On Wednesday's edition of WagerTalk Today, Ralph Michaels shares NFL Trends and Angles that you need to know before betting Week 5 of NFL action and also gives a best bet on Thursday's West Viriginia vs BYU matchup. Teddy Covers stops by to talk Red Sox vs Yankees in MLB Playoff action and share his favorite play in Boise State vs Notre Dame. Andy Lang provides props and shares free picks – don't miss out!
00:00 Introduction
00:55 Ralph Michaels: CFB Week 6 WVU vs BYU
07:50 NFL Totals by Month/Turf Chart
12:00 Ralph's Weekend Warrior Promo
14:40 MLB Playoff Totals - Are Unders the Play?
15:40 Red Sox vs Yankees
19:45 CFB Week 6: Boise State vs Notre Dame
24:20 This NFL Line Makes NO SENSE - Broncos vs Eagles
29:25 Andy's Biggest Let Down Spot Wager
31:20 All Around the World - 3 Free Plays
00:00 Introduction
00:55 Ralph Michaels: CFB Week 6 WVU vs BYU
07:50 NFL Totals by Month/Turf Chart
12:00 Ralph's Weekend Warrior Promo
14:40 MLB Playoff Totals - Are Unders the Play?
15:40 Red Sox vs Yankees
19:45 CFB Week 6: Boise State vs Notre Dame
24:20 This NFL Line Makes NO SENSE - Broncos vs Eagles
29:25 Andy's Biggest Let Down Spot Wager
31:20 All Around the World - 3 Free Plays
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
You are live, my friend.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Welcome to wage you Talk today, the gold standard of
sports betting shows, where we talk to talk and walk
the walk.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
It is Wednesday.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
We're gonna do a little bit of a deep dive
here in college in NFL with Ralph Michaels. We're gonna
get a deep breakdown on West Virginia versus BYU, and
then we're gonna talk about week five trends.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
We got to talk about.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Field conditions, very very important to look at grass and
artificial turf and how does this affect the over unders.
He's got some pretty interesting numbers for you to keep
in the back of your mind when you're handicapping sports.
Teddy Covers is gonna join us. He's gonna talk Red
Sox and Yankees, Boise State, Notre Dame, and we're gonna
play this line makes no sense. Ross Benjamin is out
(00:42):
sick today. Normally Ross does this segment, So I'm gonna
try and fill those big shoes. So midweek, this is
when we get ready for the weekend. So you're in
the right spot. Let's get right to it with Ralph Michaels,
and let's start Ralph with college football in this West
Virginia BYU gosh, this few like a brutal spot for
West Virginia on the road lay couple losses. I guess
(01:07):
my question is this already baked into the line, because
this just feels like a monumental task for West Virginia
in this one.
Speaker 3 (01:15):
Yeah, you know I'm looking. I didn't check. Let me
give me one second. I make this my power ratings,
make this twelve.
Speaker 4 (01:24):
But again West Virginia is so banged up again, So
you my power rating when I start the week is
legitimate team power rating without making the adjustments.
Speaker 3 (01:34):
So you could be without your starting.
Speaker 4 (01:36):
Quarterback Marshal and if you do, Jalen Henderson will make
his first road start ever. And Henderson was ugly last
week seven of eighteen for thirty nine percent a two
point eight YPA. And then you look at the running
backs and last week they were also without their center.
Speaker 3 (01:53):
So the center should be back.
Speaker 4 (01:55):
They should have two running backs who have been very
limited to come back. Now I would actually be on
West Virginia Nico Mahershaal is day to day, but he really.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
Hasn't practiced well.
Speaker 4 (02:07):
And you figure I'd learned to turn off my ringer
and it's press calling me so that bikes Stephen worse.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Thanks pres, I'm on way to talk today. Thanks for watching.
So you know, you look at West Virginia. They start
the season off against Robert Morris. Not a good win.
Speaker 4 (02:22):
They good, Ohio, you should not get out gained to
a MAC team, even if it's on the road by
one hundred and seventy nine hours, but you're starting quarterback.
Then all of a sudden they look to have some light.
Rich Rod says, oh, we're gonna play well against Pittsburgh.
They're down, they have two big fourth quarter drives. They
end up finishing within eighty five yard edge and beating
Pittsburgh at home thirty one twenty four. They go on
(02:45):
the road get mauled again forty one to ten, and
then last week at home against a Utah team coming
off that embarrassing loss to Texas Tech, just mauled them,
running the ball forty eight times forty seven times for
two hundred and forty two yards, and Utah put up
five hundred and thirty two yards.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
In that game.
Speaker 4 (03:05):
So the West Virginia team has rushed the ball two
hundred and twenty eight times and passed the ball one
hundred twenty seven times. If Jalen Henderson starts this first
road game, they may throw ten passes. They are going
to run the ball, run the ball, run the ball,
and it's going to be a low scoring game. So
let's look at the BYU side. BYU needed to come
(03:27):
from behind last week to beat Colorado. Again, Colorado quite
a bit, quite a different team than they were last year.
They start the season beating Portland State, and if there
ever was a game that you want to call a
stat patter, it was that game, sixty nine to nothing
and a six zh six to fifty one yard edge.
(03:47):
They had a five hundred and fifty yard edge. So
when I look at BYU season the date stats, you
basically throw that game out against Stanford. They did hold
Stanford to one hundred and sixty three yards, winning twenty
seven to three at East Carolina.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
A good game, but they were plus two turnovers.
Speaker 4 (04:05):
The offense was not nearly as dynamic as the thirty
four points they scored. And then again last week, playing
a second straight road game in some altitude, they needed
to come from behind to win twenty four twenty one. Now,
if I say to you, BYU is averaging thirty nine
points a game. They're averaging four hundred and thirty six
(04:26):
yards per game. The response is, again, that's a good offense.
But when you take out that first game where they
scored six hundred yards and sixty nine points, and you
look at who they played. BYU played Stanford, Stanford's defense is.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
Number one hundred twenty one.
Speaker 4 (04:43):
BYU played Colorado, Colorado's defense is number one hundred and
twenty one, and then they also played East Carolina. The
offense numbers are good season to date, but they are
not good against legitimate competition.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
One thing that is good is.
Speaker 4 (05:01):
None of those teams have great offenses, so you can
only do look at stats at who you're playing. But
what I do like about what BYU has done is
they held all four opponents to a season low on offense.
So why you can't compare season to date stats with
these unique schedules, you can compare what those teams did
(05:21):
against the other opponents in the average.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
I will say this, if maryshal was.
Speaker 4 (05:26):
Playing and the at least practices today or tomorrow, they
actually may be a play for me on West Virginia.
Speaker 3 (05:34):
But without knowing if he's gonna play, and if.
Speaker 4 (05:36):
He is a little hobbled he is. You know he's
gonna be sacked. He got sacked seven times against Pittsburgh
and against Ohio. That's an offensive line you have to
worry about.
Speaker 3 (05:46):
And again, the.
Speaker 4 (05:47):
Rush attack two hundred and sixteen yards a game, four
point seven yards per carry BYU's offense, very fake with
the numbers. West Virginia's offense very poor. West Virginia defense.
Couple of good games and couple of gad games. But
you have to remember this, and Andy, you're well aware
of this. When your offense is horrific like they were
(06:10):
last week with four major injuries on offense, your defense
is on the field for so many plays that you
just get worn out. And that was the case with
West Virginia's defense. You know, they gave up twenty eight
to first half, but one of those were cheap. They
really only gave up twenty points with about two hundred
and fifty yards in the first half last week.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
Marriage all plays and practices.
Speaker 4 (06:33):
I will take those nineteen points, but here give me
under forty seven. And I want to break out one
system for you. If you are looking to back West
Virginia in the first five games of the season. Conference
away teams that are a dog of seven or more
with a total of forty eight or less. So you
(06:54):
have a decent sized dog with a low total. They
are actually one hundred ten and fifty five. That is
sixty seven percent against the spread with an incredible sample
size and going back all the way to two thousand
and seven, FYI, that also applies to Wisconsin, Minnesota, and
(07:15):
Nevada this week. So we'll see how those four big
conference the way dogs do with a low total.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Great breakdown, Yeah, yeah, check, keep checking the injury report.
You may get an extra few points here. So let's
talk NFL Week five. And you were telling me this
is really really interesting about the totals and the surface
that they play on, and this is a big, big
sample of numbers and it's very very interesting. So let's
(07:43):
pull up the graphic here where we're talking NFL totals
and again these are we're not saying go out and
blind bet this.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
But go over these numbers.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
We have to keep these in our heads when we're
looking at totals. So walk through the difference here between
artificial turf and grass as the sea and progresses.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
Well, again, when you're looking at this chart, you're not
going to see any wow numbers. And there's times when
I have charts where there's seventy percent records.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
And things like that.
Speaker 4 (08:09):
But the way it breaks down with the sample size
going all the way back to twenty fifteen. And I
do bring this often people say, why do you choose
twenty fifteen?
