WagerTalk Today | Monday Best Bets! | NFL MNF and NBA Picks & Predictions | 12/22 - WagerTalk: Sports Betting Tips

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
You are.

Speaker 2 (00:02):
Welcome to wager Talk Today, the gold state of the
sports betting shows, where we talk, to talk and walk
the walk. It's Monday, kicking off the week, wrapping up
twenty twenty five.

Speaker 3 (00:12):
Here we got a strong mix.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Of football and basketball, joined by my co host Dan Alexander.
He's gonna take you through today's loaded lineup. Dan, who
we got today? What are we talking about?

Speaker 4 (00:24):
It's a loaded lineup every day here, Andy on wager
Talk Today.

Speaker 5 (00:28):
Let's be real and happy.

Speaker 4 (00:30):
Happy Holidays, of course, Happy Christmas week here, and we
got Christmas Eve coming up on Wednesday, no show, then
no show on Christmas. We are doing a show, however
on Andy's Birthday Eve, which is today. Baby, We'll get
into that. But Andy, what we have coming up here
on the show? Yanni the Greek Gambler, gonna kick it off,
Gonna go through the steam report. Interesting to see is

(00:51):
there many? Is there much action coming in on Week
seventeen in the NFL. But we got college football playoffs
to circle back to Texas A and m lost, So
I'm sure Yanni has some thoughts on that one.

Speaker 5 (01:04):
Regarding some power ranking action.

Speaker 4 (01:06):
Crack Man, you know is gonna be here, Bill Krackenberger,
He's gonna be giving us a prop. He's gonna be
talking a little a Monday Night football, little college football
playoffs as well, and we'll set an over under a
two and a half minutes of Rant's.

Speaker 5 (01:21):
Hammer the over.

Speaker 4 (01:22):
That's the sharp money coming from our man, Bill Krackenberger
and Steve Merril gonna round things out for us. He's
gonna break down the entire Monday Night football game. He's
also gonna give you a look in an NBA doubleheader
Magic Verst Warriors, Pistons, Trailblazers.

Speaker 6 (01:35):
All along the way.

Speaker 4 (01:36):
Andy, Free plays coming from you and yours truly. Andy's
gonna take you all around the world. He's gonna have
a same game parlay. We're gonna react to what we saw,
and I am going to say, WTF or LFG, we
got a prop coming your way in Monday Night football
for that one, Andy, We're loaded, brother, we gotta get
into it.

Speaker 5 (01:54):
Baby.

Speaker 2 (01:56):
Yeah, let's bring on Yannie. Let's talk about what happened
over the weekend. See if we got much action happy Monday. Yeah,
I do hope things are going well. Let's revisit college
football playoffs and some of your power rankings so far?

Speaker 3 (02:09):
Yeah, so far? Takeaways?

Speaker 2 (02:11):
How did your power rankings kind of match up to
what we saw?

Speaker 3 (02:14):
Points, spreads, totals. What'd you see?

Speaker 6 (02:17):
So far?

Speaker 7 (02:17):
So good? Last three days, nine and five NFL college
football combined turned a nice profit. I'll take it. And
that's coming off that Sunday night football loser that Baltimore
let us down. But we got the best of it.
That's the bottom line, Like you can't go out there
and do their job. I got us down at minus
two and a half, three and even money, and I said,
it's not going to close it that number. The sharpest

(02:39):
shops had it up to four. So we got the
best of it. But sometimes it just doesn't work out
that way. But overall, like I said, I'll take the
nine and five over the last couple of days, and
it's like I expected, we're able to get take advantage
of these rankings and ratings that are just off, that
are based on nothing more than the records. And there

(03:01):
were really no surprises in the early playoff action. I mean,
you knew Mississippi was expected the role. You knew Oregon
was expected the role. It was just a question of
will they cover those big numbers, and Mississippi did. Oregon
did it with James Madison getting that back door, scoring
fourteen fourth quarter points to get there, and that that's

(03:22):
the issue you gotta face when you're laying that heavy
chalk early on. Just like in the March Madness, you
know one's going to be sixteen, but how many points?
The spread becomes the great equalizer, and we saw that.
We saw Miami the better team than Texas A and
m They were the better team on paper, and they
proved to be the better team on the field by

(03:43):
getting the W. My power rankings had Miami above Texas
A and m the posters had it the other way around.

Speaker 1 (03:50):
So we were able.

Speaker 7 (03:51):
To take advantage of that. And I like that. I
saw the Alabama and Oklahoma game. We steamed that over.
I love that over, bet that over. But my numbers
had Alabama above Oklahoma. Okay, so I was prepared to
bet Alabama, but the first one of the first moves
that came in was on Oklahoma over Alabama. In fact,

(04:14):
that's why they kept getting hit and went off as
the favorite. But my numbers showed the opposite that Alabama
should have been the favorite. But I respected the market
and passed on it, but it was nice to see
it Alabama go out there and get that W and
it worked out. So so far, so good in the bowls.
The real action comes over these next two weeks, that's

(04:34):
for sure, and with the playoffs. And again today i'll
share with you guys most already bought it. I gave
it out last week. It was the fin Dollar Tuesday
and it was Washington State plus four. I think it
was good to three and a half or three. I
said in the pick. I didn't think it was going
to last that long. And as of today, Utah State's

(04:57):
now one point favorite. So again we did our job
up there with Washington State. We have four percent on
Washington State plus four. They should you know, they should win.
They should cover that spread. But we placed a good bet,
but it doesn't mean they're going to go out there
and get me the W. That's the flip side of
this coin that we deal with every single day, where
you could place good bets, but they still got to

(05:19):
go out there and perform. So talking about the bowl
games today, there's only one. It's Washington State and Utah State.
Me and my subscribers are on the Washington State side,
but in a much better number than it sits right now.
Action looking at the back end, good two way action
on the side and the total. So it's been all

(05:39):
wise guy money that's forced the adjustment, meaning the betting
public's betting this one pretty much fifty to fifty even
a little more. Utah State, but wise guys on Washington
State really pushed this number down from where it was.
Tomorrow we got three three college football games, and like

(06:01):
I said, this is where it really starts to take
off tomorrow over Christmas, Christmas Day, and looking at today's
action already, I mean tomorrow's action. Already, they're betting the
over in Toledo and Louisville, even though that's totals dropping.
They're betting who else the UNLV Yeah, UNLV one sided,

(06:22):
they're betting UNLV and you see that line moved up
as well. So, uh, tomorrow's action already seeing a little bit.
And again those playoff games real quickly anything jump out, No,
not really. I mean, you know, Miami's gonna get the
money against Ohio State for sure because they're getting so

(06:43):
many points. Oregon's gonna get the money. I'm tugging recreational
betters against Texas Tech, and I wouldn't be surprised if
Alabama and Indiana kind of gets good two way action
on those, and the same with Mississippi Georgia. Like those
that are a round that touchdown, I think you see
good two way action. But Oregon should be one sided,

(07:04):
Miami getting almost double digital be one sided. So it'd
be interesting to see how it shapes out between now
in those games.

Speaker 2 (07:11):
Just as BAM a team total is nineteen and a
half versus Indy, that seems low.

Speaker 7 (07:17):
It does, especially if they're coming off points as they
did in that last game. Exactly.

Speaker 2 (07:23):
Really, I mean, my Hoosiers have they've got a legit defense,
but I would have boy, I would have bet they
would have put that at twenty two and a half
twenty three and a half. Getting that below that twenty
mark is pretty pretty interesting.

Speaker 7 (07:36):
And real quickly, well you gotta pay. What happens with
college football is a perfect exampoint d tomorrow with Louisville
and Toledo. Okay, what's the sharp side? Louisville opens eight
and a half, goes down to six, and then it
gets bet up to seven seven juice, So what is it?
Is it is Louisville the sharp side at minus six
and a half seven? Or is you know, uh, what's

(07:58):
it called the others taking the doll with Toledo at
plus eight? Is that the right side? That's the beauty
of these Bowl games. When lines are up that long,
you're going to see two AA action on most of these.
So don't let it drive you crazy.

Speaker 2 (08:11):
The sharp side is obviously seven, exactly, it's just over
seven the under seven.

Speaker 7 (08:19):
That's what's the sharp style. It's like saying, what's the winner?
What's the winner? Who knows what the winner is?

Speaker 3 (08:27):
Anything?

Speaker 2 (08:28):
But do you have any takeaways from this NFL? I mean, seriously,
what can we learn at this point from NFL? Guys
are getting hurt in game? That is just it's at
a rate that I just.

Speaker 3 (08:40):
Don't remember, you know.

Speaker 2 (08:42):
I mean, look just look at the primetime games. We
lost Jordan Love on Saturday, We lost Lamar last night.
And who do we lose? Who do we lose on Sunday?
We lost somebody?

Speaker 5 (08:55):
Who do we lose New England game?

