September 26, 2020 • 24 mins
Colin talks with RJ Bell of Pregame.com & Fox Sports Radio about his Blazing 5 picks to find out which ones the sharps in Vegas agree or disagree with. This week's games:
Rams @ Bills
Raiders @ Patriots
Bengals @ Eagles
Texans @ Steelers
Buccaneers @ Broncos
Plus, Colin gives out a bonus pick not in his Blazing 5
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Hi, everybody is Saturday Morning podcast. R J Bell has
been really hot so far. I'm four and six on
the year pregame dot Com. The founder r J Bell
also you hear them on radio every day Fox Sports Radio.
All Right, everybody, before we get to r J. Bell,
here's my blazing five. Let's blaze it up, fired up.
(00:25):
It's Collins Blazing five. Rams at Bills. I'll take the
Bills minus two and a half. This is a really
strong play. Like it. I love it. Buffalo is a
home favorite. Is twelve and two in the last three years.
When they have momentum and the right team, they're pretty
darn good. They're the only team in the league top
(00:46):
five offense and defense. You see on the screen there
the improvement of young Josh Allen. Only The Patriots allow
fewer points per game than the Bills since the start
of last year, and their run defense is absolutely exceptional,
and that's what the Rams rely on. The Rams will
not run it like they have the first two weeks,
(01:08):
forcing Jared Goff on the road to throw more than
he's comfortable with. I'm taking the Bills minus two and
a half to win twenty seven twenty one Raiders at Patriots.
I'll take New England. The number now minus five and
a half. Patriots. Oh, by the way, the best team
in the NFL. New England after a loss twenty seven
(01:31):
and eight in the last decade, easily the best in
the league. Go right. The Raiders are on a short week.
They played Monday night football. Half the travel cross country
maybe the biggest Raider winning years. Highly emotional, and the
Raiders do something very poorly. They allow six and a
half yards to play. They don't give a ton over
(01:53):
the top, but you can slice them up six yards
at a time. What does Cam and the New England
offense do well? Get six yards at a time. New
England's not going to burn you over the top much.
They don't have a vertical threat. This will be a
dominant New England time of possession game. Cam six yards, Nikil,
Harry Edelman, Dell's six yard the Raiders to death. I
(02:17):
take the paid Trit's winning by more than a field
goal thirty four to twenty six. Bengals at Eagles upset
of the week. I'm taking Cincinnati plus five. Remember no
fans in Philadelphia. This is not the same Philadelphia for
a young quarterback Joe Burrow. He's not facing a rowdy
(02:37):
Eagle crowd. He's getting five points, and Cincinnati played on Thursday,
so the young quarterback gets three extra days of prep.
Carson Wentz has been all over the board in the
last six games. Eight sacks, four picks this year, both
tied for the most of any quarterback. I don't know
if Philadelphia's locker room is good. They also have the
(02:59):
most giveaway this year. This is a Philadelphia team that
is in flux. It is a strangely confident Owen two
Bengal team that feels great about itself. They upset the
Eagles in the fanless stadium in Philly. Twenty seven, twenty four,
Cincinnati Texans at Steelers. I love Houston plus four and
(03:20):
a half in this spot. Not sure they win the game,
but think about this, So we're judging Houston because they
lost to Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Everybody's gonna lose
to Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. The Steelers still make
too many mistakes. They have at least one giveaway in
twenty five straight games, at least one their offense. Now,
(03:44):
this a lot of this is backup quarterbacks. But the
Steelers offensive line run blocking this year has been atrocious.
What does that mean? You're gonna give to Shaun Watson
twelve thirteen, fourteen possessions? And the number here is just
simply too big. Houston's gonna feel desperate. They've lost a
(04:06):
great teams. Pittsburgh is not a great team. They're a
talented but limited, flawed team. Pittsburgh wins, but I'm taking
the four and a half points. Twenty seven twenty six
Steelers bucks at Broncos. Like it? I love it? Tampa
Bay minus six. Does everybody understand here's what the Broncos
(04:28):
are since the start of last season. When Drew Locke
doesn't play three and eight, they have a winning record.
When he does play, they're not a good football team.
They can't score without him. Nine touchdown seven picks. Jeff
Driscoll's one and seven as a starter. But this is
about defense. New England has totally shut down Alvin Kamara
(04:51):
last week. They shut down Christian McCaffrey. What are the
Bronchos right now offensively if they can't run the football?
Jeff Driscoll, Tom, this is a lot of times a
touchdown favorite goes on the Road as a little laxadaisical.
Nobody's focused like Tampa Bay right now. They think they
(05:11):
are not playing well and their defense has actually been
absolutely on fire. I think this game could get ugly
by the second half. I'll go Bucks twenty seven seventeen.
I think I'm being a little conservative on that. I
think we could have ourselves a blowout. But I will
take Tampa Bay and Tom Brady TB to win and cover.
(05:32):
So here we go in our Saturday podcast. This is
one of my stronger plays. I'll start with this. Rams
at the Bills Buffalo minus two and a half. I
love Buffalo in this spot. First of all, go back
three years. They're twelve and two is a home favorite. Secondly,
they're the only team in the NFL that's top five
offense and defense. In fact, only the Patriots have allowed
(05:54):
fewer points a game than the Bills since twenty nineteen.
I'll easily at home lay the two and a half.
I like the Bills here to win by a touchdown.