Speaker 3 (08:20):
Well, I go back to twenty fifteen because that's when
they move the extra point back.
Speaker 4 (08:24):
Everything changed, margins of victory changed, the most dynamic numbers
have changed. So's that's just a guide I sort of used.
But look at September guys, artificial turf. We're talking over
five hundred games of sample size artificial turf games in September.
Speaker 3 (08:40):
Forty five percent over under.
Speaker 4 (08:42):
That means fifty five percent to the under forty five
percent over grass teams just over the Mendoza line, they're
actually fifty one point three. Why well, we often hear
that defenses are ahead of offenses. You get more speed,
you can get a better pass rush on turf. But
when you look at the artificial turfs. Moving on, what
(09:03):
happens when we get inclement weather and it starts raining
or snowing. How many times have we seen a quarterback slip.
A wide receiver knows where he's going. DB's and linebackers
covering in pass coverage do not know where you're going.
So again, not wold numbers, but October November, December, January,
you add them up collectively, they're over fifty percent over under.
(09:23):
And the NFL as a whole over the last ten
years is basically a forty eight to fifty two league.
Forty eight percent overs, fifty two percent unders. So if
you find a situation that has all those overs.
Speaker 3 (09:36):
It's something you have to pay attention to.
Speaker 4 (09:38):
But the one thing to take away from this chart
is the grass fields Andy September. You see that they're
fifty one point three percent to the over. Why well,
these NFL fields are manicured immaculately. They have been growing.
They have been growing off spring, summer and fall. The
roots are awesome, you get great footing, and we i've
(10:00):
seen those go over. What happens starting October November, December, January.
The fields start to get worn out, you start to
get rain, you start to get snow. You also have
fields like Pittsburgh where the Panthers sometimes play on Saturday
and the Steelers play the next day. Those are things
that you have to keep track of. But from October, November,
(10:23):
December and January, basically, grass fields are fifty four percent
to the under and forty six percent to the over.
So I'm not telling you to bet every grass game
from here on out under.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
The total, but make sure you really like it.
Speaker 4 (10:39):
Enough to withstand a sample size of over one thousand
games since twenty fifteen. That type of data is something
you cannot ignore. Bit you like angles and trends or
not like them.
Speaker 3 (10:54):
This is history.
Speaker 4 (10:55):
Show us exactly what has happened, and it continues to
repeat itself season after season.
Speaker 2 (11:03):
Great stuff, Ralph. So yeah, weather it gets bad in
you're on grass. Yeah, make sure we're taking a look
at those unders.
Speaker 1 (11:08):
So yeah, listen.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
Three one two Talking about stats in the variance is
a couple percent. That's the difference between a profitable and
a not profitable NFL season. A few percentage points, literally
is the difference between profitable and not profitable.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
Having a three percent edge means you make money.
Speaker 4 (11:26):
You know, think about this, Andy, I should have done
this just for perspective, right. If you hit fifty six
percent with two thousand games sample size, imagine your profit.
What you would have made again, it's fifty one point
seven Tom goes aligned. So to have a plus five
percent with that many games, Uh, you and I might
be living in a rub.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
But had we done that for every game.
Speaker 1 (11:44):
From here on out, nothing would make me happier than
living in Aruba with you. Ralph. That would be a
dream come true.
Speaker 3 (11:53):
Is invited as well. By the way, just so you know.
Speaker 1 (11:57):
I'll make sure she knows. So, Ralph, it's a great Wednesday.
Tell her what you have a well.
Speaker 4 (12:01):
Again, guys, the Weekend Warrior three weeks ago, it was amazing.
The sales couple weeks ago got better last week even better. Andy,
I have a college five percent this week, but I
do want to mention it is Friday number two in
college football since the start of twenty twenty four. This
year college football fourteen and seven. My college football five
(12:24):
percents nine and one ninety percent. That Friday college football
five percent is available right now if you're looking at
the Weekend Warrior to get all of my college football Saturday,
all of my NFL Sunday, and a Monday night play
in the NFL IF I do have one number two
NFL in college football combined since the start of twenty
(12:46):
twenty four, college football and NFL plays rated four percent
and higher twenty six and eight seventy seven percent, and
I will have a strong four percent teaser this week.
It might even be a five percent, and I'm not
committing to that yet. NFL tasers just every NFL teaser
I've released twenty five and six eighty one percent, and
(13:08):
NFL teasers rated four percent or five percent, nine and
one ninety percent and sixteen and two eighty nine percent.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
Great stuff, Ralph, That'll get you to a ruber real quick.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
Thanks very much, Ralph and the pen everyone, thank you
very much. Uh yeah, guys, we know the Mendoza line
isn't five hundred. We're talking about the Mendoza ligne for
the over unders. We know Mendoza didn't wasn't hitting close
to five hundred.
Speaker 1 (13:37):
It's we're talking about it for that particular bet so.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
Uh yes, we're very well, very aware of what the
mendoz align actually is.
Speaker 1 (13:43):
Let's bring in Teddy.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
Covers, who's uh pinch hitting today? Ross is out sick. Teddy,
Thank you so much for doing this. We're gonna talk
Red Sox Yankees. We're gonna talk college football. Now, Ralph
uh Ross normally does a segment called this line makes
no sense.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
He does a great job with it. He talks about
a lot. So Ross isn't here.
Speaker 2 (14:01):
I'm gonna pitch you a line that I think makes
no sense, and you tell me if it no, I'm
andy wrong, it does make sense or not.
Speaker 1 (14:08):
So be prepared for this one.
Speaker 5 (14:10):
So real quick, just let me jump in about the
Mendoza line, because Ralph misspoke and he meant fifty two
point four percent.
Speaker 6 (14:18):
He said fifty one point seven and he meant it's
actually fifty two point three six minus one ten. So
Ralph slightly misspoke.
Speaker 5 (14:25):
Understand the concern about the Mendoza line, but in sports betting,
it's fifty two point four, not two hundred.
Speaker 2 (14:31):
All right, Yes, you don't want to be around two
hundred in the in the sports betting. So we're gonna
talk Red Soups and Yankees. We were talking last night.
I don't remember this as a trend, but we were
watching these just low scoring games yesterday, and we were like,
why didn't we take the unders on the first games
(14:52):
of the of the playoffs, and then you could have
laid off the Dodgers and read so a lot of unders?
Speaker 1 (14:57):
Is that a thing first day, first playoff games?
Speaker 2 (15:00):
When when when these teams are putting out some of
their best pitchers, batter's come out of the flatter.
Speaker 1 (15:05):
Was that just an anomala yesterday?
Speaker 5 (15:07):
No, I expect we'll see plenty of low scoring games.
My clients and I can.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
Oh.
Speaker 6 (15:10):
We got the first five under with Yankees Red Sox.
Speaker 5 (15:13):
I was a no sweat winner. Uh, you know, wonder
nothing after five. It's not unusual. I don't have the
hard numbers in front of me, but the in general,
as soon as the playoffs.
Speaker 6 (15:23):
Start, you know, your your days a bit there.
Speaker 5 (15:26):
There might be overs that you're gonna bet, but they're
in terms of ratio. I'm not looking for overs in
the Postseason'm looking for unders and and and so is
the market. And then we saw last night that you know,
I'm looking at the total seven seven, seven and six.
Speaker 6 (15:39):
You know, yeah, markets No.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
Well, speaking of the markets, no, wow, Uh, the markets
do not like the Boston starting pitcher. Bellow, we got
rodin for the Yankees, I mean Yankees minus one eighty two, wow,
and totals up a.
Speaker 1 (15:55):
Little bit seven and a half.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
It's a little bit a little bit higher, half run
higher one and a half run higher than the six.
Speaker 1 (16:02):
What's your breakdown on this matchup today?
Speaker 5 (16:04):
So I'm gonna start talking about starting pitching, and frankly,
when it comes to postseason baseball, starting pitching is probably
the least important piece of the equation, you know, and
the BUTTL the lines are set that way. Certainly, the
markets are going to react to starting pitching. And we
know already going in that what half these games, if
not more, we're going to be decided by the bullpens.
You know, That's the way it plays out in October,
(16:27):
and that's the way I wouldn't be surprised to do
this game.
Speaker 6 (16:29):
That being said, College Toroddan has been brilliant. You know.
Speaker 5 (16:31):
We allowed one or two runs in nine of his
last ten starts and three in the ten.
Speaker 6 (16:36):
A quality start machine, and the Yankees won for eight
and two in those ten games.
Speaker 5 (16:41):
You know, he held opponents to an AL best one
to eighty eight batting average. Full season, set a career
high with eighteen wins. The guy's an ace. He faced
the Red Sox once after the All Star break. He
allowed a grand total of one hit in that game,
although we did walk five. Yankees won that game by
five runs. So he did lose twice to Boston in
(17:02):
June worth noting for full season numbers, but the one
most recent start was pretty darn good. Brian Bellow, on
the other hand, had five starts in September, including one
against the Yankees.
