WagerTalk Today | Monday Best Bets! | NFL MNF and NBA Picks & Predictions | 12/8/25 - WagerTalk: Sports Betting Tips

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
A Lah.

Speaker 2 (00:02):
Welcome to wage You Talk today, the gold standard of
sports betting shows, where we talk to talk and walk
the walk. It's Monday, got a big week ahead of us,
got a loaded slate. Yanni's gonna join us with the
Steam Report, crack Man's gonna drop an NBA prop. I'm
look at some thoughts on Monday Night football, and I
got a couple other interesting tidbits to ask him. Steve
Merrill gonna give us quick look at Eagles and Chargers

(00:23):
along with Suns Timberwolves. Interesting game in the NBA tonight,
and we're gonna start talking about Bowl games. Steve just
breaks down every single Bowl game in the video. So
we're gonna start talking a little bit about Bowl games
and get ready for that. I want to get his
thoughts on the Notre Dame situation. So we got some
good insights, We've got some good matchups in a really,
really big week ahead. Thank you so much for joining us.

(00:44):
Let's get started here. Hit that like button, and let's
bring in Yanni. Yanni, you and I were talking before
the show, and you and I both are coming off
of monster wins personally, so I'll let you go first
talk to us about you. You had Josh Fan and

(01:07):
you win in the first thirty seconds because of a
fluke injury. We'll take it, brother.

Speaker 3 (01:12):
I will take it. Bro.

Speaker 4 (01:14):
It dawned on me that the inside the distance applies
five hundred hit About eight minutes later, after celebrating the win,
I was like, oh my god, does that count inside
the distance too? It was so incredible, I swear to you.
I left the arena. I was at T Mobile and
I didn't even stay for the main event. My sixteen
fighter parlay was in. I had hit for the show.

(01:34):
I hit my five percent. Like, everything was perfect. Let's
get out of it here, let's go celebrate this. So it's
just a perfect night. And it's been a great week.
College football was great, NFL was great. Since starting the steamsheet,
it's really helped me lower that volume where I'm able
to share all the information for guys that handicap their
own stuff and want to become plus EB betters themselves,

(01:56):
but then also really narrowed down that premium card to
the strongest possible stuff. And yeah, the results have been really,
really good. I'm so excited for the bull season coming up.
Like the power ratings have more data now in than
you know ever in the season. So I'm really confident
heading into this bull season. Historically that's been very, very

(02:18):
profitable NFL end of the season as well.

Speaker 3 (02:21):
College basketball, we.

Speaker 4 (02:22):
Had getting more and more data in NBA, so those
power ratings are tightening up as well as you can
tell from the recent results. And yeah, just really excited again.
It's the holidays coming up. Have an extra money in
your pocket. That's what I wanted to do. But please, please,
please stay.

Speaker 3 (02:39):
Consistent with best size.

Speaker 4 (02:40):
Do not make the mistake of thinking, well, I was
betting one hundred dollars a game, he's up forty units.
I made four dimes. I could be up eight dimes
if I was just bent in two hundred. Don't do that.
Don't make it harder on yourself than.

Speaker 5 (02:51):
It needs to be.

Speaker 4 (02:52):
Stay consistent. We'll keep cashing more than we trash. And
real quickly. Before we move on, I need to give
out my comment about the college football rankings. I'm gonna
tell you right now and when it's been following bet
on it, I think can see that I have no
opinion at all, I have no bias at all. I
could care less what the teams are. I just trust
what my numbers tell me. And here's what my numbers

(03:14):
tell me. That Notre Dame should be in the college
football playoffs well before Miami. In fact, on a neutral field,
neutral field that they were playing right now in my backyard,
Notre Dame. The true line, not the fair line, the
true power rating line. Notre Dame would be an eight,
eight and a half point favorite over that Miami team

(03:37):
that they lost to back in August or September. That's
what the disconnected. A lot of recreational betters don't understand
that there's a lot of randomness to a sixty minute
football game, and even though you have to slightly adjust
your power ratings based on the result, you don't adjust significantly.
And just the perfect example Eagles versus Chicago. Chicago beat

(03:58):
the Eagles as seven point dogs. People in Chicago were
going nuts, but what they didn't realize is if they
were playing the very next day, Eagles would still be
a heavy favored against Chicago, maybe not a seven point favor,
but still around a five or six point favorite. That's
the disconnect, and I think that's where the argument comes in, Like, wait,
Miami beat Notre Dame, so of course Miami should be

(04:20):
in there.

Speaker 3 (04:20):
No, no, no.

Speaker 4 (04:22):
No, there's a lot of random that they could have
played that game a day later, three days later, and
the outcome could have been very different. That's why I
stick to what the power ratings stay because they have
no opinion, they don't care.

Speaker 3 (04:32):
It's strictly data.

Speaker 4 (04:33):
And right now it's Indiana's the best team in the country,
followed by Ohio State, followed by Oregon, followed by Georgia,
followed by Texas Tech. Those are the five best teams
in the country power rating wise, and right behind them
is Notre Dame. Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, and Georgia and
Texas Tech are the only five teams that would be

(04:56):
favored over.

Speaker 3 (04:57):
Notre Dame on a neutral field.

Speaker 4 (05:00):
Even Indiana against Notre Dame would only be about a
one point favorite.

Speaker 3 (05:05):
That's how close these teams are with Notre Dame and Indiana.

Speaker 4 (05:11):
And believe it or not, Ohio State, if they played
again tomorrow, would still be favored over Indiana. I repeat,
If Ohio State played Indiana tomorrow, Ohio State would still
be about a two and a half three point favorite.
That's how the market works, and I think that's a
lot to disconnect with more recreational fans thinking, you know,

(05:33):
team A beats Team B, that's who should be who
the better team is not necessarily.

Speaker 2 (05:39):
I think I agree with you. I mean, I went
to Indiana. I've been wearing my Eyeu hoodie all week,
and if they rematch again, yeah, I would absolutely have
Ohio State as the favorite myself.

Speaker 3 (05:51):
I yeah, and I loved Indiana. I had Indiana. They
cashed for me.

Speaker 4 (05:55):
I'm happy with Indiana, but just my power rating show
Ohio State would still be fair over them.

Speaker 2 (06:01):
Yeah, we were, just we've just been pammering the unders
on the opponent team total of Ohio State. So I'm sad,
sad that the season's coming to an end because that
that gravy training isn't going to be around anymore. We'll
have to find some other any other thoughts here on
any of these first round games we've got James Madison
had Oregon Tulane.

Speaker 3 (06:19):
That's what's going to be interesting.

Speaker 4 (06:21):
That's what I'm interested in to see how those kind
of teams perform because power rating wise, like there's a
huge discrepancy.

Speaker 3 (06:30):
And let me give you an example right now. James Madison.

Speaker 4 (06:33):
Okay, power rated wise, there's I have thirty five plus
teams that would be favored over James the twelve and
one James Madison, including six and six Pence State, that
would be about a ten eleven point favor over James Madison.
In fact, a team like Indiana would be three touchdown

(06:56):
favorites over James Madison. That's difference, Like you win your
conference you're in, but the difference that between the top
teams and the bottom tier teams.

Speaker 3 (07:08):
There's no parody.

Speaker 4 (07:09):
This isn't the NFL where any given Sunday, James Madison
could play Indiana one hundred times, and one hundred times
Indiana's going to win that game out right. They may
not cover the spread, but they will win that game
one hundred times because they just have the better athletes.
Like unless that they all get injured or something like that,
they are the better team. Again, there's a lot of randomness, turnovers,
bad calls, whatever, but ninety nine out of one hundred

(07:32):
times that would still happen.

Speaker 3 (07:33):
We're in the NFL. That's not the case.

Speaker 4 (07:35):
We see it all the time, like the thirty second
team can have a winning day on Sunday and the
most will ever be is you know, two touchdown dogs.

Speaker 3 (07:43):
And we haven't even seen that this year.

