January 13, 2018 • 40 mins
RJ Bell and Steve Cofield break down the Quarterbacks left in the NFL Playoffs and if it truly is all about the Quarterback play this deep into the playoffs. Also the guys break down the two Divisional Round Match-ups on Saturday and tell you all the betting trends. Plus RJ and Steve look at the top trending Sports Talk topics of the week from the Vegas angle!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
You're listening to Fox Sports. You heard it Friday night
here in Vegas, Dove Cofield R J. Bell, and in
the wise Guy chair, college specialist Brad Powers. I think
he's got some NFL takes tonight and we will get
to the end. We'll see if those takes are worthy
or Now it sounds like a threat already. I want
(00:22):
to set the bar. Set the bar, all right. We
started off the show with the Vegas lead. One of
the big stories we want to talk about that is
a trending in Las Vegas. And listen, quarterbacks in the
National Football League in the divisional round. It's a big
deal right now. How big a deal is it? How
much of a predictor is it if quarterbacks have lots
of experience or almost no playoff experience? Well, to me,
(00:43):
this is the story of the weekend. I'm not sure
how much it matters, but to whatever degree it does,
this is the weekend. It matters more than any I've
ever seen. Let me say that again. The disparity between
the quarterbacks in these four games is bigger than I've
(01:04):
ever seen. Let's go through the list quickly. Matt Ryan
nine starts in the playoffs. Nick Foles one, Tom Brady
thirty four starts in the playoffs, Marriotta one, Big Ben
twenty starts in the playoffs, Blake Borders one, Drew Brees
twelve starts in the playoffs, case Keenum zero. You added up.
(01:28):
They're playing each other, right, it's exactly matched up. The
experienced group seventy five playoffs starts, one thirty three touchdown
passes in the playoffs alone. The other inexperienced group three starts,
five touchdown passes. You look at the super experience group,
(01:50):
is there a guy that you're a little worried about?
Is there is there like any doubt around his experience,
how good he's been, or maybe where he is in
his career. Great question. First, I think it says something
that the three of the four experienced quarterbacks are the
ones that are favored, and in the exception being obviously
(02:12):
Drew Brees with Case Keenan favored in that game. But
we're gonna focus mostly on the Saturday games. Then Tomorrow
night ten o'clock Pacific to midnight, we'll have two hours
and we'll go deep, deep dive into the Sunday games
and obviously much more. But I look at Tom Brady
(02:32):
And listen, I put this out on Twitter and I
got people saying, yeah, but he won the super Bowl. Listen,
that was the dumb guy voice in case. Yeah, alright,
I use mine all the time, my normal voice I got.
I got. It's the guy on the phone tweeting back
or sending an email exactly a little bit. What do
(02:54):
you mean? It was like the auto lauto machine is broken.
So the dumb guy will say, yeah, but Brady won
the super Bowl. It's like, yeah, we're not saying he's bad.
What you do in Vegas is what is the expectation?
What is expected? And then and then it's how good
(03:14):
is he really? So my point is I think the
case can be made that Brady is overrated at the
end of seasons. So let's walk through this. First ten
games this year, Brady has one interception, last six games,
six interceptions. Okay, last year he only played twelve regular
(03:38):
season games. So this idea of game seventeen eighteen nineteen
being where an older quarterback drops off the most, I'm
not sure we would have seen it last year. But
even with the four less games, if you look at
the entire regular season, so twelve games, Brady had two interceptions.
(04:00):
In the three playoff games, he had three interceptions, So
it would seem somewhat of a drop off, but I
think a little bit less there because he had four
less games. But even in two thousand and fifteen, and
this is the last year, we'll look at the first
fourteen games of the season, he only had two games
with a pass rating below nine. All right, so fourteen games,
(04:21):
only two let's say below average games. Final four games
three below average games, so three out of four, two
out of fourteen. And it makes sense cofield because if
you think about it, we saw it with Peyton Manning.
Older quarterbacks get beat up as this season progresses, and
(04:42):
I think you start seeing them drop off come playoff time.
Brady is now forty. The last time he's playing games
seventeen Tomorrow Saturday. The next time or the last time
he played games seventeen, he was two years younger, because
not last year. The difference between thirty eight and forty
(05:05):
can make all the difference in the world. I'm not
saying Brady's not good. I'm saying I think the average
fan would say he's one of the three best quarterbacks,
and I'm thinking maybe he's one of the seven best quarterbacks,
which is still amazing for a forty year old. But
I think he's gonna be priced a little bit expensive,
So I'm surprised you didn't go with Matt Ryan. Colin
(05:29):
Cower heard has been calling Matt Ryan even after the
win last week. He's been doing it all season. Andy
Dalton in a Dome that that he would be the
group of experienced guys that maybe just as at cracked
up to what you know. He's a reputation wise though
the rep he's got me, he's just not that good.
I think, if anything in Atlanta has been underrated pretty
much this whole year. There's been no team that their
(05:52):
stats have been significantly better than their scoreboard more so
than Atlanta, where the wise guys have loved the Falcons,
and it's because their stats have been so good. And yeah,
I mean, I just I think maybe off last year,
perhaps a little, but I think even four or five
(06:13):
games in was Sarkis and not doing as well as
oh Ce. I just don't feel like the Falcons have
been overrated. So a lot of people around the country
are shocked. This is the first time this has ever happened.
A one against the six and the ones a dog
Atlanta's minus three going into this game. First of all,
we have to examine why is that the case? How
(06:34):
bad is Nick Foles as compared to Carson Wentz? Where
would the line have been if Wentz was in here?
So this is one let me pose because Dan Patrick's
crew asked me this this week and the question was
would the line be if Wentz was healthy? And my
take was between minus six and minus seven. Now a
(06:56):
lot of people initially are saying, oh, that seems high. Well,
the Rams against Atlanta open six and a half, so
let's agree that line went down a little. Let's also
agree Atlanta one, so let's give him a one point upgrade,
so let's call it even. Um, let's say be four
and a half if the game were replayed the Rams game? Okay,
(07:20):
But now here's the question is you got to give
the Eagles one point for having a buy So four
and a half becomes five and a half. And now
the question is how much better are the Eagles in
the Rams? I think at minimum a point so too,
maybe a little more. So. I think the six or
(07:40):
seven if it was a healthy Wentz feels rock solid.
Thoughts Brett I completely agree. Uh, six and a half
seven sounds completely farable and you look at you know that.
Also a negative impact for Atlanta is the fact that
this is our fourth World game in five weeks. To me,
that's worth a half a point. I think maybe more
because so let's talk about that fourth road game in
(08:04):
five weeks coming up. But I think two factors make
it even tougher than that. One is Atlanta has played
some high stakes, high pressure games. Now, obviously the playoffs
last week high stakes high pressure. But I'm saying they
were pretty much in quasi must win situations since what
the Cowboys game you remember that was kind of like
(08:27):
the winner of this has a great track to the playoffs,
the loser is pretty much out of it. Well, it
ended up being that way. That was like what seven
weeks ago. And not that they've won every game, but
every game has mattered. And then if the game before
the fourth game of the five is a trip all
(08:47):
the way out west and then all the way back
and then back on the road again four out of five,
I think you've got a tire team against quite frankly
a totally rested team, and Eagles team that made effort
against the Cowboys in Week seventeen, but not full effort.
So it's a team it's had one and a half
buys the Eagles, big advantage with the rest for the Eagles.
(09:10):
So this is a classic r J bel spot. You
look for market overreaction with the lines, and you believe
this is an overreaction and now the Falcons are too much,
they're over priced or two to one. But face. I
look for two things over reaction in the NFL market
and then the two for one of face. But sticking
with the NFL market, I mean, listen, John kincaide friend
(09:35):
of mine from Atlanta Radio. He asked me the night
of the Falcons game, Hey, what's the opener here? I thought,
pick them right, I And for this to get to
three as quickly as it has, and let's then kind
of close the circle here. If the line would have
been seven and the line's three, then Wentz is worth
(09:58):
ten points. That is the most valuable player in NFL history.
Aaron Rodgers is the only other player worth ten. But
think about this now, Aaron Rodgers backup is Huntley, the
backup for Whence his foes foes, even though he's underperformed
since he's been playing, is even today considered better than Hunley?
(10:22):
Does anyone disagree with that? Two points better? At least? Yeah,
at least three points? Maybe I think better for sure,
maybe at point maybe two, maybe three. Okay, So wait
a minute. If you go from Rogers to an inferior
Huntley and it's ten, and now you're going from Wentz
to a superior foes in its ten, that means Wentz
(10:43):
is the most valuable player in NFL history, more valuable
than Rogers. Who wants to make that point? Who wants
to defend that? Well, that's what By betting the Falcons
at minus three, you're saying that Wentz is the most
valuable player in NFL history. That's just slow you down.
