On today's episode, Jason and Producer Rob G kick things off with a deep dive into the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' season-opening victory over the Dallas Cowboys. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense marched up and down the field all night but were unable to capitalize on the Buccaneers turnovers and went just 1-for-4 in the red zone. Even worse, the Dallas defense was as porous as ever. On the flip side, Tom Brady continues to defy Father Time as he absolutely carved up the Cowboys. Were it not for all the turnovers, Brady may have hung up a 50 burger. The scary part about all this is the Bucs probably played a C-level game and they still never really looked like they were in danger of losing. Tampa Bay has an embarrassment of riches offensively; In fact, you could argue that they're almost like the Steph Curry-Kevin Durant-Klay Thompson Warriors of the NFL. Later, Jason closes the show with an extended NFL and College Football edition of The Best Bet!
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Fire with Jason McIntire. What is up, Straight Fire, Fam,
It's me Jason McIntire, Straight Fire. Pour Fry Day, September tenth.
What a game last night? Oh my goodness, Tampa Bay
survives against Dallas thirty one nine. Just a phenomenal start
(02:10):
to the NFL season. When they released the TV rating today,
it's gonna be astronomical. I mean, the game was first
outrageously good, and second it went down to the wire. Uh.
Tom Brady delivers on the final drive. Ryan suck Up
HiT's the game winner. Obviously, if Dallas is kicker had
made an extra point and one of the two field
goals he missed, uh, Cowboys would have got the win.
(02:31):
Just an awesome start to the NFL season. I gotta say,
I know you don't care about fantasy, but my son,
first time playing fantasy had a Marie Cooper and Amari
Cooper was like projected for ten points. A Marie Cooper
went absolutely bananas against the Bucks. And listen, this is
the story. Like the Cowboys passing game was ridiculous. Michael
Gallup did get hurt. You gonna have to file that
(02:51):
one away. You look at the targets Cooper sixteen targets,
Ceedee Lamp fifteen. All they did was throw the ball.
The overarching obvious point here is Dallas I thought played
about as well as you can possibly play against the
defending Super Bowl chance who you know, supposed to be
(03:13):
in the mix to go undefeated, and they lose by two.
Just consider this Dallas won the turnover battle four to one.
Tampa had four turnovers. Even even if you want to
dismiss the hail Mary at the end of the half,
fine three turnovers. Tampa Bay penalties eleven for a hundred
and six. Dallas had more yards, They were first downs,
they were better on third down. Folks. Dallas played about
(03:35):
as good as possible and they still lost the game.
My my overall takeaway from this is Tampa did not
look particularly sharp, still scored thirty one points, still won
the game. Brady delivered late. I just don't see how
you can have any real I know people are gonna
be reaching for, like, you know, to cut through today
first Friday after the season open, and people are gonna
(03:58):
have wane to have all these scorching hide takes. The
bottom line is, like Dallas played a pretty damn smart game.
I love the game play. Kelen Moore was in his
bag early. I mean Dak Prescott getting rid of the
ball quickly. Uh sure he made he couldn't really throw
the ball down field. A couple of mistakes going anything
beyond yards, But this is the first time he's throwing
(04:19):
a football in a real, live game at live action
since what last October he played no preseason games. You
look pretty damn good forty two or fifty eight now,
you know, I'm sure there's some cynical fan Cowboys fans
out there. Why is he throwing times? Well, you can't
run the ball against his defense. Uh, you saw that
it was a fool's errand like they could not get
(04:39):
Zeke on track. They decided early. Uh, let's just abandon that.
They brought it back a little in the second half
to slow things down when the Dallas defense just kept
getting gashed. And listen, you could easily argue Tampa should
have had forty five points. Godwin dropping a touchdown pass
over the shoulder in the fourth quarter, Godwin fumbling at
the two yard line. U um, you know. And it's
(05:01):
weird because I thought Brady looked really good. And folks
you can say, oh, he's forty four. Is gonna fall
off a cliff. Listen, since I've been on TV out
here at one, all anybody has said is, well, Brady's
getting old. Father time never loses. This is like clockwork.
Every August now four five straight August and Brady starts
(05:24):
thirty two or fifty three S T D. S he
did have the two picks, one, by the way was
I believe one was off the hands of four Nett.
The four turnovers were none attributed to Brady. Okay, you
had the fumble by Ronald Jones poked out, great poke
job by DeMarcus Lawrence. Then you had the screen pass
to Leonard four Nette. I think he just went off
(05:45):
his hands. You gotta catch that. Then you had the
hail Mary, which you know, whatever, it's a hail Mary.
And then you had Godwin fumbling at the two. So
I don't want to hear this Old Brady wasn't very
sharp like Brady was really good. And that back shoulder
throw to Godwin on the final drive to set up
the field goal. Money, guys, you want to go ahead
and look at this Tom Brady schedule coming up. They
(06:06):
got the Falcons at home next week, they get a
trip to the Rams, which is gonna be a national
TV game, and that they were supposed to be one
point underdogs in that one. That's the only game all
season they're supposed to be underdogs. And then the Patriots
on Sunday Night Football if Tampa starts four and oh,
this undefeated narrative, this tom Brady m v P forty four.
(06:28):
All that goes into overdrive because after that, folks, it
eases a big time and for the Bucks to steal
that way. We had t a on yesterday. I hope
you guys listening to that. A lot of good gambling nuggets.
He liked Dallas getting the points. I said the over
both easily cashed. UM, although I guess you could argue
Godwin fumbling at the two UM would have put Tampa
(06:49):
up nine or ten if they want for two. UM,
Dallas could have still come in the back door. They
probably would have gone prevent defense. But it's just great
to have football back. The game was tremendous. Collins Worth, Now,
Michael's I actually listened to more than I normally do. UM.
Usually I just got the game on Mutant doing ten things.
But it's the first game of the season. UM. If
(07:09):
you're a Dallas fan, the one big concern is, oh
my gosh, Antonio Brown torched us. Oh my gosh, We're
supposed to have these great linebackers, and Gronk just eight
all day over the middle of the field. I mean,
Michael Parsons was just getting I mean he got put
in a spin cycle on coverage. The's a funny clip
floating around on Twitter of Michael Parsons basically doing like
(07:29):
a spinner row, just having no idea weight. Are they
running it? H I gotta be defending this guy. Wait,
he's not there. I gotta go here. Michael Parson's look
lost at times. Vander esh uh, it was just pedestrian.
I don't know if they said Jalen Smith's name all
night um. And then, of course the real interesting piece
of this is I drafted Tony Pollard, I think at
all my fantasy leagues because Zeke has been trending downward
(07:52):
for three years now, and Ezekiel Elliott eleven Carrey's thirty
three yards, okay, Tony Pollard four catches, twenty nine yards.
Zeke Elliott two catches six yards. Tony Pollard didn't quite
have as many touches as Zeke, but you can see
it's way closer than it used to be. The days
(08:14):
of Zeke being carry back are done. It's just not
happening anymore. And frankly, Dallas looked better in the up tempo.
That's the only way you can hang with this juggernaut
that is Tampa. So overall, listen, Dallas did just as
about as played as well as you could. I don't
want to say they owned the stat sheet, but if
you look at the numbers, like they should have won
(08:35):
that game, what really hurt them is one for four
in the red zone. I didn't love the play calling
Kellen Moore had. I think on first down he had
Dak do like, um a keeper. I'm like, dude, he's
coming off a gruesome leg injury. You're doing a keeper
in the red zone. And then on third down they
pitched it to Zeke the tight end whift on the
block I think it was Schultz maybe, and Zeke got
(08:56):
wrapped up. You know, red zone leaves something to be desired.