Why is guys agree or disagree? Agreement? And let's think
about this Rams team. There was a sense entering the
year that it was over for the Rams, that it
was a failure that the GM and the decisions that
(06:17):
were made by the Rams just killed this team. I
generally agree with that, but this is the last year.
It's they're probably gonna be viable, meaning these contracts, Ramsey,
all these contracts are going to be a problem this year,
though not so much of a problem. They're thin but viable.
(06:38):
But even so, Week one wasn't that long ago. Week one,
the Rams were a three point home underdog home against
the Cowboys. Now they're an even team versus the Bills. Now,
by the way, in that Cowboys game late in the week,
a lot of Rams money came in, but for multiple money.
(07:00):
The Rams were plus three at home, and no one
was all that excited about it. That's why they were
plus three. I think mcvay's schemes are awesome. There's some
element of surprise. Now it's week three, I'm not sure
there's much surprise left. And McDermott is a great coach.
Funky travel, funky travel For the Rams. They were supposed
to go play Philly, stay back East, then play Buffalo.
(07:23):
They decided late to fly back and then back again
another advantage form Buffalo. Last thing, the Bills have actually
been up at halftime in these two games combined thirty
eight to thirteen, and their yardage adge two hundred and
sixty yards and their negative turnovers on the season, meaning
the Bills have had a lot of things go against them.
(07:44):
They're still winning. Agreement Bills. Okay, this is my second
favorite pick. New England minus six and a half hosting
the Raiders. First of all, the obvious stuff. The Raiders
are on a short week, then have to travel all
the way out east. Big advantage Patriots. Secondly, the Raiders
have one major issue. They allow almost six point seven
(08:06):
yards of play. The Patriots may not have a great
vertical threat, but with Cam Newton, what we know they
can do. We saw it against Seattle in Miami is
pick up five and six yard chunks at will. The
Patriot strength is the Raiders weakness. They're going to own
the clock, control the line of scrimmage. May not get
a lot of over the top plays, They're not built
(08:27):
for that right now. In New England. They have no
vertical component, receiver or tight end. But I'm going to
take the Patriots comfortably here minus six and a half.
One of the wise guys think, okay, agreement, but I
have one caveat, which is the just later this week.
Late in this week, there was some sharp money on
the Raiders and it moved this line to five and
(08:48):
a half. So one, you know, five and a half,
obviously laying it's better, but two sharp money in a
spot that's not obvious. But that's said, I see what
you see. One. I'm belichicker pass. I mean just history
tells us at too. How does Belichick tend to win
these games? He usually exploits the weakness on the other team.
(09:11):
And Gruden, let's give him credit, has been able to
hide some weaknesses. But man, oh man, against Belichick, I
don't think he's able to. And by the way, awful
loss because though Camp played well, a lot of optimism
off half, Belichick off a loss since two thousand and three,
sixty nine percent against the spread the next game forty
(09:32):
and eighteen. Yeah, he does not like to lose. And
you mentioned a short week and all that, but also
a very emotional win on Monday night, first game in
Las Vegas. So at five and a half, especially agreement Patriots. Okay,
Bengals at the Eagles. What is the line currently, RJ?
(09:53):
That one's six and a half or six or so.
So I think you're in the right ranger at six
and a half. Okay, So I like Cincinnati in the points.
Think the Philadelphia Eagles have internal issues, offensive issue issues,
and I think they have turnover issues. I think Cincinnati
has got three extra days to prepare, so they played
on Thursday. So this is a team that's very well rusted,
(10:15):
healthier with a very confident, capable young quarterback. Philadelphia right
now is if it wasn't for like the Jets and
the Giants, Philadelphia is a bad football team. And I
do think it's hard to face an offensive capable team
getting almost a touchdown. Again, this is not Philadelphia November.
(10:36):
Weather's not an issue. I'm gonna this is my upset
of the week. I'm gonna go Bengals twenty seven twenty four.
One of the wise guys think. And by the way,
look you got the updated odds and I had a
little bit of a brain spasm. Their Bengals are down
to four and a half in this game, Eagles four
and a half, which means, if anything, calling a lot
of sharp money on the Bengals. Here. Here's one thing
(10:58):
that confuses me on this game. And I'm going to
do a slight disagreement with you, and here's why. But
there's one thing that makes me lean. Well, let me
just say it, like this, teams that are owing two
straight up and owing two against the spread, So that's Philadelphia.
You lose both games and you don't cover either of them.
The last thirty years sixty one percent against the spread.
(11:23):
So you're thinking, oh, my gosh, well that's Eagles all
the way then, right, because I mean they're going to
redeem themselves, They're gonna be focused. But those teams that
were favored actually are about five hundred. So on one hand,
I could say, oh, it's a great trend. On the
other hand, I could say, yeah, but just for the underdogs.
And I think that's maybe the point here is do
(11:44):
you believe? And let me ask you, do you believe
that the that the Bengals are competent enough to go
in because Burrow has been impressive, I agree with you
against an Eagles team that, quite frankly, there's seasons on
the line. Do you really think come Monday, the Philly
(12:05):
season is gonna be over? I guess I know you're
a big fan of When Jenson is so bad, I
don't think it will be I think three. Yeah, I
mean I think Dallas is gonna lose this weekend. The
Giants are gonna lose, So I don't I don't think
Owen three in this division the worst in football. Owen
three and most divisions it's over. I just don't think
in this one. Yeah. I think in Philly though, who knows,
(12:28):
they might be over because they burned down the building
around the Eagles. So I'll say this, I'm gonna go slight.