Speaker 6 (17:11):
He gave up three or more runs in all five.
Speaker 5 (17:14):
Of those starts, did not have a good closing stretch
at all. That said, two previous starts against the Yankees
in twenty twenty five, both times seven innings, zero runs allowed,
Aaron Judge two of twenty one against Bellow, no dingers,
John Carlos Dan two singles in ten at bats against him.
Speaker 6 (17:33):
He's pitched at Yankee Stadium five times.
Speaker 5 (17:36):
In his career, three to one with a one point
four to four ERA in those five starts. So Bellow's
current form nowhere near Roddons, but his track record against
the Yankees and his track rgred on this field is
pretty freaking good.
Speaker 6 (17:49):
And then you hear his quote, you know, through a translator.
Speaker 5 (17:53):
Quote, I feel like as soon as you step on
the field, you feel the pressure from the fans, even
when you're in the bullpen and you go to the mound.
For me, nothing ages preparation wise, but I feel like
that extra pressure from the fans and from everybody it
gets me going. There are pressure pitchers, there are not
pressure pitchers. Bellow seems to be one of the guys
who can handle the pressure. Of course, he's gonna face
(18:15):
a different lineup tonight than what they saw last night.
Aaron Boone's probably gonna put the lefties in. You know,
Ben Rice is gonna start at first base. One would
think Jess Chisholm at second, Ryan McMahon at third, So
it'll be something different from last night. But last night
the Yankee said zero walks, thirteen strikeouts, one of seven
with runners in scoring position, had a prime opportunity to
tie or win the game. In the ninth, bases loaded
(18:36):
nobody out and they couldn't get a run across, demoralizing
for the home team. You know, the Socks bullpens fresh
all right, Only Chapman got used, and even Chapman they
can use again. He yes, he needed twenty four pitches
to get the four outs last night, but he went
back to back games in both series against the Yankees
down the Stretch one and August one in September, didn't
(18:58):
give up a run and got a save in both
second games of those back to backs. And what do
we see now in this wildcard round? You know, twelve
series over the last three years, so we have some
first round history. The team that wins game one is
ten and two in game two over the last three years.
I don't want the home favorite here. I don't believe
this price. The Red Sox nine and four in the
(19:18):
regular season against the Yankees five and two at Yankee Stadium.
Speaker 6 (19:22):
They won again last night. You know, ten and four,
six and two after last night, who's the pressure on
all the pressures on the Yankees here?
Speaker 5 (19:30):
Give me Boston at the plus price Red Sox or
pass for this bet.
Speaker 2 (19:36):
Titans even throws out Red Sox minus one and a
half plus.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
Two forty three, just throwing it, just throwing it out there.
So I think you.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
Got some you had some agreement on this game. Teddy,
Let's go to Boise State and Notre Dame. I gotta
tell you this, So I have two friends that live
really close to me, one Notre Dame fan, one big
Ohio State fan, Myle Heights Ohio State fans. He's very
good at knowing his team, and he he says that
(20:04):
he loves the Ohio State team and by the end
of the season, Notre Dame terrifies him. He thinks Notre
Dame is going to be like the team that he's
scared of the most if everybody's healthy. So we got
Notre Dame was a huge favorite here against Boise State,
big big total over under sixty two and a half.
Speaker 1 (20:22):
What's your take on Boise State Notre Dame.
Speaker 5 (20:25):
Yeah, so I count my openers as what I write
down on Sunday night. I usually write it down around
halftime of the Sunday night game opener. For this game,
I'm calling seventeen and a half for Notre Dame sixty
four and a half. So we've seen a little money
for the favorite, We've seen a lot of money, and
we've seen money for the under in this one, I'm
not sure I agree with either one of those. To
(20:45):
be perfectly honest, Poise had that bad opening loss at USF.
They're non competitive defeating that ball game. Since that time,
the offense fifty one, forty nine and forty seven points
scored over over over over team totals over full game over,
and they faced I mean, I'm not gonna call air
Force an app state anything like Notre Name. They based
at least two decent opponents during that band, so it's
(21:05):
not just complete bottom feeders.
Speaker 6 (21:07):
It's an Offens's clicking on all cylinders.
Speaker 5 (21:11):
We like the quarterback Maddix Manson, who was pretty good
last year. He has been pretty good in recent weeks.
And then we look at Boise step up games. You know,
how does Pois do when they step up in class
against the elite teams.
Speaker 6 (21:23):
You know, they faced Penn State in the playoffs last year.
They lost thirty one to fourteen.
Speaker 5 (21:27):
I don't think Notre Dame has the same defense like
Penn State had last year, but Boise's defense got gashed
in that contest. Don't only give up thirty one, but
they allowed two hundred rushing to hundred close to undred passing.
Speaker 6 (21:37):
They didn't win the line of scrimmage and the game
stayed under me.
Speaker 5 (21:40):
But that said, they were held to a pair of
field They held the field goals, they missed a pair.
Speaker 6 (21:44):
They had thirteen penalties. It was not a good game.
Speaker 5 (21:46):
For Boise against Penn State in the playoffs. That said,
they faced Oregon last year. They lost that game thirty
seven thirty four. They led at halftime, they led in
the fourth quarter. They allowed one hundred yard kick return touchdown.
That game flew over the total. Twenty twenty three at Washington,
they lost fifty six to nineteen. Couldn't get stops. That
game flew over the total. At Memphis they lost thirty
five to thirty two. That game flew over the total.
(22:08):
Versus UCLA and A Bowl game lost thirty five to
twenty two. That game flew over the total. Note the
theme here, over over over over with Poise and Madsen
no name. They had a pretty high profile lost Week
one as well to Miami in the opener.
Speaker 6 (22:24):
Since that time, they hung forty on A and M.
That's a good defense.
Speaker 5 (22:27):
Fifty six on Purdue, fifty six versus Arkansas, you know,
the beatdown so bad that the Razorbacks got their head
coach fired. You know, you know that's Pittman is not
going to send you Christmas cards to a Marcus Freeman
company for what they did last week on their home field.
Speaker 6 (22:45):
The frosh quarterback CJ. Car has been pretty darn good too.
Speaker 5 (22:49):
The defense has struggled, though last week was better, but
you know, We've seen some ugby performances already, and the
defensive line was area concerned coming into the season. This
defensive line has been pushed around. Remember Al Golden was
the DEFENSEI cornator linelast year. He got them the National
Championship game. Chris ash been the defense corner of this year.
And if you want to talk about, you know, coordinator
drop offs, it's been pretty significant, at least in this
(23:10):
better's opinion. So I don't view Notre Dames defense anywhere
near what it was a year ago. I expect the
Irish to get their fair share, all right, team total
forty and a half forty one and a half four
Notre Dame. That tells you all you need to know.
The question here is how many points does Bois get
against this defense? And I think the Boise side correlates
(23:32):
with the over in this ball game.
Speaker 6 (23:34):
I think boys will get enough. I like over between the.
Speaker 5 (23:38):
Fighting Irish and the Broncos. Three point thirty Eastern, twelve
thirty Pacific on Saturday.
Speaker 2 (23:45):
Great breakdown from Teddy covers we got all around the
world coming up. Where I'm going to give out Teddy,
I'm going to give out a plus one forty five
on the single biggest letdown spot I think.
Speaker 1 (23:54):
I've ever seen in all of sports.
Speaker 2 (23:57):
I cannot think of a bigger letdown spot in all
of sports. And I'm getting plus one forty five on
a play, So stay tuned for that.
Speaker 1 (24:06):
Let's do. Let's let's do.
Speaker 2 (24:08):
This line makes no sense. Uh you guys know me.
I bet props. Uh so whenever, whenever, whenever your boy
starts talking spreads in NFL, look out. But I gotta
I gotta do this one, Teddy, So tell me what
you think. This line makes no sense. Philadelphia minus three
(24:28):
and a half versus the Denver Broncos. The pass defenses
on paper are similar, Broncos a bit better rush defense.
And I have an Eagles team that is not really
winning by margin. Four point win against Dallas, How good
does that look? Three point win against banged up Kansas
City whose leading wide receiver was Taekwon Thornton. In that game,
a guy who knew England cut in the offseason, they get,
(24:51):
as you well know. Don't mean to bring up demons,
but the luckiest cover ever against the Rams when they
could have lost outright, but they definitely should have covered.
And then no one score win against Tampa, who didn't
have Mike Evans, Chris Chris Godwin Baker had the bicep injuries.
I get the Broncos, who only they have two losses,
but a one point loss at Colts Colts probably should
(25:12):
be four and oh not for the wide receiver dropping
a ball in the end zone. Three point loss at Chargers.
They were winning that game with three minutes to go.