They don't really have a he'd end in the red zone.
Um ceedee. Lamb obviously is a is a nice weapon
out of the slot. He did have a case of
the drop seas cost him and uh an interception that
was not really Dack's fault on the replay. But overall,
um tremendous game. And and I'll be honest, like Dallas
(09:16):
going toe to toe with the defending Super Bowl champs
who returned all twenty two starters. Dak not playing in
the preseason, missing your best offensive lineman and Zach Zack Morton.
That's a pretty damn good performance by by the Dallas Cowboys,
Rob G. You had to be impressed. I don't know
if impressed is the word I would use to describe
that performance. I thought that, um number one. I thought
(09:38):
they blew it at the end. You know, I thought
that they played, like you said, about as well as
they possibly could. And then as soon as you saw
that Tampa Bay had a minute left and all they
needed was a field goal, you know, it was over. Yeah,
Tom Brady, their secondaries terrible, and I know you pointed
out the red zone one for four being a big thing,
and that's true, but they also gave up four hundred
(10:01):
and thirty yards in just twenty five minutes of defensive possession.
I mean, Tampa Bay could have hung up fifty were
it not for and whatever reason Stone had Leonard four
Nette screen pass. You know. I mean Tampa Bay had
eleven turnover E was give me eleven penalties, four turnovers.
(10:22):
They were shooting themselves in the foot all game, and
I never really felt like they weren't in control because
when they had the ball, they could do pretty much
whatever they wanted to Dallas. The Cowboys look like they
are going to be that team, just like my Raiders
last year. In fantasy football, you're gonna be very excited
(10:42):
because they're your team is going to score a lot
of points. Whether it's Dak Prescott throwing it all around
or Zeke. You know, one of these games is probably
gonna get unlocked and run for a buck twenty five
and two touchdowns. You're gonna be really happy with them.
And then they're gonna go against them and on their
defense and the other team's gonna light them up to
That's exactly what's going to happen throughout the season. So
in fantasy football, if it's a Dallas Cowboys game, you're
(11:04):
gonna be excited because wuld be a lot of points scored.
If it's real football, you're gonna be wildly disappointed because
they are a mediocre five ish team. That's harsh. Well
wait a second, hold on, So Dallas third and eleven
two minutes left, Um, I'm sorry it was not third
it was third and eleven from their own thirty five
and then Dac delivers big play to Ceedee Lamb At
(11:27):
that point, didn't you think, whoa wait a minute, Dallas
could pull this off? Not really, because I didn't think
they were actually gonna score the touchdown there like they they.
I think they only had what was it like five penalties, well,
the holding penalty on Thursday, penalties penalties. But the problem
(11:49):
was that where they made the mistakes were at the
worst times, like before the half, Dak Prescott taking a
sack like that's just a dumb mistake to make you
know what I mean. M Early on in the game.
I think it might have been the second drive after
Tampa Bay had marched down and scored. Dallas is coming
right back and Ceedee Lamb has a wide open pass
(12:10):
on like second and ten, and he just drops it,
so they have to play date in their own end zone.
And then of course Tampa Bay comes and scored, touching
down right back like they they These plays feel like
they're small and insignificant in the moment until you take
a step back and look at it and you're like, oh, well,
that was a big swing right there. Well that that
was a big there isn't they make a series of
those plays every game? It feels like, well, the problem
(12:33):
is there's no room for error if the offense does
that when the defense is exactly I just looked at
looked at this rob sacks of Tom Brady. Zero tackles
for loss. Is the defensive line getting any push getting
in the backfield? Zero? Okay? Tom Brady through fifty passes,
do you want to guess how many times he was hit?
Or they registered his hits twice? That's it. He got
(12:57):
hit twice. Fifty fifty pass attempts and he got hit twice.
Like they're getting no push whatsoever. I don't know how
you remedied that. And Frankly like, I mean, a guest
dan Quinn could take some hits, but then he could
just be like, yo, GM, you got me four linebackers
in an arrow. We have like no edge rush. They're
(13:17):
leading tacklers were their cornerback and their safety and then
their rookie and then their safety slash linebacker. Um. I
mean you could you could argue if the Bucks played
a little crisper, didn't cough it up, Godwin was a
little more secure at the ball, and this is they
win this by three touchdowns? Right yeah, oh yeah. And
I'm sure that they're gonna say no. But I think
(13:38):
if you were to ask Mike McCarthy with a little
bit truth sire m, hey, do you regret not letting
Micah Parsons play more in the preseason that he might
say yes, because, like you mentioned before, they were abusing
him in the middle of the field. He looks so
lost out there with what Tampa Bay was doing. They
weren't even doing a whole lot of complay stuff, but
(14:01):
it was any play action. He's biting. Any time that
that Gronk got on his hip, it was over and
Grons not even fast anymore. But it's just like, this
kid looks so out of his element playing against real
NFL speed for the first time because they limited his
steps so much in the preseason and he didn't play
last exactly. I mean this guy, I mean like, it's
(14:23):
gonna be a steep learning carve. Now listen, if you're
if you're Dallas, there was a brief moment where you're like,
holy cow, one to know against it, we're gonna pull
this off. And then now you lose, and then you
look at the schedule and you're like, Okay, we had
to travel to Tampa. Now we go home. We got
to travel to the Chargers Justin Herbert and it's this
is where it gets scary. Nick Bosa. Is Nick Bosa
(14:45):
the one on the Chargers? No, that's I'm sorry, Joey Bosa.
Derwin James. Assuming these guys don't get hurt in Week
one against Washington and that kind of becomes a must
win because Rob g Then in week three you get
the Eagles Sunday night or maybe it's Monday night. No,
it's a day night, prime time, and you can't lose
that divisional game and go oh and three. So, I mean,
I didn't project Dallas to have a win in the opener,
(15:07):
but they were so close that it almost feels like,
damn they You don't want to say that they're really
automatically contending, But I don't know. Rob Dak looked pretty
darn good for for coming off that injury and not
playing UH any in the preseason. I thought the offense
is crisp. You're right, just the red zone meltdowns kind
of killed him. Um and any other big picture takeaways
(15:28):
from from the UH from the Cowboys loss or would
you call it? Did the Cowboys lose that or did
Tampa just win it? Because the final drive I think
Dallas lost it because Tampa Bay throughout the game was
doing everything and they their power to to lose that game.
You know, it felt like one of those rings ceremony
and actually see in the NBA where these guys are
just kind of basking in the glory and they're not
(15:49):
really locked in the way they should be. And you know,
the penalties were one thing. The the the just uncharacteristic
turnovers with the the way that they happened, it was like, oh,
it was a misread and miscommunication. It was just a
dumb you know, Leonard Fournett bounced right off his hands.
I mean Ronald Jones not having two hands on football
when he's running through a pilot. These are fundamental mistakes
(16:10):
that they were making. And Dak Prescott looked great, their
offense looked like they couldn't be stopped. And even still
as much as like I felt like Tampa was always
going to win. When the other team is playing that
poorly and making those kinds of mistakes, it's up to
you to just not screw it up on yourselves. And
(16:31):
the one for four on the FRED zone is what
what did you in? And then the untimely you know,
sac or penalty is just I feel like Dallas should
have won that game. They just didn't. I'll close with this,
um and I have nothing against him, but Tom Brady
is not slowing down at forty four. But I just
(16:52):
I just saw no regression at all. There's no sign
of it none. Are they the team that would expose
any kind of his flaws Dallas? Well, I mean that's
the thing. It's a it's a very easy schedule for him.
