WagerTalk Today | Monday Best Bets! | MNF, NBA and College Basketball | 11/24

On Monday's edition of WagerTalk Today, Steve Merril previews tonight's NFL Week 12 finale in the Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers Monday Night Football matchup and takes a look at CBB Action between St. John's vs Iowa State and Cavaliers vs Raptors in NBA. Bill Krackomberger joins the show to talk the latest in the sports betting industry and give his favorite prop for NBA Monday Action. Andy Lang reacts to Sunday's NFL action, provides props and shares free picks and Gianni The Greek gives daily betting advice – don't miss out!

Intro 00:00
Gianni The Greek Steam Report 1:35
College Basketball Steam 1:48
NBA Steam 3:13
NFL Steam 4:45
Thanksgiving NFL Steam 11:20
NFL Week 12 Questions 16:45
Where the Books won/Where the Public won 18:45
NFL Props Winners & Losers 19:02
Bill Krackomberger 22:00
NBA Prop 32:20
Steve Merril 41:40
MNF: Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers 42:39
NBA: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors 45:55
CBB: St. John's Red Storm vs Iowa State Cyclones 49:32
Andy Lang All Around the Word Free Picks (NFL & NBA Props) 53:03
NBA: Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies 54:23

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Waye You Talk Today, the Golden Stata of
sports betting shows where we talked the talk and walk
the walk. It's Monday, a loaded lineup to kick off
Thanksgiving week. Yanni the Greek's gonna start us off with
Steam Report, Crackman's gonna drop an NBA prop, give us
some thoughts on Monday Night football, and Steve Merrill busy Man.
Today we're gonna preview Panthers forty nine ers, also gonna
take a look at the NBA Calvs and Raptors, and

(00:23):
then college basketball Saint John's versus Iowa Stope, Iowa State.
Hope everyone had a really good weekend. No time to waste.
Let's bring in Yanni and so we got cooking this week. Indeed, Yanni,
Thanksgiving cooking.

Speaker 2 (00:37):
Okay, all right, one of the best weeks. Doesn't get
better than this, bro doesn't get Honestly, like, I've been
here now for thirty years in Vegas and still March Madness,
that first Thursday, Super Bowl Day, in the day before
and then Thanksgiving. Those four days are still among my
best that I look forward to. When it comes to

(00:59):
likes like that, I enjoy it, not just the job
just because it's everybody's all from work. You have all
those prime time standalone TV games. People are just betting,
so it's like a different markets. It's awesome.

Speaker 1 (01:13):
I love it.

Speaker 2 (01:14):
It's like Sunday afternoon football NFL market, but over four days.
So yeah, a lot of opportunity to make money.

Speaker 1 (01:22):
All right, Well, let's get into it. Let's talk some
steam Report. If guys please hit the like button really
helps us out. Let's go to Let's start with college basketball.
You said you actually have quite a bit of college
basketball today, so let's start there and get things started.

Speaker 2 (01:36):
Yeah, and I think I already gave out ten moves
in the steam sheet today, and that makes my life
so much easier because two premiums already released the subscribers.
But I get so much information. It's good to be
able to use it. Like this one just came in now, Liberty,
and I liked Liberty today. That's an early game again Vermont.
So we're laying the eight on Liberty that was already

(01:57):
in the steam sheet. Wow, so okay, they're coming back
with Liberty. Here's some of the college foot basketball eight
oh two UAB minus two to two and a half
eight eighteen Arkansas State minus two and a half and
three eight twenty Northern Arizona plus the three eight twenty
eight Arizona minus thirty one and thirty two. You just
got that liberty play. Now what else can I give you?

(02:19):
Eight thirty Toledo plus the four, eight seventy one, Seaton
Hall plus ten and a half, eight sixty one Houston
minus thirteen and a half, eight sixty four Oregon plus
the four, eight fifty two Akron minus the one, and
eighteen thirty three Rhode Island minus the one in the
first half. I know there's some early games going off

(02:41):
today as well that we got down on. So college
basketball all day today and those that are checking the
steam sheet, I think it's free for everyone this week,
so you get updates. We'll probably have a couple. I
won't make you go crazy with NonStop up We should
get more college basketball throughout the day.

Speaker 1 (02:58):
All right, let's take a look. We're talking basketball. Got
a really good slate of NBA games as well. I
see see maybe some totals on some move on totals here,
but what are you seeing on your end?

Speaker 2 (03:11):
All right? The one total that we hit was the
Houston Phoenix total game five fifteen under two twenty seven
through two twenty five. That was up there early on
that steam sheet too. Some of these got away from us.
Here's the sides five oh one Detroit minus eight and
a half, nine, nine and a half and ten. I
had to keep up dating that five oh nine Denver

(03:32):
minus seven, seven and a half and eight, five point fifteen,
Houston minus six, five seventeen Minnesota minus eight and a
half and nine, and then five twenty Utah minus fourteen. Well,
you noticed they're all favorites. The key do they come
back on the dogs? We know recreational betters ten the

(03:53):
bet favorites, we know they didn't have the best week
last week. They're kind of chasing heading into the holiday weekend.
Rest assured favorites are gonna be jacked up a little bit.
That's what we're looking at. But the key is are
they going to come back and take the dogs a
little bit later? Are somebody's gonna be set up for
middles or legit moves later?

Speaker 1 (04:15):
John wants to know where is the steam sheet found?
Can you point people to that?

Speaker 2 (04:20):
Yanni, Yeah, if you go to my page on wager
talk dot com, should be up and available for you guys.
I know it's up there because I know we already
we gave the I have one four percent today in
college basketball, and that's being given in the steam sheet
for free, and then all that stuff that I keep adding.

Speaker 1 (04:41):
Let's go to football. We've got NFL tonight, We've got
multiple games on Thursday, so I'm sure money has started
to move in. Let's talk about the game tonight. Are
you seeing anything? You see a huge move on the
total from where it opened to where it is now.

Speaker 2 (04:56):
Yeah, and I'm surprised the side hasn't really been jacked
up yet, especially for teaser protection. Kind of tells you
there is some Carolina money that's holding it back because
they got to have a lot of exposure on San
Francisco just in parlays for money lines and even from teasers,

(05:16):
because let's not forget the Rams were a popular signed
on Sunday Night football. They got there against the spread,
they got there on the teaser, they got there on
the money line parlays, and I think a lot of
them are tied into San Francisco against Carolina. And listen,
San Francisco is an elite team. That's the bottom line.