The Eagles cannot pass the ball. They have the worst
passing offense. Hertz was oh for eight in the second
half last week. I got Philly, who's the third worst
yards per play on offense Denver's tenth, Denver eighth, and
yards per play on defense Phillies eighteenth.
Speaker 1 (25:35):
This line makes no sense. This should be much.
Speaker 2 (25:37):
Closer to a pick him. Philly's at home, so maybe
I make him a minus one. But over that key
number of three, this line makes no sense.
Speaker 5 (25:45):
So from a powering standpoint, before Monday Night football, the
Eagles minus five for this game and the Marcus red
five and a half.
Speaker 6 (25:53):
So what we've seen.
Speaker 5 (25:55):
Is a significant reaction in favor of Denver after they
blew out a bad Bengals team on Monday Night.
Speaker 6 (26:04):
All Right, when we talk about Philadelphia.
Speaker 5 (26:08):
All right, when I talk about box scores, Eagles could
care less about box scores. Yes, they're what one of
the I forget the only team or the second team
in NFL history to win their first four games while
getting out yarded in all four of those games. Philly
doesn't care about box scores. Philly is a team that
knows how to win. Denver not so much in that regard.
(26:28):
There are two victories this season at home against Tennessee
at home against Cincinnati.
Speaker 6 (26:34):
That's not a who's who are good teams? All right?
Speaker 5 (26:37):
Say what you want about the Eagles offense, and don't
tell me Philly can't pass. I watched him pass all
over the field when they rally from behind when they
needed to pass. They can pass just fine. You know
we've seen Hurts light up the scoreboard in that regard
in the game against Tampa. Sure, the covers have been lucky,
they had a couple of lover lucky covers. But the
(26:59):
bottom lie is this line could easily be higher. The
markets have already significantly adjusted for Denver's success against bottom feeders.
And do you trust Bonix traveling east again for early
Star game, again against a pretty good Philly defense. I'm
not so sure I do. There you go, This line
makes perfect sense, and in fact, it might even be sure.
Speaker 3 (27:22):
Damn it, boo.
Speaker 1 (27:24):
This is why I don't do NFL spreads.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
I'll stick to my props. We had a question from
Adam earlier. I wanted to get your thoughts on Adam.
Gonna know it's not a long teaser. Any consideration to
teasing the Browns at plus four and a half to
ten and a half Since the over unders only thirty
six and a half, the line could head lower of
Vikings injuries confirmed. Teddy, what do you think about teasing
(27:49):
the Browns up to ten and a half.
Speaker 6 (27:51):
So you got a rookie quarterback and to be making
his first career start against the Brian Flores defense, you
can tease it. I ain't going there. I mean you can't.
You can't.
Speaker 5 (28:02):
It doesn't fall into wrong and it's a kind of
game where things go wrong for Cleveland. It could spiral,
and those aren't the games I want teasers.
Speaker 6 (28:11):
I mean for me.
Speaker 5 (28:12):
You know, everyone makes their own betting decisions, certainly from
a teaser standpoint. There are some good opportunities out there,
and I'm not trying to talk you out of it,
but there's not a chance in hell.
Speaker 6 (28:21):
I make that, not me.
Speaker 1 (28:23):
Yeah, rookie starting rookie quarterback.
Speaker 2 (28:26):
Nothing that defense, yeah yeah, true, true, And it's the Browns.
You're putting your hard earned money on the Browns and
starting working quarterbacks up, Teddy, thank you so much for
jumping into doing this last minute.
Speaker 1 (28:39):
Tell everyone what you have up. But wait you talk.
Speaker 5 (28:41):
Sure we'll do it again on Friday. And look, the
playoff baseball has been really good. Last year, we had
a ten game winning streak in the postseason. Right now,
I'm riding. I won last night with the easy right side.
I'm eleven and three betting playoff baseball, so a pretty
good run. Football has been a pretty good run. Well,
rolse got some amazing numbers. I might let me talking
for eighteen and two. Those are fantastic nine ones. That's unbelievable.
(29:05):
I'm six and two in college and five and two
in the NFL, and over the last two weeks that right,
I get it exactly, so I don't screw up five
or two NFL, six and two college, So it's pretty good.
Speaker 6 (29:18):
The playoffs have been pretty good.
Speaker 5 (29:19):
NBA's coming up, that's been pretty good check at the
homepage w dot buzz backslash TC.
Speaker 6 (29:24):
Let's partner up, see what we can make some money together.
Speaker 1 (29:27):
Teddy, you want? You want to stick around here?
Speaker 2 (29:29):
I'll do my plus one forty five, I'll do I'll
do my biggest letdown spot in.
Speaker 1 (29:33):
The history of sports.
Speaker 6 (29:33):
You ready, I'm ready?
Speaker 1 (29:35):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (29:36):
European Golf Tournament Cameron Smith is plus one forty five
against Matthew Fitzpatrick. Is there a bigger letdown spot than
the European Ryder Cup team who have been partying all
week trying to come back.
Speaker 1 (29:49):
This guy's going to try.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
And play a tournament this week after winning the Ryder Cup.
They spent two weeks over in the US getting their
body clocks on a American time. They win on Sunday,
social media videos galore of them partying all night Sunday
and Monday, and this guy's gonna try and play four
rounds of golf and I'm getting a completely wrested Cameron
(30:14):
Smith in wind. I cannot think of a bigger letdown
spot than a golfer just coming off of his lifelong
dream of winning the Ryder Cup and then trying to
play a couple days after a night of partying and
travel and I get plus one on this.
Speaker 6 (30:29):
Love it conceptually? Is Cam Smith any good?
Speaker 4 (30:32):
Though?
Speaker 6 (30:33):
That's the only question.
Speaker 2 (30:36):
He struggled at the Majors. He's coming over from the
live tour. I think he wants to put on a show.
There's multiple live guys playing this week, but I will
fade every guy on that Ryder Cup team. They Teddy,
they might still be drunk. There's a chance they are
drunk right now. So that's my biggest letdown in all
the sports. So all right, thank you very much, Teddy Covers.
(30:57):
Can't wait to see again on Friday. Teddy will be
joining us for football Friday. I got a couple other
spots here, Chris, let's pull up the all around the
world here, let's do a couple of MLB plays along
with this. Cameron Smith plus one forty five Padres and Cubs.
Right up for the Padres. The Cubs are starting with Kittridge.
Then a Manga looks like he will continue the game.
(31:19):
The Cubs did use some bullpen arms yesterday, including Kittridge,
but Manga like give up twenty earned runs and twenty
seven point two innings in September. That's his worst month. Meanwhile,
you got ceascoring for the Padres. September was arguably his
best month. So we got two pitchers going in the
opposite directions. You're getting a good price on the Padres
(31:39):
in Tokyo. Brandon did a good job of bringing this
one up. Yesterday, Reds and the Dodgers. Take a look
at this Reds over two and a half on the
team total. It's only minus one thirty. Yammamato is shaky
at home. The Dodgers' bullpen is really bad. Dodgers won yesterday,
but the Reds put up five runs, so this could
be just a rent a Rens and repeat for the
(32:00):
Reds over the team total in that series against the Dodgers.
So uh, Cody says, golf, you golf better drunk?
Speaker 1 (32:09):
Yes, John Daily.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
He John Daily won the Major here in Indianapolis, like
close to where I lived, And my buddy knows the
bartender that served John Daily the night before his winning round.
John Daly has been opened like he was blacked out
in his winning rate. He doesn't even remember it. So yes,
John Daly is the He's the exception, not the rule,
not the rule. So all right, I have one play
(32:32):
up guys to tell you about. This starts in a
couple hours. Jahan, who does a great job with our
cricket plays, he's found a play this week that works
incredibly well. We cashed it already today and we're going
right back to it. This is a there's a line
that the books have completely overlooked. It's a cross sport
parlay that starts in two hours.
Speaker 1 (32:49):
It's up for sale. It's a three percent best bet.
Speaker 2 (32:51):
Like I said, we've already hit this play this week,
so go grab that. It's the only play we have
up coming off with a really nice win on five
dollars Tuesday on Contender Series and as always the Weekend Warrior.
You know, we put up this special just like on
a whim in the first weekend of NFL, and it's
turned out to be one of the most popular specials,
So I think we're probably gonna be doing this for
(33:12):
the foreseeable future. Pick your handicapper and you get every
football play Saturday and Sunday. You're also getting any five
percent plays. It's only forty nine dollars and we're gonna
throw in Monday.
Speaker 1 (33:23):
Night football for free. So Weekend Warrior.
Speaker 2 (33:26):
Forty nine dollars all plays college NFL pick your favorite
handicapper again.
Speaker 1 (33:32):
This is one of those We.
Speaker 2 (33:33):
Run these promos and sometimes they do okay, and then
sometimes their home runs like this one. So appreciate everyone,
and it's a very very smart way to take advantage
of your favorite handicapper at a discounted price.
Speaker 1 (33:44):
So all right, that's gonna do it for us.
