WagerTalk Today | Free Sports Picks | Monday Night Football Picks & Props | NLCS & ALCS | 10/13

On Monday's edition of WagerTalk Today, Steve Merril previews tonight's NFL Week 6 finale in the Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders Monday Night Football matchup and takes a look at both MLB Playoff matches with Game 1 of NLCS & Game 2 between the Mariners vs Blue Jays in the ALCS. Bill Krackomberger joins the show to talk the latest in the sports betting industry and give his favorite prop for Bills vs Falcons. Andy Lang reacts to Sunday's NFL action, provides props and shares free picks and Gianni The Greek gives daily betting advice – don't miss out!

Intro 00:00
Gianni the Greek 1:00
Steam Report 3:00
QB Injuries 14:51
Bill Krackomberger 22:00
Andy's NFL Overreactions 37:20
Steve Merril 40:50
Bears vs Commanders 44:30
MLB Double-Header: Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays & Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers 47:21
Andy Lang All Around the World Free Picks 57:40

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Wage you Talk today, the gold standard of
sports betting shows where we talked to talk and me
indeed walk the walk. It's Monday, big lineup. Yanni the
Greek kicks things off with the Steam Report. Crack Man's
gonna drop by. We're gonna do Monday Night football prop
for Bills and the Falcons, along with some MLB insights
with Steve Merrill.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
He's gonna break down Mariners, Blue Jays.

Speaker 1 (00:20):
We're all just gonna take a look at this NLCS
game one as along with a Bears and Commanders Monday
Night football preview. We got double the baseball, we got
double the football. Plenty of sharp info to start your
week off right. And Dan, I just gotta say, I
use a football school, baby, I use a football school
for the first time in my life.

Speaker 2 (00:41):
How about that?

Speaker 1 (00:42):
All right, let's bring in Yanni the Greek, and you
guys please hit the like button while we're getting started.

Speaker 2 (00:47):
Yanni, you were just celebrating earlier.

Speaker 1 (00:50):
Well, you got a nice future that that that's on
the right track.

Speaker 3 (00:54):
Have four on Seattle to win the AL at plus
ten to one, so there's forty units pending. And then
I have four percent on them at twenty five to
one to win the World Series. So alably one hundred
and forty units sitting there on turn and I said,
we got to make money off this bet.

Speaker 4 (01:15):
So the decision was either you.

Speaker 3 (01:17):
Take Toronto to you know, hedge Toronto to this series
at minus one forty. I said, you know what, let's
take it game by game and see what happens. So instead,
yesterday I just bet Toronto game one for five unit's.
Seattle now won game one. So now Seattle's minus two
hundred in the adjustment series price, and I think that's

(01:38):
too high, to be honest with you, Historically I think
it's it's it should be about minus one sixty right now,
it's a little bit too high at minus two hundred.
I'm almost tempted to hedge a little with Toronto because
when the road team wins game one, historically they win
the series about six out of ten times, so it's
about a sixty percent, and it's priced now at sixty

(02:00):
seven break even.

Speaker 4 (02:02):
Each series.

Speaker 3 (02:03):
Each matchup is different, but I just think it's too high.
Like Toronto's got the pitch in, they got the bats
to where they shouldn't be this big of an underdog
in this spot. I don't think for the series. I'm
hoping Seattle gets it done again tonight. I haven't really
broke that game down yet. I've been looking mostly at football,

(02:23):
but yeah, I need them to get it done hopefully.

Speaker 1 (02:27):
We had a couple of Monday night football games. Anything
of note that you're seeing.

Speaker 3 (02:31):
Yeah, I mean to get the latest going on Washington money.
No surprise, Washington was tied in from yesterday to a
handful of money line parlays, a handful of teasers where
they tease them down to where they just have to
win the game. And we're also seeing straight bets coming

(02:53):
in on the Washington side. So the question is when
are they going to six with it? Because we're seeing
five and a halfs. It hasn't gotten there. I look
into my Sharper shops too and it still hasn't gotten there.
So it'll be interesting to see if they get the
six with Washington. The overs being bet in both games

(03:15):
by the recreational betters. We haven't seen the wise guys
get involved. That's why you haven't seen a big move
on the line like the total open that the look
that had got bet over over at forty eight right away,
which is a Monday night game that happens almost always
because the bias to the betters is always towards the
over on those primetime games.

Speaker 4 (03:35):
So that's not a big move.

Speaker 3 (03:36):
It's what happens after that, and we haven't seen much
movement at all. It's like half point increments to get
the forty nine and a half or fifty, and the
same thing with the Chicago Washington total. We're getting over money,
but they've gone the fifty back to forty nine and
a half, fifty back to forty nine and a half.

Speaker 4 (03:55):
That tells you it's not sharp money related.

Speaker 3 (03:57):
It's not a group that came took a position hit
them with a limit bet on the over, because you'd
be seeing, you know, fifty and a half instantly. Fifty
one's by now, So in neither of the games would
I consider the over move that we're seeing real sharp.
As far as the science, we have seen sharp money.

(04:18):
On Atlanta. The look ahead was what three and a half.
They put it out at four four and it went
to four and a half. That's when you started seeing
somebody Atlanta money. Now it's down to three and a half.
I think that has a lot to do with number
one home dog number two. They haven't had a Monday
night game in Atlanta in a really, really long time,

(04:39):
so I mean this is it's hard to quantify that,
but it should be a good home field advantage. And
of course you have Buffalo coming off an ugly loss
to New England, so a little recency bias there that that,
because you would think it would be one sided Buffalo
money and that's just not the case, at least not

(04:59):
yet heavier I think the Washington side and the line
reflects that, where with the Buffalo Atlanta you got the
sharp money that came in on Atlanta dropped the line,
but I think you're gonna get more than enough Buffalo
money the other way from recreational betters to get good
balance there. So nothing really like jumping out as far

(05:21):
as wise guys steaming anything except again the Atlanta at
four and a half, and then the public's just betting
both games over and obviously a little heavier on the
favorite with the Commanders.

Speaker 1 (05:35):
Sean was asking about any sharp action in hockey today
and Adam was wondering some thoughts on James Franklin's firing
on the Penn State. Iowa is this situation where players
look to flee, maybe the line keeps moving up. You know,
the lines are kind of based on narratives, not necessarily
like what actually happens. Sometimes players rally, sometimes.

Speaker 2 (06:00):
They give up. Your guess is as good as mine
on that one.

Speaker 1 (06:03):
If I think, if you're think, if you're trying to
guess what the narrative is, you're kind of playing with fire.

Speaker 2 (06:07):
It's kind of a coin flip there.

Speaker 1 (06:09):
I wouldn't guess what the player's narratives are, ONTI.

Speaker 4 (06:13):
You'd rather wait and see confirmation.

Speaker 2 (06:16):
Yeah, like the draft quarterback.

Speaker 4 (06:19):
Yeah, we talked about it inbe with the draft.

Speaker 3 (06:23):
Why guess in lay minus two hundred when tomorrow I
could lay four hundred and have confirmation. Yeah, I have
to lay a bigger price, but now I'm pretty sure
that this player's.

Speaker 4 (06:33):
Going to that team. You know, I get it.

Speaker 3 (06:36):
Sometimes you get a much better price getting out ahead
of the market, But when you there's times that you
could get confirmation. I much rather wait to answer his
question on NHL real quickly. Colorado got steamed immediately at opener.
Obviously you could tell that from the betting line. Tampa
Bay was another one that I saw in multiple accounts.

(06:57):
Tampa Bay kept getting bet column Columbus over New Jersey.

Speaker 4 (07:03):
As a home dog.

Speaker 3 (07:04):
I saw on accounts who else, sorry, just wanted Monday,
Monday account Monday and where was oh the under under
in Saint Louis Vancouver but at six and now it's
five and a half. They seemed that under Vancouver Saint Louis.
So that that's some of the hockey that got hit immediately.