(05:37):
You're looking at the question is is Carolina have anything
to play for? Because with San Francisco, they're a top
five strength of schedule team. Their offense is top ten,
their defense is just out of the top ten. So
considering they have a top five strength of schedule, their
stats are really good. They're legit seven to fourteen. Flip side,
I look at Carolina, They've had a barely a top

(06:02):
ten I mean a top twenty strength of schedule, barely
in the top twenty, and yet there's only four teams
worse than them offensively, five teams worse than them defensively
efficiency wise, So obviously it's an elite team like San
Francisco against a week team like Carolina who has six

(06:23):
wins and five losses. Like how they have six wins
is beyond me considering their stats. But they continue to
get covers. I mean they're seven and four ats. You
made more money betting Carolina than San Francisco, and that's
where the spread becomes the great equalizer. Will they be
able to keep it close? Because you look, the last
four times they were dogs, they got the money, and

(06:45):
not only did they get the money, they won outright,
So it's a scary dog to fade in Carolina, but
you have the recency buys to San Francisco coming off
scoring forty plus points last week and a big game
for them, division rival our own up beating them by
three touchdowns. Tough game because again the superior team is

(07:06):
obviously San Francisco, but once you get up over a touchdown,
you have to have some conviction that they're gonna be
able to blow them out. The total seems to have
moved a little bit too high now if you're chasing
that over, probably should have got involved a little bit
earlier in the week, because, like you mentioned, it just
continues to go up. And some of that has to

(07:27):
do with recency bias, and the rest of it has
to do with With San Francisco, the weakness is the
defensive side of the ball, at least that's where they're weaker,
and with Carolina they're weak on both sides of the ball.
But that offense may have a little more success this week.
So I do think the market expects points, and so
far we haven't seen resistance from the wise guys, Like

(07:48):
even at fifty and a half that I did see
some credit shops go to I didn't see any biting
on the under. That'll be interesting to see if the
sharps come in and take any of that on there.
I know they went over early, but at a much
different number.

Speaker 1 (08:08):
Question Andrew was curious about this Michigan Ohio State move.
Are you seeing anything? Probably pretty early in the week.
I know you always say that most of the time,
this money kind of comes in closer. Do you see
anything for Ohio State Michigan?

Speaker 3 (08:24):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (08:24):
What a game? Right?

Speaker 2 (08:25):
You see if I see anything else come in early?
I didn't see much at all. No, it's like you
touched on. It's really early. I don't even see that game.
Is that Friday or Saturday?

Speaker 1 (08:39):
Saturday? Saturday November twenty nights. So yeah, we were just curious.
But yeah, this early in the week, you're probably not
going to get confirmation or get anything.

Speaker 2 (08:49):
No, I mean ten and a half like got taken out,
but then nine and a half got taken out, So
it seems like they settled that the line should be ten.
Like anyone at nine and a half? Is that juiced
minus one? P fifteen. But you do see some of
the square shops at ten and a half, so obviously
they're expecting the public to beat on Ohio State, and

(09:10):
why wouldn't they best team in the country continue not
just to win, but cover games, which is almost impossible
to do. When you're the number one team in the country.
You're not supposed to be that good. Ats the books
should be able to protect themselves against that, and they
haven't been able to. So I think this is one
of those cases where if you're liking Ohio State, brother,
do not wait because unless the Bettingston gets line up

(09:32):
and steam Michigan, which they have no reason to do
so early in the week, when you're seeing the line
moving in the direction of Ohio State, I would get
down on Ohio State now, or I would wait a
little bit on the Michigan side.

Speaker 1 (09:46):
All right, You mentioned Thanksgiving and just how awesome it is.
Any are there are there any trends or anything that
we know from from Thanksgiving games that you try and
follow each year or is it just new Year? It's
always something different for me.

Speaker 2 (09:59):
It's year to year. Honestly, I'm not a big trend guy. Again,
I don't knock it anyone making money on with trends,
God bless you keep doing it. I just feel like
I could find a trend for anything like if I
add enough factors, I could find one hundred percent trend.
The question I always ask what a trend is is

(10:19):
there a fundamental reason why that trend should continue? Like
if you tell me that the Phillies are eight to
oh when a day game with a starting pitcher whose
last name starts with a P and the first baseman
is right handed that day like that, there's no fundamental
reason that trend should continue, that it should get the

(10:40):
ten and oh. But tell me that this team hits
left handers and that year they're hitting left these better,
then that's a trend I could pay attention to, you
know what I mean. So to me, it comes down
to the trend. And I'm not a big, big trend guy.
I don't have that kind of memory. Unfortunately, like game By,
they all mix up. For me, I look at him
each individually.

Speaker 1 (11:03):
What are we seeing with some of the We've got
so we got Green Bay, Detroit, we've got kids of
city down since Inny Baltimore, Yeah, yeah, I see the
line is dropped on on Baltimore. Probably the news with
Joe Burrow. Plus fact Baltimore hasn't looked back great covering
these big numbers. What are we seeing this early in
the week.

Speaker 2 (11:22):
Lions, Lions, Lions. The public's already betting the Detroit Lions,
and yet you could get them at minus three plus
one oh five or minus two and a half minus
two and a half. So that's a little bit uh
interesting this early in the week, uh seeing that even

(11:43):
though the public, again they're not heavy public money this early,
but that tells me they're tying in this Monday night
game with Thursday's action already. So I'm sure you're getting
tonight the favorite teased or the favorite Parlaid money line
with Detroit. And that's why I'm starting to see the

(12:03):
Detroit risk because I just looked in the back end
of a book I have access to, and their risk
is already piling up, Like they have zero risk right
now in Green Bay, but they have risk on Detroit.
So it's got to be Parlay's teasers tied into uh
Thursday from tonight, and that's not surprising that they're going
to bet Detroit. Dallas and Kansas City, Believe it or not,

(12:26):
I think Dallas will get some money at home, especially
the way they came back yesterday against Philadelphia. Against Dallas
at home Thanksgiving Day and the Chiefs, you know they
they've been beatable this year for sure. Baltimore, like you
touched on, that's going to be an ugly game. That
late game probably end up a little more moneyline action

(12:47):
on Baltimore. But it's the question marks with that team
I think is the problem. But no, no, no questions asked.
The books are going to need Green Bay to cover
that game early or else there'll be a lot of
live parlays and teas into the two later games.

Speaker 1 (13:03):
All right, Uh, I think that Brow wants to know
what tools do you use to research a game? My gosh,
there's a million tools out there, Yanni, you want to
tackle that one for me.

Speaker 2 (13:17):
I start with the power ratings that I use. That
starts everything for me in all sports, so that I
try to create a number before I even look so
I'm not biased. That's rule number one, and every handicapper
should do that. If you're handicapping your own stuff, you
should never look at the price before you create your
own number. It's like going in the buy a car.

(13:38):
You're not going to go into a dealership without having
an idea of what the car should cost. Because he
could throw a price at you you don't know are
you getting low balled or not. But if you go
in knowing this should be twenty five thousand and they're
asking thirty, then it's too much. Same thing with betting.
If you look up at the board and teammates the
favorite bias Wise, we already assume teammates the favorite. But
if you draw your own numbers before looking up at

(14:01):
the screen, and you're like, wait, I have team B
is the favorite, and you look up and teammate is
the favorite, all of a sudden, you have yourself a
nice bet to place. So that's one of the tools
that I think everyone needs to use because you could
create them yourself. You don't need like any kind of
expenses to do it, just need a lot of practice.
So create your own numbers. That would be my first advice.

Speaker 1 (14:25):
All right, what do you have up for everybody on Monday?
Kick us off right now?

Speaker 2 (14:28):
The free steam sheet. The free Steam sheet, And that's it,
because I'm waiting for my confirmation on the primetime games.
Like I talked about yesterday's Steam Room, it's just work
bro for whatever reason. Now, I think like fourteen and four,
fourteen and five in the Monday Night Football Sunday Night
Football over the last how many weeks, and I have
strong wings again, just waiting to see if I get

(14:50):
that confirmation then that package will be up. Otherwise, I
fired a couple premiums that are in there for subscribers
and getting ready for football for this week ahead. So
those packages will be up today or tomorrow at the
latest for you guys.