Speaker 4 (08:58):
They Marcus in the Eagles game as well? There you
go back up quarterback.

Speaker 2 (09:05):
Yeah, there you go, yeah yeah yeah, so yeah, so yeah,
what can you do with these spreads.

Speaker 7 (09:10):
Here here's what sticks out to me and football right now,
Like we know who's good who's not. You just look
at the most easiest ways. Don't even look at the record,
go down and look at the point differential, and you'll
see who's real who's not. Like perfect examples. You look
at Chicago, there are an eleven and four football team

(09:31):
with a plus thirty three point differential, Like that tells
you right there. That tells you right there. They're eleven
and four with a thirty three point differential, and you
compare them to a New England who's at one hundred
plus one hundred and ten point differential, the Seahawks one
hundred and sixty four point differential, the Rams one hundred
and fifty eight point differential, Like those are the legit teams.

(09:55):
Those are the legit teams. That's what tells you so much,
that point differential, because that's what use with Pythagorean wins
and losses, where based on the point scored points allowed,
what should their record really be compared to.

Speaker 1 (10:09):
What it is?

Speaker 7 (10:10):
And we're at that point now where we have enough
data where we could conclude New England's legit Buffalo's legit. Pittsburgh,
Baltimore not so much. Jacksonville looks legit. Houston even looks legit.
Denver looks legit. Like those teams, Chargers, they all look legit. Eagles,
I don't know, Chicago, I don't know, Lions, Packers, I'm

(10:35):
not too sure. Carolina, Tampa like that. They're all negative
point differential in that division other than the Rams the Seahawks.
Like that's the elite in the the NFC and in
the AFC. It's like New England, Buffalo, Jacksonville. Like, we're
now down to only a few teams that actually are

(10:57):
the cream of the crop. And it's just the matter
of in a sixty minute football game, we'll random this
stick its head out and have these teams lose, you
know what I mean, Because in the NFL, we don't
have seven games series for the cream the rise at
the top. Otherwise, you know what you're looking at, Like,
there's the parody just isn't there. It's just not there.
That's the bottom line. Like we expect parody in the NFL,

(11:20):
but I just don't see it this season.

Speaker 2 (11:23):
That's an interesting take, because yeah, that's kind of what
the nfls wanted to be and you know, they wanted
to be this you know, parody team, and for so
long the NBA was the opposite. They were like, we
want to go around stars. Now you're seeing the opposite,
the opposite NFL. It's like there's there's the halves and
the haves nots, and the NBA. You got a different
team winning the championship damn near every every single year.

(11:46):
So we got some interesting betting stats that are coming up.

Speaker 3 (11:49):
Here a little bit later here.

Speaker 2 (11:50):
Did did you have anything for Yanni before we let
him go?

Speaker 1 (11:53):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (11:53):
I guess, just really Yannie, anything that we got in
on the hardwood. NBA College basketballs forward. I know people
always want to hear that on a Monday.

Speaker 7 (12:02):
Yeah, let's give them a little bit of gold because
the steam sheet what's it called, probably won't go out
up to day. We got a new system in the
back end with wager talk that we're all getting a
little accustomed to. So till that gets figured out, so
let me share it right here with you guys. NBA
five nineteen over, two forty eight and a half, two

(12:23):
forty nine and a half. You told Denver that's gone,
that's up to two fifty and a half. It opened
as low as two forty four and a half, so
be careful there to five twenty four Golden State minus
the five. I actually released that two subscribers as a premium.
I do like the Golden State side. I thought that
line should be closer to seven. A little couple college
basketball games for you since my man Dan antsk eight

(12:44):
oh three Sacred Heart plus ten and a half, eight
twelve cal Santa Barbara minus the nine, eight thirty three
Davidson plus seventeen and a half, eight thirteen Sienna plus
the twenty four and a half, eight forty five Sacramento
State plus eleven twenty seventh Illinois minus eight and a half,
eight fifty Utech plus four and a half. I promise

(13:05):
you there's a lot of gold in there, because any
of my premiums will come out of that. Slay the
games that I just reached right off to you guys.

Speaker 2 (13:14):
All right, Yanni, Yes, and that is a we're gonna
get to that, but yes. So we are doing some
huge updates on the back end of our website. It'll
make things a lot easier for us. Everything will be streamlined.
But for today and maybe tomorrow. Things may run just
to touch slow, but it shouldn't really affect any of
our plays or anything.

Speaker 3 (13:31):
We just got to be a little bit.

Speaker 7 (13:32):
More delayed, thank you, Mitchel.

Speaker 2 (13:35):
Uh yeah, so, Yanni, uh he is the best in
the business.

Speaker 3 (13:39):
That's why we have him on for a reason. So,
uh what what?

Speaker 2 (13:43):
What's what's the forecast look like for this week?

Speaker 3 (13:45):
Yanni? You're gonna be big college football NFL.

Speaker 7 (13:48):
I already have up, bro. Honestly, I have up the
new the Christmas Eve package with uh fired already a play.
These lines aren't going to be up there long, guys,
I already have for Friday. I put that up last
week for Friday the twenty sixth, Like if I see
a play, a good bet, I'm throwing it out there.
So hopefully you're already jumped on board with me for
the pole season or over the next thirty days at least,

(14:11):
because there's gonna be a lot of opportunities in NFL
in college football, and don't forget NBA College basketball and
UFC's returning before you know it as well, So a
lot going on. Monday Night package will be up within
the next sixty minutes. As you guys know, I wait
to confirm the primetime games. We've been on fire with

(14:31):
those that'll be up also, and of course weekend NFL
college football ahead. Just a busy time, man. And if
you're jumping on long term, I think they're even giving
you the blackjack course still. So yeah, jump on board,
let's make some money. Twenty twenty six. It's gonna be
here before you know it. Thanks again for having me,
and happy holidays to everybody.

Speaker 2 (14:52):
Thank you, Yanni, appreciate you as always, Yanni the Greek,
always best to get get our Monday started.

Speaker 5 (14:58):
Yes, Dan, uh No, I was just getting a little
piece out. You know, you gotta get your piece out.

Speaker 4 (15:04):
But yeah, just a little piece out, Nothing wrong with that. Andy,
You got these questions and I was reading over them here.

Speaker 5 (15:13):
Yeah, the first one just just gets you going.

Speaker 2 (15:17):
So this is if you're a subscriber, you know, and
this is one of those where hindsight's twenty twenty. But honestly,
I could have just not done any research on any
play once Week five or six started and it realized
that the Jets were not going to play any defense,
and now the cats out of the bag. We've been
on this one, me and clients have been on this

(15:38):
one for weeks and weeks and weeks, and now I
did a social media video about this for Tyler Shuck
not to throw an interception. He didn't, and now social
media is all over it. I gotta be honest, Dan,
I want to play the yes for the Jets to
have an interception next week.

Speaker 3 (15:53):
This many people get on it.

Speaker 4 (15:55):
Here's the thing is the Jets and being with the
holiday season, the Jets are the gift that keeps on
giving when it comes to like fodder like this, like
show fodder. Because okay, it's pretty shocking. They've not had
any interceptions, you know what I mean, like a bat
at ball something. I mean, think about the question Mary, anything, anything,
and they don't have an interception.

Speaker 5 (16:15):
I may even have one that I can one up
you with.

Speaker 4 (16:18):
Is the fact that the wide receiver for them.

Speaker 5 (16:23):
Of course, I'm forgetting his name right now, the.

Speaker 3 (16:25):
Guy who's Garrett Wilson.

Speaker 4 (16:27):
Garrett Wilson, yeah, yea, yeah, I know where you goes
with this Wade since mid October and he's there leading
wide receiver with like three hundred some receiver.

Speaker 3 (16:34):
He doesn't even have four hundred yards.

Speaker 5 (16:37):
It's crazy. I'm sorry, Jet's fans, we're lapping with you,
not at.

Speaker 2 (16:43):
There's a bunch of crazy stats. Trevor Lawrence has more
rushing touch touchdowns than Bjeon Robinson.

Speaker 3 (16:49):
They just go all day. We could go through this
all day. All right, interesting question. You had the best day?

Speaker 2 (16:55):
Damn Jack's Panthers are Steelers.

Speaker 5 (16:59):
I mean the Steelers. They escaped death at the end
of that game. Panthers.

Speaker 4 (17:04):
You know, I've kind of been down on the Tampa
Bay Buccaneers, so I think going into Mile High and
winning in the fashion that they did.

Speaker 5 (17:12):
Sure you could say the Broncos were due for letdown.

Speaker 4 (17:15):
I don't know how you say anybody, but the Jags
having the absolute best day of the day yesterday.

Speaker 2 (17:21):
I would argue the Panthers had the best day.

Speaker 3 (17:23):
They had no business winning that game.

Speaker 2 (17:25):
They had no business winning that game.

Speaker 4 (17:27):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (17:27):
Is it better to be good or lucky? I don't know.