Next week, Let's see Aaron Donald what he can I'm sorry,
in two weeks, Aaron Donald. Next week it's the Falcons,
which is another pushover defense that he know he's just
(17:12):
gonna dominate. Um, but if you can't get a push
and that Buck's offensive line, remember they were dominant last year,
dominant in the playoffs. I mean, Tristan Worths incredible rookie campaign.
Like if you can't get to him, he's just gonna
pick you apart. The weapons like Mike Evans didn't. Did
Mike Evans do anything in that game? No total, total
non factor. He's like one of the ten best receivers
(17:33):
the league. Yeah, Mike Evans said, six targets, three catches,
twenty four yards. I mean basically if Antonio Brown can
play at that level, like just dusting cornerbacks, Um, Godwin Gronk,
I mean O J. Howard, d I'm seeing he didn't
even play. And then if you notice did play, I
think you played six naps out out there. That O J.
(17:56):
Howard fully healthy played as many snaps as Ronald Jones
who got pulled after a fumble. Yeah, I know I was,
but my son was facing Nancy he was so excited. Um,
that's interesting that O. J. Howard only played six sapps.
I thought they would like hold on to Gronk for
later in the season, so he's primed for the playoffs. Um,
I don't know. Maybe this was just like a big
game against a good team then and O. J. Howard
(18:18):
will eat next week or they'll rotate it. But this
team has just too many weapons. It's like, you know,
I don't know this. I don't know if there's a
great analogy. It just came to me, but they're kind
of Golden State Warriors ish where it's like, oh, well,
Clay could go for forty tonight, Curry probably will get thirty. Um,
Katie might drop fifty on you. And it's just like
(18:38):
Draymond Green's gonna have a triple double like they were
so loaded. When Brady drops back, he's got an embarrassment
of riches. I mean, Antonio Brown was practically out of
the league. Was he not two years ago with your Raiders?
Or was that last year? I've I've already it was.
It wasn't. It wasn't because he couldn't play, That's no, no,
I know. But he was such a he was such
(19:00):
a jerk. Um re Membory. You had all those lawsuits
and sports illustrator wrote a bunch of stuff like he
was like feuding with the people who moved him and
he didn't want to pay them, and he baby Mama
drama like Antonio Brown's out thirty three years old, and
I don't know. Did he look like the best receiver
on the Bucks. I kind of thought he did, I mean,
(19:20):
look better than Evan's God. I think if if he
knew the playbook last season, he would have been the
best receiver on the Bucks. Antonio Brown is a minster um.
I have one thing to say about the Bucks. I don't.
I don't want to sound like a hater. I'm not
trying to be negative, but let me just say that
if Tom Brady has to throw the ball fifty times
a game, they are not going to be a super
Bowl team. That's not his game anymore. He's very good
(19:42):
on the play action. He's very good when he can
turn his back to the defense and then whip his
head around and get you for that fifteen yard across
the middle. But it's just that this Cowboys defense is
so horrible that you didn't really affect. I just I
wonder how many offenses like Dallas can hang with the Buccaneers.
It's gonna be tough like you were the once. If
if Tampa gets up two scores on you or three scores,
(20:04):
then it's just say good night. It's gonna be forour net.
It's gonna be Jones and their offensive line is awesome.
I mean, this team is. They did not even They
played like a C game tonight. Would you say that
sounds right? And they won. That's a little scary for
the rest of the leagu All right, let's get to
our best bets NFL and college football for the weekend. Look,
(20:25):
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The only thing better than sitting on your couch watching
the game. He's making money while you do it. Here's
your best bet. All right, it's time to get to picks.
(22:42):
Week one in the NFL got off to a great
start with the easy, easy winner on the over fifty
one and a half Dallas Tampa. We talked about it
yesterday's podcast. I mean, you know, folks, this went over
fifty one and a half. Late third quarter it was cake. Uh,
those are those feel good let's feel really really good
when they sail over no sweat fourth quarter. You don't
(23:04):
have to worry about anything. You just move on. You
can help put the kids to bed and do all
that fun stuff that dads do hashtag dad life. All right,
I just want to disclaimer on week one. Guys. Listen,
it's easy to think that you love so many games
on the card and you want to hammer the board.
You want to play like twelve bets like and I've
kind of fallen into that trap. I have written down one, six, seven, eight,
(23:29):
eight bets, sides are totals. I have big money line parlay,
and I have a teaser and that doesn't include the
tickets I got in Vegas a little more money um
on several games. I don't recommend that, you know, we
I've been doing this a little longer than than some
of you folks, so I have a little bit of
(23:51):
a different bank roll situation, and um, I'm gonna give
you my picks, um, but I'm just when you get
the number matters significantly. For instance, I got Denver minus
two and a half earlier this week. Now, as we
get closer to game time. You can't find the two
and a half. It's three everywhere? Do I like Denver
(24:14):
on the road favorite by three with Teddy Bridgewater and
Vic Fongio, Like that's insane. If it dips back down
to two and a half, is it worth it? Is
it worth it to pay some extra juice? I don't
like to pay the extra juice. If you see a
two and a half, I would jump on Denver. I
think they win this game out right. It feels like
(24:34):
I get the Denver defense, I got the Denver kicker.
I we gave you the Teddy Bridgewater. Um what numbers?
I think he's twenty one in three against the spread
on the road as the starting quarterback. Like that's what
he does. He doesn't make mistakes. He keeps it clean
and close. But again, we're talking about the Denver Broncos
on the road as favorites, like I would love them
(24:55):
in a dog spot, but such as life. I made
the bet Jets Carolina game we talked about with TA
yesterday over forty four and a half. Jets don't have
anything go cooking on defense. I know they could probably
get some pressure with the defensive line, but their linebackers
are gonna get murdered in space by McCaffrey and um,
their secondary is gonna get torched by Robbie Anderson and
(25:16):
that gang first. The thirty probably wins in and I
know that sounds high given a low total of forty
four and a half, But the Jets are gonna come
out throwing floor with the play action like this is
a lot of stuff Wilson's done dating back to college. Um,
without question, they're gonna move the football on this Carolina
defense like you look at like Dante Jackson, good cornerback
(25:37):
j C. Horne, rookie UM. But the linebackers definitely don't
scare the Jets. Can they get to the second level?
I don't know, but I think we're gonna We're gonna
be surprised. But what the Jets have offensively, this is
not Adam Gays and Sam Donald last year. It feels
to me like thirty seven probably Carolina. I would lean
towards taking the Jets and the points, but I like
(25:58):
the over forty four and a half. I'd bet this.
I've talked about this for a week now. When right
before it started, Mac Jones was name the starter. It
felt like it was going that way. I thought that
this would take up. So I got Patriots favored by three.
It has come down to two and a half. I
don't get it, guys, I just don't get it. I
don't like anything about the Dolphins this year. I've made
that abundantly clear multiple times on the pod. Patriots are
(26:21):
better defensive line. Patriots are better offensive line. Remember left
tackle for the Dolphins, Austin Jackson in COVID protocol unlikely
to play to against Belichick. Come on, I know that
the great cornerback Gilmore out for the Patriots. And I
saw another guy in the injury report that's also not great.
And I saw Aglars on there. Again, it's Bill Belichick
(26:44):
in and opener with tons of time to prepare. Okay,
look what they did last year to Fitzpatrick and the opener.
Patriots rolled him. It was easy. Now again that was
a bit of a healthy cam. But I think Matt
gives them better options. I got the Patriots favored by three.
If you get to and a a half, I like that
even better. I bet Seattle at two. I got a
(27:05):
two and a half. Listen, I don't love anybody going
on the road. Um favored by three. Uh, that's that's tough.
