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October 3, 2025 25 mins
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Here’s the blunt truth: the shutdown standoff is theater—and the real deal being cut in the back room is whether Trump and Republicans extend juiced Obamacare subsidies to dodge political heat before the midterms. In this episode:
  • Why the “who wins the shutdown?” narrative is a distraction from a massive spending cave
  • How enhanced ACA subsidies became permanent by “temporary” design—and doubled enrollment since 2021
  • The GOP’s fear play: extending subsidies to avoid blame for higher premiums in key red districts
  • Why subsidies always raise prices—and how healthcare became a middleman bonanza
  • The path not taken: real market reforms (HSAs, catastrophic plans, cross-state competition) Republicans abandoned
If the White House trades another year of Obamacare steroids for a PR win, both parties will claim victory—while you pay the bill and the system keeps breaking.
Mark as Played
Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact that we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst, and trader Chris Markowski.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
Will Trump Cave, I'm even fair warning right here. This
one of those podcasts where you know, I may lose it.
I may have one of those Howard Beale type of moments.

Speaker 3 (00:28):
Will Trump Cave? Will the Republican's cave to Democrats?

Speaker 2 (00:33):
What you're watching right now? This theater that's taking place
all in front of us, with Mariachi bands and you know,
memes and all sorts of stuff, and Trump out there
all you know, playing chess, you know, all the stuff
that's going on out there. I'm not buying any of it,

(00:54):
quite frankly. The Republican Party is for the most part,
it's pretty much non existent, and it's very very weak,
despite what they like to show with their memes and
all of this other nonsense that's that's going on.

Speaker 3 (01:15):
Again.

Speaker 2 (01:15):
We're being told, being told that old boy, did you know,
Trump has got his uh, Trump's got his uh, He's
got Russ vought out there.

Speaker 3 (01:23):
Russ is is tweeting a lot.

Speaker 2 (01:25):
He's taken to twitter a lot about all the things
that they're planning on doing, and I use air quotes
right there, planning on doing. Okay, they're gonna shut down this,
they're gonna fire this one, they're gonna fire that one.
They're going to cut back on all sorts of green
initiatives in blue states. They gave a delay to eighteen

(01:46):
billion dollars in New York City. I'm gonna say straight up,
it's all bullshit, mark mark my words.

Speaker 3 (01:58):
It's all.

Speaker 2 (02:02):
This is all for show right now, and Trump will
allow all that that spending, all of them. They're not
gonna be jobs cut. They're not gonna do any of that.

Speaker 3 (02:14):
That's not gonna happen.

Speaker 2 (02:17):
It's not. But then you know, they'll they'll, you know,
they'll come to some agreement and they'll reopen the government.
And you know, the folks on the five and the
other influencers out there, it's just, oh, look at Trump.
He's playing five D chess. He's the ultimate negotiator. Yeah,
he threatened the Democrats all that stuff, and he got
him to reopen the government. Okay, and again, this is

(02:41):
just this is just quite frankly, just people with with
the religious belief in these people in Washington, d C.
Let me tell you how we are about to get
royally screwed. Okay, I'll tell you how about to get
royally screwed. President Trump thinks okay, they're putting out thinks

(03:06):
winning the messaging right now, Who's going to win the shutdown?
That's all they want to talk about, is big pillow fight.
Who's going to win the shutdown? Well, the people inside
Donald Trump's circle right now.

Speaker 3 (03:20):
They're worried.

Speaker 2 (03:22):
They're worried about the midterms. They're worried that Republicans are
going to take the blame for allowing the healthcare subsidies. Again,
these were healthcare subsidies that were put into place in
the Inflation Reduction Act. Okay, that expired. These were enhanced

(03:47):
Obamacare subsidies. Now, again, the Republican Party, which is supposed
to be the party some fiscally saying party out there,
they're worried now that by making away taking away all
the extra free money that you're handing out.

Speaker 3 (04:05):
Raising the cost because that's all.