Speaker 1 (07:26):
Just uh, there's a lot of day games and hockey guys.
It's Canadian Thanksgiving, so these games, these games are like
literally starting in a half hour an hour, so make
sure don't wait until this evening and be like, oh
I got to bet those hockey games and the game
has been over for a few hours, so uh, be
careful on those. So yeah, someone even in the chat,
you see, Panda says he likes the blue jacket. So

(07:48):
there's your confirmation, Yanni, Panda in the chat, there's your
there's your uh and Rob says the same thing about that,
so uh, let's see. Yeah, what's your thoughts when we
have a co fired from a you know, Penn State,
not only that they're quarterbacks out for the year, is it.

Speaker 2 (08:05):
Just unknowns you just wait and see.

Speaker 4 (08:07):
Why listen, that's a team right now.

Speaker 3 (08:10):
Here's here's the problem with a situation like that. Right now,
Penn State is getting such negative feedback from you know,
the betting market, that you're almost forced to look to
back that team. To be honest with you, it's kind
of like the bet the crypto market, the stock market.

Speaker 4 (08:33):
You got to run into a burning building if you
want to make money.

Speaker 3 (08:36):
It's the scariest times. But when things are crashing is
when you're going to get value. When when you're seeing
on CNBC they're gonna you know, it's going to zero,
Bitcoin's going to zero. That there there, it's imploding. Like
when you start seeing that stuff, you have to have
the courage to go.

Speaker 4 (08:53):
In and it's very hard to do.

Speaker 3 (08:56):
But this is when you're usually going to get a
lot of value on a team like that. Again, you
can wait for confirmation by seeing how they play on
the field, but then you know everyone else saw it too,
you know, how do you take advantage of it? So personally,
I think again, for myself, I look to go contrarian

(09:17):
in most markets, so I'm not afraid to back a
team like that, especially again, if the narrative is so ugly,
so bad, you're usually.

Speaker 4 (09:25):
Gonna get some value.

Speaker 3 (09:27):
And then you just got to hope that the team
actually shows up, which, like you said, is the part
you're guessing.

Speaker 4 (09:32):
You can't.

Speaker 3 (09:33):
You don't know how is that locker room gonna respond
to the situation.

Speaker 1 (09:39):
Also, you have the other team has absolutely no film
to work. What do you prepare for?

Speaker 5 (09:44):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (09:44):
Yeah, great point?

Speaker 2 (09:45):
What possible film? Do you know what they're going to
bring out? On offense?

Speaker 1 (09:49):
It's going to take you a full half to try
and figure out what they're running if they're competent, Are
we running a million times?

Speaker 2 (09:55):
Are we passing?

Speaker 5 (09:56):
Do we?

Speaker 2 (09:56):
Are we running a dierent like?

Speaker 1 (09:57):
And then by the time you adjust a half time
the other teams as I see too many of these
messy situations. Sometimes I love when backup quarterbacks come in
just because.

Speaker 4 (10:06):
The absolutely player theory.

Speaker 3 (10:08):
Marco Marco's handicapped. You know, it's funny. I just looked
real quick at the rankings. I see Notre Dame as
thirteenth in the AP fifteenth in the coach's pull. Do
you know there's maybe two teams in all of college
football that would be favored over Notre Dame on a
neutral field, number one would be Ohio State, Number two

(10:31):
would be Alabama, everyone else, Oregon, Georgia.

Speaker 4 (10:37):
Indiana, name them.

Speaker 3 (10:39):
Notre Dame would be favored over on a neutral field.
At least that's what real power ratings reflect. Again, the
sportsbook's job is to manage risk and the narrative out there.
A foreign two Notre Dame team can't be as good
as the six and O team. With that said, power
ratings are everything. I talked about it every single week
about the overvalued college football teams, and I'm still seeing it.

(11:02):
Miami number two, You have no business being number two.
Miami's not even a top ten power rated team.

Speaker 5 (11:08):
There.

Speaker 3 (11:09):
I said it, Miami's not even a top ten power
rated team. Miami's lucky to be in the top twenty
power rating wise, and yet they're number two because they're
sitting at five and oh like. I would make Indiana
favor over Miami. I would make Texas favored over Miami.
I would make Oregon, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Penn State, Old

(11:31):
Penn State, Michigan, all those teams I would make favored
over Miami, and yet their number two. That's how you
make money in college football. That's why I've been able
to crush the college football market this year.

Speaker 4 (11:44):
Texas A and M.

Speaker 3 (11:45):
Texas A and M at number four, Texas A and
M is barely in my top.

Speaker 4 (11:51):
Fifteen, barely in my top fifteen.

Speaker 3 (11:54):
I could rat off ten teams that would be favored
over Texas A and M on a neutral field, that
will all play itself out as this season progresses. That's
the beauty of, you know, having games ahead of us.
It's not a long enough season. It's not baseball where
you're guaranteed the cream will rise to the top and

(12:16):
the numbers will play out like they should. But there's
enough of a season that, like those Phonies, the Miami's,
the teams like that, they will get exposed. Rest is
short and still best team coming into the season with
Ohio State. Best team still is Ohio State, and right
behind them is Notre Dame and Alabama. But Ohio State's

(12:40):
still at least a field goal better than the next
best team in college football.

Speaker 1 (12:45):
The Ohio State opponent team total under has been an
absolute gem, and it's getting it's getting ready to flip
the other way. The Illinois should have gone over that
team total's there's gonna be a team that starts going
over against Ohio States if you.

Speaker 2 (13:00):
All have been riding those streaks like me.

Speaker 3 (13:02):
Then someone asked about Texas Tech their number seven. I think, yes, seven.
They just made my top twenty this week. I just
put them into my top twenty. So they're not a
top ten team, but they are in the top twenty.

Speaker 4 (13:17):
I give them that.

Speaker 3 (13:17):
With Texas Tech, we still have a lot to see.
But again, strength of schedule is everything. Texas showed that
against Oklahoma. I got so much pushback on Oklahoma about
how their number two defense, number one, this number one.
Its strength of schedule is everything, and luckily we saw
that play out.

Speaker 1 (13:37):
Uh do you have your running shoes on so you
can do your victory lap on Texas?

Speaker 5 (13:42):
Oh?

Speaker 3 (13:42):
Yeah, absolutely, yeah, no idea. That game was more important
to me than anything else. I had a five percent
yesterday on the New York Jets, and I cared more
about that day before Open and Johnny were texting each other.

Speaker 4 (13:56):
I was like, hook them horns, bro, hook them horns.
This is so big right now. He's like due fifty thousand.

Speaker 3 (14:01):
He was like, you know, thirty thousand views, all these
comments you better hope they win. He was messing with me,
you know, and uh yeah, thank god that came through.

Speaker 2 (14:10):
Listen.

Speaker 1 (14:10):
Sometimes it's great to be on an island. Sometimes it's
it's oh yeah.

Speaker 3 (14:15):
Sometimes I was on the Baltimore Island yesterday that I'm
still there waiting for a ship to come by and
pick me off.

Speaker 4 (14:23):
I'm carving in the sands as.

Speaker 1 (14:29):
I was all over the I was all over the rams.

Speaker 4 (14:31):
Actually that's better. From hero to zero in less than
twenty four hours, bro, so as good as your last bed.

Speaker 2 (14:40):
Absolutely, you know what.

Speaker 1 (14:41):
I want to finish up our segment by talking about that,
because last week we talked about these injured quarterbacks and
I said, I was like, I don't know if these
books are adjusting enough, because I think the Cooper Rush,
you know things, is terrible. But I also said that
Jacoby Brissett thing was was wasn't going to work and
shirt uough they cover, they didn't they covered, but through
from three hundred yards looked pretty good. And Cooper Rush

(15:04):
was downright atrocious.

Speaker 2 (15:05):
He was awful.

Speaker 1 (15:06):
He got benched, and then Huntley came in and was
equally as bad.