Speaker 2 (33:46):
We're gonna be back tomorrow or Yannie's gonna join us
and we get to start talking UFC. We got a big,
big UFC card tomorrow, and of course we're gonna get
ready for college football, MLB playoffs and NFL. Thank you
so much for joining us. Do not forget to hit
that like button, Do not forget to leave a comment
below tell us what your best bet is for today,
and don't forget to subscribe to the wager Talk YouTube
(34:06):
channel and hit that bell. You get notified when all
of our videos come out, when all of our shows
go live, tons of individual breakdown videos. So if you're
thinking about betting on a college game NFL, check out
our channel. We probably have a breakdown on it. Thanks
very much for joining us. Good luck on all your
bets today.
Speaker 1 (34:22):
Take care
You are live, my friend.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Welcome to wage you Talk today, the gold standard of
sports betting shows, where we talk to talk and walk
the walk.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
It is Wednesday.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
We're gonna do a little bit of a deep dive
here in college in NFL with Ralph Michaels. We're gonna
get a deep breakdown on West Virginia versus BYU, and
then we're gonna talk about week five trends.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
We got to talk about.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Field conditions, very very important to look at grass and
artificial turf and how does this affect the over unders.
He's got some pretty interesting numbers for you to keep
in the back of your mind when you're handicapping sports.
Teddy Covers is gonna join us. He's gonna talk Red
Sox and Yankees, Boise State, Notre Dame, and we're gonna
play this line makes no sense. Ross Benjamin is out
(00:42):
sick today. Normally Ross does this segment, So I'm gonna
try and fill those big shoes. So midweek, this is
when we get ready for the weekend. So you're in
the right spot. Let's get right to it with Ralph Michaels,
and let's start Ralph with college football in this West
Virginia BYU gosh, this few like a brutal spot for
West Virginia on the road lay couple losses. I guess
(01:07):
my question is this already baked into the line, because
this just feels like a monumental task for West Virginia
in this one.
Speaker 3 (01:15):
Yeah, you know I'm looking. I didn't check. Let me
give me one second. I make this my power ratings,
make this twelve.
Speaker 4 (01:24):
But again West Virginia is so banged up again, So
you my power rating when I start the week is
legitimate team power rating without making the adjustments.
Speaker 3 (01:34):
So you could be without your starting.
Speaker 4 (01:36):
Quarterback Marshal and if you do, Jalen Henderson will make
his first road start ever. And Henderson was ugly last
week seven of eighteen for thirty nine percent a two
point eight YPA. And then you look at the running
backs and last week they were also without their center.
Speaker 3 (01:53):
So the center should be back.
Speaker 4 (01:55):
They should have two running backs who have been very
limited to come back. Now I would actually be on
West Virginia Nico Mahershaal is day to day, but he really.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
Hasn't practiced well.
Speaker 4 (02:07):
And you figure I'd learned to turn off my ringer
and it's press calling me so that bikes Stephen worse.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Thanks pres, I'm on way to talk today. Thanks for watching.
So you know, you look at West Virginia. They start
the season off against Robert Morris. Not a good win.
Speaker 4 (02:22):
They good, Ohio, you should not get out gained to
a MAC team, even if it's on the road by
one hundred and seventy nine hours, but you're starting quarterback.
Then all of a sudden they look to have some light.
Rich Rod says, oh, we're gonna play well against Pittsburgh.
They're down, they have two big fourth quarter drives. They
end up finishing within eighty five yard edge and beating
Pittsburgh at home thirty one twenty four. They go on
(02:45):
the road get mauled again forty one to ten, and
then last week at home against a Utah team coming
off that embarrassing loss to Texas Tech, just mauled them,
running the ball forty eight times forty seven times for
two hundred and forty two yards, and Utah put up
five hundred and thirty two yards.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
In that game.
Speaker 4 (03:05):
So the West Virginia team has rushed the ball two
hundred and twenty eight times and passed the ball one
hundred twenty seven times. If Jalen Henderson starts this first
road game, they may throw ten passes. They are going
to run the ball, run the ball, run the ball,
and it's going to be a low scoring game. So
let's look at the BYU side. BYU needed to come
(03:27):
from behind last week to beat Colorado. Again, Colorado quite
a bit, quite a different team than they were last year.
They start the season beating Portland State, and if there
ever was a game that you want to call a
stat patter, it was that game, sixty nine to nothing
and a six zh six to fifty one yard edge.
(03:47):
They had a five hundred and fifty yard edge. So
when I look at BYU season the date stats, you
basically throw that game out against Stanford. They did hold
Stanford to one hundred and sixty three yards, winning twenty
seven to three at East Carolina.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
A good game, but they were plus two turnovers.
Speaker 4 (04:05):
The offense was not nearly as dynamic as the thirty
four points they scored. And then again last week, playing
a second straight road game in some altitude, they needed
to come from behind to win twenty four twenty one. Now,
if I say to you, BYU is averaging thirty nine
points a game. They're averaging four hundred and thirty six
(04:26):
yards per game. The response is, again, that's a good offense.
But when you take out that first game where they
scored six hundred yards and sixty nine points, and you
look at who they played. BYU played Stanford, Stanford's defense is.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
Number one hundred twenty one.
Speaker 4 (04:43):
BYU played Colorado, Colorado's defense is number one hundred and
twenty one, and then they also played East Carolina. The
offense numbers are good season to date, but they are
not good against legitimate competition.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
One thing that is good is.
Speaker 4 (05:01):
None of those teams have great offenses, so you can
only do look at stats at who you're playing. But
what I do like about what BYU has done is
they held all four opponents to a season low on offense.
So why you can't compare season to date stats with
these unique schedules, you can compare what those teams did
(05:21):
against the other opponents in the average.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
I will say this, if maryshal was.
Speaker 4 (05:26):
Playing and the at least practices today or tomorrow, they
actually may be a play for me on West Virginia.
Speaker 3 (05:34):
But without knowing if he's gonna play, and if.
Speaker 4 (05:36):
He is a little hobbled he is. You know he's
gonna be sacked. He got sacked seven times against Pittsburgh
and against Ohio. That's an offensive line you have to
worry about.
Speaker 3 (05:46):
And again, the.
Speaker 4 (05:47):
Rush attack two hundred and sixteen yards a game, four
point seven yards per carry BYU's offense, very fake with
the numbers. West Virginia's offense very poor. West Virginia defense.
Couple of good games and couple of gad games. But
you have to remember this, and Andy, you're well aware
of this. When your offense is horrific like they were
(06:10):
last week with four major injuries on offense, your defense
is on the field for so many plays that you
just get worn out. And that was the case with
West Virginia's defense. You know, they gave up twenty eight
to first half, but one of those were cheap. They
really only gave up twenty points with about two hundred
and fifty yards in the first half last week.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
Marriage all plays and practices.
Speaker 4 (06:33):
I will take those nineteen points, but here give me
under forty seven. And I want to break out one
system for you. If you are looking to back West
Virginia in the first five games of the season. Conference
away teams that are a dog of seven or more
with a total of forty eight or less. So you
(06:54):
have a decent sized dog with a low total. They
are actually one hundred ten and fifty five. That is
sixty seven percent against the spread with an incredible sample
size and going back all the way to two thousand
and seven, FYI, that also applies to Wisconsin, Minnesota, and
(07:15):
Nevada this week. So we'll see how those four big
conference the way dogs do with a low total.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Great breakdown, Yeah, yeah, check, keep checking the injury report.
You may get an extra few points here. So let's
talk NFL Week five. And you were telling me this
is really really interesting about the totals and the surface
that they play on, and this is a big, big
sample of numbers and it's very very interesting. So let's
(07:43):
pull up the graphic here where we're talking NFL totals
and again these are we're not saying go out and
blind bet this.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
But go over these numbers.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
We have to keep these in our heads when we're
looking at totals. So walk through the difference here between
artificial turf and grass as the sea and progresses.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
Well, again, when you're looking at this chart, you're not
going to see any wow numbers. And there's times when
I have charts where there's seventy percent records.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
And things like that.
Speaker 4 (08:09):
But the way it breaks down with the sample size
going all the way back to twenty fifteen. And I
do bring this often people say, why do you choose
twenty fifteen?
Speaker 3 (08:20):
Well, I go back to twenty fifteen because that's when
they move the extra point back.
Speaker 4 (08:24):
Everything changed, margins of victory changed, the most dynamic numbers
have changed. So's that's just a guide I sort of used.
But look at September guys, artificial turf. We're talking over
five hundred games of sample size artificial turf games in September.
Speaker 3 (08:40):
Forty five percent over under.
Speaker 4 (08:42):
That means fifty five percent to the under forty five
percent over grass teams just over the Mendoza line, they're
actually fifty one point three. Why well, we often hear
that defenses are ahead of offenses. You get more speed,
you can get a better pass rush on turf. But
when you look at the artificial turfs. Moving on, what
(09:03):
happens when we get inclement weather and it starts raining
or snowing. How many times have we seen a quarterback slip.