Speaker 4 (04:06):
We hear everyone, Oh my god, oh it's gonna raise
the costs for millions of Americans. Oh no, they're not
gonna get more government money. It's gonna be terrible for
the midterm elections.

Speaker 3 (04:20):
Oh give me a freaking break.

Speaker 2 (04:26):
So right now, inside the White House and it makes
me sit to my stomach, AIDS are discussing proposals to
extend the enhanced subsidies for the Affordable Care Act Obamacare. Yeah,
Trump's not sure what he is going to do, not

(04:49):
sure what he's going to do.

Speaker 3 (04:52):
I'm betting.

Speaker 2 (04:54):
He's gonna cave. He's gonna cave. Or maybe if he caves,
maybe he'll get a few layoffs.

Speaker 3 (05:01):
Maybe he'll get rid of some sort of green initiatives here.

Speaker 2 (05:05):
And there, and he will come out and declare victory.
You're talking talking over a half a billion dollars. A
half a billion dollars again, Trump, Trump should be following,

(05:31):
going moving forward, actually trying to fix healthcare here in
the United States. That's what he should be doing. We
should be looking to repeal Obamacare and replace Obamacare, because
that's the problem the Republicans. They're out there trying to

(05:53):
convince Americans about money going to illegals health for healthcare subsidies. Now,
how does this happen? It happens through emergency room services.

Speaker 3 (06:05):
A lot of my old.

Speaker 2 (06:07):
Lacrosse players that I coached way way back when they're
all doctors, surgeons, very different things. They tell me the stories,
some of the stories, you know, entire families coming into
the emergency room at you know, ten eleven o'clock at
night and we provide healthcare for them. That's just how
it was. And this is going back prior to Obamacare.

(06:30):
They were talking about that. But anyway, the issue right
now is that ending the subsidies.

Speaker 3 (06:37):
And I'm going to get into subsidies in a bit.

Speaker 2 (06:39):
Ending the subsidies is going to result in higher premiums
for more than twenty million people. Of the seventy five
congressional districts where at least ten percent of the population
is enrolled in Obamacare, sixty two are in oh No,
red leaning Florida, Georgia, and Texas. More than half of

(07:00):
the sixty two districts in those states are represented by Republicans.
Trump's polster Tony Fabrizio issued a memo outlining the risks
for Republicans for not acting by broad bipartisan margins.

Speaker 3 (07:17):
Voters want to see the.

Speaker 2 (07:18):
Tax credits extended rather than expire, but the end of
the year, whether in the context of premiums doubling or
five million families losing their health insurance, more free shit,
Why don't we throw free beer on top of it too?

Speaker 3 (07:37):
Now? JD.

Speaker 2 (07:40):
Vance came out said he'd be willing to negotiate on
healthcare if Democrats voted to reopen the government. Yes, Moderates
are saying, well, we can extend the extension for another
year so we can get past the midterms.

Speaker 3 (08:03):
What's going to happen is going to get ugly.

Speaker 2 (08:05):
It's going to get kind of funky, is that if
you've got the supposed and again I don't know if
they're going to stick to it. The House Freedom Caucus
who so they're saying they will not sign off on
any extended substies. They will not do it, which would
force Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House, to work with

(08:25):
Democrats to push this through. Let me put this in
the perspective. The number of people enrolled in Obamacare since
twenty twenty one is doubled. It's double. Let me let

(08:48):
me get into subsidies before I get into Kimberly Strassele's piece,
because she's great. Essentially one of the great writers for
The Wall Street Journal. Subsidies. Subsidy is one of the
dumbest things ever. Every single time I see a politician,
I see some idiot on TV talking about subsidies. We

(09:12):
need to increase subsidies. We need to help this, We
need to help that. I've done this before on the program. Okay,
and I'm going to be a little bit mean here. Okay, Okay,
some of you people have got to wake the blank up.
Anything that the government subsidizes, anything is going to make

(09:34):
the price go up. Period the end. We subsidize to
higher education, how did that work out? We subsidize housing,
how did that work out.

