April 7, 2025 • 11 mins
Chris compares Trump’s tariff chaos to a riptide—don’t fight the market plunge! From a 7% S&P rally to a 2,300-point drop in minutes, it’s wild, but logic will win out. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact it we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst, and trader Chris Markowski.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
What do you do when your portfolio is caught in
a riptide? When I was a kid, our family we
so load up, load up the van. My dad had
a platformed in the back of our van, so we
could put luggage underneath and some on the roofs, and
we would you have will sleep on the top and
our entire family, sometimes the eight of us because my
(00:37):
grandmother and would come too. We'd make the trick from
alvent in New York down to Fort Sometimes I drive
straight through, but other times kind of neat and stop
along the way. And we were always spans, always spans,
my brothers and I stopping in Myrtle Beach, some of
the beaches along the East Coast because they gig waves
(01:00):
and we love going out there and riding the waves.
That was awesome because my grandfather lived on the Gulf
Coast afore, not really waves as less as a hurricane.
But anyway, neither here nor there, I remember being out
there one time when I was younger and getting a
spieling like I can't get back in and getting sucked
(01:20):
out by the ocean. And for way reason it wasn't
that strong because I was younger, because it was really bad.
At might have died getting caught in the rit tide.
And it happens all the time. People buy of it.
Every single year swung current comes back out, pulls the
(01:41):
water out towards the ocean. What happens is people try
to fight the rit tide, try to swim against the
rit tide, They get tired and they drown. Now what
you have to do is avoid the rip ties. Well,
how the hell you avoid the riptie. You don't try
to swim against it, You kind of swim out of it.
(02:04):
And I guess that's the best way of trying to
deal with the situation at hand. I've done. I've been
doing this for a long time. We've dealt with helpless
calamities and panics in the market. What makes this one
a little bit different than the others is well, the
(02:27):
other ones were predictable in many respects. We called a
lot of these things and we could see a way out.
We could see a way none that I can't see
a way out here. But never ever in you know,
our history, Vivor, seeing this type of situation where you've
(02:51):
got a market that for all intensive purposes was was
taken down intentionally, you put forward proposal where it's going
to be damaging to the economy. I would never ever
have thought that a president would ever do something like this.
With that being said, again, there's a difference between men women. Okay,
(03:15):
I talk about that here on the program. You know,
women doing my wife okay, you know, oftentimes you know
something will be wrong with her, and you know, so
she's not upset about something, and she doesn't want me
to solve the problems. She kind of wants me to
commiserate with her, kind of feel her pain. Type of
(03:37):
a situation. Men like to be able to figure things out.
They like to be able to solve problems. I'd like
to be able to give you something definite, a fix,
you know, or when our kids, when our kids get hurt,
whatever it may be, you automatically wish that pain upon yourself.
(03:57):
You want to be able to solve the problem. That's
what we do. So I spent you know, most of
my weekend, pretty angry, pretty and I never go to
the gym on Sunday, it's my day off. I went
to the gym on Sunday because I had I had
to take out aggression, because I was that upset and
that frustrated about what's taking place, you know, trying to
(04:19):
figure out, trying to get my arms around how to
go about fixing this. Nothing. There's nothing, absolutely nothing that
we can do. This morning. This morning, we watched the markets,
you know, futures tank overnight, open up down. Some rumor
(04:42):
comes out, some rumor comes out that the Trump is
considering a ninety day clause. It's terrace. I've never ever seen,
never seen the S and P five hundred rally seven
percent in fifteen minutes down. We're twenty three hundred points
in this s saying period of time. This is not
(05:04):
what's not This is not investing. This is this is
more or less a video game, and a dangerous one
at that. Much like a riptide, you cannot fight it.
Give you a bit of a movie sub reference what
I was say, kid nineteen eighties film movie War Games,
(05:27):
where AI computer takes over a government gaining computer and
starts playing global thermonuclear war, and I see it gets
control of the you know, the weapons, and they're going
to start a war with Russia because of the computers.
And eventually the computer, the AI program figures out the
(05:48):
only way to win is not to play. And that's
the way it is now. It's it's basically you against
the machines right now when it comes to try trade,
So don't do that. You're not gonna win that game.
We've talked about that in the past, and perfectly it's
(06:08):
a matter of trying to figure out what this administration
is going to do next. We'll get that into another
podcast and another piece. What we're advising, what we're advising
people to do right now. Again, we're raising cash. And
(06:32):
the sense is that we're telling our clients, Hey, listen, Okay,
I don't know if this is the because I don't.
I don't. I am as uncertain as uncertain can be.
