June 16, 2024 • 32 mins
The Rockets expect to operate above the NBA’s salary cap in the upcoming 2024 offseason, but they could potentially have a significant amount of financial flexibility in 2025.
For general manager Rafael Stone, that could present numerous opportunities via trade to leverage that potential space. With that in mind, NBA salary cap guru Yossi Gozlan recently joined our Ben DuBose for an exclusive interview regarding Houston’s financial outlook.
Beyond trade opportunities, the show also explores the outlook for potential contract extensions within the Rockets — including the ideal timing for reaching agreements with Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun over the next year.
For general manager Rafael Stone, that could present numerous opportunities via trade to leverage that potential space. With that in mind, NBA salary cap guru Yossi Gozlan recently joined our Ben DuBose for an exclusive interview regarding Houston’s financial outlook.
Beyond trade opportunities, the show also explores the outlook for potential contract extensions within the Rockets — including the ideal timing for reaching agreements with Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun over the next year.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:02):
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome toThe Logger Line, an exclusive podcast from
the home of the Rockets, SportsTalk seven ninety. The Logger Line.
It's proudly served to you by carBox Clutch City Lagger. It is God
Oh Yeah, Red Nation. GetReady, Ready, Get Ready. The
(00:26):
lagger Line starts now. Welcome aboard. Thanks for tuning in for another new
episode of The Logger Line, asalways served to you courtesy of Clutch City
Lagger of Carback Brewing. I'm BenDubos, your host, editor of USA
(00:47):
Today's Rocket Squire and contributor to SportsTalk seven ninety, the official flagship radio
sation of your Houston Rockets. PalloAwl's my usual co host, couldn't make
a schedule work for this episode,but he will be back next week.
Today, You've got a special shwith yoc Goslin, NBA salary cap expert.
He's previously written about matters really everythingrelated to the salary cap for hoops
Hype and now operates the website capsheetsdot com, which has updated salary figures
(01:11):
and information for teams all across theleague. He also operates his own YouTube
channel at Yocgoslin NBA. That's Yossigoz l a n NBA and his Twitter
slash x handle is at Yo Cgoslin. Anyway, at that YouTube page,
yous has been publishing these team specificoutlook videos for the past month or so,
and his Rockets version came out justa few days ago. For the
(01:34):
benefit of our listeners, I willlink that to the summary of this podcast
belong story short for those who haven'theard it yet, You'll see you're pretty
bullish on the future of the Rocketsfrom a cap perspective, and specifically as
it pertains to Houston's ability to makea major move in the relatively near future.
So if you could just at ahigh level explain why that is and
what you mean by that. So, when looking at Houston situation one,
(01:57):
they've already drafted extremely real well,they've had like two on average of at
least two good players per draft andthat's number one. So they have all
these guys and eventually they're going tohave to make some tough decisions on who
they want to keep, who theymight have to potentially move on from and
maybe consolidate. But then the otherthing is they have the flexibility in the
(02:22):
future they have cap space potentially nextyear, which I think ideally they don't
want to get there, but ifthey but since they have that capture,
they do have some optionality through tradepotentially where they can make a big,
significant upgrade in the near future.Yeah, I think a lot of people
don't appreciate just how much flexibility theyhave because we sort of built off twenty
(02:45):
twenty three as the one year theywould have to spend big. But because
the biggest piece of their spending,Fred van Fleet, was basically on a
two year deal, the last beinga team option, there actually is one
more window in twenty twenty five beforethe majority of your second cond tracks kick
in. For the core six.You will have at least cap holes on
the books for Jalen Green and allPrinching going their second contracts, assuming they're
(03:06):
still here. But even with thosecap holes, you could still have maximum
room in twenty twenty five. Right, Yeah, there's definitely different type with
Jalen Green not so much, andin my scenarios in the videos because he
has such a large capole that's alittle tricky. But anyways, like he's
already been a rumored to be intrade packages for carriages in the past,
(03:27):
and presumably if if Donovan Mitchell wasinterested in going to Houston, then he'd
probably be big with there. SoI'm not really factoring in Jalen Green too
much in this in these big scenarios, but the Shagug part is super interesting
because his cap hool that is verylow. So I'm going to be very
interested to see if they're if theyagreed to an extension or not during the
off season, because this was somethingthat basically what the strategy is, you
(03:52):
don't extend them, you make themhit for a stractfree agency just so you
have a he'd basically have like extratwenty million. They have an extra twenty
twenty million dollars in cap space versusif they extend him. Now, the
Sixers just did this with Tyrese maxinnow they're going to reward him with the
Max. So it hasn't been practicedsince I think like the last big notable
time was Kawhi Leonard in the Spursand he just led them to a championship
(04:15):
and they said, no, we'renot extending you because we want cap shakes
next year, and they got laMarcus Aldridge and then it all worked out.
But I may have left a badtaste in his mouth. Yeah,
but it'll be interesting to see ifthey try to do that with Shangoon,
because if they can take care oftheir well, you know, whatever big
move they want to make now,then you might as well just extend them.
Yeah, I guess that's true.Well, let me think of one
(04:38):
other hypothetical. So with the Bridgestalk of late and from what I've heard,
I actually don't think the Rockets aregoing to go down that road.
But if they did, there's beensome talk of what if they included Dylan
Brooks instead of Jalen Green in theas a salary matching vehicle for Mikhail Bridges.
If you took Dylan steal off,you could conceive it still have max
(05:00):
room with the Jalen cap hold,right, because Dylan's at like twenty two
basically, I yeah, you knowthat should be right just off the top
of my head. Okay, Soyeah, I see your point, in
which you know, Chagoo's sixteen milliondollars cap hold, you can keep that
and still have max room. Nowyou have to subtract something else, and
so Jalen would be the easiest.But theoretically you could use Dylan in that
place as well. Yeah, andI suppose at this point, like obviously,
(05:26):
if you know, we don't knowhow true those negotiations were in the
trade headline, but I'm sure theRockets are pretty fortunate that Brooklyn said no.
Right, and now that it's morenow it might be you know,
if let's say Brooklyn is interested.I mean, we saw the heater Jalen
Green went on in March eight art. Well, you know, now at
this point it's maybe how much drafticwould he could the Nets get back if
(05:46):
if there were interested in that typeof thing. I think Dylan Brooks he
might not really make sense for Brooklyn, but just to get him back,
that's a I think that an assetthat this declining scale, this declining salary.
So if they're getting some control theirdraft back, get another player that
they could potentially flip later, it'ssomething I think that's still a pretty good
package. Basically, the moral ofthe story is you're close enough to maximum
(06:09):
salary cap room that as long asyou include one asset be it Jalen Dylan,
some asset of significance, then youwould get to max rome. Basically,
Yes, Okay, that's what Iwas thinking. And then the other
possibility with Jalen So as far asthe extensions, my read on Shingoon is
that there's so much value in thesixteen million dollar cap hole, similar as
Hyvey's Maxie and Philly issue said thatthey're probably going to take that to twenty
(06:30):
twenty five unless they make the bigdeal this summer. If they make the
big deal this summer, then youmight as well just give Shangooon the deal
the year early, because you're probablynot going to need that room, so
you may as well just you know, for the vibes, whatever you want
to call it, just give him, you know, the peace of mind
a year early. Otherwise you waitbecause there's just so much value in that
low cap hole as a mid firstrun pick. With Jalen Green, it's
interesting because so as cap hole isthirty one million dollars as the number two
(06:55):
overall pick in twenty twenty one.But I think you could potentially, now
I don't know what he would agreeto, but if you could get him
on something closer to like the contractthat Devin Vessel got in San Antonio,
I've seen some people throw that outas a template. I think that was
like five one point fifty five onesixty Does that sound about right? I
think the cell was five one thirtyfive five Okay, and it's much lower.
