December 21, 2019 • 23 mins
Colin goes over his Blazing 5 picks with RJ Bell of Pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio who tells him which games the wise guys in Vegas agree or disagree with. Here are the games Colin and RJ go over in week 16:
Ravens @ Browns
Bengals @ Dolphins
Steelers @ Jets
Cowboys @ Eagles
Chiefs @ Bears
Plus, Colin reveals a 6th bonus pick exclusive to this podcast and they even talk some Ohio State vs Clemson
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Hi, everybody, Welcome to our Saturday morning podcast. Been an
interesting year for me. I'm at fifty two percent. I
don't believe in, you know, getting bad breaks and bad beats,
although Seattle was one for me last week. That's life.
Let's go to my blazing five picks this week. Let's
(00:22):
blaze it off, fired up. It's Collins Blazing five, Ravens
and Browns. You know, we talk a lot about Baltimore's offense.
I'm gonna take the Ravens minus nine, ten, whatever the
line is, it's now nine. I'm gonna take Baltimore. But
their defense has been absolutely sensational since Marcus Peters arrived.
They're getting a pass rush during their ten game winning streak,
(00:43):
their first, second or third in virtually everything, including quarterback hits.
Per game, they hit the quarterback seven times, and Baker
Mayfield has looked very gunshy in the last six weeks.
He's tired of getting hit. Cleveland is a team that
allows allows you to run the football. One hundred and
thirty five yards per game is what teams average on
(01:06):
the ground. Remember the first time they played Baltimore didn't
have Marcus Peters. Still trying to define their offense in Cleveland.
Oh my lord, Nick Chubb was unbelievable. The moral of
the story September is not December. I like Baltimore to
win going away thirty three to twenty. I think it
(01:27):
could potentially be worse than that. Bengals it Dolphins really
like Miami here. It is close to a pickum or
Miami plus one. Miami's at home on a holiday weekend,
Cincinnati's coming to town. I don't think Cincinnati's that well coached.
I think Miami is not great, but well coached. After
that disastrous start, Brian Flores comes in new team. He's
(01:50):
trying to figure out his personnel. You no, last seven games,
they're three and four. Last seven games, they're three and four,
and by the way, in their last ten, they're seven
and three against the spread. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who can move
a little. If you go look at him, since Week nine,
he's got twice as many touchdown passes his interceptions. He's
completing about sixty three percent of his throws. Now, he's
(02:10):
a great transition quarterback. He's not a franchise guy, but
you can use him this year. He's a gamer, he's tough,
he can move, went to Harvard. Harvard. I think Miami
wins this game. I think it's one of the rare
times that I love what is considered a bad football team.
I'm gonna take the Dolphins to win that thing. What
did I pick the score at twenty four twenty? There
(02:32):
we go, Sorry, pieces of paper in the way. Steelers
at Jets. I like the Jets plus three. Listen, Sam
Darnold goes comments against New England. Oh my god, sell
your stock. Sam Darnold's actually even in losses, playing very
very well. Since Week nine, Sam Darnold sixty two percent
completion percentage, twelve tents, four picks, ninety five pass are writing,
(02:54):
two rushing touchdowns. That's where the worst offensive line in
football in my opinion, he's got to be one of
the bottom two. He's not the Devlin Hodges for the Steelers.
I love their front seven, but Folks, in the four
games he's played this year, she's got more interceptions than touchdowns.
They give you one offensive touchdown a week. That's just
what Pittsburgh gives you with Devlin Hodges. The Jets have
(03:14):
shown at home, remember the Dallas game. They've had. They've
had games at home where they're pretty impressive, they're fairly healthy,
and I think Pittsburgh's been exposed as a totally limited offense.
I'm gonna take the Jets to win it outright. Twenty six,
twenty three Cowboys at Eagles, Dallas minus two. I'm gonna
(03:36):
take him here to number. If it was three and
a half, I'd probably stay away. Okay, listen, Carson Winz
is having a much better year than everybody says. But
here's the thing about Philadelphia. They can't beat you over
the top. That you can't do it. Last couple of
weeks against average teams. Their defense can't take the ball away.
This is what worries me. If you'd just let Dak
(03:57):
do his little comeback patterns and Zeke run the ball,
Dallas could dominate time of possession. Last couple of weeks.
Philadelphia defensively has been awful. Dallas is five and oh
this year when they rush for over one hundred and
seventy two yards, and Zeke has owned the Philadelphia Eagles
defensive front. I love Fletcher Cox, but he hasn't had
(04:20):
a great year by Fletcher Cox standards. The Cowboys offensive
line is healthy. This comes down to me the Dallas
staff gets fired if they don't win. There is unbelievable urgency.
I think Dack's injury actually forces Dallas to not get
cute and run the football. I think Dallas wins by
a touchdown here, Chief said Bears. I'll easily swallow the
(04:44):
points here. I'm gonna take Kansas City minus six. What's
Chicago playing for. Kansas City has sneakily become the second
hottest team in the league after Baltimore. Last four games
four no, four no against the spread. Their defense too.