Speaker 4 (07:45):
But in college football, you're talking between the rankings between
the first team and the tenth team twelfth team could
sometimes be.

Speaker 3 (07:52):
Three touchdowns plus.

Speaker 4 (07:54):
That's that's the difference. Some of these teams have no
business being in there. I think RJ said it best,
zero business being there, and uh but it's soull the
system set up, and it's like March madness. We see
it in March madness every all the time, where you know,
number one verse sixteen, they're forty point favors, they're not
going to lose. But once every forty years it happens.
So who knows, maybe this is the year, but I

(08:14):
just don't see it.

Speaker 1 (08:15):
I just don't see it.

Speaker 2 (08:18):
Yeah, listen, I'm with you and I will. I gotta
say this, my O highest state friends have been very
quiet the last couple silence, not a lot.

Speaker 1 (08:27):
Of phods silence.

Speaker 4 (08:29):
It's definitely like we're like the Bears fans. Their silence
is deafening today.

Speaker 2 (08:34):
There was a lot of chatter leading up to the game,
but boy, they must just be uh must uh. Yeah,
I don't know what happened there.

Speaker 3 (08:47):
Exactly they show up before never after.

Speaker 2 (08:53):
It's so true. Let's let's talk steam report. I know
we only got a few NBA games, got some college
back basketball. What are we seeing here? It's a betible slate,
but not not expecting it is. There's still some good spots.

Speaker 4 (09:05):
And I didn't put out a steam sheet today because
there's such a small board and I I could just
share that here on Way to Talk today with you guys,
and my subscribers will get the premium stuff.

Speaker 3 (09:16):
Most of the stuff got hit overnight. Here's what I'm
talking about.

Speaker 4 (09:19):
NBA Indiana minus three and a half got hit with
about a half a point. Haven't seen many groups piggyback
in that. Another one, Minnesota the overnight got hit.

Speaker 3 (09:28):
At eight and a half. Since it's sat at about ten,
we haven't seen any action.

Speaker 4 (09:31):
But I kind of like the Minnesota sign. I'm starting
to see public taking the Phoenix side again. I don't
like to just fade the public, but I don't mind
being on the sharp side when they're anti public. And
also the under got hit at two twenty seven and
a half and they moved that quickly, so so not
much the piggyback college basketball all added games three oh

(09:52):
six five thirty ten, minus five and five and a half,
three six, five thirty two Charlotte, Charlotte Souther, Alton Southern
forgive me minus seven and a half and eight, and
then three oh six five three eight Kansas State from
minus thirty one all the way to minus thirty four.

Speaker 6 (10:08):
They were hitting it when it opened quickly, limit bet
limit bett, limit bet limit bet. Since then, they've been
getting piggyback and over over over fifty six, fifty seven
and fifty eight.

Speaker 4 (10:20):
Those numbers are gone, and finally Incarnate Word. They took
them as a dog, took them at pick them now
they're the one point favorite. The three that stick out
the most that I saw multiple groups. I would say
Minnesota in the NBA, and then in college basketball it's
uh Charleston, Southern and Incarnate Word, where I would say,

(10:41):
there's been agreement from the ships on those three sides.

Speaker 2 (10:48):
All right, Uh so what all? What all did you
have on your josh Van? I'm curious you said you
had him inside the.

Speaker 4 (10:54):
Five on josh Van five percent at plus two hundred dide.
I put that out as soon as I that line
up like last Sunday, and the only reason I didn't
release the five percent in college football or NFL because
I told Johnny I have some that warrant it, but
I want Van to be that big of a bet,
like I like them that much.

Speaker 3 (11:10):
Even if you lost it, I felt confident I was
getting the best of it.

Speaker 4 (11:13):
And then I had a two percent on him inside
the distance at plus five hundred, So we picked up
like twenty units in that fight, man like. It felt
perfectly and on the show for UFC on the line
that put me now, I think I might have catapulted
and finished first for the year. So it just turned
out perfectly, almost like you couldn't have write a better ending.

Speaker 3 (11:33):
And uh yeah, you know, sometimes it's tough.

Speaker 4 (11:36):
We got to take it when it's hard on you,
but when it all falls your way, it's why we
do it so great couple of days for sure.

Speaker 2 (11:45):
Anything on Monday Night Football, we got some injuries. It
looks like Herbert's gonna play. I know, Lane, d.

Speaker 3 (11:53):
Okay, I've done well with these primetime games.

Speaker 4 (11:55):
Here's what you got to just determine, is Philly have
the wheels falling off? And is this team not who
they are? They a former shell of themselves? Because on paper,
they're the better team. They have the better offense, they
have the better defense, and they have the tougher strength
of schedule. So even with the tougher strength of schedule,
they produced more impressive offensive and defensive statistics.

Speaker 3 (12:16):
So they're the better team.

Speaker 4 (12:17):
And home field advantage for Chargers isn't more than two points,
so Philly should be the rightful road favorite. But is
this version of Philadelphia not that version of Philadelphia? And
if that's the case, it's an auto bet on the
Chargers as home dogs. And I think that's why they
took out the plus threes on the Chargers, thinking that
the Eagles are a former shell of themselves. But if

(12:39):
you think that was just two bad games, then you're
getting this team at a huge discount.

Speaker 3 (12:44):
So far, I haven't seen much much risk on this one.
Probably gonna end.

Speaker 4 (12:50):
Up, you know, the books needing the Chargers. Usually the
favorite less than a field go gets the money. But
I haven't seen real sharp money other than taking out
that three and a little bit on the under when
that total opened at forty three and a half.

Speaker 2 (13:07):
Yeah, it's pretty good player props in that one. That's
kind of how I'll be. I'll be playing it. So
what do you have up for everyone on this Monday?

Speaker 3 (13:14):
Just the long term package, The Bowl package is already off.

Speaker 4 (13:18):
We're gonna start releasing plays this week, so you don't
want to wait because as you know, those lines aren't
going to be staying there for a very long football
package will be up well as well. With the NFL,
we had that special running for the year. I told
them just twenty four hours because there's been to ever
be that cheap again. I don't think that's a valuable anymore.
But if I'm able to confirm this Monday night game,
we're gonna fire primetime games been money for me now

(13:39):
eighteen and nine over the last twenty seven best bets
on Sunday Night football on Monday Night Football, So hopefully
we get some confirmation. Otherwise we just move on to
the next day. All about best bets and placing good
bets so we could be profitable and turn in a
nice holiday. So best of luck to everyone this week
and do some damage.

Speaker 2 (13:59):
All right, Thank you you're the Goat as always. Congratulations
on your big win here. All right, we got we
got a lot to get to. But first quick announcement here,
very excited about this one. Not thinking about nine months
since I took over hosting the show, we're kind of
learning a lot of what works, uh what doesn't work
in some of the bright spots, and we want to

(14:20):
really want to lean into that. One of the bright
spots has absolutely been Dan coming on and being being
on camera more so we got to lean into that. Uh.
He and I have really really had a really good
bond since we've been joining the show. So let's bring
on Dan, Dan, you are now officially the co host
of wager Talk Today, so we want.

Speaker 1 (14:40):
To yeah, yeah, and look at that. Yeah, no, I
we not have that. I shaved, I even showered. I
was like, well, usually, Andy, you know, I produced the show.
I've been producing wager Talk Today since I joined with
wager Talk over three years ago. Uh, it's a show
that I have loved being a part of. And usually,
you know, I'm the grubby producer behind the scenes. So

(15:02):
I was talking with Johnny and Rick and Kelly, and
they were like, why don't you actually shower before the show.
You're already hanging out with Andy. Throw yourself on the show.
We'll bounce some things around with some of these guests.
So Andy, I'm pumped to be here. I mean, the
community that you have built on this show has been
something great. You know, we have people who each and

(15:24):
every week they're comment and with who they agree with,
who they disagree with. For instance, we got people who
win three day Flex passes because they played the sell
Me game where each and every Friday, Teddy breaks down aside,
You break down aside. And we got Chris Robshad, who's
a Wager Talk insider here, he's a winner of a
free three day Flex pass simply because he watched the

(15:46):
show he engaged with the community. So congratulations to you, Chris.
But Andy, I couldn't be more pumped. Who would have thought, Yeah,
three years ago when you and I were recording Life
in the fast Lane and we would see it blazoned
upon us above our heads, the Wager Talk Today logo
with you and I hanging out. So we're pumped and

(16:07):
we appreciate them.