Speaker 2 (17:30):
I'm not passionate about that, but they all had good ones.

Speaker 3 (17:35):
Speed bumper, red flag for the Texans.

Speaker 4 (17:39):
We kind of knew that the offense was over exceeding.
So I don't see this team. I don't view them
as a super Bowl team as is. So, you know,
speed bump. Their defense is still fine, you know what
I mean. It was just they took an opponent very lightly,
and when you do that in the NFL, you're gonna
get punched in the mouth. So it doesn't change my
outlook much on the text because I'm not crazy high

(18:01):
on him as is. I don't view them even though
they had such a great defense, they don't have the
offense to really pair with it. You know, them and
the Broncos very similar, but I think the Broncos maybe
even a little bit of a leg up as far
as the offense goes there.

Speaker 2 (18:16):
I went three and two in the Super contest. One
of my picks was the Texans big over the Raiders,
and that was that was That was by far the
worst pick of the weekend for me. And did we
underestimate how good these coordinators were. You have Ben Johnson,
you have Aaron Glenn and Liam Cohene. Dan, I mean,
Ben Johnson has the Bears turned around. Liam Cohen has

(18:39):
turned Trevor Lawrence into what we thought Trevor Lawrence is
gonna be. Obviously, Aaron Glenn's been a you know, mitigated disaster.
But you can't argue with what's happened to the Lions.
Do we actually underestimate them?

Speaker 4 (18:51):
I mean, heading out of the year, you know, it
seemed like, maybe, oh, look, do these coordinators really matter?
But if you remember when we did our team previews,
I was kind of down on the Lions heading into
this year simply because they lost all of these guys.
And when I see Aaron Glenn's name next to Ben
Johnson and Liam Cohen, it's like that meme where it's
the three dragons, where it's the two looking really tough

(19:11):
and then the one with you know what I mean,
with the crazy eyes there. But but yeah, I think
the biggest part is Ben Johnson clearly was the voice
of reason in the ear of Campbell, who was saying, yes,
we want to be aggressive, but it has to make mathematical,
statistical sense. And now you just you know, you had

(19:35):
the mad King running wild with with Campbell and UH
and it's it's it's it's playing itself out in real time.

Speaker 5 (19:42):
But the ending of that game.

Speaker 4 (19:43):
Steelers and UH and Lions, that was one of the
crazier endings that I can remember. When the ref comes
out Andy and he goes rolling on the field is
a touchdown. But basically go after yourselves because you still
lost the game because there was right call, but it
didn't have to be that crazy. You say O pi
and then boom, that's that.

Speaker 2 (20:04):
You know what I mean as somebody that has been
in that situation, not in an NFL game, but as
somebody has officiated games, and you know that you're following
the rule and you're gonna be just you're in a
no win situation. It is you are so long. It's
such a sinking feeling. You're like, they're gonna hate me,
except I have to do this by the book. So
all right, we move on. Where did the books win?

(20:27):
Where did the public win? Wasn't a huge volume on
certain things, but the books did win on the bills
minus the points, the bills of the Texans, the under
or not the I got that one wrong, Atlanta Arizona
over the Houston, the Houston game under that was a
big one.

Speaker 3 (20:46):
And where the public won the Jets.

Speaker 2 (20:48):
You don't see unders as a huge public play, but
the Jets and the Saints under was a big one.
And then Atlanta minus the points those were big. All right,
let's move to fantasy football and props.

Speaker 3 (20:58):
Oh, we had a lot of win.

Speaker 5 (21:00):
There's a big winn.

Speaker 3 (21:01):
Yeah, well we had some huge numbers.

Speaker 2 (21:04):
And those of you guys that are in your fantasy
you know, playoffs are cheat.

Speaker 4 (21:09):
I played against all of them. I'm not People don't
want to hear about my fantasy team. I'm not gonna
do it, but you know I was somebody pissed in
my cheerios this morning.

Speaker 2 (21:18):
I'll say in Stafford and Nakua continue there onslaught on
on these props overs, Jackson Smith and Jigoba continues to
be incredible. Barkley, your boy finally had.

Speaker 3 (21:28):
A big win.

Speaker 2 (21:29):
Trevor Lawrence is single handily winning league's Parker Washington. If
you picked him up and you've been starting him, he's
been good. Courtland Sutton was huge. Uh my guy, I
I in the league. I'm doing best than I drafted.
James Cook and a Monroe Saint Brown. Those guys have
been fantastic. James Cook, I feel like, continues to be underrated.
Justin Herbert is playing good. George Pickens. We wrote off

(21:49):
George Pickens. He said, not so fast. My friend Joe
Burrow comes out of nowhere, has a huge game along
with Chase Brown.

Speaker 3 (21:56):
There's something going on in New Orleans.

Speaker 2 (21:58):
Dan Tyler, Shucker, Chris have something going. I didn't think
the Saints had their quarterback situation figured out. They may
have their quarterback situation figured out going into next year.
So Bijeon had a good game. Jared Goff, despite anything,
had a good game. Kenneth Gainwell, Ashton Genty, Derrick Henry
despite his weird fumble, Drake May had a good one.

Speaker 3 (22:20):
Losers.

Speaker 2 (22:20):
Josh Jacobs killed you. Javanti Williams has been bad down
the stretch.

Speaker 3 (22:24):
The Chiefs. Oh oh man.

Speaker 2 (22:27):
If you had Chiefs in the middle of the season
and now you're you're.

Speaker 3 (22:31):
On the outs, that's that's brutal. It's so bad.

Speaker 2 (22:35):
Jacoby Brissett cost me a big bet. He was a
disastrous day. And Lamar good Lord, Lamar yeah, Rob. Rob
brings up Travion injury.

Speaker 3 (22:43):
I I don't know.

Speaker 2 (22:44):
I didn't know what to do with Travion because I just.

Speaker 3 (22:48):
He gets hurt. He was looking good.

Speaker 2 (22:50):
I didn't want to put him in a disappointment because
it wasn't really his fault. I put in I put
in Lamar just because he's been bad for a while.

Speaker 3 (22:57):
Now he's kind of tanked your tank. Your things.

Speaker 2 (23:00):
So all right, let's do these, let's do these stats,
let's do these betting little fun Now now that we
have we can do some hot little trends.

Speaker 4 (23:09):
You got this new little segment, Andy, I like this
doing your research.

Speaker 2 (23:13):
I don't know if these are helpful to anybody, but
they're interesting. The Steelers are twelve and three the first
half ats. The Cardinals are one and seven ats at home.
The Jags twelve and three over to their team total.
And this is the one that I'm kind of kicking myself.

Speaker 3 (23:30):
How do I how how do we host a betting show?

Speaker 2 (23:33):
And we haven't picked up that the Cowboys first half
overs are hitting fourteen in one on the opening number
because they're the first half.

Speaker 5 (23:41):
Their offense is so good, but they can't stop anyone.

Speaker 3 (23:45):
Like, how do we not jump all over this one?

Speaker 1 (23:47):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (23:48):
I mean we failed the people, Andy, But but all
we can do.

Speaker 4 (23:52):
All we can do is move forward. Shared the information now.
All we can do is move forward.

Speaker 5 (23:56):
That's that's telling.

Speaker 4 (23:57):
And also a lot of the times with trends, Andy,
you know, I worry are they just you know, talking
points or are they prescriptive? And ones like these they
kind of make sense you know the Cardinals one in
seven ats at home? Does that really mean anything? Where
they's smoke, there's fire. Maybe, But when you talk about
a Steelers team first half ats, you think Mike Tomlin.

(24:18):
He's a guy who is known and the reason why
he's kept his job for this longest because he's a
meticulous in preparation, you know what I mean. It's a
team who's always ready to fire. You very rarely see
a Steelers team come out flat. So that say, you
know that first half ats and with the Cowboys, it
makes perfect sense because what do we know about them
this year?

Speaker 5 (24:37):
Dak Prescott?

Speaker 4 (24:38):
You know, if they were actually winning games, you would
be talking about Dak Prescott an MVP level, what he's doing,
how he's able to spread the ball around, the decisions
that he's making. But that defense is just historically bad Andy,
So yeah, it makes sense in the first half they're
not pricing in for the game total. Sure they know
that this defense so hard on that when you talk
about those split markets, that's a good find.

Speaker 2 (24:59):
Buy regrets regrets on that one. So we're gonna bring
on Bill here in just a second. But I'm gonna
celebrate my birthday early here, Dan, let's put up the graphic.
It's so, it's my birthday tomorrow, guys, it's my forty
six birthday. Yes, I'm a Christmas baby. Shout out to
all you Christmas babies out there. You know how it
feels us. We're running a completely insane special seven days

(25:20):
for forty six bucks.

Speaker 3 (25:22):
I think one plays thirty five, but.

Speaker 2 (25:25):
We're celebrating my my forty six birthday with seven days.