(07:16):
Yeah, okay, so it's lowerthan that. Okay, that's even
better than I was thinking. Butthe point is the starting figure for that
would be lower than the thirty onemillion dollar cap hole. So because of
that, it's really complicated to discussthus with Rockets fans because when I say
I think there's a there's a morelikely path to Jalen getting an extension than
Shinoon, a lot of people sortof recoil. It'd say, well,
(07:38):
hold on, like Shingoon's been abetter player to this point, at least
on a consistent basis than Jalen.That's true. However, because of the
cap hole, I think there isa path to Jalen getting an extension this
summer if he wants to give somethingback, because you would lower that cap
hole figure as opposed to Shinoon.You know, if if a big deal
happens and they just realize they don'tneed the room in twenty twenty five,
(07:59):
then maybe. But I mean,do you see where I'm going with that?
That, even though shouldn't Goon's beenthe better player than Jalen, the
odds of which one gets an extensionmight still favor Jalen. Yeah, So
to that I did, I wouldsay, like the yeah, they'd be
getting a little break on that whateverthat amount is, thirty one million CAVL
versus yeah, you know, maybetwenty six twenty seven million dollars free not
(08:22):
too big a difference, but something. But I did touch on the fact
that I think that if you know, if they if they can get him
on a rate they like, okay, you might as well keep them.
And if it helps still if it'sand it's a way that still helps with
their cap face flexibility, Okay,that all makes sense. But then the
only thing is that one, ifthey extend them now, it's gonna be
(08:43):
very hard to potentially trade them thisseason because then there's that quoint and fild
provision. Basically it kind of complicateshow the salary matching goes. And then
the other thing is just because youdon't extend Jalen Green now still doesn't make
him like one, you could resignhim in agency. But then two,
let's say you you know, aguy like Donovan Mitchell becomes available in twenty
(09:05):
twenty five agency. You could stillsign and trade Yell and Green. They're
still you could still you know,the ascid's still there in that in that
sense, maybe also you just wantto see, okay jailing Green, Like
what do you how much you wantlike thirty five million plus or a max?
What. I don't think we're goingto commit you to commit to that
right now. Let's see if whatyou did in the spring is for real.
We want you to play out theyear. I get the idea that
(09:28):
I give. Yeah, if theycan get him at a rate they really
really like you, just do it. But you know, being the number
two pick, there's like a pedigreethere. He just went crazy at the
end the season. Yeah, Ido get the feeling down one, like
you'll probably demand that, you'll probablyask for a mask max early on.
That just what you do early andwhen you're that high a pick, and
then you know, see what happensas we I would guess it's gets dragged
out closer to the start of theseason. Yeah, and conceivably the Rockets
(09:52):
could drag this out, not thenegotiations, but in terms of the evaluation
of whether he's worth it all theway to the trade deadline, and so
you have considerably more options if youdon't extend him, I think is what
you're saying. And if the Rocketsget to the trade deadline and it looks
like March was a fluke, thathe's able to sustain it, then you
know you have considerably more trade optionsat the middle of next season and leading
(10:13):
into you know, you mentioned evensigning trade possibilities and the ensuing off season
as a restricted free agent, andwant to underscore that for our audience.
Both these guys, really, anyplayer coming off the rookie scale deal is
going to be restricted, so youhave the right to match in the outside
offer. And that's why there's notthat much risk with a guy like all
for In Shinoon, even if it'splaying hardball. The good news for the
Rockets, I do think that evenif he wants the security, and you
(10:35):
know, deserve is always a trickyterm in the NBA, but I think
it's probably easier for a Felstone thatfront office that there's a guy like Tyris
Basey that they can point to.Tyros Baxley actually just won Most Improved Player,
Shinoon finished third, and the Rocketscan just point to him and say,
look, this was better for MAXIand the sixers, so they did
it, so why can't you dothe same thing. I mean, it's
a pretty easy case to make,right, Yeah. But at the same
(10:58):
time, I think it's also fortunatethat that knee injury of for Shengoon that
wasn't any worse than it was orelse that this might not even be a
conversation. It'd probably just wond dahlike I need no sign me like this
is I'm not doing that. SoI looked up the Devin Besel extension.
See one report for five one thirtyfive, another for five one forty six.
But yeah, basically split the difference. That would be something that would
(11:22):
intrigue me if it was available forJalen, But you're probably right. It's
number two overall pick and the wayhe finished last season, it would not
be a shock at all if hejust wants to bat on himself. And
if that's the case, then bothof those guys could play out into twenty
twenty five. So I'm actually curiouslooking at the timeline moving forward for the
Rockets. So you talked in yourvideo about the need for a consolidation move,
(11:43):
which I think a lot of ushave talked about for a while,
because the odds if the majority ofthese core six and maybe even a core
seven, if you keep the numberthree overall pick this coming draft, then
the odds of keeping all those guyslong term are probably pretty low. If
the majority of them pan out,just is you're going to get priced out.
The new CBA and the NBA makesit very difficult to keep that type
(12:03):
of team together. So, interms of the key dates moving forward,
so regardless of whether there's an extensionor not, twenty twenty five is when
the new contracts or Jalen and Shangoonwould go on their cap books. The
new contracts slash the cap holds,whatever it may be, Twenty twenty five
is the point that it materially changesyour financial picture for those two. Twenty
(12:26):
twenty six is when four of you'rsix you have jail in Shingun the previous
year, then Shabari Atari. Twentytwenty seven is when all six are on
their second deals, if conceivably they'restill in Houston. So when we talk
about when the Rockets need to consolidate, is it twenty twenty six? Is
it twenty twenty seven, is ittwenty twenty five? What is the point
under the new CBA where they sortof reach a point of no return if
(12:46):
you will. So, I thinkit won't happen all at once. I'm
sure it's going to be like aslow process, like maybe they do a
small a consolidation this year, maybea small one the next year. I
mean, there's really but there isno rush to do it right now,
and probably not even any rush todo it next year. Even once you
pay and going and Jalen Green you'reand you still have Fred van Blee,
(13:09):
you're that's still fine, Like youcould still you know, still want to
stable of the tax most likely unlessthat teams like a juggernaut or something.
But like at least the next twoyears, I think they're fine once Jabbari,
No, actually no, I thinkonce we get to the when when
I'm in and yeah like that,once we get there, yeah, then
maybe there's gonna be a little bitof a change. Now. Also by
(13:31):
then Fred VanVleet might uh might notbe with the rockets anymore. I one
thing I'm looking at uh I didn'ttalk about in my video, but you
know, they could potentially do someof these wild trade machinations that I came
up with and still keep Fred vanBliet, but probably had a lessermount,
which I think that's a very strongpossibility of happening anyway, where they could
(13:52):
decline this player option, maybe givehim like a three or four year deal
at a somewhere the thirty million dollarrange, and that'll allows them to make
it easier to keep Jabbari and Tariand maybe even on men you know,
depending But I'm guessing by the timeof time to pay, I'm in Fred
Vamiley won't be there anymore. Soand then likewise was you know, Dylan
(14:13):
Brick's contract will be gone. SoI but the big difference is, like
you got Fred Rambley making forty threemillion, Dylan Brooks making twenty two million.
Right now, those are the twohighest paid players. It's gonna be
a lot different when let's say Shingounggets some MAX contract he's making like forty
million year. Let's say Jaillen Green'smaking something over thirty million a year.