Speaker 3 (09:48):
We're in the.

Speaker 2 (09:49):
Job business of subsidizing healthcare. How has that worked out?
Any time you subsidize something, the price is going to
go up. I am going to give you an example
I've given in the past. Let's say pretend that Democrats
get pissed off that coffee has gotten too expensive, so

(10:12):
they want to start subsidizing people's purchase of coffee. All
the coffee manufacturers are going to do are just raise
their price. Healthcare here in the United States, it's not
a free market here. The funny thing is we're talking about.

Speaker 4 (10:29):
Oh my god, all these people are going to lose
their health insurance. Now the premium is gonna go all
this stuff.

Speaker 3 (10:34):
Let me ask you a question. What would happen?

Speaker 2 (10:37):
Okay, I want you we're gon we're gonna play pretend.
I want you to use your brain here. What if
we woke up tomorrow and there weren't in any insurance companies?
There weren't any insurance companies. What would happen? Would hospitals
shut down? Would doctors not go to work the next day? No?

Speaker 3 (10:57):
What would happen?

Speaker 2 (10:58):
You would actually have a free market and prices would
find an equilibrium, if you will, That's all it would happen.
How much money is wasted going to insurance companies and
middleman and processing all of this crept.

Speaker 3 (11:19):
I just got a bill. I just got a bill
from a hospital on Long Island.

Speaker 2 (11:25):
My son a few years ago hurt his foot very bad,
was in the hospital for a couple of days.

Speaker 3 (11:31):
I've got health insurance.

Speaker 2 (11:34):
This was over over three three and a half years ago,
and I just got a bill.

Speaker 3 (11:40):
Oh you owe this amount.

Speaker 2 (11:44):
Now I've got to go back and I got to
check whether this is legit or not or what hasn't
been paid for. This is this is our healthcare system
here in the United States. It's a freaking joke. It's
a freaking joke. And this is by bloodied design.

Speaker 3 (12:02):
You see what the Democrats are doing. They're gonna lose
their subsidies. People are gonna lose this, They're gonna lose that.

Speaker 2 (12:07):
This gives them power because they're giving people ship and
Republicans are going along with this. Shame on you, because
you know what, they're all a bunch of fruit kittycats,
the Republican Party. This makes me bloody irate. You are
not willing to put the work in. You're not willing
to go out there and explain to people to teach

(12:29):
how stupid this is. You're not willing to fix the
system by blowing the whole damn thing up. Oh no,
we want that. We're gonna take We're gonna you know,
we're gonna take the easy road. Okay, yeah, I get
the whole Robert Frost the road less traveled. The Republican
Party doesn't take the road less traveled. They take the

(12:49):
easiest path out. They want no discomfort at all. All
they're concerned about is the mid terms. If That's all
you care about is the mid That's your most important
thing is getting reelect.

Speaker 3 (13:00):
Did you suck? You? Do you suck?

Speaker 2 (13:05):
We should have a free market healthcare system here in
the United States. The sooner you put all those healthcare
health insurance companies out of business, the better off we're
going to be.

Speaker 3 (13:17):
This is non sensical. You can't even.

Speaker 2 (13:21):
Buy you can't even buy true legit catastrophic health insurance
because all this Obamacare crap.

Speaker 3 (13:30):
It's a disaster, is what it is. And as a
Republican party.

Speaker 2 (13:34):
Going right damn along with the whole thing, Hey, let's
subsidize away. We're might have to cave on this because
we might piss off our voters. Do the right thing,
how about that? Kimberly Strassel today the Wall Street Journal.
When the smad clears from this first government shutdown, there

(13:55):
will be ownership. Either a chassin Democrat party will own
the embarrassment of a fool hearted diclosure, or this is
what I'm telling you is going to happen, an outfoxed
Republican party will own the fifteen year old, unreformed calamity
known as Obamacare.

Speaker 3 (14:16):
Yeah yeah, oh yeah, that they're.