Speaker 1 (15:06):
All right, Yannie, thank you so much. Big week guys
ahead of us. Yanni the Greek getting us started with
the Steam report. Yes we are doing a show on Friday.
No show on Thanksgiving, but yes we will be will
be doing a show I'll be hosting. I hope it
goes well. I will be out of town so as
we all know, I'm going to be at the Mercy
of the Wi Fi so but hopefully hopefully will be

(15:30):
good to go on Friday. So a big night of plays, guys.
I have my Monday Night Football pack that is up.
One best bet in NFL, and I went ahead and
attached as a bonus to NBA props to that. Since
we only have one prop in NFL and then the
two NBA plays I love. That's actually gonna turn out
to be a really nice pack, because I think I'm
at an NHL prop to that as well. So primetime

(15:53):
games for whatever reason, I've worked out great this year
twenty and eleven primetime games when we just do one
bet on Monday night football, So partner up with us.
Let's cash on that one. Sadly lost a big play
yesterday in NFL full disclosure, we'll tell you when we win.
When we lose Zach charbonnay to go over his rushing
yards and then Seattle beat Tennessee so bad they only

(16:16):
held the ball twenty two minutes. It was gross season
Zwe carries for him and he was averaging five point
eight yards of carry. He just needed one more carry
and he would have got there. But nice thing about that,
there's always tomorrow, and that starts tonight. So join up
with me. We got one NFL and two NBA props
as a bonus, and probably we're gonna add an NHL
as well. All right, let's do some questions the NFL

(16:41):
Week twelve, and we've got a bonus non NFL. Do
we need Thursday night football? I was going back and
looking at Thursday football. If such weird results, these teams
are beat up. I mean, I don't know if we
I don't know this Thursday night football thing. I don't
know if this is just a failed experiment. But sometimes

(17:01):
the games aren't real good. It's not a real true
indication of what the teams are. I don't know. Maybe
some people love, but I guess my question is do
we need Thursday night football? Next question? How many people
knew Teddy Bridgewater was still in the NFL? I did not.
That was that was new to me. So how much
trouble are the Patriots in big time losses to that

(17:21):
offensive line? Waiting to see how how bad the injuries are.
But I'm worried about the Patriots now they lost. Basically
they're left the left side of their offensive line, so
that is that's that's big trouble. Next question, who's the
number one wide receiver for Dallas?

Speaker 3 (17:39):
Mean?

Speaker 1 (17:39):
Dan Pickens looked like a world beater against your team,
and Ceedee Lamb just continues to drop the ball, by
the way, shout out to those guys. So Ceedee Lamb
apparently missed curfew when he was in Vegas, and then
Pickens missed the bus. That's why they got benched. So
I'm sure the coaching staff was like, awesome, we get
these guys. Next question, is it our prey over? For

(18:00):
JJ McCarthy, it's not getting better. For JJ McCarthy, it's
actually getting way way worse. So I don't know what
the solution is, but when you're regressing as the season
goes on, that's not good. So and then finally, what
is going on with Brett the Hitman Heart. If you
did not see what Brett the Hitman Heart said, then

(18:23):
just look it up. Anybody that's a wrestling fan and
knows Brett will be will be stunned. And if you
know what he said, shout out to you in the chat.
Let's do where the public one and where the books won?
Where the books won? These big faves were just disastrous.
Ravens did not cover Lions, did not cover Seahawks, did

(18:43):
not cover Your Money Lines did but those spreads the
books absolutely feasted. Where did the public win? Everyone was
on Baltimore Under and the packers did get that cover,
so that's where the public won. But other than that,
it was pretty big week for the books. Let's dos
and fantasy football winners and losers. Not a long list here,

(19:05):
but I'll tell you Caleb Williams. He keeps getting it
done and if you have him on fantasy, he's been
a really really nice starter for everybody. And Dj Moore
looked good yesterday as well. Hunter Henry with the huge game,
so did Wandel Robinson and Jamiir Gibbs. Holy I believe
I said that was a top three Fantasy performance for

(19:26):
a running back. So Jamiir Gibbs has the huge game.
Manuel Wilson took over the lead role for Green Bay.
He didn't have like huge chunks, but he just kept
going at it and going at it and going at it,
ends up with a really nice stat game. Rashid Rice
is looking fantastic for the Chiefs and Michael Wilson. I
don't know what that team's gonna do when Kyler Murray's

(19:48):
ready to come back, and so is Marvin Harrison. But
Michael Wilson's been absolute stud, absolutely stud so props and
fantasy football losers. DeAndre Swift he may have lost that
job in Chicago fumbles. Then Kyle Manongui gets going, so
he may have lost that job. Everybody in the Vikings
we talked, we were terrified of what's gonna happen with
Justin Jefferson with his numbers and it's it's not looking good.

(20:10):
Jonathan Taylor bottled up by the Chiefs. They did a
really good job. And Lamar Jackson, who is clearly not
healthy dating he's under on rushing props, has been really good.
And then we talked about Ceede Lamb. Too many drop
balls for Ceedee Lamb. Pickens caught nine catches on all
nine of his targets. So all right, those are your
props and Fantasy football winners and losers. And yes, I'm

(20:34):
talking about what he said about Shawn Michaels and Vince McMahon. Yikes.
All right, let's bring in Bill crack Man. Bill, were
you a wrestling guy?

Speaker 3 (20:45):
Hey, good morning?

Speaker 1 (20:48):
Were you wrestling guy?

Speaker 3 (20:50):
When I was a kid.

Speaker 4 (20:51):
Back in New York and New Jersey, there used to
be Channel nine used to have wrestling at midnight. This
is you know, literally fifty years of all them, fifty seven
so literally, and it was Bob Becklin was the champion
for like a decade straight. Yeah, yes, it was fun though,
I actually I actually enjoyed it when I was a kid,
but uh, I quickly grew out of it in my

(21:13):
teens and that was it. But however, I did go
see when I was in Tampa a couple of years back,
and it was so nice. Brett Hitman Heart was the
first guy that you know, it was the it was.
It was in VIP event at the hard Rock in Tampa,
and I didn't know where, I know the name, I
know who he was, but he was very nice.

Speaker 3 (21:34):
And the two.

Speaker 4 (21:35):
Guys were Rick Flair and Hulk Hogan. That uh, it
was great. It was a one on one. You got
to go in and like for like sixty seconds, take
photos with them, talk to them both and really nice guys.

Speaker 3 (21:47):
Uh, great photos with them guys.

Speaker 4 (21:49):
And they gave him an hour talk after to the audience,
and Rick Flair just got over the sickness.

Speaker 3 (21:56):
He was really sick.

Speaker 4 (21:57):
He almost died and it was his first show and
he told about how Hogan saved his life and how
uk Hogan loan the money and it was just it
was really cool and and those guys were so real.
They were just so so nice. And I was upset
when Hogan died.

Speaker 1 (22:15):
And uh, what a story.

Speaker 3 (22:18):
I was upset.

Speaker 4 (22:20):
Yeah, I have I have some great photos of those guys,
and that was a memorable night. They were my brother
was into wrestling more than me, so so he he was.