A wide receiver knows where he's going. DB's and linebackers
covering in pass coverage do not know where you're going.
So again, not wold numbers, but October November, December, January,
you add them up collectively, they're over fifty percent over under.
(09:23):
And the NFL as a whole over the last ten
years is basically a forty eight to fifty two league.
Forty eight percent overs, fifty two percent unders. So if
you find a situation that has all those overs.
Speaker 3 (09:36):
It's something you have to pay attention to.
Speaker 4 (09:38):
But the one thing to take away from this chart
is the grass fields Andy September. You see that they're
fifty one point three percent to the over. Why well,
these NFL fields are manicured immaculately. They have been growing.
They have been growing off spring, summer and fall. The
roots are awesome, you get great footing, and we i've
(10:00):
seen those go over. What happens starting October November, December, January.
The fields start to get worn out, you start to
get rain, you start to get snow. You also have
fields like Pittsburgh where the Panthers sometimes play on Saturday
and the Steelers play the next day. Those are things
that you have to keep track of. But from October, November,
(10:23):
December and January, basically, grass fields are fifty four percent
to the under and forty six percent to the over.
So I'm not telling you to bet every grass game
from here on out under.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
The total, but make sure you really like it.
Speaker 4 (10:39):
Enough to withstand a sample size of over one thousand
games since twenty fifteen. That type of data is something
you cannot ignore. Bit you like angles and trends or
not like them.
Speaker 3 (10:54):
This is history.
Speaker 4 (10:55):
Show us exactly what has happened, and it continues to
repeat itself season after season.
Speaker 2 (11:03):
Great stuff, Ralph. So yeah, weather it gets bad in
you're on grass. Yeah, make sure we're taking a look
at those unders.
Speaker 1 (11:08):
So yeah, listen.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
Three one two Talking about stats in the variance is
a couple percent. That's the difference between a profitable and
a not profitable NFL season. A few percentage points, literally
is the difference between profitable and not profitable.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
Having a three percent edge means you make money.
Speaker 4 (11:26):
You know, think about this, Andy, I should have done
this just for perspective, right. If you hit fifty six
percent with two thousand games sample size, imagine your profit.
What you would have made again, it's fifty one point
seven Tom goes aligned. So to have a plus five
percent with that many games, Uh, you and I might
be living in a rub.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
But had we done that for every game.
Speaker 1 (11:44):
From here on out, nothing would make me happier than
living in Aruba with you. Ralph. That would be a
dream come true.
Speaker 3 (11:53):
Is invited as well. By the way, just so you know.
Speaker 1 (11:57):
I'll make sure she knows. So, Ralph, it's a great Wednesday.
Tell her what you have a well.
Speaker 4 (12:01):
Again, guys, the Weekend Warrior three weeks ago, it was amazing.
The sales couple weeks ago got better last week even better. Andy,
I have a college five percent this week, but I
do want to mention it is Friday number two in
college football since the start of twenty twenty four. This
year college football fourteen and seven. My college football five
(12:24):
percents nine and one ninety percent. That Friday college football
five percent is available right now if you're looking at
the Weekend Warrior to get all of my college football Saturday,
all of my NFL Sunday, and a Monday night play
in the NFL IF I do have one number two
NFL in college football combined since the start of twenty
(12:46):
twenty four, college football and NFL plays rated four percent
and higher twenty six and eight seventy seven percent, and
I will have a strong four percent teaser this week.
It might even be a five percent, and I'm not
committing to that yet. NFL tasers just every NFL teaser
I've released twenty five and six eighty one percent, and
(13:08):
NFL teasers rated four percent or five percent, nine and
one ninety percent and sixteen and two eighty nine percent.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
Great stuff, Ralph, That'll get you to a ruber real quick.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
Thanks very much, Ralph and the pen everyone, thank you
very much. Uh yeah, guys, we know the Mendoza line
isn't five hundred. We're talking about the Mendoza ligne for
the over unders. We know Mendoza didn't wasn't hitting close
to five hundred.
Speaker 1 (13:37):
It's we're talking about it for that particular bet so.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
Uh yes, we're very well, very aware of what the
mendoz align actually is.
Speaker 1 (13:43):
Let's bring in Teddy.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
Covers, who's uh pinch hitting today? Ross is out sick. Teddy,
Thank you so much for doing this. We're gonna talk
Red Sox Yankees. We're gonna talk college football. Now, Ralph
uh Ross normally does a segment called this line makes
no sense.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
He does a great job with it. He talks about
a lot. So Ross isn't here.
Speaker 2 (14:01):
I'm gonna pitch you a line that I think makes
no sense, and you tell me if it no, I'm
andy wrong, it does make sense or not.
Speaker 1 (14:08):
So be prepared for this one.
Speaker 5 (14:10):
So real quick, just let me jump in about the
Mendoza line, because Ralph misspoke and he meant fifty two
point four percent.
Speaker 6 (14:18):
He said fifty one point seven and he meant it's
actually fifty two point three six minus one ten. So
Ralph slightly misspoke.
Speaker 5 (14:25):
Understand the concern about the Mendoza line, but in sports betting,
it's fifty two point four, not two hundred.
Speaker 2 (14:31):
All right, Yes, you don't want to be around two
hundred in the in the sports betting. So we're gonna
talk Red Soups and Yankees. We were talking last night.
I don't remember this as a trend, but we were
watching these just low scoring games yesterday, and we were like,
why didn't we take the unders on the first games
(14:52):
of the of the playoffs, and then you could have
laid off the Dodgers and read so a lot of unders?
Speaker 1 (14:57):
Is that a thing first day, first playoff games?
Speaker 2 (15:00):
When when when these teams are putting out some of
their best pitchers, batter's come out of the flatter.
Speaker 1 (15:05):
Was that just an anomala yesterday?
Speaker 5 (15:07):
No, I expect we'll see plenty of low scoring games.
My clients and I can.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
Oh.
Speaker 6 (15:10):
We got the first five under with Yankees Red Sox.
Speaker 5 (15:13):
I was a no sweat winner. Uh, you know, wonder
nothing after five. It's not unusual. I don't have the
hard numbers in front of me, but the in general,
as soon as the playoffs.
Speaker 6 (15:23):
Start, you know, your your days a bit there.
Speaker 5 (15:26):
There might be overs that you're gonna bet, but they're
in terms of ratio. I'm not looking for overs in
the Postseason'm looking for unders and and and so is
the market. And then we saw last night that you know,
I'm looking at the total seven seven, seven and six.
Speaker 6 (15:39):
You know, yeah, markets No.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
Well, speaking of the markets, no, wow, Uh, the markets
do not like the Boston starting pitcher. Bellow, we got
rodin for the Yankees, I mean Yankees minus one eighty two, wow,
and totals up a.
Speaker 1 (15:55):
Little bit seven and a half.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
It's a little bit a little bit higher, half run
higher one and a half run higher than the six.
Speaker 1 (16:02):
What's your breakdown on this matchup today?
Speaker 5 (16:04):
So I'm gonna start talking about starting pitching, and frankly,
when it comes to postseason baseball, starting pitching is probably
the least important piece of the equation, you know, and
the BUTTL the lines are set that way. Certainly, the
markets are going to react to starting pitching. And we
know already going in that what half these games, if
not more, we're going to be decided by the bullpens.
You know, That's the way it plays out in October,
(16:27):
and that's the way I wouldn't be surprised to do
this game.
Speaker 6 (16:29):
That being said, College Toroddan has been brilliant. You know.
Speaker 5 (16:31):
We allowed one or two runs in nine of his
last ten starts and three in the ten.
Speaker 6 (16:36):
A quality start machine, and the Yankees won for eight
and two in those ten games.
Speaker 5 (16:41):
You know, he held opponents to an AL best one
to eighty eight batting average. Full season, set a career
high with eighteen wins. The guy's an ace. He faced
the Red Sox once after the All Star break. He
allowed a grand total of one hit in that game,
although we did walk five. Yankees won that game by
five runs. So he did lose twice to Boston in
(17:02):
June worth noting for full season numbers, but the one
most recent start was pretty darn good. Brian Bellow, on
the other hand, had five starts in September, including one
against the Yankees.
Speaker 6 (17:11):
He gave up three or more runs in all five.
Speaker 5 (17:14):
Of those starts, did not have a good closing stretch
at all. That said, two previous starts against the Yankees
in twenty twenty five, both times seven innings, zero runs allowed,
Aaron Judge two of twenty one against Bellow, no dingers,
John Carlos Dan two singles in ten at bats against him.
Speaker 6 (17:33):
He's pitched at Yankee Stadium five times.
Speaker 5 (17:36):
In his career, three to one with a one point
four to four ERA in those five starts. So Bellow's
current form nowhere near Roddons, but his track record against
the Yankees and his track rgred on this field is
pretty freaking good.
