WagerTalk Today | Free Sports Picks | MNF & NBA Picks & Props | World Series | 10/27

On Monday's edition of WagerTalk Today, Steve Merril previews tonight's NFL Week 8 finale in the Washington Commanders vs Kansas City Chiefs Monday Night Football matchup and takes a look at World Series Game 3 between the Mariners vs Dodgers. Bill Krackomberger joins the show to talk the latest in the sports betting industry and give his favorite prop for MNF. Andy Lang reacts to Sunday's NFL action, provides props and shares free picks and Gianni The Greek gives daily betting advice – don't miss out!

Intro 00:00
Gianni the Greek 1:20
Weekend Recap 1:30
Steam Report 3:10
CFB Rankings 5:30
A&M Rankings hot take 8:10
UFC Recap 11:51
Bill Krackomberger 16:00
Bill on NBA Scandal 16:20
NBA Prop 19:53
Do These guys bet their own stuff 20:50
World Series Game 3 25:20
Andy's NFL Week 8 Overreactions 29:22
Where the Books won/Public won 30:40
Player Prop Winners/Losers 31:35
Steve Merril 34:16
CFB Buyouts 34:30
Lamar Jackson "injury" 37:46
Commanders vs Chiefs 41:00
World Series Game 3 Blue Jays vs Dodgers 44:00
Andy Lang All Around the World Free Picks (NFL MNF & NBA) 51:38
NBA Previews 52:58

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Your life. Welcome to Wager Talk Today, the gold standard
of sports betting shows, where we talk the talk and
walk the walk. Run a little late today, but even
the production gremlins can't hold us down. It is Monday.
We got an incredible light up to kick off the week.
Yanni the Greek is gonna drop Steve Report crack man.
It's gonna bring NBA prop great start to the season

(00:21):
for him. On that, we got World Series. We got
Steve Merrill previews, Monday Night football between Commanders and Chiefs.
We're gonna break down World Series. If you're betting this week,
you are in the right place. All right, We're gonna
get the show started. Uh, you guys are this is great.
The reasons for why we're running late, I blame Rosier,

(00:42):
he had the over for starting. That's great, David. This
is part of the government shutdown. This is the I
blame Sarah Connor, the the reason the terminators are after her.
And of course Vegas is trying to stop me and
the team from taking money by canceling the show. Yes,
awesome work, guys, Thank you very much. And Colin, it

(01:03):
was aw what a great I'm trying to bang with
Andy Lang, what's the hold up? Yes, yes, Colin, that
was a great bet. We went ahead to head for fun.
Your your punishment was you get my NFL props pack.
We go six and four and we hit three plus
one fifty So awesome, awesome job, great weekend. All right,
Well let's start with Yanni. Yanni just got in here. Yanni,

(01:27):
Happy Monday. How are you? We got the links and everything.
How was your weekend on the splitt?

Speaker 2 (01:33):
And like, I lost a little bit over the last
seven days, I think like four units, but a lot
of that was the futures that I have that didn't
come in the Seattle Future and didn't make any money
off of that series, which cost me.

Speaker 3 (01:46):
But it was expected.

Speaker 4 (01:47):
Man.

Speaker 3 (01:47):
I was just so hot in NFL and college football.

Speaker 2 (01:50):
You get that little cooling off which was like the
last like ten days. But I felt really good about
yesterday's plays and cash the Sunday Night Football again. So
now nine and two in the last eleven Sunday Night Football,
Monday Night Football, and I fired again on Monday Night Football.
I really liked tonight's game a lot, but I love
the World Series game. I passed on Game two after

(02:14):
hitting Game one and fire to five percent tonight in
the World Series. Again, it's the first five percent I
fired in the World Series and just set up nicely.
And then I got confirmation by the most trusted baseball
group I work with. So hopefully we start the week
off with two big winners tonight and have a huge

(02:36):
week excited about the NFL and college football had already
started working next on the upcoming weeks games.

Speaker 1 (02:44):
Awesome, awesome, Yeah, great weekend in NFL for me. We
had three plus one fifties in our props. That was
pretty awesome. I feel like we left a little bit
of money on the table, but you're never going to
be disappointed with with the with a winning weekend. So
any sharp back that we should be aware of for
Monday night, for upcoming college upcoming NFL World Series, What

(03:05):
are you see.

Speaker 2 (03:05):
In well tonight's NFL game. The line just moved so
significantly off the look ahead if you remember, the look
ahead was five and a half. The situation with Jaden
Daniels is the reason we're looking at eleven.

Speaker 3 (03:18):
Right now, not seeing all that much risk.

Speaker 2 (03:22):
I thought there would be a ton of money line
parlays and teasers and other points spread parlays on the
Monday night game tied into Kansas City. Just not the case,
but they probably will be heavier on the favorite. They
usually are when you add in all the exotics and

(03:43):
all the teasers and stuff. But not seeing anything really
sticking out. Nothing from the betting syndicates. We have seen
the total go up from forty seven to forty eight,
but again there was an adjustment made off of that
look ahead. It's one of those Monday night games, you know,
when you got a double digit home favorite. It's just

(04:04):
tough and probably a better game to book as far
as you know, finding a lot of value the betting syndias.

Speaker 3 (04:12):
I haven't seen anything on the side or.

Speaker 2 (04:16):
The total so far, but again it's early in the day,
and with the NFL it's usually the player prompts team
totals first half, the stuff we always talk about, and
I just haven't seen anything yet in there. The only
thing I've seen today is NBA. I've seen NBA action.
I always wait for NFL and college football after today

(04:40):
only because what usually gets hit are those look aheads,
and the key is looking at the odd's logic screen
and seeing if there's follow through because a lot of
times it's taken advantage of those look aheadlines in the NFL.

Speaker 3 (04:54):
Where the limits are a lot lower than when they
open up.

Speaker 2 (04:57):
But I haven't seen anything yet looking into next week's
NFL and college football. But again, it's you know, nine
o'clock Monday morning on the West Coast, so you know
that's not surprising. Things will start coming in as the
day goes on, especially in college football. They usually get
out on Mondays. But yeah, it was a good, good

(05:19):
weekend of NFL and college football and not hearing any
complaints from betters or books.

Speaker 3 (05:25):
It was just one of those weeks.

Speaker 2 (05:27):
Looking at the rankings, I'll real quickly, I still disagree
Texas A and m is not the third best team
in the country.

Speaker 3 (05:33):
Georgia Tech's not the eighth best team in the country.
You can take advantage college football.

Speaker 5 (05:37):
Just keep those.

Speaker 2 (05:39):
Over ranked, overrated teams that are in the top five
in the top ten just because they're undefeated or they
have one loss. But just like we saw with Miami
getting exposed two weeks ago, we saw Oklahoma get exposed
a few weeks ago to Texas. Same thing's gonna happen
to those teams as well. The cream will rise to
the top. It's Ohio State, it's Alabama, it's ore Agon,

(06:02):
the usual suspects, Georgia.

Speaker 3 (06:04):
All the same teams will rise to the top. One
that dost settles.

Speaker 1 (06:08):
Uh, David asks why has the line not went down?
Deebo and McLaurin are playing whide receivers, aren't moving lines?

Speaker 3 (06:18):
No, they're worth that horrible point and yeah.

Speaker 1 (06:23):
Yeah running back same thing. The Giants line isn't going
to be affected by scattery. So scata bo it scattaboo.
I can never get his name right. Do you say
it one way? Someone corrects you the other way? Uh so?