But we're talking about Russell Wilson, who's incredible. By the way,
his September hotness the last two years seven and one
record twenty three touchdowns, one interception. I mean, you give
me the edge, huge edge, Russell Wilson Carson Wentz. Like
(27:27):
if Carson Wentz gets a ball late and they're down
or touchdown, do you have any faith in him coming back? None? None, whatsoever. Um.
I just this Colts secondary. I think it's a little
bit overrated. People really thought the Colts defense is awesome
last year. Go look at who they faced. Um and
big big injury news for the Colts are number one
cornerback Xavier Rhodes, who was top ten according to Pro
(27:48):
Football Focused last year. Okay, he has not practiced yet
this week. If he's out, Your options to chick contend
with DK Metcalfalan the outside are rock your sin and
two thousand, twenty seventh round pick bo Pete Keys never
heard of. I think. I think Seattle. I like Seattle
a lot. I don't love it as much at three
(28:09):
as I love it at two and two and a half,
but I have, uh, I have Seattle. I also have
Atlanta favored by three. I'm feeling less confident about this
now because a lot of um just square betters, people
who I don't really respect their picks a lot. Uh,
they are also on Atlanta. This is not a huge
play for me. I think the Falcons are gonna be good.
I'm a believer in Arthur Smith. Um, listen what he
(28:31):
did with Tannehill, and now he's got Matt Ryan Ridley. Um,
we'll see how the offensive line holds up. I like
the two tight ends. I like Atlanta favorite by three.
At home. I took the over in Casey Cleveland. I
don't think we need to go into that. I I
wanted to make a case for for the Browns, but
I'm I'm gonna go ahead and pass on that. I
took the over in Minnesota Cincinnati. I know it's a
lot of overs, right, that's uh one to three overs.
(28:54):
If you include the um Buccaneers Cowboys, that's another over.
So I unders were popular last year. I know COVID
no fans, um, it's condensed. Uh lead in there was
no preseason like, I don't know it. Uh, it was
a bit risky to go so many overs here. I
(29:15):
just think there. Every game to me feels a little short.
Minnesota Cincinnati. Just look at the depth chart on the secondary.
Holy hell a, Cincinnati's top cornerback is out. Yeah, and
finally Denver favored by three. Um, again, what's I already said? Denver?
All right? The teaser that I like? And if you
remember last year in the playoffs, what was straight cash
(29:38):
homie was teasers? They were auto matic. Okay, the teaser,
that's an obvious layout. Um, Tampa Bay, San fran and
the Rams. Those three feel like locks. If you want
to tell Sam Casey not Tampa's done so if you
want to load up San Francisco and the Rams, San
franc could be in a little bit of a situation
with Detroit. Um, I expected to come out and play hard.
(29:59):
I just think Kyle Shanahan against Dan Campbell is a
complete mismatch. And remember does is San Francisco defense. I
know they got rid of Salat Salad moved on to
the Jets, but deep Damiko Ryan's is the d c uh.
He was in San Franz the last few years. He
knows Jared Goff. They know exactly what GoF does. Well. Um,
I think it's a huge edge of people just aren't
(30:20):
talking enough about like the familiarity they have. Um, we'll
we'll pave the way. And again it's Dan, Dan Campbell
and Anthony Lynn against Kyle Shanahan. Who you're taking to
that one? So that's a teaser I really like. All right,
that's a lot of picks. Um, probably too many. I
don't exactly know yet what I'm gonna do in the
four million dollar contest. I'll eventually post those on social media.
But um, uh that that one. I spend just way
(30:44):
too much time Friday night, uh Saturday morning, just pouring
over everything. I will say, I don't think I have
the stomach to take the Texans three and a half.
I just I mean, I know that you have to
take that. You have to. I cannot do that four
million dollar contest. And then tyronte Ler like lays a
massive dud, and I just I can't. Um. I'm looking
(31:05):
at well, obviously Denver, Atlanta, Uh, Seattle, Pittsburgh, um and uh,
I guess I don't like New Orleans a season, but
I have to kind of look deeper at them. So
that's that's kind of what I'm scouting. I'll be writing
up a piece for Fox Sports that goes up at
some point today, um outlining Uh some more picks that
(31:25):
you guys, you know you need more picks. Look for
your children's eyes to see the true magic of a forest.
It's a storybook world for them. You look and see
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(31:50):
Find a forest near you and start exploring and discover
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R to listen live. College football. Will buzz through through
(32:11):
these real quick. I was State Monus four, another piece
I wrote for for Fox Sports, with my they want
me picking the toughest games of the week, meaning the
best games of the week, and those are usually with
the least edges. I think Iowa State. I think they
were favored by seven on the look Ahead and I
will rolled, and iwa stay struggled, so pressto I get
a short line. I was stayed to get the better
(32:31):
team at home. I mean, I don't I'd rather three,
but I'll take the four. I mean, it's pretty clear
that the market is staying on four, not going to
three for a reason. Um. I grabbed some Toledo against
Notre Dame, getting seventeen. Notre Dame in a good letdown spot.
And by the way, they had a ton of injuries,
especially at linebacker and left tackle. A future pro um
(32:53):
irish are banged up. I can see them kind of
sleep walking through if you want to. If you don't
want to take Toledo for the full game, take the
first half. I took the over on Oregon Ohio State.
I I also betted at fourteen when it came out.
I don't love fourteen and a half just because fourteen
can be you know, listen, that could be a key number.
It's not like a three or seven. But you know,
you keep going on the list, and fourteen's big. Ohio
(33:15):
State's gonna get forty. The question is Oregon gonna get
twenty four? Fun stat I unearthed for Fox Sports Ohio
State had four plays of fifty plus yards from scrimmage
in week one four. There were teams last year that
had four for the whole season, like good teams like Albert,
or decent teams like Albert. Ohio States as just a
(33:37):
juggernaut man um I have. I took a nibble out
of Washington. That is a definite hold your nose play.
Washington Huskies were awful last week, lost to Montana. Nobody
wants to bet them at all. That's when I'll go
in on Washington in the Big House. Fun stat that
I saw pretty wild. Michigan did not beat a Power
(33:58):
five team in an arbor last year. You have to
go all the way back to twenty nineteen to find
a win in the Big House over Power five. Now
they beat Mr Michigan last week in the Big House.
They're not Power five like pretty interesting. The Michigan has
been very, very ordinary and pedestrian in recent years. So
(34:19):
I also took Utah favorite by seven. I know it's
a holy war, huge rivalry. I took it anyway, and
my final one for the second week in a row. Again,
this is a Hey, I'm on South Alabama. J You
want to tell me special from a friend. I'm taking
South Alabama. UM, tell me if you want so. That's
a lot of NFL picks, guys, I know you just
(34:40):
come here for the picks. Everybody wants to fast forward
to the end. The process is what leads today. It's
like I tell my kids, like, the more you practice anything,
whether it's the flute, whether it's piano. UM, that's how
you're gonna get better. And if you enhance your practice routine,
your results will eventually show up. My process has been
(35:01):
getting better and better in gambling. I'm hopeful that this
is a monster year for me and for you guys.
All right, everybody, have a great weekend. We'll talk to
you Monday. Valentine's Day is almost here, and you know
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(35:47):
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See website for more details. Look for your children's eyes
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Find a forest near you and start exploring it. Discover
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States Forest Service and the AD Council. This is Straight
(01:50):
Fire with Jason McIntire. What is up, Straight Fire, Fam,
It's me Jason McIntire, Straight Fire. Pour Fry Day, September tenth.