We talk about offense. Since the bye week, their defense
(05:04):
has been really good. Their defense is number one in
points per game allowed, fifth in yards allowed. Here's the
thing about the Bears. The Bears can win games, but
in their last ten games they're two and eight against
the spread. I mean, when they do win, it's ugly.
The game has to be played a certain way for
Chicago to win. And I don't think right now, Kansas City,
I don't think you can marginalize them. I think this
(05:27):
is I don't think Andy read privately is like we
got healthy at the right time, we got hot at
the right time. And this is a team that went
into New England and won a football game. And I
didn't think Kansas City played flawless football. I thought situationally
they weren't great in New England. I thought they were
kind of choppy. Now they go into a Chicago team
that's not as good, not planned for a ton. I
(05:49):
like Kansas City to win and cover thirty to twenty one.
So there's my blazing five picks, all the odds provided
by Fox. Bet. I'll take the favored Ravens, I'll take
the favorite Cowboys and the favorite Chiefs, and I'll take
the underdog Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets. All right,
let's bring in pregame dot COM's RJ Bell, host straight
(06:11):
out of Vegas, Fox Sports Radio six to seven Eastern
his Twitter account at rj in Vegas. All right, let's
start with this one. You know me, I don't like
double digit favorites, but I do believe RJ that you
get these teams, the twenty fifteen Carolina Panthers, the Seahawks
the year they won the Super Bowl. They get hot,
(06:33):
they're healthy, and the league's trying to play catch up
with their energy. Ravens minus ten at the Browns. I
even get a little revenge on Baltimore's side. I just
think Baltimore this is a strange and unique every five
year situation. Browns don't have much to play for. I'm
(06:53):
gonna lay the ten here with Baltimore. What would the
wise guys think? Surprisingly agreement here? And here's the thing.
When there's a big favorite and the motivation is obvious,
there's no problem with favorites. Okay, In fact, in the
suit or in the playoffs, favorites do really well, especially
big ones. So what ends up happening is can you
(07:17):
figure out is a team motivated? And I think Baltimore
off of that loss an embarrassment in division. Oh Man
hardball loves to make statements. I think this could be
a total annihilation. I only got one question. How in
the heck did the Browns do what they did the
first game? Well, it's interesting because at the time we
(07:39):
thought the Browns were pretty good in Baltimore was only
two to one, so it was not it was not
a shot to our system. We thought, Oh Baker had
a good day. They did it by dominating Nick Chubb
had a huge day and they took time of possession
away from Baltimore and Lamar had to play from behind,
had two picks. So it's funny. We look at it
(08:02):
now and we're shocked, But if you go back to
that week, RJ, we didn't know Baltimore was Baltimore. They
haven't lost since then. In fact, the Orioles have a
more recent loss than the Ravens. But Cleveland was that.
We thought that was pretty interesting then, INVERTI talented. Yeah,
I agree with you there, but in hindsight, the offense
was what it is now and the Browns stopped it.
(08:24):
And even though the defense has improved greatly since the trade,
and with Smith back cornerback, I agree. Listen, you got agreement.
It's just really confusing to me how the one time
this entire year Baltimore was dominated it was against the Browns.
Should be noted Myles Garrett would be a really nice
piece to have for Cleveland this weekend. Their most athletic
(08:47):
defensive end. He's obviously still out for the seasons. Bengals
at the Dolphins, I'm gonna take Miami. It's essentially a
pick him. Not all bad teams are the same. I
think the Dolphins have a plan draft picks. They're developing players.
They obviously have to rebuild their defense. But I think
I think Brian Flores, I think this team has some momentum.
(09:10):
I think they like their coach, They're at home, and again,
not all bad teams are even I like the Dolphins.
Actually they are a tough out. I'll take them here.
What would the wise guys say? Love it? Love it?
One of my favorite picks of the week, And at
first glance, I didn't really understand this line because even
(09:31):
though Miami doesn't have a great home field, let's call
it too even. Well, are we saying the Bengals are
clearly better? It doesn't make any sense. I think that's
the value you're seeing. Here's what I figured out. A
lot of people remember Miami just getting annihilated early, and
they got annihilated last week, and a lot of these
really decent performances along the way. They didn't win the games.
(09:55):
So if you bet, maybe you were a little more
aware of it if you bet that game. Otherwise it
Dolphins are just one of the worst teams. You mentioned something.
I don't think Miami is all worried about the second
pick or the third pick. I think that the momentum
they have is something they value greatly. With a young
coach is getting a lot of accolades. Last thing, since
(10:19):
he probably the worst coach team in the league. Down
in Miami holiday weekend distractions, Love love love Miami Steelers
at the Jets. I'll take New York plus three. First
of all, the Jets at home of generally outside of
the Patriot game, been pretty feisty with Duck Hodges. Pittsburgh
is a completely limited offense. They may win this game,
(10:43):
but it's just a number here. Sam Darnold, despite losing
big to Baltimore, has not been the problem. He gives
you about one oh my god throw a week, but
Darnald with a really bad old line, has been very effective. Again,
the optics with the Jets are worse than reality. They're
not a terrible team. They've had a couple of games
(11:04):
Baltimore in New England where they're simply outclassed. I'm going
to take the points with the Jets at home. What
do the wise guys think gonna give you a slight agreement?
