September 26, 2025 • 37 mins
Looking for the best VFL, CFB & WNBA picks, predictions, and betting tips for Friday, September 26, 2025? We have you covered on the ONLY show talking WNBA, CFB & NFL Action! Tune in to Profit Picks with expert handicappers Hakeem "Skee" Profit and Rob Veno as they preview today’s WNBA Playoffs matchups with sharp insights and actionable advice.
Friday's WNBA Matchups
Aces vs Fever Game 3
Lynx vs Mercurcy Game 4
Friday's WNBA Matchups
Aces vs Fever Game 3
Lynx vs Mercurcy Game 4
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
What's up everybody. Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.
If you are new, we always start this show a
by being transparent. Yesterday I did take the Cardinals and
they fell short, so got to do a little bit
better in the NFL. But we do have two WNBA
games to talk about today as well as some football
college football. So back here with mister Ravino. I'm curious
(00:23):
how you did yesterday and how you feeling today.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
I'm good. Today's ski we had a one and oh
the East Carolina team total, Man got the good side
of the half last night because we had a team
total over twenty seven and a half. They got the
twenty eight. Maybe should have been more, but we'll take it.
Was a win. So for the week now Monday till
now seven and oh so, very very happy with the
way things are going this week. Hopefully we keep that going.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
It's seven and oh, can't beat that. Nice work on that.
Shout out to Latino Unicorn ninety nine for reposting a stream.
Definitely helps us out. And let's get to it. Don't
have the most time today and we have a good
amount to talk about, so we'll start in the w
ladies first. That means first game in six seventeen, six eighteen,
(01:08):
Las Vegas Aces going to Indiana now to take on
the Fever opened up minus four and a half for
the Aces. It looks like four is a consensus number
in total open one sixty two and a half, not
a whole lot of movement. I'll still call it one
sixty two and a half. I'll still call that the consensus. So,
you know, Indiana, surprise everybody. In that game one, Aces
(01:32):
looked like they took note. You know, they put belt
to ass in game two. Now they got to go
on the road and face this scrappy Fever team once again.
So I think it's pretty interesting to see it open
four and a half. And you know, I see even
the three and a half out there right now. They
think that Indiana has a real shot to win this game.
(01:54):
And I'm gonna be honest with you, Vino, what I've
seen from the Fever so far this year. They get
help all year long, and they've gotten a lot of help,
and I think being at home tonight, they'll get some
more help again. So that makes me, that makes me
hesitant to think that the Aces can win this game.
Even if I think they're the better team or will
(02:15):
win this game. Even though I think they're the better team,
I'm curious if you see it that way, or are
you looking more at the total.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
Yeah, maybe they need this series to go five and
the help happens. I don't. We shall see. I think
they're probably the right side here in this game. Ski.
To me, it seems like it's a game that comes
down to a bucket either way and three point shots.
So let's say three points either way Friday night at
(02:44):
home in that arena. We'll see if Las Vegas answers
the bell they can. Certainly they've had time enough off
to game plan to understand after two games what Indiana
is all about. How limited. They are certainly deep and
shut Indiana down in game two. But Kelsey Mitchell wasn't
productive in game two. I would expect she's productive here
(03:05):
in game three, and this is probably the game to
get Indiana's A plus effort. I think game one, even
though they won it, it was more catching the Aces
by surprise or tired than anything else. Game two, Aces
were well aware of the fever's presence. Like you say,
built to ask now. Game three is where Indiana gives
(03:26):
you forty minutes of what I would consider to be
a good effort. I'm hoping that it works this way
because my vision is to play Indiana tonight, come back
with Las Vegas in game four, and then have Vegas
win that series in five. I didn't look ski, but
I am going to look right now. So the Aces
are still kind of costly at this point. If they
(03:47):
lose this game, I would probably come back with a
series play on the Aces if they go down to one,
because I do think they can win on the road,
and I do think they would clinch it at home
in game five. So for me, best case scenarios, if
Indiana gets the money here, I played them very very
slightly plus four. We'll see how it goes. But I
just think that they'll be ready for this one.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
I think they'll be ready to be man, says Fever
nine and Oh against the spread at home number one
points per game. He's hesitant because of how Vegas has
played lately. Nine and Oh is underdogs, he says at home. Yeah,
this one is scary if you like the Asis casey,
I know she likes the Aces, and she's saying she's
(04:30):
scared right there, So I can't talk you off of
looking towards the Fever from a total perspective here, Robino,
you saw, I mean, if the Fever are going to
be in the game or win. I mean to me,
it seems like it's not going to be a shootout,
like they don't have the personnel anymore to really go
bucket for bucket, So I would think we see a
(04:52):
good defensive effort from them. Is that how you see it?
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Yeah? I think we just go back to Game one,
remember when Asia was complaining all the physical play rightfully so,
but I think you and I even talked about it
on the last show that Indiana has kind of resorted
to that inside physical type stuff, which they really weren't
to start the season, but because of their personnel and
their lack of depth right now, they have to be.
So I'm with you. I think that this one takes
(05:18):
on a real playoff type atmosphere type style and asking
for what do we need here? Eighty two eighty one
seems like a lot to me, So I think under
one sixty two and a half even I'm looking here
and you can find I don't know how stale this
line may be or if it's current one sixty three
(05:38):
and a half. That's even better number. Shop at best
you can, but I think under the right way to go.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
Our good stuff, mister Ravino. Let's move it on over
to the next game. That is six nineteen six twenty
Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury opened up minus four and
a half. Looks like for pretty much across the board,
total open one fifty eight and a half and hasn't
moved that much. Another one where I mean, I mean,
(06:07):
we have the split series, but it was surprising to
see Minnesota melt down the way that they did. I mean,
for all season long, they've been a really good second
half team, especially, so that just caught my attention. That
makes me think that we should be, you know, giving
Phoenix a little bit more credit and taking them more
seriously maybe than some others have. I think they're another
(06:29):
team that's live to win tonight. I'm worried about the
Minnesota links after that last game. How are you viewing
this one?
Speaker 2 (06:36):
You know the power ratings that I keep Ski actually
said both of these road favorites should have been one
and a half, not four or four and a half
like we see out there. So I think maybe they're
both a little bit overpriced, of course, and we've seen
money towards the dogs, so maybe my numbers are fairly decent,
(06:59):
but minutes soa is scary. However, all that being said,
when we talked about this game the other day, it
saw to the bad issues developing a pattern. Right, lousy
game ones, come right back game too, probably play well
again here at home again the Friday night atmosphere at
home Phoenix is a tough building to play in, and
(07:20):
so it comes down really to the shooting of both here.
Minnesota hasn't had that true good shooting night yet. I
wonder if that happens here tonight in this game. If so,
I feel like Phoenix could probably match it. I was
leaning toward the total over a little bit in this
(07:40):
game at fifty eight and a half, thought maybe this
could reach sixty, but I haven't played it. I do
think Phoenix is live is an underdog. If they're going
to stay in this series, it's got to be with
this game. I think, you know, they probably want to
win them both and not have to go back to Minnesota.
So Phoenix probably for the side I think over where
(08:01):
the total is concerned. Last game, I'm trying to remember
what it was before overtime struck. I'm looking here, seventy nine,
seventy nine, so that was one fifty eight before it
got to overtime. Switch wouldn't have cleared this number. But
Minnesota fell apart in the second half the same way
Phoenix fell apart in the second half in Game one.
It's funny how each team has played a miserable second
(08:24):
half so far. Correction takes place, maybe we get that
extra bucket and get over.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
I don't know. I see it a little bit different here.
I mean, the only game that these teams have played,
like out of the last maybe six plus even meetings
that's gone over has been because of overtime. Like, these
are two really good defensive teams, and that's what we've
seen every time they play. I don't know that that
will change in this matchup. So I'm a little bit
(08:52):
opposite on.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
That one real quick too, Ski, Just to your point
about under possibly, I remember coming on the other day
and saying there were hardly any free throw shot in
Game one. There were only ten total, and there weren't
many in Game two either. Somehow, these teams play foul
proof basketball, and if you're not getting extra points from
the free throw line. It does make it a little
(09:13):
more difficult to get over.