Speaker 3 (25:29):
You get all plays.

Speaker 2 (25:29):
This includes darts, this includes our NBA, NFL, anything that
we have for the next seven days, you're gonna get
for only forty six dollars.

Speaker 3 (25:37):
So let's join in on the festivities.

Speaker 2 (25:39):
We're gonna have plays all the way through the holidays,
so take advantage of that. It's at wt dot buzz
slash a l and Yes, I will be hosting on
my birthday tomorrow.

Speaker 5 (25:50):
They a true man.

Speaker 2 (25:52):
The guys never rat You guys are The gift for
me really is what it is.

Speaker 4 (26:00):
You know what the real geft is. It's a Monday
and we get to talk. It's one of the best
in the bids.

Speaker 6 (26:05):
You know.

Speaker 4 (26:05):
We got Yanni, we got Bill Krackenberger joining the show.

Speaker 5 (26:09):
Bill. How we doing on this Monday. How was the
weekend for you? Brother?

Speaker 1 (26:13):
Hey, how you doing guys? Yeah? No, back to the
winning streak, back to the winning week. We really had
an unbelievable NFL season has been. I couldn't ask for
anything better. And you know, I don't do a lot
of sides, but actually winning a little bit on that
totals props. Yeah, it's been. It's been good. First halfs

(26:39):
been great. I do them on day of the game,
which I always say, it's such an efficient market the
day of the game. However, there are first half markets
that don't catch up with the full game a lot
of times. I don't really don't want to give away
too too much, but in other words, it's not gonna

(26:59):
give away the secret toss. But in other words, if
a game is a major line move at forty two
to the under and moves to forty and a half
forty one, lots of times, the first half, which was
twenty one and a half doesn't tend to move as
much even the twenty one. Uh you know, maybe some

(27:23):
plus juice or something. So I've been picking off some
situations like that, sharing with the wager talk crowded and yeah,
that the linemakers just don't pay attention to. Not that
they don't pay attention. There's key numbers in the first
half seventeen not gonna find too much, but twenty twenty three,

(27:43):
twenty four of the occasional twenty seven when the Cowboys play,
see a lot of twenty seven half. So they're the
key numbers. It can only land on certain numbers unless
some oddball thing happens two point conversion, missed, extra point,
something like that. They're the numbers that are gonna land on.
They're gonna land on things that equal to you know,

(28:04):
add up from three and seven occasionally though eight, which
will still try to get back to those those key numbers.
I'm exploiting that a little bit and sharing that with wagers.
So I've been doing that for decades actually, but sharing
that with the wager talk crowd day of the game,
which I think it's so hard to beat day of
the game. The market's so efficient. Just now, my co

(28:28):
host on my Fox Sports radio show, Jeff Schwartz said
to me, he said, f F which is cursing f
NFL sides. You've been saying it for years, crack and
I have. I've been and just seeing how hard it
is to bet NFL sides, especially the day of the game,
just because something's on TV. You know, Rams, I'm not

(28:49):
Rams Ravens last night. I know everyone has to have
action on the side. You gotta have one of the two.
I get it, I get it. But the people are
just doing it to have fun. Then I'm doing this
to make money, So I'm betting NFL props. NFL props
have been very successful on wager Talk. I release a
lot of them. It's been it's been a great season

(29:10):
again for NFL props, NBA props, but going back to
that efficient market in the NFL. Nobody though I do
thirteen shows a week. I'm on Vison, I'm on Fox,
I do hits on major major network for shows. Doesn't matter.
I could tell everyone anything day after day, week after week.

(29:32):
I almost want to wave the white towel because it
doesn't matter what I say. People are still gonna bet parlays.
People are still gonna bet NFL five minutes before the
game on the side, So it doesn't matter to parlays.
Is what makes the books, it's public information. The sportsbooks
are making sixty sixty five percent of their money on parlays.

(29:56):
That means parlays are sucker bets. I know this already,
of course, thirty years doing this, thirty years being roomed
by the best people in the business. But it doesn't matter. Fun.
I get it. You're betting five dollars to winter. I
just seen someone put up five dollars to win twenty thousand.
You need something tonight. So I know that people want

(30:17):
to make a little into a lot So here's what
I have done. I've done it on my on my
nationwide show, my Fox Nation White show. I've said, you know, guys, okay, okay,
I know you're not gonna listen anyway, but here, if
you bet one hundred dollars on a game, I have
no problem with you betting five dollars on a parlay
or ten dollars on a parlay. Tense too much, but

(30:37):
that's okay. You want to bet ten percent of your
average bet on a parlay and you're you're trying to
hit a lottery ticket. I get it. Have some fun,
enjoy it. Just because I don't do it doesn't mean
that that you know you can't have some fun with it.
But I know what that fun leads to in volume
I know what happens everyone's fees TikTok Instagram. They see

(30:58):
the people partying show in their little parlays and how
much they make giant money with. No matter what I say,
all of my co hosts, oh boy, hate to say that,
all of my cost Maybe Kelly doesn't, but all of
my co hosts on all my shows, they're all betting parlays.
So if they're around me and they're betting parlays, what

(31:19):
chance do they have to not be? He being alone,
just reading social media? But I get it. It's fun
and I'm not trying to say I'm you know, there's
there's many people out, many syndicates sports betting syndicates that is,
that are better than me. I've worked for four of them,
though I've been groomed by the best, and I know

(31:41):
lots of book makers and I know where they make
their money. So I don't know how I go off
on tangents like this. I don't know how we got
on this.

Speaker 5 (31:47):
Oh, we look forward to it. No, it's something that
we love it.

Speaker 4 (31:50):
Well, right now I'm crafting a parlay, So I need
you to give me a problem. No, I'm just messing
with you. I just want to know what propt you got.
That's what we do here on Mondays. Crack joins us,
we break down what we saw last weekend. We get
ready to go for tonight, and one of the things
Crack does for you gives you a free prop play.

Speaker 5 (32:07):
What are we eyeing tonight? Bill?

Speaker 1 (32:09):
Yeah, so I just went over to sports book Career
to make sure the line was correct. Yeah, may giving
out that line all right? And it is eleven and
a half Yeah, minus thirty perfect. Okay, there's actually twelve
and a half's out there. So this is LaMelo ball
over eleven and a half, rebounds, assists minus one thirty.
I have no problem with you're going over to twelve
and a half. I see DK twelve and a half

(32:32):
minus five. That's okay. Over on his rebounds and assists.
He goes against Cleveland today, who's been playing terrible defense,
especially without Mobil in the lineup. They're playing bad defense.
So bawls over this number seven of last eight and
against terrible defenses and the top top top ten worst defenses.

(32:55):
So I like that over And there's a free prop
for you guys, And that's where the money is. Listen,
that's where the money is NFL props, NBA props. I
know it's not fun turning on a game not having
action on the side. I get it. But here, like
I said, I'm gonna have to make money, I'm not
in it. The screaming yell and be with your friends

(33:16):
and laughing, giggle and day root for your favorite team. No,
I don't care about none of the teams. I don't
care about them. They don't care about me. I have
no allegiance to any team, any player off the court.
I don't care what they do as all as they
don't hurt anyone else. And I don't care about them
at all. Like I said, there's no fandom here about
And you know, when I was a kid, I was

(33:37):
a Met fan. I lived, you know, living up and
living New York, going to the Met games all time
by my uncle. Hat season tickets even though we're from
the Bronx is amazing. But it was great having season
tickets and my uncle knew Dave Kingman, who was the
right fielder. It was great. It was just a cool thing.
But that was great being a fan. That doesn't make
me any money. I'm looking to make money.

Speaker 5 (34:00):
Yeah, I love it. I absolutely love it.

Speaker 4 (34:02):
And yeah, that's the funny thing is obviously you know
I'm an Eagles fan. I'm from Philadelphia. However, I'll bet
on him, I'll bet against them. People always ask me
all the time, Oh, you know, so you do sports betting,
you got a favorite team, And I'm like, my favorite
team is whoever made me money in the last hour.

Speaker 5 (34:15):
That's my That's my favorite team. That's that's that's what
it comes down to.

Speaker 1 (34:19):
Let me tell you something. Most Philly guys though, because
I'm I go, I fly to Philadelphia.

Speaker 5 (34:23):
Oh yeah, we know the Philly guys. Bill, No, I have.

Speaker 1 (34:28):
Angelo is my favorite cheese steak right now.

Speaker 5 (34:31):
It's by far great pizza two at Angelo's. The pizza
and cheese steak best in the city.

Speaker 1 (34:36):
I want to tell you though, Uh, Skinny Joey's, George,
it's a sleeper. He just brought me to the back
door their bo I'm giving my secret away. He brought
me to the back door and the line was forty
five minutes on a Friday night.

Speaker 5 (34:50):
It's a big time Friday.

