Recession on the Way

Chris dives into the latest economic indicators, arguing that the U.S. may already be in a recessionary stagflation. With inflation running hot, producer prices climbing, and bankruptcies at their highest in 14 years, Markowski highlights how government spending and hiring are artificially propping up the economy. He also discusses the potential for economic recalibration under a new administration, emphasizing the need for honest data and restored "animal spirits" to drive growth. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact that we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst, and trader Chris Markowski.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
Is there a recession on the way?

Speaker 3 (00:20):
Well, again, I take a look at the take a
look at the numbers, the inflation numbers over the past week,
and they were very hot. Basically going what we've been
trying to explain in our belief system. Our theme here
is that we are already in a recession, a stagflation

(00:41):
type of an economy that we're in, and the economy,
in our opinion, is being propped up based upon government
spending and the jobs numbers being propped up by government hiring.
It's not based in any sort of reality. Now, it
was funny, is that you watched I watched some of

(01:03):
the people last week, some of the pundits, the Steve
Leisman's of the world on CNBC have almost a collective
freak out over some of the inflation numbers.

Speaker 2 (01:12):
He's like, this can't be right, How can this be right?

Speaker 3 (01:15):
Because it's some of the some of the changes that
they made blew them away and how expensive certain things are.

Speaker 2 (01:24):
Producer prices.

Speaker 3 (01:25):
Here, here's another one too, because again you get the
leftists out there, the Elizabeth Warrens, those fools that don't
know what they're talking about. Well, maybe they do know
what they're talking about. They just like to lie.

Speaker 2 (01:35):
That's corporate greed, that's why prices are high.

Speaker 3 (01:37):
Well, if it's corporate greed, well did you take at
producer prices what they're playing at the wholesale level input
costs for businesses, Yeah, it's gone up. And when their
input costs go up, guess they have to pass that
on down to you.

Speaker 2 (01:53):
But here is here's some telling numbers. Right now.

Speaker 3 (02:00):
Large bankruptcies in the United States are up to six
hundred and thirty four year to date. That's the highest
in fourteen years. Okay, that's this year, that's right now.
There have been thirty two more bankruptcies year to date
than during the twenty twenty pandemic lockdowns. In November, sixty

(02:25):
nine large firms filed for bankruptcy. That's the second highest
monthly total since July of twenty twenty. Consumer Discretionary see
the highest number of filings at ninety nine it's followed
by seventy nine in industrial, sixty two in healthcare. Again,
we are at recession levels when it comes to bankruptcy,

(02:49):
and the whole duck thing looks like a duck, quacks
like a duck. It's probably a duck. Yeah, more than likely.
What's going to happen moving forward? Well, see, I think
we're going to have more truthful and honest numbers once
Donald Trump becomes president, because they're going to try to

(03:09):
use it against him.

Speaker 2 (03:11):
That's what the media will do. They're good at that.

Speaker 3 (03:15):
They're good at that, and I think that Trump and
the Trump team should be able to kind of head
that off to some degree. I am hoping that they're
going to be able to do that and you know,
basically claim the narrative moving forward. Again, a lot of
this stuff is rear view. Okay, this is stuff that's

(03:37):
that's already happened. But again, we get animal spirits back
into the equation, which which I'm seeing where people are
going to be more willing to go out there build
and create and spend money and spend capital. That'll be great,
we can get the economy going again. But I'm just
telling you right now, be prepared, Be prepared for the UH.

(03:59):
It's going to be a law long list of actual,
truthful and bad numbers as far as the economy is
concerned moving forward. Watchdog on Wall Street dot com