(11:04):
Let's get an official play on this game on the
way back, and then we'll move to the Titans and
the Patriots right here straight at Vegas, Fox Sports Radio Vega.
Progressive Insurance, creators of the Name your Price tool, choose
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on start at a Vegas Steve Cofield, R J. Bell,
Brad Powers in the wise Guy's chair. We got to
pick on the way with the Eagles and the Falcons,
and of course we're gonna break down the Titans and
the Patriots were coming alive from the get go Fox
Sports Radio Studios. Fifteen minutes could save you fifteen or
(11:47):
more on car insurance. Visit Geico dot com for a
free rate quote. So we're gonna get I think a
liner alike on the Eagles. I think that's where r
J was moving towards. So I listened to a lot
of mainstream sports talk radio. I read a lot of
mainstream writers, and man, they are gaga over the Atlanta Falcons,
(12:08):
willing to lay the minus three. And you just spent
a good five minutes saying, hey, this number is an
overreaction right now. So what do you make of the
mainstream kind of all jumping in one direction saying, hey,
Falcons are gonna do this, They're gonna cover, They're gonna win.
I think there's a ton to learn from the mainstream
because you take a guy that's a former GM or
(12:28):
a former player. Quite frankly, they know more about the
NFL in the trenches when it comes to the locker
rooms than I do than anyone in Vegas does. But
what Vegas does best is we bet numbers. We don't
bet teams. There's not a team in any spot. You
(12:49):
could tell me the Tennessee Titans with Mariota out and
I've got Castle starting. Give me enough enough points, I'll
bet my biggest bet of the year. Give me thirty
five points. I'll make my biggest bet of the year.
I'm betting numbers, not teams. And most guys that aren't Vegas,
(13:09):
I mean, you listen to someone like Mike Mike Francessa, right,
obviously he knows sports like crazy, right, famous New York
guy that just retired. I heard his picks recently and
he's like, oh, yeah, the line was like three and
a half. He's like, I lay after seven. It's like,
there's never a line at three and a half that
you can lay at seven. It just they might win
(13:30):
a given game, but in the long run that the
that game at seven is not gonna win. So I
think the sense of the Falcons being the team that's
hotter right now with momentum is absolutely true. It's just
the market is over priced that. And this is I
think a great time to talk about a powerful concept.
(13:51):
If you bet Atlanta it's not obvious how you'll lose. Right,
you don't expect Matt Ryan to have a horrible game.
You don't expect Nick Foles to have a great game.
So if you lose, you're gonna have the crutch to say, man,
can you believe Ryan didn't throw you know, through three interceptions?
(14:12):
Or can you believe foes look that good after the bat? Now,
if you bet Philadelphia, it's obvious how you could lose.
Matt Ryan could have a monster day and it would
not be surprising. Nick Foles could have a horrible day
and it wouldn't be surprising. You are paying a premium
to bet the team that doesn't have an obvious way
(14:35):
to lose, and being willing to accept the fear that
comes with the obvious ways to lose. And it's not comfortable, Right,
I'm betting knowing this could be a problem. That's when
you're usually getting value. I think that nails it. I
thought Physic and he'll be back in tomorrow and we
do our ten p Pacific straight out of Vegas on
(14:56):
Saturdays in the Sundays. I thought Physicic. Throughout the year,
I was like, Wow, that was uncomfortable, Like that doesn't
seem like the right way to go, like you were
going against the grain. Some of that was because he
was just playing wrong, and I was contradicting that. Sometimes, Yeah,
he had, but you know he had a good year.
Oh he had a really good year and a lot
of and a lot of times he when you know
(15:16):
the the ebb and flow or the ebb is going
one way, he would go against that tide, no doubt.
And and Fez is, fez is Actually I'm a pretty
basic contrarian player. And and Fez is he will play
those games, but he eliminates maybe twenty percent of those
that I would play, And then he has twenty percent.
I can't even see it. Right. There's poker players that
(15:38):
are rock solid that can make two K year playing poker.
That's a great living, right, And then there's a Phil
Ivy that's gonna play exactly like that two k profit
guy nine five percent of the time, but five percent
of the time he's gonna do something totally different. And
Fezic has that next level ability in the NFL. So
(15:59):
give me a few more positive about Philly. The boy
has to mean something. You said it did, But what
does the boy mean? And for Foals, he had extra
time off, so if he didn't look great in the
last game and a half, he could be fixed right,
or at least get him to a level where you
feel comfortable. Here's another way to think about it. I
don't know how good Foes is gonna be. If Foes
(16:20):
had played the way we expected him to, this line
would be picked. I mean this, This has been a
significant adjustment downgrade of Fos since he's been playing. I'm
not sure it's enough games to do that as drastically
as it's been done. So to me, there's two scenarios.
One is Fos is as bad as he seems. The
(16:40):
other is he's gonna play better here a combination of Hey,
those were just bad games, but there weren't enough of
them to show that's truly him. They were just some
bad games. Or he's gotten better because he's had two
weeks to focus, keep repping, and here we are a
little bit better. A or B same or better. Can't
(17:01):
be much worse. Let's be honest, there is if he's
the same. I think three is right. If you told me,
if God came down and said, Fols is gonna play
like he did against the Raiders on Christmas Eve, I'd
be like, Okay, at three, it's a coin flip. I'm
not in sure, I said, But I wouldn't run the
other way. I wouldn't bet Atlanta even then, if you
(17:22):
tell me Foes is gonna play even one level better
then Atlanta or Philly. Here plus three is a great bat.
So let's say it's even sixty forty that he plays
the same. Let's be negative about it. So sixty percent
of the time I've got a coin flip. Of the
time with the Eagles plus three, I've got a really
nice bat. So I'm very comfortable with that. So we're
(17:43):
hitting quarterback, quarterback quarterback. We gotta talk defenses, and I
know the Philly defense is something you believe in. Yeah,
last I checked, Carson Wentz, even though this Lion is
saying he is the most valuable player in NFL history,
doesn't play defense. And the Philadelphia defense number one in
the Tire National Football League against the run, number four
total defense, number four scoring defense, and a motivated Philadelphia
(18:07):
defense reports out there in the media this week. Fletcher
Cox knows what this line is. The players know that
they're an underdog here, and they're very motivated, So len
are like, what are you going with our j best
bet of the week. This is probably the only game.
What are you doing? Whyse guy don't carry his money
in a wallet. Hey, wise guy carries money in a
role only game. I'm taking off the rubber band for
(18:28):
this NFL weekend. Eagles plus three, I think it's shop it.
You can find it at one ten. Do we have
the very uncommon at least on this show double like
Fred Powers? Do you do have a double like like
Philly plus the three? All right, Titans Patriots? I don't
know if we're gonna have the same thing. This one
is crazy with the number. These numbers do not pop
(18:49):
up in the playoffs. In fact, since two thousand, this
is the seven spot in the playoffs where games the
twelve points or higher with the point spread Patriots lane
and a half. The total is Let's start with a
big change from the regular season, because for those that
listen here on Straight out of Vegas, those that listen
(19:12):
to the Dream Preview, and by the way, go to
pregame dot com and you can find the Dream Preview
or my Twitter at our Jane Vegas and Pezik and
I had a one on one when an hour forty
five breaking down four games. Good deep dive. And one
of the things that we've talked about the entire year
(19:33):
is when you get over a field or over a touchdown,
it's for me dogger pass. Now. The main reason for that,
and it's not that in college, right, but NFL main
reason is this. Even the best NFL teams are not
favored by over a touchdown all that often. And if
a team needs some less than a percent effort weeks
(19:55):
and we all know teams don't play to max effort
every week, right, there's flat spots almost always. Those flat
spots are gonna be against the team that you think
you can beat. Even if you eat that extra chicken
wing on Tuesday night or even if you watch some
of Narcos on Netflix instead of film Wednesday night. Right,
(20:16):
you gotta do that sometimes if you're an NFL player,
maybe not Tom Brady, but most and if you do,
that's the game when you're favored by ten, eleven, twelve. Thus,
when you bet the dog, you're getting a chance that
the favorite is not focused. In the playoffs, every favorite
is focused. Thus the main reason to play dogs goes out.
(20:38):
The window, doesn't mean I play more favorites and dogs.
It means I'm much much much more open to play
a favorite, even a bigger one. And oh, by the way,
seven straight double digit favorites have covered in the NFL playoffs.
That's a good number. And yet I still want to
build a case for the Titans. Can we do it?
(20:59):
Can we do it? Marcus Mariota hasn't been this healthy
the entire season, and he closed this season nicely. This
is the Marcus Mariota from two years ago? Are j what?
What games? Are we talking about? The second half? Great
block last week? That means he's healthier than he's ever been.