Speaker 4 (06:36):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (06:36):
So what are your what do you have your power
rankings here? For college? Go through some of those because
always seems to be a hot topic. Oh and by
the way, I will tell you, uh, I have no
inside knowledge of this. I am pretty much gonna guarantee
people are gonna take Kansas City people that lost on
like the Bengals or whatever. I bet they'll take Kansas
City at night and put it with something next week.

Speaker 3 (06:57):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (06:58):
I would.

Speaker 3 (07:00):
Be at home on Monday night football.

Speaker 1 (07:02):
Yeah, absolutely, absolutely the Colts.

Speaker 2 (07:04):
Here's my rankings right now in Ohio State's starting to
get further and further away. A few weeks ago, if
you asked me, I would have said, Ohio State's three
points better than the next best team. I now have
them five points better than the second best team. That's Alabama.
Behind Alabama, I have Notre Dame. I know others will

(07:26):
say they have Oregon. I have Notre Dame by very slightly,
not even.

Speaker 4 (07:30):
A full point.

Speaker 2 (07:31):
And then I have Oregon, and then I have Georgia.
Right behind Georgia's Indiana. Right behind Indiana is Texas. Right
behind Texas is Mississippi, followed by Tennessee. Penn State three four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten. Yeah,
that's my top ten right there. That's my top ten up.

Speaker 3 (07:52):
To three and four pen State three and four.

Speaker 2 (07:54):
Penn State is the tenth best team in the country
power rating wise. And here I'm going to say it
right now. If Penn State was playing Texas A and
M on a neutral field, on a neutral field, Penn
State should be a one point favorite. I'm telling you
right now it probably won't be that way. If they played,
they would have Texas A and M be the favorite.

(08:14):
Because the book's job is to manage risk. It's not
to predict the outcome. It's to manage risk, and that's
exactly what would happen. They would make Texas A and
M the favorite, and Steam would come in on the
Penn State side, in fact, against Georgia Tech.

Speaker 3 (08:29):
Let me tell you this is funnier. Two point eight.

Speaker 2 (08:32):
Where is Georgia Tech so low? Oh my gosh, sixty four?
I swear to you you.

Speaker 1 (08:40):
Have to keep scrolling down.

Speaker 2 (08:43):
Georgia Tech would be getting a touchdown to Penn State
on a neutral field. Yes, Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech, that's
eighth ranked Georgia Tech against the No. Rank Penn State
team would be getting a touchdown against Penn State. Yeah,
I'm telling you that right now. You could argue that
they were telling me on bet on It, does this
guy even watch college football?

Speaker 3 (09:04):
Does he even watch college football?

Speaker 2 (09:06):
Well, I'm twenty and seven on bet on It, twenty
and seven and I'm up over one hundred units betting
college football this year, number one in profit, so I
know a little bit about college football and finished number
one in profit there I think like twice in the
last four years.

Speaker 3 (09:20):
So college football.

Speaker 2 (09:21):
When it comes to college sports, college basketball, college football,
don't even go there.

Speaker 3 (09:25):
I'll put my power ratings up against any out there.

Speaker 1 (09:29):
Love it. Uh you see Panda so has already done it,
Casey and stuff next weekend shout out to your pay
was always one of the best. Yeah absolutely, Uh yeah,
I've been loving the opponent of Ohio State thirteam total unders.
That's been an absolute cash cow.

Speaker 2 (09:48):
Is you got the number one most efficient defense followed
by the fifth most efficient offense. The only thing close
to that is Alabama, who's the second most efficient defense
sixth most efficient offense. So like they're right there, but
Ohio States above everybody else. And again, in a sixty
minute football game, Ohio State could lose, Argument could beat them,

(10:11):
Alabama could beat them. Not there, Dame could beat them,
Indiana could even beat them. But the power rating is
still the power rating, and it is what it is
like Again, anything could happen, We see it all the time,
sireal Gun was ready to beat tom Aspin on Saturday night.

Speaker 3 (10:27):
But things happen.

Speaker 2 (10:28):
But the randomness of ipokes, you don't know, you know,
same thing with sixty minutes of football. Ohio State could lose,
but they're still the best team.

Speaker 1 (10:38):
God, what a bizarro UFC card. My Gody guy break
his ankle in the third round. Uh yees completely wild.

Speaker 2 (10:47):
The funnier thing is I actually downgraded Penn State this week.
This is after a downgrade of Penn State. They killed
the seven points, So this isn't like this is what
the new number that I'm telling you. Yeah, I look
at the rankings and it's so crazy I have I'm
telling you funny Georgia Tech just cracked my top thirty five.

(11:07):
They just cracked my top thirty five. B YU, not
even in my top twenty. They're They're just in my
top twenty five. So like those on defeat, those teams
like that you could really take advantage of because there's
no way, b why us the tenth best team in
the country. There's twenty teams that would be favored over
them on a neutral field. That's that's how you take

(11:29):
advantage of college football by those over ranked, over value teams.

Speaker 1 (11:33):
Oh, Georgia Tech has that quarterback that's gonna get killed.
I mean he's gonna get hurt. There's no way he
can survive the rest of the season. And then you
know they're they're they're hanging on for dear life. So yeah,
YOUFC any thoughts on what happened in Gon and aspinall.

Speaker 2 (11:49):
No, now we're looking at back now, back to back
weeks of like just weirdness. You know, either the refs
or judges or you can't have that. Man, there's got
to be like again, we keep saying this, and we've
been saying it forever, so it's not going to get changed.
But it's frustrating. It's frustrating as a fan. It's frustrating.
Is better and rest the short, it's frustrating for the organization,

(12:09):
the UFC. They're not the ones that pick the refs
or pick the judges and they got to deal with
all of that as well. Yeah, I thought it was uh,
what's it called U terrible finish to that fight. You
don't know what was going to happen. Aspirnau could have
won that fight. But I think if they when they
do rebook it, I don't think we're gonna get aspenal
minus four hundred again. I'm pretty sure of that that

(12:31):
won't happen, just because of the narrative and the perception.
We didn't see much, but you know, Gon was ahead
in that round and and.

Speaker 3 (12:39):
If anything, you're probably gonna get Aspenal.

Speaker 2 (12:41):
Now at a discount, it'll probably be aspinall that offers
you a great bet in the rematch because of the
overreaction to what happened.

Speaker 3 (12:50):
So that's the beauty of sports betting.

Speaker 1 (12:52):
Man.

Speaker 2 (12:52):
We all watch the same things, we all read the
same stats, but we we we we break them down differently,
you know what I mean. So that that's what makes
markets what they are. Difference of opinions. It's a great thing.

Speaker 1 (13:04):
So I gotta tell you, I if I was in
the corner of more fighters, I would tell them to
do exactly what Aspinal did, which is, if you're even
slightest compromise with a low blow or an eye, I'm
not fighting anymore. Like what happened to Kevin Holland that
he they kind of made him fight and he lost,
Like I would think, exactly.

Speaker 4 (13:23):
You see it.

Speaker 2 (13:24):
You saw it like that that week that the Vancouver
card had happened twice with that other where uh uh
remember what's the name that had a minute had like
four minutes to finish the fight because he was behind
two rounds and.

Speaker 1 (13:38):
Got Drew Dober knocked out. Dober got four minutes to
rest as well.

Speaker 3 (13:43):
Yes, yes, And I love Dober. I actually sold Dover
that morning at Starbucks.

Speaker 2 (13:49):
The fight, I swear, and I was like, I actually
saw him the day of his fight, and you wish
him good luck. Yeah, it's not his fault. You're going
to take advantage of it. How can you blame the guy?
But yeah, not fair to the opponent. He's got kicked
in the balls that hard, so he's trying to even
catch a breath and you're able to rest and get
ready to blitz them and try to finish the fight.