This is a close one for me. Obviously, I'm gonna
go slight disagreement. But I will say this, the sharp
money so far this week has brought it from six
and a half to four and a half. So they
agree with you there at this number. Slight disagreement. I'm
gonna take the Texans plus four and a half at
(12:50):
the Steelers. And here's why I think this is a
value play. The Texans have faced Patrick Mahomes and they've
faced Lamar Jackson. Those are probably the two best teams
in the league. Okay, Deshaun Watson after a loss last
year was magnificent. It was five and oz one hundred
(13:10):
and fourteen quarterback rating. This is still an incredibly gifted
head gifted quarterback, and this is a team with talent.
The Steeler's offense is very interesting. They're all banged up,
first of all in the offensive line. Secondly, they have
one plus giveaway in twenty five straight games. They're still
sloppy and their offense. I watched them last week. It's
(13:32):
just out of sync. It's not great with details. They
could not put away Jeff Driscoll with that defense. So
this is a value play for me. I think Pittsburgh
wins by a point or two, but I'm I'm gonna
take the foreign a half here. No fans, no great
home field advantage, and I just think Houston looks so
bad because they faced Baltimore in Kansas City. I'm gonna
(13:54):
give you an agreement here. I thought you were going Steelers.
I'm actually I'm happy about this this line though. What
a story this line tows is let's say home field
is two during COVID with you know, the limited fans
or no fans in many cases. So this means Texans
are only two points worse than the Steelers. That's showing
an owing two team a ton of respect. I think
(14:16):
you're right about that. You know By the way, this
is another team, Houston that falls into the O two
O two oh and two straight up oh and two
against the spread. Now here's what's beautiful. Though. They're an underdog,
so you literally have a sixty one percent thirty year
trend backing you up. By the way, Houston against the
two best teams in football only out gained combined by
(14:38):
one hundred and twelve yards. Yeah. No's they haven't finished well. Again,
I don't know if it's a brilliantly coached team, but
let's be honest about this. We all love Deshaun Watson.
I'm still I'm not sure right now with the ability
for Pittsburgh to consistently run the ball. I just have
(14:58):
a lot of questions about Pittsburgh. I just four and
a half with nohlme Fans. Feels like a ton of
points for a star quarterback. Yeah, and again, remember though
Watson had a win. Told Winner of the Year is
seven and a half on Houston. So there has been
pessimism in general. You mentioned something that was so on.
I think if you look at Pro Football Focus, they
(15:19):
great offensive lines and their ability to run block. Number
thirty two run blocking team in the NFL. The worst
Pittsburgh Wow. And last thing, Houston minus three in turnovers,
minus three turnovers on the year, So to be against
the two best teams, to be minus three means if
they were plus three, they probably have won at least
(15:40):
one of those games. In general turnovers even out throughout
the year, so they were minus three, but they only
were out game by one hundred or so yards. So
Houston played better than it seems Owen two trend agreement Houston.
All right, I'm gonna take Tom Brady for the second
week in a row with a big number. I'm gonna
take Tampa Bay minus six. And everybody says Tom doesn't
play well in But this is interesting. If you go
(16:02):
back to the start of last year, Denver is bad
when Drew Locke doesn't start. They're three and eight. Now
they have a winning record four and three with him,
but they're a bad team without him. Jeff Driscoll is
one and seven as a starter in the NFL. That's
the worst record of any quarterback with eight plus starts
since twenty eighteen. And here's the story of Tampa their defense.
(16:27):
Eight consecutive games holding opponents under one hundred rushing yards.
They force Jeff Driscoll to throw. I'm gonna take Tampa
winning by ten. One of the wise guys think this
is going to surprise because this is probably not sharp,
but I'm gonna give you agreement here. And here's why
we've talked about this trend for years, which is road
(16:50):
favorites off of bye do exceptionally Wow. Now you might say,
r J, there's no bye here, except what does a
bye do? A bye says you're focused because you had
the week off. And the main fear on road favorites
is they're not going to be focused. There's so much
better than the team they're not focused. Well, we know
Tampa Bay is going to be focused here. Brady's not
(17:11):
happy with how that he's playing. So if you have
the focus, that's a big thing with road favorites. And
this is my favorite insider tip of the week. Driscoll,
He's been bad, but not horrible, but he holds the
ball too much in his career. A nine percent sack rate.
Literally about one out of ten times he goes back
to past he gets sacked. Against Pittsburgh it was a
(17:32):
fifteen percent sack rate. Tampa Bay has the fourth best
pressure line pressure generating team in the NFL. I'm gonna
predict you're gonna hear something like, oh my god, a
strip sacked. Driscoll goes down. And if so, this game
is a sweet game because if we get one strip sack,
we know we got it. And last thing, Denver lost
(17:54):
Von Miller not that long ago. Now you lose not
only lock for some time, but Courtland Sutton. Yes, I
think emotionally it's a tough spot for agreement. Tampa r J. Bell,
founder pregame dot Com. Check it out also, of course,
straight out of Vegas every day Fox Sports Radio Monday
through Friday. Okay, this is the game. It's the bonus pick,
(18:16):
and we always give, you know, we give We give
our kids who listen a little dessert at the end
of the meeting. So this is a game. Is that
I considered strongly. My bonus pick is something I considered strongly.
