$18 Trillion in Tariffs? Let’s Do the Math

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Donald Trump says tariffs generated $18 trillion in just 10 months—and some Republicans are repeating it like it’s gospel. But let’s slow down and apply a little basic math. $18 trillion is nearly two-thirds of U.S. GDP. If that kind of money actually flowed into the country, manufacturing, construction, and investment would be exploding. They’re not—they’re moving in the opposite direction.
In this episode, Chris breaks down what tariff revenue really looks like (hint: it’s under $300 billion), why there are no written $18 trillion investment “commitments,” and how exaggeration turns into outright misinformation once politicians and pundits start echoing it. Supporting pro-growth policy doesn’t require fantasy numbers—and repeating them only insults the public’s intelligence.
Facts matter. Trillions matter. And if we want credibility on economic policy, we have to stop pretending a big fish story is an actual balance sheet.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact it we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst, and trader Chris Markowski.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
Eighteen trillion dollars in tariff revenue. Listen. I understand Donald Trump,
and he loves to exaggerate. I caught a fish this big,
you know. Donald Trump definitely caught a fish that's much
much bigger, much much tastier, much stronger, and he reeled

(00:40):
it in in record. I understand how he operates. I
think we all do. Hopefully hopefully you figured that out
by now. But Trump announced this weekend that he generated
more than eighteen trillion dollars through tariffs and ten months.

(01:04):
And the funny thing is is you've got Republicans putting
out tweets echoing what he said. This Representative Wesley Hunt
from Texas, I think he wants to run. I think
he's also running for Senate. I think he wants run
against Crockett puts this out there. This is fantastic news.

(01:26):
The future continues to look very bright for America. Come on, man,
Tariff revenue Okay, it's less. It's less than three hundred billion.
Some people are putting on I don't know what it's is,
but it's not eighteen trillion dollars. Okay. Again, this is
part of the problem. People don't even understand what a
trillion is anymore. Eighteen trillion would be two thirds of

(01:51):
our nation's GDP. Two thirds. Now, if we had an
in flux of eighteen trillion dollars into this country, one
would think that manufacturing and construction would be going through
the roof. The opposite is the case. They're going backwards.

(02:14):
They're going backwards. Then you know, you get the people
after the fact. Oh well, you know, No, these were
commitments made by various different countries and this is what
they're going to spend. There is no such commitment. Okay,
there is zip, zero zilch in writing. Okay, let's just

(02:37):
just make it perfectly clear. I've said this from the
get go. Oh spending this amount, what's stop it? Okay, stop,
there's nothing in writing. Companies will invest when they feel
that it's a you know, it's great for this and
you're getting that anyway, we are a great country to

(02:57):
invest in. But eight teen trillion dollars. Come on, man,
that's just not the case. And the people out there
that are echoing this thing, you know, you could say, oh,
these are possible. You're making the country good, you're making

(03:18):
it more attractive, or going to lower regulations. Tell what
you're doing. You know. Again, I know some people buy
into this stuff, but for many of us, it insults
our intelligence. All right, just stop. There's no eighteen trillion
dollars that have flowed to this country. Okay, get it

(03:39):
out of your head. Everybody, watch dog on Wall Street
dot com,