The Bayesian Conspiracy

A conversational podcast for aspiring rationalists.

Episodes

243 – Wes Is Not The Monogamy Police, with Wesly Fenza and Jennifer Kesteloot

August 6, 2025 • 113 mins

Wes defends his post I Am Not the Monogamy Police, while Jennifer asserts it’s about more than monogamy. LINKS Wes’s post I Am Not the Monogamy Police His blog, Living Within Reason The original tweets – monogamy vs charity Aella’s … Continue reading →

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Bayes Blast 44 – Play-By-Post Storytelling

August 4, 2025 • 16 mins

Olivia from the Guild of the Rose is back to tell us about the noble and most ancient tradition of play-by-post storytelling. (Spoiler, it’s the precursor to glowfic!)

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242 – TracingWoodgrains, live at Manifest 2025

July 23, 2025 • 93 mins

Eneasz sits down with Tracing Woodgrains before a live audience at Manifest 2025 for a wide range of topics. Then we follow up some more afterwards. LINKS Tracing Woodgrains on Twitter and at his Substack A reddit history of what … Continue reading →

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Bayes Blast 43 – Die-ing to Intuit Bayes’ Theorem

July 22, 2025 • 13 mins

Olivia is a member of the Guild of the Rose and a total badass. Enjoy the intuitive and fun lesson in Bayesian reasoning she shared with me at VibeCamp.

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Bonus – AI Village Hosts An Event For Humans

July 11, 2025 • 36 mins

Four AIs recruited a human to host a story-telling event in Dolores Park. Larissa Schiavo is this human. She tells of her interaction with the AIs, the story they wrote, and the meeting between human and machine in Dolores Park. … Continue reading →

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241 – Doom Debates, with Liron Shapira

July 9, 2025 • 111 mins

Liron Shapira debates AI luminaries and public intellectuals on the imminent possibility of human extinction. Let’s get on the P(Doom) Train. LINKS Doom Debates on YouTube Doom Debates podcast Most Watched Debate – Mike Israetel Liron’s current favorite debate – … Continue reading →

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240 – How To Live Well With High P(Doom) – with Ben Pace, Brandon Hendrickson, Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg

June 25, 2025 • 58 mins

Many of us have a high P(Doom) — a belief new AI tools could cause human extinction in the very near future. How can one live a good life in the face of this? We start with a panel discussion … Continue reading →

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Bayes Blast 42 – Epic AI Music

June 14, 2025 • 16 mins

David Youssef used Claude and Suno to make some truly awesome music. He tells us how he did it and some of his favorite lyrics. Check out the lyrics to the main song we discuss (Silicon Soul) here! Check out … Continue reading →

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239 – SymbyAI

June 11, 2025 • 82 mins

Steven works at SymbyAI, a startup that’s bringing AI into research review and replication. We talk with founder Ashia Livaudais about improving how we all Do Science. Also – If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies preorders here, or at Amazon. … Continue reading →

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238 – Part 2 of How A Rationalist Becomes A Christian

May 28, 2025 • 86 mins

We speak with a long-time Denver rationalist who’s converting to Christianity about why. Eneasz can’t get over the abandonment of epistemics. 🙁 This is Part 2, see the previous episode (here) for Part 1. LINKS Thomas Ambrose on Twitter Paid … Continue reading →

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237 – How A Rationalist Becomes A Christian

May 14, 2025 • 86 mins

We speak with a long-time Denver rationalist who’s converting to Christianity about why. Part one, it turns out. LINKS Thomas Ambrose on Twitter The Rationalist Summer Trifecta: Manifest 2025 LessOnline 2025 VibeCamp 2025 00:00:05 – OK so why? 01:24:55 – … Continue reading →

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236 – Twilight of the Edgelords with Liam Nolan

April 30, 2025 • 107 mins

Eneasz and Liam discuss Scott Alexander’s post “Twilight of the Edgelords,” an exploration of Truth, Morality, and how one balances love of truth vs not destabilizing the world economy and political regime. CORRECTION: Scott did make an explicitly clear pro … Continue reading →