Speaker 3 (22:30):
He was so happy to see those guys, you know,
and yeah it was nice. You know.

Speaker 4 (22:35):
Uh, wrestlers are nice. Certain people are, like certain sports.
The athletes are really nice. Boxers so nice, boxing guys
are so compare them to like some of these NBA thugs.
I mean, I'm you know, I'm I'm unfiltered. That's the
way I call it.

Speaker 3 (22:52):
Like it is. Some of these guys are just total
animals to the fans.

Speaker 4 (22:57):
But yet, like I was just with Larry Home and
Michael Moore was three.

Speaker 3 (23:02):
Of them, Michael Moore, Larry Holmes, gott.

Speaker 4 (23:06):
And and then and they were nicest can be. I
was just just with him at a charity event. So nice,
such good guys and always every single year. Woman seeing
I was talking to him, I was, uh, and and uh,
there's just so many guys. Thomas Hitman, hearns, I can't
go on. And I told you, Larry Holmes, Oh, Sugar,

(23:27):
Ray Leonard, how can I only fuck I figure Sugarray, Leonard,
Sugar Ray Leonard, just regular great guys talk to the fans,
Unlike like.

Speaker 3 (23:35):
I said, the the NBA clowns. That's that's the way
I feel.

Speaker 4 (23:39):
And I'm not saying all of them, but my experience
has been most of them, so it is what it is.

Speaker 1 (23:45):
Yeah, back back when I was in hospitality, I dealt
with basically every single NBA team, and it was it
was all or nothing. They were the nicest guy in
the world, or the you didn't want to you didn't
want to be around him. Like I would say, Dirk
Nowitzki was one of the nicest guys I ever met.
He was Oh, he was Oh he was a gem.
He was Yeah, he was absolutely fantastic. So I won't

(24:07):
tell the stories about the I will tell the negative stories.
We'll try and keep it positive on the show here.
So let's uh, how was how was your weekend?

Speaker 4 (24:16):
Bill?

Speaker 3 (24:16):
What?

Speaker 1 (24:17):
Uh? What'd you do?

Speaker 3 (24:18):
There? You go there? You go pretty cool?

Speaker 1 (24:24):
Gosh, they were kidding.

Speaker 4 (24:28):
They were They were so nice to these guys. My
guy I found the photo. They were so and you know,
I have to admit it, I didn't know. I didn't
even get a photo with him. I didn't know who
heart was. But he was like their manager, I guess
at one time.

Speaker 3 (24:41):
Or yeah, that was pretty cool. My brother was with him.
That that's hard right.

Speaker 1 (24:47):
That is that. Ye, that's Jimmy Mouth. That's Jimmy Mouth
of the South. And I've met and worked with Jimmy
Mouth the South and he is one of the nicest
guys I've ever interacted with. They were so nice and
it's not really a persona. He does talk as much
off outside the ring as he does when he's inside

(25:08):
the ring. It was just non stop. He was he
was wild man, he was. He was so cool. It
was uh and Mike.

Speaker 4 (25:16):
Awesome like that. I love stuff like that. Just great guys,
great guys. Ultimate Warrior, I remember him, all.

Speaker 3 (25:22):
Right, Mike.

Speaker 1 (25:23):
Yeah, I did a Uh, I did a show for somebody.
And his payment, they gave me an autograph the very
first version of the Ultimate Warrior comic book. I've got
it somewhere, I got I Got a Warrior. Yeah. It's
so cool, so cool.

Speaker 3 (25:35):
So yeah.

Speaker 4 (25:36):
So last week, yeah good, good week plus seven point
one units rolling along again. There's a rating service that
tries to rate tries to rate us, and they I
always tell him they get it so wrong because they
don't they just don't go by the proper rating system.
You know.

Speaker 3 (25:52):
I tell all my clients, you.

Speaker 4 (25:54):
Know that maybe you go one unit on an NBA
or I don't do NBA sides, an NFL side, but
you're going through to four units on a college basketball game.
You're going two and a half units on an NFL prop.

Speaker 3 (26:06):
Like you have to bet. You have to bet the
units properly.

Speaker 4 (26:10):
You can't be betting the same amount of money on
an NBA or an NFL side that you are an
NFL prop or better yet, a college basketball game.

Speaker 3 (26:19):
So but if you're going by what I tell yous
to do.

Speaker 4 (26:23):
Absolutely last year, last week, I'm sorry, college basketball fourteen
and eleven, NFL seven and four, that prop unit wise
it's plus point plus seven point one units. And you know,
I always tell people you have to go by unit size.

Speaker 3 (26:38):
But there's a there's a there's a you.

Speaker 4 (26:40):
Know, a service that all they do is try to
make everyone look bad and ruin people's lives and affect
their pocketbook, and they just don't know how to rate
the stuff. And it's, you know what I tell like,
but they wouldn't know, you know, they wouldn't know because
unless they're told, and they are told, but they still
want to just try to make people look bad under
anonymity of course.

Speaker 3 (27:02):
But anyway.

Speaker 4 (27:05):
You know again, like I said, it's just I'm going
to win because I'm betting stuff that's smaller market and
NFL props compared to NFL sides. They put a lot
of props out. I'm killing it on the season, killing
it on an NBA props, destroying it, NFL props, winning,
college basketball winning, That's what I do. And this is

(27:28):
my wheelhouse time of the year now. So college basketball,
NFL props, are you kidding me? NBA props all together
in the same week. Oh God, bombs over Tokyo. The
books have no chance, no chance in the long term.

Speaker 3 (27:42):
They have no chance.

Speaker 4 (27:43):
It's the reason why I've been thrown out of many
legalized sports books, stations, Caesars boy. I can go on
and on and on this treasure Island. The big sports
books of course, the Fandols and DraftKings limited the pennies
and which is basically thrown out, and local guys forget it.

(28:04):
I don't even want them anymore. I don't even want them.
I can't even over the years. This is going on
thirty years now for local guys. So you understand, they
just don't like anyone with a pulse. So and the
per head shops that that that run the sports books
in Costa Rica and Panama, on Antigua, they run the

(28:25):
sites for the people. So people, as you guys know,
you probably have some local guys. And what happens with
local guys is they're not sitting there like the old days,
picking up the phone and writing tickets and saying all right,
what do you want?

Speaker 3 (28:37):
Okay, you want this? All right?

Speaker 4 (28:38):
One hundred game, two hundred, this game, writing them down.
They just go to a per head shop. Well short,
they're giving them five bucks per player per week to write.

Speaker 3 (28:47):
The business for them.

Speaker 4 (28:48):
And literally all they have to do is check on
the account and say and see the action they have
and just do the P and H on sr P
and C. They do the payments and pay and collect
every week. But those type of guys, those type of
guys are the guys that I'm getting that I was
getting thrown out with for years. I literally don't even
I don't even mess with him anymore. I'm I'm very

(29:11):
happy doing what I do with media, doing what I
do here on Wager Talk Fox, many different media sources
and UH and bet bet the local casinos that allow me.
I'm getting down some good money, though, I can get down.
I can get down two thousand at circa thousand at
Westgate fifteen hundred, I bet MGM. I can get down
like five hundred, five thousand dollars a prop on basketball

(29:35):
and and and NFL props. So I'm happy with that
and done dealing with the local guys that just uh,
they don't pay winners, they don't like winters. So I've
been stiffed out of a lot of money in my life,
a lot, and I'm just done doing it.