With that hammy, you've gotta be healthy to catch a
(21:19):
touchdown when to all right, here's what I'll say. I'm
not a big Mariota guy. One of four quarterbacks to
have more interceptions than touchdowns this year. And Kaiser, the
dastardly Kaiser from the Browns he cost me a lot
of money, is on that list. Hunley is on that list.
(21:40):
And Simeon think about it, Trevor Simeon, Honley Kaiser, and
here comes Mr Franchise. Nah, not true, so, but I
do think he's healthier than he's been most of the year.
And here's a key concept, and it's a macro concept
you can apply to a bunch of NFL play us.
(22:00):
Running quarterbacks are indefensible. You cannot defend a running quarterback
if they're willing to run a bunch. It's just it's
not sustainable. Meaning, tell me the running quarterback that even
runs a decent amount during the regular season, it doesn't
get hurt at some point. Right. R G Three, we
(22:21):
can go through the whole list, is in the playoffs,
though the business decision, it makes more sense to run more.
So we've seen Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson's played really well
this year, but in some of his years leading up
to this year, Russell Wilson was a good quarterback who
became very good in the playoffs because he would run
(22:44):
a lot more. And the fact that Marriotta is willing
to run more in the playoffs I think makes him
probably from a blow average quarterback to rise to the
level of an average quarterback. And that's not great, but
it shortainly is in an improvement. More breakdown of Saturday's
divisional game. I want to know if we have the
(23:04):
factor in that Patriots. The reported drama with the Patriots,
but first Kevin figures with the latest plenty of action
on Friday night in the NBA Gentleman. Also in Milwaukee,
the Warriors what they won away to ninety four victory
over the Bucks despite not having Steph Curry, who missed
his second straight game with the bum ankle. The Warriors
getting there eleventh straight road victory as Kevin Duran had
(23:25):
twenty six points, six boards and six assists. Draymond Green
coming up close with the near triple double twenty one points,
ten boards, and seven assists as Milwaukee was held to
just twelve points in the fourth quarter. The Pacers are
racing twenty two point first quarter deficit. They come back
and beat the Cavaliers in Indiana nine seven to nine five.
Is Indies third victory over Cleveland this season. Darren Collinson
(23:47):
leading the Pacers with twenty two points. Lamb Stevenson was
sixteen points and eleven rebounds. Even Beta Lebron James to
a technical foul in the fourth quarter. Lebron did have
twenty seven points, a boards and eleven assists in the loss.
That's three straight losses by the way for the Cavaliers, who,
by the way, did not have Isaiah Thomas or Dwayne Waite.
They both sat out the game to rest. Online car
shopping can be confusing, not anymore. With True Price from
(24:10):
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In Minnesota, the Tea Wolves beat the next One eighteen
to one oh eight, as Minnesota had eight players scoring
double figures, including Carl Anthony Towns, who failed just one assist,
shy of his second career triple double, cat with twenty
three points, fifteen rebounds, and nine assists for Minnesota's fourth
(24:33):
straight victory. The Knicks, now just four and fifteen on
the road. The Rockets winning the nightcap in the NBA
one twelve to nine over the Phoenix Suns as Chris
Paul at twenty five points, eight boards and six assists
to lead Houston, who all of their starters scored in
double figures Elsewhere the Pelicans thirty six points and nine
boards from Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins chipping in twenty four points,
(24:54):
nineteen boards and eight assists as the Pelicans beat the
Blazers in New Orleans one nineteen to one thirteen and
news out of the NFL the police blodder in the NFL,
it's not legal everywhere yet, gentleman. Forty Niners rookie linebacker
Ruben Foster arrested in Tuscaloosa, Alabama for Mr. Meaner marijuana possession.
He was released on dred dollar bond. Foster went to
(25:14):
the University of Alabama, of course, Second in the Night
on the forty Niners and tackles with seventy two on
the season. Of course, controversy controversies surrounding came at the
scouting combine overad diluted You'reine sample, which placed him in
the substance abuse program coming into his rookie season. Back
to Straight out of Vegas Live where you want athletes,
But I'm telling you you need to move to a
(25:35):
state where the wacky tobaccy is legal. Because this is
actually r J. He just mentioned Reuben Foster on the
forty Niners. It's actually the second high profile news item
with an Alabama athlete popped in their home state. Deante Wilder,
who is arguably the best heavyweight boxer in the world
or second best. He actually just got probation for a
(25:56):
weed hit get out Alabama, get out coffees for closing
get out. But Steve, let's let's let's uh do our um,
what's it called. Let's let's play lawyer for a minute.
Is it doesn't matter what state you're in. The league's
have rules again, So I understand that. But he didn't
get caught by the league in this. It's just, you know,
(26:16):
it's getting pulled over with uh, you know, a couple
of leaves or whatever they call, you know whatever. I'm
not into the weed lingo. I don't do that stuff,
but I do, but I do support it, and I
do support taxing it and getting your mind. You're obviously
so clear headed. I mean you've got to be paleo.
I mean you can't. You can't be this sharp if
you're putting anything unclear in your your mind. I like
to to use the term sharp because it is co
(26:38):
field the square. I'm with two Sharps, Brad Powers and R. J. Bell,
which I think plays well into yards per play. You guys,
the Sharps love this yards per play number, but the
Patriot yard per played differential between offense and defense ain't
that great? You know, Pheesic talks about this all the time.
Ballot check is the one coach and the patch of
(26:59):
the one team. We can't figure out mathematically how they
do what they do. Pretty much every other team, a
combination of statistics will lead to their level of play,
not in any given game, but over an extended period.
And thus, if the statistics say one thing and the
scoreboard says another, and we talked about that with the Falcons,
(27:21):
we know that in the Falcons case, they were gonna
play better on the scoreboards. Soon enough, they did. Or
sometimes a team is overperforming on the scoreboard and the
stats don't warrant it, and they usually regress back. The
Pats year after year after year exceed expectations based upon
their stats. They do better on the scoreboard. We don't
(27:45):
understand it. So what we've just done as a group,
the wise guys just say, whatever the stats are, they're
gonna do better. It doesn't change. Though. The Pats stats
have fallen back since last year, and yeah, they're still
better than their stats. But this is a team that
won the Super Bowl last year by a smidge an
(28:07):
amazing comeback, but it was a smidge and you can't
get much tighter right over time, and this team is
significantly worse. So the idea they should be such a
clear favorite, especially with Minnesota, Saints, Atlanta all playing so
well in the West or in the NFC. To me,
(28:28):
I think that the Super Bowl odds with the Pats
being such big favorites isn't warranted though. Obviously the Pats
are favorite in the a f C to make the
game because they've got two home games, so a little
knock on them there? Can we find a big knock
on them with the reported drama behind the scenes with
Brady and craft v Belichick. You know, we were talking
about how successful the Pats have been. This is pretty amazing.
(28:50):
This is the Pats against the spread win percentage for
various time periods. So I'm gonna read the time period
than their rank one to thirty two. This season Pat's
number two, last two seasons, Pats number one, last three seasons,
Pats number two, last five seasons, Pats number A t s.
(29:13):
Really yeah, so this season to last two seasons one,
last three seasons two, last five seasons two, now number two.
Now I'm gonna read all the following time periods and
their number one in each, so I don't even have
to say number one anymore. Last eight years, last ten years,
last twelve years, last fifteen years, since Brady's first start
(29:37):
one and since Belichick in every one of those time
periods the best a t S record. So you don't
make money betting, and and for a big chunk of
that time, they've been a premium. Gonna say it's a
fives logic, you have to pay a premium, Well, it's not.
Whatever that premium is what Belichick is doing that we
can't figure out in the stats, And I mean we've
(30:00):
got a sense of it, right is Feesik talks about, Oh,
if there's a penalty and they get to kick off
from the fifty, they don't just kick it out of
the end zone. They'll boom it up and cough and
corner them down to the one and they gain eight
yards that way. There's all kind of ways they're gaining
eight yards that no one else in the league is doing.
So Pat's mine is thirteen and a half. R. J.
(30:20):
Bel Leaner like, I'm gonna go lean on Tennessee at
fourteen thirteen and a half. In passing, I think you'll
see some fourteens. Lean Tennessee, Brad Power's on the side
of the total. I'm gonna got eight. I'm gonna go under.
So here's my thinking here. Tennessee's game plan to have
success in this game has to be to run the football.
(30:41):
Mariota showing more running ability last week, Derrick Henry had
great success. What's the weakness of the Patriots defense against
the runs? So I think that's the game plan. Get
the clock moving. Are j already mentioned Tom Brady, you know,
taking a step back towards the end of the season.
I expect that as well. And we've seen the undercash
for the last five games for New England, five the
last seven for Tennessee under my lean, So at eight,
(31:04):
don't is that number high enough? Or you you look
at it, you say, hey, laying thirteen and a half,
fourteen is too much. You know, we talked about in
college football low total forty. It's not a low enough
total right now. So there might be a little correlation.
