Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
We discuss the latest finance and digital business news, with a distinctively Australian flavour
Episodes
April 28, 2024 • 9 mins
Against the backcloth of higher rates for longer, many of the Australian banks will provide trading updates over the next couple of weeks. As a group, they currently have the highest set of valuations seen for decades, but then, their earnings have held up relative to expectations. So what is ahead? And are all banks … Continue reading "Banking On Profitability, If You’re Big Enough!"
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April 27, 2024 • 21 mins
This is our latest weekly market update, starting in the US, UK, then Europe, Asia and Australia, and also covering Gold. Oil and Crypto. A comprehensive round-up of what is happening! We are, it seems entering the twilight zone, as the scent of stagflation is spreading, as inflation becomes increasingly sticky, especially in services, while … Continue reading "The Scent Of Stagflation Hangs O...
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April 26, 2024 • 65 mins
Journalist Tarric Brooker and I discuss the latest data, as inflation reasserts itself, and higher for longer seems the play. We discuss the consequences for Australian households, and delve into the charts to understand what is really going on. Here is the link to Tarric’s slides:https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-26th-april-2024 Here is the link to the recent discussion with … Continue reading
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April 25, 2024 • 14 mins
The value of stocks are driven partly by momentum, through perhaps we should really call this hopium, as its really investors betting with their gut, and the cold hard realities of financial results. Markets have been leveraged higher by rate cut expectations and the prospects of AI. But when the numbers come in at results … Continue reading "Looking Past Hopium Towards Real Numbers…"
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April 25, 2024 • 6 mins
The truth is that recent high rise construction in many Australian cities, are riddled with defects, and someone needs to pay for rectification. This surge in high-rise apartment construction happened as building certification was privatised, costs cut and poorly trained workers employed. As a result, we have a litany of increased building flaws and quality … Continue reading "The Crippling Hi...
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April 24, 2024 • 19 mins
Rate cuts anytime this year in Australia, are now hanging by a thread, given the latest inflation data came in hotter than expected, despite the annual rate falling thanks to base effects from months ago, and some changes in the weightings. The upside surprise came via a smaller than expected fall in utilities, but stronger … Continue reading "More Inflation Shenanigans: Will The Next Rate Mov...
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April 23, 2024 • 88 mins
This is an edited version of a live discussion, Adam Stokes, a crypto advocate in which we discussed the recent halving, and what may happen next. Last weekend marked the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, which reduces the supply of new coins. While the short-term impact may be muted, long-term investors remain optimistic due to … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: After The...
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April 22, 2024 • 67 mins
Once again, our Monday evening chat with property insider Edwin Almeida pulls apart the rubbish being spoken though official channels and gets to the heart of the issues facing property buyers, especially first time buyers. You could not make this stuff up!!! Apologies for glitches on the audio tonight, the connection to Edwin was steam … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Prop...
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April 21, 2024 • 14 mins
The combination of high prices and interest rates is seeing affordability become extremely stretched at a time when cost-of-living pressures more generally are also constraining incomes, according to a recent Westpac Survey. In response, would-be buyers are pushing the timing of their planned purchases back – less than 10% expect to transact in the next … Continue reading "Property Buyers’ Pla...
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April 20, 2024 • 25 mins
This is our weekly market update. Another crazy week on markets, as geo-political worries collided with the stronger “higher for longer to fight sticky inflation” mantra, and big-tech looking over-valued. The brief latest flare-up in Middle East tensions seemed contained with a flight to bonds, gold and the US dollar waning. Oil fell. The Dow … Continue reading "Grab A Seat Belt As Market Vola...
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April 19, 2024 • 12 mins
It’s become a bit of a ritual, as members of various committees linked to Central Bank interest rate decisions speak in the open spaces between policy meetings. This week, Washington has been the centre of gravity thanks to the IMF conferences. Markets are hypersensitive at the moment, having been baying for rate cuts all year, … Continue reading "Markets Rethink Rate Cuts As Central Bank Hawk...
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April 18, 2024 • 10 mins
On Thursday Australia’s jobless rate rose to 3.8 per cent in March, which was broadly in line with the market’s expectations, and ahead of crucial March quarter inflation data due next Wednesday. The economy added 27,900 full-time roles and lost 34,500 part-time jobs in the month. This very slight rise in the unemployment figure to … Continue reading "More Data Pushing Rate Cuts Out, as Labour...
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April 18, 2024 • 10 mins
In an increasingly globalized workforce — which intensified in the wake of Covid-19 as nations looked to fill acute worker shortages — New Zealand is a desirable destination. It was ranked the most attractive nation in the OECD for skilled migrants, according to a 2023 report by the Paris-based organization, which rated the country highly … Continue reading "The Real Costs Of Migration!"
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April 17, 2024 • 12 mins
US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has confirmed fears that interest rate cuts in the US would be later rather than sooner as inflation remains stubbornly high. If that price pressure persists, the Fed can keep rates steady for “as long as needed,” Powell said. This came after US retail sales figures for March came … Continue reading "The Sticky Inflation Problem Will Bite Hard!"
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April 16, 2024 • 95 mins
This is an edited version of my latest live discussion, with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth, and Co-Founder of Macrobusiness. We will dive into the latest in property, economics and politics, to try and make sense of what is happening. What’s the future trajectory of the markets? How will Albo’s announcables play … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: In...
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April 15, 2024 • 75 mins
Another deep dive into property and politics with our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest spin on affordability and “hot suburbs”. The drive towards high-rise density has consequences, but even the quality of low-rise is a concern. Meantime, listings are still in the doldrums, while rental availability is largely shot. And … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s ...
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April 14, 2024 • 15 mins
The ABS released data on the total number of dwellings approved in February recently. They say that despite growth in private houses in the month, the total number of dwellings approved fell 1.9 per cent in February (seasonally adjusted), after a 2.5 per cent fall in January. The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell … Continue reading "Government Housing Targets An Impossible Dream...
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April 13, 2024 • 25 mins
This week will I think mark a critical turning point across markets, as the higher for longer mantra finally took root on sticky inflation fears, geo-political tensions flared and the first flush of 1Q US results highlighted pressures on earnings ahead. All this drove a flight to the safest corners of the market such as … Continue reading "The Week The World Changed…"
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April 12, 2024 • 73 mins
Our latest Friday Afternoon chat with journalist Tarric Brooker as we look at the current data, which questions potential rate cuts, and housing trends, as demand stays strong while supply is limited. Below the water line we examine some of the underlying assumptions behind the numbers, and how politics have changed. Worse, the structural issues … Continue reading "It’s Another Fine Mess…...
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April 11, 2024 • 8 mins
Domain has released its Rental Report for March, which delivered more bad news for tenants, on top of the data I released recently which showed three quarters of those renting already have cash-flow issues. Younger families and first-generation Australians are being hit really hard, but as I discussed in my live show, other household categories … Continue reading "Tenants Caught In The Python-...
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