Speaker 3 (29:51):
I'm done doing it. I'm done doing it. You know,
you do the.

Speaker 4 (29:53):
Work, You have partners, you deal with, and they're you know, yeah,
you have to pay the partners. You have to make
sure that they get paid. And I'm not getting paid
from certain sources. So and you know, uh, you know, listen,
we all have a rabbi to go to. But that's
not it's twenty twenty six year, you know, you know,
and we're not going after people, and.

Speaker 3 (30:14):
That's not the way it is.

Speaker 4 (30:16):
Uh today, I'm not trying to go off like a
tough guy, but I mean there's cameras on every corner,
cameras here, camera.

Speaker 3 (30:22):
They forget about it. You can't. There's there's nothing like imagine.
It's the opposite. It's actually the opposite that makes me laugh.
It makes me ef and laugh. It's the opposite of
what's supposed to be.

Speaker 4 (30:33):
It's supposed to be the book makers and the agents
going after players that don't pay. It's the opposite, though,
it's the opposite. It's the book makers that don't pay.
It's the book makers. It's it's it's it really is.
It makes me want to curse. It's a joke, it
really is.

Speaker 1 (30:47):
Let's let's talk a little NBA. I want to get
a want to get a prop that you like. But
do you focus on the same and similar teams, like
like similar players. I mean I like to try and
play the same guys and the same props over and over.
Train that's a nice streak, try and get five and
two type of streak. So I had I had, I
had the dreaded uh at a guy over rebounds and
he had three thousand and five minutes. It's like, well,

(31:10):
that one's dead man. So he sat the rest of
the half and then lost by the hook. But yeah,
what guys, have you been seeing some success with recently?

Speaker 4 (31:18):
No, you're right, you're right, it is good to to uh.
But you know, until I made maybe the public knows
a little bit more. It is good to pound the
same players if you see him going in one direction
out again. I heard Gianni say it. Man, he is
so spot on, I have to be blunts. I knew
who Gianni was, but until I joined wager Talk, I

(31:41):
didn't know how astute he was.

Speaker 3 (31:43):
I didn't know how.

Speaker 4 (31:44):
He knows so many things about so many things in
this game.

Speaker 3 (31:48):
He's been around. He's been around this uh, this, this
this game.

Speaker 4 (31:52):
Like I just said about the local guys and stuff,
he's been around for a long time. That like trends,
you don't want to just go off a trend NBA
prop trend. Oh this guy went under on his points
and rebounds the last two games. I don't know.

Speaker 3 (32:05):
I'm want to do that. No, because the book knows
that too. They're gonna adjust or even over adjust. So yeah, no,
it he is.

Speaker 1 (32:13):
He is.

Speaker 4 (32:14):
He is spot on, spot on about that stuff. So
I do have one for you. I just want to
go to the website to make sure it's I put
it up an hour ago and make sure it's the
same line here and Anyway, it's a Derek Queen points
and assist over twenty ye all right over twenty and
a half minus one thirty over twenty and a half
minus one thirty.

Speaker 3 (32:34):
Going with the rookie here, who's been hot? He's been.

Speaker 4 (32:37):
He's been hot betting thirty you know, literally he's been.
He's been getting thirty plus minutes. And I bet him
a couple of times. So just talking about a certain
player here you go. So he's been thirty plus minutes
his last three games. A great spot for Queen against
the Bulls, who they have. They literally rank last in

(33:00):
paint defense where they already does most of his work.

Speaker 3 (33:03):
Plus his total is really high. It was like two
forty four. I seen it earlier.

Speaker 4 (33:07):
So they're expecting a lot of points here, and she'd
get a lot of points and assist opportunities in this one.
So over Derek Queen points assists over twenty and a half. Yeah, yeah,
so there's a there's a perfect example. I wasn't planning
to say that I bet them but in the past
with it. But yeah, there's a perfect example of that.
So go over on his and and smoking hot on

(33:31):
these props. I didn't know the record. You think I
know records like I have to get off my assistant.
I send them, I bet them, and I go so
and that's one thing. One other thing I do. So
I don't bet the thing first. You know, I just
told you I can bet like five thousand on props.
I don't bet it and then send it after it moves.
That's that's bullshit. I would never do that.

Speaker 3 (33:51):
I send the props, send them, send.

Speaker 4 (33:53):
Them to the public. And and by the way, if
I don't get it in, great, I still have a bet.
You know what the bet is. If it wins, the
customers realize it, and I'll get more business. So that's
the way I work, and it's been it's been going
really well.

Speaker 3 (34:09):
Listen, I know what I do on props every year.
I know why all those local guys stiff me over
the years. It's for props. And it's for betting early
in the week.

Speaker 4 (34:17):
By the way, So if you're betting something now Monday
morning for next week's college college football or yet even
pro football, if you bet like like this morning, I've
seen a major line move on Dallas. So the Cowboys
plus three and a half minus one ten. If you're
betting that early morning and you see the market and

(34:38):
you're chasing some steam.

Speaker 3 (34:40):
Well it sits in the account there all week. You know,
your local BM looks at bookmaker that is looks at it,
and he sees it, and he says, look at is.
This guy got three and a half on this game.
It's three. This guy got five and a half on
this game, it's four. And they say, well, what are
we what are we doing here? We're you know, we're
having a local shop here.

Speaker 4 (34:57):
Following they start yelling at the local shops and at
the local guys, the local.

Speaker 3 (35:02):
Place that the PPH guy.

Speaker 4 (35:04):
They you know, they say, well listen, we'll alert you
whenever this guy plays steam. So sure enough, that's what
makes that get try that's what makes you get in trouble.
So not that you don't want to bet games that move,
because you do want closing line value, but it's better
to bet something same day of the game, a college
basketball game, college football game. This way, there's a lot

(35:25):
of stuff going on that same day.

Speaker 3 (35:27):
It mixes in.

Speaker 4 (35:28):
It's hard for a book to look at every single bet.
A book maker because he has so many different customers,
he wants to check what he has at risk or
exposure for the day. But with college football and NFL
and stuff like that, sometimes you do have to get
ahead of the line. So you do have to play
with shops that keep that keep you playing here South
Point Westgate Circa. I could bet anything early in the week,

(35:53):
don't matter that they take the games off me and
they move them, though you can guarantee they do move
the game.

Speaker 3 (35:58):
So there's a little little you know.

Speaker 4 (36:03):
Peek into my world and peek into the world of
an advantage better that actually sells games. It's very very
hard to do. It's very hard for an advantage better
to sell games. So it's it's an interesting thing. Most
people sell games and just stays there the whole day.
It's the reason why I was having a hard time.
Sometimes people got to keep their notifications on. On wager Talk,

(36:25):
you have to keep your notification emails on.

Speaker 3 (36:28):
That's just the way it is. Right now, we're working
on an app.

Speaker 4 (36:30):
We're gonna have an app out eventually with the games
where you can get the notification run on your phone.

Speaker 3 (36:36):
But you have to have the notification on because my
stuff will move.