I think Jabari Smith probably is alsogoing to make over thirty million a year
(14:35):
at least. I then like it, you know, I don't know,
I can't even like the CAP's gonnabe so different from them, Like,
these guys are gonna make way way, way more money, Like it's like
having four fread Land beliefs almost,So that's the big difference. It's that
and why it's definitely a little harderto envision how this is all going to
work. Now. I do thinkif you're going to keep like even four
(14:56):
of those guys I mentioned, there'sa very good chance they're going to be
an attack. So hopefully the resultsare strong enough that it's justified. But
I would yeah, I guess onceit's time to pay on and that's when
things get a little it's pretty complicated. So twenty twenty seven, the last
of those three years, is sortof the firm deadline, and obviously you
(15:16):
don't want to drag it out tothe deadlike and then you have less leverage,
YadA YadA. But that's sort ofthe date that it becomes very very
difficult assuming you don't have widespread bust. And if you have widespread bust,
then you've got a different problem.But to this point, it doesn't look
like that's going to happen. AndI'm not even factoring in the other like
Sele tari Easson, like, youknow, he's going to get paid along
(15:37):
at the same time as Jabbari,Like, that's definitely a situation where I
could see, Yeah, but probablyif they can get him at a rate
they like, they'll keep them.But then like long term, once all
these guys are getting paid and ifhe's getting starter level money, okay,
then maybe there's a move that couldbe made. All right, So with
that in mind, I want togo through some of the scenarios where the
Rockets can make a big move becauseunlike like a year ago when the Rockets
(16:02):
were poised to have a salary caproom and it basically felt like they had
to take it to a free agencybecause the Rockets at the time, coming
off three straight twentyish win seasons,weren't very attractive on the trade market to
anyone that could leverage a deal.This is a little different because of that
young talent in place Rockets forty oneand forty one, and they should get
(16:22):
better just through internal growth because they'rea younger team as is conceivably as soon
as this offseason and certainly leading intothe trade deadline next year. The twenty
twenty five offseason and beyond, theyshould be very attractive. Houston one of
the bigger markets in the league aswell, So unlike twenty twenty three or
a team like Detroit in twenty twentyfour, where it feels like they're just
going to roll that cap space intofree agency and take whoever's the best on
(16:45):
the market, Houston conceivably could makea big move by trade this time.
And that's noteworthy because most of thereally upper tier names moved by trade these
days. You don't really see,as you talked about in your video,
really ever since twenty nineteen, Idon't see any true stars making it to
free agency. The outcome the Rocketshad in twenty twenty three with Fred VanVleet,
Dylan Brooks, Jeff Green, thosetypes, that's probably the realistic best
(17:07):
case outcome you can have if youspend all that type of max money and
beyond in free agency. Because thetrue stars are so valuable, teams you
know, push them for a decisiona year or two before their contract expires
rather than risk losing them for nocompensation. And so what makes the Rockets
in a unique position here is thata lot of the guys that are disgruntled,
(17:32):
let's say, situation is crazy,guys, which Houston fans can appreciate.
And that's what James Harden said whenhe wanted out four years ago or
however long it was. So thedisreuntal star be it Donovan Mitchell, you
used him in your video, orit can be someone else down the line.
So they want to move on.They typically want a chance to win
and they want a bigger market.And the majority of those teams don't really
(17:52):
have cap space. That's why they'regood. It's sort of rare that you
have a team that you know doeshave a good base, like the Rockets
do, but still at least inthe term, has a path to financial
flexibility. So because most of thedesirable teams don't have cap space, what
tends to happen to these situations.Let's use Dadvan Mitchell as an example.
Let's say he wants to go tothe Miami Heat. Well, the Miami
(18:14):
Heat don't have max tap room,so he can tell the Cavaliers, look,
this is where I want to go. But then he has to point
to some other team with cap spacelet's call them Team Why, and say
I reallybody go to Team X.But if you don't trade me there,
then I'm happy to go to TeamWhy and just sign their in free agency
and you lose me for no compensation. And the hope is that that sort
(18:37):
of bullies the Cavaliers into, youknow, trading into where he really wants
to go. The problem with thisis that the team that employs that player
generally knows that, hey, theydon't really want to go to Team Why,
so they have a decent bit ofleverage, and it often leads to
this sort of prolonged awkwardness where theteam is sort of like, hey,
even if you're a scunnled, wedon't have to trade you somewhere that doesn't
(18:59):
have cap space unless they give uspeak value, unless they give us exactly
what we want. Otherwise, youknow, we can sort of call your
bluff at least for a certain periodof time, and then it just drags
out and there's any number of outcomes. What's unique here is that the Rockets
could conceivably a have the cap spacejust sign a player directly, say in
twenty twenty five free agency, whenDonovan Mitchell could become a free agent,
(19:21):
and at the same time they're desirableenough to actually be a legitimate trade suitor
that he might want to go to. They are good enough, the market's
good enough, et cetera, etcetera, So the Rockets have considerably more
leverage. I think that's what you'regetting at in your video, is that
unlike most teams that have cap space, the Rockets aren't bad. The Rockets
are good as is. They havea lot of things going for them,
(19:42):
And unlike most teams that are good, the Rockets actually have the leverage to
outright sign that guy. So ateam that conceivably is you forced to trade
a guy like Davin Mitchell if hewants to go to Houston and the Rockets
have the room themselves to theoretically signthem in twenty twenty five, then that
can us the wheels a lot easierfor a move to take place in twenty
twenty four. Right you is anail on the head. That's I think
(20:06):
that is the point of cap spacein this new NBA. Teams are too
risk averse to just take their bestplayers into free agency. The only exception
is if it's like that type ofscenario. Okay, what if that comp
player's contract is so low you can'treally extend it to the max, which
they've changed the extension limits to tryto prevent that. But in most cases,
(20:26):
you're you want to commitment from yourguy, extend them because most likely
you can get him to his maxalready, and if there's no command and
then you're not gonna you know,like if you look at all the so
many teams lost star players in twentynineteen and even in the decade, but
you know, leading up to it, a lot of star movement that now
(20:47):
teams are they just they're going toavoid that. And then the only other
team that I can you know,it might be and things could change,
but the only other team right nowthat isn't an equal type of position as
Houston is Brooklyn, except they're notnearly as desirable. Yeah, the team
isn't as good. Yeah yeah,and the market there trying to keep them
(21:07):
together, like trying to have something, some type of base that might attract
the star by like like in comparisonto Houston, there's no comparison. Yeah,
I would agree, And that's Ithink what fans really undervalue because locally
and even nationally, I think alot of people sort of point to this
cap space that the Rockets could have, and it's really just a one year
window in twenty twenty five, becauseby the time you get twenty twenty six
(21:30):
and you have you know, capholes on the books for up to four
of your core six. I thinkit's considerably more complicated. But I think
a lot of fans look at itand think, well, the guys they
got last year were good, Butno one's going to say that Sightings along
the lines of Fred and Dylan arereally you know, transformative to where they
make you a contender. They're notsexy to that level, but when you
(21:51):
pair the cap space with the tradedesirability, then that potentially, you know,
that's something the Rockets have in twentytwenty five that even in twenty three
they didn't have. Yeah, andyou know, yeah, I think like
but there and the Bred and Dylansignings, they're definitely just it's very hard
to bring into guys like that.That really helped just change the tone and
(22:15):
everything because at the you know,they accomplished that for sure, and yeah,
everyone knows that the signing throw andlike, oh, these are the
long term scenario. These are likelong term fits, like you know,
anyone people understand that, like thiswas just like a like kind of a
bridge to the next great Rockets team. Yeah, exactly. And then one
(22:37):
final point I want to get towhen we talk about the need for consolidation.
I know there's, at least onRockets Twitter, there's a group that
doesn't really want to make any bigmoves because they just want to, you
know, develop the young core organically. I think one of the points of
your analysis that a lot of fansshould consider more is that because it's unlikely
(23:00):
you can keep all of the coresix long term, assuming that most of
these guys pan out, and well, I guess if they don't pan out,
then it doesn't really matter. Thena consolidation move. If you consolidate,
you know, two or three assetsfor a guy like Donovan or some
other all NBA type that becomes availableover the next twelve months. It's not
just about twenty twenty five free agency. It's about leveraging the threat of twenty
(23:22):
twenty five free agency. It couldbe as soon as this offseason, could
be during the season, could benext June, et cetera, et cetera.