Speaker 2 (16:09):
Yeah yeah, it's uh. Listen. Our our job on this
show is to build your guys's bank role. We want
to inform, we want to entertain. Job number one is
building the bank roll, and Dan, you have absolutely proven
to be be very, very valuable for that. So congratulations.
We got some really good appreciate we got some really

(16:29):
good comments.

Speaker 3 (16:30):
R J.

Speaker 2 (16:30):
I love you. RJ has one of the funnier auto corrects.
He was nice enough to put a same game parlay
in the chat and we have to pull this one up.

Speaker 5 (16:40):
I mean.

Speaker 2 (16:44):
Fears herb Jones and Vasolene. It's Bcell It's supposed to
be Beseell, but our J congratulations. That's auto correct of
the day, Masolene to have twelve plus points. Thank you
for posting that. Though somebody wants to know about anytime
touch down Dan, we talked about the props earlier. I

(17:07):
quit Johnston. Maybe Jalen hurts even it's probably my favorite.
This may be a tough game for touchdown props.

Speaker 1 (17:14):
Well, and here's the thing is, you're asking for touchdown
scorers in a game that's lined at you know, forty
one and a half, and as far as NFL totals go,
you know that it's not like it's expected to be
some big shootout. These are two defenses who are pretty stout.
You know. The Eagles run defense definitely takes a bit
of a hit. As Jalen Carter's going to be out tonight.

(17:35):
I'm sure people have heard that. So yeah, if you
want to, you probably look towards Maryon Hampton. It's a
team who likes, you know, pushing the ball, you know,
through running and setting it up through the air. And
like you said too, it's the if it ain't broke,
don't fix it. If Jalen Hurts is around the two
yard line, it's a touch push and you're getting even money.

(17:56):
I mean, let's be real, Andy, betting anytime touchdowns in
twenty twenty five, ain't betting any time touchdowns in the
last few years. Prices have gone crazy, So you're even money,
even money. It's kind of telling you, hey, if they're
around the goal line, it's a good luck. I mean
a Marion Hampton plus one eighty Eagles receivers. Here's one thing,
Dallas Goddard. He hasn't really been featured as of late,

(18:20):
but there was a stretch in the season, Andy, I
believe it was a six game stretch where Dallas Goddard
had a touchdown or two touchdowns in So if you
want something that's a little bit juicier, a team that's
not all that great at defending tight ends, Dallas Goddrd
getting in the end zone at around plus two ninety
five plus three hundred. That could be something, but I'm not.
Those are no bets that I'm making. I'm not making

(18:41):
touchdowns or bets in a forty one and a half
line game. I'm just not.

Speaker 2 (18:45):
That's That's the honest answer. Is if you, if you,
if you want to, because you know you're gonna be
watching the game and you want it's a teeny tiny
little but I cannot find value. I cannot find a
good reason. But if I had to pick money, be
Jalen hurts.

Speaker 1 (19:00):
But yeah, it's someone you throwing to boost if you're
betting the same game, parlay with pizza money for fun tonight,
because you need action on the game, throwing in anytime
touchdown score. But the game isn't lined as oh, take
your pick on who's going to score a touchdown?

Speaker 2 (19:13):
Yeah yeah, this wasn't the Cowboys, Lions, or just line
them up and cash them. So let's go to our
week fourteen questions, and we'll go to where the books
won were the public one, and we'll talk about some
props and fantasy winners and losers questions. Is this just

(19:33):
a random bad year? Is this something worse? For the Chiefs,
I think we got to start asking those questions. I
wasn't ready to do that yet, but now they're like
plus four hundred to try just to even make the playoffs.
Who is the best team in the NFC South? Is
it the Panthers?

Speaker 1 (19:53):
I mean, my ticket on the Panthers to make the
playoffs or to win the division? I definitely hope so,
But it's a week by week's basis, man like, like,
who are any of them good? Are all of them good?
We know that, we know that it's not the Falcons.

Speaker 2 (20:08):
We know that, Yeah, it's not Kirk Cousins. But interesting question,
are the Dolphins sneaky good? We buried the Dolphins, We
buried them early in the season, and now I'm now
they're they're winning. They're a running team, power running team,
Miami Dolphins. Who would have thunk it?

Speaker 1 (20:25):
Well, Oh my god, there's different ways that you can
get to six and seven. Because now you have and
I'm not even gonna do the hand motion, that's ridiculous,
But we have three teams sitting there at six and seven,
and we have the Chiefs. Oh, think of the way
that they have got there. It's been a slog you
have the Ravens who started aful. Now they're six and seven.

(20:46):
The Dolphins are also six and seven, So why are
they not talking the same ilk aause those two teams.
It's because how ugly it was to start the year,
and Mike McDonnell wasn't fired. The team rallied behind them.
They continue to cover points spreads.

Speaker 2 (20:59):
Uh, what do my colts do? Now? Oh my god,
we traded our first round picks. We trade our first
round picks for sauce. He gets hurt and now Dimes
is out and now we don't even have our first
round pick. If they said they said maybe he might
make it for the start of next season, you're crazy
and kill You're not putting your quarterback out there after that.

Speaker 1 (21:23):
So they're not putting that quarterback out there. Andy, they
put the quarterback out there with a broken.

Speaker 2 (21:29):
Maybe they will, Maybe they will put him out there.
Who knows? What do I know? Who's the MVP? This
one changes every week. It's Josh Allen's turn this week.
You know it has the big but this one is
tough for me. I would have to say Josh Allen
at this point, but certainly not anything I'm willing to make.

Speaker 5 (21:45):
A bad.

Speaker 2 (21:47):
Yeah, Stafford, great one. Yeah, and then finally yeah, you
know yeah, and then Dan, how much would you have
to pay someone to go watch a Jets game in person?

Speaker 1 (21:59):
Like, I don't think the number exists, Andy. I mean
that's that's because because let alone, you have to go
to MetLife Stadium. I mean, I've beten the MetLife I
saw Eagles getting there, I was in the I was
in a box with Kelly and Ariel at MetLife Stadium
and it still wasn't that great in an experience. So,
you know, less it's a Jets road game, maybe you

(22:20):
could talk me into it. But yeah, that's that's tough
to watch those.

Speaker 2 (22:25):
Yeah, there's a lot of questions this week, but those
are the ones I narrowed it down to. We'll go
to where the books won and where the public one.
The books a lot of money on the unders. Here
the everyone everyone was on the under in Cleveland, Tennessee.
That goes over balt pitt under, that one goes over Tampa,
New Orleans. And then I got to put asterisk by
the Denver minus the points. This is the rigged game

(22:51):
of the week that everyone is clamoring about on social media.
I'm not going there. I actually went back and watched
the sequence. It makes sense why he kicked the field goal,
because it was like, if there happens to be one
second on the clock as the ball goes through the uprights,
do you get a chance to do What was ridiculous
was the delay of game penalty that that was. That

(23:12):
was laughable.

Speaker 1 (23:13):
That was like bumps in the locket, And and that
happens every game, you know what I mean, Like towards
the end of the game, they'll they'll hold on a
little bit longer. So I don't know if it was
quite as egregious to be Dave Portnoy calling for the
murder of Pete Carroll after the game, wasn't I didn't
like too much it was much, but yeah, like it

(23:33):
was certainly it was certainly one of the worst beats
of the season that we can't agree on.

Speaker 2 (23:38):
He was it was funny him doing his thing. Was
a little over the top. And then yeah, he crossed
the line.

