leave eleven guys on base. In fact, they've left
eleven runners on base at two of the first two
of the last three games in this series so far,
(27:36):
and I do think they could maybe break out a
little bit more so, I'd like the Yankees here minus
a dollar forty five dollars fifty to finish off the series,
but I would also hedge it a little bit with
the under seven and a half under eight, just in
case that offense doesn't heat up. Aaron Judge, I don't
believe has a hit in this series yet. Two ways
to look at that. He's cold or he's due to
breakout as well. Yes, Kansas City's up against it, back
against the wall. Not sure though, that's a good thing
(27:59):
for experienced young team here is really just happy to
be in the postseason. Look for the Yankees to close
this series out tonight on Thursday. And also I would
lean under seven and a half as well.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
I want to ask you this. I mean, my basic
question for the Yankees is is.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
The price right? You know, it's not all you're getting
a bargain back in Cole and the Bronx Bombers in
case today, you're laying a buck fifty in that contest.
We're seeing a little bit of money come for KC
as we speak right now. If you're looking at the
wager Talk free live odd screen down to one forty
five at some of the leading indicator books. So we
are seeing a little bit of Kansas City money. But
my question is not with the Yankees the better of
(28:38):
the two teams. They are, but in a matchup where
Cole got hit the first time, Casey's bullpens every bit
as good as the Yankees is, and Aaron Judge isn't hitting,
I just wonder if this price is right in this
a bit of a premium that you're laying with the
Yankees tonight, or do you think the value is still there?
Speaker 5 (28:56):
It's a little bit of a price, but you know
the other ways you could play this, Teddy, of course,
is the line you're getting plus money minus one and
a half. My concerned there though, as I mentioned is
that the offense hasn't been explosive. Another option you could
do is to make a minus one run line. A
lot of books have that now, but it's the late
great Dave Cocin used to point out. You can make
your own minus one run line by putting half your
play on the money line, half your play on the
(29:17):
minus one and a half, and at minus one fifty
plus one ten, that would make it minus one minus
one twenty. So that's all another option here to get
that price down a little bit and also make sure
that that half run doesn't beat you with the minus
one and a half. So minus one minus one twenty
run line is also a way to approach this. And
the thing about baseball, which is different than football, is
that you know if they win, the price doesn't matter now.
(29:39):
Long term, it obviously does, and I'm very conscious of it,
and that's one of the reasons I've done so well
in baseball over the years is that I don't lay
inflated prices. But I do think the Yankees win this
game tonight, you might be paying a premium, but when
they get that w it's not gonna end up mattering.
Speaker 1 (29:53):
Steve Merrill joining us everyone, Steve, let's turn our engine
to some college football. Penn State at usc.
Speaker 5 (30:06):
Oh.
Speaker 1 (30:06):
You heard from the Penn State coach yesterday, blah blah blah.
The travel schedule sucks, anyway, who cares? How do we
bet this game?
Speaker 5 (30:15):
Very interesting travel matchup here. And one thing I've been
fascinated by with the new college football landscape is these
new conference realignments just lead to some crazy travel situations.
We see a lot of these ACC teams like Cal
going to the East coast this season, but now some
of these Big Ten teams are gonna have to travel
coast to coast, and Penn State is doing that here
in this situation.
Speaker 2 (30:35):
Now.
Speaker 5 (30:36):
It always catches my eye when a team is playing
their first road game of the season late, like five
six games in in October. Technically that doesn't apply here
because of course Penn State already had one road game
this season against West Virginia. But this is the first
real true road trip, obviously, and it is a cross
country trip. And after being at home now for over
a month straight. That West Virginia game, by the way,
it was August thirty first, a short little trip form
(31:00):
home for four straight games the entire month of September
into October having traveled at all in over a month
and a half. So I do think the travel situation
is real here, and the fact that the coach is
complaining about it kind of tells you that as well.
I run ten thousand simulations for every FBS game every week,
and I get an average victory margin, and it's really
a good starting point for games I want to kind
of make my short list, and this one does qualify here.
(31:22):
In fact, my ten thousand game simulation on average it
as a pick them has Penn State winning by point two,
so it's a toss up. It's a tie game. There
is line value with USC at plus five. I like
the scheduling situation as well, So the question becomes is
USC a team we could trust? I think it is.
I know they're coming off a disappointing loss against Minnesota.