I mean, if you're inclined to like the patch, you
probably should be inclined to like the over if you
do want to play the total and dogging under. But
it's certainly not like a forced player. Brad's thinking like
(31:27):
two is gonna be the total, then you're more inclined
to like about But but again, guys, here's the cautionary tale.
If you bet one game Saturday, in one game Sunday,
you've played half the NFL games. That's tantamount to playing
eight NFL games on a typical weekend. Not get it.
(31:47):
You could say, oh, yeah, but these two games there's
extra value, and I don't care if it's two out
of two. And if you truly believe that, that's fine.
But if you're just kind of forcing plays, be careful
because the line can't be wrong in every game, and
the only time you can make money long term. You
can always win a game. I could lay. I could
have taken Iowa MINEUS twenty against Ohio State even money
(32:11):
and may and won the game. What I went around
Stratton saying I was on the right side. No right,
So you can always have an operation, but long term,
the line has to be wrong for you to make money.
Last thing, quickly, I think this turmoil is an X factor.
A lot of people are dismissing it. Some people are saying, oh,
pats tend to come together. Yeah, that's the point. They've
(32:33):
always come together as a team against external forces. Now
the conflict if we believe the article is internal. We
haven't seen that before. We're company alive from the guy,
go Fox Sports Radio Studios. It's easy to say or
more on car insurance with Geico, got a Geiko dot
com or call eight seven Auto. The only hard part
figuring out which way is easier. So I'm talking to
(32:55):
Brad before the show and He's like, I was just
breaking down all the college basketball teams power rated all
yeah up at pregame dot com. Right now you can
find my second edition of my power ratings, obviously known
for college football throughout the course the year. Three fifty
one teams in Division one college basketball, they're all power rated.
Check out the Big Brain. And by the way, you
(33:17):
can follow Brad on Twitter at Brad Powers seven po
W E R S seven Brad Power seven. We got
five games that you're calling big games in college basketball
on Saturday, Michigan at Michigan State. Michigan State is lane
nine and a half. Yeah, I'm actually gonna lean with
Michigan State here minus the big point spread and reason
(33:37):
being for me goes back to the last meeting. An outlier.
Michigan destroys Michigan State last season by thirty points. It's
the largest loss from Michigan State since nineteen nine six
against the arrival Michigan and this wasn't experienced team coming
back this year, so a lot of those players were
in that game. Tom Is was the type of coach
to have an act to grind. And here's the value
(33:59):
with this year's team. Michigan State's off back to back
probably the worst two performances of this season against Ohio
State and also against Rutger's. That's why we're not laying
ten and a half in this one value on the
Spartans MILUS nine and a half. Top teams meet in
the Big twelve, Oklahoma at home, laying six against TCU. Yeah,
here's what I've seen from TCU, A team that had
(34:19):
a surprising twelve when I started this season. The market
caught up with them and they've only covered one of
their last four games. Trade Young for Oklahoma. If you
haven't heard the name yet, you're just getting into college basketball.
The superstar of the year averaging nearly thirty points per
game Tennis sis per game. Usually I see that Oklahoma
was over value in the marketplace, not necessarily here they
had the situational advantage back to back home games. TCU
(34:42):
just was on the road the other night. Value on
Oklahoma minus six, and that's where my lean is. Three
more games on the way in college basketball, including North
Carolina and Notre Dame. And yes, we will close out
with look ahead to Sunday in the National Football League,
and actually the big news of the week as well,
the higher of John Gruen right here Sharon A. Vegas
Fox for Tradio Progressives new home quote explorer makes it
(35:12):
easier to protect what you love. Just go online, compare quotes,
and choose what's right for you. Progressive dot Com is
your home for all things home insurance. Sharon Vegas, Steve Cofield,
R J. Bell, Brad Powers in the Wise Guy's chair
will close out with look at some key points from
the NFL games on Sunday. But first the arrest of
(35:36):
the important part of the slate for college basketball. We
moved to West Virginia and Texas Tech, another key matchup.
It's so weird saying big twice. I still can't get
a West Virginia Big twelve. But anyway, West Virginia having
a great season. Uh, they're getting four and a half
at Texas Tech. Chris Beard. Maybe people don't know, but
he is doing a greory job absolutely uh for Texas Tech.
But I'm gonna lean with West Virginia here. They own
(35:57):
the nation's longest winning streak right now, fifteen straight wins
for them, Top ten defense, and especially this time of
year as you get into conference play, where I like
to find it as far as advantages is who's played
the tougher schedule. A lot of times you get great
disparities in nonconference action. West Virginia has played the much
tougher nonconference schedule of to day. Slight value on West
Virginia plus the four and a half a c C.
(36:19):
Miami's at Clemson the Tigers Clemson playing five. Yeah, and
here's another team that would began to get over price
Clemson one ten straight games, the market caught up to him.
What's happened here? Recently failed to cover each of their
last three games, and the rest advantage significant for their
opponent Miami in this game. And that's why I'm leaning
with the Hurricanes. They've been off for a week. Clemson
(36:39):
just played the other night on the road, an NC
State early start time for this one. I think they're tired.
That's why I'm leaning with the Hurricanes plus the five
final College basketball lean maybe on the total side. Notre
Dames beat up, I mean really beat up. Some of
their best players are out there taking on North Carolina
and Mike Pray likes to go up and down the
floora let's score a lot. But he can't do that anymore.
He's kind of changing his ways absolutely, and he's been
(37:01):
known to do this throughout his coaching career at Notre Dame.
It's called the burn offense. So, yes, you said that
they're without their two best players, Bonzi Colson and Matt Ferrell. Well,
the odds makers and the entire market is adjusted on
the side, but not necessarily on the total. And this
is why my best bets under one seven in this game.
Their offense the last two games without their two best
players averaging thirty points per game, less than that they
(37:23):
were the first twelve games of this season. It's been
adjusted on the side, not on the total. Therefore, best
bet under one Sunday Divisional Round action in the National
Football League will have fifteen twenty minutes plus a breakdown
on tomorrow show. But quick hit on the Vikings and
the Saints. The Vikes are favored by four and a
half five and we may want to look at coaching
(37:44):
success in the playoffs here. Yeah, and to me this
is paradoxical. What do I mean? I mean? On one hand,
Mike Zimmer is one of the best coaches in the NFL,
in fact, since he became head coach. If you just
said I like the cut of his jib, anyone that
works for Marvin Lewis for all those years must be
(38:06):
mighty good. A little sarcasm, right, If you had just
blindly bet every Minnesota game since Zimmer became the head coach,
forty four winners, nineteen losers, two pushes, seventy percent against
the spread, that's the best in the NFL. It's not
even close. Okay, sounds good, right. Here's the other side
(38:30):
of it. Sean Payton last one a playoff game last weekend.
Mike Zimmer last one a playoff game twenty one years ago.
He has coached twenty complete NFL seasons since as an
assistant as a head coach, made the playoffs ten of
(38:51):
those twenty years. Oh, in ten straight up in those
playoff games. So we can say, oh, that's an app
ration maybe, but we know the playoffs a different animal.
And it's one thing to have total inexperience. Is it
better or worse to have a bunch of losing experience.
(39:12):
So on one hand, Zimmer is great. On the other hand,
we've got he's playing a Super Bowl coach winning coach
and he's never won a playoff game. And I fought
this whole Hey, the coach, even as an assistant, these
are his numbers. I fought that on Tom Herman right
in college football with Texas. I'm not saying it turned
out to be right, but Tom Herman had this amazing
history going back as an assistant and now as a
(39:33):
head coach that he does well as a dog. But
here's my clarification. It's not that he's bad at it,
because as an assistant you don't control a lot of
the things. It's that he has the absence of winning experience.
It's almost like someone that's never been in the playoffs.
It would be equally bad to never have been there
versus never have won. I mean, he doesn't know what
(39:56):
to do to win. Steelers Land seven against the Jags
this week leading up? Is this good with a team
that Levian bell is talking about his money? Are Hailey
and Big Ben talking to each other? They have drama?
Oh yeah, it's great. It's great, Dealer fan, it's great.
It's great for the O C and the quarterback not
to talk, right. They save it. You know how in
(40:18):
radio they talk about save it for the air. Yeah,
they're saving it for the game. You know what. It
worked on the goal line against the Patriots on the
fake spike play. They all knew what was going on. There,
a lot of cohesion. And then I think it makes
a ton of sense that your key running backs talking
about holding out next year before the seasons even over.
I don't know if my sarcasm is coming through or not.
Not at all. I thought you were serious. But tomorrow
(40:38):
I'll tell you what I really think. Ten o'clock to midnight.