But if your time frame is, like I Saro Tech
fifteen twenty years down the road, yeah you're going to
(06:53):
be fine. You're going to be fine. And we'll get
into that bit as well. However, Okay, I've talked about this,
written pieces about this, The importance of conducting a portfolio
fire I call it a portfolio fire drill. What's a
portfolio fire drill? What if something bad happens? Okay, what
(07:15):
if the bad happens, if you need to have actually
fire drill? I remember I go back in school, remember I again,
I remember it because it was bloody cold and upstate
York and it conduct stupid fire drills in the middle
of the winter. You go out cold. Sometimes you'd be
happy about the fire drill because you'd be in the
middle of the test or something like that. You might
get out of it. But anyway, neither here nor there. Okay,
get conduct a portfolio fibrill, and you better you know
(07:40):
you need to make sure you need to be prepared, Okay,
that you're able to deal with another twenty percent to
the downside, because that's in the cards. I'm not gonna
lie to you. That's in the cards. It's doesn't make
any sense, it's nonsense. Well, but it is. It's in
(08:03):
the carts. So that that's something that again you need
to take into consideration. Readvising people to sell high quality companies.
He talked about reasons to sell me. If you're taking
a look at a company and it's management's gone bad.
The business is bad, but it's just a lot of
(08:27):
things going wrong for that company, deteriorating business, poor capital allocation,
what it's doing, making poor decisions, you know, a myriad
of different things. The other one of the things for
also selling positions is you need cash for other commitments
(08:49):
in life. And again that's something something to take into
consideration at this point in time. Get it something more
reminding people you want to take a look overall. As
bad as the situation is, I'm a super coding this
by any a stretch of the imagination. It will work
(09:17):
its way out, always does, it always does. Eventually, eventually
logic will prevail when it comes to this. Very frankly,
it's just palpaal. That's gonna take another one. Some reference
a movie I some reference from time to time from
(09:38):
one of them. You know, well, I some reference this guy, uh,
Jeff Goldblum play Ian Malcolm in Jurassic Park. And there
was a c in Jurassic Park. They're they're hiding, they're
eyeing in the jungle somewhere other hiding in Jurassic Park,
and all of a sudden they see baby dinosaurs. And
how's that possible. How's that possible? I thought the doctor
(10:00):
Hammon said they engineered all the dinosaurs to be female.
And doctor Malcolm says, one thing about nature. Nature will
always find a way. Business will always find a way,
always asks, it will find a way through, and this
(10:22):
will find a way through. I wish, I wish I
had more information, but again everything is on a hair
trigger right now, it's on a hair trigger. A lot
of damage is been done that could change in a tweet. Unfortunately,
(10:49):
that's not how I like markets to behave. It makes
it takes our lives very, very difficult here at Markowski Investments.
It really does makes our lives very difficult. This is
not something that Miami strets. The imagination do we have
(11:11):
on our proverbial Bengal card. But like every other situation
we dealt with, we're gonna deal with it. We're gonna
deal with it the best bag costable. We can again
feel free, feel free reach out to us. Contact us
at any point of time, any hour of the day.
(11:31):
We won't answer the phone. We will be here for
you like we always have. God bless watch Dog on
Wall Street dot Com
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact it we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst, and trader Chris Markowski.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
What do you do when your portfolio is caught in
a riptide? When I was a kid, our family we
so load up, load up the van. My dad had
a platformed in the back of our van, so we
could put luggage underneath and some on the roofs, and
we would you have will sleep on the top and
our entire family, sometimes the eight of us because my
(00:37):
grandmother and would come too. We'd make the trick from
alvent in New York down to Fort Sometimes I drive
straight through, but other times kind of neat and stop
along the way. And we were always spans, always spans,
my brothers and I stopping in Myrtle Beach, some of
the beaches along the East Coast because they gig waves
(01:00):
and we love going out there and riding the waves.
That was awesome because my grandfather lived on the Gulf
Coast afore, not really waves as less as a hurricane.
But anyway, neither here nor there, I remember being out
there one time when I was younger and getting a
spieling like I can't get back in and getting sucked
(01:20):
out by the ocean. And for way reason it wasn't
that strong because I was younger, because it was really bad.
At might have died getting caught in the rit tide.
And it happens all the time. People buy of it.
Every single year swung current comes back out, pulls the
(01:41):
water out towards the ocean. What happens is people try
to fight the rit tide, try to swim against the
rit tide, They get tired and they drown. Now what
you have to do is avoid the rip ties. Well,
how the hell you avoid the riptie. You don't try
to swim against it, You kind of swim out of it.
(02:04):
And I guess that's the best way of trying to
deal with the situation at hand. I've done. I've been
doing this for a long time. We've dealt with helpless
calamities and panics in the market. What makes this one
a little bit different than the others is well, the
(02:27):
other ones were predictable in many respects. We called a
lot of these things and we could see a way out.
We could see a way none that I can't see
a way out here. But never ever in you know,
our history, Vivor, seeing this type of situation where you've
(02:51):
got a market that for all intensive purposes was was
taken down intentionally, you put forward proposal where it's going
to be damaging to the economy. I would never ever
have thought that a president would ever do something like this.
With that being said, again, there's a difference between men women. Okay,
(03:15):
I talk about that here on the program. You know,
women doing my wife okay, you know, oftentimes you know
something will be wrong with her, and you know, so
she's not upset about something, and she doesn't want me
to solve the problems. She kind of wants me to
commiserate with her, kind of feel her pain. Type of
(03:37):
a situation. Men like to be able to figure things out.