It's their second loss in three games, devastating loss probably
(31:45):
for their national title hopes, to say the least. That
is normally a letdown concern. But the fact that they're
bringing in the number four team in the nation Penn
State here, I think they come focused. We saw the
Washington Huskies in a very focused spot last week. I
use that as a best bet for my clients as
part of a three and zero sweep last Saturday. By
the way, college football has been just crushing it this year,
(32:05):
right number one this season in college football. It has
just been a fantastic run. And the simulation works well.
When we get line value and we get the situational
analysis to back it up, it's a game that's worth considering.
I think that all works here. Always a concern with
the USC defense. This is a defense that was atrocious
last year, but then they look pretty good obviously in
that opener against LSU. I still think there may be
(32:26):
average at best this year, but the offense is explosive.
They're averaging number five yards of carry almost seven yards
of pass. Now, their passive attack has not been as
good as in year's pass, but the running game is
pretty solid and I do think they can somewhat control
the clock. And the other thing I want to point
out about Penn State and Franklin the Company is that
they have a tendency to be bullies. They beat up
on the weaker teams, cover big as favorites, but sometimes
(32:49):
not as good when stepping up in class. And I
do think this is a step up in class. I
know they're technically a favorite here, but I make the
game a pick them and the scheduleing spot. On top
of that, take a look at USC plus five. Think
there's some value with them, and they're a live dog
on this Saturday afternoon.
Speaker 2 (33:04):
So I'm going to ask you this.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
I'm interesting the total in this game, and so far
we've seen pretty much every sharp dollar come on the over.
We saw forty eight, forty eight and a half at
the open, there were a couple forty nine's. Now I'm
seeing fifty and a half and fifty ones and those
are the leading indicator books who tells us that the
sharp money has clearly come for.
Speaker 2 (33:22):
The over in this game. You agree with that assessment
or disagree?
Speaker 5 (33:27):
Yeah, tell you it's no question the sharp money's on
the over. I'm glad you pointed that out. It's moved
up and it's crossing that key number of fifty one
almost So for people out there don't know key number
in totals we talk, thirty seven, forty one and fifty
one would be the three.
Speaker 2 (33:39):
That come to mind.
Speaker 5 (33:40):
I do agree with the move. As I mentioned earlier,
I'm not sold on that USC defense still, but I
think the offense is pretty good. And keep in mind
last year USC was just a pure overplay for most
of the season for that reason, and also this is
a step up in class for the Penn State defense.
Overall this season, they've given up just four yards per play,
just eleven points a game, but they haven't faced an
offense like USC, and I think that's another reason we've
(34:02):
seen some money coming on the over I mean so
far faced Bowling Green, Kent State, Illinois, and then Ucla
last week. I mean, Ucla is really struggling offensively as well.
So I do like to step up in class. That's
one of the reasons I like USC, and I definitely
would not disagree with the over steve.
Speaker 1 (34:18):
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Speaker 5 (34:25):
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two seasons. Entering this year, I was number one in
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Speaker 1 (36:02):
Steve Merril, Everyone Teddy Covers. Wow, Hey, I wasted a
lot of time with the coldplay tragically hip conversation. So
we're gonna do your big game breakdown and then a
lot of the people in the chat room want to
hear are thoughts on Dallas and Detroit. So let's do
your big game breakdown first. I already have my follow
up question planned.
Speaker 3 (36:24):
Go big Game breakdown. Let's talk about the Packers and
the Cardinals. Right now, looking at the free wait you
Talk live odd screen Green Bay minus five. At most books,
there is some vary ANSWER's a four and a half
and a five and a half out there, but we'll
call five the prevailing number as we speak, total sitting
(36:45):
forty seven slash forty seven and a half. There's two
reasons why I can't play the Packers right now, really
three reasons why I can't play the pack in this game.
First and foremost, you can't lay points in the NFL
this year, all right, We've seen the favorites of what
five are are higher covered of what a twenty percent clip.
(37:06):
So I am absolutely at this stage heading into Week
six bias towards underdogs a plus five or higher unless
I've got a good reason to lay it with the favorite.
Parody's been the play and we're expecting more of the same.
So that's factor one, as the league wide trend has
been very clearly, don't lay points against decent teams.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
Factor number two. Strength of schedule.