Speaker 3 (14:11):
Yeah, how's that fair?

Speaker 1 (14:13):
I know, I know. Well, we got a lot of
to talk about it throughout this week with college and NFL.
What do you have up for everyone tonight? Yeah?

Speaker 2 (14:19):
Big week, big week, and I'm kicking it off on
Monday with a big day today. Last night we ended
it the perfect way, swept to four percent in the
NHL and hit our Sunday Night football, rolling that over,
got Monday Night Football four percent in there, hit nine
of the last eleven, and got my first five percent
of the World Series up tonight in Game three. I

(14:41):
love these two bets. Start off the week, pick up
about nine plus units and we'll see what else we
could confirm between now and the end of the day,
Sunday's NFL will be up, Saturday's college football will be
up because already working on those matchups. So best of
luck the week ahead, brother, and that the whole Age
Talk team as well.

Speaker 1 (15:00):
All right, thank you Yanni the Greek Paul. We'll be
doing some NBA. Bill's gonna break do an NBA prop.
I got a free proping all around the world, and
I'll give you a breakdown on the Thunder and the
Mavericks game tonight. Got a pretty strong I got a
pretty strong take on that game. So we'll be doing
that a little bit later. So we got you covered
with a little bit of nb A. I have a

(15:21):
Monday Night football prop that is up coming off a
six and four day. Yesterday we had three plus one fifties,
which just made it an incredible week. So we've locked
in profit for this week in NFL. That's two profitable
weeks in a row. We keep chugging along in NFL.
It's been one of the bright spots. We have one
best bet that is up. If you didn't get the
week pack, you can still get the best bet that
is up tonight, Locked and loaded. Wager Talk Dot com

(15:44):
let's bring in crack.

Speaker 4 (15:45):
Man and.

Speaker 1 (15:48):
Nice start to the NBA season. Bill, I see your
six and one to start. I've kind of waited. I
got my first prop up for clients this week. So
do you like I like waiting a few weeks. You
obviously like getting right off as the season start. I'm
guessing you're seeing some of the softer lines before the
books can adjust.

Speaker 4 (16:06):
Yeah. Hey, good morning, Andy, and everyone watching appreciate it. Yeah.
NBA props just like NFL props.

Speaker 6 (16:13):
They're my fourth's what I bet on, and I've been
talking about it for years, and of course we have the.

Speaker 4 (16:20):
Big scandal that came out last week, and.

Speaker 6 (16:22):
I have like people reaching out to me, like aunts
and cousins and people all over the country. They want
to know if I'm involved in it. I mean, what
you know, Oh, you gamble for a living? Are you
involved in that NBA thing? I just amazing how even
the public sometimes they're just so naive, Like do you

(16:44):
think of involved? I could bet like a couple thousand
bucks out here on NBA props, So you think I'm
involved in getting down a ridiculous amounts of money that
they're claiming these people got down but yes, I talk
about it all the time. Andy, me and my team,
we scour NBA sites, we scour social media, and the

(17:05):
number one thing is beat reporters. So if it's if
getting information off of a website or reading a social
on a beat reporter is guilt is illegal, then I'm
gonna be out of business, that's for sure. This is
not inside stuff that these people call inside information.

Speaker 4 (17:24):
So anyway, I just thought that was kind of fun.

Speaker 6 (17:27):
I think a lot more stuff's gonna come out about
that stuff too, Andy. I know we weren't probably scheduled
to talk about this stuff, but to be real blunts,
I just think that I know how much trouble I have,
even when I go back East and try to bet
the counters and the kiosk on NBA prop bets and
NFL prop bets player props, I know how much trouble

(17:48):
I go through. I could bet here at Westgate, I
could bet here circa one thousand each.

Speaker 4 (17:54):
They used to be two thousand. They cut me.

Speaker 6 (17:56):
Down to a thousand from last year to this year,
and the juice went was double.

Speaker 4 (18:01):
It used to be one ten, it's one fifteen or
one twenty.

Speaker 6 (18:04):
And so I had MGM, I have South Point at
the counter only maybe Cazars if I can go to
the counter only these places. You know they severely limited
props years ago, so anyway, props is still my forte
and the reason why is perfect example. I went seventeen
and twelve last week on wager Talk. The props I

(18:28):
actually tell people to bet two and a half times
more than an NFL side or an NBA side or
anything else, so you're actually get seventeen to twelve is
even more profitable because you're betting more percentage of bankroll
on the proposition bets, and they're easily beatable compared to
the NBA side and NFL sides, which are very efficient markets.

Speaker 4 (18:50):
I talk about this all the time.

Speaker 6 (18:52):
I know I am a broken record, but yeah, I
do start out early and I'll continue that throughout the
I'm gonna beat you.

Speaker 4 (19:02):
Got no chance to beat me on NFL and NBA
prop It's that simple. So I'm giving him out to
the public.

Speaker 6 (19:10):
I don't give him out to the public like other
people do and say you can bet this number at
hard Rock and Florida.

Speaker 4 (19:18):
Really wow, it's really nice.

Speaker 6 (19:20):
He is sending me that when it's four yards worse
at DraftKings and Fandel.

Speaker 4 (19:24):
I mean, I don't do that. I'm not gonna pad
my record with that.

Speaker 6 (19:27):
If I did that, like many other people sell in
the space, I'd have a hell of a better record,
just like you think some of these spaghetti guys have
better records. So all this being said, here, let's go
with Morants. Over his points tonight. Just want to give
you the right, the right number two All right, Morants,
let's get his number Grizzlies with meranz.

Speaker 4 (19:50):
Yeah, twenty four and a halfs right minus dollar fifteen.

Speaker 6 (19:53):
So over his points tonight up against a Warriors team
that just gives up a ton of points in the
paint where he does most of his damage.

Speaker 4 (20:02):
Let me be once, So he's.

Speaker 6 (20:04):
Eighty three percent of his points are literally come from
the paint. So this and then this is a good
defense for him. High total of two thirty nine too,
So they're expecting some points here.

Speaker 4 (20:17):
I'd like to see if he can get thirty plus.

Speaker 6 (20:20):
And as long as the game stays close and he's
out of foul trouble and stuff, I think we get there.
So that's my NBA prop for everyone tonight. And I
just put out an NFL prop on wager Talk. It
just it just went out. It's on tonight's Kansas City
Chief Game.

Speaker 1 (20:37):
Also love it, love it. We have an interesting question
which is perfect for when you and I are talking
from John Limb. I'm curious these guys sell picks. Do
they also place bet themselves? Bill, you ever place the bet?

Speaker 4 (20:53):
You know what?

Speaker 6 (20:53):
Though, honestly, John's asking a very legitimate question.

Speaker 4 (20:58):
And why is he asking a very legitimate question like that?

Speaker 6 (21:00):
Why Because there are so many of these Snake Wall
salesman and charlottean's out there that don't place bets. So
I fully understand why you would ask these type of questions.

Speaker 4 (21:13):
And you know, listen, I just go to one of
my accounts that I have up here, my MGM account
for me yesterday. Do I place bets? Yeah?

Speaker 6 (21:21):
I think I play bets. There's some fifteen bets on
prop bets. I can keep on scrolling till the cows
come home. Here, show more, you always have the press
show more on MGM. Yeah, there's you know, winners losers.
But I won on props.

Speaker 4 (21:36):
I'm gonna win on props. It's just what it is.
But yeah, do I place bett bets?