Speaker 1 (09:17):
All right. Uh so you think you think we'll see
what the whistles do.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
We'll see what the whistles do.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
I mean they make a big difference, a big deal. Well,
how the game was gonna go, So we shall see.
Brian h I would think it's more of an underday
than overday. I think that's how he's looking at it. There.
B Man says, links where minus fourteen hundred to win
the series? Now minus three thirty? So, I mean that
(09:47):
tells you everything, right there, A little bit of worry
for this Minnesota team that looked like a juggernaut all
season long?
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Are you're still hanging out to that Phoenix title? Tan too? Right?
Speaker 1 (10:00):
I am? What is it? Plus eighteen hundred? I believe
it was let's go. We're not mad if if Phoenix
want to compete, I'm very good with that. I would
love to see the Mercury in the finals. And then
you know, just decide to do with that ticket. I mean,
I know what I'll do. I'll go ahead and edge
it because I put a few units on plus eighteen hundred.
(10:23):
All right, college football, Rob, You know we have FSU
in Virginia. I think this one opened up higher, like
closer to the nine area. My bad, my ice cream froze.
But it's come down. I did even see it dip
down past the seven in the total. You can correct
(10:46):
me if I'm wrong here, Rob. You know when I
when I looked at it earlier this morning, I think
it was it was lower. Now I'm seeing sixty and
a half. So I didn't do as much research as
you on this one. How are you seeing FSU in Virginia?
Speaker 2 (11:00):
Yeah, I played this one and I played. I've been
a proponent of Virginia offensively this season.
Speaker 1 (11:08):
Ski.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
It got me paid again. Last week they played Stanford.
The total was set at forty nine. Virginia scored forty
eight by themselves. I think a lot of people were
slow to the table. It's what we try to do
in this business, right. We try to see things before
the odds maker can see them. Be a little proactive
at worked last week. They're catching on somewhat here because
FSU has played really good offensive football to both teams.
(11:31):
Good at the quarterback position. But let's give a lot
of credit to Thomas Castianos, the BC transfer that went
to Florida State, predicted over the summer that they could
beat Alabama, went out and did it, and they haven't
looked back since. Virginia gained five hundred and ninety total
yards last week. I think it's a second week in
a row they put up over five hundred yards. FSU
(11:52):
has been tattooing everybody after Alabama. The competition hasn't been great.
That being said, Virginia's defense isn't that. It's just this
game sets up as two upper tier offensive units against
a Virginia defensive unit that I would say is average
at best, maybe less, and a Florida State, you know,
(12:14):
defensive unit that is still unproven. Played Alabama. It was
Ty Simpson's very first game as a starting quarterback. Ryan Williams,
their star receiver, got knocked out with a concussion in
the fourth quarter in that game. So I don't know
what to make of FSU defensively, but I know that
I believe Virginia's offense is one of the most overlooked
units in the country. So for me, it was over
(12:36):
fifty nine excuse me, fifty nine and a half. And
to your point about this, line. It has bounced. Every
time it seems to get the sixty sixty and a half,
another group comes back and pushes it down a half,
up a half, down a half. We'll see where it closes.
To me, it'll reach the key numbers sixty one and
we can get paid with an over.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
Good stuff on that. Tyler flowers like he got a
good number on this one, up and over as well,
and we'll see where that total ends up there. Now,
you know, I'm gonna open it up and we're gonna
spray aboard a little bit here.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
Let's go.
Speaker 1 (13:12):
Yeah, you know how I like to do NFL. I'm
I'm not long winded, but I have a good amount
of opinions on some of these games in the NFL
Week four. So we'll just put the banner up like
that and I'll go down the list. Actually, I mean,
I have something I played that I really really love.
I have something else I'm really looking to play, and
(13:32):
I have some question marks on other ones that could
help me push me towards some So let's start like this.
We will go We'll go Detroit and Cleveland. This screen
says the opener was nine and a half. It's up
as high as I mean, I see a ten and
a half out there, but earlier in the week there
(13:54):
were eights. There were eight and a half. I know
because I took one minus on the Lions. So my
thought process was pretty much. I mean, we saw a
pretty good game from that Cleveland defense. You know, probably
would be satisfied after getting that w the Lions. I mean,
(14:15):
I don't think the Cleveland is that good. Their defense
is solid, but their offense stinks. They weren't able to
score versus the Bengals. They weren't able to score versus
it was another bad defensive team that I'm blanking out
on right now. So I'm just not really impressed with
what I've seen from them offensively. And because of that,
how can they keep up with this Lions team that's
you know what thirty eight points? Like? This Lions offense
(14:39):
is starting to get into a rhythm now after that
first game, and we've seen when they get into this
rhythm going back to last season. I mean, it just
continues on and on and on. So I want to
ride that that rhythm, especially with Detroit here at home.
I think they can name their number, and I don't
think Cleveland's offense can keep up. So I think Detroit
is the right side in that game. Any thought from you, yeah, I.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
Think real quick, Ski, where Cleveland's concerned. The asset that
they have is not only the defense, but it's basically
Miles Garrett in that defensive line right and Detroit, if
nothing else, they showed us last week that they're still
one of the best offensive lines in the league because
they drove Baltimore backwards all game long and ran it
(15:23):
down there at the roads. And if Cleveland is unable
to match up, you know, defensive line against offensive line,
it's gonna be another blow. I think real quick here
when you just look back at their schedule. They went
to Baltimore, lost forty one to seventeen. Final scores a
little bit deceptive because they didn't give up a lot
of yards to Baltimore in that game, but they gave
up a lot of points thirty one second half points.
(15:46):
Detroit to me just seems to be a steamroller right now,
So I would only play their side in this game. Again,
to your point about the Cleveland offense, it's very very hard.
A lot of times with this price tag, you would
say the dog has the ability to back door cover
the game. I know it's the NFL and weird stuff happens,
(16:07):
but Cleveland just doesn't have that backdoor ability. It's not
the team that goes down the field really quick behind
Joe Flacco and and real fast. Detroit sacked Lamar Jackson
how many times last week? And now they get the
tee off on Joe Flacco. Could be a real long
day for the Cleveland offense.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
I'm in agreement on that. Yeah, I'm in agreement with
you on that d You got nine point five, Brian
says Cleveland plus nine. But that Cleveland defense better at
home than on the road. Yeah, I want to say.
They gave up like twenty seven points per game on
the road last season, So I want to fade them.
So let's keep going down the list. Let's talk about
(16:50):
I'm just throwing the games out to day. I mean,
if you, if you have something you want to stop on,
keep throwing Sam Frandon Jacksonville. I think I mean open
minus three. I see a lot of three still right there.
Three and a half's out there. Total went up from
forty four and after forty seven. My thought process here
(17:11):
is number one, Jacksonville is not that good Jacksonville's defense
sucks and the offense is just untrustworthy in my opinion.
When I look at the other side, San Fran, yes,
they've been there, a little bit banged up, right. Kittle
will not be playing, but I'm pretty sure both of
(17:31):
the receivers, is it Pershaw and Juwan, They're both gonna
be available to play. And I'm not mistaken Rock Purty
looks like he's gonna be available to play here. Right.
So we saw this team look pretty good with mac Jones,
and I've seen Brock party for an entire season without
(17:51):
any weapons, like everybody was hurt last year and he
still was, you know, getting the ball or it needs
to go. I trust him more than I trust Trevor Lawrence.
I trusted forty nine or defense more than I trusted
Jaguars defense. This is one of those situations where I
would prefer to just bet San Fran to win. Can
you talk me off of that?
Speaker 2 (18:10):
No? No, And for a lot of the reasons that
he said a San Francisco. Somehow Someway has managed to
win two divisional games Seattle and Arizona when they had
no weaponry at all. Last week, it was Christian McCaffrey
and Mac Jones. They had no George Kittle's been out
since the first week against Seattle. When they beat Seattle,
Kittle went out in the second quarter, didn't have Jennings.