M I generally don't like picking Monday night football games.
There's a lot of reasons. It's the only game. There's
a different pressure to it. And I just I, you know, initially,
(18:37):
I think they betters used to use this as the
catch up game, right, Yeah, I just I mostly stay
away from one of net football games. They're the only
game there's a unique pressure, and some teams fold, like
Kirk Cousins, they can't win. He's a good, good quarterback,
he's awful. I'm of net football, so I would take
the Ravens minus four. Here, I would take the favorite
um twenty five straight games with over one hundred rushing yards.
(19:01):
I believe the way to beat Mahomes is keep him
off the field, and I think Baltimore's offense will keep
him off the field. So I would have taken Baltimore
minus four, you know, to win by about a touchdown
in a highly competitive game. What would the wise guys
have said about my bonus pick? Hate that game? Disagreement,
biggest disagreement of the week. And think of it like this, Colin.
(19:22):
If you look at Lamar Jackson against everyone except Kansas
City in the regular season, he's twenty one and one.
Against Kansas City, he's oz and two. Yeah, it could
be a coincidence. Andy Reid though a heck of a coach,
and Harbaugh usually out schemes the opponents. I also think
the following, and this is going to be under discussed Monday,
(19:43):
we'll get ahead of it, which is there's only one
number one seed in each conference this year. Yeah, this
game effectively is for the number one seed. What you
could say is maybe Baltimore has more of a statement
to make. Kansas City might rest on their Super Bowl trophy.
But Kansas City does not want to go to Baltimore
in the conference final, and they don't want to play
(20:05):
the first weekend if they can avoid it. I think
you get full effort from both teams. We're getting over
a field goal. Love the Chiefs. You know, it's interesting.
Here's what worries to me about Kansas City, and this
is like a disturbing trend. Four of their last five
wins for Kansas City have come after trailing by ten
plus points at some point. They're a very good come
(20:25):
from behind team. But I do worry. I could all
if I could bet this game, I'd bet Baltimore scores first.
They're a quick starting team and Kansas City's a slow
starting team. What I worry about is Baltimore's got a
lead late and the ball and it's just Kansas City
is getting kind of into a habit RJ of just
(20:48):
kind of kicking it around. Pete Carroll's teams do this
too much that they just kind of they just kind
of roll it out and then at halftime he makes
adjustments and you ask Russell Wilson va, you know, save
the franchise. Now this year they haven't been like that,
but it's always driven me nuts about Pete Carroll. He's
a great adjuster. But Annie Reid's teams now are getting
(21:10):
into big holes. Does that worry you at all? Well, first,
I would say Pete Carroll this year he's been totally different. Yes,
this year is an aberration for him. Yeah, And the
question is going to keep it up? Because if so,
the analytics guys love the aggression they're shown early. Here's
what I wonder, And you watch these games very closely.
I don't take too much of my watching the game
(21:32):
and account. I try to block that out because I
think that I'm not a professional at that and like
scouts are, and I know you've gotten away a perspective
of a scout which I'm always interested to hear your
thoughts is do you feel like it's Kansas City being
lacks a days ago making mistakes that are schematic early
Let's say one or the other, or is it Hey,
(21:54):
things just went against them and they were able to
come back. Because to me, being able to come back
is a great advantage. I just don't want them doing
something deficient that puts him behind more times than not.
So how do you see it? Do you think the
cause is? Well, my cause would be this. If people
forget this, it was either passer rating or completion percentage.
(22:15):
Patrick Mahomes was eleventh in the NFL last year. He
is still ascending and developing as a pocket passer. He
acknowledges he's just started being able to read a defense
last year. He's a kid. He is a kid, and
he still can be really loose, and so I think
when he's at his best, he's trailing, they put the
(22:37):
ball in his hands and they say, go be magic.
It's often when Russell Wilson's at his best. But I
still think Mahomes leaves a lot on the table and
makes a lot of mistakes. And I think teams come
out with defensive game plans in different looks, and I
think he can struggle early in games because I don't
think overall he's the quarterback of Russell Wilson today. I
(22:59):
just think he's a better quarterback talent than anybody I've
seen in a decade, so I do think you can
still flummix him early in games as he's learning the
position at the line of scrimmage. I guess in that case,
you've got to wonder if playing Baltimore so much does
that help Kansas City or does that help Baltimore because
they've seen him now so many times and Noah's weaknesses,
(23:20):
but is there that many weaknesses or is it him
being lacks of days ago? And if anything, Lamar seems
like the one if you get more familiar with it's
an advantage. But you know what, this is why the
NFL is so amazing. I will say this, Here's why
I don't think you can like Baltimore. I th you
can like you cannot like Kansas City. But here's why
I don't think you can finally like Baltimore. Is the
(23:41):
line in this game last week, so the look ahead
was two and a half. The only thing that happened
was Baltimore played one good game in Kansas City had
a let's say bad game on the road against a
very talented Chargers team, and then the line jumps from
two and a half to three and a half. To me,
that's the value. If this game was two and a half,
I'd pass it three and a half. I think the
(24:02):
value is Casey very good stuff. His name is r
J Bell at r J and Vegas is his Twitter account.
Pregame dot com is the site Straight out of Vegas.