Speaker 6 (21:40):
Yeah, I happen to be one of the guys in
the space that I'm willing to say.

Speaker 4 (21:47):
I'm willing to say that.

Speaker 6 (21:48):
There's no one in this space that bets more money
on me on games than me.

Speaker 4 (21:53):
On stuff than me pending bets is my pending bets
at west Case.

Speaker 6 (21:59):
There this fifty seven thousand tending on my Westgate account.

Speaker 4 (22:03):
I mean, you know, yeah, well I bet, yeah, I
bet yeah.

Speaker 6 (22:08):
But listen, I would never volunteer that. You guys, someone asked,
I'm showing you, but yes, I think it's someone. By
the way, you don't have to bet these type of amounts.
I'm not saying that. You know, some of the sharpest
brains in the world if they had to get involved
in sweating giant bets. I think right away about Billy Walters,

(22:28):
and I think about Michael Kent. So if Michael ever
knew the numbers that was being bet for him being
part of the team and stuff, you know, I'm not
gonna use I shouldn't use Michael. But there's other people
that are originators. If they knew that might get involved
in their decision process where they might get a little

(22:49):
bit more nervous or something.

Speaker 4 (22:51):
Let let us handle the better. Yeah, so I'm gonna bet.
I'm not gonna sweat a lot of things. And but
by the way, I do something rare.

Speaker 6 (23:01):
I give the game out for the bet out, especially
props that goes out to the clients first before I bet.

Speaker 4 (23:08):
I don't front run people.

Speaker 6 (23:09):
I'm not gonna give you a line of forty two
and a half and I went under forty four and
a half. That's that's bullshit. I'm not gonna do that.
So anyway, But however, you have to search around at
different sites though, because I find differences in yards, differences
in points.

Speaker 4 (23:27):
I have a lot of places at the bet.

Speaker 6 (23:28):
Sometimes there are three, four, five, six eight yards of
difference on an NFL player. So yes, the answer is yes,
I just showed you a little example. But I also,
like I said, give it to the clients first.

Speaker 1 (23:40):
So I started with a small bankroll, built it up,
took all the money out and started a business. So Bill,
I'm back to down to this to a small bankroll,
trying that build it up. But I got but I
got a business out of it, so I was very
very happy. So what are you gonna do?

Speaker 4 (23:59):
Just keep on firing. Go ahead, you.

Speaker 1 (24:01):
Got any World Series insights?

Speaker 4 (24:03):
Wow, how about this?

Speaker 6 (24:05):
So you know, of course I look at the line
on this game, it's still like the mad Max is
still like a giant dog here.

Speaker 4 (24:13):
Now I understand the situation. He's a little bit older.
Now he's forty one. Maybe he's like forty one years old.

Speaker 6 (24:18):
So the situation when Max on the mountain night for
Toronto to be I don't know if you've ever been
this big of a dog. I seen like plus one
seventy five at one spot. Yeah, this is unbelievable. He's
the first picture in Major League Baseball history too.

Speaker 4 (24:35):
I read to pitch for four different teams in the
World Series. It's unbelievable. Yeah, look, look at your good
job by the guys there.

Speaker 6 (24:42):
One ninety five plus one seventy five year Probably even
can get more on that.

Speaker 4 (24:46):
Not that I'm betting it, but I just pretty interesting. Yeah.
Max is an amazing person.

Speaker 6 (24:53):
Oh yeah, someone just text me the game the pitch
for Washington all right, Detroit Rangers and Blue Jays.

Speaker 4 (24:59):
Wow, that is amazing.

Speaker 6 (25:02):
But again, this is a big, big win for the
Dodgers on Saturday, puts them at the favor of the
World Series again. Kind of surprised at these numbers. They're
back to like a two fifty favorite again in the
World Series after one and one, after Toronto dominated in
the first game. But of course you had a great
pitching matchup there. It did a great job on Saturday,

(25:25):
a full complete game.

Speaker 4 (25:27):
That guy's amazing.

Speaker 6 (25:28):
Sometimes, my god, But listen, it's the best time of
the year to watch sports. You have the World Series,
you have college football, you have pro football. Now you
have of course college basketball starting. Great time of the year,
great time of the year of va here eighty degrees
every day the next ten days.

Speaker 4 (25:45):
They just look at the forecast seventy eight to eighty. Wow.

Speaker 6 (25:48):
But yeah, so that's kind of what's going on in
my world. Had a nice week again for the wager
talk guys.

Speaker 4 (25:55):
That's what I do. And yeah, I don't promise you
the world. I don't promise you sixty seventy percent.

Speaker 6 (26:00):
I'm gonna lose fifty two to fifty three games, fifty
three decisions. I'm sorry, I'm gonna lose forty two to
forty three decisions out of every hundred.

Speaker 4 (26:08):
It's just gonna happen.

Speaker 6 (26:09):
Anyone else tells you different, anyone else promises, these you know,
great numbers, and these kids on Instagram and TikTok and
showing off their fancy stuff and how great they do
with this and that. You know, yeah, okay, they they
really have a bridge to sell you to.

Speaker 4 (26:24):
It's an old saying.

Speaker 1 (26:25):
I gotta tell you, Bill, I'm glad you said that,
because I've told people from the very beginning my goal
for this NFL season is that hit fifty eight percent
of props.

Speaker 4 (26:33):
That's great.

Speaker 1 (26:33):
It's not seventy percent. It's not seventy five percent. It's
a lofty goal of fifty eight percent of props.

Speaker 4 (26:40):
It's gonna make people a lot of money. Fifty eight percent,
let me be. Let me be once.

Speaker 6 (26:45):
Fifty five percent is going to make people a lot
of money.

Speaker 4 (26:49):
You have good bankroll management, good skill sets.

Speaker 6 (26:52):
Don't go off half cocked, don't go off chasing sides
and totals on games like Sunday night, Monday night, Thursday
night football. You'll make yourself a little lot of money betting
on these props. That's where I live, That's what I
base my betting career off of.

Speaker 1 (27:06):
Yeah, it's not the sexiest thing to say, like, oh,
try and hit fifty five percent, try and hit fifty
eight percent. But like you said, if you've lived it,
you know how much, you know how big your bankroll
can be after just hitting there. It just sounds it
just sounds kind of weird to just say, oh, yeah,
we're barely going to be above fifty percent and that's
good enough to build up a bankroll. So you already
mentioned it, But tell everyone once again, what do you

(27:27):
have up for tonight?

Speaker 6 (27:28):
So yeah, I went over to the wager talk site
there and just to see that they have my packages
up still, which are the seven day pass for ninety
nine bucks. But I'm telling you you should lock me
up for like the ninety days or even if we're
at the Super Bowl. Super Bowl props. Props is what
you want to be on. You want to bet, like
like I said, two and a half times more than

(27:50):
you want to bet on other stuff that you bet
on your owner or even even my stuff NBA NFL sides.

Speaker 4 (27:57):
I don't do many NBA sides NFL sides. People want,
I get it.

Speaker 6 (28:01):
But anyway, yeah, so you can get a one year past,
get the ninety day pass, but like I said, you
should lock me up to the Super Bowl, Super Bowl
props are great. The and the NFL props throughout the
season are rolling along.

Speaker 4 (28:13):
NBA props.

Speaker 6 (28:14):
Like you said, we've had an unbelievable hot start, and yeah,
so there you go.

