May 19, 2025 • 44 mins
On Monday's edition of WagerTalk Today, Bill Krackomberger & Bryan Leonard share insights for today's MLB action. Andy Lang provides props for today and Gianni The Greek gives daily betting advice – don't miss out!
Gianni the Greek Weekend Recap 00:30
MLB Betting Steam for Monday 04:40
Portnoy's "Big Bet" 7:40
Gianni on Social Media being BS 10:00
Andy All Around the World Free Picks 14:35
Bill Krackman: Weekend Recap 17:45
Where do you bet your MLB Props? 18:40
MLB Prop Play 19:39
Average Bet Size/Bearding 20:20
Krack on Portnoy's Big Bet 25:30
Bryan Leonard's 14-1 Run 32:00
Reds vs Pirates 33:40
Royals vs Giants 36:00
Andy's Bankroll Reset 42:28
Gianni the Greek Weekend Recap 00:30
MLB Betting Steam for Monday 04:40
Portnoy's "Big Bet" 7:40
Gianni on Social Media being BS 10:00
Andy All Around the World Free Picks 14:35
Bill Krackman: Weekend Recap 17:45
Where do you bet your MLB Props? 18:40
MLB Prop Play 19:39
Average Bet Size/Bearding 20:20
Krack on Portnoy's Big Bet 25:30
Bryan Leonard's 14-1 Run 32:00
Reds vs Pirates 33:40
Royals vs Giants 36:00
Andy's Bankroll Reset 42:28
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
You are welcome everyone to the best sports gambling show
on the planet. This is a Wager Talk Today. I'm
your host, Andy, and it's Monday. It's a new week, guys,
new opportunities, new weeks. Myself and clients are coming off
a winning week, and that's the goal every week. Try
to bring in some profits. Time to reset, time to refocus.
Let's get this new week started off on the right way.
(00:22):
Let's keep building, let's keep cashing, let's keep learning. Geohnny's
gonna join us, tell us where the sharp money is,
and I have We're gonna talk social media with Jiohnny.
Something came up over the weekend that I have to
talk about with Johnny. I'm also probably gonna bring it
up with Crackman. Crackman's gonna come on and talk MLB,
and then we're gonna talk with Brian Leonard. We had
to have Brian Leonard on the show today. That man
(00:43):
is fourteen and one in his last seven days. It's
an insane run. So we're gonna have Brian Leonard on.
We're gonna talk to him about his streak. He's gonna
break down a couple of MLB games for us, so
we're gonna bring Giohnny in, but guys, hit the like button.
You guys know what to do. We're gonna try and
get to one hundred likes before the end of the show.
As making one hundred and five. Let's up just a
little bite hundred and five likes and really, guys, subscribe
to the channel. There's so much great content on the
(01:05):
wager Talk channel. Go ahead and subscribe to the channel.
You get notified when all of these videos get released.
You get notified when we go live a wager Talk today.
So subscribe to the channel. Hit the like button. Let's
not waste any more time. Let's talk to Gianni. Gianni,
I had a nice weekend in MMA, and then I
looked at you and I was like, oh, Johnny had
(01:25):
a really nice UFC weekend. Congratulations man, five four percent
past night's work.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Thank you, brother. Shout out to block, Welcome to the party,
my man. Great, great great Saturday and MMA. In fact, Bro,
I hit a nine fighter parlay, a seven fighter parlay,
everything just felt I would have. I swear to god,
Bro I had a parlay that paid a three hundred
dollars parlay that paid twenty five thousand. The only loser
(01:55):
on it was stolefish crazy. What is My girl had
a ten fighter parlay and the only on the other side,
she had the other side to this, stole this fight
and she ends up hitting her parlay. The one fight
got canceled. She had like the comin event, like an
over under, but I lose my twenty five thousand dollars parlay,
but she ends up hitting like a twenty five hundred
(02:16):
dollars parlay because she had the other side of that. Wow,
it was just one of those days where I mean, listen,
all favorites, only one underdog got there. But you still
got to see that, you know what I mean. Like
I was joking with my girl. She's like, oh my god,
I hit this, and she's like, but it's all favorites.
I'm like, yeah, but you saw that you didn't like
any of the dogs except the one dog that you
had on there actually hit for her. So I was
(02:38):
it was this one of those days, man, sometimes it
all falls our way. So a great, great, great day
in MMA, great weekend overall. So yeah, just keep it
going now. Nope, Nope, no NBA today, no NHL today.
It's all about baseball, and that's why I've already been firing.
I rarely have a package up this this early, but
(02:58):
like I said, we've been betting baseball since early in
the morning and already released some place to subscribers.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Yeah, I may or may not have paid off my
mortgage and then someone Michael Morales by finish over Gilbert Burns.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
It was that was people were betting Burns. Morales went
down to like minus three fifty from minus hundred seven
hundred just two days prior.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
I couldn't believe it. I had no idea what everyone
saw in Gilbert Burns. My opinion is Michael Morales is
the next big thing. This is, this is this guy
is a future champion. I can't at.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Twenty four years old. So he's gonna be incrementally getting
better every time you see him, Like every time you
see him's gonna look like a new fighter. Now he's
gaining experience, but more importantly, he's gaining confidence beating big
names like again. And it's true, Burns has seen Morales
one hundred times. He's seen guys with power, he's seen
guys with reach, he's seen younger guys, but he was
(03:56):
able to just destroy them, dude.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
So it just showing you how this kid is.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
You saw quickly he went through Magni and you know,
Magnanie's been a gatekeeper now for a very long time
and he's closed that gate on a lot of up
and coming contenders, you know.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Yeah, but absolutely it's legit.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
He's legit. And Park Park impressed me a lot. The
Asian kid at Flyway. He's going to be a problem.
We know Denise Gomes is going to be a problem
in the ladies, but that kid Park's going to be
a problem.
Speaker 3 (04:25):
Man.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
He's so well rounded. I didn't know he had that
kind of grappling game to go with his power.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
I didn't either. That was that was the big surprise
for me. I didn't expect them to be that good.
But yeah, we learned a lot from there. So on Monday.
We don't have a ton going on right now. There's
no UFC this week and there's no NBA and age.
It doesn't mean there's not a lot of a lot
of ways to profit off of this card or off
of this day. Where's the sharp money at today?
Speaker 2 (04:50):
Yeah, it's all in baseball. And I'll give a three
percent premium too, because it's the first game that goes off.
I sent that out to subscribers. Pittsburgh at plus money.
You know, plus one oh five plus one oh three
is out there. As long as you're getting plus money,
they should be this slight favor in this game. You
see that line move. We also like the over in
that one, but I haven't released that. I did go
(05:12):
give a three percent on Pittsburgh at plus money. I'll
give you a couple more steam plays from the group
that I work with and stuff that I get shared
from other guys that move for different groups. Like I said,
then I see what I agree with and those become
premium plays. But here's some of the lists that I'm
(05:32):
looking at today. I gave you Pittsburgh an over nine
to fifty six, Colorado plus two forty five all the
way down the plus two ten. So he's getting hit
at plus two thirty five plus two twenty five plus
two to fifteen plus two ten. And sometimes I know
it's tough to take those kind of dogs, but anyone
who followed me throughout the weekend on the Angels over
to Dodgers, that was tough to bet. Every single day
(05:54):
you're going up against arguably the best team in Major
League baseball, But the money line becomes the equalizer, just
like the point spread becomes a great equalizer in point
spread sports. And then again plus two hundreds, you got
to win one out of three times just to break even.
And as we talk about all the time, there's not
going to be a single team when the season ends
that wins seventy PERCENTATOR game. There won't be a single
(06:16):
team that wins sixty seven PERCENTATOR games. There will be
one team, maybe two, that are near that sixty five
percent range. So don't be afraid to bet these big dogs.
Another one nine sixty two White Sox plus one seventy five,
one seventy Athletics minus one fifteen minus one twenty minus
one twenty five. And then another dog forty in nine
sixty nine Baltimore plus one fifteen plus one ten, and
(06:39):
the over in that Baltimore game at eight and a half,
and finally nine sixty eight Boston plus one twenty five,
So a lot of plus money. In fact, every play
I gave out so far has been plus money except
the Athletics. So dog day, dog day afternoon, let's hope.
So this evening, all.
Speaker 1 (06:59):
Right, Gionni, We're going to go in a completely different direction.
I was doing our live show UFC and someone brings
up I swear people posting these bet slips on social
media has bankrupted so many betters. And somebody in our
show brings up Dave Portnoy, So Dan, can we pull
this up? I just assumed that people knew this wasn't
(07:23):
real because they're not letting you bet twenty five thousand
dollars on a plus.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
The only way he bet twenty five thousand on that
is if he's down about two and a half million
lifetime to the property. Seriously, if he's down over seven figures,
they will book that bet out of common courtesy so
he doesn't go elsewhere. But otherwise they're not booking it.
(07:49):
There is zero zero hands. They're booking that what. It's
not gonna hunt. There's just not enough risk on the
other side. They can't book the risk on the other side.
It's not going to happen.
Speaker 1 (08:01):
Johnny. I limit myself to two hundred and fifty dollars
on these domestics on props, so I don't get myself limited,
So I have to bet like across a bunch, And
I was stunned at how many people were like look
he won. No, they're not taking that bet. I don't know.
I think it's an epidemic in the worst way, this
(08:23):
posting bet slips and stuff like this on social media.
How do we ignore it? How do we just not
let this focus on it?
Speaker 2 (08:32):
We deserve it, bro, we deserve it. We the market
deserves it. Why because that's going to get all the views,
it's going to get all the likes, when the only
question should be how are you doing in twenty twenty five?
Where are you at in twenty twenty five? I don't
want to. I don't give a shit about your bet
last night? What do you How are you doing this year?
(08:52):
How did you do last year? How'd you do the
year before? You you're a guy that bets every day,
you talk about bet gambling. You obviously file taxes. You
know how you've done that? Tell show us, though, if
you're gonna show us the slips and you're gonna promote
because that's what you're pushing, you're promoting big winning bets,
(09:14):
then you gotta zoom out that that's and it's we
the market don't demand it. That's the problem. We follow
these influencers that show this bullshit lifestyle that doesn't exist
for anybody. And they definitely didn't make their money by
beating the books that much. I can promise you they're
not betting those figures because they're they're they're up all
(09:34):
this money on the books or anything like that. But again,
it's social media. It's a fake world, just like you know,
Instagram and Twitter and all of those. It's just a
fake reality. It's not reality. And not only has that
destroyed people mentally, it's the most depressed. I mean, this
is the most prosperous the world has ever been, and
(09:55):
yet it's also the most depressed and the highest rate
of people on antidepressants in the history of mankind. And
what does that? It's social media? Why, because you're comparing
your life to bullshit, to fakeness like that. Yeah, you
can't win. You can't win. That's why the divorce rate
is high. That's why people cheat that because they think
(10:17):
they have options. They think there's this fake like reality
that doesn't exist for anybody. I'm telling you, like, no,
everybody's just showing their best life, you know what I mean, Like,
no one's showing the reality of a real life. They're
just showing clips and most of it is fake. Most
of it is skits, you know what I mean. It's
(10:38):
just not real life, bro. But unfortunately, this is what
we're consuming every single day, and we're all myself included,
we're all brainwashed because that's what we do. We compare
our lives to what we see on the screen, and
you're never going to win. You can't win. The Internet's
undefeated and that lifestyle being portrayed is the exact same way.