Speaker 2 (14:19):
Going to make Chuck Schumer wants four and fifty billion,
wants to make permanent the enhanced Obamacare subsidies. These were again,
these were for higher income Americans. Member I told yesterday
four hundred percent above the poverty line. These were quote
unquote temporarily enacted during the COVID pandemic. Yeah, well, first

(14:47):
you had JD. Vance come out and go after Democrats
for breaking the healthcare system in the first place, only
to hold the government hostage until we get everything we want.
Good point, JD. Sounds good, sounds good, But what's really
going on behind the scenes with those elephants?

Speaker 3 (15:07):
Right?

Speaker 2 (15:08):
Could we be accused of being menies if these handout
slaps MN and Obamacare bailout ease our path to re
election next year? And what better excuse for spending that
money than to cite the shutdown as good cause to

(15:28):
hear out Democrats. Less than twenty four hours after Vance
was spot on, someone got to him, got his mind right,
and again, shame on you, JD.

Speaker 3 (15:41):
Shame on you.

Speaker 2 (15:44):
He offered Democrats a shutdown off ramp yep, via a
simple reversal of order.

Speaker 3 (15:51):
First vote to.

Speaker 2 (15:52):
Reopen the government, then we'll give you everything we want.
Republicans did nothing, okay when it came to healthcare here
in the United States. That's how we ended up with
the thing. They didn't want to talk about rising health
care prices, didn't want to really talk about the problem.

(16:14):
There were some good policies that were put into place,
and again I give all credit to the former Center
of the State of Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum, who started the
high deductible health insurance coupled with health savings accounts. One
of the things that we used to do back at
Markowski Investments after that was instituted. This was a financial

(16:38):
financial strategy that I used for my clients. Many of
my clients, I had them that were actually employees at companies,
high paying jobs. I had them negotiate with human resources.
I had them negotiating with human resources to get basically
formed their own s corporation, whatever partners, whatever it.

Speaker 3 (16:59):
May be, get paid, get paid full and everything.

Speaker 2 (17:04):
They would take care of their own quarterly tax costs,
everything along with it, and they would get out of
They would get out of the company insurance and the
company would pay them for what their costs were to
ensure them, giving them a raise and then saving them money. Yeah,
we should do that. It was genius quite frankly, got

(17:25):
to humble myself, but anyway, you know, we were helping
people do that. At that point in time. Obamacare blew
that whole thing up. That that strategy, you know, went
by the wayside because of what we have today. After
Obamacare was passed again another former senator that I love

(17:47):
this guy, Senator Tom Colburn, doctor Colburn, they tried. He
wanted to have a pro market system. I remember yelling,
screaming here on the program. I said, you know, insurance
can't be sold across state lines. There's just the thing
was an absolute disaster. It's not true insurance. We could

(18:10):
kind of make it more like insurance based upon it. No, No,
Obamacare is failing. The reason why prices are going up
is because Obamacare is failing miserably the government mandates and
insurance subsidies.

Speaker 3 (18:26):
You've got.

Speaker 2 (18:29):
Industry consolidation, inflated payments, a passity about those payments, constrained choices,
steady erosion of employer provided coverage, continuing to shovel money
into temporary COVID era bonuses to avoid a cliff. This

(18:49):
is saying this, that's putting a band aid on the problem.
It's just making the problem worse. Why they quit, I
mean after the whole debacle with John McCain, And again

(19:11):
this is another example of Republicans not wanting to put
the hard work in. And to this day, I'm sticking
by this that John McCain was the easiest person to
send out there to vote down the repeal of Obamacare
because we already knew about the personal issues that he
had with Donald Trump. And that's because Donald Trump honest was,

(19:35):
for lack of a better word, you know what when
it came to McCain like him, hate, but you know,
to go after his military credentials and service was just
plain stupid anyway. But I do believe that if McCain
didn't give the thumbs down, it would have been somebody
else because public doesn't have anything, They didn't have anything,

(20:01):
the didn't want to touch it, theydn't want to deal
with it.

Speaker 3 (20:04):
In the same way. In the same way, we can go.