Speaker 1 (28:20):
Awesome stuff, Bill Crackman, thank you very much for joining us.
Let's have a great week. Can't wait to talk to
you again next Monday, Bill crack Man. See James, what
business do you have? I developed a skincare product for
people with diabetes. I funded it with money I made
from the bank roll. So it was a it's it's
it's a grind, it's a lot of fun. But yeah,
that's how I funded it. Just best way, best way

(28:46):
to win three NFL games is to have a four
team parlay. Yeah that's true. Or phrase was never said
on this show. Justin that is very very well said.
So great. I'm gonna get Steve Merrill's thoughts when he
comes on about the Lamar Jackson thing. I think it
was blown completely out of proportion. I know we had

(29:07):
a question about that. So all right, let's do overreactions.
Let's do where the books won, where the public one,
and let's do some prop and fantasy winners and losers
are we overreacting. Not saying these are overacting, I'm just saying,
are we overreacting? Justin Fields was always the right starter
for the Jets? It was never in doubt. He was

(29:28):
always the right starter. Are we overreacting? Sneaky one? Are
the Falcons just really a bottom of the league team?
Are they just bad? They're three and four? Got boat
raced at home to Miami. I know Pennix wasn't there,
but maybe they're just bad. The Giants are cursed. I
don't know, man, they can't get anything to go their way.
Poor Caves Kataboo. The Ravens lied about Lamar Jackson. I

(29:51):
will wait to talk to Stemar about this one because
I don't understand the outrage about this one. And then
I'm actually I'm gonna ask Steve about this one. Firing
college coach. Here we go again. Do these schools and
people realize there's not just like one hundred great college
coaches out there. I don't understand why they fire guys
so quickly, and they have these huge buyouts and then

(30:13):
it's just rinse and repeat. Steve follows college football way
more than I do, but I don't understand this going
through college coaches. I'm talking to you, sec. I just
don't I don't understand that one. I think firing coaches
is such an overreaction to a couple games. I just
I don't get it. Whatever, All right, let's move on

(30:34):
to where the books won and where the public one.
Not a whole lot from the books. It was, there
wasn't a whole lot of consensus, but falcons, money line
and teasers just got blown out of the water. That
destroyed a lot of things. So that's where the books
one big, where the public one. You guys already mentioned
it in the chat. I mean these favorites, Bills minus

(30:55):
the points, Colts minus the points, Patriots minus points, favorites
and overs. I believe I heard Teddy earlier say they
went sixteen and three. I hope I got that number right.
But it was a big, big public week. When you
get all these favorites, you get all these overs, it's
just going to be a big, big public week. So
this was a monster public week in the NFL. Let's
go to fantasy and prop winners and losers. If you've

(31:21):
been surviving with some of these injuries and these bye
weeks in fantasy, congratulations, there's been quite a few of them.
Let's go to uh Aronde Gadson. He's the big winner
here from the tight ends. Now the Chargers have this
four headed monster for receivers. Justin Herbert's going to be

(31:41):
a monster moving forward. Two in Jalen Waddle. It's like
outdoors Fadom indoors. Bet on them. Justin Fields and Breese
haall look great. Bresseehall maybe auditioning for another team. We'll
see if they keep him. Traveon Henderson. You figure this
one out. Against the Titans, he does nothing, and then
he has the big game against the bron or against
the Browns. Z Dan continues to impress even without AJ Brown.

(32:03):
He's still putting up big points. James Cook. If Jonathan
Taylor wasn't in the league or doing what he's doing,
people would be talking about James Cook like quietly. Two
hundred yards and a couple of touchdowns just day. Ted
McMillan just keeps putting up numbers. He's a sleeper in
the props market. Derrick Henry. They get healthy, they get
Picard back, he goes off, has a big game. Roma

(32:24):
Dunze continues to do well even though Kayleb Williams didn't
play well. CJ. Stroud looked fantastic. I'm kicking myself. That
was the one prop I didn't take was they had
the number at two hundred and two and a half
on the passing yards on Stroud. I didn't take it.
Big regrets there and then Colts everything is just a huge,
huge winner in the props market in fantasy football. Quintin
Johnston sneaky play. I would take him over next week.

(32:47):
He had no catches. They were just guarding him and
they were letting Lad McConkey and Arena Gatson go over
the middle and catch a bunch of passes. Look for
Johnson in next week's game to have a good comeback week.
Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. The Vikings cannot run the
ball at all. Bijon Robinson, that was the nuke in
the props market. I should have put that in where

(33:07):
the books won. Bijon Robinson was the biggest disaster. I
can't remember a bigger non injury disaster in the props
market than Bijon the Giants offense. Now that camp Scatter
was out, that's a disaster. And Rico Dowdell continues to
lose touches to Chewba Hubber, and I warned everybody about this.
The Panthers signed chub Hubber to do a contract. They're
gonna let Chewba like, even if he's not as good

(33:28):
or if he's a little banged up, he's gonna get work.
It's not gonna be one hundred percent Rico Dowdell. So
all right, those are your big winners and losers. Let's
bring in Steve Merrill. Steve, you're gonna break down a
couple of things for us, But let's start with firing coaches.
I just I don't I've never seen where this works,
where you just constantly are flying through coaches, where you're

(33:50):
paying high profile guys this big money, and then you
just keep it's rinse and repeat. Does everyone realize one
team wins the national Championship? Like I just I don't
get it. Can Is this the right thing to do?
Of course, I'm talking about Brian Kelly. I just think
these are massive overreactions and I just haven't seen it work.
What do you think?

Speaker 7 (34:08):
Yeah, I've been trying to find out today what my
buyout is at waterer talk dot com because of it's fifty.

Speaker 5 (34:13):
Four How do you suck us?

Speaker 4 (34:18):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (34:18):
I just yeah, I saw that.

Speaker 7 (34:20):
I was like, I actually made this point about two
months ago with not my Virginia Tech Hokies. The buyout
was like I think six million, or maybe I think
it was on like six I thought that was astronomical
two months ago because prinstance was having a terrible season.
I was like, how is this not a better life
choice for him to not have to do anything now
make like several million dollars after having it handed to you,

(34:41):
And then a few weeks later, who was it that
got fired? A couple weeks after that, it was another
big name Coche. Oh, I'm a man. He's no longer forty,
but he's still a man. Gundhy after like eighteen some
years at Oklahoma State, and then of course Kelly. By
the way, Andy, we've been on two of these teams
this year. We were on Oklahoma State I believe I
think it was Oklahoma State, and then we were on
LSU this weekend. So I'm the black cat, I guess

(35:01):
for these guys, or I'm the good luck fifty four
million to do absolutely nothing Now, I guess you have
to technically look for a job like once a year,
but bigger picture, it's the school's fault. And I said
this fifty years ago when they paid Kurt Flood a
lot of money, ten thousand bucks as a free agent
whatever it was.

Speaker 5 (35:17):
They've opened the floodgates.

Speaker 7 (35:18):
And you know, the reason all these athletes are paid
so much is because someone pays them that much. And
the same with the coaches. And it's like the Cleveland
Browns having twenty or thirty quarterbacks over a couple decades.
They're always constantly chasing their tail and trying to catch
lightning in a bottle. It's the same thing all the
bad NFL teams do, drafting quarterbacks, firing coaches instead of
trying to build things over a three or four year period.
I've always said in the NFL, if you gave me

(35:40):
five years, I knew it wasn't going to be fired.
I could build a championship team. The first thing I
would do is trade anybody decent for five or ten
more draft picks, like the Cowboys did back in the
late eighties. But everyone's always trying to catch lightning because
they know they'll be.

Speaker 5 (35:52):
Fired in a few years.