I am not near as optimistic about Darnald about the
Jets as you are. I don't make the excuses you
do about I mean to me, there's no doubt Darnold
(11:28):
has potential. What I wonder is and let me ask
you what quarterback has been this average in his second
year at the end and became an elite quarterback. Well,
I mean, it's very fair questions. I think he has
the worst offensive line in the league, and the question
becomes can he overcome the Jets dysfunction. I've said this
(11:52):
about Baker from day one. I don't think Baker's talented
enough to overcome dysfunction. I don't think Sam Darnold has
ever been a natural thrower as gifted athletically as Wentz
or Lamar Jackson. But I think he's good and I
think the Jets now have a legitimate general manager. So
I do think quarterbacks get better. I thought Russell Wilson
(12:13):
in year three popped to now he's an MVP level quarterback.
So I do think it's a it's a slow progression,
and that was with Pete Carroll, by the way, that
was with John Snyder. So I think the questions about
Darnold are fair. But I just think athletically he's the
kind of quarterback I want for the next twelve years,
which is can make the throws, take the hits, and
(12:34):
make plays with his feet. And if you're right even
a little bit this week, you gotta like the Jets
because if you look at Pittsburgh, now, let's go back
seven games, they've only scored more than one offensive touchdown
one time. Yes, I mean, so this is a team
and they haven't played a bunch of great defenses in
that period. Yeah, they're true enough, true enough. I mean,
(12:57):
you know, obviously they played the Ravens really well. Yes,
you know, Buffalo, you could say they played decently, though
they lost the game they should. You know, they were
favored in so to me, they got lucky with some
close wins, and they got lucky with some turnovers. And
you can say, oh, that's the way good defenses, doe.
But really, there's not a great correlation between a bunch
(13:19):
of turnovers in a great defense. So I'm going to
agree with you because I think Pittsburgh is overrated. A
Greeman Jets, I'll tell I have. I don't take the
Cowboys much. I really don't. In the Blazing five, I
think they're an overbet team. I do like them as
long as the number is under three Cowboys minus two
(13:39):
and a half. Carson Wentz has had a better year
than people think. But I think the Cowboys staff the
job is on the line. I think the weather place
to them. It's not ugly Philadelphia weather. It's mid forties.
I don't I think Philadelphia has got major issues on
the outside. They've got no receivers healthy, and I just
(14:00):
struggle to think that Dallas, arguably after Baltimore, the healthiest
team in the NFL, who kind of found their way
last week running the ball. I think they went by
about a field goal or more. What of the wise
guys think big disagreement here, big one? Then let's do
a little simple math. So last week you may recall
(14:20):
you had your biggest disagreement of the decade when you
had the Rams, right, So I got smoked. So the
Rams are four and a half points better than Dallas.
That was the perception because it was in Dallas. Three
points are home field and the Rams were one and
a half. Okay, Now in this game, let's just call
two and a half is the line. So that means
(14:44):
Dallas is five and a half points better. So this
is amazing. So Dallas is five and a half points
better than the Eagles, But the Rams are four and
a half points better than them. So that means the
Rams are ten points better than the Eagles. Does that
sound right? No? No, what's happened is Dallas was way
(15:04):
underrated last week. But I think it swung too far
the other way. I mean, if this game were in Dallas, Colin,
the line would be eight and a half. I mean,
does that seem like, Oh that's too cheat? Dallas only
by eight and a half and the road favorites are
tricky like that. Now, listen, Dallas has played well in Philly.
(15:25):
Last thing I'll say is this, if it's a tight
game in the fourth, wouldn't you agree the Eagles are
maybe the best team over the last three seasons. You
start back playoffs against the Falcons and they went all
the way to the super Bowl last year. Remember they
went to the Rams as ten point underdogs, won that
game and a must win. This is probably the best
(15:46):
team at close games we've seen over the last couple
of years. And Dallas is gonna know that Jerry Jones
is staring down on him. So to me, a lot
of my liking Philly here is I don't trust Dallas
in a tight game for all the marbles, and I
certainly do trust the Eagles. Yeah, I know Philly, and
(16:06):
you know I'm a huge Carson Wentz fan, So if
it's close despite his lack of weapons, that's a good
point three and one agreement. Finally, you know, we know
Baltimore is hot. I think the Chiefs in the last
three weeks that defense has gotten better. Only have to
give up five at the Bears. Not sure what Chicago
plays for. Kansas City is sneaky hot right now, and
(16:29):
the defense is gotten better, the secondary's gotten better. So
I'm gonna take the Chiefs. I like the number minus
five six wherever you get it. What are the wise
guys think? I'm going to agree with you just because
it's going to allow me to bring up how right
I was about Kansas City. Yes, you were on him
about was it three weeks ago? Yeah? About three weeks ago?