Speaker 1 (23:42):
That was about yeah when you say.

Speaker 2 (23:44):
Murder, Yeah, yeah, where the where the public went? Dolphins
minus the points that was the big winner and the
Rams no sweat minus the points. Let's go to some
prop winners. A lot of winners here this week. Seed
Lamb had a big week.

Speaker 1 (23:59):
R J.

Speaker 2 (23:59):
Harvey, Jackson Smith and Jig. But I feel like we're
not even talking enough about the season that this guy
is having. Joe Burrown, T Higgins great game for them
props and stats wise in that snowy weather. Dawson Knox
had a huge game in that one. Shadoor three hundred
plus yards passing Harold Fannin. Him and Harold Fannen seem

(24:20):
to have a good connection. Tony Pollard had a big day.
Jade Daniel was actually supposed to be in the Losers.
I got that one wrong. Jalen Wright, by the way,
bummer on Ah chan a Chan got over his prop total.
I know a lot of people had him to go
over one hundred yards. He leaves the game and the
backup comes in and goes for one hundred yards. Brutal,
brutal Saints quarterback rushes for some touchdowns. ETN He's now

(24:44):
the man. I think Basil Tooton got hurt yesterday, so
that's gonna be big week. Brian Thomas Jr. Hey thanks
to Brian Thomas Junior for showing up after you nuked
our fantasy teams and were eliminated. Thanks for getting off
the schneid this late, Prick, Dk metcalf A big games,
save Flowers. Rick, it's so bad. Christian Watson, he's he's

(25:07):
having a big season there in Green Bay. The Rams
just as as a whole. And then my bff is
Michael Wilson. Can we just sit Marvin Harrison Junior for
the rest of the season. Please let Michael Wilson catch
seventeen passes for one hundred and fifty yards every week, please, Losers.
George Pickens had an off we Ashton Gent. He killed
everyone's props. Everyone was on his receiving props. Did nothing.

(25:31):
Kirk Cousins is just absolutely terrible. Chase Brown, that was
that was a big loser for me yesterday. They just
bottled him up and he could not get anything going
with the rushing. Harold Fannin not Harold fan Justin, Jefferson,
Baker Mayfield, the Colts. What do you do with the
Colts players now? And then Patrick Mahomes and Kelsey Yikes,

(25:51):
those drops, man, those drops were just.

Speaker 1 (25:54):
That's been all. Here's the thing, Andy is that's been
all year for this team and on the few things.
Like Chris Collinsworth doesn't usually say much of value, but
one of the things that he actually did say of
value last night was pointing out that the story of
the season for this Chiefs team has been their stars underperforming.
Whether it's how bad of a zip Pat Mahomes looks

(26:15):
on his ball. I mean, you know when they were
showing his highlight package, like that deep bomb that he
had completely an underthrown ball. If that was Pat Mahomes
two years ago, he's hitting him in stride for a touchdown.
All the drops for Kelsey, the fact that they can't
figure anything out at running back, the fact that the
pass rush Carl Loftus looks like he can't find his
way or pass rush his way out out of a

(26:35):
paper bag. So that's been a story of the year
for that man. You can just put him on the
losers for the year. You know, somebody had a hot
take they were going to miss the playoffs before this
season right here on this show, Andy and and he
may just be sitting along alongside you.

Speaker 2 (26:51):
Let's do it. Let's bring on Bill Crackman, crack. We
got to talk a little Monday night football, maybe NBA
proper so first, Happy Monday.

Speaker 5 (27:00):
How are you.

Speaker 2 (27:01):
How was your weekend?

Speaker 7 (27:02):
Yeah, hey, guys, how you doing. You know, I seen
that portnoy rant. I thought it was absolutely irresponsible, you
know what I mean. I grew up, you know, with
a bunch of crazy people in Philadelphia and New York gamblers.

Speaker 1 (27:19):
I know they'll they'll go on rants while they lose games.

Speaker 5 (27:22):
But one thing about as I matured and got older and.

Speaker 7 (27:26):
Of course as a professional gambler now, but I still feel,
you know, lose your money like a fucking man, crying
and screaming on the internet and telling people the murder
of the coach come on, very irresponsible. Of course we
knew to the next day he'd be having an apology,
which he did this morning.

Speaker 5 (27:43):
Half aass apology, you know what I mean.

Speaker 1 (27:45):
I think after the damage is already done, after the
after the video has gone viral, after everybody shared it.
But you nailed it. You nailed Bill. Lose your money
like f and man like like. It's the same. It's
the same thing as we're crying to the books because
my guy got injured in the first quarter, and I
want you to refund my bet. You know what, you
place the losing bet man.

Speaker 7 (28:04):
If you guys know, it takes me a lot to curse. Yes,
I do curse, but I usually don't have to curse
on shows. But I just don't like what he and
by the way, I was important and he was okay.
I liked I thought some of the stuff was funny.
And he's very generous, he's good with dogs. There's so
many good things about him. But when it comes to this,
very irresponsible. And I've seen some responses on the internet.

(28:26):
You know, people were just like this guy, says Mitch
Coffee says. Sports betters believe everything is a conspiracy. Because
of the spread. I can make up.

Speaker 5 (28:33):
Allegations on every game if I wanted to. Sorry, I
ain't finding this one. Now. I had no skin in
the game. I didn't have either side of the game.

Speaker 7 (28:42):
But let me tell you that doesn't even fall in
the top twenty bead beats I've had in my career.
So he's saying it's the worst beat of all time.
He's calling from murder, and I mean, absolutely irresponsible. It's
not funny. It's not funny, it's actually very sad. So
now this morning he said, well, I had a quarter
of a million dollars well, according to your net worth,

(29:02):
that's less than you know, three tenths of one percent,
which very good. You're betting within your bankroll. You should
have bet two percent bank But yeah, very very very
very childish, and uh, you know me, I kind of
call like, I see it, and I'm gonna also tell
Kelly that on the next show too.

Speaker 5 (29:20):
I didn't like what he did it just listen. I
watched it. I actually watched the end of the game.

Speaker 7 (29:26):
Yes, I would have been upset if I had the
other side of the game, but all right, he did.
He did hold him down for an extra second. It
could have been cold or not been cold, and it
would have been fine. The reason why you go for
the field goal, though, is because you have a chance
a hair a smidgeon to kick the field goal and
maybe run you know, some kind of a play where

(29:47):
you're kicking the ball and you come up with.

Speaker 5 (29:49):
Something where you can there's there's even though there will
only be one second left, and there wasn't even one
second because.

Speaker 7 (29:54):
It was such a long field goal, but you just
it's a chance, so there was nothing fix it, wasn't it, Like.

Speaker 5 (30:01):
That's not what happened there?

Speaker 7 (30:02):
Now, of course I always say, our eyes play tricks
on us. So if you're looking through the blinders of
you're betting the Broncos and you've laid the points and
it's easy win with a couple of minutes left up
by two score, you know, of course you're only going
to look at it from your eyes, from your perspective,

(30:24):
just like someone that bet the Raiders would look at
it from his eyes, his blinders on and say, yeah,
you're supposed to kick a field goal there like it's
it's just amazing. But in this day and age where
you have these NBA players and then some you know,
there was even some NFL players betting baseball players betting,
so any little smidgeon of anything to think something can

(30:46):
be fixed, of course everyone's gonna cry fick that they
had Denver Broncos that day. We don't need to hear
Fortnoy and his you know, six hundred million dollar networth
crying about a game. He looked like he was on
drugs or something was wrong with him. I mean, take
a shower, Dave too. Jesus Christ. He just looked crazy.

(31:06):
He just looked he looked totally crazy in his multi
zillion dollar mansion and it kind of makes fun of
a lot of people, to be honest with you in
my opinion, So.

Speaker 1 (31:17):
Uh, let's do NBA.

Speaker 2 (31:19):
We got a few, we got a couple of games
tonight here, Bill, so not aneled it.