Speaker 7 (35:53):
It's the same thing with this carouself coaches, and it
also shows just how much ridiculous money these schools have
to spend. If you're okay, fire a guy knowing you
got to pay him fifty four million and pay the
new guy probably that same amount, then you're doing pretty well.

Speaker 1 (36:08):
Who's firing him? Aren't these the same people that hired.

Speaker 7 (36:12):
And that's a great point, Andy, because Virginia Tech inside
a friend of my Daniel Owens. He was wearing hashtag
shirts to fire the ad the week before the coach
is fired.

Speaker 5 (36:20):
But the ad is still there at Virginia Tech, right, And.

Speaker 7 (36:23):
Those are the guys you really got to get rid of,
in my opinion, because you're right, it's like, whoopsie, we'll
try again.

Speaker 5 (36:30):
It lights a spark in the the pro world.

Speaker 7 (36:32):
And you know that because you followed the pro sports
very closely, and we've always joked about that, you know,
play on a team in the NHL, the MLB, the
NBA after coaches fired, because they've always said, you can't
fire all the players, so you fire the coach to
try to like that spark. And I do think there's
something to that. But college is a different animal because
of the recruiting, the amount of players that roll over
every year and we'll see how it plays out. I

(36:53):
don't feel like Kelly was I don't think he was
a great coach there, but al sud necessarily don't think
it's going to change anything.

Speaker 1 (36:59):
Let's move on to Lamar Jackson. Oh yeah, oh yeah, Steve,
you want that job? Have fun with that.

Speaker 5 (37:04):
I mean, yes, I didn't see it.

Speaker 1 (37:05):
What's it say, you know, throwing your hat in the
ring for the LSU job just designed.

Speaker 7 (37:10):
To I will say this, like if I would do
it for three years to cash fifty four million, right,
and then we'd sit on our yacht in Drake. But
it's a tough job, the stress level, it's tough on families.
So I don't mind coaches getting paid a good chunk,
but once again, it's like the one percent to get
paid that you know, and it's like the grind for
these other guys. But I know head coaches, and you know,
it's tough when you've got kids and you're moving every

(37:32):
three or four years. It's kind of like the military.
But once again, we should not be paying guys. I
don't think anyone's worth that amount of money over five
or ten years, whatever the duration.

Speaker 1 (37:41):
Was let's move to Lamar Jackson. I guess I don't
even really understand what the controversy was. I, along with
everyone else, assumed he was going to play, but I
never heard the Ravens like come out and say no,
he's absolutely one playing, and then oops, we lied up it.
I don't know. I didn't think it was that big

(38:02):
of a deal. I think people were just more upset
that it happened, and so what can you do besides
get mad and then you want to play? Place blame somewhere.
I don't know. Was it that bad?

Speaker 5 (38:13):
Am?

Speaker 4 (38:13):
I am?

Speaker 1 (38:14):
I naive on this one.

Speaker 5 (38:16):
I wasn't happy.

Speaker 7 (38:17):
The play I put out earlier in the week was
Ravens Bears over forty nine to get ahead of the number,
and it went up to fifty to fifty and a half,
almost that key number fifty one. So I did the
right thing. I did my fade the public video late
Friday night to try to get all the injury information
at four o'clock Eastern on Friday. The Bears were a
very public dog. I said in the video, I liked
the Ravens minus seven. The video goes out Saturday afternoon.

(38:40):
Lamar's ruled out Saturday morning. Everyone's like, why didn't you
mention Lamars, Well, I've recorded the video before. That is
it's still a play over forty five after hundreds of
people had already gotten to play a few days earlier
at forty nine and a half. And the thing is,
I thought it was an overreaction. I still liked the
over at forty five, and I told people that I
actually kind.

Speaker 5 (38:58):
Of liked the Ravens more.

Speaker 7 (38:59):
But they want to double up since I already had
a bad number on the game and go with Baltimore
minus two and a half three, they covered the seven,
they won by fourteen. They land forty six, so it
goes over the forty five. Many of you still won
the game because you played at Sunday, so I'm glad
that happened, but it is extremely frustrating to miss out
on going to three and oh on Sunday and went
two and one instead. Hey, look, we're still number one

(39:21):
over the last year in NFL prop that we've had
a fantastic season this year, but it landed right in
the middle. And what was really frustrating me Andy was
I think there were five field goals inside the twenty
and I still missed even the bad number going over
by just a field goals, So it felt like we
had the right pick. There should have been three, and
Oh went two and one. Many people went three and Oh.
I wasn't mad about it. Otherwise, it's just felt a
little bit like NBA is. Isn't it ironic that it

(39:42):
happened like three days after the NBA season started, because
that's what we're going to deal with for the next
several months in pro basketball.

Speaker 1 (39:49):
Well, let's talk about the game tonight. Your Washington Commanders,
the Jade and Daniels Washington. There you go, the orange.

Speaker 5 (40:00):
It's the Halloween uniform for the Commanders.

Speaker 1 (40:02):
Squint your eyes and it's almost red. Yeah, chiefs, big
favorites here, all chiefs money. What's your preview with this game?

Speaker 4 (40:10):
Yeah?

Speaker 7 (40:10):
The line is actually dropping a little bit though, which
is interesting because we saw like eleven and a half.
I did a standalone video for this, by the way,
earlier in the week, So if you want a deep dive,
it's here on wager Talk TV. We do all the
Sunday and Monday night games. Gave you the Packers last night.
That turned out to be a best bet for my clients.
So I do give you some plays as best bets
for my clients. This one is not going to be
a best bet tonight, and it's not because it's not
my Washington commanders, but they are somewhat my commanders tonight.

Speaker 5 (40:33):
I just think this line is too high.

Speaker 7 (40:34):
And in general, I don't like to play teams and
then hope they cover, and that's kind of what we're
doing here. But once you get to this double digit range,
NFL teams can lose and cover once when it's said
or less, you really have to think your team is
going to win. Never play an NFL team less than
a touchdown dog unless you really honestly believe they're gonna
win the game outright. But when you get to this
double digit range, you can start taking a little bit

(40:55):
more of a chance. Plus, this line is just inflated,
and I've got the math proof it. The look aheadline
this summer was as low as three and a half
four and a half. The line a couple of weeks
ago was in that four and a half range, and
then when Daniels gets injured against the Cowboys, it shoots
up more than a touchdown. Now it's still in that
over eleven eleven and a half range. Now I'm seeing

(41:16):
some ten and a half. So I mentioned how it
is dropping a bit from when I did the video
a couple of days ago. The Commanders were eleven and
a half. Now they're eleven. We're even seeing a ten
and a half. But South Point, a very public book,
still has eleven and a half, where some of the
sharper books are the ones dropping first. So I think
there's actually a little bit of sharp money buyback here
on the Commanders tonight, and I agree with that move.
I just think this is an overreaction. Marcus Mariota is

(41:38):
not as good as Jayden Daniels. I get that, but
keep in mind when he played last year in that
first game seven in form, he had over seventy percent completions,
three touchdowns, and no interceptions. He is a capable veteran backup,
and Daniels doesn't play defense.

Speaker 5 (41:50):
The Commander's problem this year is a horrendous defensive team.

Speaker 7 (41:53):
So if they really are going to be a three
and a half to four and a half point dog
and now they're an eleven eleven and a half point dog,
nothing's changed defensively, And yes, I think the Chiefs can
move the ball in this game. But it's also perhaps
a letdown spot for Kansas City. And I know that
sounds strange to say, national TV spotlight Monday night football game.
How could it be a flat spot? Well, let's look
at the schedule. They played the Baltimore Ravens, a high

(42:15):
profile game, then they played a Monday night game after
that at Jacksonville game which they blew a fourteen to
nothing lead a play from the front backwards loss. Huge
game against the Detroit Lions six days later.