And to me, I think the defensive side you said it,
(16:53):
that's the key here is if you look at it
and I think I heard this on your show actually,
and I loved it. Since the bye Kansas City has
had the best defense on a points per game basis,
So since their own buy that was the case. Now
if they even if they're the tenth best defense, let's
(17:14):
just say, with that offense, this is probably the second
favorite behind Baltimore. And I don't know if the defense
is really that good, but man, the stats say they
are right now though a small sample size. You flip
on the other side, the Bears. I mean, I'm guessing
you saw Trubisky actually critique in Naggy. I mean, to me,
(17:38):
if there's any sense of like, oh my gosh, this
is an example of the team struggling to find answers.
I can't imagine that locker room known Trubisky is making
that first round money and has been carried by the team,
and I was critiquing the coach. I think that's a
bad sign. Another reason I agree with you on Casey. Finally,
(18:00):
our bonus pick we do on Saturdays. I'm going to
stay away from this game on my Blazing five because
I just chose to stay away because Dalvin Cook, if
he's healthy, I think Minnesota is the much better roster
with a much better coach. I have questions about Matt Lafleur.
Green Bay does not in the second half adjust They're
(18:20):
one of the worst third quarter offenses at adjusting in
the league. But without Dalvin Cook, if the numbers five
to five and a half, I'd probably go green Bay.
What would the wise guys say? Disagreement here, though I
personally think this number is getting out of hand. And
this is such a good example Colin where it was
so much easier ten fifteen years ago to beat Vegas
(18:45):
because the line on this game fifteen years ago would
have been three. And I would have loved Minnesota because
it would have been like, Wow, green Bay's got such
the better record, or you know, clearly the better record,
Minnesota's at home, make it three. Has it changed in
Vegas because they don't care if the squares bat bat
(19:06):
on green Bay. They'll take all kinds as long as
they're confident they're on the right side. And remember when
you bet ten to win eleven, which bookies do, you
only got to be right forty eight percent of the
time to make a bunch of money. So they're very
confident the Minnesota is better. And because of that, they're
(19:26):
putting a line out there that is going to have
in no negativity here, but it's gonna have every square
in town saying I get Aaron Rodgers and all those
points against Oh my gosh, yeah, you know that Cousins
isn't good in prime time? Right? The fact this number
is what it is, and you always talk about these games,
(19:47):
you say, oh, this number doesn't make sense, which is
a sign that Vegas wants you to bat green Bay? Right,
So looking at this, wouldn't you agree the average Joe
in the bar is taking green Bay? Yeah? Yeah, Aaron
Rodgers plus five and a half. It's a guaranteed winner,
and exactly, And think about it. Why would Vegas give
(20:08):
them such a juicy bet unless they wanted them to
make that bet. Yeah. No, they're begging you to bet
the Packers and you did it. Yeah, well I almost
did it. RJ. Bell, who's nice enough to come on.
You've been battling influenza this week, you know a little
Let's just say it's been a tough week. But I listen,
this is one of my favorite things to do each week,
(20:29):
and I'm here no matter what. By the way, I'll
just throw you a little bone. Clemson is my biggest
bet ever in college I like Clemson over Ohio State.
I know you hate that, but I'll just throw this out.
Clemson has played sec Speed five times in the last
two years, with four blowout wins. Ohio State has played
(20:53):
big ten speed. Now they've got to shift gears and
a defense the Buckeyes over the last month has not
been as formidable the Buckey's defense. I think it's a wild,
high scoring affair and I'm swallowing the minus two with Clemson.
Your initial reaction, I think you're on the sharp side.
(21:14):
And the reason I say that is, let's use the
same logic calling that we would about who's the publican
to like here? Oh? God, yeah, they're gonna say. I
mean one, Ohio State had the best ats margin in
all of college football, meaning they covered the spread by
the most points in aggregate over the course of the year.
So that means a lot of Ohigh State betters won
(21:37):
a lot of money. Right number two. What happened is
that they were dominant and they not only covered, but
it looked like they weren't even gained. Right, Michigan didn't
even look like they were competitive. Now they're getting points
against the Clemson team. What did most people remember about them?
North Carolina? That's what they remember. I think the case
(21:57):
could be made. Clemson has had one of the best,
if not the best season ever of a defending champion.
In fact, if you actually look at their games except
for North Carolina, if you would give them an extra
field goal, just three points in two different games, they
would have covered every game this year except North Carolina.
It's hard to do. I remember Pete Carol's Trojans had
(22:20):
a lot of ugly Saturday wins because of apathy and dominance. Clemson,
it doesn't matter. They're that much better than everybody on
that side. And last thing about Clemson as a program,
all of these successes, Dabbo Sweeney had to head against Saban.
It's been with not great recruiting classes. And I know
you're kind of an aficionado of this. Clemson first time
(22:43):
ever they had a top five class. They had the
number one class in some accounting. So think about that.