Speaker 6 (17:49):
And then you hear his quote, you know, through a translator.
Speaker 5 (17:53):
Quote, I feel like as soon as you step on
the field, you feel the pressure from the fans, even
when you're in the bullpen and you go to the mound.
For me, nothing ages preparation wise, but I feel like
that extra pressure from the fans and from everybody it
gets me going. There are pressure pitchers, there are not
pressure pitchers. Bellow seems to be one of the guys
who can handle the pressure. Of course, he's gonna face
(18:15):
a different lineup tonight than what they saw last night.
Aaron Boone's probably gonna put the lefties in. You know,
Ben Rice is gonna start at first base. One would
think Jess Chisholm at second, Ryan McMahon at third, So
it'll be something different from last night. But last night
the Yankee said zero walks, thirteen strikeouts, one of seven
with runners in scoring position, had a prime opportunity to
tie or win the game. In the ninth, bases loaded
(18:36):
nobody out and they couldn't get a run across, demoralizing
for the home team. You know, the Socks bullpens fresh
all right, Only Chapman got used, and even Chapman they
can use again. He yes, he needed twenty four pitches
to get the four outs last night, but he went
back to back games in both series against the Yankees
down the Stretch one and August one in September, didn't
(18:58):
give up a run and got a save in both
second games of those back to backs. And what do
we see now in this wildcard round? You know, twelve
series over the last three years, so we have some
first round history. The team that wins game one is
ten and two in game two over the last three years.
I don't want the home favorite here. I don't believe
this price. The Red Sox nine and four in the
(19:18):
regular season against the Yankees five and two at Yankee Stadium.
Speaker 6 (19:22):
They won again last night. You know, ten and four,
six and two after last night, who's the pressure on
all the pressures on the Yankees here?
Speaker 5 (19:30):
Give me Boston at the plus price Red Sox or
pass for this bet.
Speaker 2 (19:36):
Titans even throws out Red Sox minus one and a
half plus.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
Two forty three, just throwing it, just throwing it out there.
So I think you.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
Got some you had some agreement on this game. Teddy,
Let's go to Boise State and Notre Dame. I gotta
tell you this, So I have two friends that live
really close to me, one Notre Dame fan, one big
Ohio State fan, Myle Heights Ohio State fans. He's very
good at knowing his team, and he he says that
(20:04):
he loves the Ohio State team and by the end
of the season, Notre Dame terrifies him. He thinks Notre
Dame is going to be like the team that he's
scared of the most if everybody's healthy. So we got
Notre Dame was a huge favorite here against Boise State,
big big total over under sixty two and a half.
Speaker 1 (20:22):
What's your take on Boise State Notre Dame.
Speaker 5 (20:25):
Yeah, so I count my openers as what I write
down on Sunday night. I usually write it down around
halftime of the Sunday night game opener. For this game,
I'm calling seventeen and a half for Notre Dame sixty
four and a half. So we've seen a little money
for the favorite, We've seen a lot of money, and
we've seen money for the under in this one, I'm
not sure I agree with either one of those. To
(20:45):
be perfectly honest, Poise had that bad opening loss at USF.
They're non competitive defeating that ball game. Since that time,
the offense fifty one, forty nine and forty seven points
scored over over over over team totals over full game over,
and they faced I mean, I'm not gonna call air
Force an app state anything like Notre Name. They based
at least two decent opponents during that band, so it's
(21:05):
not just complete bottom feeders.
Speaker 6 (21:07):
It's an Offens's clicking on all cylinders.
Speaker 5 (21:11):
We like the quarterback Maddix Manson, who was pretty good
last year. He has been pretty good in recent weeks.
And then we look at Boise step up games. You know,
how does Pois do when they step up in class
against the elite teams.
Speaker 6 (21:23):
You know, they faced Penn State in the playoffs last year.
They lost thirty one to fourteen.
Speaker 5 (21:27):
I don't think Notre Dame has the same defense like
Penn State had last year, but Boise's defense got gashed
in that contest. Don't only give up thirty one, but
they allowed two hundred rushing to hundred close to undred passing.
Speaker 6 (21:37):
They didn't win the line of scrimmage and the game
stayed under me.
Speaker 5 (21:40):
But that said, they were held to a pair of
field They held the field goals, they missed a pair.
Speaker 6 (21:44):
They had thirteen penalties. It was not a good game.
Speaker 5 (21:46):
For Boise against Penn State in the playoffs. That said,
they faced Oregon last year. They lost that game thirty
seven thirty four. They led at halftime, they led in
the fourth quarter. They allowed one hundred yard kick return touchdown.
That game flew over the total. Twenty twenty three at Washington,
they lost fifty six to nineteen. Couldn't get stops. That
game flew over the total. At Memphis they lost thirty
five to thirty two. That game flew over the total.
(22:08):
Versus UCLA and A Bowl game lost thirty five to
twenty two. That game flew over the total. Note the
theme here, over over over over with Poise and Madsen
no name. They had a pretty high profile lost Week
one as well to Miami in the opener.
Speaker 6 (22:24):
Since that time, they hung forty on A and M.
That's a good defense.
Speaker 5 (22:27):
Fifty six on Purdue, fifty six versus Arkansas, you know,
the beatdown so bad that the Razorbacks got their head
coach fired. You know, you know that's Pittman is not
going to send you Christmas cards to a Marcus Freeman
company for what they did last week on their home field.
Speaker 6 (22:45):
The frosh quarterback CJ. Car has been pretty darn good too.
Speaker 5 (22:49):
The defense has struggled, though last week was better, but
you know, We've seen some ugby performances already, and the
defensive line was area concerned coming into the season. This
defensive line has been pushed around. Remember Al Golden was
the DEFENSEI cornator linelast year. He got them the National
Championship game. Chris ash been the defense corner of this year.
And if you want to talk about, you know, coordinator
drop offs, it's been pretty significant, at least in this
(23:10):
better's opinion. So I don't view Notre Dames defense anywhere
near what it was a year ago. I expect the
Irish to get their fair share, all right, team total
forty and a half forty one and a half four
Notre Dame. That tells you all you need to know.
The question here is how many points does Bois get
against this defense? And I think the Boise side correlates
(23:32):
with the over in this ball game.
Speaker 6 (23:34):
I think boys will get enough. I like over between the.
Speaker 5 (23:38):
Fighting Irish and the Broncos. Three point thirty Eastern, twelve
thirty Pacific on Saturday.
Speaker 2 (23:45):
Great breakdown from Teddy covers we got all around the
world coming up. Where I'm going to give out Teddy,
I'm going to give out a plus one forty five
on the single biggest letdown spot I think.
Speaker 1 (23:54):
I've ever seen in all of sports.
Speaker 2 (23:57):
I cannot think of a bigger letdown spot in all
of sports. And I'm getting plus one forty five on
a play, So stay tuned for that.
Speaker 1 (24:06):
Let's do. Let's let's do.
Speaker 2 (24:08):
This line makes no sense. Uh you guys know me.
I bet props. Uh so whenever, whenever, whenever your boy
starts talking spreads in NFL, look out. But I gotta
I gotta do this one, Teddy, So tell me what
you think. This line makes no sense. Philadelphia minus three
(24:28):
and a half versus the Denver Broncos. The pass defenses
on paper are similar, Broncos a bit better rush defense.
And I have an Eagles team that is not really
winning by margin. Four point win against Dallas, How good
does that look? Three point win against banged up Kansas
City whose leading wide receiver was Taekwon Thornton. In that game,
a guy who knew England cut in the offseason, they get,
(24:51):
as you well know. Don't mean to bring up demons,
but the luckiest cover ever against the Rams when they
could have lost outright, but they definitely should have covered.
And then no one score win against Tampa, who didn't
have Mike Evans, Chris Chris Godwin Baker had the bicep injuries.
I get the Broncos, who only they have two losses,
but a one point loss at Colts Colts probably should
(25:12):
be four and oh not for the wide receiver dropping
a ball in the end zone. Three point loss at Chargers.
They were winning that game with three minutes to go.
The Eagles cannot pass the ball. They have the worst
passing offense. Hertz was oh for eight in the second
half last week. I got Philly, who's the third worst
yards per play on offense Denver's tenth, Denver eighth, and
yards per play on defense Phillies eighteenth.
Speaker 1 (25:35):
This line makes no sense. This should be much.
Speaker 2 (25:37):
Closer to a pick him. Philly's at home, so maybe
I make him a minus one. But over that key
number of three, this line makes no sense.
Speaker 5 (25:45):
So from a powering standpoint, before Monday Night football, the
Eagles minus five for this game and the Marcus red
five and a half.
Speaker 6 (25:53):
So what we've seen.
Speaker 5 (25:55):
Is a significant reaction in favor of Denver after they
blew out a bad Bengals team on Monday Night.
Speaker 6 (26:04):
All Right, when we talk about Philadelphia.