So because it's unlikely that you cankeep those guys long term anyway,
then it makes sense to consolidate theasset into you know, obviously more certainty
in that you get an LMBA guy, you're not taking the risk of what
could be it's a guy that alreadyis. But beyond that, there's really
(23:45):
not that much downside because it's unlikelyyou're going to keep all of your core
six long term anyway, right andsix plus one Also, you know the
third overall pay point, which Ithink a lot of you know a lot
of people aren't even considering the intothe mix of things. Uh you know,
yeah, yeah, it's probably verygood chance it gets traded, but
uh yeah, you know, don'tyou don't even need to do a major
(24:07):
consolidation trade for an all NBA guylike like something I like, like,
you have Dylan Brooks right now makingLow's twenty million dollars a year to be
your fourth or fifth option. Yeah, eventually he you know you're gonna want
uh you know, you're gonna wantsomeone different for that, uh, someone
that fits a timeline a little more. What if? So that's kind of
whack. I'm kind of into themckill bridges thing because you know, now
(24:30):
he's being treated like a like afirst and then like potentially good second or
third option. But like if hecan be of like a really good third
or fourth option and he's making like, you know, a very like twenty
to twenty you know, around nomore than twenty percent of the cap,
that's a really good salary to havefor your fourth or fifth guy. Yeah,
(24:51):
so even if you conduce that kindof consolidation, that's that's a good
enough move too. But at thesame time, you could you know,
those same uh Kastantra talking about thatI want to keep the young guys.
They could probably make the argument,hey, we probably already have a guy
who can be like that. Maybeit's Taris and maybe so it's in a
way it is possible they could justmake it work with all these guys.
(25:14):
But eventually, like just for thesake of the finances, something's got to
change at least just a little bit. Yeah, long run, what year
does the new TV deal kick inin terms of its effect in the salary
cap? Is it twenty twenty five? Is it twenty twenty six. It's
basically already happening because there's not goingto be any salary cap spike. They're
(25:34):
just gonna they implemented ten moving piecesye yeahah, which seems like on the
surface not maybe not great, butlike these are compounding ten percent, Like
we're gonna get a salary cap prettysoon that's like two hundred million. Then
from there right way higher, likeit goes up higher faster. So yeah,
(25:56):
it's basically happening now, like italready being I'm pretty sure it's already
being not not for this upcoming salarycap here, it's only going to rise
by like four percent. Yeah,like every other year after that, it's
already being baked in. Okay,So there's not really an incentive to,
you know, be more aggressive withextensions. I've seen some people speculating about
that that maybe you want to,you know, extend more guys on the
(26:18):
front end before the cap explodes.It's going to be more just the smoothing
to where that's not really a factorin terms of when you extend guys.
Probably not, but you because thereis a very high degree of certainty that
the cap is gonna increase by tenpercent for like the next five six years
plus, it's never been easier toproject the salary cap in such a long
(26:41):
time span. So in a way, I guess you could really make that
type of you could really look intolike that type of scenario, just really
project that far out, see howan extension would fit into this year,
five six years for now, becauseyou probably already know what the salary cap
is, all right, the lastquestion I've got pertaining to this salary cap.
(27:04):
So we've talked throughout the spot aboutthe importance of financial flexibility in twenty
twenty five and what that allows theRockets to do. As you said earlier,
ideally, I don't think they wantto wait until twenty twenty five free
agency. It's about leveraging that possibilityinto a deal beforehand. So to have
that path, which is so importantfor leverage purposes, then you don't want
(27:26):
to give out any unnecessary deals thissummer. So I think the number three
pick that's enough of a positive valuethat I don't think that they're going to
desperately try to trade that. Imean, they could, as you said,
but if they keep it, look, I don't think it'd be that
difficult to offload read Shepherd Don vanKlingen if you need to for one reason
or another, they're going to havea market. They're young enough. I
(27:48):
don't think that would be an issuewhere there could be an issue. So
the mid level exception, there's alot of Rockets fans saying, look,
this team needs shooting, and youcan point to guys like, you know,
Malik Beasley, Buddy Heel. That'sa couple of guys have been pointed
to in that non taxpayer MLLE,which non taxpayer this year starts at like
thirteen million annually, right, Yeah, So if you want to get that
out for three or four years,you could get a pretty good player with
(28:11):
that. I mean, that's apretty good chunk of change these days,
even in the you know, explodingcap environment that we've been describing. But
if you give let's use Buddy Heeldas an example, if you give Buddy
Heeld a full MLLE for four years, I don't know for sure that Buddy
held in twenty twenty five, ifhe's in his thirties on a you know,
has three years, forty million dollarsleft is going to be a positive
(28:34):
value on that deal, especially becausethe Rockets basically have a nine man rotation
as it is, so it's uncertainhow much any of these guys are actually
going to get to play from aminute's perspective. So with that in mind,
it makes me think that they maybe a little more cautious the same
way last year. You know,they spent aggressively on Fred and Dylan.
(28:55):
Now with Fred they did get theteam option on year three, but Friend
Dylan record guys they saw them asessential, and then the rest of their
guys once they didn't get pri Cloveez, so Jock Landale, Jay Shuntate,
who well Tate beside the year before, but this same type of contract,
Jeff Green, Aaron Holliday all onbasically one year deals, and you know
Landale and Jeff Green have the teamoptions. But the point is they went
(29:17):
for friendly contracts. That was thepriority for them if it wasn't the guy
that was essential to the core.And so I'm sort of seeing that same
dynamic as likely to play out thissummer, and that even if they have
to go a slightly lower tier ofshooter than Buddy Heal, then in my
opinion, it's probably worth it becauseyou preserve that pathway to twenty twenty five.
So that's sort of I don't wantto say they would only give a
(29:38):
one year deal. I mean,maybe you would give a two year deal
if you feel because the second yearwould be expiring, and so you could
probably offload that or maybe there's apartial guarantee. But basically, because of
the importance of twenty twenty five flexibility, it's sort of hard to envision them
giving a four year MLE unless it'ssuch a positive value that they had no
(29:59):
doubt whatsoever player would have positive value. You're from now, does that make
sense to you? Yeah, Ihadn't even considered the idea they might repeat
what they just what they did withJack Landale and Jeff Green with their mid
level exception, So you know,that makes a ton of sense. Yeah,
you know, Like, so you'retalking about bringing in a shooter,
one guy I could see conceivably makingsense for what you just pitching that can
(30:19):
also help the team, maybe MalikBeasley, where you can give him the
entire maybe not the entire thing,but like a good amount of it.
You don't have to lock him intoyour rotation because the rockets are already like
ten deep, but and you couldstill plug him in and you still have
them for trade purposes down the line. Well, I think that's pretty much
(30:40):
everything that I had on my list. Anything else that you want to throw
out as far as rocket salary,cap items. I do capsheets dot Com
is the website, right, yeah, that's my website. It's very simple.
It's just the current and next seasoncab sheets for each team and update
them pretty immediately, very mobile friendly, so you'll so you know, definitely,
(31:00):
now is the time of year tostart checking that out. All right,
Well, I think that's where wewill wrap things for today's show.
If you want more content from usbefore next time, the best place to
get it is on Twitter. Youcan follow Yosi on there at Yo Si
Goslin NBA. Correct, that's right, yeah, yeah, that's my YouTube
channel, and then I could followme on Twitter at just adioc Goslin.
(31:21):
Oh that's right, yeah, YouTube, yeah, yeah, yeah, YouTube
is then Josee Goslin NBA. Goahead, Yo, see Goslin's taken on
YouTube. Apparently there you go.All right, so just Yocie Goslin on
Twitter. All right, Well forme, you can follow me on dead
du Vos just by name and thisshow at the logger line And if you
go to the logger lines page onTwitter, you could of course find your
link tree, which has links todistribution partners Apple, Google, Spotify.