And I think it's done the worst thing for society.
(11:00):
And of course it's going to do it in in
micro also not just the macro, which is the world,
but it's doing it in separate market. Look at sports betting,
it's destroyed. We thought the industry was bad when people
were lying about their results and selling you know, one
nine hundred numbers. This is that that was nothing compared
to the stuff that's going on scamming. These young kids
(11:20):
that are coming in like they're they're they're seeing a
reality that doesn't exist. Andy it does not exist, like
they're there. There's they're starting from so far behind the
eight ball because they're they're creating this reality that's never
going to be attainable. Just like you can't attain that
reality in real life. You can't attain it in sports betting,
Like you're not gonna win at those kind of crazy rates.
(11:42):
You're not gonna like make get rich placing those same
game eight player parlays and you know, eight game parlays
and that they're sad.
Speaker 1 (11:53):
I'm gonna do my week recap at the end of
the show and we're up like three units, and that's
just not sexy. That that's not that's not getting a
lot of clicks on social media. But guess what the
reality that's how you build.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Three a week? Are you kidding me? That's one hundred
and fifty units at the end of a year, coming
up one hundred and fifty and it's at the end
of the years is are you dude again? What world
are we living in?
Speaker 3 (12:17):
That?
Speaker 2 (12:17):
That's not impressive.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
I did the math on this. If you start with
a thousand dollars and you make three units a week
in four years, we'll have a million without depositing any
money money into it, if you just do if you
just do three three a week. So yeah, it was interesting.
I was I was stunned how many people thought thought
it was real and it just really kind of stunned
me and opened my eyes to Wow, this is this
(12:39):
is what we're fighting like, you know, we try to
talk about our wins and our losses, and this is
what we're we're up against. So yeah, it's it's it's
big on the mindset. So appreciate that that that commentary, Johnny,
because I just I when I heard that, I was like,
I have to ask Johnny about this. I have to
ask Johnny about this.
Speaker 2 (12:55):
Yeah, it's just nonsense, bro. I live in the real world.
I see that the few people out here that actually
make their living betting sports. That ain't it?
Speaker 1 (13:03):
Ain't I know, I know. Well, I got a lot
of topics talk about this week. We got some really
really good ones. I can't wait. Crush it, brother, Yeah,
absolutely tell her.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
On what you have up at wager Talk already. Uh,
the major League package. I'm going to put everything in there. Again,
we're not going heavy volume, but baseball is the only
sport we're gonna betting today. Multiple four percent best bets
in there still number one overall in the baseball season,
up in Major League Baseball, and up in baseball overall,
along with the college and sometimes those triple a's that
(13:33):
come at us. So yeah, let's start the week off winning,
coming off a nice, nice couple of days, and uh
up for the year. That's where we want to be.
Let's just keep going. Tomorrows the second to the last
class of blackjack. So if you signed up for the year,
I know a couple guys jumped on this weekend, make
sure you get the other seven classes. Johnny's and wager
(13:55):
Talk is handling that really well to make sure everybody
has access to that information. So looking forward to tomors
second to last class.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
Awesome stuff, Jiohnny, Thank you so much, brother, I always
love talking to you. Have a great Monday. All around
the world. We do some free plays. A lot of
these are on the free picks page at wager Talk.
So if you want to see some of the plays
that the Haiti Capper's up, maybe it put you in
the right direction. We got a few of them here.
So Dan, let's take a trip. We got a new graphic. Yeah, yes,
(14:28):
I love this. We're going all around the world, guys.
Let's take a look at the Mariners minus one and
a half over the White Sox. Mariners just swept San Diego.
White Sox were just swept by the Cubs. They did
not score more than three runs in any game. Castillo
going for Seattle, allowed one run or none and three
of his last four starts. Take a look at a player.
Prop Brandon fought over four and a half strikeouts twenty
(14:49):
three strikeouts and eighteen innings against the Dodgers over this
total in ten out of his last fifteen starts. Let's
go to the WNBA Seattle Storm under eighty four and
a half on the team total. They only scored fifty
nine points in the first game, three of seventeen from threes.
Pretty slow place of pay, slow pace of play. They
played the Wings. The Wings gave up ninety nine in
(15:09):
their first game, but that was against the Links, and
the Links are really good. So Mariners minus one and
a half fought over four and a half strikeouts in
Seattle Storm under team total. That is your all around
the world. We're still running the same specials we were
running last week. Guys, three days for forty nine dollars.
I know a lot of you got our three day
special on Friday. That worked out really well because mostly
because of what we did in MMA. Pick any handicapper
(15:32):
you get three days discounted down to forty nine dollars.
If you're interested in more long term results, we do
have the year special that is still up eight hundred
and eleven dollars discounted immediately, and you get that twenty
five percent coupon that goes for any package, any play,
for any other handicapper for the duration of those three
(15:52):
hundred and sixty five days. I'm actually meeting up with
somebody on Thursday to talk about long term investing and
we're gonna get him set up with that. So it's
things like Johnny and I talked about, like this is
a business and the way you do it is investing
long term and grinding out these three units per week.
So if you want to take advantage of that, I
would encourage everyone to jump on board over at the
Deal's page, over at wager Talk, and again like the video, guys,
(16:16):
we're creeping up on the likes and subscribe to the channel.
Really trying to work on getting as many people subscribe
so that way you guys get notified when all these
videos come out. So take advantage of everything. And it's
tennis time for us. The French Open is right around
the corner. This is where we do damage. You guys
have been following us. You know, Corbin crushes tennis. He's
(16:38):
the tennis department at our team. The winning in the
shadows and the majors, it's where he does all his damage.
So we're doing a thirty day tennis special. It's gonna
be discounted twenty bucks. You're gonna get all plays for
thirty for thirty days, and that includes the French Open.
That's what we're gearing up for. One hundred and seventy
six units lifetime and last year's Majors he went forty
(16:59):
nine and twenty six for plus twenty four units just
in the four major. So this is a big, big
source of building our bank roll. I'm a flatbatter. I
bet more on Corbyn's tennis plays, so take advantage of that.
The qualifications are this week and then it starts on Sunday,
I believe, so take advantage of that. Tennis is where
we do a lot of damage. He's up over forty
(17:20):
units this year alone in tennis, so you can grab
that WT dot buzz slash a l. All right, let's
bring in Bill crack Man. We're gonna talk a little
MLB and We're also gonna talk a little bit of props. Bill.
Hope you had a great weekend, sir. How are you doing.
Speaker 4 (17:37):
Yeah, I had a really good weekend. I had a
really good week. Actually.
Speaker 3 (17:42):
You know, Major League Baseball started out a little bit
slower this year, but this past week now, I mean
we're twenty and six in last twenty on six plays,
so well, you know when in twenty out of twenty
six is a nice nice way to get this Major
League Baseball off the schneide. And uh, of course I
(18:03):
look forward to uh that continued success there, but I'm
also betting some other things like golf and and looking
forward to uh NBA props still where we're still going
strong with them major League Baseball props.
Speaker 4 (18:18):
But yeah, things are going well, all right, anythings.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
Yeah, yeah, all right. Uh looking at looking at any
MLB props for today, a thing jump off the page
for you. Yeah, you know.
Speaker 4 (18:28):
And that's another thing too.
Speaker 3 (18:30):
You know you could go to you can go to
all these different sites now, and what a difference. Because
someone made a someone asked me something and he said,
he said, hey, you know, where are you getting these
Major League Baseball props? Let me just tell you living
here in Las Vegas or anywhere in the country. Now
you have fandos and DraftKings and all over the country,
(18:50):
bet MGMs, you have Caesar's brand, West cath put some
propre There's a lot of places now that are putting
these Major League Baseball props up. So uh, today I'm
looking at the Phillies starting pitcher A Christopher Sanchez. I'm
going with over five and a half strikeouts for him. Uh.
Speaker 4 (19:09):
For for a few reasons though.
Speaker 3 (19:11):
One, he has the best strikeout rate so far, that one.
Speaker 4 (19:16):
Of the best this season twenty nine.
Speaker 3 (19:18):
Secondly, he is up against the Rockies lineup today, who
has been terrible this season against lefties. They had the
second highest strikeout rate this season against south pass. I
know the Rockies are playing a little bit better as
of late, but and you know they have to return
to the mean a little bit. They were, you know,
they were stuck at like six wins for a while,
worst of him in baseball. So but today we are
(19:41):
going with the over Sanchez over five and a half strikeouts.
That's good to about a buck sixty five, or you
can even take over six and a half at plus
one twenty five or better.
Speaker 1 (19:52):
I love it. You and I have a passion for
for betting props. It's where I do pretty much all
of my damage. I love the NBA, NH And you know,
I remember when I first started doing props at Wager
talking was kind of under the radar a little bit.
Not not so much anymore. You like, like you mentioned,
you can you can get a lot down on props.
(20:13):
I used to not be able to bet a whole lot.
I really didn't, and now it's they're kind of available everywhere.
Have you seen the evolution of prop betting?
Speaker 3 (20:22):
You know the average first of all, the average bet
in this country is actually under one hundred dollars.
Speaker 4 (20:28):
So it's not like.
Speaker 3 (20:29):
You or I or you know, I'm trying to get
down as much money as I can on player props.
So here in Vegas I have like Westgates Circa and
let me be blunts. I've run out of many sportsbooks
like Stations and Caesars for using my brain. So but
but they can't stop me. I'm always going to beard
back in. I mean, I always tell them how silly
of this, But those places that throw me out for winning,
(20:52):
but winning on props also, But I like the NFL
season two where it's a little bit more. I UNDERSTANDL
season has a lot more money in the market, so
kind of the risk managers maybe don't look so much
to the props and say, oh my god, these guys
are killing us because there's not so many like literally
microscopes on your account store in the NFL when the
(21:13):
public is just given them sports books, money, the player props,
even team props over under punch, shortest touchdown scored. In
the NBA and Major League Baseball, I mostly stick to
the player props. They're the ones I actually do want
to play and want to get down on picture props
like I just gave you in Major League Baseball, I
(21:34):
look at their recent form, their velocity and the spin rate.
Believe it or not too it's something we look at
it kind of like I always tell people, you don't
have to worry about that. Don't even get in that.
It's a little bit analytical detailed. Leave that to us
and we'll just give you the play.
