DRUNKENOMICS

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for over 60 days now and end-of-war agreements only seem to stall. However, in the Month of April, markets have soared to new all time highs and have even seen high market cap sectors go on historic win streaks. Is this a really forward thinking reaction, or just a dead cat bounce? On top of that, we're in the middle of a wildly important week with five of the largest US companies reporting ...

What a whirldwind of events that has taken place in the last few weeks. Geopolitical tensions surfacing in Iran is certainly causing a shock to global supply chains and energy prices, putting the Federal Reserve (as well as other central banks) ini handcuffs. However, yield volatility in the fixed income markets seem to be hinting at the idea of less visibility moving forward...whatever that's supposed to mean.

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Sorry for getting this out so late! Had a lot of life events taking place. I promise the next one will be released within 2 days of being recorded! But a lot has happened since our last drink together, namely a GDP print, inflation print, and a rather significant supreme court ruling.

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I guess it really didn't take long for the volatility spike to hit the markets. On the same (or opposite side of) token, it also didn't take long for the volatility to go away. With the current administration moving as fast as they do, it's tough to keep up with all things happening, from Davos, to the Fed, to manufacturing numbers, to executive orders on Credit Cards and Real Estate, staying sober has never been more c...

Happy New Year everyone! Hope you're all ready for our 2026 economic outlook. I should warn you, we were drinking during the recording of this (obviously) so we hardly even remember what was said. Regardless, feel free to hold us to our word and point out what we got wrong in a few weeks/months. You can do so at:

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Hope everyone is having a nice October so far. For a minute there, it was a bit frightening to see some tariff volatility enter the chat; but glad that was short lived. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail moving forward and we can sail off into the year end. In other news, the government shutdown is still going on, agriculture deals are being proposed with Argentina, and the Fed will likely make borrowing cheaper this week.

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Probably the more fitting question is: will it be worth it? A lot of pieces on the economic chess board are moving fast. With A.I. driving efficiency but taking over entry level jobs, to the lackluster labor reports driven by fewer government jobs, then of course, new developments on the tariff front; the looming question will be: will it all be worth it?

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A lot of huge economic data hit the tape last week, with GDP, labor numbers, a Fed meeting, earnings week, etc. All the while, markets seemingly love finding new reasons to push through a new all time high. A lot of frenzies are returning such as crypto, meme stocks, IPOs, etc; how convincing is this market euphoria?

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Probably not what you all were asking for, but we needed to pay some homage to the brilliant career of Warren Buffett. His insights, banter, and philosphy will be sorely missed in the investing world next year...and yes, we will all do what we can to carry the torch. Additionally, a ton of economic data came in since the last time we had a dram together. More to come on that.

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What a time to be alive...it seems like we're 5 tweets away from either a falling knife or new all time highs every other day. Now there's a 90-day pause, a joust between the Fed Chair and the President, and an honest retreat from the U.S. Dollar. I'm sure I'm missing a couple things, but go easy on me.

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It seems like lately, the odds of a recession are climbing, but it also seems like there's so much more to the 'recession' label than GDP. However, it seems like the private sector has been catching on with new trends on how to produce more 'product' to buoy GDP; particularly with private credit & more BNPL ideas. Now what could possibly go wrong with that.

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Apologies for the awkwardness this week, had to do a solo episode due to some scheduling conflicts, but I promise we'll be back in full form next week! Wanted to give a quick recap on the markets now that we're in correction territory and show some historical data. I also may have confused the term "recession" with "bear-market" a few times, so please forgive me. I blame the whiskey. But to clarify, a recession is a widespread decl...

The Trump Administration is obviously moving very fast and the economy / markets are taking it on the chin. With all the uncertainty around, investors are cleary being cautious as they find footing on how trade negotiations will impact businesses & economic growth. Additionally, GDP revisions are start to scatter as economists try to get a handle on tariffs and how that inpacts output. Hope this helps lol.

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Is it just me, or is the idea of creating a Sovereign Wealth Fund a crazy idea? Don't get me wrong, I totally see the appeal in launching one; but the idea of the Government picking favorites just doesn't sit well at all with me. Additionally, we had some other news on inflation, debt delinquincies, and retail sentiment we had to pour one out to.

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