(18:33):
They're running around with only Christian McCaffrey in the backfield
doing every day. It still won the game somehow Someway
and won it by more than three points. I think
they won that one seventeen thirteen something like that. So
they've proven that they can win based upon defense, based
upon doing just enough on offense against teams that, in
my estimation, are better than Jacksonville. Seattle certainly is better
(18:54):
than Jacksonville. Arizona, I would say is a little better
than Jacksonville. Jacksonville begged to be beaten by Houston last week.
I had Houston, you know, rip up that ticket. But
I mean, Houston had every opportunity to beat Jacksonville last
week because Jacksonville couldn't pull away. Now you're gonna send
them on the road West Coast. It's a non conference game,
(19:17):
which sometimes those games get a little looser where points
are concerned. Because I was little, it was a little
head scratching to me ski to see the total go
from forty four to forty seven, Like, why is it
going there? Because San Francis should be able to keep
Jacksonville quiet in San Francisco, all their weapons aren't back.
But it is non conference. All that being said, San
(19:38):
Francisco watched Seattle win and go to three to three
and one last night. So as far as keeping pace
in the division, you want to win here. I thought
this price was cheap for San Francisco. I don't know
that these tour in the same class. So I'm with
you there. I do like San Francisco good stuff.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
I'm glad you agree with me. That makes me feel
even more confident. Pariz asking about anything on tennis, I
haven't had a chance to look at I am still
on the road, got a lot of stuff going, hadn't
been able to look ahead the tennis yet. And when
I finish this show, in the next show, I'm going
to be driving back home for a few hours, so
I might not get a chance to look at tennis
(20:19):
until this evening. To keep going down the list, I mean,
a lot of stuff stands out to me here. Ralbi.
You know, all right, let's see, can you let's go
Why why are the Patriots laying five and a half points, Like,
(20:40):
what have we seen from them to where they're supposed
to be a five and a half favorite versus really anybody?
That's kind of how I feel about the same thing
I said about the Falcons last week, like what have
we seen to make us think that they should be
expected to win by touchdowns?
Speaker 2 (20:53):
Now?
Speaker 1 (20:54):
I just don't see it. From the Panther side, the
defense surprisingly has looked good this year, a big improvement
from what we saw last year where they couldn't stop
a nosebleed. And at the same time, what I said,
I mean what I said about so not this past
game the week before, from that second half of the
(21:17):
game through this pass game for Carolina, that offense is
looked ahead of a lot better. They look competent, they
look good getting five and a half points. I know
they're not at home. I just I can't lay five
and a half with the Patriots. I really want to
get there with the Panthers. How are you viewing in it?
But I have to say, well, I give I do
give the Panthers defense more credit than the Patriots defense.
(21:39):
So y'all want to get there with the Panthers? How
are you feeling about this one, Rob, You know.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
Yeah, it's funny. I've talked to a lot of people
about this game, and the number one argument I hear
from them is Carolina one thirty to nothing last week,
they're going on the road. Now it ain't gonna happen again.
And I'm thinking, well, why not not not to win
thirty to nothing? But why would you discount carol lineup
for that reason? You know what I mean? Because I'm
of the opinion I'm on the game, but I'm on
(22:05):
the total because I feel like New England's past defense
has been so bad. And I'll just add on to
your point about Carolina's offense beginning to look confident. We
saw Bryce Young the end of last year start to
turn it around. First game wasn't good, we get it,
but it's been pretty good ever since, and New England
hasn't stopped anybody through the air. So I feel like
Carolina can get their share, and New England, to their credit,
(22:26):
pretty good offensively at this point in time, and Carolina
not the best defense in the world. So to me,
this total being listed at less than forty four twenty
four to twenty gets me paid twenty seven to seventeen
gets me paid, et cetera, et cetera. I like that
angle of it, and I think if you like, like
I do, Carolina's ability to move the football, then you
(22:50):
have to like plus five and a half. I mean,
it would take a rash of turnovers in my estimation.
That sets New England up to really not cover here.
New England's not They win games by huge margins, so
I would have trouble taking the favorite here. I could
only look dog, but mostly I think this one's going
to get over forty three and a half.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
All right. I mean I did consider the first half over,
but I just I don't know. I like to side
a little bit more, so I'll leave that to you.
Steve says Man. Panthers. They don't have much on offense.
Who is Bryce throwing the ball too? I mean, how
(23:33):
did they score thirty points last week? Did they score
a defensive touchdown? I don't remember.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
I mean I thought you were asking him now.
Speaker 1 (23:44):
I'm just trying to remember myself here because I know
I can't remember. But uh, anyway, they look good in
that second half. The same people through two in the
second half of you know, prior to the last game,
and they just come off a thirty zero game. Where
are we? Why are we talking about this?
Speaker 2 (24:03):
They gave up twenty seven to the Dolphins. That game
hit sixty, all.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Right, you know, let's keep going. I think I like
Carolina there, all right. Let me ask you this. The
other side, Atlanta looks so terrible in that zero to
thirty loss. Right now, they're at home laying the short number.
(24:32):
Washington doesn't have Jade and Daniels. I don't know, after
getting embarrassed like that, I would think you get a
really good effort from Atlanta at home, back home after
a couple of road games in a row, too. I
know they're happy to be home. I would try to
find as many reasons as I can to back Atlanta.
Speaker 3 (24:50):
Do you have any They already beat the backup quarterback
against Minnesota a couple of weeks ago, right Their defense
absolutely took Minnesota apart in that game.
Speaker 2 (25:04):
Minnesota was without some offensive linemen. But Washington without Jade
and Daniels just isn't Washington. And I think, you know,
I think with these NFL teams and these defenses that
are good enough to do with ski see against Washington
is let's just go ahead, and stack the box and
take away the run. Jade and Daniels could beat us,
but we don't think we can get beat by the backup,
(25:25):
and I'd agree with that. I think Atlanta's way good
enough defensively. I don't think Washington is in that game
where Atlanta beat Minnesota, which is a Brian Flores defense,
a better defense than what Washington brings to the table.
They had enough big plays out of Bijon Robinson and
enough pass completions out of Michael Pennox to get it done,
and I don't know why they can't get it done here.
(25:47):
That home field means something in Atlanta, so at under
a field goal, I think it's probably the right side.
I'd have a hard time with the Commanders. Everything they
do offenatively, he's predicated on Daniels, and without him they
didn't look the same to me last week, So I
don't know how that's gonna change a whole bunch on
the road here against Atlanta.
Speaker 1 (26:09):
Mariota man, m I mean, I'm willing to bet against
that guy for as many more games as he plays.
I'll just say that you don't have to. It didn't
take too much talking into to fade Mariota for me. Oh,
we're you gonna say something there? Ready to keep going?
Speaker 2 (26:26):
No, No, I see you studying there. I know you're throwing,
So I'm just waiting to catch another one.
Speaker 1 (26:33):
All right. Tampa Bay and Eagles, I think it's I mean,
it opened two and a half. It did cross the
three and go to three and a half for Philadelphia
on the road. But and this is one where you
can correct me if I'm wrong here, because I'm just
speaking from the top of my head. Philadelphia hasn't been
like like steamrolling or killing opponents. They've been playing relatively
(26:57):
close games right up a Bay, They've been damn good.
I want to say fourteen and six as an underdog recently.
So them being at home here, I know they're a
little banged up, but when I see them catching points,
I tend to try to find one to fine reasons
to back them three and a half. I mean, you
(27:18):
could you could do one of those seven point teachers
and get ten and a half and feel really good
about it. And if you are betting a seven point teasers,
you want to better that bed online. I'm gonna tell
you that right now. In general, I think teasers have
really good eyes at bet online. I'll just throw that
out there, but I want to try to get there
with Tampa Bay at home. Is there any reason for
(27:39):
you to talk me off of that.
Speaker 2 (27:43):
I'm trying to wait on the injury report. Obviously, not
having Mike Evans now is critical for Tampa Bay. They're
already without Chris Godwin, who has a question mark next
to his name for this week. He could return. That's
part of the weight on the injury report. Tristan Wurfs,
the left tackle, it's another part of the weight on
the injury report. Didn't play last week. They've skated by
(28:05):
barely field goal against Atlanta, one point against Houston on
that Monday night er, and then two points against the
Jets last week. And it's mostly do because they just
haven't been healthy. Ski. I would love to be against
Philadelphia because I don't think Philadelphia's you know, they're not
super Bowl Philadelphia, let's put it that way. Should have
(28:26):
got beaten last week by the Rams. It went their way.