Is the radio show We Hope is always You enjoy
our Saturday podcast, r J good talking to you. Well
when it's five minutes late, everyone on Twitter is going crazy,
(24:22):
so they must enjoy a Colin Thank you.
Hi, everybody is Saturday Morning podcast. R J Bell has
been really hot so far. I'm four and six on
the year pregame dot Com. The founder r J Bell
also you hear them on radio every day Fox Sports Radio.
All Right, everybody, before we get to r J. Bell,
here's my blazing five. Let's blaze it up, fired up.
(00:25):
It's Collins Blazing five. Rams at Bills. I'll take the
Bills minus two and a half. This is a really
strong play. Like it. I love it. Buffalo is a
home favorite. Is twelve and two in the last three years.
When they have momentum and the right team, they're pretty
darn good. They're the only team in the league top
(00:46):
five offense and defense. You see on the screen there
the improvement of young Josh Allen. Only The Patriots allow
fewer points per game than the Bills since the start
of last year, and their run defense is absolutely exceptional,
and that's what the Rams rely on. The Rams will
not run it like they have the first two weeks,
(01:08):
forcing Jared Goff on the road to throw more than
he's comfortable with. I'm taking the Bills minus two and
a half to win twenty seven twenty one Raiders at Patriots.
I'll take New England. The number now minus five and
a half. Patriots. Oh, by the way, the best team
in the NFL. New England after a loss twenty seven
(01:31):
and eight in the last decade, easily the best in
the league. Go right. The Raiders are on a short week.
They played Monday night football. Half the travel cross country
maybe the biggest Raider winning years. Highly emotional, and the
Raiders do something very poorly. They allow six and a
half yards to play. They don't give a ton over
(01:53):
the top, but you can slice them up six yards
at a time. What does Cam and the New England
offense do well? Get six yards at a time. New
England's not going to burn you over the top much.
They don't have a vertical threat. This will be a
dominant New England time of possession game. Cam six yards, Nikil,
Harry Edelman, Dell's six yard the Raiders to death. I
(02:17):
take the paid Trit's winning by more than a field
goal thirty four to twenty six. Bengals at Eagles upset
of the week. I'm taking Cincinnati plus five. Remember no
fans in Philadelphia. This is not the same Philadelphia for
a young quarterback Joe Burrow. He's not facing a rowdy
(02:37):
Eagle crowd. He's getting five points, and Cincinnati played on Thursday,
so the young quarterback gets three extra days of prep.
Carson Wentz has been all over the board in the
last six games. Eight sacks, four picks this year, both
tied for the most of any quarterback. I don't know
if Philadelphia's locker room is good. They also have the
(02:59):
most giveaway this year. This is a Philadelphia team that
is in flux. It is a strangely confident Owen two
Bengal team that feels great about itself. They upset the
Eagles in the fanless stadium in Philly. Twenty seven, twenty four,
Cincinnati Texans at Steelers. I love Houston plus four and
(03:20):
a half in this spot. Not sure they win the game,
but think about this, So we're judging Houston because they
lost to Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Everybody's gonna lose
to Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. The Steelers still make
too many mistakes. They have at least one giveaway in
twenty five straight games, at least one their offense. Now,
(03:44):
this a lot of this is backup quarterbacks. But the
Steelers offensive line run blocking this year has been atrocious.
What does that mean? You're gonna give to Shaun Watson
twelve thirteen, fourteen possessions? And the number here is just
simply too big. Houston's gonna feel desperate. They've lost a
(04:06):
great teams. Pittsburgh is not a great team. They're a
talented but limited, flawed team. Pittsburgh wins, but I'm taking
the four and a half points. Twenty seven twenty six
Steelers bucks at Broncos. Like it? I love it? Tampa
Bay minus six. Does everybody understand here's what the Broncos
(04:28):
are since the start of last season. When Drew Locke
doesn't play three and eight, they have a winning record.
When he does play, they're not a good football team.
They can't score without him. Nine touchdown seven picks. Jeff
Driscoll's one and seven as a starter. But this is
about defense. New England has totally shut down Alvin Kamara
(04:51):
last week. They shut down Christian McCaffrey. What are the
Bronchos right now offensively if they can't run the football?
Jeff Driscoll, Tom, this is a lot of times a
touchdown favorite goes on the Road as a little laxadaisical.
Nobody's focused like Tampa Bay right now. They think they
(05:11):
are not playing well and their defense has actually been
absolutely on fire. I think this game could get ugly
by the second half. I'll go Bucks twenty seven seventeen.
I think I'm being a little conservative on that. I
think we could have ourselves a blowout. But I will
take Tampa Bay and Tom Brady TB to win and cover.
(05:32):
So here we go in our Saturday podcast. This is
one of my stronger plays. I'll start with this. Rams
at the Bills Buffalo minus two and a half. I
love Buffalo in this spot. First of all, go back
three years. They're twelve and two is a home favorite. Secondly,
they're the only team in the NFL that's top five
offense and defense. In fact, only the Patriots have allowed
(05:54):
fewer points a game than the Bills since twenty nineteen.
I'll easily at home lay the two and a half.
I like the Bills here to win by a touchdown.
Why is guys agree or disagree? Agreement? And let's think
about this Rams team. There was a sense entering the
year that it was over for the Rams, that it
was a failure that the GM and the decisions that
(06:17):
were made by the Rams just killed this team. I
generally agree with that, but this is the last year.