Speaker 4 (36:41):
But however, I've been noticing, you know, I follow things
real careful I've been noticing not too bad with wager talk.
Not too bad of movement out there, and it's still
available for a couple hours after the email goes out.
So it has been. It's been an interesting run here.
That was my big that my main concern Andy was joining.

(37:02):
When joining, I was like, I want a customer, the
customers to get an obtainable line. You know, I don't
do this bullshit where people say, oh, bet this line
at hard Rock Florida, bet.

Speaker 3 (37:12):
This line at Bet three sixty five.

Speaker 4 (37:15):
I don't do that. I give it attainable line. I
use the DraftKings and fan Duel, that's what most people have.
I'll use the maybe the Chris, I'll do a combination
of all of them. I want the customers to get
an obtainable line. That's my biggest thing. I know I'm
gonna miss out on many many units that pad the
record by saying, oh, you can get this at one

(37:36):
single sports book.

Speaker 3 (37:37):
I refuse to do that. I refuse to do that.

Speaker 1 (37:41):
Any thoughts on Monday Night football tonight.

Speaker 3 (37:45):
I don't know those playing. No, I'm joking. I'm not
being funny Monday Night Listen.

Speaker 4 (37:52):
You guys don't want to think about NFL sides and
NFL primetime games. Just because they're on TV does not
mean anything to me. It doesn't mean, like I know,
everyone's gotta have a bet. Though I have literally waved
the white flag, the white towel because I just know
what sports betting is. I know what the humany makeup is,
I know the dynamic of us. We just can't just

(38:14):
sit and watch a game. Sam Fran, Carolina. We gotta
have some action on it. It's the reason why I
say everyone should have a season win, bet on a
team or something.

Speaker 3 (38:24):
Are you can even going right now?

Speaker 4 (38:26):
I know apps like bet MGM, the Caesars, and I
know these apps have You can bet futures right now
over underseason wins. Throw five or ten bucks on a
forty nine ers or Carolina over on the for the
season's way.

Speaker 3 (38:39):
You can root on the game or something. Don't just
fire on a side because you think you know.

Speaker 4 (38:44):
Or a teaser like tonight's game, easy teaser game, I understand,
I understand that the game's over already in many people's eyes.
Sam Fran minus a half in a teaser.

Speaker 3 (38:52):
Minus one and a half, bringing it down through the
key numbers of seven and three.

Speaker 4 (38:55):
Well, the problem with that is you laying a dollar
thirty five or more on a teaser.

Speaker 3 (39:00):
In the end, that's unbeatable. So I don't even give
out teasers because they're.

Speaker 4 (39:04):
Unbeatable unless you're playing with the local shops and they
take it a six point q's a minus one ten
or even minus one twenty. You can't go up higher
than that. But anyway, I'll have a prop bet probably
on the game. But that's about it. There's no sweat
equity on the side or.

Speaker 3 (39:19):
Total for me. What we'll have them up later air
Wader Talk, all.

Speaker 1 (39:23):
Right, so Bill will have his plays up. Tell everyone
else which got going on for for the today.

Speaker 3 (39:29):
I went over.

Speaker 4 (39:30):
I went over to the wager Talk site just to
check to see what they had up for me. And yeah,
it looks like there's a there's a you know, nice
packages there. Still they're they're talking about my twenty twenty
eight and fifteen NBA prop run.

Speaker 3 (39:44):
I'm gonna win on props. It's that simple. Props is
really I'm the prop meister. I'm gonna win on the
NFL and NBA props. So join us over there, like I.

Speaker 4 (39:54):
Said, join me for a long term package, though anything
can happen one day. You want to join one day
just to you know, spend some money for a little
bit of money for one day. Join me for a week,
join me for a month, join me to the end
of the super Bowl. We're gonna have super Bowl props.

Speaker 3 (40:08):
Just email the site and we'll we'll we'll make hip
a package till the end of the super Bowl and
and uh to the end of the NBA season. Really too.

Speaker 4 (40:17):
NBA props are you know, they go until until May and.

Speaker 3 (40:20):
So there we go. That's it, Andy, you know, I mean,
I'm not a good salesman.

Speaker 4 (40:23):
I just talk about what's going on, talk about like
life what it is, and people can make their own decisions.
But you know, if you want to win long term,
let me and my team do the work for you.
You guys work forty fifty hours a week. Just get
the emails and fire and gets for on your local book.

Speaker 1 (40:42):
I love it, love it, awesome stuff. Bill, Thank you
very much. Check your Twitter DMS. I'm gonna send you
a message after this show. Everybody. All right, oh, all right,
I figured out how to change the name in the
In the chat here, you click on the on the
on the upper right of your YouTube channel. You click
on your photo or your avatar and it says view

(41:05):
your channel. You click on view your channel, and then
you click on customize and you can change the handle
so you can put something like Andy is truly awesome,
like I did in there. So that's how you can
change it YouTube. I don't know why YouTube change it,
but you can go into your channel and get it
that way. We can all see your your the way
we can all see your your real names, because i mean,

(41:27):
let's face it, r J five seven eight is not
nearly as sexy as seen as a real name. So
all right, let's bring in Steve Merrill. We had a
lot to get to Steve. Happy Monday, Steve, how was
your weekend doing?

Speaker 3 (41:42):
Well?

Speaker 5 (41:42):
I'm gonna have to go back and listen to what
you just said.

Speaker 3 (41:44):
Again.

Speaker 5 (41:44):
I didn't realize you're talking about the actual like comments
on the main because yeah, mine does that. I've got
a couple counts I used to pity if I'm on
my laptop or my phone and they're all like Steve
Merrill's zero five two nine dash by five five, But
it says my name, so I assume people know it's
me replying back, because as you know, I do read
the comments and replied back, so that's good to know.

Speaker 1 (42:02):
Yep. Yeah, it's really easy. You just click on your
click on your profile, hit view channel, and then customize
and we'll see where to change. All right, you got
three games of break Down Force. Let's get started with
Monday Night Football. We got Panthers and forty nine Ers.
I already have the Panthers plus the points locked in
for my super contest pick. So I'm hoping you're on

(42:23):
the right side and they are the same side with me.
Maybe maybe not. How do you break down this Panthers
forty nine Ers game?

Speaker 3 (42:29):
Cracking up?

Speaker 5 (42:30):
Because I don't use Instagram a lot, I do put
some wager talk stuff up there and it popped up.
It was a nineties skid from SNL. Chris Farley was
doing the Monday Night Football drunk and whatever, and Will
Ferrell was the producer ABC, and it's like said, now
what he said, Monday Night's all I think of now.
But this was a matchup that would not have been
very good back then, and still not consider too well

(42:52):
of a match up here with the Panthers Niners. But
I think the Panthers are alive dog in this one.
Of course, did a standalone video for this, as I
do for all this Sunday Night Monday Night games. Gave
you the Rams last night for free in my Sunday
Night video, this past Thursday, the Texans for free now eleven,
and two of those Thursday Prime videos. We're gonna put
it on the line because there are three Thursday NFL

(43:13):
games this week for Thanksgiving. Yet technically the prime game
is the Friday game between the Bears and Eagles, a
little technicality there, so I will have all those games
for you this week Thanksgiving week. So click subscribe, click
the bill for instant alerts. If you want a deep
dive in this game, go back and watch the ten
minute video. But one thing I point out in that
video and also my Fade the Public video, is that
the forty nine ers one of the most public sides

(43:34):
this week, and by the way, Buffalo on Thursday was
maybe the most public side this week. But I don't
use the Thursday games for the fade the public. And
then yesterday we had two of them, Detroit and Seattle.
Detroit never in it. Seattle did cover, So we'll see
what the public ends up doing. They're currently one and
two this week, and this is the fourth game this
week that was very public, and I do think this
is a spot where we can fade the public for

(43:54):
a couple reasons. First of all, adjusted line value. You know,
one of the reasons fade in the public works long
term is good. If everyone's on one side, you get
a little extra line value, and that is the case.