Speaker 2 (20:06):
Back to what was the two thousand and five two
thousand and five when George W.

Speaker 3 (20:12):
Bush actually had a plan. Actually this would have been great.

Speaker 2 (20:20):
He actually had a plan for Social Security and what
he wanted to do and reforming it in private accounts
and you know all this stuff, and it.

Speaker 3 (20:30):
Was too difficult.

Speaker 2 (20:31):
According to Mitch McConnell. No, again, we were spending too
much political capital in Iraq. And again, I'm not a politician,
nor could I ever be. Okay, that's one thing. I
don't compromise my belief system for anybody who won't do it.
This is this is who you're dealing with right now.

(20:54):
So you're dealing with right now. Again, I know this
might upset some people out there, but I think more
than likely, And I hope I'm wrong.

Speaker 3 (21:09):
Okay.

Speaker 2 (21:10):
You know how many times I come on and I
predicted things here on the air twenty five years, radio show,
TV podcasts. You know how many times I predictings. I
hope that I'm wrong. I wish I was wrong more
often with this stuff. But I know who we're dealing
with at this point in time will basically, in my opinion,

(21:35):
they're working behind the scenes. So both the donkeys and
the elephants can save face. Maybe we'll cut a couple
of green things here and there. Trump can put out
some clever memes. He can have his paid influencers put
out what they want to put out. Democrats can do
the same exact thing, and they can both declare victory

(21:57):
and we go further Intoday, we continue to be saddled
with Obamacare and a healthcare system that is failing. And
I mentioned it here on the pro it's so bad,
it's so we might as well well, I honestly, we
might just just trash the entire thing. But I don't think,

(22:18):
you know, I think they want to extended as long
as they possibly can, because so many people are getting.

Speaker 3 (22:22):
Fat and happy.

Speaker 2 (22:23):
Not doctors, not surgeons, not the people that actually deserve
to make the money, but all the middlemen, all the insurance,
all the bullshit on the in between.

Speaker 3 (22:31):
They're making a fortune. For crying out loud. I actually
saw this.

Speaker 2 (22:35):
They were showing me the coding for a Medicare Medicare
appointment for a general practitioner. There, half an hour appointment,
forty eight dollars.

Speaker 3 (22:53):
How in the world, How in the world.

Speaker 2 (22:55):
Does a doctor there's only so many hours in a day. Okay,
they have to sleep. They can't be there twenty four
hours a day. How do they make a living with that? Yeah? Yeah,
I live in a booming city. Okay, the place is booming.

Speaker 3 (23:15):
Here in Tampa, Florida, it is try to find a doctor.

Speaker 2 (23:22):
They're gone, all right, they're done.

Speaker 3 (23:27):
They're done.

Speaker 2 (23:27):
You have to go way out of it. I mean
to find someone, you know, I don't see doctor. I
don't trust you know anymore. I just don't do that.
But good luck. How does how does the doctor take
medicare and keep the lights on? It's this our system,

(23:53):
it's our system. I don't know what's going to happen. Yeah,
maybe the government take the whole thing over. The only thing,
the only thing I ask is that you allow for
private insurance outside and I see more of the concierge
stuff coming into play here, there and everywhere. But we
wrecked it. Okay, And it's not just a bomb. It's

(24:16):
both sides fault. Let's just be honest here, Okay, let's
be ho it's both sides. One quick note about Tom Colburn.
Tom Coburn used to go home every weekend. He didn't
stay in Washington, d C. He was an obi Juan
and he got in trouble with the Senate.

Speaker 3 (24:39):
That's true story. He got in trouble with.

Speaker 2 (24:41):
The Senate because he would go back and he would
practice medicine and the Senate rules and no, that's a conflict.

Speaker 3 (24:49):
You can't do that anyway.

Speaker 2 (24:54):
Anyway Again, I mean the yell, I kind of do
me and Niell and scream Today, Kenny got you understand
my frustration with all of this, And again I hope
I'm wrong. Watchdog on Wall Street dot Com
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