Speaker 4 (21:49):
Is it a great They can.
Speaker 3 (21:50):
Work forty fifty hours a weekend off another research. Leave
that the guys like me and you, and it's just
you know, look at their line up facing into account
when to look at these pictures, like, there's so many
different things you put into it. You don't just say,
oh I like that picture. He strikes out a lot
of people. Let's put that up. No, there's a lot
(22:10):
more that go into it. And it's it's you know,
it's it's interesting how we have evolved. I've been doing this,
you know, almost thirty years professionally, and I see that
from back then to now, literally nobody had props up.
Speaker 4 (22:24):
Now it's a daily thing.
Speaker 3 (22:26):
You know.
Speaker 4 (22:27):
Bet MGM is one of the.
Speaker 3 (22:28):
Sponsors of My My Big Fox Show on the weekend.
And I cannot believe. I was just telling the director
or risk they had one hundred and fifty different ways
to bet the basketball game yesterday.
Speaker 4 (22:40):
Oh ye, I mean that's unbelievable, that's crazy.
Speaker 3 (22:44):
It's I counted them up one hundred and fifty different
kind of bets for NBA game, you know, most of
them being props.
Speaker 4 (22:49):
And I like them.
Speaker 3 (22:51):
It into two way markets too, like you know, not
just I don't like when sportsbook just puts up one
way because that means it's a giant hold. So I
like to be I like betting season wins as they
get adjusted every every week, baseball season wins as they
get adjusted MGM, Caesars, DraftKings, Fandel, they all do them.
So but like I said, the average bet is like
(23:12):
one hundred dollars in this car under one hundred actually,
So people can get down on these props, and you
can get down on these baseball props and NFL props
when we get into it where I myself have a
little bit harder at the time, so I don't front
run customers.
Speaker 4 (23:27):
I'm going to put up an obtainable line at all times.
Speaker 3 (23:31):
And you know, I'm going to talk from a from
a serious standpoint, not like what you and Gianni were
just talking about. These people on social media, these kids
that are impressed by, you know, having a nice hot
girl on your on your arm and a beautiful car,
and anyone could have that fagezy stuff, and trust me,
that is faghezi stuff.
Speaker 1 (23:53):
You've been on a nice run in MLB, have you
you been, like riding a couple certain teams or trends,
what's been what's been working for though?
Speaker 3 (24:01):
You know it's funny I almost spot out there. I'm
not a trend guy. If I had to pick a
sport that would be trendy, it would be baseball. But
I am not a trend guy. I don't go by trends.
Especially you see these handicappers say, oh, this team over
the last seven seasons in this situation, you know they're
(24:23):
thirteen and one. Well, I don't care about the situations
with squads that weren't even the same teams over the
last six seasons. I want to know about this season.
I want to know what's going on now. So, but
that's what happens with. You know, all these networks, ESPN
and all the networks, they're full of fluff. They have
nothing else to talk about. They can't talk about real
(24:45):
information because they don't have it. They're not winning sports betters.
They may give out games and give out things, and
that goes for everyone. You think you guys are talking
about Portnoy before listen. I know he does a lot
good for the community, and he's in there and he
helps pizza people out. He pays them, helps them out,
I mean, you know, to get them money. And I
(25:06):
know he helps their their businesses out because he promotes them. Then,
but I want to tell you something.
Speaker 4 (25:10):
Though, he's not a winning gambler.
Speaker 3 (25:12):
And of course, by the way, those bets are real.
Those bets are absolutely real.
Speaker 2 (25:17):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (25:17):
DraftKings is taking his bets absolutely and why A yes,
long term he's a losing gambler, even though he's actually
on a little bit of a run here in the
past six months. I'm hearing b and more importantly, the
more important thing this should be a of.
Speaker 4 (25:34):
Course they're going to take those bets in there. He
puts so.
Speaker 3 (25:37):
Many stoolies, yes too into DraftKings. You know, do you
know the hold of a barstool customer compared to Joe Public.
Let's let's start with this. In Las Vegas, the hold
is about six percent of the customer the money that's
bets through the counter that sometimes less monthly, Let's let's
(25:57):
use six percent. Six percent the at a New Jersey's
about ten percent. Now you go over to the barstool
guys that bet, oh my god, bombs over Tokyo, twenty
percent of the money that goes through the counter and
I mean through the apps are kept of the barstool crowd.
Speaker 4 (26:19):
You know.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
Of course DraftKings is gonna give him anything he wants.
Speaker 4 (26:22):
Of course they're gonna throw anything. He says.
Speaker 3 (26:25):
They're the highest rate over three times the hold of
a Las Vegas customer, the barstool.
Speaker 4 (26:31):
Guys, so you tell amaze their intelligence.
Speaker 1 (26:34):
Level amazing, amazing. Bill, Thank you so much for all
your knowledge and your wisdom. I can't wait to meet
up with you in person next time I'm in Vegas. Man,
I wanted to pick your brain about a lot and
I got to tell you. Did you happen to catch
that ESPN BET Golf show this weekend at the PGA Championship.
It was really good. They did a great job with it.
Speaker 4 (26:57):
It was it was great.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
I couldn't believe it.
Speaker 2 (26:59):
It was.
Speaker 1 (27:00):
It was on ESPN. Plus it was funny, it was,
it was. It was entertaining, of course they all lost.
Speaker 4 (27:06):
But.
Speaker 3 (27:09):
Relatable, entertaining, funny that that's that's really important. But as
long as the people are watching know that, you know,
they've killed more people than many diseases, then that's then
that's fine. But you know, and I'm you know, I
have to tell you, I'm not trying to down ESPN
and everything.
Speaker 4 (27:27):
It is what it is.
Speaker 3 (27:28):
And you know, I know a lot of those people
on there too. They're they're actually nice people, some of them,
but you know, they're they're long term they're there. Nobody's winning.
No one's actually winning betting that stuff. But hey, if
it's fun, Uh, there's a price on being entertained.
Speaker 4 (27:42):
So you want to have fun with it and.
Speaker 3 (27:44):
Be entertained, that's great. If you want winners, you come
over here and you join us for the winners. So money, money, literally,
money is everything when it comes to a life, and
you know, I say everything. It's people always say money
is not everything. Well most of those peop we'll say
that because they don't have any And I'm not trying
to be a jerk enough. I'm just saying money. Of course,
(28:05):
it can't help everything in life, I understand, but I'll
tell you what it certainly helps most. So absolutely anyway,
as long as people have fun and watch that stuff,
just know you're being entertained this stuff.
Speaker 4 (28:17):
You know.
Speaker 3 (28:18):
Listen, I have a little I have a little beef
against ESPN. They fired my best friend, so, they fired
Teddy Atlas, they fired Howie Schwab years ago.
Speaker 4 (28:26):
These guys are guys that were my guys.
Speaker 3 (28:28):
So and then they want to say, oh, poor Howie,
I'm so sorry passed and our steam colleague, Yeah, give
it a break.
Speaker 4 (28:35):
The SPN that's what I feel about you guys.
Speaker 1 (28:38):
Bill, tell her what you have up at wager Talking True.
Speaker 3 (28:40):
Jim, Yeah, you know, let's go to the Let's go
to the site, because I always say about how bad
I am promoting myself here to top rated Major League
Baseball strikeout props and over sixty two percent so far
this season on these eleven and three run in the
past prop nineteen and five run on Baseball on Way
Talk Major League Baseball pitching props this season going thirty
(29:03):
eight twenty three so far. Looks like we've got some
things up there, two picture props up, some other things.
Speaker 4 (29:09):
You know, we loves.
Speaker 3 (29:10):
I know it's tough for people to join for a
whole season. Now you think now or in May, why
are you going to sign up for whole season?
Speaker 4 (29:18):
Well, I wager talk.
Speaker 3 (29:19):
They got it's probably my beef with them. They put
up some things for me for the season. They're giving
away some unbelievable deals over on wager talk dot com.
You can just click on my link, click on my bio,
and they're really giving really good deals on my season stuff.
And you can buy right now through the end of
the NFL season for about one third of what the
(29:41):
price is going to become NFL season. That includes all
my preseason, all my NFL props. Never had a losing
NFL season. That's how good the props are on preseason.
Just ridiculous.
Speaker 4 (29:52):
So join me over there, and thanks for having me
on and you look forward to seeing you again.
Speaker 1 (29:57):
Thanks, Bill, have a great one. Appreciate you.
Speaker 2 (29:59):
Thank you.
Speaker 1 (30:00):
Yeah, listen, Titans, it's fine, Yeah, we can address that.
Titans says no disrespect to ay have the shows talking
about things. This show used to be great now it's okay,
just my tinty Yeah, And Johnny said, like, listen, guys,
we get the analytics say everything to us. You guys
are telling us that you like hearing bigger picture things,
(30:22):
gambling theories and strategies. The views don't go up when
we talk about free pick. So it's literally the data
and the numbers that we get. So we're just gonna
be trying a bunch of new things and we're gonna
really try and make you guys better at what we
do here at Haiti Capping. So I appreciate the feedback guys.
Like I said, for about a month, we're just gonna
try a bunch of things we'll get the numbers and
we'll see how everything shakes out. So appreciate the feedback, guys.
(30:46):
That is that's the only way that we know what
works and what's gonna get better. So Titans love You.
No offense, had no no offense here at all. So
no justin the YouTube analytics, we literally can go in
and look at the show and see when people stop
watching and when they watch more, like we can see
everything in YouTube, so like we get feedback from people,
(31:08):
but we also like the analytics just tell us everything.
The YouTube analytics are so detailed, it's it's really really
it's it's crazy. So and yeah, that's the thing. There's
there's so many pick shows, Like we we have a
million pick videos on wage. You're talking went very really
specific plays, like yeah, we can talk about that. We
try to talk about some specific ones on the show.
But you know, there's just not too many shows where
(31:30):
people actually bet with their own money and do this
for a living. I mean, we just started off the
show with myself, Jihanny and Bill, like we bet every
single day. We have started with no money and we've
built our bank rolls up. So this information is invaluable.
So not trying to toot our own horn. But there's
not many shows where you can have three successful guys
that do this for a living. So we're also going
(31:53):
to bring in Brian Leonard. Make it four, make it
four guys that do this for a living. But please
hit the like button and subscribe to the channel, and yeah,
let's bring in Brian.
Speaker 4 (32:01):
Man.
Speaker 1 (32:02):
This is an insane run that mister Brian Leonard is
on Dude fourteen and one, last seven.