Speaker 2 (15:09):
I don't know, do we.

Speaker 1 (15:10):
Get any do we get anything solidified about these backup quarterbacks.

Speaker 4 (15:15):
Listen, that's what I fell for.

Speaker 3 (15:17):
I fell for that where that I thought Cooper Rush
would like he could only go up from here, you know.

Speaker 4 (15:24):
What I mean.

Speaker 3 (15:24):
He had a fifty eight QBR, he threw three interceptions
like you shouldn't come in and with a worse performance
than that, And that was my reasoning, coupled with any
pride at all, a good home field advantage getting eight
points like what would they be in LA fourteen, you
know what I mean?

Speaker 4 (15:44):
And I was proven wrong because of that.

Speaker 3 (15:48):
Like I think the sample size matters, and I think
that's where my mistake was that I looked at seasons
of Cooper Rush having a much higher QBR, but that
samples when I look through it again, was small, Like
he had twenty passes one season, you know what I mean,
fourteen passes another season, And I think that you know,

(16:09):
you got to always go back and see where were
you off? What was your mistake, you know what I mean?
Other than just did you get any closing line value?
And I think that was my read that I was expecting,
like this kid to progress towards a mean, but his
mean may actually be that bad and he was actually
outperforming it prior.

Speaker 4 (16:28):
I think that's the key.

Speaker 3 (16:30):
But that's why, after passing success rate, the next highest
like stat that I know, as far as correlation, the
highest correlation is value over replacement player. So if you're
good at quantifying what that replacement player is worth, you
could do a lot of damage in the market.

Speaker 4 (16:50):
And that's very difficult to do.

Speaker 3 (16:52):
I think you got to do it on a case
by case basis obviously, And yeah, with the backup quarterbacks,
the downgrade is usually an overreaction, but we saw yesterday
in Cooper Rush that that wasn't the case, Like that
was understated, not overstated, and just how bag it.

Speaker 1 (17:12):
Was also play against the banged up Ravens defense, and
also they have the bye week and it ended up
playing out just like I thought.

Speaker 2 (17:18):
Hardball came out after the game was like, yes, that was.

Speaker 4 (17:22):
A great point, and that worried me.

Speaker 3 (17:24):
I'd already placed my bet, but that worried me because
it made sense, like why are they going to give
effort before the bye week.

Speaker 4 (17:31):
They've already quit. They they're looking at a week off,
They're just going to go through the motions.

Speaker 3 (17:36):
And that's what happened. It should I should have bet
them first half. To be honest with you, that was
another mistake I made. Well, if you're betting bad teams,
remember this in the NFL. If you're afraid to bet
a bad team but you like them, bet them in
the first half. The cream will rise to the top.
But sometimes it takes a little while to systematically break
them down. And a lot of times you'll see them

(17:57):
be competitive in the first half, they have something to
played for, there's a little fire under them. But then
the better team dominates. And we kind of saw that,
and that was again, that was a mistake that I
have to put it in and post it and start to
remind myself NFL bad teams, look at first halfs because
a lot of times you'll get that cover where you
won't for the full game.

Speaker 2 (18:18):
Uh.

Speaker 1 (18:19):
This, this tells it all, Yanni, and this, this might
be a bet.

Speaker 2 (18:24):
Baltimore Ravens.

Speaker 1 (18:25):
There, they have one, they have one win, and I
talked about how easy their schedule gets. FanDuel has their
over win total at eight and a half. So the
books are saying, are they gonna win eight games coming
out of the by that's and that's that's exactly what
I thought.

Speaker 2 (18:41):
Was gonna happen.

Speaker 1 (18:41):
They're gonna come out and they're gonna rip off seven
eight wins.

Speaker 2 (18:44):
They're gonna be in contention in this division.

Speaker 1 (18:46):
This division is totally gettable, so that the books are
telling you what what what to expect from them.

Speaker 2 (18:52):
So I'm I'm gonna look really really hard about.

Speaker 1 (18:55):
That one, because this is gonna be a healthy Ravens
team coming out by real really interesting point, really interesting.

Speaker 2 (19:00):
All right, Audie, it's a big Monday. What do you
have up for clients.

Speaker 3 (19:04):
It's not up yet, It's going up in the next
thirty minutes. I'm doing it because it's warranted. I have
a really, really, really strong lean on Monday Night football
and I just got a confirmation on it.

Speaker 4 (19:15):
I'm gonna make it five percent move.

Speaker 3 (19:18):
I'm firing tonight, coming off a suite of Sunday night
football with Kansas City and under those primetime games been
crushing them.

Speaker 4 (19:26):
It warrants it big bet coming go to wagertalk dot com.

Speaker 3 (19:29):
That package will be up within the next thirty minutes
with a five percent on Monday Night Football. Look out
for baseball as well, and of course next weekends. Packages
will be up as soon as I start firing and
confirm some moves. First losing week in college football, we
had one week zero, one, two, three, four, five six.
We lost in week seven, gave back a couple units,

(19:50):
didn't get crushed. Still up nine d eight units for
the year. So look for a big bounce back week
in college football as well. That's the luck. I'll be
in Vancouver for UFC Vancouver. We'll talk about that nice
later on in the week as well. So yeah, best
of luck, Tall do some damage boys, Yanni.

Speaker 5 (20:08):
You have you have.

Speaker 1 (20:08):
You have one job to do though. You have one
more week of Contender Series to get me some swag.

Speaker 3 (20:14):
I have a bag for you, I swear, I have
a bag for you. I have a bag, A couple,
just a couple of shirts.

Speaker 2 (20:22):
It's all I need.

Speaker 4 (20:23):
Brother Water, I got you the Dane of white Water.

Speaker 2 (20:26):
It's great. This is great.

Speaker 1 (20:27):
Yeah, we got six fights tomorrow and Contender Series. Enjoy
your last last Contenter series of it. Have fun, man,
Tell everyone, I said, hi, I love the crew. We
love watching live every week.

Speaker 2 (20:38):
Everyone.

Speaker 1 (20:38):
Yeah yeah YouTube brother, Uh yeah, last week of Contenter
Series is tomorrow. My five dollars play is going to
be on Contender Series. We're looking to wrap up a
nice season. We've hit our last few contender series plays,
so h stay tuned for tomorrow. All right, let's bring
in Bill and we got to talk about the weekend.

Speaker 2 (20:56):
We gotta talk about any MLB insight.

Speaker 1 (20:58):
Bill's Falcons. Oh, happy Monday, how are you hey?

Speaker 5 (21:02):
What's going on? That's what I was just checking. I
was just checking the Falcons line. Looks like the only
place that has it right now is minus one ten.
Anyway is bet MGM. So I gave that out earlier
in the week and yeah, minus plus four minus fifteen
a couple of sites, but bet MGM plus four minus
one ten. You know, you know, I'll notice some of

(21:24):
the slow moving books. This is something for people that
are in Las Vegas here. I'll even go nationwide too,
but let me start with Vegas and the amazing how
these subjects are just so spontaneous. You said Falcons had
just spawned it, so it's good to have the slower
moving books. Perfect example is this game. So I look
at all the different sports books. I have my screen

(21:46):
up and it's it's three and a half. Three and
a half at almost every single book, A couple plus
four minus fifteen minus twenty. But yet in if you
have MGM, if you have like the slower season, that's yeah,
here's what you need if you come to town. And
if you're serious better and I say serious better, I

(22:07):
just mean one hundred dollars better. And because that's a
serious better to me, you have to have bet MGM.
You have to have Caesars. You have to have the win.
That's right, the win, the win and stations. And I'm
just saying, like, you know, if you come to town,
like five grand, you're gonna be betting put a thousand

(22:28):
in each app. You know, you need those extra half
a point. And here's a perfect example tonight. I know
it's not such a key number, there really is. The
key numbers in the NFL have really diminished compared to
a decade ago where the three and the seven were
so important. You know now with the analytics, the two