(31:44):
We kind of have to subscribe,leave positive review at your location of choice.
Of course, we would appreciate that. Also on that same lintree you
can find links to our friends,sponsors and partners, USA Today's Rockets Wire,
Carbark Brewering, Sports Talk, SEPNninety. Hit those links and you
can enjoy their content as well.With those plugs complete well' jurn for two
for Yosi. I'm Ben, Thanksas always for listening, and please come
back soon for another new episode ofthe Longer Line.
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome toThe Logger Line, an exclusive podcast from
the home of the Rockets, SportsTalk seven ninety. The Logger Line.
It's proudly served to you by carBox Clutch City Lagger. It is God
Oh Yeah, Red Nation. GetReady, Ready, Get Ready. The
(00:26):
lagger Line starts now. Welcome aboard. Thanks for tuning in for another new
episode of The Logger Line, asalways served to you courtesy of Clutch City
Lagger of Carback Brewing. I'm BenDubos, your host, editor of USA
(00:47):
Today's Rocket Squire and contributor to SportsTalk seven ninety, the official flagship radio
sation of your Houston Rockets. PalloAwl's my usual co host, couldn't make
a schedule work for this episode,but he will be back next week.
Today, You've got a special shwith yoc Goslin, NBA salary cap expert.
He's previously written about matters really everythingrelated to the salary cap for hoops
Hype and now operates the website capsheetsdot com, which has updated salary figures
(01:11):
and information for teams all across theleague. He also operates his own YouTube
channel at Yocgoslin NBA. That's Yossigoz l a n NBA and his Twitter
slash x handle is at Yo Cgoslin. Anyway, at that YouTube page,
yous has been publishing these team specificoutlook videos for the past month or so,
and his Rockets version came out justa few days ago. For the
(01:34):
benefit of our listeners, I willlink that to the summary of this podcast
belong story short for those who haven'theard it yet, You'll see you're pretty
bullish on the future of the Rocketsfrom a cap perspective, and specifically as
it pertains to Houston's ability to makea major move in the relatively near future.
So if you could just at ahigh level explain why that is and
what you mean by that. So, when looking at Houston situation one,
(01:57):
they've already drafted extremely real well,they've had like two on average of at
least two good players per draft andthat's number one. So they have all
these guys and eventually they're going tohave to make some tough decisions on who
they want to keep, who theymight have to potentially move on from and
maybe consolidate. But then the otherthing is they have the flexibility in the
(02:22):
future they have cap space potentially nextyear, which I think ideally they don't
want to get there, but ifthey but since they have that capture,
they do have some optionality through tradepotentially where they can make a big,
significant upgrade in the near future.Yeah, I think a lot of people
don't appreciate just how much flexibility theyhave because we sort of built off twenty
(02:45):
twenty three as the one year theywould have to spend big. But because
the biggest piece of their spending,Fred van Fleet, was basically on a
two year deal, the last beinga team option, there actually is one
more window in twenty twenty five beforethe majority of your second cond tracks kick
in. For the core six.You will have at least cap holes on
the books for Jalen Green and allPrinching going their second contracts, assuming they're
(03:06):
still here. But even with thosecap holes, you could still have maximum
room in twenty twenty five. Right, Yeah, there's definitely different type with
Jalen Green not so much, andin my scenarios in the videos because he
has such a large capole that's alittle tricky. But anyways, like he's
already been a rumored to be intrade packages for carriages in the past,
(03:27):
and presumably if if Donovan Mitchell wasinterested in going to Houston, then he'd
probably be big with there. SoI'm not really factoring in Jalen Green too
much in this in these big scenarios, but the Shagug part is super interesting
because his cap hool that is verylow. So I'm going to be very
interested to see if they're if theyagreed to an extension or not during the
off season, because this was somethingthat basically what the strategy is, you
(03:52):
don't extend them, you make themhit for a stractfree agency just so you
have a he'd basically have like extratwenty million. They have an extra twenty
twenty million dollars in cap space versusif they extend him. Now, the
Sixers just did this with Tyrese maxinnow they're going to reward him with the
Max. So it hasn't been practicedsince I think like the last big notable
time was Kawhi Leonard in the Spursand he just led them to a championship
(04:15):
and they said, no, we'renot extending you because we want cap shakes
next year, and they got laMarcus Aldridge and then it all worked out.
But I may have left a badtaste in his mouth. Yeah,
but it'll be interesting to see ifthey try to do that with Shangoon,
because if they can take care oftheir well, you know, whatever big
move they want to make now,then you might as well just extend them.
Yeah, I guess that's true.Well, let me think of one
(04:38):
other hypothetical. So with the Bridgestalk of late and from what I've heard,
I actually don't think the Rockets aregoing to go down that road.
But if they did, there's beensome talk of what if they included Dylan
Brooks instead of Jalen Green in theas a salary matching vehicle for Mikhail Bridges.
If you took Dylan steal off,you could conceive it still have max
(05:00):
room with the Jalen cap hold,right, because Dylan's at like twenty two
basically, I yeah, you knowthat should be right just off the top
of my head. Okay, Soyeah, I see your point, in
which you know, Chagoo's sixteen milliondollars cap hold, you can keep that
and still have max room. Nowyou have to subtract something else, and
so Jalen would be the easiest.But theoretically you could use Dylan in that
place as well. Yeah, andI suppose at this point, like obviously,
(05:26):
if you know, we don't knowhow true those negotiations were in the
trade headline, but I'm sure theRockets are pretty fortunate that Brooklyn said no.
Right, and now that it's morenow it might be you know,
if let's say Brooklyn is interested.I mean, we saw the heater Jalen
Green went on in March eight art. Well, you know, now at
this point it's maybe how much drafticwould he could the Nets get back if
(05:46):
if there were interested in that typeof thing. I think Dylan Brooks he
might not really make sense for Brooklyn, but just to get him back,
that's a I think that an assetthat this declining scale, this declining salary.
So if they're getting some control theirdraft back, get another player that
they could potentially flip later, it'ssomething I think that's still a pretty good
package. Basically, the moral ofthe story is you're close enough to maximum
(06:09):
salary cap room that as long asyou include one asset be it Jalen Dylan,
some asset of significance, then youwould get to max rome. Basically,
Yes, Okay, that's what Iwas thinking. And then the other
possibility with Jalen So as far asthe extensions, my read on Shingoon is
that there's so much value in thesixteen million dollar cap hole, similar as
Hyvey's Maxie and Philly issue said thatthey're probably going to take that to twenty
(06:30):
twenty five unless they make the bigdeal this summer. If they make the
big deal this summer, then youmight as well just give Shangooon the deal
the year early, because you're probablynot going to need that room, so
you may as well just you know, for the vibes, whatever you want
to call it, just give him, you know, the peace of mind
a year early. Otherwise you waitbecause there's just so much value in that
low cap hole as a mid firstrun pick. With Jalen Green, it's
interesting because so as cap hole isthirty one million dollars as the number two
(06:55):
overall pick in twenty twenty one.But I think you could potentially, now
I don't know what he would agreeto, but if you could get him
on something closer to like the contractthat Devin Vessel got in San Antonio,
I've seen some people throw that outas a template. I think that was
like five one point fifty five onesixty Does that sound about right? I
think the cell was five one thirtyfive five Okay, and it's much lower.
(07:16):
Yeah, okay, so it's lowerthan that. Okay, that's even
better than I was thinking. Butthe point is the starting figure for that
would be lower than the thirty onemillion dollar cap hole. So because of
that, it's really complicated to discussthus with Rockets fans because when I say
I think there's a there's a morelikely path to Jalen getting an extension than
Shinoon, a lot of people sortof recoil. It'd say, well,
(07:38):
hold on, like Shingoon's been abetter player to this point, at least
on a consistent basis than Jalen.That's true. However, because of the
cap hole, I think there isa path to Jalen getting an extension this
summer if he wants to give somethingback, because you would lower that cap
hole figure as opposed to Shinoon.You know, if if a big deal
happens and they just realize they don'tneed the room in twenty twenty five,
(07:59):
then maybe. But I mean,do you see where I'm going with that?