Speaker 5 (42:25):
On Sunday Night Football.

Speaker 7 (42:27):
We had a best bet on the Chiefs and that
also gave you that in the video a few weeks ago.
And then last week division rival Raiders, who they manhandled
thirty one to nothing, thirty to three first down edge.
It was one of the most dominant NFL performances I've
seen in recent years. Now it's a Monday night home game,
but oh looky here, guess who they have next week
at the Buffalo Bills next Sunday. This is not a

(42:47):
great setup here, and while I think the Chiefs probably
win the game, I don't see him winning by double digits.
This is an inflated line. If you're going to play
it tonight, hold your nose and play not My Way
to Second. Wait, play My Washington Commanders tonight plus eleven
or more today fifteen Eastern on ESPN and ABC.

Speaker 1 (43:04):
All right, Steve, we got Game three in the World
Series Series all tied up here. I had to laugh.
Somebody asks us after Game one, They're like, what do
you think of blue Jays to sweep? It's like that
that should have been and are we overreacting? Oh, that's
the Blue Jays to sleep. So we sures are going

(43:26):
for the Blue Jays. We got glass now going for
the Dodgers. Tell us your thoughts on World Series Game
three breakdown, and tell over them what you have up
over a wager.

Speaker 7 (43:33):
Talk, everybody thought the Blue Jays had it locked up
when they had that monster sixth then in and it
probably was they the by low point at that point
with the Dodgers. I actually did a standalone video here
on wager Talk TV before the series saying that I
like the Dodgers to win the series, but I was
a little bit worried about Game one because of the travel,
the home strong home field that Toronto has had this year,
the momentum coming in off of seven games and by

(43:55):
the way, very interesting stead I didn't point this out
in the video, but over the last like thirty some years,
teams that sweep the league championship series and play a
team that went seven and the other one or zero
to four, and they actually got swept in a few
of those. I don't think any of them at more
than five, maybe six games, So the Dodgers were kind
of up against it. In game one, we had the
over in that game, so that was an easy best bet,

(44:15):
and then we came back with the Dodgers for my
clients on Saturday in game two, another easy best bet winner,
because I thought it was a good.

Speaker 5 (44:21):
Spot for him.

Speaker 7 (44:21):
And I've been running for a huge Blue Jay Dodger
fan friend of mine, Justin Brisky, great American, but he's
a bigger Vin Scully fan. So I thought i'd do
a little Vin Scully impersonation as I break this game down.
And this is actually apparently a true story. Vin Scully said,
Saturday morning, early in my truck, a black cat crossed
him my one fifty yellow eyes.

Speaker 1 (44:39):
Bad luck.

Speaker 7 (44:40):
Then a moment later, I saw a Blue Jay and
I said to myself, the Dodgers can get over this.
Pile of bad luck. We're in pretty good shake to
win it all. I agree with Vin, the ghost of
Vin Scully the channel threw me there. I agree with him.
I think the Dodgers are on a roll now. They
switched this series around in game two, Game three back
at home. Now for the next three, keep in mind
it's a two to three two format. Do I boldly

(45:01):
say they win the next three and they get the
four to one? Perhaps? But I like them tonight. So
let's look at the best way to play this. Not
a fan of laying minus two dollars in baseball, it's
not something we do.

Speaker 5 (45:12):
We usually look at.

Speaker 7 (45:13):
Start playing the run line at that point and getting
that price down, and you can actually get the Dodgers
minus one and a half run line minus a dollar
ten and a pick them straight up win situation. And
by the way, something else the great Dave Cochin used
to point out on our baseball shows, if you don't
have access to a minus one run line, you can
create your own. And it's quite simple. Dodgers right now

(45:33):
are anywhere from minus two hundred to minus two to
ten run lines minus one ten. You put half a
unit on the run line, half of you know the
money line you're creating like a minus one fifty minus
one fifty minus one line, and that way, if it
isn't exactly one run game, you push instead of losing.
But however you want to slice it here. I like
the Dodgers for several reasons. I pointed out the momentum
I think they have now after the winning game two.

(45:55):
Game one is the only bad game of the postseason.
They're all for a full week head to travel to Toronto.
Blue Jays have been a much weaker road team this year.
In the regular season, they were one game below five
hundred on the road as opposed to a much stronger
home team. In fact, overall this season, if you even
factor in the playoff games, now I believe fifty nine
and thirty at home, forty three and forty three away,

(46:16):
that's sixteen and thirteen, that's thirty was a twenty nine
fourteen and a half games weaker on the road. Well,
the Dodgers have actually as good as the Dodgers are.
They won a great road team this either factor, and
in the postseason games just forty six and forty one
away fifty seven and thirty at home. So you have
two teams that are combined one hundred and sixteen and
sixty at home versus just eighty nine and eighty four

(46:37):
in the road. Dodgers, I don't want to say they
stole game too because they were favorite, but they're at
a pretty good spot here. I like them in the series.
I told you also, if they lost Game one, play
the adjusted series price, you probably have missed out on
that value now as it's.

Speaker 5 (46:50):
Back to where it was.

Speaker 7 (46:51):
Also like glass now in the Mountain Tonight three point
one to nine era this season, but he only threw
ninety pitches in the rail ninety innings in the regular season.
He threw one hundred and thirty four h to twenty
the two years before. So he is fresh and he
is an excellent current form. His last seven starts a
two point two ERA, going back to the end of August. Huh,
Max Schurzer, let's talk about Max. You see the Washington

(47:12):
National hats in the background, And by the way, I've
got a Dodger in a blue Jay hat buried back there,
and I keep forgetting to pull him out. If I dare,
everything will tumble here on live TV. But Scherzer is
a guy that won a championship with the Nationals my
Washington Nationals in twenty nineteen. He's had some great postseasons,
but he's over the hill. His numbers this year show it.
He only pitched eighty five innings five point two ERA,

(47:34):
and he's been even worse since late August. His last
seven starts a seven point nine ERA. He got lit
up in several of those. In fact, he's given up
four earned runs or more and five of those last
seven outings and he has not gone past five and
a half.

Speaker 5 (47:48):
Innings in any of them.

Speaker 7 (47:50):
This is a huge pitching matchup, home field advantage, better team,
and I think the momentum angle I like the La Dodgers.
He could play him straight up at minus two hundred
minus one and a half run line, or make that
minus one run line about a dollar fifty, however you
slice it. Tonight Dodgers go up to one and I
think they win this series as predicted. And if you'd
like to get my best bet videos each and every day,
check out this page wager talk dot com wager Talk TV,

(48:12):
and make sure you subscribe and click the bell. The
more thumbs up likes, the more positive comments below, the
more free play videos I will do. I've done every
college football game the last two weeks. Since we started
with these Tuesday, Wednesday Thursday night games, I've given you
all eighteen weeknight college football games. Now, most of those
don't make the best bet card their TV opinions for you.
I know you're doing your on handicapping, but some of

(48:32):
them do make the car because I also give you
the Thursday Night NFL game, Sunday Monday night Pro football games.
Thursday Night NFL by the way, eight and one this
year for free NFL Prime Thursday Night is cashing big
time eight and one. I'll have your Ravens Dolphins game.
We'll talk more about Lamar Jackson in that breakdown for
Thursday Night Football. So make sure you subscribe and you
click the bell as well for instant alerts when all

(48:52):
these videos go up this week here on wager Talk TV.
And don't forget if you want my personal best bets
right number one in the NFL the last three under
of sixty five day, nobody's won more units on best
bets two and one or three and zero, depending on
your line. Yesterday and that Raven's over monster NFL season.
College football pro basketball started this week. College hoop starts
tonight on Monday. Who World Series is still here? That

(49:13):
means this is the only time of the year that
you can get all five sports that I handicap at
one time, college and Pro football, College and Pro basketball,
and Major League Baseball all at once. So yeah, I
know what you're thinking. Not a bad time to get
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(49:35):
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Speaker 1 (49:51):
Steve Merrill Great Breakdowns. Can't wait to see your take
on the Ravens and the Dolphins. I think that's going
to be a fascinating game. It feels like those teams
whenever they play, it's always a circus.