(22:49):
point conversions they do and the extra ten extra yards
on the extra point, but still they do fall. Things
still fall twenty seven to twenty three, and you know,
and that's tonight, that should be the line. Actually, twenty
seven to twenty three. The lines totals fifty sides about four,
so you have to have lots of books in your

(23:11):
arsenal if you're serious, and then maybe blunt people that
watch the show, that watch wager Talk, they are usually
the more serious crowd to try to get more information.
So yeah, Andy, they oh, I was talking about nationwide,
So nationwide. Yes, I know I'm not allowed to play
there because I use my brain. But DraftKings. You should

(23:32):
have DraftKings. You should have fan Duel and the other couples,
a couple of faghesy books that are scared of death.
The ESPN bet rivers like, you need those books even
though I'm not allowed to play there. You guys that
are betting, you know, under five hundred dollars, you should
have those books in your arsenal if you're serious. Now,
if you're doing this just to have fun and socially,

(23:56):
and you know, I understand you want to have one book.
Or maybe it's just your local guy and no one's
gonna talk to you like this too. There's no one
that only me and maybe Jeohnny who has the pulse
of local guys. If you are playing with a local guy,
there's some advice. You should be getting a rebate, that's right,
you should be getting a rebate. It's real simple. There's

(24:17):
sports books everywhere now, you should just tell them, hey,
you're looking for ten or twenty percent, start at twenty.
This way, you know you can get down to that ten.
You're looking for twenty percent back of your losses. And
you know you want to rebate every week. So you
always want to have an edge in this. And having
that edge playing a lot of volume and looking like
you're more of a sucker, you know, playing your stuff

(24:40):
on Sundays, which is NFL Sundays. You want to make sure, though,
you negotiate the best deal for yourself and the best
deal locals. I just told you there's even if you're
more serious, better and I meet serious, like five hundred bucks,
then you'll want to get a host at Draftking Fandel,
even the ESPN, even these they all have casino hosts

(25:01):
that left the casino industry and are now working for
these big sites, and they'll incentivize you with different things.
To be honest with you, they could save all the
seats to the games. You could save the memorabilia, the hats,
the shirts, Please take them out. I want cash, Put
cash in my account, put free bets in my account.
That's what you asked for. And uh, that's a spontaneous

(25:23):
tip that I wasn't even planning to talk about there
and see what you did rams And that was the
end of Rico.

Speaker 1 (25:31):
So there's this rep here in Indiana and they reach
out to me, not very often but every once in
a while, and it is hilarious. So I hit DraftKings Big.
I told the story last week. I hit DraftKings Big
on Tuesday on Contender Series. And this weekend they were like, hey,
we put like ten boosts in your account for NFL,
and I was like, of course you went me bending NFL,

(25:57):
not taking taking a boost though at.

Speaker 5 (26:00):
Least you're still a lot to bet there, because you know,
it's amazing sometimes how stupid these sports books are. They literally, well,
I know someone that got thrown off a bet in tennis.
So he bet tennis, he won thirty five thousand. He
loses six figures a year in the NFL three seasons
in a row, and they cut him down to five
hundred dollars, three hundred and fifty dollars. Like this guy

(26:23):
bets five ten thousand a game. He lost one hundred
and eighty thousand one year, one hundred back to back seasons,
but they cut him because he got lucky in tennis.
It's just it's short, small ball thinking. And I think
if like the CEOs of the company, presidents or in
this case, the board of directors is the public company,
if they ever knew what went on with some of

(26:43):
these traders that are jealous and upset that someone won
on their shift, they would just go absolutely Haywire and bothers.

Speaker 1 (26:52):
So, yeah, I the bet rivers and the ESPN bets
and the fanatics like those are long gone for me.

Speaker 2 (26:58):
Those are those are yea?

Speaker 1 (27:00):
Those are those are zero dollar balances.

Speaker 5 (27:03):
Yeah, they just they go in and they do a
fingerprint and eye skin and once you get that, you're done. Yeah,
they're they're afraid. Oh he has a pulse, he bleeds red.
Get him out of here.

Speaker 1 (27:13):
Let's let's start our attention to a prop for Monday
night football. Here, let's take a look at the Bills
and Falcons. What's a prop you like in this one?

Speaker 5 (27:20):
Well, I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna throw you guys
a prop. Uh. You know, we were we gave we
gave one out at Wader Talk. But I'll give it
to anyone here that that watch is also for free.
Let's go to let's go to the Deebo Samuel. On
the other hand, let's go to Debo under fifty eight
and a half receiving yards and let me just tell
you widely available still. So Debo under fifty eight and

(27:42):
a half. I think he gets less work tonight. And
just checking the MGM line, you know, I MGM is
one of one of my books here. I mean, yeah,
they have they have so many good things that but
we only have like two sports books that offer so
many different ways to bet and so many different props
I have. I have MGM and Caesars. Of course, not
all have to play in Caesars. They threw me out

(28:03):
for using my brain. But so yeah, Deebo Samuel, Yeah,
it's still fifty eight and a half. So you got
you got a couple, uh, you got a couple of
things there to uh, a couple of different Now again,
isn't it good to get an extra half a yard
or whatever it may be? Like, you really want to
make sure that you have more outs. So I'm only

(28:25):
giving you one line, but I know that that's still available.
So yeah, Debo, you know, he had some injury there
that you know that he still might be reeling from
a little bit. But I think they're gonna go to
him less. So there's a there's a free prop for
you guys. What else now, Atlanta? I said that out
earlier in the week and you know the week and
when it was plus four. I really don't do a

(28:47):
lot of NFL sides. I do them for you guys.
I give you one of my one of my top
guys that is a winning and an NFL side guy.
They only give you, I think I only give out
two this week. One was Tampa and one here is
trying to go two and oh with them this week.
May have a couple more for your next week. We
like a couple of lines for next week. So yeah,

(29:11):
so that's that's really it. We have a couple off
of bye week. This game. This should be an interesting
you know, when you look at the public, thinking about
the public, they're only gonna know the what these teams
have done in the past. So when they when you hear,
I'll give you the list bills Kansas City. You know

(29:34):
super Bowl winners, you want to always go with the
Super Bowl contenders. Philadelphia Eagles those teams. By betting on
those teams on a primetime game compared to a regular
game that's a Sunday afternoon, you're gonna pay a tax
and a lot of markets in the way of an
extra half a point or juice because they already know
which way you're betting on games. So we may get

(29:58):
this for tonight on Atlanta again and again. Just to
give you an example, you should bet three times more
on the prop than you should on the side. So
I'll just tell you right now you should put three
times more money. It's all about bankroll management and percentage
of bankroll, so you should bet more money on your props.
In general, props are much easier to beat, as you

(30:20):
can tell this season when I'm when I'm doing and
what I've done my whole entire life compared to the
NFL sides. I do think we'll have a winning NFL
side season. But you know when when you're dealing with
a handicapper that's a fifty five fifty six percent lifetime
winner betting NFL or anything, and he's going right now

(30:41):
at fifty one and a half percent, now is probably
the time to jump on that because if he's going
to return to the mean. He's probably going to have
a year where he's gonna finish out fifty seven percent
and and bring that that number back up. So you know,
the great Alan Boston taught me that. You know, he said,

(31:02):
you know, when someone is a lifetime handicapper like he
is fifty eight percent and college basketball and he's hitting
fifty two percent, well, and now's the time to jump
on him. Probably. You know, one of the genius minds
of all time. Friend of mine, you know Alan, I
put him on my podcast once a year for March Madness,

(31:22):
and he's highly intellectual, Pengrad super genius. Sometimes can't come
off socially very well, but he trust me, it's because
he's eccentric, because he is that genius of a guy.
And you know, for people that again, I can go
off on tangus here, people that sometimes say something about
Alan's in that one of the most generous guys I

(31:44):
know loaned himself broke. That's right. He loaned himself broke,
gives money to charities, dog charities, helps everybody, and loaned
himself broke multiple times. And anyone that knows Alan will
know what I'm talking about there, Andy, I don't know
if you're gonna go off at the baseball a little bit,
but if you're I'm sure you were going. But I

(32:04):
asked a question. Yea question for you. Hey crack, we
do have baseball. Oh Andy, Okay, here, let me just
tell you. I love playoff baseball. I love watching playoff baseball.
I watched back to back games last week and I
usually never do something like that. I mean, it was
just so cool. I was over at the West Gate.