Speaker 5 (32:10):
Days, fourteen, last week, number one, that overall last seven days,
number one in baseball, ten and one in baseball. And
it's just one of those streaks that doesn't come around
all the time. So we all know about that, so
we got to take advantage of it, of it when
it does. And we've been luckily we've been putting out
(32:30):
bigger plays when we win, and when we're not winning,
I give out less, less star plays, a lot of
one and a half stars. So yeah, that way we
can we can promote when we do well and when
we when we are not doing well, we limited our
exposure and that's really what you're doing when you're betting. Also,
if you're seeing the card well, you want to up
your bets if you're not seeing it, well you down
(32:51):
downsize your bets. And you know, I am on the
total basis is now Monday through Friday. That's their Baseball
Show with myself, Adam Trigger and Tokyo Brandon. Today it
was our first day. We've decided to go Monday through Friday,
so we were doing three days a week. Great demand
for it, and everybody said they wanted seven. Of course
(33:12):
we'd like to have a day off, especially for me
because I'm doing it at six am out here in
Pacific in Las Vegas, but Monday through Friday. And we
talked about a lot of the games today. I do
have two plays we're going to give out here, and
these I specifically left off the earlier show. That way,
when you go back and you rewatch the earlier show,
(33:33):
you can get our other opinions on other games.
Speaker 2 (33:35):
But yeah, it's been going great. Everything's working out really well.
And excited for another day of baseball.
Speaker 1 (33:41):
Well let's get into it. It's break down a couple
of games. Let's start with the Reds and the Pirates.
Got Ladola for Sizy Keller for the Pirates. How do
you see this game?
Speaker 4 (33:49):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (33:50):
I set these in a little bit earlier, so the
lines have moved a little bit, but at the time
we understood why the rets had been as sold as
the road favorite. Johnny kind of talked about this. He
was on the pitch side, and we just don't agree
with it. I agree with Giohanny on this. Yes, Nicolodolo
is the more talented hurler, but he's always had trouble
staying healthy. In the last two and a quarter seasons,
he's only thrown over two hundred and twenty total innings
(34:12):
his career. He arres a pedestrian four point three to
three were less than a stellar one point two sixth
career whip, while his chase raiders in the ninetieth percentile
and his walk grade is in the ninety third percent ale.
All of his other stackcass numbers are league average or worse.
But the main reason why we want to fade Cincinnati
here is their bullpen is totally ravaged. Paganis and Centillion
(34:35):
are out after pitching the last three days. Ashcroft pitched
two at the last three days over the weekend, along
with Rogers in May, so those are other guys that
probably won't be pitching tonight. Brent Suder was forced to
throw forty seven pitches two days ago. All this means
Cincinnati is forced to keep the often injured Nicolodolo in
the game recalls. Regardless of his success, He's got to
(34:57):
give them at least six innings tonight because of that
bullpen is really worn out. And you know, thanks to
Paul Skatings and his complete game yesterday, the entire bullpen
is available. While Mitch Keller grades out as a journeyman pitcher,
he does rack up innings over three hundred and seventy
could buy an innings the last two years, and with
both teams in the lower half of WRSC plus offensive
(35:18):
numbers on the season, I'll step out here and I'll
play the Pirates with that huge advantage in the bullpen.
Speaker 1 (35:24):
For this play, I love it. Let's talk about the
Royals and the Giants. I look this up. I had
to like double and triple check this. So Ray is
going for San Francisco. San Francisco is nine to zero
in games that he started this year. That's crazy, that's insane.
Speaker 5 (35:44):
Yeah, he's been a moneymaker six and oh for himself
and nine and ozer for the team. And before we
get started, I do want I mentioned this on the
other show. I always talk about when you're looking to
fade left handers. Left handed major League Baseball hitter is
only face left He's about thirty percent of the time,
so they don't see him very often. We've got two
(36:06):
lefties going today and two lefties that are pretty good
for Kansas City and San Francisco. There's only there's thirty
teams in Major League Baseball. There's only three teams right
now they have a winning record against left handed starters.
So it's something to keep in mind as you handicap
on your own. Some information that a lot of people
wouldn't tell you. Information helps us make money. But two
(36:29):
of our favorite southballs due to battle tonight in the
Bay Area. Chris Bubig's been having a standing season after
coming out of the bullpen all twenty seven times a
year ago. He has a four and two record. I
was standing one point sixty six CRA one point one
on our whip and he's expected ERA is three point
one point five, so it can't expect some negative regression
along the way. But he's still been very oppressive with
(36:52):
his base numbers. He's in the seventy eighth percentile or
better in average eggs, velocity, chase rate, with per and extension.
The best four arms in the KC bullpen had to
be used last night, but Estevez and Ersag had the
previous day off. That's their eighth and ninth inning guys.
The Royals offense has struggled this year with a WRC
(37:14):
plus of eighty one, which is fourth worse than the league. Giants,
on the other hand, come in at ninety eight, which
is two percent below a league average. Kansas City's four
and four on the season versus the lefties, the Giants
are only four and ten versus south paus es compared
to twenty four and nine versus right handed starters. San
Francisco sends Robby Ray to the mound with the six
(37:36):
and zero record, three point zero three ERA, one point
twenty five whip. His expected ERA comes at three point
three eight. So while he does have some positive base stats,
I'm concerned about his twelve percentile heard rate and twelve
percentile walker rate. Robbie Ray has always walked a lot
of batters. He's had control issues. Those are two things
(37:56):
that do concern me and one of the reasons why
the nine to oh was a little bit surprising to
both of us with the games that he starts. That said,
the Giants bullpen Hunters play a pretty good shape. So
I'm looking to fade these two offenses and play this
game under the post of total. It's been boxing back
between seven. It's seven and a half all day, So
there's two syndicates out there with different feelings on this game.
(38:19):
But we like the under we're going to play this
game under. And yes, I do have a five percent
going today in Major League Baseball fourteen and one overall run.
Speaker 1 (38:29):
You could pick that up.
Speaker 5 (38:31):
Or Adam Trigger's also got a big five percent play
today and we've cut a special with the girls in
the office. You can pick up both those plays for
only forty nine dollars. Save yourself, you know, instead of
paying seventy you're paying forty nine. You get them both.
That's a hell of a deal for both of us.
And he had a perfect weekend, I believe he said,
real big weekend, and as you can tell, we've gone
(38:52):
a really hot run as late.
Speaker 1 (38:55):
That's great. So Brian, talk talk again real quick about
you SAIDs up the brilliant about it's the opposite of
chasing when you're when you're not running well, just lower
the amount of plays. When you're seeing it well, you
increase it. I feel like everybody gets cooked when they're losing.
You knowpe we chase and we try and get it
all back. Talk to us about that.
Speaker 5 (39:15):
Yeah, normally they do just the opposite. And you know,
I when we were starting out. I've been doing it
for over forty years. You're still a young guy, but
E maide mistakes like that. You know, I'll get together
to my buddies and I would lose, and you know,
we joke, we play Okay, we're gonna play every road
favorite on the board today. Just stupid shit that you
would never do now that you're treating it as a business.
So yeah, if you're seeing the card well, bet more.
(39:39):
Obviously if you're winning. If you're winning, you're seeing the
card well. But if you're not play less. You know,
a lot of people don't want to take days off.
I take a lot of days off. There's probably three
or four days a month I take off and don't
give my clients anything if I just am not running
well and I don't see it well. But you know,
we've been doing very well in underds. I always play
a lot of underdogs. And when I talk underdogs in
(40:01):
Major League Baseball, I'm talking plus money underdogs. So over
the last twelve plays I've had in Major League Baseball,
seven of those give you a plus money payback. But
we had like a plus one sixty eight the other day,
So it's not like we're fourteen oh one playing a
lot of big favorites. I don't do that, So that's
something to keep in mind. So our profit is even higher.
(40:22):
But a lot of the things that I look at
is it's obvious certain teams just don't have it, and
the Baltimore Orioles are one of them. They were a
team that came into the season did not do anything
from the management standpoint to help improve their pitching staff,
and now they've gone through a lot of injuries. Are
their best pitcher coming into the season hasn't pitched all year.
(40:44):
Their number two pitcher pitched yesterday, but he's been hurt
and he got bombed on his first game back. But
Baltimore is not playing well, and yet they continue to
make them as a favorite. And it's just something you
watch the games, you could tell they're not playing well. Normally,
when coaches are fired and there's been three coaches fired
this year, Colorado and Pittsburgh and Baltimore. None of them
(41:09):
were fired because of the coaching. They were fired because
the players players aren't any good and management doesn't want
to take the blame. That is why normally when David
Coco was around our dear League party buddy, he would
play teams after they fired coaches. Well, he'd be in
bad shape following these three after fire coaches because they
just don't have the players.
Speaker 4 (41:30):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (41:31):
So I've been able to take advantage of the Oils
on a regular basis. And once again they're in one
of those positions today where I couldn't put my money
on them, but I've had a lot of success going
against them. But you're able to find that out with
your own eyes.
Speaker 4 (41:46):
You know.
Speaker 5 (41:46):
I watch a lot of baseball, and you can look
through the box scores and you could tell you know
when your team's best players are slumping, like the Houston
Astros the best players out of lineup, Texas Rangers the
best players out of lineup. Those are games that you
got want to take a look at the Anders you
find out the ways to play those Steve Totals.
Speaker 1 (42:03):
Under love it Brian Leonard, that's great stuff. A couple
of free plays, and to forget to get that five
percent play from Brian Leonard and to run in that' spust.
You can get his and Adam Triggers for one price
forty nine dollars. Congratulations on the big run, Brian, keep
it up, good luck tonight. Let's catch that big one man. Thanks.
All right, all right, guys, Every Monday, we're gonna go
(42:25):
over how the hell the week went for clients and
let you guys see how we do our bankroll reset.
So Dan, if we can pull up that graphic, we
go through all of our sports, we show you how
much we made what we did good on so you
can see. MLB was the big loser for us this week.
NBA were up a little bit, NHL up Soccer Mma
(42:46):
was a nice one. We cashed it. NASCAR last night.
Golf was frustrating. We lost two plays in golf that
I'll just I'm absolutely sick of. Tennis was a big one.
That's why we bring up that tennis special. Guys, don't
mess around. Go get that tennis special. That is like
one of the biggest money makers that we have as
a team at winning in the shadows. So no cricket plays.
(43:07):
Lacrosse went one and one. Danis furious about what happened
with lacrosse this weekend. So overall twenty five and twenty
we brought in three units. If you're flat betting two percent,
we brought in three point eight units. We do this
every Monday. Got to look at the sports that you
did good in and what you didn't do good in
and do a little deep dive and figure out what
(43:28):
went wrong and let's capitalize it. So we're seeing NBA
really well. The first round NBA Playoffs sucked for myself,
it's been really good ever since then. So we have
an NBA play that is up. Encourage everyone to go
get that that play with the line. The line was
insanely good, insanely good on the NBA play. So that
is a play that is up. And the Tennis special
as well. Get thirty Days. So anytime a tennis major
(43:51):
comes up, we're just like, we're just super exciting because
I know money is gonna be rolling in, so yeah,
that's gonna do it here for us. I love the
comment it's about the Royals team total under just blindly
taking the Royals team total under. I love plays like that.