Speaker 5 (50:03):
So I can't wait too But you know, Andy, essentially
real quick.

Speaker 7 (50:05):
I meant to mention this when we're talking about Lamar
is like, you got to wonder how that factor did
it with him? Is kind of scratching him because you know,
once again, the odds makers know as much, if not
more than anybody. They thought Lamar was playing, like you said,
because the line was seven forty nine and a half,
it plummets to two forty five, right, So it was
priced in like ninety nine percent of lamarvis playing on Friday.
But they had this quick turnaround and to the travel team,

(50:26):
which means it's really like a two day and then travel.
So well, we'll see what happens. But I think that
definitely played a factor with him not playing on with
I guess they thought was a winnable game. I mean
maybe they didn't respect the Bears and they were coming
off the bye week also, so I wonder how much
Cooper Rush really worked during the by you know, behind
closed doors.

Speaker 5 (50:42):
So we'll find out.

Speaker 1 (50:44):
All right, Steve Merrill, everyone, thank you so much for
joining us. Good luck on your plays. Mark Robbins asked,
how did your prop package do this weekend? Mark? We
did well six and four. Yesterday we didn't have any plays.
On Thursday. We went six and four. Best part about
yesterday was three of the plays were plus one fifty,
so we've already guaranteed ourselves profit for this week. But

(51:06):
we do have one best bet that is up tonight.
So if you missed out on all the plays yesterday,
we have one best bet that goes off tonight. We're
looking to make that seven and four. If you heard
me mention earlier, my goal is fifty eight percent for
this year. I believe after yesterday we're at fifty six percent.
Right around that fifty six fifty seven percent. So really
really happy with how it went. I actually love when
we don't go like nine and one or eight and two,

(51:28):
because that's not sustainable. Six and four, yeah, we can
keep doing those every single week. So really happy with
how that went. All right, let's talk about all around
the world. We'll go over some free plays and we
got a little bit of everything here. We'll go with
the game today. Here's a lean I had it just
missed a card. Marcus Mariota under eighteen and a half completions.

(51:48):
This is a Chiefs team that only allows nineteen completions
per game. They've dominated bad quarterbacks this season, and he
hasn't gone over in his last eight games where he
started or played big minutes. So I'm looking at Arioda
under his completions. We go to the NBA Wendell Carter
over eight and a half rebounds. It's a great spot.
He just missed out going over this in the first
two games where he landed on eight and eight. He

(52:10):
had thirteen. Last game, no mb'd tonight, seventy six ers
lacking size inside. I like him to go over this total.
And then Lakers versus Trailblazers. I really like Drew Holliday
over his assists. He's averaging thirteen potential assists per game.
He's gone over in all three games this season, and
Lakers are giving up one hundred and sixteen points per game.
So we're looking at Drew Holliday and these Trailblazers score

(52:33):
a lot of points against Lakers, and I expect him
to have quite a few assists. All right, Let's talk
a little bit about a marquee matchup tonight. We're talking
the Mavericks and the thunder line sits at minus eight
and a half at the time recording this for the
thunder over under his two to twenty six and a half,

(52:54):
it's a big Marquee game tonight, We're gonna see Cooper
Flagg going up against this Thunder team. The Thunder are
three and zero. The Mavericks lose their first two games
of the season, but they put up one hundred and
thirty nine in their last game and they beat the Raptors.
Thunder twenty seventh in pace, Dallas is seventh in pace,
So this is a Thunder team that's playing good defense,
not pushing the pace. That makes sense. They played a

(53:15):
couple double overtime games already. Cooper Flagg, it seems to
be gotten better each of the first three games. Dallas
is only nineteenth in defensive rating. They're gonna get better
the longer the season goes on. As long as Davis
is healthy, I expect this defensive mindset to get a
little bit better, but I think it's gonna take a
little bit of a time. The Thunder, if they just
picked up right where they left off, there has not

(53:35):
been a letdown. Their fifth and defensive rating, tenth in
offensive rating. They're just an absolute wagon and Dallas has
really only had one good offensive game. They dominated inside,
shooting fifty nine percent from the field, but that was
against Jaka Perl inside. Now they get to deal with Chet,
Holmgren and Hartenstein. This is gonna be a much much

(53:56):
different animal. And be honest, Anthony Davis, he just doesn't
quite look like the dominant Anthony Davis from years past.
Still looks good, but I think the youth is on
the side of the Thunder here in this one. Thunder
is still without Caruso. Chet is questionable, but it does
look like he will play. I don't like that the
MAVs have Cooper Flagg playing at point guard. I know

(54:18):
they're just trying to buy time until Kyrie gets back,
but I just don't think it's really what he does.
I don't think that's what his NBA skill set is,
and this is a nightmare matchup for him. It's one
thing bringing up the ball at the court against the
Toronto Raptors. It's different when you're bringing the ball of
the court against lou Dort and Shay and this Thunder defense.
I think the Thunder come out strong defensively. They put

(54:40):
a lot of pressure on Flag and the offense. I
think it's gonna cause mistakes, and the MAVs have not
been truly great on defense yet, so I want to
bet on the Thunder, but I'm gonna do it in
the first half at minus four and a half. The
Thunder are two and one this season in first half spreads,
the Mavericks are zero to three. They've not gotten off
to good starts, and I think Cooper Flagg is going
to be a little bit shocked when they see when

(55:02):
he sees how good this Thunder defense is. So give
me the Thunder on the first half spread minus four
and a half. Our Monday Night Football best bet is
on the board six and four this week. We were
six and four last week. We've been very good on
primetime games. We've gone thirteen and four this season. We're
aiming to hit fifty eight percent. So if you did
not lock in the week worth of props, no big deal.

(55:24):
We have our best bet that is up tonight, looking
to move to fourteen and four in primetime games. We
also have our NBA best bet that is up. We
absolutely crushed NBA props last season. It was by far
our best season. We were over thirty units in profit.
Really proud of that, and we look to have another
big season. You can join us for our NBA best
bet tonight. All right, guys, Thank you so much for

(55:46):
joining us. Shout out to you mister Walton just joined
us here as a wager Talk insider. If you guys
want to join his insider WT buzz slash insider get
all kinds of perks and Moji's fun things like that.
So you want to sign up up and join the
wager Talk family, encourage you to do that. You know,
we talked about how many people are subscribed to the
wager Talk channel, and I think Teddy put it best.

(56:07):
We're like quarter of a million. That sounds so much
more than like two hundred and twenty five thousand. So yeah,
if you haven't subscribed, please do that, and uh don't
forget to leave a comment tell us what your best
bet is for Tonight was a great show. Thank you
guys for joining us. Special shout out to Yanni crack
Man and Steve Merrill for joining me today. We're going
to be back same time tomorrow noon Eastern time. Good

(56:28):
luck on your bet tonight. Let's have a big Monday
and we'll see tomorrow. Take care