They were able to be and go toe to toe
with anybody in the country, include in Alabama and Sabin
when they were recruiting twelve, fifth, teen that range. Now
they're number one. Lookout. R J. Bell, buddy, it's great
(23:06):
talking to you. Have a great holiday season, A you too, call,
and I appreciate it all right,
Hi, everybody, Welcome to our Saturday morning podcast. Been an
interesting year for me. I'm at fifty two percent. I
don't believe in, you know, getting bad breaks and bad beats,
although Seattle was one for me last week. That's life.
Let's go to my blazing five picks this week. Let's
(00:22):
blaze it off, fired up. It's Collins Blazing five, Ravens
and Browns. You know, we talk a lot about Baltimore's offense.
I'm gonna take the Ravens minus nine, ten, whatever the
line is, it's now nine. I'm gonna take Baltimore. But
their defense has been absolutely sensational since Marcus Peters arrived.
They're getting a pass rush during their ten game winning streak,
(00:43):
their first, second or third in virtually everything, including quarterback hits.
Per game, they hit the quarterback seven times, and Baker
Mayfield has looked very gunshy in the last six weeks.
He's tired of getting hit. Cleveland is a team that
allows allows you to run the football. One hundred and
thirty five yards per game is what teams average on
(01:06):
the ground. Remember the first time they played Baltimore didn't
have Marcus Peters. Still trying to define their offense in Cleveland.
Oh my lord, Nick Chubb was unbelievable. The moral of
the story September is not December. I like Baltimore to
win going away thirty three to twenty. I think it
(01:27):
could potentially be worse than that. Bengals it Dolphins really
like Miami here. It is close to a pickum or
Miami plus one. Miami's at home on a holiday weekend,
Cincinnati's coming to town. I don't think Cincinnati's that well coached.
I think Miami is not great, but well coached. After
that disastrous start, Brian Flores comes in new team. He's
(01:50):
trying to figure out his personnel. You no, last seven games,
they're three and four. Last seven games, they're three and four,
and by the way, in their last ten, they're seven
and three against the spread. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who can move
a little. If you go look at him, since Week nine,
he's got twice as many touchdown passes his interceptions. He's
completing about sixty three percent of his throws. Now, he's
(02:10):
a great transition quarterback. He's not a franchise guy, but
you can use him this year. He's a gamer, he's tough,
he can move, went to Harvard. Harvard. I think Miami
wins this game. I think it's one of the rare
times that I love what is considered a bad football team.
I'm gonna take the Dolphins to win that thing. What
did I pick the score at twenty four twenty? There
(02:32):
we go, Sorry, pieces of paper in the way. Steelers
at Jets. I like the Jets plus three. Listen, Sam
Darnold goes comments against New England. Oh my god, sell
your stock. Sam Darnold's actually even in losses, playing very
very well. Since Week nine, Sam Darnold sixty two percent
completion percentage, twelve tents, four picks, ninety five pass are writing,
(02:54):
two rushing touchdowns. That's where the worst offensive line in
football in my opinion, he's got to be one of
the bottom two. He's not the Devlin Hodges for the Steelers.
I love their front seven, but Folks, in the four
games he's played this year, she's got more interceptions than touchdowns.
They give you one offensive touchdown a week. That's just
what Pittsburgh gives you with Devlin Hodges. The Jets have
(03:14):
shown at home, remember the Dallas game. They've had. They've
had games at home where they're pretty impressive, they're fairly healthy,
and I think Pittsburgh's been exposed as a totally limited offense.
I'm gonna take the Jets to win it outright. Twenty six,
twenty three Cowboys at Eagles, Dallas minus two. I'm gonna
(03:36):
take him here to number. If it was three and
a half, I'd probably stay away. Okay, listen, Carson Winz
is having a much better year than everybody says. But
here's the thing about Philadelphia. They can't beat you over
the top. That you can't do it. Last couple of
weeks against average teams. Their defense can't take the ball away.
This is what worries me. If you'd just let Dak
(03:57):
do his little comeback patterns and Zeke run the ball,
Dallas could dominate time of possession. Last couple of weeks.
Philadelphia defensively has been awful. Dallas is five and oh
this year when they rush for over one hundred and
seventy two yards, and Zeke has owned the Philadelphia Eagles
defensive front. I love Fletcher Cox, but he hasn't had
(04:20):
a great year by Fletcher Cox standards. The Cowboys offensive
line is healthy. This comes down to me the Dallas
staff gets fired if they don't win. There is unbelievable urgency.
I think Dack's injury actually forces Dallas to not get
cute and run the football. I think Dallas wins by
a touchdown here, Chief said Bears. I'll easily swallow the
(04:44):
points here. I'm gonna take Kansas City minus six. What's
Chicago playing for. Kansas City has sneakily become the second
hottest team in the league after Baltimore. Last four games
four no, four no against the spread. Their defense too.
We talk about offense. Since the bye week, their defense
(05:04):
has been really good. Their defense is number one in
points per game allowed, fifth in yards allowed. Here's the
thing about the Bears. The Bears can win games, but
in their last ten games they're two and eight against
the spread. I mean, when they do win, it's ugly.