(32:25):
I was doing a show over there on my podcast,
and it just what happens that one of my co
hosts from my Fox show on the weekends, he was
over there, so I said, come on, I watch a game.
I wanted to watch the two games from the back
to back. Nothing better than playoff baseball when it means everything,
the heart and soul of the teams are left out
there on the field at the end. It's just so good,

(32:45):
Seattle that fifteen in game I watched that. I think
it was Friday night. That was that was just so good.
You know, we had the four best teams left too.
I'll just tell you. And unlike what a lot of
people think, I think it's kind of a shoot. I
don't think the Dodgers are a lot of the Dodgers.
That's easy there. Why even play? I come on, well,

(33:06):
first of all, I have a Seattle future, so yeah,
I need Seattle to win. And that was that's why
I'm saying that that fifteen game was unbelievable. But yeah,
so I love it though, it's for everything. I absolutely
love the baseball and I think it's a great time
of the year right now. The weather's changing now here
in Vegas the last two days. I told my wife yesterday,

(33:29):
I said, Wow, what a difference. You used to go
out in the morning and it was eighty five degrees.
Why not? I said, it was seventy sixty five this morning.
Forget it sixty degrees, but I you could feel it
in the air. Though its baseball playoff, NFL season. Just
a great time and even a good time to come
out to Vegas. You know, all my guys they're wearing
their h they'll bring out their hoodies, wear pair of shorts,

(33:51):
you know, a little bit whack of doos. You know.
That's what my East Coast guys though, because they used
to be in a freezing they don't care get down
to fifty degrees at night. But yeah, so good time
of the year to be in Vegas. Good time of
the year to be a foo.

Speaker 2 (34:04):
Who do you like? In baseball? Who do you like?
You got a team you're betting on?

Speaker 5 (34:09):
I mean, I'm not betting. I gotta go at Seattle.
I have. I have multiple futures on Seattle. You know,
I'm one of those rare guys that's in you know,
the media space, and you know a lot of these
a lot of these people that are in media and stuffy.
They just all talk a good game and none of
them even none of them even bet. So here you go,
there's one bet. There's one bet for you, Andy, you know,
if you can see that. I need the Mariners desperately,

(34:32):
so nice, you know, just a nice bet. I mean
I found that. How could I find that bet? Now?
I can't even I couldn't have to do that to
the public. It was twenty to one everywhere, and for
some reason, Circa had thirty to one, so on Seattle
to win. But I did put out of Seattle Future
earlier this season, so I need them and hopefully we

(34:53):
get there with that. But yeah, no, and it's been
a it's been a good season. It's a grind. I'm
up twenty some units in and this year, and and
you know overall wager talk in sports on football so
far this season. So yeah, twenty two minits. I mean
they had it down. I knew what it was, but
I see that on the homepage there. The football has

(35:14):
been good. College has been good. It's been a little
bit of a grind these last two weeks, but it's good.
Now we've got basketball is getting ready to start up.
On college basketball. Oh boy, I just love that. It's
a great, great sport to bet for me, especially a
little bit earlier when the season's a little softer. Lots
of different make sure you have, you know, lots of

(35:35):
different books because now these bookmakers have a little bit
harder time too. You don't understand. I've been saying this
for years too. I'll be talking about this in a
couple weeks, so I shouldn't even go into it now.
It's harder to run a sportsbook though, when you have
three hundred lines to put up compared to you know,
eighty line, sixty lines. Yeah, it's harder. You have different
people in departments. I'll explain that though on a future

(35:56):
show here when college basketball starts.

Speaker 1 (35:59):
All right, awesome stuff, Bill, What do you have up
for clients?

Speaker 5 (36:02):
Yeah, of course. Now tonight, same thing. We have a
top Monday and I play just fifteen bucks. We have
our season player. I always tell people they got to
get in for the instead of them, And then I
understand people like doing a one day pass. I get it.
So if you like that, you like a three day pass.
You know, anything can happen in one or three days.

(36:23):
Long term though, seven day past, thirty day pass, ninety day.
That's where I say, get me, lock me up until
the end of At the end of Super Bowl, you
want to get in on those props too, so you're
gonna be happy with that. So every week, great props.
We send a lot of things out, even towards the
day of the game, when things are available. We get

(36:44):
obtainable lines. I'm not one of those people that are
gonna tell you could bet this at Rivers, you can
bet this at DraftKings. No, I'm gonna give you an
obtainable line. I'm not gonna pad my record by doing that.
I don't do that. It's total bs. All right, I've said.

Speaker 1 (36:59):
Enough, all right, Bill crack Man. Every Monday, always bringing
the heat. Thanks Bill, having a great week. Can't wait
to do it again next next week. All right, we're
gonna bring in Steve Merrill here in a bit. But Steve,
I want you to watch this segment because we're doing
NFL overreactions and I want to get your thoughts on
some of these before we bring you on. All right,
not a big week of overreactions, but we do have

(37:22):
a couple dynamite ones. I mean the Jackson Dart cams Kataboo.
Have the Giants completely turned around after one win. This
is the ultimate overreaction. So Jackson Dart Camskataboo, the Giants
are Super Bowl contenders. Now, I got to give a
shout out to the chat. A couple of people said,
Jacobe Brissette is gonna be better than Kyler Murray.

Speaker 4 (37:45):
Three hundred yards.

Speaker 2 (37:46):
He looked pretty good.

Speaker 1 (37:47):
It's kind of a little bit of an overreaction. And
then we got Baker Mayfield for MVP. I don't know
if that's an overreaction. That just might be a reacting
to what we've seen here.

Speaker 2 (37:58):
So those are.

Speaker 1 (37:59):
Three overreaction or are we overreacting?

Speaker 2 (38:02):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (38:02):
Maybe they're overreactions. Maybe they're not so. All right, Let's
move on to where the books won and where the
public one books did pretty well. Here the Broncos minus
the points. That was a big win for them, The
Colts minus the points, the Cowboys minus the points, and
the Packers minus the points.

Speaker 2 (38:19):
Big wins for the books.

Speaker 1 (38:20):
The public one on the Cleveland Pittsburgh game under, the
Baltimore La Rams under, and the Raiders.

Speaker 2 (38:27):
Minus the points. Those are big wins for the public.

Speaker 1 (38:30):
To move on to props and fantasy football winners and losers.
All right, we got a lot of winners here this week.
Dallas Goddard for Dan's Eagles is huge. Cam Scattaboy, of course,
Trey McBride continues to produce. Tyler Warren is having just
an incredible rookie season for a Titan. Normally tight ends

(38:51):
rookie seasons. They can they can struggle, but we saw
it last year with Brock Bauer and Tyler Warren's having
a good one. Kimani Vidal looks like he's got that
job until Mario Hampton comes back. For the Chargers. Backfield,
Kayshawn Boody is hit or missed, but.

Speaker 2 (39:05):
He was a big winner yesterday.

Speaker 1 (39:06):
Rico Doubtele one of what six players in the last
forty years to have two hundred yards plus and back
to back weeks. Brian Thomas Junior finally we have a
pulse on him. Derreck Henry didn't score but got a
bunch of yards there. Josh Jacobs, big winner. Kendrick Bourne,
Cameron Johnson. He's gonna get a lot of looks for
Tampa Bay with the injuries in that the wide receiver,

(39:28):
So look for Cameron Johnson here, Devon a Chin and
Jaylen Waddle and DK Metcalf really really good winners.