I love plays that just rinse and repeat. The bill said,
he's not a trend HANDI kapper, I am. I love
(44:13):
trends like that. If I can take the same play
and go seven and two, six and one, those are
the kind of streaks that I'm looking for. So shout
out to GTV. That's a really, really good one. So
all right, guys, hit the like button pretty quick show
for us today. Tomorrow, we're gonna do it again. Remember,
just just because there's no there's no NHL, no NBA,
se doesn't mean you have to force bets in there.
(44:35):
Let's protect our bank rolls, let's protect our profits. We're
all trying to get better as a team here. Take
advantage of that tennis special, take advantage of the NBA
play that we have up. We're gonna do it again
first thing Tuesday morning. Good luck and all your plays everyone.
We'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care,
You are welcome everyone to the best sports gambling show
on the planet. This is a Wager Talk Today. I'm
your host, Andy, and it's Monday. It's a new week, guys,
new opportunities, new weeks. Myself and clients are coming off
a winning week, and that's the goal every week. Try
to bring in some profits. Time to reset, time to refocus.
Let's get this new week started off on the right way.
(00:22):
Let's keep building, let's keep cashing, let's keep learning. Geohnny's
gonna join us, tell us where the sharp money is,
and I have We're gonna talk social media with Jiohnny.
Something came up over the weekend that I have to
talk about with Johnny. I'm also probably gonna bring it
up with Crackman. Crackman's gonna come on and talk MLB,
and then we're gonna talk with Brian Leonard. We had
to have Brian Leonard on the show today. That man
(00:43):
is fourteen and one in his last seven days. It's
an insane run. So we're gonna have Brian Leonard on.
We're gonna talk to him about his streak. He's gonna
break down a couple of MLB games for us, so
we're gonna bring Giohnny in, but guys, hit the like button.
You guys know what to do. We're gonna try and
get to one hundred likes before the end of the show.
As making one hundred and five. Let's up just a
little bite hundred and five likes and really, guys, subscribe
to the channel. There's so much great content on the
(01:05):
wager Talk channel. Go ahead and subscribe to the channel.
You get notified when all of these videos get released.
You get notified when we go live a wager Talk today.
So subscribe to the channel. Hit the like button. Let's
not waste any more time. Let's talk to Gianni. Gianni,
I had a nice weekend in MMA, and then I
looked at you and I was like, oh, Johnny had
(01:25):
a really nice UFC weekend. Congratulations man, five four percent
past night's work.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Thank you, brother. Shout out to block, Welcome to the party,
my man. Great, great great Saturday and MMA. In fact, Bro,
I hit a nine fighter parlay, a seven fighter parlay,
everything just felt I would have. I swear to god,
Bro I had a parlay that paid a three hundred
dollars parlay that paid twenty five thousand. The only loser
(01:55):
on it was stolefish crazy. What is My girl had
a ten fighter parlay and the only on the other side,
she had the other side to this, stole this fight
and she ends up hitting her parlay. The one fight
got canceled. She had like the comin event, like an
over under, but I lose my twenty five thousand dollars parlay,
but she ends up hitting like a twenty five hundred
(02:16):
dollars parlay because she had the other side of that. Wow,
it was just one of those days where I mean, listen,
all favorites, only one underdog got there. But you still
got to see that, you know what I mean. Like
I was joking with my girl. She's like, oh my god,
I hit this, and she's like, but it's all favorites.
I'm like, yeah, but you saw that you didn't like
any of the dogs except the one dog that you
had on there actually hit for her. So I was
(02:38):
it was this one of those days, man, sometimes it
all falls our way. So a great, great, great day
in MMA, great weekend overall. So yeah, just keep it
going now. Nope, Nope, no NBA today, no NHL today.
It's all about baseball, and that's why I've already been firing.
I rarely have a package up this this early, but
(02:58):
like I said, we've been betting baseball since early in
the morning and already released some place to subscribers.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Yeah, I may or may not have paid off my
mortgage and then someone Michael Morales by finish over Gilbert Burns.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
It was that was people were betting Burns. Morales went
down to like minus three fifty from minus hundred seven
hundred just two days prior.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
I couldn't believe it. I had no idea what everyone
saw in Gilbert Burns. My opinion is Michael Morales is
the next big thing. This is, this is this guy
is a future champion. I can't at.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Twenty four years old. So he's gonna be incrementally getting
better every time you see him, Like every time you
see him's gonna look like a new fighter. Now he's
gaining experience, but more importantly, he's gaining confidence beating big
names like again. And it's true, Burns has seen Morales
one hundred times. He's seen guys with power, he's seen
guys with reach, he's seen younger guys, but he was
(03:56):
able to just destroy them, dude.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
So it just showing you how this kid is.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
You saw quickly he went through Magni and you know,
Magnanie's been a gatekeeper now for a very long time
and he's closed that gate on a lot of up
and coming contenders, you know.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Yeah, but absolutely it's legit.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
He's legit. And Park Park impressed me a lot. The
Asian kid at Flyway. He's going to be a problem.
We know Denise Gomes is going to be a problem
in the ladies, but that kid Park's going to be
a problem.
Speaker 3 (04:25):
Man.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
He's so well rounded. I didn't know he had that
kind of grappling game to go with his power.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
I didn't either. That was that was the big surprise
for me. I didn't expect them to be that good.
But yeah, we learned a lot from there. So on Monday.
We don't have a ton going on right now. There's
no UFC this week and there's no NBA and age.
It doesn't mean there's not a lot of a lot
of ways to profit off of this card or off
of this day. Where's the sharp money at today?
Speaker 2 (04:50):
Yeah, it's all in baseball. And I'll give a three
percent premium too, because it's the first game that goes off.
I sent that out to subscribers. Pittsburgh at plus money.
You know, plus one oh five plus one oh three
is out there. As long as you're getting plus money,
they should be this slight favor in this game. You
see that line move. We also like the over in
that one, but I haven't released that. I did go
(05:12):
give a three percent on Pittsburgh at plus money. I'll
give you a couple more steam plays from the group
that I work with and stuff that I get shared
from other guys that move for different groups. Like I said,
then I see what I agree with and those become
premium plays. But here's some of the lists that I'm
(05:32):
looking at today. I gave you Pittsburgh an over nine
to fifty six, Colorado plus two forty five all the
way down the plus two ten. So he's getting hit
at plus two thirty five plus two twenty five plus
two to fifteen plus two ten. And sometimes I know
it's tough to take those kind of dogs, but anyone
who followed me throughout the weekend on the Angels over
to Dodgers, that was tough to bet. Every single day
(05:54):
you're going up against arguably the best team in Major
League baseball, But the money line becomes the equalizer, just
like the point spread becomes a great equalizer in point
spread sports. And then again plus two hundreds, you got
to win one out of three times just to break even.
And as we talk about all the time, there's not
going to be a single team when the season ends
that wins seventy PERCENTATOR game. There won't be a single
(06:16):
team that wins sixty seven PERCENTATOR games. There will be
one team, maybe two, that are near that sixty five
percent range. So don't be afraid to bet these big dogs.
Another one nine sixty two White Sox plus one seventy five,
one seventy Athletics minus one fifteen minus one twenty minus
one twenty five. And then another dog forty in nine
sixty nine Baltimore plus one fifteen plus one ten, and
(06:39):
the over in that Baltimore game at eight and a half,
and finally nine sixty eight Boston plus one twenty five,
So a lot of plus money. In fact, every play
I gave out so far has been plus money except
the Athletics. So dog day, dog day afternoon, let's hope.
So this evening, all.
Speaker 1 (06:59):
Right, Gionni, We're going to go in a completely different direction.
I was doing our live show UFC and someone brings
up I swear people posting these bet slips on social
media has bankrupted so many betters. And somebody in our
show brings up Dave Portnoy, So Dan, can we pull
this up? I just assumed that people knew this wasn't
(07:23):
real because they're not letting you bet twenty five thousand
dollars on a plus.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
The only way he bet twenty five thousand on that
is if he's down about two and a half million
lifetime to the property. Seriously, if he's down over seven figures,
they will book that bet out of common courtesy so
he doesn't go elsewhere. But otherwise they're not booking it.
(07:49):
There is zero zero hands. They're booking that what. It's
not gonna hunt. There's just not enough risk on the
other side. They can't book the risk on the other side.
It's not going to happen.
Speaker 1 (08:01):
Johnny. I limit myself to two hundred and fifty dollars
on these domestics on props, so I don't get myself limited,
So I have to bet like across a bunch, And
I was stunned at how many people were like look
he won. No, they're not taking that bet. I don't know.
I think it's an epidemic in the worst way, this
(08:23):
posting bet slips and stuff like this on social media.
How do we ignore it? How do we just not
let this focus on it?
Speaker 2 (08:32):
We deserve it, bro, we deserve it. We the market
deserves it. Why because that's going to get all the views,
it's going to get all the likes, when the only
question should be how are you doing in twenty twenty five?
Where are you at in twenty twenty five? I don't
want to. I don't give a shit about your bet
last night? What do you How are you doing this year?
(08:52):
How did you do last year? How'd you do the
year before? You you're a guy that bets every day,
you talk about bet gambling. You obviously file taxes. You
know how you've done that? Tell show us, though, if
you're gonna show us the slips and you're gonna promote
because that's what you're pushing, you're promoting big winning bets,
(09:14):
then you gotta zoom out that that's and it's we
the market don't demand it. That's the problem. We follow
these influencers that show this bullshit lifestyle that doesn't exist
for anybody. And they definitely didn't make their money by
beating the books that much. I can promise you they're
not betting those figures because they're they're they're up all
(09:34):
this money on the books or anything like that. But again,
it's social media. It's a fake world, just like you know,
Instagram and Twitter and all of those. It's just a
fake reality. It's not reality. And not only has that
destroyed people mentally, it's the most depressed. I mean, this
is the most prosperous the world has ever been, and
(09:55):
yet it's also the most depressed and the highest rate
of people on antidepressants in the history of mankind. And
what does that? It's social media? Why, because you're comparing
your life to bullshit, to fakeness like that. Yeah, you
can't win. You can't win. That's why the divorce rate
is high. That's why people cheat that because they think
(10:17):
they have options. They think there's this fake like reality
that doesn't exist for anybody. I'm telling you, like, no,
everybody's just showing their best life, you know what I mean, Like,
no one's showing the reality of a real life. They're
just showing clips and most of it is fake. Most
of it is skits, you know what I mean. It's
(10:38):
just not real life, bro. But unfortunately, this is what
we're consuming every single day, and we're all myself included,
we're all brainwashed because that's what we do. We compare
our lives to what we see on the screen, and
you're never going to win. You can't win. The Internet's
undefeated and that lifestyle being portrayed is the exact same way.
And I think it's done the worst thing for society.