Speaker 1 (31:28):
You nailed it, So put the words out of our mouth.
Built that's you know, gamble like a man.

Speaker 7 (31:34):
Don't gamble that if you can't gamble like a man. Yeah,
So NBA, I have an NBA prop up.

Speaker 5 (31:40):
Is that what you wanted to get to? Sorry if
I jumped through.

Speaker 2 (31:42):
Yeah, let's do NBA.

Speaker 7 (31:44):
Yeah, so I have an NBA prop up. I just
want to check on the line so that you know me.
I like to give out the uh current line.

Speaker 5 (31:50):
I have it up here.

Speaker 7 (31:51):
Anthony Edwards Minnesota points and it's just thirty three and
a half. Yeah, over thirty three and a half seems
like a like, like a high number. But this really
is a buy a low spot for Edwards, to be honest,
coming off his two worst games of the season.

Speaker 5 (32:04):
It's just a good matchup for him versus Suns tonight.

Speaker 7 (32:08):
It is a free prop for you guys, his personal
matchup and this with the Suns Dylan Brooks.

Speaker 5 (32:14):
That they just don't like each other either, I wouldn't
be surprised.

Speaker 7 (32:16):
Edwards took twenty five plus shots tonight, so I like
his over points and assist thirty three and a half.

Speaker 5 (32:23):
Looking at that line right here. Yeah, so you know,
you know, I'll tell you to it.

Speaker 7 (32:29):
By the way, another winning week, nothing crazy, but another
you know, winning week on Wader Talk.

Speaker 5 (32:33):
I don't know how many.

Speaker 7 (32:34):
Weeks I come into space and say that I pulled
off the records to NCAA Football Form one, NFL nine
and four, NBA Form one college basketball, losing week in
college basketball seven and twelve, but still a winning winning
week twenty four and eighteen last week, and NFL props
is just where it continues to roll. NFL in general
and doing good picking off some of these first halfs.

(32:56):
I even picked off a side yesterday. I thought the Saints,
we're going to get too many point there. And I
won't do a lot of NFL sides, especially day of
game unless something's been overmoved, which I kept on seeing
money coming in.

Speaker 5 (33:08):
Of course, I didn't think Camp was gonna lose that right,
but money was.

Speaker 7 (33:11):
Coming in, and I said, wow, this is a goodbye
situation here plus eight points eight and a half.

Speaker 5 (33:16):
I took eight and a half at the South Point.

Speaker 7 (33:17):
But yeah, so it's a it's been a good season though,
good NFL season, good college football seasons.

Speaker 5 (33:25):
Was rolling along, I was a little.

Speaker 7 (33:27):
Upset and out to see Notre Dame get get in.
I had had a future at twenty to one on them.
Not that that would have won, but I was I would.

Speaker 5 (33:34):
Have had a shot. I thought they were you know,
it's funny.

Speaker 7 (33:36):
I was on air on my Fox Sports radio show yesterday,
so I was looking bet ATMGM had minus twenty to one.
There was another site minus twenty five to one. Notre
Dame was the big favorite to get in there. Imagine
though a twenty five to one shot. Actually I heard
it was forty to one shot somewhere back in Jersey
laying you have to lay forty to one, lay twenty

(33:57):
five to one, late twenty to one, and then not
get in. Uh talk about corruption, but that was a bad,
a bad thing for them. Yeah, so that's what's going
on right now, and and uh, you know, just rolling along. Listen,
I don't brag about things like out there like a
lot of other people. And and I wish I had
Gianni's spunk and power, and I'm a terrible.

Speaker 1 (34:21):
Somebody has that Bill's a one on one I.

Speaker 7 (34:25):
Really I've never watched Gianny in my life till this year.
I knew who he was, never watched anything on him.
I love his energy and his power and and what
he does. It's fantastic. He he you know, he deals
with a lot of the sharp syndicates like I do
so and when I say sharp, sports betting syndicates. So
I've been there for for decades with some of the
sharpest guys in the world, Billy Walkers.

Speaker 5 (34:47):
For over ten years, I've worked.

Speaker 7 (34:50):
With Chippin Doyle, Harlebus, Vulgaris, the Pokers, the Koshers, I'm
back in the day. I've worked for a lot of
the groups and been around a lot of them and
learned a lot of things from them. I was a
gambler when I first started, just just interested in gambling
growing up where I did. They showed me and cultivated
me and showed me the right way on many things.
Maybe that's the reason why I say to portray to
gamble like a man, because I know what it is

(35:11):
to have. You know, I have six figure and I
have a lot of bets on the weekend, so I
don't even watch a lot of the final results. I
get the final results, and you know, I gamble like
a man.

Speaker 1 (35:23):
Onto the next one. Yeah, that's that's that's the nature.
That's the nature of the beast. Crack. We always love
when we get you on here on Mondays. Get your
hot takes, get your get your thoughts of what happened.
Who knew we would have spent so much time talking
about Dave Portnoy, But the comments are loving it as well.
Comment below and let us know what you thought about
the Portnoy rant where you on the bad beat as well.
But before we turn you loose, here, Crack, I'm going

(35:44):
to the game tonight. Here, I'm an Eagles fan living
in Los Angeles. I'm going to the game, and personally,
for me, I'm not a Pom Pom waiting waving fan.
I'll bet on my team the same i'll bet against them.
I can't find much in this game, So Crack, we
got Steve coming with a full breakdown so you don't
have to go crazy deep on it. But any thoughts
here on Monday night football and what you're kind of seeing,

(36:05):
because the only thing I think you could bet in
this game. If you haven't open leg teaser or something,
maybe you throw it in there with the Chargers. I
wouldn't be laying points on the road with the Eagles
in the state that they're in right now. What do
you think about this one?

Speaker 7 (36:17):
And I know people talk about and promote sell teasers.
I'm not trying to go against anyone, but I don't
know how you can play a teaser in twenty twenties
let's call it twenty twenties.

Speaker 1 (36:26):
Depending on where you bet it. Yeah, you know I
only only.

Speaker 7 (36:30):
Local guys have one, ten, one, twenty points. Yeah, I'm
looking at this line now. This line is plus two.
You know, when this line first came out, I've seen
bet NGM had three, might have been three even.

Speaker 5 (36:43):
I'm loaded in my account.

Speaker 7 (36:45):
You can't bet this game now if you're betting the underdog.
You absolutely cannot bet the plus plus two on this
game when you could have had three.

Speaker 5 (36:54):
Yeah, there I had.

Speaker 7 (36:55):
There is plus three plus three even money. When the
first came out, I kept saying, you can't bet this
game now on the dog unless you're just a DJ
and you want to take two points when you could
have took free even yesterday you could have.

Speaker 5 (37:08):
Took plus three minus a quarter. I've seen no.

Speaker 7 (37:12):
The only way to go on this game is prop bets.
I'll have a prop up later on proposition bets. I
have no or or if you could pick the maybe
maybe on the other side, maybe Eagles money line or
something like that, but I have no I have no
side in this game right now, at this current line
at all. And I just think that I know everyone

(37:34):
wants to side one. In night football time, we gotta bet.
You know, there's no reason why you have to bet something,
especially after the line move.

Speaker 5 (37:40):
You know, I just got on something like just now,
but you know I don't.

Speaker 7 (37:43):
I can't give them out the customers because it's only
unique to certain websites. So like just now, the Saints
at at south.

Speaker 5 (37:51):
Point and that's to point, but.

Speaker 7 (37:54):
Well Westgate Saints were plus three, Like okay, plus three
on the Saints look like pretty decent bet. But you
can't give out the customers because it's not fair that
they don't have that line. They have to go buy
it somewhere, you know. So I'll bet a lot of stuff.
What I'm trying to say is I'll bet a lot
of stuff early in the week NFL sides here in Vegas,
and when I can get take advantage of that softer market,

(38:16):
softer line. Perfect example, Westgates right now they max best
three k, where during the week you.