Speaker 1 (34:52):
Night forty five minutes. Skinny Joey's has a great cheese steak,
great role. The AVERSA role is great. I don't know
if I could talk about food all day. But anyway,
going back to the Philly guys, that's unusual. What's unusual?
Use telling me that you could bet against all the
Philly guys, all the South Philly guys. I know they're
not betting against Philly.

Speaker 5 (35:13):
Yeah, yeah, exactly until they go broke.

Speaker 4 (35:17):
Yeah, that's that's that's the thing, is like I I
kind of use it. I refer to it with Andy.
I'm like, I feel like it's my my betting superpower.
Before that Bears game, I picked every single game right
for the Eagles against the spread, and you know they
didn't cover all of them.

Speaker 1 (35:29):
So it's you.

Speaker 5 (35:30):
You can't let your fandom creep in.

Speaker 1 (35:33):
Bill.

Speaker 4 (35:33):
I know you got your show with Kelly coming up,
k IV and Cracks, so we don't want to hold
you too long.

Speaker 1 (35:37):
But I can talk forever.

Speaker 4 (35:39):
Sorry, Oh I know, Oh we know, Bill, that's that.
We love it, brother. But but what you got going
tonight for clients? What do you got going here for Christmas?

Speaker 5 (35:47):
Week? Is a big week? Action? Man?

Speaker 1 (35:49):
Yeah no, this is this is a big week. You
have Thursday football. I didn't realize so yesterday it's free games.
I don't know why I didn't realize. Of course I've
been to the survivor in Grandisimo, should realize. It's a
big week for NFL sides and totals. Of course, everyone's
gonna bet them, bet props. Trust me, don't bet the size.
So yeah, we have a lot. We're gonna have a

(36:10):
lot of things up a wager talk of course, from
all my action there, all all my props will be up.
And I tell you this, guys, I'm not into this
daily pack. I know people like to buy daily, buy
me long term. Like I said, this is another winning
week in football. We've had. I don't know how many,
but I mean we're probably. Yeah, I don't want to brag. Listen,

(36:31):
we're winning. We're killing football this year. We're gonna kill.
The props still continue. Yeah, you got playoff props coming up,
super Bowl props, so many different things. Get on a package,
get on a ninety day, a thirty day, or even
a year package. They have some really good bargains up
there for you guys. I'm a long term guy for sure.
We're gonna grind it out. We're gonna win, and uh,

(36:52):
you know it's fun. Yeah, I guess it's fun. I
really don't have a lot of fun. This is a
business for me though, so as far as I just
great tickets, I'm not screaming and yelling and doing all
that stuff people do. It's a business for me. It's
the reason why I've been Toronto. Thousands of book makers.
That's right, people say, how could you be Toronto? Here?
Here's how I'm gonna use the regular bookmakers in this town.

(37:14):
I'm toront of Caesars Toronto Treasure Island. Backed off from
multiple multiple apps in town, legal apps for doing nothing,
as every use in my brain. Now, where are the
thousands coming to play? Anyone knows that's been involved with
me in the last thirty years, how many outs we lose?
I have had outs all over the country. When I

(37:35):
live back East, you know, I had plenty of outs
to get thrown out. I'm not even welcomed. My name
is not even mentioned over there in Philly because they
do not want my action, and none of those local
guys that's.

Speaker 4 (37:47):
What But just did the cheese steak spots. Bill, that's
where they want our action. Baby, that's right, that's Bill Krackenberger.

Speaker 1 (37:55):
Bill.

Speaker 4 (37:55):
Let's bet props Krackenberger here on the show. You can
catch him on k IV and crack Big. Thanks to
Bill here taking some time out of his Monday joining
us here and again folks gave out that that lamellow
ball prop there and uh and that's the free play for.

Speaker 5 (38:11):
You and uh Andy one reason only using his brain.
That's why he's kicked out all the sports book.

Speaker 4 (38:18):
Using all of them, brain, all of them, all of them. Hey,
you know who's not kicked out away your talk today?
He's been waiting in the wings. Not only is he
not kicked out, the esteemed guest is here and he
is festive Steve Merrill.

Speaker 6 (38:34):
Yeah that's nice, come on.

Speaker 5 (38:39):
Long sleving aft flex Tuesday.

Speaker 4 (38:42):
Yeah maybe, wow, Steve, that thing's actually pretty sharp.

Speaker 6 (38:46):
I'm not gonna very sharp. So I got to give
a shout out to my friend CANDICEF. She gave this
to me over a year ago. And last December is
the first time I got a chance to win it.
And the first time I ever wore was at halftime
of a one Mary basketball game I was coaching. The
halftime game of rec game made its debut a year
ago by popular demand of the videos of his back
and I was putting the hoodie on Andy to match
you today, and then I realized I got to knock

(39:06):
out all these videos for this week.

Speaker 5 (39:09):
Yeah, we're about to be real busy, Steve.

Speaker 4 (39:11):
Yeah, Steve breaks down every single Bowl game on the channel,
every single one of them, for free, right here, Steve.

Speaker 5 (39:19):
And like, if these people aren't subscribe, what the hell
are they doing, Steve?

Speaker 6 (39:22):
They're missing out. And I'm gonna do the triple header
for tomorrow and Tuesday. And I didn't really need the
Sandy shirt for that, but Dan, we got to get
the NFL video off. There are three NFL games on Thursday,
include a Prime game. Man, what do I do? Broncos?
Choose the thirteen and three?

Speaker 2 (39:36):
I gotta put the stop bragging about these games. These
games have turned into complete and utter dog ship.

Speaker 5 (39:44):
On the supposed to be.

Speaker 6 (39:49):
Netflix the Prime Games. I had to pick Dan's Eagles
Bears Friday Thanksgiving Prime Games. I'm actually thirteen and two
on the Thursday Prime Games. Wow, and I gotta put
that watch.

Speaker 2 (40:00):
It for Steve's record, Watch for Steve's.

Speaker 6 (40:02):
No but I got to put that record on the
line with the Chiefs and Broncos real quick though. Thank you, Andy,
I'm doing Commanders Cowboys as the first of that tripleheader,
and I did not. I was thinking maybe over, I'm
gonna give you guys a shout out. Maybe we'll go
with that first half over although an early Thursday game.
Could that be enough to maybe jinks that whole fourteen
and one pattern. We'll find out.

Speaker 4 (40:21):
Niceeve, I know that on the docket here we got
forty nine ers. Obviously we're gonna break down this Monday
night football game, and then you got two NBA games.
But all show long, you have a video up on
the channel right now. All show long, these people have
been asking about the Potato Bowl, so I know that
the channels up. Steve, you don't have to give us
a full breakdown, but some quick thoughts for the folks.

Speaker 5 (40:40):
I was like, if there's anyone who.

Speaker 4 (40:42):
Could give us a take on the Potato Bowl, it's
my man, Steve Merrill.

Speaker 5 (40:45):
What do you got for the folks?

Speaker 6 (40:46):
So as Bill was finishing up, I just went and
put this video up on my wager Talk page. I
had to fade the public video on my homepage, and
I've got a free NBA play so I'll make it
very simple. Go to my page Steve merrillwager Talk dot
com and get the full video for this game. The
kicks off at two Eastern for all the live viewers
out there. Nothing really big for me in this game.
I do have a free play on the total. Washington

(41:08):
State's coaches leaving defensive coordinators going to step up. Both
teams are missing now, Washington State's missing their top running back,
Utah States missing their leading receiver. Totals dropped from fifty
four down to fifty when I did the video the
other day, crossed under that key number of fifty one unfortunately,
but once again I did use a free play on
the under. I like TV lean only and once again

(41:28):
I'm doing every Bowl game every day. This is not
one that made my client card. But if you want
a little sprinkle, a little action this afternoon, probably lean
under my ten thousand game simulation favorite Washington State by three.
But once again they're missing a little bit more than
Utah State. However, looks like a little bit of an overreaction.
Now Uta State a one one and a half point favorite.
Washington State I think's gone under like an eight of
their last nine games. I'd have to pull it back up,

(41:50):
but Yeah, full dive in the video on my page
right now. Steve merrillwager Talk dot com and a free
NBA game tonight up there right now as well.

Speaker 2 (42:00):
All right, Steve, let's talk about my colts. Me and
Andrew McGinnis did a show about props for this show
that is up right now on the Wager channel. And
believe it or not, it's the year twenty twenty five
and we had to break down philip rivers and a
mirror abduel of props. I simply cannot believe this, but
we have the forty nine ers minus five and a

(42:21):
half over under forty six. Quick thoughts on this game?