Speaker 2 (39:36):
Losers.

Speaker 1 (39:36):
Saquon Barkley, Dan, we may have a Saquon Barkley problem
for this year. He's not looking that good. The Broncos
Jets game we all lost there where there were no
winners in that one. The Browns running backs were terrible yesterday,
and Travis Etn should have had a good day yesterday
and did not. So those are your props and fantasy losers.

Speaker 6 (39:55):
Andy, I just remember a props in Parlays Morning Show,
and you and Andy are you and Andrew? We're saying, oh,
say Quant'll be fine. I said, he has a really
bad offensive line in front of him. He had a
bunch of carries last year. He has a horrible offensive coordinator.
He's a bad running back on a bad football team.
Right now, that's just that's the reality of it. I
hate to say it, Andy, but the reality of it.

(40:18):
While you're six straight games, six straight games, the Eagles
have been out game.

Speaker 1 (40:22):
That's a saving saving it for the end of the season.
While you're on here, Dan, congratulations to you and me.
We advance in Survivor. Very very well done.

Speaker 2 (40:31):
Let's go, let's go. You went with the.

Speaker 1 (40:33):
Packers, took the UK, took the easy one this week,
and I was with the Rams all over the Ravens.
So all right, let's bring on Steve Merrill. Steve, what
was your what was your favorite?

Speaker 2 (40:46):
Overreaction?

Speaker 1 (40:47):
Baker MVP uh, Jacoby Brissetts better than Kyler Murray and
Jackson Dart and Cam Scataboo have completely changed the Giants.

Speaker 2 (40:56):
What was your favorite?

Speaker 7 (40:57):
Well, I have to apologize, Andy, because I've already overreacted,
and I assumed Joe Flacco was hosting the show today.
He's just been everywhere, So I apologize.

Speaker 5 (41:04):
I was not.

Speaker 7 (41:05):
Expecting to see you. I thought if it had something
to do with orange and a little bit of black
or brown. It'ld be Joe Flacco since it's way you talk.
But it's good to see you. Nonetheless, the preset one
is interesting to me. I just pulled up the numbers
because I was hoping to say, maybe he's got a
better quarterback rating career than Kyler Murray. I could find
a better yard for pass now. Murray's better on every
metric that I just looked at during the careers. So

(41:26):
that's obviously an overreaction. And Murray runs better, so that
one's a no brainer. Mayfield, by the way third and
MVP odds right now, Alan two to one, Mahomes three
to one, Mayfield four to one. So I don't think
that's too much of an overreaction. Four to one odds
might be an overreaction, but he's definitely in the mix.
And then I gotta say I'm drinking the kool aid
on the Jackson dart Skettaboo thing. Oh no, I had

(41:47):
that game on the second half. I like Jackson dart Man.
He's a polite kid, he's nice, he didn't seem too cocky.
He's gotta do Rick shirt off with Fitzpatrick on the
post game show Thursday night. I had to watch. It
was the first time we'd missed my free Thursday night
Prime game all night. We're still six to one this
year on the Thursday Night free picks, and that's the
first one I'd missed because I had the Eagles, so

(42:07):
I was following it closely. And boy did Philly catch
a break yesterday. A lifelong Eagle from my buddy Scott
Walton was so happy the Panthers won that game, so
that that really made up for the Giant loss and
away with Dallas dropping that game yesterday.

Speaker 1 (42:21):
I think Kim Scataboo and Jackson Dart are both going
to be hurting a few weeks if they try and.

Speaker 7 (42:24):
Right, I tot they agree with you. No, there's no
question that was but it is amazing. I mean that team,
if you take out the cowboy terrible defense, they scored
what six and nine points offensively, like in the other
two games to start the season. That was interesting Thursday night.
We'll see which way it goes. I mean, the Eagles
might really be down. The Giants maybe have found a spark.
I think it's probably as always a little bit in between.

Speaker 1 (42:45):
Hey, can you explain to me why Jackson Dark gets
evaluated for a concussion? The coach breaks into the day,
but then he calls running plays. He's calling running plays
for his quarterback that just got evaluated for a concussion.

Speaker 2 (42:59):
He was he was you doing?

Speaker 7 (43:01):
I will tell you that's one of the reasons I'm
kind of buying in on this, because he was visibly
mad that they would not let him back in sooner.
The coach, I've never seen a coach. I'm glad you
brought that up. I've never seen a coach so upset
with like a neutral third party doctor or protocol guy,
whoever that is, that he couldn't get in a player
too sooner. So that tells you the coach is buying
into it. At least. God, it's got to be one

(43:21):
in the ten. Also, but he's so small they didn't
see him for a couple of plays. But yeah, he's
that was fun. Yeah I'm not that's you kind of
want to root for him.

Speaker 1 (43:29):
Don't call running plays for your quarterback but just got
evaluated for a concussion.

Speaker 7 (43:34):
My god, Andy, I thought of you and Dan though,
because remember when we were doing the season wins, we
all said we can't make a case for the Giants
over what was it five and a half?

Speaker 2 (43:42):
I think and a half?

Speaker 7 (43:43):
And you and I both said, like this is the
most one sided, Like you can't make a case for it.
But I said, the one case you could mob probably
make is like the Jaden Daniels scenarios of Jackson Dark
comes in and sparks him. And at that point he
was looking really good in the preseason as well, So
I do think there could be something there. But we'll see.
We'll see if that O line is improved because they've
been so bad in years past.

Speaker 1 (44:03):
Never forget they lost to the Saints. Okay, let's let's
pump the brakes, so let us not forget.

Speaker 7 (44:08):
I used it as a free I used the Saints
as a free plan. I was mad I didn't make
that a best bet a week ago. So that's how
quickly things can change in the NFL.

Speaker 1 (44:15):
Well, let's talk Bears and Commanders here and then we're
going to give out some of your thoughts on baseball.

Speaker 2 (44:19):
Let's start with Bears Commanders. How do you preview this game?

Speaker 5 (44:22):
Yeah?

Speaker 7 (44:22):
First of all, I've got a doubleheader video on wager
Talk TV right now, so I've got a full deep
dive breakdown for this game and also for that Bill's
Falcons game. And by the way, there is a little
bit of a sharp square divide in the game, and
I will go deeper to that in the video. Also,
my favor the public video has the Buffalo Atlanta game.
So some other homework for you viewers after the live
show here today, dig into that video. I've got Buffalo
Atlanta and then this game Chicago Washington at eight to

(44:44):
fifteen Eastern ABC, Not my Washington Commanders against not my
Chicago Bears. I think back to the eighties when Darryl
Green ran that punt return back in the playoff game
at Soldier Field, holding his rib, he pulled the muscles,
he hurtled somebody and scored. This isn't the same Bears team. Obviously,
the Commanders are up and coming. I still don't think
they're necessarily for real. A big win for them last

(45:06):
week against the Chargers. But what jumps out to me
in this game I want to talk about the total
here for a free play is the over and the
Bears run defense right now has been historically bad this season.
They're giving up six point one yards per carry and
one hundred and sixty four rushing yards per game, and
now they're facing a Commander's team that averages almost six
yards per carry on one hundred and fifty six yards

(45:26):
per game. Commanders also have a solid passes attack. They've
actually faced some very difficult pass defenses. In fact, their
opponents played this year allow just five point eight yards
per pass. Bears give up seven point five overall, almost
seven yards per play. Now they are starting to get
a little healthier on defense, and I do think those
numbers are going to come down, just not sure they're
going to come down enough tonight to get this to

(45:47):
be a low scoring game. And on the other side
of the ball, I think the Bears can move it
offensively as well. Like the scheduling set up here. First
of all, for Chicago coming in off the bye week,
and they also had back to back wins before the
bye against Dallas and the Raiders. They put up fifty
six combined points in those games, put up forty five
combined in the first two games. They've actually been moving
the ball better than people realize, and it's been through

(46:07):
the air. Russian attack has been very mediocre, but the
Commander's run defense is solid. The Commander's pass defense is awful.
Give it up over seven and a half yards per
pass this year against teams that averages six point eight.
So let's not overthink this pun intended. I was gonna
say no pun intended, but I'm meant a pun because
you've got a week past a defense against a team
that throws week run d against a team that runs

(46:29):
over the forty nine. Forty nine and a half is
the way to play Monday night football here at eight
to fifteen Eastern. And don't forget, I've got free plays
also in analysis for that Buffalo Atlanta game. Free play
video right here on wager Talk TV. Make sure you
click subscribe. You click that bell as well for an
instant alert.