Give them credit, but they haven't shown especially on the
defensive side and in that secondary. It's been a problem
since the offseason. They've tried to correct it. You can
throw on this team, they haven't been able to correct it.
And Baker Mayfield, if there's one thing he can do
when he has the weaponry, he can shred you. But
(28:49):
they're just so light on receivers. If Godwin doesn't play,
I'd have a hard time betting that team without Mike Evans,
without Chris Godwin. Just in that instance, Philadelphia to me,
has too much your offense for them.
Speaker 1 (29:02):
All Right, That's what I need to think about a
little bit more. I'm gonna just group a couple together
and if any of them catch your attention, we can
talk about it a little bit. Buffalo has not been
good as a double digit favorite. They didn't cover versus
Miami last week. I know the Saints have been terrible,
but you're getting I mean, it's a three possession game
(29:24):
right there with the point spread, it's New Orleans or
past for me. With that Tennessee and Houston. To see
Houston laying minus seven as bad as they've been, it's
kind of standing out to me. But my eye tests,
I can't trust Houston. So now that I'm saying that
out loud, I'm gonna go ahead and pass second, go
(29:46):
ahead and leave that one alone. So I guess that
New Orleans and Buffalo and then we have I mean,
Kansas City. Are they dead? Baltimore? Baltimore defense looks so poor.
I think that Mahomes can find a way to win,
but I know Baltimore will be very hungry off of
a loss. So any thoughts on Baltimore case New Orleans Buffalo.
Speaker 2 (30:12):
Well, for Buffalo, it's just the interest level, right Ski.
They do have a divisional game next week which would
be more important. It's against New England. They'll be a
big favorite again, but it's still AFC East game, which
is the most important to them. So how much of
an interest level they have against New Orleans is probably
your biggest questionnaire. It's a little bit of a tough
travel spot for New Orleans. Go to Denver, get whacked,
(30:34):
come all the way back east to play Buffalo. If
Buffalo wants to lay it on, they can, but I
just don't know that they care to. It could be
a get in, get out type situation. Or before I
even say that, it could be one where they come
out lazy in New Orleans gets the first half. So
it's difficult. I can make counter arguments each way. Baltimore
(30:57):
Casey I'm just gonna say that with Xavier Worthy back,
thank goodness, Trevor Travis Kelsey hasn't you know, put him
out for six weeks by colliding with him in that
first game. But with Worthy back, with Hollywood Brown with
Kelsey gives Mahomes more weapons and any team so far
(31:18):
it's had offensive weaponry has lit up the Ravens. The
Bills got him for forty one, Detroit just got him
for thirty eight, and those games went flying over the total.
I wouldn't be surprised if this one gets over. The
total to forty eight and a half to me looks
too low. Baltimore can still score, they don't have any
problem doing that, but they don't stop anybody. And some
of it's due to injury for sure on that side
(31:40):
of the football. So that's the way I would look
at those two Buffalo Like I say, harked me to
make a case either way, but I think Baltimore Kansas
City gonna go.
Speaker 1 (31:47):
Over good stuff. I agree with that total as well.
We've really talked about almost every game. Last thing I'm
gonna say here is and this is my teams six
and a half. Oh he ain't no way, hell I'm
letting it down with the targets.
Speaker 2 (32:06):
Man.
Speaker 1 (32:07):
I know they've looked all right, they looked good so far,
but on the road a touchdown. Yeah, I'm not even
gonna break it down. It's just they're gonna have to
make me a believer in rob you know. So, I
have a feeling you're not gonna talk me off of
Giants plus six and a half.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
No, I won't talk at all because I've done enough
work with you to know that Chargers as favorite. I
learned my lesson, you know what. I've listened to you
a couple of times. It proves to be right. They're
just not that great of a favorite. Does that you know?
Does that trend begin to change the longer Jim Harbor.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
Lady, it has lately. I'm not gonna lie.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
And so that's the only thing that you're looking at
here is maybe the coaching change makes a shift in
that trend. But it's it's a big price to lay
on the road.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
Yeah. Absolutely not for my money.
Speaker 2 (32:57):
And you're gonna get Jackson dark right, You're not gonna
have Rush Wilson, the rookie quarterback that game. And we'll
see if he brings any life to the team, which
Russ really wasn't doing unless he was playing the Cowboys
who can't stop anybody.
Speaker 1 (33:11):
And that's where I mean, I get it. Everybody wants
to fade the rookie quarterback. I'm not a dark guy.
I don't think he's that good. And when you remind
me of Jackson Dark, it pulls me back in a
little bit. Rob, you know, I'm not really a believer,
but but yeah, there's no way that I'm taking the Chargers,
(33:33):
all right. I think we did a pretty good job here.
We talked two WNBA games, the college football game, damn
near the entire NFL slate, and now I'm about that
time to move it over the best bets. So I
don't have anything to toss up on the screen here, Rob,
you no, I know. Actually we do still have Weekend
(33:55):
Warrior going, right, So if you want to be involved
with every football play release from you know you can
get from Rob myself. Whoever you want to get it with,
you can get it for forty nine dollars. It includes
five percent plays includes Monday night football, so it's a
good way to get involved there. And outside of that, Rob,
you know, I'm going to pass it back to you,
(34:16):
I'll ask you if there's anything you would like to promote,
and if you have a best bet for the show,
we'd love to hear it if we If if you
don't have a best bet, it's all good.
Speaker 2 (34:29):
I'll just, you know, double promote the Weekend Warrior Package. Ski.
That's a pretty good deal. I have to say. You
get all three days Saturday, Sunday, Monday, every football play
release for just forty nine bucks. Wager Talk does a
pretty good price reduction on that, from one o eight
I think down to forty nine. So if you're interested
this weekend, absolutely go and pick up a Weekend Warrior
Package over at wadgertalk dot com. I'm gonna leave you
(34:52):
with the best bet here though, because I really believe
Florida State Virginia are getting over sixty points here. I
should say over sixty one because some people that are
gonna bet this now might only see sixties. But do
shop it because there's still places out there showing US
fifty nine and a half. You want to get the
best of the number here. To me, though, would say
it's a dead over game in this case. And like
(35:14):
I said, I've just been high on this Virginia offense.
Oddsmaker's starting to catch up, but maybe not enough in
this contest because Florida State's offense is dynamite two. So
Florida State Virginia over. I'm looking here. I think we
can still get away with fifty nine and a half.
So I'm gonna say over fifty nine and a half.
Speaker 1 (35:33):
All right, good stuff from Robino Before I get to
mind Rizzachi. Let's get to him real quick. He says,
face Ski, he's megatrash, he knows nothing for real, for
real fatom, mostly especially NBA. And he says dart is
good Ski number one. I'm gonna say, Rizachi, ooh love it.
(35:55):
If you have a channel to come talk to these games,
or if you uh, you know, have a track record
of what you've done. I've won six out of eight
years in the NBA, So if you've done better, I'd
love to see it. If you have not, you should
probably just shut the hell up and watch the show.
That's what I'll say. My best bet for the show promo. Actually, first,
(36:17):
I've hit eight out of nine NBA playoffs. My bet,
I got a phone call right there. I've hit in
the WNBA playoffs and I have a five percent up
and available for tonight, so if you'd like to be involved,
you guys know where to find it. You can see
both Rob you know, and my profile page at the
bottom of the screen. And my best bet for the show,
(36:40):
I'm gonna give you football one that I played. The
numbers not there anymore, but I took the lines minus
eight and a half. I do think it's a double
digit win. I gave you a lot of reasons why
the offensive rhythm should continue, and that's where my money
will be this weekend. So appreciate everybody in the chat.
A lot of great people. Brian eight says, great jobs
(37:02):
can Rob appreciate it. Let's win this weekend, Mark A, Steve,
appreciate all you good guys out there, so if you know,
always tell you too. I appreciate you taking the time
to come break these games down with me. Helps my process.