(11:00):
And of course it's going to do it in in
micro also not just the macro, which is the world,
but it's doing it in separate market. Look at sports betting,
it's destroyed. We thought the industry was bad when people
were lying about their results and selling you know, one
nine hundred numbers. This is that that was nothing compared
to the stuff that's going on scamming. These young kids
(11:20):
that are coming in like they're they're they're seeing a
reality that doesn't exist. Andy it does not exist, like
they're there. There's they're starting from so far behind the
eight ball because they're they're creating this reality that's never
going to be attainable. Just like you can't attain that
reality in real life. You can't attain it in sports betting,
Like you're not gonna win at those kind of crazy rates.
(11:42):
You're not gonna like make get rich placing those same
game eight player parlays and you know, eight game parlays
and that they're sad.
Speaker 1 (11:53):
I'm gonna do my week recap at the end of
the show and we're up like three units, and that's
just not sexy. That that's not that's not getting a
lot of clicks on social media. But guess what the
reality that's how you build.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Three a week? Are you kidding me? That's one hundred
and fifty units at the end of a year, coming
up one hundred and fifty and it's at the end
of the years is are you dude again? What world
are we living in?
Speaker 3 (12:17):
That?
Speaker 2 (12:17):
That's not impressive.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
I did the math on this. If you start with
a thousand dollars and you make three units a week
in four years, we'll have a million without depositing any
money money into it, if you just do if you
just do three three a week. So yeah, it was interesting.
I was I was stunned how many people thought thought
it was real and it just really kind of stunned
me and opened my eyes to Wow, this is this
(12:39):
is what we're fighting like, you know, we try to
talk about our wins and our losses, and this is
what we're we're up against. So yeah, it's it's it's
big on the mindset. So appreciate that that that commentary, Johnny,
because I just I when I heard that, I was like,
I have to ask Johnny about this. I have to
ask Johnny about this.
Speaker 2 (12:55):
Yeah, it's just nonsense, bro. I live in the real world.
I see that the few people out here that actually
make their living betting sports. That ain't it?
Speaker 1 (13:03):
Ain't I know, I know. Well, I got a lot
of topics talk about this week. We got some really
really good ones. I can't wait. Crush it, brother, Yeah,
absolutely tell her.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
On what you have up at wager Talk already. Uh,
the major League package. I'm going to put everything in there. Again,
we're not going heavy volume, but baseball is the only
sport we're gonna betting today. Multiple four percent best bets
in there still number one overall in the baseball season,
up in Major League Baseball, and up in baseball overall,
along with the college and sometimes those triple a's that
(13:33):
come at us. So yeah, let's start the week off winning,
coming off a nice, nice couple of days, and uh
up for the year. That's where we want to be.
Let's just keep going. Tomorrows the second to the last
class of blackjack. So if you signed up for the year,
I know a couple guys jumped on this weekend, make
sure you get the other seven classes. Johnny's and wager
(13:55):
Talk is handling that really well to make sure everybody
has access to that information. So looking forward to tomors
second to last class.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
Awesome stuff, Jiohnny, Thank you so much, brother, I always
love talking to you. Have a great Monday. All around
the world. We do some free plays. A lot of
these are on the free picks page at wager Talk.
So if you want to see some of the plays
that the Haiti Capper's up, maybe it put you in
the right direction. We got a few of them here.
So Dan, let's take a trip. We got a new graphic. Yeah, yes,
(14:28):
I love this. We're going all around the world, guys.
Let's take a look at the Mariners minus one and
a half over the White Sox. Mariners just swept San Diego.
White Sox were just swept by the Cubs. They did
not score more than three runs in any game. Castillo
going for Seattle, allowed one run or none and three
of his last four starts. Take a look at a player.
Prop Brandon fought over four and a half strikeouts twenty
(14:49):
three strikeouts and eighteen innings against the Dodgers over this
total in ten out of his last fifteen starts. Let's
go to the WNBA Seattle Storm under eighty four and
a half on the team total. They only scored fifty
nine points in the first game, three of seventeen from threes.
Pretty slow place of pay, slow pace of play. They
played the Wings. The Wings gave up ninety nine in
(15:09):
their first game, but that was against the Links, and
the Links are really good. So Mariners minus one and
a half fought over four and a half strikeouts in
Seattle Storm under team total. That is your all around
the world. We're still running the same specials we were
running last week. Guys, three days for forty nine dollars.
I know a lot of you got our three day
special on Friday. That worked out really well because mostly
because of what we did in MMA. Pick any handicapper
(15:32):
you get three days discounted down to forty nine dollars.
If you're interested in more long term results, we do
have the year special that is still up eight hundred
and eleven dollars discounted immediately, and you get that twenty
five percent coupon that goes for any package, any play,
for any other handicapper for the duration of those three
(15:52):
hundred and sixty five days. I'm actually meeting up with
somebody on Thursday to talk about long term investing and
we're gonna get him set up with that. So it's
things like Johnny and I talked about, like this is
a business and the way you do it is investing
long term and grinding out these three units per week.
So if you want to take advantage of that, I
would encourage everyone to jump on board over at the
Deal's page, over at wager Talk, and again like the video, guys,
(16:16):
we're creeping up on the likes and subscribe to the channel.
Really trying to work on getting as many people subscribe
so that way you guys get notified when all these
videos come out. So take advantage of everything. And it's
tennis time for us. The French Open is right around
the corner. This is where we do damage. You guys
have been following us. You know, Corbin crushes tennis. He's
(16:38):
the tennis department at our team. The winning in the
shadows and the majors, it's where he does all his damage.
So we're doing a thirty day tennis special. It's gonna
be discounted twenty bucks. You're gonna get all plays for
thirty for thirty days, and that includes the French Open.
That's what we're gearing up for. One hundred and seventy
six units lifetime and last year's Majors he went forty
(16:59):
nine and twenty six for plus twenty four units just
in the four major. So this is a big, big
source of building our bank roll. I'm a flatbatter. I
bet more on Corbyn's tennis plays, so take advantage of that.
The qualifications are this week and then it starts on Sunday,
I believe, so take advantage of that. Tennis is where
we do a lot of damage. He's up over forty
(17:20):
units this year alone in tennis, so you can grab
that WT dot buzz slash a l. All right, let's
bring in Bill crack Man. We're gonna talk a little
MLB and We're also gonna talk a little bit of props. Bill.
Hope you had a great weekend, sir. How are you doing.
Speaker 4 (17:37):
Yeah, I had a really good weekend. I had a
really good week. Actually.
Speaker 3 (17:42):
You know, Major League Baseball started out a little bit
slower this year, but this past week now, I mean
we're twenty and six in last twenty on six plays,
so well, you know when in twenty out of twenty
six is a nice nice way to get this Major
League Baseball off the schneide. And uh, of course I
(18:03):
look forward to uh that continued success there, but I'm
also betting some other things like golf and and looking
forward to uh NBA props still where we're still going
strong with them major League Baseball props.
Speaker 4 (18:18):
But yeah, things are going well, all right, anythings.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
Yeah, yeah, all right. Uh looking at looking at any
MLB props for today, a thing jump off the page
for you. Yeah, you know.
Speaker 4 (18:28):
And that's another thing too.
Speaker 3 (18:30):
You know you could go to you can go to
all these different sites now, and what a difference. Because
someone made a someone asked me something and he said,
he said, hey, you know, where are you getting these
Major League Baseball props? Let me just tell you living
here in Las Vegas or anywhere in the country. Now
you have fandos and DraftKings and all over the country,
(18:50):
bet MGMs, you have Caesar's brand, West cath put some
propre There's a lot of places now that are putting
these Major League Baseball props up. So uh, today I'm
looking at the Phillies starting pitcher A Christopher Sanchez. I'm
going with over five and a half strikeouts for him. Uh.
Speaker 4 (19:09):
For for a few reasons though.
Speaker 3 (19:11):
One, he has the best strikeout rate so far, that one.
Speaker 4 (19:16):
Of the best this season twenty nine.
Speaker 3 (19:18):
Secondly, he is up against the Rockies lineup today, who
has been terrible this season against lefties. They had the
second highest strikeout rate this season against south pass. I
know the Rockies are playing a little bit better as
of late, but and you know they have to return
to the mean a little bit. They were, you know,
they were stuck at like six wins for a while,
worst of him in baseball. So but today we are
(19:41):
going with the over Sanchez over five and a half strikeouts.
That's good to about a buck sixty five, or you
can even take over six and a half at plus
one twenty five or better.
Speaker 1 (19:52):
I love it. You and I have a passion for
for betting props. It's where I do pretty much all
of my damage. I love the NBA, NH And you know,
I remember when I first started doing props at Wager
talking was kind of under the radar a little bit.
Not not so much anymore. You like, like you mentioned,
you can you can get a lot down on props.
(20:13):
I used to not be able to bet a whole lot.
I really didn't, and now it's they're kind of available everywhere.
Have you seen the evolution of prop betting?
Speaker 3 (20:22):
You know the average first of all, the average bet
in this country is actually under one hundred dollars.
Speaker 4 (20:28):
So it's not like.
Speaker 3 (20:29):
You or I or you know, I'm trying to get
down as much money as I can on player props.
So here in Vegas I have like Westgates Circa and
let me be blunts. I've run out of many sportsbooks
like Stations and Caesars for using my brain. So but
but they can't stop me. I'm always going to beard
back in. I mean, I always tell them how silly
of this, But those places that throw me out for winning,
(20:52):
but winning on props also, But I like the NFL
season two where it's a little bit more. I UNDERSTANDL
season has a lot more money in the market, so
kind of the risk managers maybe don't look so much
to the props and say, oh my god, these guys
are killing us because there's not so many like literally
microscopes on your account store in the NFL when the
(21:13):
public is just given them sports books, money, the player props,
even team props over under punch, shortest touchdown scored. In
the NBA and Major League Baseball, I mostly stick to
the player props. They're the ones I actually do want
to play and want to get down on picture props
like I just gave you in Major League Baseball, I
(21:34):
look at their recent form, their velocity and the spin rate.
Believe it or not too it's something we look at
it kind of like I always tell people, you don't
have to worry about that. Don't even get in that.
It's a little bit analytical detailed. Leave that to us
and we'll just give you the play.
Speaker 4 (21:49):
Is it a great They can.
Speaker 3 (21:50):
Work forty fifty hours a weekend off another research. Leave
that the guys like me and you, and it's just
you know, look at their line up facing into account
when to look at these pictures, like, there's so many
different things you put into it. You don't just say,
oh I like that picture. He strikes out a lot
of people. Let's put that up. No, there's a lot
(22:10):
more that go into it. And it's it's you know,
it's it's interesting how we have evolved. I've been doing this,
you know, almost thirty years professionally, and I see that
from back then to now, literally nobody had props up.
Speaker 4 (22:24):
Now it's a daily thing.
Speaker 3 (22:26):
You know.
Speaker 4 (22:27):
Bet MGM is one of the.