Speaker 5 (26:08):
All right, when I talk about box scores, Eagles could
care less about box scores. Yes, they're what one of
the I forget the only team or the second team
in NFL history to win their first four games while
getting out yarded in all four of those games. Philly
doesn't care about box scores. Philly is a team that
knows how to win. Denver not so much in that regard.
(26:28):
There are two victories this season at home against Tennessee
at home against Cincinnati.
Speaker 6 (26:34):
That's not a who's who are good teams? All right?
Speaker 5 (26:37):
Say what you want about the Eagles offense, and don't
tell me Philly can't pass. I watched him pass all
over the field when they rally from behind when they
needed to pass. They can pass just fine. You know
we've seen Hurts light up the scoreboard in that regard
in the game against Tampa. Sure, the covers have been lucky,
they had a couple of lover lucky covers. But the
(26:59):
bottom lie is this line could easily be higher. The
markets have already significantly adjusted for Denver's success against bottom feeders.
And do you trust Bonix traveling east again for early
Star game, again against a pretty good Philly defense. I'm
not so sure I do. There you go, This line
makes perfect sense, and in fact, it might even be sure.
Speaker 3 (27:22):
Damn it, boo.
Speaker 1 (27:24):
This is why I don't do NFL spreads.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
I'll stick to my props. We had a question from
Adam earlier. I wanted to get your thoughts on Adam.
Gonna know it's not a long teaser. Any consideration to
teasing the Browns at plus four and a half to
ten and a half Since the over unders only thirty
six and a half, the line could head lower of
Vikings injuries confirmed. Teddy, what do you think about teasing
(27:49):
the Browns up to ten and a half.
Speaker 6 (27:51):
So you got a rookie quarterback and to be making
his first career start against the Brian Flores defense, you
can tease it. I ain't going there. I mean you can't.
You can't.
Speaker 5 (28:02):
It doesn't fall into wrong and it's a kind of
game where things go wrong for Cleveland. It could spiral,
and those aren't the games I want teasers.
Speaker 6 (28:11):
I mean for me.
Speaker 5 (28:12):
You know, everyone makes their own betting decisions, certainly from
a teaser standpoint. There are some good opportunities out there,
and I'm not trying to talk you out of it,
but there's not a chance in hell.
Speaker 6 (28:21):
I make that, not me.
Speaker 1 (28:23):
Yeah, rookie starting rookie quarterback.
Speaker 2 (28:26):
Nothing that defense, yeah yeah, true, true, And it's the Browns.
You're putting your hard earned money on the Browns and
starting working quarterbacks up, Teddy, thank you so much for
jumping into doing this last minute.
Speaker 1 (28:39):
Tell everyone what you have up. But wait you talk.
Speaker 5 (28:41):
Sure we'll do it again on Friday. And look, the
playoff baseball has been really good. Last year, we had
a ten game winning streak in the postseason. Right now,
I'm riding. I won last night with the easy right side.
I'm eleven and three betting playoff baseball, so a pretty
good run. Football has been a pretty good run. Well,
rolse got some amazing numbers. I might let me talking
for eighteen and two. Those are fantastic nine ones. That's unbelievable.
(29:05):
I'm six and two in college and five and two
in the NFL, and over the last two weeks that right,
I get it exactly, so I don't screw up five
or two NFL, six and two college, So it's pretty good.
Speaker 6 (29:18):
The playoffs have been pretty good.
Speaker 5 (29:19):
NBA's coming up, that's been pretty good check at the
homepage w dot buzz backslash TC.
Speaker 6 (29:24):
Let's partner up, see what we can make some money together.
Speaker 1 (29:27):
Teddy, you want? You want to stick around here?
Speaker 2 (29:29):
I'll do my plus one forty five, I'll do I'll
do my biggest letdown spot in.
Speaker 1 (29:33):
The history of sports.
Speaker 6 (29:33):
You ready, I'm ready?
Speaker 1 (29:35):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (29:36):
European Golf Tournament Cameron Smith is plus one forty five
against Matthew Fitzpatrick. Is there a bigger letdown spot than
the European Ryder Cup team who have been partying all
week trying to come back.
Speaker 1 (29:49):
This guy's going to try.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
And play a tournament this week after winning the Ryder Cup.
They spent two weeks over in the US getting their
body clocks on a American time. They win on Sunday,
social media videos galore of them partying all night Sunday
and Monday, and this guy's gonna try and play four
rounds of golf and I'm getting a completely wrested Cameron
(30:14):
Smith in wind. I cannot think of a bigger letdown
spot than a golfer just coming off of his lifelong
dream of winning the Ryder Cup and then trying to
play a couple days after a night of partying and
travel and I get plus one on this.
Speaker 6 (30:29):
Love it conceptually? Is Cam Smith any good?
Speaker 4 (30:32):
Though?
Speaker 6 (30:33):
That's the only question.
Speaker 2 (30:36):
He struggled at the Majors. He's coming over from the
live tour. I think he wants to put on a show.
There's multiple live guys playing this week, but I will
fade every guy on that Ryder Cup team. They Teddy,
they might still be drunk. There's a chance they are
drunk right now. So that's my biggest letdown in all
the sports. So all right, thank you very much, Teddy Covers.
(30:57):
Can't wait to see again on Friday. Teddy will be
joining us for football Friday. I got a couple other
spots here, Chris, let's pull up the all around the
world here, let's do a couple of MLB plays along
with this. Cameron Smith plus one forty five Padres and Cubs.
Right up for the Padres. The Cubs are starting with Kittridge.
Then a Manga looks like he will continue the game.
(31:19):
The Cubs did use some bullpen arms yesterday, including Kittridge,
but Manga like give up twenty earned runs and twenty
seven point two innings in September. That's his worst month. Meanwhile,
you got ceascoring for the Padres. September was arguably his
best month. So we got two pitchers going in the
opposite directions. You're getting a good price on the Padres
(31:39):
in Tokyo. Brandon did a good job of bringing this
one up. Yesterday, Reds and the Dodgers. Take a look
at this Reds over two and a half on the
team total. It's only minus one thirty. Yammamato is shaky
at home. The Dodgers' bullpen is really bad. Dodgers won yesterday,
but the Reds put up five runs, so this could
be just a rent a Rens and repeat for the
(32:00):
Reds over the team total in that series against the Dodgers.
So uh, Cody says, golf, you golf better drunk?
Speaker 1 (32:09):
Yes, John Daily.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
He John Daily won the Major here in Indianapolis, like
close to where I lived, And my buddy knows the
bartender that served John Daily the night before his winning round.
John Daly has been opened like he was blacked out
in his winning rate. He doesn't even remember it. So yes,
John Daly is the He's the exception, not the rule,
not the rule. So all right, I have one play
(32:32):
up guys to tell you about. This starts in a
couple hours. Jahan, who does a great job with our
cricket plays, he's found a play this week that works
incredibly well. We cashed it already today and we're going
right back to it. This is a there's a line
that the books have completely overlooked. It's a cross sport
parlay that starts in two hours.
Speaker 1 (32:49):
It's up for sale. It's a three percent best bet.
Speaker 2 (32:51):
Like I said, we've already hit this play this week,
so go grab that. It's the only play we have
up coming off with a really nice win on five
dollars Tuesday on Contender Series and as always the Weekend Warrior.
You know, we put up this special just like on
a whim in the first weekend of NFL, and it's
turned out to be one of the most popular specials,
So I think we're probably gonna be doing this for
(33:12):
the foreseeable future. Pick your handicapper and you get every
football play Saturday and Sunday. You're also getting any five
percent plays. It's only forty nine dollars and we're gonna
throw in Monday.
Speaker 1 (33:23):
Night football for free. So Weekend Warrior.
Speaker 2 (33:26):
Forty nine dollars all plays college NFL pick your favorite
handicapper again.
Speaker 1 (33:32):
This is one of those We.
Speaker 2 (33:33):
Run these promos and sometimes they do okay, and then
sometimes their home runs like this one. So appreciate everyone,
and it's a very very smart way to take advantage
of your favorite handicapper at a discounted price.
Speaker 1 (33:44):
So all right, that's gonna do it for us.
Speaker 2 (33:46):
We're gonna be back tomorrow or Yannie's gonna join us
and we get to start talking UFC. We got a big,
big UFC card tomorrow, and of course we're gonna get
ready for college football, MLB playoffs and NFL. Thank you
so much for joining us. Do not forget to hit
that like button, Do not forget to leave a comment
below tell us what your best bet is for today,
and don't forget to subscribe to the wager Talk YouTube
(34:06):
channel and hit that bell. You get notified when all
of our videos come out, when all of our shows
go live, tons of individual breakdown videos. So if you're
thinking about betting on a college game NFL, check out
our channel. We probably have a breakdown on it. Thanks
very much for joining us. Good luck on all your
bets today.
Speaker 1 (34:22):
Take care
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