I'm sure you help everybody else out there as well. Chat.
Most of you guys, except for one Apple, we appreciate
(37:23):
you as well. A lot of good people, great efforts.
We all just trying to help each other win. So
that's the luck on all your action this weekend. We'll
be back again on Monday, and we will catch you
all then
What's up everybody. Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.
If you are new, we always start this show a
by being transparent. Yesterday I did take the Cardinals and
they fell short, so got to do a little bit
better in the NFL. But we do have two WNBA
games to talk about today as well as some football
college football. So back here with mister Ravino. I'm curious
(00:23):
how you did yesterday and how you feeling today.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
I'm good. Today's ski we had a one and oh
the East Carolina team total, Man got the good side
of the half last night because we had a team
total over twenty seven and a half. They got the
twenty eight. Maybe should have been more, but we'll take it.
Was a win. So for the week now Monday till
now seven and oh so, very very happy with the
way things are going this week. Hopefully we keep that going.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
It's seven and oh, can't beat that. Nice work on that.
Shout out to Latino Unicorn ninety nine for reposting a stream.
Definitely helps us out. And let's get to it. Don't
have the most time today and we have a good
amount to talk about, so we'll start in the w
ladies first. That means first game in six seventeen, six eighteen,
(01:08):
Las Vegas Aces going to Indiana now to take on
the Fever opened up minus four and a half for
the Aces. It looks like four is a consensus number
in total open one sixty two and a half, not
a whole lot of movement. I'll still call it one
sixty two and a half. I'll still call that the consensus. So,
you know, Indiana, surprise everybody. In that game one, Aces
(01:32):
looked like they took note. You know, they put belt
to ass in game two. Now they got to go
on the road and face this scrappy Fever team once again.
So I think it's pretty interesting to see it open
four and a half. And you know, I see even
the three and a half out there right now. They
think that Indiana has a real shot to win this game.
(01:54):
And I'm gonna be honest with you, Vino, what I've
seen from the Fever so far this year. They get
help all year long, and they've gotten a lot of help,
and I think being at home tonight, they'll get some
more help again. So that makes me, that makes me
hesitant to think that the Aces can win this game.
Even if I think they're the better team or will
(02:15):
win this game. Even though I think they're the better team,
I'm curious if you see it that way, or are
you looking more at the total.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
Yeah, maybe they need this series to go five and
the help happens. I don't. We shall see. I think
they're probably the right side here in this game. Ski.
To me, it seems like it's a game that comes
down to a bucket either way and three point shots.
So let's say three points either way Friday night at
(02:44):
home in that arena. We'll see if Las Vegas answers
the bell they can. Certainly they've had time enough off
to game plan to understand after two games what Indiana
is all about. How limited. They are certainly deep and
shut Indiana down in game two. But Kelsey Mitchell wasn't
productive in game two. I would expect she's productive here
(03:05):
in game three, and this is probably the game to
get Indiana's A plus effort. I think game one, even
though they won it, it was more catching the Aces
by surprise or tired than anything else. Game two, Aces
were well aware of the fever's presence. Like you say,
built to ask now. Game three is where Indiana gives
(03:26):
you forty minutes of what I would consider to be
a good effort. I'm hoping that it works this way
because my vision is to play Indiana tonight, come back
with Las Vegas in game four, and then have Vegas
win that series in five. I didn't look ski, but
I am going to look right now. So the Aces
are still kind of costly at this point. If they
(03:47):
lose this game, I would probably come back with a
series play on the Aces if they go down to one,
because I do think they can win on the road,
and I do think they would clinch it at home
in game five. So for me, best case scenarios, if
Indiana gets the money here, I played them very very
slightly plus four. We'll see how it goes. But I
just think that they'll be ready for this one.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
I think they'll be ready to be man, says Fever
nine and Oh against the spread at home number one
points per game. He's hesitant because of how Vegas has
played lately. Nine and Oh is underdogs, he says at home. Yeah,
this one is scary if you like the Asis casey,
I know she likes the Aces, and she's saying she's
(04:30):
scared right there, So I can't talk you off of
looking towards the Fever from a total perspective here, Robino,
you saw, I mean, if the Fever are going to
be in the game or win. I mean to me,
it seems like it's not going to be a shootout,
like they don't have the personnel anymore to really go
bucket for bucket, So I would think we see a
(04:52):
good defensive effort from them. Is that how you see it?
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Yeah? I think we just go back to Game one,
remember when Asia was complaining all the physical play rightfully so,
but I think you and I even talked about it
on the last show that Indiana has kind of resorted
to that inside physical type stuff, which they really weren't
to start the season, but because of their personnel and
their lack of depth right now, they have to be.
So I'm with you. I think that this one takes
(05:18):
on a real playoff type atmosphere type style and asking
for what do we need here? Eighty two eighty one
seems like a lot to me, So I think under
one sixty two and a half even I'm looking here
and you can find I don't know how stale this
line may be or if it's current one sixty three
(05:38):
and a half. That's even better number. Shop at best
you can, but I think under the right way to go.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
Our good stuff, mister Ravino. Let's move it on over
to the next game. That is six nineteen six twenty
Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury opened up minus four and
a half. Looks like for pretty much across the board,
total open one fifty eight and a half and hasn't
moved that much. Another one where I mean, I mean,
(06:07):
we have the split series, but it was surprising to
see Minnesota melt down the way that they did. I mean,
for all season long, they've been a really good second
half team, especially, so that just caught my attention. That
makes me think that we should be, you know, giving
Phoenix a little bit more credit and taking them more
seriously maybe than some others have. I think they're another
(06:29):
team that's live to win tonight. I'm worried about the
Minnesota links after that last game. How are you viewing
this one?
Speaker 2 (06:36):
You know the power ratings that I keep Ski actually
said both of these road favorites should have been one
and a half, not four or four and a half
like we see out there. So I think maybe they're
both a little bit overpriced, of course, and we've seen
money towards the dogs, so maybe my numbers are fairly decent,
(06:59):
but minutes soa is scary. However, all that being said,
when we talked about this game the other day, it
saw to the bad issues developing a pattern. Right, lousy
game ones, come right back game too, probably play well
again here at home again the Friday night atmosphere at
home Phoenix is a tough building to play in, and
(07:20):
so it comes down really to the shooting of both here.
Minnesota hasn't had that true good shooting night yet. I
wonder if that happens here tonight in this game. If so,
I feel like Phoenix could probably match it. I was
leaning toward the total over a little bit in this
(07:40):
game at fifty eight and a half, thought maybe this
could reach sixty, but I haven't played it. I do
think Phoenix is live is an underdog. If they're going
to stay in this series, it's got to be with
this game. I think, you know, they probably want to
win them both and not have to go back to Minnesota.
So Phoenix probably for the side I think over where
(08:01):
the total is concerned. Last game, I'm trying to remember
what it was before overtime struck. I'm looking here, seventy nine,
seventy nine, so that was one fifty eight before it
got to overtime. Switch wouldn't have cleared this number. But
Minnesota fell apart in the second half the same way
Phoenix fell apart in the second half in Game one.
It's funny how each team has played a miserable second
(08:24):
half so far. Correction takes place, maybe we get that
extra bucket and get over.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
I don't know. I see it a little bit different here.
I mean, the only game that these teams have played,
like out of the last maybe six plus even meetings
that's gone over has been because of overtime. Like, these
are two really good defensive teams, and that's what we've
seen every time they play. I don't know that that
will change in this matchup. So I'm a little bit
(08:52):
opposite on.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
That one real quick too, Ski, Just to your point
about under possibly, I remember coming on the other day
and saying there were hardly any free throw shot in
Game one. There were only ten total, and there weren't
many in Game two either. Somehow, these teams play foul
proof basketball, and if you're not getting extra points from
the free throw line. It does make it a little
(09:13):
more difficult to get over.
Speaker 1 (09:17):
All right. Uh so you think you think we'll see
what the whistles do.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
We'll see what the whistles do.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
I mean they make a big difference, a big deal. Well,
how the game was gonna go, So we shall see.
Brian h I would think it's more of an underday
than overday. I think that's how he's looking at it. There.
