New Poll Shows How Voters Feel About Trump Ahead Of Manhattan Trial

By Jason Hall

March 20, 2024

Court Hearing In Donald Trump's Hush-Money Criminal Case
Photo: Getty Images

A new poll shows that half the U.S. believes former President Donald Trump is guilty ahead of his delayed New York hush money trial.

The poll, which was released by POLITICO on Monday (March 18), showed a total of 50% of respondents believed Trump was guilty of the alleged crimes in the falsifying business records case, which included 86% of Democrat respondents, 14% of Republicans and 54% of Independents. Additionally, 36% of independent respondents said they were "less likely to support Trump" if he is "tried and convicted" in the case, which includes 34 counts charing him with falsifying business records in relation to a hush money payment paid by his then-attorney Michael Cohen to adult film actress Stormy Daniels prior to the 2016 presidential election.

The poll also showed that 70% of respondents believed that U.S. presidents shouldn't be "immune from criminal prosecution for alleged crimes that occurred while in office." A majority 46% also said they didn't trust the Supreme Court to issue a fair and non-partisan ruling of whether Trump would be immune from prosecution for actions related to the 2020 election and the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by his supporters.

President Joe Biden was reported to be holding a narrow lead over Trump in a separate national survey released by the Democratic super PAC Progress Action Fund, which was first shared with the Hill on Monday. Biden reportedly holds a 46% to 45% edge over Trump in the Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling's poll, though the two candidates are statistically tied as the polling falls within the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, according to the Hill.

A separate 9% of respondents said they weren't sure who they'd support in the upcoming 2024 presidential election, a rematch of the 2020 election in which Biden defeated Trump. Half of the respondents said they had an unfavorable opinion of Trump while 43% viewed him as favorable and 7% said they were unsure.

Last week, Trump was reported to have held a slight edge over Biden the first USA TODAY poll released after both officially secured their respective parties' nominations. Trump reportedly held a 40% to 38% advantage among respondents who were asked whom they would vote for if the presidential election were held today.

Additionally, one in four respondents said they could possibly change their minds about their current choice once the election takes place in November, which includes 14% of current Biden voters and 15% of current Trump voters. The poll included 1,000 registered voters and was conducted by landline and/or cell phone between March 8-11.

Biden did, however, see an increase in Americans reporting green shoots in the economy, which was the most positive assessment since the beginning of his presidency. Last month, an NBC News poll showed Trump had a significant advantage over Biden in terms of which candidate would better handle the economy and immigration.

Trump reportedly has a lead greater than 20 points in relation to handling the economy and a more than 30-point advantage on handling immigration. The former president also has a 16-point lead over Biden in relation to being competent and effective, a change from the 2020 election when Biden had a 9-point edge in a poll conducted prior to winning the election.

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