That, even though shouldn't Goon's beenthe better player than Jalen, the
odds of which one gets an extensionmight still favor Jalen. Yeah, So
to that I did, I wouldsay, like the yeah, they'd be
getting a little break on that whateverthat amount is, thirty one million CAVL
versus yeah, you know, maybetwenty six twenty seven million dollars free not
(08:22):
too big a difference, but something. But I did touch on the fact
that I think that if you know, if they if they can get him
on a rate they like, okay, you might as well keep them.
And if it helps still if it'sand it's a way that still helps with
their cap face flexibility, Okay,that all makes sense. But then the
only thing is that one, ifthey extend them now, it's gonna be
(08:43):
very hard to potentially trade them thisseason because then there's that quoint and fild
provision. Basically it kind of complicateshow the salary matching goes. And then
the other thing is just because youdon't extend Jalen Green now still doesn't make
him like one, you could resignhim in agency. But then two,
let's say you you know, aguy like Donovan Mitchell becomes available in twenty
(09:05):
twenty five agency. You could stillsign and trade Yell and Green. They're
still you could still you know,the ascid's still there in that in that
sense, maybe also you just wantto see, okay jailing Green, Like
what do you how much you wantlike thirty five million plus or a max?
What. I don't think we're goingto commit you to commit to that
right now. Let's see if whatyou did in the spring is for real.
We want you to play out theyear. I get the idea that
(09:28):
I give. Yeah, if theycan get him at a rate they really
really like you, just do it. But you know, being the number
two pick, there's like a pedigreethere. He just went crazy at the
end the season. Yeah, Ido get the feeling down one, like
you'll probably demand that, you'll probablyask for a mask max early on.
That just what you do early andwhen you're that high a pick, and
then you know, see what happensas we I would guess it's gets dragged
out closer to the start of theseason. Yeah, and conceivably the Rockets
(09:52):
could drag this out, not thenegotiations, but in terms of the evaluation
of whether he's worth it all theway to the trade deadline, and so
you have considerably more options if youdon't extend him, I think is what
you're saying. And if the Rocketsget to the trade deadline and it looks
like March was a fluke, thathe's able to sustain it, then you
know you have considerably more trade optionsat the middle of next season and leading
(10:13):
into you know, you mentioned evensigning trade possibilities and the ensuing off season
as a restricted free agent, andwant to underscore that for our audience.
Both these guys, really, anyplayer coming off the rookie scale deal is
going to be restricted, so youhave the right to match in the outside
offer. And that's why there's notthat much risk with a guy like all
for In Shinoon, even if it'splaying hardball. The good news for the
Rockets, I do think that evenif he wants the security, and you
(10:35):
know, deserve is always a trickyterm in the NBA, but I think
it's probably easier for a Felstone thatfront office that there's a guy like Tyris
Basey that they can point to.Tyros Baxley actually just won Most Improved Player,
Shinoon finished third, and the Rocketscan just point to him and say,
look, this was better for MAXIand the sixers, so they did
it, so why can't you dothe same thing. I mean, it's
a pretty easy case to make,right, Yeah. But at the same
(10:58):
time, I think it's also fortunatethat that knee injury of for Shengoon that
wasn't any worse than it was orelse that this might not even be a
conversation. It'd probably just wond dahlike I need no sign me like this
is I'm not doing that. SoI looked up the Devin Besel extension.
See one report for five one thirtyfive, another for five one forty six.
But yeah, basically split the difference. That would be something that would
(11:22):
intrigue me if it was available forJalen, But you're probably right. It's
number two overall pick and the wayhe finished last season, it would not
be a shock at all if hejust wants to bat on himself. And
if that's the case, then bothof those guys could play out into twenty
twenty five. So I'm actually curiouslooking at the timeline moving forward for the
Rockets. So you talked in yourvideo about the need for a consolidation move,
(11:43):
which I think a lot of ushave talked about for a while,
because the odds if the majority ofthese core six and maybe even a core
seven, if you keep the numberthree overall pick this coming draft, then
the odds of keeping all those guyslong term are probably pretty low. If
the majority of them pan out,just is you're going to get priced out.
The new CBA and the NBA makesit very difficult to keep that type
(12:03):
of team together. So, interms of the key dates moving forward,
so regardless of whether there's an extensionor not, twenty twenty five is when
the new contracts or Jalen and Shangoonwould go on their cap books. The
new contracts slash the cap holds,whatever it may be, Twenty twenty five
is the point that it materially changesyour financial picture for those two. Twenty
(12:26):
twenty six is when four of you'rsix you have jail in Shingun the previous
year, then Shabari Atari. Twentytwenty seven is when all six are on
their second deals, if conceivably they'restill in Houston. So when we talk
about when the Rockets need to consolidate, is it twenty twenty six? Is
it twenty twenty seven, is ittwenty twenty five? What is the point
under the new CBA where they sortof reach a point of no return if
(12:46):
you will. So, I thinkit won't happen all at once. I'm
sure it's going to be like aslow process, like maybe they do a
small a consolidation this year, maybea small one the next year. I
mean, there's really but there isno rush to do it right now,
and probably not even any rush todo it next year. Even once you
pay and going and Jalen Green you'reand you still have Fred van Blee,
(13:09):
you're that's still fine, Like youcould still you know, still want to
stable of the tax most likely unlessthat teams like a juggernaut or something.
But like at least the next twoyears, I think they're fine once Jabbari,
No, actually no, I thinkonce we get to the when when
I'm in and yeah like that,once we get there, yeah, then
maybe there's gonna be a little bitof a change. Now. Also by
(13:31):
then Fred VanVleet might uh might notbe with the rockets anymore. I one
thing I'm looking at uh I didn'ttalk about in my video, but you
know, they could potentially do someof these wild trade machinations that I came
up with and still keep Fred vanBliet, but probably had a lessermount,
which I think that's a very strongpossibility of happening anyway, where they could
(13:52):
decline this player option, maybe givehim like a three or four year deal
at a somewhere the thirty million dollarrange, and that'll allows them to make
it easier to keep Jabbari and Tariand maybe even on men you know,
depending But I'm guessing by the timeof time to pay, I'm in Fred
Vamiley won't be there anymore. Soand then likewise was you know, Dylan
(14:13):
Brick's contract will be gone. SoI but the big difference is, like
you got Fred Rambley making forty threemillion, Dylan Brooks making twenty two million.
Right now, those are the twohighest paid players. It's gonna be
a lot different when let's say Shingounggets some MAX contract he's making like forty
million year. Let's say Jaillen Green'smaking something over thirty million a year.