The game has to be played a certain way for
Chicago to win. And I don't think right now, Kansas City,
I don't think you can marginalize them. I think this
(05:27):
is I don't think Andy read privately is like we
got healthy at the right time, we got hot at
the right time. And this is a team that went
into New England and won a football game. And I
didn't think Kansas City played flawless football. I thought situationally
they weren't great in New England. I thought they were
kind of choppy. Now they go into a Chicago team
that's not as good, not planned for a ton. I
(05:49):
like Kansas City to win and cover thirty to twenty one.
So there's my blazing five picks, all the odds provided
by Fox. Bet. I'll take the favored Ravens, I'll take
the favorite Cowboys and the favorite Chiefs, and I'll take
the underdog Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets. All right,
let's bring in pregame dot COM's RJ Bell, host straight
(06:11):
out of Vegas, Fox Sports Radio six to seven Eastern
his Twitter account at rj in Vegas. All right, let's
start with this one. You know me, I don't like
double digit favorites, but I do believe RJ that you
get these teams, the twenty fifteen Carolina Panthers, the Seahawks
the year they won the Super Bowl. They get hot,
(06:33):
they're healthy, and the league's trying to play catch up
with their energy. Ravens minus ten at the Browns. I
even get a little revenge on Baltimore's side. I just
think Baltimore this is a strange and unique every five
year situation. Browns don't have much to play for. I'm
(06:53):
gonna lay the ten here with Baltimore. What would the
wise guys think? Surprisingly agreement here? And here's the thing.
When there's a big favorite and the motivation is obvious,
there's no problem with favorites. Okay, In fact, in the
suit or in the playoffs, favorites do really well, especially
big ones. So what ends up happening is can you
(07:17):
figure out is a team motivated? And I think Baltimore
off of that loss an embarrassment in division. Oh Man
hardball loves to make statements. I think this could be
a total annihilation. I only got one question. How in
the heck did the Browns do what they did the
first game? Well, it's interesting because at the time we
(07:39):
thought the Browns were pretty good in Baltimore was only
two to one, so it was not it was not
a shot to our system. We thought, Oh Baker had
a good day. They did it by dominating Nick Chubb
had a huge day and they took time of possession
away from Baltimore and Lamar had to play from behind,
had two picks. So it's funny. We look at it
(08:02):
now and we're shocked, But if you go back to
that week, RJ, we didn't know Baltimore was Baltimore. They
haven't lost since then. In fact, the Orioles have a
more recent loss than the Ravens. But Cleveland was that.
We thought that was pretty interesting then, INVERTI talented. Yeah,
I agree with you there, but in hindsight, the offense
was what it is now and the Browns stopped it.
(08:24):
And even though the defense has improved greatly since the trade,
and with Smith back cornerback, I agree. Listen, you got agreement.
It's just really confusing to me how the one time
this entire year Baltimore was dominated it was against the Browns.
Should be noted Myles Garrett would be a really nice
piece to have for Cleveland this weekend. Their most athletic
(08:47):
defensive end. He's obviously still out for the seasons. Bengals
at the Dolphins, I'm gonna take Miami. It's essentially a
pick him. Not all bad teams are the same. I
think the Dolphins have a plan draft picks. They're developing players.
They obviously have to rebuild their defense. But I think
I think Brian Flores, I think this team has some momentum.
(09:10):
I think they like their coach, They're at home, and again,
not all bad teams are even I like the Dolphins.
Actually they are a tough out. I'll take them here.
What would the wise guys say? Love it? Love it?
One of my favorite picks of the week, And at
first glance, I didn't really understand this line because even
(09:31):
though Miami doesn't have a great home field, let's call
it too even. Well, are we saying the Bengals are
clearly better? It doesn't make any sense. I think that's
the value you're seeing. Here's what I figured out. A
lot of people remember Miami just getting annihilated early, and
they got annihilated last week, and a lot of these
really decent performances along the way. They didn't win the games.
(09:55):
So if you bet, maybe you were a little more
aware of it if you bet that game. Otherwise it
Dolphins are just one of the worst teams. You mentioned something.
I don't think Miami is all worried about the second
pick or the third pick. I think that the momentum
they have is something they value greatly. With a young
coach is getting a lot of accolades. Last thing, since
(10:19):
he probably the worst coach team in the league. Down
in Miami holiday weekend distractions, Love love love Miami Steelers
at the Jets. I'll take New York plus three. First
of all, the Jets at home of generally outside of
the Patriot game, been pretty feisty with Duck Hodges. Pittsburgh
is a completely limited offense. They may win this game,
(10:43):
but it's just a number here. Sam Darnold, despite losing
big to Baltimore, has not been the problem. He gives
you about one oh my god throw a week, but
Darnald with a really bad old line, has been very effective. Again,
the optics with the Jets are worse than reality. They're
not a terrible team. They've had a couple of games
(11:04):
Baltimore in New England where they're simply outclassed. I'm going
to take the points with the Jets at home. What
do the wise guys think gonna give you a slight agreement?