It's they're probably gonna be viable, meaning these contracts, Ramsey,
all these contracts are going to be a problem this year,
though not so much of a problem. They're thin but viable.
(06:38):
But even so, Week one wasn't that long ago. Week one,
the Rams were a three point home underdog home against
the Cowboys. Now they're an even team versus the Bills. Now,
by the way, in that Cowboys game late in the week,
a lot of Rams money came in, but for multiple money.
(07:00):
The Rams were plus three at home, and no one
was all that excited about it. That's why they were
plus three. I think mcvay's schemes are awesome. There's some
element of surprise. Now it's week three, I'm not sure
there's much surprise left. And McDermott is a great coach.
Funky travel, funky travel For the Rams. They were supposed
to go play Philly, stay back East, then play Buffalo.
(07:23):
They decided late to fly back and then back again
another advantage form Buffalo. Last thing, the Bills have actually
been up at halftime in these two games combined thirty
eight to thirteen, and their yardage adge two hundred and
sixty yards and their negative turnovers on the season, meaning
the Bills have had a lot of things go against them.
(07:44):
They're still winning. Agreement Bills. Okay, this is my second
favorite pick. New England minus six and a half hosting
the Raiders. First of all, the obvious stuff. The Raiders
are on a short week, then have to travel all
the way out east. Big advantage Patriots. Secondly, the Raiders
have one major issue. They allow almost six point seven
(08:06):
yards of play. The Patriots may not have a great
vertical threat, but with Cam Newton, what we know they
can do. We saw it against Seattle in Miami is
pick up five and six yard chunks at will. The
Patriot strength is the Raiders weakness. They're going to own
the clock, control the line of scrimmage. May not get
a lot of over the top plays, They're not built
(08:27):
for that right now. In New England. They have no
vertical component, receiver or tight end. But I'm going to
take the Patriots comfortably here minus six and a half.
One of the wise guys think, okay, agreement, but I
have one caveat, which is the just later this week.
Late in this week, there was some sharp money on
the Raiders and it moved this line to five and
(08:48):
a half. So one, you know, five and a half,
obviously laying it's better, but two sharp money in a
spot that's not obvious. But that's said, I see what
you see. One. I'm belichicker pass. I mean just history
tells us at too. How does Belichick tend to win
these games? He usually exploits the weakness on the other team.
(09:11):
And Gruden, let's give him credit, has been able to
hide some weaknesses. But man, oh man, against Belichick, I
don't think he's able to. And by the way, awful
loss because though Camp played well, a lot of optimism
off half, Belichick off a loss since two thousand and three,
sixty nine percent against the spread the next game forty
(09:32):
and eighteen. Yeah, he does not like to lose. And
you mentioned a short week and all that, but also
a very emotional win on Monday night, first game in
Las Vegas. So at five and a half, especially agreement Patriots. Okay,
Bengals at the Eagles. What is the line currently, RJ?
(09:53):
That one's six and a half or six or so.
So I think you're in the right ranger at six
and a half. Okay, So I like Cincinnati in the points.
Think the Philadelphia Eagles have internal issues, offensive issue issues,
and I think they have turnover issues. I think Cincinnati
has got three extra days to prepare, so they played
on Thursday. So this is a team that's very well rusted,
(10:15):
healthier with a very confident, capable young quarterback. Philadelphia right
now is if it wasn't for like the Jets and
the Giants, Philadelphia is a bad football team. And I
do think it's hard to face an offensive capable team
getting almost a touchdown. Again, this is not Philadelphia November.
(10:36):
Weather's not an issue. I'm gonna this is my upset
of the week. I'm gonna go Bengals twenty seven twenty four.
One of the wise guys think. And by the way,
look you got the updated odds and I had a
little bit of a brain spasm. Their Bengals are down
to four and a half in this game, Eagles four
and a half, which means, if anything, calling a lot
of sharp money on the Bengals. Here. Here's one thing
(10:58):
that confuses me on this game. And I'm going to
do a slight disagreement with you, and here's why. But
there's one thing that makes me lean. Well, let me
just say it, like this, teams that are owing two
straight up and owing two against the spread, So that's Philadelphia.
You lose both games and you don't cover either of them.
The last thirty years sixty one percent against the spread.
(11:23):
So you're thinking, oh, my gosh, well that's Eagles all
the way then, right, because I mean they're going to
redeem themselves, They're gonna be focused. But those teams that
were favored actually are about five hundred. So on one hand,
I could say, oh, it's a great trend. On the
other hand, I could say, yeah, but just for the underdogs.
And I think that's maybe the point here is do
(11:44):
you believe? And let me ask you, do you believe
that the that the Bengals are competent enough to go
in because Burrow has been impressive, I agree with you
against an Eagles team that, quite frankly, there's seasons on
the line. Do you really think come Monday, the Philly
(12:05):
season is gonna be over? I guess I know you're
a big fan of When Jenson is so bad, I
don't think it will be I think three. Yeah, I
mean I think Dallas is gonna lose this weekend. The
Giants are gonna lose, So I don't I don't think
Owen three in this division the worst in football. Owen
three and most divisions it's over. I just don't think
in this one. Yeah. I think in Philly though, who knows,
(12:28):
they might be over because they burned down the building
around the Eagles. So I'll say this, I'm gonna go slight.