Speaker 1 (46:45):
All right, let's take a look at baseball. We get
two games today. We got one starting at five o'clock Eastern.
We get one starting at eight o'clock Easter. I'm trying
to see if we've got expected pitchers, and we do,
so we're gonna talk Seattle Logan Gilbert taking them ound
against Toronto. Looks yeah, we got a Toronto's at least

(47:06):
gonna start with the reliever.

Speaker 2 (47:07):
We'll see where they go after that.

Speaker 1 (47:08):
We got Dodgers going with Blake Snell and the Brewers
going with Quintana. I'm gonna let you talk about both
these games here at once. So break these two games
for us. How do you see them going down tonight?

Speaker 7 (47:20):
A little doubleheader action in Major League Baseball for Monday
night here in the baseball playoffs, and it's almost like
the NBA, right, the Mariners and Blue Jays will all
play two games before the Dodgers or the Brewers played
their first game tonight, and we see that so often
in the NBA and NHL playoffs as well. It is
Game two the American League Championships. Hereies at five to
three Eastern. It's a Canadian start time, five oh three

(47:40):
Eastern on Thanksgiving. In no way the Blue Jays can
lose two in a row at home, and I don't
think they will. I like Toronto in this game, and
the money's coming a little bit on the Blue Jays,
pumping this up to a dollar thirty dollars thirty five.
Also like the fact that the pitching match up here
I think favors Toronto. They've done well against Gilbert during
their career twenty nine. This current lineup, this current Blue

(48:00):
Jay lineup is twenty nine for a ninety six batting
over three hundred career against Gilbert, and while he's been
in good current form, I think this is a step
up in class against the Toronto offense. It's due to
breakout a little bit here. After scoring just one run
yesterday on just two hits, I look for a better
offensive effort from the Blue Jays at home and I
don't see them going down to zero in this series.

(48:21):
And something else I'll point out about this matchup is
home road dichotomies. Both of these teams are much stronger
at home this season. Blue Jays regular season fifty four
and twenty seven, forty and forty one on the road. Now,
obviously the Canadian travel factors into that a bit, a
little more than a dozen in the postseason, but they
still have a nice home field advantage. And the Mariners
are even more extreme. Fifty one and thirty at home

(48:42):
this year, thirty nine and forty two in the road.
And I know Seattle won game won yesterday on Sunday,
but I look for the Blue Jays to bounce back.
Home road dichotomies are strong, and it's a bounce back situation.
After the loss. I like the Toronto Blue Jays is
a small favorite against Gilbert as the Blue Jays lineup,
as I mentioned, this hit him well over the years.
That's at five three Eastern on Fox National TV and
Fox Sports one, and then at eight oh eight the

(49:04):
Hawaiian area code. Eight oh eight. We've got the True
TV and TBS game and I'm still trying to get
on impractical Jokers on True TV. The comments below are helping,
so keep them coming. On a more serious note, though,
it looks like Milwaukee has decided on their start and
we'll see how dep goes. We do know Blake Snell
is going for the Dodgers, and I like Snell, veteran
pitcher here having an excellent season two point three five ERA,

(49:27):
and he's been in excellent current form since the end
of Augus, last seven starts a two point three four
ERA and lifetime a Dodger fanned and insider Justin Brisky
told me that the Dodgers are clicking and all cylinder
lowest ERA in the league in September, and it does
appear that they're rounding in the form here. You know,
this is a team I think it was a two
to one favorite preseason seven months ago, and you can't
lay two to month two to one and tie your

(49:49):
money up for seven eight months, especially with baseball futures.
But they were the powerhouse team coming in, so who
would have thought both the Phillies and Brewers had better
records this year in the regular season. Well we see
that doesn't necessarily mean anything. The Phillies are gone and
now the Brewers remain. And the series price, by the way,
as the Dodgers is a two to one favorite to
win this series, so if they're gonna win the series,
they're most likely gonna win Game one. I like them

(50:10):
a dollar fifty favorite tonight with Snell on the mound.
I like this Milwaukee team regular season, but I think
the Dodgers are still the best team in baseball and
this should be a focused spot form and they're in
pretty good current form as well. Let's look at the
Dodgers minus a dollar fifty and once in the Blue
Jays minus a dollar twenty five, a couple of favorites
tonight in Major League Baseball for Games two and one

(50:31):
in the National League and American League Championship Series. And
don't forget if you're liking these freeplay videos, comment below
and thumbs up like. The more thumbs up likes, the
more videos I do each week, including your weeknight college
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the free Thursday Night plays, Sunday Night Monday Night Football
as well, and then of course my top twenty five

(50:51):
college football video for Saturday and NFL fade the public
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(51:13):
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there quicker with shortcut WT Dot Buzz slash sm.

Speaker 2 (51:33):
Thank you very much, Steve Listen.

Speaker 1 (51:35):
I can't believe it, but my colts have one loss,
their ahead of the division, and my Hoosiers are top
three team.

Speaker 2 (51:42):
In the cut. What is going on in the state
of Indiana with Andy?

Speaker 7 (51:45):
I thought to you about an hour ago, I was
reading an article on James Franklin, and by the way,
when they've lost again, I don't I think I saw
there the first team in history to lose twice as
a three touchdown favorite in the same season. I think
that's what I read. So first thing. Any we talked
about Franklin like one in nineteen now against top five
I think Oregon was six at the time, but they
were getting first place votes when they lost that game

(52:06):
again this past week in the Northwestern I ride away,
I was thinking, you got to get rid of Franklin.
I never thought it was gonna happen as fast as
it did. But they had a top five coaching list,
Nebraska coach, the UNLV coach, Iowa state coach, but the
second guy listed was Signetti Indiana, which would really shake
out that conference and he would be my choice. I
saw what he did locally here James Madison, you've seen

(52:26):
what he's done at Indiana. I think that's a possibility.
You hate to see it because as a loyalty thing,
you really feel like you should stay a little longer
since they gave him his first big break. But he's
done an incredible job at multiple schools.

Speaker 1 (52:39):
Here's Adam is all over the Signetti de Penn State.
So here's why you wouldn't do this ten years ago.
You'd take this AYU job. You turn around and then
you go to whatever, right, Okay, So Signetti money's not
going to be a problem.

Speaker 2 (52:55):
IU as deep pockets, Kelly's School of.

Speaker 1 (52:57):
Business, alum all over the place you've now become. Seriously,
we are all more excited about AU football as a
lums than we are basketball. Our basketball program is falling apart.
So you've got a school that is going to be
forever grateful. You've got deep pockets and with ni l
what's the guarantee you can get better players by going.

Speaker 7 (53:18):
To somewhere same conference?

Speaker 1 (53:22):
Now you also have how much more pressure you're going
to be on at Penn State than you are at IU.
At IU, you went eight or nine games each year.
We're going to be happy. Look at Gonzaga, Mark Feuzic
at Gonzaga. I think that's the guy that's done it right.
So if you're Signetti, I'm not sure what who's who's
higher in the rankings right now?

Speaker 2 (53:41):
Why is it?