Speaker 3 (44:04):
Now.

Speaker 5 (44:04):
This line was open six six and a half a
week ago. It was seven for some of this week.
Now it's pretty much seven and a half across the board.
If you like the Niners, you probably missed the minus seven.
If you like the Panthers, you step in down and
get that plus seven and a half. There's about a
three to four percent chances game lands exactly on that
key number of seven, so it's seven and a half
or more. I do think there's some value here with

(44:24):
the Panthers, and I also like the matchup. Carolina flying
a little bit under the radar now six and five
straight up, The Niners are just seven and four, and
San Francisco is actually alternated wins and losses going all
the way back to mid September. Their last eight or
nine games it's been win loss, win, loss, win loss,
and of course they won at Arizona last week, so
we'll see if that trade continues with a loss tonight.

(44:45):
And Carolina also has been a feisty little underdog here
in recent weeks. After that one and three straight up start,
they have quietly gone five and two straight up and
against the spread their last seven, and I believe four
of those five wins have come as an underdog. I
think Carolina's alive here plus seven and a half or more,
and we'll fade the public in this one tonight on Monday.

Speaker 1 (45:05):
Nice. Nice, let's go, let's go. Come on Panthers. That's
a phrase I never thought i'd hear, Come on Panthers.

Speaker 5 (45:13):
Bryce Young, by the way, and he coming off maybe
his best game ever last week. You know, party returned. Also,
I failed to mention that he had three touchdowns no picks.
Bryce Young threw for over four hundred yards, three touchdowns,
no picks, So we'll see if he's finally turning the
corner after being a pretty week number one pick.

Speaker 1 (45:29):
Yeah, Bryce Young and Jacoby Brissett tearing it up as expects.
We live in Steve, by the way. How's that for
like one of the best pieces of trivia, like moving forward,
like who holds the record for the most completion in
a game in NFL history And it's Jacoby Brissett. That's crazy. Yeah,
all right, let's go to the NBA Cavaliers Raptors. I

(45:51):
love this Cavs team. They were one of my favorite
overs for season win totals. And this Raptors team, there's
oping there. I don't know what's there, but I feel
like there's something there there. They're not a terrible team here,
and that's kind of what this line is telling you.
Cleveland's only minus two and a half here over under
two thirty six. How do you break down Cavs and Raptors.

Speaker 5 (46:11):
Yeah, so this game is literally lighting up right now
in the Odds Logic screen as we're doing this live
around twelve forty five Eastern on Monday, both the side
and total. I didn't see a ton on the injury report.
Sam Merrill two ours two l's unfortunately is questionable with
an illness, and we do know Merrill moves the line,
so maybe that's what this is. But Cleveland's a little
bit of money coming in on It looks like Cleveland

(46:32):
now they've gone for two two and a half up
to three across the board, and that total is definitely dropping.
It opened as high as two thirty nine. You mentioned
two thirty six. Well now it's two thirty five as
of a couple of minutes ago. Lighting up like a
Christmas tree this Thanksgiving week on the Odds Logic screen.
So money coming in on Cleveland and on the under Toronto.
Twelve and five on the season, a little bit of
a surprise and star at the Cavaliers. As you said,

(46:53):
twelve and six, probably where they should be, but keep
in mind they've done more damage recently. They got off
to a little bit of a shaky start this season,
going just three and three straight up. They won four
straight and then they lost two out of three, but
they've now won four their last five. But they aren't
coming off of no rest situation after that home win
against the Clippers yesterday on Sunday. Really streaky over underteam.

(47:13):
They went over their first two games this year, then
five straight unders, and then we had six straight overs,
and now we've had five straight unders. So the under
money is coming in here again. Unrested situation. One thing
Cleveland does do play do well is play good defense.
They've got a lot of size down low, and I
think that's why we're seeing a little bit of money
on Cleveland, and it probably is correlated to that side

(47:35):
as well as far as Toronto. This team I mentioned
twelve and five, it's pretty impressive considered they started just
one in four this year and they have quietly won
what is it, eleven of their last twelve games straight up,
including a current seven game win streak. So I'm not
sure I'm in a hurry to fade a team at
home dog on a seven game win streak. But they
also have no rest, but they stayed at home against Brooklyn.

(47:56):
Big step up in class though for Toronto in this game,
after being a double digit favorite at home yesterday, now
they're a slight dog. Meanwhile, Cleveland, coming off the La
Clipper game, one of the tougher teams in the league
and now a slight road favorite. I can understand the
money coming in on Cleveland and the under I would
probably prefer to have Cleveland here, even though Toronto has
been red hot. I think it's a big stuff up
in class for the Raptors. We'll take the better team

(48:18):
here in the caves. Late of minus three, and I
think that does correlate to the under two to thirty
five as well as you're the better defensive squad.

Speaker 1 (48:24):
All right, Cavaliers and Raptors, We're going to move to
college basketball Saint John's Iowa State. Before you do that,
televernon what you have up on Monday.

Speaker 5 (48:32):
It's a great time of the week, great time of
the week to be an all sports, all access client
at wager talk dot com. And I have a special
offer I mentioned last week in my free play videos.
And I know many of you got on board already
and we had a nice sixty seven percent weekend in
college and pro football. But if you wait it it's
not too late to get the rest of November three.
We have a full week to go still. It's so simple.
You buy December, you get the rest of November three.

(48:54):
You see the details on your screen right now. Why
wait until next Monday, December First, get this entire Thanksgiving
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December all Sports, all Access, no promo code needed. Steve
merrillwager talk dot com. And by the way, that's right
above the daily free play. Don't sleep on the daily
free play at the Packers yesterday for you, and the

(49:15):
free players are hitting over sixty five percent over the
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Speaker 1 (49:28):
All right, let's do it. College basketball Saint John's Iowa State.
Tell me about these teams. We got a pretty short
line here minus two and a half over under one
fifty eight and a half.

Speaker 5 (49:40):
Yeah, first thing I'll say is this Thanksgiving a week,
you're gonna have a lot of neutral courts, so make sure.
And that's why the odds Logger screen once again is
a great resource. And by the way, you get a
free seven day trial. There's a promo code on my
page at Wagertalk dot com for odds Logic. But it
will show you where all these games are taking place.
It'll show you show you the kind of the brackets
they're in to say, maybe you know some possible look
aheads and whatnot. And this is one of the those
neutral court games. It's the Players Era Championship in Las Vegas, Nevada.