B Man says, links where minus fourteen hundred to win
the series? Now minus three thirty? So, I mean that
(09:47):
tells you everything, right there, A little bit of worry
for this Minnesota team that looked like a juggernaut all
season long?
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Are you're still hanging out to that Phoenix title? Tan too? Right?
Speaker 1 (10:00):
I am? What is it? Plus eighteen hundred? I believe
it was let's go. We're not mad if if Phoenix
want to compete, I'm very good with that. I would
love to see the Mercury in the finals. And then
you know, just decide to do with that ticket. I mean,
I know what I'll do. I'll go ahead and edge
it because I put a few units on plus eighteen hundred.
(10:23):
All right, college football, Rob, You know we have FSU
in Virginia. I think this one opened up higher, like
closer to the nine area. My bad, my ice cream froze.
But it's come down. I did even see it dip
down past the seven in the total. You can correct
(10:46):
me if I'm wrong here, Rob. You know when I
when I looked at it earlier this morning, I think
it was it was lower. Now I'm seeing sixty and
a half. So I didn't do as much research as
you on this one. How are you seeing FSU in Virginia?
Speaker 2 (11:00):
Yeah, I played this one and I played. I've been
a proponent of Virginia offensively this season.
Speaker 1 (11:08):
Ski.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
It got me paid again. Last week they played Stanford.
The total was set at forty nine. Virginia scored forty
eight by themselves. I think a lot of people were
slow to the table. It's what we try to do
in this business, right. We try to see things before
the odds maker can see them. Be a little proactive
at worked last week. They're catching on somewhat here because
FSU has played really good offensive football to both teams.
(11:31):
Good at the quarterback position. But let's give a lot
of credit to Thomas Castianos, the BC transfer that went
to Florida State, predicted over the summer that they could
beat Alabama, went out and did it, and they haven't
looked back since. Virginia gained five hundred and ninety total
yards last week. I think it's a second week in
a row they put up over five hundred yards. FSU
(11:52):
has been tattooing everybody after Alabama. The competition hasn't been great.
That being said, Virginia's defense isn't that. It's just this
game sets up as two upper tier offensive units against
a Virginia defensive unit that I would say is average
at best, maybe less, and a Florida State, you know,
(12:14):
defensive unit that is still unproven. Played Alabama. It was
Ty Simpson's very first game as a starting quarterback. Ryan Williams,
their star receiver, got knocked out with a concussion in
the fourth quarter in that game. So I don't know
what to make of FSU defensively, but I know that
I believe Virginia's offense is one of the most overlooked
units in the country. So for me, it was over
(12:36):
fifty nine excuse me, fifty nine and a half. And
to your point about this, line. It has bounced. Every
time it seems to get the sixty sixty and a half,
another group comes back and pushes it down a half,
up a half, down a half. We'll see where it closes.
To me, it'll reach the key numbers sixty one and
we can get paid with an over.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
Good stuff on that. Tyler flowers like he got a
good number on this one, up and over as well,
and we'll see where that total ends up there. Now,
you know, I'm gonna open it up and we're gonna
spray aboard a little bit here.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
Let's go.
Speaker 1 (13:12):
Yeah, you know how I like to do NFL. I'm
I'm not long winded, but I have a good amount
of opinions on some of these games in the NFL
Week four. So we'll just put the banner up like
that and I'll go down the list. Actually, I mean,
I have something I played that I really really love.
I have something else I'm really looking to play, and
(13:32):
I have some question marks on other ones that could
help me push me towards some So let's start like this.
We will go We'll go Detroit and Cleveland. This screen
says the opener was nine and a half. It's up
as high as I mean, I see a ten and
a half out there, but earlier in the week there
(13:54):
were eights. There were eight and a half. I know
because I took one minus on the Lions. So my
thought process was pretty much. I mean, we saw a
pretty good game from that Cleveland defense. You know, probably
would be satisfied after getting that w the Lions. I mean,
(14:15):
I don't think the Cleveland is that good. Their defense
is solid, but their offense stinks. They weren't able to
score versus the Bengals. They weren't able to score versus
it was another bad defensive team that I'm blanking out
on right now. So I'm just not really impressed with
what I've seen from them offensively. And because of that,
how can they keep up with this Lions team that's
you know what thirty eight points? Like? This Lions offense
(14:39):
is starting to get into a rhythm now after that
first game, and we've seen when they get into this
rhythm going back to last season. I mean, it just
continues on and on and on. So I want to
ride that that rhythm, especially with Detroit here at home.
I think they can name their number, and I don't
think Cleveland's offense can keep up. So I think Detroit
is the right side in that game. Any thought from you, yeah, I.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
Think real quick, Ski, where Cleveland's concerned. The asset that
they have is not only the defense, but it's basically
Miles Garrett in that defensive line right and Detroit, if
nothing else, they showed us last week that they're still
one of the best offensive lines in the league because
they drove Baltimore backwards all game long and ran it
(15:23):
down there at the roads. And if Cleveland is unable
to match up, you know, defensive line against offensive line,
it's gonna be another blow. I think real quick here
when you just look back at their schedule. They went
to Baltimore, lost forty one to seventeen. Final scores a
little bit deceptive because they didn't give up a lot
of yards to Baltimore in that game, but they gave
up a lot of points thirty one second half points.
(15:46):
Detroit to me just seems to be a steamroller right now,
So I would only play their side in this game. Again,
to your point about the Cleveland offense, it's very very hard.
A lot of times with this price tag, you would
say the dog has the ability to back door cover
the game. I know it's the NFL and weird stuff happens,
(16:07):
but Cleveland just doesn't have that backdoor ability. It's not
the team that goes down the field really quick behind
Joe Flacco and and real fast. Detroit sacked Lamar Jackson
how many times last week? And now they get the
tee off on Joe Flacco. Could be a real long
day for the Cleveland offense.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
I'm in agreement on that. Yeah, I'm in agreement with
you on that d You got nine point five, Brian
says Cleveland plus nine. But that Cleveland defense better at
home than on the road. Yeah, I want to say.
They gave up like twenty seven points per game on
the road last season, So I want to fade them.
So let's keep going down the list. Let's talk about
(16:50):
I'm just throwing the games out to day. I mean,
if you, if you have something you want to stop on,
keep throwing Sam Frandon Jacksonville. I think I mean open
minus three. I see a lot of three still right there.
Three and a half's out there. Total went up from
forty four and after forty seven. My thought process here
(17:11):
is number one, Jacksonville is not that good Jacksonville's defense
sucks and the offense is just untrustworthy in my opinion.
When I look at the other side, San Fran, yes,
they've been there, a little bit banged up, right. Kittle
will not be playing, but I'm pretty sure both of
(17:31):
the receivers, is it Pershaw and Juwan, They're both gonna
be available to play. And I'm not mistaken Rock Purty
looks like he's gonna be available to play here. Right.
So we saw this team look pretty good with mac Jones,
and I've seen Brock party for an entire season without
(17:51):
any weapons, like everybody was hurt last year and he
still was, you know, getting the ball or it needs
to go. I trust him more than I trust Trevor Lawrence.
I trusted forty nine or defense more than I trusted
Jaguars defense. This is one of those situations where I
would prefer to just bet San Fran to win. Can
you talk me off of that?
Speaker 2 (18:10):
No? No, And for a lot of the reasons that
he said a San Francisco. Somehow Someway has managed to
win two divisional games Seattle and Arizona when they had
no weaponry at all. Last week, it was Christian McCaffrey
and Mac Jones. They had no George Kittle's been out
since the first week against Seattle. When they beat Seattle,
Kittle went out in the second quarter, didn't have Jennings.
(18:33):
They're running around with only Christian McCaffrey in the backfield
doing every day. It still won the game somehow Someway
and won it by more than three points. I think
they won that one seventeen thirteen something like that. So
they've proven that they can win based upon defense, based
upon doing just enough on offense against teams that, in
my estimation, are better than Jacksonville. Seattle certainly is better
(18:54):
than Jacksonville. Arizona, I would say is a little better
than Jacksonville. Jacksonville begged to be beaten by Houston last week.