What a game last night? Oh my goodness, Tampa Bay
survives against Dallas thirty one nine. Just a phenomenal start
(02:10):
to the NFL season. When they released the TV rating today,
it's gonna be astronomical. I mean, the game was first
outrageously good, and second it went down to the wire. Uh.
Tom Brady delivers on the final drive. Ryan suck Up
HiT's the game winner. Obviously, if Dallas is kicker had
made an extra point and one of the two field
goals he missed, uh, Cowboys would have got the win.
(02:31):
Just an awesome start to the NFL season. I gotta say,
I know you don't care about fantasy, but my son,
first time playing fantasy had a Marie Cooper and Amari
Cooper was like projected for ten points. A Marie Cooper
went absolutely bananas against the Bucks. And listen, this is
the story. Like the Cowboys passing game was ridiculous. Michael
Gallup did get hurt. You gonna have to file that
(02:51):
one away. You look at the targets Cooper sixteen targets,
Ceedee Lamp fifteen. All they did was throw the ball.
The overarching obvious point here is Dallas I thought played
about as well as you can possibly play against the
defending Super Bowl chance who you know, supposed to be
(03:13):
in the mix to go undefeated, and they lose by two.
Just consider this Dallas won the turnover battle four to one.
Tampa had four turnovers. Even even if you want to
dismiss the hail Mary at the end of the half,
fine three turnovers. Tampa Bay penalties eleven for a hundred
and six. Dallas had more yards, They were first downs,
they were better on third down. Folks. Dallas played about
(03:35):
as good as possible and they still lost the game.
My my overall takeaway from this is Tampa did not
look particularly sharp, still scored thirty one points, still won
the game. Brady delivered late. I just don't see how
you can have any real I know people are gonna
be reaching for, like, you know, to cut through today
first Friday after the season open, and people are gonna
(03:58):
have wane to have all these scorching hide takes. The
bottom line is, like Dallas played a pretty damn smart game.
I love the game play. Kelen Moore was in his
bag early. I mean Dak Prescott getting rid of the
ball quickly. Uh sure he made he couldn't really throw
the ball down field. A couple of mistakes going anything
beyond yards, But this is the first time he's throwing
(04:19):
a football in a real, live game at live action
since what last October he played no preseason games. You
look pretty damn good forty two or fifty eight now,
you know, I'm sure there's some cynical fan Cowboys fans
out there. Why is he throwing times? Well, you can't
run the ball against his defense. Uh, you saw that
it was a fool's errand like they could not get
(04:39):
Zeke on track. They decided early. Uh, let's just abandon that.
They brought it back a little in the second half
to slow things down when the Dallas defense just kept
getting gashed. And listen, you could easily argue Tampa should
have had forty five points. Godwin dropping a touchdown pass
over the shoulder in the fourth quarter, Godwin fumbling at
the two yard line. U um, you know. And it's
(05:01):
weird because I thought Brady looked really good. And folks
you can say, oh, he's forty four. Is gonna fall
off a cliff. Listen, since I've been on TV out
here at one, all anybody has said is, well, Brady's
getting old. Father time never loses. This is like clockwork.
Every August now four five straight August and Brady starts
(05:24):
thirty two or fifty three S T D. S he
did have the two picks, one, by the way was
I believe one was off the hands of four Nett.
The four turnovers were none attributed to Brady. Okay, you
had the fumble by Ronald Jones poked out, great poke
job by DeMarcus Lawrence. Then you had the screen pass
to Leonard four Nette. I think he just went off
(05:45):
his hands. You gotta catch that. Then you had the
hail Mary, which you know, whatever, it's a hail Mary.
And then you had Godwin fumbling at the two. So
I don't want to hear this Old Brady wasn't very
sharp like Brady was really good. And that back shoulder
throw to Godwin on the final drive to set up
the field goal. Money, guys, you want to go ahead
and look at this Tom Brady schedule coming up. They
(06:06):
got the Falcons at home next week, they get a
trip to the Rams, which is gonna be a national
TV game, and that they were supposed to be one
point underdogs in that one. That's the only game all
season they're supposed to be underdogs. And then the Patriots
on Sunday Night Football if Tampa starts four and oh,
this undefeated narrative, this tom Brady m v P forty four.
(06:28):
All that goes into overdrive because after that, folks, it
eases a big time and for the Bucks to steal
that way. We had t a on yesterday. I hope
you guys listening to that. A lot of good gambling nuggets.
He liked Dallas getting the points. I said the over
both easily cashed. UM, although I guess you could argue
Godwin fumbling at the two UM would have put Tampa
(06:49):
up nine or ten if they want for two. UM,
Dallas could have still come in the back door. They
probably would have gone prevent defense. But it's just great
to have football back. The game was tremendous. Collins Worth, Now,
Michael's I actually listened to more than I normally do. UM.
Usually I just got the game on Mutant doing ten things.
But it's the first game of the season. UM. If
(07:09):
you're a Dallas fan, the one big concern is, oh
my gosh, Antonio Brown torched us. Oh my gosh, We're
supposed to have these great linebackers, and Gronk just eight
all day over the middle of the field. I mean,
Michael Parsons was just getting I mean he got put
in a spin cycle on coverage. The's a funny clip
floating around on Twitter of Michael Parsons basically doing like
(07:29):
a spinner row, just having no idea weight. Are they
running it? H I gotta be defending this guy. Wait,
he's not there. I gotta go here. Michael Parson's look
lost at times. Vander esh uh, it was just pedestrian.
I don't know if they said Jalen Smith's name all
night um. And then, of course the real interesting piece
of this is I drafted Tony Pollard, I think at
all my fantasy leagues because Zeke has been trending downward
(07:52):
for three years now, and Ezekiel Elliott eleven Carrey's thirty
three yards, okay, Tony Pollard four catches, twenty nine yards.
Zeke Elliott two catches six yards. Tony Pollard didn't quite
have as many touches as Zeke, but you can see
it's way closer than it used to be. The days
(08:14):
of Zeke being carry back are done. It's just not
happening anymore. And frankly, Dallas looked better in the up tempo.
That's the only way you can hang with this juggernaut
that is Tampa. So overall, listen, Dallas did just as
about as played as well as you could. I don't
want to say they owned the stat sheet, but if
you look at the numbers, like they should have won
(08:35):
that game, what really hurt them is one for four
in the red zone. I didn't love the play calling
Kellen Moore had. I think on first down he had
Dak do like, um a keeper. I'm like, dude, he's
coming off a gruesome leg injury. You're doing a keeper
in the red zone. And then on third down they
pitched it to Zeke the tight end whift on the
block I think it was Schultz maybe, and Zeke got
(08:56):
wrapped up. You know, red zone leaves something to be desired.
They don't really have a he'd end in the red zone.
Um ceedee. Lamb obviously is a is a nice weapon
out of the slot. He did have a case of
the drop seas cost him and uh an interception that
was not really Dack's fault on the replay. But overall,
um tremendous game. And and I'll be honest, like Dallas
(09:16):
going toe to toe with the defending Super Bowl champs
who returned all twenty two starters. Dak not playing in
the preseason, missing your best offensive lineman and Zach Zack Morton.
That's a pretty damn good performance by by the Dallas Cowboys,
Rob G. You had to be impressed. I don't know
if impressed is the word I would use to describe
that performance. I thought that, um number one. I thought
(09:38):
they blew it at the end. You know, I thought
that they played, like you said, about as well as
they possibly could. And then as soon as you saw
that Tampa Bay had a minute left and all they
needed was a field goal, you know, it was over. Yeah,
Tom Brady, their secondaries terrible, and I know you pointed
out the red zone one for four being a big thing,
and that's true, but they also gave up four hundred
(10:01):
and thirty yards in just twenty five minutes of defensive possession.