Check out the Dream preview. Yeah, this this was almost
two hours of analysis. Jonas Knocks is on the way
and like r J said, we're back tomorrow ten o'clock Pacific,
right here starting at Vegas on Fox Sports RADIOA
You're listening to Fox Sports. You heard it Friday night
here in Vegas, Dove Cofield R J. Bell, and in
the wise Guy chair, college specialist Brad Powers. I think
he's got some NFL takes tonight and we will get
to the end. We'll see if those takes are worthy
or Now it sounds like a threat already. I want
(00:22):
to set the bar. Set the bar, all right. We
started off the show with the Vegas lead. One of
the big stories we want to talk about that is
a trending in Las Vegas. And listen, quarterbacks in the
National Football League in the divisional round. It's a big
deal right now. How big a deal is it? How
much of a predictor is it if quarterbacks have lots
of experience or almost no playoff experience? Well, to me,
(00:43):
this is the story of the weekend. I'm not sure
how much it matters, but to whatever degree it does,
this is the weekend. It matters more than any I've
ever seen. Let me say that again. The disparity between
the quarterbacks in these four games is bigger than I've
(01:04):
ever seen. Let's go through the list quickly. Matt Ryan
nine starts in the playoffs. Nick Foles one, Tom Brady
thirty four starts in the playoffs, Marriotta one, Big Ben
twenty starts in the playoffs, Blake Borders one, Drew Brees
twelve starts in the playoffs, case Keenum zero. You added up.
(01:28):
They're playing each other, right, it's exactly matched up. The
experienced group seventy five playoffs starts, one thirty three touchdown
passes in the playoffs alone. The other inexperienced group three starts,
five touchdown passes. You look at the super experience group,
(01:50):
is there a guy that you're a little worried about?
Is there is there like any doubt around his experience,
how good he's been, or maybe where he is in
his career. Great question. First, I think it says something
that the three of the four experienced quarterbacks are the
ones that are favored, and in the exception being obviously
(02:12):
Drew Brees with Case Keenan favored in that game. But
we're gonna focus mostly on the Saturday games. Then Tomorrow
night ten o'clock Pacific to midnight, we'll have two hours
and we'll go deep, deep dive into the Sunday games
and obviously much more. But I look at Tom Brady
(02:32):
And listen, I put this out on Twitter and I
got people saying, yeah, but he won the super Bowl. Listen,
that was the dumb guy voice in case. Yeah, alright,
I use mine all the time, my normal voice I got.
I got. It's the guy on the phone tweeting back
or sending an email exactly a little bit. What do
(02:54):
you mean? It was like the auto lauto machine is broken.
So the dumb guy will say, yeah, but Brady won
the super Bowl. It's like, yeah, we're not saying he's bad.
What you do in Vegas is what is the expectation?
What is expected? And then and then it's how good
(03:14):
is he really? So my point is I think the
case can be made that Brady is overrated at the
end of seasons. So let's walk through this. First ten
games this year, Brady has one interception, last six games,
six interceptions. Okay, last year he only played twelve regular
(03:38):
season games. So this idea of game seventeen eighteen nineteen
being where an older quarterback drops off the most, I'm
not sure we would have seen it last year. But
even with the four less games, if you look at
the entire regular season, so twelve games, Brady had two interceptions.
(04:00):
In the three playoff games, he had three interceptions, So
it would seem somewhat of a drop off, but I
think a little bit less there because he had four
less games. But even in two thousand and fifteen, and
this is the last year, we'll look at the first
fourteen games of the season, he only had two games
with a pass rating below nine. All right, so fourteen games,
(04:21):
only two let's say below average games. Final four games
three below average games, so three out of four, two
out of fourteen. And it makes sense cofield because if
you think about it, we saw it with Peyton Manning.
Older quarterbacks get beat up as this season progresses, and
(04:42):
I think you start seeing them drop off come playoff time.
Brady is now forty. The last time he's playing games
seventeen Tomorrow Saturday. The next time or the last time
he played games seventeen, he was two years younger, because
not last year. The difference between thirty eight and forty
(05:05):
can make all the difference in the world. I'm not
saying Brady's not good. I'm saying I think the average
fan would say he's one of the three best quarterbacks,
and I'm thinking maybe he's one of the seven best quarterbacks,
which is still amazing for a forty year old. But
I think he's gonna be priced a little bit expensive,
So I'm surprised you didn't go with Matt Ryan. Colin
(05:29):
Cower heard has been calling Matt Ryan even after the
win last week. He's been doing it all season. Andy
Dalton in a Dome that that he would be the
group of experienced guys that maybe just as at cracked
up to what you know. He's a reputation wise though
the rep he's got me, he's just not that good.
I think, if anything in Atlanta has been underrated pretty
much this whole year. There's been no team that their
(05:52):
stats have been significantly better than their scoreboard more so
than Atlanta, where the wise guys have loved the Falcons,
and it's because their stats have been so good. And yeah,
I mean, I just I think maybe off last year,
perhaps a little, but I think even four or five
(06:13):
games in was Sarkis and not doing as well as
oh Ce. I just don't feel like the Falcons have
been overrated. So a lot of people around the country
are shocked. This is the first time this has ever happened.
A one against the six and the ones a dog
Atlanta's minus three going into this game. First of all,
we have to examine why is that the case? How
(06:34):
bad is Nick Foles as compared to Carson Wentz? Where
would the line have been if Wentz was in here?
So this is one let me pose because Dan Patrick's
crew asked me this this week and the question was
would the line be if Wentz was healthy? And my
take was between minus six and minus seven. Now a
(06:56):
lot of people initially are saying, oh, that seems high. Well,
the Rams against Atlanta open six and a half, so
let's agree that line went down a little. Let's also
agree Atlanta one, so let's give him a one point upgrade,
so let's call it even. Um, let's say be four
and a half if the game were replayed the Rams game? Okay,
(07:20):
But now here's the question is you got to give
the Eagles one point for having a buy So four
and a half becomes five and a half. And now
the question is how much better are the Eagles in
the Rams? I think at minimum a point so too,
maybe a little more. So. I think the six or
(07:40):
seven if it was a healthy Wentz feels rock solid.
Thoughts Brett I completely agree. Uh, six and a half
seven sounds completely farable and you look at you know that.
Also a negative impact for Atlanta is the fact that
this is our fourth World game in five weeks. To me,
that's worth a half a point. I think maybe more
because so let's talk about that fourth road game in
(08:04):
five weeks coming up. But I think two factors make
it even tougher than that. One is Atlanta has played
some high stakes, high pressure games. Now, obviously the playoffs
last week high stakes high pressure. But I'm saying they
were pretty much in quasi must win situations since what
the Cowboys game you remember that was kind of like
(08:27):
the winner of this has a great track to the playoffs,
the loser is pretty much out of it. Well, it
ended up being that way. That was like what seven
weeks ago. And not that they've won every game, but
every game has mattered. And then if the game before
the fourth game of the five is a trip all
(08:47):
the way out west and then all the way back
and then back on the road again four out of five,
I think you've got a tire team against quite frankly
a totally rested team, and Eagles team that made effort
against the Cowboys in Week seventeen, but not full effort.
So it's a team it's had one and a half
buys the Eagles, big advantage with the rest for the Eagles.
(09:10):
So this is a classic r J bel spot. You
look for market overreaction with the lines, and you believe
this is an overreaction and now the Falcons are too much,
they're over priced or two to one. But face. I
look for two things over reaction in the NFL market
and then the two for one of face. But sticking
with the NFL market, I mean, listen, John kincaide friend
(09:35):
of mine from Atlanta Radio. He asked me the night
of the Falcons game, Hey, what's the opener here? I thought,
pick them right, I And for this to get to
three as quickly as it has, and let's then kind
of close the circle here. If the line would have
been seven and the line's three, then Wentz is worth
(09:58):
ten points. That is the most valuable player in NFL history.
Aaron Rodgers is the only other player worth ten. But
think about this now, Aaron Rodgers backup is Huntley, the
backup for Whence his foes foes, even though he's underperformed
since he's been playing, is even today considered better than Hunley?
(10:22):
Does anyone disagree with that? Two points better? At least? Yeah,
at least three points? Maybe I think better for sure,
maybe at point maybe two, maybe three. Okay, So wait
a minute. If you go from Rogers to an inferior
Huntley and it's ten, and now you're going from Wentz
to a superior foes in its ten, that means Wentz
(10:43):
is the most valuable player in NFL history, more valuable
than Rogers. Who wants to make that point? Who wants
to defend that? Well, that's what By betting the Falcons
at minus three, you're saying that Wentz is the most
valuable player in NFL history. That's just slow you down.
(11:04):
Let's get an official play on this game on the
way back, and then we'll move to the Titans and
the Patriots right here straight at Vegas, Fox Sports Radio Vega.