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235 – Gender Differences, with Wes and Jen

April 16, 2025 • 144 mins

Wes Fenza and Jen Kesteloot join us to talk about whether there’s significant personality differences between men and women, and what (if anything) we should do about that. LINKS Wes’s post Men and Women are Not That Different Jacob’s quoted … Continue reading →

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234 – GiveDirectly, with Nick Allardice

April 2, 2025 • 112 mins

We speak to Nick Allardice, President & CEO of GiveDirectly. Afterwards Steven and Eneasz get wrapped up talking about community altruism for a bit. LINKS Give Directly GiveDirectly Tech Innovation Fact Sheet 00:00:05 – Give Directly with Nick Allardice 01:12:19 … Continue reading →

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233 – AI Policy in D.C., with Dave Kasten

March 19, 2025 • 91 mins

Dave Kasten joins us to discuss how AI is being discussed in the US government and gives a rather inspiring and hopeful take. LINKS Narrow Path Center for AI Policy Dave Kasten’s Essay on the Essay Meta on his Substack … Continue reading →

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Bayes Blast 41 – AI Action Plan

March 8, 2025 • 4 mins

The White House wants to hear from you regarding what it should do about AI safety. Now’s your chance to spend a few minutes to make someone read your thoughts on the subject! Submissions are due by midnight EST on … Continue reading →

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232 – The Milton Friedman Theory of Change, with John Bennett

March 5, 2025 • 91 mins

John Bennett discusses Milton Friedman‘s model of policy change. LINKS The Milton Friedman Model of Policy Change John Bennett’s LinkedIn Friedman’s “Capitalism and Freedom” Preface Ross Rheingans-Yoo on Thalidomide at Complex Systems, and at his blog “Every Bay Area Walled … Continue reading →

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Bayes Blast 40 – HPMOR 10 Year Anniversary Parties

February 21, 2025 • 11 mins

Want to run an HPMOR Anniversary Party, or get notified if one’s happening near you? Fill this out!

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Bayes Blast 39 – Ladylike for Autistics

February 5, 2025 • 22 mins

Eneasz tells Jen about Sympathetic Opposition’s How and Why to be Ladylike (For Women with Autism), and the podcast takes a 1-episode break

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230 – Making Dating Not Suck with Jacob Falkovich

January 22, 2025 • 81 mins

Jacob Falkovich on finding a good match and selfless dating LINKS SecondPerson.Dating – why dating sucks and how you will unsuck it Jacob’s post on soccer player skill distribution Go Fuck Someone Selfless Dating Consensual Hostility (re consent culture) steelmanning … Continue reading →

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The Bayesian Conspiracy

Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}243 – Wes Is Not The Monogamy Police, with Wesly Fenza and Jennifer Kesteloot

.css-r6mb8g{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:1;overflow:hidden;}Bayes Blast 44 – Play-By-Post Storytelling

242 – TracingWoodgrains, live at Manifest 2025

Bayes Blast 43 – Die-ing to Intuit Bayes’ Theorem

Bonus – AI Village Hosts An Event For Humans

241 – Doom Debates, with Liron Shapira

240 – How To Live Well With High P(Doom) – with Ben Pace, Brandon Hendrickson, Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg

Bayes Blast 42 – Epic AI Music

239 – SymbyAI

238 – Part 2 of How A Rationalist Becomes A Christian

237 – How A Rationalist Becomes A Christian

236 – Twilight of the Edgelords with Liam Nolan

235 – Gender Differences, with Wes and Jen

234 – GiveDirectly, with Nick Allardice

233 – AI Policy in D.C., with Dave Kasten

Bayes Blast 41 – AI Action Plan

232 – The Milton Friedman Theory of Change, with John Bennett

Bayes Blast 40 – HPMOR 10 Year Anniversary Parties

Bayes Blast 39 – Ladylike for Autistics

230 – Making Dating Not Suck with Jacob Falkovich

Popular Podcasts

243 – Wes Is Not The Monogamy Police, with Wesly Fenza and Jennifer Kesteloot

Bayes Blast 44 – Play-By-Post Storytelling