Speaker 5 (38:21):
Can bet up the fifty thousand. The day of the
game you can.

Speaker 7 (38:24):
Matter of fact, that toker John Murray the day said
if someone comes up to the counter with six figures,
they'll take the bet.

Speaker 5 (38:29):
That's the difference from a Monday compared to close to
game time.

Speaker 7 (38:33):
So whereas a prop bet, I can't even bet it
right now. But if I go to if I go,
you know, next weekend, I can bet. I can bet
a thousand dollars. That's the max you can bet a thousand.

Speaker 5 (38:43):
On a prop.

Speaker 7 (38:43):
You can bet two hundred thousand on an NFL game.
That's why props are beatable, the beatable thing. It's a
smaller market. People don't look at it. Player props is
the way to go.

Speaker 1 (38:52):
Love it. Yeah, I mean you're talking to the guy
who he was doing the prop bets here on wager
Talk when people were just kind of like what they
prop bets are a thing. So you're you're talking to
to two people who I'm yeah, you know, you know
what's you know what's fun? Bill winning bets, that's fun.

Speaker 5 (39:15):
I don't give an f what happens there any team
member game.

Speaker 1 (39:19):
I don't care about put stickers, put stickers over the
names of teams. Dude, Yeah, it's it's I'm agnostic to
all of it. Well, Bill always a pleasure buddy, bets
of luck tonight you can check him out WT dot
buzz slash crack. That's Bill Krackenberger right there, Andy, and
we get him legend right here on the show every
single Monday beautiful.

Speaker 2 (39:40):
I remember when I first started doing props, I had
two people actually tell me that they're not real bets. Yeah,
that was actually said to me, props aren't real bets.
My times have changed so exactly. Uh, we're gonna do
all around the world. After we talked to Steve Merrill
and then Dan's got a new segment l F G
or W, we will debut that. I have one play

(40:03):
that is up for Monday Night Football, and I absolutely
love it. Primetime props have been insanely good this year
twenty four and twelve on primetime games. I do not
understand why the primetime plays have been so profitable and
so good, but I'm not going to argue it, so
partner up with us. We had a really really big
weekend overall in units. We had a winning record in

(40:23):
football yesterday, but we did lose our big one, so
I'm glad we added a bunch of those smaller ones.
But WT dot Bus slash al it's the best bet
on the board in my humble opinion. But we've been
doing really really well in December and November. We closed
out a really big month, so we had a nice
sprint to the end of twenty twenty five. So join
us Monday night football best bet is on the board.

(40:46):
Let's get a full breakdown with Steve Merrill here, Steve,
Happy Monday, how are you? How was your weekend?

Speaker 5 (40:53):
Great?

Speaker 8 (40:54):
NFL swept the board yesterday three and no sweep and
Fading the Public And you know, we've been talking about
it all season and it's been working consistently, like just constantly,
like sixty sixty percent. And last week was interesting because
Fade the Public went three and one in my video,
but all four teams won outright, but only one of
the four covered. And I talked about how those that

(41:14):
the extra line value with fade in the public is
why you win long term, especially late in the season
in December, and looky here yesterday four to no fade
in the public. So seven and won the last two weeks,
and two of those were half point covers, going against
the Bears, a big public dog, and those Broncos who
won by seven. Of course, as we've discussed, lane seven
and a half, So it's now sixty three percent of

(41:35):
the season, thirty nine and twenty three. And that video,
of course is free here every weekend on wager Talk TV.
But my point is it works long term because you
get extra line value, especially against ugly teams in December,
and long term if you play these out of the
playoff contention teams like the Saints yesterday, right, they do well.
So just something to keep in mind. Doesn't apply to
night because we have two playoff caliber teams. I think

(41:56):
Dan's Eagles are playoff caliber. Still, the Chiefs made not
hear that. Here's the one that's interesting though, guys. The
look ahead line right now for the game next week
against the Chargers is four and a half. The Chiefs
are a four and a half point home favorite next
week against the Chargers. Last night was their spot and
they still came up short. I will be surprised unless

(42:17):
Herbert gets hurt worse tonight with that left hand injury,
that that line is four and a half by next week.

Speaker 1 (42:23):
Yeah, agreed.

Speaker 2 (42:24):
Well, let's break down this game, Steve. We got the Chargers,
we got the Eagles. Philly's like minus two right now
over under forty two. You can even find it a
little bit lower here. What's your breakdown on this game?

Speaker 8 (42:37):
Yeah, forty one is the key number with totals. There's
about a three to four percent chance this game lands
exactly forty one. And I bring that up because we
are seeing forty one and a half's forty two's out there,
so there's a little bit of a line value still
with the under here. I'm gonna take it this step
further and look at the team total under for the Eagles.
And I did a standalone free play video earlier in
the week, and I mentioned this approach because we didn't

(42:57):
know for sure if Herbert was going or not. He
was listed is probable or questionable? Actually now he's probable.
He did practice Thursday and Friday, limited practice like seven
on seven drills. His left hand is fractured. Is non
throwing him, but they're talking about going to more shotgun formations.
They don't want them under center with that top hand
taking the impact of every snap. So you know, a
lot of uncertainty there with the Chargers. It would help

(43:19):
the under if he is banged up, but I think
he's okay to go Joe alt out of course for
the Chargers. Eagles banged up as well, so I think
the under makes sense in this game. I would lean
under forty one and a half forty two, but I'm
gonna go a little deeper with the team total under
for the Eagles under twenty one and a half. Charger
team total is twenty and a half. Eagles team total
is twenty one and a half. Obviously, twenty one is

(43:40):
a very key number. Good chance of the team scores
twenty one points in the NFL, or any football game
for that matter, the way scoring takes place, it's three
touchdowns in an extra point. And also, if you look
at the Eagles recently this season, they're only averaging twenty
two and a half points a game. That's against the
schedule that allows twenty four. The Chargers give up just
twenty one point a game against teams that are that
average about twenty one, so Chargers are slightly above average

(44:03):
defense five point two yards per play against teams at
average five point four. Eagles average five to five against
teams allow five to seven. So the Eagles points yards
per play. They're a below average offensive team, and you
can make an argument they've been even worse here the
last couple of months. They started the season off, scoring
twenty four or more in three of their first four games.
They have skipped since scored twenty one or less in

(44:24):
six of their last eight games, includes just fifteen points
last Friday against the Bears defense, who's one of the
worst in the league. I don't think this is necessarily
a bounce back spot for Philly after back to back losses,
but I do respect their pedigree defending Super Bowl champs
back against the wall, So I'm not gonna look at
the side. I'm look at the total I would lean under,
but I think the team total under for the Eagles

(44:44):
under twenty one and a half makes a lot of sense.
And something I did not mention in the video this
week in which I will throw out here is the
Chargers do make an excellent teaser, and I get that
teaser rods would become skewed. That's why I don't release
them to clients anymore. You can't be laying minus one
thirty minus one forty. But if you can at that
minus one twenty five or less price on a six
point two team, teaser, Chargers look like an excellent teaser

(45:05):
tonight to two to two and a half, take that
up to eight, eight and a half. You're getting all
those key numbers three, four, six, seven working for you.
And what should also be a low scoring game once again,
which makes teasers more valuable. And of course you got
to tie that up with something next Sunday. Several games
are in those key teaser categories, but the one that
kind of jumps out to me early is Chicago at
home minus seven and a half against Cleveland, getting them

(45:27):
down to minus one and a half. My guess is
the public will probably be in Chicago. Cleveland might be
one of those fade the public plays, But as I mentioned,
a lot of times, there are one point half point covers.
Getting Chicago down to one and a half puts some
of the basic straight up point situation off the loss.
That looks like a pretty good two team teaser in
the NFL.