Speaker 3 (22:28):
Sponsors of My My Big Fox Show on the weekend.
And I cannot believe. I was just telling the director
or risk they had one hundred and fifty different ways
to bet the basketball game yesterday.
Speaker 4 (22:40):
Oh ye, I mean that's unbelievable, that's crazy.
Speaker 3 (22:44):
It's I counted them up one hundred and fifty different
kind of bets for NBA game, you know, most of
them being props.
Speaker 4 (22:49):
And I like them.
Speaker 3 (22:51):
It into two way markets too, like you know, not
just I don't like when sportsbook just puts up one
way because that means it's a giant hold. So I
like to be I like betting season wins as they
get adjusted every every week, baseball season wins as they
get adjusted MGM, Caesars, DraftKings, Fandel, they all do them.
So but like I said, the average bet is like
(23:12):
one hundred dollars in this car under one hundred actually,
So people can get down on these props, and you
can get down on these baseball props and NFL props
when we get into it where I myself have a
little bit harder at the time, so I don't front
run customers.
Speaker 4 (23:27):
I'm going to put up an obtainable line at all times.
Speaker 3 (23:31):
And you know, I'm going to talk from a from
a serious standpoint, not like what you and Gianni were
just talking about. These people on social media, these kids
that are impressed by, you know, having a nice hot
girl on your on your arm and a beautiful car,
and anyone could have that fagezy stuff, and trust me,
that is faghezi stuff.
Speaker 1 (23:53):
You've been on a nice run in MLB, have you
you been, like riding a couple certain teams or trends,
what's been what's been working for though?
Speaker 3 (24:01):
You know it's funny I almost spot out there. I'm
not a trend guy. If I had to pick a
sport that would be trendy, it would be baseball. But
I am not a trend guy. I don't go by trends.
Especially you see these handicappers say, oh, this team over
the last seven seasons in this situation, you know they're
(24:23):
thirteen and one. Well, I don't care about the situations
with squads that weren't even the same teams over the
last six seasons. I want to know about this season.
I want to know what's going on now. So, but
that's what happens with. You know, all these networks, ESPN
and all the networks, they're full of fluff. They have
nothing else to talk about. They can't talk about real
(24:45):
information because they don't have it. They're not winning sports betters.
They may give out games and give out things, and
that goes for everyone. You think you guys are talking
about Portnoy before listen. I know he does a lot
good for the community, and he's in there and he
helps pizza people out. He pays them, helps them out,
I mean, you know, to get them money. And I
(25:06):
know he helps their their businesses out because he promotes them. Then,
but I want to tell you something.
Speaker 4 (25:10):
Though, he's not a winning gambler.
Speaker 3 (25:12):
And of course, by the way, those bets are real.
Those bets are absolutely real.
Speaker 2 (25:17):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (25:17):
DraftKings is taking his bets absolutely and why A yes,
long term he's a losing gambler, even though he's actually
on a little bit of a run here in the
past six months. I'm hearing b and more importantly, the
more important thing this should be a of.
Speaker 4 (25:34):
Course they're going to take those bets in there. He
puts so.
Speaker 3 (25:37):
Many stoolies, yes too into DraftKings. You know, do you
know the hold of a barstool customer compared to Joe Public.
Let's let's start with this. In Las Vegas, the hold
is about six percent of the customer the money that's
bets through the counter that sometimes less monthly, Let's let's
(25:57):
use six percent. Six percent the at a New Jersey's
about ten percent. Now you go over to the barstool
guys that bet, oh my god, bombs over Tokyo, twenty
percent of the money that goes through the counter and
I mean through the apps are kept of the barstool crowd.
Speaker 4 (26:19):
You know.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
Of course DraftKings is gonna give him anything he wants.
Speaker 4 (26:22):
Of course they're gonna throw anything. He says.
Speaker 3 (26:25):
They're the highest rate over three times the hold of
a Las Vegas customer, the barstool.
Speaker 4 (26:31):
Guys, so you tell amaze their intelligence.
Speaker 1 (26:34):
Level amazing, amazing. Bill, Thank you so much for all
your knowledge and your wisdom. I can't wait to meet
up with you in person next time I'm in Vegas. Man,
I wanted to pick your brain about a lot and
I got to tell you. Did you happen to catch
that ESPN BET Golf show this weekend at the PGA Championship.
It was really good. They did a great job with it.
Speaker 4 (26:57):
It was it was great.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
I couldn't believe it.
Speaker 2 (26:59):
It was.
Speaker 1 (27:00):
It was on ESPN. Plus it was funny, it was,
it was. It was entertaining, of course they all lost.
Speaker 4 (27:06):
But.
Speaker 3 (27:09):
Relatable, entertaining, funny that that's that's really important. But as
long as the people are watching know that, you know,
they've killed more people than many diseases, then that's then
that's fine. But you know, and I'm you know, I
have to tell you, I'm not trying to down ESPN
and everything.
Speaker 4 (27:27):
It is what it is.
Speaker 3 (27:28):
And you know, I know a lot of those people
on there too. They're they're actually nice people, some of them,
but you know, they're they're long term they're there. Nobody's winning.
No one's actually winning betting that stuff. But hey, if
it's fun, Uh, there's a price on being entertained.
Speaker 4 (27:42):
So you want to have fun with it and.
Speaker 3 (27:44):
Be entertained, that's great. If you want winners, you come
over here and you join us for the winners. So money, money, literally,
money is everything when it comes to a life, and
you know, I say everything. It's people always say money
is not everything. Well most of those peop we'll say
that because they don't have any And I'm not trying
to be a jerk enough. I'm just saying money. Of course,
(28:05):
it can't help everything in life, I understand, but I'll
tell you what it certainly helps most. So absolutely anyway,
as long as people have fun and watch that stuff,
just know you're being entertained this stuff.
Speaker 4 (28:17):
You know.
Speaker 3 (28:18):
Listen, I have a little I have a little beef
against ESPN. They fired my best friend, so, they fired
Teddy Atlas, they fired Howie Schwab years ago.
Speaker 4 (28:26):
These guys are guys that were my guys.
Speaker 3 (28:28):
So and then they want to say, oh, poor Howie,
I'm so sorry passed and our steam colleague, Yeah, give
it a break.
Speaker 4 (28:35):
The SPN that's what I feel about you guys.
Speaker 1 (28:38):
Bill, tell her what you have up at wager Talking True.
Speaker 3 (28:40):
Jim, Yeah, you know, let's go to the Let's go
to the site, because I always say about how bad
I am promoting myself here to top rated Major League
Baseball strikeout props and over sixty two percent so far
this season on these eleven and three run in the
past prop nineteen and five run on Baseball on Way
Talk Major League Baseball pitching props this season going thirty
(29:03):
eight twenty three so far. Looks like we've got some
things up there, two picture props up, some other things.
Speaker 4 (29:09):
You know, we loves.
Speaker 3 (29:10):
I know it's tough for people to join for a
whole season. Now you think now or in May, why
are you going to sign up for whole season?
Speaker 4 (29:18):
Well, I wager talk.
Speaker 3 (29:19):
They got it's probably my beef with them. They put
up some things for me for the season. They're giving
away some unbelievable deals over on wager talk dot com.
You can just click on my link, click on my bio,
and they're really giving really good deals on my season stuff.
And you can buy right now through the end of
the NFL season for about one third of what the
(29:41):
price is going to become NFL season. That includes all
my preseason, all my NFL props. Never had a losing
NFL season. That's how good the props are on preseason.
Just ridiculous.
Speaker 4 (29:52):
So join me over there, and thanks for having me
on and you look forward to seeing you again.
Speaker 1 (29:57):
Thanks, Bill, have a great one. Appreciate you.
Speaker 2 (29:59):
Thank you.
Speaker 1 (30:00):
Yeah, listen, Titans, it's fine, Yeah, we can address that.
Titans says no disrespect to ay have the shows talking
about things. This show used to be great now it's okay,
just my tinty Yeah, And Johnny said, like, listen, guys,
we get the analytics say everything to us. You guys
are telling us that you like hearing bigger picture things,
(30:22):
gambling theories and strategies. The views don't go up when
we talk about free pick. So it's literally the data
and the numbers that we get. So we're just gonna
be trying a bunch of new things and we're gonna
really try and make you guys better at what we
do here at Haiti Capping. So I appreciate the feedback guys.
Like I said, for about a month, we're just gonna
try a bunch of things we'll get the numbers and
we'll see how everything shakes out. So appreciate the feedback, guys.
(30:46):
That is that's the only way that we know what
works and what's gonna get better. So Titans love You.
No offense, had no no offense here at all. So
no justin the YouTube analytics, we literally can go in
and look at the show and see when people stop
watching and when they watch more, like we can see
everything in YouTube, so like we get feedback from people,
(31:08):
but we also like the analytics just tell us everything.
The YouTube analytics are so detailed, it's it's really really
it's it's crazy. So and yeah, that's the thing. There's
there's so many pick shows, Like we we have a
million pick videos on wage. You're talking went very really
specific plays, like yeah, we can talk about that. We
try to talk about some specific ones on the show.
But you know, there's just not too many shows where
(31:30):
people actually bet with their own money and do this
for a living. I mean, we just started off the
show with myself, Jihanny and Bill, like we bet every
single day. We have started with no money and we've
built our bank rolls up. So this information is invaluable.
So not trying to toot our own horn. But there's
not many shows where you can have three successful guys
that do this for a living. So we're also going
(31:53):
to bring in Brian Leonard. Make it four, make it
four guys that do this for a living. But please
hit the like button and subscribe to the channel, and yeah,
let's bring in Brian.
Speaker 4 (32:01):
Man.
Speaker 1 (32:02):
This is an insane run that mister Brian Leonard is
on Dude fourteen and one, last seven.
Speaker 5 (32:10):
Days, fourteen, last week, number one, that overall last seven days,
number one in baseball, ten and one in baseball. And
it's just one of those streaks that doesn't come around
all the time. So we all know about that, so
we got to take advantage of it, of it when
it does. And we've been luckily we've been putting out
(32:30):
bigger plays when we win, and when we're not winning,
I give out less, less star plays, a lot of
one and a half stars. So yeah, that way we
can we can promote when we do well and when
we when we are not doing well, we limited our
exposure and that's really what you're doing when you're betting. Also,
if you're seeing the card well, you want to up
your bets if you're not seeing it, well you down
(32:51):
downsize your bets. And you know, I am on the
total basis is now Monday through Friday. That's their Baseball
Show with myself, Adam Trigger and Tokyo Brandon. Today it
was our first day. We've decided to go Monday through Friday,
so we were doing three days a week. Great demand
for it, and everybody said they wanted seven. Of course
(33:12):
we'd like to have a day off, especially for me
because I'm doing it at six am out here in
Pacific in Las Vegas, but Monday through Friday. And we
talked about a lot of the games today. I do
have two plays we're going to give out here, and
these I specifically left off the earlier show. That way,
when you go back and you rewatch the earlier show,
(33:33):
you can get our other opinions on other games.