This is a close one for me. Obviously, I'm gonna
go slight disagreement. But I will say this, the sharp
money so far this week has brought it from six
and a half to four and a half. So they
agree with you there at this number. Slight disagreement. I'm
gonna take the Texans plus four and a half at
(12:50):
the Steelers. And here's why I think this is a
value play. The Texans have faced Patrick Mahomes and they've
faced Lamar Jackson. Those are probably the two best teams
in the league. Okay, Deshaun Watson after a loss last
year was magnificent. It was five and oz one hundred
(13:10):
and fourteen quarterback rating. This is still an incredibly gifted
head gifted quarterback, and this is a team with talent.
The Steeler's offense is very interesting. They're all banged up,
first of all in the offensive line. Secondly, they have
one plus giveaway in twenty five straight games. They're still
sloppy and their offense. I watched them last week. It's
(13:32):
just out of sync. It's not great with details. They
could not put away Jeff Driscoll with that defense. So
this is a value play for me. I think Pittsburgh
wins by a point or two, but I'm I'm gonna
take the foreign a half here. No fans, no great
home field advantage, and I just think Houston looks so
bad because they faced Baltimore in Kansas City. I'm gonna
(13:54):
give you an agreement here. I thought you were going Steelers.
I'm actually I'm happy about this this line though. What
a story this line tows is let's say home field
is two during COVID with you know, the limited fans
or no fans in many cases. So this means Texans
are only two points worse than the Steelers. That's showing
an owing two team a ton of respect. I think
(14:16):
you're right about that. You know By the way, this
is another team, Houston that falls into the O two
O two oh and two straight up oh and two
against the spread. Now here's what's beautiful. Though. They're an underdog,
so you literally have a sixty one percent thirty year
trend backing you up. By the way, Houston against the
two best teams in football only out gained combined by
(14:38):
one hundred and twelve yards. Yeah. No's they haven't finished well. Again,
I don't know if it's a brilliantly coached team, but
let's be honest about this. We all love Deshaun Watson.
I'm still I'm not sure right now with the ability
for Pittsburgh to consistently run the ball. I just have
(14:58):
a lot of questions about Pittsburgh. I just four and
a half with nohlme Fans. Feels like a ton of
points for a star quarterback. Yeah, and again, remember though
Watson had a win. Told Winner of the Year is
seven and a half on Houston. So there has been
pessimism in general. You mentioned something that was so on.
I think if you look at Pro Football Focus, they
(15:19):
great offensive lines and their ability to run block. Number
thirty two run blocking team in the NFL. The worst
Pittsburgh Wow. And last thing, Houston minus three in turnovers,
minus three turnovers on the year, So to be against
the two best teams, to be minus three means if
they were plus three, they probably have won at least
(15:40):
one of those games. In general turnovers even out throughout
the year, so they were minus three, but they only
were out game by one hundred or so yards. So
Houston played better than it seems Owen two trend agreement Houston.
All right, I'm gonna take Tom Brady for the second
week in a row with a big number. I'm gonna
take Tampa Bay minus six. And everybody says Tom doesn't
play well in But this is interesting. If you go
(16:02):
back to the start of last year, Denver is bad
when Drew Locke doesn't start. They're three and eight. Now
they have a winning record four and three with him,
but they're a bad team without him. Jeff Driscoll is
one and seven as a starter in the NFL. That's
the worst record of any quarterback with eight plus starts
since twenty eighteen. And here's the story of Tampa their defense.
(16:27):
Eight consecutive games holding opponents under one hundred rushing yards.
They force Jeff Driscoll to throw. I'm gonna take Tampa
winning by ten. One of the wise guys think this
is going to surprise because this is probably not sharp,
but I'm gonna give you agreement here. And here's why
we've talked about this trend for years, which is road
(16:50):
favorites off of bye do exceptionally Wow. Now you might say,
r J, there's no bye here, except what does a
bye do? A bye says you're focused because you had
the week off. And the main fear on road favorites
is they're not going to be focused. There's so much
better than the team they're not focused. Well, we know
Tampa Bay is going to be focused here. Brady's not
(17:11):
happy with how that he's playing. So if you have
the focus, that's a big thing with road favorites. And
this is my favorite insider tip of the week. Driscoll,
He's been bad, but not horrible, but he holds the
ball too much in his career. A nine percent sack rate.
Literally about one out of ten times he goes back
to past he gets sacked. Against Pittsburgh it was a
(17:32):
fifteen percent sack rate. Tampa Bay has the fourth best
pressure line pressure generating team in the NFL. I'm gonna
predict you're gonna hear something like, oh my god, a
strip sacked. Driscoll goes down. And if so, this game
is a sweet game because if we get one strip sack,
we know we got it. And last thing, Denver lost
(17:54):
Von Miller not that long ago. Now you lose not
only lock for some time, but Courtland Sutton. Yes, I
think emotionally it's a tough spot for agreement. Tampa r J. Bell,
founder pregame dot Com. Check it out also, of course,
straight out of Vegas every day Fox Sports Radio Monday
through Friday. Okay, this is the game. It's the bonus pick,
(18:16):
and we always give, you know, we give We give
our kids who listen a little dessert at the end
of the meeting. So this is a game. Is that
I considered strongly. My bonus pick is something I considered strongly.
M I generally don't like picking Monday night football games.