They like to be able to solve problems. I'd like
to be able to give you something definite, a fix,
you know, or when our kids, when our kids get hurt,
whatever it may be, you automatically wish that pain upon yourself.
(03:57):
You want to be able to solve the problem. That's
what we do. So I spent you know, most of
my weekend, pretty angry, pretty and I never go to
the gym on Sunday, it's my day off. I went
to the gym on Sunday because I had I had
to take out aggression, because I was that upset and
that frustrated about what's taking place, you know, trying to
(04:19):
figure out, trying to get my arms around how to
go about fixing this. Nothing. There's nothing, absolutely nothing that
we can do. This morning. This morning, we watched the markets,
you know, futures tank overnight, open up down. Some rumor
(04:42):
comes out, some rumor comes out that the Trump is
considering a ninety day clause. It's terrace. I've never ever seen,
never seen the S and P five hundred rally seven
percent in fifteen minutes down. We're twenty three hundred points
in this s saying period of time. This is not
(05:04):
what's not This is not investing. This is this is
more or less a video game, and a dangerous one
at that. Much like a riptide, you cannot fight it.
Give you a bit of a movie sub reference what
I was say, kid nineteen eighties film movie War Games,
(05:27):
where AI computer takes over a government gaining computer and
starts playing global thermonuclear war, and I see it gets
control of the you know, the weapons, and they're going
to start a war with Russia because of the computers.
And eventually the computer, the AI program figures out the
(05:48):
only way to win is not to play. And that's
the way it is now. It's it's basically you against
the machines right now when it comes to try trade,
So don't do that. You're not gonna win that game.
We've talked about that in the past, and perfectly it's
(06:08):
a matter of trying to figure out what this administration
is going to do next. We'll get that into another
podcast and another piece. What we're advising, what we're advising
people to do right now. Again, we're raising cash. And
(06:32):
the sense is that we're telling our clients, Hey, listen, Okay,
I don't know if this is the because I don't.
I don't. I am as uncertain as uncertain can be.
But if your time frame is, like I Saro Tech
fifteen twenty years down the road, yeah you're going to
(06:53):
be fine. You're going to be fine. And we'll get
into that bit as well. However, Okay, I've talked about this,
written pieces about this, The importance of conducting a portfolio
fire I call it a portfolio fire drill. What's a
portfolio fire drill? What if something bad happens? Okay, what
(07:15):
if the bad happens, if you need to have actually
fire drill? I remember I go back in school, remember I again,
I remember it because it was bloody cold and upstate
York and it conduct stupid fire drills in the middle
of the winter. You go out cold. Sometimes you'd be
happy about the fire drill because you'd be in the
middle of the test or something like that. You might
get out of it. But anyway, neither here nor there. Okay,
get conduct a portfolio fibrill, and you better you know
(07:40):
you need to make sure you need to be prepared, Okay,
that you're able to deal with another twenty percent to
the downside, because that's in the cards. I'm not gonna
lie to you. That's in the cards. It's doesn't make
any sense, it's nonsense. Well, but it is. It's in
(08:03):
the carts. So that that's something that again you need
to take into consideration. Readvising people to sell high quality companies.
He talked about reasons to sell me. If you're taking
a look at a company and it's management's gone bad.
The business is bad, but it's just a lot of
(08:27):
things going wrong for that company, deteriorating business, poor capital allocation,
what it's doing, making poor decisions, you know, a myriad
of different things. The other one of the things for
also selling positions is you need cash for other commitments
(08:49):
in life. And again that's something something to take into
consideration at this point in time. Get it something more
reminding people you want to take a look overall. As
bad as the situation is, I'm a super coding this
by any a stretch of the imagination. It will work
(09:17):
its way out, always does, it always does. Eventually, eventually
logic will prevail when it comes to this. Very frankly,
it's just palpaal. That's gonna take another one. Some reference
a movie I some reference from time to time from
(09:38):
one of them. You know, well, I some reference this guy, uh,
Jeff Goldblum play Ian Malcolm in Jurassic Park. And there
was a c in Jurassic Park. They're they're hiding, they're
eyeing in the jungle somewhere other hiding in Jurassic Park,
and all of a sudden they see baby dinosaurs. And
how's that possible. How's that possible? I thought the doctor
(10:00):
Hammon said they engineered all the dinosaurs to be female.
And doctor Malcolm says, one thing about nature. Nature will
always find a way. Business will always find a way,
always asks, it will find a way through, and this
(10:22):
will find a way through. I wish, I wish I
had more information, but again everything is on a hair
trigger right now, it's on a hair trigger. A lot
of damage is been done that could change in a tweet. Unfortunately,
(10:49):
that's not how I like markets to behave. It makes
it takes our lives very, very difficult here at Markowski Investments.
It really does makes our lives very difficult. This is
not something that Miami strets. The imagination do we have
(11:11):
on our proverbial Bengal card. But like every other situation
we dealt with, we're gonna deal with it. We're gonna
deal with it the best bag costable. We can again
feel free, feel free reach out to us. Contact us
at any point of time, any hour of the day.
(11:31):
We won't answer the phone. We will be here for
you like we always have. God bless watch Dog on
Wall Street dot Com
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