I had Houston, you know, rip up that ticket. But
I mean, Houston had every opportunity to beat Jacksonville last
week because Jacksonville couldn't pull away. Now you're gonna send
them on the road West Coast. It's a non conference game,
(19:17):
which sometimes those games get a little looser where points
are concerned. Because I was little, it was a little
head scratching to me ski to see the total go
from forty four to forty seven, Like, why is it
going there? Because San Francis should be able to keep
Jacksonville quiet in San Francisco, all their weapons aren't back.
But it is non conference. All that being said, San
(19:38):
Francisco watched Seattle win and go to three to three
and one last night. So as far as keeping pace
in the division, you want to win here. I thought
this price was cheap for San Francisco. I don't know
that these tour in the same class. So I'm with
you there. I do like San Francisco good stuff.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
I'm glad you agree with me. That makes me feel
even more confident. Pariz asking about anything on tennis, I
haven't had a chance to look at I am still
on the road, got a lot of stuff going, hadn't
been able to look ahead the tennis yet. And when
I finish this show, in the next show, I'm going
to be driving back home for a few hours, so
I might not get a chance to look at tennis
(20:19):
until this evening. To keep going down the list, I mean,
a lot of stuff stands out to me here. Ralbi.
You know, all right, let's see, can you let's go
Why why are the Patriots laying five and a half points, Like,
(20:40):
what have we seen from them to where they're supposed
to be a five and a half favorite versus really anybody?
That's kind of how I feel about the same thing
I said about the Falcons last week, like what have
we seen to make us think that they should be
expected to win by touchdowns?
Speaker 2 (20:53):
Now?
Speaker 1 (20:54):
I just don't see it. From the Panther side, the
defense surprisingly has looked good this year, a big improvement
from what we saw last year where they couldn't stop
a nosebleed. And at the same time, what I said,
I mean what I said about so not this past
game the week before, from that second half of the
(21:17):
game through this pass game for Carolina, that offense is
looked ahead of a lot better. They look competent, they
look good getting five and a half points. I know
they're not at home. I just I can't lay five
and a half with the Patriots. I really want to
get there with the Panthers. How are you viewing in it?
But I have to say, well, I give I do
give the Panthers defense more credit than the Patriots defense.
(21:39):
So y'all want to get there with the Panthers? How
are you feeling about this one, Rob, You know.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
Yeah, it's funny. I've talked to a lot of people
about this game, and the number one argument I hear
from them is Carolina one thirty to nothing last week,
they're going on the road. Now it ain't gonna happen again.
And I'm thinking, well, why not not not to win
thirty to nothing? But why would you discount carol lineup
for that reason? You know what I mean? Because I'm
of the opinion I'm on the game, but I'm on
(22:05):
the total because I feel like New England's past defense
has been so bad. And I'll just add on to
your point about Carolina's offense beginning to look confident. We
saw Bryce Young the end of last year start to
turn it around. First game wasn't good, we get it,
but it's been pretty good ever since, and New England
hasn't stopped anybody through the air. So I feel like
Carolina can get their share, and New England, to their credit,
(22:26):
pretty good offensively at this point in time, and Carolina
not the best defense in the world. So to me,
this total being listed at less than forty four twenty
four to twenty gets me paid twenty seven to seventeen
gets me paid, et cetera, et cetera. I like that
angle of it, and I think if you like, like
I do, Carolina's ability to move the football, then you
(22:50):
have to like plus five and a half. I mean,
it would take a rash of turnovers in my estimation.
That sets New England up to really not cover here.
New England's not They win games by huge margins, so
I would have trouble taking the favorite here. I could
only look dog, but mostly I think this one's going
to get over forty three and a half.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
All right. I mean I did consider the first half over,
but I just I don't know. I like to side
a little bit more, so I'll leave that to you.
Steve says Man. Panthers. They don't have much on offense.
Who is Bryce throwing the ball too? I mean, how
(23:33):
did they score thirty points last week? Did they score
a defensive touchdown? I don't remember.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
I mean I thought you were asking him now.
Speaker 1 (23:44):
I'm just trying to remember myself here because I know
I can't remember. But uh, anyway, they look good in
that second half. The same people through two in the
second half of you know, prior to the last game,
and they just come off a thirty zero game. Where
are we? Why are we talking about this?
Speaker 2 (24:03):
They gave up twenty seven to the Dolphins. That game
hit sixty, all.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Right, you know, let's keep going. I think I like
Carolina there, all right. Let me ask you this. The
other side, Atlanta looks so terrible in that zero to
thirty loss. Right now, they're at home laying the short number.
(24:32):
Washington doesn't have Jade and Daniels. I don't know, after
getting embarrassed like that, I would think you get a
really good effort from Atlanta at home, back home after
a couple of road games in a row, too. I
know they're happy to be home. I would try to
find as many reasons as I can to back Atlanta.
Speaker 3 (24:50):
Do you have any They already beat the backup quarterback
against Minnesota a couple of weeks ago, right Their defense
absolutely took Minnesota apart in that game.
Speaker 2 (25:04):
Minnesota was without some offensive linemen. But Washington without Jade
and Daniels just isn't Washington. And I think, you know,
I think with these NFL teams and these defenses that
are good enough to do with ski see against Washington
is let's just go ahead, and stack the box and
take away the run. Jade and Daniels could beat us,
but we don't think we can get beat by the backup,
(25:25):
and I'd agree with that. I think Atlanta's way good
enough defensively. I don't think Washington is in that game
where Atlanta beat Minnesota, which is a Brian Flores defense,
a better defense than what Washington brings to the table.
They had enough big plays out of Bijon Robinson and
enough pass completions out of Michael Pennox to get it done,
and I don't know why they can't get it done here.
(25:47):
That home field means something in Atlanta, so at under
a field goal, I think it's probably the right side.
I'd have a hard time with the Commanders. Everything they
do offenatively, he's predicated on Daniels, and without him they
didn't look the same to me last week, So I
don't know how that's gonna change a whole bunch on
the road here against Atlanta.
Speaker 1 (26:09):
Mariota man, m I mean, I'm willing to bet against
that guy for as many more games as he plays.
I'll just say that you don't have to. It didn't
take too much talking into to fade Mariota for me. Oh,
we're you gonna say something there? Ready to keep going?
Speaker 2 (26:26):
No, No, I see you studying there. I know you're throwing,
So I'm just waiting to catch another one.
Speaker 1 (26:33):
All right. Tampa Bay and Eagles, I think it's I mean,
it opened two and a half. It did cross the
three and go to three and a half for Philadelphia
on the road. But and this is one where you
can correct me if I'm wrong here, because I'm just
speaking from the top of my head. Philadelphia hasn't been
like like steamrolling or killing opponents. They've been playing relatively
(26:57):
close games right up a Bay, They've been damn good.
I want to say fourteen and six as an underdog recently.
So them being at home here, I know they're a
little banged up, but when I see them catching points,
I tend to try to find one to fine reasons
to back them three and a half. I mean, you
(27:18):
could you could do one of those seven point teachers
and get ten and a half and feel really good
about it. And if you are betting a seven point teasers,
you want to better that bed online. I'm gonna tell
you that right now. In general, I think teasers have
really good eyes at bet online. I'll just throw that
out there, but I want to try to get there
with Tampa Bay at home. Is there any reason for
(27:39):
you to talk me off of that.
Speaker 2 (27:43):
I'm trying to wait on the injury report. Obviously, not
having Mike Evans now is critical for Tampa Bay. They're
already without Chris Godwin, who has a question mark next
to his name for this week. He could return. That's
part of the weight on the injury report. Tristan Wurfs,
the left tackle, it's another part of the weight on
the injury report. Didn't play last week. They've skated by
(28:05):
barely field goal against Atlanta, one point against Houston on
that Monday night er, and then two points against the
Jets last week. And it's mostly do because they just
haven't been healthy. Ski. I would love to be against
Philadelphia because I don't think Philadelphia's you know, they're not
super Bowl Philadelphia, let's put it that way. Should have
(28:26):
got beaten last week by the Rams. It went their way.