There's a lot of reasons. It's the only game. There's
a different pressure to it. And I just I, you know, initially,
(18:37):
I think they betters used to use this as the
catch up game, right, Yeah, I just I mostly stay
away from one of net football games. They're the only
game there's a unique pressure, and some teams fold, like
Kirk Cousins, they can't win. He's a good, good quarterback,
he's awful. I'm of net football, so I would take
the Ravens minus four. Here, I would take the favorite
um twenty five straight games with over one hundred rushing yards.
(19:01):
I believe the way to beat Mahomes is keep him
off the field, and I think Baltimore's offense will keep
him off the field. So I would have taken Baltimore
minus four, you know, to win by about a touchdown
in a highly competitive game. What would the wise guys
have said about my bonus pick? Hate that game? Disagreement,
biggest disagreement of the week. And think of it like this, Colin.
(19:22):
If you look at Lamar Jackson against everyone except Kansas
City in the regular season, he's twenty one and one.
Against Kansas City, he's oz and two. Yeah, it could
be a coincidence. Andy Reid though a heck of a coach,
and Harbaugh usually out schemes the opponents. I also think
the following, and this is going to be under discussed Monday,
(19:43):
we'll get ahead of it, which is there's only one
number one seed in each conference this year. Yeah, this
game effectively is for the number one seed. What you
could say is maybe Baltimore has more of a statement
to make. Kansas City might rest on their Super Bowl trophy.
But Kansas City does not want to go to Baltimore
in the conference final, and they don't want to play
(20:05):
the first weekend if they can avoid it. I think
you get full effort from both teams. We're getting over
a field goal. Love the Chiefs. You know, it's interesting.
Here's what worries to me about Kansas City, and this
is like a disturbing trend. Four of their last five
wins for Kansas City have come after trailing by ten
plus points at some point. They're a very good come
(20:25):
from behind team. But I do worry. I could all
if I could bet this game, I'd bet Baltimore scores first.
They're a quick starting team and Kansas City's a slow
starting team. What I worry about is Baltimore's got a
lead late and the ball and it's just Kansas City
is getting kind of into a habit RJ of just
(20:48):
kind of kicking it around. Pete Carroll's teams do this
too much that they just kind of they just kind
of roll it out and then at halftime he makes
adjustments and you ask Russell Wilson va, you know, save
the franchise. Now this year they haven't been like that,
but it's always driven me nuts about Pete Carroll. He's
a great adjuster. But Annie Reid's teams now are getting
(21:10):
into big holes. Does that worry you at all? Well, first,
I would say Pete Carroll this year he's been totally different. Yes,
this year is an aberration for him. Yeah, And the
question is going to keep it up? Because if so,
the analytics guys love the aggression they're shown early. Here's
what I wonder, And you watch these games very closely.
I don't take too much of my watching the game
(21:32):
and account. I try to block that out because I
think that I'm not a professional at that and like
scouts are, and I know you've gotten away a perspective
of a scout which I'm always interested to hear your
thoughts is do you feel like it's Kansas City being
lacks a days ago making mistakes that are schematic early
Let's say one or the other, or is it Hey,
(21:54):
things just went against them and they were able to
come back. Because to me, being able to come back
is a great advantage. I just don't want them doing
something deficient that puts him behind more times than not.
So how do you see it? Do you think the
cause is? Well, my cause would be this. If people
forget this, it was either passer rating or completion percentage.
(22:15):
Patrick Mahomes was eleventh in the NFL last year. He
is still ascending and developing as a pocket passer. He
acknowledges he's just started being able to read a defense
last year. He's a kid. He is a kid, and
he still can be really loose, and so I think
when he's at his best, he's trailing, they put the
(22:37):
ball in his hands and they say, go be magic.
It's often when Russell Wilson's at his best. But I
still think Mahomes leaves a lot on the table and
makes a lot of mistakes. And I think teams come
out with defensive game plans in different looks, and I
think he can struggle early in games because I don't
think overall he's the quarterback of Russell Wilson today. I
(22:59):
just think he's a better quarterback talent than anybody I've
seen in a decade, so I do think you can
still flummix him early in games as he's learning the
position at the line of scrimmage. I guess in that case,
you've got to wonder if playing Baltimore so much does
that help Kansas City or does that help Baltimore because
they've seen him now so many times and Noah's weaknesses,
(23:20):
but is there that many weaknesses or is it him
being lacks of days ago? And if anything, Lamar seems
like the one if you get more familiar with it's
an advantage. But you know what, this is why the
NFL is so amazing. I will say this, Here's why
I don't think you can like Baltimore. I th you
can like you cannot like Kansas City. But here's why
I don't think you can finally like Baltimore. Is the
(23:41):
line in this game last week, so the look ahead
was two and a half. The only thing that happened
was Baltimore played one good game in Kansas City had
a let's say bad game on the road against a
very talented Chargers team, and then the line jumps from
two and a half to three and a half. To me,
that's the value. If this game was two and a half,
I'd pass it three and a half. I think the
(24:02):
value is Casey very good stuff. His name is r
J Bell at r J and Vegas is his Twitter account.
Pregame dot com is the site Straight out of Vegas.
Is the radio show We Hope is always You enjoy
our Saturday podcast, r J good talking to you. Well
when it's five minutes late, everyone on Twitter is going crazy,
(24:22):
so they must enjoy a Colin Thank you.
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Colin Cowherd
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