I am not near as optimistic about Darnald about the
Jets as you are. I don't make the excuses you
do about I mean to me, there's no doubt Darnold
(11:28):
has potential. What I wonder is and let me ask
you what quarterback has been this average in his second
year at the end and became an elite quarterback. Well,
I mean, it's very fair questions. I think he has
the worst offensive line in the league, and the question
becomes can he overcome the Jets dysfunction. I've said this
(11:52):
about Baker from day one. I don't think Baker's talented
enough to overcome dysfunction. I don't think Sam Darnold has
ever been a natural thrower as gifted athletically as Wentz
or Lamar Jackson. But I think he's good and I
think the Jets now have a legitimate general manager. So
I do think quarterbacks get better. I thought Russell Wilson
(12:13):
in year three popped to now he's an MVP level quarterback.
So I do think it's a it's a slow progression,
and that was with Pete Carroll, by the way, that
was with John Snyder. So I think the questions about
Darnold are fair. But I just think athletically he's the
kind of quarterback I want for the next twelve years,
which is can make the throws, take the hits, and
(12:34):
make plays with his feet. And if you're right even
a little bit this week, you gotta like the Jets
because if you look at Pittsburgh, now, let's go back
seven games, they've only scored more than one offensive touchdown
one time. Yes, I mean, so this is a team
and they haven't played a bunch of great defenses in
that period. Yeah, they're true enough, true enough. I mean,
(12:57):
you know, obviously they played the Ravens really well. Yes,
you know, Buffalo, you could say they played decently, though
they lost the game they should. You know, they were
favored in so to me, they got lucky with some
close wins, and they got lucky with some turnovers. And
you can say, oh, that's the way good defenses, doe.
But really, there's not a great correlation between a bunch
(13:19):
of turnovers in a great defense. So I'm going to
agree with you because I think Pittsburgh is overrated. A
Greeman Jets, I'll tell I have. I don't take the
Cowboys much. I really don't. In the Blazing five, I
think they're an overbet team. I do like them as
long as the number is under three Cowboys minus two
(13:39):
and a half. Carson Wentz has had a better year
than people think. But I think the Cowboys staff the
job is on the line. I think the weather place
to them. It's not ugly Philadelphia weather. It's mid forties.
I don't I think Philadelphia has got major issues on
the outside. They've got no receivers healthy, and I just
(14:00):
struggle to think that Dallas, arguably after Baltimore, the healthiest
team in the NFL, who kind of found their way
last week running the ball. I think they went by
about a field goal or more. What of the wise
guys think big disagreement here, big one? Then let's do
a little simple math. So last week you may recall
(14:20):
you had your biggest disagreement of the decade when you
had the Rams, right, So I got smoked. So the
Rams are four and a half points better than Dallas.
That was the perception because it was in Dallas. Three
points are home field and the Rams were one and
a half. Okay, Now in this game, let's just call
two and a half is the line. So that means
(14:44):
Dallas is five and a half points better. So this
is amazing. So Dallas is five and a half points
better than the Eagles, But the Rams are four and
a half points better than them. So that means the
Rams are ten points better than the Eagles. Does that
sound right? No? No, what's happened is Dallas was way
(15:04):
underrated last week. But I think it swung too far
the other way. I mean, if this game were in Dallas, Colin,
the line would be eight and a half. I mean,
does that seem like, Oh that's too cheat? Dallas only
by eight and a half and the road favorites are
tricky like that. Now, listen, Dallas has played well in Philly.
(15:25):
Last thing I'll say is this, if it's a tight
game in the fourth, wouldn't you agree the Eagles are
maybe the best team over the last three seasons. You
start back playoffs against the Falcons and they went all
the way to the super Bowl last year. Remember they
went to the Rams as ten point underdogs, won that
game and a must win. This is probably the best
(15:46):
team at close games we've seen over the last couple
of years. And Dallas is gonna know that Jerry Jones
is staring down on him. So to me, a lot
of my liking Philly here is I don't trust Dallas
in a tight game for all the marbles, and I
certainly do trust the Eagles. Yeah, I know Philly, and
(16:06):
you know I'm a huge Carson Wentz fan, So if
it's close despite his lack of weapons, that's a good
point three and one agreement. Finally, you know, we know
Baltimore is hot. I think the Chiefs in the last
three weeks that defense has gotten better. Only have to
give up five at the Bears. Not sure what Chicago
plays for. Kansas City is sneaky hot right now, and
(16:29):
the defense is gotten better, the secondary's gotten better. So
I'm gonna take the Chiefs. I like the number minus
five six wherever you get it. What are the wise
guys think? I'm going to agree with you just because
it's going to allow me to bring up how right
I was about Kansas City. Yes, you were on him
about was it three weeks ago? Yeah? About three weeks ago?
