New Poll Shows Small Gap Between Trump, Biden In Key Swing States

By Jason Hall

April 30, 2024

Photo: Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump is reported to hold a small lead over President Joe Biden in several crucial swing states, according to the latest Emerson College Polling/the Hill poll published on Tuesday (April 30).

Trump is reported to be leading Biden by a 48% to 44% margin in Arizona (8% undecided); 47% to 44% in Georgia (9% undecided); 45% to 44% in Michigan (11% undecided); 45% to 44% in Nevada (11% undecided); 47% to 42% in North Carolina (10% undecided); 47% to 45% in Pennsylvania (8% undecided); and 47% to 45% in Wisconsin (8%) undecided. Biden had previously won all of the states included in the poll, except North Carolina, during the 2020 presidential election.

“The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and The Hill started tracking them last November,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “The share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."

“Independent voters break for Trump over Biden in Arizona (48%-38%), Michigan (44%-35%), Nevada (43%-37%), Pennsylvania (49%-33%), and North Carolina (41%-38%). However they break for Biden over Trump in Georgia (42%-38%) and Wisconsin (44%-41%),” Kimball added.

Biden is also reported to have lost support in Georgia (45% to 39%), Nevada (42% to 37%), North Carolina 46% to 37%), Pennsylvania (45% to 41%) and Wisconsin (45% to 40%), though facing the same deficit against Trump in Arizona (4%) and Michigan (1%), when third-party candidates are included on the ballot, according to the poll.

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