Politics Politics Politics

The midterms will definitively fall into one of three scenarios. Republicans began this Congress with a 220–215 House majority and hold the Senate 53–47. The environment is brutal for them: Trump’s approval is at 33 percent, 70 percent disapprove of his handling of inflation and the cost of living, and the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot is getting close to eight points. But Republicans have a big money...

Florida is a red state, but it’s never without interest and intrigue. Byron Donalds is going to destroy everybody in the Republican primary for governor. He’s been a Trump loyalist, has Trump’s endorsement, and all the rumors about Casey DeSantis running amounted to a hill of beans. Alex Vindman will likely win the Democratic Senate primary before losing to Ashley Moody in November. But the more interesting races ...

Wisconsin Democrats narrowly chose Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley over Democratic Socialist state representative Francesca Hong in the gubernatorial primary, 39.8 percent to 39.4 percent. It’s close enough that this might be headed to a recount, but it doesn’t appear that Hong won. Crowley, who was endorsed by Governor Tony Evers, will face Trump-endorsed Republican representative Tom Tiffany. The result halte...

Abdul El-Sayed is going to be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Michigan, but the victory was much closer than it looked when I initially planned to call it. With 23 percent of the vote counted, Haley Stevens was barely leading in Oakland County, which she represents in Congress, and the outstanding votes appeared to favor El-Sayed. I thought he was heading toward an eight-to-ten-point win. Instead, the margin narrowed to about ...

Haley Stevens has found her groove. She’s made herself into a plucky underdog, which is hard because she’d been typecast as the spoiled golden girl — Chuck Schumer’s special little lady who was handed everything and had all the money. Mallory McMorrow was fresh, Abdul El-Sayed was exciting, and Stevens looked like she was getting run over. Now her message is: I don’t care what they make fun of me for. ...

Donald Trump says he’s close to deciding whether to launch a massive attack on Iran as the U.S. military expands its campaign aimed at stopping attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon used a B-1 bomber against Revolutionary Guard targets for the first time since the fighting resumed, while Iran continues attacking U.S. bases and shipping. Trump says Tehran wants negotiations, but the White House h...

To date, Trump 2.0 has been defined by everybody appearing to be on the same page and by a sense that the administration kept moving its priorities forward. You might not have liked what those priorities were, but the priorities did get done. The one big beautiful bill was described as an administration’s worth of priorities getting done too soon, and it seems like that might have been prophetic. Trump 1.0 returns when intern...

Donald Trump is going before the nation Thursday night to make a case about election integrity. We don’t know exactly where or how many places he’s going to be shown, but we do know what the case is supposed to be. And the difference between what he says and how he says it is literally the difference between 80% of America agreeing with him and 20% of America agreeing with him.

What Trump really wants to do is demonstrat...

Circle August 4th on your calendar: Michigan is now the number one marquee primary matchup I’m watching. Mallory McMorrow is out of the race as of a couple of weeks ago, and what’s left is a head-to-head contest between the Democratic establishment — or at least what’s left of it — and the insurgent progressive movement. Yes, friends, it’s Haley Stevens versus Abdul El-Sayed, and it’s set t...

Graham Platner is out… but is he? Last night in Maine, he released an 11-minute video that savaged the Democratic establishment and the progressive establishment. He blamed everybody but himself for why he’s suspending his campaign, saying all of his resources were taken away from him. The people who didn’t fight for him — Ro Khanna, Bernie Sanders, Hasan Piker — all wound up in the blast radius.

Every...

European leaders are talking about a rupture with America — a de-Americanization of the continent driven by Donald Trump’s demands that NATO members spend more on defense, his transactional view of alliances, and even his threats to annex Greenland. I don’t blame them for being frustrated. Their citizens hate the guy, and they still have to deal with him.

Trump is never going to be a weepy internationalist reminisc...

We talk all the time about how America is a very young country, and that’s true when you compare us to Europe, Africa, and Asia, where countries are built around lineages, ethnic majorities, and religions. But not America. We’re a melting pot. We’re risk takers. It’s woven into the fabric of the United States that no matter where you are right now, tomorrow can be better than today was, and your life can be ...

The Supreme Court wrapped up its term with three major decisions, and one surprise that turned out not to be a surprise after all. NPR briefly published a report that suggested Justice Samuel Alito was retiring, which would have handed Donald Trump another Supreme Court appointment, but that story was pulled, leaving us to wonder when that announcement might finally land.

The actual rulings were significant enough on their own, thou...

What should have been a bipartisan housing bill touting affordability has instead become a fight over the Save America Act. Representative Anna Paulina Luna is leading a House conservative blockade, freezing routine procedural votes until the Senate takes up the Trump-backed elections bill. The problem is that the Senate has no path forward. The bill doesn’t have the votes, and the Senate isn’t about to let the House di...

All eyes are on New York. The congressional primaries happen tonight, and in a city this Democratic, many of these races will effectively decide who heads to Congress. What I’m watching is a battle between Hakeem Jeffries and Zohran Mamdani. Mamdani is flexing. We’re going to see exactly how much of a kingmaker he is in New York City. Jeffries is backing incumbents like Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat, the chair of th...

Republicans are now arguing that their aggressive mid-decade redistricting campaign could preserve their House majority even in an environment where history is usually not on their side. According to a new memo from the National Republican Congressional Committee, newly redrawn maps have reduced the number of competitive districts and forced Democrats to compete in more Republican-leaning territory. Democrats dismiss that analysis,...

The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran was apparently signed over the weekend, but the text remains a mystery to most. Donald Trump says he’ll release it and even read it himself so nobody can misunderstand it. If it’s such good news, though, why not put it out right now? Israel isn’t a fan of it, nor are those who believe we’ve abandoned the Iranian people by making a deal with t...

The situation with Iran continues to feel like Groundhog Day, except this time, believe it or not, there may actually be movement.

Earlier this week, I mentioned that I had heard from people in the know that the United States military was coiled to strike Iran and was looking for either provocation or justification to resume major military activity. That appeared to happen when Iran shot down an Apache helicopter that was escorting ...

California is inviting questions about its elections because of a problem that is entirely solvable: the state takes too long to count ballots. This LA mayoral race is just the latest example.

Let’s look at what happened. On election night, Karen Bass was at 30 percent of the vote. Spencer Pratt was at 28 percent. Nithya Raman was around 20 percent. Every model from respected vote-modeling people that I saw indicated that Rama...