And to me, I think the defensive side you said it,
(16:53):
that's the key here is if you look at it
and I think I heard this on your show actually,
and I loved it. Since the bye Kansas City has
had the best defense on a points per game basis,
So since their own buy that was the case. Now
if they even if they're the tenth best defense, let's
(17:14):
just say, with that offense, this is probably the second
favorite behind Baltimore. And I don't know if the defense
is really that good, but man, the stats say they
are right now though a small sample size. You flip
on the other side, the Bears. I mean, I'm guessing
you saw Trubisky actually critique in Naggy. I mean, to me,
(17:38):
if there's any sense of like, oh my gosh, this
is an example of the team struggling to find answers.
I can't imagine that locker room known Trubisky is making
that first round money and has been carried by the team,
and I was critiquing the coach. I think that's a
bad sign. Another reason I agree with you on Casey. Finally,
(18:00):
our bonus pick we do on Saturdays. I'm going to
stay away from this game on my Blazing five because
I just chose to stay away because Dalvin Cook, if
he's healthy, I think Minnesota is the much better roster
with a much better coach. I have questions about Matt Lafleur.
Green Bay does not in the second half adjust They're
(18:20):
one of the worst third quarter offenses at adjusting in
the league. But without Dalvin Cook, if the numbers five
to five and a half, I'd probably go green Bay.
What would the wise guys say? Disagreement here, though I
personally think this number is getting out of hand. And
this is such a good example Colin where it was
so much easier ten fifteen years ago to beat Vegas
(18:45):
because the line on this game fifteen years ago would
have been three. And I would have loved Minnesota because
it would have been like, Wow, green Bay's got such
the better record, or you know, clearly the better record,
Minnesota's at home, make it three. Has it changed in
Vegas because they don't care if the squares bat bat
(19:06):
on green Bay. They'll take all kinds as long as
they're confident they're on the right side. And remember when
you bet ten to win eleven, which bookies do, you
only got to be right forty eight percent of the
time to make a bunch of money. So they're very
confident the Minnesota is better. And because of that, they're
(19:26):
putting a line out there that is going to have
in no negativity here, but it's gonna have every square
in town saying I get Aaron Rodgers and all those
points against Oh my gosh, yeah, you know that Cousins
isn't good in prime time? Right? The fact this number
is what it is, and you always talk about these games,
(19:47):
you say, oh, this number doesn't make sense, which is
a sign that Vegas wants you to bat green Bay? Right,
So looking at this, wouldn't you agree the average Joe
in the bar is taking green Bay? Yeah? Yeah, Aaron
Rodgers plus five and a half. It's a guaranteed winner,
and exactly, And think about it. Why would Vegas give
(20:08):
them such a juicy bet unless they wanted them to
make that bet. Yeah. No, they're begging you to bet
the Packers and you did it. Yeah, well I almost
did it. RJ. Bell, who's nice enough to come on.
You've been battling influenza this week, you know a little
Let's just say it's been a tough week. But I listen,
this is one of my favorite things to do each week,
(20:29):
and I'm here no matter what. By the way, I'll
just throw you a little bone. Clemson is my biggest
bet ever in college I like Clemson over Ohio State.
I know you hate that, but I'll just throw this out.
Clemson has played sec Speed five times in the last
two years, with four blowout wins. Ohio State has played
(20:53):
big ten speed. Now they've got to shift gears and
a defense the Buckeyes over the last month has not
been as formidable the Buckey's defense. I think it's a wild,
high scoring affair and I'm swallowing the minus two with Clemson.
Your initial reaction, I think you're on the sharp side.
(21:14):
And the reason I say that is, let's use the
same logic calling that we would about who's the publican
to like here? Oh? God, yeah, they're gonna say. I
mean one, Ohio State had the best ats margin in
all of college football, meaning they covered the spread by
the most points in aggregate over the course of the year.
So that means a lot of Ohigh State betters won
(21:37):
a lot of money. Right number two. What happened is
that they were dominant and they not only covered, but
it looked like they weren't even gained. Right, Michigan didn't
even look like they were competitive. Now they're getting points
against the Clemson team. What did most people remember about them?
North Carolina? That's what they remember. I think the case
(21:57):
could be made. Clemson has had one of the best,
if not the best season ever of a defending champion.
In fact, if you actually look at their games except
for North Carolina, if you would give them an extra
field goal, just three points in two different games, they
would have covered every game this year except North Carolina.
It's hard to do. I remember Pete Carol's Trojans had
(22:20):
a lot of ugly Saturday wins because of apathy and dominance. Clemson,
it doesn't matter. They're that much better than everybody on
that side. And last thing about Clemson as a program,
all of these successes, Dabbo Sweeney had to head against Saban.
It's been with not great recruiting classes. And I know
you're kind of an aficionado of this. Clemson first time
(22:43):
ever they had a top five class. They had the
number one class in some accounting. So think about that.
They were able to be and go toe to toe
with anybody in the country, include in Alabama and Sabin
when they were recruiting twelve, fifth, teen that range. Now
they're number one. Lookout. R J. Bell, buddy, it's great
(23:06):
talking to you. Have a great holiday season, A you too, call,
and I appreciate it all right,
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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