Speaker 3 (37:33):
Wise, the Packers have faced the Rams, they've had Tennessee,
they've had Indy, they've had Philly. You know, I guess
their toughest opponent was Minnesota, Cardial, the face San fran Washington, Detroit, Buffalo.
They've had the tougher schedule. So who's battle tested. It's
Arizona Packers. Five games for them have been decided by
(37:53):
less than a touchdown. The highest point spread covered was
minus three last week against LA and they only covered
that thanks to a two point conversion.
Speaker 2 (38:02):
You know one other factor here worth considering.
Speaker 3 (38:05):
I forget how anything out that three points, two points,
I don't know, I'm going on and on, but you know,
Arizona's number nine the red zone touchdown percentage. They're scoring
touchdowns when they have the opportunity. Green Bay's non number eighteen. Defensively,
they're both in the same place, so there's no advantage
for either squad, but Arizona's been better at executing in
the red zone.
Speaker 2 (38:25):
Bottom line, the green Bay leads the NFL and takeaways.
Speaker 3 (38:28):
They have fourteen takeaways in the first five games. And
we know that defensive creat takeaways can continue to create takeaways,
but we do not expect teams to live and die
by positive turnover deferential week after week after week. I
think green Bay may be a little bit overvalued. As
a result, there's been sharp money for the dog. They
took out the plus sixes. I can understand why Arizona
(38:50):
or pass for this better and again use coupon code
Teddy three six five and get every play every day
for the next three hundred and sixty five days for
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(39:11):
five at check out. This offer expires on Monday after
Monday Night Football. Do not delay if you want to
get on board, Lawrence.
Speaker 1 (39:20):
Teddy, I listen. I'm going to tell you right off
the bat that I'm with you on this bet. I
like Arizona here too, but I'm not getting to the window.
And here is why, and this is my follow up
question and why it was relevant to whatever you said.
Why would you bet on a team or against a team?
Just bet a game that has a team that can
(39:43):
put up forty one points one week thirteen the next fourteen,
one week twenty four to the next. Why would you
be involved in a game where a defense can hold
a team to ten points one week, forty two points
the next. The inc consistency of this Arizona team lends
(40:04):
me to just stay away.
Speaker 3 (40:07):
So I'll answer that question. And in fact, it's a
great question in one sense. As a better the number
one thing I love is an inconsistent team.
Speaker 2 (40:20):
That I've got to read on. Ah, that's what I love,
because the market's like, I don't.
Speaker 3 (40:27):
Know what to do with this team, and you're like, no,
they played good this week, They're gonna play bad next week.
They match up well against this opponent, they don't match
up well against that opponent. As a handicapper, I don't
mind the inconsistent teams when you.
Speaker 2 (40:37):
Can get a read on.
Speaker 3 (40:40):
Can't say I love Arizona off a win, but certainly
the game against the Rams that was as strong an
Arizona spot as you'll see ever, you know, uh, And
then the loss to Washington was about as bad as
they can play. You know, they are an inconsistent team.
That said, they've gone on the highway, and they competed
at Buffet Low and at San Francisco, so we've seen
(41:02):
them go on the road and play well twice, you know,
or play reasonally. I mean, the two middle quarters of
that Buffalo game weren't pretty, but they got the money
in that contest.
Speaker 2 (41:12):
They got it to the hot start. But the bottom
line is.
Speaker 3 (41:16):
The teams that aren't consistent, our job is to figure
out why and what games they are likely or less
likely to step up in and to me, that's the
reason to get involved with any team that's inconsistent.
Speaker 2 (41:29):
I love it.
Speaker 3 (41:30):
You know again, when the markets don't have a read
on a team and you do advantage you.
Speaker 1 (41:36):
I love it. Great answer, Teddy, And if way to
have a read on a team that doesn't even have
a read on itself, that's impressive stuff. Bro Okay, guys,
real quick. I got a play going tonight in the
NFL and two NHL plays. What do you got going, Teddy?
Speaker 3 (41:55):
I have a single best bet in MLB and MLBS.
The players have been real good man. I think I've
won four in a row, mining seventy one percent playoff run.
I'm riding an eighty eight percent all sports run in today.
We're running pretty good so far. This month, we'll see
we can keep it going for the single best bet tonight.
You want to talk about the Cowboys and the Lions, Lawrence,
(42:16):
I do the way you're coming live on screen right now.
Speaker 2 (42:19):
I see Detroit minus three. There are some shops you
have to lay a little.