I think Jabari Smith probably is alsogoing to make over thirty million a year
(14:35):
at least. I then like it, you know, I don't know,
I can't even like the CAP's gonnabe so different from them, Like,
these guys are gonna make way way, way more money, Like it's like
having four fread Land beliefs almost,So that's the big difference. It's that
and why it's definitely a little harderto envision how this is all going to
work. Now. I do thinkif you're going to keep like even four
(14:56):
of those guys I mentioned, there'sa very good chance they're going to be
an attack. So hopefully the resultsare strong enough that it's justified. But
I would yeah, I guess onceit's time to pay on and that's when
things get a little it's pretty complicated. So twenty twenty seven, the last
of those three years, is sortof the firm deadline, and obviously you
(15:16):
don't want to drag it out tothe deadlike and then you have less leverage,
YadA YadA. But that's sort ofthe date that it becomes very very
difficult assuming you don't have widespread bust. And if you have widespread bust,
then you've got a different problem.But to this point, it doesn't look
like that's going to happen. AndI'm not even factoring in the other like
Sele tari Easson, like, youknow, he's going to get paid along
(15:37):
at the same time as Jabbari,Like, that's definitely a situation where I
could see, Yeah, but probablyif they can get him at a rate
they like, they'll keep them.But then like long term, once all
these guys are getting paid and ifhe's getting starter level money, okay,
then maybe there's a move that couldbe made. All right, So with
that in mind, I want togo through some of the scenarios where the
Rockets can make a big move becauseunlike like a year ago when the Rockets
(16:02):
were poised to have a salary caproom and it basically felt like they had
to take it to a free agencybecause the Rockets at the time, coming
off three straight twentyish win seasons,weren't very attractive on the trade market to
anyone that could leverage a deal.This is a little different because of that
young talent in place Rockets forty oneand forty one, and they should get
(16:22):
better just through internal growth because they'rea younger team as is conceivably as soon
as this offseason and certainly leading intothe trade deadline next year. The twenty
twenty five offseason and beyond, theyshould be very attractive. Houston one of
the bigger markets in the league aswell, So unlike twenty twenty three or
a team like Detroit in twenty twentyfour, where it feels like they're just
going to roll that cap space intofree agency and take whoever's the best on
(16:45):
the market, Houston conceivably could makea big move by trade this time.
And that's noteworthy because most of thereally upper tier names moved by trade these
days. You don't really see,as you talked about in your video,
really ever since twenty nineteen, Idon't see any true stars making it to
free agency. The outcome the Rocketshad in twenty twenty three with Fred VanVleet,
Dylan Brooks, Jeff Green, thosetypes, that's probably the realistic best
(17:07):
case outcome you can have if youspend all that type of max money and
beyond in free agency. Because thetrue stars are so valuable, teams you
know, push them for a decisiona year or two before their contract expires
rather than risk losing them for nocompensation. And so what makes the Rockets
in a unique position here is thata lot of the guys that are disgruntled,
(17:32):
let's say, situation is crazy,guys, which Houston fans can appreciate.
And that's what James Harden said whenhe wanted out four years ago or
however long it was. So thedisreuntal star be it Donovan Mitchell, you
used him in your video, orit can be someone else down the line.
So they want to move on.They typically want a chance to win
and they want a bigger market.And the majority of those teams don't really
(17:52):
have cap space. That's why they'regood. It's sort of rare that you
have a team that you know doeshave a good base, like the Rockets
do, but still at least inthe term, has a path to financial
flexibility. So because most of thedesirable teams don't have cap space, what
tends to happen to these situations.Let's use Dadvan Mitchell as an example.
Let's say he wants to go tothe Miami Heat. Well, the Miami
(18:14):
Heat don't have max tap room,so he can tell the Cavaliers, look,
this is where I want to go. But then he has to point
to some other team with cap spacelet's call them Team Why, and say
I reallybody go to Team X.But if you don't trade me there,
then I'm happy to go to TeamWhy and just sign their in free agency
and you lose me for no compensation. And the hope is that that sort
(18:37):
of bullies the Cavaliers into, youknow, trading into where he really wants
to go. The problem with thisis that the team that employs that player
generally knows that, hey, theydon't really want to go to Team Why,
so they have a decent bit ofleverage, and it often leads to
this sort of prolonged awkwardness where theteam is sort of like, hey,
even if you're a scunnled, wedon't have to trade you somewhere that doesn't
(18:59):
have cap space unless they give uspeak value, unless they give us exactly
what we want. Otherwise, youknow, we can sort of call your
bluff at least for a certain periodof time, and then it just drags
out and there's any number of outcomes. What's unique here is that the Rockets
could conceivably a have the cap spacejust sign a player directly, say in
twenty twenty five free agency, whenDonovan Mitchell could become a free agent,
(19:21):
and at the same time they're desirableenough to actually be a legitimate trade suitor
that he might want to go to. They are good enough, the market's
good enough, et cetera, etcetera, So the Rockets have considerably more
leverage. I think that's what you'regetting at in your video, is that
unlike most teams that have cap space, the Rockets aren't bad. The Rockets
are good as is. They havea lot of things going for them,
(19:42):
And unlike most teams that are good, the Rockets actually have the leverage to
outright sign that guy. So ateam that conceivably is you forced to trade
a guy like Davin Mitchell if hewants to go to Houston and the Rockets
have the room themselves to theoretically signthem in twenty twenty five, then that
can us the wheels a lot easierfor a move to take place in twenty
twenty four. Right you is anail on the head. That's I think
(20:06):
that is the point of cap spacein this new NBA. Teams are too
risk averse to just take their bestplayers into free agency. The only exception
is if it's like that type ofscenario. Okay, what if that comp
player's contract is so low you can'treally extend it to the max, which
they've changed the extension limits to tryto prevent that. But in most cases,
(20:26):
you're you want to commitment from yourguy, extend them because most likely
you can get him to his maxalready, and if there's no command and
then you're not gonna you know,like if you look at all the so
many teams lost star players in twentynineteen and even in the decade, but
you know, leading up to it, a lot of star movement that now
(20:47):
teams are they just they're going toavoid that. And then the only other
team that I can you know,it might be and things could change,
but the only other team right nowthat isn't an equal type of position as
Houston is Brooklyn, except they're notnearly as desirable. Yeah, the team
isn't as good. Yeah yeah,and the market there trying to keep them
(21:07):
together, like trying to have something, some type of base that might attract
the star by like like in comparisonto Houston, there's no comparison. Yeah,
I would agree, And that's Ithink what fans really undervalue because locally
and even nationally, I think alot of people sort of point to this
cap space that the Rockets could have, and it's really just a one year
window in twenty twenty five, becauseby the time you get twenty twenty six
(21:30):
and you have you know, capholes on the books for up to four
of your core six. I thinkit's considerably more complicated. But I think
a lot of fans look at itand think, well, the guys they
got last year were good, Butno one's going to say that Sightings along
the lines of Fred and Dylan arereally you know, transformative to where they
make you a contender. They're notsexy to that level, but when you
(21:51):
pair the cap space with the tradedesirability, then that potentially, you know,
that's something the Rockets have in twentytwenty five that even in twenty three
they didn't have. Yeah, andyou know, yeah, I think like
but there and the Bred and Dylansignings, they're definitely just it's very hard
to bring into guys like that.That really helped just change the tone and
(22:15):
everything because at the you know,they accomplished that for sure, and yeah,
everyone knows that the signing throw andlike, oh, these are the
long term scenario. These are likelong term fits, like you know,
anyone people understand that, like thiswas just like a like kind of a
bridge to the next great Rockets team. Yeah, exactly. And then one
(22:37):
final point I want to get towhen we talk about the need for consolidation.
I know there's, at least onRockets Twitter, there's a group that
doesn't really want to make any bigmoves because they just want to, you
know, develop the young core organically. I think one of the points of
your analysis that a lot of fansshould consider more is that because it's unlikely
(23:00):
you can keep all of the coresix long term, assuming that most of
these guys pan out, and well, I guess if they don't pan out,
then it doesn't really matter. Thena consolidation move. If you consolidate,
you know, two or three assetsfor a guy like Donovan or some
other all NBA type that becomes availableover the next twelve months. It's not
just about twenty twenty five free agency. It's about leveraging the threat of twenty
(23:22):
twenty five free agency. It couldbe as soon as this offseason, could
be during the season, could benext June, et cetera, et cetera.