Give them credit, but they haven't shown especially on the
defensive side and in that secondary. It's been a problem
since the offseason. They've tried to correct it. You can
throw on this team, they haven't been able to correct it.
And Baker Mayfield, if there's one thing he can do
when he has the weaponry, he can shred you. But
(28:49):
they're just so light on receivers. If Godwin doesn't play,
I'd have a hard time betting that team without Mike Evans,
without Chris Godwin. Just in that instance, Philadelphia to me,
has too much your offense for them.
Speaker 1 (29:02):
All Right, That's what I need to think about a
little bit more. I'm gonna just group a couple together
and if any of them catch your attention, we can
talk about it a little bit. Buffalo has not been
good as a double digit favorite. They didn't cover versus
Miami last week. I know the Saints have been terrible,
but you're getting I mean, it's a three possession game
(29:24):
right there with the point spread, it's New Orleans or
past for me. With that Tennessee and Houston. To see
Houston laying minus seven as bad as they've been, it's
kind of standing out to me. But my eye tests,
I can't trust Houston. So now that I'm saying that
out loud, I'm gonna go ahead and pass second, go
(29:46):
ahead and leave that one alone. So I guess that
New Orleans and Buffalo and then we have I mean,
Kansas City. Are they dead? Baltimore? Baltimore defense looks so poor.
I think that Mahomes can find a way to win,
but I know Baltimore will be very hungry off of
a loss. So any thoughts on Baltimore case New Orleans Buffalo.
Speaker 2 (30:12):
Well, for Buffalo, it's just the interest level, right Ski.
They do have a divisional game next week which would
be more important. It's against New England. They'll be a
big favorite again, but it's still AFC East game, which
is the most important to them. So how much of
an interest level they have against New Orleans is probably
your biggest questionnaire. It's a little bit of a tough
travel spot for New Orleans. Go to Denver, get whacked,
(30:34):
come all the way back east to play Buffalo. If
Buffalo wants to lay it on, they can, but I
just don't know that they care to. It could be
a get in, get out type situation. Or before I
even say that, it could be one where they come
out lazy in New Orleans gets the first half. So
it's difficult. I can make counter arguments each way. Baltimore
(30:57):
Casey I'm just gonna say that with Xavier Worthy back,
thank goodness, Trevor Travis Kelsey hasn't you know, put him
out for six weeks by colliding with him in that
first game. But with Worthy back, with Hollywood Brown with
Kelsey gives Mahomes more weapons and any team so far
(31:18):
it's had offensive weaponry has lit up the Ravens. The
Bills got him for forty one, Detroit just got him
for thirty eight, and those games went flying over the total.
I wouldn't be surprised if this one gets over. The
total to forty eight and a half to me looks
too low. Baltimore can still score, they don't have any
problem doing that, but they don't stop anybody. And some
of it's due to injury for sure on that side
(31:40):
of the football. So that's the way I would look
at those two Buffalo Like I say, harked me to
make a case either way, but I think Baltimore Kansas
City gonna go.
Speaker 1 (31:47):
Over good stuff. I agree with that total as well.
We've really talked about almost every game. Last thing I'm
gonna say here is and this is my teams six
and a half. Oh he ain't no way, hell I'm
letting it down with the targets.
Speaker 2 (32:06):
Man.
Speaker 1 (32:07):
I know they've looked all right, they looked good so far,
but on the road a touchdown. Yeah, I'm not even
gonna break it down. It's just they're gonna have to
make me a believer in rob you know. So, I
have a feeling you're not gonna talk me off of
Giants plus six and a half.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
No, I won't talk at all because I've done enough
work with you to know that Chargers as favorite. I
learned my lesson, you know what. I've listened to you
a couple of times. It proves to be right. They're
just not that great of a favorite. Does that you know?
Does that trend begin to change the longer Jim Harbor.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
Lady, it has lately. I'm not gonna lie.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
And so that's the only thing that you're looking at
here is maybe the coaching change makes a shift in
that trend. But it's it's a big price to lay
on the road.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
Yeah. Absolutely not for my money.
Speaker 2 (32:57):
And you're gonna get Jackson dark right, You're not gonna
have Rush Wilson, the rookie quarterback that game. And we'll
see if he brings any life to the team, which
Russ really wasn't doing unless he was playing the Cowboys
who can't stop anybody.
Speaker 1 (33:11):
And that's where I mean, I get it. Everybody wants
to fade the rookie quarterback. I'm not a dark guy.
I don't think he's that good. And when you remind
me of Jackson Dark, it pulls me back in a
little bit. Rob, you know, I'm not really a believer,
but but yeah, there's no way that I'm taking the Chargers,
(33:33):
all right. I think we did a pretty good job here.
We talked two WNBA games, the college football game, damn
near the entire NFL slate, and now I'm about that
time to move it over the best bets. So I
don't have anything to toss up on the screen here, Rob,
you no, I know. Actually we do still have Weekend
(33:55):
Warrior going, right, So if you want to be involved
with every football play release from you know you can
get from Rob myself. Whoever you want to get it with,
you can get it for forty nine dollars. It includes
five percent plays includes Monday night football, so it's a
good way to get involved there. And outside of that, Rob,
you know, I'm going to pass it back to you,
(34:16):
I'll ask you if there's anything you would like to promote,
and if you have a best bet for the show,
we'd love to hear it if we If if you
don't have a best bet, it's all good.
Speaker 2 (34:29):
I'll just, you know, double promote the Weekend Warrior Package. Ski.
That's a pretty good deal. I have to say. You
get all three days Saturday, Sunday, Monday, every football play
release for just forty nine bucks. Wager Talk does a
pretty good price reduction on that, from one o eight
I think down to forty nine. So if you're interested
this weekend, absolutely go and pick up a Weekend Warrior
Package over at wadgertalk dot com. I'm gonna leave you
(34:52):
with the best bet here though, because I really believe
Florida State Virginia are getting over sixty points here. I
should say over sixty one because some people that are
gonna bet this now might only see sixties. But do
shop it because there's still places out there showing US
fifty nine and a half. You want to get the
best of the number here. To me, though, would say
it's a dead over game in this case. And like
(35:14):
I said, I've just been high on this Virginia offense.
Oddsmaker's starting to catch up, but maybe not enough in
this contest because Florida State's offense is dynamite two. So
Florida State Virginia over. I'm looking here. I think we
can still get away with fifty nine and a half.
So I'm gonna say over fifty nine and a half.
Speaker 1 (35:33):
All right, good stuff from Robino Before I get to
mind Rizzachi. Let's get to him real quick. He says,
face Ski, he's megatrash, he knows nothing for real, for
real fatom, mostly especially NBA. And he says dart is
good Ski number one. I'm gonna say, Rizachi, ooh love it.
(35:55):
If you have a channel to come talk to these games,
or if you uh, you know, have a track record
of what you've done. I've won six out of eight
years in the NBA, So if you've done better, I'd
love to see it. If you have not, you should
probably just shut the hell up and watch the show.
That's what I'll say. My best bet for the show promo. Actually, first,
(36:17):
I've hit eight out of nine NBA playoffs. My bet,
I got a phone call right there. I've hit in
the WNBA playoffs and I have a five percent up
and available for tonight, so if you'd like to be involved,
you guys know where to find it. You can see
both Rob you know, and my profile page at the
bottom of the screen. And my best bet for the show,
(36:40):
I'm gonna give you football one that I played. The
numbers not there anymore, but I took the lines minus
eight and a half. I do think it's a double
digit win. I gave you a lot of reasons why
the offensive rhythm should continue, and that's where my money
will be this weekend. So appreciate everybody in the chat.
A lot of great people. Brian eight says, great jobs
(37:02):
can Rob appreciate it. Let's win this weekend, Mark A, Steve,
appreciate all you good guys out there, so if you know,
always tell you too. I appreciate you taking the time
to come break these games down with me. Helps my process.
I'm sure you help everybody else out there as well. Chat.
Most of you guys, except for one Apple, we appreciate
(37:23):
you as well. A lot of good people, great efforts.
We all just trying to help each other win. So
that's the luck on all your action this weekend. We'll
be back again on Monday, and we will catch you
all then
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