Jobs Mirage Exposed: Record Downward Revision Shakes Confidence

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics just issued the largest jobs revision in history — over 900,000 fewer jobs than originally reported. While the market shrugs it off as “priced in,” the reality paints a weaker labor market than Washington wants to admit. With Americans reporting record-low confidence in finding new work and faith in BLS data fading, this revision underscores what many already suspected: the economy’s “gangbuster” job growth was a fugazi all along.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact it we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst, and trader Chris Markowski.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
Nine hundred thousand plus. To the downside, Holy snikes, what
a jobs revision downward jobs are the largest ever. So
I got a phone call from my.

Speaker 3 (00:31):
Son and he's asking me, my dad, I don't understand,
how is the market not tanking on this news? And
I smiled. My son is a recent college graduate working
at a big financial company. Can't come working for dad
and for a while he's got to go to his
own thing. But anyway, neither here nor there, And explained

(00:55):
to him, everyone knew this is something again, and that
kind of befuddles many many investors out there. This was
already priced in to the market. Anyone with a couple
of brain cells to rub together that actually really follows

(01:16):
what's going on in the economy should know that the
numbers that we've been getting have been one big fat fugaisy.
We've been telling you that, Oh, I know, they'll parade
the labor secretary out there. They have their pundits, they
have their speakers telling you how wonderful everything is with

(01:36):
the jobs number, and the economy is going like gangbusters.
Who has been telling you the truth?

Speaker 1 (01:44):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:44):
And the reality, the reality of the situation is, once
it's priced in, it's priced in. Everyone knew the number
was going to be bad. They know it was going
to be this bad. No, but so what now? The
other count on is the Fed lowering rates and easy money.

(02:05):
Here's the story. The labor market created far fewer jobs
and previously thought annual revisions to nonfarm payrolls for the
year prior to March twenty twenty five showed a drop
of nine hundred and eleven thousand from the initial estimates,
according to a preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Now, again,

(02:26):
this is going to play into Donald Trump's point, and
he's not wrong, not wrong, that the way that we
collect data is antiquated, to say the least, and we
need to do a much much better job of it.
This is why, again, I don't I don't play the

(02:47):
short term data I can collect. I get better information
from my client base than any Bureau of Labor Statistics
is going to give me from Washington, d C. And
simple Again, you've been following me, you'll know that my
clients know that, yes, some changes need to be made.

(03:10):
There have been some issues, without a doubt, post COVID,
with the birth death model, all of these algorithms that
quite frankly, I don't understand. They don't make much sense
to me. And how they go about calculating all of
these things. That's why I really don't give it much credence.

(03:32):
Neither should you. We do know, we do know that
the labor market is weak. That this is more telling.
Americans hit record low confidence in finding new jobs since
tracking data began in twenty thirteen. The Federal Reserve Bank
of New York on Monday release new data that showed

(03:52):
American households are increasingly pessimistic about finding a new job
if they lose their current job. It is the lowest
level since York Fed began collecting data for the series
in June of twenty thirty teen. Again, you want to
circle back a little bit to this program during COVID
and the things that were taking place during the COVID years,

(04:14):
and the type of hiring that was taking place and
the type of salaries that were being tossed around, and
I said right here, I said, enjoy it while lass
enjoint while Lass because it's not going too This is
not reality based at all, and there's going to be
a snap back. And it's been happening slowly but surely,

(04:36):
but most certainly it's going to continue to accelerate. Watchdog
on Wall Street dot com