Speaker 3 (42:22):
Bit of juice minus fifteen, minus twenty total fifty two
pretty much across the board.
Speaker 2 (42:28):
How do you break it down? Dallas and Detroit?
Speaker 1 (42:31):
So for me, Teddy. I'm really looking at the over
here and look we go through this time and time again.
Oh my god, it's so high. Bet the highest totals
over the lowest totals under. I look at this game
as a fifty two and I think, to myself, Okay,
Dallas and Detroit both top five offenses last year. Now
is last year relevant relevant? It is to me because
(42:54):
they're really rolling out a very similar offense. And I
don't think we've seen Dallas get going at all. Right now,
with that said, they put up twenty against Pittsburgh, but
that twenty could have been thirty plus. They went into
the red zone three times. They came away with nothing
on those three trips. Now, obviously one will say, well
they shot themselves in the foot. They're not turning the
(43:15):
ball over three times in the red zone at home
on that fast track against the Detroit Lions. Both defenses
are middle of the pack. Dallas is going to have
no pass rush, leaving golf to throw all day long.
Mic is still out, Lawrence is still out. Their secondary
is mediocre. I think Detroit's defense is medium at best.
(43:37):
And I look at this game and I say, one
of these teams gets into the thirties. This game goes
over the total of fifty two. I think both teams
can get into the thirties. I think we can see
a thirty four to thirty one type game, which is
like twelve over the total of fifty two. I love
that it's on a fast track. I love that Detroit
just came off of a big offensive out pouring against Seattle.
(44:00):
And I like the Dallas moved the ball up and
down the field on Pittsburgh last week. I like the
over here, Teddy, what about you?
Speaker 2 (44:08):
Well, the Choy's coming off of buye.
Speaker 3 (44:09):
They're not coming off Seattle, so we know what's a
It's a huge difference.
Speaker 1 (44:14):
Why you willing my over better? It makes the over
better that they're coming off of a buye from my perspective, Okay,
because I want why Because I want to play to
the definition of the teams. Detroit is a team that
I think will go over more than under. I think
they've defined themselves as a high scoring team. Now they've
(44:35):
had an extra week to work on what they do best,
which is score points.
Speaker 3 (44:41):
Well, I mean, the Lions had scored twenty sixteen and
twenty six in the three weeks prior to Seattle. I'm
doing my an ounce of the game. I got a
minute to do it, and I'm not playing the game.
Let me start with this. I'm just giving press trouble.
I'm not playing the side. I'm not playing the total.
If I had to play the side, I would played
Detroit because I think the Detroit's the better of these
two teams.
Speaker 1 (44:59):
Agreed the.
Speaker 3 (45:02):
It's not really necessarily that close. But I'm a little
reluctant to play Dallas over right now.
Speaker 2 (45:09):
The offense is not clicking on all cylinders. We saw
that in the Saints game. We saw that in the
Steelers game. We saw that in the Giants game.
Speaker 3 (45:17):
The talent level might be there, but the offensive line
play isn't for Dallas, and I think that'll be a
problem against Detroit. So slight lean here towards the Lions,
but nothing I'm likely to get to the windows, certainly
not at minus three. If we see two and a half,
maybe I'll get involved. But we're not going to see
a two and a half on this game, which I'm
with I will be passing.
Speaker 1 (45:36):
I'm totally with you. I agree on that side. Jessica
asked if I like the under in the Florida Ottawa
game in NHL. Yes, I do, Jessica And if you
guys want to know my five NHL picks in my
penalty box segment, head over to wager Talk TV check
out the Penalty Box segment. No presidential address today, as
(45:58):
we did some NFL A red Teddy, good luck tonight,
have fun. I will see all of you guys on Tuesday.
Be well, everybody, Teddy take us home.
Speaker 2 (46:08):
Sure.
Speaker 3 (46:09):
Thank you so much, really for taking part out of
your busy day, taking time out of your busy day,
taking part of your busy day to hang out with
us on.
Speaker 2 (46:15):
Way You Talk Today. We appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (46:17):
We appreciate the likes, We appreciate the follows, We appreciate
the comments very much. Best of luck, whatever sport your
betting to night. There's a bunch of them and we'll
see you guys tomorrow with another edition of Where You
Talk Today.
Speaker 2 (46:29):
Cheers,
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