I mean, Tampa Bay could have hung up fifty were
it not for and whatever reason Stone had Leonard four
Nette screen pass. You know. I mean Tampa Bay had
eleven turnover E was give me eleven penalties, four turnovers.
(10:22):
They were shooting themselves in the foot all game, and
I never really felt like they weren't in control because
when they had the ball, they could do pretty much
whatever they wanted to Dallas. The Cowboys look like they
are going to be that team, just like my Raiders
last year. In fantasy football, you're gonna be very excited
(10:42):
because they're your team is going to score a lot
of points. Whether it's Dak Prescott throwing it all around
or Zeke. You know, one of these games is probably
gonna get unlocked and run for a buck twenty five
and two touchdowns. You're gonna be really happy with them.
And then they're gonna go against them and on their
defense and the other team's gonna light them up to
That's exactly what's going to happen throughout the season. So
in fantasy football, if it's a Dallas Cowboys game, you're
(11:04):
gonna be excited because wuld be a lot of points scored.
If it's real football, you're gonna be wildly disappointed because
they are a mediocre five ish team. That's harsh. Well
wait a second, hold on, So Dallas third and eleven
two minutes left, Um, I'm sorry it was not third
it was third and eleven from their own thirty five
and then Dac delivers big play to Ceedee Lamb At
(11:27):
that point, didn't you think, whoa wait a minute, Dallas
could pull this off? Not really, because I didn't think
they were actually gonna score the touchdown there like they they.
I think they only had what was it like five penalties, well,
the holding penalty on Thursday, penalties penalties. But the problem
(11:49):
was that where they made the mistakes were at the
worst times, like before the half, Dak Prescott taking a
sack like that's just a dumb mistake to make you
know what I mean. M Early on in the game.
I think it might have been the second drive after
Tampa Bay had marched down and scored. Dallas is coming
right back and Ceedee Lamb has a wide open pass
(12:10):
on like second and ten, and he just drops it,
so they have to play date in their own end zone.
And then of course Tampa Bay comes and scored, touching
down right back like they they These plays feel like
they're small and insignificant in the moment until you take
a step back and look at it and you're like, oh, well,
that was a big swing right there. Well that that
was a big there isn't they make a series of
those plays every game? It feels like, well, the problem
(12:33):
is there's no room for error if the offense does
that when the defense is exactly I just looked at
looked at this rob sacks of Tom Brady. Zero tackles
for loss. Is the defensive line getting any push getting
in the backfield? Zero? Okay? Tom Brady through fifty passes,
do you want to guess how many times he was hit?
Or they registered his hits twice? That's it. He got
(12:57):
hit twice. Fifty fifty pass attempts and he got hit twice.
Like they're getting no push whatsoever. I don't know how
you remedied that. And Frankly like, I mean, a guest
dan Quinn could take some hits, but then he could
just be like, yo, GM, you got me four linebackers
in an arrow. We have like no edge rush. They're
(13:17):
leading tacklers were their cornerback and their safety and then
their rookie and then their safety slash linebacker. Um. I
mean you could you could argue if the Bucks played
a little crisper, didn't cough it up, Godwin was a
little more secure at the ball, and this is they
win this by three touchdowns? Right yeah, oh yeah. And
I'm sure that they're gonna say no. But I think
(13:38):
if you were to ask Mike McCarthy with a little
bit truth sire m, hey, do you regret not letting
Micah Parsons play more in the preseason that he might
say yes, because, like you mentioned before, they were abusing
him in the middle of the field. He looks so
lost out there with what Tampa Bay was doing. They
weren't even doing a whole lot of complay stuff, but
(14:01):
it was any play action. He's biting. Any time that
that Gronk got on his hip, it was over and
Grons not even fast anymore. But it's just like, this
kid looks so out of his element playing against real
NFL speed for the first time because they limited his
steps so much in the preseason and he didn't play
last exactly. I mean this guy, I mean like, it's
(14:23):
gonna be a steep learning carve. Now listen, if you're
if you're Dallas, there was a brief moment where you're like,
holy cow, one to know against it, we're gonna pull
this off. And then now you lose, and then you
look at the schedule and you're like, Okay, we had
to travel to Tampa. Now we go home. We got
to travel to the Chargers Justin Herbert and it's this
is where it gets scary. Nick Bosa. Is Nick Bosa
(14:45):
the one on the Chargers? No, that's I'm sorry, Joey Bosa.
Derwin James. Assuming these guys don't get hurt in Week
one against Washington and that kind of becomes a must
win because Rob g Then in week three you get
the Eagles Sunday night or maybe it's Monday night. No,
it's a day night, prime time, and you can't lose
that divisional game and go oh and three. So, I mean,
I didn't project Dallas to have a win in the opener,
(15:07):
but they were so close that it almost feels like,
damn they You don't want to say that they're really
automatically contending, But I don't know. Rob Dak looked pretty
darn good for for coming off that injury and not
playing UH any in the preseason. I thought the offense
is crisp. You're right, just the red zone meltdowns kind
of killed him. Um and any other big picture takeaways
(15:28):
from from the UH from the Cowboys loss or would
you call it? Did the Cowboys lose that or did
Tampa just win it? Because the final drive I think
Dallas lost it because Tampa Bay throughout the game was
doing everything and they their power to to lose that game.
You know, it felt like one of those rings ceremony
and actually see in the NBA where these guys are
just kind of basking in the glory and they're not
(15:49):
really locked in the way they should be. And you know,
the penalties were one thing. The the the just uncharacteristic
turnovers with the the way that they happened, it was like, oh,
it was a misread and miscommunication. It was just a
dumb you know, Leonard Fournett bounced right off his hands.
I mean Ronald Jones not having two hands on football
when he's running through a pilot. These are fundamental mistakes
(16:10):
that they were making. And Dak Prescott looked great, their
offense looked like they couldn't be stopped. And even still
as much as like I felt like Tampa was always
going to win. When the other team is playing that
poorly and making those kinds of mistakes, it's up to
you to just not screw it up on yourselves. And
(16:31):
the one for four on the FRED zone is what
what did you in? And then the untimely you know,
sac or penalty is just I feel like Dallas should
have won that game. They just didn't. I'll close with this,
um and I have nothing against him, but Tom Brady
is not slowing down at forty four. But I just
(16:52):
I just saw no regression at all. There's no sign
of it none. Are they the team that would expose
any kind of his flaws Dallas? Well, I mean that's
the thing. It's a it's a very easy schedule for him.
Next week, Let's see Aaron Donald what he can I'm sorry,
in two weeks, Aaron Donald. Next week it's the Falcons,
which is another pushover defense that he know he's just
(17:12):
gonna dominate. Um, but if you can't get a push
and that Buck's offensive line, remember they were dominant last year,
dominant in the playoffs. I mean, Tristan Worths incredible rookie campaign.
Like if you can't get to him, he's just gonna
pick you apart. The weapons like Mike Evans didn't. Did
Mike Evans do anything in that game? No total, total
non factor. He's like one of the ten best receivers
(17:33):
the league. Yeah, Mike Evans said, six targets, three catches,
twenty four yards. I mean basically if Antonio Brown can
play at that level, like just dusting cornerbacks, Um, Godwin Gronk,
I mean O J. Howard, d I'm seeing he didn't
even play. And then if you notice did play, I
think you played six naps out out there. That O J.