Progressive Insurance, creators of the Name your Price tool, choose
(11:24):
from a range of coverage options and picked the price
that works for you. Visit Progressive dot com today. Rolling
on start at a Vegas Steve Cofield, R J. Bell,
Brad Powers in the wise Guy's chair. We got to
pick on the way with the Eagles and the Falcons,
and of course we're gonna break down the Titans and
the Patriots were coming alive from the get go Fox
Sports Radio Studios. Fifteen minutes could save you fifteen or
(11:47):
more on car insurance. Visit Geico dot com for a
free rate quote. So we're gonna get I think a
liner alike on the Eagles. I think that's where r
J was moving towards. So I listened to a lot
of mainstream sports talk radio. I read a lot of
mainstream writers, and man, they are gaga over the Atlanta Falcons,
(12:08):
willing to lay the minus three. And you just spent
a good five minutes saying, hey, this number is an
overreaction right now. So what do you make of the
mainstream kind of all jumping in one direction saying, hey,
Falcons are gonna do this, They're gonna cover, They're gonna win.
I think there's a ton to learn from the mainstream
because you take a guy that's a former GM or
(12:28):
a former player. Quite frankly, they know more about the
NFL in the trenches when it comes to the locker
rooms than I do than anyone in Vegas does. But
what Vegas does best is we bet numbers. We don't
bet teams. There's not a team in any spot. You
(12:49):
could tell me the Tennessee Titans with Mariota out and
I've got Castle starting. Give me enough enough points, I'll
bet my biggest bet of the year. Give me thirty
five points. I'll make my biggest bet of the year.
I'm betting numbers, not teams. And most guys that aren't Vegas,
(13:09):
I mean, you listen to someone like Mike Mike Francessa, right,
obviously he knows sports like crazy, right, famous New York
guy that just retired. I heard his picks recently and
he's like, oh, yeah, the line was like three and
a half. He's like, I lay after seven. It's like,
there's never a line at three and a half that
you can lay at seven. It just they might win
(13:30):
a given game, but in the long run that the
that game at seven is not gonna win. So I
think the sense of the Falcons being the team that's
hotter right now with momentum is absolutely true. It's just
the market is over priced that. And this is I
think a great time to talk about a powerful concept.
(13:51):
If you bet Atlanta it's not obvious how you'll lose. Right,
you don't expect Matt Ryan to have a horrible game.
You don't expect Nick Foles to have a great game.
So if you lose, you're gonna have the crutch to say, man,
can you believe Ryan didn't throw you know, through three interceptions?
(14:12):
Or can you believe foes look that good after the bat? Now,
if you bet Philadelphia, it's obvious how you could lose.
Matt Ryan could have a monster day and it would
not be surprising. Nick Foles could have a horrible day
and it wouldn't be surprising. You are paying a premium
to bet the team that doesn't have an obvious way
(14:35):
to lose, and being willing to accept the fear that
comes with the obvious ways to lose. And it's not comfortable, Right,
I'm betting knowing this could be a problem. That's when
you're usually getting value. I think that nails it. I
thought Physic and he'll be back in tomorrow and we
do our ten p Pacific straight out of Vegas on
(14:56):
Saturdays in the Sundays. I thought Physicic. Throughout the year,
I was like, Wow, that was uncomfortable, Like that doesn't
seem like the right way to go, like you were
going against the grain. Some of that was because he
was just playing wrong, and I was contradicting that. Sometimes, Yeah,
he had, but you know he had a good year.
Oh he had a really good year and a lot
of and a lot of times he when you know
(15:16):
the the ebb and flow or the ebb is going
one way, he would go against that tide, no doubt.
And and Fez is, fez is Actually I'm a pretty
basic contrarian player. And and Fez is he will play
those games, but he eliminates maybe twenty percent of those
that I would play, And then he has twenty percent.
I can't even see it. Right. There's poker players that
(15:38):
are rock solid that can make two K year playing poker.
That's a great living, right, And then there's a Phil
Ivy that's gonna play exactly like that two k profit
guy nine five percent of the time, but five percent
of the time he's gonna do something totally different. And
Fezic has that next level ability in the NFL. So
(15:59):
give me a few more positive about Philly. The boy
has to mean something. You said it did, But what
does the boy mean? And for Foals, he had extra
time off, so if he didn't look great in the
last game and a half, he could be fixed right,
or at least get him to a level where you
feel comfortable. Here's another way to think about it. I
don't know how good Foes is gonna be. If Foes
(16:20):
had played the way we expected him to, this line
would be picked. I mean this, This has been a
significant adjustment downgrade of Fos since he's been playing. I'm
not sure it's enough games to do that as drastically
as it's been done. So to me, there's two scenarios.
One is Fos is as bad as he seems. The
(16:40):
other is he's gonna play better here a combination of Hey,
those were just bad games, but there weren't enough of
them to show that's truly him. They were just some
bad games. Or he's gotten better because he's had two
weeks to focus, keep repping, and here we are a
little bit better. A or B same or better. Can't
(17:01):
be much worse. Let's be honest, there is if he's
the same. I think three is right. If you told me,
if God came down and said, Fols is gonna play
like he did against the Raiders on Christmas Eve, I'd
be like, Okay, at three, it's a coin flip. I'm
not in sure, I said, But I wouldn't run the
other way. I wouldn't bet Atlanta even then, if you
(17:22):
tell me Foes is gonna play even one level better
then Atlanta or Philly. Here plus three is a great bat.
So let's say it's even sixty forty that he plays
the same. Let's be negative about it. So sixty percent
of the time I've got a coin flip. Of the
time with the Eagles plus three, I've got a really
nice bat. So I'm very comfortable with that. So we're
(17:43):
hitting quarterback, quarterback quarterback. We gotta talk defenses, and I
know the Philly defense is something you believe in. Yeah,
last I checked, Carson Wentz, even though this Lion is
saying he is the most valuable player in NFL history,
doesn't play defense. And the Philadelphia defense number one in
the Tire National Football League against the run, number four
total defense, number four scoring defense, and a motivated Philadelphia
(18:07):
defense reports out there in the media this week. Fletcher
Cox knows what this line is. The players know that
they're an underdog here, and they're very motivated, So len
are like, what are you going with our j best
bet of the week. This is probably the only game.
What are you doing? Whyse guy don't carry his money
in a wallet. Hey, wise guy carries money in a
role only game. I'm taking off the rubber band for
(18:28):
this NFL weekend. Eagles plus three, I think it's shop it.
You can find it at one ten. Do we have
the very uncommon at least on this show double like
Fred Powers? Do you do have a double like like
Philly plus the three? All right, Titans Patriots? I don't
know if we're gonna have the same thing. This one
is crazy with the number. These numbers do not pop
(18:49):
up in the playoffs. In fact, since two thousand, this
is the seven spot in the playoffs where games the
twelve points or higher with the point spread Patriots lane
and a half. The total is Let's start with a
big change from the regular season, because for those that
listen here on Straight out of Vegas, those that listen
(19:12):
to the Dream Preview, and by the way, go to
pregame dot com and you can find the Dream Preview
or my Twitter at our Jane Vegas and Pezik and
I had a one on one when an hour forty
five breaking down four games. Good deep dive. And one
of the things that we've talked about the entire year
(19:33):
is when you get over a field or over a touchdown,
it's for me dogger pass. Now. The main reason for that,
and it's not that in college, right, but NFL main
reason is this. Even the best NFL teams are not
favored by over a touchdown all that often. And if
a team needs some less than a percent effort weeks
(19:55):
and we all know teams don't play to max effort
every week, right, there's flat spots almost always. Those flat
spots are gonna be against the team that you think
you can beat. Even if you eat that extra chicken
wing on Tuesday night or even if you watch some
of Narcos on Netflix instead of film Wednesday night. Right,
(20:16):
you gotta do that sometimes if you're an NFL player,
maybe not Tom Brady, but most and if you do,
that's the game when you're favored by ten, eleven, twelve. Thus,
when you bet the dog, you're getting a chance that
the favorite is not focused. In the playoffs, every favorite
is focused. Thus the main reason to play dogs goes out.
(20:38):
The window, doesn't mean I play more favorites and dogs.
It means I'm much much much more open to play
a favorite, even a bigger one. And oh, by the way,
seven straight double digit favorites have covered in the NFL playoffs.
That's a good number. And yet I still want to
build a case for the Titans. Can we do it?
(20:59):
Can we do it? Marcus Mariota hasn't been this healthy
the entire season, and he closed this season nicely. This
is the Marcus Mariota from two years ago? Are j what?
What games? Are we talking about? The second half? Great
block last week? That means he's healthier than he's ever been.
With that hammy, you've gotta be healthy to catch a
(21:19):
touchdown when to all right, here's what I'll say. I'm
not a big Mariota guy. One of four quarterbacks to
have more interceptions than touchdowns this year. And Kaiser, the
dastardly Kaiser from the Browns he cost me a lot
of money, is on that list. Hunley is on that list.