Speaker 1 (45:43):
Yeah, Andy, just one thing. I'll also add in on
what Steve's talking about being around that team total. It's
been four straight games that my Philadelphia Eagles have scored
twenty two or fewer points. So it's been a good
bet just taking the Eagles team total under. And now
they're facing a defense that four out of their last
five games, as Steve alluded to there, has allowed twenty
one or fewer points. So I would love to call

(46:05):
plays tonight. Trust me, it would be a hell of
a lot better than whatever that obvious.

Speaker 5 (46:09):
Though.

Speaker 8 (46:10):
My concern when I did the video was it seems
too obvious for the exact reasons you mentioned.

Speaker 1 (46:15):
It does it?

Speaker 8 (46:16):
But then again, the Chiefs under last night seemed too obvious,
so I stayed away from it. Focus spot for the
other Super Bowl team, and we saw how bad they're
You just can't fix bad offense right overnight.

Speaker 1 (46:26):
And that's the thing. Steve is sure it feels obvious,
and yes, all of these expectations are built into the
number that it's sitting at right now. However, do we
just magically think, oh, the Eagles are finally going to
add a bunch of pre snap motion. Do we just
magically think, oh, this team is finally going to figure
out the run game without their best tackle playing. So yes,

(46:47):
it seems too obvious, but obvious bets when sometimes Steve
and on a game like tonight, when people just want action,
it's Monday night football at standalone, you have to try
and make an informed wager. And I don't think that's
on the side or the straight up total. I think
diving in a little bit deeper and iso wing on
on just one team in handicapping that team. I like
that play. Unfortunately, for me as an Eagles fan, I'd

(47:09):
hopefully like to see a couple more points since I'll
be there at the game. But if I cash you
bet with Steve Merrill, it's still hedge.

Speaker 8 (47:16):
It's a great emotional hedge, Dan, because you could actually
win that that and still the Eagles could win the game.
But if you win that, but if you win that bet,
they might lose it. Yeah, you get where I'm going.

Speaker 1 (47:26):
Thirteen and let's get a thirteen to ten win. There
we go.

Speaker 2 (47:30):
No, no, all right, let's go to the NBA Steve
Sons and Timberwolves. Devin Booker looks like he's still out.
Anthony Edwards has had a couple of bad games in
a row. We've got chat here in the chat about
nas Reed having big games. I was looking at his
props earlier. The Suns team really interesting start to the season.

(47:53):
It's a completely different attitude with this team. Dylan Brooks
has come in and just made him this feisty, annoying
team to have to play like. This has to be
one of the toughest teams to play against because they're
kind of dirty. Dylan Brooks has always yappened and in
people's faces. Interesting game here tonight. How do you break
down the Suns and the Timberwolves.

Speaker 8 (48:15):
Three NBA games on the board tonight on Monday, and
this will be a good one. I believe this is
the national TV game, kind of there in the middle.
And this is of course Phoenix at Minnesota time chain
seven forty easter. I think this is like a Peacock game.
I'd have to check, but it's an interesting matchup because
the Suns are short handed without Booker. And I was
on wager Talk Today a week ago on Monday breaking
down the Lakers and Suns, and I like the Suns

(48:35):
as the best bet. Used it for my clients as well.
And they want to outright by seventeen points is a
five point dog. But if you told me Devin Booker
was going to be injured ten minutes into the game
with a growing injury, I'm not sure I would have
used that play. But as we always see, you play
the shorthanded team, especially on short notice when the other
team isn't prepared, and magic happens. By the way, the
Suns are zero and three straight up. There are other
three games on each side, including the game this past

(48:59):
Friday Houston when they did not play with Booker. They
lost that game by nineteen and failed to cover as
a nine point dog. One thing that's concerned about Phoenix
is their defense. They've given up forty eight percent shooting
or worse than five of their last six games. So
if they do win this one tonight, probably going to
have to get up and over that total, which is
currently sitting around to twenty four. And by the way,
as I do this game live here on wager Talk

(49:20):
today at twelve fifty eastern, several books have just taken
this game off the board, so maybe I should pause
in my analysis. I'm looking at the Odds logic screen
right now, and it is lighting up red, which means
stop do your research. Devin Booker. I'm seeing listed is out.
We'll dig a little bit deeper when you're watching this
an hour later. Maybe he's in. I'm not expecting Booker
to play either way, though I like the Suns in

(49:43):
this one. I was going to give out some props
without Booker out there and say, guys it might step
up in his absence, or some secondary guys like Dylan Brooks,
who by the way, averages twenty two and a half
points a game. He'd be leading the lead. He'd be
leading a lot of teams and scoring behind Booker's twenty
five or Grayson Allen at seventeen points a game. Both
of those guys are playing over thirty one minutes a game.
Even if Booker magically appears, which he's not supposed to.

(50:05):
But once again, right around one o'clock Eastern, here I
see this game lighten up, so we'll see what's going on.
I think there's some sneaky player prop opportunities with Grayson
Allen and here's why. As I mentioned, he's going to
probably be the other big scorer with Dylan Brooks if
Booker is out. Even if he's limited. But if you
look at the game against Houston, Dylan Brooks came in
had thirty one minutes twenty three points, ten for twenty
four shooting, So yes, there's some more upside with his over.

(50:27):
But what about Grayson Allen. He played twenty six minutes
only at nine points, but he was only three for
twelve shooting only one for seven. Brooks and Allen combined
were one for eleven from three point range in that
game on Friday. So I like the Suns to bounce
back here against Minnesota, and I think some Brooks Grayson
Allen props over scoring wise could be worth a look also,
But hey, do your due diligence as I'm talking about

(50:49):
this game right now. Oh, I see what it is. Boom.
Gotta love odds Logic And by the way, if you'd
like a seven day free trial to oddslogic dot com,
it's on my page Steve merrilwadger Talk dot com and
you'll see then in then re update just popped Anthony
Edwards illness questionable to play to that against Phoenix today
And for those of you watching my video here a
wager Talk TV.

Speaker 2 (51:12):
NBA from the afternoon and now we're already getting questionable.

Speaker 8 (51:18):
Seriously, guys like this a one hour show, Like if
I did this breakdown two minutes ago, none of this
would have popped. It's unreal, zero gross.

Speaker 1 (51:25):
That's why we love the crack Man rants. We wouldn't
have gotten that. Oh if crack Man didn't rent.

Speaker 8 (51:30):
If Horton hadn't said what he said, then the live
viewers and the viewers of the videos here a wager
Talk TV wouldn't have an up to date video and
I'd be hung to dry. I wasn't gonna talk about
Anthony Edwards. Luckily this line is dropping that by the way,
it went from ten was ten, now it's nine, Now
it's eight and a half. You almost like Minnesota. Edwards
doesn't play right because you can't lay eight and a
half without Edwards out there. We know how this turns out. Now.

(51:52):
I still like Phoenix in this spot, and I would
actually like it better without Edwards. I think Phoenix is
in a focused spot and they're not gonna have their
best player either. Total is really dropping, guys down to
two twenty three. Hard to disagree with the two best
offensive players out for each team, but as we know,
weird things happen in the NBA. All these guys can
score in their sleep.

Speaker 2 (52:12):
Steve. We got tons of Bowl games coming up, and
you're going to do a bunch of bull breakdown videos.
I think you pretty much cover every single Bowl game.
So yeah, what can people expect her on the YouTube
channel coming up?

