Dead Canary in the Coal Mine: Private Equity’s HVAC Meltdown

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Carrier’s CEO just sounded the alarm: HVAC sales plunged 30% in July and are set to drop over 40% year-over-year in Q3. Markowski calls it another “dead canary,” warning that private equity is sitting on overinflated investments—from air conditioners to vet clinics—desperately waiting for the next sucker to buy in. With phony valuations, hidden risks, and fees still flowing to insiders, this could be worse than the hedge fund craze. Don’t get duped by shiny “alternative” investments pushed into 401(k)s—know the difference between smart money and sucker bets.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact it we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst, and trader Chris Markowski.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
Don't doubt me. We got ourselves another dead canary. Yeah.
The CEO of Carrier Air Conditioning, David Gitlin. Yeah, he
was at a conference. North American residential HVAC market weakened
dramatically as summer progressed. Thirty drop in July sales volumes. Wow,

(00:44):
he said third quarter residential volumes would fall more than
forty percent year over year. Now, what coal mine? What
canary is dead? Yeah? Private equity again, don't doubt me.
Something wicked this way comes in that market, unless, of course,

(01:06):
they can find enough suckers. And again, something wicked will
just wait come back. They're just going to pass off
their ridiculous investments in HVAC companies, veterinary clinics, and a
myriad of other things where they paid way more than
they should have, again, waiting for a sucker, waiting for

(01:29):
a sucker to buy it at an even higher level. Meanwhile,
they'll continue to collect their fees because they're the ones
that puts the valuations on these things. Their accountants do it,
and suckers buy into this stuff. Listen, they're not all
horrible out there. Again, that's our job to discern the

(01:51):
good ones from bad. But let me just explain to you, Okay,
just like the hedge fund market, just like we went
after them, you know, decade and a half ago, same
thing exactly, this is actually worse. This is actually worse
because many of the things that they're holding on to,
Like I said, it's private, private, alternative. It's great selling

(02:16):
point for these guys because they get people thinking that
they're getting in some you know, shiny toy that only
rich people can have. And again that's the guys of
allowing this to go into four one k plans. Again,
we got to find some suckers. I'm just gonna make
a suggestion. Don't be one. Don't be one. You have
any questions, contact us Watchdog on Wall Street dot com.