(21:40):
And Simeon think about it, Trevor Simeon, Honley Kaiser, and
here comes Mr Franchise. Nah, not true, so, but I
do think he's healthier than he's been most of the year.
And here's a key concept, and it's a macro concept
you can apply to a bunch of NFL play us.
(22:00):
Running quarterbacks are indefensible. You cannot defend a running quarterback
if they're willing to run a bunch. It's just it's
not sustainable. Meaning, tell me the running quarterback that even
runs a decent amount during the regular season, it doesn't
get hurt at some point. Right. R G Three, we
(22:21):
can go through the whole list, is in the playoffs,
though the business decision, it makes more sense to run more.
So we've seen Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson's played really well
this year, but in some of his years leading up
to this year, Russell Wilson was a good quarterback who
became very good in the playoffs because he would run
(22:44):
a lot more. And the fact that Marriotta is willing
to run more in the playoffs I think makes him
probably from a blow average quarterback to rise to the
level of an average quarterback. And that's not great, but
it shortainly is in an improvement. More breakdown of Saturday's
divisional game. I want to know if we have the
(23:04):
factor in that Patriots. The reported drama with the Patriots,
but first Kevin figures with the latest plenty of action
on Friday night in the NBA Gentleman. Also in Milwaukee,
the Warriors what they won away to ninety four victory
over the Bucks despite not having Steph Curry, who missed
his second straight game with the bum ankle. The Warriors
getting there eleventh straight road victory as Kevin Duran had
(23:25):
twenty six points, six boards and six assists. Draymond Green
coming up close with the near triple double twenty one points,
ten boards, and seven assists as Milwaukee was held to
just twelve points in the fourth quarter. The Pacers are
racing twenty two point first quarter deficit. They come back
and beat the Cavaliers in Indiana nine seven to nine five.
Is Indies third victory over Cleveland this season. Darren Collinson
(23:47):
leading the Pacers with twenty two points. Lamb Stevenson was
sixteen points and eleven rebounds. Even Beta Lebron James to
a technical foul in the fourth quarter. Lebron did have
twenty seven points, a boards and eleven assists in the loss.
That's three straight losses by the way for the Cavaliers, who,
by the way, did not have Isaiah Thomas or Dwayne Waite.
They both sat out the game to rest. Online car
shopping can be confusing, not anymore. With True Price from
(24:10):
True Car now you can know the exact price you
will pay for your next car. So if it's a
true Card to enjoy a more confident car buying experience.
In Minnesota, the Tea Wolves beat the next One eighteen
to one oh eight, as Minnesota had eight players scoring
double figures, including Carl Anthony Towns, who failed just one assist,
shy of his second career triple double, cat with twenty
three points, fifteen rebounds, and nine assists for Minnesota's fourth
(24:33):
straight victory. The Knicks, now just four and fifteen on
the road. The Rockets winning the nightcap in the NBA
one twelve to nine over the Phoenix Suns as Chris
Paul at twenty five points, eight boards and six assists
to lead Houston, who all of their starters scored in
double figures Elsewhere the Pelicans thirty six points and nine
boards from Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins chipping in twenty four points,
(24:54):
nineteen boards and eight assists as the Pelicans beat the
Blazers in New Orleans one nineteen to one thirteen and
news out of the NFL the police blodder in the NFL,
it's not legal everywhere yet, gentleman. Forty Niners rookie linebacker
Ruben Foster arrested in Tuscaloosa, Alabama for Mr. Meaner marijuana possession.
He was released on dred dollar bond. Foster went to
(25:14):
the University of Alabama, of course, Second in the Night
on the forty Niners and tackles with seventy two on
the season. Of course, controversy controversies surrounding came at the
scouting combine overad diluted You'reine sample, which placed him in
the substance abuse program coming into his rookie season. Back
to Straight out of Vegas Live where you want athletes,
But I'm telling you you need to move to a
(25:35):
state where the wacky tobaccy is legal. Because this is
actually r J. He just mentioned Reuben Foster on the
forty Niners. It's actually the second high profile news item
with an Alabama athlete popped in their home state. Deante Wilder,
who is arguably the best heavyweight boxer in the world
or second best. He actually just got probation for a
(25:56):
weed hit get out Alabama, get out coffees for closing
get out. But Steve, let's let's let's uh do our um,
what's it called. Let's let's play lawyer for a minute.
Is it doesn't matter what state you're in. The league's
have rules again, So I understand that. But he didn't
get caught by the league in this. It's just, you know,
(26:16):
it's getting pulled over with uh, you know, a couple
of leaves or whatever they call, you know whatever. I'm
not into the weed lingo. I don't do that stuff,
but I do, but I do support it, and I
do support taxing it and getting your mind. You're obviously
so clear headed. I mean you've got to be paleo.
I mean you can't. You can't be this sharp if
you're putting anything unclear in your your mind. I like
to to use the term sharp because it is co
(26:38):
field the square. I'm with two Sharps, Brad Powers and R. J. Bell,
which I think plays well into yards per play. You guys,
the Sharps love this yards per play number, but the
Patriot yard per played differential between offense and defense ain't
that great? You know, Pheesic talks about this all the time.
Ballot check is the one coach and the patch of
(26:59):
the one team. We can't figure out mathematically how they
do what they do. Pretty much every other team, a
combination of statistics will lead to their level of play,
not in any given game, but over an extended period.
And thus, if the statistics say one thing and the
scoreboard says another, and we talked about that with the Falcons,
(27:21):
we know that in the Falcons case, they were gonna
play better on the scoreboards. Soon enough, they did. Or
sometimes a team is overperforming on the scoreboard and the
stats don't warrant it, and they usually regress back. The
Pats year after year after year exceed expectations based upon
their stats. They do better on the scoreboard. We don't
(27:45):
understand it. So what we've just done as a group,
the wise guys just say, whatever the stats are, they're
gonna do better. It doesn't change. Though. The Pats stats
have fallen back since last year, and yeah, they're still
better than their stats. But this is a team that
won the Super Bowl last year by a smidge an
(28:07):
amazing comeback, but it was a smidge and you can't
get much tighter right over time, and this team is
significantly worse. So the idea they should be such a
clear favorite, especially with Minnesota, Saints, Atlanta all playing so
well in the West or in the NFC. To me,
(28:28):
I think that the Super Bowl odds with the Pats
being such big favorites isn't warranted though. Obviously the Pats
are favorite in the a f C to make the
game because they've got two home games, so a little
knock on them there? Can we find a big knock
on them with the reported drama behind the scenes with
Brady and craft v Belichick. You know, we were talking
about how successful the Pats have been. This is pretty amazing.
(28:50):
This is the Pats against the spread win percentage for
various time periods. So I'm gonna read the time period
than their rank one to thirty two. This season Pat's
number two, last two seasons, Pats number one, last three seasons,
Pats number two, last five seasons, Pats number A t s.
(29:13):
Really yeah, so this season to last two seasons one,
last three seasons two, last five seasons two, now number two.
Now I'm gonna read all the following time periods and
their number one in each, so I don't even have
to say number one anymore. Last eight years, last ten years,
last twelve years, last fifteen years, since Brady's first start
(29:37):
one and since Belichick in every one of those time
periods the best a t S record. So you don't
make money betting, and and for a big chunk of
that time, they've been a premium. Gonna say it's a
fives logic, you have to pay a premium, Well, it's not.
Whatever that premium is what Belichick is doing that we
can't figure out in the stats, And I mean we've
(30:00):
got a sense of it, right is Feesik talks about, Oh,
if there's a penalty and they get to kick off
from the fifty, they don't just kick it out of
the end zone. They'll boom it up and cough and
corner them down to the one and they gain eight
yards that way. There's all kind of ways they're gaining
eight yards that no one else in the league is doing.
So Pat's mine is thirteen and a half. R. J.
(30:20):
Bel Leaner like, I'm gonna go lean on Tennessee at
fourteen thirteen and a half. In passing, I think you'll
see some fourteens. Lean Tennessee, Brad Power's on the side
of the total. I'm gonna got eight. I'm gonna go under.
So here's my thinking here. Tennessee's game plan to have
success in this game has to be to run the football.
(30:41):
Mariota showing more running ability last week, Derrick Henry had
great success. What's the weakness of the Patriots defense against
the runs? So I think that's the game plan. Get
the clock moving. Are j already mentioned Tom Brady, you know,
taking a step back towards the end of the season.
I expect that as well. And we've seen the undercash
for the last five games for New England, five the
last seven for Tennessee under my lean, So at eight,
(31:04):
don't is that number high enough? Or you you look
at it, you say, hey, laying thirteen and a half,
fourteen is too much. You know, we talked about in
college football low total forty. It's not a low enough
total right now. So there might be a little correlation.