(17:56):
Howard fully healthy played as many snaps as Ronald Jones
who got pulled after a fumble. Yeah, I know I was,
but my son was facing Nancy he was so excited. Um,
that's interesting that O. J. Howard only played six sapps.
I thought they would like hold on to Gronk for
later in the season, so he's primed for the playoffs. Um,
I don't know. Maybe this was just like a big
game against a good team then and O. J. Howard
(18:18):
will eat next week or they'll rotate it. But this
team has just too many weapons. It's like, you know,
I don't know this. I don't know if there's a
great analogy. It just came to me, but they're kind
of Golden State Warriors ish where it's like, oh, well,
Clay could go for forty tonight, Curry probably will get thirty. Um,
Katie might drop fifty on you. And it's just like
(18:38):
Draymond Green's gonna have a triple double like they were
so loaded. When Brady drops back, he's got an embarrassment
of riches. I mean, Antonio Brown was practically out of
the league. Was he not two years ago with your Raiders?
Or was that last year? I've I've already it was.
It wasn't. It wasn't because he couldn't play, That's no, no,
I know. But he was such a he was such
(19:00):
a jerk. Um re Membory. You had all those lawsuits
and sports illustrator wrote a bunch of stuff like he
was like feuding with the people who moved him and
he didn't want to pay them, and he baby Mama
drama like Antonio Brown's out thirty three years old, and
I don't know. Did he look like the best receiver
on the Bucks. I kind of thought he did, I mean,
(19:20):
look better than Evan's God. I think if if he
knew the playbook last season, he would have been the
best receiver on the Bucks. Antonio Brown is a minster um.
I have one thing to say about the Bucks. I don't.
I don't want to sound like a hater. I'm not
trying to be negative, but let me just say that
if Tom Brady has to throw the ball fifty times
a game, they are not going to be a super
Bowl team. That's not his game anymore. He's very good
(19:42):
on the play action. He's very good when he can
turn his back to the defense and then whip his
head around and get you for that fifteen yard across
the middle. But it's just that this Cowboys defense is
so horrible that you didn't really affect. I just I
wonder how many offenses like Dallas can hang with the Buccaneers.
It's gonna be tough like you were the once. If
if Tampa gets up two scores on you or three scores,
(20:04):
then it's just say good night. It's gonna be forour net.
It's gonna be Jones and their offensive line is awesome.
I mean, this team is. They did not even They
played like a C game tonight. Would you say that
sounds right? And they won. That's a little scary for
the rest of the leagu All right, let's get to
our best bets NFL and college football for the weekend. Look,
(20:25):
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The only thing better than sitting on your couch watching
the game. He's making money while you do it. Here's
your best bet. All right, it's time to get to picks.
(22:42):
Week one in the NFL got off to a great
start with the easy, easy winner on the over fifty
one and a half Dallas Tampa. We talked about it
yesterday's podcast. I mean, you know, folks, this went over
fifty one and a half. Late third quarter it was cake. Uh,
those are those feel good let's feel really really good
when they sail over no sweat fourth quarter. You don't
(23:04):
have to worry about anything. You just move on. You
can help put the kids to bed and do all
that fun stuff that dads do hashtag dad life. All right,
I just want to disclaimer on week one. Guys. Listen,
it's easy to think that you love so many games
on the card and you want to hammer the board.
You want to play like twelve bets like and I've
kind of fallen into that trap. I have written down one, six, seven, eight,
(23:29):
eight bets, sides are totals. I have big money line parlay,
and I have a teaser and that doesn't include the
tickets I got in Vegas a little more money um
on several games. I don't recommend that, you know, we
I've been doing this a little longer than than some
of you folks, so I have a little bit of
(23:51):
a different bank roll situation, and um, I'm gonna give
you my picks, um, but I'm just when you get
the number matters significantly. For instance, I got Denver minus
two and a half earlier this week. Now, as we
get closer to game time. You can't find the two
and a half. It's three everywhere? Do I like Denver
(24:14):
on the road favorite by three with Teddy Bridgewater and
Vic Fongio, Like that's insane. If it dips back down
to two and a half, is it worth it? Is
it worth it to pay some extra juice? I don't
like to pay the extra juice. If you see a
two and a half, I would jump on Denver. I
think they win this game out right. It feels like
(24:34):
I get the Denver defense, I got the Denver kicker.
I we gave you the Teddy Bridgewater. Um what numbers?
I think he's twenty one in three against the spread
on the road as the starting quarterback. Like that's what
he does. He doesn't make mistakes. He keeps it clean
and close. But again, we're talking about the Denver Broncos
on the road as favorites, like I would love them
(24:55):
in a dog spot, but such as life. I made
the bet Jets Carolina game we talked about with TA
yesterday over forty four and a half. Jets don't have
anything go cooking on defense. I know they could probably
get some pressure with the defensive line, but their linebackers
are gonna get murdered in space by McCaffrey and um,
their secondary is gonna get torched by Robbie Anderson and
(25:16):
that gang first. The thirty probably wins in and I
know that sounds high given a low total of forty
four and a half, But the Jets are gonna come
out throwing floor with the play action like this is
a lot of stuff Wilson's done dating back to college. Um,
without question, they're gonna move the football on this Carolina
defense like you look at like Dante Jackson, good cornerback
(25:37):
j C. Horne, rookie UM. But the linebackers definitely don't
scare the Jets. Can they get to the second level?
I don't know, but I think we're gonna We're gonna
be surprised. But what the Jets have offensively, this is
not Adam Gays and Sam Donald last year. It feels
to me like thirty seven probably Carolina. I would lean
towards taking the Jets and the points, but I like
(25:58):
the over forty four and a half. I'd bet this.
I've talked about this for a week now. When right
before it started, Mac Jones was name the starter. It
felt like it was going that way. I thought that
this would take up. So I got Patriots favored by three.
It has come down to two and a half. I
don't get it, guys, I just don't get it. I
don't like anything about the Dolphins this year. I've made
that abundantly clear multiple times on the pod. Patriots are
(26:21):
better defensive line. Patriots are better offensive line. Remember left
tackle for the Dolphins, Austin Jackson in COVID protocol unlikely
to play to against Belichick. Come on, I know that
the great cornerback Gilmore out for the Patriots. And I
saw another guy in the injury report that's also not great.
And I saw Aglars on there. Again, it's Bill Belichick
(26:44):
in and opener with tons of time to prepare. Okay,
look what they did last year to Fitzpatrick and the opener.
Patriots rolled him. It was easy. Now again that was
a bit of a healthy cam. But I think Matt
gives them better options. I got the Patriots favored by three.
If you get to and a a half, I like that
even better. I bet Seattle at two. I got a
(27:05):
two and a half. Listen, I don't love anybody going
on the road. Um favored by three. Uh, that's that's tough.
But we're talking about Russell Wilson, who's incredible. By the way,
his September hotness the last two years seven and one
record twenty three touchdowns, one interception. I mean, you give
me the edge, huge edge, Russell Wilson Carson Wentz. Like
(27:27):
if Carson Wentz gets a ball late and they're down
or touchdown, do you have any faith in him coming back? None? None, whatsoever. Um.
I just this Colts secondary. I think it's a little
bit overrated. People really thought the Colts defense is awesome
last year. Go look at who they faced. Um and
big big injury news for the Colts are number one
cornerback Xavier Rhodes, who was top ten according to Pro
(27:48):
Football Focused last year. Okay, he has not practiced yet
this week. If he's out, Your options to chick contend
with DK Metcalfalan the outside are rock your sin and
two thousand, twenty seventh round pick bo Pete Keys never
heard of. I think. I think Seattle. I like Seattle
a lot. I don't love it as much at three
(28:09):
as I love it at two and two and a half,
but I have, uh, I have Seattle. I also have
Atlanta favored by three. I'm feeling less confident about this
now because a lot of um just square betters, people
who I don't really respect their picks a lot. Uh,
they are also on Atlanta. This is not a huge
play for me. I think the Falcons are gonna be good.