(50:04):
Nicelob Ultra Light arena. Tons of games in this tournament.
Some are at the Ultra Light Arena like this one,
some are at the MGM Grand Arena, this one by
the way, at four third Easterns. We got a lot
of daytime action as well. And we have seen the
money so far come in on Iowa State. They opened
as a brief one point favorite. Now it's two and
a half even some three starting to show out. There

(50:25):
some money coming in on Iowa State. Not much moving
on the total a little bit to the under one
fifty nine and a half down to one fifty eight,
one fifty seven and a half. So Iowa State and
the under has seen the initial action in this game.
And these are two really good defensive teams. They both
ranked top fifteen defensive efficiency this season. They're both top
sixteen ranked teams overall. Of course, we always look at

(50:45):
tempo when we look at these games, and Saint John's
does like to play up tempo even though they play
good Tenation's defense. They do it fast, full court pressure
with Patino and Iowa States kind of what I call
a neutral team, and what I look for at the
neutral teams is when they play down teams, they probably
get slowed down. When they play faster teams, they speed
up a little bit. So it'll be interesting to see
if Iowa State likes this tempo. They currently rank them

(51:08):
the top third in tempo, so I think they will.
So I'm not in a hurry to get on the
under money, but I can understand the move from one
to fifty nine down to one to fifty seven and
a half because it is a neutral arena, first game there,
the sightlines and shooting sometimes can be different, and it's
a pretty big total. Obviously, one fifty seven and a
half for two good defensive teams is high, but I
would lean towards Iowa State. I agree with that move

(51:28):
from minus one to minus three. I think they're the
better overall team. And Willy Mary Tribe hung within three
with Saint John's last Saturday a couple of weeks ago.
I think I've blown up with like thirty two or something.
But Saint John's has been vulnerable at times this season.
They've underachieved a little bit at times this year. I
actually took a shot with them against Alabama's, a stancial favorite,
back in Game two, and they lost outright. So that

(51:49):
was a real red flag for me whenever a team
is in what I think is a good spot and
then loses outright, And that did carry over as I
mentioned that William Mary game is they're only up a
like three and a half mental thirty three point win,
and then they beat up on a bed buck Nell
team in their most recent game. Iowa State hasn't exactly
been battle tested either, but the one good team they played,
Mississippi State, they handle rather easily by sixteen points. I

(52:10):
think that the better squad right now, and I agree
with that line move. Take a look at Iowa State
minus three that goes at four thirty eastern in Vegas
today on Monday.

Speaker 1 (52:18):
All right, Steve Merril, great breakdown, get all of his
free plays over at his page, and again get December,
but get it today. You get the rest of November
for absolutely free. Steve, tell them again, which the shortcut
to get to your page?

Speaker 5 (52:31):
Yeah, it's quite simple, WT dot buzz slash sm and
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Click that bell you'll get all my weeknight college and

(52:51):
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Speaker 1 (52:56):
All right, Steve Merril, thank you very much. Have a
big week do all around the world. Then we're going
to break down the Nuggets and the Grizzlies, so let's
do some free plays. We'll go to the NFL tonight.
It's looking like a Bryce Young over two oh six
and a half passing. This is just too low. I
know you guys mentioned some of you mentioned Shadur Sanders.
We actually cashed for clients Shadur Sanders over his passing.

(53:18):
His passed THO was like one to fifty eight. It's
just way too low. I feel the same way about
this one, mostly because the defense are going up by
This is forty nine ers that since Fred Warner's injury,
given up two hundred and fifty six passing per game.
Since Fred Warner's injury, every quarterback except Jackson Dart has
gone over this total. So give me Bryce Young to
go over his passing as a strong lean NBA Pacers Pistons.

(53:39):
Duncan Robinson over ten and a half points. He's been
really good recently, thirteen plus points in seven straight, playing
thirty one point nine minutes per game, making over four
shots per game, and three of those are three pointers.
And the Pacers afll on defense give up twenty four
points a game to small forward. So Duncan Robinson over

(53:59):
his point and then we'll go to the Nets and
the next Jalen Brunson over two and a half rebounds
really low here, Nets give up five rebounds per game
to point guinds. Brunson has gone over in four straight
and he's averaging six point six rebound chances this season
per game, so I kind of expected this number to
be three and a half. So I think we're getting
a free rebound here on Jalen Brunson. All right, let's

(54:19):
break down the Nuggets and the Grizzlies. Denver Nuggets minus
eight and a half against the Memphis Grizzlies over under
sits at two thirty two and a half. We talked
about this Grizzlies team last week, what if not having
job Moran, there was a little bit of addition by subtraction,

(54:39):
and sure enough, what's happened. The Grizzlies have won two
games in a row. Granted was against Sacramento and Dallas,
but that's a huge win by big margin against Sacramento,
then a six point win against Dallas. And meanwhile, you
have a Denver Nuggets team that they added depth to
their team, and they need it already because Aaron Gordon

(55:00):
is nursing a hamstring. He's going to be out for
this game. And you look at this Nuggets team. They're
coming off a loss to Sacramento, and it's kind of interesting.
You look at who the Nuggets lose to. They're in
letdown spots, so they lose to Chicago by three, they
lose to Sacramento, and then they also lost at Portland. Like,
those teams are not awful, but they're certainly not on

(55:20):
the caliber of like, for example, Houston, which was a
team that Denver beat. So I look at this Denver
team and without Aaron Gordon, you're getting a lot of
this Jokic and valanchunis a double lineup, which is a
lot of fun to watch. But I just don't think
they're in the mode of trying to beat up teams
really really bad Jokic has been spectacular, but I could

(55:43):
see a little bit of a letdown spot. Edie has
looked fantastic for the Grizzlies, so I like the Grizzlies
to keep this one close. They just looked a little
bit better without John Morano. They're gonna be missing a
few people, but eight and a half kind of feels
like a little bit of a look ahead spot for Denver.
So I will take the Grizzlies plus eight and a
half and for a couple of props, I don't see

(56:04):
Santy al Dama's points number when it comes out. He's
been on fire with John Morant out of the lineup,
so I would be looking at him, and I would
also be looking at Peyton Watson to go over his rebounds.
He stepped in nicely and has gone over this rebounding
total of five and a half in every game that
Aaron Gordon has been out of. So there's a couple
free props and a lean to the side for the

(56:25):
Grizzlies and the Nuggets. And once again tonight we have
our Monday Night Football best bet that is up and
I've attached for free bonus two NBA props that will
be playing tonight and I think we're gonna have an
NHL added out as well. So that turned out to
be a really really nice pack. We're twenty and eleven
in NFL primetime games, looking to make that twenty one
and eleven. So primetime games has just been one of

(56:45):
the bright spots this year in the NFL season. So
partner up with us, jump on board. That's over at
wt dot buzz slash al and get those two free
NBA picks posted as well. All right, thank you very
much guys for join us, and we're gonna do it
again tomorrow and we're gonna start getting you ready for
Thanksgiving again. The schedule for this week, we will be

(57:06):
on Tuesday and Wednesday off Thursday, but then we will
be here for football Friday. I will be out of town,
but I'll be hosting hopefully from the Airbnb, so we
should out a good, good weeks of shows. So thanks
Ruch for joining us. Make sure you hit the like
button subscribe to the YouTube channel. Let's have a big
night and we'll see everyone tomorrow. Take care