I mean, if you're inclined to like the patch, you
probably should be inclined to like the over if you
do want to play the total and dogging under. But
it's certainly not like a forced player. Brad's thinking like
(31:27):
two is gonna be the total, then you're more inclined
to like about But but again, guys, here's the cautionary tale.
If you bet one game Saturday, in one game Sunday,
you've played half the NFL games. That's tantamount to playing
eight NFL games on a typical weekend. Not get it.
(31:47):
You could say, oh, yeah, but these two games there's
extra value, and I don't care if it's two out
of two. And if you truly believe that, that's fine.
But if you're just kind of forcing plays, be careful
because the line can't be wrong in every game, and
the only time you can make money long term. You
can always win a game. I could lay. I could
have taken Iowa MINEUS twenty against Ohio State even money
(32:11):
and may and won the game. What I went around
Stratton saying I was on the right side. No right,
So you can always have an operation, but long term,
the line has to be wrong for you to make money.
Last thing, quickly, I think this turmoil is an X factor.
A lot of people are dismissing it. Some people are saying, oh,
pats tend to come together. Yeah, that's the point. They've
(32:33):
always come together as a team against external forces. Now
the conflict if we believe the article is internal. We
haven't seen that before. We're company alive from the guy,
go Fox Sports Radio Studios. It's easy to say or
more on car insurance with Geico, got a Geiko dot
com or call eight seven Auto. The only hard part
figuring out which way is easier. So I'm talking to
(32:55):
Brad before the show and He's like, I was just
breaking down all the college basketball teams power rated all
yeah up at pregame dot com. Right now you can
find my second edition of my power ratings, obviously known
for college football throughout the course the year. Three fifty
one teams in Division one college basketball, they're all power rated.
Check out the Big Brain. And by the way, you
(33:17):
can follow Brad on Twitter at Brad Powers seven po
W E R S seven Brad Power seven. We got
five games that you're calling big games in college basketball
on Saturday, Michigan at Michigan State. Michigan State is lane
nine and a half. Yeah, I'm actually gonna lean with
Michigan State here minus the big point spread and reason
(33:37):
being for me goes back to the last meeting. An outlier.
Michigan destroys Michigan State last season by thirty points. It's
the largest loss from Michigan State since nineteen nine six
against the arrival Michigan and this wasn't experienced team coming
back this year, so a lot of those players were
in that game. Tom Is was the type of coach
to have an act to grind. And here's the value
(33:59):
with this year's team. Michigan State's off back to back
probably the worst two performances of this season against Ohio
State and also against Rutger's. That's why we're not laying
ten and a half in this one value on the
Spartans MILUS nine and a half. Top teams meet in
the Big twelve, Oklahoma at home, laying six against TCU. Yeah,
here's what I've seen from TCU, A team that had
(34:19):
a surprising twelve when I started this season. The market
caught up with them and they've only covered one of
their last four games. Trade Young for Oklahoma. If you
haven't heard the name yet, you're just getting into college basketball.
The superstar of the year averaging nearly thirty points per
game Tennis sis per game. Usually I see that Oklahoma
was over value in the marketplace, not necessarily here they
had the situational advantage back to back home games. TCU
(34:42):
just was on the road the other night. Value on
Oklahoma minus six, and that's where my lean is. Three
more games on the way in college basketball, including North
Carolina and Notre Dame. And yes, we will close out
with look ahead to Sunday in the National Football League,
and actually the big news of the week as well,
the higher of John Gruen right here Sharon A. Vegas
Fox for Tradio Progressives new home quote explorer makes it
(35:12):
easier to protect what you love. Just go online, compare quotes,
and choose what's right for you. Progressive dot Com is
your home for all things home insurance. Sharon Vegas, Steve Cofield,
R J. Bell, Brad Powers in the Wise Guy's chair
will close out with look at some key points from
the NFL games on Sunday. But first the arrest of
(35:36):
the important part of the slate for college basketball. We
moved to West Virginia and Texas Tech, another key matchup.
It's so weird saying big twice. I still can't get
a West Virginia Big twelve. But anyway, West Virginia having
a great season. Uh, they're getting four and a half
at Texas Tech. Chris Beard. Maybe people don't know, but
he is doing a greory job absolutely uh for Texas Tech.
But I'm gonna lean with West Virginia here. They own
(35:57):
the nation's longest winning streak right now, fifteen straight wins
for them, Top ten defense, and especially this time of
year as you get into conference play, where I like
to find it as far as advantages is who's played
the tougher schedule. A lot of times you get great
disparities in nonconference action. West Virginia has played the much
tougher nonconference schedule of to day. Slight value on West
Virginia plus the four and a half a c C.
(36:19):
Miami's at Clemson the Tigers Clemson playing five. Yeah, and
here's another team that would began to get over price
Clemson one ten straight games, the market caught up to him.
What's happened here? Recently failed to cover each of their
last three games, and the rest advantage significant for their
opponent Miami in this game. And that's why I'm leaning
with the Hurricanes. They've been off for a week. Clemson
(36:39):
just played the other night on the road, an NC
State early start time for this one. I think they're tired.
That's why I'm leaning with the Hurricanes plus the five
final College basketball lean maybe on the total side. Notre
Dames beat up, I mean really beat up. Some of
their best players are out there taking on North Carolina
and Mike Pray likes to go up and down the
floora let's score a lot. But he can't do that anymore.
He's kind of changing his ways absolutely, and he's been
(37:01):
known to do this throughout his coaching career at Notre Dame.
It's called the burn offense. So, yes, you said that
they're without their two best players, Bonzi Colson and Matt Ferrell. Well,
the odds makers and the entire market is adjusted on
the side, but not necessarily on the total. And this
is why my best bets under one seven in this game.
Their offense the last two games without their two best
players averaging thirty points per game, less than that they
(37:23):
were the first twelve games of this season. It's been
adjusted on the side, not on the total. Therefore, best
bet under one Sunday Divisional Round action in the National
Football League will have fifteen twenty minutes plus a breakdown
on tomorrow show. But quick hit on the Vikings and
the Saints. The Vikes are favored by four and a
half five and we may want to look at coaching
(37:44):
success in the playoffs here. Yeah, and to me this
is paradoxical. What do I mean? I mean? On one hand,
Mike Zimmer is one of the best coaches in the NFL,
in fact, since he became head coach. If you just
said I like the cut of his jib, anyone that
works for Marvin Lewis for all those years must be
(38:06):
mighty good. A little sarcasm, right, If you had just
blindly bet every Minnesota game since Zimmer became the head coach,
forty four winners, nineteen losers, two pushes, seventy percent against
the spread, that's the best in the NFL. It's not
even close. Okay, sounds good, right. Here's the other side
(38:30):
of it. Sean Payton last one a playoff game last weekend.
Mike Zimmer last one a playoff game twenty one years ago.
He has coached twenty complete NFL seasons since as an
assistant as a head coach, made the playoffs ten of
(38:51):
those twenty years. Oh, in ten straight up in those
playoff games. So we can say, oh, that's an app
ration maybe, but we know the playoffs a different animal.
And it's one thing to have total inexperience. Is it
better or worse to have a bunch of losing experience.
(39:12):
So on one hand, Zimmer is great. On the other hand,
we've got he's playing a Super Bowl coach winning coach
and he's never won a playoff game. And I fought
this whole Hey, the coach, even as an assistant, these
are his numbers. I fought that on Tom Herman right
in college football with Texas. I'm not saying it turned
out to be right, but Tom Herman had this amazing
history going back as an assistant and now as a
(39:33):
head coach that he does well as a dog. But
here's my clarification. It's not that he's bad at it,
because as an assistant you don't control a lot of
the things. It's that he has the absence of winning experience.
It's almost like someone that's never been in the playoffs.
It would be equally bad to never have been there
versus never have won. I mean, he doesn't know what
(39:56):
to do to win. Steelers Land seven against the Jags
this week leading up? Is this good with a team
that Levian bell is talking about his money? Are Hailey
and Big Ben talking to each other? They have drama?
Oh yeah, it's great. It's great, Dealer fan, it's great.
It's great for the O C and the quarterback not
to talk, right. They save it. You know how in
(40:18):
radio they talk about save it for the air. Yeah,
they're saving it for the game. You know what. It
worked on the goal line against the Patriots on the
fake spike play. They all knew what was going on. There,
a lot of cohesion. And then I think it makes
a ton of sense that your key running backs talking
about holding out next year before the seasons even over.
I don't know if my sarcasm is coming through or not.
Not at all. I thought you were serious. But tomorrow
(40:38):
I'll tell you what I really think. Ten o'clock to midnight.
Check out the Dream preview. Yeah, this this was almost
two hours of analysis. Jonas Knocks is on the way
and like r J said, we're back tomorrow ten o'clock Pacific,
right here starting at Vegas on Fox Sports RADIOA
Fox Sports Radio News
Host
Jonas Knox
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