Speaker 6 (42:25):
Yeah, another one in which I have a standalone video for.
So we'll get to the NBA real quick here in
a moment, But full breakdown of this game Monday Night
Football is available right here on the channel. By the way,
the Thursday night play I had the over with that
ram Seahawks easy winner gave me the Patriot team total
over last night in the free play video also used
the over and that game is a best bet for
my clients. So we've been pretty good in these primetime

(42:46):
games on Sunday Monday nights Thursday nights this year. This
was a tough one. It's an ugly game. Philip Rivers
is a huge uncertainty. On the surface, the eighteen to
sixteen loss at Seattle last week seems pretty impressive, especially
since the Seahawks ended up beating the Rams a few
days later. Colts defense did show up, held Seattle to
six field goals, but the Seahawks still moved the ball

(43:06):
for over three hundred yards. What jumps out to me, though, Yeah,
Philip Rivers didn't embarrass himself. And look, guys, he's only
the fifth quarterback to ever start a game at over
age forty four. He's a man. He's over forty four.
But he didn't do much. I know they almost won
the game, but it wasn't because he lit things up there.
Extremely cautious with him. High completion percentage, but like four
yards per pass, and I don't think things are going

(43:28):
to change tonight. They're not going to ask him to
do too much. Taylor's gonna obviously been a great running
back this year, but they focused on him last week.
Only had eighty some yards. I think his longest rub
was like eleven yards on twenty five carries. The under
forty six. Forty six and a half would make sense
to me for that reason. But let's just take San
Francisco out of the equation, and if I really think
it's gonna be a vanilla game plan for the Occults,

(43:49):
under twenty and a half team total might be the
best way to play.

Speaker 4 (43:52):
It.

Speaker 6 (43:52):
Would have liked to have gotten that key number of twenty one,
but under twenty and a half I think still has
some value. And I mentioned this in my video without
a recording a few days ago once get a deep
tenmiut and analysis is still available here. But one thing
I forgot to point out is that the Colts have
gone under twenty or less now. In four straight games
and five of their last six games, the Colts have
scored twenty or less, and that was with Daniel Jones

(44:13):
playing most of those games. Their paxxing attack has already
been on the decline. Teams are focusing on the star
running back on Taylor, and now you've got a quarterback
that cannot do much. Tonight Colts have gone under twenty
or less and five of their last six. If it
ain't broke, don't fix it. Under twenty and a half
to night team total.

Speaker 2 (44:31):
Rob brings up a good point. We talked about this.
He's like, like, it's not this Steve.

Speaker 5 (44:38):
But his motion was weird when he Yeah, was always.

Speaker 6 (44:42):
But Dan, I didn't remember it being that's really interesting, Nay,
because I thought the same thing, Dan, I didn't remember
it being that weird when he played before. Yeah, yeah,
it was always.

Speaker 4 (44:51):
It was always an atypical like like he would snap,
like he always had a weird throwing motion. Like if
you did one of those, you know, you just you
black out all the video and just watch. You know, Oh,
guess who who's which quarterback right is? I could pick
Philip Rivers out of a lineup. However, it did not this.
He looks labored, you know what I mean. The passes
looked like there's weight behind a ball and he's trying

(45:12):
to shot.

Speaker 5 (45:12):
Put it forward.

Speaker 4 (45:13):
The passing looks looks labor But for what's worth, he
did get it out pretty damn quick.

Speaker 5 (45:19):
You know, it was just one step drop bank, one
step drop.

Speaker 6 (45:21):
I'll tell you what, I'll be an ugly you and
I could average four yards of pass in the NFL
and have a seventy five percent completion. It did make
me feel like that that's what That's what they did. Though.
He threw I think twenty seven times and average like
four point four yards of pass four.

Speaker 2 (45:33):
Point four eighteen completion pass.

Speaker 6 (45:35):
And Andy, you're exactly right. He's not going to hit
a seventy yard home run pass. He's not physically capable
of doing it, nor are they going to ask him
to do it. And you're the prop master, but this
would have to tie also with a lot of and
I'm sure it's priced in. I haven't looked, but you know,
passing passing props under any offensive props under for the
Colts would be my opinion tonight.

Speaker 2 (45:54):
We may have talked about Philip rivers under twenty six
and a half longest reception. We may we may have
glossed over that way.

Speaker 6 (46:01):
But you do have to be careful though with like
receptions and attempts though, right because like Dan just said,
a lot of quick dump balls and he's still hit
like seventy percent completion. So for me, it's a big
play yardage thing. Maybe touchdowns receivers things like that are
gonna be less likely.

Speaker 2 (46:15):
Yeah, yeah, Look like Mark Andrews last night throwing.

Speaker 4 (46:18):
Actually I have, I have, I have, I have coming
up a thought on a Philip Rivers props for our
our WTF or LFG segment, Steve, we do a follower fade.
I give one play and it is Philip Rivers related,
So get your barf bags ready.

Speaker 5 (46:34):
But for now, let's talk a little NBA.

Speaker 4 (46:37):
These are actually pretty two good matchups, right Andy.

Speaker 2 (46:40):
Yeah, So, Steve, I'm gonna have you do both these
games back to back. In between the games, give us
your promo what you have up at wager talk. But
we got to talk this Magic Warriors team. Two teams.
You have the Warriors, who I be honest that they
look old and they look non competitive in the West,
and you have the Magic that boy on paper, they'd
be good if they could get everybody help. But Suggs

(47:00):
is out, Wagner's out. And then on the flip side,
together the Pistons who are having dream dream season. Man,
this is a team that's on the rise of the
number one seed currently in the East. Versus the Trailblazers
team that I find myself watching on League Pass.

Speaker 3 (47:14):
I kind of like them.

Speaker 2 (47:15):
They got a lot of injuries in the backcourt. But
let's start with Magic Warriors and then go into Pistons
and Trailblazers. What's your breakdown on these games?

Speaker 6 (47:25):
Yeah, pretty good. NBA card tonight. Nice NBA card tonight
on Monday, we've got on I believe what is it's
seven games on the board. Going to look at two
of these later games for you in the association. Both
go at ten o'clock Eastern. By the way, there are
five Christmas games on Thursday. Also a nice card tomorrow
on Tuesday. Make sure you're clicking subscribe and clicking the
bell here for instant larch when the free play videos
for football and basketball are posted here each and every

(47:45):
day on wager Talk TV. Orlando Magic projected to be
one of the best teams in the East. I like
their season win total over this year at sixteen and twelve.
It might be a little dicey now, but it's because
they've been extremely banged up. Bogner's been out for several weeks.
But there's still one of the best defensive teams in
the NBA. And if you look at the overall defensive
rankings right now after the Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando has

(48:07):
the best second best efficiency defensively in the NBA, but
all the top ten teams in net rating, there are
nowhere near anybody else. They're well below the pact offensively,
and that's one of the reasons they're struggling right now.
Gets a spread, Orlando's just one in seven against the
number their last eight. They're taking on a Golden State
team that has lost three out of four straight up
and failed to cover four straight and Golden States failed

(48:30):
to cover seven of their last ten. So these have
been two of the biggest money burners in the NBA
over the past couple of weeks from a point spread perspective.
Yet the money has come in a little bit on
Golden State from minus five up to minus six. Total
has dropped from two twenty nine and a half down
to two twenty six and a half to twenty seven,
still out there in some spots. I'm not going to
touch the side two biggest money burners, as I just stated,

(48:50):
let's look at that total instead. And I do like
the under here Orlando's shorthand it cannot win offensively, They've
got to win with defense. And by the way, after
four straight unders, our last three games have gone over
and they've gone one and two straight up, zero to
three against the spread, and that recent loss was a
bad one on the road. Is over a touchdown favorite
against Utah. I look for a better defensive effort. It's

(49:11):
a focused spot. It's a bounce back spot for Orlando,
which means it's a defensive spot for the Magic because
that's how they have to play. And we get plenty
of wiggle room here. Even with the line move. I
still think there's value with Orlando and Golden State under
two twenty six and a half two twenty seven to
night that's at ten eastern on Monday. Going to get
some special offers for you in just a moment. But
I want to get to the other late game tonight

(49:31):
at ten eastern as well, Detroit and Portland. And boy,
there's some good basketball teams in the state of Michigan
right now. I rate the Michigan Wolverines is the best
college basketball team in Michigan State. Is a top ten
team as well this year, and they're still finally second
fiddle to the Detroit Pistons, who are off to a
twenty two and six start. You know, last week here
on the network, I talked about the Pistons when they're

(49:51):
off to the twenty and five start. Well, they went
two and one since then, and they're now twenty two
and six. And that game that I gave you last
Monday here in the show was to Detroit. I said, hey,
it's probably public, but the better team at Boston is
getting points. They won that game outright. They did regress though,
on the road as a favorite and lost to Dallas
a few days later. Maybe that was a little bit
of a flat spot after the big Celtic road win.