Speaker 2 (33:35):
But yeah, it's been going great. Everything's working out really well.
And excited for another day of baseball.
Speaker 1 (33:41):
Well let's get into it. It's break down a couple
of games. Let's start with the Reds and the Pirates.
Got Ladola for Sizy Keller for the Pirates. How do
you see this game?
Speaker 4 (33:49):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (33:50):
I set these in a little bit earlier, so the
lines have moved a little bit, but at the time
we understood why the rets had been as sold as
the road favorite. Johnny kind of talked about this. He
was on the pitch side, and we just don't agree
with it. I agree with Giohanny on this. Yes, Nicolodolo
is the more talented hurler, but he's always had trouble
staying healthy. In the last two and a quarter seasons,
he's only thrown over two hundred and twenty total innings
(34:12):
his career. He arres a pedestrian four point three to
three were less than a stellar one point two sixth
career whip, while his chase raiders in the ninetieth percentile
and his walk grade is in the ninety third percent ale.
All of his other stackcass numbers are league average or worse.
But the main reason why we want to fade Cincinnati
here is their bullpen is totally ravaged. Paganis and Centillion
(34:35):
are out after pitching the last three days. Ashcroft pitched
two at the last three days over the weekend, along
with Rogers in May, so those are other guys that
probably won't be pitching tonight. Brent Suder was forced to
throw forty seven pitches two days ago. All this means
Cincinnati is forced to keep the often injured Nicolodolo in
the game recalls. Regardless of his success, He's got to
(34:57):
give them at least six innings tonight because of that
bullpen is really worn out. And you know, thanks to
Paul Skatings and his complete game yesterday, the entire bullpen
is available. While Mitch Keller grades out as a journeyman pitcher,
he does rack up innings over three hundred and seventy
could buy an innings the last two years, and with
both teams in the lower half of WRSC plus offensive
(35:18):
numbers on the season, I'll step out here and I'll
play the Pirates with that huge advantage in the bullpen.
Speaker 1 (35:24):
For this play, I love it. Let's talk about the
Royals and the Giants. I look this up. I had
to like double and triple check this. So Ray is
going for San Francisco. San Francisco is nine to zero
in games that he started this year. That's crazy, that's insane.
Speaker 5 (35:44):
Yeah, he's been a moneymaker six and oh for himself
and nine and ozer for the team. And before we
get started, I do want I mentioned this on the
other show. I always talk about when you're looking to
fade left handers. Left handed major League Baseball hitter is
only face left He's about thirty percent of the time,
so they don't see him very often. We've got two
(36:06):
lefties going today and two lefties that are pretty good
for Kansas City and San Francisco. There's only there's thirty
teams in Major League Baseball. There's only three teams right
now they have a winning record against left handed starters.
So it's something to keep in mind as you handicap
on your own. Some information that a lot of people
wouldn't tell you. Information helps us make money. But two
(36:29):
of our favorite southballs due to battle tonight in the
Bay Area. Chris Bubig's been having a standing season after
coming out of the bullpen all twenty seven times a
year ago. He has a four and two record. I
was standing one point sixty six CRA one point one
on our whip and he's expected ERA is three point
one point five, so it can't expect some negative regression
along the way. But he's still been very oppressive with
(36:52):
his base numbers. He's in the seventy eighth percentile or
better in average eggs, velocity, chase rate, with per and extension.
The best four arms in the KC bullpen had to
be used last night, but Estevez and Ersag had the
previous day off. That's their eighth and ninth inning guys.
The Royals offense has struggled this year with a WRC
(37:14):
plus of eighty one, which is fourth worse than the league. Giants,
on the other hand, come in at ninety eight, which
is two percent below a league average. Kansas City's four
and four on the season versus the lefties, the Giants
are only four and ten versus south paus es compared
to twenty four and nine versus right handed starters. San
Francisco sends Robby Ray to the mound with the six
(37:36):
and zero record, three point zero three ERA, one point
twenty five whip. His expected ERA comes at three point
three eight. So while he does have some positive base stats,
I'm concerned about his twelve percentile heard rate and twelve
percentile walker rate. Robbie Ray has always walked a lot
of batters. He's had control issues. Those are two things
(37:56):
that do concern me and one of the reasons why
the nine to oh was a little bit surprising to
both of us with the games that he starts. That said,
the Giants bullpen Hunters play a pretty good shape. So
I'm looking to fade these two offenses and play this
game under the post of total. It's been boxing back
between seven. It's seven and a half all day, So
there's two syndicates out there with different feelings on this game.
(38:19):
But we like the under we're going to play this
game under. And yes, I do have a five percent
going today in Major League Baseball fourteen and one overall run.
Speaker 1 (38:29):
You could pick that up.
Speaker 5 (38:31):
Or Adam Trigger's also got a big five percent play
today and we've cut a special with the girls in
the office. You can pick up both those plays for
only forty nine dollars. Save yourself, you know, instead of
paying seventy you're paying forty nine. You get them both.
That's a hell of a deal for both of us.
And he had a perfect weekend, I believe he said,
real big weekend, and as you can tell, we've gone
(38:52):
a really hot run as late.
Speaker 1 (38:55):
That's great. So Brian, talk talk again real quick about
you SAIDs up the brilliant about it's the opposite of
chasing when you're when you're not running well, just lower
the amount of plays. When you're seeing it well, you
increase it. I feel like everybody gets cooked when they're losing.
You knowpe we chase and we try and get it
all back. Talk to us about that.
Speaker 5 (39:15):
Yeah, normally they do just the opposite. And you know,
I when we were starting out. I've been doing it
for over forty years. You're still a young guy, but
E maide mistakes like that. You know, I'll get together
to my buddies and I would lose, and you know,
we joke, we play Okay, we're gonna play every road
favorite on the board today. Just stupid shit that you
would never do now that you're treating it as a business.
So yeah, if you're seeing the card well, bet more.
(39:39):
Obviously if you're winning. If you're winning, you're seeing the
card well. But if you're not play less. You know,
a lot of people don't want to take days off.
I take a lot of days off. There's probably three
or four days a month I take off and don't
give my clients anything if I just am not running
well and I don't see it well. But you know,
we've been doing very well in underds. I always play
a lot of underdogs. And when I talk underdogs in
(40:01):
Major League Baseball, I'm talking plus money underdogs. So over
the last twelve plays I've had in Major League Baseball,
seven of those give you a plus money payback. But
we had like a plus one sixty eight the other day,
So it's not like we're fourteen oh one playing a
lot of big favorites. I don't do that, So that's
something to keep in mind. So our profit is even higher.
(40:22):
But a lot of the things that I look at
is it's obvious certain teams just don't have it, and
the Baltimore Orioles are one of them. They were a
team that came into the season did not do anything
from the management standpoint to help improve their pitching staff,
and now they've gone through a lot of injuries. Are
their best pitcher coming into the season hasn't pitched all year.
(40:44):
Their number two pitcher pitched yesterday, but he's been hurt
and he got bombed on his first game back. But
Baltimore is not playing well, and yet they continue to
make them as a favorite. And it's just something you
watch the games, you could tell they're not playing well. Normally,
when coaches are fired and there's been three coaches fired
this year, Colorado and Pittsburgh and Baltimore. None of them
(41:09):
were fired because of the coaching. They were fired because
the players players aren't any good and management doesn't want
to take the blame. That is why normally when David
Coco was around our dear League party buddy, he would
play teams after they fired coaches. Well, he'd be in
bad shape following these three after fire coaches because they
just don't have the players.
Speaker 4 (41:30):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (41:31):
So I've been able to take advantage of the Oils
on a regular basis. And once again they're in one
of those positions today where I couldn't put my money
on them, but I've had a lot of success going
against them. But you're able to find that out with
your own eyes.
Speaker 4 (41:46):
You know.
Speaker 5 (41:46):
I watch a lot of baseball, and you can look
through the box scores and you could tell you know
when your team's best players are slumping, like the Houston
Astros the best players out of lineup, Texas Rangers the
best players out of lineup. Those are games that you
got want to take a look at the Anders you
find out the ways to play those Steve Totals.
Speaker 1 (42:03):
Under love it Brian Leonard, that's great stuff. A couple
of free plays, and to forget to get that five
percent play from Brian Leonard and to run in that' spust.
You can get his and Adam Triggers for one price
forty nine dollars. Congratulations on the big run, Brian, keep
it up, good luck tonight. Let's catch that big one man. Thanks.
All right, all right, guys, Every Monday, we're gonna go
(42:25):
over how the hell the week went for clients and
let you guys see how we do our bankroll reset.
So Dan, if we can pull up that graphic, we
go through all of our sports, we show you how
much we made what we did good on so you
can see. MLB was the big loser for us this week.
NBA were up a little bit, NHL up Soccer Mma
(42:46):
was a nice one. We cashed it. NASCAR last night.
Golf was frustrating. We lost two plays in golf that
I'll just I'm absolutely sick of. Tennis was a big one.
That's why we bring up that tennis special. Guys, don't
mess around. Go get that tennis special. That is like
one of the biggest money makers that we have as
a team at winning in the shadows. So no cricket plays.
(43:07):
Lacrosse went one and one. Danis furious about what happened
with lacrosse this weekend. So overall twenty five and twenty
we brought in three units. If you're flat betting two percent,
we brought in three point eight units. We do this
every Monday. Got to look at the sports that you
did good in and what you didn't do good in
and do a little deep dive and figure out what
(43:28):
went wrong and let's capitalize it. So we're seeing NBA
really well. The first round NBA Playoffs sucked for myself,
it's been really good ever since then. So we have
an NBA play that is up. Encourage everyone to go
get that that play with the line. The line was
insanely good, insanely good on the NBA play. So that
is a play that is up. And the Tennis special
as well. Get thirty Days. So anytime a tennis major
(43:51):
comes up, we're just like, we're just super exciting because
I know money is gonna be rolling in, so yeah,
that's gonna do it here for us. I love the
comment it's about the Royals team total under just blindly
taking the Royals team total under. I love plays like that.
I love plays that just rinse and repeat. The bill said,
he's not a trend HANDI kapper, I am. I love
(44:13):
trends like that. If I can take the same play
and go seven and two, six and one, those are
the kind of streaks that I'm looking for. So shout
out to GTV. That's a really, really good one. So
all right, guys, hit the like button pretty quick show
for us today. Tomorrow, we're gonna do it again. Remember,
just just because there's no there's no NHL, no NBA,
se doesn't mean you have to force bets in there.
(44:35):
Let's protect our bank rolls, let's protect our profits. We're
all trying to get better as a team here. Take
advantage of that tennis special, take advantage of the NBA
play that we have up. We're gonna do it again
first thing Tuesday morning. Good luck and all your plays everyone.
We'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care,
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