I'm a believer in Arthur Smith. Um, listen what he
(28:31):
did with Tannehill, and now he's got Matt Ryan Ridley. Um,
we'll see how the offensive line holds up. I like
the two tight ends. I like Atlanta favorite by three.
At home. I took the over in Casey Cleveland. I
don't think we need to go into that. I I
wanted to make a case for for the Browns, but
I'm I'm gonna go ahead and pass on that. I
took the over in Minnesota Cincinnati. I know it's a
lot of overs, right, that's uh one to three overs.
(28:54):
If you include the um Buccaneers Cowboys, that's another over.
So I unders were popular last year. I know COVID
no fans, um, it's condensed. Uh lead in there was
no preseason like, I don't know it. Uh, it was
a bit risky to go so many overs here. I
(29:15):
just think there. Every game to me feels a little short.
Minnesota Cincinnati. Just look at the depth chart on the secondary.
Holy hell a, Cincinnati's top cornerback is out. Yeah, and
finally Denver favored by three. Um, again, what's I already said? Denver?
All right? The teaser that I like? And if you
remember last year in the playoffs, what was straight cash
(29:38):
homie was teasers? They were auto matic. Okay, the teaser,
that's an obvious layout. Um, Tampa Bay, San fran and
the Rams. Those three feel like locks. If you want
to tell Sam Casey not Tampa's done so if you
want to load up San Francisco and the Rams, San
franc could be in a little bit of a situation
with Detroit. Um, I expected to come out and play hard.
(29:59):
I just think Kyle Shanahan against Dan Campbell is a
complete mismatch. And remember does is San Francisco defense. I
know they got rid of Salat Salad moved on to
the Jets, but deep Damiko Ryan's is the d c uh.
He was in San Franz the last few years. He
knows Jared Goff. They know exactly what GoF does. Well. Um,
I think it's a huge edge of people just aren't
(30:20):
talking enough about like the familiarity they have. Um, we'll
we'll pave the way. And again it's Dan, Dan Campbell
and Anthony Lynn against Kyle Shanahan. Who you're taking to
that one? So that's a teaser I really like. All right,
that's a lot of picks. Um, probably too many. I
don't exactly know yet what I'm gonna do in the
four million dollar contest. I'll eventually post those on social media.
But um, uh that that one. I spend just way
(30:44):
too much time Friday night, uh Saturday morning, just pouring
over everything. I will say, I don't think I have
the stomach to take the Texans three and a half.
I just I mean, I know that you have to
take that. You have to. I cannot do that four
million dollar contest. And then tyronte Ler like lays a
massive dud, and I just I can't. Um. I'm looking
(31:05):
at well, obviously Denver, Atlanta, Uh, Seattle, Pittsburgh, um and uh,
I guess I don't like New Orleans a season, but
I have to kind of look deeper at them. So
that's that's kind of what I'm scouting. I'll be writing
up a piece for Fox Sports that goes up at
some point today, um outlining Uh some more picks that
(31:25):
you guys, you know you need more picks. Look for
your children's eyes to see the true magic of a forest.
It's a storybook world for them. You look and see
a tree. They see the wrinkled face of a wizard
with arms outstretched to the sky. They see treasuring pebbles.
They see a windy path that could lead to adventure,
and they see you. They're fearless. Guide. Is this fascinating world?
(31:50):
Find a forest near you and start exploring and discover
the forest dot Org brought to you by the United
States Forest Service and the ad Council. Fox Sports Radio
has the best warts talk lineup in the nation. Catch
all of our shows at Fox Sports Radio dot com
and within the I Heart Radio app. Search f s
R to listen live. College football. Will buzz through through
(32:11):
these real quick. I was State Monus four, another piece
I wrote for for Fox Sports, with my they want
me picking the toughest games of the week, meaning the
best games of the week, and those are usually with
the least edges. I think Iowa State. I think they
were favored by seven on the look Ahead and I
will rolled, and iwa stay struggled, so pressto I get
a short line. I was stayed to get the better
(32:31):
team at home. I mean, I don't I'd rather three,
but I'll take the four. I mean, it's pretty clear
that the market is staying on four, not going to
three for a reason. Um. I grabbed some Toledo against
Notre Dame, getting seventeen. Notre Dame in a good letdown spot.
And by the way, they had a ton of injuries,
especially at linebacker and left tackle. A future pro um
(32:53):
irish are banged up. I can see them kind of
sleep walking through if you want to. If you don't
want to take Toledo for the full game, take the
first half. I took the over on Oregon Ohio State.
I I also betted at fourteen when it came out.
I don't love fourteen and a half just because fourteen
can be you know, listen, that could be a key number.
It's not like a three or seven. But you know,
you keep going on the list, and fourteen's big. Ohio
(33:15):
State's gonna get forty. The question is Oregon gonna get
twenty four? Fun stat I unearthed for Fox Sports Ohio
State had four plays of fifty plus yards from scrimmage
in week one four. There were teams last year that
had four for the whole season, like good teams like Albert,
or decent teams like Albert. Ohio States as just a
(33:37):
juggernaut man um I have. I took a nibble out
of Washington. That is a definite hold your nose play.
Washington Huskies were awful last week, lost to Montana. Nobody
wants to bet them at all. That's when I'll go
in on Washington in the Big House. Fun stat that
I saw pretty wild. Michigan did not beat a Power
(33:58):
five team in an arbor last year. You have to
go all the way back to twenty nineteen to find
a win in the Big House over Power five. Now
they beat Mr Michigan last week in the Big House.
They're not Power five like pretty interesting. The Michigan has
been very, very ordinary and pedestrian in recent years. So
(34:19):
I also took Utah favorite by seven. I know it's
a holy war, huge rivalry. I took it anyway, and
my final one for the second week in a row. Again,
this is a Hey, I'm on South Alabama. J You
want to tell me special from a friend. I'm taking
South Alabama. UM, tell me if you want so. That's
a lot of NFL picks, guys, I know you just
(34:40):
come here for the picks. Everybody wants to fast forward
to the end. The process is what leads today. It's
like I tell my kids, like, the more you practice anything,
whether it's the flute, whether it's piano. UM, that's how
you're gonna get better. And if you enhance your practice routine,
your results will eventually show up. My process has been
(35:01):
getting better and better in gambling. I'm hopeful that this
is a monster year for me and for you guys.
All right, everybody, have a great weekend. We'll talk to
you Monday. Valentine's Day is almost here, and you know
what that means. It's time make her blush with fresh
blooms and gifts from pro Flowers this year. Go to
pro flowers dot com to use code crush fifteen to
get off through February fourteen on all the best blooms
(35:24):
and gifts. See website for details. Adoption of teams from
foster Care is a topic not enough people know about,
and we're here to change that. I'm April Dinuity host
of the new podcast Navigating Adoption, presented by adopt us Kids.
Each episode brings you compelling, real life adoption stories told
by the families that lived them, with commentary from experts.
Visit adopt us Kids dot org, slash podcast, or subscribe
(35:47):
to Navigating Adoption presented by adopt us Kids, brought to
you by the U. S Department of Health, that Human
Service as Administration for Children and Families, and the AD Council.
Look for your children's eyes and you will discover the
true magic of a forest. Find a forest near you
and start exploring it. Discover the Forest dot org, brought
(36:08):
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