So because it's unlikely that you cankeep those guys long term anyway,
then it makes sense to consolidate theasset into you know, obviously more certainty
in that you get an LMBA guy, you're not taking the risk of what
could be it's a guy that alreadyis. But beyond that, there's really
(23:45):
not that much downside because it's unlikelyyou're going to keep all of your core
six long term anyway, right andsix plus one Also, you know the
third overall pay point, which Ithink a lot of you know a lot
of people aren't even considering the intothe mix of things. Uh you know,
yeah, yeah, it's probably verygood chance it gets traded, but
uh yeah, you know, don'tyou don't even need to do a major
(24:07):
consolidation trade for an all NBA guylike like something I like, like,
you have Dylan Brooks right now makingLow's twenty million dollars a year to be
your fourth or fifth option. Yeah, eventually he you know you're gonna want
uh you know, you're gonna wantsomeone different for that, uh, someone
that fits a timeline a little more. What if? So that's kind of
whack. I'm kind of into themckill bridges thing because you know, now
(24:30):
he's being treated like a like afirst and then like potentially good second or
third option. But like if hecan be of like a really good third
or fourth option and he's making like, you know, a very like twenty
to twenty you know, around nomore than twenty percent of the cap,
that's a really good salary to havefor your fourth or fifth guy. Yeah,
(24:51):
so even if you conduce that kindof consolidation, that's that's a good
enough move too. But at thesame time, you could you know,
those same uh Kastantra talking about thatI want to keep the young guys.
They could probably make the argument,hey, we probably already have a guy
who can be like that. Maybeit's Taris and maybe so it's in a
way it is possible they could justmake it work with all these guys.
(25:14):
But eventually, like just for thesake of the finances, something's got to
change at least just a little bit. Yeah, long run, what year
does the new TV deal kick inin terms of its effect in the salary
cap? Is it twenty twenty five? Is it twenty twenty six. It's
basically already happening because there's not goingto be any salary cap spike. They're
(25:34):
just gonna they implemented ten moving piecesye yeahah, which seems like on the
surface not maybe not great, butlike these are compounding ten percent, Like
we're gonna get a salary cap prettysoon that's like two hundred million. Then
from there right way higher, likeit goes up higher faster. So yeah,
(25:56):
it's basically happening now, like italready being I'm pretty sure it's already
being not not for this upcoming salarycap here, it's only going to rise
by like four percent. Yeah,like every other year after that, it's
already being baked in. Okay,So there's not really an incentive to,
you know, be more aggressive withextensions. I've seen some people speculating about
that that maybe you want to,you know, extend more guys on the
(26:18):
front end before the cap explodes.It's going to be more just the smoothing
to where that's not really a factorin terms of when you extend guys.
Probably not, but you because thereis a very high degree of certainty that
the cap is gonna increase by tenpercent for like the next five six years
plus, it's never been easier toproject the salary cap in such a long
(26:41):
time span. So in a way, I guess you could really make that
type of you could really look intolike that type of scenario, just really
project that far out, see howan extension would fit into this year,
five six years for now, becauseyou probably already know what the salary cap
is, all right, the lastquestion I've got pertaining to this salary cap.
(27:04):
So we've talked throughout the spot aboutthe importance of financial flexibility in twenty
twenty five and what that allows theRockets to do. As you said earlier,
ideally, I don't think they wantto wait until twenty twenty five free
agency. It's about leveraging that possibilityinto a deal beforehand. So to have
that path, which is so importantfor leverage purposes, then you don't want
(27:26):
to give out any unnecessary deals thissummer. So I think the number three
pick that's enough of a positive valuethat I don't think that they're going to
desperately try to trade that. Imean, they could, as you said,
but if they keep it, look, I don't think it'd be that
difficult to offload read Shepherd Don vanKlingen if you need to for one reason
or another, they're going to havea market. They're young enough. I
(27:48):
don't think that would be an issuewhere there could be an issue. So
the mid level exception, there's alot of Rockets fans saying, look,
this team needs shooting, and youcan point to guys like, you know,
Malik Beasley, Buddy Heel. That'sa couple of guys have been pointed
to in that non taxpayer MLLE,which non taxpayer this year starts at like
thirteen million annually, right, Yeah, So if you want to get that
out for three or four years,you could get a pretty good player with
(28:11):
that. I mean, that's apretty good chunk of change these days,
even in the you know, explodingcap environment that we've been describing. But
if you give let's use Buddy Heeldas an example, if you give Buddy
Heeld a full MLLE for four years, I don't know for sure that Buddy
held in twenty twenty five, ifhe's in his thirties on a you know,
has three years, forty million dollarsleft is going to be a positive
(28:34):
value on that deal, especially becausethe Rockets basically have a nine man rotation
as it is, so it's uncertainhow much any of these guys are actually
going to get to play from aminute's perspective. So with that in mind,
it makes me think that they maybe a little more cautious the same
way last year. You know,they spent aggressively on Fred and Dylan.
(28:55):
Now with Fred they did get theteam option on year three, but Friend
Dylan record guys they saw them asessential, and then the rest of their
guys once they didn't get pri Cloveez, so Jock Landale, Jay Shuntate,
who well Tate beside the year before, but this same type of contract,
Jeff Green, Aaron Holliday all onbasically one year deals, and you know
Landale and Jeff Green have the teamoptions. But the point is they went
(29:17):
for friendly contracts. That was thepriority for them if it wasn't the guy
that was essential to the core.And so I'm sort of seeing that same
dynamic as likely to play out thissummer, and that even if they have
to go a slightly lower tier ofshooter than Buddy Heal, then in my
opinion, it's probably worth it becauseyou preserve that pathway to twenty twenty five.
So that's sort of I don't wantto say they would only give a
(29:38):
one year deal. I mean,maybe you would give a two year deal
if you feel because the second yearwould be expiring, and so you could
probably offload that or maybe there's apartial guarantee. But basically, because of
the importance of twenty twenty five flexibility, it's sort of hard to envision them
giving a four year MLE unless it'ssuch a positive value that they had no
(29:59):
doubt whatsoever player would have positive value. You're from now, does that make
sense to you? Yeah, Ihadn't even considered the idea they might repeat
what they just what they did withJack Landale and Jeff Green with their mid
level exception, So you know,that makes a ton of sense. Yeah,
you know, Like, so you'retalking about bringing in a shooter,
one guy I could see conceivably makingsense for what you just pitching that can
(30:19):
also help the team, maybe MalikBeasley, where you can give him the
entire maybe not the entire thing,but like a good amount of it.
You don't have to lock him intoyour rotation because the rockets are already like
ten deep, but and you couldstill plug him in and you still have
them for trade purposes down the line. Well, I think that's pretty much
(30:40):
everything that I had on my list. Anything else that you want to throw
out as far as rocket salary,cap items. I do capsheets dot Com
is the website, right, yeah, that's my website. It's very simple.
It's just the current and next seasoncab sheets for each team and update
them pretty immediately, very mobile friendly, so you'll so you know, definitely,
(31:00):
now is the time of year tostart checking that out. All right,
Well, I think that's where wewill wrap things for today's show.
If you want more content from usbefore next time, the best place to
get it is on Twitter. Youcan follow Yosi on there at Yo Si
Goslin NBA. Correct, that's right, yeah, yeah, that's my YouTube
channel, and then I could followme on Twitter at just adioc Goslin.
(31:21):
Oh that's right, yeah, YouTube, yeah, yeah, yeah, YouTube
is then Josee Goslin NBA. Goahead, Yo, see Goslin's taken on
YouTube. Apparently there you go.All right, so just Yocie Goslin on
Twitter. All right, Well forme, you can follow me on dead
du Vos just by name and thisshow at the logger line And if you
go to the logger lines page onTwitter, you could of course find your
link tree, which has links todistribution partners Apple, Google, Spotify.
(31:44):
We kind of have to subscribe,leave positive review at your location of choice.
Of course, we would appreciate that. Also on that same lintree you
can find links to our friends,sponsors and partners, USA Today's Rockets Wire,
Carbark Brewering, Sports Talk, SEPNninety. Hit those links and you
can enjoy their content as well.With those plugs complete well' jurn for two
for Yosi. I'm Ben, Thanksas always for listening, and please come
back soon for another new episode ofthe Longer Line.
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