Speaker 1 (53:42):
Why is I Why is Penn State a better job
than I? You with with nil and everything that's going
on right now, I don't know. I can make the
case there are a lot better jobs in some of
these high pressure You're not dealing with Texas boosters, You're
not dealing with Alabama alumni, You're dealing with IU that
are just e totally grateful for turning your program right.

(54:02):
I could argue, I you, with what he's done, has
now turned this into a top three program, and he
doesn't have the pressure.

Speaker 2 (54:09):
I could argue, I use a better job than Penn State.

Speaker 7 (54:11):
I love it. I mean, you know, I'm a big
quality of life balanced person with sports, betting everything coaching
on the side. So I'm with you on that. I
think it's vastly underrated. And the other thing I'll point
out too, I wanted to ask you is do you
think Franklin's relieved? I think they still owe forty nine million.
I mean, I said that with the Virginia Tech fire
in a couple of weeks ago, they owe him like
six seven million. It's like, you gotta do nothing. Now
you get paid. I don't know.

Speaker 2 (54:31):
I's interesting, he's he's taking care of it.

Speaker 1 (54:33):
I feel bad for the assistant coaches that you know
aren't true, aren't seeing that they.

Speaker 2 (54:36):
Got to up end families and stuff.

Speaker 5 (54:38):
All.

Speaker 1 (54:38):
Hey, listen, it sounds like you're trying to convince yourself.
Facts are facts?

Speaker 2 (54:44):
Do you do you?

Speaker 1 (54:45):
I just made the case of what kind of quality
of life? Like, who's got it better than Mark Fughes,
Who's gonna better in college basketball than the Gonzaga head?

Speaker 7 (54:54):
Yeah, I'm with you. I think I didn't know the
money was comparable. That was the only thing I thought
would switch him. But I think if they're at that level,
like you just said, they've got better players. Maybe now
they're ranked higher. It's like you sold me I'll stay there,
and I'll stay.

Speaker 2 (55:08):
Yeah, they have no.

Speaker 6 (55:09):
Four star or five stars, so they don't have better players.

Speaker 7 (55:12):
Right as I said that, Dan, I knew I missed.
I realized that you.

Speaker 1 (55:17):
Can get you can get the players. The point is
you can get the players. You can get the players.

Speaker 7 (55:23):
I think good. We think basketball guys go to Indiana
for decades. Even Bobby Knight was throwing chairs at him,
so it's like, you know, you know he threw I
do it at the referee once again, I caught myself.
I know he did throw the player. But yeah, I
don't think like Happy Valley in the middle of nowhere
is necessarily a more desirable like college location than Bloomington.

Speaker 4 (55:38):
So no, I agree.

Speaker 6 (55:40):
I think I think the one thing that probably Penn
State fans will sell themselves on and I'm not a
Penn State fan, so you know I got but I
think it's the guy is from Pittsburgh, so I know
they're interesting. There is there is like the oh, you know,
you get to coach the team you grew up rooting for.
I mean there is, there is that emotional All I
know is if it's Matt Rule.

Speaker 2 (55:59):
I'm so out on Penn State. That's that's all.

Speaker 4 (56:03):
You're just getting James Franklin for less.

Speaker 7 (56:05):
James franks He was the top of the article. Dan
that was the first name of the five they listened
to that article. He's the odds, which I think would
be a mistake to the UNLV, he's the odds on
favorite to start.

Speaker 6 (56:16):
The Athletic Directory is really good friends with him, so
with him, I think it would be an absolute mistake.
It's a lateral move if you bring in rule yeah.

Speaker 1 (56:25):
Yeah, it really depends on what kind of personality sting
that he has. If he loves jumping from school to
school and building up, if that's his jam, then yeah
he's going to jump from you. But if he's like, hey,
I found the perfect spot, the perfect job that I'll stay.

Speaker 7 (56:38):
I know for me Andy too, my first sow is
it's kind of a loyalty thing. I know that has
no way in nowadays, but like they gave him his
first big FBS job, Like I don't know for me
that would weigh in, but I know it's a different
level for these guys. So you see what happens place
your bets. I'm sure. I'm sure Dave Mason give you
some odds on that.

Speaker 1 (56:54):
This week I heard I heard your buyout from wager
Talks not quite as big as James Franklin.

Speaker 7 (57:01):
I'll tell you right now, I could live with a
forty nine million dollars buyout and not have to handicap anymore.
But I would miss doing the shows. Actually, I really
enjoyed doing the shows with you in the videos. But yeah,
I know there's worse situations than having a crap season
being told you like one in nineteen now in big
games your lifetime, including losing to Notre Dame not noted.
Yeah they lost too. Yeah they lost in Notre Dame

(57:22):
and Indiana did as well last year. Right did they
both lost?

Speaker 3 (57:24):
Oh?

Speaker 1 (57:24):
Yeah, Indiana got killed by noticed they both lost a
Notre Dame in the playoffs?

Speaker 7 (57:27):
Right, isn't that ironic? So that's an inter coincidence?

Speaker 1 (57:30):
All right, Steve Merrill, everyone, thank you so much. Thanks Monday,
thanks for joining us. All Right, we're gonna do all
around the world real quick. We've got a Monday Night
Football best bet. This is my favorite prop of the week.
We put all of our props in before Thursday Night Football.
This was my favorite. I've done something kind of special.
I included two NHL props for tonight. I want you
guys to get a look of what we do with

(57:51):
NHL props. This is these are This is a daily
sport where you could build your bank roll really really confidently.
We hit over sixty percent of our props last year
in NHL, so I've attached those to the Monday Night play.
We just have one NFL prop, but I threw in
two NHL plays. I want you to see our write
ups and kind of how we operate with NHL props.
It's a great source to a way to build the bankroll.

(58:13):
So two props from NHL one in Monday Night Football.

Speaker 2 (58:16):
So grab that. We're on a twelve and six NFL run.

Speaker 1 (58:19):
For whatever reason, primetime games have been great seven to
one this season in primetime games. I don't know why
we've been seeing primetime so well, but it's worked. So
you can get their WT dot buzs, slash al and
we got a couple free picks on that page as well.
All right, let's do free picks from all around the
world and then we're done on this Monday. Let's go
Bill's Falcons. Let's go Josh Palmer over eighteen and a

(58:40):
half receiving He's gone way over this total in four
out of five games. In fact, the four games that
he's gone over, he's at twenty five plus receiving yards.

Speaker 2 (58:49):
Dalton Kincaid is banged up.

Speaker 1 (58:50):
I think this is going to be a pretty close game,
and I think there's going to be a need for
both teams to pass ball through the air.

Speaker 2 (58:56):
So Josh Palmer over his receiving. We go to Dodgers
and Brewers.

Speaker 1 (59:01):
These these outs over props have been really good that
I've been giving out on this show. So we'll go
to Blake Snell over seventeen and a half outs. He's
gone over in five straight games. He hasn't pitched in
a week, he's well rested. We know this Dodgers' bullpen
is a liability. If he's pitching good in the game
as close, they are gonna leave him in. So let's
take a look at Blake Snell over this total, and
then Bill's commanders DeAndre Swift or not Bill's commanders, they're

(59:24):
supposed to say, Bears commanders, My bad, that was me
on the graphics. Bears commanders DeAndre Swift over two and
a half receptions. He's gone over every game this season.
Commanders give up four receptions per game to running backs.
So the Bears commanders there, DeAndre Swift over two and
a half receptions. Thanks to Gianni, Thanks to Bill, thanks

(59:45):
to Steve, great show, and thank you all.

Speaker 2 (59:47):
In the chat, make sure you hit the like button.

Speaker 1 (59:49):
Make sure you leave a comment below tell us what
your best bet is today. We got hockey that's already started,
We've got hockey all day, We've even got a CFL
game that's getting ready to kick off, and we got
two Monday night football games. There's plenty of bets to
take advantage of, so go check out wager talk dot
com five dollars. Tuesday is tomorrow. We'll get you ready
for a big Tuesday. Good luck on your bets today.
We'll see you tomorrow. Take care