(50:13):
Bounce back with authority, though, and that's what you'd like
to see with quality teams. Easy twenty six blow point
blowout of the Charlotte Hornets this past Saturday. They now
travel cross country to Portland. They're starting an extended road trip.
They'll stay out here over Christmas. This is the first
of five straight road games. They're at Sacramento tomorrow, at
Utah on Friday. They'll be out here on the West

(50:36):
coast for Christmas. But I think they get things started
right here at Portland. And this is a Pistons team
you do not want to get in front of. Now.
With that said, the Blazers playing pretty good basketball. They
had lost six out of seven games, and now they
have won three straight two and one against the spread
those last three. They were favored against Sacramento in those
last two wins. And as I just established, Sacramento not

(50:56):
a great team, and I think we'll find that out
tomorrow night when the Pistons played them. Hey, look, if
Detroit does come flat tonight for some reason, a little foreshadowing,
you can play them tomorrow. The early money has coming
on the Pistons minus four and a half. It's now
up to minus six. If you're gonna play it, I
would lay it. Jermammi Grant missed the last game against
the Kings. They still won without him, but he's an
important player. He's been averaging emver twenty points a game

(51:17):
over the past few weeks. Grant is questionable tonight, and
that's one of the reasons the sign has moved. He
probably won't play again. I lean Pistons here. It always
worries me when a key players out for the other team.
But here's a little two for one special. Play Detroit
tonight minus six. If they don't win, then he can
play them tomorrow night against Sacramento with more confidence. So
Detroit our passed for me right now. The hottest team,
the most underrated team in the NBA. By the way,

(51:40):
the total has dropped a bit also, two thirty eight
down to two thirty five, which is another indicator that
the betty market Sink grant is probably a no go
tonight after missing that Sacramento game last time out for
the Blazers. All right, if you'd like to get my
official best bets every day, they're on my page Steve
merrillwager Talk dot com. But don't forget about the bonus
free play. I just gave you two NBA games tonight,
right two of the seven games. Well, guess what, I'm

(52:01):
giving you three of the seven games because I've got
a free play in the Memphis, Oklahoma City game at
nine to forty eastern on my page right now with
analysis last cut for my best bet card goes up
as a free play every day on my page Steve
merrillwager Talk dot com, including that free play between the
Grizzlies and thunder tonight on Monday. Steve Merrillwager Talk dot Com,
and hey, get there quicker with shortcut wt dot buzz

(52:23):
slash sm get that free play for tonight's NBA game,
And don't forget I've got free plays in the Idaho Bowl,
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, not the unfamous infamous one. It's
the famous Idaho Potato Bowl today on Monday afternoon. And
also Colts forty nine ers free plays for both football
games tonight. And that's not a surprise because I'm doing
every Bowl game for you free, including all three games
tomorrow and Tuesday, all the weeknight NFL games including Prime

(52:46):
Football thirteen and three in your Prime games yard three
NFL games this Thursday. Don't miss out free play videos.
Click subscribe. Click the bell for an instant alert, And
the more thumbs up likes, the more positive comments below,
the more videos I'll keep doing on a daily basis.
Right here now on wager Talk.

Speaker 2 (53:01):
TV, Steve, I'll throw in Isaiah Stewart to go over
his rebounds as a nice little prop in that game.
I love clinging. I think he's really good. I think
he's in a solid weapon. But boy, as soon as
he gets off that court, you can rebound against Portland
and Beef. Stew has been playing his ass off recently,
so I'll throw in that prop.

Speaker 3 (53:21):
So great stuff, Steve. Love the shirt, I mean that
shirt is just amazing.

Speaker 6 (53:26):
Yeah, it's the gift that keeps on giving thank you Candace,
really really interest, Like I've been trying to get her
something for two years now, Like I don't know, this
is one of the best gifts I've ever gotten because
it was unexpected, something I wouldn't have bought myself. Yeah,
and it's awesome, like you know, and that's like it's
like a twenty dollars gift or whatever. But it's like
it's awesome. I mean, that's exactly. It's hard to top
something like that. I'm a big believer in stuff you

(53:48):
wouldn't get yourself, right.

Speaker 5 (53:49):
Yeah, I love it.

Speaker 6 (53:50):
Steve.

Speaker 4 (53:50):
Well, Steve, make sure you go get a big glass
of water because you and I are about to bang
out about a billion solo gamer videos. So Steve, rest
up and we'll see in a few other.

Speaker 6 (54:01):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (54:02):
Yeah, yeah.

Speaker 8 (54:03):
There was when I worked back in radio, there was
a news guy who his warm up andy was he
would go red leather yellow, leather, red, leather yellow, and then.

Speaker 4 (54:13):
It was the other one was giving me the gift
of a grip top sock, a tip top grip top
tipox sock, and I would just it would just be
it would just be going crazy in the newsroom and
I would just be like Dave, just just do your
segment so Steve will be in preparation for for his
his twelve million videos that Steve and I are doing.

Speaker 5 (54:31):
So subscribe to the channel people had.

Speaker 2 (54:34):
I had a acting teacher in college.

Speaker 3 (54:37):
How now brown cow? How? Brown cow? How now brown Cow?

Speaker 4 (54:43):
I can't I can't hear that without thinking of Anchorman
because that was that was Anchorman's he would do.

Speaker 5 (54:50):
How now brown cow? How now?

Speaker 4 (54:52):
The the human torch was denied a bank loan today.

Speaker 5 (54:56):
That's that's how he's warming up.

Speaker 4 (54:58):
All right, Andy, hopefully you're our You're all warmed up, man,
because some of these free plays that you got for
the folks, you ready for all around the world.

Speaker 2 (55:05):
Yeah, let's do all around the world. That I got
some props to address in the chat that we can go.
But let's let's do these free plays.

Speaker 3 (55:11):
We're gonna go.

Speaker 2 (55:11):
Brock pretty over two forty five and a half passing.
I talked about taking two sixty plus as part of
a same game parlay, Bill Krackenberg, cover your ears. Yes,
we went over a same game parlay. But this is
a cult secondary that is truly awful. When sass Gardner
is not in the lineup, and they're doing the right thing.
They're not playing him with this calf injury. We cannot

(55:32):
stop number one wide receivers. We can't stop number two
wide receivers. But what we can do is stop the
run when DeForrest Buckner is playing. And he's gonna be
back tonight off of the scary neck injury. So this
is a Cults team. You attack through the air indoors.
I like brock Purty to go over his passing. We
go to NBA Magic Warriors team Steve talked about game.

(55:52):
Steve talked about beg Caro over fourteen a half rebounds
plus assist. He has flown over this last two games
with Suggs and Wagner out of the lineup, like eighteen
and twenty six. So he is kind of their offense
right now, very very involved. And then we'll go to
the Mavericks and the Pelicans. Naji Marshall over thirteen and
a half points. This was a play that we cast
for clients the other night. It missed the card for

(56:15):
clients today because we got it at eleven and a
half the other night. I'm okay with a one point over,
but this has moved up two points and The reason
is very, very simple. He's been taking a lot of shots.
He's been making all of them. I watched him quite
a bit. He's getting these shots right at the rim.
They're very high percentagesould usage is up and shooting percentage
is up. I still like him to go over this total.

(56:37):
This is a this is this is a team he
should have success about. Let's see in the chat anything
on John Taylor receiving yards.

Speaker 3 (56:46):
Possibly. I think he's going to take a.

Speaker 2 (56:49):
Bulk of the carry, not take a bulk of the
carries like all the carries, but that may be all
he gets. If they're going to pass it to a
running back. It could be a mirror Abdullah herb Jones
points and rebounds r J. I get what you're saying
with that one. I'm a little worried about the matchup tonight,
just because I believe Davis is gonna play, and I'm

(57:11):
not sure how that much how much that affects herb Jones.

Speaker 3 (57:14):
Little worry on it. I like where you're going with it.
I can't get there.

Speaker 2 (57:17):
Brian Robinson to score a second TD is plus twenty
six hundred.

Speaker 3 (57:21):
Is that a crazy play? Yes, it is.

Speaker 2 (57:23):
It is a crazy play. Uh, just take him to
just take him to score.

Speaker 5 (57:28):
Well, that's what I'm wanting.

Speaker 4 (57:29):
I'm wondering, is he's saying it would be Brian Robinson's
second touchdown of the Yeah, so he's anytime touchdown score
plus three point thirty. Yet two tds I'm seeing even
thirty to one.

Speaker 2 (57:42):
You're saying, is he going to score two touchdowns or
the second touchdown of the game.

Speaker 4 (57:47):
Yeah, either way, it's a needle in a haystack that
you're trying to find, right, I don't.

Speaker 5 (57:51):
I don't they're gonna be a stretch.

Speaker 4 (57:53):
Yeah, I don't think they're gonna be They're not gonna
be up enough that there's going to be crazy Brian
Robinson Junior volume at the end of the game for
him to sneak in and score two touchdowns, which is
currently plus three thousand if you want to bet Brian
Robinson to be an anytime touchdown score. Still, I don't
know if plus three thirty the juice is worth the
squeeze there, Andy, this what a joke if this would be,

(58:16):
you know, his second touchdown. I don't have his stats
in front of me, but the fact that Brian Robinson
only plus three thirty as at anytime, touchdown score joke, awful, awful, awful.