Speaker 8 (52:24):
So I'm going to do every single Bowl game, just
like I did for every NCAA tournament game. We'll have
that on a daily basis, so you make sure you
click subscribe and you click that bell, you'll get an
instant alert. And by the way, this past week I
gave you all nine championship College Football Conference Championship games
and with the NFL free play videos, my fade the Public,
the Prime Game which is now eleven and three, that
Thursday Night winner on the Lions, and also my free

(52:46):
play of the Day Sunday, I realized I gave you
twelve the fourteen NFL games for free. So that's right,
twenty one of the twenty three football games last week
I gave everyone for free. Now people might be thinking,
what are you doing, Steve? Why should we go to
your page? You get your best bets. Well, that's exactly
why you should get my best bets because most of
those games twenty one out of the twenty three, only
a few of those maybe were official plays. Most of

(53:06):
them are one percent tv lians lights, opinions. I'm basically
pulling back the curtain and let you know how I'm
handicapping all the games. Give you my liens. But if
you want the official best bets, the strong four percent
best bets, same plays that swept the board in the
NFL three to oh yesterday on Sunday, number one in
units won over the past year, check out my page
Steve merrillwager talk dot com. Of course you can get
there quick with WT dot buzz slash sm But I've

(53:28):
got another buzz code for you for this week, and
I haven't released it anywhere first time, Right here, right now,
one year all access all Sports for about a dollar
a play, over an eight hundred dollars instant discount. When
you go to WT dot buzz slash Steve three six
five wt Dot WT Dot buzz slash Steve three sixty
five you see it on the screen. Couldn't be any simpler.

(53:51):
This is the absolute lowest price I've ever offered for
one year all access. It'll get every personal best bet
I'm using every day for the next three hundred and
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on January first, do it right now. Get the next
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pro for about a dollar play wt dot bus last
Steve three to six y five exclusive debut right here,

(54:13):
right now.

Speaker 2 (54:14):
All right, Steve, thanks very much, excited for all these
Bowl videos. Nobody works harder at the free videos than you,
so thank you very much. Don't forget grab that three
hundred and sixty five day pass for Steve Merrill. All right,
let's do some free plays Dan, and then let's do
WTTF or LFG. Actually, let's let's do wtf LFG first. Okay,

(54:35):
this is a concept. You explain it and then we'll
get the live chat involved with this one.

Speaker 1 (54:40):
So here's the idea behind it is. You know, I
just coming on here on the show and just asking
some questions. That's not going to get it done. What
do people want? Andy, They want picks, they want thoughts,
they want opinions. So each and every day I will
come with a bet. Side might be a prop, might
be a total, It could be in lacrosse, it could
be in football, could be any sport. But the thought

(55:01):
is is I'm gonna try and get Andy to be
wooed on potentially betting this play with me. It's a
play that I will bet myself, but won't just throw
them out here. We'll track them on the show as well. Here.
But LFG or WTF We already used our one F
word of the show, so I won't spell out what
those mean. But LFG, let F and go or WTF

(55:24):
what the F? And the thought process is LFG is
Andy and the chat riding with me on this play
or is it just what the F? What do you think?
And Dan, why are you doing this? Unfortunately, Krack used
our F word, so so Andy. The prop for us
today that I am betting I think the Eagles will
win tonight. I'm not so sure. I'm kind of with
the chat here. You can't bet the side, but a

(55:47):
prop that I found in this game that I like
quite a bit, Andy, and I have bet my own money.
Jalen hurts over thirty and a half rushing yards. The
thought process here for me is there's been all this
talk this week, this past week about Jalen's unwillingness to run,
and Hurts even in a presser earlier this week, he

(56:07):
addressed it and he said, where do we come to
that conclusion? And typically when Jalen speaks out in press conferences,
he has a bit of a chip on his shoulder,
so I think he might tuck it a little bit
more than he typically would. I also expect some design
runs simply because you're without Lane Johnson. You're going to
try and have to change things up here in the

(56:28):
run game. And for what it's worth, Andy Hurts isn't
wrong saying how do we come to that conclusion? He
has three hundred and thirty rushing yards as a quarterback
eighty four attempts this season, so it's been dropped with
less regularity, but those numbers put him at an average
of around six rush attempts per game. He's lined it
around seven and a half this game, and it's heavily

(56:49):
juiced to the over Chargers. Solid defense. Don't get me wrong, Andy,
but when they've seen mobile quarterbacks, there's been a susceptibility
to allowing some rush yards. Pat Mahomes forty seven yards
on six attempts, thirty three yards on eight attempts for
bow Nicks fifty four yards on ten attempts for Jackson Dart. Finally,

(57:10):
Jayden Daniels thirty nine yards. That's the fewest on eight
different attempts. This rush prop is just feeling a little
too low for me with a guy with his chip
on his shoulder. Jalen Hurts over thirty and a half
rush yards Andy LFG or WTF you're tailing or fading?

Speaker 2 (57:28):
I'll go LFG with you on this one. With Lane
Johnson Aine, Yeah, yeah, with Lane Johnson out there could
be some pass protection breakdowns. And also Saquon Barkley has
been complete ass this year, and you just you're not
getting those explosive runs. I'm serious, you're not getting those
explosively to run is that eat up huge chunks of yards?

(57:49):
And Jalen Hurts is he's just so sneaky at Oh,
it's third and eight, the pocket opens up and all
of a sudden there's a seventeen yard run. He does
it in chunks, not volume. So yeah, I think I'll
ride with you. I don't know if it's gonna make
it's not gonna make the.

Speaker 1 (58:04):
Client card, but yeah, fair well, we had we had
one LFG and a bunch of wtfs in here. So
comment below after the video say Dan LFG or WTF.
Everybody is fading this one, Andy, which yeah, actually makes
me feel a little bit better about this one. Jalen Hurts,
I'm against the Chans, I'm against the world over thirty

(58:25):
and a half roshyards boots on the ground. And this
is also a reason Andy, we got your uh your
all around the world. I like the fact that people
think that Jalen Hurts isn't running because the actual facts
have just been different. You know, has it been as successful, No,
but the attempts have been there. H So so that's

(58:45):
the thoughts there. Comment below let us know Dan LFG
or WTF and we'll track them. Andy.

Speaker 2 (58:52):
All right, let's go all around the world, give out
some free plays and then we can get out of here.
Thank you so much, guys, make sure you hit the
like button and again. Monday Night Football Best Bet is up.
Only one best prop on the board. Twenty four and
twelve primetime run. Here's some free plays. That is not
the right one, damn.

Speaker 1 (59:12):
Oh yeah, Panthers in forty nine ers, Sandy. That's that's
a big, big game here, tonight, buddy, give me one second. Sorry,
they already played. Yeah, all right, it's a good game. Though,
it's a good Jalen Hurts definitely didn't go over his
rushing in that game. Here you go, Andy, Oh yeah,
here we go Eagles.

Speaker 2 (59:27):
Chargers. Take a look at Dallas Goddard under three and
a half on his receptions the two receptions in each
of the last three games. Jalen hurts accuracy has not
been going there. Eleven targets, six catches in those games,
and the Chargers are pretty good against tight ends. E'vecept
less than four catches per game to tight ends, So
Dallas got her under. Looking at Darren Fox over twenty
three and a half points. I've been watching the Spurs

(59:49):
quite a bit recently. I don't know why this guy
is such a ballhog, but we can take advantage of that.
The Pelicans give up one hundred and twenty three points
per game. He's gone over this in ten out of
eleven games. He's shooting the ball eighteen times from the field,
but he is shooting fifty percent. I'll give him that.
So Daron Fox over twenty three and a half. And
then this comes from the free picks. Page over at

(01:00:11):
wager Talk. You guys looking for some free picks for tonight.
This one comes from Ralph Michaels Wild and the Crack
and the Wild money Line at minus one thirty. The
Wild are on a twelve and five run. They have
lost back to back games, but they're four and one
after a loss and they've only allowed four goals in
those wins after a loss. Me while the Kraken have
dropped five in a row and they are one for

(01:00:31):
their last nineteen power plays successful conversion rate, so not
getting goals on the power play. Take a look at
the Wild on the money line. All right, let's gonna
do it for us. Thank you so much for watching, guys.
We're gonna do it again tomorrow, Dan, thank you so
much for joining us. Please ht the like button on
your way out. Make sure you're subscribed to the channel.
Quarter of a million people cannot be wrong. We got

(01:00:53):
to be doing something right over here. So good luck
onto your plays. Make sure we bet responsibly. See everying
tomorrow's same time, same play on wage You talk today,
You luck on your bets. Take care

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