Speaker 2 (58:27):
Right, all right, we're gonna get to WTFLFG one more time, guys.
Promo code Andy forty six get you seven days of
my plays for just forty six dollars, celebrating my birthday week.
My birthday is officially tomorrow, and you're gonna get every
single play. This includes all of our props, NBA, NHL, NFL,
anything we have in the World Championships of Darts. We

(58:48):
got a bunch of parlays that are pending in darts.
So really excited about the next week. This is going
to take you all the way through the weekend. So
just you're never gonna get a deal like this. They
let me do it at this price. One plays thirty
five dollars, but we're gonna celebrate my birthday to get
seven days for just forty six bucks. We are gonna
be having plays on every single day from now through

(59:10):
those seven days, So get there quicker with shortcut, WT doup,
buzz slash al Dan. Are you gonna be on the
show tomorrow?

Speaker 5 (59:19):
Uh?

Speaker 4 (59:20):
So let's see we got bed on it. I'm gonna
try and be on the show tomorrow. Andy, I'm gonna
confer with our friend Chris if we can get bet
on It done in a timely manner.

Speaker 5 (59:27):
I would very much like to be here for your birthday, spatch.

Speaker 2 (59:30):
Okay, if you are, I will wear my one in
one hundred. There was only one hundred of them made
and I happen to have one of them. It is
a Christmas Fireball onesie.

Speaker 5 (59:40):
Oh wow, oh, I want to have one hundred, a
special edition.

Speaker 2 (59:45):
Buddy of mine worked at Fireball and was helping me
out with with the golf podcast, and he had this
onesie that he gave he gave to me and I
and I was gonna use it as a giveaway and
it was so cool.

Speaker 3 (59:57):
I kept it. He was like, Yeah, you did the
right thing. They're only made a hundred.

Speaker 5 (01:00:00):
You made the right call. Yeah, you made the right call.

Speaker 2 (01:00:02):
If danned, If Dan is on the show tomorrow, I
will wait the firem.

Speaker 4 (01:00:08):
I'll tell I'll tell Kelly, VR and Marco to get
their asses in gears so I can be here because
I want that and I know the viewers want that.
So I'll keep you guys posted. But regardless, if I'm here,
we will be here with the show. It'll be our
last show until Friday. We will be back the day
following Christmas for programming as usual, and I am certain

(01:00:28):
I will be on that program. All right, Andy, let's
do it WTF LFG. This is a follow or fade.
You agree or disagree with the bet that I am
about to give you. We lost over the weekend this
lacrosse game that I gave out. We had fifteen goals
in the first half, still ends up going under. That
about sums up my betting weekend. But we are still
five and three here. That ended the five straight winners.

(01:00:51):
So let's start a new streak this week.

Speaker 5 (01:00:53):
Andy.

Speaker 4 (01:00:54):
We've said a lot negative about Philip Rivers on the
program today, and sure, there was really not much positive
about your new starting quarterback, Andy. He looked like a
forty six year old man no offense playing playing.

Speaker 5 (01:01:06):
Football in the NFL.

Speaker 4 (01:01:08):
But as Steve Astutey pointed out, and I rewatched the
game to see, was it.

Speaker 5 (01:01:13):
Really that bad? It was really that bad. But he
was getting he was getting the ball out quick.

Speaker 4 (01:01:19):
Sure he was pushing it, but he was dropping back
and getting out the ball quick. And even in a
close game. I think everyone has this thought, let's protect
Philip Rivers. Let's just have him hand the ball off
to Taylor. Last week was a game they almost won,
and he still attempted twenty seven passes in that game.
So what I'm looking for to do tonight? Andy, in
a game that a lot of people think they will

(01:01:39):
be trailing in. I'm going over eighteen and a half
completions for Philip Rivers. It's plus one five. And here's
my thought process. Last week completed eighteen on twenty seven passes.

Speaker 5 (01:01:54):
San Francisco.

Speaker 4 (01:01:55):
This is a team who is a bend but don't
break type of defense with Robert Stalay. Will allow yardage,
but then they will stiffen up as they get towards
the end zone. They allow around twenty four completions on average. Dude,
Spencer Rattler, who's gonna be out of the league and
playing in the CFL, he completed twenty five passes on
this defense. A lot of quick a lot of dink

(01:02:16):
and dunks, lots of them tonight. He doesn't have to
be flashy. He can attempt one yard per pass for
all I care. Let's have Philip Rivers complete nineteen passes tonight.
This is disgusting. Andy, maybe my grossest play of this segment.
WTF or LFG follow or fading the over eighteen and
a half completions for Philip Rivers.

Speaker 2 (01:02:38):
I'm gonna go WTF. Here's why. If it loses, you're
gonna feel like a fool. You're gonna be like I
can't believe. I can't believe over on this old man.
If he gets hit and he just crumbles over. We
talked about this on the show. How do we know
where he's one hundred percent? This was his first point game.
This is a forty four year old man. What if

(01:03:00):
he's just so bad and so laughable that they bring
in somebody else. You kind of need a lot to
go right for this play. And not only that, they're
gonna hand the ball to Jonathan Taylor a bazillion times.
So I'm going WTF on this one, Dan Love, Yeah,
I cannot bet on Philip.

Speaker 5 (01:03:20):
The live chat agrees with you. Comment below what an
idiot I am? And give me some wtfs in the chat.

Speaker 4 (01:03:25):
And while you're down there, give Andy a quick happy birthday,
a little early happy birthday, And if you are heading
over to wageertalk dot com, wt.

Speaker 5 (01:03:33):
Dot buzz slash A. I'll use that code Andy forty.
I'm using it.

Speaker 4 (01:03:39):
I can get Andy's plays for free, and I'm buying
his birthday package.

Speaker 5 (01:03:43):
It's a big thanks to Andy.

Speaker 4 (01:03:45):
And also that price is insane. I can't actually believe
they're letting you do that. Affable, But hey, Andy, for
there you go WT not a.

Speaker 3 (01:03:54):
Can we flash the the name.

Speaker 2 (01:03:55):
We'll go over Jeremy's user name again tomorrow, but Jeremy
was the big winner for the contest on Friday.

Speaker 3 (01:04:03):
Guys, when we run a contest.

Speaker 2 (01:04:06):
For a free three day pass, all we ask for
you to do is a couple things. You go in
the comments section, you post which handicapper you like on
their pick, and then your wager talk user name. Jeremy,
you won because you were the only person that put
their wager talk user name in there.

Speaker 4 (01:04:26):
There's a lot of good comments saying great breakdown Andy.
I'm with Andy, but if you do not include your
wager talk user name, we can't credit you the three
free day flex pass. And believe it or not, who
would have thunked this?

Speaker 5 (01:04:40):
Andy.

Speaker 4 (01:04:40):
Whenever we give these three free day passes, customer service
gets multiple emails. Hey, I'm the guy who won. Hey,
I'm the guy who won. That's why we need your
wager Talk user name so we can put it right
in your account.

Speaker 5 (01:04:50):
You don't even have to contact customer service.

Speaker 4 (01:04:52):
But big shout out to Jeremy watching on the YouTube
short Speed, which you can watch here. He's our lone
winner because he was the only one who actually followed
the directions. It's let us know who you agree with
and put your wage to Talk user in. Let us
know who you agree with. Put we want to give
you free shit. We want to give it to you.
Let us give it to you.

Speaker 2 (01:05:14):
Oh great stuff, great stuff. We went long, but what
a great Monday. Okay, we will be back tomorrow. Tomorrow
is my birthday, Dan, If he joins, I will be
wearing my uh my one of a kind, fun trying onesie.

Speaker 4 (01:05:27):
Let you know, you never know with these these bet
on It Cruise.

Speaker 2 (01:05:31):
Yes, absolutely. Oh no, I've done the show. I know that,
I know the I know the bet On It Cruise.
I remember I was late one time out of the
first like fifteen weeks, and Kelly was like.

Speaker 3 (01:05:41):
What the come on? Andy?

Speaker 5 (01:05:44):
Yeah? So yes, Andy, your segment.

Speaker 4 (01:05:46):
We're gonna record it one fifteen Eastern and then I
would message Andy it two fifteen Eastern saying we're running
a little late, buddy.

Speaker 2 (01:05:53):
Log on, I'm ready like I've been logged on watching
the days of our lives.

Speaker 3 (01:05:59):
All right, thank you so much. Hit the like button.

Speaker 2 (01:06:01):
We're going to see you tomorrow, last year before Christmas,
and then we will be back for Friday to get
you ready for football Friday for the weekend.

Speaker 3 (01:06:08):
Thank you so much.

Speaker 2 (01:06:09):
Everybody. We're gonna have a big, big show for my
birthday tomorrow. I hope you join us at the same time,
same place. Good luck on your bets to night and
take care

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